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Darwin Among the Machines by George Dyson
Ada Lovelace, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, British Empire, carbon-based life, cellular automata, Claude Shannon: information theory, combinatorial explosion, computer age, Danny Hillis, Donald Davies, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, finite state, IFF: identification friend or foe, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Menlo Park, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, packet switching, pattern recognition, phenotype, RAND corporation, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, spectrum auction, strong AI, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture, zero-sum game
., Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata (Urbana: Universsity of Illinois Press, 1966), 75. 36.John von Neumann, “Defense in Atomic War,” Journal of the American Ordnance Association (1955): 22; reprinted in John von Neumann, Theory of Games, Astrophysics, Hydrodynamics and Meteorology, vol. 6 of Collected Works (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1963), 524. 37.von Neumann, “Defense in Atomic War” (1955), 23; (1963), 525. 38.RAND Articles of Incorporation, 1948, in The RAND Corporation: The First Fifteen Years (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1963). 39.Contract of 2 March 1946 establishing project RAND; in Bruce Smith, The RAND Corporation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966), 30. 40.A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1955; reprint. New York: Free Press, 1966), xii (page citation is to the reprint edition). 41.Louis Ridenour and Francis Clauser, Preliminary Design of an Experimental Earth-Circling Spaceship, U.S. Air Force Project RAND Report SM-11827, 2 May 1946, 2, 16. 42.RAND, The RAND Corporation, 23. 43.Paul Baran, interview by Judy O’Neill, 5 March 1990, OH 182, Charles Babbage Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. 44.J.
Chester, Cost of a Hardened, Nationwide Buried Cable Network, RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-2627-PR, 1 October 1960. 45.Baran, interview. 46.Ibid. 47.Paul Baran, Summary Overview, vol. 11 of On Distributed Communications, RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-3767-PR, August 1964, 1. 48.Paul Baran, “Packet Switching,” in John C. McDonald, ed., Fundamentals of Digital Switching, 2d ed. (New York: Plenum Publishing, 1990), 204. 49.Baran, interview. 50.Paul Baran, Reliable Digital Communications Systems Utilizing Unreliable Network Repeater Nodes, RAND Corporation Memorandum P-1995, 27 May 1960, 1–2. 51.Baran, Digital Communications Systems, 7. 52.Paul Baran, History, Alternative Approaches, and Comparisons, vol. 5 of On Distributed Communications, RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-3097-PR, August 1964, 8. 53.Warren S.
., New York: John Wiley, 1947), 2 (page citation is to the 2d edition). 3.Loren Eiseley, Darwin’s Century (New York: Doubleday, 1958), 39. 4.André-Marie Ampère, Considérations sur la théorie mathématique du jeu (Lyons, France: Frères Perisse, 1802), 3. (Author’s translation.) 5.Jacob Marschak, “Neumann’s and Morgenstern’s New Approach to Static Economics,” Journal of Political Economy 54, no. 2 (April 1946): 114. 6.J. D. Williams, The Compleat Strategyst (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1954), 216. 7.John Nash, Parallel Control, RAND Corporation Research Memorandum RM-1361, 27 August 1954, 14. 8.John von Neumann, “A Model of General Economic Equilibrium,” Review of Economic Studies 13 (1945): 1. 9.John von Neumann, The Computer and the Brain (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1958), 79–82. 10.John von Neumann, 1948, “General and Logical Theory of Automata,” in Lloyd A. Jeffress, ed., Cerebral Mechanisms in Behavior: The Hixon Symposium (New York: Hafner, 1951), 24. 11.Stan Ulam, quoted by Gian-Carlo Rota, “The Barrier of Meaning,” Letters in Mathematical Physics 10 (1985): 99. 12.von Neumann, “Automata,” 24. 13.Stan Ulam, quoted by Rota, “The Barrier of Meaning,” 98. 14.D.
Narconomics: How to Run a Drug Cartel by Tom Wainwright
Airbnb, barriers to entry, bitcoin, business process, call centre, collateralized debt obligation, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, failed state, financial innovation, illegal immigration, Mark Zuckerberg, microcredit, price mechanism, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Skype
Look at the evolution of the price of a kilogram of the drug, as it makes its way from the Andes to Los Angeles. To make that much cocaine, one needs somewhere in the neighborhood of 350 kilograms of dried coca leaves. Based on price data from Colombia obtained by Gallego and Rico, that would cost about $385. Once this is converted into a kilo of cocaine, it can sell in Colombia for $800. According to figures pulled together by Beau Kilmer and Peter Reuter at the RAND Corporation, an American think tank, that same kilo is worth $2,200 by the time it is exported from Colombia, and it has climbed to $14,500 by the time it is imported to the United States. After being transferred to a midlevel dealer, its price climbs to $19,500. Finally, it is sold by street-level dealers for $78,000.10 Even these soaring figures do not quite get across the scale of the markups involved in the cocaine business.
The evidence is that they charge quite reasonable prices for doing so: witnesses say that the New York mafia’s fee for fixing prices in the concrete industry was only 2 percent of the contract price; in Sicily, the construction industry reportedly paid 5 percent to the mafia (of which it kept 3 percent and used the remaining 2 percent to pay bribes to politicians). If the price-fixing agreement means that a firm can jack up its rates substantially, these fees are well worth it. (And it seems they can: a study in the 1980s by the RAND Corporation found that residential customers on Long Island were paying 15 percent more for their garbage collection than they would in a competitive market, and commercial customers were paying 50 percent more.)12 The agreements were so robust that garbage-collection firms were even able to buy and sell “contracts” to serve particular customers or neighborhoods, with the exclusive rights guaranteed by the mafia.
If Signor Pucci were around today and involved in the drugs business, the “multi-commodity drug broker” is surely the one to whom he would want to marry his daughter. Occupying the very middle of the network, these middlemen are the best-connected people in the business. Furthermore, acting as the link between the wholesalers and the retailers, they have a high degree of “betweenness centrality.” The findings of the Home Office report seem to agree with other studies on pricing in the drugs business. The RAND Corporation found that the single-biggest leap in the price of cocaine in the United States occurs during the transfer from middle dealers to retailers, when the price of a kilo shoots up from $19,500 to $78,000.10 If the police are to focus their energies in one place, it may be that they cause the most disruption not by targeting the small fry on the streets, or even the big fish doing the importation, but instead by aiming squarely at the middle, where the dealers are the best connected and, it seems, making the most money.
Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren't Fair (And What We Can Do About It) by William Poundstone
affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Debian, desegregation, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, Everything should be made as simple as possible, global village, guest worker program, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, invisible hand, jimmy wales, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, manufacturing employment, Nash equilibrium, Paul Samuelson, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prisoner's dilemma, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, slashdot, the map is not the territory, Thomas Bayes, transcontinental railway, Unsafe at Any Speed, Y2K
Black himself must have written the jacket copy: "Whatever the merits or demerits of the book, it can safely be said that there is no other which has at+ tempted to deal with this subject." Black was not entirely out of the loop. In December 1948 the RAND Corporation's Joseph Goldsen wrote Black that "a group of 52 The Big Bang American mathematicians and political scientists" were interested in his work and would appreciate receiving offprints. Black had never heard of the RAND Corporation. He checked it out with the British Consul in San Francisco, An official informed him that "the activities of the Rand Corporation are highly classified" and the "United States Air Force would much prefer that, if you decided to respond to Mr. Goldsen's enquiry, it should be communicated to the Corporation through themselves." Black must have decided he wanted nothing to do with the RAND Corporation and its highly classified activities. He never replied to Goldsen. For the past half century scholars and journalists have struggled to understand what the impossibility theorem means.
Center for Legislative Archives) To Scott Contents Prologue: The Wizard and the Lizard 3 THE PROBLEM 25 I. Game Theory Kurt Code! • Adolf Hitler· Albert Einstein· Oskar Morgenstern· Bambi· the u.s. Constitution· Joseph Goebbels • God· Kaiser Wilhelm II • John von Neumann" Kenneth Arrow" J\'larxism • Alfred Tarski • intransitivity· Harold Hotelling· ice cream· John Hicks· "Scissors, Paper. Stone" • Duncan Black· the "forty-seven-year-old wife of a machinist liVing in Dayton. Ohio" • the RAND Corporation· Condoleezzrl Rice· Olaf Helmer· Harry Truman· Joseph Stalin· Abram Bergson 2. The Big Bang Michelle Kwan • the Great Flip.Flop • 45 Repuhlicans • Democrats • Communists· Sidney Morgenbesser • irrelevant alternatives" /\.'tichelangelo • Joe McCarthy • Winston Churchill • Wooclrow Wilson· Boss Tweed· Amartya Sen Contents 3. A Short History of Vote Splitting 59 Spoilers· the electoral college· James Polk· Henry Clay· James Birney· cholera· Zachary Taylor· Martin Van Buren· Lewis Cass • Abraham Lincoln· Stephen Douglas • John Breckinridge • John Bell • James Blaine • moral values • temperate Republican women • Grover Cleveland • John St.
The presidential candidate who captures her vote will win the election. There is nothing too mysterious about this. The median voter, like everyone else, favors the candidate whose views are closest to her own. This means that the candidate who captures the center will win a two-way race. Six years Into his peripatetic career as grad student, Arrow accepted an unusual job. He agreed to go to California to think about nuclear doomsday. The RAND Corporation was the greatest monument to von Neumann's-and Morgenstern's-game theory. RAND began as the air force's Project RAND (for Research ANd Development), a scientific consultancy initially contracted to Douglas Aircraft. Conceived as a peacetime Manhattan Project, RAND was recruiting many of the nation's best minds to ponder the challenges of the nuclear age. 41 GAMING THE VOTE Arrow heard about RAND from his wife's former employer, Abe Girschick.
On Thermonuclear War by Herman Kahn
In spite of the elaborate in-house capabilities, the Army and Air Force still contract out with private agencies to do the special kind of long-range planning and the analyses that we have been discussing. The Army's contracts are with the Operations Research Office (Johns Hopkins), Stanford Research Institute, and others. The Air Force contracts are with The RAND Corporation, Anser, Institute of Air Weapons Research, Mitre Corporation, and others. The RAND Corporation, with which I have been for some years, is the largest and possibly the most prestigious of these organizations. It has over 900 employees, approximately two-thirds of whom have technical backgrounds. Its Air Force budget runs to some $13,000,000 annually. In spite of its size and expense the RAND Corporation has no formal staff responsibilities. Only a small percentage of the studies undertaken at the organization are created "to order" and must meet deadlines imposed from outside. In essence, RAND researchers have access to every level and every part of the Air Force, yet nobody has to act on their advice and they do not (usually) have to research exactly what outsiders think they want at the moment.
It is with the hope of decreasing the probability of catastrophe and alleviating the consequences of thermonuclear war if it comes that I offer these pages to all with the interest—and the courage—to read them. Herman Kahn Princeton, New Jersey June 10, 1960 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Concepts on which these three lectures are based originated in work done under the auspices of The RAND Corporation and continued at The Center of International Studies at Princeton University while I was on leave of absence from RAND. While many of the things that I discuss grew out of studies done by The RAND Corporation, the presentation and synthesis are my own. I accept full responsibility for them. However, I owe a tremendous debt to many friends and colleagues—so many that it would be impossible for me to identify them all. I will content myself with mentioning some of the major debts. In particular, I owe a good deal to early work done by E.
Digby in air defense, by Bernard Brodie in the general field of strategic planning, by Jack Hirshleifer on civil defense, and by Albert Wohlstetter, Frederic Hoffman, and H. S. Rowen on survival of strategic forces. Much of Lecture I, parts of Lecture II, and the Appendix derive from joint effort devoted to a RAND Corporation civil defense study which I led. This study is reported in RAND Report R-322-RC, A Report on a Study of Non-Military Defense, July 1,1958. Because so much of the book is based on the findings of this study, I would like to repeat here some remarks that prefaced the report on that study: The study . . . [was] supported by The RAND Corporation as part of its program of RAND-sponsored research. In addition to its work for the United States Air Force and other government agencies, the Corporation regularly sponsors, with its own funds, research projects in areas of importance to national security and public welfare.
complexity theory, computer age, Computer Numeric Control, four colour theorem, index card, John von Neumann, linear programming, NP-complete, p-value, RAND corporation, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, traveling salesman, Turing machine
In the words of Alan Hoffman and Philip Wolfe, Whitney served “possibly as a messenger from Menger” in bringing the salesman to the mathematics community.23 And on to the RAND Corporation There is not a record of the study of the salesman problem, under the TSP name, in the late 1930s and into the 1940s, but by the end of the 1940s it had become a known challenge. At this point the center of TSP action had moved from Princeton to RAND, coinciding with Flood’s relocation to California. Princeton University’s Harold Kuhn writes the following in a December 2008 e-mail letter. The traveling salesman problem was known by name around Fine Hall by 1949. For instance, it was one of a number of problems for which the RAND corporation offered a money prize. I believe that the list was posted on a bulletin board in Fine Hall in the academic year 1948–49.
QA164.C69 2012 511’.5—dc23 2011030626 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Minion Printed on acid-free paper ∞ Typeset by S R Nova Pvt Ltd, Bangalore, India Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Listen, mate, I’ve traveled every road in this here land. —Geoff Mack, Lyrics to “I’ve Been Everywhere.” Contents Preface xi 1 Challenges 1 Tour of the United States 2 An Impossible Task? 6 One Problem at a Time 10 Road Map of the Book 16 2 Origins of the Problem 19 Before the Mathematicians 19 Euler and Hamilton 27 Vienna to Harvard to Princeton 35 And on to the RAND Corporation 38 A Statistical View 39 3 The Salesman in Action 44 Road Trips 44 Mapping Genomes 49 Aiming Telescopes, X-rays, and Lasers Guiding Industrial Machines 53 Organizing Data 56 Tests for Microprocessors 59 Scheduling Jobs 60 And More 60 4 Searching for a Tour 62 The 48-States Problem 62 Growing Trees and Tours 65 Alterations While You Wait 75 Borrowing from Physics and Biology The DIMACS Challenge 91 Tour Champions 92 51 84 viii Contents 5 Linear Programming 94 General-Purpose Model 94 The Simplex Algorithm 99 Two for the Price of One: LP Duality 105 The Degree LP Relaxation of the TSP 108 Eliminating Subtours 113 A Perfect Relaxation 118 Integer Programming 122 Operations Research 125 6 Cutting Planes 127 The Cutting-Plane Method 127 A Catalog of TSP Inequalities 131 The Separation Problem 137 Edmonds’s Glimpse of Heaven 142 Cutting Planes for Integer Programming 144 7 Branching 146 Breaking Up 146 The Search Party 148 Branch-and-bound for Integer Programming 8 Big Computing 153 World Records 153 The TSP on a Grand Scale 163 9 Complexity 168 A Model of Computation 169 The Campaign of Jack Edmonds 171 Cook’s Theorem and Karp’s List 174 State of the TSP 178 Do We Need Computers?
By an ingenious application of linear programming—a mathematical tool recently used to solve production-scheduling problems—it took only a few weeks for the California experts to calculate “by hand” the shortest route to cover the 49 cities: 12,345 miles. The California experts were George Dantzig, Ray Fulkerson, and Selmer Johnson, part of an exceptionally strong and influential center for the new field of mathematical programming, housed at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica. The RAND team’s guarantee involves some pretty mathematics that we take up later in the book. For now it is best to think of the guarantee as a proof, like those we learned in geometry class. The Dantzig et al. proof establishes that no tour through the 49 cities can have length less than 12,345 miles. Matching the proof with their tour of precisely this length shows that this particular instance of the TSP has been settled, once and for all.
Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order by Parag Khanna
Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, call centre, capital controls, central bank independence, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, complexity theory, continuation of politics by other means, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, flex fuel, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global supply chain, haute couture, Hernando de Soto, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, Islamic Golden Age, Khyber Pass, knowledge economy, land reform, low skilled workers, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, Monroe Doctrine, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, open economy, Parag Khanna, Pax Mongolica, Pearl River Delta, pirate software, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, Potemkin village, price stability, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, South China Sea, special economic zone, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Thomas L Friedman, trade route, trickle-down economics, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce
Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005. ———. Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002. Oliker, Olga, and David A. Shlapak. U.S. Interests in Central Asia: Policy Priorities and Military Roles. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2005. Oliker, Olga, and Tanya Charlick-Paley. Assessing Russia’s Decline: Trends and Implications for the United States and the U.S. Air Force. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2002. Organski, A.F.K. World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1968. Pape, Robert A. Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. New York: Random House, 2005. Pastor, Robert A. A Century’s Journey: How the Great Powers Shape the World. New York: Basic Books, 1999. Patten, Chris. Cousins and Strangers: America, Britain, and Europe in a New Century.
East Meets West: Human Rights and Democracy in East Asia. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2000. Bergsten, C. Fred, Bates Gill, Nicholas Lardy, and Derek Mitchell. China: The Balance Sheet—What the World Needs to Know Now About the Emerging Superpower. New York: Public Affairs, 2006. Bernard, Cheryl. Civil, Democratic Islam: Partners, Resources, and Strategies. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2003. Birdsall, Nancy, and Augusto de la Torre. Washington Contentious: Economic Policies for Social Equity in Latin America. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Inter-American Dialogue, 2001. Blank, Stephen. After Two Wars: Reflections on the American Strategic Revolution in Central Asia. Carlisle, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2005.
.: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, World Bank, 2004. de Soto, Hernando. The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else. New York: Basic Books, 2003. Diamond, Jared. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Penguin, 2004. Dobbins, James. The UN’s Role in Nation-Building: From the Congo to Iraq. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2005. Dominguez, Jorge I., and Byung Cook Kim, eds. Between Compliance and Conflict: Between East Asia, Latin America, and the “New” Pax Americana. New York: Routlege, 2005. Doyle, Michael. Empires. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1986. Drakuli, Slavenka. Café Europa: Life After Communism. London: Penguin, 1996. Dresch, Paul, and James Piscatori, eds. Monarchies and Nations: Globalization and Identity in the Arab States of the Gulf.
From Airline Reservations to Sonic the Hedgehog: A History of the Software Industry by Martin Campbell-Kelly
Apple II, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, business process, card file, computer age, computer vision, continuous integration, deskilling, Donald Knuth, Grace Hopper, information asymmetry, inventory management, John Markoff, John von Neumann, linear programming, Menlo Park, Network effects, popular electronics, RAND corporation, Robert X Cringely, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, software patent, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions
In the absence of a private-sector contractor willing to take on the programming challenge, the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit government-owned research organization, was given the task. RAND (a contraction of “research and development”) had been incorporated in Santa Monica in 1948 as a “think tank” to provide the Air Force with research studies in the “techniques of air warfare,” a spectrum of activities that ranged from secure communications to psychological studies of man-machine systems. RAND had already been involved with SAGE, training Air Force personnel for the Cape Cod system, and that activity continued alongside programming throughout RAND’s 8 years of involvement with the SAGE project. In December 1955, the RAND Corporation created an autonomous Systems Development Division to undertake the programming work.
The software firms’ competencies and their knowledge of their specialized markets enabled the more successful firms to maintain dominant positions in their own sector but made it difficult for them to cross over into either of the other sectors. Thus, the very strengths that The Software Industry 5 enabled a firm to succeed in one market segment became institutional rigidities in another. This is the main reason why few firms have successfully escaped the confines of their particular sector.12 Software Contractors The defining event for the software contracting industry came in 1956, when the US-government-owned RAND Corporation created the Systems Development Corporation (SDC) to develop the computer programs for the huge SAGE air defense project. This was the first of several multi-billion-dollar defense projects in the 1950s and the 1960s, known as the L-Systems, that provided an important market for early software contractors. At the same time, computer manufacturers and private corporations were also creating a demand for software, albeit on a smaller scale.
A set of binary-to-decimal and decimalto-binary conversion programs were needed at every installation, and most people wrote their own.”9 According to a joke of the day, “there were 17 customers with 701s and 18 different assembly programs.”10 This duplication of effort, unavoidable during the early learning period, clearly was untenable in the long run. Some form of cooperative association, it was felt, might alleviate the problem. The idea of a cooperative association was first proposed by R. Blair Smith, a 701 sales manager in IBM’s Santa Monica sales office.11 Smith had sold 701s to the RAND Corporation and to the Douglas Aircraft Company, and their early experiences had left him “afraid that the cost of programming would rise to the point where users would have difficulty in justifying the total cost of computing.”12 Before joining IBM, Smith had been an accounting machine manager and a founder of the Los Angeles chapter of the National Machine Accountants Association, which seemed to him an appropriate model for a computer user group.
America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy by Francis Fukuyama
affirmative action, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, European colonialism, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Internet Archive, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus
Wolfowitz on two occasions, first at the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and later at the State Department; he was also responsible for recruiting me to come to the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies while he was dean there. I worked with his mentor Albert Wohlstetter at the latter's consulting firm, Pan Heuristics, and like him was an analyst for several years at the Rand Corporation. I was a student of Allan Bloom, himself a stu- Preface dent of Leo Strauss and the author of The Closing of the American Mind. I was a classmate of William Kristol in graduate school and wrote frequently for the two magazines founded by his father, Irving Kristol, The National Interest and The Public Interest, as well as for Commentary magazine. And yet, unlike many other neoconservatives, I was never persuaded of the rationale for the Iraq war.
ALBERT WOHLSTETTER Leo Strauss said virtually nothing about foreign policy, however much students or students of students may have sought to translate his philosophical ideas into policies. The same cannot be said for Albert Wohlstetter, on the other hand, who was the teacher of Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Zalmay Khalilzad, and other people in or close to the Bush administration. Wohlstetter was a mathematical logician who worked at the Rand Corporation in its glory days in the 1950s and later taught The Neoconservative Legacy at the University of Chicago. His career was marked by a longstanding concern with two central issues. The first was the problem of extended deterrence. Wohlstetter argued against the belief, promoted in early Cold War days by strategists like the French general Pierre Galois, that a minimum nuclear deterrent would be a cheap and effective form of national defense.
It is perhaps not an accident that MacArthur lived in East Asia almost continuously from the time he helped establish the Philippine Army in the 1930s until his recall by President Truman during the Korean War. 16. See Francis Fukuyama, "The March of Equality," Journal of Democracy 11, no. 1 (2000): 11-17. 17. Albert Wohlstetter, Henry S. Rowen, et al., Selection and Use of Strategic Air Bases (Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Corporation, R-266, 1954). A shorter version was published as "The Delicate Balance of Terror" in Foreign Affairs 2 7, no. 2 (Jan. 1959). 18. Henry A. Kissinger,/4 World Restored: Europe After Napoleon (Gloucester, Mass.: Peter Smith, 1973); Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994). 19. This was true of Strauss's students as well; it is even harder to extract an economic ideology from his writings than a political one. 20.
Where Wizards Stay Up Late: The Origins of the Internet by Katie Hafner, Matthew Lyon
air freight, Bill Duvall, computer age, conceptual framework, Donald Davies, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, fault tolerance, Hush-A-Phone, information retrieval, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, natural language processing, packet switching, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, Steve Crocker, Steven Levy
In the relatively mundane capacity of technician, he tested parts for radio tubes and germanium diodes on the first commercial computer—the UNIVAC. Baran soon married, and he and his wife moved to Los Angeles, where he took a job at Hughes Aircraft working on radar data processing systems. He took night classes at UCLA on computers and transistors, and in 1959 he received a master’s degree in engineering. Baran left Hughes in late 1959 to join the computer science department in the mathematics division at the RAND Corporation while continuing to take classes at UCLA. Baran was ambivalent, but his advisor at UCLA, Jerry Estrin, urged him to continue his studies toward a doctorate. Soon a heavy travel schedule was forcing him to miss classes. But it was finally divine intervention, he said, that sparked his decision to abandon the doctoral work. “I was driving one day to UCLA from RAND and couldn’t find a single parking spot in all of UCLA nor the entire adjacent town of Westwood,” Baran recalled.
Although DARPA couldn’t provide financial support, the agency sent Bob Kahn to the meeting as an advisor. NSF, which had raised the academic network issue five years earlier, sent Kent Curtis, the head of its computer research division. After the meeting, Landweber spent the summer working with Peter Denning from Purdue, Dave Farber from the University of Delaware, and Tony Hearn who had recently left the University of Utah for the RAND Corporation, to flesh out a detailed proposal for the new network. Their proposal called for a network open to computer science researchers in academia, government, and industry. The underlying medium would be a commercial service provider like TELENET. Because CSNET would be using slower links than those used by the ARPANET, and did not insist on redundant linkages, the system would be far less expensive.
Journal, Magazine, and Newspaper Articles Abramson, Norman. “Development of the Alohanet.” IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, January 1985. Anderson, Christopher. “The Accidental Superhighway.” The Economist, 1 July 1995. Baran, Paul. “On Distributed Communications Networks.” IEEE Transactions on Communications Systems, 1 March 1964. ———.“Reliable Digital Communications Systems Using Unreliable Network Repeater Nodes.” RAND Corporation Mathematics Division Report No. P-1995, 27 May 1960. Boggs, David R., John F. Shoch, Edward A. Taft, and Robert M. Metcalfe. “PUP: An Internetwork Architecture.” IEEE Transactions on Communications, April 1980. “Bolt Beranek Accused by Government of Contract Overcharges.” Dow Jones News Service–Wall Street Journal combined stories, 27 October 1980. “Bolt Beranek and Newman: Two Aides Plead Guilty to U.S.
The Curse of Cash by Kenneth S Rogoff
Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cashless society, central bank independence, cryptocurrency, debt deflation, distributed ledger, Edward Snowden, ethereum blockchain, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, financial exclusion, financial intermediation, financial repression, forward guidance, frictionless, full employment, George Akerlof, German hyperinflation, illegal immigration, inflation targeting, informal economy, interest rate swap, Isaac Newton, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, large denomination, liquidity trap, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, moveable type in China, New Economic Geography, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, payday loans, price stability, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, RFID, savings glut, secular stagnation, seigniorage, The Great Moderation, the payments system, transaction costs, unbanked and underbanked, unconventional monetary instruments, underbanked, unorthodox policies, Y2K, yield curve
Speech presented to the Swedish House of Finance, January 23. Available at http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Tal/Jochnick/2015/tal_af_jochnick_150123_eng.pdf. Johnson, Boris. 2013. 2020 Vision: The Greatest City on Earth: Ambitions for London (June). City Hall, London: London Greater Authority. Johnson, Patrick B. 2014. “Countering ISIL’s Financing.” The RAND Corporation Testimony Series. Testimony presented before the House Financial Services Committee on November 13. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Jost, Patrick M., and Harjit Singh Sandbu. 2000. “Hawala: The Hawala Alternative Remittance System and Its Role in Money Laundering.” Prepared by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network of the United States Department of Treasury in cooperation with INTERPOL/FOPAC. Judson, Ruth. 2012. “Crisis and Calm: Demand for U.S. Currency at Home and Abroad from the Fall of the Berlin Wall to 2011.”
The basic takeaway from these studies is that the cash consumers admit to holding can account for perhaps 5–10% of the total currency supply.5 We begin with the United States and then look at Europe and Canada. The United States The two important sources of data on US consumer cash holdings are the “Survey of Consumer Payment Choice” and the “Diary of Consumer Payment Choice.”6 The first is an annual survey conducted by the Federal Reserve that makes use of the RAND Corporation’s “American Life Panel” survey respondents. The second is a consumer diary project (where consumers are asked to keep diaries, something akin to the Nielsen diaries for rating TV shows). It gives a more detailed snapshot of consumer holdings of cash, but so far only for the month of October 2012.7 Nevertheless, the diary snapshot is especially valuable, because, in addition to answering questions on total currency held on person (e.g., wallet, pocket, and purse) and on property (e.g., home and car), respondents were also asked the denominations of the notes they held.
Although there do not seem to be any aggregate statistics on cash seizures for the United States, I invite the reader to try online searching on the words “bust,” “cash,” “drugs,” or the like, to get an idea of the extent of the activity. Admittedly, the oft-quoted fact that some 90% of all US currency has traces of cocaine overstates the connection between drugs and cash. The contamination occurs in modern high-speed counting machines, including ATMs, where one bill can pollute a batch.32 The RAND Corporation has estimated the combined size of the market for four major illegal drugs in the United States to be more than $100 billion in 2010, with cocaine (including crack) $28 billion, heroin $27 billion, marijuana $41 billion, and methamphetamine (meth) $13 billion. This is only the footprint in the United States.33 The last attempt to do a comprehensive measure of the global drug market, by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime for the year 2003, came up with an estimate of $322 billion.
Bayesian statistics, bioinformatics, British Empire, Claude Shannon: information theory, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, double helix, Edmond Halley, Fellow of the Royal Society, full text search, Henri Poincaré, Isaac Newton, John Markoff, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, linear programming, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nate Silver, p-value, Pierre-Simon Laplace, placebo effect, prediction markets, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Ronald Reagan, speech recognition, statistical model, stochastic process, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, traveling salesman, Turing machine, Turing test, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War
Air Force Project Rand. RAND Corp. Jardini, David R. (1996) Out of the Blue Yonder: The RAND Corporation’s Diversification into Social Welfare Research, 1946–1968. Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University. Kaplan, Fred. (1983) The Wizards of Armageddon. Simon and Schuster. Madansky, Albert. (1964) Externally Bayesian Groups. RAND Corp. ———. (1990) Bayesian analysis with incompletely specified prior distributions. In Bayesian and Likelihood Methods in Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of George A. Barnard, ed. S. Geisser. North Holland. 423–36. Mangravite, Andrew. (spring 2006) Cracking Bert’s shell and loving the bomb. Chemical Heritage (24:1) 22. Smith, Bruce LR. (1966) The RAND Corporation: Case Study of a Nonprofit Advisory Corporation. Harvard University Press. U.S.
Yet at the same time, it solved practical questions that were unanswerable by any other means: the defenders of Captain Dreyfus used it to demonstrate his innocence; insurance actuaries used it to set rates; Alan Turing used it to decode the German Enigma cipher and arguably save the Allies from losing the Second World War; the U.S. Navy used it to search for a missing H-bomb and to locate Soviet subs; RAND Corporation used it to assess the likelihood of a nuclear accident; and Harvard and Chicago researchers used it to verify the authorship of the Federalist Papers. In discovering its value for science, many supporters underwent a near-religious conversion yet had to conceal their use of Bayes’ rule and pretend they employed something else. It was not until the twenty-first century that the method lost its stigma and was widely and enthusiastically embraced.
A friend told him, “Jerry, I’m so glad to see you.” Smiling, Cornfield replied, “That’s nothing compared to how happy I am to be able to see you.”13 As he was dying he said to his two daughters, “You spend your whole life practicing your humor for the times when you really need it.”14 9. there’s always a first time Bayes’ military successes were still Cold War secrets when Jimmie Savage visited the glamorous new RAND Corporation in the summer of 1957 and encouraged two young men to calculate a life-and-death problem: the probability that a thermonuclear bomb might explode by mistake. RAND was the quintessential Cold War think tank. Gen. Curtis E. LeMay, the commander of the Strategic Air Command (SAC), had helped start it in Santa Monica, California, 10 years earlier as “a gimmick” to cajole top scientists into applying operations research to long-range air warfare.1 But RAND, an acronym for Research ANd Development, considered itself a “university without students” and its 1,000-odd employees “defense intellectuals.”
The Computer Boys Take Over: Computers, Programmers, and the Politics of Technical Expertise by Nathan L. Ensmenger
barriers to entry, business process, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, deskilling, Donald Knuth, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Grace Hopper, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, job satisfaction, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, loose coupling, new economy, Norbert Wiener, pattern recognition, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, post-industrial society, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Shoshana Zuboff, sorting algorithm, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the market place, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thorstein Veblen, Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture, Y2K
SDC was the RAND Corporation spin-off responsible for developing the software for the U.S. Air Force’s Semi-Automated Ground Environment (SAGE) air-defense system. SAGE was perhaps the most ambitious and expensive of early cold war technological boondoggles. Comprised of a series of computerized tracking and communications centers, SAGE cost approximately $8 billion to develop and operate, and required the services of over two hundred thousand private contractors and military operators. A major component of the SAGE project was the real-time computers required to coordinate its vast, geographically dispersed network of observation and response centers. IBM was hired to develop the computers themselves but considered programming them to be too difficult. In 1955 the RAND Corporation took over software development.
In 1954, leaders in industry, government, and education gathered at Wayne State University for the Conference on Training Personnel for the Computing Machine Field. The goal was to discuss what Elbert Little, of the Wayne State Computational Laboratory, suggested was a “universal feeling” among industry leaders that there was “a definite shortage” of technically trained people in the computer field.12 This shortage, variously described by an all-star cast of scientists and executives from General Motors, IBM, the RAND Corporation, Bell Telephone, Harvard University, MIT, the Census Bureau, and the Office of Naval Research, as “acute,” “unprecedented,” “multiplying dramatically,” and “astounding compared to the [available] facilities,” represented a grave threat to the future of electronic computing. Already it was serious enough to demand a “cooperative effort” on the part of industry, government, and educational institutions to resolve.13 The proceedings of the Conference on Training Personnel for the Computing Machine Field provide the best data available on the state of the labor market in the electronic computer industry during its first decade.
Beginning with John von Neumann’s work on numerical meteorology in the late 1940s, computational models were increasingly being used to provide solutions—approximate solutions in many cases, but solutions nonetheless—to scientific problems that had previously been thought intractable.5 Over the course of the 1950s, in fields as diverse as economics, linguistics, physics, biology, ecology, psychology, and cognitive science, techniques and concepts drawn from computing promised dramatic new insights and capabilities.6 As was the case with Dijkstra, many of the most enthusiastic advocates of computer science had come from fields that had been transformed by the electronic computer. Computing was “as broad as our culture, as deep as interplanetary space,” declared Herbert Grosch, a former astronomer (and future president of the ACM).7 “Never before in the history of mankind” had there been a phenomenon of equal importance to “the pervasion of computers and computing into every other science field and discipline,” argued Paul Armer, the head of computing at the RAND Corporation (and another future ACM president). “We’ve always thought of mathematics as the queen of the sciences pervading every other field, but computing is going to go much farther than that.”8 For many of these pioneering computer scientists, not only was theirs a “real” scientific discipline, it was perhaps the scientific discipline. Even for those computer specialists whose professional aspirations were more commercial than academic, there were powerful incentives to encourage the establishment of an independent discipline of theoretical computer science.
A Beautiful Mind by Sylvia Nasar
Al Roth, Albert Einstein, Andrew Wiles, Brownian motion, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, experimental economics, fear of failure, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Conway, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, linear programming, lone genius, market design, medical residency, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, Paul Erdős, Paul Samuelson, prisoner's dilemma, RAND corporation, Ronald Coase, second-price auction, Silicon Valley, Simon Singh, spectrum auction, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, upwardly mobile, zero-sum game
Letter from John von Neumann, 1.54. 39. Kuhn, interview, 11.18.96. 40. Shapley, interview, 10.94. 12: The War of Wits 1. John McDonald, “The War of Wits,” Fortune (March 1951). 2. William Poundstone, Prisoner’s Dilemma, op. cit.; Fred Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, op. cit.; The RAND Corporation: The First Fifteen Years (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, November 1963) and 40th Year Anniversary (Santa Monica: RAND, 1963); John D. Williams, An Address, 6.21.50; Bruce L. R. Smith, The RAND Corporation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966); Bruno W. Augenstein, A Brief History of RANDs Mathematics Department and Some of Its Accomplishments (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, March 1993); Alexander M. Mood, “Miscellaneous Reminiscences,” Statistical Science, vol. 5, no. 1 (1990), pp. 40–41. 3.
The descriptions of Arrow’s contributions are taken from Mark Blaug, Great Economists Since Keynes (Totowa, N.J.: Barnes & Noble, 1985), pp. 6–9. 18. Kenneth Arrow, professor of economics, Stanford University, interview, 6.26.95. 19. McDonald, interview. 20. Richard Best, former manager of security, RAND Corporation, interview, 5.22.96. 21. Interviews with Alexander M. Mood, professor of mathematics, Universih of California at Irvine, former deputy director, mathematics department, RAND Corporation, 5.23.96, and Mario L. Juncosa, mathematician, RAND, 5.21.96 and 5.24.96. 22. Kaplan, op. cit., p. 51. 23. Bernice Brown, retired statistician, RAND, interview, 5.22.96. 24. Augenstein, interview. 25. Arrow, interview. 26. Chronicle of the Twentieth Century, op. cit., p. 667. 27. David Halberstam, The Fifties, op. cit. 28.
The paper, more substantial than most doctoral dissertations, was published in the Annals in 1950. Milnor also dazzled the department — and Nash — by winning the Putnam competition in his second semester at Princeton (in fact, he went on to win it two more times and was offered a Harvard scholarship).51 Nash was choosy about whom he would talk mathematics with. Melvin Peisakoff, another student who would later overlap with Nash at the RAND Corporation, recalled: “You couldn’t engage him in a long conversation. He’d just walk off in the middle. Or he wouldn’t respond at all. I don’t remember Nash having a conversation that came to a nice soft landing. I also don’t remember him ever having a conversation about mathematics. Even the full professors would discuss problems they were working on with other people.”52 On one occasion in the common room, however, Nash was sketching an idea when another graduate student got very interested in what he was saying and started to elaborate on the idea.53 Nash said, “Well, maybe I ought to write a Note for the Proceedings of the National Academy on this.”
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Haight Ashbury, impulse control, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, life extension, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stanislav Petrov, Stewart Brand, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche
Kissinger, Subject, Minutes of the Verification Panel Meeting Held August 9, 1973,” August 15, 1973 (TOP SECRET SENSITIVECODE WORD/declassified), NSA, p. 8. It was called QUICK COUNT: For information about the computer model, see N. D. Cohen, “The Quick Count System: A User’s Manual,” RAND Corporation, RM-4006-PR, April 1964. I learned about Quick Count from another report, one that was “designed to be of use to those who have only a rudimentary knowledge of targeting and the effects of nuclear weapons but who need a quick means of computing civil damage to Western Europe.” See “Aggregate Nuclear Damage Assessment Techniques Applied to Western Europe,” H. Avrech and D. C. McGarvey, RAND Corporation, Memorandum RM-4466-ISA, Prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense/International Security Affairs, June 1965 (FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY/declassified). Between pages 19 and 23, you will find a guide to potential blast mortalities in the twenty-four largest cities in Western Europe, derived using Quick Count.
“Analytical Support for the Joint Chiefs of Staff: The WSEG Experience, 1948–1976,” John Ponturo, Institute for Defense Analyses, International and Social Studies Division, IDA Study S-507, July 1979. “Assessing the Capabilities of Strategic Nuclear Forces: The Limits of Current Methods,” Bruce W. Bennett, N-1441-NA, RAND Corporation, June 1980. “Assessment Report: Titan II LGM 25 C, Weapon Condition and Safety,” Prepared for the Senate Armed Services Committee and House Armed Services Committee, May 1980. “Attack Warning: Better Management Required to Resolve NORAD Integration Deficiencies,” Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Defense, Committee on Appropriations, House of Representatives, United States General Accounting Office, July 1989. “The Ballistic Missile Decisions,” Robert L. Perry, RAND Corporation, October 1967. “Ballistic Missile Staff Course Study Guide,” 4315th Combat Crew Training Squadron, Strategic Air Command, Vandenberg Air Force Base, July 1, 1980.
If P1 = the population of a city before destruction, P2 = the population of a city after destruction, H1 = the number of housing units before destruction, H2 = the number of housing units after destruction, and F = the number of fatalities, then “the fully compensating increase in housing density,” could be expressed as a mathematical equation: Iklé was impressed by the amount of urban hardship and overcrowding that people could endure. But there were limits. The tipping point seemed to be reached when about 70 percent of a city’s homes were destroyed. That’s when people began to leave en masse and seek shelter in the countryside. Iklé’s dissertation attracted the attention of the RAND Corporation, and he was soon invited to join its social sciences division. Created in 1946 as a joint venture of the Army Air Forces and the Douglas Aircraft Company, Project RAND became one of America’s first think tanks, a university without students where scholars and Nobel laureates from a wide variety of disciplines could spend their days contemplating the future of airpower. The organization gained early support from General Curtis LeMay, whose training as a civil engineer had greatly influenced his military thinking.
A Curious Mind: The Secret to a Bigger Life by Brian Grazer, Charles Fishman
4chan, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Apple II, Asperger Syndrome, Bonfire of the Vanities, en.wikipedia.org, game design, Google Chrome, Howard Zinn, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, Norman Mailer, out of africa, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, the scientific method, Tim Cook: Apple
Cox: chief lobbyist for the National Rifle Association Steve Coz: former editor of National Enquirer Donald Cram: professor of chemistry at UCLA, Nobel laureate in chemistry Jim Cramer: investor, author, TV personality, host of CNBC’s Mad Money Clyde Cronkhite: criminal justice expert, former police chief of Santa Ana, former deputy police chief of Los Angeles Mark Cuban: investor, owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks Heidi Siegmund Cuda: journalist, former music critic for the Los Angeles Times Thomas Cummings: leading expert in designing high-performing organizations and strategic change at USC Marshall School of Business Fred Cuny: disaster relief specialist Mario Cuomo: governor of New York, 1983–1994 Alan Dershowitz: attorney, constitutional scholar, professor emeritus at Harvard Law School Donny Deutsch: advertising executive, TV personality Jared Diamond: evolutionary biologist, author, professor at UCLA, winner of the Pulitzer Prize Alfred “Fred” DiSipio: record promoter investigated during payola scandal DMX: musician, actor Thomas R. Donovan: former CEO of the Chicago Board of Trade Jack Dorsey: cofounder of Twitter, founder and CEO of Square Inc. Steve Drezner: specialist in systems analysis and military projects for RAND Corporation Ann Druyan: author and producer specializing in cosmology and popular science Marian Wright Edelman: founder and president of the Children’s Defense Fund Betty Edwards: author of Drawing on the Right Side of the Brain Peter Eisenhardt: astronomer, physicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory Paul Ekman: psychologist, pioneer in the study of emotions and their relation to facial expressions Anita Elberse: professor of business administration at Harvard Business School Eminem: musician, music producer, actor Selwyn Enzer: futurist, former director of USC Center for Futures Research Susan Estrich: lawyer, author, first female campaign manager of a major presidential campaign (for Michael Dukakis) Harold Evans: journalist, author, former editor of the Sunday Times, founded Condé Nast Traveler Ron W.
Beyoncé Knowles: musician, actress Christof Koch: neuroscientist and professor at California Institute of Technology, specializing in human consciousness Clea Koff: forensic anthropologist who worked with United Nations to reveal genocide in Rwanda Stephen Kolodny: attorney; practices family law Rem Koolhaas: architect, architectural theorist, professor at Harvard Graduate School of Design Jeff Koons: artist Jesse Kornbluth: journalist, editor of a cultural concierge service Richard Koshalek: former director of the Museum of Contemporary Art, Los Angeles Mark Kostabi: artist, composer Anna Kournikova: former professional tennis player Lawrence Krauss: theoretical physicist, cosmologist, professor at Arizona State University Steve Kroft: journalist, correspondent for CBS’s 60 Minutes William LaFleur: author, professor at the University of Pennsylvania, specializing in Japanese culture Steven Lamy: professor of international relations at the University of Southern California Lawrence Lawler: former special agent in charge of the Los Angeles field office of the FBI Nigella Lawson: journalist, author, food writer, TV host Sugar Ray Leonard: professional boxer who won world titles in five weight divisions Maria Lepowsky: anthropologist, professor at University of Wisconsin–Madison, lived with the indigenous people of a Papua New Guinea island Lawrence Lessig: activist for Internet freedom and Net neutrality, professor at Harvard Law School Cliff Lett: professional race car driver, designer of radio-controlled cars Robert A. Levine: former economist at RAND Corporation Ariel Levy: journalist, staff writer at New York magazine Dany Levy: founder of DailyCandy email newsletter Roy Lichtenstein: Pop artist John Liebeskind: former professor at UCLA, leading researcher in the study of pain and its relation to health Alan Lipkin: former special agent for the criminal investigation division of the IRS Margaret Livingstone: neurobiologist specializing in vision, professor at Harvard Medical School Tone Loc: musician, actor Elizabeth Loftus: cognitive psychologist and expert on human memory, professor at the University of California, Irvine Lisa Love: West Coast director for Vogue and Teen Vogue Jim Lovell: Apollo-era astronaut, commander of the crippled Apollo 13 mission Thomas Lovejoy: ecologist, professor at George Mason University, former assistant secretary for environmental and external affairs at the Smithsonian Institution, expert in tropical deforestation Malcolm Lucas: chief justice of the California Supreme Court, 1987–1996 Oliver Luckett: founder and CEO of social media content company the Audience Frank Luntz: political consultant and pollster Peter Maass: author and journalist who covers international affairs, war, and conflict Norman Mailer: author, playwright, filmmaker, journalist, cofounder of the Village Voice Sir John Major: prime minister of the United Kingdom, 1990–1997 Michael Malin: astronomer, designer, developer of cameras used to explore Mars P.
Army general Ned Preble: former executive, Synectics creative problem-solving methodology Ilya Prigogine: chemist, professor at the University of Texas at Austin, Nobel laureate in chemistry, author of The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature Prince: musician, music producer, actor Wolfgang Puck: chef, restaurateur, entrepreneur Pussy Riot: Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, the two members of the Russian feminist punk rock group who served time in prison Steven Quartz: philosopher, professor at California Institute of Technology, specializing in the brain’s value systems and how they interact with culture James Quinlivan: analyst at the RAND Corporation, specializing in introducing change and technology into large organizations William C. Rader: psychiatrist, administers stem cell injections for a variety of illnesses Jason Randal: magician, mentalist Ronald Reagan: president of the United States, 1981–1989 Sumner Redstone: media magnate, businessman, chairman of CBS, chairman of Viacom Judith Regan: editor, book publisher Eddie Rehfeldt: executive creative director for the communications firm Waggener Edstrom David Remnick: journalist, author, editor of the New Yorker, winner of the Pulitzer Prize David Rhodes: president of CBS News, former vice president of news for Fox News Matthieu Ricard: Buddhist monk, photographer, author of Happiness: A Guide to Developing Life’s Most Important Skill Condoleezza Rice: U.S. secretary of state, 2005–2009, former U.S. national security advisor, former provost at Stanford University, professor of political economy at the Stanford Graduate School of Business Frank Rich: journalist, author, former columnist for the New York Times, editor at large for New York magazine Michael Rinder: activist and former senior executive for the Church of Scientology International Richard Riordan: mayor of Los Angeles, 1993–2001, businessman Tony Robbins: life coach, author, motivational speaker Robert Wilson and Richard Hutton: criminal defense attorneys Brian L.
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Bernie Madoff, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, call centre, carried interest, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crowdsourcing, Emanuel Derman, housing crisis, I will remember that I didn’t make the world, and it doesn’t satisfy my equations, illegal immigration, Internet of things, late fees, mass incarceration, medical bankruptcy, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, new economy, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, price discrimination, quantitative hedge fund, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, Rubik’s Cube, Sharpe ratio, statistical model, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, working poor
Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet: Lily Dayton, “BMI May Not Be the Last Word on Health Risks, Some Experts Say,” Los Angeles Times, December 19, 2014, www.latimes.com/health/la-he-bmi-20141220-story.html. Keith Devlin, the mathematician: Keith Devlin, “Top 10 Reasons Why The BMI Is Bogus,” NPR, July 4, 2009, www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106268439. the $6 billion wellness industry: Rand Corporation, “Do Workplace Wellness Programs Save Employers Money?,” Rand Corporation Research Brief, 2013, www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/RB9700/RB9744/RAND_RB9744.pdf. “Here are the facts”: Joshua Love, “4 Steps to Implement a Successful Employee Wellness Program,” Forbes, November 28, 2012, www.forbes.com/sites/theyec/2012/11/28/4-steps-to-implement-a-successful-employee-wellness-program/.
The idea, as we’ve seen so many times, springs from good intentions. In fact, it is encouraged by the government. The Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, invites companies to engage workers in wellness programs, and even to “incentivize” health. By law, employers can now offer rewards and assess penalties reaching as high as 50 percent of the cost of coverage. Now, according to a study by the Rand Corporation, more than half of all organizations employing fifty people or more have wellness programs up and running, and more are joining the trend every week. There’s plenty of justification for wellness programs. If they work—and, as we’ll see, that’s a big “if”—the biggest beneficiary is the worker and his or her family. Yet if wellness programs help workers avoid heart disease or diabetes, employers gain as well.
Corinthian Colleges amounted to $3.5 billion: Tamar Lewin, “Government to Forgive Student Loans at Corinthian Colleges,” New York Times, June 8, 2015, www.nytimes.+com/+2015/+06/+09/+education/+us-+to-+forgive-+federal-+loans-+of-+corinthian-+college-+students.+html. investigators at CALDER/American Institutes: Rajeev Darolia, Cory Koedel, Paco Martorell, Katie Wilson, and Francisco Perez-Arce, “Do Employers Prefer Workers Who Attend For-Profit Colleges? Evidence from a Field Experiment,” RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2014, accessed January 9, 2016, www.rand.+org/+pubs/+working_+papers/+WR1054.+html. The top 20 percent of the population: William Domhoff, “Wealth, Income, and Power,” Who Rules America?, first posted September 2005, updated February 2013, accessed January 9, 2016, http://whorulesamerica.+net/+power/+wealth.+html. Gregory W. Cappelli: Josh Harkinson, “The Nation’s 10 Most Overpaid CEOs,” Mother Jones, July 12, 2012, www.motherjones.
The Generals: American Military Command From World War II to Today by Thomas E. Ricks
affirmative action, airport security, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, Columbine, continuation of politics by other means, cuban missile crisis, hiring and firing, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Yom Kippur War
“didn’t provide anything”: Franks, teleconference with journalists, August 2, 2004, 18. the variety of ways he had devised: Franks, American Soldier, 410. “basic grand strategy”: Franks, American Soldier, 340–41. “The October 2002 Centcom war plan”: “Final Report of the Independent Panel to Review DoD Detention Operations,” August 24, 2004, 11. “post conflict stabilization”: RAND Corporation, “Iraq: Translating Lessons into Future DoD Policies,” attachment to letter from James Thompson, president and chief executive officer, RAND Corporation, to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, February 7, 2005, 6. “There’s never been a combat operation”: Franks, American Soldier, 524. “I just think it’s interesting”: Franks teleconference, August 2, 2004, 16. “The guys who did well”: Telephone interview with American civilian official in Kabul who requested anonymity, December 2007.
This omission on his part became disastrous, because no one above him in the Bush Administration was focusing on the problem, either. In 2004, an official Pentagon review led by two former defense secretaries, James Schlesinger and Harold Brown, unambiguously concluded, “The October 2002 Centcom war plan presupposed that relatively benign stability and security operations would precede a handover to Iraq’s authorities.” The following year, the head of the RAND Corporation, hardly a hostile observer, would send a memorandum to Defense Secretary Rumsfeld stating that after extensive review of internal documents, his researchers had found that “post conflict stabilization and reconstruction were addressed only very generally, largely because of the prevailing view that the task would not be difficult.” At times, Franks’s account of his wars was just stunning.
MacFarland’s point is one not often made, but worth pausing over, because its implications are far-reaching. Imagine a U.S. military at the other extreme—tactically mediocre and manned with draftees. In such a circumstance, it is hard to imagine the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan being allowed to meander for years without serious strategic direction. A few reliefs might have broken the strategic logjam, but the vocabulary of accountability had been lost. In 2005, a RAND Corporation study of Army generalship referred not to “firings” or “relief for cause” but, vaguely, to “performance departures”—which could mean leaving voluntarily or not. Similarly, a fine essay by Col. George Reed on “toxic leadership” in the military analyzed the problem bravely but tiptoed around the obvious solution, saying only, rather tentatively, “If the behavior does not change, there are many administrative remedies available.”
Kill Chain: The Rise of the High-Tech Assassins by Andrew Cockburn
airport security, anti-communist, drone strike, Edward Snowden, friendly fire, Google Earth, license plate recognition, RAND corporation, risk/return, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, too big to fail
The Pentium III microprocessor: Information supplied by Dr. Herb Lin, National Research Council, March 1, 2013. This inherent problem was apparently lost on Cebrowski: Vice-Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski and John A. Garstka, “Net-Centric Warfare, Its Origin and Future,” Proceedings Magazine, U.S. Naval Institute, January 1998. Two Rand Corporation researchers: John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, eds., In Athena’s Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 1997). Their report, “Transforming Defense: National Security in the 21st Century”: Report of the National Defense Panel, “Power Projection,” December 1997. http://www.dod.gov/pubs/foi/administration_and_Management/other/902.pdf. Paul Van Riper, for example: Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper, Testimony before Procurement Subcommittee and Research and Development Subcommittee of the House National Security Committee, March 20, 1997.
The Soviets even coined a helpful catchphrase to describe this claimed ability to see everything, strike anything—the “military technical revolution”—and proclaimed their intention of producing their own versions. In no time, talk of this revolution was gathering momentum in U.S. military commentaries, largely thanks to assiduous promotion by an already legendary Pentagon official, Andrew Marshall. Trained as an economist, Marshall had spent his early career at the Rand Corporation, the famed Santa Monica–based think tank staffed with brilliant minds devising nuclear war strategies for the U.S. Air Force, which financed the undertaking. In retrospect it is clear that Rand’s core mission was to devise strategies justifying and whenever possible enhancing the air force budget. When, for example, the navy’s development of invulnerable ballistic-missile submarines threatened the air force’s strategic nuclear monopoly in the early 1960s, Rand quickly served up a rationale for a “counterforce” strategy.
This inherent problem was apparently lost on Cebrowski, who suggested that if every soldier and warplane was connected up like the Wal-Mart cash registers, an entire force could operate as a coordinated mechanism, identifying and destroying targets with maximum efficiency and discrimination. Jasons pondering how to block the Ho Chi Minh Trail back in the summer of 1966 would have caught on to the idea immediately. Unsurprisingly, the defense intelligentsia was quick to fall into line. Two Rand Corporation researchers, David Ronfeldt and John Arquilla, academic foot soldiers in the revolution in military affairs, popularized the notions of “cyberwar” and “netwar” as well as the catchy slogan “It takes a network to defeat a network.” Meanwhile, politicians were getting in on the act. In 1996 Senators Joseph Lieberman and Dan Coats sponsored a National Defense Panel as a forum to advance “the revolution in military affairs.”
What We Say Goes: Conversations on U.S. Power in a Changing World by Noam Chomsky, David Barsamian
banking crisis, British Empire, Doomsday Clock, failed state, feminist movement, Howard Zinn, informal economy, liberation theology, mass immigration, microcredit, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Thomas L Friedman, union organizing, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus
There is a new study just done by a couple of major terrorism specialists, Peter Bergen and others, and their estimate is that what they call “the Iraq effect”—the effect of the Iraq war on terrorism—has been a “sevenfold increase in the yearly rate of fatal jihadist attacks,” focused particularly on regions and populations that have been involved in the invasion, “amounting to literally hundreds of additional terrorist attacks and thousands of civilian lives lost.”12 That’s quite an increase. It’s a long, careful, important study, using the Rand Corporation database.13 I haven’t seen anything about the report in the mainstream press. You can also see this short-term thinking right now in the case of Iran. I don’t know if the Bush administration is planning to invade, but in order to achieve a short-term gain in domestic political power and shifting attention away from their catastrophe in Iraq, war planners may trap themselves into invading, with consequences that are unimaginable.
In a demonstration of their military capacity, the Chinese recently shot down one of their own anti-satellite systems.19 Afterward, there was a big hubbub: China is starting the Cold War, they’re a major threat, and so on. All this is totally predictable. I wrote about the possibility of this happening years ago—not because I have any insight, I was just quoting the major strategic analysts. You can read about it in Hegemony or Survival.20 I quoted the Rand Corporation, leading military figures, and so on, all of whom pointed out the obvious, that other countries regard what we call “missile defense” as a first-strike weapon. A missile shield could never impede a first strike, but it could conceivably impede a retaliatory strike. So if you have a functioning missile defense system, and the adversary has no way around it, they’re going to understand it as a first-strike weapon.
Foreign Policy and Human Rights Violations in Latin America: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Aid Distributions,” Comparative Politics 13, no. 2 (January 1981), pp. 155, 157. 10 For discussion, see Chomsky, Hegemony or Survival, pp. 52–53. 11 Alfredo Molano, Dispossessed: Chronicles of the Desterrados of Colombia, trans. Daniel Bland (Chicago: Haymarket Books, 2005), see foreword by Aviva Chomsky. 12 See C. Peter Rydell and Susan S. Everingham, Controlling Cocaine: Supply Versus Demand Programs, Rand Corporation (2004), online at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR331/index2.html. 13 Hugh O’Shaughnessy and Sue Branford, Chemical Warfare in Colombia: The Costs of Coca Fumigation (London: Latin America Bureau, 2005), p. 120, citing Martin Jelsma and Pien Metaal, “Cracks in the Vienna Consensus: The UN Drug Control Debate,” Drug War Monitor, Washington, D.C., Washington Office on Latin America, January 2004. 14 Ewen MacAskill and Suzanne Goldenberg, “Bush’s Last Stand,” Guardian (London), 11 January 2007; Michael Gordon, “Deadliest Bomb in Iraq Is Made in Iran, U.S.
Speculative Everything: Design, Fiction, and Social Dreaming by Anthony Dunne, Fiona Raby
3D printing, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, Buckminster Fuller, Cass Sunstein, computer age, corporate governance, David Attenborough, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, game design, global village, Google X / Alphabet X, haute couture, life extension, Mark Zuckerberg, mouse model, New Urbanism, Peter Eisenman, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, social software, technoutopianism, Wall-E
It had room for deck games, an orchestra, a gymnasium, a solarium, airplane hangars, and could sleep 606 passengers. Bel Geddes intended it to be built and flown between Chicago and London, but sadly, was unable to raise the necessary funding. Norman Bel Geddes, Airliner No. 4, 1929. Image courtesy of the Edith Lutyens and Norman Bel Geddes Foundation. In the shadowlands of big thinking is the RAND Corporation and Herman Kahn. The RAND Corporation developed many of the techniques used today for scenario building." Kahn, who coined the phrase "thinking the unthinkable," more than many, really did think the unthinkable. At one point he reconceptualized the practicalities of nuclear war by thinking through the aftermath in a rational way: what the costs would be and how America could rebuild itself after a nuclear war.
Rem Koolhaas, AMO, Roadmap 2050 Eneropa, 2010. 0 OMA. THE UNITED MICRO-KINGDOMS: A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT20 Inspired by all this big thinking we decided to try a design experiment to take the literary imagination behind the Sternberg Solution series, or The World, Who Wants It, and combine it with more concrete design speculations. After finding the wonderfully titled The Beginner's Guide to NationBuilding published by the RAND Corporation in 2007,21 we began to wonder how nations were built and if states could be designed. Architects have long developed master plans for cities and regions. Could we talk about big ideas through small things? The Design Museum in London invited us to try. It is common in the design of technology products and services to start with personas, then develop scenarios, all within existing reality.
Andrea Hyde, Metahaven's Facestate Social Media and the State: An Interview with Metahaven. Available at http://www.walkerart.org/ magazine/2011/metahavens-facestate. Accessed December 23, 2012. 20. The project was commissioned by the Design Museum in London and exhibited there as "The United Micro Kingdoms: A Design Fiction" between May 1 and August 25, 2012. 21. James Dobbins et al., The Beginner's Guide to Nation - Building (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2007). Available at http://www.rand.org/pubs/ monographs/MG557.html. Accessed December 24, 2012. 22. Torie Bosch, "Sci-Fi Writer Bruce Sterling Explains the Intriguing New Concept of Design Fiction," Slate blog, March 2, 2012. Available at http:// www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/03/02/bruce_sterling_on_design_ fictions_.html. Accessed December 24, 2012. 23. This title is from a document Cynthia Weber, a professor of international relations, produced for a student project we ran related to this theme.
Computer: A History of the Information Machine by Martin Campbell-Kelly, William Aspray, Nathan L. Ensmenger, Jeffrey R. Yost
Ada Lovelace, air freight, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, Build a better mousetrap, Byte Shop, card file, cashless society, cloud computing, combinatorial explosion, computer age, deskilling, don't be evil, Donald Davies, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, Frederick Winslow Taylor, game design, garden city movement, Grace Hopper, informal economy, interchangeable parts, invention of the wheel, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, John Markoff, John von Neumann, light touch regulation, linked data, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, natural language processing, Network effects, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, Occupy movement, optical character recognition, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, Pierre-Simon Laplace, pirate software, popular electronics, prediction markets, pre–internet, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, Robert X Cringely, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, the market place, Turing machine, Vannevar Bush, Von Neumann architecture, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight, women in the workforce, young professional
In yet another example of his widespread, polymathic influence, John von Neumann, this time in his role as the developer of modern game theory, would provide the tools for economists to reconceptualize their discipline in terms of systems of information exchange and processing. And in policy circles, the systems theorist Herman Kahn would pioneer the application of game theory and computer simulation to the geopolitics of thermonuclear war. Against the backdrop of late 1950s Cold War tensions, Kahn and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation developed computerized war games to “simulate the unthinkable.” The use of computer games to model complex social phenomena, having soon transcended the walls of the RAND Corporation and the Pentagon, was eventually applied to political analysis, policy formation, and city planning. THE COMPUTER BECOMES A COMMODITY Today, with the hindsight of historical perspective, IBM’s early domination of the computer market can be seen as largely a fortuitous inheritance. For twenty years, from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, IBM was blessed with a unique combination of organizational capabilities that equipped it perfectly for the mainframe computer market.
The second market was for “custom” programs of modest size, for ordinary computer users who did not have the in-house capability or resources to develop software. The first major firm in the large-systems sector of software contracting was the RAND Corporation, a government-owned defense contractor. It developed the software for the SAGE air-defense project. When the SAGE project was begun in the early 1950s, although IBM was awarded the contract to develop and manufacture the mainframe computers, writing the programs for the system—estimated at a million lines of code—was way beyond IBM’s or anyone else’s experience. The contract for the SAGE software was therefore given to the RAND Corporation in 1955. Although lacking any actual large-scale software writing capability, the corporation was judged to have the best potential for developing it. To undertake the mammoth programming task, the corporation created a separate organization in 1956, the System Development Corporation (SDC), which became America’s first major software contractor.
Martin Greenberger, a professor at the MIT Management School who was probably the first to describe the utility concept in print, argued in an Atlantic Monthly article that the drive for computer utilities was unstoppable and that “[b]arring unforeseen obstacles, an on-line interactive computer service, provided commercially by an information utility, may be as commonplace by A.D. 2000 as the telephone service is today.” The computer utility vision was widely shared by computer pundits at the end of the 1960s. Paul Baran, a computer-communications specialist at the RAND Corporation, waxed eloquent about the computer utility in the home: And while it may seem odd to think of piping computing power into homes, it may not be as far-fetched as it sounds. We will speak to the computers of the future in a language simple to learn and easy to use. Our home computer console will be used to send and receive messages—like telegrams. We could check to see whether the local department store has the advertised sports shirt in stock in the desired color and size.
Protocol: how control exists after decentralization by Alexander R. Galloway
Ada Lovelace, airport security, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, Bretton Woods, computer age, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Grace Hopper, Hacker Ethic, informal economy, John Conway, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, late capitalism, linear programming, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Menlo Park, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, Norbert Wiener, old-boy network, packet switching, phenotype, post-industrial society, profit motive, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, semantic web, SETI@home, stem cell, Steve Crocker, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, telerobotics, the market place, theory of mind, urban planning, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Review, working poor
American anxiety over Soviet technological advancement was very real after the Sputnik launches. “The launching of the sputniks told us,” wrote John Dunning for The New York Times Introduction 4 ration decided to create a computer network that was independent of centralized command and control, and would thus be able to withstand a nuclear attack that targets such centralized hubs. In August 1964, he published an eleven-volume memorandum for the Rand Corporation outlining his research.6 Baran’s network was based on a technology called packet-switching7 that allows messages to break themselves apart into small fragments. Each fragment, or packet, is able to ﬁnd its own way to its destination. Once there, the packets reassemble to create the original message. In 1969, the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) at the U.S. Department of Defense started the ARPAnet, the ﬁrst network to use Baran’s packet-switching technology.
Eisenhower System of Interstate & Defense Highways, better known as the interstate highway system. The highway system was ﬁrst approved by Congress immediately following World War II, but was not ofﬁcially begun until June 29, 1956, when President Eisenhower signed it into law. (This is exactly the same period during which Internet pioneer Paul Baran began experimenting with distributed, packet-switching computer technologies at the Rand Corporation.11) The highway system is a distributed network because it lacks any centralized hubs and offers direct linkages from city to city through a variety of highway combinations. For example, someone traveling from Los Angeles to Denver may begin by traveling on Interstate 5 north toward San Francisco turning northwest on Interstate 80, or head out on Interstate 15 toward Las Vegas, or even Interstate 40 toward Albuquerque.
These include standards for Ethernet18 (the most common local area networking protocol in use today), Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and others. “The IEEE,” Paul Baran observed, “has been a major factor in the development of communications technology.”19 Indeed Baran’s own theories, which eventually would spawn the Internet, were published within the IEEE community even as they were published by his own employer, the Rand Corporation. Active within the United States are the National Institute for Standardization and Technology (NIST) and ANSI. The century-old NIST, formerly known as the National Bureau of Standards, is a federal agency that develops and promotes technological standards. Because it is a federal agency and not a professional society, it has no membership per se. It is also nonregulatory, meaning that it does not enforce laws or establish mandatory standards that must be adopted.
The Rise of the Network Society by Manuel Castells
Apple II, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, borderless world, British Empire, capital controls, complexity theory, computer age, computerized trading, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, declining real wages, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, deskilling, disintermediation, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, edge city, experimental subject, financial deregulation, financial independence, floating exchange rates, future of work, global village, Gunnar Myrdal, Hacker Ethic, hiring and firing, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, income inequality, Induced demand, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, intermodal, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, job-hopping, John Markoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, laissez-faire capitalism, Leonard Kleinrock, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, moral panic, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, packet switching, Pearl River Delta, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, popular capitalism, popular electronics, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social software, South China Sea, South of Market, San Francisco, special economic zone, spinning jenny, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Ted Nelson, the built environment, the medium is the message, the new new thing, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, urban renewal, urban sprawl, zero-sum game
For an empirical study of the growth of the Internet, see Batty and Barr (1994). For a discussion of Internet’s prospects, see a study by the Rand Corporation available only on-line at the time of writing: Rand Corporation (1995). 72 Cerf (1999). 73 Kahn (1999). 74 Zook (2000c). 75 UNDP (1999); UNESCO (1999); US Department of Commerce (1999b); Castells and Kiselyova (2000); Zook (2000a). 76 See, for instance, Comision de nuevas tecnologias (1999). 77 Dutton (1999); UNESCO (1999). 78 Zook (2000b). 79 Markoff (1995). 80 De Kerckhove (1997). 81 Harmon (1999); Linus Torvalds (personal communication, 1999). 82 Himannen (2001). 83 Gitlin (1987); Rand Corporation (1995). 84 To follow Rheingold’s (1993) biological image. 85 Rheingold (1993). 86 Rheingold (1993); Turkle (1995); Jones (1995, 1997, 1998); Kiesler (1997). 87 Barlow (1995: 40). 88 Mitchell (1995, 1999). 89 Turkle (1995: 267). 90 Slouka (1995). 91 Wolton (1998). 92 Kraut et al. (1998). 93 Wellman et al. (1996); Wellman (1997); Wellman and Gulia (1999). 94 Castells (1972); Wellman (1979); Fischer (1982). 95 Wellman and Gulia (1999: 355). 96 Putnam (1995). 97 Wellman and Gulia (1999: 350). 98 Sproull and Kiesler (1991); Rand Corporation (1995). 99 Hiltz and Turoff (1993); Sato et al. (1995), US Department of Commerce (1999). 100 Gurstein (1990). 101 Montgomery (1999: 15). 102 Baym (1998: 55). 103 Dyson (1998). 104 US Library of Congress (1999). 105 Lanham (1993); Rand Corporation (1995). 106 Specter (1994). 107 Armstrong (1994). 108 Abramson et al. (1988); Epstein (1995). 109 Castells et al. (1996). 110 Ganley (1991); Varley (1991). 111 Patrice Riemens (personal communication – face to face, handwritten mail, electronic mail – 1997/99). 112 Schuler (1996). 113 Keck and Sikkink (1998). 114 December (1993), cited and summarized by Benson (1994). 115 De Kerckhove (1997: 51). 116 Dutton (1999). 117 Fischer (1992). 118 Rheingold (1993). 119 Castells and Kiselyova (2000). 120 Sullivan-Trainor (1994). 121 Telecommunications Council (1994). 122 Thery (1994). 123 Banegas (1993). 124 See, among a myriad of business sources on the matter, Bird (1994); Bunker (1994); Dalloz and Portnoff (1994); Herther (1994). 125 The Economist (1994a). 126 Schiller (1999). 127 Business Week (1994h). 128 Elmer-Dewwit (1993); Poirier (1993); Business Week (1994d). 129 New Media Markets (1993). 130 Owen (1999: ch.17). 131 Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (1994); New Media Markets (1994). 132 Kaplan (1992); Sellers (1993); Booker (1994); Business Week (1994e); Lizzio (1994); Wexler (1994). 133 Owen (1999: 313). 134 Business Week (1994f). 135 Dentsu Institute for Human Studies (1994: 117). 136 Martin (1994). 137 Owen (1999: 4). 138 Bunker (1994); Business Week (1994f); Cuneo (1994); The Economist (1994a). 139 Piller (1994). 140 Tobenkin (1993); Martin (1994). 141 Van der Haak (1999). 142 Moran (1993). 143 Dentsu Institute for Human Studies (1994: 140–3). 144 Negroponte (1995). 145 Baudrillard (1972); Barthes (1978). 146 Oxford Dictionary of Current English (1992). 6 The Space of Flows Space and time are the fundamental, material dimensions of human life.
For a discussion of Internet’s prospects, see a study by the Rand Corporation available only on-line at the time of writing: Rand Corporation (1995). 72 Cerf (1999). 73 Kahn (1999). 74 Zook (2000c). 75 UNDP (1999); UNESCO (1999); US Department of Commerce (1999b); Castells and Kiselyova (2000); Zook (2000a). 76 See, for instance, Comision de nuevas tecnologias (1999). 77 Dutton (1999); UNESCO (1999). 78 Zook (2000b). 79 Markoff (1995). 80 De Kerckhove (1997). 81 Harmon (1999); Linus Torvalds (personal communication, 1999). 82 Himannen (2001). 83 Gitlin (1987); Rand Corporation (1995). 84 To follow Rheingold’s (1993) biological image. 85 Rheingold (1993). 86 Rheingold (1993); Turkle (1995); Jones (1995, 1997, 1998); Kiesler (1997). 87 Barlow (1995: 40). 88 Mitchell (1995, 1999). 89 Turkle (1995: 267). 90 Slouka (1995). 91 Wolton (1998). 92 Kraut et al. (1998). 93 Wellman et al. (1996); Wellman (1997); Wellman and Gulia (1999). 94 Castells (1972); Wellman (1979); Fischer (1982). 95 Wellman and Gulia (1999: 355). 96 Putnam (1995). 97 Wellman and Gulia (1999: 350). 98 Sproull and Kiesler (1991); Rand Corporation (1995). 99 Hiltz and Turoff (1993); Sato et al. (1995), US Department of Commerce (1999). 100 Gurstein (1990). 101 Montgomery (1999: 15). 102 Baym (1998: 55). 103 Dyson (1998). 104 US Library of Congress (1999). 105 Lanham (1993); Rand Corporation (1995). 106 Specter (1994). 107 Armstrong (1994). 108 Abramson et al. (1988); Epstein (1995). 109 Castells et al. (1996). 110 Ganley (1991); Varley (1991). 111 Patrice Riemens (personal communication – face to face, handwritten mail, electronic mail – 1997/99). 112 Schuler (1996). 113 Keck and Sikkink (1998). 114 December (1993), cited and summarized by Benson (1994). 115 De Kerckhove (1997: 51). 116 Dutton (1999). 117 Fischer (1992). 118 Rheingold (1993). 119 Castells and Kiselyova (2000). 120 Sullivan-Trainor (1994). 121 Telecommunications Council (1994). 122 Thery (1994). 123 Banegas (1993). 124 See, among a myriad of business sources on the matter, Bird (1994); Bunker (1994); Dalloz and Portnoff (1994); Herther (1994). 125 The Economist (1994a). 126 Schiller (1999). 127 Business Week (1994h). 128 Elmer-Dewwit (1993); Poirier (1993); Business Week (1994d). 129 New Media Markets (1993). 130 Owen (1999: ch.17). 131 Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (1994); New Media Markets (1994). 132 Kaplan (1992); Sellers (1993); Booker (1994); Business Week (1994e); Lizzio (1994); Wexler (1994). 133 Owen (1999: 313). 134 Business Week (1994f). 135 Dentsu Institute for Human Studies (1994: 117). 136 Martin (1994). 137 Owen (1999: 4). 138 Bunker (1994); Business Week (1994f); Cuneo (1994); The Economist (1994a). 139 Piller (1994). 140 Tobenkin (1993); Martin (1994). 141 Van der Haak (1999). 142 Moran (1993). 143 Dentsu Institute for Human Studies (1994: 140–3). 144 Negroponte (1995). 145 Baudrillard (1972); Barthes (1978). 146 Oxford Dictionary of Current English (1992). 6 The Space of Flows Space and time are the fundamental, material dimensions of human life.
The creation of the Internet The creation and development of the Internet in the last three decades on the twentieth century resulted from a unique blending of military strategy, big science cooperation, technological entrepreneurship, and countercultural innovation.49 The origins of the Internet lie in the work of one of the most innovative research institutions in the world: the US Defense Department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA). When in the late 1950s the launching of the first Sputnik alarmed the American high-tech military establishment, ARPA undertook a number of bold initiatives, some of which changed the history of technology and ushered in the Information Age on a grand scale. One of these strategies, developing an idea conceived by Paul Baran at Rand Corporation in 1960–4, was to design a communications system invulnerable to nuclear attack. Based on packet-switching communication technology, the system made the network independent of command and control centers, so that message units would find their own routes along the network, being reassembled in coherent meaning at any point in the network. When, later on, digital technology allowed the packaging of all kind of messages, including sound, images, and data, a network was formed that was able to communicate its nodes without using control centers.
1960s counterculture, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, back-to-the-land, bioinformatics, Buckminster Fuller, Claude Shannon: information theory, complexity theory, computer age, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dematerialisation, distributed generation, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, future of work, game design, George Gilder, global village, Golden Gate Park, Hacker Ethic, Haight Ashbury, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, informal economy, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, market bubble, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, means of production, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, new economy, Norbert Wiener, peer-to-peer, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, Productivity paradox, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Richard Stallman, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Ted Nelson, Telecommunications Act of 1996, theory of mind, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, Yom Kippur War
Paul Edwards has pointed out that in addition to researchers at MIT and government ofﬁcials, SAGE involved heavy contributions from IBM (which built some ﬁfty-six SAGE computers for approximately $30 million each) and the RAND Corporation (which wrote much of the computers’ software). Edwards, Closed World, 101–2. Hughes, Rescuing Prometheus, 16, 4. 54. Air Defense Systems Engineering Committee, “Air Defense System: ADSEC Final Report,” October 24, 1950, MITRE Corporation Archives, Bedford, MA, 2 –3, quoted in Hughes, Rescuing Prometheus, 21. 55. Hughes, Rescuing Prometheus, 66. 56. As Sharon Ghamari-Tabrizi has noted, there were important exceptions to this trend. On May 11, 1959, for instance, Life magazine published a photo essay on the RAND Corporation. Although most of the images depicted “people doing something iconically scientiﬁc,” the ﬁnal image showed a group of analysts in suits, reclining together on the ﬂoor, surrounded by “the mise en scene for the modern intellectual,” including “futuristic chairs and a Japanese paper kite dangling from the ceiling.”
In its meetings, its publications, and its presentations, GBN offered those individuals a vision of the New Economy as a networked entity, open to management by elite social groups and charismatic leaders and linked by interpersonal and informational networks, an entity whose laws could be made visible through a mix of systems theory, collaborative social practice, and mystical insight. GBN’s particular blending of countercultural and techno-cultural organizational styles depended on its roots in two organizations, the Stanford Research Institute and Royal Dutch/Shell. In the 1950s and 1960s, SRI and Shell represented the apogee of the military and the industrial worlds. SRI had been founded in 1947 to offer business consulting for the oil industry, but, along with the RAND Corporation, it very quickly became one of the two leading American think tanks for the U.S. military. Royal Dutch/Shell was a multinational behemoth devoted to extracting and reﬁning oil. Yet, elements of both organizations had embraced countercultural practices. GBN cofounders Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz, for instance, both worked at SRI just as the military-industrial consulting ﬁrm found itself coming to grips Networking the New Economy [ 185 ] with the counterculture around it.
They swallowed up the personal wisdom of senior ofﬁcers rooted in combat experience in favor of intuitions arising from repeated trials of laboratory-staged simulations of future war.”18 Under conditions of nuclear uncertainty, analysts had to imagine the data to which they might apply the mathematical formulas, game theories, and computer technologies they had developed for earlier forms of combat. In short, they had to simulate the future. At the RAND Corporation and later, at his own Hudson Institute, Herman Kahn, perhaps the most well-known analyst of this period, began to present his simulations in the form of scenarios—narrative scripts of possible futures. These included his infamous scenarios for nuclear Armageddon, in which he tried to convince policymakers that nuclear warfare was a real possibility and one for which they should prepare, and his equally wellknown visions for America in the year 2000.19 On the one hand, Kahn’s work on nuclear war seemed to many to be the epitome of American technocratic hubris.
In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan by Seth G. Jones
business climate, clean water, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, failed state, friendly fire, invisible hand, Khyber Pass, Mikhail Gorbachev, Murray Gell-Mann, open borders, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, trade route, zero-sum game
There he studied with strategic thinker Albert Wohlstetter, a prominent international relations scholar who led groundbreaking work on nuclear deterrence. Wohlstetter influenced the design and deployment of U.S. strategic forces through his research, developed the “second-strike” theory for deterring nuclear war, and originated “fail safe” and other methods for reducing the probability of accidental nuclear war.2 Wohlstetter served as a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, as an adviser to President John F. Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis, and, beginning in 1964, as a professor at the University of Chicago. He had a significant influence on Khalilzad and helped him make contacts in Washington. After leaving Chicago in 1979, Khalilzad moved to New York to become a professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.3 The Brutal-Hearted Mountain Tribes During his studies with Wohlstetter, Khalilzad continued to monitor events in Afghanistan and, with his academic training completed, he began writing articles on the invasion using a pseudonym to protect members of his family who were still there.
The city is divided by the stream which bears its name, and is surrounded, particularly on the north and west, by numerous gardens and groves of fruit trees…. The charms of the climate and scenery of Caubul have been celebrated by many Persian and Indian writers. The beauty and abundance of its flowers are proverbial, and its fruits are transported to the remotest parts of India.32 As Kabul crumbled during the fighting, Zalmay Khalilzad, a senior analyst at the RAND Corporation, became perturbed at the waning U.S. interest in the region. “America has not helped Afghans and our friends in the region make the right decisions,” Khalilzad wrote in a scathing 1996 opinion piece in the Washington Post. “After the fall of the Soviet Union we stopped paying attention. This was a bad decision. Instability and war in Afghanistan provided fertile ground for terrorist groups to train and hide,” he noted cryptically.
The tribes were granted maximum autonomy and allowed to run their affairs in accordance with their Islamic faith, customs, and traditions. Tribal elders, known as maliks, were given special favors by the British in return for maintaining peace, keeping open important roads such as the Khyber Pass, and apprehending criminals. After partition in 1947, Pakistan continued this system of local autonomy and special favors. FIGURE 6.2 Pakistan’s Tribal Agencies Courtesy of RAND Corporation Pakistan’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, laid the foundation for this independence in remarks to a tribal jirga in Peshawar in 1948: “Keeping in view your loyalty, help, assurance and declarations we ordered, as you know, the withdrawal of troops from Waziristan as a concrete and definite gesture on our part…. Pakistan has no desire to unduly interfere with your internal freedom.”52 The system of administration remained fairly consistent after Pakistan’s independence, despite demands by the educated and enlightened sections of the tribal population, and Pakistani courts and police had no jurisdiction in the tribal areas.
Future Shock by Alvin Toffler
Albert Einstein, Brownian motion, Buckminster Fuller, cognitive dissonance, Colonization of Mars, corporate governance, East Village, global village, Haight Ashbury, information retrieval, invention of agriculture, invention of movable type, invention of writing, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, Menlo Park, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, post-industrial society, RAND corporation, the market place, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, urban renewal, Whole Earth Catalog, zero-sum game
If you can define a task and a human can do it, then a machine can, at least in theory, also do it. The converse, however, is not true." Intelligence and creativity, it would appear, are not a human monopoly. Despite setbacks and difficulties, the roboteers are moving forward. Recently they enjoyed a collective laugh at the expense of one of the leading critics of the robot-builders, a former RAND Corporation computer specialist named Hubert L. Dreyfus. Arguing that computers would never be able to match human intelligence, Dreyfus wrote a lengthy paper heaping vitriolic scorn on those who disagreed with him. Among other things, he declared, "No chess program can play even amateur chess." In context, he appeared to be saying that none ever would. Less than two years later, a graduate student at MIT, Richard Greenblatt, wrote a chess-playing computer program, challenged Dreyfus to a match, and had the immense satisfaction of watching the computer annihilate Dreyfus to the cheers of the "artificial intelligence" researchers.
The possibility of enhancing human (and machine) intelligence by linking them together organically opens enormous and exciting probabilities, so exciting that Dr. R. M. Page, director of the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, has publicly discussed the feasibility of a system in which human thoughts are fed automatically into the storage unit of a computer to form the basis for machine decisionmaking. Participants in a RAND Corporation study conducted several years ago were asked when this development might occur. Answers ranged from as soon as 1990 to "never." But the median date given was 2020—well within the lifetime of today's teen-agers. In the meantime, research from countless sources contributes toward the eventual symbiosis. In one of the most fascinating, frightening and intellectually provocative experiments ever recorded, Professor Robert White, director of neurosurgery at the Metropolitan General Hospital in Cleveland, has given evidence that the brain can be isolated from its body and kept alive after the "death" of the rest of the organism.
We have noted, for example, that the basic organization of the present school system parallels that of the factory. For generations, we have simply assumed that the proper place for education to occur is in a school. Yet if the new education is to simulate the society of tomorrow, should it take place in school at all? As levels of education rise, more and more parents are intellectually equipped to assume some responsibilities now delegated to the schools. Near Santa Monica, California, where the RAND Corporation has its headquarters, in the research belt around Cambridge, Massachusetts, or in such science cities as Oak Ridge, Los Alamos or Huntsville, many parents are clearly more capable of teaching certain subjects to their children than are the teachers in the local schools. With the move toward knowledge-based industry and the increase of leisure, we can anticipate a small but significant tendency for highly educated parents to pull their children at least partway out of the public education system, offering them home instruction instead.
Rise of the Machines: A Cybernetic History by Thomas Rid
1960s counterculture, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Alistair Cooke, Apple II, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Brownian motion, Buckminster Fuller, business intelligence, Claude Shannon: information theory, conceptual framework, connected car, domain-specific language, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, dumpster diving, Extropian, full employment, game design, global village, Haight Ashbury, Howard Rheingold, Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, new economy, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, Simon Singh, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Telecommunications Act of 1996, telepresence, V2 rocket, Vernor Vinge, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, Y2K, Yom Kippur War, Zimmermann PGP
He foresaw the widespread use of nuclear reactors for power, new techniques for birth control, commercial oil extraction from shale, “pocket phones,” and the use of home computers. Nineteen sixty-seven was one year before Intel was founded and two years before ARPANET was launched, the famous predecessor to the internet initially funded by the Pentagon’s Advanced Research Projects Agency Network, later called DARPA (the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). Yet Kahn saw the writing on the wall: the computer revolution—as this man, the Rand Corporation’s foremost nuclear thinker saw it—was the most important, most salient, and most exciting aspect of modern technology.80 Remarkably, Kahn even suspected that “each user” might have a private file space in a central computer, for such uses as consulting the Library of Congress. Computer access would be used to reduce crime, as police can check immediately the record “of any person stopped for questioning.”
On April 25, 1963, Licklider wrote a famous memorandum, addressed to “members and affiliates of the Intergalactic Computer Network.”85 This was meant in irony, “as you may have detected in the above-Subject,” he wrote to his colleagues and collaborators in the memo. “I am at a loss for a name.” Then Licklider articulated in more detail what this computer network was supposed to be all about: the advancement of the art of information processing, and “the advancement of intellectual capability (man, man-machine, or machine),” Licklider wrote. The memo went out to ARPA-contracted researchers at Stanford University, UC Berkeley, UCLA, MIT, the Rand Corporation, and several contractors in industry. To make progress in these endeavors, he reckoned, each researcher needed hardware facilities, as well as a software base more complex and more extensive than one person alone could build. The only solution was a network of computers, a network of individual “thinking centers,” as he called it. The researchers played a key role in conceiving and funding ARPANET.
These weapons would be “autonomous,” in one of the phrases then preferred by weapon designers. An example was the navy’s Tomahawk cruise missile. Cyberwar meant crewless tanks, cruise missiles that behave like kamikaze robots, head-to-toe battle gear with microclimate control and hazard protection for the infantry, as well as “anti-missile satellites.”20 Some thought this characterization was too simple. The following year, two Rand Corporation analysts—John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt—published an influential paper, “Cyberwar Is Coming!” Autonomous weapons weren’t enough, they argued. The respected think-tank veterans injected a fresh and controversial idea into the Washington defense establishment. Arquilla and Ronfeldt also disagreed with the prevailing view within the Joint Staff, then still headed by Colin Powell: that overwhelming force was necessary to win the next war.
Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions by Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths
4chan, Ada Lovelace, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anthropic principle, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, Bayesian statistics, Berlin Wall, Bill Duvall, bitcoin, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, constrained optimization, cosmological principle, cryptocurrency, Danny Hillis, David Heinemeier Hansson, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, diversification, Donald Knuth, double helix, Elon Musk, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, Firefox, first-price auction, Flash crash, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Akerlof, global supply chain, Google Chrome, Henri Poincaré, information retrieval, Internet Archive, Jeff Bezos, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, knapsack problem, Lao Tzu, Leonard Kleinrock, linear programming, martingale, Nash equilibrium, natural language processing, NP-complete, P = NP, packet switching, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prediction markets, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Robert X Cringely, sealed-bid auction, second-price auction, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, sorting algorithm, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, stochastic process, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Malthus, traveling salesman, Turing machine, urban planning, Vickrey auction, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, Y Combinator, zero-sum game
“the prisoner’s dilemma”: The prisoner’s dilemma was first conceived by Merrill Flood (of secretary problem and traveling salesman problem fame) and Melvin Drescher at RAND Corporation. In January 1950, they staged a game between UCLA’s Armen Alchian and RAND’s John D. Williams that had prisoner’s dilemma–like payoffs (Flood, “Some Experimental Games”). Princeton’s Albert Tucker was intrigued by this experiment, and in preparing to discuss it that May in a lecture at Stanford, he gave the problem its now famous prison formulation and its name. A detailed history of the origins of game theory and its development in the work of the RAND Corporation can be found in Poundstone, Prisoner’s Dilemma. a price of anarchy that’s a mere 4/3: Roughgarden and Tardos, “How Bad Is Selfish Routing?” Roughgarden’s 2002 Cornell PhD also addresses the topic of selfish routing.
More significantly, Win-Stay, Lose-Shift doesn’t have any notion of the interval over which you are optimizing. If your favorite restaurant disappointed you the last time you ate there, that algorithm always says you should go to another place—even if it’s your last night in town. Still, Robbins’s initial work on the multi-armed bandit problem kicked off a substantial literature, and researchers made significant progress over the next few years. Richard Bellman, a mathematician at the RAND Corporation, found an exact solution to the problem for cases where we know in advance exactly how many options and opportunities we’ll have in total. As with the full-information secretary problem, Bellman’s trick was essentially to work backward, starting by imagining the final pull and considering which slot machine to choose given all the possible outcomes of the previous decisions. Having figured that out, you’d then turn to the second-to-last opportunity, then the previous one, and the one before that, all the way back to the start.
A century later, Gantt charts still adorn the walls and screens of project managers at firms like Amazon, IKEA, and SpaceX. Taylor and Gantt made scheduling an object of study, and they gave it visual and conceptual form. But they didn’t solve the fundamental problem of determining which schedules were best. The first hint that this problem even could be solved wouldn’t appear until several decades later, in a 1954 paper published by RAND Corporation mathematician Selmer Johnson. The scenario Johnson examined was bookbinding, where each book needs to be printed on one machine and then bound on another. But the most common instance of this two-machine setup is much closer to home: the laundry. When you wash your clothes, they have to pass through the washer and the dryer in sequence, and different loads will take different amounts of time in each.
Let Them In: The Case for Open Borders by Jason L. Riley
affirmative action, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, declining real wages, deindustrialization, desegregation, guest worker program, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, labor-force participation, labour market flexibility, low skilled workers, lump of labour, mass immigration, open borders, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Silicon Valley, trade liberalization, War on Poverty, working poor, working-age population, zero-sum game
California has by far the country’s largest illegal alien population at 2.8 million (though the state’s share of the nation’s total has been falling), followed once again by Texas, which has half as many undocumented migrants. The experience of these two states is instructive, or should be, for anyone interested in facts about public benefits and immigrants, rather than emotion or populist rhetoric. In what its authors describe as “the most detailed analysis to date of immigrants and their use of health services,” a 2006 Rand Corporation study estimates that each year the United States spends “about $1.1 billion in federal, state, and local government funds on heath care for illegal immigrants aged 18-64.” That works out to $11 per household. Lou Dobbs informs his viewers that thousands of illegal alien lepers are scurrying across the Mexican border, infecting Americans and spiking health-care costs. But the Rand researchers found that nonelderly adult immigrants, both legal and illegal, made fewer visits to the hospital than their native-born counterparts.
Myers is hardly the only social scientist to notice Latino upward mobility, and California isn’t the only place it’s happening. In a definitive longitudinal study in the 1990s, sociologists Alejandro Portes and Ruben Rumbaut found substantial second-generation progress among Latinos in Miami and Fort Lauderdale as well. Nationwide cross-generational studies show the same results. In 2006, economist James Smith of the RAND Corporation found that successive generations of Latinos have experienced significant improvements in wages relative both to their fathers and grandfathers and to the native whites with whom they compete for jobs. And Roger Waldinger and Renee Reichl, two UCLA social scientists, found that while first-generation Mexican men earned just half as much as white natives in 2000, the second generation had upped their earnings to three-quarters of their Anglo counterparts.
See Republican restrictionist argument Ponnuru, Ramesh Pope, Carl population argument. See overpopulation argument Population Bomb, The (Ehrlich) population growth Portes, Alejandro Poverty Powell, Benjamin Prager, Dennis Prescott, Edward productivity professionals, immigrant ProjectUSA Proposition protectionism public school system Puerto Rican immigrants Race Betterment Foundation Racism RAND Corporation Randolph, A. Philip Reagan, Ronald, ix Rector, Robert Reichl, Renee Republican restrictionist argument alienation of Hispanic voters and Bracero Program and Bush, George W. vs. - concession of Hispanic vote and gamble on immigration issue in congressional elections of and House immigration “field hearings” and Immigration Control and Reform Act of (ICRA) and Kennedy-McCain bill of and losses in congressional elections of and Proposition in California and talk radio and welfare and Resource reduction-population increase argument restaurant industry Ricardo, David Richardson, Bill Ridge, Tom Rios, Xavier Rockefeller Foundation Rodgers, T.
David Brooks, desegregation, hiring and firing, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, mega-rich, Menlo Park, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, school choice, school vouchers, The Death and Life of Great American Cities
The founder of the organization, a former insurance company executive, allegedly collected $100 million from the state to finance his statewide chain of charter schools.29 Pennsylvania passed a charter law in 1997. Ten years later, there were 127 charter schools, nearly half in Philadelphia. The city adopted what is known as the “diverse provider model,” in which district schools compete with charter schools and privately managed schools (operating under contract to the district and not entirely free of districtwide mandates). Researchers from the RAND Corporation noted that achievement had improved in Philadelphia, but “with so many different interventions under way simultaneously in Philadelphia, there is no way to determine exactly which components of the reform plan are responsible for the improvement.” The RAND team concluded in 2008 that students in charter schools made gains that were statistically indistinguishable from the gains they experienced while attending traditional public schools.
: U.S. Department of Education, 2007), 50, 58. 29 Sam Dillon, “Collapse of 60 Charter Schools Leaves Californians Scrambling,” New York Times, September 17, 2004. 30 Kristen A. Graham, “SRC Told Firms Need New Role,” Philadelphia Inquirer, June 11, 2009; Brian Gill et al., State Takeover, School Restructuring, Private Management, and Student Achievement in Philadelphia (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2007), 39-41; Ron Zimmer et al., “Evaluating the Performance of Philadelphia’s Charter Schools,” Working Paper, RAND Education, Mathematica Policy Research, and Research for Action, 2008, iii. See also Kristen A. Graham, “Study: District-Run Phila. Schools Top Manager-Run Ones,” Philadelphia Inquirer, April 9, 2009. 31 Martha Woodall, “Charter Schools’ Problems Surfacing,” Philadelphia Inquirer, December 29, 2008; Dan Hardy, “Charter School Appeals to Block Release of Records,” Philadelphia Inquirer, June 11, 2009. 32 Buckley and Schneider, Charter Schools: Hope or Hype?
Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2006), iii-v. 42 Christopher Lubienski and Sarah Theule Lubienski, Charter, Private, Public Schools and Academic Achievement: New Evidence from NAEP Mathematics Data (New York: National Center for the Study of Privatization in Education, Teachers College, Columbia University, 2006), 2-5, 40. See also Ron Zimmer et al., Charter Schools in Eight States: Effects on Achievement, Attainment, Integration, and Competition (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009). 43 Erik W. Robelen, “NAEP Gap Continuing for Charters: Sector’s Scores Lag in Three Out of Four Main Categories,” Education Week, May 21, 2008, 1, 14. 44 Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Thomas Kane, et al., Informing the Debate: Comparing Boston’s Charter, Pilot and Traditional Schools (Boston: The Boston Foundation, 2009), 39; Boston Globe, “Top-Scoring Schools on the 10th Grade MCAS,” 2008, www.boston.com/news/special/education/mcas/scores08/10th_top_schools.htm; Jennifer Jennings, “The Boston Pilot/Charter School Study: Some Good News, and Some Cautions,” Eduwonkette blog, January 7, 2009, http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/eduwonkette/2009/01/the_boston_pilotcharter_school.html. 45 Vaznis, “Charter Schools Lag in Serving the Neediest.” 46 Center for Research on Education Outcomes (CREDO), Multiple Choice: Charter School Performance in 16 States (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, 2009); Lesli A.
Earth Wars: The Battle for Global Resources by Geoff Hiscock
Admiral Zheng, Asian financial crisis, Bakken shale, Bernie Madoff, BRICs, butterfly effect, clean water, cleantech, corporate governance, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, energy security, energy transition, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, flex fuel, global rebalancing, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, Long Term Capital Management, Malacca Straits, Masdar, mass immigration, megacity, Menlo Park, Mohammed Bouazizi, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Panamax, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, trade route, uranium enrichment, urban decay, working-age population, Yom Kippur War
Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential. Brussels: International Crisis Group, 4 April 2002. Chaze, Aaron. India: An Investor’s Guide to the Next Economic Superpower. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia), 2006, 321 pp. China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment. Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 22 August 2011. Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle. Menlo Park, CA: U.S. Geological Service, 2008. Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences and Strategies for Deterrence. Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, October 2011. Corruption Perceptions Index 2011. Berlin: Transparency International, 26 October 2011. Cunningham, Fiona, and Rory Medcalf. The Dangers of Denial: Nuclear Weapons in China-India Relations. Sydney: Lowy Institute, 18 October 2011. Diamond, Jared.
Japan acknowledges that the Chinese drills are operating in Chinese waters, but says they might tap into a gas field that extends into the disputed territory, in which case Japan might have a claim on some of the gas. China has dismissed the Japanese position, in much the same way as it refuses to acknowledge various territorial claims further south in the oil-rich South China Sea by Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, and Taiwan. These waters, it constantly reminds its neighbours, always have been and always will be Chinese. A recent study prepared for the U.S. Army by the RAND Corporation on possible regional conflicts involving China found that “an ongoing territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and overlapping claims to exclusive economic zones in the East China Sea are persistent irritants to the (China-Japan) relationship. Conflict could arise from an at-sea incident in the East China Sea, or from the escalation of a war of words amplified by some sort of maritime encounter.”3 Just such an incident happened in September 2010, when Japanese authorities arrested the captain of a Chinese fishing trawler after his vessel rammed a Japanese coastguard ship near the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
The process, where a photocatalyst is driven by sunlight to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, is viewed as a promising medium to long-range renewable energy alternative.11 Notes 1. Japanese Ministry of Defense, 2011 White Paper, Tokyo, 2 August 2011. 2. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ma Zhaoxu, Beijing, 3 August 2011, reacting to Japan’s Defense White Paper. 3. James Dobbins, David Gompert, David Shlapak, Andrew Scobell, Occasional Paper, Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence, (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation), October 2011. 4. Ross Garnaut, Australia and the Northeast Asian Ascendancy (Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service, 1989), p. 36. 5. Ibid., p. 13. 6. Ibid., p. 36. 7. HSBC, “The World in 2050,” Hong Kong, January 2011. 8. Goldman Sachs, “BRICs and Beyond,” 23 November 2007. 9. Remarks at Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s press conference, 2 September 2011. 10. Son, Masayoshi, “Tsunami Clears Way for Solar-Powered Japan,” Asia Times, 23 September 2011. 11.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Apple II, back-to-the-land, beat the dealer, Bill Duvall, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Buckminster Fuller, California gold rush, card file, computer age, computer vision, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Donald Knuth, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, Edward Thorp, El Camino Real, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, general-purpose programming language, Golden Gate Park, Hacker Ethic, hypertext link, informal economy, information retrieval, invention of the printing press, Jeff Rulifson, John Markoff, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Mahatma Gandhi, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Paul Terrell, popular electronics, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, Robert X Cringely, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South of Market, San Francisco, speech recognition, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, union organizing, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight
The goal of the study was to discover which device would allow a user to get to a given point on the screen most quickly as well as repeatedly with the fewest errors. English was anxiously looking for a project to get into, and so Engelbart told him to begin organizing pointer experiments. Other kinds of pointing devices were already in use, including light pens, trackballs, and tablets with styli. The RAND Corporation had invented the latter, and though Engelbart hoped for a while that he could persuade them to lend him one for their research, the company told him it didn’t have any available. The actual idea of a rolling, handheld pointing device came to Engelbart one day when he was at a computer-graphics conference. As he often did, he was feeling like an outsider, because everyone was talking, and he was uncomfortable and having trouble making himself heard.
Instead, computers had become fast enough so that by slicing the computer’s programming resources into tiny time slots and allocating them to different users, each user would have the illusion that he had a single large computer all to himself. Since computers did things at lightning speed, and since in the days before graphical displays most user interaction with the machine consisted of merely entering text and data at a keyboard, the vast majority of the computer’s time was being wasted while it waited for user input. To be sure, there had been an earlier time-sharing machine invented at the RAND Corporation known as JOSS, but it consisted of lights on top of terminals—the computer’s time was allocated to the terminal whose light was switched on at the moment! In the late 1950s, however, McCarthy’s notion was prescient and similar to Doug Engelbart’s vision for the Augmentation machine. However, they remained fundamentally different concepts. At the deepest level, the question was whether humans would remain in the loop.
They decided that, according to Moore’s Law, it wouldn’t be possible until the late seventies or early eighties—an impossibly long time into the future. During his travels, Kay also visited the nation’s best computer-science research centers. He spent time in Menlo Park with the Augment Group, where Bill English took him under his wing and introduced him to many of Engelbart’s best young researchers. He traveled to MIT, where he visited with Papert. He traveled to the RAND Corporation and learned about a system called GRAIL that made it possible for a computer to respond directly to human gestures. He was already familiar with the ARPAnet ideas that would ultimately lead to today’s Internet. Moreover, in Hawaii, ARPA-funded experimenters were playing with the idea of creating wireless networks, and so it made sense that his notebook-sized Flex machine would have a wireless connection to the outside world as well.
A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Albert Einstein, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, bitcoin, British Empire, call centre, crowdsourcing, Dava Sobel, digital map, don't be evil, Edmond Halley, Edward Snowden, Firefox, game design, Google Earth, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, Isaac Newton, job automation, John Harrison: Longitude, John Snow's cholera map, license plate recognition, lone genius, openstreetmap, polynesian navigation, popular electronics, RAND corporation, RFID, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, trade route, turn-by-turn navigation, uranium enrichment, urban planning, V2 rocket, Zipcar
“The achievement of a satellite craft by the United States would inflame the imagination of mankind and would probably produce repercussions in the world comparable to the explosion of the atomic bomb.”25 Although the study focused on the scientific and technological challenges of creating such a satellite rather than its military applications, it briefly mentioned the use of satellites as surveillance platforms for measuring the accuracy of bombing raids and tracking weather conditions over enemy targets. In 1951 the now-independent think tank RAND Corporation went further, in a report arguing that it should be possible to build a satellite with a television camera that could soar over the Soviet Union, broadcasting images back to the United States. The quality of the images would not be terribly impressive. At best the TV technology of the time would be able to detect only objects two hundred feet or larger in size. However, the study concluded that such relatively crude images would still provide valuable intelligence.26 A more detailed report issued in 1954 concluded that the US Air Force could—and should—build a television recon satellite.
Meanwhile, the air force spy satellite program had been put on hold. The Soviets’ launch of Sputnik in October 1957 cured Eisenhower of his complacency. It also eased his concerns about international law. The Soviets had gone first; the way was clear. Within days of Sputnik’s launch, Eisenhower and Assistant Secretary of Defense Donald Quarles were talking about how to get some spy satellites aloft.28 By this time the RAND Corporation had soured on its plan to broadcast the images via television. They had concluded that the best equipment that could be squeezed onto a satellite would produce images too poor to be of any use. Yet there was another way—complex and technically demanding, but possible. The satellite could use a specialized type of film, capable of handling the temperature extremes and radiation found in space.
Worst of all, Corona images were days old by the time policy makers saw them. For example, in 1967 a Corona satellite caught images of Soviet troops massing on the border of Czechoslovakia. By the time the film had been returned to earth, developed, analyzed, and provided to the Johnson administration, the Russians had already invaded.31 What the United States needed was something like the RAND Corporation’s original vision—a satellite that captured images electronically and broadcast them directly to earth. It was not until 1976 that such a satellite could be created, thanks to a technical breakthrough that was destined to capture a Nobel Prize and to restructure an entire global industry. In 1969 a pair of scientists at Bell Labs, William Boyle and George Smith, were working on electronic memory devices for computers.
affirmative action, airport security, Ayatollah Khomeini, clean water, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, data acquisition, death of newspapers, Extropian, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, informal economy, information asymmetry, Iridium satellite, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, means of production, mutually assured destruction, offshore financial centre, open economy, packet switching, pattern recognition, pirate software, placebo effect, Plutocrats, plutocrats, prediction markets, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Robert Bork, Saturday Night Live, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, telepresence, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game, Zimmermann PGP
DARPA had an ulterior motive in developing this valuable research tool. A motive that would fundamentally affect all the networks that followed, and perhaps alter society forever. Ironically, this fantastic device for peaceful rambunctiousness arose out of bloody-minded contemplations, then called “thinking about the unthinkable.” Pondering what to do during and after a nuclear war. Back in 1964, Pentagon officials asked the Rand Corporation to imagine a transcontinental communication system that might stand a chance of surviving even an atomic cataclysm. Since every major telephone, telegraph, and radio junction would surely be targeted, generals were desperate for some way to coordinate with government, industry, and troops in the field, even after a first strike against U.S. territory. Rand researcher Paul Baran found that such a survivable system was theoretically possible.
Each era seems to have its own fads regarding how best to do forecasts. In the 1960s and 1970s there was passionate interest in “Delphi polling,” which involved asking a large number of knowledgable people about the likelihood of certain future events. The average of their opinions was thought for a while to have some unbiased validity, when in fact it simply reflected the notions that were most fashionable at the time. In one infamous example, the renowned Rand Corporation released a set of predictions that included reliable long-range weather forecasting and mind control by 1975; manipulation of weather, controlled fusion, and electronic organs for humans by 1985; and sea floor mines, gene correction, and intelligent robots by 1990. Modern institutions of government and private capital are deeply concerned over the murkiness of their projections. Each summer many hold workshops, encouraging top-level managers to consult with experts, futurists, and even science fiction authors in pondering the long view.
Recognize that doing all these things properly will involve letting go of hierarchical power, without necessarily giving up the advantages of a clearly defined modern state. This is hard to do, but the neo-West already has a myriad precedents, as well as an educated population that is more than willing to turn the devolution of skill and authority into a national resource. This final theme arises in a recent book about netwar and cyberwar, edited by Rand Corporation researchers John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt: In Athenaʼs Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age, a collection of papers that explores many of the new and perilous types of confrontation that we touched upon briefly here. Most of the contributing authors appear to agree on one conclusion: the information revolution favors and strengthens networked forms of organization, while making life difficult for hierarchical forms.
Armed Humanitarians by Nathan Hodge
Andrei Shleifer, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, clean water, colonial rule, European colonialism, failed state, friendly fire, IFF: identification friend or foe, jobless men, Khyber Pass, kremlinology, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, old-boy network, Potemkin village, private military company, profit motive, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, walking around money
., p. xiii. 8 David Petraeus, “The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam: A Study of Military Influence and the Use of Force in the Post-Vietnam Era,” Ph.D. diss., Princeton University, 1987. 9 See Robert Komer, The Malayan Emergency in Retrospect: Organization of a Successful Counterinsurgency Effort (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1972). 10 Sylvia Ellis, Britain, America and the Vietnam War (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2004), p. 2. 11 Sir Robert Thompson, “Squaring the Error,” Foreign Policy, April 1968. 12 Robert Thompson, Peace Is Not at Hand (New York: David McKay, 1974), p. 71. 13 Colby and McCargar, Lost Victory, p. 263. 14 Robert Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S-GVN Performance in Vietnam (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1972), pp. v–ix. 15 Thompson, Peace Is Not at Hand, p. 59. 16 Ibid., p. 35. 17 Colby and McCargar, Lost Victory, p. 91. 18 Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing, p. 113. 19 Ibid., p. 115. 20 Ibid., p. xi. 21 Nguyen Van Thieu, letter to President Richard Nixon, March 20, 1973, The American Presidency Project, www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?
Vietnam: A History. Revised and updated. New York: Penguin Books, 1997. Kilcullen, David. The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009. Komer, Robert. Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S-GVN Performance in Vietnam. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1972. Komer, Robert. The Malayan Emergency in Retrospect: Organization of a Successful Counterinsurgency Effort. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1972. Krepinevich, Andrew. The Army and Vietnam. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986. LeMoine, Ray, and Jeff Neumann, with Donovan Webster. Babylon by Bus. New York: Penguin Press, 2006. Loeffler, Jane. The Architecture of Diplomacy: Building America’s Embassies. New York: Princeton Architectural Press, 1998.
: Washington Institute for Near East Policy), January 27, 2005. 10 Sergeant First Class Doug Sample, “Task Force Commander Says Insurgents ‘Desperate, Isolated,’ ” American Forces Press Service, March 9, 2004. 11 Daniel Gonzales, John Hollywood, et al., Networked Forces in Stability Operations: 101st Airborne Division, 3/2 and 1/25 Stryker Brigades in Northern Iraq (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2007). 12 Colonel Lloyd Sammons, interview by Plotkin. 13 Gonzales, Hollywood, et al., Networked Forces in Stability Operations. 14 U.S. General Accounting Office, “Defense Transformation: Army’s Evaluation of Stryker and M113A3 Infantry Carrier Vehicles Provided Sufficient Data for Statutorily Mandated Comparison,” publication GAO-03-671, May 2003, www.gao.gov/new.items/d03671.pdf. 15 “Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 45: Non-Governmental Organizations.” 16 Integrated Regional Information Network, Iraq: “NGO registration causes controversy,” January 13, 2004, www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?
The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less by Barry Schwartz
accounting loophole / creative accounting, attribution theory, Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, Cass Sunstein, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, endowment effect, framing effect, income per capita, job satisfaction, loss aversion, medical residency, mental accounting, Own Your Own Home, Pareto efficiency, positional goods, price anchoring, psychological pricing, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, science of happiness, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith
If you want to experience this problem for yourself, pick some prescription drug that is now being marketed directly to you, then do a web search to find out what you can about the drug that goes beyond what the ads tell you. I just tried it for Prilosec, one of the largest-selling prescription medications in existence, which is heavily advertised by its manufacturer. I got more than 20,000 hits! And there is good evidence that the absence of filters on the Internet can lead people astray. The RAND Corporation recently conducted an assessment of the quality of web sites providing medical information and found that “with rare exceptions, they’re all doing an equally poor job.” Important information was omitted, and sometimes the information presented was misleading or inaccurate. Moreover, surveys indicate that these web sites actually influence the health-related decisions of 70 percent of the people who consult them.
As advertising professor J. Twitchell, Lead Us into Temptation: The Triumph of American Materialism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999). The quote is on p. 53. Yet several studies R.B. Zajonc, “Attitudinal Effects of Mere Exposure,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1968, 9 (part 2), 1–27. The Internet can On rating the raters one finds on the Internet, see the Nadel article. The RAND Corporation On the accuracy of medical web sites, see T. Pugh, “Low Marks for Medical Web Sites,” Philadelphia Inquirer, May 23, 2001, p. A3. For a thorough discussion of strategies for information seeking and decision making in the modern, information-laden world, see J.W. Payne, J.R. Bettman, and E.J. Johnson, The Adaptive Decision Maker (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993). Even if we can There are several very useful compendia of research on how we make decisions.
See surveys Porter, Roy positional competition positional goods positive liberty postdecision regret posters PPOs prescription drugs presumptions Prilosec Princeton University prison population product placement, in movies prospect theory comparisons and description of endowment effect and neutral point and sunk costs and psychological accounting public television, ads on Putnam, Robert Q Quarterlife Crisis R racial identification RAND Corporation Real Simple, reasoning, satisfaction and reference prices regret anticipated aversion of counterfactuals and effects of maximizing and mitigation of near misses and omission bias and postdecision Regret Scale responsibility and satisfaction and sunk costs and upside to see also trade-offs Regret (Landman) religion remembered utility responsibility, regret and restaurants retirement plans reversible decisions risk, risk assessment: loss and gain preferences and and most frequent causes of death prospect theory and see also decision-making risk aversion risk seeking romantic relationships, reasoning and routines rules, as means of eliminating choice “rules of the game,” S salience definition of omission bias and perception and satisfaction: misprediction of reasoning and regret and “three gap” assessment and see also happiness satisfaction treadmill Satisfaction with Life Scale satisficers definition of as maximizers maximizers compared with social comparison and trade-offs and scarcity Scitovsky, Tibor Seabrook, John second-order decisions security, primary importance of self-blame self-determination self-esteem, in comparison with others self-respect, freedom and Seligman, Martin Sen, Amartya shopping: comparison framing and reference prices and by maximizers by satisficers time vs. pleasure and Silent World of Doctor and Patient, The (Katz) Simon, Herbert simplicity Sipress, David sitcoms, decreasing length of Smaller, Barbara Smeloff, Edward A.
Albert Einstein, Bayesian statistics, Black-Scholes formula, Bretton Woods, Brownian motion, capital asset pricing model, collateralized debt obligation, correlation coefficient, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, discovery of penicillin, discrete time, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, financial innovation, fixed income, floating exchange rates, full employment, Henri Poincaré, implied volatility, index fund, Isaac Newton, John Meriwether, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Long Term Capital Management, Louis Bachelier, margin call, market clearing, martingale, means of production, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, naked short selling, Paul Samuelson, price stability, principal–agent problem, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, RAND corporation, random walk, risk tolerance, risk/return, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, short selling, stochastic process, The Chicago School, the scientific method, too big to fail, transaction costs, tulip mania, Works Progress Administration, yield curve
Sharpe began to ponder the broader implications of Markowitz’s big idea regarding the optimal risk–reward trade-off in the new Modern Portfolio Theory. With a Master’s degree in economics in hand, Sharpe took a job with the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, California, just a few minutes’ drive from UCLA. This job opportunity permitted him to become immersed in an intellectually stimulating environment while he also pursued a PhD at UCLA under the continued mentorship of Professor Alchian. It also allowed him to cross paths with Harry Markowitz himself. The RAND Corporation While at RAND, Sharpe had the opportunity to rub shoulders with some of the greatest minds ever assembled to address the sciences, mathematics, and social sciences demanded in the Cold War-immersed USA. The Early Years 47 RAND’s mission was “to further and promote scientific, educational, and charitable purposes, all for the public welfare and security of the United States of America.”1 Even today, it remains a think tank devoted to research and development that helps to secure the leadership of the USA in security-related studies.
Markowitz’s model is most profound if we accept the assumptions that a security can be priced based on its mean historic return and its Expected return Capital allocation line Efficient portfolio frontier Risk-free return Risk Figure 10.1 The capital allocation line 64 The Rise of the Quants Expected return High risk tolerance Capital allocation line Efficient portfolio frontier Low risk tolerance Risk-free return Risk Figure 10.2 Various choices of risk and return along the capital allocation line variance or standard deviation. However, it also acted as a springboard to an equally elegant interpretation from one of Markowitz’s associates, William Forsyth Sharpe. The Sharpe insight By the time William Forsyth Sharpe introduced himself to Markowitz in 1960 at the RAND Corporation, at the behest of a mentor, Fred Weston at UCLA, Modern Portfolio Theory was still a relatively theoretical insight. Computational challenges prevented a powerful theoretical tool from making the leap from academia into practice. Serendipity was repeated when, following a chance meeting in the waiting room of Jacob Marschak a decade earlier that gave rise to Modern Portfolio Theory, the speculative knock on the office door of Markowitz changed Sharpe’s academic fortunes and would establish a new theory as the foundational tool of securities pricing.
Airbnb, airport security, Al Roth, Alvin Roth, Andrei Shleifer, attribution theory, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Brownian motion, centralized clearinghouse, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, clean water, conceptual framework, constrained optimization, continuous double auction, creative destruction, deferred acceptance, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, experimental subject, first-price auction, framing effect, frictionless, fundamental attribution error, George Akerlof, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Gunnar Myrdal, helicopter parent, information asymmetry, Internet of things, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, iterative process, Jean Tirole, Jeff Bezos, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, late fees, linear programming, Lyft, market clearing, market design, market friction, medical residency, multi-sided market, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Occupy movement, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pets.com, pez dispenser, pre–internet, price mechanism, price stability, prisoner's dilemma, profit motive, proxy bid, RAND corporation, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, school choice, school vouchers, sealed-bid auction, second-price auction, second-price sealed-bid, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, Tacoma Narrows Bridge, technoutopianism, telemarketer, The Market for Lemons, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transaction costs, two-sided market, uranium enrichment, Vickrey auction, Vilfredo Pareto, winner-take-all economy
One, the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics, founded in Colorado Springs in 1932 by businessman and economist Alfred Cowles, aimed to link economic theory more closely to math and statistics in an effort to model the economy. Cowles was inspired by the Great Depression and driven by the desire to bring scientific rigor to the study of the economy. The foundation’s founding motto was “Science is Measurement.”11 The second, the RAND Corporation, first established as a joint project by the Douglas Aircraft Company and the US Department of War in 1945, used game theory to analyze the United States’s geopolitical position relative to the Soviet Union. Game theory—a mathematical approach to analyzing strategic choices—emerged from the work of Princeton mathematician John von Neumann in the 1930s, who collaborated with his economist colleague Oskar Morgenstern to write Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (published in 1944), which launched the field.
To grasp the basic idea behind the way students in Boston, Paris, and Shanghai are matched to schools, doctors get their residencies, and graduates of the Air Force Academy are assigned to postings, it’s easiest to go back to the middle-school gym to figure out a better way of assigning girls and boys to their first dance.2 Lloyd Shapley, Matchmaker In 1962, the mathematician Lloyd Shapley was working at the RAND Corporation (which, you may recall from Chapter 2, along with the Cowles Foundation, helped spur the post–World War II mathematization of economics). Shapley preferred to spend his time thinking about problems like matching girls and boys at the dance rather than the strategic intricacies of the Cold War. We’re fortunate that RAND gave him the freedom to do so. Shapley came from a family of scientists.
Woods store, 1–2 person’s life, value of, 166–167 philanthropic commitments, 72–75 Pillow Pets, 128–129 platforms babysitting, 121 Champagne fairs as, 126–128 competition, 124–126 credit card, 113–116 economics of, 107–112 greed in, 128–129 mobile market, 116 multisided, 14 rules for, 112–117 video game system, 116 See also economics Podolny, Joel, 39, 43 poker, bluffing in, 26 See also chess; Cold War Pontiff, Jeffrey, 11–12 posting system, 79–81, 100–101 POW camps, 7–13, 175–177 power law distributions, 22 practice, market, 14–15 Prendergast, Canice, 154–160 “Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality” (Milgrom and Roberts), 70–71 price discovery, 83 priceless, when something is, 132–133 prisoners’ dilemma game, 178–179 property, expected value of, 56 Radford, R. A., 7–10, 22–23 Ranau Japanese POW camp, 10–11 RAND Corporation, 25, 27, 134–136 reality-based economic modeling, 35–37, 49–51, 141 See also lemon markets theory recessions, 36, 48, 75 Roberts, John, 66, 70–71 Ross, Lee, 177–179 Roth, Al, 140, 141, 163–165 rush, fraternity/sorority, 140 Rutland, VT, 1 Rysman, Marc, 109 Samuelson, Paul, 28–29, 44 Samuelson, William, 55–57 San Fernando Valley gangs, 61–62 San Fers gang, 61–62 Sandakan camp, Borneo, 10–11 Sauget, IL, 168–169 scams internet, 52–55 money-back, 69–70 Scarf, Herbert, 163–164 school choice, in Sweden, 151–152 school to student matching, 138–139, 141–142, 143–149 Schultz, Theodore, 35 Schumpeter, Joseph, 24, 49–50 Scottish auctions, 82 Sears, 115–116 second-bid auction, 81–82 second-price sealed-bid auctions, 87–89 “Selection process starts with choices, ends with luck” (article), 146 self-destructive behaviors, signaling theory and, 67–68 selfish, markets making us, 177–179 seller misrepresentation, 52–55 sellers, knowing more than buyers, 41, 44–55 Seven Minute Abs, 172 Shakin’ Cat Midgets gang, 61 Shapley, Lloyd, 134–136, 137–138, 163–164 Shapley-Gale algorithm, 137–140 Shi, Peng, 148 Shleifer, Andrei, 180–181 shopping malls, as two-sided markets, 122–123 Shoup, Carl, 85 sick organizations, 142–143 signaling model applications of, 66–68 commitment signs, 62–66 competitive signaling, 69–71 integrity, 71–75 Silicon Valley, market friction and, 169–173 Skoll, Jeff, 39–40, 43, 51 Smith, Adam, 21 Snider, James, 42 social efficiency, auctions, 89 social well-being, assessing, 22 Solow, Robert, 35 Solow model, 35 Sönmez, Tayfun, 144 Sony’s Blu-ray format war, 125–126 sorority rush, 140 spectrum auction theory, 102–103 Spence, Michael, 62–66 Stack, Charles, 42–43 Stalag VII-A POW camp market, 5–6, 7–10, 13 stamp collecting, 82–84 Stiglitz, Joseph, 35–36, 76, 182 strategy proofness mechanism, 145 student to school matching, 138–139, 141–142, 143–149 Summers, Larry, 166–167 Super Bowl advertising, 70–71 supply and demand, 96 survival rates, of Japanese vs.
The Washington Connection and Third World Fascism by Noam Chomsky
anti-communist, business climate, colonial rule, declining real wages, deliberate practice, European colonialism, friendly fire, Gini coefficient, income inequality, income per capita, land reform, land tenure, new economy, RAND corporation, strikebreaker, union organizing
To cite only one of innumerable examples, the Wall Street Journal published a forecast by former CIA analyst, Samuel Adams, that 100,000 people would be murdered in the event of a Communist victory in Vietnam, which relied heavily on a hysterical propaganda tract by Craig Hosmer put out by the Rand Corporation.110 The Journal refused at the time to publish any criticism of the Adams piece and has subsequently never gotten around to discussing where the Adams forecast went wrong. For readers of the Journal, the Vietnamese Communists might be said to have killed 100,000 people in a postwar bloodbath, an “Asian Auschwitz”(see note 109, chapter 2). It is one of the public functions of both right-wing and official think tanks like the Rand Corporation, the Hoover Institution, the Hudson Institute, and academic social science scholarship more broadly, to show that they are evil and we are good—though we occasionally err.
Bishop Dom Pedro Casaldaliga, “The Gospel Is My Weapon,” 12 October 1975, Latin America Press (6 November 1975). 39. “I Have Heard the Cry of my People,” a statement signed by 18 Catholic religious leaders of Northeast Brazil, 6 May 1973, IDOC translation and reprint, p. 43. 40. E. Bradford Burns, “Brazil: The Imitative Society,” The Nation, 10 July 1972, quoted in Black, op. cit., p. 261. 41. Konrad Kellen, “1971 and Beyond: The View From Hanoi,” Rand Corporation (June 1971), pp. 14-15. 42. The flavor of “our” South Vietnam may be captured, however, in the finding by one former AID employee: “I have personally witnessed poor urban people literally quaking with fear when I questioned them about the activity of the secret police in a post election campaign. One poor fisherman in Da Nang, animated and talkative in complaining about economic conditions, clammed up in near terror when queried about the police....”
As Buttinger remarks, “It required a tidal wave of falsehood to persuade Americans into accepting the myth that not French, but Communist, aggression was responsible for the first Indochina war” (ibid., p. 22), as was constantly trumpeted by Dean Acheson and a host of sycophants. 15. Jeffrey Race, War Comes to Long An, University of California, 1971, p. 197; to date, the best account of the origins of the insurgency under the U.S.-Diem regime. There is also important material on this subject in the massive “Vietcong Motivation and Morale Study” undertaken by the Rand Corporation. For an interesting study based on this generally ignored material, see David Hunt, “Organizing for Revolution in Vietnam,” Radical America, vol. 8, nos. 1-2, 1974. See also Georges Chaffard, Les deux guerres du Vietnam, La Table Ronde, Paris, 1969. U.S. government sources, in addition to the Pentagon Papers, also contain much useful information: see Robert L. Sansom, The Economics of Insurgency In the Mekong Delta, MIT Press, 1970; Douglas Pike, Viet Cong, MIT Press, 1966 (here, one must be careful to distinguish the documentary evidence presented from the conclusions asserted); William A.
Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought by Andrew W. Lo
Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, algorithmic trading, Andrei Shleifer, Arthur Eddington, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, asset-backed security, backtesting, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Bonfire of the Vanities, bonus culture, break the buck, Brownian motion, business process, butterfly effect, capital asset pricing model, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Carmen Reinhart, Chance favours the prepared mind, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computerized trading, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Diane Coyle, diversification, diversified portfolio, double helix, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Ernest Rutherford, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Flash crash, Fractional reserve banking, framing effect, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, housing crisis, incomplete markets, index fund, interest rate derivative, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Meriwether, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, martingale, merger arbitrage, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, money market fund, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, Nick Leeson, old-boy network, out of africa, p-value, paper trading, passive investing, Paul Lévy, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, predatory finance, prediction markets, price discovery process, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative hedge fund, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, RAND corporation, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, short selling, sovereign wealth fund, statistical arbitrage, Steven Pinker, stochastic process, survivorship bias, The Great Moderation, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, too big to fail, transaction costs, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, ultimatum game, Upton Sinclair, US Airways Flight 1549, Walter Mischel, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game
But there are many others. 52 • Chapter 2 One of the first cracks in the orthodox view of market rationality comes from the high-stakes world of the Cold War. The RAND Corporation is a legendary—some would say notorious—think tank based in Santa Monica, California. RAND was founded in 1948 to maintain the close relationship between scientific research and military planning that had developed during the Second World War.7 As the nation’s leading technological research institute, RAND attracted “the best and the brightest” academics across a wide assortment of scientific fields (although the nearby California beaches didn’t hurt), and put them to work on the most pressing problems of the Cold War. RAND went out of its way to include economists in its scientific mix: in fact, twenty-two Nobel Prize winners in economics have worked at the RAND Corporation over the years. One of the bright young economists at RAND was an unusual man named Daniel Ellsberg.
As a Harvard fellow, Ellsberg gave a series of popular lectures at the Boston Public Library on political decision making in the uncertain conditions of the Cold War. Dramatically titled “The Art of Coercion,” and broadcast by WGBH radio, Ellsberg’s lectures cemented his reputation as a theorist and public intellectual in the making.8 Ellsberg’s mixture of the scholar and the soldier proved irresistible to the RAND Corporation, even though his publication history was thin and his doctorate unfinished. Ellsberg was hired by RAND in 1959, where he was soon immersed in the fine details of strategic nuclear war planning. In that hothouse environment, Ellsberg was a deft conversationalist who loved to kibitz in a seminar or over someone’s shoulder, but Ellsberg’s frustrated colleagues urged him to write up his results in academic style.
Almost a century ago, the economist Frank Knight introduced a useful distinction between risk and uncertainty into the economic lexicon: he called “risk” the kind of randomness that can be measured or quantified, and he called “uncertainty” the kind of randomness that can’t.10 The roulette wheel, blackjack, or the lottery are examples of Knightian risk; finding intelligent life outside our solar system, exploiting fusion as a new source of energy, or surviving a nuclear war with Russia are examples of Knightian uncertainty. (Ellsberg’s own distinction between risk and uncertainty may have led him to leak the Pentagon Papers from the top-secret safes of the RAND Corporation to the pages of the New York Times during the Vietnam War.) Knight redefined risk and uncertainty for entirely practical reasons: he wanted to explain why some entrepreneurs made tremendous fortunes in their businesses, while others barely made enough to survive from day to day. Knight’s answer was simple. For industries with Knightian risk, where the random element of the business could be measured, it would be measured, and the forces of competition would eventually drive excess profits down to zero as that particular business became commoditized.
Red Plenty by Francis Spufford
affirmative action, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, asset allocation, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, cognitive dissonance, computer age, double helix, Fellow of the Royal Society, John von Neumann, Kitchen Debate, linear programming, market clearing, New Journalism, oil shock, Philip Mirowski, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit motive, RAND corporation, Simon Kuznets, the scientific method
For an accessible way in, see Alec Nove, Economic History of the USSR, and Paul R. Gregory and Robert C. Stuart, Russian and Soviet Economic Performance and Structure, 6th edn. (Reading MA: Addison-Wesley, 1998). For Western calculations during the Cold War, see Abram Bergson and Simon Kuznets, eds, Economic Trends in the Soviet Union (Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press, 1963); Janet G. Chapman, Real Wages in Soviet Russia Since 1928, RAND Corporation report R-371-PR (Santa Monica CA, October 1963); Franklyn D. Holzman, ed., Readings on the Soviet Economy (Chicago: Rand-McNally, 1962). As a useful retrospective, see Angus Maddison, ‘Measuring the Performance of a Communist Command Economy: An Assessment of the CIA Estimates for the USSR’, Review of Income and Wealth vol. 44 no. 3 (September 1998), pp. 307–23. For Soviet reassessments of the historic growth record during perestroika, see Tatyana Zaslavskaya, ‘The Novosibirsk Report’, English translation by Teresa Cherfas, Survey 1 (1984), pp. 88–108; Abel Aganbegyan, Challenge: The Economics of Perestroika, translated by Michael Barratt Brown (London: I.B.Tauris, 1988); and most pessimistic of all, G.I.Khanin’s calculations, as described in Mark Harrison, ‘Soviet economic growth since 1928: The alternative statistics of G.I.Khanin’, Europe–Asia Studies vol. 45 no. 1 (1993), pp. 141–67.
: see Graham, ‘A Cultural Analysis of the Russo-Soviet Anekdot’. 5 New cybernetics institutes and departments had sprung up: see Gerovitch, From Newspeak to Cyberspeak. 6 But Nemchinov himself was no longer in charge: for a sharp-tongued account of his sudden loss of standing, and the appointment of Academician Fedorenko to TSEMI instead, see Katsenelinboigen, Soviet Economic Thought and Political Power in the USSR. Trying to read the situation from California eight years later, Simon Kassel, Soviet Cybernetics Research: A Preliminary Study of Organisations and Personalities, RAND Corporation report R-909-ARPA (Santa Monica CA, December 1971), pp. 86–7, remarked that Fedorenko seemed to be ‘without observable experience in computer technology or automation’, and wondered whether this was why TSEMI ‘appears to have gradually changed from an economics laboratory, engaged in the realization of a preconceived theoretical system of ideas, into an operational support agency for the Gosplan’.
For an accessible way in, see Alec Nove, Economic History of the USSR, and Paul R. Gregory and Robert C. Stuart, Russian and Soviet Economic Performance and Structure, 6th edn. (Reading MA: Addison-Wesley, 1998). For Western calculations during the Cold War, see Abram Bergson and Simon Kuznets, eds, Economic Trends in the Soviet Union (Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press, 1963); Janet G. Chapman, Real Wages in Soviet Russia Since 1928, RAND Corporation report R-371-PR (Santa Monica CA, October 1963); Franklyn D. Holzman, ed., Readings on the Soviet Economy (Chicago: Rand-McNally, 1962). As a useful retrospective, see Angus Maddison, ‘Measuring the Performance of a Communist Command Economy: An Assessment of the CIA Estimates for the USSR’, Review of Income and Wealth vol. 44 no. 3 (September 1998), pp. 307–23. For Soviet reassessments of the historic growth record during perestroika, see Tatyana Zaslavskaya, ‘The Novosibirsk Report’, English translation by Teresa Cherfas, Survey 1 (1984), pp. 88–108; Abel Aganbegyan, Challenge: The Economics of Perestroika, translated by Michael Barratt Brown (London: I.B.Tauris, 1988); and most pessimistic of all, G.I.Khanin’s calculations, as described in Mark Harrison, ‘Soviet economic growth since 1928: The alternative statistics of G.I.Khanin’, Europe–Asia Studies vol. 45 no. 1 (1993), pp. 141–67.
Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism From Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda by John Mueller
airport security, Albert Einstein, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Doomsday Clock, energy security, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, long peace, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, oil shock, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, side project, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War
The precise calculations and the cool, comfortable vocabulary were coming all too commonly to be grasped not merely as tools of desperation but as genuine reflections of the nature of nuclear war.22 The central concept explored and developed in that living dreamworld was deterrence. The thinking process is nicely summarized in the recent recollections of Brian Jenkins, who, as an analyst at the RAND Corporation, has been at the center of this intellectual development for decades. The italics are mine: Each [side in the cold war] possessed an arsenal capable of ending modern civilization. Avoiding nuclear war became the major preoccupation of leaders of both sides. This required military planners to persuade their opponents that neither side could gain sufficient advantage to make starting a nuclear war even thinkable—neither could escape annihilation by launching a preemptive attack.
Paper presented at the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association. San Francisco, CA, 26–29 March. Jenkins, Brian Michael. 1975. “International Terrorism: A New Mode of Conflict.” In International Terrorism and World Security, ed. David Carlton and Carolo Schaerf. New York: Wiley, 13–49. ______. 2006. Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy and Strengthening Ourselves. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. ______. 2008. Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? Amherst, NY: Prometheus. Jentleson, Bruce W., and Christopher A. Whytock. 2005/06. “Who ‘Won’ Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy.” International Security 30(3) Winter: 47–86. Jervis, Robert. 1979. “Deterrence Theory Revisited.” World Politics 31(2) January: 289–324. ______. 1980. “The Impact of the Korean War on the Cold War.”
“Ballistic Missiles and Chemical Weapons: The Legacy of the Iran-Iraq War.” International Security 15(2) Fall: 5–34. McNeill, William H. 1982. The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society since A.D. 1000. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. McPhee, John. 1974. The Curve of Binding Energy. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux. Meade, Charles, and Roger C. Molander. 2006. Considering the Effects of a Catastrophic Terrorist Attack. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Mearsheimer, John J. 1983. Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. ______. 1984/85. “Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in Europe.” International Security 9(3) Winter: 19–47. ______. 1988. Liddell Hart and the Weight of History. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. ______. 1990. “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War.” International Security 15(1) Summer: 5–56. ______. 1993.
23andMe, Airbnb, airport security, AltaVista, Anne Wojcicki, augmented reality, Benjamin Mako Hill, Black Swan, Brewster Kahle, Brian Krebs, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, citizen journalism, cloud computing, congestion charging, disintermediation, drone strike, Edward Snowden, experimental subject, failed state, fault tolerance, Ferguson, Missouri, Filter Bubble, Firefox, friendly fire, Google Chrome, Google Glasses, hindsight bias, informal economy, Internet Archive, Internet of things, Jacob Appelbaum, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, lifelogging, linked data, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, moral panic, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, national security letter, Network effects, Occupy movement, payday loans, pre–internet, price discrimination, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, RFID, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, South China Sea, stealth mode startup, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, TaskRabbit, telemarketer, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, urban planning, WikiLeaks, zero day
Daniel Engber (2 Jul 2014), “The cannibal cop goes free, but what about the murderous mechanic?” Slate, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/crime/2014/07/the_cannibal_cop_gilberto_valle_goes_free_what_about_michael_van_hise_and.html. Already law enforcement agencies: Walter L. Perry et al. (2013), “Predictive policing: The role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations,” RAND Corporation, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/243830.pdf. US National Institute of Justice (13 Jan 2014), “Predictive policing research,” http://www.nij.gov/topics/law-enforcement/strategies/predictive-policing/Pages/research.aspx. This notion of making certain crimes: Michael L. Rich (Mar 2013), “Should we make crime impossible?” Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy 36, http://www.harvard-jlpp.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/36_2_795_Rich.pdf.
the IRS uses data mining: US Government Accountability Office (2013), “Offshore tax evasion: IRS has collected billions of dollars, but may be missing continued evasion,” Report GAO-13-318, http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/653369.pdf. IBM Corporation (2011), “New York State Tax: How predictive modeling improves tax revenues and citizen equity,” https://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/leadership/nystax/assets/pdf/0623-NYS-Tax_Paper.pdf. the police use it: Walter L. Perry et al. (2013), “Predictive policing: The role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations,” RAND Corporation, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/243830.pdf. Terrorist plots are different: John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart (2011), Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security, Oxford University Press, chap. 2, http://books.google.com/books?id=jyYGL2jZBC4C. even highly accurate … systems: Jeff Jonas and Jim Harper (11 Dec 2006), “Effective counterterrorism and the limited role of predictive data mining,” Cato Institute, http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/effective-counterterrorism-limited-role-predictive-data-mining.
Kaspersky Government Cybersecurity Forum, http://kasperskygovforum.com. These tend to be totalitarian: Here’s a proposal to institute a sort of “cyber draft” to conscript networks in the event of a cyberwar. Susan W. Brenner and Leo L. Clarke (Oct 2010), “Civilians in cyberwarfare: Conscripts,” Vanderbilt Journal of Trans-national Law 43, http://www.vanderbilt.edu/jotl/manage/wp-content/uploads/Brenner-_Final_1.pdf. The 1878 Posse Comitatus Act: RAND Corporation (20 Mar 2001), “Overview of the Posse Comitatus Act,” in Preparing the U.S. Army for Homeland Security, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1251/MR1251.AppD.pdf. Charles Doyle and Jennifer K. Elsea (16 Aug 2012), “The Posse Comitatus Act and related matters: The use of the military to execute civilian law,” Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42659.pdf.
A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, AI winter, airport security, Apple II, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bill Duvall, bioinformatics, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, call centre, cellular automata, Chris Urmson, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collective bargaining, computer age, computer vision, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data acquisition, Dean Kamen, deskilling, don't be evil, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Hofstadter, Dynabook, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, factory automation, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, future of work, Galaxy Zoo, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Grace Hopper, Gunnar Myrdal, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hacker Ethic, haute couture, hive mind, hypertext link, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, information retrieval, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the wheel, Jacques de Vaucanson, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Conway, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, loose coupling, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, medical residency, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, natural language processing, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Stallman, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, Sand Hill Road, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, semantic web, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Singularitarianism, skunkworks, Skype, social software, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, strong AI, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, telepresence, telepresence robot, Tenerife airport disaster, The Coming Technological Singularity, the medium is the message, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight, zero-sum game
This results in a system of almost unlimited productive capacity which requires progressively less human labor.”15 The resulting National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress would include a remarkable group ranging from Reuther, Thomas J. Watson Jr. of IBM, and Edwin Land of Polaroid, to Robert Solow, the MIT economist, and Daniel Bell, the Columbia sociologist. When the 115-page report appeared at the end of 1966 it was accompanied by 1,787 pages of appendices including special reports by outside experts. The 232-page analysis of the impact of computing by Paul Armer of the RAND Corporation did a remarkable job of predicting the impact of information technology. Indeed, the headings in the report have proven true over the years: “Computers Are Becoming Faster, Smaller, and Less Expensive”; “Computing Power Will Become Available Much the Same as Electricity and Telephone Service Are Today”; “Information Itself Will Become Inexpensive and Readily Available”; “Computers Will Become Easier to Use”; “Computers Will Be Used to Process Pictorial Images and Graphic Information”; and “Computers Will Be Used to Process Language,” among others.
Although Weizenbaum’s critique was about the morality of building intelligent machines, the more heated debate was over whether such machines were even possible. Seymour Papert, Winograd’s thesis advisor, had become engaged in a bitter debate with Hubert Dreyfus, a philosopher and Heidegger acolyte, who, just one decade after McCarthy had coined the term, would ridicule the field in a scathing paper entitled “Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence,” published in 1965 by the RAND Corporation.11 (Years later, in the 2014 movie remake of RoboCop, the fictional U.S. senator who sponsors legislation banning police robots is named Hubert Dreyfus in homage.) Dreyfus ran afoul of AI researchers in the early sixties when they showed up in his Heidegger course and belittled philosophers for failing to understand human intelligence after studying it for centuries.12 It was a slight he would not forget.
_r=0. 9.David W. Dunlap, “Looking Back: 1978—‘Farewell, Etaoin Shrdlu,’” Times Insider, New York Times, November 13, 2014. 10.Terry Winograd, “Procedures as a Representation for Data in a Computer Program for Understanding Natural Language,” MIT AI Technical Report 235, February 1971, 38–39, http://hci.stanford.edu/winograd/shrdlu/AITR-235.pdf. 11.Hubert Dreyfus, “Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence,” RAND Corporation, 1965, http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3244.html. 12.Hubert Dreyfus, “Why Heideggerian AI Failed and How Fixing It Would Require Making It More Heideggerian,” http://leidl mair.at/doc/WhyHeideggerianAIFailed.pdf. 13.Dreyfus, “Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence.” 14.Seymour Papert, “The Artificial Intelligence of Hubert L. Dreyfus: A Budget of Fallacies,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Project Mac, Memo.
Life Inc.: How the World Became a Corporation and How to Take It Back by Douglas Rushkoff
affirmative action, Amazon Mechanical Turk, banks create money, big-box store, Bretton Woods, car-free, colonial exploitation, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, computer age, corporate governance, credit crunch, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, death of newspapers, don't be evil, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, easy for humans, difficult for computers, financial innovation, Firefox, full employment, global village, Google Earth, greed is good, Howard Rheingold, income per capita, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Kevin Kelly, laissez-faire capitalism, loss aversion, market bubble, market design, Marshall McLuhan, Milgram experiment, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, negative equity, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, peak oil, peer-to-peer, place-making, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, price stability, principal–agent problem, private military company, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, short selling, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, social software, Steve Jobs, Telecommunications Act of 1996, telemarketer, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, trade route, trickle-down economics, union organizing, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, Victor Gruen, white flight, working poor, Works Progress Administration, Y2K, young professional, zero-sum game
” — MARGARET THATCHER If our economic theorists seem particularly coldhearted and zero-sum in their thinking about human behavior, we might blame it at least in part on the Cold War. By the 1950s, most of the best mathematicians and social scientists had been hired either directly or through grants to work out America’s nuclear-war-game scenarios against the Soviet Union. In a situation where the enemy might be signing a nonproliferation treaty while actually stockpiling an arsenal, paranoia made good sense. The think-tank logicians at the Rand Corporation called it “the prisoner’s dilemma.” The scenario went something like this: Two suspects are arrested by the police, who have insufficient evidence to convict either one. If one betrays the other, who remains silent, the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives a ten-year sentence. If both remain silent, they both get six months. If both betray each other, they each get a five-year sentence.
In Reagan’s persona as well as his politics, the independent, shoot-from-the-hip individualism of the Marlboro Man became compatible—even synergistic—with the economics and culture of self-interest. No-blink brinksmanship with the “evil” Soviet empire, the dismantling of domestic government institutions, the decertification of labor unions, and the promotion of unfettered corporate capitalism all came out of the same combination of Rand Corporation game theory and the 1960s antipsychiatry movement. Regulations designed to protect the environment, worker safety, and consumer rights were summarily decried as unnecessary government meddling in the marketplace. As if channeling Friedrich Hayek by way of R. D. Laing, Reagan shrank the social-welfare system by closing the public-psychiatric-hospital system. Almost simultaneously in the U.K., just a few months after becoming head of the Conservatives, Margaret Thatcher explicitly made Hayek her party’s patron saint.
The principles of the intentionally corporatized marketplace are not embedded in the human genome, nor is self-interested behavior an innate human instinct. If anything, it’s the other way around: a landscape defined by the competitive market will promote self-interested behavior. It’s the surest path to a corporatist society. Maybe that was the objective all along. Central Currency The economy in which we all participate is no more natural than the game scenarios John Nash set up to test the Rand Corporation’s secretaries. It is a model for human interaction, based on a set of false assumptions about human behavior. Even if we buy the proposition that people act as self-interestedly as they possibly can, we must accept the reality that people’s actual choices don’t correspond with their own financial well-being. They do not act in their own best financial interests. People are either both greedy and stupid, or something else entirely.
activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, Airbnb, Atul Gawande, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, computer age, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, deskilling, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Firefox, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Google Glasses, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Internet of things, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, lifelogging, medical malpractice, medical residency, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, personalized medicine, pets.com, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, Snapchat, software as a service, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the payments system, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Toyota Production System, Uber for X, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Yogi Berra
Hirschtick, “A Piece of My Mind: Copy-and-Paste,” Journal of the American Medical Association 295:2335–2336 (2006). 72 Ross Koppel, a University of Pennsylvania sociologist Interview of Koppel by the author, July 18, 2014. 73 In 2013, Steve Stack, board chair of the American Medical Association Quoted in F. Quinn, “Why Are Doctors Frustrated in Using EHR?,” MedCity News, November 7, 2013, available at http://medcitynews.com/2013/11/doctors-frustratedusing-ehr/. 73 investigators at the RAND Corporation M. W. Friedberg, P. G. Chen, K. R. Van Busum, et al., “Factors Affecting Physician Professional Satisfaction and Their Implications for Patient Care, Health Systems, and Health Policy” (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013). 73 “We had one question in the interview guide” Interview of Mark Friedberg by the author, July 25, 2014. 74 “Our study does not suggest that physicians are Luddites” M. Friedberg, F. J. Crosson, and M. Tutty, “Physicians’ Concerns About Electronic Health Records: Implications and Steps Towards Solutions,” Health Affairs blog, March 11, 2014, available at http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2014/03/11/physicians-concerns-about- electronic-health-records-implications-and-steps-towards-solutions/. 74 A separate 2013 survey reported “New IDC Health Insights Survey of Ambulatory Providers Reveals Dissatisfaction with Ambulatory EHR,” press release, November 13, 2013, available at http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?
In 2013, Steve Stack, board chair of the American Medical Association and a true believer in healthcare technology, explained the reasons: “EHRs have been and largely remain clunky, confusing, and complex. Though an 18-month-old child can operate an iPhone, physicians with seven to ten years of postcollegiate education are brought to their knees by their electronic health records.” That same year, investigators at the RAND Corporation reported the results of an indepth study of 30 physician practices designed to assess the effects of healthcare reform on doctors’ professional satisfaction. The researchers did not set out to examine physicians’ reactions to their EHRs; in fact, their initial plans called for a survey containing not a single question about computers. Before administering the surveys, the investigators sat down with groups of doctors to be sure they weren’t missing something.
See Problem-Oriented Medical Record privacy, 13–14 See also Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Problem-Oriented Medical Record, 46, 79 productivity, 244 productivity paradox, 244–253 Quantified Self movement, 117, 122 radiologists alienation of, 56–58 busyness of, 58–59 economic pressures, 59–60 nighthawks, 60–61 replacement by computers, 61–62 resisting isolation, 62 radiology, 50 impact of PACS on, 53–56 teleradiology, 60–61 transition from film to computerized radiology, 51 RAND Corporation study of healthcare reform’s effects on doctor’s professional satisfaction, 73, 74 study on healthcare costs, 81, 247 rationing, 15 Reason, James, 131 regional health information exchanges (RHIOs), 187 Reider, Jacob, 211–212, 229–230 Reiser, Stanley, 30, 33, 41 relational coordination, 57 relationships, 77–78 demise of, 268 See also doctor-patient relationships Relman, Arnold “Bud”, 23–25 RHIOs.
How I Became a Quant: Insights From 25 of Wall Street's Elite by Richard R. Lindsey, Barry Schachter
Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, Andrew Wiles, Antoine Gombaud: Chevalier de Méré, asset allocation, asset-backed security, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Black-Scholes formula, Bonfire of the Vanities, Bretton Woods, Brownian motion, business process, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, centre right, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computerized markets, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, discounted cash flows, disintermediation, diversification, Donald Knuth, Edward Thorp, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, financial innovation, fixed income, full employment, George Akerlof, Gordon Gekko, hiring and firing, implied volatility, index fund, interest rate derivative, interest rate swap, John von Neumann, linear programming, Loma Prieta earthquake, Long Term Capital Management, margin call, market friction, market microstructure, martingale, merger arbitrage, Myron Scholes, Nick Leeson, P = NP, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, pensions crisis, performance metric, prediction markets, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Silicon Valley, six sigma, sorting algorithm, statistical arbitrage, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, stochastic process, systematic trading, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, the scientific method, too big to fail, trade route, transaction costs, transfer pricing, value at risk, volatility smile, Wiener process, yield curve, young professional
So off I went across the river for courses in the mathematics of stock market prices and options. They were more of a diversion than an avocation, but the accident of the brackets had more influence subsequently than I could have imagined at the time. Harry also enlisted me as the department’s representative on the Committee on Graduate Education, which gave me a reason to hang out in the dean’s office. He was on the board of the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, and suggested it might be a nice place to work, right on the beach with no blizzards. I put it on my list. Grey Silver Shadow When the time came to find a real job, I was going out to UCLA to interview for a faculty position, and I added RAND to the schedule. UCLA JWPR007-Lindsey 14 May 7, 2007 16:12 h ow i b e cam e a quant told me to stay in the Holiday Inn on Wilshire Boulevard, rent a car, and come out in February of 1977.
Formerly he was first vice president of the Prudential Insurance Company of America, where he served as senior managing director of a quantitative equity management affiliate of the Prudential Asset Management Company and managing director of the discretionary asset allocation unit. Prior to that, he was on the finance faculty of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and consulted to the Rand Corporation. Dr. Jacobs has a BA from Columbia College, an MS in Operations Research and Computer Science from Columbia University’s School of Engineering and Applied Science, an MSIA from Carnegie Mellon University’s Graduate School of Industrial Administration, and an MA in Applied Economics and a PhD in Finance from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is an associate editor of The Journal of Trading and on the Advisory Board of The Journal of Portfolio Management.
Kritzman received an MBA in business at New York University. David Leinweber is the founder of two pioneering financial technology firms. Clients at his consulting and software development business include some of the world’s largest investment managers and hedge funds. These tasks involve trading systems and automated analysis of textual and Internet information sources. All build on his history of innovation in financial technology. At the RAND Corporation, he directed research on real-time applications of artificial intelligence that led to the founding of Integrated Analytics Corporation. IAC was acquired by the Investment Technology Group, (NYSE:ITG) and, with the addition of electronic order execution, its product became QuantEx, an electronic execution system still in use for millions of institutional equity transactions daily. Large institutions concerned with controlling transactions costs and proprietary traders found them particularly valuable.
Multitude: War and Democracy in the Age of Empire by Michael Hardt, Antonio Negri
affirmative action, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, conceptual framework, continuation of politics by other means, David Graeber, Defenestration of Prague, deskilling, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, global village, Howard Rheingold, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, Joseph Schumpeter, labour mobility, land reform, land tenure, late capitalism, liberation theology, means of production, Naomi Klein, new economy, Paul Samuelson, private military company, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Richard Stallman, Slavoj Žižek, The Chicago School, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, transaction costs, union organizing, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus
For some varied examples, see Max Horkheimer and Theodor Adorno, The Dialectic of Enlightenment (New York: Continuum, 1972); Guy Debord, The Society of the Spectacle (New York: Zone, 1994); Paul Virilio, Desert Screen: War at the Speed of Light (New York: Continuum, 2002). 73 See John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, eds., Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy (Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2001). 74 For an excellent history of U.S. counterinsurgency strategy, which focuses on the behaviorist paradigm at military think tanks like the Rand Corporation, see Ron Robin, The Making of the Cold War Enemy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001). The major part of the book deals with the Korean War, but there is a fascinating chapter on the shift in counterinsurgency strategy during the Vietnam War away from attempting “constructively” to change the psychology of the enemy—winning hearts and minds—toward simply and coercively trying to change the enemy’s behavior. 75 Arquilla and Ronfeldt consider swarming the primary military strategy of netwar.
The major part of the book deals with the Korean War, but there is a fascinating chapter on the shift in counterinsurgency strategy during the Vietnam War away from attempting “constructively” to change the psychology of the enemy—winning hearts and minds—toward simply and coercively trying to change the enemy’s behavior. 75 Arquilla and Ronfeldt consider swarming the primary military strategy of netwar. See John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, Swarming and the Future of Conflict (Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2000). 76 Much of the U.S. writing on unilateralism is tinged with the hypocritical pathos that Rudyard Kipling’s notion of the “white man’s burden” carried in a previous era. For laments on the solitude and reluctance of the United States in a unilaterialist role, see Samuel Huntington, “The Lonely Superpower,” Foreign Affairs 78, no. 2 (March-April 1999): 35-49; and Richard Haass, The Reluctant Sheriff: The United States After the Cold War (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1997). 77 We should note that human rights has become fundamental—a European legal philosopher from the last century would say “dogmatic”—in the field of international law.
We will return to discuss these electronic movements when we consider questions of immaterial property in chapter 2. 110 See, for example, Arquilla and Ronfeldt, Networks and Netwar. 111 Pierre Clastres, Society Against the State: Essays in Political Anthropology, trans. Robert Hurley in collaboration with Abe Stein (New York: Zone, 1987), especially chapter 11. 112 See Arquilla and Ronfeldt, Swarming and the Future of Conflict (Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2000). 113 See, for example, James Kennedy and Russell Eberhart with Yuhai Shi, Swarm Intelligence (San Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 2001). 114 Kennedy and Russell, with Shi, 103-104. For a more colorful account of insect communication, see Karl von Frisch, The Dancing Bees, trans. Dora Ilse (London: Methuen, 1954). 115 Emile Zola, La debacle (Paris: Charpentier, 1899), 210. 116 See Kristin Ross, The Emergence of Social Space: Rimbaud and the Paris Commune (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1988), 105.
Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State by Dana Priest, William M. Arkin
airport security, business intelligence, dark matter, drone strike, friendly fire, Google Earth, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, immigration reform, index card, Julian Assange, profit motive, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, WikiLeaks
For this reason, contractors are specifically prohibited from carrying out what the federal regulations call “inherently government functions.” One reason for this is obvious: “Their interest is just not the interest of the government. It’s the interest of their company,” said Bernard Rostker, the Pentagon’s former policy adviser on recruitment matters. Rostker studies government workforce issues at the Rand Corporation. Despite these rules, in Top Secret America, contractors carry out inherently governmental work all the time in every intelligence and counterterrorism agency. What started as a clever temporary fix has turned into a dependency that calls into question whether the federal government is still even able to stand on its own. Consider the following: At the Department of Homeland Security, the number of contractors equals the number of federal employees.
Longoria killed two enemy snipers, helped recapture the escapees, moved wounded Pakistani casualties, and tended to seventeen dead Pakistani soldiers in what the Pentagon called “the bloodiest escape and firefight in Pakistan during Operation Enduring Freedom.” For his efforts, he was awarded the Bronze Star in a private ceremony. In contrast to its successes, which usually went unpublicized, JSOC’s mistakes reverberated around the world. In what the Rand Corporation labeled “the single most serious errant attack of the entire war,” on July 1, 2002, a JSOC-operated AC-130 gunship fired upon and killed at least forty-eight civilians in the small village of Kakarak in the Deh Rawod area of Uruzgan province. The incident took many inside the Pentagon by surprise, a senior air force officer said at the time, as most people had already shifted their attention to preparing for war with Iraq.
The National Security Enterprise (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2011). Bradley Graham. By His Own Rules: The Ambitions, Successes, and Ultimate Failures of Donald Rumsfeld (New York: Public Affairs, 2009). Rebecca Grant. The First 600 Days of Combat: The U.S. Air Force in the Global War on Terrorism (Washington, DC: IRIS Press, 2004). Benjamin S. Lambeth. Air Power Against Terror: America’s Conduct of Operation Enduring Freedom (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 2005). Matt J. Martin (with Charles W. Sasser). Predator: The Remote-Control Air War over Iraq and Afghanistan: A Pilot’s Story (Minneapolis, MN: Zenith Press, 2010). General Richard B. Myers, USAF, Ret. (with Malcolm McConnell). Eyes on the Horizon: Serving on the Front Lines of National Security (New York: Threshold Editions [A Division of Simon & Schuster, Inc.], 2009). Sean Naylor.
Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance by Noam Chomsky
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, Doomsday Clock, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, invisible hand, liberation theology, long peace, market fundamentalism, Monroe Doctrine, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment
China was particularly alarmed, Steinbruner and Lewis write, by a 1998 long-range planning document of the US Space Command outlining a new concept of “global engagement,” including “space-based strike capabilities” that would allow the US to attack any country and to “deny similar capability to any other countries,” another Clinton-era precursor to the National Security Strategy of September 2002. The UN Conference on Disarmament has been deadlocked since 1998 by China’s insistence on maintaining the use of space for peaceful means and Washington’s refusal to agree, alienating many allies and creating conditions for confrontation.8 A May 2003 Rand Corporation study concludes that “the potential for an accidental or unauthorized nuclear missile launch in Russia or the United States has grown over the past decade despite warmer U.S.-Russian relations.” Neglecting these risks “could produce possibly the greatest disaster in modern history, and possibly in world history,” said former senator Sam Nunn, cochairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which funded the report.
And they know as well as US military analysts that “flights by U.S. EP-3 planes near China,” such as the one shot down in early 2001, engendering a mini-crisis, “are not just for passive surveillance; the aircraft also collect information used to develop nuclear war plans.”25 China’s interpretation of BMD is shared by US strategic analysts, in virtually the same words: BMD “is not simply a shield but an enabler of U.S. action,” a Rand Corporation study observed. Others agree. BMD “will facilitate the more effective application of U.S. military power abroad,” Andrew Bacevich writes in the conservative National Interest: “by insulating the homeland from reprisal—albeit in a limited way—missile defense will underwrite the capacity and willingness of the United States to ‘shape’ the environment elsewhere.” He cites approvingly the conclusion of Lawrence Kaplan in the liberal New Republic that “missile defense isn’t really meant to protect America.
Clinton: see William J. Broad, “U.S.-Russian Talks Revive Old Debates on Nuclear Warnings,” New York Times, 1 May 2000, sec. A, p. 8. 8 Steinbruner and Lewis, “The Unsettled Legacy of the Cold War,” op. cit. 9 David Ruppe, “Nuclear Weapons: RAND Report Says Accidental Launch Threat Growing,” Global Security Newswire, 22 May 2003. Online at: http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/newswires/2003_5_22.html. Rand Corporation, Beyond the Nuclear Shadow, May 2003. Online at: http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1666/. Paul Webster, “Just Like Old Times,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 4 (July-August 2003): p. 30. Online at: http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/ja03/ja03webster.html. 10 Judith Miller, “Study Urges More Action to Cut Risks >From Weapons Stockpiles,” New York Times, 20 January 2003, sec.
Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths by Steven M. Gorelick
California gold rush, carbon footprint, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, income per capita, invention of the telephone, meta analysis, meta-analysis, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, statistical model, Thomas Malthus
As an energy source, the main drawback of oil shale is that it is a very low-energy-content fuel. It contains about one-eighth the energy of conventional oil on an energy-per-ton basis (5 million British thermal units (BTU) per ton versus almost 40 million BTU per ton in crude oil). It is not economic to exploit oil shales that would generate less than about 15 gallons of oil per ton. A 2005 study by the Rand Corporation concluded that oil prices would have to remain above $70 to $95 (2005$) per barrel for the firstgeneration mining and surface retorting plants to be profitable using existing technology. Such an oil price was surpassed in 2008, but it remains uncertain that such a price would be sustained in the future to justify commercial investment in large-scale recovery. Earlier Rand studies suggested that after 0.5 billion barrels were produced, the technology would improve, production costs would drop by 50 percent, and the oil shale resource would be profitable at $35 to $48 per barrel (2005$).
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, www.capp.ca/default.asp? V_DOC_ID=603 158. Park, G. (2008). “Alberta oil sands frenzy fizzling,” Petroleum News, 13(51), December 21, 2008: 8; “Study sees pause in oil sands output growth,” Oil and Gas Journal, February 16, 2009: 5. 159. Rand Report (2005). Bartis, J. T., T. LaTourrette, L. Dixon, D. J. Peterson, and G. Cecchine (2005). Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues, Rand Corporation, Monograph series. 160. Ibid. 161. Ibid. 162. Biglarbigi, K., H. Mohan, M. Carolus, and J. Killen (2009). “Analytic approach estimates oil shale development economics,” Oil and Gas Journal, February 2, 2009: 48–53. 163. “Israel presses for oil from shale,” Business Week, July 5, 2006. 164. Dyni, J. R. (2003). “Geology and resources of some world oil-shale deposits,” Oil Shale, 20(3): 193–252. 165.
., 126 237 SEC rules, 69, 125–6 status in 2008, 31–2 oil resource pyramids, 160–5 global, 163–5 US, 161–2 oil sands Canada, 27, 29, 122, 132, 136, 168–70 US, 162, 168 oil shale global, 172–3 US, 162, 170–2 oil shocks, 155–6 oil, unconventional, 27, 165–75 oil-use efficiency see efficiency oil-use intensity, 148–52 oil wells, 96–7 oil window, 170 Oklahoma, 62 OPEC, 21, 23–6 dependence on, 36–7, 208 members, 23 price control, 24–6, 218 price rises in 1970s, 63–4 production, 24–5, 118, 218 quotas, 24, 67 reserves, 23 estimates, 67–8, 124–5 OPEC Basket, 24, 41, 56 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, see OAPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, see OPEC Orimulsion, 167 Orinoco heavy-oil belt, 167 overshoot and collapse, 60 palm oil, 212–13 panic, see oil crises patent activity, 222 PDVSA, 168 peak oil, 3–4 effects, 62 Hubbert predictions, 7–9, 11–12 238 Index peak oil (cont’d ) modern proponents, 124 oil company views, 16 oil discovery volume and, 73–4 oil endowment and, 68–9 US Department of Energy predictions, 81 peanut oil, 212 Pennsylvania, 1, 20, 160, 176 Peru, oil reserves, 144 petroleum composition, 18–19 definition, 17 refinement, 18–19 unconventional, 27 see also gasoline and oil petroleum endowment, 178–9 Petroleum Producers Association, 20 petroleum products, from barrel of oil, 37–8 Petroleum Week, 88 placer deposits, 156 plankton, 17 platinum, 106 political stability, 217, 221 population growth, 5, 58–61, 111 Porter, Edward, 114 predictions, 2, 4–13, 60–3, 87–93, 95–99, 123–4, 128, 130, 134–5, 223 price elasticity of demand, 45, 56 price gouging, 48–9 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 217 primary recovery, 162 private investment, 144 processing gain, 38, 39 producer rebound, 200 production costs, 23, 42–3, 133–4, 142 production decline, scarcity and, 98–103 profitable oil extraction prices, 113–4 Prudhoe Bay oil field, 128 Qatar, 23, 74, 176 Rand Corporation, 172 reasonable certainty, 125–6 rebound, 199–200 recession, 25, 154–5 recovery factor, definition, 18 remaining reserves, 28 renewable energy resources, 216 renewable resources, 98–100, 102 Requa, Mark L., 63 research and development spending, 222 reserve additions, 127, 130, 136–7 reserve base, 184 reserve growth, 28, 127, 134–6 reserves booking, 125–6 definition, 17, 122 private investment and, 144 revisions based on backdating, 136 see also gold reserves; natural gas reserves; oil reserves resource endowment, 6 resource pyramid, 156–73 resource substitution, 107–8, 207 resources definition, 17, 122 non-renewable, 100–3 renewable, 98–100, 102 reserves vs., 126 rock bit, 223 Royal Dutch Shell in-situ recovery method, 170 oil discoveries, 144 oil reserves, 23, 69, 125–6 Russia heavy oil, 166–7 natural gas, 145 oil production, 32, 144–5 oil reserves, 144 Sasol, 176 Saudi Arabia oil consumption, 74 oil production, 32, 71–2 Index incremental cost, 114 spare capacity, 118 oil reserves, 72 OPEC membership, 23 scarcity, 61, 77–9, 98–116, 186, 196, 219, 222 scarcity rent, 116–18 Science, 2, 5, 65, 90 Scientific American, 106 SEC, 69, 125, 126 SEC Rule (4–10), 125 secondary recovery, 162 security, 12–3, 64, 195, 217–9, 221 Shell see Royal Dutch Shell Shell Canada, 169 Shenhua China Coal Liquefaction Corporation, 177 silver, 106, 108 Simmons, Mathew, 104 Simon-Ehrlich bet, 103–5 Simon, Julian, 103–4 Six Day War (1967), 112–13, 115 Smithsonian Institute, 63 social disintegration, 217 solar power generation, 214 “sour” oil, 40 South Africa, transportation fuels from coal, 176 South America, heavy oil, 167 South Korea, vehicle ownership, 205 South Pars field, 138 soybean oil, 212–13 Spindletop, 160 spot price, 48 St.
The Glass Cage: Automation and Us by Nicholas Carr
Airbnb, Airbus A320, Andy Kessler, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, Bernard Ziegler, business process, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, computerized trading, David Brooks, deliberate practice, deskilling, digital map, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, High speed trading, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, natural language processing, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, place-making, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, software is eating the world, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, turn-by-turn navigation, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche
What we’ve learned is that automation has a sometimes-tragic tendency to increase the complexity of a job at the worst possible moment—when workers already have too much to handle. The computer, introduced as an aid to reduce the chances of human error, ends up making it more likely that people, like shocked mice, will make the wrong move. CHAPTER FIVE WHITE-COLLAR COMPUTER LATE IN THE SUMMER OF 2005, researchers at the venerable RAND Corporation in California made a stirring prediction about the future of American medicine. Having completed what they called “the most detailed analysis ever conducted of the potential benefits of electronic medical records,” they declared that the U.S. health-care system “could save more than $81 billion annually and improve the quality of care” if hospitals and physicians automated their record keeping.
Stanton, “Attention and Automation: New Perspectives on Mental Overload and Performance,” Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 3, no. 2 (2002): 178–194. 6.Mark W. Scerbo, “Adaptive Automation,” in Raja Parasuraman and Matthew Rizzo, eds., Neuroergonomics: The Brain at Work (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), 239–252. Chapter Five: WHITE-COLLAR COMPUTER 1.“RAND Study Says Computerizing Medical Records Could Save $81 Billion Annually and Improve the Quality of Medical Care,” RAND Corporation press release, September 14, 2005. 2.Richard Hillestad et al., “Can Electronic Medical Record Systems Transform Health Care? Potential Health Benefits, Savings, and Costs,” Health Affairs 24, no. 5 (2005): 1103–1117. 3.Reed Abelson and Julie Creswell, “In Second Look, Few Savings from Digital Health Records,” New York Times, January 10, 2013. 4.Jeanne Lambrew, “More than Half of Doctors Now Use Electronic Health Records Thanks to Administration Policies,” The White House Blog, May 24, 2013, whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/05/24/more-half-doctors-use-electronic-health-records-thanks-administration-policies. 5.Arthur L.
., 60–61, 154 death of, 53 erosion of expertise of, 54–58, 62–63 human- vs. technology-centered automation and, 168–70, 172–73 income of, 59–60 see also autopilot place, 131–34, 137, 251n place cells, 133–34, 136, 219 Plato, 148 Player Piano (Vonnegut), 39 poetry, 211–16, 218, 221–22 Poirier, Richard, 214, 215 Politics (Aristotle), 224 Popular Science, 48 Post, Wiley, 48, 50, 53, 57, 62, 82, 169 power, 21, 37, 65, 151, 175, 204, 217 practice, 82–83 Predator drone, 188 premature fixation, 145 presence, power of, 200 Priestley, Joseph, 160 Prius, 6, 13, 154–55 privacy, 206 probability, 113–24 procedural (tacit) knowledge, 9–11, 83, 105, 113, 144 productivity, 18, 22, 29, 30, 37, 106, 160, 173, 175, 181, 218 professional work, incursion of computers into, 115 profit motive, 17 profits, 18, 22, 28, 30, 33, 95, 159, 171, 172–73, 175 progress, 21, 26, 29, 37, 40, 65, 196, 214 acceleration of, 26 scientific, 31, 123 social, 159–60, 228 progress (continued) technological, 29, 31, 34, 35, 48–49, 108–9, 159, 160, 161, 173, 174, 222, 223–24, 226, 228, 230 utopian vision of, 25, 26 prosperity, 20, 21, 107 proximal cues, 219–20 psychologists, psychology, 9, 11, 15, 54, 103, 119, 149, 158–59 animal studies, 87–92 cognitive, 72–76, 81, 129–30 psychomotor skills, 56, 57–58, 81, 120 quality of experience, 14–15 Race against the Machine (Brynjolfsson and McAfee), 28–29 RAND Corporation, 93–98 “Rationalism in Politics” (Oakeshott), 124 Rattner, Justin, 203 reading, learning of, 82 Reaper drone, 188 reasoning, reason, 120, 121, 124, 151 recession, 27, 28, 30, 32 Red Dead Redemption, 177–78 “Relation of Strength of Stimulus to Rapidity of Habit-Formation, The” (Yerkes and Dodson), 89 Renslow, Marvin, 43–44 Revit, 146, 147 Rifkin, Jeremy, 28 Robert, David, 45, 169–70 Robert Frost (Poirier), 214 Roberts, J.
Beyond: Our Future in Space by Chris Impey
3D printing, Admiral Zheng, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Berlin Wall, Buckminster Fuller, butterfly effect, California gold rush, carbon-based life, Colonization of Mars, cosmic abundance, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, discovery of DNA, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Eratosthenes, Haight Ashbury, Hyperloop, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, life extension, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mars Rover, mutually assured destruction, Oculus Rift, operation paperclip, out of africa, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, phenotype, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Rubik’s Cube, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Searching for Interstellar Communications, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, Skype, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, supervolcano, technological singularity, telepresence, telerobotics, the medium is the message, the scientific method, theory of mind, There's no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home - Ken Olsen, V2 rocket, wikimedia commons, X Prize, Yogi Berra
An antimatter engine has a performance gain of a factor of a hundred, and the fuel requirement drops to about 100,000 kilograms or ten railway tankers of propellant to get there in less than a millennium. These numbers double because the spacecraft will need fuel to decelerate when it reaches its destination. Gathering this much antimatter will be impossible for the foreseeable future. At the moment, it would cost $100 billon just to create one milligram of antimatter.11 For those wanting to try this at home—the calculation, not actually building an interstellar rocket—the RAND Corporation used to sell the nifty (and very retro) Rocket Performance Calculator, dating from 1958.12 This circular slide rule incorporates the rocket equation and it can still be found occasionally on eBay, making for a great conversation piece. Figure 50. NASA’s version of the Project Orion concept, where pulsed nuclear fusion projects the power. The design combines high thrust and high exhaust velocity.
University of California Los Alamos Lab, unclassified document archived at http://www.webcitation.org/5uzTHJfF7. For more recent technical design work, see “Physics of Rocket Systems with Separated Rockets and Propellant” by A. Zuppero 2010, online at http://neofuel.com/optimum/. 11. “Reaching for the Stars: Scientists Examine Using Antimatter and Fusion to Propel Future Spacecraft,” April 1999, NASA, online at http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/1999/prop12apr99_1/. 12. The Rand Corporation, online at http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM2300.html. 13. “Galactic Matter and Interstellar Flight” by R. W. Bussard 1960. Astronautica Acta, vol. 6, pp. 179–94. 14. “Roundtrip Interstellar Travel Using Laser-Pushed Lightsails” by R. L. Forward 1984. Journal of Spacecraft, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 187–95. 15. “Magnetic Sails and Interstellar Travel” by D. G. Andrews and R. Zubrin 1988.
., 239 Los Angeles Times, 71 Losing My Virginity (Branson), 86, 87 Louis IX, king of France, 23 Louis XVI, king of France, 68 Lovelock, James, 286 Lowell, Percival, 163–64 Lucian of Samosata, 20 Lucretius, 18–19 Luna program, 50–51 Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, 156 Lunokhod rover, 143 Lynx rocket plane, 101 M5 fiber, 161 McAuliffe, Christa, 55, 74 Mack 3 Blackbird, 69 McKay, Chris, 173 McLellan, William, 283 magnetic implants, 207 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), 190 magnetic sails, 186, 223 magnitude of time, 248–50, 249 Manhattan Project, 36, 221 Manifest Destiny, applied to space, 146–47, 199 Manned Habitat Unit, 169 many worlds concept, 17–20, 17, 49, 267 Mao Zedong, 141 Marconi, Guglielmo, 237 Mariner 2, 51 Mariner 4, 164 Marino, Lori, 190 Marriott hotels, 145 Mars, 28, 237, 270 challenges of travel to, 166–70 distance from Earth to, 50, 148, 166 Earth compared to, 171–72, 216 establishing a colony on, 166–71, 169, 192, 195, 200–201, 203, 214, 248 evidence of water on, 124–25, 163–66, 165, 173 fly-bys of, 51, 170 imaginative perceptions of, 163–65 latency on, 178 map of, 163 obstacles to exploration of, 66–67, 148 one-way journey to, 166, 170–71, 200 as potentially habitable, 124–25, 163, 165–66, 171, 172–74, 234, 278 privately funded missions to, 170–71 probes to, 40, 51, 52, 164–65, 176, 246 projected exploration of, 94–98, 101, 104, 115, 119, 157, 161, 163–74, 178, 181, 182 property rights on, 145, 198–99 sex and reproduction on, 200 simulated journey to, 169–70 soil of, 170 staging points for, 161 terraforming of, 172–74, 182, 216, 227 tests for life on, 52 Mars Direct, 169 Mars500 mission, 169 Mars One, 170–71, 198–201 Mars Society, 166 Mars 3 lander, 51 Masai people, 120 Massachusetts General Hospital, 250 Masson-Zwaan, Tanja, 199 mathematics, 19 as universal language, 236–37 Matrix, The, 260 matter, manipulation of, 258 matter-antimatter annihilation, 220, 220, 221–22 Mavroidis, Constantinos, 182 Max-Q (maximum aerodynamic stress), 46 Maxwell, James Clerk, 183 Mayor, Michel, 126–28, 133 medicine: challenges and innovation in, 92–93, 263 cyborgs in, 205 medicine (continued) as lacking in space, 200 in life extension, 259 nanotechnology in, 225, 259 robots in, 180, 181, 182, 205 mediocrity, principle of, 261 Mendez, Abel, 278 mental models, 13–17, 18–19 Mercury: orbit of, 126, 215 property rights on, 145 as uninhabitable, 124 mercury poisoning, 118 Mercury program, 41, 42, 71, 74, 272 meta-intelligence, 94 meteorites, 152, 160, 160, 164, 195 methane, 52–53, 125, 132, 278 as biomarker, 217–18 methanogens, 217 “Method of Reaching Extreme Altitudes, A” (Goddard), 30, 31 Methuselah, 131 mice, in scientific research, 48–49, 250–51 microbes, microbial life, 97–98, 173, 174, 217, 241, 246, 286 habitable environments for, 122–25, 165–66, 186 microcephaly, 203 microgravity, 115 microsatellites, 90 Microsoft, 84, 188 microwaves: beaming of, 223–24 signals, 187 Microwave Sciences, 223 Middle East, population dispersion into, 8, 118 migration: early human population dispersion through, 5–9, 9, 15, 19 motivation for, 9–12, 11 military: covert projects of, 69–72 Eisenhower’s caveat about, 79 in Internet development, 77, 78–79 nanotechnology in, 180–81, 225 in rocket development, 30, 32–39, 55–56, 71 in space programs, 73, 76, 79, 144, 153 Milky Way galaxy, 227, 240, 253, 263, 270 ancient Greek concept of, 18 Drake equation for detectable life in, 188, 233–35 Earth-like exoplanets in, 129–33, 233, 291 formation and age of, 235 size of, 242 Millis, Marc, 290 mind control, 245 mind uploading, 259 miniaturization, see nanotechnology minimum viable population, 201, 251 mining: of asteroids, 155–56, 182, 214 of Enceladus, 227 on Moon, 214 by robots, 178, 182 Minsky, Marvin, 177, 179 MirCorp, 75 mirrors, 173 Mir Space Station, 75, 115, 167–68 Miss Baker (monkey), 47–48, 48 Mission Control, 43, 100, 158, 269 MIT, 38, 77, 90, 141, 226, 257 mitochondrial DNA, 6, 9 Mittelwerk factory, 33, 35 Mojave Desert, 71, 82, 83 population adaptation to heat in, 118–19 molecules, in nanotechnology, 151 Mongols, 23, 24 monkeys, in space research, 47–48, 48 Montgolfier brothers, 68 Moon: age of, 50 ancient Greek concept of, 18 in asteroid capture, 156 distance from Earth to, 49–50, 150, 166, 267 first animals on, 49 first man on, 71, 158 latency on, 178 lunar base proposed for, 157–63, 158, 160, 195, 214, 248 manned landings on, 44–45, 49–50, 54, 56, 63, 71, 84, 99, 104, 108, 143, 157, 158, 176, 219, 270, 272 obstacles to exploration of, 66 orbit of, 25 probes to, 40, 51, 129, 140, 143 projected missions to, 92, 143, 157–63, 166, 214, 275 property rights on, 145–47, 198–99 proposed commercial flights to, 102 in science fiction, 20, 26 soil of, 159, 160, 162 as staging point for Mars, 161 staging points for, 148 telescopic views of, 31, 49–50 as uninhabitable, 124, 166 US commitment to reach, 41–45 Moon Treaty (1979), 146 Moon Treaty, UN (1984), 279 Moore, John, 203 Moravec, 259–60 Morgan, Barbara, 74 Morrison, Philip, 187, 239 Mosaic web browser, 79 Moses, 148 motion, Newton’s laws of, 25, 67–68 multistage rockets, 29 multiverse, 252–57, 255 Musk, Elon, 94–98, 97, 100–101, 112–13, 148, 205 mutation, 6–7 cosmic rays and, 204 7R, 10–12, 11, 15 mutually assured destruction, 42 Mylar, 184, 225 N1/L3 rocket, 44, 54 nanobots, 179–82, 181, 224–28 NanoSail-D, 184, 185 nanosponges, 180 nanotechnology, 151–52, 179–82, 208, 214, 245, 280, 283 projected future of, 257–59 see also nanobots National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 83, 90, 96, 97–98, 114, 116–17, 128, 144, 153, 156, 176, 178, 182, 184–85, 185, 195, 200, 205, 206, 216, 224, 226, 271, 275, 280, 290 and Air Force, 71 artistic depiction of space colonies by, 196, 196 budget of, 39, 42, 43, 49, 54, 64, 75, 99, 104, 140, 144, 158, 166, 188, 238, 270, 272, 284 cut back of, 45, 49, 54, 188 formation of, 38–39, 145, 269 private and commercial collaboration with, 99–102, 104 revival of, 103–5 space program of, 51, 55–56, 71–76, 92, 157–58, 285–86 stagnation of, 63–67, 141, 147, 166 National Geographic Society, 7, 265 National Radio Astronomy Observatory, 187–88 National Science Foundation (NSF), 78–79 Native Americans, 118 naturalness, 256 natural selection, 6, 16, 123, 164, 251, 291 Nature, 187 Naval Research lab, 37 Navy, US: Bureau of Aeronautics, 30 in rocket development, 36–37 Nayr, Ernst, 238 Nazis, 48 Propaganda Ministry of, 32 von Braun and, 32–34, 141, 269 NBC, 75 Nedelin, Mitrofan, 43 “needle in a haystack” problem, 188–89, 242–43 “Nell” (rocket), 29 Neptune, 127, 131, 225 as uninhabitable, 125 Nergal, 163 Netscape, 80 New Mexico, 88, 88, 105 Newton, Isaac, 24–25, 25, 30, 67–68, 110, 262, 267 New York Times, 30, 94 Nicholas, Henry, 214 Niven, Larry, 198, 253 Nixon, Richard, 108, 167 Nobel Prize, 126, 180, 214 nomad planets, 128 Noonan, James, 266 nuclear fission, 220, 220, 221 nuclear fusion, 110, 161–62, 220, 221, 221, 222 nuclear reactors, 224 nuclear weapons, 36, 42, 78, 129, 146, 197–98, 222, 234–35, 244, 245, 246, 286 Nuremberg Chronicles, 17 Nyberg, Karen, 200 Obama, Barack, 104 Oberth, Hermann, 28, 31–32, 36, 268 oceans: acidification of, 195 sealed ecosystem proposed for, 197 Oculus Rift, 176 Ohio, astronauts from, 74 Okuda, Michael, 228 Olsen, Ken, 213 100 Year Starship project, 224 100 Year Starship Symposium, 229 101955 Bennu (asteroid), 156 O’Neill, Gerard, 196, 251–52 Opportunity rover, 165 optical SETI, 190, 243 Orbital Sciences Corporation, 100–101, 275 orbits: concept of, 25 geostationary, 149–50, 150 legislation on, 146 low Earth, 49, 54, 63, 70–71, 70, 74–75, 97, 100, 110, 113–14, 151, 155, 184 manned, 40–41, 141–42 staging points from, 148 orcas, 190 Orion spacecraft, 104 Orteig, Raymond, 90 Orteig Prize, 90–91 Orwell, George, 35 OSIRIS-REx, 156 Outer Space Treaty (1967), 145–47, 198–99 “Out of the Cradle, Endlessly Rocking” (Clarke), 201 oxygen, 156, 159, 161, 170, 172, 173–74, 182, 193–95, 214 Oymyakon, Siberia, population adaptation to cold in, 119–20 ozone, as biomarker, 217 Pacific Ocean, 9, 224 Pac-Man, 175 Page, Larry, 92 Paine, Thomas, 167 Pale Blue Dot (Sagan), 121 “Pale Blue Dot,” Earth as, 53, 118–22, 121, 130 Paperclip, Operation, 141 parabolic flight, 93 paradox, as term, 241 Paratrechina longicornis (crazy ant), 193 Parkinson’s disease, 202–3 particle physics, standard model of, 256 Pascal, Blaise, 120 Pauley, Phil, 196–97 PayPal, 95, 97 Pensées (Pascal), 120 People’s Daily, 162 People’s Liberation Army, 144 Pericles, 18 Pettit, Don, 100, 273 phenotype, 6 philanthropy, 95 PhoneSat, 185 photons, 183, 186 in teleportation, 229, 230, 231 photosynthesis, as biomarker, 217 pigs, 250 Pinker, Steven, 16 Pioneer probes, 50, 51–52 piracy, 24 Pitcairn Island, 202 planetary engineering, 172 Planetary Resources, 156 planetary science, 51–52, 176 Planetary Society, 184 planets: exploration of, 49–53 formation of, 156 plate techtonics, 132, 241 play, imagination in, 10, 14 pluralism, 17–20, 17, 49 plutonium, 66 poetry, space, 272–73 politics, space exploration and, 63–64, 104, 141, 214, 238 Polyakov, Valeri, 115, 167–68 population bottleneck, 201–2, 287 Poynter, Jane, 193 Princess of Mars, A (Burroughs), 164 Principia (Newton), 25 Project Orion, 221, 221 Project Ozma, 187–88, 237, 253 prokaryotes, 172 property rights, in space, 145–47, 198 Proton rockets, 65, 113 proton scoop, 222–23 Proxmire, William, 238 Puerto Rico, 239, 243 pulsar, 131 Pythagorean Theorem, 238 Qian Xuesen, 141 Qi Jiguang, 24 Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize, 92 quantum entanglement, 230–32, 230 quantum genesis, 255 quantum mechanics, 258 quantum teleportation, 230–32, 230 quantum theory, 189 qubits, 230 Queloz, Didier, 126–28, 133 R-7 rocket, 37 R-16 rocket, 43 radiation, infrared, 109, 253–54, 254 radioactivity, as energy source, 124, 181 radio waves, 66, 187, 189, 242 ramjets, 222–23 RAND Corporation, 222 Rare Earth hypothesis, 241 RCS Energia, 106 RD-180 engine, 72 Reagan, Ronald, administration of, 167, 271 reality TV, 75, 171, 214, 282 “Realm of Fear,” 229 reasoning, human capacity for, 13–17, 18–19 red dwarfs, 131 Red Mars (Stanley), 174 Red Scare, 141 Redstone rocket, 36–37, 71 reindeer, 119–20 remote sensing, 175–91, 224 RepRap Project, 227 reproduction, sexual, 6, 172 Ride, Sally, 74 “Right Stuff,” as term, 71, 114 Right Stuff, The (Wolfe), 272 Ringworld series (Niven), 253 risk: as basic to human nature, 9, 262 genetic factor in, 10–12 of living on Mars, 167–70 in pushing human limits, 120 of space tourism, 102, 105–9, 155 of space travel, 42–43, 55–56, 56, 106–9, 152–53 Robinson, Kim Stanley, 174 robonaut project, 179 robots, robotics: as aids to humans, 249, 250 in asteroid redirection, 104 commercial, 178 ethical issues of, 179 nanotechnology in, 179–82, 181 remote control of, 177–78 remote sensing through, 176 self-assembly and self-replication by, 226–28, 258, 259 in spacecraft, 50, 100, 100 space exploration by, 53–57, 66, 98, 133, 161, 177–79, 179, 208, 224–28 see also cyborgs; nanobots Rocketdyne, 112 rocket equation, 27, 53, 72–73, 110–11, 111, 148, 220, 268 rocket fuel, 110–13, 148, 156, 159, 161 comparison of efficiency of, 219–24 Rocket Performance Calculator, 222 rockets: alternatives to, 148–53 “bible” of, 267 challenges in launching of, 43–44, 46–49, 106, 107, 111–12, 148 comparison of US and Soviet, 44 cost of, 112–13, 113 developing technology of, 21–39, 43, 101, 103, 112–13, 183, 262 fuel for, 110–13, 148, 156, 159, 161, 220–21 launched from planes, 84 liquid-fueled, 28–29, 29 physics and function of, 110–14 proposed energy technologies for, 220–24 reusable, 101, 103, 111, 112, 113 solar sails compared to, 183 as term, 23 visionaries in development of, 26–30, 94 in warfare, 22–24, 30, 32–34 see also specific rockets “Rockets to the Planets in Space, The” (Oberth), 28 Rogers Commission, 271 Rohrabacher, Dana, 284 Rome, ancient, 18, 67, 163 Rovekamp, Roger, 207 rovers, 66–67, 92, 125, 140, 143, 158, 165, 167 nanotechnology in, 181–82 remote sensing through, 176 Rozier, Jean-François de, 68 RP-1 kerosine, 110 RS-25 rocket, 112 Russia, 23, 26–27, 149, 178 space program of, 37, 65–66, 72, 75, 84, 91, 104, 106, 107–8, 113, 114, 140, 143, 168, 184, 195, 200, 271 space tourism by, 75, 102 tensions between US and, 72 see also Soviet Union Russian Revolution, 27, 47 Russian Space Agency, 102 Rutan, Burt, 72, 82–86, 85, 88, 88, 89, 91, 97–98, 105–6, 214 Rutan, Dick, 83–84 Rutan Aircraft Factory, 83 Saberhagen, Fred, 177, 259 Sagan, Carl, 53, 121–22, 121, 176–77, 184, 198, 234–35, 238, 240 Sahakian, Barbara, 98 Sahara Desert, 238 sails: solar, 183–86, 185 wind-driven, 67–68, 183, 262 Salyut space station, 54, 108 satellites: artificial Earth, 36–39, 37, 40, 65, 71, 106 commercial, 96, 105 communications, 101, 142, 153 in energy capture, 253 geostationary, 149 GPS, 144 launching of, 154, 154 miniature, 90, 184–85 Saturn: moon of, 125, 227 probes to, 52–53 as uninhabitable, 125 Saturn V rocket, 43, 44, 46, 54, 83, 104, 111, 113, 113, 166 Scaled Composites, 83, 89 science fiction, 192, 196, 222, 223, 239, 250, 253 aliens in, 186–87 in film, 28, 204 Mars in, 164, 174 roots of, 20 technologies of, 228–32, 259 see also specific authors and works scientific method, 213 Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), 187–90, 234, 239, 254 evolution and technology of, 237–39, 242–43, 242 lack of signals detected by, 236–37, 240–44 new paradigms for, 258 “Searching for Interstellar Communications” (Cocconi and Morrison), 187 sea travel: early human migration through, 8, 9 exploration by, 109, 262 propulsion in, 67–68 self-replication, 226–28, 258, 259 Senate, US, Armed Services Preparedness Committee of, 39 SETI Institute, 188 78–6 (pig), 250 sex: promiscuous, 12 in reproduction, 6, 172 in space, 200, 214 Shackleton Energy Company, 161 Shane, Scott, 98 Shatner, William, 88–89 Shelley, Mary, 206 Shenlong (“Divine Dragon”), 145 Shenzhou 10, 142–43 Shepard, Alan, 41, 84 Shostak, Seth, 243 Siberia, 65, 119–20, 238 population dispersion into, 8, 118, 218 Sidereal Messenger, The (Galileo), 270 Siemienowicz, Kazimierz, 267 Simonyi, Charles, 75 Sims, 175 simulation: infinite regression in, 261 living in, 257–62 simulation hypothesis, 261 Sinatra, Frank, 45 singularity, 207 in origin of cosmos, 255 and simulation, 257–62 technological, 258–59 Singularity University, 94, 259 Skylab space station, 54, 116 Skype video, 176 smart motes, 181, 225 smartphones, 92, 185 Smithsonian Institution, 30, 81 Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum, 85, 91, 271 Snow Crash (Stephenson), 103 Snowden, Edward, 178 social media, 195 Sojourner rover, 165 SolarCity, 96–97 solar flares, 167 solar power, 96, 181, 183–86 solar sails, solar sailing, 183–86, 185, 223, 225, 227 Solar System: discovery of first planet beyond, 126–27 edge of, 50, 53, 121 formation of, 156 habitability potential in, 122, 124–26 latency variations in, 178 probes into, 51–52, 66, 177, 185–86, 208, 270 projected travel within, 248–49, 263 property rights in, 145–47, 198 worlds beyond, 126–29, 156, 208, 215, 250, 263 solar wind, 162, 223 sound barrier, breaking of, 69, 71 South America, 11, 202, 218 Soviet Union, 30, 34, 37, 141 fall of, 47, 65, 75, 197, 271–72 rocket development in, 35–39 space program failures and losses of, 43, 47, 50–51, 54, 269 space program of, 37–39, 40–43, 141, 149, 237, 271 Soyuz spacecraft, 43, 55, 75, 84, 91, 102, 106, 113, 143 crash of, 107–8 space: civilians in, 55, 74 civilian vs. military control of, 37–39, 69–71, 79, 153 commercialization of, 55, 63, 73–76, 79–80, 88–89, 92, 97, 99–109, 100, 110, 147, 153–56, 154, 199, 214, 249, 275 debris in, 144, 152 first American in, 41 first man in, 40–41, 41 first women in, 40, 74 as infinite, 18, 19, 22 as inhospitable to human beings, 53–54, 114–17, 121 legislation on, 39, 78, 90, 144, 145–47, 198–200 living in, 192–208 “living off the land” in, 166, 200 peaceful exploration of, 39 potential for human habitabilty in, 123 prototype for sealed ecosystem in, 192–97 Space Act (1958), 39, 90 Space Adventures, 102, 275 space colonization: challenges of, 197–201 cyborgs in, 204–8 evolutionary diversion in, 201–4 legal issues in, 198–200 of Mars, 166–71, 169, 192, 195, 203 off-Earth human beings in, 215, 250–51 prototype experiments for, 192–97 space elevators, 27, 148–53, 150, 160–61, 185, 280 “Space Exploration via Telepresence,” 178 Spaceflight Society, 28 space hotels, 102–3 Space Launch System (SLS), 104 space mining, 155–56, 161–62 “Space Oddity,” 142 spaceplanes, 71–72, 85, 144 Spaceport America, 1–6, 105 Space Race, 35–39, 37, 40–43, 50, 55, 139 SpaceShipOne, 72, 85, 85, 88–89, 88, 91 SpaceShipTwo, 88, 101, 105 Space Shuttle, 45, 46, 49, 64, 72, 84, 85, 111–13, 112, 159, 167, 194, 219–20, 222, 275 disasters of, 55–56, 56, 74–75, 107, 111–13 final flight of, 271 limitations of, 55–56, 64–65 as reusable vehicle, 54–55 space sickness, 114 spacesuits, 89, 182, 195–96 space-time, 255, 255 manipulation of, 258 space tourism, 63, 73, 75–76, 79–80, 88–89, 91, 101–3, 154, 170, 214 celebrities in, 88, 101–2 revenue from, 154–55, 155 risks of, 102, 105–9, 155 rules for, 105 space travel: beyond Solar System, see interstellar travel bureaucracy of, 105–10, 271 cost of, 39, 42, 45, 49, 54, 55, 66, 75, 81–82, 91, 112–14, 113, 139–49, 153, 155–56, 158–59, 161, 166, 179, 183, 198, 214, 217, 222, 224–26, 252, 270, 275, 284 early attempts at, 21–22, 22 effect of rocket equation in, see rocket equation entrepreneurs of, 81–98 erroneous predictions about, 214 failures and disasters in, 21–22, 22, 38, 43, 47, 50–51, 54–56, 56, 63–64, 68, 72, 74–75, 101, 102, 107, 142, 184, 269, 271, 275 fatality rate of, 107–9 fictional vignettes of, 1–4, 59–62, 135–38, 209–12 Internet compared to, 76–80, 77, 80 life extension for, 250–51 lifetimes lived in, 251 living conditions in, 114–17 new business model for, 99–105 Newton’s theories as basis of, 25 obstacles to, 21, 63, 66–67, 105–109 space travel (continued) as part of simulation, 261–62 public engagement in, 45, 73, 85, 93, 162, 177, 217 remote sensing vs., 175–91 risks of, 43–44, 83, 89, 93, 105–9 speculation on future of, 76–80, 133, 213–32, 248–52 suborbital, 84 telescopic observation vs., 49–50 visionaries of, 26–39, 80, 94, 109 SpaceX, 96, 97, 100–103, 113–14, 275 SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, 96, 100, 100, 102, 170 special theory of relativity, 228, 231 specific impulse, 220 spectroscopy, 127, 165, 176 spectrum analyzer, 237 Speer, Albert, 34 Spielberg, Steven, 238 Spirit of St.
American energy revolution, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Carmen Reinhart, crony capitalism, deglobalization, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fixed income, full employment, global supply chain, hiring and firing, hydraulic fracturing, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kenneth Rogoff, manufacturing employment, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea
Natural Resources Defense Council, “Reducing Imported Oil.” 30. Kuuskraa et al., “Improving Domestic Energy Security.” 31. James T. Bartis, Tom LaTourrette, Lloyd Dixon, D. J. Peterson, and Gary Cecchine, Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2005). Figures were converted from 2005 dollars to 2012 dollars by using CPI. 32. James T. Bartis, Frank Camm, and David S. Ortiz, Producing Liquid Fuels from Coal: Prospects and Policy Issues (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2008). Figures were converted from 2007 dollars to 2012 dollars by using CPI. 33. Bartis et al., Oil Shale Development in the United States. 34. Ibid. 35. Quoted in David Ignatius, “An Economic Boom Ahead?” Washington Post, May 4, 2012. NOTES FOR PAGES 65–78 • 227 36. Jocelyn Fong, “20 Experts Who Say Drilling Won’t Lower Gas Prices,” Media Matters for America, March 22, 2012, http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/ 03/22/20-experts-who-say-drilling-wont-lower-gas-pric/184040. 37.
Oil shale is forebidding. Having broken so many hearts so many times over, it still scares most suitors away. “I know that when something has a bad name,” Jonas says, “people are very hesitant to go back there, even if things have totally changed.” That change is what a few investors are betting on. Modern oil prices and new technology could eventually make oil shale economically viable. In 2005, Jim Bartis at the RAND Corporation led a team to study the ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ON THE HORIZON • 63 issue. They estimated oil shale could become profitable at an oil price between $80 and $110 a barrel, with costs eventually falling over time as the industry gained experience.31 (Three years later, Bartis brought together another group of researchers to look at the prospect of turning coal into liquid fuel; they concluded it could work with prices around sixty to seventy dollars per barrel.)32 But oil shale would take a lot of time to develop at a commercial scale; the RAND teams estimated it would be at least twenty years before production might be brought up to a million barrels a day.
Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, Benoit Mandelbrot, bitcoin, Brownian motion, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer age, conceptual framework, continuation of politics by other means, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Davies, double helix, Drosophila, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, hive mind, index card, informal economy, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, linear programming, mandelbrot fractal, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, Paul Erdős, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, scientific mainstream, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, stochastic process, technoutopianism, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, transaction costs, Turing machine
At important times, the complex in cold war American science proved vexatious, if not impossible, to navigate. Take, for example, Paul Baran (1926–2011), a Polish-born engineer who was raised in Philadelphia and Boston. Baran is widely remembered today for innovating packet-switching and distributed-network designs, which now are central to modern-day networking, but his struggles are less well remembered. In 1960 at the RAND Corporation, a research think tank under contract with the U.S. Air Force, Baran articulated the “hot-potato heuristic” behind modern-day data traffic on the Internet: break down a message into packets (or envelopes) of information, release each packet to travel on its own traffic-reducing pathway to its final destination, and resequence and receive all packets in their original order. In the early 1960s, Baran also designed the celebrated idea of a distributed network in which every node in a network connects to its neighboring nodes and not to any decentralized or centralized node arrangement (figure 3.2).
In the early 1960s, Baran also designed the celebrated idea of a distributed network in which every node in a network connects to its neighboring nodes and not to any decentralized or centralized node arrangement (figure 3.2). Figure 3.2 Three network types: (a) Centralized, (b) decentralized, and (c) distributed. Source: From Paul Baran, “Introduction to Distributed Communication Networks.” On Distributed Communications, RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-3420-PR, August 1964, 2. Reproduced with permission of The Rand Corp. Widely celebrated as a prototype to “end-to-end” intelligence and a liberal democratic mode of communication, Baran’s network innovations were colored and shaped by the cold war military complex as well as cybernetic sources. In the embarrassing aftermath of Sputnik, the U.S. Defense Department ordered ARPA to design a “survivable” network that would last long enough in a nuclear strike to send a “go-code” to guarantee “second-strike capability.”
John von Neumann and the Origins of Modern Computing. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1990. Aspray, William. “The Scientific Conceptualization of Information.” Annals of the History of Computing 7 (2) (1985): 117–140. Aspray, William, and Paul E. Ceruzzi. The Internet and American Business. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008. Baran, Paul. “Introduction to Distributed Communication Networks.” On Distributed Communications. RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-3420-PR, August 1964. Bartol, Kathryn M. “Soviet Computer Centres: Network or Tangle?” Soviet Studies 23 (4) (1972): 608–618. Becker, Abraham S. “Input-Output and Soviet Planning: A Survey of Recent Developments.” Memorandum prepared for the United States Air Force, RAND Memorandum RM 3523-PR, March 1963. Accessed July 18, 2013, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=AD0401490.
Paper Knowledge: Toward a Media History of Documents by Lisa Gitelman
Andrew Keen, computer age, corporate governance, deskilling, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, East Village, en.wikipedia.org, information retrieval, Internet Archive, invention of movable type, Jaron Lanier, knowledge economy, Marshall McLuhan, Mikhail Gorbachev, national security letter, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, optical character recognition, profit motive, QR code, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, Turing test, Works Progress Administration
Not only was the government’s case against Ellsberg eventually dismissed on the grounds of prosecutorial misconduct, but further covert operations by the Plumbers would include the infamous Watergate break- in, a key link in the twisted chain of events that led to Nixon’s resignation in 1974. The whole affair started in October 1969, when Ellsberg began to copy in installments a multivolume work with the ungainly title “History of U.S. Decision-Making Process on Vietnam Policy,” also known as the “Report of the Office of the Secretary of Defense Vietnam Task Force.” He took sections of the history home from his office at the rand Corporation, returning each section after secretly photocopying it at night on a machine in the office of a sympathetic friend. The history was bound in cardboard covers with metal tapes, which could be removed for copying. There were forty-seven volumes in all, and Ellsberg started in the middle. He was Xeroxing one of fifteen extant duplicates, produced in house at the Pentagon at the behest of Robert McNamara.
The history was made with and out of photocopies, it seems—and photocopies of photocopies, photocopies of transcripts of cables, photocopies of mimeograph copies, and so on— while the heterogeneity of the final version reflected that process when it was typed and reproduced in house.19 Ellsberg himself had been recruited XEROGRAPHERS OF THE MIND 89 F I G U R E 3 .1. Map 2, a photocopy of a photocopy (notice the multiply reproduced loose-leaf holes), reproduced as part of the Pentagon Papers Part IV-B-2 (1969) to document the beginning of the U.S.-backed “Strategic Hamlet Program” in South Vietnam (1962), digitized by the National Archives and Records Administration in 2011. as an author for the history while he was an employee of the rand Corporation. He worked for several months during 1967 compiling material and drafting a section on the policy of President John F. Kennedy’s administration—although, according to Gelb, little of Ellsberg’s draft survived in the final version.20 Ellsberg was now effectively reediting the edit to which he and his subject had been subject. While part of Ellsberg’s investment in the photocopies as photocopies was editorial, another part of it was mimetic, concerning reproduction itself.
See xerographics photography, 112–13, 149 Piper, Andrew, 19, 153n21 Planet pdf, 123 Poe, Edgar Alan, 28, 29, 50, 51; “The Purloined Letter,” 28–29 portable document format (pdf), 7, 18, 100, 114–19, 121–34 PostScript, 121, 123, 125, 132 Power, Eugene, 73–74, 79–80, 119, 130, 132 Preston, Cathy Lynn, 105 Price, Leah, 252n8 “print culture,” 7–9, 11, 20, 25 Printers’ Circular, 37, 42, 45 printers’ monopoly, 51–52, 82, 137, 146 Privacy Act of 1974, 97 ProQuest, 54, 79–80 Public Company Accountability Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, 97 Putnam, Herbert, 107 rand Corporation, 86, 91 Raney, M. Llewellyn, 73 receipts, 3, 21–22, 24, 30, 34, 36, 46 Reign of Terror, 16 Ritchie, Dennis, 97–100 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 59 Rostow, Walter, 94 Rotsler, Bill, 147 R. R. Donnelley & Sons, 66 Rumble, Walker, 162n60 Rumsfeld, Donald, 97 Russo, Anthony, 88–89, 91 samizdat, 95, 100, 174n41 Sánchez-Eppler, Karen, 140, 141 Scalia, Antonin, 97 scholarly communication, 13–15, 52, 56, 60, 70–72, 133 Schwartz, Hillel, 172n3, 173n17 scientific management, 37, 56 Selden, Charles, 33–35; Selden’s Condensed Ledger, 33–34 Selden, Elizabeth, 34 Sellen, Abigail, 4, 111, 128, 130, 152n9 Sheehan, Neil, 92, 94–95 Shirky, Clay, 20, 136 Short Title Catalogue (Pollard and Redgrave), 73, 119 Sieyès, Emmanuel Joseph, 158n4 Sketchpad, 120–21 Smithsonian Institution, 52 Social Science Research Council, 14, 54, 57, 60, 63.
Pirates and Emperors, Old and New by Chomsky, Noam
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, Fall of the Berlin Wall, land reform, liberation theology, Mikhail Gorbachev, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, union organizing, urban planning
Considerably more significant for U.S. policy is Colombia, where the terrible crimes of earlier years mounted sharply in the 1990s, and Colombia became the leading recipient of U.S. arms and training in the hemisphere, in conformity to a consistent pattern. By the decade’s end political murders were running at about ten a day (since perhaps doubled according to Colombian human rights organizations), and the number of displaced people had risen to two million, with some 300,000 more each year, regularly increasing. The State Department and Rand Corporation concur with human rights organizations that some 75–80 percent of the atrocities are attributable to the military and paramilitaries. The latter are so closely linked to the military that Human Rights Watch refers to them as the army’s “sixth division,” alongside the five official divisions. The proportion of atrocities attributed to the six divisions has remained fairly constant through the decade, but with a shift from the military to the paramilitaries as terror has been privatized, a familiar device, employed in recent years by Serbia, Indonesia, and other terror states that seek “plausible deniability” for their crimes.
For the record, “there have been some 18 anti-American terrorist incidents in Western Europe and the Middle East in the three months since the Libyan raid, compared with about 15 during the 31/2 months before it” while “In the world as a whole, the rate of anti-American terrorism looks like being little different from last year,” the Economist observed (while lauding Reagan’s act of courage); and the Rand Corporation’s leading specialist on terrorism noted that terrorist attacks after the raid persisted at about the same level as before.55 Completing the record, on July 3 the FBI released a 41-page report reviewing terrorist incidents within the United States in 1985. Seven were listed, with two people killed. In 1984, there had been 13 terrorist acts. The number has dropped each year since 1982, when 51 terrorist incidents were recorded.56 The FBI report received some coverage.
These included a variety of means to strengthen the authority of the very powerful state to which “conservatives” are deeply committed, among them, sharp increases in military spending designed to enhance the enormous disparity between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Included are the plans to extend the “arms race” into space—a “race” with one competitor only—undermining the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and other international obligations. Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) is only a small component, and even that is understood to be an offensive weapon: “not simply a shield but an enabler of action,” the RAND corporation explained, echoing not only the thoughts but even the words of Chinese authorities, who, realistically, regard it as a weapon directed against them. Strategic analysts realistically describe the program as a means to establish U.S. global “hegemony,” which is what the world needs, they explain, echoing many distinguished predecessors. The far broader programs of militarization of space are explained in high level public documents as the natural next step in expanding state power.
WikiLeaks and the Age of Transparency by Micah L. Sifry
1960s counterculture, Amazon Web Services, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, Buckminster Fuller, Chelsea Manning, citizen journalism, Climategate, crowdsourcing, Google Earth, Howard Rheingold, Internet Archive, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Network effects, RAND corporation, school vouchers, Skype, social web, source of truth, Stewart Brand, web application, WikiLeaks
New funding model for journalism: try doing it for a change.”10 WikiLeaks new level of visibility prompted New York Times reporter Noam Cohen to pose a fascinating question: “What Would Daniel Ellsberg do with the Pentagon Papers today?” Would he have given them to The New York Times and waited for them to be analyzed and published? Or would he just post them online? Back in 1970–71, it had taken Ellsberg, then a high-level analyst with the Rand Corporation, several months to photocopy the ten-thousand-page secret history of America’s war, and months more of eﬀorts to get them published. Ellsberg told Cohen, “As of today, I wouldn’t have waited that long. I would have gotten a scanner and put them on the Internet.” Ellsberg admitted that the government’s eﬀort to stop their publication was useful in garnering public attention; when Nixon’s Justice Department got a court injunction stopping the Times from continuing to publish the papers, Ellsberg passed copies to The Washington Post.
Daniel Ellsberg makes a very similar point in his autobiography Secrets: A Memoir of Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers. Ellsberg was a defense analyst with top security clearances for many years before he decided to leak the Pentagon Papers. He had worked on nuclear war planning policy for the National Security Council before studying Vietnam policy for the Pentagon and State Department. In the fall of 1968, he was working for the Rand Corporation, still with his clearances, and was part of a group tasked by Henry Kissinger—the incoming national security adviser to Presidentelect Richard Nixon—to prepare a study of options for the new president on Vietnam. While presenting that report to Kissinger, he tried to warn of the dangers of relying too much on top secret information. Here’s how he recounts that moment in his book: Kissinger was not rushing to end our conversation that morning, and I had one more message to give him.
citizen journalism, crowdsourcing, Google Earth, informal economy, Julian Assange, knowledge economy, minimum wage unemployment, Mohammed Bouazizi, moral panic, Occupy movement, RAND corporation, Rosa Parks, Silicon Valley, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, WikiLeaks
Consecrate them with a lofty mission; inflame them with emulation and praise; spread through their ranks the word of fire, the word of inspiration; speak to them of country, of glory, of power, of great memories. The above quote from Italian nationalist Guiseppe Mazzini opens the 2003 report “The Youth Factor: The New Demographics of the Middle East and the Implications for U.S. Policy.” The report, authored by Graham Fuller, formerly of the CIA, US Foreign Service, and RAND Corporation, joined a chorus of voices from the Washington, DC establishment in the post-9/11 and post-Cold War era trumpeting the need to contain and capture the hearts and minds of Arab and Muslim youth through “soft power.” With up to 75 percent of the population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under thirty-five years old, the young were well placed to act as what Mazzini calls the “apostles for a new religion.”
., 26 Obama, Barack, 2, 42, 83, 106, 148 2008 Presidential Campaign, 36, 40, 119 One Million Voices Against FARC, 35 See also FARC Open Door, 14 Open Source Center, 40 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 7 Othman, Ahmed, 47, 59 Otpor, 33–5 Pedagogy of the Oppressed (Freire), 154 PlayStation, 8, 74 Police Day, 89–90, 96 Policy Planning, 2, 23, 29, 33, 41–2 See also State Department pornography, 4, 9 Port Said, 75 Powell, Colin, 26 al-Qadaseen. See Church of the Two Saints Rabaa al-Adawaya, 137, 140 Radio Sawa, 32 Ramadan, Tariq, 146–7 RAND Corporation, 25 Rebel. See Tamarud Reporters Without Borders, 103–4 Revolution 2.0, 1, 42, 64, 79, 121, 149 See also Ghonim, Wael Ross, Alec, 42–3 Sabahi, Hamdeen, 124 Said, Khaled, 46, 47–101, 107, 108, 110–11, 150–5 January 25th event and, 5, 19 See also “We Are All Khaled Said” saint, 151–5 Saint Avatatas, 11 Sakhr, 7 Sakr, Rehab, 121 Salafi Front, 91–2 satellite dishes, 7, 8–10, 12 Satellite Thief (Harami al-Dish), 9 Saweris, Nagib, 10 Schmidt, Eric, 44 See also Google Serbia, 18, 33–4 Shafik, Ahmed, 120, 122 Sharp, Gene, 35, 88 Sidi Bouzid, 99, 101 silent stand, 65–68, 87–89, 97 el-Sisi, Abdel Fattah, 136–41, 155–6 6th of April Youth Movement, 22–3, 34, 59, 86–7, 107 AYM and, 35, 38, 46 members of, 37, 75, 107, 110, 119 Skype, 35 soft power, 25–7, 156 Spacenet Internet cafe, 47, 49 State Department, 2, 23–4, 28–44, 106, 146–8 Stepka, Matthew, 1 Stone, Biz, 22 See also Twitter Suez, 114 canal, 14 Supreme Constitutional Court, 136 Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), 3, 74, 120 taboos, 12–14, 158 Al Taghrir.
On Power and Ideology by Chomsky, Noam
anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, feminist movement, imperial preference, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stanislav Petrov, union organizing
Newspeak be instituted. In pursuance of these aims, the U.S. followed a dual-track policy. One was the reconstitution of the National Guard, from 1979 according to Nicaraguan exiles and Salvadoran officers who participated, with aid and training from agents of the neo-Nazi Argentine generals acting “as a proxy for the United States in Central America” (terrorism specialist Brian Jenkins of the Rand Corporation) from 1980, and direct U.S. control from 1981. The second track was an early offer of aid to the new government, but designed so as to strengthen the private business sector. U.S. aid was also supported by international banks, which feared that Nicaragua would not be able to service the vast debt resulting from their collaboration with Somoza, particularly now that he had fled with a large part of the country’s remaining assets.
Shane, Hoofprints on the Forest: Cattle Ranching and the Destruction of Latin America’s Tropical Forests (ISHI, 1986); William H. Durham, Scarcity and Survival in Central America (Stanford U., 1979); Dr. Thorn Kerstiens and Drs Piet Nelissen, Report on the Elections in Nicaragua, 4 November 1984, on behalf of [Dutch] Government Observers; David Felix, “How to Resolve Latin America’s Debt Crisis,” Challenge, Nov./Dec. 1985; Brian Jenkins, New Modes of Conflict (Rand Corporation, June 1983); Inter-American Development Bank Report No. DES-13, Nicaragua, Jan. 1983, cited in Penrose, op. cit.; Jim Morrell, “Nicaragua’s War Economy,” International Policy Report, Nov. 1985; Morrell, “Redlining Nicaragua,” ibid., Dec. 1985; Jim Morrell and William Goodfellow, “Contadora: Under the Gun,” International Policy Report, May 1986; David MacMichael, testimony, International Court of Justice, Sept. 16, 1985, UN A/40/907, S/17639, 19 Nov. 1985, 26; Thomas W .
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action by Elinor Ostrom
agricultural Revolution, clean water, Gödel, Escher, Bach, land tenure, Pareto efficiency, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, RAND corporation, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs
In Paradoxes of Rationality and Cooperation, eds. R. Campbell and L. Sowden, pp. 3-41. Vancouver: Uni versity of British Columbia Press. Carruthers, I., and R. Stoner. 1981. Economic Aspects and Policy Issues in Groundwater Development. World Bank staff working paper No. 496, Wash ington, D.C. Cave, J. A. K. 1984. The Cold Fish War: Long-Term Competition in a Dynamic . Game. Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Corporation. Central and West Basin Water Replenishment District. 1987. Annual Survey Re port on Ground Water Replenishment. Glendale, Calif.: Bookman, Edmmonston Engineering. Chamberlin, J. 1974. Provision of Collective Goods as a Function of Group Size. American Political Science Review 68:707-16. Chambers, J. D., and G. E. Mingay. 1966. The Agricultural Revolution, 1750 1880. New York: Schocken Books.
., and P. C. Ordeshook. 1973. An Introduction to Positive Political Theory. New York: Prentice-HalL Roberts, M. 1980. Traditional Customs and Irrigation Development in Sri Lanka. In Irrigation and Agricultural Development in Asia, ed. E. W. Coward, Jr., pp. 186-202. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press. Rolph, E. S. 1982. Government Allocation of Property Rights: Why and How. Technical report, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California. Rolph, E. S. 1983. Government Allocation of Property Rights: Who Gets What? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 3:45-61. Rose-Ackerman, S. 1977. Market Models for Water Pollution Control: Their Strengths and Weaknesses. Public Policy 25:383--406. Rosenberg, N. 1982. Inside the Black Box: Technology and Economics. Cambridge 264 References University Press.
The Dream Machine: J.C.R. Licklider and the Revolution That Made Computing Personal by M. Mitchell Waldrop
Ada Lovelace, air freight, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Apple II, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bill Duvall, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Byte Shop, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Donald Davies, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, experimental subject, fault tolerance, Frederick Winslow Taylor, friendly fire, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, Haight Ashbury, Howard Rheingold, information retrieval, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Rulifson, John von Neumann, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, pink-collar, popular electronics, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Robert Metcalfe, Silicon Valley, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, Turing machine, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Von Neumann architecture, Wiener process, zero-sum game
Bigelow, meanwhile, was turning these ideas into working hardware, with far-reaching results. Because it was the first true stored-program computer-and because the Pentagon wanted replicas of its own for nuclear-weapons calculations- the Institute for Advanced Study's machine would serve as the model for first- generation computers constructed during the 1950s at the University of Illinois, the RAND Corporation, IBM, and the national laboratories at Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, and Argonne. Software. By 1947, von Neumann and Goldstine had laid the foundations for software engineering with the first installment of "Planning and Coding Prob- lems for an Electronic Computing Instrument," a report that they would pub- lish in three parts over the next year and that by default would become the standard textbook for the whole first generation of programmers.
Not only did he see it as the kind of adolescent saber-rattling that was going to get us all incinerated, but he felt that his old friend had come to personify a dangerously seductive brand of intellectual hubris. Through the use of innovative analytical tools such NEW KINDS OF PEOPLE 91 as von Neumann's game theory, went the argument-an argument that was al- ready being embraced by strategic thinkers in the government and in newly formed think tanks such as the RAND Corporation-the nuclear-arms race could be rationalized, mathematized, reasoned about, and managed. Wiener begged to differ. He certainly didn't favor ilTationality in human af- fairs; the world, he felt, had already heard entirely too much about the "triumph of the will" from Hitler and his ilk. But he did want to see this rising generation of mathematical Cold Warriors be a little less naive about the uncertainties of the world.
First, MIT had no desire to put so many people on the Lincoln Lab payroll for a single project. One day the air-defense programming would be finished, and then what would they do? IBM had much the same reaction, as did Bell Labs, another subcontractor. The upshot was that the programming respon- THE FREEDOM TO MAKE MISTAKES 119 sibility, along with many of the original Lincoln Lab programmers, were eventu- ally transferred to Santa Monica and the RAND Corporation's system develop- ment division, which in December 1956 would break away and become the independent Systems Development Corporation. Second, in the early 1950s there probably were no more than a few thousand programmers in the whole country. So the SAGE project soon found itself in the business of mass education. Special programming courses were set up at MIT, IBM, and RAND, and people from every walk of life were invited to en- roll.
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, double helix, European colonialism, John von Neumann, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, operation paperclip, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, uranium enrichment
He allocated as well $10 million to the Douglas Aircraft Company for a one-year program of long-range studies. The first study, completed in May 1946, was on the feasibility of launching a satellite into space for a variety of military uses from photoreconnaissance to weather reporting and communications. The Douglas enterprise, called Project RAND, for “research and development,” was separated from the aircraft firm within a couple of years and metamorphosed into the RAND Corporation, located in Santa Monica, California, the think tank that provided the soon to be independent U.S. Air Force with strategic and tactical analyses throughout the Cold War. Then, in January 1946, with less than a month to go before his retirement to his ranch in Northern California, Arnold had taken his final step. He had summoned Schriever and given him the mission of cultivating relations with the civilian scientific community in the postwar years through a new Scientific Liaison Branch to be established within the Research and Engineering Division. 22.
The aircraft, for example, while next-generation, had to be achievable within what could reasonably be foreseen in the advance of technology. Schriever, of course, lacked the knowledge to complete such projections by himself. To formulate them he had to organize teams of scientists and engineers and other specialists in each area, drawing on the talent pool available to him from the Scientific Advisory Board, the RAND Corporation, and consultants recruited from the universities and industry. The Development Planning job turned out to be excellent preparation for the work that lay ahead of him in overseeing the building of the intercontinental ballistic missile. Because he was always dealing with what was to be accomplished tomorrow and not today, he was learning how to differentiate between what was future-feasible and future-fantasy and to do so in a variety of disciplines, not just in aeronautical engineering, where he had specific competence.
The technology that applied to sending the bomb up and bringing it back down again intact applied to virtually everything else. The first American astronauts to venture into space were, in fact, to ride up on military missiles and to return in capsules that were modified versions of the initial hydrogen bomb warhead. Bennie imparted some of the exhilaration of this adventure in a secret briefing he gave to the staff of the Air Force’s think tank, the RAND Corporation, in nearby Santa Monica on January 31, 1955. He spoke of a warhead flashing through space at the previously unimaginable speed of 20,000 feet per second, of the “invulnerability” of this nuclear spear point to Soviet defenses. And yet, he said, the real objective of the adventure was to contribute to the preservation of peace. The ICBM was not being built to be used as a weapon. Rather, as an instrument of war the ICBM would have the “highest probability of Not being used.”
The Golden Passport: Harvard Business School, the Limits of Capitalism, and the Moral Failure of the MBA Elite by Duff McDonald
activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, Bayesian statistics, Bernie Madoff, Bob Noyce, Bonfire of the Vanities, business process, butterfly effect, capital asset pricing model, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate raider, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, deskilling, discounted cash flows, disintermediation, Donald Trump, family office, financial innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, George Gilder, glass ceiling, Gordon Gekko, hiring and firing, income inequality, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job-hopping, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, London Whale, Long Term Capital Management, market fundamentalism, Menlo Park, new economy, obamacare, oil shock, pattern recognition, performance metric, Peter Thiel, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit maximization, profit motive, pushing on a string, Ralph Nader, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, random walk, rent-seeking, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Sand Hill Road, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, survivorship bias, The Nature of the Firm, the scientific method, Thorstein Veblen, union organizing, urban renewal, Vilfredo Pareto, War on Poverty, William Shockley: the traitorous eight, women in the workforce, Y Combinator
On the other hand, there was this feeling of bewilderment that the lives of so many men should add up to no more than two simple columns.”28 The late Robert Bellah, an influential sociologist and moral philosopher, points to flaws in rational choice theory, which originated at the RAND Corporation, found support from the Ford Foundation, and an enthusiastic practitioner in Robert McNamara, as the sources of McNamara’s failure. The theory, which assumes that social life can be explained as the outcome of rational choices by individual actors, found an early foothold in economics with Kenneth Arrow’s 1951 book, Social Choice and Individual Values, and it remains the dominant economic idea at the University of Chicago. But the theory didn’t come from economics departments. It originated at the RAND Corporation in response to the desire of policy makers to mathematically model the decisions the Soviet Union might make during the Cold War. But even in that context, argued Bellah, it had a fatal flaw.
At that point, if you were an executive tasked with formulating and implementing strategy, you probably fell into one of two camps—those who viewed management as science or those who viewed management as art. If the former, then you probably leaned on the work of Igor Ansoff, whose 1965 book, Corporate Strategy, carried the subtitle “An Analytic Approach to Business Policy for Growth and Expansion”3 (with the difference between “growth” and “expansion” left unsaid). Ansoff had worked at the RAND Corporation before landing at Carnegie Mellon, and his systematic prescriptions were in keeping with the quantitative tilt of his employer. “If Chandler’s definition [of strategy] was baggy and capacious,” writes Walter Kiechel in The Lords of Strategy, “the notions introduced by Igor Ansoff . . . were filigreed to an overwrought fault.”4 Or worse: In laying out the framework for forecasting, Ansoff offhandedly assumed that most corporate forecasts would be within 20 percent of the eventual result.
That approach was rudely challenged when the playing field expanded beyond American shores and American ways of thinking, whether it was foreign automakers eating Detroit’s lunch or foreign combatants humbling McNamara’s Pentagon. McNamara’s tenure as secretary of defense can be considered in two phases as well. When he was acting as secretary of defense, he brought that rational approach to decision making to yet another organization badly in need of it. Budgets that had historically relied on patronage and parochialism were centralized. He hired Charles Hitch, chief economist at RAND Corporation, as comptroller, and tasked him with helping to build what came to be known as the Planning Programming Budgeting System, or PPBS, which was hailed by none other than Igor Ansoff as “an advanced version of the strategic planning system.”17 HBS’s Robert N. Anthony followed Hitch as comptroller, and between 1965 and 1968 worked on real, complex problems such as the question of how to reduce currency outflow in military procurement.
Media Control: The Spectacular Achievements of Propaganda by Noam Chomsky
The official definition is unusable. It's unusable for two important reasons. First of all, it's a very close paraphrase of official government policy-very close, in fact. When it's government policy, it's called low-intensity conflict or counterterror. Incidentally, it's not just the United States. As far as I'm aware, this practice is universal. Just as an example, back in the mid 1960s the Rand Corporation, the research agency connected with the Pentagon mostly, published a collection of interesting Japanese counterinsurgency manuals having to do with the Japanese attack on Manchuria and North China in the 1930s. I was kind of interested-I wrote an article on it at the time comparing the Japanese counterinsurgency manuals with U.S. counterinsurgency manuals for South Vietnam, which are virtually identical.s That article didn't fly too well, I should say.
The Great Stagnation by Tyler Cowen
Asian financial crisis, Bernie Madoff, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, income inequality, indoor plumbing, life extension, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Peter Thiel, RAND corporation, school choice, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, urban renewal
Plenty of careful studies question the value of spending a lot of money on health care. After putting statistical controls in place, aggregate health expenditures across the fifty states do not seem to predict health care outcomes. Nor, when we look across countries, does national life expectancy vary with medical care spending, once we control for income, education, diet, smoking, and use of pharmaceuticals. The famous RAND Corporation study of the 1970s gave thousands of Americans 100 percent free medical care, while the control group had to face insurance co-payments for care, as under normal circumstances. The group with free care consumed 25-30 percent more medical services. Yet, except for the very poorest group, the free health care didn’t make people any healthier. Most plausibly, that outcome is because many factors besides health care influence our health.
airport security, Alfred Russel Wallace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, book scanning, Cass Sunstein, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, David Brooks, Debian, double entry bookkeeping, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, future of journalism, Galaxy Zoo, Hacker Ethic, Haight Ashbury, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, invention of the telegraph, jimmy wales, John Harrison: Longitude, Kevin Kelly, linked data, Netflix Prize, New Journalism, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, openstreetmap, P = NP, Pluto: dwarf planet, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Republic of Letters, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, semantic web, slashdot, social graph, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, technological singularity, Ted Nelson, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, Whole Earth Catalog, X Prize
Some historians trace the rise of professional experts to a meeting held six months after the end of the Civil War,3 when one hundred reformers in various fields met in the Massachusetts State House and created the American Association for the Promotion of Social Science to advise their local communities and states about fixing everything from education to urban poverty, all based on the latest scientific research. 4 By the early 1900s, experts wielding “scientific management” techniques pioneered by Frederick Wilson Taylor—immortalized as the man with a clipboard and a stopwatch, timing the movements of workers—were sweeping through field after field.5 Even the home was now subject to the work of experts; as Ellen Swallow Richards, the founder of home economics and the first woman to get an engineering degree from MIT, wrote: “The work of homemaking in this scientific age must be worked out on engineering principles and with the cooperation of trained men and trained women.”6 Experts as full-time professional knowers needed professional institutions to support them. The first of these, the Brookings Institution, was founded in 1916, to provide policy advice to the government. By the 1950s, the Defense Department was relying on the RAND Corporation to help figure out questions of global life and death, including how nuclear war might be waged “successfully” and thus what types of bombs to build. RAND (the name comes from “Research and Development”) gave us our modern image of the expert, and he looked like Herman Kahn. The egg-shaped Kahn made a career by (as the title of his best-selling book put it) Thinking the Unthinkable: how to win a nuclear war.
See also Books and book publishing Paper-based tools Parenting experts Patent Office, US PatientsLikeMe.com Pavement performance Peer-review journals Perception, facts and Permission-free knowledge Philosophy defining and quantifying knowledge information overload reality unresolved knowledge Pinker, Steven Planetary Skin initiative Plato PLoS One online journal Pogue, David Polio vaccine Politics Politifact.com Popper, Karl Population growth, Malthusian theory of Pornography Postmodernism Pragmatism PressThink.org Primary Insight Principles of Geology (Lyell) Prize4Life Protein folding ProteomeCommons.org Pseudo-science Public Library of Science (PLoS) Punchcard data Pyramid, knowledge Pyramid of organizational efficiency Quora Racial/ethnic identity Ramanujan, Srinivasa RAND Corporation Random Hacks of Kindness Rauscher, Francis Raymond, Eric Reagan, Ronald Reality Reason as the path to truth and knowledge critical debate on unresolved knowledge Reliability Repositories, open access Republic of Letters Republican Party Republic.com (Sunstein) Revolution in the Middle East Rheingold, Howard Richards, Ellen Swallow Riesman, David Robustness “The Rock” (Eliot) Rogers, William Rorty, Richard Rosen, Jay Roskam, Peter Rushkoff, Douglas Russia: Dogger Bank Incident Salk, Jonas Sanger, Larry Schmidt, Michael School shootings Science amateurs in crowdsourcing expertise failures in goals of hyperlinked inflation of scientific studies interdisciplinary approaches media relations Net-based inquiry open filtering journal articles open-notebook overgeneration of scientific facts philosophical and professional differences among scientists public and private realms scientific journals transformation of scientific knowledge Science at Creative Commons Science journal Scientific journals Scientific management Scientific method Self-interest: fact-based knowledge Semantic Web Seneca Sensory overload Sexual behavior The Shallows (Carr) Shapiro, Jesse Shared experiences Shilts, Randy Shirky, Clay Shoemaker, Carolyn Simplicity in scientific thought Simulation of physical interactions Slashdot.com Sloan Digital Sky Survey Smart mobs “Smarter planet” initiative Smith, Arfon Smith, Richard Soccer Social conformity Social networks crowdsourcing expertise Middle East revolutions pooling expertise scaling social filtering Social policy: social role of facts Social reform Dickens’s antipathy to fact-based knowledge global statistical support for Bentham’s ideas Social tools: information overload Society of Professional Journalists Socrates Software defaults Software development, contests for Sotomayor, Sonia Source transparency Space Shuttle disaster Spiro, Mary Sports Sprinkle, Annie Standpoint transparency Statistics emergence of Hunch.com Stopping points for knowledge The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn) Stupidity, Net increasing Sub-networks Suel, Gurol Sunlight Foundation Sunstein, Cass Surowiecki, James Systems biology Tag cloud Tagging Tatalias, Jean Taylor, Frederick Wilson TechCamps Technodeterminism Technology easing information overload Technorati.com Television, homophily and Temptation of hyperlinks Think tanks Thoreau, Henry David The Tipping Point (Gladwell) Todd, Mac Toffler, Alvin TopCopder Topic-based expertise Torvalds, Linus Traditional knowledge Tranche Transparency hyperlinks contributing to objectivity and of the Net Open Government Initiative Transparency and Open Government project Triangular knowledge Trillin, Calvin Trust: reliability of information Trust-through-authority system Truth elements of knowledge reason as the path to value of networked knowledge Twitter Tyme, Mae Unnailing facts Updike, John USAID UsefulChem notebook Vaccinations Verizon Vietnam Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Wales, Jimmy Wallace, Alfred Russel Walter, Skip Washington Post Watson, James Welch, Jack Welfare The WELL (The Whole Earth’Lectronic Link) Whole Earth Catalog Wikipedia editorial policy LA Times wikitorial experiment policymaking Virginia Tech shootings Wikswo, John Wilbanks, John Wired magazine The Wisdom of Crowds (Surowiecki) Wise crowds Wittgenstein, Ludwig Wolfram, Stephen WolframAlpha.com World Bank World Cup World War I Wurman, Richard Saul Wycliffe, John York, Jillian YourEncore Zappa, Frank Zeleny, Milan Zettabyte Zittrain, Jonathan Zuckerman, Ethan a I’m leaving this as an unsupported idea because it’s not the point of this book.
The Big Shift: Navigating the New Stage Beyond Midlife by Marc Freedman
airport security, Berlin Wall, David Brooks, follow your passion, illegal immigration, Isaac Newton, McMansion, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, transcontinental railway, working poor, working-age population
The semicolon is an alternative both to the period, designating an ending, and the comma, a brief pause along the way. The semicolon suggests continuity, a genuine break, and more to come. For a life course in desperate need of punctuation, the grown-up gap year is the perfect way to rectify the run-on sentence. Many people are already taking time off, in one form or another. Some even call it retirement. A 2010 study from the RAND Corporation shows that a sizable portion of the U.S. population first retires and then “unretires,” an act researchers find is primarily by design and not the result of unexpected circumstances. In other words, many may be using the cover of retirement, followed by unretirement, as a kind of de facto gap period. And these interludes are hardly exclusive to the United States. In Britain, for example, there are an estimated 200,000 “grey gappers” taking a career break, according to one report.
CHAPTER 7: TEN STEPS TOWARD A NEW STAGE 131 Carl Jung argued that: Carl Jung, “The Stages of Life,” in The Structure and Dynamics of the Psyche, by Carl Jung (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1969). 131 In her groundbreaking “Grandmother Hypothesis”: Kristen Hawkes, “Grandmothers and the Evolution of Human Longevity,” American Journal of Human Biology 15 (2003). 132 Historian Jill Lepore: Jill Lepore, “Baby Talk: The Fuss About Parenthood,” New Yorker, June 29, 2009. 135 the “optimal design for a new stage of life”: “On the Brink of a Brand-New Old Age,” New York Times, January 2, 2001. 135 it’s almost as if the GPS program: I’m indebted to my former colleague John Gomperts for this image. 139 A 2010 study from the RAND Corporation: Nicole Maestas, “Back to Work: Expectations and Realizations of Work After Retirement,” Journal of Human Resources 45, no. 3 (2010): 718–748. 139 In Britain, for example, there are an estimated 200,000: Geraldine Bedell and Rowena Young, eds., The New Old Age: Perspectives on Innovating Our Way to the Good Life for All (London: National Endowment for Science, Technology, and the Arts, 2009), http://www.nesta.org.uk/library/documents/the-new-old-age.pdf. 139 Daniel Pink suggests: Daniel H.
Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, automated trading system, bank run, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, Bretton Woods, British Empire, buttonwood tree, Claude Shannon: information theory, Corn Laws, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, fiat currency, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, Grace Hopper, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Maui Hawaii, Menlo Park, Metcalfe's law, Metcalfe’s law, packet switching, price mechanism, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, profit motive, railway mania, RAND corporation, Robert Metcalfe, Silicon Valley, Small Order Execution System, South Sea Bubble, spice trade, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, tulip mania, Turing machine, Turing test, William Shockley: the traitorous eight
Meanwhile, the British computer industry smoldered in the embers of the burnt Colossus machines. What a turning point. The British Empire had died and now was officially cremated. Work on computers and their acronymic names took off everywhere, with added urgency when the Soviets tested their atomic bomb in 1949: Turing’s MADAM; Maurice Vincent Wilkes’s EDSAC Electronic Delay Storage Automatic Calculator at Cambridge; Rand Corporation’s UNIVAC - Universal Automatic Computer; and topping them all acronymically, Nick Metropolis’ MANIAC - Mathematical and Numerical Integrator and Computer. Each contained more vacuum tubes, more memory and more sophisticated programming. Most were funded directly or indirectly by the Army or Navy, to research guided missiles, hydrogen bombs and aircraft design. These were still vertically organized companies and institutions that insisted on their own computer structure and their own set of codes and software.
It didn’t want no stinking 144 HOW WE GOT HERE theories, it wanted something it could use. NORAD was nervous about being out of touch, especially with its command center dug into the mountains near Cheyenne. So the Air Force sprinkled money around for research on ways to resolve the vulnerability of communications networks, which were dependant on centralized phone switches. Some of it went to the RAND Corporation, a Santa Monica, California think-tank spun out of Douglas Aircraft in 1948 to worry about such things. One researcher there, Paul Baran, was an electrical engineer who had worked at nearby Hughes Aircraft. In August 1964, he laid out his theory in a paper titled “On Distributed Computing.” You can read it at RAND’s website. Baran described standard message blocks and “store and forward” transmissions and hot potato routing.
Planet of Slums by Mike Davis
barriers to entry, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Brownian motion, centre right, clean water, conceptual framework, crony capitalism, declining real wages, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, edge city, European colonialism, failed state, Gini coefficient, Hernando de Soto, housing crisis, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, jitney, jobless men, Kibera, labor-force participation, land reform, land tenure, liberation theology, low-wage service sector, mandelbrot fractal, market bubble, megacity, microcredit, New Urbanism, Pearl River Delta, Ponzi scheme, RAND corporation, rent control, structural adjustment programs, surplus humans, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, working poor
"The future of warfare," the journal of the Army War College declared, "lies in the streets, sewers, highrise buildings, and sprawl of houses that form the broken cities of the world.... Our recent military history is punctuated with city names — Tuzla, Mogadishu, Los Angeles [!], Beirut, Panama City, Hue, Saigon, Santo Domingo — but these encounters have been but a prologue, with the real drama still to come."8 To help develop a larger conceptual framework for MOUT, military planners turned in the 1990s to Dr. Strangelove's old alma mater, the Santa Monica-based RAND Corporation. RAND, a nonprofit think tank established by the Air Force in 1948, was notorious for wargaming nuclear Armageddon in the 1950s and for helping to strategize the Vietnam War in the 1960s. These days RAND does cities: its researchers ponder urban crime statistics, inner-city public health, and the privatization of public education. They also run the Army's Arroyo Center, which has published a small library of studies on the social contexts and tactical mechanics of urban warfare.
tenure 80 slum-dwellers 32 Konadu-Agyemang, Kwadwo 84—5, 96 structural adjustment programs Korff, Riidiger 65, 83, 183 155-6 Korogocho 44 Khulna City 128 Krasheninnokov, Alexey 166 Kibaki, Mwai 101 Krishnakumar, Asha 140-1 Kibera 92, 94, 95, 101, 139, 143, 145 Krung Thep see Bangkok kidney trade 190 Kuala Lumpur 47, 111, 188 Kingston 32 Kumasi 35, 141-2 Kinshasa 191-8 inequalities 97 Lagos military planning 204 anti-IMF protests 162 population 4 "architecture of fear" 116 public services 155 beautification campaign 104 sewage 139 economic recession 14 slum-dwellers 23, 25 environmental disasters 129 urbanization 2, 16 evictions 101, 102 water 146 fires 128 Kipling, Rudyard 22, 138 land speculation 87 Kirkby, Richard 62 military planning 204 Klak, Thomas 67 overcrowding 93—4 Kohl, Helmut 153 population 4, 5 - 6 Kolkata (Calcutta) relocations 98 Dhapa dump 47 renting 35 evictions 101—2 road networks 119 housing 66 sewage 138 informal sector 181—2 slum-dwellers 23 inner city poverty 32 street-dwellers 36—7 Kipling on 22 structural adjustment programs NGOs 77 152 overcrowding 92 traffic accidents 132, 133 population 4 urbanization 1, 2, 8 poverty line 25n20 Victoria Island 115 privies 143 land speculation 82, 84-9, 91 refugees 55-6 land-titling 80-2, 90 rickshaws 189-90 landlordism 42-3, 44, 82-4, 86-7, 89 slum dwellers 26, 27 see also renting landslides 122-3 Lisbon 42 Laquian, Aprodicio 177 Lobito 49 Larkin, Emmet 16 London 82-3, 94, 175 Latin America conservative reform 81 Los Angeles 12, 16, 36, 124, 203 Luanda inequality 157—8 evictions 102-3 informal sector 176-7, 180, 182 growth of 16 inner-city poverty 32 poverty 25 labor 46-7 refugees 49 loss of manufacturing segregation 97 employment 164 modernization 15 unemployment 164 water sales 145—6 NGOs 77 Lubove, Roy 92 renting 43 Luce, Edward 171 rural migrants 46 Lusaka sanitation problems 137, 139, 148 demolitions 111 semi-proletarianization 174 disease 143 slow urban growth 54—5 poverty 31 squatting 38, 39, 83 segregation 96 structural adjustment programs shantytowns 37 155, 156 urbanization 5, 8, 10, 59-60 sites-and-services scheme 74 urban migration 51 women 158—9 Layachi, Azzedine 125-6 McNamara, Robert 71, 72, 75 Lee-Smith, Diana 44 magic 194, 195, 196-8 Lesbet, Djaffar 65 Malan, Rian 60-1 Lewis, Oscar 32 Malawi 97 liberalization 15, 155-6, 175 Malaysia 9, 26, 47, 188 Lilongwe 97 Mallaby, Sebastian 75, 76 Lima Mamayes 122 earthquakes 127 Managua 118-19 housing 34, 67 Manchester 16, 137, 138 middle classes 33 Mandalay 47-8, 107 population 4 Mangin, William 71 poverty 26-7, 32, 157 Manila squatters 89 beautification campaigns 104 urbanization 1, 16 class conflicts 98-9 Manila (Cont'd.) fires 127, 128 flooding 123-4 gated communities 116 structural adjustment programs 148, 152-3 urbanization 16 Mexico City hazardous slum locations 121 disease 143-4 land ownership 84 environmental disasters 126, 129, land prices 9 2 , 9 9 130 land-titling 82 housing 61—2 population 4 land ownership 91 poverty 26 loss of manufacturing Smoky Mountain 47, 127 employment 164 water sales 145 pollution 129, 133, 137 World Bank project 73 population 2n6, 4, 5 Manshiyet Nasr 93 region-based urbanization 10 Maoism 53, 56 regularization 80-1 Maputo 25, 143 renting 43, 45 Marcos, Imelda 73, 104 rural migrants 46, 55 Marcus, Steven 137-8, 174 Santa Cruz Meyehualco 47 Maroko 101 satellite cities 99 Marx, Karl 16 slum-dwellers 23, 26, 27, 31 Marxism 174 taxation 68 Mathare 142 urban growth 17, 59-60 Mathey, Kosta 66 Meyer, Hannes 61 Mayhew, Henry 20 micro-enterprises 80, 179, 180, 181, Mbuji-Mayi 8 megacities 2, 4, 5-8, 50-1, 147 megaslums 26, 28, 92, 150 183-4 middle classes 32, 43, 157, 202 car use 132,133 Megawati Sukarnoputri 113 housing policy 65, 66, 69 Mehta, Suketu 141 India 97, 100, 150, 171, 172 Mejfa, Manuel 105-6 inner-city housing 83 Mexico land ownership 91 debt crisis 159 property investment 86 housing 67 Russia 166 informal sector 176-7 tax evasion 67 poverty 26, 32, 157, 164-5, 184 World Bank urban projects 73, 74 rural areas 11 slum-dwellers 23, 24 see also elites; social class Middle East 39, 58, 165, 185 migrants 27-9, 46, 51-61, 168n63, 169-70, 172 sewage 138, 140 slum-dwellers 1 8 , 2 3 , 2 6 , 3 1 Milanovic, Branko 21 street-dwellers 36 military planning 202-6 urban development authorities Mitchell, Timothy 85 68-9 Mitlin, Diana 77 water sales 145 Mobutu, Sese Seko 58-9, 191, 192, women 141 193, 194 World Bank project 73-4 Mogadishu 203 Mwacan, Angeline 146 Mohan, Rakesh 40 Mwangi, Meja 138 Moi, Daniel Arap 101 Myanmar (Burma) 52, 107-8 Molina, Humberto 86 Mombasa 18 Nairobi Monrovia 137 child mortality 146 Montevideo 32-3 colonial period 51 Morel, Edmundo 105-6 evictions 101, 102 mortality 146-7 fires 128 Moscow 22, 166-7 inequality 95 Moser, Caroline 159 landlordism 44, 87 Mugabe, Robert 113, 114 overcrowding 94 Mumbai (Bombay) population growth 18 child labor 186 rack-renting 35, 42 colonial period 52 sewage 138, 139, 143 death rates 146-7 water contamination 137 deindustrialization 13 encroachment into protected areas 136 water sales 144-5 Naples 22, 42, 83, 94, 175-6 Nasser, Gamal Abdel 61, 200 evictions 102 natural disasters 122-8 housing 34, 65—6 Navarro 49 inequalities 96, 97 Nedoroscik, Jeffrey 33, 86, 190 land ownership 84 Negri, A. 201 overcrowding 92 Nehru, Jawaharlal 61, 200 pollution 133-4 neoclassical theory 163 population 4, 5 neoliberalism 16, 79, 81, 141, 163, 200 privatization 171 Chile 156 refugees 55-6 Colombian drug cartels 165 satellite cities 99 cost-recovery 72 neoliberalism (Cont'd.) flexible labor 185 Old Havana 32 Olympic Games 106-7 globalization 174 Orientalism 205-6 impact on healthcare 147-8 overcrowding 53, 92-4 India 170, 171, 172 individualism 184 informal sector 180, 186 Pakistan land speculation 84 Mexico 159 poverty 165—6 optimism 202 refugees 48, 56 privatization of toilets 141 South Africa 154 Nepal 23 slum population 24 Palm Springs 42 Paris 64, 98 New Bombay 65-6, 99 Payatas 124 New York 4, 5, 44, 92 Payne, Geoffrey 80, 126 NGOs see non-governmental peasants 53-4, 55, 60, 91, 169, 174 organizations Peattie, Lisa 72-3 Nguyen Due Nhuan 66 Peil, Margaret 87 Nicaragua 38 Penang 47 Nientied, Peter 88 Pentecostalism 195, 196 Nigeria Perez Jimenez, Marcos 54, 59 beautification campaign 104 peripherality 37-8, 93 child mortality 148 Peru housing 66-7 housing policy 62 slum population 24 informal sector 177 structural adjustment programs 152, 156 recession 157 rural migrants 27 Nkrumah, Kwame 200 slum population 24 Nlundu, Thierry Mayamba 198 squatting 38 Nock, Magdalena 11 Pezzoli, Keith 91 non-governmental organizations Philippines (NGOs) 70, 71, 75-9, 154, 184 beautification campaigns 104—5 North Korea 54 health spending 148 Nuru, Karin 51 slum population 24 World Bank project 73 Oberai, A. 67-8, 74, 179 Phnom Penh 35, 54, 107, 145 Ofeimun, Odia 101 Pinochet, Augusto 109, 156 Okome, Onookome 1 Pol Pot 54, 107 politics 100, 109-11 pollution 129-30, 133-4, 136-7, 143, 145-6 polycentric urban systems 9 , 1 0 structural adjustment programs 152, 153 toilets 141-2 transport 132 population density 92-3, 95-6, 99 water 146 population growth 2, 3, 7, 18 World Bank policies 164 Port-au-Prince 92, 142, 188, 204 property rights 45, 79-80, 179 Portes, Alejandro 180, 185n40 protests 161-3 Potts, Deborah 156 PRSP see Poverty Reduction Strategy poverty 24-6, 27, 151-73 Papers Africa 6, 18 public transport 131-2 Algeria 165 Puerto Rico 122 China 170 Pugh, Cedric 72, 160 Eastern Europe 167 Pusan 16 India 5, 170, 171, 172, 173 Putin, Vladimir 167 inner city 31-7 Latin America 156-7 Quarantina 47 Mexico 164-5, 184 Quito 32, 86, 136, 146, 159 Nigeria 156 overurbanization 16 racial segregation 96-7 Pakistan 165-6 Raftopoulos, Brian 114 periurban 201 Rakodi, Carole 155 profiting from 82-9 RAND Corporation 203-4 rural 51 Rangel, Jose Vincente 123 Russia 166 Rangoon 47-8, 102, 107-8, 144 UN-HABITAT report 20, 21 Reagan, Ronald 153 urban hazards 124, 128 refugees 48-9, 55-6, 100, 194 urbanization of 50 regularization 80-1 Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) 75-6 privatization renting 42-5 see also landlordism resistance 109-11, 161-3, 202 Algeria 165 Rhodesia see Zimbabwe Congo 193 rickshaws 188-90 education 203 Rigg, Jonathan 26 healthcare 149, 159 Riis, Jacob 20 housing 63, 71 Rio de Janeiro India 171 hazardous slum locations 122 Rio de Janeiro (Cont'd.) 150 inequality 157 colonial period 52, 53 inner city poverty 32 India 171 pollution 129 Mumbai 73 population 4 Santa Cruz Meyehualco 47 slum clearances 99, 102, 108 Santiago 10, 32, 109, 176 slum dwellers 27, 31 Santo Domingo 96, 102, 105-6, 203 verticalization of favelas 93 Rio/Sao Paulo Extended Metropolitan Range (RSPER) 5 Sao Paulo deindustrialization 13 favelas 17, 34 riots 162 gated communities 117-18 Riskin, Carl 168 industrialization 16 road networks 118-19 inner-city poverty 32 Roberts, Bryan 182 loss of manufacturing Robotham, Don 164 employment 164 Rocha, Mercedes de la 184 pollution 129, 130, 133 Rodenbeck, Max 33 population 4 Rodgers, Dennis 118-19 region-based urbanization 10 Rogerson, Christine 160-1 regularization 81 Roma 167 rent prices 86 Roy, Ananya 102 slum dwellers 23 Roy, Arundhati 79, 140 water contamination 136 RSPER see Rio/Sao Paulo Extended Metropolitan Range SAPs see structural adjustment programs Ruggeri, Laura 115,119-20 Schenk, Hans 46, 128 rural areas 1 0 , 1 1 , 1 6 0 Schenk-Sandbergen, Loes 141 China 9, 53-4 Schneider, Cathy 109 India 171-2 Schultz, George 153 see also peasants Scott, James 39 Russian Federation 23-4, 166-7 SCRSs see substandard commercial Sabana Perdida 105 Seabrook, Jeremy 9, 70, 72, 100 residential subdivisions Sadat, Anwar 110-11 Dhaka 189 Sadr City 144, 205 hazardous slum locations 121, St.
A Theory of the Drone by Gregoire Chamayou
Formica explained, with undisguised enthusiasm, in an e-mail: “Kill boxes enable us to do what we wanted to do for years . . . rapidly adjust the delineation of battlespace. . . . Now with automation technology and USAF [U.S. Air Force] employment of kill boxes, you really have a very flexible way of delineating battlespace both in time and on the ground.”19 In a memo addressed in 2005 to secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld, the president of the RAND Corporation advised him that “a non-linear system of ‘kill boxes’ should be adopted, as technology permits,” for counterinsurgency operations.20 He stressed the following essential point: “Kill boxes can be sized for open terrain or urban warfare and opened or closed quickly in response to a dynamic military situation.”21 This twofold principle of intermittence and scalar modulation for the kill box is of capital importance: it makes it possible to envisage extending such a model beyond the zones of declared conflict.
See also law enforcement political analysis, 15 political automata, fabrication of, 205–21 political economy, 181, 186, 189 political geography, 52–53, 54 political philosophy, history of, 177–84 political science, American, 186 political subjectivity, relinquishing of, 205–21 political vulnerabilization, 184 politics, 66 self-deception and, 240n14 of verticality, 53–54, 66–67 Porter, Gareth, 50–51 postcolonial violence, 94–95 post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), 103, 106–13 definition of, 110–11 Powell, Colin, 186 power, 229–30n5 aerial, 53–54 corporeality and, 218–19, 221, 268n1 projection of, 12–13, 230n6 pragmatic co-presence, 247–54n8 precision, 56–57, 140–49 of aerial weaponry, 62–63 collateral damage and, 140 precision-distinction thesis, 142–47 surveillance and, 143–45 Predator drones, 13, 14, 28–29, 99, 141–42, 214–15 electronic communications and, 41 genealogy of, 26–29 name of, 35 transformation into a weapon, 29 video feeds transmitted by, 75 Predator (Martin), 114 predictive calculation, 34 preemptive anticipation, 42–44 “preemptive manhunting,” 32 presence, definition of, 247–54n8 preservation of life, 127, 136, 138–39, 154–55, 180–81 military ethos and, 100–101, 131–33, 136–37 national, 194 sovereignty and, 182 by substitution, 187 press, 14, 107–8, 148 See also specific media outlets principle of unnecessary risk, 137 profiling, 42, 47, 51, 145 See also pattern-of-life analysis programming, 210–11, 212 projecting power, 12–13, 54, 77, 229–30n5, 230n6 prophylactic elimination, 34, 35 proportionality, 137–38, 162, 169, 198, 215, 216, 269–70n10, 273n26 protection obedience and, 178–79 political sovereignty and, 178–79 protection debt, 179 state–subject relations and, 178–79 protective sovereignty, 178–79, 183–84, 194, 268n5 protectorates, 178 protests, 142 See also antiwar movement proximity acuteness and, 262n10 killing and, 115–17, 116 optical, 255–56n22, 255n13 perceptual, 116–17 surveillance and, 116–17 tele-technologies and, 247–54n8 psychopathologies, 106–13 Pufendorf, Samuel von, 160–61, 163 pursuit, rights of, 53 radio-controlled planes, 85, 242–43n1 Radioplane Company, 25, 26 radio police automatons, 219, 220, 221 radios, 41 Rafael Armament Development Authority, 261n12 RAND Corporation, 55 rational choice, theory of, 186 RCA, 84–85 Reaper drones, 35, 41, 92, 92 reciprocity eradication of, 17 right to kill and, 163–64, 165 violence and, 196 warfare and, 161–62 reconnaissance, 28 Red Army Faction, 68 Red Brigades, 68 Reisner, Daniel, 167 remote control, 21, 23, 242–43n1 as philanthropic device, 23 remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs), 27–28, 85, 96 See also radio-controlled planes remote warfare, 192, 230n6 Republic (Plato), 96 republican regimes, 183, 185 repugnance generate by killing, theory of, 115–16, 197, 246n19 responsibility.
How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance by Parag Khanna
Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, back-to-the-land, bank run, blood diamonds, Bob Geldof, borderless world, BRICs, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, charter city, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, commoditize, continuation of politics by other means, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, don't be evil, double entry bookkeeping, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, friendly fire, global village, Google Earth, high net worth, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, labour mobility, laissez-faire capitalism, Live Aid, Masdar, mass immigration, megacity, microcredit, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, New Urbanism, off grid, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, out of africa, Parag Khanna, private military company, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, sustainable-tourism, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, X Prize
The bottom line, says Kate Willard, another AID leader, is that “there are far more players working on far more levels of global policy than any single organization can reflect.” Thanks to AID, these students are prepared for the open yet sometimes opaque world of neo-medieval diplomacy in which individuals can play multiple roles and juggle multiple issues at the same time. There is no better example of this than Zalmay Khalilzad. After the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the ouster of the Taliban, Khalilzad—an Afghan American working for the RAND Corporation—was appointed special envoy and then ambassador to the country. Armed with knowledge of Dari and Pashto and billions of U.S. dollars, and eventually backed by tens of thousands of American troops, he set about nation building and playing warlord politics. For three years he was constantly whispering in Afghan president Hamid Karzai’s ear, and allegedly also in the ears of his opponents, earning him the label “viceroy.”
New York: Zed Books, 2003. Rodrik, Dani. In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2003. ———. One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2008. Ronfeldt, David. Tribes, Institutions, Markets, Networks: A Framework About Societal Evolution. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1996. Root, Hilton L. Alliance Curse: How America Lost the Third World. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2008. Rosenau, James N. Distant Proximities: The Dynamics and Dialectics of Globalization. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2003. ———. Turbulence in World Politics: A Theory of Change and Continuity. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1990. Rosenau, James N., and Ernst-Otto Czempiel, eds.
Capitalism: A Ghost Story by Arundhati Roy
activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Bretton Woods, corporate governance, feminist movement, Frank Gehry, ghettoisation, Howard Zinn, informal economy, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, megacity, microcredit, neoliberal agenda, Occupy movement, RAND corporation, reserve currency, special economic zone, spectrum auction, stem cell, The Chicago School, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks
It means sharing Intelligence, altering agriculture and energy policies, opening up the health and education sectors to global investment. It means opening up retail. It means an unequal partnership in which India is being held close in a bear hug and waltzed around the floor by a partner who will incinerate her the moment she refuses to dance. In the list of ORF’s “institutional partners” you will also find the RAND Corporation, the Ford Foundation, the World Bank, the Brookings Institution (whose stated mission is to “provide innovative and practical recommendations that advance three broad goals: strengthen American democracy; foster the economic and social welfare, security and opportunity of all Americans; and secure a more open, safe, prosperous, and cooperative international system”). You will also find the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation of Germany.
The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom by Evgeny Morozov
A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, don't be evil, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Google Earth, illegal immigration, invention of radio, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Marshall McLuhan, Naomi Klein, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, peer-to-peer, pirate software, pre–internet, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Sinatra Doctrine, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, social graph, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, The Wisdom of Crowds, urban planning, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce
It just took a few months to add analytical luster to Reagan’s pronouncements and turn it into something of a coherent history. In 1990, the RAND Corporation, a California-based think tank that, perhaps by the sheer virtue of its propitious location, never passes up an opportunity to praise the powers of modern technology, reached a strikingly similar conclusion. “The communist bloc failed,” it said in a timely published study, “not primarily or even fundamentally because of its centrally controlled economic policies or its excessive military burdens, but because its closed societies were too long denied the fruits of the information revolution.” This view has proved remarkably sticky. As late as 2002, Francis Fukuyama, himself a RAND Corporation alumnus, would write that “totalitarian rule depended on a regime’s ability to maintain a monopoly over information, and once modern information technology made that impossible, the regime’s power was undermined.”
See also Culture Popular Mechanics Populism Pornography Postman, Neil Pouraghayi, Saeedeh Power “Power of the Powerless” (Havel) Prague Pravda Price, Cedric Prior, Markus Privacy Propaganda and Chavez in China in Egypt in Iran and middle class and public discourse in Russia in South Korea susceptibility to See also Censorship; Spin Protection by obscurity Przeworski, Adam Psiphon Public discourse Public-opinion guidance Putin, Vladimir “Putin and His Ideology” (Chadayev) Putnam, Robert Racism Radio Radio broadcasting Radio Doctor (radio program) Radio Free Europe and CIA Radio Martí Raja News website RAND Corporation Reagan, Ronald Recognizr Red-texting Reductionism Religion RentAFriend.com Reporters Without Borders (RSF) Research funding of Revisionism Revolutionary Guards Reynolds, Glenn Rezaei, Alireza Rice, Condoleezza Ringelmann, Max Ringelmann Effect Rittel, Horst Roberts, Hal Robertson, Pat Romania Roosevelt, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Kermit Roosevelt, Theodore Roosevelt, Theodore, Jr.
Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets by David J. Leinweber
AI winter, algorithmic trading, asset allocation, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, butterfly effect, buttonwood tree, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, citizen journalism, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Danny Hillis, demand response, disintermediation, distributed generation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, experimental economics, financial innovation, fixed income, Gordon Gekko, implied volatility, index arbitrage, index fund, information retrieval, intangible asset, Internet Archive, John Nash: game theory, Kenneth Arrow, Khan Academy, load shedding, Long Term Capital Management, Machine translation of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak." to Russian and back, market fragmentation, market microstructure, Mars Rover, Metcalfe’s law, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, natural language processing, negative equity, Network effects, optical character recognition, paper trading, passive investing, pez dispenser, phenotype, prediction markets, quantitative hedge fund, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Stallman, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, semantic web, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Silicon Valley, Small Order Execution System, smart grid, smart meter, social web, South Sea Bubble, statistical arbitrage, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Tacoma Narrows Bridge, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, Turing machine, Upton Sinclair, value at risk, Vernor Vinge, yield curve, Yogi Berra, your tax dollars at work
Aronson Managing Partner, Aronson⫹Johnson⫹Ortiz Past Chairman, CFA Institute xi Acknowledgments T he most recent of the essays in this book were written in December 2008, while others go back to the start of electronic markets—a span of over 20 years, so there are a lot of people to thank. In more or less chronological order, Karen Goldberg, of the MacArthur High School math department for letting me play with what passed for a computer there, Henry Kendall of MIT, for letting me play with a real one, Harry Lewis at Harvard, for suggesting that my empty course brackets be filled at the Business School; Bruno Augenstein and Willis Ware, at RAND Corporation, for getting me interested in real-time artificial intelligence; Steve Wyle at LISP Machines and Don Putnam and Lew Roth at Inference Corporation for encouragement and assistance to hammer the square peg of early artificial intelligence into the round hole of finance; Dale Prouty, Yossi Beinart, and Mark Wright of Integrated Analytics for rounding off the peg into MarketMind and later QuantEx; Ray Killian and Frank Baxter of Jefferies and ITG, for noticing that the rounded peg now did fit the finance hole.
They were more of a diversion than an avocation, but the accident of the brackets had more influence subsequently than I could have imagined at the time. Harry also enlisted me as the computer science department’s representative on the Committee on Graduate Education, which gave me a reason to hang out in the dean’s office. Grad students wait for deans, and while perusing the reading material near his couch I found he was on the board of the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica. He suggested it Intr oduction xxi might be a nice place to work, right on the beach with no blizzards. I put it on my list. Gray Silver Shadow When the time came to find a real job, I was going out to the University of California at Los Angeles to interview for a faculty position, and I added RAND to the schedule. UCLA told me to stay in the Holiday Inn on Wilshire Boulevard, rent a car, and come out in February 1977.
In Imaginary Weapons: A Journey Through the Pentagon’s Scientific Underworld, Defense Technology International editor Sharon Weinberger tells the remarkable story of how tens of millions of dollars were spent on a crackpot idea for what amounted to a nuclear hand grenade, despite the efforts of the most senior Pentagon scientists to scuttle the project, and the dubious utility of such a weapon. Who would want to throw it? Does the world need a nuke that fits in a lunch bag?10 My personal favorite for a bad technology idea, now in second place after the models that helped create the financial meltdown (but only because it was never built), was described at a RAND Corporation seminar in the early 1980s by then Undersecretary of 288 Nerds on Wall Str eet Defense Bill Perry (later Secretary of Defense in the Clinton years, and not to be confused with the Fridge of the Chicago Bears). I asked him what the worst idea ever to cross his desk at the Pentagon was. Without hesitation, he said that, to his consternation, a proposal had gotten as far as his office to place a huge array of nuclear-powered rocket engines on the far side of the moon, and in the event of hostilities, fire the rockets to plunge the moon into the Soviet Union.
Cities Under Siege: The New Military Urbanism by Stephen Graham
airport security, anti-communist, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, call centre, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, creative destruction, credit crunch, DARPA: Urban Challenge, defense in depth, deindustrialization, digital map, edge city, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, Food sovereignty, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Google Earth, illegal immigration, income inequality, knowledge economy, late capitalism, loose coupling, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, McMansion, megacity, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, one-state solution, pattern recognition, peak oil, planetary scale, private military company, Project for a New American Century, RAND corporation, RFID, Richard Florida, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, smart transportation, surplus humans, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, Washington Consensus, white flight, white picket fence
Nevertheless, the operators of ‘Chicago’ remained confident that Western militaries would eventually train there, and by 2007 it was clear that US Marines would be using Baladia, despite initial fears that this would generate negative publicity. WAR GHOST TOWNS Despite the recent proliferation of urban warfare training sites, senior Pentagon officials are convinced that these sites are completely inadequate to the task of training US forces to counter future urban insurgencies in fast-growing megacities. As a result, the US Congress commissioned the RAND Corporation, the nation’s long-time military think-tank, to explore other options. The resulting four-hundred-page report was published in 2006.36 The report starts off with the premise that ‘US armed forces have thus far been unable to adequately reproduce the challenges their soldiers, sailors, marines and airmen meet in the towns and cities of Iraq and Afghanistan’.37 First the RAND researchers evaluate the existing urban-warfare training sites in terms of whether they offer the most challenging architectural and infrastructural features encountered when military operations are undertaken within large cities of the global South.
‘The process of urbanization around Israel‘s borders will result in a large Arab population, suffering from poverty and hunger, surrounding the Jewish state’, writes Arnon Soffer, a leading right-wing Israeli geographer who has undertaken many analyses for the IDF. ‘These areas are likely to become fertile ground for the evolvement of radical Islamic movements’.4 LEARNING FROM JENIN Only a few weeks before the launch of Operation Defensive Shield, I attended a conference on ‘urban warfare’ organized by Soffer at Haifa University in Israel, in partnership with the influential RAND Corporation, a major think tank in the United States originally established to undertake military research.5 Populated by senior US Marine Corps, IDF, and British Army commanders and specialists in urban warfare, along with representatives from RAND, the conference was part of an ongoing series which offered the opportunity to exchange practical tips on fighting wars and counterinsurgency operations in cities.
In addition, he continues, ‘Caterpillar D9 armoured bulldozers complete with “mine plows” were employed to clear away fortified buildings, IEDs [Improvised Explosive Devices] and booby trap nests, thus allowing tank-infantry squads to manoeuvre through streets more easily’.7 By learning directly from these new urban wars, the US military has worked hard to improve its ability to pacify and control the cities deemed the main foci of its adversaries. Drawing on conferences like the one in Haifa, Evans notes that ‘significant theoretical analyses were completed by RAND Corporation scholars focusing on the technical and tactical peculiarities involved in conducting military operations inside cities’.8 The US effort to exemplify, and imitate, Israeli experience during Defensive Shield was already underway as the bulldozers clawed through the the Jenin camp. US military ‘observers’ were in fact already on-site, getting a first-hand perspective on Israeli doctrine in action.
Red Moon Rising by Matthew Brzezinski
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Columbine, cuban missile crisis, Kitchen Debate, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, skunkworks, trade route, V2 rocket, Vanguard fund, walking around money, white picket fence
The same 1954 Land report that had urged the creation of the U-2 had also made a recommendation for the development of another type of high-altitude reconnaissance craft, a satellite. The idea, at the time, had been met with skepticism by the National Security Council, owing to its technological complexity, though it was hardly revolutionary. The notion of using the cosmos as a surveillance platform had long stirred the imagination of rocket scientists and spies on both sides of the cold war divide. As early as 1946, a West Coast military think tank, the RAND Corporation, had envisioned successors of von Braun’s V-2 rockets one day carrying cameras beyond the stratosphere. Von Braun himself had made a similar pitch to the army brass in 1954. “Gone was the folksy fellow with rolled-up sleeves and Disneyesque props,” wrote the historian William Burrows of the meeting. “He was replaced by a grim-faced individual with a dark suit who puffed on cigarettes from behind a desk.
Another trade publication, Astronomer’s Circular, advised its readers, “The Astronomical Council of the USSR Academy of Sciences requests all astronomical organizations, all astronomers of the Soviet Union, and all members of the All-Union Astronomical and Geodetic Society to participate actively in preparations for the visual observation of artificial satellites.” The message from Moscow was loud and clear: a Soviet satellite would soon be orbiting the earth, and ordinary citizens would be able to see and hear it. The warning signals did not fall completely on deaf ears in America. The New York Times started researching a story about an impending Soviet launch. The RAND Corporation also carefully clipped all the Soviet press briefs and forwarded them to the Pentagon with an appended note concluding that the Soviets must be serious. But in Washington, no one had time for talk of satellites. The country was in the throes of a looming crisis that had begun with the opening of the school year and was quickly escalating into a major challenge to President Eisenhower’s authority
“Father thirsted for revenge”: Author telephone interview with Sergei Khrushchev, November 27, 2005. 131 “They blamed us”: Richard Nixon, RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon (New York: Grosset and Dunlap, 1978), p. 182. a Ford repair shop at Fifth and K streets: Bissell, Reflections of a Cold Warrior, p. 104. “I don’t ‘believe’ that the Soviets are ahead”: New York Times, February 6, 1957. 132 “Every day we don’t reverse our policy is a bad day for the Free World”: Ibid., August 18, 1957. a West Coast military think tank, the RAND Corporation: Dickson, Sputnik, p. 46. “Gone was the folksy fellow”: Burrows, This New Ocean, p. 145. 133 SR-71 Blackbird: http://www.sr-71.org/blackbird/sr-71/html. Bissell was alarmed that it was not even at the blueprint stage: Bissell, Reflections of a Cold Warrior, p. 134. 134 to personally inspect every Jupiter C launch: Bergaust, Wernher von Braun, p. 243. “I knew our national effort”: Bissell, Reflections of a Cold Warrior, p. 134. 135 “in view of the competition we might face”: http://www.history.nasa.gov/sputnik/chapter2.html.
Liars and Outliers: How Security Holds Society Together by Bruce Schneier
airport security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Brian Krebs, Broken windows theory, carried interest, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, commoditize, corporate governance, crack epidemic, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, desegregation, don't be evil, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Douglas Hofstadter, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, hydraulic fracturing, impulse control, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, iterative process, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Julian Assange, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, Network effects, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, patent troll, phenotype, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Coase, security theater, shareholder value, slashdot, statistical model, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, too big to fail, traffic fines, transaction costs, ultimatum game, UNCLOS, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, Y2K, zero-sum game
There's even evidence that links the number of Facebook friends to the size of certain brain regions. Such social networks are changing the definition of “friend.” How else can you explain that so many of our Facebook pages include people we would never have even considered talking to in high school, and yet we help water their imaginary plants? Chapter 5 (1) The Prisoner's Dilemma was originally framed in the 1950s by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher at the RAND Corporation, and was named several years later by Albert Tucker.Many researchers have informed and analyzed this game, most famously John Nash and then Robert Axelrod, who used it to help explain the evolution of cooperation. (2) I should probably explain about Alice and Bob. Cryptographers—and I started as a cryptographer—name the two actors in any security discussion Alice and Bob. To us, anyone we don't know is either Alice or Bob.
Robson (Spring 2004), “The Origins of Phreaking,” Blacklisted 411, 6:17–23. Criminals can form Allan Castle (1997), “Transnational Organized Crime and International Security,” Institute of International Relations, The University of British Columbia Working Paper No. 19. Phil Williams (2001), “Transnational Criminal Networks,” in John Arquilla and David F. Ronfeldt, eds., Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy, RAND Corporation, 61–97. Oded Löwenheim (2002), “Transnational Criminal Organizations and Security: The Case Against Inflating the Threat,” International Journal, 57:513–36. Criminals were simply Warwick Ashford (6 Oct 2010), “ISSE 2010: Police Are Playing Catch-Up as Criminals Embrace IT,” Computer Weekly. Stephen Pritchard (2 Jun 2011), “Vulnerabilities: Battle Is Joined on Two Fronts,” Financial Times.
The Economist (26 Feb 2009), “Primates on Facebook: Even Online, the Neocortex Is the Limit.” certain brain regions Ryota Kanai, Bahador Bahrami, Rebecca Roylance, and Geraint Rees (2011), “Online Social Network Size Is Reflected in Human Brain Structure,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, published online before print. Chapter 5 Prisoner's Dilemma Merrill M. Flood (1952), “Some Experimental Games,” Research Memorandum RM 789–1, The RAND Corporation. Republished as: Merrill M. Flood (1958), “Some Experimental Games,” Management Science, 5:5–26. Albert W. Tucker (1980), “A Two-Person Dilemma,” UMAP Journal, 1:101–3. Albert W. Tucker (1983), “The Mathematics of Tucker: A Sampler,” The Two-Year College Mathematics Journal, 14:228–32. Many researchers Sylvia Nasar (2001), A Beautiful Mind: The Life of Mathematical Genius and Nobel Laureate John Nash, Simon & Schuster.
23andMe, 3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Anne Wojcicki, Atul Gawande, augmented reality, bioinformatics, call centre, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, conceptual framework, connected car, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, dark matter, data acquisition, disintermediation, don't be evil, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Firefox, global village, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, information asymmetry, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, lifelogging, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, placebo effect, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, Snapchat, social graph, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Turing test, Uber for X, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, X Prize
But getting to efficient use of smartphone lab tests and scans, along with virtual visits, is not a slam-dunk, by any means. The next step we need to get into is how to completely capture and archive all of these data, from womb to tomb. Chapter 7 My Records and Meds “Health information technology (HIT) could save $81–$162 billion or more annually while greatly reducing morbidity and mortality.” —THE RAND CORPORATION, 20051 “We’re creating a revolution. Some people are aghast.” ON GIVING PATIENTS ACCESS TO NOTES BY PHYSICIANS. —TOM DELBANCO, HARVARD2 We’re all dressed up with nowhere to go. We’ve got our labs, real-time wireless sensor data, genomic sequence information, and images. Our ability to generate big medical data about an individual has far outstripped any semblance of managing it, and we can’t even build the full GIS yet.
“Survey: Physicians are Aware That Many Medical Tests and Procedures Are Unnecessary, See Themselves as Solution,” Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, April 2014, http://www.rwjf.org/en/about-rwjf/newsroom/newsroom-content/2014/04/survey--physicians-are-aware-that-many-medical-tests-and-procedu.html. 38. J. Appleby, “Hospitals Promote Screenings That Experts Say Many People Do Not Need,” Washington Post, May 13, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/hospitals-promote-screenings-that-experts-say-most-people-should-not-receive/2013/05/13/aaecb272-9ae2-11e2-9bda-edd1a7fb557d_story.html. 39. S. Garber et al., “Redirecting Innovation in US Health Care,” The RAND Corporation, 2014, http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR308.html. 40. R. Sihvonen et al., “Arthroscopic Partial Meniscectomy versus Sham Surgery for a Degenerative Meniscal Tear,” New England Journal of Medicine 369, no. 26 (2013): 2515–2524. 41. S. Eappen et al., “Relationship Between Occurrence of Surgical Complications and Hospital Finances,” Journal of the American Medical Association 309, no. 15 (2013): 1599–1606. 42.
.), 47–49, 285 The Printing Press as an Agent of Change (Eisenstein), 38–42, 47–49 Privacy concerns, 219–235 Privacy Rights Clearinghouse, 228–229 Project Artemis, 252 Project Masiluleke (South Africa), 261–262 Pronovost, Peter, 186 Prostate cancer screening, 118 Protective alleles, 102 Protein biology, 86 Proteome, 81–82, 86 Proteus, 133–134 Proton beam radiation, 146 Qualcomm, 286 Quality in healthcare, 156–157 QuantuMDs, 264, 265(fig.) Quest Diagnostics, 108 Radiation dosages, 28–29, 113–116, 115(table). See also Imaging; Scans Radiation Right campaign, 116 Ramamurthy, Lakshman, 65–66 RAND Corporation, 125(quote), 130–131 Reconstructive surgery after double mastectomy, 58–59 Records, medical Blue Button Initiative, 129–130 human phenome, 82–83 hype in health information technology, 130–132 OpenNotes project, 127–129 patient access to DNA data, 22 patient ownership, 125–126 See also entries beginning with Data Regulatory procedures, 288–289 Reinhardt, Uwe, 139(quote), 142 Religion, 13–14, 17–18, 50, 52 Relman, Arnold “Bud,” 176 Research, personal, 17 Respect, culture of, 20–21, 27–30 Revolution 2.0 (Ghonim), 13 Revolutions, social networks contributing to, 43–44 Rheumatoid arthritis, 144–145, 204 Rifkin, Jeremy, 49 Risk calculation Global Burden of Disease, 258–261 ionized radiation tests, 113–116 leading causes of disease and risk factors for death and disability, 260(table) predictive analysis, 249–250 TBI and gene variants, 94–95 traditional epidemiology, 70–71 RNA, 86, 98, 255–256 Roche, 215 Rosenberg, Tina, 139(quote) Rosenthal, Elisabeth, 140, 142, 148 Rubenstein, David, 37 Rush, Benjamin, 20 Ruthven, David, 189 Sabar, Ariel, 105(quote) Sage Bionetworks, 199–200 Sayfer, Steven, 190–191 Scans alternatives to radiation, 116 miniaturization of, 118–120 MOOMs, 204–205 patient access to test results, 120–121 portable devices for, 118–120 See also Imaging; Lab tests Schekman, Randy, 209–210 Schwamm, Lee, 167–168 Science, modern, 44–46 Seife, Charles, 71–72 Seigler, Mark, 20 Seinfeld (television program), 4 Semmelweis, Ignaz, 275 Sensor Project, 269 The Shallows (Carr), 40 Sharing Clinical Reports Project, 75 Shenkin, Budd, 127 Shortage of physicians, 173(fig.), 270–271 Side effects of drugs, 100–101 Sidereus Nuncius (Galilei), 44–45 The Signal and the Noise (Silver), 40 The Silent World of Doctor and Patient (Katz), 18–19 Silver, Nate, 40 Simon, Elena, 9, 10(fig.), 212 Siri, 164–165, 244 Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia (Townsend), 223 Smart patients, 8–10 Smartphones attachment scopes, 122 biosensors, 83 boredom and, 48–49 compared to printing press, 40 conducting a full physical exam with, 121–123 data archiving, 48 declining cost of, 273(fig.)
amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, Berlin Wall, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, friendly fire, interchangeable parts, open borders, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, traveling salesman
After being weakened by his partial defeat in the 1991 war, Saddam also had reached out to Sunni tribal leaders. Just as Petraeus would allow former insurgents to keep their arms and patrol their neighborhoods, after the 1991 Gulf War, Saddam had “embraced auxiliary tribalism by allowing sheikhs to create their own private armies equipped with small arms, rocket-propelled grenades, mortars, and allegedly even howitzers,” noted Austin Long, a RAND Corporation expert on counterinsurgency. But, Long noted, the U.S. policy faced an additional difficulty: It was opposed by the Baghdad government, while Saddam’s earlier move had been implemented by Baghdad. Making peace with some of one’s foes made sense when one’s allies were sometimes secret enemies. In January 2007, for example, insurgents assaulted a police station in Karbala where U.S. advisers were based.
The two big American bases just west of downtown Baghdad were called Camp Victory and Camp Liberty. But if they were labeled truthfully, they would have been renamed Camp Accommodation and Camp Stability, as those were the new goals of the American effort. The danger of making policy on the fly and not vetting it through scrutiny and debate is that it may win short-term advances without recognizing long-term costs. As Long, the counterinsurgency expert at the RAND Corporation put it, “The tribal strategy is a means to achieve one strategic end, fighting al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, but it is antithetical to another, the creation of a stable, unified, and democratic Iraq.” It was no coincidence, added Marc Lynch, a Middle Eastern expert at George Washington University, that after the United States began cutting deals with local militias, both the Sunni and Shiite communities began “fragmenting at a remarkable rate.”
Odierno’s relationship with optimism of personality of on rumor of JAM deal shooting of surge and timetables and Petraeus, Holly Petraeus, Sixtus Phillips, Andrews Poirier, David Poland Pomante, Vincent Pool, Jeffrey S. Porter, Patrick Powell, Colin Powell, James Press, Elliott “Producing Victory,” Project for the New American Century Qatar Quayle, Chad Quds Force Raeford Drop Zone Raghavan, Sudarsan Rahman, Abel Rainey, James Ramadi, Iraq RAND Corporation rapid decisive operations Rapp, Bill Rasheed, Mamoun Sami Rayburn, Joel Reagan, Ronald Reconstruction Redacted (film) Reed, Jack Reese, Timothy Reid, Harry Remington, Frederic Republican Guard Republicans “revolt of the generals,” Ribat, Khadem al- Rice, Condoleezza Riggs, John Risha, Sittar albu- Rodriguez, Robert Rohrabacher, Dana Rome Roosevelt, Franklin D. Rose, Michael Rove, Karl Rubaie, Mowaffak al- Rubin, Alissa Rumsfeld, Donald Keane’s meetings with removal of and “revolt of the generals,” as wary of making changes Russia Ryndych, Yevgeniy Sabah, Lt.
Year 501 by Noam Chomsky
anti-communist, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, Bolshevik threat, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, colonial rule, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, European colonialism, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, invisible hand, land reform, land tenure, long peace, mass incarceration, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, non-tariff barriers, offshore financial centre, Plutocrats, plutocrats, price stability, Ralph Nader, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, strikebreaker, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, union organizing, War on Poverty, working poor
At that point, they will enter the agenda, like the ozone layer, which became “important” when it seemed likely to endanger rich white folk. Meanwhile, the experiments will continue in the testing areas. 2. Laboratory Animals The concept “testing area” merits particular notice. Similarly, “American strategists have described the civil war in El Salvador as the ‘ideal testing ground’ for implementing low-intensity conflict doctrine” (a.k.a. international terrorism), a DOD-sponsored RAND Corporation report on the experiment concludes. In earlier days, Vietnam was described as “a going laboratory where we see subversive insurgency...being applied in all its forms” (Maxwell Taylor), providing opportunities for “experiments with population and resource control methods” and “nation building.” The Marine occupation of Haiti was described in similar terms, as we have seen. The technical posturing appears to sustain the self-image, at least.7 One finds no intimation that the experimental subjects might have the right to sign consent forms, or even to know what is happening to them.
Adopting the policies favored by Kennedy doves in later years, its military leadership undertook counterinsurgency campaigns, complete with “collective hamlets,” earnest measures to win hearts and minds, and other ideas that have a certain resonance. Among a series of unpleasant—hence unmentionable—facts is the similarity of these operations to the no less brutal and atrocious ones conducted by the United States a few years later near China’s southern border, operations that peaked in murderous violence shortly after the Japanese documents on Manchuria were released by the RAND Corporation in 1967, to be shelved with appropriate silence by the cultural managers.7 The similarity is not entirely accidental. Apart from the fact that the same thoughts naturally come to the minds of similar actors facing similar circumstances, US counterinsurgency doctrine was consciously modelled on the practices and achievements of World War II fascism, though it was the Nazis who were the preferred model.
., 35–36, 38 Pollin, Robert, 156 Pol Pot, 140, 180, 186–87, 251, 348, 350–51, 369 Pool, Ithiel, 52 Porter, Bernard, vii Portes, Richard, 113 Portugal, 187 in New World Order, 66, 181, 188 Portuguese colonialism, 6–7, 6–9, 11, 19, 180 Posey, Darrell, 162 postcolonialism decolonization period, 54–62 Pozzi, Pablo, 257 Prescott, Paul, 364 Preston, Lewis, 86 prisons, 153–154, 177, 224, 392–93 colonialism and, 16, 27, 272 role in New World Order, 83, 153–54, 168, 238 Puebla Institute, 289 Puerto Rico, 272, 336 Puette, Walter, 385 Putin, Vladimir, xii Qaddafi, Muammar, 29, 164 Rabe, Stephen, 215, 234–35 Rabin, Yitzhak, 53 Rabinowitz, Dorothy, 344 race, 38, 217, 275, 277, 281 in colonialism, ix, 27, 36, 274, 281, 307 See also blackness; Noirisme; whiteness racism, 6, 31–32, 48, 74, 195, 275, 277–78, 281, 292, 307, 396, 398 See also colonialism; imperialism; slavery Ramírez, Ivan, 249 RAND Corporation, 169–70, 308, 331 Reagan, Ronald, xii, 89, 112, 114, 268–69, 350, 372, 382 Cold War policy, 157 economic policy, 54, 68, 70–71, 85, 109, 144, 146, 149–50, 155, 228, 385–87 Grenada policy, 117 Guatemala policy, 238 Haiti policy, 284, 286 Korea policy, 141 Nicaragua policy, 206 South Africa policy, 39 Reding, Andrew, 82 refugees, 33, 346 Cuban refugees, 284 Haitian refugees, 284, 293, 296, 298, 302 Indonesian refugees, 181, 187 Salvadoran refugees, 249 from US slavery, 194 Reston, James, 178–79 Reuter, Edzard, 77–78 Rivera, Brooklyn, 120 Roberts, Brad, 257 Robinson, Anthony, 107–09 Röling, Bert, 327 Romania, 81, 111–12, 141 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 59, 96, 197–98, 277, 328, 339–40 Roosevelt, Theodore, 31, 277 Root, Elihu, 215 Rosenfeld, Stephen, 183–84 Rostow, Walt, 174, 176 Roth, Kenneth, 290, 292 Rubinstein, Danny, 53 Rumsfeld, Donald, x Rusk, Dean, 171–73, 183, 225 Russell, Bertrand, 50 Russia, xii, xiii, 92–94, 127, 332 in post–Cold War era, 77, 81, 108, 111–13, 113–15, 151 See also Soviet Union Ryan, Hewson, 283 Sachs, Jeffrey, 107 Sandel, Michael, 253 Sandinistas, 49, 105, 121–22, 201, 205, 263–67, 300 Sarney, José, 260 Saudi Arabia, 52, 56, 235 Savimbi, Jonas, 129 Scanlan, Christopher, 245 Schlesinger, Arthur, xi, 38, 200 Schmidt, Hans, 274, 276–77, 280–81, 303 Schoultz, Lars, 42, 166 Schweid, Barry, 148 Scott, Peter Dale, 171 Seabrook, Jeremy, 237 Serrano, Jorge, 240–41 sexism, 74, 398 Sexton, Patricia, 389, 396 sexual violence, 227, 239, 243 forced sterilization, 277–78 Shamir, Yitzhak, 53 Shawcross, William, 186–87 Shenon, Philip, 180, 333 Sheppar, Nathaniel, 118 Shlaudeman, Harry, 119 Shorrock, Tim, 140 Shultz, George, 141, 286 Sihanouk Norodom, 350–51 Simes, Dimitri, 123, 125 Simpson, John, 257 Singapore, 83–84, 257, 350 Sioux, 32, 363 Skidmore, Thomas, 225–227, 229–30 slavery, x, 43–44, 311–12, 319 in Bolivia, 195 in Brazil, 231–32 in Cuba, 196–97 global slave trade, 6–7, 9, 19, 28–29 in Haiti, 271, 275–76 in India, 241 in US, 33, 36–37, 193–94, 361 Slim, T-Bone, 380 Sloan, Alfred, 309 Smith, Adam, viii, 318 on colonialism, 4–5, 9–11, 20–22, 379 on economics, 13–17, 24–25, 390 legacy of, 77, 79 Smith, Joseph, 214 Smith, Stephen, 143 Smith, Wayne, 203 Smucker, Philip, 354 Somoza García, Anastasio, 140, 263, 265–66, 299 South Africa, 4, 134, 320, 386 actions in Angola, 39, 100, 129–30, 206–07 South Commission, 61 South Korea, 13, 55, 358 in New World Order, 84, 140–42, 145, 256 South-North Human Genome Conference, 159 Soviet Union, 73, 150, 169, 185–86, 220, 325, 360 in Cold War, xii, 62–66, 96–107, 129–30, 157, 167, 199, 210 collapse of, 72, 77, 84, 122–23, 125, 127, 131, 157, 251–52, 395 dissidents, 43 role in Third World, 60, 93–94, 123 See also Cuban missile crisis; Russia Spaatz, Carl Andrew, 326 Spain, 13, 101, 337 Spanish colonialism, 6–7, 9–10, 17, 29, 42–44, 195, 196, 271, 273–274 Stackhouse, John, 353–54 Stavrianos, Leften, 92 Stein, Herbert, 157, 410n15 Stephens, Uriah, 319 Stevens, John, 336 Stewart, Allan, 234–35 Stigler, George, 14, 22 Stimson, Henry, 58, 97 Stivers, William, 279 Story, Joseph, viii Strange, Susan, 70 Strauss, Robert, 115 structural adjustment policies, 4, 85–87, 117, 134, 149, 209, 224, 235–37, 249, 269, 273, 354 Sued-Badillo, Jalil, 272, 420n49 Suharto, 170, 174, 176, 178, 180–81, 185–87, 190, 209, 253 Sukarno, 168–69, 168–70, 173–75, 178, 184 Summers, Lawrence, 151–52 Suskind, Ron, 117 Sweden, 86, 94 Swift, Jonathan, 357 Switzerland, 211, 275 Taft, William Howard, 217 Taiwan, 83, 257, 285 Taylor, Humphrey, 383 Taylor, Lance, 147 Taylor, Maxwell, 165, 421n62 Thailand, 187, 231, 241–42, 349–50 Thatcher, Margaret, 76–77 Thomasson, Gordon, 305–07 Thompson, Edward, 15 Thompson, E.P., 382 Thompson, John, 105 Tibbets, Paul, 327 Tibet, 331 Times Literary Supplement, vii Timor, 140, 180–81, 185–90, 349, 369 Togo, 86 Tojo, Hideki, 340 Torricelli, Robert, 296 Toussaint L’Ouverture, François-Dominique, 271–72, 279, 302 Tracy, James, 10–11 transnational corporations (TNCs), 62, 144, 150, 162, 164, 181 in New World Order, 70, 83–84, 88, 132–33, 146 Tran Viet Cuong, 353 Trevelyan, Charles, 16 Trilateral Commission, 52, 367 Trinidad-Tobago, 86 Trotsky, Leon, 95 Trouillot, Michel-Rolph, 281 Truman, Harry, 47, 63, 96, 99, 218, 221, 328, 405n16 Turkey, 13, 48, 52, 150, 203, 229 Twain, Mark, 43, 202, 253 Tyler, John, 35, 334–36 Tyler, Patrick, 67–68, 347 Ubico, Jorge, 239 Uchitelle, Louis, 157 Ukraine, 114 UN Committee of Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, 118 UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 73, 85 Underhill, John, 30 UN Economic Commission for Africa, 76 UN Economic Commission for Europe, 112 UNESCO, 73, 231 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 231 UN High Commission on Refugees (UNCHR), 298 UN Human Development Program, 85 United Arab Emirates, 148–149 United Nations (UN), 100, 127–28, 243, 352 US role in, 73, 100, 185–87, 211, 350 universities, 73–75, 169, 175 under neoliberalism, 74–75 UN Report on Human Development, 231 UN Security Council, 73, 127, 350 UN World Economic Survey, 269 Uruguay, 244 USAID, 117, 119, 248, 284, 290, 305, 307 US International Trade Commission, 162 US-Japan semiconductor agreement, 132 Vandenberg, Arthur, 101 Venezuela, 134, 139, 214, 233–37 Vickery, Michael, 241–42, 369–70 Vidal, Gore, 74 Vietnam, 308, 330 French policy toward, 95 invasion of Cambodia, 349–51, 369 in New World Order, 345–58, 369–71 Phoenix program, 182 US policy toward, 39–40, 65, 242, 279 Vietnam war, 70, 165, 174–78, 184, 235, 332–34, 344, 355–59, 369–77, 398 critics of, 165–66, 339, 380 MIAs, 365–68 My Lai massacre, 357–60, 363 Vieux, Steve, 261, 268 Voluntary Export Arrangements, 132 Vries, David de, 362 Wain, Barry, 181 Wall Street Journal, 68, 82, 117, 134, 154–55, 158, 181, 214, 296, 338, 386 Walters, Vernon, 224 War of 1812, 33, 366 Warsaw Pact, 63, 104 Washington, George, 30, 193, 315 Washington Post, 41, 98, 183, 211, 213, 250, 297, 326, 334, 358, 371 Watanabe, Michio, 326, 328 Watergate, 29 Watkins, Kevin, 162–63 Webster, Daniel, 33 Weisman, Steven, 326, 328, 338–44 Welles, Sumner, 197–98 Whipple, H.B., 43 whiteness, 10, 48, 308 in colonialism, 37, 130, 195, 197, 274, 317, 335 honorary whiteness, 4 in transnational adoption, 110 See also race Whitman, Walt, 36 Whitney, Craig, 359 Wilensky, Gail, 320 Wilentz, Amy, 285, 290, 304 Williams, Roger, 30 Wilson, Horace, 18 Wilson, Woodrow, 95, 104, 217, 252–53, 276, 277–79, 307, 394, 396 Wimer, Javier, 118 Wines, Michael, 183 Wintle, Justin, 358 Wohlstetter, Albert, 166 Wolfowitz, Paul, 68 women targets of advertising, 80, 314 targets of environmental toxins, 356 targets of violence, 28, 31, 265, 361 women’s equality, 382 women’s political groups, 182 women’s work, 306 See also sexism Wood, Leonard, 211 Woodward, Robert, 59 World Bank, 82–83, 103, 107–08, 149–52, 195, 228, 248, 284–85, 288 role in New World Order, 85–86, 115, 143, 176, 226, 254, 370 World Court, 29, 128, 188, 211, 349 World Health Organization, 208, 240, 245, 307 World War I, 54, 98, 215, 394 World War II, 34, 45, 58–59, 102, 188, 221, 234, 245, 331 aftermath of, 42, 69, 94, 142–43, 146, 156–57, 215–17, 303, 365 economic impact of, 54 Pearl harbor bombing, 326 Tokyo Tribunal, 327 See also Nuremberg Tribunal Wortzel, Lawrence, 308 Wouk, Walter, 365 Wrong, Dennis, 257 464 Yamashita Tomoyuki, 328, 360 Yarbro, Stan, 237 Yugoslavia, 81 Zaire.
The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley
affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, altcoin, anthropic principle, anti-communist, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Columbian Exchange, computer age, Corn Laws, cosmological constant, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, endogenous growth, epigenetics, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, falling living standards, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, George Santayana, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, hydraulic fracturing, imperial preference, income per capita, indoor plumbing, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, land reform, Lao Tzu, long peace, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, Necker cube, obamacare, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, price mechanism, profit motive, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, smart contracts, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, women in the workforce
The most influential disciple was General William Draper, whose commission on foreign aid reported to President Eisenhower in 1959 that aid should be tied explicitly to birth control, in order to decrease the supply of recruits to communism. Eisenhower did not buy this, and nor did his Catholic successor John F. Kennedy. But Draper did not give up. His Population Crisis Committee gradually won over many of the most influential people in American public life to the thesis that coercive population control was essential to defeating communism. Eventually, with the help of a RAND Corporation study which argued (using an absurd 15 per cent discount rate) that children had negative economic value, Draper and his allies won Lyndon Johnson’s endorsement in 1966, and population control became an official part of American foreign aid. Under its ruthless director Reimert Ravenholt, the Office of Population grew its budget till it was larger than that of the rest of the entire US aid budget.
There is a long and sterile argument to be had about who deserves credit for inventing the internet – government or private industry. Barack Obama is in no doubt that, as he put it in a speech in 2012, ‘The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet.’ He was referring to the fact that the decentralised network we know today began life as the Arpanet, a project funded by the Pentagon, and that relied on an idea called packet switching, dreamt up by Paul Baran at the RAND Corporation, whose motive was chiefly to make something that could survive a Soviet first strike and still transmit messages to missile bases to retaliate. Hence the decentralised nature of the network. That’s nonsense, say others. The internet is more than package-switching. It requires computers, communications, all sorts of software and other protocols, many of which the government-funded research projects would have bought from private enterprise.
(with Paul Paddock) 207 Page, Larry 188 Pagel, Mark 80, 81–2 Pakistan 32, 206 Paley, William 38–9, 41–2, 51 Panama 286 Paris 102, 121, 254 Park, Walter 139 Parris, Matthew 303 Parys Mine Company, Anglesey 278 Pascal, Blaise 273 Paul, Senator Rand 241 Paul, Ron 114, 285, 292, 295 Paul, St (Saul of Tarsus) 8, 258, 264 Pauling, Linus 121 Pax Romana 239 Peace High School, Hyderabad (India) 181 Peel, Robert 246, 283–4 Peer-to-Peer Foundation 308 Peninsular War 280 People’s Printing Press 288 personality: and the blank slate 156–7, 158–9; and genes 159, 160–2; and homicide 169–71; innateness of behaviour 157–8; intelligence from within 165–7; non-genetic differences 162–5; and parenting 159–60, 161–2; and sexual attraction 172–3; and sexuality 167–9 Peterloo massacre (1819) 245 Pfister, Christian 276 Philippe, duc d’Orléans 286 Philippines 190 Philips, Emo 140 Philostratus 258 Phoenicia 101 Pinker, Steven 28, 30, 31–3, 172–3; The Better Angels of Our Nature 28–9 Pinnacle Technologies 136 Pitt-Rivers, Augustus 127 Pixar 124 Planned Parenthood Foundation 204 Plath, Robert 126 Plato 7, 11 Plomin, Robert 165, 167 Poincaré, Henri 18, 121 Polanyi, Karl 133 Polanyi, Michael 253 politics 314–16 Poor Law (1834) 195 Pope, Alexander 15 Popper, Karl 253; ‘Conjectures and Refutations’ 269 Population: American eugenics 200–3; control and sterilisation 205–8; and eugenics 197–9; impact of Green Revolution 208–10; Irish application of Malthusian doctrines 195–7; Malthusian theory 193, 194–5; and one-child policy 210–14; post-war eugenics 203–5 Population Crisis Committee 206 Portugal, Portuguese 134 Pottinger, Sir Harry 233 ‘Primer for Development’ (UN, 1951) 232 Prince, Thomas 242 Pritchett, Lant 179–80; The Rebirth of Education 176 Procter & Gamble 130 Proudhon, Pierre-Joseph 194–5 Prussia 176 Psychological Review 159 Putin, Vladimir 305 ‘The Puzzle of Monogamous Marriage’ (Henrich, Boyd & Richerson) 89 Pythagoras 85 Pythagorism 259 Qian XingZhong 213 Quesnay, François 98 Raines, Franklin 292 Ramsay, John 25 RAND Corporation 206, 300 Ravenholt, Reimert 206 Ray Smith, Alvy 124 Reagan, Ronald 254, 290 Red Sea 82 Reed, Leonard 43 Reformation 216, 220 religion: and climate change/global warming 271–6; and cult of cereology (crop circles) 264–6; existence of God 14–15; heretics and heresies 141–2; as human impulse 256–8; predictability of gods 259–60; and the prophet 260–3; temptations of superstition 266–8; variety of beliefs 257–8; vital delusions 268–71 Renaissance 220 Ricardo, David 104–5, 106, 246 Richardson, Samuel 88 Richerson, Pete 78, 89 Ridley, Matt, The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves 110–11, 126–7 Rio de Janeiro 92 Roberts, Russ 4 Robinson, James 97–8 Rockefeller Foundation 229, 230–1 Rodriguez, Joã 47–8 Rodrik, Dani 228 Rome 257, 259, 260 Romer, Paul 109 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano 251 Roosevelt, Theodore 197 Rothbard, Murray 243 Rousseau, Jean-Jacques 165, 216 Rowling, J.K. 122 Royal Bank 281 Royal Mint 278, 279 Royal Navy 297 Royal United Services Institution 198 Rudin, Ernst 202 Rufer, Chris 226 Runciman, Garry, Very Different, But Much the Same 94 Rusk, Dean 206–7 Russell, Lord John 195 Russia 119, 204, 227–8, 250, 303 Russian Revolution 318 Sadow, Bernard 126 Safaricom 296 St Louis (ship) 202–3 St Maaz School, Hyderabad (India) 181 Salk Institute, California 67 San Marco, Venice 53 Sandia National Laboratory 136 Sanger, Margaret 201, 204 Santa Fe Institute 93, 126 Santayana, George 10 Sapienza, Carmen 67 Satoshi Nakamoto 307–8, 309–10, 312 Schiller, Friedrich 248 Schmidt, Albrecht 222 Schumpeter, Joseph 106, 128, 251; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy 106–7; Theory of Economic Development 106 science: as driver of innovation 133–7; as private good 137–9; pseudo-science 269 Science (journal) 70 Scientology 263 Scopes, John 49 Scotland 17, 280–2, 286 Scott, Sir Peter 211 Scott, Sir Walter (‘Malachi Malagrowther’) 283 Second International Congress of Eugenics 200 Second World War 105, 138, 203, 231, 252, 254, 318 Self-Management Institute 226 Selgin, George 297; Good Money 279, 280 Shade, John 188 Shakespeare, William 15, 131, 216, 224 Shanker, Albert 180 Shaw, George Bernard 197 Shaw, Marilyn 155–6 Shelley, Mary, Frankenstein 16 Shelley, Percy 16 Shockley, William 119 Shogun Japanese 130 Sierra Club 204 Silk Road 311–12 Silvester, David 274 Simon, Julian 209 Singapore 190 Sistine Chapel, Rome 256 Skarbek, David, The Social Order of the Underworld 237–8 Skinner, B.F. 156, 267–8 Skirving, William 244 skyhooks 7, 13, 14, 18, 65, 67, 71, 150, 267 Slumdog Millionaire (film, 2008) 185 Smith, Adam 3, 20, 21, 22–7, 28, 33, 110, 112, 117, 234, 243, 244, 246, 249; The Theory of Moral Sentiments 23–4, 27, 28, 37–8, 98; The Wealth of Nations 24, 38, 98–100, 103–4, 137 Smith, John Maynard 53 Smith, Joseph 263, 264, 266 Smithism 110 Snowden, Edward 303 SOLE (self-organised learning environment) 186 Solow, Robert 108, 137 Somalia 32 Song, Chinese dynasty 101 Song Jian 210–11, 212–13 South America 247 South Korea 125, 190, 229 South Sea Bubble (1720) 285, 294 South Sudan 32 Soviet-Harvard illusion 3 Soviet Union 114, 122 Spain 101, 247 Sparkes, Matthew 313 Sparta 101 Spencer, Herbert 216–17, 249, 253 Spenser, Edmund 15 Spinoza, Baruch 20, 141–2, 148, 268; Ethics 142; l’Esprit des lois 142–3 Sputnik 138 Stalin, Joseph 250, 252, 253 Stalling, A.E. 10 Stanford University 184, 185 Stealth bomber 130 Steiner, George, Nostalgia for the Absolute 266 Steiner, Rudolf 271 Steinsberger, Nick 136 Stephenson, George 119 Stewart, Dugald 38, 244 Stiglitz, Joseph 292 Stockman, David 288, 289–90; The Great Deformation 294 stoicism 259 Stop Online Piracy Act (US, 2011) 304 Strawson, Galen 140 Stuart, Charles Edward ‘The Young Pretender’ 282 Stuart, James Edward ‘The Old Pretender’ 281 Sudan 32 Summers, Larry 110 Sunnis 262 Suomi, Stephen 161 Sveikauskas, Leo 139 Swan, Joseph 119 Sweden 101, 284 Switzerland 32, 190, 247, 254 Sybaris 93 Syria 32 Szabo, Nick 307, 310; ‘Shelling Out: The Origins of Money’ 307 Tabarrok, Alex 132; Launching the Innovation Renaissance 132 Taiwan 190 Tajikistan 305 Taleb, Nassim 3, 92, 107, 135, 285, 312 Tamerlane the Great 87 Taoism 259, 260 Taylor, Winslow 250 Taylorism 250, 251 Tea Act (UK, 1773) 282n Tea Party 246 technology: biological similarities 126–31; boat analogy 128; computers 123–5, 126; copying 132–3; electric light 1–2; and fracking 136; inexorable progress 122–6, 130–1; innovation as emergent phenomenon 139; and the internet 299–316; light bulbs 118–19, 120; many-to-many 300; mass-communication 200; open innovation 130; patents/copyright laws 131–2; and printing 220; and science 133–9; simultaneous discovery 120–2; skunk works 130; software 131 TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) lecture 177 Thatcher, Margaret 217 Third International Congress of Eugenics 201–2, 204 Third World 231–2 Thrun, Sebastian 185 Time (magazine) 241 The Times 308 Togo 94 Tokyo 92 Tolstoy, Leo 217 Tooby, John 43 Tooley, James 181–4 Toy Story (film, 1995) 124 Trevelyan, Charles 195 Tuchman, Barbara, A Distant Mirror 29 Tucker, William 90; Marriage and Civilization 89 Tullock, Gordon 35 Turner, Ted 213 Twister (messaging system) 313 Twitter 310, 313 U-2 reconnaissance plane 130 Uber 109 UK Meteorological Office 275 UN Codex Alimentarius 254 UN Family Planning Agency 213 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 254–5 UN General Assembly 305 UNESCO 205 Union Bank of Scotland 281 United Nations 131, 213, 232, 305 United States 34, 122, 125, 138, 139, 176, 200–2, 232, 235–8, 245, 247, 250, 254, 284–5, 286, 302 United States Supreme Court 50 universe: anthropic principle 18–20; designed and planned 7–10; deterministic view 17–18; Lucretian heresy 10–12; Newton’s nudge 12–13; swerve 14–15 University of Czernowitz 106 University of Houston 71 University of Pennsylvania 133 UNIX 302 Urbain Le Verrier 120–1 US Bureau of Land Management 240 US Department of Education 240 US Department of Homeland Security 240, 241 US Federal Reserve 285, 286, 288, 293, 297, 309 US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission 294 US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 240 US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration 240 US Office of Management and Budget 290 Utah 89 Uzbekistan 305 Vancouver 92 Vanuatu 81 Vardanes, King 258 Veblen, Thorstein 249 Verdi, Giuseppe: Aida 248; Rigoletto 248 Veronica (search engine) 120 Versailles Treaty (1919) 318 Victoria, Queen 89 Virgil (Publius Vergilius Maro) 10, 23 vitalism 270–1 Vodafone 296 Vogt, William 205, 209; Road to Survival 204 Voltaire, François-Marie Arouet 14, 15, 20, 22, 25, 41, 143, 243, 268; Candide 15 Volvo 101 Wagner, Andreas 47 Wall Street Journal 125, 132 Wallace, Alfred Russell 20, 54–5, 196 Wallison, Peter 294 Walras, Léon 106 Waltham, David, Lucky Planet 19 Walwyn, Thomas 242 Wang Mang, Emperor 267 Wang Zhen 212 Wannsee conference 198 Wapinski, Norm 136 Washington, George 220, 222, 240 Washington Post 241 Watson, James 121, 145 Webb, Beatrice 197 Webb, Richard 5, 319 Webb, Sidney 197 Webcrawler 120 Wedgwood family 38 Wedgwood, Josiah 199 Weismann, August 55 Wells, H.G. 197, 251 West, Edwin 178; Education and the State 177 West, Geoffrey 93 West Indies 134, 286 Whitney, Eli 128 Whittle, Frank 119 Whole Foods 227 Wikipedia 188, 304–5 Wilby, Peter 315 Wilhelm II, Kaiser 198, 247 Wilkins, Maurice 121 Wilkinson, John 278–9 Willeys 278–9, 280 Williams, Thomas 278 Williamson, Kevin 33; The End is Near and it’s Going to be Awesome 238–9 Wilson, Catherine 12 Wilson, Margo 171 Wolf, Alison, Does Education Matter?
Radical Technologies: The Design of Everyday Life by Adam Greenfield
3D printing, Airbnb, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, bank run, barriers to entry, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, business intelligence, business process, call centre, cellular automata, centralized clearinghouse, centre right, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, cloud computing, collective bargaining, combinatorial explosion, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, Conway's Game of Life, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, dematerialisation, digital map, distributed ledger, drone strike, Elon Musk, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, fiat currency, global supply chain, global village, Google Glasses, IBM and the Holocaust, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Conway, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late capitalism, license plate recognition, lifelogging, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, megacity, megastructure, minimum viable product, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, natural language processing, Network effects, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, Pearl River Delta, performance metric, Peter Eisenman, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, post scarcity, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, RFID, rolodex, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, sorting algorithm, special economic zone, speech recognition, stakhanovite, statistical model, stem cell, technoutopianism, Tesla Model S, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, transaction costs, Uber for X, universal basic income, urban planning, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce
In urban planning, the idea that certain kinds of challenges are susceptible to algorithmic resolution has a long pedigree. It’s present in the Corbusian doctrine that the ideal and correct ratio of spatial provisioning in a city can be calculated from nothing more than an enumeration of the population, it underpins the complex composite indices Jay Forrester devised in his groundbreaking 1969 Urban Dynamics, and it lay at the heart of the RAND Corporation’s (eventually disastrous) intervention in the management of 1970s New York City.40 No doubt part of the idea’s appeal to smart-city advocates, too, is the familial resemblance such an algorithm would bear to the formulae by which commercial real-estate developers calculate air rights, the land area that must be reserved for parking in a community of a given size, and so on. These are tools developers already know how to use, and in the right context and at the appropriate scale, they are surely helpful.
“Economic and Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes, 2010 (Revised),” May 2015, crashstats. nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812013. 11.Lt. Col. Dave Grossman, On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill In War and Society, London: Little, Brown, 1995. 12.The reality of the US remote assassination program is comprehensively detailed in the Intercept, “The Drone Papers,” October 15, 2015, theintercept.com. 13.Daniel Gonzales and Sarah Harting, “Designing Unmanned Systems With Greater Autonomy,” Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2014. For a poignant, if chilling, depiction of an autonomous combat system nearing the threshold of self-awareness, see Peter Watts, “Malak,” rifters.com, 2010. 14.American Civil Liberties Union, “War Comes Home: The Excessive Militarization of American Policing,” June 2014, aclu.org; see also Daniel H. Else, “The ‘1033 Program,’ Department of Defense Support to Law Enforcement,” Congressional Research Service, August 28, 2014, fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R43701.pdf. 15.Alex Williams and Nick Srnicek, “#ACCELERATE MANIFESTO for an Accelerationist Politics,” Critical Legal Thinking, May 14, 2013; Novara Media, “Fully Automated Luxury Communism,” podcast, June 2015, novaramedia.com/2015/06/fully-automated-luxury-communism/. 16.Shulamith Firestone, The Dialectic of Sex, New York: Bantam Books, 1971. 17.Valerie Solanas, SCUM Manifesto, New York: Olympia Press, 1968. 18.Quoctrung Bui, “Map: The Most Common* Job In Every State,” National Public Radio, February 5, 2015, npr.org. 19.Elon Musk, “Master Plan, Part Deux,” July 20, 2016, tesla.com. 20.See the site of Amazon’s fully owned robotics subsidiary at amazonrobotics.com, and the video of one of its warehouses in operation at youtube.com/watch?
., 195 Ostrom, Elinor, 171 output neuron, 215 overtransparency, 240–1, 243 Pai, Sidhant, 98 Pandora music service, 220 Panmunjom Truce Village, 65 Pareto optimality, 55, 59 Paris, 1–6, 292 Pasquale, Frank, 244, 253 path dependence, 232, 299 PayPal, 120, 136, 220 PCWorld, 45 People Analytics, 198, 226, 232 perceptron, 214 Père Lachaise cemetery, 2, 5, 26 persoonskaart, Dutch identity card, 60 Pew Research Center, 41, 193 Pinellas County, Florida, 256 Placemeter, 51 polylactic acid plastic filament (PLA), 94, 98, 101 Pokémon Go, 63–5, 76, 79 Polari, 311 policy network, 264 Pollock, Jackson, 261 Pony Express, 256 porosity, 28, 173 POSIWID, 155, 302 Postcapitalism (Paul Mason), 88 power/knowledge, 62 predictive policing, 227, 230, 232, 235 PredPol, 229, 231, 236, 244, 254 proof-of-work, 128–30, 140–1, 143, 290 prosopagnosia. See faceblindness Protoprint, 99–100, 102 provisioning of mobile phone service, 17, 56 Průša, Josef, 105 psychogeography, 40, 51 Quantified Self movement, 33–6, 40 Radical Networks conference, 314 radio frequency identification (RFID), 200, 296 Radiohead, 35 RAND Corporation, 56–8 RATP, 5 recall, 217, 234–5 redboxing, 229–30 regtech, 157 Reich, Robert, 196 Relentless (AN and Omerod), 265 Rensi, Ed, 195 RepRap 3D printer, 86–7, 93, 104–5, 306 RER, 2, 5 Richelieu, Cardinal, 62 Rifkin, Jeremy, 88, 205, 312 RiteAid, 197 Riverton, Wyoming, 63 Royal Dutch Shell Long-Term Studies Group, 287 Samsung, 285–6 Sandvig, Christian, 252 “Satoshi Nakamoto,” 115, 118, 147, 303 scenario planning, 287 Schneier, Bruce, 45, 243 Scott, James C., 311 SCUM Manifesto (Valerie Solanas), 191 Seoul, 6, 18, 54, 264–5, 284 Metro, 54 Sennett, Richard, 111 sentiment analysis, 198 Serra, Richard, 70 SHA–256 hashing algorithm, 123 Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, 18–19, 43 Shodan search engine, 43 Shoreditch, London neighborhood, 136 Shteyngart, Gary, 246 Sidewalk Labs.
23andMe, 3D printing, active measures, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, airport security, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bill Joy: nanobots, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, borderless world, Brian Krebs, business process, butterfly effect, call centre, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data acquisition, data is the new oil, Dean Kamen, disintermediation, don't be evil, double helix, Downton Abbey, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Flash crash, future of work, game design, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Gordon Gekko, high net worth, High speed trading, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, hypertext link, illegal immigration, impulse control, industrial robot, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Harrison: Longitude, John Markoff, Jony Ive, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kuwabatake Sanjuro: assassination market, Law of Accelerating Returns, Lean Startup, license plate recognition, lifelogging, litecoin, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Metcalfe’s law, mobile money, more computing power than Apollo, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, national security letter, natural language processing, obamacare, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, off grid, offshore financial centre, optical character recognition, Parag Khanna, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, personalized medicine, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, pre–internet, RAND corporation, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, refrigerator car, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, security theater, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, Stuxnet, supply-chain management, technological singularity, telepresence, telepresence robot, Tesla Model S, The Future of Employment, The Wisdom of Crowds, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, uranium enrichment, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Wave and Pay, We are Anonymous. We are Legion, web application, Westphalian system, WikiLeaks, Y Combinator, zero day
As if the threat from individual hackers’ stealing credit cards and Mafia thugs’ breaking kneecaps weren’t bad enough, today traditional organized crime groups and highly talented hackers have united to combine forces, and the results for the general public and business are disastrous. While historically perhaps 80 percent of hackers were independent freelancers, today the opposite is true. According to a 2014 study by the Rand Corporation, a full 80 percent of hackers are now working with or as part of an organized crime group. The Rand findings remind me of the great scene from the 1980s film Ghostbusters in which Bill Murray, Harold Ramis, and Dan Aykroyd have armed themselves with “proton pack” weapons to defeat the ghosts who have invaded New York City. At one point in the film, Ramis advises his two co-stars, “There’s something very important I forgot to tell you … Don’t cross the streams of your weapons … It would be bad.”
They were able to marshal evidence by channeling time and energy to decipher data to produce results faster than any policing or governmental organization could have done alone. Crowdsourcing public safety delivers clear results and must become an integral component of our global security strategy in an exponentially changing world, especially one so short on full-time cyber-security personnel. The Rand Corporation has noted that the nationwide shortage of technical security professionals within the federal government is so critical that it is putting both our national and our homeland security at risk. The finding was echoed by Cisco’s 2014 Annual Security Report, which estimated that there was a talent scarcity of more than a million cyber-security professionals worldwide, expected to grow to two million by 2017.
,” Guardian, Sept. 21, 2011; Misha Glenny, “Inside the World of Cybercrime, EIBF 2012, Review,” EdinburghGuide.com, Aug. 20, 2012; Felix Richter, “Twitter’s Ad Revenue Tipped to Double This Year,” Statista, Sept. 13, 2012; David Talbot, “The Perfect Scam,” Technology Review, June 21, 2011. 2 Crime is big business: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes, “Estimating Illicit Financial Flows Resulting from Drug Trafficking and Other Transnational Organized Crimes,” Oct. 2011, 7. 3 In total: Misha Glenny, McMafia: A Journey Through the Global Criminal Underworld (New York: Vintage Books, 2009), 12. 4 Capos, dons: Allison Davis, Patrick Di Justo, and Adam Rogers, “Crime, Organized,” Wired, Feb. 2011, 78; General OneFile, Web, May 22, 2014. 5 Hacking is no longer ruled: “Organised Crime in the Digital Age,” a joint study of Detica/BAE Systems and the John Grieve Centre for Policing at London Metropolitan University, March 2012. 6 According to a 2014 study: Lillian Ablon, Martin C. Libicki, and Andrea A. Golay, “Markets for Cybercrime Tools and Stolen Data,” Rand Corporation, 4. 7 Several executives were kidnapped: Byron Acohido, “How Kidnappers, Assassins Utilize Smartphones, Google, and Facebook,” USAToday.com, Feb. 18, 2011. 8 Sensing a market need: “Woman ‘Ran Text-a-Getaway’ Service,” BBC News, July 16, 2013. 9 In San Francisco: This was based on the author’s personal observations, and I have a photograph of the incident. 10 “It’s more discreet”: Dana Sauchelli and Bruce Golding, “Hookers Turning Airbnb Apartments into Brothels,” New York Post, April 14, 2014. 11 While organized crime groups: The information on the organization of modern cybercrime organizations came from a variety of sources, including personal experience and investigation, consultation with senior law enforcement officials working in the field of cyber crime, and online resources such as “Cybercriminals Today Mirror Legitimate Business Processes,” Fortinet 2013 Cybercrime Report; Trend Micro Threat Research, “A Cybercrime Hub,” Aug. 2009; Information Warfare Monitor and Shadowserver Foundation, Shadows in the Cloud, Joint Report, April 6, 2010; Patrick Thibodeau, “FBI Lists Top 10 Posts in Cybercriminal Operations,” Computerworld, March 23, 2010; Roderic Broadhurst et al., “Organizations and Cybercrime,” International Journal of Cyber Criminology, Oct. 11, 2013. 12 Active criminal affiliates: Dmitry Samosseiko, “The Partnerka” (paper presented at Virus Bulletin Conference, Sept. 2009); “The Business of Cybercrime,” Trend Micro White Paper, Jan. 2010. 13 In other words: Cisco, Cisco 2010 Annual Security Report, 9. 14 Actors in these online crime swarms: Broadhurst et al., “Organizations and Cybercrime.” 15 As noted previously: Dunn, “Global Cybercrime Dominated by 50 Core Groups.” 16 Some Crime, Inc. organizations: See Brian Krebs, “ ‘Citadel’ Trojan Touts Trouble-Ticket System,” Krebs on Security, Jan. 23, 2012. 17 One group of cyber thieves: Bob Sullivan, “160 Million Credit Cards Later, ‘Cutting Edge’ Hacking Ring Cracked,” NBC News, July 25, 2013; “Team of International Criminals Charged with Multi-million Dollar Hacking Ring,” NBC News, July 25, 2013. 18 Some digital criminal marketplaces: Thomas Holt, “Exploring the Social Organisation and Structure of Stolen Data Markets,” Global Crime 14, nos. 2–3 (2013); Thomas Holt, “Honor Among (Credit Card) Thieves?
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq by Peter R. Mansoor, Donald Kagan, Frederick Kagan
Berlin Wall, central bank independence, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, friendly fire, HESCO bastion, indoor plumbing, land reform, open borders, RAND corporation, Saturday Night Live, zero-sum game
Agency for International Development made it abundantly clear that a lack of coordination prevailed among interested parties in Baghdad. This was largely a function of the failure to plan eﬀectively for “Phase IV” operations, or those that would take place once regime change occurred. The inadequacy of planning for stabilization and reconstruction activities following the cessation of major combat operations is now well understood. A study by the RAND Corporation concludes, No planning was undertaken to provide for the security of the Iraqi people in the post conﬂict environment, given the expectations that the Iraqi government would remain largely intact; the Iraqi people would welcome the American presence; and local militia, police, and the regular army would be capable of providing law and order. By not including civil police in its nation-building 26 Baghdad operations, the burden for handling public security in Iraq fell upon coalition military forces, which were ill-prepared.
It’s 116 degrees here today, and I don’t even get a cold beer—GO #1 strikes again. So yet another go-round with the extended Betty Ford clinic. At least I’m drawing combat pay. I have a spare cot for you if you make it to Baghdad. My HQ is in the Martyr’s Monument east of the Tigris River. Alcohol not allowed, but bring cigars. Otherwise, enjoy the summer and drink a cold one for me. Ready First! Pete This page intentionally left blank Notes 1. Baghdad 1. RAND Corporation, “Iraq: Translating Lessons into Future DoD Policies,” Washington, D.C., February 7, 2005. 2. Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq’s Green Zone (New York: Knopf, 2006). 3. George Packer, The Assassin’s Gate (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005), 181. 4. Samuel R. Berger, Brent Scowcroft, William L. Nash, et al., In the Wake of War: Improving U.S. Post-Conﬂict Capabilities (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2005), 4. 5.
As we now know, Saddam Hussein ordered the destruction of Iraq’s stockpiles of chemical weapons during the 1990s, well before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Kevin M. Woods, Michael R. Pease, Mark E. Stout, Williamson Murray, and James G. Lacey, Iraqi Perspectives Project: A View of Operation Iraqi Freedom from Saddam’s Senior Leadership (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Defense Analysis, 2006), 91–95. 2. Rusafa 1. Bruce Hoﬀman, “Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq,” Washington, D.C., RAND Corporation, June 2004; Kalev I. Sepp, “Best Practices in Counterinsurgency,” Military Review, May–June 2005, 8–12; Huba Wass de Czege, “On Policing the Frontiers of Freedom,” Army 56, no. 7 (2006), 14–22. 2. The ﬁrst two were killed before my arrival. Private Shawn Pahnke was killed on June 16, 2003, and Private First Class Robert Frantz was killed on June 17, 2003. 3. “Top NCOs Rise to the Occasion,” Spartan Doughboy, December 1, 2003, 4. 4.
The Docks by Bill Sharpsteen
affirmative action, anti-communist, big-box store, collective bargaining, Google Earth, intermodal, inventory management, jitney, Just-in-time delivery, new economy, Panamax, place-making, Port of Oakland, post-Panamax, RAND corporation, refrigerator car, strikebreaker, women in the workforce
This reinforces the image I have of the Coast Guard being centered more on rescuing hapless boaters than on their primary mission here, which is â•¯ â•¯ 232â•… /â•… Security to repel any nefarious types hell-bent on blowing up parts of the port, among other possible evil deeds. Among those deeds, a deliberate explosion seems to be the most common scenario feared by the imaginative people who work in disaster speculation, or what might be called preparing for all possibilities. A 2006 Rand Corporation study describes a lamentably viable means of smuggling weapons into the country via a container—and then turns up the heat, hypothesizing a situation in which “terrorists conceal a 10-Â�kiloton bomb in a shipping container and ship it to the Port of Long Beach. Unloaded onto a pier, it explodes shortly thereafter.” This wouldn’t completely destroy the two ports, they argue, but might allow terrorists to use them as a conduit to devastate the country’s secondlargest city and, by extension, throw the nation’s economy down on the mat.
See also Clean Truck Program Port of Los Angeles Community Advisory Committee, 70, 72, 87, 90 Port of San Francisco, 4 port pilots, pay of, 6 port police, marine, 239 Port Revel, 11 Ports America terminal, 221 Potter, Fredrick, 177 Prince Rupert, Canada, 261 Privette, Bill, 268, 275 Promenade waterfront plan, 85, 91 “prospecting,” 95 Public Policy Institute of California, 235 Punta Colonet, Mexico, 260 Pusan, South Korea, 9 Queens Gate, 26 Quinn, William J., 110, 114 Rajkovacz, Joe, 168, 171, 181 Rand Corporation, 232 Random Lengths, 84, 206 Red Squad, 105 Riggers and Stevedores Union, 99 Rill, Doug, 269, 272 Rios, Louis, 213 Rivera, Carlos, 45 Robertson, J.â•›R ., 122 Rogers, Captain Ron, 5, 10, 13, 15 Ryan, Joseph P., 108, 109 SAFE boats, 240 Salcido, Ray, 106 Samra, Balwinder, 254, 262; background, 255 San Francisco Daily News, 112 San Pedro and Peninsula Homeowner’s Coalition, 62, 68, 87 San Pedro Coordinated Plan Subcommittee, 64 San Pedro Magazine, 63 “Saving Lives” initiative, 82 Schmidt, Henry, 122 Schneier, Bruce, 238 Schomaker, John, 108 Sea-Land Service, 36, 130 “Seventh Heaven,” 105 shape-up, 102 Shibley, George, 213 ship chandler, 47 “shirt time,” 192 shoreside electrical power, 34, 50, 69, 81 Sierra Club, 174, 177 slings, 96 Smith Act, 121 Snyder, Christina, 179 “Song for Bridges” (Almanac Singers), 121 South Coast Air Quality Management District, 71 Southern Counties Express, 170, 172 Southern Pacific Railroad, 3 Spanish missionaries, 3 Sperry, Howard, 114 Spinosa, Jim, 82, 125, 136; on Dave Arian, 199; on TWIC cards, 249; 2002 contract talks, 138; on union busting, 201 SSA Marine, 223 S.S.
Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Gobal Crisis by James Rickards
Asian financial crisis, bank run, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Black Swan, borderless world, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business climate, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Deng Xiaoping, diversification, diversified portfolio, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, full employment, game design, German hyperinflation, Gini coefficient, global rebalancing, global reserve currency, high net worth, income inequality, interest rate derivative, John Meriwether, Kenneth Rogoff, labour mobility, laissez-faire capitalism, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, market bubble, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Myron Scholes, Network effects, New Journalism, Nixon shock, offshore financial centre, oil shock, one-China policy, open economy, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, price mechanism, price stability, private sector deleveraging, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, special economic zone, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, time value of money, too big to fail, value at risk, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
The core group of experts met again at the lab the following month to continue developing the financial war game. In addition to the APL hosts and our sponsors from the Department of Defense, there were representatives from other cabinet-level departments, including Commerce and Energy; several major universities, including the Naval War College; think tanks, including the Peterson Institute and RAND Corporation; other physics labs, including Los Alamos; and senior military officers from the staff of the Joint Chiefs. At this point I noticed the absence of representatives with any actual capital markets experience. I was the only one in the room with a lengthy career on Wall Street that included time at investment banks, hedge funds and exchanges. If we were going to conduct a financial war, we needed people who knew how to use financial weapons—such as front running, inside information, rumors, “painting the tape” with misleading price quotes, short squeezes and the rest of the tricks on which Wall Street thrives.
“Just tell me where I need to be. This’ll be great to mix things up with the generals and intelligence people. Can’t wait.” And that was that. Steve was assigned to the Russia cell, of course. O.D. was assigned to the gray cell, representing the hedge funds and Swiss banks—another appropriate assignment. I was put in the China cell, along with a well-known Harvard academic, a highly cerebral RAND Corporation analyst and two other area experts. The financial war was just a few weeks away and it was time to lay some traps—something the military calls “conditioning the battle space.” I knew that Russia would begin the game with significantly less national power than the United States or even China. In fact, the national power assessment showed Russia having about only two-thirds the strength of the United States, with China somewhere between the two.
Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer by Duncan J. Watts
active measures, affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Black Swan, butterfly effect, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, clockwork universe, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, complexity theory, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, discovery of DNA, East Village, easy for humans, difficult for computers, edge city, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, framing effect, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Santayana, happiness index / gross national happiness, high batting average, hindsight bias, illegal immigration, industrial cluster, interest rate swap, invention of the printing press, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, lake wobegon effect, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, medical malpractice, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, natural language processing, Netflix Prize, Network effects, oil shock, packet switching, pattern recognition, performance metric, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, planetary scale, prediction markets, pre–internet, RAND corporation, random walk, RFID, school choice, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, supply-chain management, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, Toyota Production System, ultimatum game, urban planning, Vincenzo Peruggia: Mona Lisa, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, X Prize
STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY The solution to the strategy paradox, Raynor argues, is to acknowledge openly that there are limits to what can be predicted, and to develop methods for planning that respect those limits. In particular, he recommends that planners look for ways to integrate what he calls strategic uncertainty—uncertainty about the future of the business you’re in—into the planning process itself. Raynor’s solution, in fact, is a variant of a much older planning technique called scenario planning, which was developed by Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation in the 1950s as an aid for cold war military strategists. The basic idea of scenario planning is to create what strategy consultant Charles Perrottet calls “detailed, speculative, well thought out narratives of ‘future history.’ ” Critically, however, scenario planners attempt to sketch out a wide range of these hypothetical futures, where the main aim is not so much to decide which of these scenarios is most likely as to challenge possibly unstated assumptions that underpin existing strategies.18 In the early 1970s, for example, the economist and strategist Pierre Wack led a team at Royal Dutch/Shell that used scenario planning to test senior management’s assumptions about the future success of oil exploration efforts, the political stability of the Middle East, and the emergence of alternative energy technologies.
Brill, Steven. 2009. “What’s a Bailed-Out Banker Really Worth?” New York Times Magazine, Dec. 29. ———. 2010. “The Teachers’ Unions’ Last Stand.” New York Times Magazine (May 23): 32–47. Brooker, Katrina. 2010. “Citi’s Creator, Alone with His Regrets” New York Times, Jan. 2. Brown, Bernice B. 1968. “Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts.” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Michael Schrage. 2009. “The New, Faster Face of Innovation.” MIT Sloan Management Review, August. Buchanan, James. 1989. “Rational Choice Models in the Social Sciences.” In Explorations into Constitutional Economics, ed. R. D. Tollison and V. J. Vanberg. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press. Bumiller, Elisabeth. 2010. “Top Defense Officials Seek to End ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.’ ” New York Times, Feb. 2.
The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow
Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Antoine Gombaud: Chevalier de Méré, Atul Gawande, Brownian motion, butterfly effect, correlation coefficient, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Donald Trump, feminist movement, forensic accounting, Gerolamo Cardano, Henri Poincaré, index fund, Isaac Newton, law of one price, pattern recognition, Paul Erdős, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, RAND corporation, random walk, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, V2 rocket, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!
One researcher even applied the law to thirteen years of Bill Clinton’s tax returns. They passed the test.4 Presumably neither the Harlem syndicate nor its customers noticed these regularities in their lottery numbers. But had people like Newcomb, Benford, or Hill played their lottery, in principle they could have used Benford’s law to make favorable bets, earning a nice supplement to their scholar’s salary. In 1947, scientists at the Rand Corporation needed a large table of random digits for a more admirable purpose: to help find approximate solutions to certain mathematical equations employing a technique aptly named the Monte Carlo method. To generate the digits, they employed electronically generated noise, a kind of electronic roulette wheel. Is electronic noise random? That is a question as subtle as the definition of randomness itself.
Lawrence to 20 Years Prison in Znetix/HMC Stock Scam,” Washington State Department of Financial Institutions, press release, November 25, 2003; http://www.dfi.wa.gov/sd/kevin_laurence_sentence.htm. 3. Interview with Darrell Dorrell, August 1, 2005. 4. Lee Berton, “He’s Got Their Number: Scholar Uses Math to Foil Financial Fraud,” Wall Street Journal, July 10, 1995. 5. Charles Sanders Peirce, Max Harold Fisch, and Christian J. W. Kloesel, Writings of Charles S. Peirce: A Chronological Edition (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1982), p. 427. 6. Rand Corporation, A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates (1955; repr., Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand, 2001), pp. ix–x. See also Lola L. Lopes, “Doing the Impossible: A Note on Induction and the Experience of Randomness,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 8, no. 6 (November 1982): 626–36. 7. The account of Joseph Jagger (sometimes spelled Jaggers) is from John Grochowski, “House Has a Built-in Edge When Roulette Wheel Spins,” Chicago Sun-Times, February 21, 1997. 8.
Tubes: A Journey to the Center of the Internet by Andrew Blum
air freight, cable laying ship, call centre, Donald Davies, global village, Hibernia Atlantic: Project Express, if you build it, they will come, inflight wifi, invisible hand, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, Mercator projection, Network effects, New Urbanism, packet switching, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, side project, Silicon Valley, Skype, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, urban planning, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game
In 1961, while a graduate student at MIT, he published the first paper on “packet switching,” the idea that data could be transmitted efficiently in small chunks rather than a continuous stream—one of the key notions behind the Internet. The idea was already in the air. A professor at the British National Physical Laboratory named Donald Davies had, unbeknownst to Kleinrock, been independently refining similar concepts, as had Paul Baran, a researcher at the RAND Corporation in Los Angeles. Baran’s work, begun in 1960 at the request of the US Air Force, was explicitly aimed at designing a network that could survive a nuclear attack. Davies, working in an academic setting, merely wanted to improve England’s communications system. By the mid-1960s—by which time Kleinrock was at UCLA, on his way toward tenure—their ideas were circulating among the small global community of computer scientists, hashed out at conferences and on office chalkboards.
See also Tata Communications New York City data storage in, 230 Equinix in, 164 and Europe-US telephone connection, 175 fiber highways in, 163–71, 172, 265–66 fiber-optic connections to, 26 Fitzgerald story about, 3 Google headquarters in, 163–64, 172 history of Internet and, 50 hubs in, 171–80, 181 as important network meeting point, 164 and Internet as series of tubes, 5 London traffic with, 180, 202, 208 111 Eighth Avenue (New York City), 163–64, 171, 266 peering and, 128 60 Hudson Street in, 171–74, 176 structure of Internet and, 27 32 Avenue of the Americas in, 171–80 as undersea cables port, 194, 199 New York University (NYU), 50 Newby, Hunter, 174 Ninth Avenue fiber highway (New York City), 164 Nipper, Arnold, 137–38, 140–43, 144–45, 239 North American Network Operators’ Group (NANOG), 58, 66, 157 Austin meeting of, 119–23, 127, 128–35, 157 Northrop Grumman, 62, 123 NorthWestNet, 53 NSFNET, 59, 138 NTT, 125 O’Kane, Victoria, 165 One Wilshire (Los Angeles, California), 200–201 111 Eighth Avenue (New York City), 163–64, 171, 266 online videos, 119 Open Compute project (Facebook), 258 optical modules, 160 Orlowski, Frank, 133–34, 135, 145, 157 Osés, Mara Vanina, 7 Pacific Bell, 64, 84 Pacific DC Intertie, 228 Page, Larry, 69–70 PAIX, undersea cables, PAIX and, 78 Pakistan Telecom, 30 Paling, Jol, 208, 209, 210–15, 216, 267 Palo Alto, California Adelson-Troyer-Blum meeting in, 71–72, 73 See also Palo Alto Internet Exchange (PAIX) Palo Alto Internet Exchange (PAIX) Adelson and, 72, 76–77, 88 Blum visit to, 71–72, 76–85 cable management at, 81–82 carriers and, 89 DEC and, 76, 87, 88 definition of Internet exchange and, 109 diversity at, 79 Equinix and, 76–77, 87 expansion of, 78, 86–87 importance of, 78 location of, 76 “network effect” at, 80–81 openness of Internet and, 117 peering and, 122, 127, 128 problems of, 85–86 Qatar Telecom and, 139 quantity of information passing through, 82–83 and rerouting traffic, 200–201 routers at, 79–80, 82–83, 266 security at, 95 Paris, France, structure of Internet and, 27 Passaic, New Jersey, Smithson tour of, 150–51, 152, 154 Patchett, Ken, 255–56, 257, 258–59, 260–62, 267 Pedro, John, 82 “peering” de-peering and, 123–24, 151 definition of, 118–19 division of groups for, 121–22 globalization of, 125–26 Internet exchanges and, 121–22, 126, 127, 129, 130 NANOG meeting and, 118–23, 128–30, 131–32 and “open peering policy,” 127 Qatar Telecom and, 140 Tier-1 domination of, 124–25 Witteman-Orloski meeting and, 133–35 PeeringDB (website), 126 Peter Faber (cable ship), 219, 221–22 Petrie, Anne, 83 Pipex, 184, 185, 186 “point of entry,” 178, 179 POP (point of presence), 59, 78, 84 Porthcurno (Cornwall, England), 202–16, 253, 267 Portugal, 191–92, 194, 217–26, 267 Postel, Jon, 31, 45 Prineville, Oregon: Facebook data center in, 250–62, 267 privacy issues, 258 Provo, Joe, 122 Provo, Ren, 122, 123 PSI, 56, 59, 60 Qatar, 197 Qatar Telecom, 79, 139–40 Quality Life Broadband (Q-Life), 236, 237, 238, 242, 246 Quincy, Washington, data centers in, 234–35, 250 RAND Corporation, 42 Reid, Brian, 74, 75, 76 Renesys, 123, 124–25, 151 Renton, Alan, 205–6 Research in Motion (RIM), 121 Resolute (cable ship), 218 Reyes, Felix, 77, 81 Roberts, Larry, 42–43, 51 routes/routers in Ashburn, 99–100 as basic building blocks of Internet, 158 Brocade, 157–58, 159–63, 188 dead-end, 31, 32 expansion of Internet and, 55 function of, 160 Internet as self-healing and, 200 IP addresses and, 29–30 at large Internet exchanges, 111 at MAE-East, 65–66, 75–76, 80 in New York City, 164–71 at PAIX, 79–80, 82–83, 266 peering and, 124–25, 127 and rerouting traffic, 200–201 “routing table” and, 30 Traceroute program and, 31–34 trust and, 30–31 “routing table,” 30, 125 Rudin Management, 174–75, 176 Rwanda, 110 Sabey, 235 Sacca, Chris, 237–38, 239 San Jose, California: peering and, 128 SAT-3 (undersea communications cables), 191–92, 197 satellites: Internet exchanges and, 110 Saudi Arabia, 197 Schoffstall, Marty, 60 SEACOM (undersea communications cables), 192, 197 Seales, Brian, 166–71 security/secrecy for cable landing stations, 202, 203 for data centers/storage, 93, 141, 237–40, 242–43, 254, 257 at DE-CIX, 140–41 at Dutch data centers, 152 at Equinix, 93, 141 at Google data center, 242–50, 254, 257 at Internet exchanges, 113–16 at LINX, 185–86 Sensitive Compartmented Information Facilities (“skiffs”), 62 Seoul, Korea: structure of Internet and, 27 service providers: peering and, 119 SESQUINET, 53 The Shadow Factory (Bamford), 63 Shorto, Russell, 146 Siemens Brothers, 206 Sigma-7 computer, 43 Silcock, Colin, 186, 187–89 Silicon Valley belief in limitless potential of technology in, 70 connection of networks in, 67 expansion of Internet and, 50 structure of Internet and, 27 wealth in, 70 See also Palo Alto, California; specific person or corporation Singapore, 128, 139, 194, 196, 199, 201 Singapore Telecommunications, 79 SIX (Seattle, Washington), 111 60 Hudson Street (New York City), 171–74, 176, 202, 215, 266 Smallwood, Christine, 107 Smithson, Robert, 150–51, 154 South Africa, 191–93, 197, 204, 219 South Asia, 196, 200 South Park (TV show), 107–8 Spain, 113 SPAN, 52 speed.
4chan, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Bayesian statistics, Brewster Kahle, buy low sell high, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, disintermediation, don't be evil, global village, Hacker Ethic, hypertext link, index card, informal economy, information retrieval, Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of writing, Isaac Newton, John Markoff, Lean Startup, moral panic, Paul Buchheit, Paul Graham, profit motive, RAND corporation, Republic of Letters, Richard Stallman, selection bias, semantic web, Silicon Valley, social web, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, strikebreaker, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, Y Combinator
The Independence Foundation, a group that itself drew funding from the CIA, sponsored the Woods Hole conference. The project was headquartered at MIT, which had already effectively become a research arm of the federal government. The project’s top men had spent years working at government-sponsored research agencies, such as Lincoln Lab, the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), and the RAND Corporation. An implicit objective was to employ the technology that Intrex developed to help the United States thwart the Soviet menace; from this perspective, libraries were important insofar as they could help scientists build new and better weapons more quickly. The keynote speaker who launched the Intrex conference that August was, appropriately, the godfather of what today we call Big Science. Vannevar Bush was no stranger to government-university partnerships.
Ashcroft, 122–23 and free culture movement, 3–4 as penalty vs. opportunity, 115 and public access, 185–87 purpose of, 112 and social value, 4, 135 Public Knowledge, 230 public.resource.org, 185 Publishers’ Weekly, 53, 56, 58, 59 publishing: of academic research, 175–77, 178 as “best-seller system,” 65 commercial viability of, 13, 25–26, 39, 121, 175 “courtesy of the trade,” 54–56, 65 electronic, 120 and invention of movable type, 18 of non-US books, 39, 41, 46–47 percentage of authors’ royalties to, 41 protectionist laws, 120 serials pricing crisis in, 175 of unauthorized editions, 42–43, 53, 56 white-shoe East Coast, 54–55 Putnam, George Haven, 53–55, 56, 57 and free public libraries, 70 and international copyright, 53, 59, 60, 64 Memories of a Publisher, 54 Putnam, George Palmer, 45 Putnam, Herbert: as Boston head librarian, 67, 70 and copyright law revisions, 72–73, 75–76 death of, 78 as librarian of Congress, 70–71, 77–78 on public libraries, 80, 100 Putnam, John, 71 Putnam’s, 52 Quine, Willard Van Orman, 217 Radway, Janice A., 69 Ramsay, David, 25, 34 Rand, Ayn, Atlas Shrugged, 107 RAND Corporation, 82 Raw Nerve, 251–53, 255 ask others for help, 252–53, 257 believe you can change, 251–52 confront reality, 254 lean into the pain, 252, 257 on systemic failure, 265 take a step back, 252 reading: cheap books, 52, 55–56, 58, 59, 61 dime novels, 52, 55 e-books, 99, 107, 117 escapism in, 52 literacy rates, 25, 26–27, 39, 44, 48 penny press, 48 value of, 48–49 recorded sound, 69, 71, 74, 77 Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), 134, 152–53 Reddit, 156–61, 164, 223 development of, 149–51 and Internet Censorship Day, 240, 241 sale of, 2, 156, 158, 170 Swartz’s departure from, 159–61, 171, 248 Reed Elsevier, 175, 178–79, 180, 239 Reformation, 99 Rehnquist, William, 138 Rein, Lisa, 123, 130, 139, 141, 269 Remember Aaron Swartz, 261 Rensselaer, Stephen van, 35 resource.org, 187 Reville, Nicholas, 152 robotic harvesting, 198–99 Romuald (monk), 169 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 78, 82, 208 Roosevelt, Theodore, 70, 75 Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 151 Rules, The, breakers of, 14 Rush, Benjamin, 33 Russell, Bertrand, 254 Ryshke, Robert, 127 Sadler, Bess, 181 Santana, Carlos, 111 Scalia, Antonin, 121 Scheiber, Noam, 201 Schoen, Seth, 8, 138–39, 144, 148 Schonfeld, Roger, JSTOR, 195, 196 Schoolyard Subversion (blog), 126 Schulman, John, 85 Schultze, Stephen, 189 Schwartz, John, 191 Schweber, S.
Present Shock: When Everything Happens Now by Douglas Rushkoff
algorithmic trading, Andrew Keen, bank run, Benoit Mandelbrot, big-box store, Black Swan, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, cashless society, citizen journalism, clockwork universe, cognitive dissonance, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, disintermediation, Donald Trump, double helix, East Village, Elliott wave, European colonialism, Extropian, facts on the ground, Flash crash, game design, global supply chain, global village, Howard Rheingold, hypertext link, Inbox Zero, invention of agriculture, invention of hypertext, invisible hand, iterative process, John Nash: game theory, Kevin Kelly, laissez-faire capitalism, Law of Accelerating Returns, loss aversion, mandelbrot fractal, Marshall McLuhan, Merlin Mann, Milgram experiment, mutually assured destruction, negative equity, Network effects, New Urbanism, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Occupy movement, passive investing, pattern recognition, peak oil, price mechanism, prisoner's dilemma, Ralph Nelson Elliott, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, Skype, social graph, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, the medium is the message, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Turing test, upwardly mobile, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks, Y2K, zero-sum game
Gaming gave leaders a way to choose which feedback to hear and which to ignore. Even if there were millions of possible actors, actions, and connections, there were only two real superpowers—the Soviet Union and the United States. Military leaders figured that game theory, based on the mathematics of poker, should be able to model this activity and give us simple enough rules for engagement. And so the RAND Corporation was hired to conduct experiments (like the Prisoner’s Dilemma, which we looked at earlier), determine probable outcomes, and then program computers to respond appropriately in any number of individual circumstances. Led by the as yet undiagnosed paranoid schizophrenic John Nash (the mathematician portrayed in the movie A Beautiful Mind), they adopted a principle called MAD, or mutually assured destruction, which held that if the use of any nuclear device could effectively guarantee the complete and utter annihilation of both sides in the conflict, then neither side would opt to use them.
See also timescales Prisoner’s Dilemma, 193, 194, 220, 222, 248 privacy, 158, 169, 204 production, 81, 127, 161–62, 165 productivity, 81, 82, 95, 98, 106, 111, 117, 143 programmers, 85, 87, 96–97, 98, 128, 231–32 programs, 84, 87, 93, 98, 101–2, 107, 113–14, 263 progress, 86, 253–54. See also change Prometheus, 190 public, sophistication of, 45 public relations, 205, 207, 214, 217, 223 publishing, 97 Pulp Fiction (movie), 30–31 Quetzalcoatl (Mayan god), 253 railroad industry, 82 RAM, 5, 140, 140n, 181–89 Ramo, Joshua, 236–37 RAND Corporation, 220–21, 225 The Real World (TV show), 35–36 reality: apocalypto and, 262, 264; chronobiology and, 88; digiphrenia and, 113; fractalnoia and, 216–17; games and, 60; narrative collapse and, 50, 66; overwinding and, 165, 169; temporal, 165. See also reality television reality television, 2, 35–43, 66, 136, 149–50 “The Relationship Economy” (Michalski), 238–39 religion, 8, 28, 76–77, 78–79, 101, 212, 260–62, 263–64 remote control: for television, 21; warfare by, 7, 120–22 Rifkin, Jeremy, 78–79 Rinne, April, 238 Ritalin, 92, 124 Rizzo, Albert “Skip,” 65–66 Roberts, Kevin, 211 Robertson, Joel, 102–3, 104 Romero, George, 249 RPG (role-playing game), 60–61, 62–63 runners, 101–2 Rushkoff, Douglas: car accident of, 65–66; father’s clock and, 83–84; first exposure to computers of, 230–31; Michalski meeting with, 237–38; TripTik experience of, 109; writing of book by, 264–65 Santa Fe Institute, 227, 228 schedules, digiphrenia and, 84, 85, 93–109 screech, fractalnoia and, 208, 210 SEALS, Navy, 136 Second Life, apocalypto and, 263 Second Life (online virtual world), 258 self: digital/virtual, 69–76, 88; representation of, 96.
Pay Any Price: Greed, Power, and Endless War by James Risen
air freight, airport security, banking crisis, clean water, drone strike, Edward Snowden, greed is good, illegal immigration, income inequality, large denomination, Occupy movement, pattern recognition, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, Stuxnet, too big to fail, WikiLeaks
He was the gregarious center of gravity of a tight-knit group of longtime friends in Santa Monica, the Peter Pan character in a crowd reminiscent of the cast of Friends, a short, stocky, and bald-headed slacker and computer geek who loved to work from home on his laptop, a gamer addicted to World of Warcraft, a liberal who expressed distaste for George Bush during long talks around the UCLA campus or in coffee shops near the ocean. But he was also a behavioral science researcher who had cultivated close ties to the CIA and Pentagon while working as an analyst at the RAND Corporation and later at the Defense Group, a defense and intelligence contracting firm. He had a Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information clearance, and his research focused on finding new ways of determining when someone was lying—“deception detection” research. He would regularly disappear from his Santa Monica apartment to fly to Washington for meetings with officials from the CIA, Pentagon, Department of Homeland Security, and National Security Agency.
Many of the intelligence reports produced by the centers were so bad that they were withheld from distribution inside the government. Others that were distributed should not have been. In 2011, one Illinois fusion center warned darkly that Russian hackers had tapped into the computer system of a water district in Springfield. In fact, a repairman had remotely accessed the water district’s computer system while on vacation in Russia. Brian Jenkins of the RAND Corporation, one of the nation’s most thoughtful terrorism analysts, points out that in the years since the 9/11 attacks, the United States has been remarkably free of terrorism, despite the heightened levels of fear and anxiety. “In terms of domestic terrorism, this has been the most tranquil decade since the early 1960s,” says Jenkins. Domestic radicals in the late 1960s and 1970s engaged in far more violence than the United States has experienced since 9/11, he notes.
Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (And How to Take Advantage of It) by William Poundstone
availability heuristic, Cass Sunstein, collective bargaining, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, East Village, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, equal pay for equal work, experimental economics, experimental subject, feminist movement, game design, German hyperinflation, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, index card, invisible hand, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, laissez-faire capitalism, Landlord’s Game, loss aversion, market bubble, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nash equilibrium, new economy, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, Philip Mirowski, Potemkin village, price anchoring, price discrimination, psychological pricing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, random walk, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, rolodex, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, ultimatum game, working poor
A 25-cent bet on a Las Vegas roulette table could be a factor in the greatest decision ever to confront mankind. That would be the unimaginably catastrophic decision to plunge the world into nuclear war. Some place, at some time, as long as a human being is able to poise his finger over a nuclear button, that is a possibility. The journalist doubtless got that cold-war spin from Edwards, a RAND Corporation consultant and advisor to governmental agencies. Edwards talked up the Las Vegas game as “one of the few decision-making experiments ever conducted.” Never was it mentioned in the article that this particular game was devised not by Edwards but by two of his former students. Sarah Lichtenstein had heard that Edwards had an “angel.” This was the attorney and casino backer Charles B. G. Murphy.
., 53 Psychological Bulletin, 54, 55, 86 psychophysics, 8–9, 26–27, 29–36, 39– 40, 53, 146; definition of, 31; experiments in, 26–27, 35, 40; of jury awards, 276–79; luxury trade and, 155; magnitude scales of, 194; of money, 42–45 origins of, 29–32; of pain, 136; perceptual illusion demonstrations of, 36–37, 84–85; power curve rule in, 32–33; prospect theory and, 98; of rebates, 178 Psychophysics (Stevens), 34 Puffs tissues, 5 Puto, Christopher, 151–53, 156 Quarterly Journal of Economics, The, 138 Quattrone, George, 12–13 Quilted Northern toilet paper, 5 racial discrimination, 245, 283; in car sales, 241–44 Rand, Ayn, 108 RAND Corporation, 71 Rapp, Gregg, 162–64 rationality: bounded, 52; cult of, 77–78 Ravikovich, Dahlia, 82 Reagan, Ronald, 56, 256 real estate market, 196–206, 211; alcohol and deal-making in, 219; anchoring in, 196–201, 203–205; bargaining in, 115; bubbles in, 101, 264; charm prices in, 186; framing of gains and losses in, 107; incentives in, 176; money illusion in, 229 rebates, 176–78 reference points, 98, 101, 132 reference pricing, 204–206 Remington Rand, Inc., 224 Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 223 restaurants, 143–45, 159–64; charm pricing by, 186, 190 Revionics, Inc., 6, 148 RFID tags, 150 Richelieu, Duc de, 219 Riding, Alan, 266–67 Ritov, Ilana, 209–10 Ritty, James, 186 Riviera Casino (Las Vegas), 49 Robb Report, 156 Roberts, Gilbert, 283 Robertson, Leslie, 27 Rockefeller, J.
The Seventh Sense: Power, Fortune, and Survival in the Age of Networks by Joshua Cooper Ramo
Airbnb, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, British Empire, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, defense in depth, Deng Xiaoping, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Firefox, Google Chrome, income inequality, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, job automation, market bubble, Menlo Park, Metcalfe’s law, natural language processing, Network effects, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, packet switching, Paul Graham, price stability, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, Republic of Letters, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, road to serfdom, Robert Metcalfe, Sand Hill Road, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, social web, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, Vernor Vinge, zero day
., Foreign Policy Breakthroughs: Cases in Successful Diplomacy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015), 1. “During the time”: Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), 88. Biological surveillance: The foundational text of network battle thinking is: John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, eds., Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2001). For a discussion of the biological issues, see Eugene Thacker, “Living Dead Networks,” The Fibreculture Journal 4 (2005). Hannibal’s smashing attacks: A. T. Mahan, The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1783 (Boston: Little, Brown, 1890), iv. One hacker: David Raymond et al., “A Control Measure Framework to Limit Collateral Damage and Propagation of Cyber Weapons,” in Karlis Podins, Jan Stinissen, and Markus Maybaum, eds., 5th International Conference in Cyber Conflict: Proceedings 2013 (Tallinn, Estonia: NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence Publications, 2013).
“Everything is a gate”: Felix “FX” Lindner and Sandro Gaycken, “Back to Basics: Beyond Network Hygiene,” in Best Practices in Computer Network Defense: Incident Detection and Response, ed. Melissa E. Hathaway (Amsterdam, the Netherlands: IOS Press, 2014), 55–56. Chapter 10. HARD GATEKEEPING “The United States faces no existential threat”: See James Dobbins et al., Choices for America in a Turbulent World (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015), xiv. For a discussion of the nature of security and values, see Arnold Wolfers, “‘National Security’ as an Ambiguous Symbol,” Political Science Quarterly 67, no. 4 (December 1952): 485. “Every new age”: Carl Schmitt, Nomos of the Earth in the International Law of the Just Publicum Europaeum (New York: Telos Press, 2006), 45. “Those gateways”: Quoted in Robert Jervis, “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 30, no. 2 (January 1978): 169.
Ten Billion Tomorrows: How Science Fiction Technology Became Reality and Shapes the Future by Brian Clegg
Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Brownian motion, call centre, Carrington event, combinatorial explosion, don't be evil, Ernest Rutherford, experimental subject, game design, gravity well, hive mind, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Schrödinger's Cat, silicon-based life, speech recognition, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Turing test, V2 rocket
Brunner uses the computer’s ability to combine ultrafast communication and data processing to transform the nature of democracy, making government something that resembles a cross between online polls and a casino, with its collation of human responses and betting odds. The book’s title is a reference to Alvin Toffler’s stodgy 1970 work of futurology, Future Shock. While Toffler has proved pretty well universally wrong when it comes to the real world, his ideas were much followed at the time and proved a great inspiration for fiction writers. In this case the concept is built on the Delphi method, originated by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. In the original Delphi process a series of individuals were given a decision to make, or questions to answer. After a first pass at answering, the results were fed back to the whole panel, who then had the opportunity to revise their answers. There seemed some evidence that the result of this procedure was to home in on a better solution than would have been achieved by just taking the original opinions of the decision makers.
See energy predictions challenge with chaos theory and rocket belt Wells’ warfare The Prestige Prey (Crichton) Priest, Christopher probes Project Daedalus Project Orion Project Ozma projectile weapons Prokhorov, Alexander prosthetics psychohistory pulsars pure energy beings quantum computers quantum entanglement communication with Dirac transmitter and encryption with quantum particles quantum teleportation quantum tunneling The Quincunx of Time (Blish) radio signals alien contact and first intergalactic interpreting SETI and “Wow! Signal” in radioactivity rail gun RAND Corporation ray guns rays refractive index relativity Einstein’s Galileo’s replicants retina scans Robby (fictional character) Roboroach “Robot Suit HAL” robots. See also nanotechnology 1950s androids distinction from bee-like functionality for humanoid in movies precursors to task-oriented rocket belts development of first flight with military funding of practical use of SF predictions of rocketry Roddenberry, Gene on cloaking device phaser creation of Romero, John Romulans (fictional characters) R.U.R.
Social Capital and Civil Society by Francis Fukuyama
Berlin Wall, blue-collar work, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Akerlof, German hyperinflation, Jane Jacobs, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, labor-force participation, low skilled workers, p-value, Pareto efficiency, postindustrial economy, principal–agent problem, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, transaction costs, World Values Survey
Social Capital FRANCIS FUKUYAMA THE TANNER LECTURES ON HUMAN VALUES Delivered at Brasenose College, Oxford May 12, 14, and 15, 1997 FRANCIS FUKUYAMA is Omer L. and Nancy Hirst Professor of Public Policy at the Institute of Public Policy at George Mason University and director of the Institute’s International Transactions Program. Educated at Cornell, he received his Ph.D. from Harvard University. He has been a member of the Political Science Department of the RAND Corporation, where he is currently a consultant, as well as a member of the Policy Planning Staff of the U.S. Department of State. He is a member of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies and the Council on Foreign Relations; the editor, with Andrez Korbonski, of T h e Soviet Union and the Third W o r l d : T h e Last Three Decades (1987) ; and book review editor at Foreign A f a i r s .
Information: A Very Short Introduction by Luciano Floridi
agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, bioinformatics, carbon footprint, Claude Shannon: information theory, conceptual framework, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, George Akerlof, Gordon Gekko, industrial robot, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Internet of things, invention of writing, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, moral hazard, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, Pareto efficiency, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prisoner's dilemma, RAND corporation, RFID, Thomas Bayes, Turing machine, Vilfredo Pareto
Another way of defining complete information is in terms of common knowledge: each player knows that each player knows that... each player knows all other players, their strategies, and the corresponding payoffs for each player. Typical examples include the rock-paperscissors game and the prisoner's dilemma. There is no need to describe the former but the latter is sufficiently complex to deserve some explanation. We owe the logical structure of the prisoner's dilemma to the Cold War. In 1950, RAND Corporation (Research ANd Development, a non-profit think tank initially formed to provide research and analysis to the US armed forces) was interested in game theory because of its possible applications to global nuclear strategy. Merrill Flood (born 1912) and Melvin Dresher (19111992) were both working at RAND and they devised a gametheoretic model of cooperation and conflict, which later Albert Tucker (1905-1995) reshaped and christened as the `prisoner's dilemma'.
AI winter, call centre, carbon footprint, crowdsourcing, demand response, discovery of DNA, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, global supply chain, Internet of things, John von Neumann, Mars Rover, natural language processing, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, planetary scale, RAND corporation, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, smart grid, smart meter, speech recognition, Turing test, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!
After he got his Ph.D. in mathematics from Princeton in 1954 and served in the U.S. Navy, the navy hired him as a consultant and asked him to use mathematical techniques to help design the optimal naval taskforce—how many aircraft carriers, battleships, and so on. He invented a new method, called integer programming, to help solve the problem. Initially, he did this work with pencil and paper, then, with a mechanical calculating machine. Finally, he was invited by the Rand Corporation, a think tank in California, to use their large-scale computer, one of only a few that existed at the time.6 Ralph created a program that could compute an optimal design given a specific set of choices. But today we’re faced with immensely complicated problems that contain so many possibilities that it would take a long time, even with a powerful computer, to explore all of them using Ralph’s deterministic techniques.
Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability With Solutions by Frederick Mosteller
The game will be played just once. (b) A friend of yours has available many black and many white balls, and he puts black and white balls into the urn to suit himself. You choose "black" or "white." A ball is drawn randomly from this urn. Write down the maximum amount you are willing to pay to play this game. The game will be played just once. Problems without Structure (11 and 12) Olaf Helmer and John Williams of The RAND Corporation have called my attention to a class of problems that they call "problems without structure," which nevertheless seem to have probabilistic features, though not in the usual sense. 11. Silent Cooperation Two strangers are separately asked to choose one of the positive whole numbers and advised that if they both choose the same number, they both get a prize. If you were one of these people, what number would you choose?
The end of history and the last man by Francis Fukuyama
affirmative action, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, centre right, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, Gini coefficient, Gunnar Myrdal, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, kremlinology, labour mobility, land reform, long peace, Mikhail Gorbachev, nuclear winter, open economy, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Socratic dialogue, strikebreaker, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, zero-sum game
(Continued on back flap) (Continued from front flap) Fukuyama's contemporary consideration of this ultimate question is both a fascinating education in the philosophy of history and a thoughtprovoking inquiry into the deepest issues of human society and destiny. FRANCIS FUKUYAMA is a former deputy director of the U.S. State Department's Policy Planning Staff. He is currently a resident consultant at the RAND Corporation in Wash ington, DC. THE FREE PRESS A Division ofMacmillan, NEW YORK © 1992 Macmillan, Inc. (New York) jacket design © REM Studio, Inc. author photo © Dan Borris/Outline Inc. Praise for Francis Fukuyama's The End Of History and the Last Man "Bold, lucid, scandalously brilliant. Until now the triumph of the West was merely a fact. Fukuyama has given it a deep and highly original meaning'.' — Charles Krauthammer "With one now-famous essay, Frank Fukuyama did what had hitherto seemed almost impossible: he made Washington think.
As the aims of perestroïka became more radical, military preparedness came under stiffer internal challenge. By the early 1990s, the reform process itself had weakened the Soviet economy dramatically and made it less competitive militarily. For an account of the Soviet military's views on the need for economic reform, see Jeremy Azrael, The Soviet Civilian Leadership and the Military High Command, 1976—1986 (Santa Monica, Calif.: The RAND Corporation, 1987), pp. 1 5 - 2 1 . 11. Many of these points are made in V. S. Naipaul, Among the Believers (New York: Knopf, 1981). 12. Nathan Rosenberg and L. E. Birdzell, J r . , "Science, Technology, and the Western Miracle," Scientific American 263, no. 5 (November 1990): 4 2 - 5 4 ; on per capita income in the eighteenth century, see David S. Landes, The Unbound Prometheus: Technological Change and Industrial Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1969), p. 13. 13.
Gorbachev's Struggle for Economic Reform: The Soviet Reform Process, 1985-88. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, N.Y. Avineri, Shlomo. 1968. The Social and Political Thought of Karl Marx. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Avineri, Shlomo. 1972. Hegel's Theory of the Modern State. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Azrael, Jeremy. 1987. The Soviet Civilian Leadership and the High Command, 1976— 1986. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. Azrael, Jeremy. 1966. Managerial Power and Soviet Policy. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. Babst, Dean V. 1972. "A Force for Peace." Industrial Research 14 (April): 5 5 - 5 8 . Baer, Werner. 1989. The Brazilian Economy: Growth and Development, third edition. Praeger, New York. Baer, Werner. 1972. "Import Substitution and Industrialization in Latin Amer ica: Experiences and Interpretation."
Who Stole the American Dream? by Hedrick Smith
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbus A320, airline deregulation, anti-communist, asset allocation, banking crisis, Bonfire of the Vanities, British Empire, business process, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Brooks, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, family office, full employment, global supply chain, Gordon Gekko, guest worker program, hiring and firing, housing crisis, Howard Zinn, income inequality, index fund, industrial cluster, informal economy, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kitchen Debate, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, laissez-faire capitalism, late fees, Long Term Capital Management, low cost carrier, manufacturing employment, market fundamentalism, Maui Hawaii, mega-rich, mortgage debt, negative equity, new economy, Occupy movement, Own Your Own Home, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, Ponzi scheme, Powell Memorandum, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Renaissance Technologies, reshoring, rising living standards, Robert Bork, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School, The Spirit Level, too big to fail, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, union organizing, Unsafe at Any Speed, Vanguard fund, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, working poor, Y2K
—ROBERT REICH, secretary of labor, 1995 These are not Einsteins or superstars. That has always been a lot of hype. H-1B never required that they be the best and brightest in the world. It only required a bachelor’s degree. —BRUCE MORRISON, former congressman, 2011 We find neither an inadequate supply of STEM [scientific, technical, engineering, mathematical] workers to supply the nation’s current needs, nor indications of shortages in the foreseeable future. —RAND CORPORATION STUDY, 2004 IN AMERICA, one of the most controversial causes of job loss in the high-tech industry involves not offshoring but “onshoring”—importing college-educated foreigners to come work in the United States and replace Americans—a strategy favored by such major U.S. companies as AIG, Disney, IBM, Microsoft, and Pfizer. The high-tech world has long looked to recruit hot new talent through immigration, and in fact, immigrant scientists and entrepreneurs have played key roles in sparking America’s preeminence in high tech.
CHAPTER 17: THE SKILLS GAP MYTH 1 “We have seen numerous” William Branigin, “White-Collar Visas: Back Door to Cheap Labor?” The Washington Post, October 21, 1995. 2 “These are not Einsteins” Bruce Morrison, interview, January 24, 2011. 3 “We find neither an inadequate supply” William Butz, Terrence K. Kelly, David M. Adamson, et al., “Will the Scientific and Technology Workforce Meet the Requirements of the Federal Government?” Rand Corporation, 2004, http://www.rand.org. 4 To recruit hot new talent “American-Made: The Impact of Immigrant Entrepreneurs and Professionals in U.S. Competitiveness,” National Venture Capital Association, 2006, http://www.nvca.org. 5 “It makes no sense to” “Bill Gates to Congress: Let Us Hire More Foreigners,” CNET News, March 12, 2006, http://news.cnet.com. 6 No ironclad protections for Americans Morrison, interview, January 24, 2011. 7 Senior AIG executives summoned 250 Linda Kilcrease, “Problems with the H-1B Visa Expansion and T-Visas,” web post, January 8, 2008, accessed January 17, 2011. http://www.zazona.comLibrary/BrainSavers/Problems_Kilcrease.htm, and Kilcrease, letter to editor, “H-1B Visa: A Bad Idea,” Cnet, 2009, accessed April 21, 2012. 8 “After we were seated” Douglas Crouse, “Competition from Abroad,” The Daily Record, Morris County, New Jersey, May 2, 2000. http://www.programmersguild.org/archives/lib/abuse/drm20000502aig.htm. 9 Americans were being replaced by H-1B Kilcrease, “Problems with the H-1B Visa Expansion.” 10 Did not bring in any special skills William Branigan, “White Collar Visas: Back Door for Cheap Labor,” The Washington Post, October 21, 1995. 11 “This profitable company boasted Kilcrease, “Problems with the H-1B Visa Expansion.” 12 One-third of its 46,000-member workforce “Quota Quickly Filled on Visas for High-Tech Guest Workers,” The New York Times, April 5, 2007. 13 Foreign worker tide kept rising “Flaws in Guest Worker Programs Add to US Unemployment Misery,” International Business Times News, November 21, 2010. 14 Or multinational temp agencies Ron Hira and Anil Hira, Outsourcing America: The True Cost of Shipping Jobs Overseas and What Can Be Done About It, 2nd. ed.
Blackwill, Robert D. “Plan B in Afghanistan.” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 1 (January–February 2011). Building America’s Future Educational Fund. “Falling Apart and Falling Behind: Transportation Infrastructure Report 2011.” http://www.bafuture.org. Butz, William, Terrence K. Kelly, David M. Adamson, et al. “Will the Scientific and Technology Workforce Meet the Requirements of the Federal Government?” Rand Corporation, 2004. Case, Karl E., and Robert J. Shiller. “Is There a Housing Bubble?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2, no. 2 (2003): 299–342. Case, Karl E., John M. Quigley, and Robert J. Shiller. “Wealth Effects Revisited 1978–2009.” Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, February 2011. Cassidy, John. “The Greed Cycle.” The New Yorker, September 23, 2002.
air freight, Apple II, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Buckminster Fuller, Byte Shop, computer age, computer vision, corporate governance, Donald Knuth, El Camino Real, game design, Hacker Ethic, hacker house, Haight Ashbury, John Conway, John Markoff, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, non-fiction novel, Norman Mailer, Paul Graham, popular electronics, RAND corporation, reversible computing, Richard Stallman, Silicon Valley, software patent, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, Whole Earth Catalog, Y Combinator
And if the machine had been carefully packed and shipped, the heavy star would be in the center, and the cigar-shaped rocket and the tube-shaped rocket would be ready for cosmic battle. A maiden flight for a magic machine. • • • • • • • • Spacewar, as it turned out, was the lasting legacy of the pioneers of MIT hacking. In the next couple of years many of the TX-0 and PDP-1 joyriders departed the Institute. Saunders would take a job in industry at Santa Monica (where he would later write a Spacewar for the PDP-7 he used at work). Bob Wagner went off to the Rand Corporation. Peter Deutsch went to Berkeley, to begin his freshman year of college. Kotok took a part-time job that developed into an important designing position at DEC (though he managed to hang around TMRC and the PDP-1 for years afterward). In a development that was to have considerable impact on spreading MIT-style hackerism outside of Cambridge, John McCarthy left the Institute to begin a new artificial intelligence lab on the West Coast, at Stanford University.
He’d manage to get four hours of PDP-6 time a day, and he’d keep writing offline when he wasn’t on the machine. He got the program actually playing chess in one week. The program was debugged, given features, and generally juiced up over the next few months. (Greenblatt was eventually offered an MIT degree if he would write a thesis about his chess program; he never got around to it.) Circulating around MIT around 1965 was a notorious Rand Corporation memo called "Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence.” Its author, an academic named Herbert Dreyfus, lambasted the field and its practitioners. To hackers, his criticism was particularly noxious, since the computer was their implicit model of behavior, at least in their theories of information, fairness, and action. Dreyfus focused on the computer’s ridiculously limited structure (compared to the structure of the human brain).
Wizards social aspects, The Wizard and the Princess Programming languages, The Wizard and the Princess programming languages, Afterword: 2010 Project MAC, Spacewar, Greenblatt and Gosper, Greenblatt and Gosper, Winners and Losers, Afterword: 2010 Project One, Revolt in 2100 Propaganda of the Deed, The Homebrew Computer Club Q Quinn, Mike, Every Man a God R Radio Amateur’s Handbook, Revolt in 2100 Radio Electronics, Every Man a God, Every Man a God Radio Frequency (RP) Modulators, Woz Radio Shack, Secrets Rand Corporation, Greenblatt and Gosper Raster Blaster game, Summer Camp Red Death, Greenblatt and Gosper Registers, Greenblatt and Gosper Reiling, Bob, Woz Research Laboratory of Electronics (RLE), The Tech Model Railroad Club, Spacewar Resource One, Revolt in 2100 Revolt in 2100 (Heinlein), Revolt in 2100, Revolt in 2100, Revolt in 2100 Rich and Rich Synergistic Enterprises, Wizard vs. Wizards Right Thing, The, Greenblatt and Gosper Robbins, Harold, The Wizard and the Princess Roberts, Ed, Every Man a God, Every Man a God, The Homebrew Computer Club, Tiny BASIC, Tiny BASIC, Tiny BASIC, Woz Robotics, Winners and Losers, Life Robotron game, Frogger, Wizard vs.
The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution by Francis Fukuyama
Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, California gold rush, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, currency manipulation / currency intervention, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, double entry bookkeeping, endogenous growth, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Francisco Pizarro, Hernando de Soto, hiring and firing, invention of agriculture, invention of the printing press, Khyber Pass, labour market flexibility, land reform, land tenure, means of production, offshore financial centre, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, principal–agent problem, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Right to Buy, Scramble for Africa, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), spice trade, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
Galston, Can a Polarized American Party System Be “Healthy”? (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Issues in Governance Studies No. 34, April 2010). 11 See the chapters by Thomas E. Mann and Gary Jacobson in Pietro S. Nivola and David W. Brady, eds., Red and Blue Nation? Vol. 1 (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2006); also James A. Thomson, A House Divided: Polarization and Its Effect on RAND (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010). There is some debate on exactly how polarized the American public is; on many cultural issues, like abortion and guns, there is a broad centrist group without strong convictions, with far more committed minorities at either end of the spectrum. See Morris P. Fiorina et al., eds., Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America, 3rd ed. (Boston: Longman, 2010). 12 The phenomenon of broader communications bandwidth leading to the increasing compartmentalization of political discourse was predicted some years ago by Ithiel de Sola Pool, Technologies of Freedom (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 1983). 13 See, for example, Isabel V.
Berkeley: University of California Press. Thies, Cameron G. 2005. “War, Rivalry, and State Building in Latin America.” American Journal of Political Science 49(3):451–65. Thomas, Melissa. 2009. “Great Expectations: Rich Donors and Poor Country Governments.” Social Science Research Network Working Paper. Thomson, James A. 2010. A House Divided: Polarization and Its Effect on RAND. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Tiger, Lionel. 1969. Men in Groups. New York: Random House. Tilly, Charles. 1990. Coercion, Capital, and European States, AD 990–1990. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell. Tocqueville, Alexis de. 1998. The Old Regime and the Revolution, Vol. One. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ———. 2000. Democracy in America. Trans. Harvey C. Mansfield and Delba Winthrop. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Three Books Against the Simoniacs (Humbert of Moyenmoutier) Three Dynasties Three Gorges Dam Three Kingdoms Tibet Tiger, Lionel Tilly, Charles Time of Troubles Timor-Leste Tocqueville, Alexis de Togo Tokugawa shogunate Tolstoy, Leo Tonga Tönnies, Ferdinand Tower of Babel, biblical story of Transoxania Transparency International Transylvania tribal societies; Arab; Chinese; European; Indian; in Latin America; law and justice in; legitimacy in; military slavery and; mitigation of conflict in; persistence to present day of; property in; religion in; state-level societies compared to; transition from or band-level organization to; Turkish; warfare and conquest by; see also kinship; lineage; specific tribes Trivers, Robert Trobriand Islands Tudors Tunisia Tuoba tribe Turcoman tribes Turenne, Henri de La Tour d’Auvergne, Vicomte de Turgot, Anne-Robert-Jacques Turkana people Turkish Republic Turks; in Abbasid empire; in China; in Hungary; in India; in Transylvania; see also Ottoman Empire Tursun Bey Tylor, Edward Ukraine ulama Umar, Caliph Umayyad dynasty United Nations United States; accountability in; Afghanistan and; antistatist traditions in; bureaucracy in; during cold war; dysfunctional political equilibrium in; economic crises in; homicide in; invasion of Iraq by; Japan and; local governments in; military of; modernization theory in; patronage politics in; per capital spending on government services in; rule of law in; slavery in; South Korea and; taxation in Urban II, Pope urban centers, see cities Uthman, Caliph Uzbekistan Vaishyas Vanuatu Varangians Vedas Velasco, Andres Vena, King venal officeholding: in England; in France; in Russia; in Spain Venezuela Venice, republic of Vietnam Vikings Vinogradoff, Paul violence; in agrarian societies; in chimpanzee society; in China; as driver of state formation; in England; in France; in India; in prehistoric societies; property rights and; religion and; in Russia; in state of nature; see also war Vladimir, Prince Voltaire Vorontsov, Count Vrijjis, gana-sangha chiefdom of Wahhabism Wales Wallis, John Wang, Empress of China Wang family Wang Mang Wanli emperor waqfs (Muslim charity) war; civil, see civil war; counterinsurgency; financing of; institutional innovations brought on by; in Malthusian world; in Muslim states; prisoners of; religion and; state formation driven by; in state of nature; technology of; tribal; see also specific wars War and Peace (Tolstoy) Warring States period; cities during; cultural outpourings during; education and literacy during; infantry/cavalry warfare during; kinship groupings during; map of; road and canal construction during Wealth of Nations, The (Smith) Weber, Max; on bureaucracy; on charismatic authority; on feudalism; modernization theory of; on religion Wei, state of Wei Dynasty Weingast, Barry Wei state well-field system Wen, Emperor of China Wendi, Emperor of China Westphalia, Peace of Whig history White, Leslie William I, King of England William III (William of Orange), King of England Wittfogel, Karl Woolcock, Michael World Bank World Trade Organization World War I Worms, Concordat of Wrangham, Richard Wriston, Walter Wu, Emperor of China Wu Zhao (Empress Wu) Xia Dynasty Xian, Duke Xianbei tribe Xiang Yu Xiao, Duke Xiao-wen, Emperor of China Xin dynasty Xiongnu tribe Xi Xia tribe Xu, Empress of China Xun Zi Yale University Yan, Empress of China Yangdi, Emperor of China Yang family Yang Jian Yangshao period Yanomamö Indians Y chromosome Yellow Turban rebellion Ying Zheng Young Turk movement Yuan Dynasty Yuezhi Yugoslavia Yurok Indians Yushchenko, Viktor Zaire Zakaria, Fareed zemskiy sobor zero-sum games Zhang Shicheng Zhao Kuangyin Zheng He Zhongzong, Emperor of China Zhou Dynasty; bureaucracy during; Confucianism during; Eastern (see also Spring and Autumn period; Warring States period); feudalism of; Later; Mandate of Heaven and; Western Zhu Yuangzhang Zi Chan Zoloft Zoroastrianism A NOTE ABOUT THE AUTHOR Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Resident at the Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. He has taught at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and at the George Mason University School of Public Policy. He was a researcher at the RAND Corporation and served as the deputy director in the State Department’s policy planning staff. He is the author of The End of History and the Last Man, Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity, and America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy. He lives with his wife in Palo Alto, California. Copyright © 2011 by Francis Fukuyama All rights reserved FARRAR, STRAUS AND GIROUX 18 West 18th Street, New York 10011 www.fsgbooks.com Maps copyright © 2011 by Mark Nugent Designed by Abby Kagan eISBN 9781429958936 First eBook Edition : April 2011 First edition, 2011 Grateful acknowledgment is made for permission to reprint the following material: Excerpts from Islam from the Prophet Muhammad to the Capture of Constantinople.
Trust: The Social Virtue and the Creation of Prosperity by Francis Fukuyama
barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blue-collar work, business climate, capital controls, collective bargaining, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, double entry bookkeeping, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, George Gilder, glass ceiling, global village, Gunnar Myrdal, hiring and firing, industrial robot, Jane Jacobs, job satisfaction, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, land reform, liberal capitalism, liberation theology, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, mittelstand, price mechanism, profit maximization, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Ronald Coase, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transaction costs, transfer pricing, traveling salesman, union organizing
Rowen, Clare Wolfowitz, Robert D. Putnam, George Holmgren, Lawrence Harrison, David Hale, Wellington K. K. Chan, Kongdan Oh, Richard Rosecrance, Bruce Porter, Mark Cordover, Jonathan Pollack, Michael Swaine, Aaron Friedberg, Tamara Hareven, and Michael Mochizuki. Abram Shulsky, as usual, contributed greatly to the book’s conceptualization. Once again, I am grateful to James Thomson and the RAND Corporation, which tolerated my presence as I was writing this book. I owe a long-standing debt of gratitude to my literary agents, Esther Newberg and Heather Schroder, who made both this and the volume that preceded it possible. Much of the material covered in this book would never have come to my attention but for the hard work of my research assistants, Denise Quigley, Tenzing Donyo, and especially Chris Swenson, who was of invaluable assistance through all phases of this study.
Although there are revisionists in Germany who deny the Holocaust ever happened, they are regarded as part of a crackpot fringe; in Japan, by contrast, respectable politicians like Shintaro Ishihara and academics like Soiichi Watanabe can still deny that the Nanking Massacre was an atrocity. 21Ian Buruma, The Wages of Guilt: Memories of War in Germany and Japan (New York: Farrar Straus Giroux, 1994), p. 31. 22This is based on average annual hours of 1,604 for Germany and 2,197 for Japan. Data taken from David Finegold, K. Brendley, R. Lempert et. al, The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for its Sustainable Recovery (Santa Monica, Ca.: RAND Corporation MR-479/1-OSTP, 1994), p. 23. CHAPTER 22. THE HIGH-TRUST WORKPLACE 1Allan Nevins, with Frank E. Hill, Ford: The Times, the Man, the Company (New York: Scribner’s, 1954), p. 517. 2Nevins (1954), p. 553. 3James P. Womack, Daniel T. Jones, and Daniel Roos, The Machine That Changed the World: The Story of Lean Production (New York: HarperPerennial, 1991), p. 31. 4David A. Hounshell, From the American System to Mass Production, 1800-1932 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1984), pp. 258-259. 5Nevins (1954), p. 558. 6Nevins (1954), pp. 561-562.
. -----, The Moral Dimension: Toward a New Economics (New York: Free Press, 1988). Fallows, James, Looking at the Sun: The Rise of the New East Asian Economic and Political System (New York: Pantheon Books, 1994). -----, More Like Us: Making America Great Again (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1989). Feingold, David, Brendley, K, Lempert, R., et. al, The Decline of the US Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for its Sustainable Recovery (Santa Monica, Ca.: RAND Corporation MR-479/1-OSTP, 1994). Feuerwerker, Albert, China’s Early Industrialization (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1958). -----, The Chinese Economy ca. 1870-1911 (Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press, 1969). -----, “The State and the Economy in Late Imperial China,” Theory and Society 13 (1984): 297-326. Fisher, Albert L., “Mormon Welfare Programs,” Social Science Journal 25 (1978): 75-99.
Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century by P. W. Singer
agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Atahualpa, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bill Joy: nanobots, blue-collar work, borderless world, clean water, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, cuban missile crisis, digital map, en.wikipedia.org, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Firefox, Francisco Pizarro, Frank Gehry, friendly fire, game design, George Gilder, Google Earth, Grace Hopper, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of gunpowder, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, Isaac Newton, Jacques de Vaucanson, job automation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Law of Accelerating Returns, Mars Rover, Menlo Park, New Urbanism, pattern recognition, private military company, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, strong AI, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Wisdom of Crowds, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, Wall-E, Yogi Berra
Department of Labor, Bureau of International Affairs (2003), and Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, “State of World Population 2003: Making 1 Billion Count” (New York: United Nations Population Fund, 2003). 285 “These poor, young billions” Petersen, “A Strategy for the Future of Humanity.” 285 Population growth in Sudan “Water Find ‘May End Darfur War’ ” BBC News, July 18, 2007 (cited July 18, 2007); available at http://news.bbc.couk/2/hi/africa/6904318.stm 285 “the century of ‘not enough’ ” Peters, “The Culture of Future Conflict.” 285 global warming will bring water scarcity Rob Taylor, “Millions to Go Hungry by 2080: Report,” Truthout, January 30, 2007, http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/013007EA.shtml 285 100 million people Michael Casey, “Report: Millions Face Hunger from Climate Change,” Christian Post, April 10, 2007, http://www.christianpost.com/article /20070410 /26802_Report: _ Millions_ Face_Hunger_from_Climate_Change.htm 285 “Unchecked climate change” Ibid. 286 “Now the ignorant know” Ralph Peters, interview, Peter W. Singer, March 29, 2007. 286 the more people are connected Richard O. Hundley and RAND Corporation, The Global Course of the Information Revolution: Recurring Themes and Regional Variations (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2003). 286 fifty countries that have “stateless zones” George J. Tenet, The Worldwide Threat 2004: Challenges in a Changing Global Context. 286 “Extreme losers in the information revolution” Hundley and RAND Corporation, The Global Course of the Information Revolution. 287 Al-Qaeda’s movement of its training camps George J. Tenet, The Worldwide Threat 2004. 287 “It has become increasingly difficult” Syed Hamid Albar, “Remarks at the U.S. and Islamic World Forum” (presentation, Doha, Qatar, February 17, 2006). 287 over half of humankind Tom Standage, A History of the World in 6 Glasses (Walker & Company, 2006), 93; David Oliver, “Training Street Fighters,” Military Technology 31, no. 4 (2007): 39. 287 are about forty times larger Joseph Grosso, review of Monster at Our Door by Mike Davis (2005), Z Magazine 19(11) (2005), available at http://zmagsite.zmag.org/Nov2006/grosso1106.html. 287 “The city—capstone of human organization” Ralph Peters, “Our Soldiers, Their Cities,” Parameters 26, no. 2 (1996): 45. 287 “the new forests” Ralph Peters, e-mail, Peter W.
., “The Origins of the American Military Coup of 1912,” Parameters, 12, no. 4 1992. 213 “are part of the traditional U.S. military repertoire”Jeffrey Record, “Why the Strong Lose,” Parameters 35, no. 4 (2005): 16. 213 “During the Cold War” Steven Metz, Learning from Iraq: Counter-Insurgency in American Strategy (Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College, 2006), 78. 213 not being localized battles of asymmetry Rick Brennan et al., “Future Insurgency Threats” (RAND Corporation, 2005); David Kilcullen, “Countering Global Insurgency,” Journal of Strategic Studies 28, no. 4 (2005). 213 “in discussing any modernization effort” Ann Roosevelt, “FCS Would Bring Significant Advantages to Future Insurgency-Type Operations, Harvey Says,” Defense Daily, January 23, 2007. 213 “We continue to focus” Thomas X. Hammes, The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century (St.
agricultural Revolution, airport security, Anton Chekhov, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial exploitation, complexity theory, computer age, crony capitalism, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Eratosthenes, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, illegal immigration, Internet Archive, John Snow's cholera map, Khyber Pass, manufacturing employment, megacity, Mercator projection, out of africa, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, special economic zone, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, UNCLOS, UNCLOS
Part of this cost represents the impact on the airline industry, from the grounding of all American aircraft on the day of the attack and the shutdown of air transportation for several days afterward to the temporary but crucial fear-induced shrinkage in passenger volume. The chaotic and inconsistent installation of airport security systems further damaged the industry. Today the system works better. But a RAND Corporation study published in January 2005 raises the prospect of potential attacks on commercial aircraft in the United States by terrorist operatives using shoulder-fired missiles because hijacking an airliner by boarding it is now less feasible. A key segment of this report, however, raises a troubling cost assessment: about $1 billion for the aircraft and its passengers and crew, $3 billion if the aviation system were again shut down for up to a week, and another $12 billion resulting from lost business and reduced passenger loads following an attack.
See also specific regions and countries distribution, 98-99 "doubling times" for, 105 and environment, 101-3 future patterns, 95-97 and global warming, 53, 82, 278 growth, 51,92-95, 94 on maps, 116-17 overpopulation, 92, 100, 101 and politics, 100-101 ZPG (Zero Population Growth), 93, 106 Portugal and China, 136, 142 colonialism, 262, 263, 264 and European Free Trade Association, 210 and Muslim realm, 161 nation-state model, 110 Postglacial Optimum, 76 Potsdam Agreement, 224 poverty, 8-9, 256 Powell, Colin, 256, 274 Precambrian, 59 primates, 65-68, 68, 72 Primorskiy Territory, Russia, 242, 243 Protcrozoic eon, 58, 59, 60 Protestant Reformation, 166 provincialism, 21 public transportation, 203 Pudong, China, 129, 139 Puntland, 37-38, 185 Pushtuns, 157-58 Putin, Vladimir, 247, 250-51, 252, 256 Qing (Manchu) Dynasty, 135, 135-36, 138 Quebec, Canada, 109 Queen Elizabeth Lslands, 108 Quran, 164 RAND Corporation, 175 Ratzel, Friedrich, 111 Reader, John, 264 Reagan, Ronald, 17, 50 Real Irish Republican Army (RIRA), 161 Red Guards, 126 Red Sea, 70, 259 refrigeration, 93 reglaciation, 78 Reilly, Jack, 18 relative location in maps, 33 religion. See also specific religions, including Islam and European Constitution, 214-15 extremism, 21 freedom of religion, 166, 281 and population, 94 religious conversion, 165 separation of church and state, 166 remote sensing, 46 reptiles, 60, 62 Republic of Ichkeria (Chechnya), 247 Republic of Somaliland, 37 303 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC), 181 Rhine River, 80 Rhone-Alpes (region), 218, 220 Richardson, Douglas, 48 "RingofFire," 55,56 river basins, 97-98, 134 Robinson, Arthur H., 24, 34, 35 Roma (Gypsies), 212 Roman Catholic Church, 94, 101, 186 Romance languages, 201 Roman Empire, 9, 77, 128, 202 Romania devolutionary pressure, 206 and European Union, 211, 218, 225, 226, 228 and Muslim realm, 161 and NATO, 229 and Roma (Gypsies), 212 Rotterdam firebombing, 150, 275 Royal Geographic Society, 127-28 Rumaylah Oil Field, 114 rural areas, 96, 100, 134, 158-59, 177 Rushdie, Salmon, 163, 165 Russia, 231-54.
The Right to Earn a Living: Economic Freedom and the Law by Timothy Sandefur
barriers to entry, big-box store, Cass Sunstein, clean water, collective bargaining, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, Edward Glaeser, housing crisis, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, labour mobility, minimum wage unemployment, positional goods, price stability, profit motive, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, rent control, Robert Bork, Silicon Valley, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transaction costs, Upton Sinclair, urban renewal, wealth creators
And almost every state’s courts have found “implied contracts” based on the employer’s conduct, which limit the ability to fire an employee despite the fact that no explicit contract ever existed.95 As a result of these decisions, employers are more reluctant to hire new employees, and longer-tenure employees are likely to keep their jobs even if they fail to perform. It is impossible to measure the precise economic effect of restrictions on at-will employment, but a thorough 1992 research project by the Rand Corporation found that “aggregate employment averages 2.9 percent lower in years following a state’s recognition of tort damages for wrongful termination,” and that states recognizing both tort and contract causes of action for wrongful termination would have about 4.7 percent lower employment than states that did not.96 When state courts adopt limits on the at-will employment contract, 235 The Right to Earn a Living aggregate employment drops by 2 to 5 percent—even more in service industries and large businesses.
Bogen), 288 privileges and immunities clause, 4 Corfield and, 40–41 dormancy, 43–44 overruling, revival, reversal of, 287–92 right to make and enforce contracts, 288–89 Slaughterhouse and, 41–44 states’ rights and, 40–41 productive work, 3 professions barriers to entry, 63, 141 licensing, 23, 63, 99–100, 145–56 restricted entry, 22, 23 restricting or eliminating competition, 289–90 unskillfulness, 23 Progressive Era, xiv–xv, 44–50 eminent domain and, 32 misconceptions about, 47–49 regulation of business and economy, 13, 15, 123–27, 136–37 Supreme Court, 15, 279. see also specific justices 371 Index Progressivism agenda, ideology, and philosophy, 11, 12–13, 44–50, 279–81 assault on economic liberty, 11–16, 44–50, 279–81, 290, 292 changing American political philosophy, 44–50 criticism of and attack on Lochner, 107–10, 121 doctrines, 279–81 economic freedom argument, 123–27 free speech and, 191–92 majority over individuality, 11, 44–45, 109–10, 121, 279, 292. see also collective decisionmaking notion of individual freedom, 116–17 pro-government presumption, xiii–xiv, 11–13, 44–50 rational basis test and, 125–27 rights as permissions, 95, 109, 116–17, 279, 282–83 socialist nature of, 46, 123–27 visionary zeal to do gooders, 13, 46 Prohibition, legacy of, 183–84 property corporate, 34 regulation as secondary to, 272–73 property redistribution government redistributive programs, 283 Progressivism and, 13 property rights, xvii, 24–25 of criminals, 259 givings theory and, 272–74 land-use regulation, 160. see also zoning laws, protectionism and Locke on, 273 ownership as separate from right to use, 257 partial property rights in other people, 290–91 Rehnquist and Roberts Courts, 277–78 right of use of property or land, 257, 271 see also regulatory takings Property Rights from Magna Carta to the Fourteenth Amendment (Bernard Siegan), 283 Prosser, William, 76 protection of the public. see public interest or public welfare protection of unenumerated rights, 93–94 372 protectionism, xvi, 141–44, 173–74 agricultural adjustment programs, 164–70, 174 barriers to entry, 141 contracts clause and, 154 dormant commerce clause and, 153–54 franchise acts and, 170–73, 174 as legitimate state interest, 289 licensing laws, 145–59, 174 necessity of new business and certificates of necessity, 143–44 public choice theory and, 289–90 tariffs, 141 taxi industry example, xi–xiii, xiv, xv, xvi, 143–44, 286 zoning laws, 159–63, 174 public choice theory, 289–90 public contracts, 69–73 public interest or public welfare contracts clause, 75–81 Liebmann and, 142–43 Munn and Nebbia and, 101, 125–27. see also rational basis test Powers and, 152–55, 159, 162, 289 seizure of property. see eminent domain doctrine; regulatory takings public nuisance, xvii Blackmun on, 240 common or public right definition, 241 reasonable and lawful conduct, 243–45 reasonableness and unreasonableness, 240–41, 242 regulatory takings and, 258 tort law abuse, 239–45 public policy, manipulation of contracts and, 214, 215, 220–24 public use, synonymous with public benefit, 255 Pumpelly v. Green Bay Company, 256–57, 258 Radford, R. S., 262 railroads antitrust case Alaska Railroad, 56–57 corporation as person in Santa Clara County, 34 eminent domain doctrine and, 31–32, 48 raisin-confiscation case, 164–65, 167–69, 270–71 Rand, Ayn, 285 Index Rand Corporation employment research, 235–36 rational basis test, xv, xvi, 15, 273, 286, 289 argumentum ad ignoratium fallacy, 129 burden of proof and, 128, 129–30 constitutional double standard, 136–40 defining legitimate state interest, 129, 132–33 evolution, 123–27 laws related to legitimate government interest, 132–33 occupational licensing and, 133–34, 148–49, 151, 153, 156–59, 174 problems with, 127–34 varying standards and levels of scrutiny, 135–40 realist school of legal thought, 12 Redish, Martin, 200, 201 regulation, secondary to concept of property, 272–73 regulation of business and economy, 11 constitutionality of, xv Populist Era, 39–44 Progressive Era, 13, 15, 44–50, 123–27, 136–37 protecting business from competition. see protectionism in public interest, 5, 125–27, 142–43 unfettered, 6 see also rational basis test regulatory state, 286, 289 entrenched interests and lobbyists and, xiv–xv regulatory takings, xvii, 255–56 categorical (with compensation) takings, 260–62 character of government action and, 262–63 compensation-denial tactics, 268–74 compensation requirement and, 255, 264–68, 271 constructive consent rule, 269 controversies surrounding, 264–68 definition of “take,” 256–60 development and, 265, 271, 275–76 eminent domain and, 255–60, 267 exactions as, 274–77 extortion in, 274 fairness within, 263 Fifth Amendment and, 255 future of takings law, 277–78 givings theory and, 272–74 noncompensable regulation as actual confiscation, 258–59 notice rule theory, 269 Penn Central test, 260, 262–64, 268 police powers and, 257–60, 263 public good over individual rights protection, 265–66 reasonableness of owner expectations, 263–64, 270 reasons for, 256–60 right of use of property or land, 257, 271 types of, 260–64 Rehnquist, William, 277 Reinhardt, Stephen, 237–38 rent-control, 75 residential development fees, 275–76 resource allocation and use, Progressives and, 13–14 Restatement of Torts, 240–41 The Return of George Sutherland (Hadley Arkes), 7 Rhode Island common insignia laws, 207 lead paint public nuisance case, 239, 244–45 regulatory taking examples, 262, 270 Richardson, Dorsey, 124 right to earn a living, xvi–xvii, 1–5, 12 as a natural right, 23–25, 39, 48, 169. see also natural rights of all humanity noncompetition clauses and, 64–65 present-day attitude toward and consensus on, 5–6 see also economic freedom and liberty rights limits of, 7 as permissions, 95, 109, 279, 282–83 Roberts, John, 277–78 Robinson-Patman Act, 53 Rockefeller, Edwin, 54 Romer v.
Space Chronicles: Facing the Ultimate Frontier by Neil Degrasse Tyson, Avis Lang
Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, asset allocation, Berlin Wall, carbon-based life, centralized clearinghouse, cosmic abundance, cosmic microwave background, dark matter, Gordon Gekko, informal economy, invention of movable type, invention of the telescope, Isaac Newton, Karl Jansky, Kuiper Belt, Louis Blériot, Mars Rover, mutually assured destruction, Pluto: dwarf planet, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, space pen, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, trade route, V2 rocket
Commentators became fond of twenty-year intervals, within which some previously inconceivable goal would supposedly be accomplished. On January 6, 1967, in a front-page story, the Wall Street Journal announced: “The most ambitious US space endeavor in the years ahead will be the campaign to land men on neighboring Mars. Most experts estimate the task can be accomplished by 1985.” The very next month, in its debut issue, The Futurist magazine announced that according to long-range forecasts by the RAND Corporation, a pioneer think-tank, there was a 60 percent probability that a manned lunar base would exist by 1986. In The Book of Predictions, published in 1980, the rocket pioneer Robert C. Truax forecast that fifty thousand people would be living and working in space by the year 2000. When that benchmark year arrived, people were indeed living and working in space. But the tally was not fifty thousand.
., 196 Presidential Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy, 59–60, 146 President’s Commission on Higher Education, 125 Prince (singer), 203 Principia (Newton), 113 Project Prometheus, 169–70 propulsion: alternate fuels for, 157–59 antimatter drive and, 170–71 chemical fuel for, 163 electricity and, 165 in-space, 170 ion-thruster engine and, 164–65, 170 nuclear power and, 159, 168–69 rocket equation and, 153–54, 157 and slowing down, 155–56 solar sails and, 159, 165–67, 170 third law of motion and, 153, 158 xenon gas and, 164–65 Proxima Centauri, 195–96 Ptolemy, Claudius, 34, 65 pulsars, 29 Qatar, 5 quasars, 91 R-7 rocket, 126 racism, 66–67 radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs), 168–69 radio telescopes, 91 radio waves, 28–29, 30, 31, 39, 90–91 radium, 96 RAND Corporation, 218 Ranger 7 spacecraft, 70 Reagan, Ronald, 5, 6 relativity, general theory of, 94–95, 101, 248, 250 relativity, special theory of, 195–96 Republicans, 4–5, 15, 17, 224–25 Resnik, Judith, 243 robots, 129, 134 in space exploration, 57, 89–90, 128, 130–32, 187, 198, 199, 202 rocket equation, 153–54, 157 rockets: flybys and, 157 liquid-fueled, 192 phallic design of, 222–23 propulsion of, see propulsion Rodriguez, Alex, 114 Röntgen, Wilhelm, 94, 96, 135 Royal Society, 216 Russia, xiv, 6, 22, 162, 168 ISS and, 319 Star City training center of, 73, 74, 207 Sagan, Carl, 27, 28, 43, 193, 256 Salyut space module, 6 Sarge (comedian), 234 satellites, xiii, xiv, 60, 71, 94 communication, 129 first US, 124–25 Saturn, 31, 82, 112, 115, 119, 138, 157, 168, 210, 225, 245 radio emissions from, 90–91 Saturn V rocket, 15, 127, 154, 158, 172, 214, 219, 220, 229 as a wonder of the modern world, 232–33 Schmitt, Harrison, 69, 132 Schwarzenegger, Arnold, 153 science, 206, 226 Arabs and, 205–6 discovery and, 98 emerging markets and, 209–10 literacy in, 57–59, 230–31, 235–36 multiple disciplines and, 209–10 Scientific American, 223 scientific method, 86 Scobee, Dick, 242 Seeking a Human Spaceflight Program Worthy of a Great Nation, 146 Senate, US, 5, 146, 328 Aeronautical and Space Sciences Committee of, 272 and appointments to Commission on Future of Aerospace Industry, 316 Appropriations Committee of, 321, 329 Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee of, 288, 321, 323, 324, 329 sense of wonder, 64–65 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 206 Sesame Street (TV show), 257 SETI (search for extraterrestrial intelligence), 41, 325 Shapley, Harlow, 98–101 Shatner, William, 180 Shaw, Brewster, 221 Shepard, Alan B., 114 short-period comets, 46 Siberia, 50 Sims, Calvin, 55–62 Sirius, 178 Skylab 1 (space station), 214 slingshot effect, 119–20 Smith, George O., 175 Smith, Michael, 242 Smithsonian Institution, 216 solar sails, 159, 165–67, 170 solar system, 34, 259 many-body problem and, 117–18 perturbation theory and, 118 solar wind, 176, 235, 245 solid rocket boosters, 155 Soter, Steven, 256 sound, speed of, 108–9 sound barrier, 109 South Africa, xiv South Pole, 76 Soviet Union, xiii, 8, 94, 133, 194, 215, 218 US rivalry with, 5–6, 59, 79, 87, 121–27, 133, 192, 219 see also Sputnik space, space exploration: colonization of, 57, 60, 102–3 cosmic microwave background in, 92, 94–95 cross-discipline endeavor in, 24–25, 230 culture and, 72–74, 147–48, 210–11 early attitudes toward, 217–18 economic motivation for, 200–201 factions against, 8–10 in Galef/Pigliucci interview of author, 75–83 inventions statute and, 311 justification for funding of, 78–81 militarization of, 60 numbers employed in, 236–37 politics and, 3–5 proposed programs and missions for, 201–2 robots and, 57, 89–90, 128, 130–32, 187, 198, 199, 202 significance of, 102 Soviet achievements in, 122–26 special interests and, 5, 236–37 stellar nurseries in, 93 technological innovation and, 12 US-Soviet rivalry and, 5–6, 59, 79, 87, 121–27, 133, 192, 219 war as driver of, 219–20 Space Cowboys (film), 162 Space Exploration Initiative, 8 Space Foundation, 221–22 Spaceguard Survey, The: Report of the NASA International Near-Earth Object Detection Workshop, 50 space junk, 176 space shuttle, 7, 12, 25, 109, 160–62, 165, 201, 202, 228, 281 contingency funding for, 321–22 fuel of, 158 launch costs of, 320–22 main parts of, 154–55 pricing policy for, 314 retirement of, 14–16, 143, 214 speed of, 222 use policy for, 312–13 weight of, 155 see also specific vehicles Space Station Freedom, 6, 8 Space Studies Board, 169 Space Technology Hall of Fame, 221, 230–31, 237 Space Telescope Science Institute, 10, 23, 135–36 Space Transportation System, 314 space travel, 191–98 coasting in, 247 in Colbert–author interview, 186–88 danger of, 198 financing of, 193–94 in Hollywood movies, 194–95 Moon missions and, 192–93 robots and, 198 special relativity and, 195–96 Space Travel Symposium, 111 Spain, 7, 87 spectroscopy, 30 Spirit (Mars exploration rover), 130–33, 138 Spitzer Space Telescope, 139 Sputnik, xiii, 5, 59, 79, 113–14, 133, 192, 218 50th anniversary of, 226 US response to, 122–24 Star City (training center), 73, 74, 207 Stars & Atoms (Eddington), 107 Star Trek (TV series), 3, 164, 170 45th anniversary of, 178–81 human behavior and, 180 technology of, 179 Star Trek: The Motion Picture (film), 37–38 Star Wars (film series), 131 State Department, US, 312 Stewart, Jon, 4 Stone, Sharon, 203 subatomic particles, 94 Sugar, Ron, 221 Sun, 27, 28, 29, 33, 46, 58, 72, 97, 112, 117, 118, 138, 195, 245 Copernican principle and, 34 energy emitted by, 93 fusion in, 101 neutrinos emitted by, 94 planets’ orbits and, 115 Superconducting Super Collider, 6–7, 80–81 Sweden, 7 Swift, Philip W., 223 Swift Gamma Ray Burst Explorer, 139 Switzerland, 7 Sykes, Wanda, 17 Systems of the World, The (Newton), 113 Taj Mahal, 88 Tamayo-Méndez, Arnaldo, 122 TASS, 123 Taylor, Charles E., 219 technology, 89, 200, 226 aero-space integration plan for, 323–24 in alien observation of Earth, 29–32 CRDAs policy on transfer of, 304–6 energy conservation and, 96 engineering, 95 Industrial Revolution and, 95 information, 95 leadership and, 23 multiple disciplines and, 135–37 nonsectarian philosophies and, 206 predicting future of, 215–16 progress in, 218–19 space exploration and, 135 of Star Trek, 179 US lag in, 21–22 telescopes, 71, 82, 85–86, 94, 141, 225 microwave, 91–92 radio, 91 ultraviolet, 93 Tereshkova, Valentina, 122 Texas, 6 Thompson, David, 221 three-body problem, 116–17 Three Gorges Dam, 22, 233 Three Mile Island meltdown, 168 Titan, 31 Huygens probe to, 138–39 methane on, 138–39 Today Show (TV show), 210–11 Tonight Show (TV show), 144–45 Toth, Viktor, 250 Townsend, W.
What Technology Wants by Kevin Kelly
Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Buckminster Fuller, c2.com, carbon-based life, Cass Sunstein, charter city, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, computer vision, Danny Hillis, dematerialisation, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, Douglas Engelbart, en.wikipedia.org, Exxon Valdez, George Gilder, gravity well, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, interchangeable parts, invention of air conditioning, invention of writing, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, John Conway, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, Lao Tzu, life extension, Louis Daguerre, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, off grid, out of africa, performance metric, personalized medicine, phenotype, Picturephone, planetary scale, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, refrigerator car, Richard Florida, Rubik’s Cube, Silicon Valley, silicon-based life, Skype, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Ted Kaczynski, the built environment, the scientific method, Thomas Malthus, Vernor Vinge, wealth creators, Whole Earth Catalog, Y2K
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 94 World Population Forecasts: Data from United Nations Population Division. (2002) “World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision.” http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2002/WPP2002-HIGHLIGHTSrev1.pdf. 94 that is, for the next 300 years: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. (2004) “World Population to 2300.” http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf. 95 Estimated Long-Range World Population: Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. (2004) “World Population to 2300.” http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf. 95 every country in Europe is below 2.0: Rand Corporation. (2005) “Population Implosion? Low Fertility and Policy Responses in the European Union.” http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9126/index1.html. 95 Japan is at 1.34: (2008, June 24) “Negligible Rise in Fertility Rate.” Japan Times Online. http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ed20080624a1.html. 96 Recent Fertility Rates in Europe: Data from Rand Corporation. (2005) “Population Implosion? Low Fertility and Policy Responses in the European Union.” http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9126/index1.html. 100 “would have turned out to be right”: Julian Lincoln Simon. (1995) The State of Humanity.
Bernie Madoff, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cleantech, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Menlo Park, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment, Whole Earth Catalog
As for terrorism, the very nature of the global oil market—the biggest, most integrated, most transparent market ever created—undermines the claim that using less oil will somehow result in a reduction in the tactics of terror. Although it’s true that some petrostates have ties to terrorism—Iran being an obvious example—it’s just as true that Iran and other oil exporters cannot be isolated from the global oil market. Terrorism isn’t an ideology, it’s a tactic, a cheap tactic, and it doesn’t depend on petrodollars. In May 2009, the Rand Corporation, one of the oldest defensefocused think tanks in Washington, released a report concluding that America’s “reliance on imported oil is not by itself a major national security threat.” The report went on to debunk the claim that oil and terrorism are related, saying, “Terrorist attacks cost so little to perpetrate that attempting to curtail terrorist financing through measures affecting the oil market will not be effective.”11 Many people may be worried about peak oil, but those concerns frequently ignore the fundamentals of the marketplace.
v=TUxwiVFgghE. 5 For Romm’s rantings, see Climateprogress.org. 6 Set America Free, “Set America Free Update E-mail,” January 29, 2007, www.setamericafree.org/safupdate012907.htm. 7 Environment New Jersey, “Report Says Fossil Fuels Status Quo Will Cost New Jersey Billions; Urges Clean Energy Solutions,” June 30, 2009, http://www.environmentnewjersey.org/newsroom/energy/energy-program-news/report-says-fossil-fuels-status-quo-will-cost-new-jersey-billions-urges-clean-energy-solutions. 8 These issues are fully discussed in my last book, Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of “Energy Independence” (New York: PublicAffairs, 2008). 9 Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum Navigator,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mttexus2M.htm. 10 Energy Information Administration, “Country Energy Profiles,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm. 11 Keith Crane, Andreas Goldthau, Michael Toman, Thomas Light, Stuart E. Johnson, Alireza Nader, Angel Rabasa, and Harun Dogo, “Imported Oil and US National Security,” Rand Corporation, May 11, 2009, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG838.pdf, xvi. 12 Edward Gismatullin, “BP Makes ‘Giant’ Oil Discovery in Gulf of Mexico,” Bloomberg, September 2, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adF31W9._rik. 13 BP press release, September 2, 2009, http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7055818. The other participants in the well are Petrobras, with a 20 percent stake, and ConocoPhillips, with 18 percent. 14 Steven Bodzin and Daniel Cancel, “Spain’s Repsol Says It Makes Venezuela’s Biggest Gas Discovery,” Bloomberg, September 12, 2009, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Niall Ferguson
Admiral Zheng, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, asset-backed security, Atahualpa, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Black Swan, Black-Scholes formula, Bonfire of the Vanities, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, capital asset pricing model, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, commoditize, Corn Laws, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deglobalization, diversification, diversified portfolio, double entry bookkeeping, Edmond Halley, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, Francisco Pizarro, full employment, German hyperinflation, Hernando de Soto, high net worth, hindsight bias, Home mortgage interest deduction, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, information asymmetry, interest rate swap, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, iterative process, John Meriwether, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labour mobility, Landlord’s Game, liberal capitalism, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, market bubble, market fundamentalism, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, Myron Scholes, Naomi Klein, negative equity, Nick Leeson, Northern Rock, Parag Khanna, pension reform, price anchoring, price stability, principal–agent problem, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, profit motive, quantitative hedge fund, RAND corporation, random walk, rent control, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, seigniorage, short selling, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, spice trade, structural adjustment programs, technology bubble, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, transaction costs, value at risk, Washington Consensus, Yom Kippur War
For one thing, they were simultaneously pursuing multiple, uncorrelated trading strategies: around a hundred of them, with a total of 7,600 different positions.82 One might go wrong, or even two. But all these different bets just could not go wrong simultaneously. That was the beauty of a diversified portfolio - another key insight of modern financial theory, which had been formalized by Harry M. Markowitz, a Chicago-trained economist at the Rand Corporation, in the early 1950s, and further developed in William Sharpe’s Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).83 Long-Term made money by exploiting price discrepancies in multiple markets: in the fixed-rate residential mortgage market; in the US, Japanese and European government bond markets; in the more complex market for interest rate swapsbf - anywhere, in fact, where their models spotted a pricing anomaly, whereby two fundamentally identical assets or options had fractionally different prices.
unsafe investment bet 229 protectionism 159. see also free trade Prussian government bonds 86 public housing 246-7 publicly owned firms 353 Public Works Administration 246-7 Pückler-Muskau, Prince 90 Putin, Vladimir 276 put options 12 ‘quants’ 321-7 Quantum Fund 319 Quilmes 274 race divisions 243-6 . see also anti-Semitism; ethnic minorities Rachman, Peter 252 railways 226 Rand Corporation 323 random drift 350 randomness 342 ‘random walk’ 320 Ranieri, Lewis 259 rating agencies 268 raw materials see resources RCA 160 Reagan, Ronald 252 and capital account liberalization 312 and S&Ls 254 welfare reforms 219 real estate see property recessions 103-4 prospects of 8 recourse 270n. recovery, economic 274 red-lining (credit rating) 250 re-emerging markets 288 Rees-Mogg, Lord 166 reflation 142 reflexivity 316 Reform Bills see electoral reform Regulation Q 249 regulation/regulators 54 and change 356-7 deregulation 170 Reichsmark, collapse of 101-5 religious minorities 2 Renaissance 3 Renaissance (company) 330 Renda, Mario 255 renminbi 333 rented accommodation: private 230 public see council housing; landlords; public housing rentes/rentiers 73-4 reparations see Germany reporting, pressures of 354 representative governments 26 repression (political) 214 Republican Party 170 reserve ratio 48-9 residential mortgage-backed collateralized debt obligations (RMBS CDOs) 272 residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) 260n.
Cocaine Nation: How the White Trade Took Over the World by Thomas Feiling
anti-communist, barriers to entry, crack epidemic, deindustrialization, illegal immigration, informal economy, inventory management, land reform, Lao Tzu, mandatory minimum, moral panic, offshore financial centre, RAND corporation, Right to Buy, Ronald Reagan, trade route, upwardly mobile, yellow journalism
It is not easy to reduce or stop the compulsive drug use of long-term heroin, crack or methamphetamine users. A study conducted in the United States in 1994 found that only 13 per cent of hard-core drug users who received help were able to reduce their use substantially, or kick it entirely.39 This may seem a demoralizingly low success rate, but it is far higher than that achieved by arresting, jailing, disenfranchising, and un-employing drug addicts. A study by the RAND Corporation in 1994 found that to achieve a 1 per cent reduction in cocaine consumption in the United States, the government could spend an additional $34 million on drug-treatment programmes, or twenty-three times as much ($783 million) on trying to eradicate the supply of cocaine from Colombia.40 Despite this vindication of the efficacy of drug-treatment programmes, provision in the United States is woefully inadequate.
Interview with Tony D’Agostino of Coca, a London charity working at an international level to increase knowledge and understanding of cocaine and crack use, August 2007. 38. Antonin Artaud, ‘Appeal to Youth: Intoxication-Disintoxication’, reproduced in Susan Sontag (ed.), Selected Writings, pt. 24 (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1988). 39. C. P. Rydell and S. S. Everingham, Controlling Cocaine, prepared for the Office of National Drug Control Policy and the United States Army (Santa Monica, CA: Drug Policy Research Center, RAND Corporation, 1994), p. xvi. 40. Ibid. 41. Abt Associates, What America’s Users Spend on Illegal Drugs 1988–1998 (Washington, DC: ONDCP, Dec. 2000), p. 9, citing data from the Substance Abuse Mental Health Services Administration. 42. See Ministry of Health, Drug Policy in the Netherlands, September 2003. 43. Canadian Senate hearing from Peter Cohen in 2001. Proceedings of the Special Committee on Illegal Drugs, Issue 3, Evidence for 28 May, Morning Session, Ottawa, Canadian Senate; available online at <http://www.parl.gc.ca/37/1/parlbus/commbus/senate/Com-e/ille-e/03eva-E.htm>. 44.
Free to Choose: A Personal Statement by Milton Friedman, Rose D. Friedman
affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, bank run, banking crisis, Corn Laws, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, German hyperinflation, invisible hand, labour mobility, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, price stability, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, rent control, road to serfdom, school vouchers, Simon Kuznets, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, union organizing, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, urban renewal, War on Poverty, working poor, Works Progress Administration
See Smith, The Russians, and Kaiser, Russia: The People ana the Power. 11. Nick Eberstadt, "China: How Much Success," New York Review of Books, May 3, 1979, pp. 40–41. 12. John Stuart Mill, The Principles of Political Economy (1848), 9th ed. (London: Longmans, Green & Co., 1886), vol. II, p. 332 (Book IV, Chap. VI). CHAPTER 6 1. Leonard Billet, The Free Market Approach to Educational Reform, Rand Paper P-6141 (Santa Monica, Calif.: The Rand Corporation, 1978), pp. 27–28. 2. From The Good Society, as quoted by Wallis in An Over-Governed Society, p. viii. 3. Quoted by E. G. West, "The Political Economy of American Public School Legislation," Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 10 (October 1967), pp. 101–28, quotation from p. 106. 4. Ibid., p. 108. 5. Note the misleading terminology. "Public" is equated with "governmental," though in other contexts, as in "public utilities," "public libraries," and so on, that is not done.
Education Voucher Institute, incorporated in May 1979 in Michigan. 22. Kenneth B. Clark, "Alternative Public School Systems," in the special issue on Equal Educational Opportunity of the Harvard Educational Review, vol. 38, no. 1 (Winter 1968), pp. 100–113; passage cited from pp. 110–11. 23. Daniel Weiler, A Public School Voucher Demonstration: The First Year at Alum Rock, Rand Report No. 1495 (Santa Monica, Calif.: The Rand Corporation, 1974). 24. Henry M. Levin, "Aspects of a Voucher Plan for Higher Education," Occasional Paper 72–7, School of Education, Stanford University, July 1972, p. 16. 25. Carnegie Commission on Higher Education, Higher Education: Who Pays? Who Benefits? Who Should Pay? (McGraw-Hill, June 1973), pp. 2–3. 26. Ibid., p. 4. 27. Ibid., p. 4. 28. Ibid., p. 15. 29. Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, More than Survival: Prospects for Higher Education in a Period of Uncertainty (San Francisco: Jossey Bass Publishers, 1975), p. 7. 30.
Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide by Joshua S. Goldstein
Albert Einstein, Ayatollah Khomeini, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Doomsday Clock, failed state, immigration reform, income inequality, invention of writing, invisible hand, land reform, long peace, microcredit, Mikhail Gorbachev, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, selection bias, Steven Pinker, Tobin tax, unemployed young men, Winter of Discontent, Y2K
The “baseline” of peacekeeping forces worldwide in the post–Cold War era, about 100,000, “has been inadequate for the tasks at hand.” Two recent studies cost out the options for expanding these capabilities. The first, by military policy expert Michael O’Hanlon, finds the costs of a large standby force from industrialized countries would be “very expensive” but “not astronomical.” The second, by the RAND Corporation, finds that costs run ten times higher in a mission that must impose a solution by force compared to one operating with the consent of all parties. For a poor country of 5 million, such as Sierra Leone, a “light peacekeeping” mission needs 8,000 international troops, 1,000 police, and $500 million. A “heavy peace enforcement” mission needs 65,000 tr