distributed generation

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pages: 323 words: 89,795

Food and Fuel: Solutions for the Future by Andrew Heintzman, Evan Solomon, Eric Schlosser

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agricultural Revolution, Berlin Wall, big-box store, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate social responsibility, David Brooks, deindustrialization, distributed generation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, flex fuel, full employment, half of the world's population has never made a phone call, hydrogen economy, land reform, microcredit, Negawatt, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment

Co-ordinating content rather than producing it will become the mantra of power companies in the era of distributed generation. Utility companies, interestingly enough, serve to gain — at least in the short term — from distributed generation, although, until recently, many have fought the development. Because distributed generation is targeted to the very specific energy requirements of the end-user, it is a less costly and more efficient way of providing additional power than relying on a centralized power source. It costs an American company between US$365 and US$1,100 per kilowatt-hour to install a six-mile (ten-kilometre) power line to a three-megawatt customer. A distributed-generation system can meet the same electricity requirements at a cost of between US$400 and US$500 per kilowatt-hour.

After enough fuel cells have been leased or purchased and installed, mini–energy grids can connect urban neighbourhoods as well as rural villages into expanding energy networks. The HEW can be built organically and spread as the distributed generation becomes more widely used. The larger hydrogen fuel cells have the additional advantage of producing pure drinking water as a by-product, a not-insignificant consideration in village communities around the world where access to clean water is often a critical concern. Distributed-generation associations need to be established throughout the developing world. Civil-society organizations, co-operatives (where they exist), micro-credit lending institutions, and local governments ought to view distributed-generation energy webs as the core strategy for building sustainable, self-sufficient communities. Breaking the cycle of dependency and despair, becoming truly “empowered,” starts with access to and control over energy.

It would not have been possible to co-ordinate the increase in speed, pace, flow, density, and interactivity of commercial and social life — made possible by steam power — by relying on script or oral communication technologies. Similarly, the telegraph and, later, the telephone provided forms of communication that were fast enough to accommodate the quickened pace, flow, density, and interactivity made possible when coal gave way to an even more agile hydrocarbon, crude oil. Today, hydrogen and the new fuel-cell, distributed-generation technology are beginning to fuse with the computer and communications revolution to create a wholly new economic era. Before the distributed generation of hydrogen can be fully achieved, however, changes in the existing power grid will have to be made. That’s where the software and communications revolution fits in. Connecting thousands and then millions of fuel cells to main grids will require sophisticated dispatch and control mechanisms to route energy traffic during peak and non-peak periods.

pages: 313 words: 92,907

Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are Thekeys to Sustainability by David Owen

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A Pattern Language, active transport: walking or cycling, big-box store, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, delayed gratification, distributed generation, drive until you qualify, East Village, food miles, garden city movement, hydrogen economy, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, linear programming, McMansion, Murano, Venice glass, Negawatt, New Urbanism, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, placebo effect, Stewart Brand, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Thomas L Friedman, unemployed young men, urban planning, urban sprawl, walkable city, zero-sum game

And if we need to invest in more power plants or increased distribution capacity to meet the needs of a central city, then we should do it, because when growth takes place there we know that energy is being used more efficiently than it could be otherwise.” This is by no means a widely shared belief among environmentalists, who have generally looked upon big utilities with no more affection than they have for big cities. A growing theme in American environmentalism, in fact, has been the encouragement of “distributed generation”—the decentralizing of the production of electricity by supplementing, and in some cases circumventing, the existing power grid through the creation of smaller and more widely dispersed power-generating facilities, including ones that serve individual buildings. A prominent proponent has been Amory Lovins of RMI, who has tantaliz ingly described a future in which automobiles are replaced by hydrogen-powered “hypercars,” and homeowners generate their own electricity with photovoltaic arrays on their roofs and air-conditioner-size hydrogen-powered fuel cells—which generate electricity without combustion—and produce their own hydrogen, with in-home “hydrogen appliances” fed by natural gas.

If just one half of one percent of the U.S. demand for electricity were met by uncontrolled diesel engines, the country’s annual nitrogen oxide emissions could increase by nearly five percent.”33 Lovins and other proponents of decentralizing power production aren’t promoting diesel generators, of course, but most of the small-scale, non-grid energy production in the United States actually is diesel-powered. Large generating plants are inherently more efficient than small generators; they also do less damage to the environment per unit of output, since “fitting plants with best available control technology can be financially feasible on a large scale, but not on a small scale.” Greene and Hammerschlag are by no means dismissive of distributed generation, but their paper repeatedly demonstrates that no idea can be judged apart from its real-world context. Heating New York City apartments with individual woodstoves rather than with steam from Con Ed’s centralized steam distribution system—which supplies most buildings in Manhattan below Ninety-sixth Street, and is used to co-generate electricity—would not be a gain for the environment. The existing American power grid is antiquated, and it is vulnerable to failures like the one that shut down power in the Northeast in 2003, but breaking it apart is unlikely to be the solution, especially if doing so encourages people to live even farther from one another, thereby increasing wastefulness and environmental damage of all kinds.

Heating New York City apartments with individual woodstoves rather than with steam from Con Ed’s centralized steam distribution system—which supplies most buildings in Manhattan below Ninety-sixth Street, and is used to co-generate electricity—would not be a gain for the environment. The existing American power grid is antiquated, and it is vulnerable to failures like the one that shut down power in the Northeast in 2003, but breaking it apart is unlikely to be the solution, especially if doing so encourages people to live even farther from one another, thereby increasing wastefulness and environmental damage of all kinds. Part of the fascination with distributed generation, and with the dream of hydrogen as an energy panacea, arises from our very worst impulses—the same yearnings for personal independence that lead to expressways, strip malls, and sprawl. (What is a car but distributed transportation?) The desire to produce your own power in your own basement is akin to the desire to drive yourself to work and swim in your own pool and play tennis on your own court: to be liberated from the grid is to be liberated from other people.

pages: 433 words: 127,171

The Grid: The Fraying Wires Between Americans and Our Energy Future by Gretchen Bakke

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Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-land, big-box store, Buckminster Fuller, demand response, dematerialisation, distributed generation, energy security, energy transition, full employment, illegal immigration, indoor plumbing, Internet of things, laissez-faire capitalism, Menlo Park, Negawatt, new economy, off grid, post-oil, profit motive, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, smart meter, the built environment, too big to fail, washing machines reduced drudgery, Whole Earth Catalog

People can still put solar up on their garage roofs in Hawaii, but the utility won’t connect to them, won’t pay for the electricity they generate, and won’t offer any kind of deal to homeowners on power consumed after dark. This cycle hadn’t yet reached crisis level in 2009, when Chu was listing the known woes of power companies. It’s at crisis level now. What we are bearing witness to are the early days of a variable and distributed generation revolution. Electricity is being made everywhere, by power producers of all sorts and sizes, and increasingly from uncontrollable and largely unpredictable means. And because of an awkward piece of legislation called the Energy Policy Act (1992), which laid the foundation for the deregulation of the electricity industry, in many places not only have the utilities lost control of who makes power and how and where they make it, but they have also lost the right to own power plants themselves.

And all this new small-power generation was scattered to the four winds—in the river canyons and old mines of the Sierra Nevadas, in the desert outside L.A., in the passes between San Francisco Bay and the Central Valley, even in downtown Sacramento, and almost all of it was variable. It blew with the wind, fell with the water, and warmed with the sun. The utilities quickly found themselves with a plethora of new problems. Never before had they had to deal with variable generation, never before had they had to deal with distributed generation, and never in the seventy years of their existence had they lost control over the production side of their business. At issue wasn’t that they suddenly had to integrate a massive amount of new power but that they weren’t getting to decide how much, where, or when relatively small amounts of electricity would come streaming onto their power lines. They just had to pay for it and distribute it when it got there.

For half a century the daily, quarterly, and annual running of the grid had been accomplished in meetings between the managers of various arms of a utility. Notes were taken, plans made, and later operationalized. In place of this centralized and somewhat perfunctory organizational routine the utilities now needed something like real-time flexibility. Even if the scale was initially modest, the introduction of variable, distributed generation for which they would have to pay a market price was, for the utilities, a little like aliens coming down from outer space and asking them to enter into an intergalactic energy alliance. It’s fine in theory, but unimaginable in its details. Take a simple seeming thing like paying market price. The utilities weren’t exactly clear by the late 1970s how much it actually cost to make a kilowatt-hour of electricity.

pages: 408 words: 85,118

Python for Finance by Yuxing Yan

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asset-backed security, business intelligence, capital asset pricing model, constrained optimization, correlation coefficient, distributed generation, diversified portfolio, implied volatility, market microstructure, P = NP, p-value, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Sharpe ratio, time value of money, value at risk, volatility smile, zero-sum game

Finance 300 The put-call ratio 300 The put-call ratio for a short period with a trend 302 Summary 303 Exercises 304 [ vii ] Table of Contents Chapter 11: Monte Carlo Simulation and Options Generating random numbers from a standard normal distribution Drawing random samples from a normal (Gaussian) distribution Generating random numbers with a seed Generating n random numbers from a normal distribution Histogram for a normal distribution Graphical presentation of a lognormal distribution Generating random numbers from a uniform distribution Using simulation to estimate the pi value Generating random numbers from a Poisson distribution Selecting m stocks randomly from n given stocks Bootstrapping with/without replacements Distribution of annual returns Simulation of stock price movements Graphical presentation of stock prices at options' maturity dates Finding an efficient portfolio and frontier Finding an efficient frontier based on two stocks Impact of different correlations 307 308 309 309 310 310 311 312 313 315 315 317 319 320 322 324 324 326 Constructing an efficient frontier with n stocks 329 Geometric versus arithmetic mean 332 Long-term return forecasting 333 Pricing a call using simulation 334 Exotic options 335 Using the Monte Carlo simulation to price average options 335 Pricing barrier options using the Monte Carlo simulation 337 Barrier in-and-out parity 339 Graphical presentation of an up-and-out and up-and-in parity 340 Pricing lookback options with floating strikes 342 Using the Sobol sequence to improve the efficiency 344 Summary 344 Exercises 345 Chapter 12: Volatility Measures and GARCH Conventional volatility measure – standard deviation Tests of normality Estimating fat tails Lower partial standard deviation Test of equivalency of volatility over two periods Test of heteroskedasticity, Breusch, and Pagan (1979) Retrieving option data from Yahoo!

In particular, we will cover the following topics: • Installation of NumPy and SciPy • Launching Python from Anaconda • Examples of using NumPy and SciPy • Showing all functions in NumPy and SciPy • Getting more information about a specific function • Understanding the list data type • Array in NumPy, logic relationship related to arrays • Working with arrays of ones, zeros, and identity matrix • Performing array operations: +, -, *, and / • The x.sum() dot function • Looping through an array • A list of subpackages for SciPy • Cumulative standard normal distribution • Generating random numbers • Statistic submodule (stats) from SciPy • Interpolation, linear equations, and optimization Introduction to NumPy and SciPy • Linear regression and Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) • Retrieving data from an external text file • Installing NumPy independently • Understanding the data types Installation of NumPy and SciPy In the previous chapter, we discussed the module dependency and how it might be difficult to install a new module because it depends on many other modules.

For example, when evaluating a potential profitable project, we have to predict many factors in the life of the project, such as the annual sales, price of the final product, prices of raw materials, salary increase of employees, inflation rate, cost of borrowing, cost of new equity, and economic status. For those cases, the Monte Carlo simulation could be used to simulate many possible future outcomes, events, and their various combinations. In this chapter, we focus on the applications of the Monte Carlo simulation to price various options. In this chapter, we will cover the following topics: • Generating random numbers from standard normal distribution and normal distribution • Generating random numbers from a uniform distribution • A simple application: estimate pi by the Monte Carlo simulation • Generating random numbers from a Poisson distribution • Bootstrapping with/without replacements • The lognormal distribution and simulation of stock price movements • Simulating terminal stock prices • Simulating an efficient portfolio and an efficient frontier • Using the Monte Carlo simulation to price European options that have closed-form solutions, that is, replicate the Black-Scholes-Merton model • Path independent versus path dependent options • Long term expected return forecast Monte Carlo Simulation and Options • Exotic options • Pricing lookback options with floating strikes • Sobol sequence Generating random numbers from a standard normal distribution Normal distributions play a central role in finance.

pages: 443 words: 112,800

The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World by Jeremy Rifkin

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3D printing, additive manufacturing, Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, borderless world, carbon footprint, centre right, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate governance, decarbonisation, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, global supply chain, hydrogen economy, income inequality, industrial cluster, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, knowledge economy, manufacturing employment, marginal employment, Martin Wolf, Masdar, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, purchasing power parity, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, supply-chain management, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, urban planning, urban renewal, Yom Kippur War, Zipcar

Amory Lovins, in particular, had been raising the prospect for a number of years, as had a number of other power and utility wonks. As early as 2001, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) observed in its report, “Perspectives for the Future,” that distributed generation would likely evolve in much the same way the computer industry has evolved. Large mainframe computers have given way to small, geographically dispersed desktop and laptop machines that are interconnected into fully integrated, extremely flexible networks. In our industry, central-station plants will continue to play an important role, of course. But we’re increasingly going to need smaller, cleaner, widely distributed generators . . . all supported by energy storage technologies. A basic requirement for such a system will be advanced electronic controls: these will be absolutely essential for handling the tremendous traffic of information and power that such a complicated interconnection will bring.42 The IBM guys in Germany put me in touch with Guido Bartels, a Dutch national who was doing a lot of work pushing IBM’s intelligent utility network concept around the world.

In March of 2006, around the same time Kroes was out on the hustings talking up “unbundling,” Utz Claassen, the tough CEO of EnBW, the fourth largest power and utility company in Germany, invited me to Berlin to speak to his company and clients on climate change, energy security, and the transformation of the power and utility sector. Even though 45 percent of EnBW was owned by EDF of France, a company that produces 78 percent of French electricity from nuclear power, Claassen picked up on the theme of distributed generation of renewable energy.46 Three months later, he invited me to Heilbronn, Germany, to address his entire company. Some five hundred employees filled the hall. After I laid out the vision of a Third Industrial Revolution, Claassen took the podium. To the surprise of many of his employees, who had cut their teeth on conventional fossil fuels and nuclear energy and were used to a centralized, top-down flow of power, Claassen said the energy market was changing and so was EnBW.

The late Hermann Scheer, the chairman of the World Council for Renewable Energy and a member of the German Parliament, argued that transporting solar energy over vast distances is inefficient and a waste of money, and that Africa should be focusing its efforts on local generation of renewable energies instead. Greenpeace comes down in the middle on the debate. Sven Teske, Greenpeace’s international renewable energy director, supports Desertec, but with the qualification that it should be developed alongside local renewable energy generation initiatives across the continent.22 The struggle over centralized versus distributed generation of renewable energy is intensifying around the world. For my part, while I don’t oppose some centralized applications of solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass power, they are likely to make up a small portion of the renewable energy generated to power a Third Industrial Revolution economy. The reality is that renewable energies are, by nature, universally distributed, and the new, distributed communication technologies make it possible to harness and store these energies locally and distribute them across intelligent utility networks that span entire continents.

pages: 289 words: 112,697

The new village green: living light, living local, living large by Stephen Morris

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back-to-the-land, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, cleantech, collective bargaining, Columbine, Community Supported Agriculture, computer age, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, discovery of penicillin, distributed generation, energy security, energy transition, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, Firefox, index card, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Kevin Kelly, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, McMansion, Menlo Park, Negawatt, off grid, peak oil, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review

When electricity generation, transmission, and distribution losses are added in, the overall efficiency of the same light bulb at converting the primary energy from the power plant to the actual light that you use in your home has dwindled to just three percent. One way of addressing the inefficiency of power transmission and distribution is through what power companies call “distributed generation.” Distributed generation is where electricity is fed into power lines by small, scattered power plants such as wind mills, solar electric arrays on roof tops, small-scale hydro power, methane captured at farms or landfills, or fossil fuel powered turbines. The energy from these decentralized power sources tends to be used on-site by whoever is producing it, with the excess going out onto the grid for everyone else. Energy security analysts think distributed generation is preferable because reducing the demand on a single, central power plant makes widespread power interruptions less likely. Another way to increase power plant efficiency is by way of co-generation (cogen) also known as combined heat and power (CHP).

Monte Carlo Simulation and Finance by Don L. McLeish

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Black-Scholes formula, Brownian motion, capital asset pricing model, compound rate of return, discrete time, distributed generation, finite state, frictionless, frictionless market, implied volatility, incomplete markets, invention of the printing press, martingale, p-value, random walk, Sharpe ratio, short selling, stochastic process, stochastic volatility, survivorship bias, the market place, transaction costs, value at risk, Wiener process, zero-coupon bond, zero-sum game

This is a modification of the Box-Muller generator designed to avoid the calculation of sin or cos. Here we generate a point (Z1 , Z2 )from the uniform distribution on the unit circle by rejection, generating the point initially from the square −1 · z1 · 1, −1 · z2 · 1 and accepting it when it falls in the unit circle or if z12 + z22 · 1. Now suppose that the points (Z1 , Z2 ) is uniformly distributed GENERATING RANDOM NUMBERS FROM NON-UNIFORM CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS131 inside the unit circle. Then for r > 0, q P [ −2 log(Z12 + Z22 ) · r] = P [Z12 + Z22 ≥ exp(−r2 /2)] 1 − area of a circle of radius exp(−r2 /2) area of a circle of radius 1 = 1 − e−r 2 /2 . This is exactly the same cumulative distribution function as that of the random variable R in Theorem 21. It follows that we can replace R2 by −2log(Z12 +Z22 ).

Of course we can always begin the Markov chain in some arbitrary initial state and run it waiting for Hele to freeze over (it does happen since Helle is in Devon) until we are quite sure that the chain has essentially reachedequilibrium, and then use a subsequent portion of this chain, discarding this initial period, sometimes referred to as the “initial transient”. Clearly this is often not a very efficient method, particularly in cases in which the chain mixes or forgets its past very slowly for in this case the required initial transient is long. On the other hand if we shortened it, we run the risk of introducing bias into our simulations because the distribution generated is too far from the equilibrium distribution π. There are a number of solutions to this problem proposed in a burgeoning literature. Here we limit ourselves to a few of the simpler methods. 178 CHAPTER 3. BASIC MONTE CARLO METHODS Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm The Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm is a method for generating random variables from a distribution π that applies even in the case of an infinite number of states or a continuous distribution π.

Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David Aronson

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Albert Einstein, Andrew Wiles, asset allocation, availability heuristic, backtesting, Black Swan, capital asset pricing model, cognitive dissonance, compound rate of return, computerized trading, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, distributed generation, Elliott wave, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, hindsight bias, index fund, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Long Term Capital Management, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, p-value, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, price stability, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ralph Nelson Elliott, random walk, retrograde motion, revision control, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, riskless arbitrage, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Sharpe ratio, short selling, source of truth, statistical model, systematic trading, the scientific method, transfer pricing, unbiased observer, yield curve, Yogi Berra

Note that there is no need to reposition each rule’s return distribution to be centered over zero as is done with WRC because it assumes that all rules have an expected return of zero. In contrast, the MC sampling distribution’s mean is the expected return of a useless rule in a data-mining venture. If, after randomly assigning rule values to market returns, the sampling distribution is situated at a value greater than zero, so be it. pvalues can be computed directly from the MC generated sampling distribution, just as they would be with a sampling distribution generated by alternative methods. The p-value is the area in the right tail of the distribution that lies at or beyond the back-tested rule’s mean return. A limitation of the MC method compared to WRC is that it cannot be used to generate confidence intervals because it does not test a hypothesis about the rule’s mean return. MC’s null hypothesis is simply that all rules tested have output values that are randomly correlated with future market behavior.

., 403, 433 Herd behavior, 362–369 Heuristic bias, 41, 86–87 availability heuristic, 87–88 heuristic defined, 86 representativeness heuristic, 88–93 illusory trends and patterns and, 93–101 521 Hindsight bias, 50–58 Hong and Stein (HS) hypothesis, 376–377 Hsu, P.-H., 451, 455 Hulbert Digest, 48 Hume, David, 126–128 Hussman, J., 430 Hypotheses, see also Hypothesis tests alternative, 221–225, 394 development of concept of, 128–130 falsifiability and, 130–143 null, 139, 166–172, 221–225, 393 Hypothesis tests: computer-intensive methods of sampling distribution generation, 234–243 confidence intervals contrasted to, 250–252 defined, 217–218 informal inference contrasted, 218–223 mechanics of, 227–234 rationale of, 223–227 Hypothetico-deductive method: stages of, 144–147 technical analysis example, 145–146 Illusory correlations, 72–82 asymmetric binary variables and, 78–80 behavioral psychology and, 81–82 binary variables and, 72 hidden or missing data and, 80 possible outcomes of binary variables and faulty intuition, 73–78 Illusory knowledge, 41–42, 49–50 Imitative behavior, 362–369 522 Immediate practical future: in case study, 393 defined, 186–187 Indicators, in case study, 405–417 interest rate spreads, 417 market breadth indicators, 413–416 price and volume functions, 406–413 prices-of-debt instruments from interest rates, 416–417 Indicator scripting language (ISL), 403–405 Inductive logic, 121–124.

., 467 Scientific method: defined, 103, 332 history of, 103–108 hypothetic-deductive method, 144–147 key aspects of, 147–148 logic and, 111–124 INDEX nature of scientific knowledge and, 108–110 objectification of subjective technical analysis, 148–151 example, 151–161 openness and skepticism in, 143, 225 philosophy of, 124–143 search bias and, 64 Secondhand information bias, 58–61 anchoring and, 360–361 information diffusion and, 365–366 Self-attribution bias, 48–49 DHS hypothesis and, 375–376 Self-interest, secondhand accounts and, 61 Shermer, Michael, 38 Shiller, Robert, 333–334, 365, 366 Shleifer, Andre, 347 Siegel, Jeremy, 84 Signals, 16–18 Simon, Barry, 259 Simon, Herbert, 42 Simplicity, principle of, 107–108, 225–227 Single-rule back-testing, versus data mining, 268–271 Skepticism, 143, 225 Slope of yield curve, 417 Slovic, Paul, 41, 470 Snelson, Jay Stuart, 71 Socioeconomics, 151 Spatial clustering, 100–101 Stale information, 340, 349, 351–354 Standard deviation, 192 Standard error of the mean, 213–215 Statement about reliability of inference, 190 Index Stationary statistical problems, 174, 188 Stationary time series, 19 Statistical analysis: descriptive statistics tools: central tendency measurements, 191 frequency distribution, 190–191 variability (dispersion) measurements, 192–193 inferential statistics: elements of statistical inference problem, 186–190 sampling example, 172–186 three distributions of, 206–207 probability, 193 Law of Large Numbers, 194–195 probability distribution, 200–202 probability distribution of random variables, 197–199 theoretical versus empirical, 196 sampling distribution and, 201–206 classical derivation approach, 209–215 computer-intensive approach, 215 used to counter uncertainty, 165–172 Statistical hypothesis, defined, 220 Statistical inference: data mining and, 272–278 defined, 189 hypothesis tests: computer-intensive methods of sampling distribution generation, 234–243 confidence intervals contrasted to, 250–252 527 defined, 217–218 informal inference contrasted, 218–223 mechanics of, 227–234 rationale of, 223–227 parameter estimation: defined, 217–218 interval estimates, 218, 243, 245–253 point estimates, 218, 243–245 Statistical significance, 23 in case study, 394 statistical significance of observation, 171 statistical significance of test (p-value), 232–234 Stiglitz, J.E., 343, 378 Stochastics, 401–403 Stories, see Secondhand information bias Subjective technical analysis, 5–8, 15–16, 161–163 adoption of scientific method and, 148–151 example, 151–161 chart analysis and, 82–86 confirmation bias and, 62–71 erroneous beliefs and, 33–35 futility of forecasting and, 465–471 heuristic bias and, 86–93 illusion trends and chart patterns, 93–101 human pattern finding and information processing, 39–45 illusory correlations and, 72–82 overconfidence bias and, 45–58 secondhand information bias and, 58–61 as untestable and not legitimate knowledge, 35–38 528 Syllogisms: categorical, 112–115 conditional, 115–116 invalid forms, 118–121 valid forms, 117–118 Taleb, Nassim, 337 Technical analysis (TA), 9–11.

pages: 525 words: 142,027

CIOs at Work by Ed Yourdon

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8-hour work day, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, business intelligence, business process, call centre, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, distributed generation, Donald Knuth, Flash crash, Googley, Grace Hopper, Infrastructure as a Service, Innovator's Dilemma, inventory management, Julian Assange, knowledge worker, Mark Zuckerberg, Nicholas Carr, rolodex, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, software as a service, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the new new thing, the scientific method, WikiLeaks, Y2K, Zipcar

They receive information about the exact location of the outage to save time. In addition, the analytics can be shared with out call center. The customers don’t even have to call us. We can call them and say, “A pole in your area has been damaged. Crews are on site and repair should be complete soon.” All of that is coming in the very near future. And the other thing is that in the future there will be a lot more distributed generation. For example, there may be customers that are generating their own power through solar panels. We’re putting smart meters on everyone’s home so we can tell them—in the future—how much electricity they’re using at different times of the day. If customers want to be more efficient, these smart meters have the intelligence to tell them when they’re using a lot and determine what it is that’s driving usage up.

., 87 Arizona Public Service (APS) Company, 66, 211, 223 Arizona State University, 227 ARPANET, 19, 117, 135 Art of Computer Programming, 2 Atlanta-based Southern Company, 191 AT&T, 191, 249 B Ballmer, Steve, 39 Bank of Boston, 47 Baylor-Grapevine Board of Trustees, 47 Bedrock foundation, 249 Bell Atlantic Mobile, 231 Bell Labs, 2, 249 BlackBerry, 60, 96, 116, 121, 171, 184, 246, 261, 296, 317 Blalock, Becky, 182, 191, 215 adaptability, 192 Air Force brat, 191, 192 Atlanta-based Southern Company, 191 banking industry, 203 Boucher, Marie, 196 brainstorm, 202 24/7 business, 199 business intelligence, 204 cloud computing, 205 cognitive surplus, 206 cognitive time, 206 Coker, Dave, 196 communication and education, 200 Community and Economic Development, 194 consumer market, 202 cybersecurity, 207, 209 data analytics, 204, 205 disaster recovery, 209 distributed generation, 204 distribution organization, 201 Egypt revolution, 198 farming technology, 206 finance backgrounds/marketing, 200, 209 Franklin, Alan, 193 Georgia Power, 191 Georgia Power Management Council, 193 global society, 206 Google, 198 incredible technology, 195 Industrial Age, 206 Information Age, 206 InformationWeek's, 196 infrastructure, 202 intellectual property, 196 intelligence and redundancy, 207 Internet, 198, 206 leapfrog innovations, 205 mainframe system, 207 marketing and customer service, 193, 200 MBA, finance, 192 microfiche, 207 microwave tower, 207 mobile devices, 203 mobility and business analytics, 205 Moore's Law, 205 new generation digital natives, 197 flexible and adaptable, 199 innovation and creativity, 199 superficial fashion, 198 Olympic sponsor, 193 out pushing technology, 202 reinforcement, 201 sense of integrity, 200 Southern Company, 194, 198, 201, 207 teamwork survey, 201 technology lab, 202 undergraduate degree, marketing, 192 virtualization, 205 VRU, 203 Ward, Eileen, 196 wire business, 201 world-class customer service, 203 Bohlen, Ken, 211 American Production Inventory Control Society, 211 Apple, 217 APS, 211, 223 ASU, 227 benchmarking company, 216 chief innovation officer, 229 Citrix, 217 cloud computing, 218, 219 cognitive surplus, 220 DECnet, 212 Department of Defense, 222 distributed computing, 217 energy industry, 214 gizmo/whiz-bang show, 216 GoodLink, 217 hard-line manufacturing, 218 home computing, 219 home entertainment, 219 Honeywell, 219 HR generalists, 215 information technology department, 211 Intel machines, 217 John Deere, 213 just say yes program, 223 Lean Six Sigma improvement process, 211 Linux, 220 MBA program, 214 mentors, 213 national alerts, 224 North American universities, 228 paradigm shifts, 218, 220 PDP minicomputers, 212 Peopleware, 226 prefigurative culture, 221 R&D companies, 218 Rhode Island, 226 role models, 213 San Diego Fire Department, 224 security/privacy issues, 217 skip levels, 223 smart home concepts, 219 smartphone, 217 social media, 225 Stead, Jerry, 214 Stevie Award, 211 Storefront engineering, 212 traditional management, 219, 226 Twitter, 224 vocabulary, 221 Waterloo operations, 213 Web 2.0 companies, 227 Web infrastructure, 215 wikipedia, 220 Y2K, 222 Botnets, 23 Brian's and Rob Pike's, 2 Bristol-Myers Squibb, 33 Broadband networks, 241 Brown, 227 Bryant, 227 BT Global Services, 253 BT Innovate & Design (BTI&D), 253 Bumblebee tuna, 130 C Career writing technology, 67 CASE tools, 232 Cash, Jim, 50 Christensen, Clyde, 212 Chrome, 14, 18 Chrysler Corporation, 175 Citibank, 337 Citicorp, 313 Citrix, 217 Client-server-type applications, 59 Cloud computing, 218, 219, 239, 240, 261, 262, 310, 311, 313 Cloud technology, 62 CNN, 54 COBOL, 250 Cognitive surplus, 20, 79, 206, 291 College of Engineering, University of Miami, 113 Columbia University, 1 Community and Economic Development, 194 Computer Sciences Corporation, 35 Computerworld magazine, 196 Consumer-oriented technology, 22 Content management system, 133 Corporate information management (CIM) program, 309 Corporate Management Information Systems, 87 Corvus disk drive, 36 Customer Advisory Boards of Oracle, 191 Customer-relationship management (CRM), 56 Cutter Business Technology Council, 173 D Dallas Children's Medical Center Development Board, 48 DARPA, 19 DDoS attacks and security, 81 DECnet, 212 Dell Platinum Council, 113 DeMarco, Tom, 16, 226 Department of Defense, 222, 329, 332 Detroit Energy, 252 Digital books, 30 Digital Equipment, 48 Distributed computing, 217 Dodge, 189 Dogfooding, 11, 37, 38, 236 DTE Energy, 173 DuPont Dow Elastomers, 151 E Educational Testing Service (ETS), 151 E-government, 282, 285 Electrical distribution grid, 182 Elementary and Secondary Education Strategic Business Unit, 151 Elements of Programming Style, 2 Ellyn, Lynne, 173 advanced technology software planning, 175 Amazon, 184 artificial intelligence group, 175 Association for Women in Computing, 173 benchmark, 180, 181 BlackBerries, 184 Burns, Ursula, 175 Chrysler, 176 Cisco, 186 cloud computing, 183, 184 component-based architecture, 186 corporate communications customer service, 185 Crain's Detroit Business, 173 cyber security threats, 177 degree of competence, 187 diversity and sophistication, 182 DTE Energy, 173 energy trading, 176 engineering and science programs, 188 enterprise business systems policy, 186 executive MBA program, 176 Facebook, 185 fresh-out-of-the-university, 187 General Electric, 174 Google, 184 Grace Hopper, 174 grid re-automation, 182 Henry Ford Hospital, 174 internal social media, 185 International Coaching Federation, 178 iPads, 184 IP electrical grids, 182 iPod applications, 182 IT budgets, 186 IT responsibilities, 176 Java, 186 level of sophistication, 179 lobbying efforts, 181 medical computing, 175 Miller, Joan, 174 Mulcahey, Anne, 175 Netscape, 175 neuroscience leadership, 189 object-oriented programming, 186 Oracle, 186 peer-level people, 179 people system, 177 policies and strategies, 180 Radio Shack, 180 remote access capacity, 189 security tool and patch, 183 sense of community, 180 Shipley, Jim, 174 smart grid, 177, 182 smart meters, 182 smart phone applications, 183 swarming, 179 technical competence, 178, 179 Thomas, Marlo, 174 Twitter, 185 UNITE, 181 vendor community, 186 virtualization, 183, 184 Xerox, 175 E-mail, 9 Employee-relationship management (ERM), 56 Encyclopedia, 115 Encyclopedia Britannica, 292 ERP, 123 F Facebook, 244 Ellyn, Lynne, 185 Sridhara, Mittu, 73, 84 Temares, Lewis, 116, 121, 131 Wakeman, Dan, 169 Federal information technology investments, 299 Flex, 236 Ford, 102 Ford, Monte, 47 agile computing, 59 agile development, 62, 66 airplanes, 51 American Airlines, 47 Arizona Public Services, 66 Bank of Boston, 47 Baylor-Grapevine Board of Trustees, 47 BlackBerry, 60 board of Chubb, 51 board of Tandy, 51 business organizations, 63 business school, dean, 50 career writing technology, 67 client-server-type applications, 59 cloud technology, 62 CNN, 54 common-sense functionality, 49 consumer-based technology, 60 CRM, 56 Dallas Children's Medical Center Development Board, 48 Digital Equipment, 48 ERM, 56 financial expert, 69 frequent-flier program, 57 frontal lobotomy, 57 Harvard Business Review, 50 HR policies, 65 IBM, 48 information technology, 47, 52 Internet, 54 Internet-based protocol, 59 iPhone, 52 IT stuff, 58 Knight Ridder, 51 legacy apps, 59 mainframe-like applications, 59 management training program, 64 marketing and technical jobs, 48 Maynard, Massachusetts mill, 48 MBA program, 50 mentors, 49 Microsoft, 50 mobile computing, 62 New York Times, 53 operations center, 54 PDP-5, 49 PDP-6, 49 Radio Shack, 51 revenue management, 57 role models, 49 security paradigms, 62 self-service machine, 57 Silicon Valley companies, 68 smartphones, 54 social networking, 51, 53, 56, 58 stateful applications, 59 techie department, 48 The Associates First Capital Corporation, 47 transmission and distribution companies, 47 wireless network, 59 YouTube, 65 Fort Worth, 226 Free software foundation, 19 Fried, Benjamin, 1, 241 agile development, 25 agile methodologies, 26 Apple Genius Bar, 8 ARPANET, 19 Art of Computer Programming, 2 Bell Labs, 2 books and records, accuracy, 25 botnets, 23 Brian's and Rob Pike's, 2 cash-like principles, 29 CFO, 4 check writers, 18 chrome, 14, 18 classic computer science text, 1 cognitive surplus, 20 Columbia University, 1 compensation management, 7 competitive advantage, 9, 18 computer science degree, 1 computer scientists, 6 consumer-driven computing, 12 consumer-driven software-as-a-service offerings, 12 consumer-driven technology, 12 consumer-oriented technology, 14, 22 corporate leadership, 25 cost centers, 4 DARPA, 19 decision makers, 17 decision making, 13 360-degree performance management, 7 detroit energy, 30 digital books, 30 document workbench, 2 dogfooding, 11 e-books, 29 Elements of Programming Style, 2 e-mail, 9 end-user support, 7 engineering executive group, 4 European vendors, 6 file servers and print servers, 17 Folger Library editions, 30 free software foundation, 19 German company, 13 German engineering, 13 Gmail, 15 Godot, 26 Google, 1 books, 29 products, 5, 10 software engineers, 6 hiring managers, 6 HR processes and technologies, 6 IBM model, 13 instant messaging, 9 Internet age, 6 interviewers, training, 6 iPad, 29 iPhone, 29 IPO, 3 IT, engineering and computer science parts, 4 Knuth's books, 2 Linux machine, 8 Linux software, 19 machine running Windows, 8 Macintosh, 8 Mac OS, 9 macro factors, 11 Managing Director, 1 mentors, 1 microcomputers, 18 Microsoft, 5 Minds for Sale, 20 Morgan Stanley, 1–3, 5, 16 nonacademic UNIX license, 2 nontechnical skills, 5 oil exploration office, 17 open-source phone operating system, 20 outlook, 15 PARC, 19 performance review cycles, 7 personal computer equipment, 15 post-Sarbanes-Oxley world, 25 project manager, 13 quants, 24 rapid-release cycle, 26 R&D cycle, 24 regression testing, 27 role models, 1 shrink-wrapped software, 14 signature-based anti-virus, 22 smartphone, 20, 27 social contract, 8 society trails technology, 21 software engineering tool, 13 software installation, 14 supply chain and inventory and asset management, 10 SVP, 4 telephony, 17 ten things, 13 TMRC, 19 TROFF, 2 typesetter workbench, 2 UI designer, 14 university computing center, 28 videoconferencing, 12 Visicalc, 24 Wall Street, 23 Walmart, 6 waterfall approach, 25 XYZ widget company, 5 YouTube video, 20 G Gates, Bill, 39, 50 General Electric, 134 General Foods, 309, 326–328 General Motors, 33, 321, 329, 332 George Mason School of Information Technology, 309 Georgia Power Company, 191–193, 196 Georgia Power Management Council, 193 German company, 13 German engineering, 13 German manufacturing company, 232 Gizmo/whiz-bang show, 216 Gmail, 15 GoodLink, 217 Google, 1, 84, 85, 117, 217, 219, 220, 222, 235, 241, 263, 302, 319 apps, 314 books, 29 commercial products, 10 model, 293 Government Accountability Office (GAO), 305 4G program, 250 4G smartphone, 235 GTE, 231 Gupta, Ashish aspiration, organization, 256 bandwidth and network infrastructure, 267 BlackBerry, 261 business and customer outcomes, 274 capital investment forums, 269 career progression, 255 cloud-based shared infrastructure model, 263 cloud computing, 261, 262 collaboration, 272 communications infrastructure, 258 compute-utility-based model, 262 control and integrity, 268 core competency, 255 core network infrastructure, 267 core strengths, 256 cost per unit of bandwidth, 267 customer demands, 268 data protection, 261, 262 decision-making bodies, 269 demographics, 272, 273 device convergence, 263 dogfooding, 259 employee flexibility, 260, 264 engagement and governance, 269 enterprise market segment, 261 equipment management, 260 executive MBA, 256 fourth-generation LTE networks, 267 functional service departments, 270 Global Services, distributed organization, 257 Google, 263, 275 Google Apps, 266 handheld devices, 265 hastily formed networks, 258 IMF, 266 innovation and application development, 265 iPad, 257, 260, 261, 266,267 iPhone, 266 Japan, 257, 258 London Business School, 253 management functions, 257 management sales functions, 257 market segments, 259 MBA, General Management, 253 measurements, 271 messaging with voice capability, 264 mini-microcomputer model, 261 mobile communications network, 258 mobile-enabling voice, 259 mobile phone network, 260 mobile traffic explosion, 265 network infrastructures, 265 network IT services, 254 network quality, 257 new generation digital natives, 271 disadvantages, 273 Google, 273 opportunities, 273 Olympics, 263 opportunities, 275 organizational construct, 272 outsourced network IT services, 259 outsourcing, 271 per-use-based model, 262 portfolio and business alignment, 274 Portfolio & Service Design (P&SD), 253 primary marketing thrust, 264 product development thrust, 264 product management team, 259 project and program management, 255 resource balance, 270 scalability, 262 security, 262 Selley, Clive, 254, 255 service delivery organization, 254 single-device model, 264 smart devices, 267 smart phones, 266 telecommunications capability, 259 upward-based apps, 264 virtualization, 261 voice-over-IP connections, 258 Windows platform, 261 Gurnani, Roger, 231 accounting/finance department, 233 analog cellular networks, 250 AT&T, 249 bedrock foundation, 249 Bell Atlantic Mobile, 231 Bell Labs, 249 blogs, 244 broadband networks, 241 business benefits, 237 business device, 240 business executives, 238 business leaders, 248, 249 business relationship management, 248 buzzword, 239 CASE tools, 232 cloud computing, 239, 240 COBOL, 250 consumer and business products, 231 consumer electronics devices, 241 consumer telecom business, 233 customer-engagement channel, 244 customer forums, 244 customer support operations, 251 customer-touching channels, 236 degree of control, 246 distribution channel, 250 dogfooding, 236 ecosystem, 243, 249 enterprise business, 233 ERP systems, 236 face-to-face communications, 244 FiOS product, 235 flex, 236 "follow the sun" model, 239 German manufacturing company, 232 4G program, 250 4G smartphone, 235 hardware/software vendors, 247 information assets, 245 information technology strategy, 231 intellectual property rights, 244 Internet, 235, 239 iPhone, 243 Ivan, 232 Lowell, 232 LTE technology-based smartphone, 235 marketing, 251 MIT, 246 mobile technology, 234 Moore's law, 242 MP3 file, 235 network-based services, 240 Nynex Mobile, 233 P&L responsibility, 251 PDA, 238 personal computing, 235 product development, 234, 251 role models, 232 sales channels, 251 smartphones, 238 state-level regulatory issues, 251 state-of-the-art networks, 243 telecom career, 232 telephone company, Phoenix, 234 Verizon Communication, 231, 232 virtual corporations, 241 Web 2.0, 244 Williams Companies, 232, 233 WillTell, 233 wireless business, 233 H Hackers, 19 Harmon, Jay, 213 Harvard Business Review, 50 Harvard Business School, 331 Heller, Martha, 171 Henry Ford Hospital, 174 Hewlett-Packard piece, 129 Home computing, 219 Honda, 102 Honeywell, 219 Houghton Mifflin, 134, 136 I IBM, 48, 250 manpower, 311 model, 13 Indian IT outsourcing company, 255 Information technology, 52 Intel machines, 217 International Coaching Federation, 178 Internet, 9, 44, 54, 117, 235, 239, 316, 322 Internet-based protocol, 59 Interoperability, 341 iPads, 2, 94, 97, 184, 257, 260, 264, 267, 288, 289, 295, 296 IP electrical grids, 182 iPhones, 43, 52, 96, 101, 170, 181, 260, 264,296 iPod, 101 IT lifecycle management process, 37 Ivan, 232 J John Deere, 213 K Kansas, 226 Kernigan, Brian, 2 Knight Ridder, 51 Knuth, Donald, 2, 29 Kraft Foods Inc, 309 Krist, Nicholas, 28 Kundra, Vivek Clever Commute, 305 cognitive surplus, 303 command and control systems, 301 consumerization, 302 consumption-based model, 300 cyber-warfare, 301 Darwinian pressure, 302 desktop core configuration, 306 digital-borne content, 301 digital oil, 300, 307 digital public square, 304 enterprise software, 303 entrepreneurial startup model, 306 frugal engineering, 306 Google, 302 government business, 302 innovator's dilemma, 307 iPad, 302 IT dashboard, 302 leapfrog technology, 306 massive consumerization, 301 megatrends, 301 parameter security, 302 Patent Office, 305 pharmaceutical industry, 304 phishing attacks, 301 policy and strategic planning, 299 security and privacy, 301 server utilization, 300 social media and technology, 300, 306 storage utilization, 300 Trademark Office, 305 Wikipedia, 303 L LAN, 259 Lean Six Sigma improvement process, 211 Levy, Steven (Hackers), 19 Linux, 220 machine, 8 open-source software, 19 Lister, Tim, 226 London Business School, 73, 253, 256 Long-term evolution (LTE), 235 Lowell, 232 M MacArthur's intelligence officer, 327 Macintosh, 8 Mainframe computers, 118 Mainframe-like applications, 59 Marriott's Great America, 35 McDade, 327 McGraw-Hill Education, 133, 147, 150 Mead, Margaret, 221 Mendel, 311 Microcomputers, 18 Microsoft Corporation, 5, 11, 33, 36, 38, 41, 44, 46, 50, 156, 217, 223, 236, 250, 293 Microsoft Higher Education Advisory Group, 113 Microsoft's operational enterprise risk management, 33 Middlesex University, 189 Miller, Joan Apple products, 295 authority and accuracy, 292 award-winning ICT programs and services, 277 back locked-down information, 289 big-scale text issues, 294 big-time computing, 279 BlackBerry, 296 business management training, 281 business skills, 281 central government, 283 cognitive surplus, 291 community care project, 278 community development programs, 277, 278 computers, constituency office, 294 confidential information, 284 data management, 281 decision making, 286 democratic process, 288 economics degree, 278 e-government, 282, 285 electronic communication, 289 electronic-enabled public voice, 286 electronic information, 288 electronic media, 286 electronic records, 280, 284 electronic services, 294 e-mail, 289, 290, 295 forgiving technology, 296 front-office service, 282, 283 Google, 292 Google's cloud service, 290 Government 2, 287 Health and Social Care, 284 House business, 294 House of Lords, 288 ICT strategy, 289, 290 information management, 278 insurance company, 278 Internet information, 285 iPad, 288, 289, 296 IT data management, 279 management principle, 280 local government, 283 mainframe environment, 289 member-led activity, 287 messages, 289 Microsoft, 293 Microsoft's cloud service, 290 mobile electronic information, 284 mobile technology, 289 national organization, 284 network perimeters, 290 official government information, 285 on-the-job training, 281 organizational planning, 278 Parliamentary ICT, 277 project management, 279 public sector, 282 public transportation, 285 quango-type organizations, 283 representational democracy, 286 security, 290, 291 social care organization, 279 social care services, Essex, 278 social care systems, 284 social networking, 285 sovereignty, 291 sustainability and growth, 293 technical language, 294 technology skills, 281 transactional services, 285 transferability, 291 Web-based services, 285 Wikipedia, 291, 292 X-factor, 286 Minds for Sale, 20 Mitchell & Co, 333 MIT Media Labs, 149 Mobile computing, 62 Mobile technology, 234 Mooney, Mark, 133 artificial intelligence, 134 back-office legacy, 136 balancing standpoint, 145 BBC, 140 Bermuda Triangle, 135 BlackBerry shop, 142 Bureau of National Standards, 136 business model, 140 career spectrum, 144 cloud computing, 148 competitive intelligence and knowledge, 143 Connect, 141 customer-facing and product development, 135 customer-facing product space, 137 customer space and product development, 136 digital products development, 144 digital space and product, 146 educational and reference content, 139 educational products, 141 entrepreneur, 150 General Electric, 134 GradeGuru, 140 handheld devices, 142 hard-core technical standpoint, 146 hardware servers, 142 Houghton Mifflin, 134, 136 HTML, 138 industrial-strength product, 141 intellectual content, 148 Internet, 148 iPad, 138, 139, 142 iPhone, 142, 143 iTunes, 138 Klein, Joel, 147 learning management systems, 137 long-term production system, 141 Marine Corps, 134 McGraw-Hill Education, 133, 147 media development, 144 media space, 138, 142 mobile computing, 139 MOUSE, 150 online technology, 138 open-source capabilities, 142 Oracle quota-management system, 143 people's roles and responsibilities, 137 Phoenix, 149 product development, 149 publishing companies, 142 publishing systems, 137 Reed Elsevier, 133, 136 Salesforce.com, 144, 149 scalability testing, 145 senior business leaders, 146 social network, 148 soft discipline guidelines, 141 solar energy, 149 Strassmann, Paul, 135 technical skill set, 143, 144 testing systems integration, 145 The Shallows, 139 transactional systems, 142 trust and integrity, 145 TTS, QuickPro, and ACL, 144 Vivendi Universal, 134 War and Peace today, 139 Moore's law, 242 Morgan Stanley, 2, 3, 16 N NASA, 309, 333, 334 National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), 173 Naval Postgraduate School, 134 Netscape, 175 New Brunswick model, 282 News Corp., 147 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), 87, 116, 223, 278 New York Times, 53 North American universities, 228 NSA/CIA software, 134 Nynex Mobile, 233 O Oil exploration office, 17 Open-source phone operating system, 20 Outlook, 15 P Pacer Software, 135 Paradigm shifts, 218, 220 Parks and Recreation Department, 126 PDP minicomputers, 212 Peopleware, 226 Personal computing, 235 Personal digital assistant (PDA), 238 Petri dish, 44 Phoenix, 211 Plauger, Bill, 2 Q Quants, 24 R Radio Shack, 51 Reed Elsevier, 133, 136 Reed, John, 335 Rubinow, Steve, 87 AdKnowledge, Inc., 87 agile development, 110 Agile Manifesto, 110 Archipelago Holdings Inc., 87 attributes, 108 capital market community, 91 cash/actual trading business, 88 channel marketing departments, 92 cloud computing, 97 CNBC, 89 collaborative technology, 95 collective intelligence, 95 communication skills, 102, 106 conference organizations, 99 consumer marketplace, 94 data center, 90 decision making, 105, 108 economy standpoint, 100 e-mail, 100 Fidelity Investments, 105 financial services, 92 IEEE, 101 innovative impression, 94 Internet, 98 iPad, 97 iPod device, 91 labor laws, 110 listening skills, 106 logical progression, 104 Mac, 96 mainframe, 104 management and leadership, 104, 105 market data system, 89 micro-second response time, 89 mobile applications, 94 multidisciplinary approach, 103 multimedia, 97 multi-national projects, 110 multiprocessing options, 99 network operating system, 103 NYSE Euronext, 87 open outside system, 88 parallel programming models, 99 personal satisfaction, 109 PR function, 106 proclaimed workaholic, 109 real estate business, 88 regulatory and security standpoint, 96 Rolodex, 94 Rubin, Howard, 99 server department, 97 software development, 89 sophisticated technology, 101 technology business, 88 technology integration, 91 trading engines, 90 typewriter ribbon, 94 virtualization, 98 Windows 7, 96 younger generation video games, 93 visual interfaces, 93 Rumsfeld, Donald, 222 S San Diego Fire Department, 224 Santa Clara University, 36 SAS programs, 131 Scott, Tony, 10, 33, 236 Android, 43 Apple Computer, 35 architectural flaw, 44 BASIC and Pascal, 35 Bristol-Myers Squibb, 33 Bunch, Rick (role model), 34 business groups, 42 COO, 39 Corporate Vice President, 33 Corvus disk drive, 36 CSC, 35 Defense department, 45 dogfooding, 37, 38 games and arcades, 35 General Motors, 33 IBM's role, 37 information systems management, 36 integrity factor, 40 Internet, 44 iPhone, 43 IT lifecycle management process, 37 leadership capability, 40 leisure studies, 34 macro-architectural threats, 44 Marriott's Great America, 35 math models, 36 Microsoft Corporation, 33, 36, 38, 41, 44, 46 Microsoft's operational enterprise risk management, 33 parks and recreation, 34 Petri dish, 44 playground leader, 42 product groups, 42 quality and business excellence team, 33 Santa Clara University, 36 Senior Vice President, 33 smartphone, 43 social computing, 38 Sun Microsystems, 36 theme park industry, 35 University of Illinois, 34 University of San Francisco, 36 value-added business, 33 Walt Disney Company, 33 Senior Leadership Technology and Product Marketing, 71 Shakespeare, 30 Shirky, Clay, 220 Sierra Ventures, 191 Silicon Valley companies, 68 Silicon Valley software factories, 323 Skype, 118 Smart Grid Advisory Committee, 177 Smartphones, 20, 27, 43, 54, 217, 238 Social care computer electronic record system, 279 Social computing, 38, 320 Social networking, 51, 53, 56, 58 Society trails technology, 21 SPSS programs, 131 Sridhara, Mittu, 71 Amazon, 76 American Airlines, 72 back-end computation and presentation, 80 banking, 77 B2B and B2C, 85 business/product departments, 82 business work context, 74 buzzword, 77 career aspiration, 73 career spans, 73 coders, 72 cognitive surplus, 79 competitive differentiation, 74 computing power, 78 contribution and energy, 85 convergence, 75 CPU cycles, 78 cross-channel digital business, 71 cultural and geographic implementation, 72 customer experience, 84, 85 customer profile, 76 data visualization, 79, 80 DDoS protection, 81 economies of scale, 77 elements of technology, 72 encryption, 82 end customer, 83 entertainment, 75 ERP system, 72 Facebook, 84 finance and accounting, 73 foster innovation and open culture, 81 friends/mentors/role models, 74 FSA, 76 gambling acts, 81 games, 79 gaming machines, 80 GDS, 72 global organization, 71 Google, 75, 84, 85 Group CIO, Ladbrokes PLC, 71 industry-standard technologies, 77 integrity and competence, 83 IT, 74, 82 KickOff app, 71 land-based casinos, 79 live streaming, 78 London Business School, 73 mobile computing, 78 multimedia, 84 new generation, 84 on-the-job training, 73 open-source computing, 79 opportunity, 80, 83 PCA-compliant, 81 personalization, 76 real-time systems, 74 re-evaluation, 81 reliability and availability, 77 security threats, 80 smart mobile device, 75 technology-intense customer, 85 top-line revenue, 74 trader apps, 82 true context, 73 underpinning business process, 76 virtualization, 78 Visa/MasterCard transactions, 78 Web 3.0 business, 76 web-emerging web channel, 76 Wikipedia, 79, 85 Word documents and e-mail, 82 work-life balance, 84 young body with high miles, 72 Zuckerberg, Mark, 73 Stead, Jerry, 214 Storefront engineering, 212 Strassmann, Paul, 228, 309 agile development, 340 Amazon EC2, 314 America information processors, 322 Annapolis, 340 AT&T, 332 backstabbing culture, 339 BlackBerry, 317 block houses, 319 CFO/CEO position, 337 CIM program, 309 Citibank, 337 Citicorp, 313, 339 cloud computing, 310, 311, 313 coding infrastructure, 341 communication infrastructure, 341 corporate information management, 329 Corporate Information Officer, 309 counterintelligence, 320 cyber-operations, 338 Dell server, 314 Department of Defense, 329, 332 Director of Defense Information, 309 employee-owned technology, 316 enterprise architecture, 316 exfiltration, 313 financial organizations, 320 firewalls and antiviruses, 312 General Foods, 309, 326–328 General Motors, 321, 329, 332 George Mason School of Information Technology, 309 Google apps, 314 government-supported activities, 326 Harvard Business School, 331 HR-related issues, 331 IBM manpower, 311 infiltration, 313 Internet, 316, 322 interoperability, 315, 317, 341 Kraft Foods Inc, 309 MacArthur's intelligence officer, 327 Machiavellian view, 327 mash-up, 316 military service, 331 NASA, 309, 333, 334 police department, economics, 312 powerpoint slides, 324 Radio Shack, 319 senior executive position, 334 service-oriented architecture, 316 Silicon Valley software factories, 323 social computing, 320 Strassmann's concentration camp, 318 structured methodologies, 342 U.S.

pages: 443 words: 51,804

Handbook of Modeling High-Frequency Data in Finance by Frederi G. Viens, Maria C. Mariani, Ionut Florescu

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algorithmic trading, asset allocation, automated trading system, backtesting, Black-Scholes formula, Brownian motion, business process, continuous integration, corporate governance, discrete time, distributed generation, fixed income, Flash crash, housing crisis, implied volatility, incomplete markets, linear programming, mandelbrot fractal, market friction, market microstructure, martingale, Menlo Park, p-value, pattern recognition, performance metric, principal–agent problem, random walk, risk tolerance, risk/return, short selling, statistical model, stochastic process, stochastic volatility, transaction costs, value at risk, volatility smile, Wiener process

X ∼ GHd (λ, χ , ψ, μ, , γ ): 1 φX (t) = E(E(exp(it X )|W )) = E exp it μ + W t γ − W t t 2 t t − it γ , = exp(it μ)H 2 (θ) = E(e−θ W ) is the Laplace transform of the density function h of W . where H With the help of the characteristic function, we can show that GH distributions are closed under linear transformations. PROPOSITION 7.5 If X ∼ GHd (λ, χ , ψ, μ, , γ ) and Y = BX + b, where B ∈ Rk×d and b ∈ Rk , then Y ∼ GHk (λ, χ , ψ, Bμ + b, BB , Bγ ). Proof . i t (BX +b) φY (t) = E(e it b )=e i t (Bμ+b) φX (B t) = e H t BB t − it Bγ . 2 This proposition shows that linear transformations of GH distributions remain in the class of GH distributions generated by the same GIG distribution N − (λ, χ , ψ), which is a useful property in portfolio management. COROLLARY 7.6 If B = ω = (ω1 , . . . , ωd ) and b = 0, then y = ω X is a one-dimensional GH distribution, and y ∼ GH1 (λ, χ , ψ, ω μ, ω ω, ω γ ). More specifically, the margins of X is X i ∼ GH1 (λ, χ , ψ, μi , ii , γi ). 170 CHAPTER 7 Risk Forecasting with Multiple Timescales This corollary shows that the method used in portfolio risk management based on multivariate normal distribution is also applicable to GH distribution.

X are E(X ) = μ + γ cov(X ) = ν , ν−2 2ν 2 ν + γγ , ν −2 (ν − 2)2 (ν − 4) (7.17) (7.18) where the covariance matrix is only defined when ν > 4. Moreover, when γ = 0, the skewed t distribution degenerates into the Student t distribution. As implied by its name, an inverse gamma r.v. is the inverse of a gamma r.v. Together with the mean–variance mixture definition, we can generate a skewed t r.v. accordingly. 171 7.2 The Skewed t Distributions ALGORITHM 7.8 1. 2. 3. 4. Simulation of the Skewed t Distribution. Generate Y from a Gamma( ν2 , ν2 ) distribution. Set W = Y −1 . By definition, W ∼ InverseGamma( ν2 , ν2 ). Generate a d-dimensional normal random vector Z ∼ Nd (0, Id ). Let √ X = μ + W γ + W AZ . Then X ∼ SkewT (ν, μ, , γ ). Other subfamilies of the GH distribution include Hyperbolic Distributions If λ = (d + 1)/2, we refer to the distribution as a d-dimensional hyperbolic distribution. If λ = 1, we get the multivariate distribution whose univariate margins are one-dimensional hyperbolic distributions.

pages: 565 words: 151,129

The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism by Jeremy Rifkin

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3D printing, active measures, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-land, big-box store, bioinformatics, bitcoin, business process, Chris Urmson, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, crowdsourcing, demographic transition, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, Frederick Winslow Taylor, global supply chain, global village, Hacker Ethic, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labour mobility, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, mass immigration, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, new economy, New Urbanism, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, phenotype, planetary scale, price discrimination, profit motive, QR code, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Stallman, risk/return, Ronald Coase, search inside the book, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, social web, software as a service, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, the built environment, The Nature of the Firm, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, transaction costs, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, WikiLeaks, working poor, zero-sum game, Zipcar

Bok, Derek. The Politics of Happiness. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010. Bollier, David. Silent Theft: The Private Plunder of Our Common Wealth. New York: Rutledge, 2003. ———. Viral Spiral. New York: The New Press, 2008. Bonpasse, Morrison. The Single Global Currency. Newcastle, ME: Single Global Currency Association, 2006. Borbely, Anne-Marie and Jan F. Kreider. Distributed Generation: The Power Paradigm for the New Millennium. Washington DC: CRC Press, 2001. Botsman, Rachel and Roo Rogers. What’s Mine Is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption. New York: HarperCollins, 2010. Boyle, James. Cultural Environmentalism and Beyond. San Francisco: Creative Commons, 2007. Brewer, Richard. Conservancy: The Land Trust Movement in America. Hanover, NH: Dartmouth College Press, 2003.

Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Lexington, MA: Digital Frontier Press, 2011. Burger, Christoph and Jens Weinmann. The Decentralized Energy Revolution. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013. Carr, Nicholas. The Big Switch. New York: W.W. Norton, 2009. Chambers, Ann. Distributed Generation. Tulsa: PennWell Corporation, 2001. Chandler Jr., Alfred D. The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business. Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1977. Chesbrough, Henry. Open Innovation. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006. Christman, John. The Myth of Property: Toward an Egalitarian Theory of Ownership. New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.

pages: 226 words: 59,080

Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science by Dani Rodrik

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airline deregulation, Albert Einstein, bank run, barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, butterfly effect, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, collective bargaining, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, distributed generation, Donald Davies, Edward Glaeser, endogenous growth, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, Everything should be made as simple as possible, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial deregulation, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, fudge factor, full employment, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, income inequality, inflation targeting, informal economy, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, liquidity trap, loss aversion, low skilled workers, market design, market fundamentalism, minimum wage unemployment, oil shock, open economy, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, price stability, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, rent control, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, school vouchers, South Sea Bubble, spectrum auction, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, unorthodox policies, Vilfredo Pareto, Washington Consensus, white flight

., 151n Darwin, Charles, 113 Davis, Donald, 108 day care, 71, 190–91 Debreu, Gerard, 49–51 debt, national, 153 decision trees, 89–90, 90 DeLong, Brad, 136 democracy, social sciences and, 205 deposit insurance, 155 depreciation, currency, 153 Depression, Great, 2, 128, 153 deregulation, 143, 155, 158–59, 162, 168 derivatives, 153, 155 deterrence, in game theory, 33 development economics, 75–76, 86–93, 90, 159–67, 169, 201, 202 colonial settlement and, 206–7 institutions and, 98, 161, 202, 205–7 reform fatigue and, 88 diagnostic analysis, 86–93, 90, 97, 110–11 Dijkgraaf, Robbert, xiv “Dirtying White: Why Does Benn Steil’s History of Bretton Woods Distort the Ideas of Harry Dexter White?” (Boughton), 1n distribution, general theory of, 121 distribution, neoclassical theory of, 122, 124 Dixit, Avinash, xv, 61 Doan, pınar, xv Doing Growth Diagnostics in Practice (Hausmann, Klinger, and Wagner), 111n dollar, depreciation of, 153 dual economy models, 88 Duflo, Esther, 107 duopolies, 13n, 68 Dutch disease syndrome, 60, 61, 73, 100 East Anglia, University of, 172n Econometrica, 36 econometrics, 133 economic growth, 86–93, 90, 97, 110–11, 147–49 capital flow in, 17–18, 114, 164–67 currency in, 163–64, 167 public spending in, 76–78, 114 Washington Consensus and, 159–67, 169 economics: ambition, humility and, 208–11 antipoverty programs and, 3–4 behavioral factors in, 69–71, 104–7, 202–4 business cycles in, 125–37 contingent explanations of social life in, xiii critical assumptions in, 18, 26–29, 94–98, 150–51, 180, 183–84, 202 critics and, 177–211 definitions of, 7 developing economies and, see development economics efficiency in, xiii, 14, 21, 34, 48, 50, 51, 67, 98, 125, 147, 148, 150, 156–58, 161, 165, 170, 192–95, 196 errors of commission in, 159–67 errors of omission in, 152–59 field experiments in, 23–24, 105–8, 173, 202–5 game theory and, 5, 14–15, 33, 36, 61–62, 68, 103–4, 133 government policies and, 75–76, 87, 88, 147–48, 149, 160–61, 171 “hedgehog” vs.

pages: 209 words: 13,138

Empirical Market Microstructure: The Institutions, Economics and Econometrics of Securities Trading by Joel Hasbrouck

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Alvin Roth, barriers to entry, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, discrete time, disintermediation, distributed generation, experimental economics, financial intermediation, index arbitrage, information asymmetry, interest rate swap, inventory management, market clearing, market design, market friction, market microstructure, martingale, price discovery process, price discrimination, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, random walk, Richard Thaler, second-price auction, selection bias, short selling, statistical model, stochastic process, stochastic volatility, transaction costs, two-sided market, ultimatum game, zero-sum game

One recent study suggests that finite moments for daily equity returns exist only up to order 3 and for daily trading volume only up to order 1.5 (Gabaix et al. 2003). These findings, if correct, impose substantive restrictions on the sorts of models that can sensibly be estimated. Can safely we ignore this evidence? After all, why should one be concerned about convergence failures in infinite samples? The answer is that whatever one’s beliefs about the properties of the distribution generating the data, the existence of extreme values in finite samples is an irrefutable fact leading to many practical consequences. Sample estimates may be dominated by a few extreme values. Increasing sample size does not increase precision as fast we’d expect. Estimated parameters are sensitive to model specification. Finally, and most disturbingly in trading applications, conclusions drawn from the model are fragile.

Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages by Carlota Pérez

agricultural Revolution, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, Bretton Woods, capital controls, commoditize, Corn Laws, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, distributed generation, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, full employment, Hyman Minsky, informal economy, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, late capitalism, market fundamentalism, new economy, nuclear winter, offshore financial centre, post-industrial society, profit motive, railway mania, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, South Sea Bubble, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, tulip mania, Upton Sinclair, Washington Consensus

Le Monde (2001). 116 Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital ditions for attracting investors are set by the capital gains capacity of the high fliers in the mania. The other two structural tensions stem from the same basic cause: the whole frenzy phenomenon is, at bottom, a huge process of income redistribution in favor of those directly or indirectly involved in the casino, which funds the massive process of creative destruction in the economy. That regressive distribution generates a double vicious cycle: one is economic, expressed in the market; the other is social, expressed in political terms. Both get worse as the bubble increases. The economic vicious cycle sets in as the reversal of the virtuous cycle that created the casino prosperity. The concentration of income in the prosperous fringe of the population works wonderfully for providing a high investment rate, accompanied by a high dynamic demand for the early products of the revolution and many others that complement the new lifestyle.

pages: 552 words: 168,518

MacroWikinomics: Rebooting Business and the World by Don Tapscott, Anthony D. Williams

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accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, Bretton Woods, business climate, business process, car-free, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collaborative editing, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, colonial rule, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, demographic transition, distributed generation, don't be evil, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fault tolerance, financial innovation, Galaxy Zoo, game design, global village, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, hive mind, Home mortgage interest deduction, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, jimmy wales, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, medical bankruptcy, megacity, mortgage tax deduction, Netflix Prize, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shock, old-boy network, online collectivism, open borders, open economy, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, scientific mainstream, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, social web, software patent, Steve Jobs, text mining, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, value at risk, WikiLeaks, X Prize, young professional, Zipcar

The Frasers’ data suggests that stimulating millions of green energy experiments on urban rooftops is a more economically viable method of creating a green energy economy than building large centralized wind and solar farms. “We need a new paradigm,” said Gordon. “We can’t go on borrowing the same underlying assumptions and design traditions that underpin the industrial age model of power generation.” Naturally, the utility companies—who have little to gain from distributed generation—are not particularly enthralled with the Frasers’ arguments.19 Taken to its logical conclusion, distributed generation would unleash massive disruption and potentially make redundant a large part of what power utilities do today. Rather than selling power—a majority of which would be produced locally by homeowners and businesses—the core of the industry would shift to selling green energy installations and energy services like smart grid apps that help households and businesses save money.

How to Form Your Own California Corporation by Anthony Mancuso

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corporate governance, corporate raider, distributed generation, estate planning, information retrieval, intangible asset, passive income, passive investing, Silicon Valley

Contributions and accumu­ lated earnings under such plans are not taxed until they are distributed to the employee. This is advan­tageous because employees generally will be in a lower tax bracket at retirement age, and the funds, while they are held in trust, can be invested and allowed to accumulate with no chapter 4 | corporate taxation | 89 tax due on investment income or gains prior to their distribution. Generally speaking, there are two basic types of pension plans: defined-contribution and defined-benefit plans (there are some hybrid types as well). A defined-contribution plan guarantees a specified yearly contribution of no more than 25% of an employee’s annual salary to each employee. A defined-benefit plan guarantees a specified benefit upon retirement, which can be as large as 100% of an employee’s annual pay during his or her highest-paid years.

The Art of Computer Programming: Fundamental Algorithms by Donald E. Knuth

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discrete time, distributed generation, Donald Knuth, fear of failure, Fermat's Last Theorem, Gerard Salton, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, John von Neumann, linear programming, linked data, Menlo Park, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, Richard Feynman, sorting algorithm, stochastic process, Turing machine

[HM23] When the probability that some quantity has the value k is e~^(/j,k/k\), it is said to have the Poisson distribution with mean \x. a) What is the generating function for this set of probabilities? b) What are the values of the semi-invariants? c) Show that asn-^oo the Poisson distribution with mean np approaches the normal distribution in the sense of exercise 13. 16. [M25] Suppose X is a random variable whose values are a mixture of the proba- probability distributions generated by gi(z), 52B), ..., gr(z), in the sense that it uses gk{z) with probability pk, where pi + p2 + ¦ ¦ ¦ + pr — 1- What is the generating function for XI Express the mean and variance of X in terms of the means and variances of g\, ?2, ..., gr. > 17. [M27] Let f(z) and g(z) be generating functions that represent probability dis- distributions. a) Show that h(z) = g(f(z)) is also a generating function representing a probability distribution. b) Interpret the significance of h(z) in terms of f(z) and g(z).

(qn +pnz), where pk + qk — 1 for 1 < k < n. Let /j, = E X = pi + pi + ¦ ¦ • + pn. (a) Prove that Pr(X < nr) < {r^e7)", when 0 < r < 1; Pr(X > nr) < (r^e^Y. when r > 1. (b) Express the right-hand sides of these estimates in convenient form when r ~ 1. (c) Show that if r is sufficiently large we have Pr(X > /j,r) < 2~Mr. 23. [HM23] Estimate the tail probabilities for a random variable that has the negative binomial distribution generated by (q — pz)~n, where q = p + 1. *1.2.11. Asymptotic Representations We often want to know a quantity approximately, instead of exactly, in order to compare it to another. For example, Stirling's approximation to n! is a useful representation of this type, when n is large, and we have also made use of the fact that Hn w Inn + 7. The derivations of such asymptotic formulas generally involve higher mathematics, although in the following subsections we will use nothing more than elementary calculus to get the results we need. *

pages: 935 words: 267,358

Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty

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accounting loophole / creative accounting, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, banks create money, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, central bank independence, centre right, circulation of elites, collapse of Lehman Brothers, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, distributed generation, diversification, diversified portfolio, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial intermediation, full employment, German hyperinflation, Gini coefficient, high net worth, Honoré de Balzac, immigration reform, income inequality, income per capita, index card, inflation targeting, informal economy, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, market bubble, means of production, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, open economy, Paul Samuelson, pension reform, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, refrigerator car, regulatory arbitrage, rent control, rent-seeking, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, The Nature of the Firm, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, trade liberalization, very high income, Vilfredo Pareto, We are the 99%, zero-sum game

The distribution of capital ownership (and of income from capital) is always more concentrated than the distribution of income from labor. Two points need to be clarified at once. First, we find this regularity in all countries in all periods for which data are available, without exception, and the magnitude of the phenomenon is always quite striking. To give a preliminary idea of the order of magnitude in question, the upper 10 percent of the labor income distribution generally receives 25–30 percent of total labor income, whereas the top 10 percent of the capital income distribution always owns more than 50 percent of all wealth (and in some societies as much as 90 percent). Even more strikingly, perhaps, the bottom 50 percent of the wage distribution always receives a significant share of total labor income (generally between one-quarter and one-third, or approximately as much as the top 10 percent), whereas the bottom 50 percent of the wealth distribution owns nothing at all, or almost nothing (always less than 10 percent and generally less than 5 percent of total wealth, or one-tenth as much as the wealthiest 10 percent).

It is as if an official government report on inequalities in France in 1789 deliberately ignored everything above the ninetieth percentile—a group 5 to 10 times larger than the entire aristocracy of the day—on the grounds that it was too complex to say anything about. Such a chaste approach is all the more regrettable in that it inevitably feeds the wildest fantasies and tends to discredit official statistics and statisticians rather than calm social tensions. Conversely, interdecile ratios are sometimes quite high for largely artificial reasons. Take the distribution of capital ownership, for example: the bottom 50 percent of the distribution generally own next to nothing. Depending on how small fortunes are measured—for example, whether or not durable goods and debts are counted—one can come up with apparently quite different evaluations of exactly where the tenth percentile of the wealth hierarchy lies: for the same underlying social reality, one might put it at 100 euros, 1,000 euros, or even 10,000 euros, which in the end isn’t all that different but can lead to very different interdecile ratios, depending on the country and the period, even though the bottom half of the wealth distribution owns less than 5 percent of total wealth.

pages: 755 words: 121,290

Statistics hacks by Bruce Frey

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Bayesian statistics, Berlin Wall, correlation coefficient, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, game design, Hacker Ethic, index card, Milgram experiment, p-value, place-making, RFID, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Thomas Bayes

Create Your Own Standardized Score For fun, you can create your own standardized score distribution with any mean and standard deviation you wish. Don't like your SAT score of 350? Transform it into a score within a distribution of your choosing. Imagine, for example, that you'd prefer a distribution with a mean of 752,365 and a standard deviation of 216,456 (and who wouldn't?). Let's call this distribution the Frey Score Distribution. Generalizing the T score formula, you could transform your SAT score of 350 into a Frey score. Remember, you have to start with the z score for an SAT score of 350: and then transform it into a Frey score: Now, doesn't a score of 427,681 sound better than a score of 350? Because you know the mean of the Frey distribution, the interpretation of both scores is the same; they are still below average, and they are still 11/2 standard deviations below the mean.

pages: 339 words: 57,031

From Counterculture to Cyberculture: Stewart Brand, the Whole Earth Network, and the Rise of Digital Utopianism by Fred Turner

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1960s counterculture, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, back-to-the-land, bioinformatics, Buckminster Fuller, Claude Shannon: information theory, complexity theory, computer age, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dematerialisation, distributed generation, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, future of work, game design, George Gilder, global village, Golden Gate Park, Hacker Ethic, Haight Ashbury, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, informal economy, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, market bubble, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, means of production, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, new economy, Norbert Wiener, peer-to-peer, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, Productivity paradox, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Richard Stallman, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Ted Nelson, Telecommunications Act of 1996, theory of mind, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, Yom Kippur War

Even as the Free Speech Movement and the New Left explicitly confronted military, industrial, and academic institutions, the bohemian artists of cold war Manhattan and San Francisco, and later the hippies of Haight-Ashbury and the youthful back-to-the-landers, in fact embraced the technocentric optimism, the information theories, and the collaborative work style of the research world. Fully in keeping with the scientific ethos of the era, young members of the New Communalist wing of the counterculture, along with many in the New Left, imagined themselves as part of a massive, geographically distributed, generational experiment. The world was their laboratory; in it they could play both scientist and subject, exploring their minds and their bodies, their relationships to one another, and the nature of politics, commerce, community, and the state. Small-scale technologies would serve them in this work. Stereo gear, slide projectors, strobe lights, and, of course, LSD all had the power to transform the mind-set of an individual and to link him or her through invisible “vibes” to others.

pages: 483 words: 141,836

Red-Blooded Risk: The Secret History of Wall Street by Aaron Brown, Eric Kim

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activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, Asian financial crisis, Atul Gawande, backtesting, Basel III, Bayesian statistics, beat the dealer, Benoit Mandelbrot, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, capital asset pricing model, central bank independence, Checklist Manifesto, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, disintermediation, distributed generation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Thorp, Emanuel Derman, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental subject, financial innovation, illegal immigration, implied volatility, index fund, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, margin call, market clearing, market fundamentalism, market microstructure, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, natural language processing, open economy, Pierre-Simon Laplace, pre–internet, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, special drawing rights, statistical arbitrage, stochastic volatility, The Myth of the Rational Market, Thomas Bayes, too big to fail, transaction costs, value at risk, yield curve

I was always midway between the frequentist and Bayesian camps. People who think like me call ourselves data analysts, and we like nonparametric or distribution-free methods. We use a lot of rough tools, like jackknifes, bootstraps, cross-tabulations, and visualizations. We like to let the data speak to us instead of trying to fit it in a preconceived model, and we like simple methods that do not require strong assumptions about either the distribution generating the data or our prior knowledge. So on my own time, for my dissertation, I was trying a third approach to the conditional heteroskedasticity problem. A popular technique among data analysts is resampling. To predict the future, you string together randomly selected days from the past—with replacement, meaning you can pick the same past day more than once. You do this many times to generate a distribution of possible future outcomes.

pages: 629 words: 142,393

The Future of the Internet: And How to Stop It by Jonathan Zittrain

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A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andy Kessler, barriers to entry, book scanning, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, c2.com, call centre, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, commoditize, corporate governance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, Firefox, game design, Hacker Ethic, Howard Rheingold, Hush-A-Phone, illegal immigration, index card, informal economy, Internet Archive, jimmy wales, John Markoff, license plate recognition, loose coupling, mail merge, national security letter, old-boy network, packet switching, peer-to-peer, Post-materialism, post-materialism, pre–internet, price discrimination, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, RFC: Request For Comment, RFID, Richard Stallman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Bork, Robert X Cringely, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, Skype, slashdot, software patent, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Ted Nelson, Telecommunications Act of 1996, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, web application, wikimedia commons, zero-sum game

• There must be a way for an individual to prevent information about him that was obtained for one purpose from being used or made available for other purposes without his consent. • There must be a way for an individual to correct or amend a record of identifiable information about him. • Any organization creating, maintaining, using, or disseminating records of identifiable personal data must assure the reliability of the data for their intended use and must take precautions to prevent misuse of the data.101 These recommendations present a tall order for distributed, generative systems. It may seem clear that the existence of personal data record-keeping systems ought not to be kept secret, but this issue was easier to address in 1973, when such systems were typically large consumer credit databases or government dossiers about citizens, which could more readily be disclosed and advertised by the relevant parties. It is harder to apply the antisecrecy maxim to distributed personal information databases.

pages: 402 words: 110,972

Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets by David J. Leinweber

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AI winter, algorithmic trading, asset allocation, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, butterfly effect, buttonwood tree, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, citizen journalism, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Danny Hillis, demand response, disintermediation, distributed generation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, experimental economics, financial innovation, fixed income, Gordon Gekko, implied volatility, index arbitrage, index fund, information retrieval, intangible asset, Internet Archive, John Nash: game theory, Kenneth Arrow, Khan Academy, load shedding, Long Term Capital Management, Machine translation of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak." to Russian and back, market fragmentation, market microstructure, Mars Rover, Metcalfe’s law, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, natural language processing, negative equity, Network effects, optical character recognition, paper trading, passive investing, pez dispenser, phenotype, prediction markets, quantitative hedge fund, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Stallman, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, semantic web, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Silicon Valley, Small Order Execution System, smart grid, smart meter, social web, South Sea Bubble, statistical arbitrage, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Tacoma Narrows Bridge, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, Turing machine, Upton Sinclair, value at risk, Vernor Vinge, yield curve, Yogi Berra, your tax dollars at work

Source: GridPoint (www.gridpoint.com). 334 Nerds on Wall Str eet GridPoint explains how its simple blue box on the wall addresses all the key issues in our electricity future: The platform applies information technology to the electric grid to enable distributed energy resources to perform the same as central-station generation. During peak periods, utilities efficiently balance supply and demand by discharging stored power from distributed generation assets or reducing customers’ non-essential loads through demand response programs. Additionally, utilities effectively optimize baseload generation assets and relieve stress on transmission and distribution systems. The platform enables utilities to deploy proven technologies, (e.g., load control devices and advanced batteries) while creating a practical path for integrating new technologies (e.g., plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs] and fuel cells).

Beginning R: The Statistical Programming Language by Mark Gardener

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correlation coefficient, distributed generation, natural language processing, New Urbanism, p-value, statistical model

You can use the command in two ways: you can see what the current settings are and you can also alter these settings. If you type the command without any instructions (that is, just a pair of parentheses) you see the current settings: > RNGkind() [1] "Mersenne-Twister" "Inversion" Two items are listed. The first is the standard number generator and the second is the one used for normal distribution generation. To alter these, use the kind = and normal.kind = instructions along with a text string giving the algorithm you require; this can be abbreviated. The following example alters the algorithms and then resets them: > RNGkind(kind = 'Super', normal.kind = 'Box') > RNGkind() [1] "Super-Duper" "Box-Muller" > RNGkind('default') > RNGkind() [1] "Mersenne-Twister" "Box-Muller" > RNGkind('default', 'default') > RNGkind() [1] "Mersenne-Twister" "Inversion" Here you first alter both kinds of algorithm.

pages: 486 words: 132,784

Inventors at Work: The Minds and Motivation Behind Modern Inventions by Brett Stern

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Apple II, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, bioinformatics, Build a better mousetrap, business process, cloud computing, computer vision, cyber-physical system, distributed generation, game design, Grace Hopper, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, Skype, smart transportation, speech recognition, statistical model, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, the market place, Yogi Berra

Merfeld: I think the whole stationary grid space is exciting, underdeveloped, and in the early percolation stages of evolving. There’s a lot of excitement about this space, and I think it could be an opportunity like the hybridization of transportation to get better fuel economy. Applying that same concept around how we do power generation for electricity is going to be pretty exciting. Whether it’s distributed generation, whether it’s allowing the increased penetration of renewables, whether it changes in the way we actually think, whether it changes the models that we can use to envision how you make and sell electricity, I think energy storage has the promise to change that whole space. Stern: This technology is fairly macro. Do you see it getting into a micro level? I mean are there products that you will eventually make that the individual will use?

pages: 458 words: 135,206

CTOs at Work by Scott Donaldson, Stanley Siegel, Gary Donaldson

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Amazon Web Services, bioinformatics, business intelligence, business process, call centre, centre right, cloud computing, computer vision, connected car, crowdsourcing, data acquisition, distributed generation, domain-specific language, glass ceiling, pattern recognition, Pluto: dwarf planet, QR code, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ruby on Rails, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, software patent, thinkpad, web application, zero day, zero-sum game

Tolnar: The distributed energy resources now are monitored. What do I do with those? I manage those. So now I know that I've got 100 megawatts of storage in a given area. I've got 30 megawatts of thermal energy through ice that I froze that evening and it is ready to melt as needed so I don't have to use an air conditioning compressor. Then I've got a certain amount of distributed resources through distributed generation sources. That may be solar, it may be wind, it may be backup generation, and it may be some other form of biomass. Now … we can't control the sun. We can't control the wind—yet. But what we can do through tight coupling of the other resources is make a more predictable supply and demand curve, because the goal is predictability. Central generation is not going to go away anytime soon. What we have to do is make its life last a heck of a lot longer.

pages: 412 words: 113,782

Business Lessons From a Radical Industrialist by Ray C. Anderson

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Albert Einstein, banking crisis, carbon footprint, centralized clearinghouse, clean water, cleantech, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, dematerialisation, distributed generation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fear of failure, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invisible hand, late fees, Mahatma Gandhi, market bubble, music of the spheres, Negawatt, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old-boy network, peak oil, renewable energy credits, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, supply-chain management, urban renewal, Y2K

While there has been a tremendous surge of interest in sustainability, and some universities now have a sustainability officer leading the charge to look for green solutions, some areas of academia have been slow to catch on. The courses that many teach offer no sustainable solutions for the world their graduates will find. They are still part of the problem. Aspiring mechanical engineers still learn everything about internal combustion engines and not enough about fuel cells. Budding electrical engineers are still taught all about coal-fired central power plants, and not enough about distributed generating capacity from clean, renewable resources like the wind and the sun (or the local, methane-rich garbage dump!). Ceramics engineers still learn the traditional, abusive, heat-beat-treat methods that, quite literally, go back a thousand years or more. Meanwhile, they overlook the abalone’s natural nanostructural methods that use self-organized proteins and minerals dissolved in cold seawater to produce a ceramic product—mother-of-pearl nacre—that is superior to any man-made ceramic.

Commodity Trading Advisors: Risk, Performance Analysis, and Selection by Greg N. Gregoriou, Vassilios Karavas, François-Serge Lhabitant, Fabrice Douglas Rouah

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Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, backtesting, capital asset pricing model, collateralized debt obligation, commodity trading advisor, compound rate of return, constrained optimization, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, discrete time, distributed generation, diversification, diversified portfolio, dividend-yielding stocks, fixed income, high net worth, implied volatility, index arbitrage, index fund, interest rate swap, iterative process, linear programming, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, market fundamentalism, merger arbitrage, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, p-value, Pareto efficiency, Ponzi scheme, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, random walk, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, selection bias, Sharpe ratio, short selling, stochastic process, survivorship bias, systematic trading, technology bubble, transaction costs, value at risk, zero-sum game

If managed futures can provide downside protection, we would expect the average monthly downside return to be smaller than that observed for our initial stock/bond portfolio. Once again, we build a blended portfolio of 55 percent U.S. stocks, 35 percent U.S. treasury bonds, and 10 percent CTA strategy. We then develop a frequency distribution of monthly returns over the period 1990 to 2000. In Table 11.3 we present the results from the return distribution generated by this CTA-blended portfolio for each CTA strategy. For example, for CTA agriculture, the average downside return is −1.81 percent. This is an improvement of 26 basis points over the average downside return observed with the stock/bond portfolio. The number of downside months with CTA agriculture managed futures added to the portfolio increased by one month to 43. Unfortunately, some upside potential was sacrificed, as the expected monthly return of the investment portfolio declined from 0.91 percent to 0.88 percent when CTA agriculture managed futures are added.

pages: 501 words: 145,097

The Men Who United the States: America's Explorers, Inventors, Eccentrics and Mavericks, and the Creation of One Nation, Indivisible by Simon Winchester

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British Empire, clean water, colonial rule, discovery of the americas, distributed generation, Donner party, estate planning, Etonian, full employment, Hernando de Soto, hive mind, invention of radio, invention of the telegraph, James Watt: steam engine, Khyber Pass, Menlo Park, Plutocrats, plutocrats, transcontinental railway, Works Progress Administration

On his thirty-six-acre spread, he had laid out whole streets, each lined with wooden poles topped with glass lanterns, inside each of which was an incandescent bulb. Imaginary houses, designed to look like those in lower Manhattan, were also staked out, and they were lighted, too, and this whole unreal New York City was connected to an array of batteries with feeder cables (which took the power to the streets), mains wires (which took it into the houses), and service wires (which went to the individual house lamps). Edison’s basic plan for electric distribution—generator, feeder, mains, service—remains today the standard model for all distribution everywhere. Once he threw the switches, his display burst into a frenzy of glitter. It immediately and mightily impressed the city’s Blue Book visitors. The Vanderbilts, prominent from their railroading fortune, were the first to back Edison’s efforts. Then a portfolio of barons—J. P. Morgan, Baron Rothschild, and Henry Villard among them—followed suit, commingling between them sufficient funds to allow Edison to forge ahead.

The Future of Technology by Tom Standage

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air freight, barriers to entry, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, Clayton Christensen, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, creative destruction, disintermediation, distributed generation, double helix, experimental economics, full employment, hydrogen economy, industrial robot, informal economy, information asymmetry, interchangeable parts, job satisfaction, labour market flexibility, Marc Andreessen, market design, Menlo Park, millennium bug, moral hazard, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, optical character recognition, railway mania, rent-seeking, RFID, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, smart grid, software as a service, spectrum auction, speech recognition, stem cell, Steve Ballmer, technology bubble, telemarketer, transcontinental railway, Y2K

However, a complete return to that model would be folly, for it would rob both the grid and micropower plants of the chance to sell power when the other is in distress. Rather, the grid will be transformed into a digital network capable of handling complex, multi-directional flows of power. Micropower and megapower will then work together. abb foresees the emergence of “microgrids” made up of all sorts of distributed generators, including fuel cells (which combine hydrogen and oxygen to produce electricity cleanly), wind and solar power. The University of California at Irvine is developing one, as are some firms in Germany. “Virtual utilities” would then aggregate the micropower from various sources in real time – and sell it to the grid. Energy-storage devices will be increasingly important too. Electricity, almost uniquely among commodities, cannot be stored efficiently (except as water in hydroelectric dams).

pages: 464 words: 139,088

The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking and the Future of the Global Economy by Mervyn King

Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, balance sheet recession, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, bitcoin, Black Swan, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, centre right, collapse of Lehman Brothers, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, distributed generation, Doha Development Round, Edmond Halley, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, fiat currency, financial innovation, financial intermediation, floating exchange rates, forward guidance, Fractional reserve banking, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, German hyperinflation, Hyman Minsky, inflation targeting, invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Meriwether, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, labour market flexibility, large denomination, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, manufacturing employment, market clearing, Martin Wolf, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, Nick Leeson, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, price stability, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, rising living standards, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Satoshi Nakamoto, savings glut, secular stagnation, seigniorage, stem cell, Steve Jobs, The Great Moderation, the payments system, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, yield curve, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

In addition, there is an active over-the-counter market in bilateral transactions. 8 Several theoretical papers have tried to express coordination failures in terms of an abstract game-theoretic description of an economy; for example, Cooper and John (1988) and, more recently, Angeletos et al. (2014). Such abstraction is not necessary to understand the coordination problem, even if its consequences are fundamental. 9 Krugman (2011). 10 Other path-breaking contributions were made by, among others, the American economists Tom Sargent and Neil Wallace. 11 Random shifts in the distributions generating shocks in a neoclassical model, termed ‘extrinsic uncertainty’ by Hendry and Mizon (2014), are similar to radical uncertainty. 12 Such models were described as ‘New Keynesian’ despite the fact that Keynes’s view of recessions did not depend on the slow adjustment of wages and prices to external shocks and that the essence of Keynes, namely radical uncertainty and the resulting prisoner’s dilemma, was absent from them. 13 They are sometimes described as ‘dynamic stochastic general equilibrium’ (DSGE) models, and have become the basis for much modern macroeconomics.

pages: 2,045 words: 566,714

J.K. Lasser's Your Income Tax by J K Lasser Institute

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Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airline deregulation, asset allocation, collective bargaining, distributed generation, employer provided health coverage, estate planning, Home mortgage interest deduction, intangible asset, medical malpractice, medical residency, money market fund, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, passive income, Ponzi scheme, profit motive, rent control, Right to Buy, telemarketer, transaction costs, urban renewal, zero-coupon bond

In other words, the $60,000 distribution is tax free to the extent that the depreciation deduction of $80,000 exceeds the amortization of $40,000—namely $40,000. If the amortization payment were increased to $50,000, only $30,000 of the distribution would be tax free ($80,000 − $50,000). Real estate investment trusts (REITs). The tax treatment of real estate investment trusts resembles that of open-end mutual funds. Distributions generally are reported to the investors on Form 1099-DIV as dividend income. However, distributions generally do not qualify for the reduced tax rate on qualified dividends (4.1). A distribution qualifies for the reduced rate only to the extent it represents previously taxed undistributed income or qualifying dividends received by the REIT (from stock investments) that are passed through to the investors. Capital gain distributions reported on Form 1099-DIV must be reported as long-term capital gains regardless of how long the REIT shares have been held (4.4).

Any expenses taken into account when figuring an American Opportunity credit or Lifetime Learning credit further reduce qualified expenses. The balance of qualifying expenses after subtracting tax-free educational assistance and credit-related expenses is the beneficiary’s adjusted qualified educational expenses. The Example below shows how the taxable portion of the distribution is determined when the total distribution exceeds the adjusted qualified education expenses. Additional tax on taxable distributions. Generally, a taxable distribution is subject to a 10% additional tax, which is figured on Form 5329. However, the 10% additional tax does not apply to distributions that are: (1) made to a beneficiary (or to the estate of the designated beneficiary) on or after the death of the designated beneficiary, (2) made because the designated beneficiary is disabled, (3) taxable because the designated beneficiary received a tax-free scholarship or educational assistance allowance that equals or exceeds the distribution, or (4) taxable only because the qualified ESA education expenses were reduced by expenses used in figuring an American Opportunity or Lifetime Learning credit.

pages: 879 words: 233,093

The Empathic Civilization: The Race to Global Consciousness in a World in Crisis by Jeremy Rifkin

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agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, British Empire, carbon footprint, collaborative economy, death of newspapers, delayed gratification, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, feminist movement, global village, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, labour mobility, Mahatma Gandhi, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, off grid, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, supply-chain management, surplus humans, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, transaction costs, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, working poor, World Values Survey

The smart intergrid will not only give end users more power over their energy choices, but it also creates new energy efficiencies in the distribution of electricity. The intergrid makes possible a broad redistribution of power. Today’s centralized, top-down flow of energy becomes increasingly obsolete. In the new era, businesses, municipalities, and homeowners become the producers as well as the consumers of their own energy—what is referred to as “distributed generation.” The distributed smart grid also provides the essential infrastructure for making the transition from the oil-powered internal combustion engine to electric and hydrogen fuel-cell plug-in vehicles. Electric plug-in and hydrogen-powered fuel-cell vehicles are also “power stations on wheels” with a generating capacity of twenty or more kilowatts. Since the average car, bus, and truck is parked much of the time, it can be plugged in during nonuse hours to the home, office, or main interactive electricity network, providing premium electricity back to the grid.

pages: 678 words: 159,840

The Debian Administrator's Handbook, Debian Wheezy From Discovery to Mastery by Raphaal Hertzog, Roland Mas

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bash_history, Debian, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, failed state, Firefox, GnuPG, Google Chrome, Jono Bacon, NP-complete, QWERTY keyboard, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, Skype, SpamAssassin, Valgrind, web application, x509 certificate, zero day, Zimmermann PGP

The extract below uses the wheezy-proposed-updates alias which is both more explicit and more consistent since squeeze-proposed-updates also exists (for the Oldstable updates): deb http://ftp.debian.org/debian wheezy-proposed-updates main contrib non-free Stable Backports The stable-backports repository hosts “package backports”. The term refers to a package of some recent software which has been recompiled for an older distribution, generally for Stable. When the distribution becomes a little dated, numerous software projects have released new versions that are not integrated into the current Stable (which is only modified to address the most critical problems, such as security problems). Since the Testing and Unstable distributions can be more risky, package maintainers sometimes offer recompilations of recent software applications for Stable, which has the advantage to limit potential instability to a small number of chosen packages

pages: 903 words: 235,753

The Stack: On Software and Sovereignty by Benjamin H. Bratton

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1960s counterculture, 3D printing, 4chan, Ada Lovelace, additive manufacturing, airport security, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, call centre, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, Cass Sunstein, Celebration, Florida, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, dark matter, David Graeber, deglobalization, dematerialisation, disintermediation, distributed generation, don't be evil, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Eratosthenes, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Georg Cantor, gig economy, global supply chain, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Guggenheim Bilbao, High speed trading, Hyperloop, illegal immigration, industrial robot, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jacob Appelbaum, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, Jony Ive, Julian Assange, Khan Academy, liberal capitalism, lifelogging, linked data, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Masdar, McMansion, means of production, megacity, megastructure, Menlo Park, Minecraft, Monroe Doctrine, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, peak oil, peer-to-peer, performance metric, personalized medicine, Peter Eisenman, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Philip Mirowski, Pierre-Simon Laplace, place-making, planetary scale, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, reserve currency, RFID, Robert Bork, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, semantic web, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Slavoj Žižek, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, software studies, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Startup school, statistical arbitrage, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, Superbowl ad, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, TaskRabbit, the built environment, The Chicago School, the scientific method, Torches of Freedom, transaction costs, Turing complete, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, urban planning, Vernor Vinge, Washington Consensus, web application, Westphalian system, WikiLeaks, working poor, Y Combinator

See Rem Koolhaas, Delirious New York: A Retroactive Manifesto for Manhattan (New York: Monacelli Press, 1994). 27.  Franco B. Berardi, Neuro Totalitarianism (Los Angeles: Semiotext(e), 2014). 28.  Logistics here refers to both the expert mobilization of things, but also the aestheticized image of mobility in action. For the latter, logistics is a technical imaginary for the world in choreographic motion, an image that in turn becomes a technique for organizing the world as a distributed, generalized complex of distributed, integrated interfaces. 29.  A possible methodological framework: Interface design is less about the design of a thing than of a condition of transference (that could become a thing) and can take at least three main forms. First-order interface design produces the conditions of interassemblage between people, things, or places—making it good, smart, fast, flexible, sustainable, and so on.

pages: 636 words: 202,284

Piracy : The Intellectual Property Wars from Gutenberg to Gates by Adrian Johns

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active measures, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, business intelligence, commoditize, Corn Laws, demand response, distributed generation, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Edmond Halley, Ernest Rutherford, Fellow of the Royal Society, full employment, Hacker Ethic, Howard Rheingold, informal economy, invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Harrison: Longitude, Marshall McLuhan, Mont Pelerin Society, new economy, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, pirate software, Republic of Letters, Richard Stallman, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, software patent, South Sea Bubble, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, the scientific method, traveling salesman, Whole Earth Catalog

In Cardiff, for example, he was accused of trespassing, which led to an open debate in court about whether a stall was “as sacred as an Englishman’s private house.” “That one spot is,” it was affirmed. People with real addresses – shopkeepers, coffeehouse men, publicans, and so on – were an altogether more serious matter. Their fixed premises meant they could often act as local centers of distribution. Generally, hawkers would be supplied from some such house, pub, or other outlet, with the actual warehouse being a small distance away down a back street. Two examples stand out as notable. One was the Manchester shop of a young man called by the press “Himie Cohen,” where Preston found thirty hawkers collecting piracies to sell (some of them escaped out of a window). He also seized a memo book detailing average takings of £12 to £24 per week – an indication of the proceeds to be expected from a middleoftheroad piracy outfit.

pages: 777 words: 186,993

Imagining India by Nandan Nilekani

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affirmative action, Airbus A320, BRICs, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, clean water, colonial rule, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, digital map, distributed generation, farmers can use mobile phones to check market prices, full employment, ghettoisation, glass ceiling, global supply chain, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), joint-stock company, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, land reform, light touch regulation, LNG terminal, load shedding, Mahatma Gandhi, market fragmentation, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, open economy, Parag Khanna, pension reform, Potemkin village, price mechanism, race to the bottom, rent control, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, Silicon Valley, smart grid, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, unemployed young men, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population

dj This vision of decentralized energy is hardly a radical one and goes all the way back to Thomas Edison, who strongly favored electricity supply through a decentralized DC network. His DC “micropower” systems failed because the technology was unreliable and expensive. Edison had to watch a couple of his DC plants literally go up in flames before he gave up on the idea. dk I have chaired two committees on IT in the power sector, and the second one recommended having such “Smart Grids” that can deal with distributed generation and multiple renewable sources.

pages: 927 words: 236,812

The Taste of War: World War Two and the Battle for Food by Lizzie Collingham

agricultural Revolution, British Empire, centre right, clean water, colonial exploitation, distributed generation, European colonialism, fixed income, full employment, global village, indoor plumbing, labour mobility, land reform, mass immigration, means of production, profit motive, rising living standards, trade route, V2 rocket, women in the workforce

In Essen bread and potatoes made up 90 per cent of what most people ate and the industrial towns were once more hard hit by an unsatisfactory potato harvest in the summer.170 The Ministry of Food began to make plans to distribute swedes and turnips, and Italian rice and lentils were brought in to eke out the supplies of staple foods.171 The basic meat and fat ration had to be cut yet again in May.172 Even though military rations were cut by 20 per cent, the army was too large a burden on the system. All this was exacerbated by the 7 million foreign workers in the Reich and the fact that local officials began to distribute generous rations to the homeless in the bombed-out cities.173 In the spring of 1943 Sybil Bannister, an Englishwoman married to a German gynaecologist, discovered how serious the food situation in the towns was in comparison with the comparatively plentiful food supply in the countryside. Sybil spent the first years of the war living in Bromberg, a town in the annexed part of Poland. Here she missed cheese and sauces but felt that she ‘could not grumble.

Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques: Concepts and Techniques by Jiawei Han, Micheline Kamber, Jian Pei

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bioinformatics, business intelligence, business process, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, computer vision, correlation coefficient, cyber-physical system, database schema, discrete time, distributed generation, finite state, information retrieval, iterative process, knowledge worker, linked data, natural language processing, Netflix Prize, Occam's razor, pattern recognition, performance metric, phenotype, random walk, recommendation engine, RFID, semantic web, sentiment analysis, speech recognition, statistical model, stochastic process, supply-chain management, text mining, thinkpad, Thomas Bayes, web application

To tackle the problem demonstrated in Example 12.12, we can assume that the normal data objects are generated by a normal distribution, or a mixture of normal distributions, whereas the outliers are generated by another distribution. Heuristically, we can add constraints on the distribution that is generating outliers. For example, it is reasonable to assume that this distribution has a larger variance if the outliers are distributed in a larger area. Technically, we can assign , where k is a user-specified parameter and σ is the standard deviation of the normal distribution generating the normal data. Again, the EM algorithm can be used to learn the parameters. 12.3.2. Nonparametric Methods In nonparametric methods for outlier detection, the model of “normal data” is learned from the input data, rather than assuming one a priori. Nonparametric methods often make fewer assumptions about the data, and thus can be applicable in more scenarios. Outlier detection using a histogram AllElectronics records the purchase amount for every customer transaction.

pages: 892 words: 91,000

Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies by Tim Koller, McKinsey, Company Inc., Marc Goedhart, David Wessels, Barbara Schwimmer, Franziska Manoury

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activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, air freight, barriers to entry, Basel III, BRICs, business climate, business process, capital asset pricing model, capital controls, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, cloud computing, commoditize, compound rate of return, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, discounted cash flows, distributed generation, diversified portfolio, energy security, equity premium, fixed income, index fund, intangible asset, iterative process, Long Term Capital Management, market bubble, market friction, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Myron Scholes, negative equity, new economy, p-value, performance metric, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, shareholder value, six sigma, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, survivorship bias, technology bubble, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, value at risk, yield curve, zero-coupon bond

In contrast, General Mills substantially reduced costs in Pillsbury’s purchasing, manufacturing, and distribution, because the two companies’ operations duplicated significant costs. On the revenue side, General Mills boosted Pillsbury’s revenues by introducing Pillsbury products to schools in the United States where General Mills already had a strong presence. And the synergies worked both ways: for instance, Pillsbury’s refrigerated trucks were used to distribute General Mills’ new line of refrigerated meals. Pillsbury represented value in at least two ways at the time of the sale: its value to General Mills and its value to Diageo. For General Mills to consider the deal attractive, Pillsbury’s worth under General Mills’ ownership had to be greater than the $10.4 billion purchase price. For Diageo to consider the deal attractive, General Mills’ offer had to represent more than the value Diageo expected to create from Pillsbury in the future.

pages: 1,145 words: 310,655

1967: Israel, the War, and the Year That Transformed the Middle East by Tom Segev

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affirmative action, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Boycotts of Israel, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, distributed generation, friendly fire, full employment, ghettoisation, illegal immigration, invisible hand, mass immigration, open borders, Ronald Reagan, Yom Kippur War, young professional

On the Jordanian front the war had essentially been won. Only three cities had not yet been captured—Nablus, Hebron, and Jericho—but they were encircled. The air force had shot down twenty-three more planes, about half Egyptian and half Iraqi, and had lost five of its own. The number of Israeli dead had reached 460: 225 in the south and 235 on the West Bank.46 The commander of Southern Command distributed General Order No. 2 among his troops: “Never before have so few pilots destroyed so many aircraft in such a short time.” He urged them to keep up the good work: “Follow the enemy and strike him down, hit him again and again, until he is defeated by the sword of the fighters of the Southern Command,” he wrote.47 CHAPTER 14 DAY THREE 1. TEARS: “I’M TOUCHING THE KOTEL!” The sun rose large over the low hilltops in the east, wrote Yehoshua Bar-Dayan on the morning of his third day of war, Wednesday, June 7.

pages: 923 words: 516,602

The C++ Programming Language by Bjarne Stroustrup

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combinatorial explosion, conceptual framework, database schema, distributed generation, Donald Knuth, fault tolerance, general-purpose programming language, index card, iterative process, job-hopping, locality of reference, Menlo Park, Parkinson's law, premature optimization, sorting algorithm

. (∗1) If n is an iinntt, what is the distribution of (ddoouubbllee(rraanndd())/R RA AN ND D__M MA AX X)*nn? 14. (∗2.5) Plot points in a square output area. The coordinate pairs for the points should be generated by U Urraanndd(N N), where N is the number of pixels on a side of the output area. What does the output tell you about the distribution of numbers generated by U Urraanndd? 15. (∗2) Implement a Normal distribution generator, N Nrraanndd. The C++ Programming Language, Third Edition by Bjarne Stroustrup. Copyright ©1997 by AT&T. Published by Addison Wesley Longman, Inc. ISBN 0-201-88954-4. All rights reserved. 688 Numerics Chapter 22 The C++ Programming Language, Third Edition by Bjarne Stroustrup. Copyright ©1997 by AT&T. Published by Addison Wesley Longman, Inc. ISBN 0-201-88954-4. All rights reserved.