meta-analysis

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pages: 321 words: 97,661

How to Read a Paper: The Basics of Evidence-Based Medicine by Trisha Greenhalgh

call centre, complexity theory, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, deskilling, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, New Journalism, p-value, personalized medicine, placebo effect, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, the scientific method

You may have worked out by now that anyone who is thinking about doing a clinical trial of an intervention should first do a meta-analysis of all the previous trials on that same intervention. In practice, researchers only occasionally do this. Dean Fergusson and colleagues of the Ottawa Health Research Institute published a cumulative meta-analysis of all randomised controlled trials carried out on the drug aprotinin in peri-operative bleeding during cardiac surgery [16]. They lined up the trials in the order they had been published, and worked out what a meta-analysis of ‘all trials done so far’ would have shown (had it been performed at the time). The resulting cumulative meta-analysis had shocking news for the research communities. The beneficial effect of aprotinin reached statistical significance after only 12 trials—that is, back in 1992. But because nobody did a meta-analysis at the time, a further 52 clinical trials were undertaken (and more may be ongoing).

The inclusion in systematic reviews of irrelevant studies is guaranteed to lead to absurdities and reduce the credibility of secondary research. Meta-analysis for the non-statistician If I had to pick one term that exemplifies the fear and loathing felt by so many students, clinicians and consumers towards EBM, that word would be ‘meta-analysis’. The meta-analysis, defined as a statistical synthesis of the numerical results of several trials that all addressed the same question, is the statisticians' chance to pull a double whammy on you. First, they frighten you with all the statistical tests in the individual papers, and then they use a whole new battery of tests to produce a new set of odds ratios, confidence intervals and values for significance. As I confessed in Chapter 5, I too tend to go into panic mode at the sight of ratios, square root signs and half-forgotten Greek letters. But before you consign meta-analysis to the set of specialised techniques that you will never understand, remember two things.

Figure 9.4 illustrates this waste of effort. Figure 9.4 Cumulative meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of aprotinin in cardiac surgery [16]. Reproduced with permission of Clinical Trials. If you have followed the arguments on meta-analysis of published trial results this far, you might like to read up on the more sophisticated technique of meta-analysis of individual patient data, which provides a more accurate and precise figure for the point estimate of effect [17]. You might also like to hunt out what is becoming the classic textbook on the topic [18]. Explaining heterogeneity In everyday language, ‘homogeneous’ means ‘of uniform composition’, and ‘heterogeneous’ means ‘many different ingredients’. In the language of meta-analysis, homogeneity means that the results of each individual trial are compatible with the results of any of the others.


pages: 741 words: 199,502

Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class by Charles Murray

23andMe, affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Asperger Syndrome, assortative mating, basic income, bioinformatics, Cass Sunstein, correlation coefficient, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, feminist movement, glass ceiling, Gunnar Myrdal, income inequality, Kenneth Arrow, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, p-value, phenotype, publication bias, quantitative hedge fund, randomized controlled trial, replication crisis, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, school vouchers, Scientific racism, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, social intelligence, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, twin studies, universal basic income, working-age population

The authors presented results for a meta-analysis of College Board data, a meta-analysis of other studies using a composite measure of parental SES, and a reanalysis of major longitudinal datasets. A table summarizing the results is given in the note.[36] Boiling it down: After controlling for the admissions test score, the correlation of parental SES and college grades dropped from +.22 to –.01 in the SAT meta-analysis, from .09 to .00 in the meta-analysis of studies with composite SES measures, and from a mean of .06 to .01 among the longitudinal studies. After controlling for the measure of SES, the correlation between admission test score and grades was reduced only fractionally: from +.53 to +.50 in the SAT meta-analysis, from +.37 to +.36 in the meta-analysis of studies with composite SES measures, and from a mean of +.313 to +.308 among the longitudinal studies.

SEX DIFFERENCES (D) IN VOCATIONAL INTERESTS AND OCCUPATIONS ACROSS DIFFERENT MEASURES AND SAMPLES RIASEC dimension: Realistic Meta-analysis of 503,188 scores on interest inventories: –0.84 Adult scores of SMPY cohorts 1, 2, 3, and 4: –0.92 Ratings of occupations held by Americans ages 25–54: –0.77 RIASEC dimension: Investigative Meta-analysis of 503,188 scores on interest inventories: –0.26 Adult scores of SMPY cohorts 1, 2, 3, and 4: –0.28 Ratings of occupations held by Americans ages 25–54: –0.08 RIASEC dimension: Conventional Meta-analysis of 503,188 scores on interest inventories: +0.33 Adult scores of SMPY cohorts 1, 2, 3, and 4: –0.47 Ratings of occupations held by Americans ages 25–54: +0.27 RIASEC dimension: Enterprising Meta-analysis of 503,188 scores on interest inventories: –0.04 Adult scores of SMPY cohorts 1, 2, 3, and 4: –0.50 Ratings of occupations held by Americans ages 25–54: +0.09 RIASEC dimension: Artistic Meta-analysis of 503,188 scores on interest inventories: +0.35 Adult scores of SMPY cohorts 1, 2, 3, and 4: +1.06 Ratings of occupations held by Americans ages 25–54: +0.22 RIASEC dimension: Social Meta-analysis of 503,188 scores on interest inventories: +0.68 Adult scores of SMPY cohorts 1, 2, 3, and 4: +0.88 Ratings of occupations held by Americans ages 25–54: +0.84 Source: Su, Rounds, and Armstrong (2009); Author’s analysis, combined ACS, 2011–15; Lubinski and Benbow (2006): Table 5.

In “Gender Effects in Decoding Nonverbal Cues,” published in Psychological Bulletin in 1978, Hall reported mean effect sizes favoring females of +0.32 for visual cues, +0.18 for auditory cues, and a large effect of +1.02 for the seven studies that combined visual and auditory cues.47 Six years later, Hall extended her meta-analysis to include nine countries around the world. Subsequent work has yielded similar results.48 In 2014, psychologists Ashley Thompson and Daniel Voyer undertook a new meta-analysis. Hall’s reviews had included studies of accuracy in interpersonal perception of any kind. Thompson and Voyer focused on the ability to detect specific discrete emotions. As in other studies, the results showed a female advantage, but with a smaller effect size that had a lower bound effect size of +0.19 and an upper bound of +0.27.49 The Thompson meta-analysis also corroborated Hall’s findings that effect sizes are substantially increased when the subjects in the studies have access to a combination of visual and audio information—that is, when they could see both face and body language and also hear tone of voice.


pages: 357 words: 110,072

Trick or Treatment: The Undeniable Facts About Alternative Medicine by Edzard Ernst, Simon Singh

animal electricity, Barry Marshall: ulcers, Berlin Wall, correlation does not imply causation, false memory syndrome, Florence Nightingale: pie chart, germ theory of disease, John Snow's cholera map, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, profit motive, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, Simon Singh, The Design of Experiments, the scientific method

In fact, the most sensible interpretation of the meta-analysis was that homeopathy was indeed nothing more than a placebo. This interpretation becomes more convincing if we bear in mind another aspect of his research. While conducting his meta-analysis on homeopathy, he also conducted a meta-analysis for a whole variety of new, conventional pharmaceuticals. These pharmaceuticals had been tested on the same illnesses that had been considered for the homeopathy meta-analysis. In this secondary meta-analysis, Shang scrupulously applied exactly the same selection criteria to these conventional drug trials as he had done in his homeopathy meta-analysis. The result of his meta-analysis on conventional drug trials was that on average they worked. Although this result also had an uncertainty associated with it, the average benefit was so large that the effectiveness of these new conventional drugs was not in any doubt.

He and his colleagues decided to examine the considerable body of research into homeopathy in order to develop an over-arching conclusion that took into consideration each and every trial. This is known as a meta-analysis, which means an analysis of various analyses. In other words, each individual trial into homeopathy concluded with an analysis of its own data, and Linde was proposing to pool all these separate analyses in order to generate a new, more reliable, overall result. Meta-analysis can be considered as a particular type of systematic review, a concept that was introduced in the previous chapter. Like a systematic review, a meta-analysis attempts to draw an overall conclusion from several separate trials, except that a meta-analysis tends to involve a more mathematical approach. Although the term meta-analysis might be unfamiliar to many readers, it is a concept that crops up in a range of familiar situations where it is important to make sense of lots of data.

Indeed, the majority of experiments (three out of five) imply a higher than expected hit rate, so one way to interpret these sets of data would be to conclude that, in general, the experiments support astrology. However, a meta-analysis would come to a different conclusion. The meta-analysis would start by pointing out that the number of attempts made by the astrologer in any one of the experiments was relatively small, and therefore the result of any single experiment could be explained by mere chance. In other words, the result of any one of these experiments is effectively meaningless. Next, the researcher doing the meta-analysis would combine all the data from the individual experiments as though they were part of one giant experiment. This tells us that the astrologer had 49 hits out of 600 in total, which is equivalent to a hit rate of 0.98 out of 12, which is very close to 1 out of 12, the hit rate expected by chance alone. The conclusion of this hypothetical meta-analysis would be that the astrologer has demonstrated no special ability to determine a person’s star sign based on their personality.


Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth by Stuart Ritchie

Albert Einstein, anesthesia awareness, Bayesian statistics, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, complexity theory, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, COVID-19, Covid-19, crowdsourcing, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science, Growth in a Time of Debt, Kenneth Rogoff, l'esprit de l'escalier, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Milgram experiment, mouse model, New Journalism, p-value, phenotype, placebo effect, profit motive, publication bias, publish or perish, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, recommendation engine, rent-seeking, replication crisis, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Stanford prison experiment, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Pinker, Thomas Bayes, twin studies, University of East Anglia

The impact a vaccine has on reducing mortality from a disease was the subject of the first ever medical meta-analysis, carried out by the statistician Karl Pearson in 1904 (the disease being typhoid) – though the technique hadn’t yet been named ‘meta-analysis’. Karl Pearson, ‘Report on Certain Enteric Fever Inoculation Statistics’, BMJ 2, no. 2288 (5 Nov. 1904): pp. 1243–46; https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.2.2288.1243. A useful history and summary of meta-analysis is provided in: Jessica Gurevitch et al., ‘Meta-Analysis and the Science of Research Synthesis’, Nature 555, no. 7695 (Mar. 2018): pp. 175–82; https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25753. Climate change: A. J. Challinor et al., ‘A Meta-Analysis of Crop Yield under Climate Change and Adaptation’, Nature Climate Change 4, no. 4 (April 2014): pp. 287–91; https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2153 27.  

An example of the latter is the anaesthesiologist Joachim Boldt, current occupier of the second spot on the Retraction Watch Leaderboard.120 Boldt fabricated data on hydroxyethyl starch, a chemical sometimes used during trauma surgery as a blood volume expander (the idea was that it could prevent shock after blood loss by helping the remaining blood to circulate). Boldt’s faked results made it look as if hydroxyethyl starch was safe for this purpose, a verdict bolstered by the fact that a ‘meta-analysis’ – a review study that pools together all the previous papers on the subject – reached the same conclusion. This was only true, however, because Boldt’s fraud hadn’t yet been revealed; the meta-analysis included his fake results as part of its review. When Boldt’s deception became known, and his papers were excluded from the meta-analysis, the results changed dramatically: patients who’d been given hydroxyethyl starch were, in fact, more likely to die.121 Boldt’s fraud had distorted the entire field of research, endangering patients whose surgeons, perfectly understandably, took the results at face value.122 Among the very worst scientific fraud cases was one that not only misled scientists and doctors, but also had an enormous impact on the public perception of a vitally important medical treatment.

In any case, nothing seems to be missing here: the upside-down funnel shape is just what we’d expect if all the studies had converged upon a real effect. Figure 2. Funnel plots from an imaginary meta-analysis, in two different scenarios. In scenario A, the distribution of the thirty studies is about what you’d expect if every study ever done on the topic had been published. In scenario B, the six studies from the bottom-left section (studies with small samples and small effects) are missing – a pattern that might signal publication bias. The vertical line in the middle of each graph is the overall effect size calculated by each meta-analysis. In the case of scenario B, it’s been shifted to the right, meaning that the meta-analysis is coming up with a bigger effect than it should. Just as in an archaeological dig, where the absence of particular objects tells you interesting things about the historical people you’re investigating – for instance, a lack of weapons might mean they were civilians rather than soldiers – we can learn a lot from what we don’t see in a meta-analysis.


pages: 382 words: 115,172

The Diet Myth: The Real Science Behind What We Eat by Tim Spector

biofilm, British Empire, Colonization of Mars, cuban missile crisis, David Strachan, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, hygiene hypothesis, Kickstarter, life extension, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, Steve Jobs, twin studies

., The Big Fat Surprise (Simon & Schuster, 2014) 6 Goldacre, B., BMJ (2014); 349 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g4745. Mass treatment with statins. 7 Harborne, Z., Open Heart (2015); 2: doi:10.1136/openhrt-2014-000196. Evidence from randomised controlled trials did not support the introduction of dietary fat guidelines in 1977 and 1983: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 8 Siri-Tarino, P.W., Am J Clin Nutr (2010); 91: 535–46. Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies evaluating the association of saturated fat with cardiovascular disease. 9 Hjerpsted, J., Am J Clin Nutr (2011); 94: 1479–84. Cheese intake in large amounts lowers LDL-cholesterol concentrations compared with butter intake of equal fat content. 10 Rice, B.H., Curr Nutr Rep (15 Mar 2014); 3: 130–38. Dairy and Cardiovascular Disease: A Review of Recent Observational Research. 11 Tachmazidou, I., Nature Commun (2013); 4: 2872.

., BMJ (15 Jan 2012); 346: e7492. Dietary sugars and body weight: systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials and cohort studies. 31 Sievenpiper, J.L., Ann Intern Med (21 Feb 2012); 156: 291–304. Effect of fructose on body weight in controlled feeding trials: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 32 Kelishadi, R., Nutrition (May 2014); 30: 503–10. Association of fructose consumption and components of metabolic syndrome in human studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 11 Carbohydrates: Non-sugars 1 Claesson, M.J., Nature (9 Aug 2012); 488(7410): 178–84. Gut microbiota composition correlates with diet and health in the elderly. 2 van Tongeren, S., Appl. Environ. Microbiol (2005); 71(10): 6438–42. Fecal microbiota composition and frailty. 3 Friedman, M., J Agric Food Chem (9 Oct 2013); 61(40): 9534–50.

Food neophobia shows heritable variation in humans. 12 Fibre 1 Anderson, J.C., Am J Gastroenterol (Oct 2014); 109(10): 1650–2. Editorial: constipation and colorectal cancer risk: a continuing conundrum. 2 Threapleton, D.E., BMJ (19 Dec 2013); 347: f6879. Dietary fibre intake and risk of cardiovascular disease: systematic review and meta-analysis. 3 Kim, Y., Am J Epidemiol (15 Sep 2014);180(6): 565–73. Dietary fiber intake and total mortality: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. 4 Thies, F., Br J Nutr (Oct 2014); 112 Suppl 2: S19–30. Oats and CVD risk markers: a systematic literature review. 5 Musilova, S., Benef Microbes (Sep 2014); 5(3): 273–83. Beneficial effects of human milk oligosaccharides on gut microbiota. 6 Ukhanova, M., Br J Nutr (28 Jun 2014); 111(12): 2146–52.


The End of Pain: How Nutrition and Diet Can Fight Chronic Inflammatory Disease by Jacqueline Lagace

longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, stem cell

Earlier studies had shown that chondroitin sulfate could be absorbed orally and then identified in synovial fluid and cartilage.60 Studies on the efficacy of chondroitin sulfate in relieving arthrosis symptoms have provided contradictory results. Among others, one meta-analysis based on five meta-analyses with controls indicates that chondroitin sulfate shows a weak-to-moderate efficiency in the symptomatic treatment of arthrosis and that it has an excellent safety profile and is therefore not harmful to health.61 Another meta-analysis was based on six studies involving 1,502 patients; two of these studies aimed at determining the effects of glucosamine sulfate, and the other four, the effects of chondroitin sulfate. This meta-analysis concluded that glucosamine sulfate was not more efficient than the control after the first year of treatment; meanwhile, after three years of treatment, it provided a weak or moderate protective effect for the knees (an analogous result was obtained after two years of treatment with chondroitin sulfate).62 It was suggested that chondroitin sulfate preparations from various M a i n t a i n i n g a P r o p e r P h y s i o l o g i c a l B a l a n c e < 1 2 9 producers and animal sources (that is, pigs and cows) could differ greatly and presented different modes of action.

Colon-Emeric et al., “Meta-analysis: Excess mortality after hip fracture among older women and men,” Ann Intern Med, vol. 152, 2010, p. 380–90. B. J. Abelow, T.R. Holford and K.L. Insogna, “Cross-cultural association between dietary animal protein and hip fracture: A hypothesis,” Calcif Tissue Int, vol. 50, 1992, p. 14–18. D. Feskanich, W.C. Willet, M. J. Stampfer et al., “Milk, dietary calcium, and bone fractures in women: A 12-year prospective study,” Am J Public Health, vol. 87, 1997, p. 992–97; K. Michaelsson, H. Melhus, R. Bellocco et al., “Dietary calcium and vitamin D in relation to osteoporotic fracture risk,” Bone, vol. 32, 2003, p. 694–03. A. Bischoff-Ferrari, B. Dawson-Hughes, J.A. Baron et al., “Calcium intake and hip fracture risk in men and women: A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials,” Am J Clin Nutr, vol. 86, 2007, p. 1780–90; J.A.

A close look at the numerous studies carried out on the placebo effect clearly indicates that it is very variable and generally limited to subjective evaluations of pain.1 Also, meta-analyses of the placebo effect have provided a new perspective on the real value of placebos. A systematic review by A. Hróbjartsson and P. Gøtzsche of thirty-two clinical trials in a study including 3,795 patients, during which patients were randomly given either a placebo or no treatment, did not show any significant clinical effects of the placebo. In the second part of this review, a meta-analysis was also carried out involving eighty-two clinical trials and continuous followup of 4,730 patients. Placebos had some benefits, but these benefits diminished when the number of patients involved was much higher.2 The difference between placebo and no treatment at all was very significant when the issue being measured was subjective in nature (for example, self-reported pain, which is difficult to quantify) and was insignificant when the issue was objective (for example, the quantitative analysis of the presence of a certain substance in the blood).


pages: 322 words: 107,576

Bad Science by Ben Goldacre

Asperger Syndrome, correlation does not imply causation, experimental subject, hygiene hypothesis, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, John Snow's cholera map, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, offshore financial centre, p-value, placebo effect, publication bias, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), the scientific method, urban planning

They died, even when there was enough information available to know what would save them, because that information had not been synthesised together, and analysed systematically, in a meta-analysis. Back to homeopathy (you can see why I find it trivial now). A landmark meta-analysis was published recently in the Lancet. It was accompanied by an editorial titled: ‘The End of Homeopathy?’ Shang et al. did a very thorough meta-analysis of a vast number of homeopathy trials, and they found, overall, adding them all up, that homeopathy performs no better than placebo. The homeopaths were up in arms. If you mention this meta-analysis, they will try to tell you that it was a stitch-up. What Shang et al. did, essentially, like all the previous negative meta-analyses of homeopathy, was to exclude the poorer-quality trials from their analysis.

As with the fish-oil pills, Horrobin’s products were always in the news, but it was difficult to get hold of the research data. In 1989 he published a famous meta-analysis of trials in a dermatology journal which found that his lead product, evening primrose oil, was effective in eczema. This meta-analysis excluded the one available large published trial (which was negative), but included the two oldest studies, and seven small positive studies sponsored by his own company (these were still unavailable at the last review I could find, in 2003). In 1990 two academics had their review of the data binned by the journal after Horrobin’s lawyers got involved. In 1995 the Department of Health commissioned a meta-analysis from a renowned epidemiologist. This included ten unpublished studies held by the company which was marketing evening primrose oil.

The fact, however, that the average result of the 10 trials scoring 5 points on the Jadad score contradicts this notion, is consistent with the hypomesis that some (by no means all) methodologically astute and highly convinced homeopaths have published results that look convincing but are, in fact, not credible. But this is a curiosity and an aside. In the bigger picture it doesn’t matter, because overall, even including these suspicious studies, the ‘meta-analyses’ still show, overall, that homeopathy is no better than placebo. Meta-analyses? Meta-analysis This will be our last big idea for a while, and this is one that has saved the lives of more people than you will ever meet. A meta-analysis is a very simple thing to do, in some respects: you just collect all the results from all the trials on a given subject, bung them into one big spreadsheet, and do the maths on that, instead of relying on your own gestalt intuition about all the results from each of your little trials. It’s particularly useful when there have been lots of trials, each too small to give a conclusive answer, but all looking at the same topic.


How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain by Lisa Feldman Barrett

airport security, Albert Einstein, Albert Michelson, Drosophila, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, framing effect, Google Glasses, Isaac Newton, longitudinal study, luminiferous ether, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, Shai Danziger, Skype, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

When we peer into the brains of people who are experiencing emotion, or perceiving emotion in blinks, furrowed brows, muscle twitches, and the lilting voices of others, we see pretty clearly that key parts of these networks are hard at work. For starters, you might remember my lab’s meta-analysis that examined every published neuroimaging study of emotion, which we saw in chapter 1. We divided the entire brain into tiny cubes called “voxels” (akin to “pixels” of the brain), and then identified voxels that consistently showed a significant increase in activity for any of the emotion categories we studied. We could not localize a single emotion category to any brain region. This same meta-analysis also provided evidence for the theory of constructed emotion. We identified groups of voxels that activated together with high probability, like a network would. These groups of voxels consistently fell within the interoceptive and control networks.11 When you consider that our meta-analysis, at the time it was conducted, covered over 150 diverse, independent studies by hundreds of scientists, in which subjects viewed faces, smelled scents, listened to music, watched movies, remembered past events, and performed many other emotion-evoking tasks, the emergence of these networks is particularly compelling.

In other words, when studies distinguished anger from sadness from fear, they did not always replicate one another, implying that the instances of anger, sadness, and fear cultivated in one study were different from those cultivated in another.25 When faced with a large collection of diverse experiments like this, it’s hard to extract a consistent story. Fortunately, scientists have a technique to analyze all the data together and reach a unified conclusion. It’s called a “meta-analysis.” Scientists comb through large numbers of experiments conducted by different researchers, combining their results statistically. As a simple example, suppose you wanted to check if increased heart rate is part of the bodily fingerprint of happiness. Rather than run your own experiment, you could do a meta-analysis of other experiments that measured heart rate during happiness, even incidentally (e.g., the study could be about the relationship between sex and heart attacks and have nothing centrally to do with emotion). You would search for all the relevant scientific papers, collect the relevant statistics from them, and analyze them en masse to test the hypothesis.

We examined every published neuroimaging study on anger, disgust, happiness, fear, and sadness, and combined those that were usable statistically in a meta-analysis. Altogether, this comprised nearly 100 published studies involving nearly 1,300 test subjects across almost 20 years.43 To make sense of this large amount of data, we divided the human brain virtually into tiny cubes called voxels, the 3-D version of pixels. Then, for every voxel in the brain during every emotion studied in every experiment, we recorded whether or not an increase in activation was reported. Now we could compute the probability that each voxel would show an increase in activation during the experience or perception of each emotion. When the probability was greater than chance, we called it statistically significant. Figure 1-7: The human brain divided into voxels Our comprehensive meta-analysis found little to support the classical view of emotion.


Psychopathy: An Introduction to Biological Findings and Their Implications by Andrea L. Glenn, Adrian Raine

epigenetics, longitudinal study, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), statistical model, theory of mind, twin studies

Heart Psychophysiology >> 67 rate can be measured both at rest (number of beats per minute) and in response to a stimulus (heart rate reactivity). There are two basic measures of phasic heart rate activity. In response to the onset of a stimulus, the heart normally slows down for a brief period. This slowing is followed by a speeding of heart rate, termed an acceleratory response. Such responses are particularly common to aversive stimuli. Heart rate acceleration is thought to be a marker of affective arousal. In a meta-analysis of 17 studies, Lorber (2004) found no evidence of a relationship between psychopathy and resting heart rate or heart rate reactivity in adults, although lower resting heart rate was related to aggression more generally. However, in a later study of psychopathy, Serafim et al. (2009) found that, unlike controls and nonpsychopathic murderers, psychopathic murderers failed to show an increase in heart rate when viewing unpleasant, pleasant, or neutral pictures.

Variables such as age, sex, race, and stage of menstrual cycle, as well as environmental factors including temperature, humidity, time of day, day of week, and season, are found to affect skin conductance (Boucsein 1992) and therefore need to be considered as potential covariates in skin conductance data analyses. Skin conductance recordings have excellent temporal resolution. Resting The most basic skin conductance measure is resting levels of electrodermal activity. In a meta-analysis of studies, Lorber (2004) found that psychopathy was significantly associated with lower resting electrodermal activity across 18 studies, although the effect was small. Psychopathic adults have also been found to demonstrate fewer skin conductance fluctuations (Raine, Venables, and Williams 1996), or spontaneous changes in skin conductance, which are also thought to reflect arousal. Orienting Skin conductance orienting is a paradigm that is commonly used in psychophysiology studies to measure the orientation of attention toward potentially significant events.

Psychopathic 70 << Psychophysiology individuals have been found to demonstrate reduced skin conductance responses to facial expressions of sadness and fear (Blair 1999, Blair et al. 1997), imagined threat scenes (Patrick, Cuthbert, and Lang 1994), anticipated threat (Hare 1965, 1982, Hare, Frazelle, and Cox 1978, Ogloff and Wong 1990), and emotionally evocative sounds (Verona et al. 2004). Overall, in a meta-analysis of 28 studies, Lorber (2004) found psychopathy to be associated with reduced skin conductance activity during tasks. Age was a significant moderator, with studies of adults yielding larger effects than studies of children and adolescents. The effect for negative stimuli was also larger than the effect for nonnegative stimuli. Across 14 studies, skin conductance reactivity was also found to be significantly reduced in psychopathy (Lorber 2004).


pages: 381 words: 111,629

The Telomere Effect: A Revolutionary Approach to Living Younger, Healthier, Longer by Dr. Elizabeth Blackburn, Dr. Elissa Epel

Albert Einstein, epigenetics, impulse control, income inequality, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, phenotype, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell, survivorship bias, The Spirit Level, twin studies

., “Leucocyte Telomere Length and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: New Prospective Cohort Study and Literature-Based Meta-analysis,” PLOS ONE 9, no. 11 (2014): e112483, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0112483; D’Mello, M. J., et al., “Association Between Shortened Leukocyte Telomere Length and Cardiometabolic Outcomes: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Circulation: Cardiovascular Genetics 8, no. 1 (February 2015): 82–90, doi:10.1161/CIRCGENET ICS.113.000485; Haycock, P. C., et al., “Leucocyte Telomere Length and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” BMJ 349 (2014): g4227, doi:10.1136/bmj.g4227; Zhang, C., et al., “The Association Between Telomere Length and Cancer Prognosis: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis,” PLOS ONE 10, no. 7 (2015): e0133174, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0133174; and Adnot, S., et al., “Telomere Dysfunction and Cell Senescence in Chronic Lung Diseases: Therapeutic Potential,” Pharmacology & Therapeutics 153 (September 2015): 125–34, doi:10.1016/j.pharmthera.2015.06.007. 6.

Our breathing break is a modified version). 19. Bai, Z., et al., “Investigating the Effect of Transcendental Meditation on Blood Pressure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Journal of Human Hypertension 29, no. 11 (November 2015): 653–62. doi:10.1038/jhh.2015.6; and Cernes, R., and R. Zimlichman, “RESPeRATE: The Role of Paced Breathing in Hypertension Treatment,” Journal of the American Society of Hypertension 9, no. 1 (January 2015): 38–47, doi:10.1016/j.jash.2014.10.002. Master Tips for Renewal: Stress-Reducing Techniques Shown to Boost Telomere Maintenance 1. Morgan, N., M. R. Irwin, M. Chung, and C. Wang, “The Effects of Mind-Body Therapies on the Immune System: Meta-analysis,” PLOS ONE 9, no. 7 (2014): e100903, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100903. 2. Conklin, Q., et al., “Telomere Lengthening After Three Weeks of an Intensive Insight Meditation Retreat,” Psychoneuroendocrinology 61 (November 2015): 26–27, doi:10.1016/j.psyneuen.2015.07.462. 3.

.,”A Pilot Study of Yogic Meditation for Family Dementia Caregivers with Depressive Symptoms: Effects on Mental Health, Cognition, and Telomerase Activity,” International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry 28, no. 1 (January 2013): 57–65, doi:10.1002/gps.3790. 9. Desveaux, L., A. Lee, R. Goldstein, and D. Brooks, “Yoga in the Management of Chronic Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Medical Care 53, no. 7 (July 2015): 653–61, doi:10.1097/MLR.0000000000000372. 10. Hartley, L., et al., “Yoga for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease,” Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 5 (May 13, 2014): CD010072, doi:10.1002/14651858.CD010072.pub2. 11. Lu, Y. H., B. Rosner, G. Chang, and L. M. Fishman, “Twelve-Minute Daily Yoga Regimen Reverses Osteoporotic Bone Loss,” Topics in Geriatric Rehabilitation 32, no. 2 (April 2016): 81–87. 12. Liu, X., et al., “A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Effects of Qigong and Tai Chi for Depressive Symptoms,” Complementary Therapies in Medicine 23, no. 4 (August 2015): 516–34, doi:10.1016/j.ctim.2015.05.001. 13.


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The Barbell Prescription: Strength Training for Life After 40 by Jonathon Sullivan, Andy Baker

complexity theory, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, experimental subject, Gary Taubes, indoor plumbing, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral panic, phenotype, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), the scientific method, Y Combinator

Neurobiol Aging 2005; 26(1):31-35. Cooney GM, Dwan K, Greig CA, et al. Exercise for depression. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2013; doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD004366.pub6 Cornelissen VA, Fagard RH, Coeckelberghs E, Vanhees L. Impact of resistance training on blood pressure and other cardiovascular risk factors: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Hypertension 2011;58:950-958. Cornellisen VA, Fagard RH. Effect of resistance training on resting blood pressure: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. J Hypertension 2005;23(2):251-259. Cotman CW, Berchtold NC, Christie LA. Exercise builds brain health: key roles of growth factor cascades and inflammation. Trends Neurosci 2007;30(9):464-472. Cotman CW, Berchtold NC. Exercise: a behavioral intervention to enhance brain health and plasticity.

J Appl Physiol 1967;23:353-358. Sanderson TH, Kumar R, Sullivan JM et al. Insulin activates the PI3K-Akt survival pathway in vulnerable neurons following global brain ischemia. Neurol Res 2009;31(9):947-58. Sattar N, Preiss D, Murray HM, et al. Statins and risk of incident diabetes: a collaborative meta-analysis of randomized statin trials. Lancet 2010; 375(9716):735-742. Sattelmair J, Pertman J, Ding EL, et al. Dose-response between physical activity and risk of coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis. Circulation 2011;124:789-795. Savage P, Shaw AO, Miller MS, et al. Effect of resistance training on physical disability in chronic heart failure. Med Sci Sports Exerc 2011;43(8):1379-1386. Sawka MN, Burke LM, Eichner ER, et al. American College of Sports Medicine position stand. Exercise and fluid replacement.

J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 1997;52A(1):M27-M25. Siri-Tarino PW, Sun Q, Hu FB, et al. Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies evaluating the association of saturated fat with cardiovascular disease. Am J Clin Nut 2010;91(3):535–546. Siri-Tarino PW, Sun Q, Hu FB, Kraus RM. Saturated fat, carbohydrate, and cardiovascular disease. Am J Clin Nutr 2010;91(3):502-509. Skelly LE, Andrews PC, Gillen JB, et al. High-intensity interval exercise induces 24-h energy expenditure similar to traditional endurance exercise despite reduced time commitment. App Physiol Nut Metab 2014;39(7):845-848. Smart NA, Dieberg G, Giallauria F. Intermittent versus continuous exercise training in chronic heart failure: A meta-analysis. Int J Cardiol 2011;166(2):352-358. Smith MM, Sommer AJ, Starkoff BE, Devor ST.


pages: 312 words: 83,998

Testosterone Rex: Myths of Sex, Science, and Society by Cordelia Fine

assortative mating, Cass Sunstein, credit crunch, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, Drosophila, epigenetics, experimental economics, gender pay gap, George Akerlof, glass ceiling, helicopter parent, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, publication bias, risk tolerance

Will women be women? Analyzing the gender difference among financial experts. Kyklos, 61(3), 364–384. 51. Nelson (2014a), ibid. Quoted on p. 225. 52. Hönekopp, J., & Watson, S. (2010). Meta-analysis of digit ratio 2D:4D shows greater sex difference in the right hand. American Journal of Human Biology, 22, 619–630. 53. Voracek, M., Tran, U. S., & Dressler, S. G. (2010). Digit ratio (2D:4D) and sensation seeking: New data and meta-analysis. Personality and Individual Differences, 48(1), 72–77. Quoted on p. 76. 54. Herbert (2015), ibid. Quoted on p. 52. 55. Hönekopp, J., & Watson, S. (2011). Meta-analysis of the relationship between digit-ratio 2D:4D and aggression. Personality and Individual Differences, 51(4), 381–386. A small correlation was found for men only (r = –.08 for the left hand and r = –.07 for the right hand), but this reduced to a nonsignificant correlation for r = –.03 after correction for weak publication bias. 56.

A closer look at the actual pattern of sex differences in risk taking reveals important nuances that make this unworkable as an explanation. A good starting point is a large meta-analysis that collated studies of female/male differences in risk taking across a variety of domains (like hypothetical choices, drinking, drugs, sexual activity, and driving), and across five different age groups from middle childhood to adulthood.22 This analysis did indeed lead to the conclusion that males are more risk taking than females, on average. But about half of the differences were very modest, and in 20 percent of cases they were even in the “wrong” direction (that is, there was greater female risk taking). The meta-analysis also revealed changeable patterns of difference depending on the age group and the kind of risk. For example, studies of eighteen- to twenty-one-year olds found that males were a little more likely, on average, to report drinking and drug taking, and risky sexual activities.

Speaking as a woman: Structure and gender in domestic arguments in a New Guinea village. Cultural Anthropology, 8(4), 510–541. 82. Archer, J., & Coyne, S. M. (2005). An integrated review of indirect, relational, and social aggression. Personality and Social Psychology Review 9(3), 212–230. Quoted on p. 212. 83. See, for example, the meta-analysis by Archer, J. (2004). Sex differences in aggression in real-world settings: A meta-analytic review. Review of General Psychology, 8(4), 291–322. 84. Su, R., Rounds, J., & Armstrong, P. I. (2009). Men and things, women and people: A meta-analysis of sex differences in interests. Psychological Bulletin, 135(6), 859–884. 85. Lippa, R. A., Preston, K., & Penner, J. (2014). Women’s representation in 60 occupations from 1972 to 2010: More women in high-status jobs, few women in things-oriented jobs. PLOS One, 9(5). 86.


pages: 290 words: 86,718

The Estrogen Fix: The Breakthrough Guide to Being Healthy, Energized, and Hormonally Balanced by Mache Seibel

longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), women in the workforce, working poor, Yogi Berra

., “Body Mass Index and the Risk for Developing Invasive Breast Cancer among High-Risk Women in NSABP P-1 and STAR Breast Cancer Prevention Trials,” Cancer Prevention Research 5, no. 4 (April 2012): 583–92. 38W. Somboonporn, S. Panna, T. Temtanakitpaisan, et al., “Effects of the Levonorgestrel-Releasing Intrauterine System Plus Estrogen Therapy in Perimenopausal and Postmenopausal Women: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” Menopause 18, no. 10 (October 2011): 1060—66. 39M. M. Gaudet et al., “Active Smoking and Breast Cancer Risk: Original Cohort Data and Meta-Analysis,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 105, no. 8 (April 17, 2013): 515–25. 40C. M. Friedenreich et al., “Effects of a High vs Moderate Volume of Aerobic Exercise on Adiposity Outcomes in Postmenopausal Women: A Randomized Clinical Trial,” JAMA Oncology 1, no. 6 (September 2015): 766–76. 41“Exercise,” Breastcancer.org, last modified January 30, 2015, breastcancer.org/tips/exercise. 42“Breast Cancer Prevention and Early Detection,” American Cancer Society, last modified October 20, 2015, cancer.org/cancer/breastcancer/moreinformation/breastcancerearlydetection/index.

MedlinePlus, last modified October 21, 2015, https://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/007477.htm. 17Haas, “Minerals: Calcium,” healthy.net/scr/Article.aspx?Id=2019. 18S. Gandini et al., “Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies of Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels and Colorectal, Breast and Prostate Cancer and Colorectal Adenoma,” International Journal of Cancer 128, no. 6 (2011): 1414–24. 19“Vitamin D and Cancer Prevention,” National Cancer Institute, last modified October 21, 2013, cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/diet/vitamin-d-fact-sheet. 20A. R. Martineau, D. A. Jolliffe, R. L. Hooper, et al., “Vitamin D supplementation to Prevent Acute Respiratory Tract Infections: Systematic Review And Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data,” BMJ 356 (February 15, 2017): i6583; M. Urashima, T. Segawa, M. Segawa, et al., “Randomized Trial of Vitamin D Supplementation to Prevent Seasonal Influenza A in Schoolchildren,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 91, no. 5 (May 2010): 1255—60. 21D.

., “Long-Term Risk of Depressive and Anxiety Symptoms after Early Bilateral Oophorectomy,” Menopause 15, no. 6 (November–December 2008): 1050–59. 12W. A. Rocca et al., “Increased Risk of Cognitive Impairment or Dementia in Women Who Underwent Oophorectomy before Menopause,” Neurology 69, no. 11 (September 11, 2007): 1074–83. 13P. P. Zandi et al., “Hormone Replacement Therapy and Incidence of Alzheimer Disease in Older Women,” JAMA 288, no. 17 (2002): 2123–29. 14W. Xu et al., “Meta-Analysis of Modifiable Risk Factors for Alzheimer’s Disease,” Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery & Psychiatry (2015). 15M. A. Fischer et al., “Primary Medication Non-Adherence: Analysis of 195,930 Electronic Prescriptions,” Journal of General Internal Medicine 25 (2010): 284–90. 16V. A. Ravnikar, “Compliance with Hormone Therapy,” American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 156, no. 5 (May 1987): 1332–34. 17“Female Sexual Dysfunction,” WebMD, accessed September 24, 2015, webmd.com/women/guide/sexual-dysfunction-women. 18E.


Beyond Bigger Leaner Stronger: The Advanced Guide to Building Muscle, Staying Lean, and Getting Strong by Michael Matthews

agricultural Revolution, fear of failure, G4S, Gary Taubes, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial

BMC medicine 11, no. 1 (2013): 63. 233. He, F. J., C. A. Nowson, M. Lucas, and G. A. MacGregor. “Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables is related to a reduced risk of coronary heart disease: meta-analysis of cohort studies.” Journal of human hypertension21, no. 9 (2007): 717-728. 234. He, Feng J., Caryl A. Nowson, and Graham A. MacGregor. “Fruit and vegetable consumption and stroke: meta-analysis of cohort studies.” The Lancet 367, no. 9507 (2006): 320-326. 235. Hamer, Mark, and Yoichi Chida. “Intake of fruit, vegetables, and antioxidants and risk of type 2 diabetes: systematic review and meta-analysis.” Journal of hypertension 25, no. 12 (2007): 2361-2369. 236. Ramel, Alfons, J. Alfredo Martinez, Mairead Kiely, Narcisa M. Bandarra, and Inga Thorsdottir. “Moderate consumption of fatty fish reduces diastolic blood pressure in overweight and obese European young adults during energy restriction.”

“The role of dietary fat in body fatness: evidence from a preliminary meta-analysis of ad libitum low-fat dietary intervention studies.” British Journal of Nutrition 83, no. S1 (2000): S25-S32. 160. Burton-Freeman, Britt. “Dietary fiber and energy regulation.” The Journal of nutrition 130, no. 2 (2000): 272S-275S. 161. Institute of Medicine (US). Panel on Macronutrients, and Institute of Medicine (US). Standing Committee on the Scientific Evaluation of Dietary Reference Intakes. Dietary reference intakes for energy, carbohydrate, fiber, fat, fatty acids, cholesterol, protein, and amino acids. Vol. 1. Natl Academy Pr, 2005. 162. Flores-Mateo, Gemma, David Rojas-Rueda, Josep Basora, Emilio Ros, and Jordi Salas-Salvadó. “Nut intake and adiposity: meta-analysis of clinical trials.”The American journal of clinical nutrition 97, no. 6 (2013): 1346-1355. 163.

., Leonard Marquart, Joanne Slavin, and Lawrence H. Kushi. “Whole-grain intake and cancer: An expanded review and meta-analysis.”Nutrition and cancer 30, no. 2 (1998): 85-96. 257. http://www.health.harvard.edu/newsweek/The_nutrients_that_are_lost_when_grain_is_refined.htm 258. Masters, Rachel C., Angela D. Liese, Steven M. Haffner, Lynne E. Wagenknecht, and Anthony J. Hanley. “Whole and refined grain intakes are related to inflammatory protein concentrations in human plasma.” The Journal of nutrition 140, no. 3 (2010): 587-594. 259. Bazzano, Lydia A., Angela M. Thompson, Michael T. Tees, Cuong H. Nguyen, and Donna M. Winham. “Non-soy legume consumption lowers cholesterol levels: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.” Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases 21, no. 2 (2011): 94-103. 260.


pages: 402 words: 129,876

Bad Pharma: How Medicine Is Broken, and How We Can Fix It by Ben Goldacre

data acquisition, framing effect, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, income per capita, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Simon Singh, WikiLeaks

At the bottom, however, you can see the summary effect – a dot on this old-fashioned blobbogram, rather than a diamond. And you can see very clearly that overall, streptokinase saves lives. So what’s that on the right? It’s something called a cumulative meta-analysis. If you look at the list of studies on the left of the diagram, you can see that they are arranged in order of date. The cumulative meta-analysis on the right adds in each new trial’s results, as they arrived over history, to the previous trials’ results. This gives the best possible running estimate, each year, of how the evidence would have looked at that time, if anyone had bothered to do a meta-analysis on all the data available to them. From this cumulative blobbogram you can see that the horizontal lines, the ‘summary effects’, narrow over time as more and more data is collected, and the estimate of the overall benefit of this treatment becomes more accurate.

It would also allow cautious ‘subgroup analyses’, to see if a drug is particularly useful, or particularly useless, in particular types of patients. The biggest immediate benefit from data sharing is that combining individual patient data into a meta-analysis gives more accurate results than working with the crude summary results at the end of a paper. Let’s imagine that one paper reports survival at three years as the main outcome for a cancer drug, and another reports survival at seven years. To combine these two in a meta-analysis, you’d have a problem. But if you were doing the meta-analysis with access to individual patient data, with treatment details and death dates for all of them, you could do a clean combined calculation for three-year survival. This is exactly the kind of work being done in the area of breast cancer research, where a small number of charismatic and forceful scientists just happen to have driven a pioneering culture of easier collaboration.

Then, in October 2009, the company changed tack: they would like to hand the data over, they explained, but another meta-analysis was being conducted elsewhere. Roche had given them the study reports, so Cochrane couldn’t have them. This was a simple non-sequitur: there is no reason why many groups shouldn’t all work on the same question. In fact, quite the opposite: replication is the cornerstone of good science. Roche’s excuse made no sense. Jefferson asked for clarification, but never received a reply. Then, one week later, unannounced, Roche sent seven short documents, each around a dozen pages long. These contained excerpts of internal company documents on each of the clinical trials in the Kaiser meta-analysis. This was a start, but it didn’t contain anything like enough information for Cochrane to assess the benefits, or the rate of adverse events, or fully to understand exactly what methods were used in the trials.


The Impact of Early Life Trauma on Health and Disease by Lanius, Ruth A.; Vermetten, Eric; Pain, Clare

conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, delayed gratification, epigenetics, false memory syndrome, impulse control, intermodal, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, p-value, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), social intelligence, Socratic dialogue, theory of mind, twin studies, yellow journalism

.), Attachment in the preschool years:€Theory, research and intervention (pp. 161–184). Chicago, IL:€University of Chicago Press. 20. Madigan, S., Bakers-Kranenburg, M., van Ijzendoorn,€M. et al. (2006). Unresolved states of mind, anomalous parent behaviour, and disorganized attachment:€A review and meta-analysis of a transmission gap. Attachment and Human Development, 8, 89–111. 21. van Ijzendoorn, M., Schuengel, C. and BakermansKranenburg, M. (1999). Disorganized attachment in early childhood:€Meta-analysis of precursors, concomitants, and sequelae. Development and Psychopathology, 11, 225–249. 22. Fish, E. W., Shahrock, D., Bagot, R. et al. (2004). Epigenetic programming of stress responses through variations in maternal care. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1036, 167–180. 23. Gunnar, M. (2005).

We recently found a reduction in bilateral hippocampal volume in women with early childhood sexual abuse and PTSD, compared with abused women without PTSD and non-abused non-PTSD women [63]. We also found that smaller left hippocampal volume was observed in women with depression and a history of childhood abuse, but not in depressed women without childhood abuse [64]. In a 2005 meta-analysis study [65], data were pooled from all the published studies on hippocampal volume. There were smaller hippocampal volumes for both the left and the right sides, equally in adult men and women with chronic PTSD, and no change in children. Another meta-analysis published the same year had similar findings [66]. One study showed that women with abuserelated PTSD had deficits in hippocampal activation while performing a verbal declarative memory task [63]. Both hippocampal atrophy and hippocampalbased memory deficits were reversed with treatment with the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor paroxetine, which has been shown to �promote neurogenesis in the hippocampus in preclinical studies[67].

Childhood trauma associated with smaller hippocampal volume in women with major depression. American Journal of Psychiatry, 159, 2072–2080. 65. Kitayama, N., Vaccarino, V., Kutner, M., Weiss, P. and Bremner, J. D. (2005). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurement of hippocampal volume in posttraumatic stress disorder:€A meta-analysis. Journal of Affective Disorders, 88, 79–86. 66. Smith, M. E. (2005). Bilateral hippocampal volume reduction in adults with post-traumatic stress disorder:€A meta-analysis of structural MRI studies. Hippocampus, 15(6), 798–807. 67. Vermetten, E., Vythilingam, M., Southwick, S. M., Charney, D. S. and Bremner, J. D. (2003). Long-term treatment with paroxetine increases verbal declarative memory and hippocampal volume in posttraumatic stress disorder. Biological Psychiatry, 54, 693–702. 68.


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Hive Mind: How Your Nation’s IQ Matters So Much More Than Your Own by Garett Jones

centre right, clean water, corporate governance, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, en.wikipedia.org, experimental economics, Flynn Effect, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, hive mind, invisible hand, Kenneth Arrow, law of one price, meta analysis, meta-analysis, prediction markets, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Saturday Night Live, social intelligence, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, wikimedia commons, zero-sum game

The vast literature is too large to summarize here, but Hunt’s textbook (Human Intelligence) and Nisbett’s coauthored paper (Nisbett and others, “Intelligence: New Findings and Theoretical Developments”) both attempt to do so. The latter paper notes that a then-new meta-analysis reports “a conservative estimate that women’s math performance and Black students’ verbal performance are suppressed by about 0.2 [standard deviations]” although in some studies the effect is five times larger. Most would consider 0.2 standard deviations a small to moderate effect. A newer meta-analysis by Flore and Wicherts of studies of stereotype threat for females finds about the same effect size; see “Does Stereotype Threat Influence Performance of Girls in Stereotyped Domains?” And Hunt’s text notes that test score gaps between demographic groups tend to shrink when the tests have high stakes, such as in college examination settings.

Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004. Segal, Nancy L., and Scott L. Hershberger. “Cooperation and Competition Between Twins: Findings from a Prisoner’s Dilemma Game.” Evolution and Human Behavior 20, no. 1 (1999): 29–51. Shamosh, Noah A., and Jeremy R. Gray. “Delay Discounting and Intelligence: A Meta-Analysis.” Intelligence 36, no. 4 (2008): 289–305. Sharma, Sudeep, William Bottom, and Hillary Anger Elfenbein. “On the Role of Personality, Cognitive Ability, and Emotional Intelligence in Predicting Negotiation Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis.” Organizational Psychology Review 3, no. 4 (2013): 293–336. Solon, Orville, Travis J. Riddell, Stella A. Quimbo, Elizabeth Butrick, Glen P. Aylward, Marife Lou Bacate, and John W. Peabody. “Associations Between Cognitive Function, Blood Lead Concentration, and Nutrition Among Children in the Central Philippines.”

Smarter pairs leave less money on the table on average: they find more win-win deals. There’s some evidence overall that higher-scoring individual players get a bigger slice of a fixed pie, but the more interesting and more robust evidence is that higher-scoring pairs bake a bigger pie in the first place. There have been enough of these studies—both the formal prisoner’s-dilemma-style games and the informal negotiation games—that one group of authors were able to perform a meta-analysis.17 They checked to see if, taken as whole, looking across many studies, IQ-type tests were good predictors of cooperative behavior. The answer: yes, higher standardized test scores tend to predict win-win behavior. Machiavelli and the Mind Such cooperative tendencies [among early humans] probably evolved in two main ways. First, they are a by-product of the evolution of intelligence. As human intelligence developed, individuals could increasingly calculate that their long-term interest lay in keeping rather than breaking certain kinds of agreement. . . .


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Sleepyhead: Narcolepsy, Neuroscience and the Search for a Good Night by Henry Nicholls

A. Roger Ekirch, Donald Trump, double helix, Drosophila, global pandemic, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, placebo effect, Saturday Night Live, stem cell, web application, Yom Kippur War

Beall, ‘Confronting a Traumatic Event: Toward an Understanding of Inhibition and Disease’, Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 95.3 (1986), 274–81 <https://doi.org/10.1037//0021-843X.95.3.274>. p. 219 physical and psychological health Pasquale G. Frisna, Joan C. Borod, and Stephen J. Lepore, ‘A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Written Emotional Disclosure on the Health Outcomes of Clinical Populations’, Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 192.9 (2004), 629–34 <http://journals.lww.com/jonmd/Fulltext/2004/09000/A_Meta_Analysis_of_the_Effects_of_Written.8.aspx> [accessed 28 January 2017]. p. 219 onset of slumber Allison G. Harvey and Clare Farrell, ‘The Efficacy of a Pennebaker-Like Writing Intervention for Poor Sleepers’, Behavioral Sleep Medicine, 1.2 (2003), 115–24 <https://doi.org/10.1207/S15402010BSM0102_4>.

p. 243 stroke Yue Leng and others, ‘Sleep Duration and Risk of Fatal and Nonfatal Stroke: A Prospective Study and Meta-Analysis’, Neurology, 84.11 (2015), 1072–9 <https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.0000000000001371>. p. 243 coronary heart disease Francesco P. Cappuccio and Michelle A. Miller, ‘Is Prolonged Lack of Sleep Associated with Obesity?’, British Medical Journal, 342. (2011), 3306 <https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.d3306>. p. 243 die early Jane E. Ferrie and others, ‘A Prospective Study of Change in Sleep Duration: Associations with Mortality in the Whitehall II Cohort’, Sleep, 30.12 (2007), 1659; Francesco P. Cappuccio and others, ‘Sleep Duration and All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies’, Sleep, 33.5 (2010), 585–92. p. 243 moral judgements William A. Broughton and Roger J.

If the bedroom is only used for sleep, then sleep becomes a certainty. Bootzin prescribed that insomniacs should only go to bed when they are sleepy and if sleep doesn’t come in 15 minutes or so, they should get up and leave the bedroom. ‘This is one of the most powerful techniques to combat insomnia,’ says O’Regan. The evidence that stimulus control works comes mainly from studies in the 1980s and 1990s. Combining almost 60 of these into a meta-analysis published in 1994, researchers found stimulus control is effective, reducing the time taken to fall asleep by tens of minutes and how long people subsequently lie awake. As the desperation intensifies, the insomniac will often begin to chase sleep, going to bed a little earlier and staying in bed a touch longer, hoping beyond hope that they will get some rest. ‘This is a disaster,’ says O’Regan.


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Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst by Robert M. Sapolsky

autonomous vehicles, Bernie Madoff, biofilm, blood diamonds, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Brownian motion, car-free, clean water, cognitive dissonance, corporate personhood, corporate social responsibility, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, desegregation, different worldview, double helix, Drosophila, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Flynn Effect, framing effect, fudge factor, George Santayana, global pandemic, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, impulse control, income inequality, John von Neumann, Loma Prieta earthquake, long peace, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mohammed Bouazizi, Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay, mouse model, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, out of africa, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, placebo effect, publication bias, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Rosa Parks, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, stem cell, Steven Pinker, strikebreaker, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, traveling salesman, trickle-down economics, twin studies, ultimatum game, Walter Mischel, wikimedia commons, zero-sum game

Under those conditions, sustained intergroup contact generally decreases prejudices, often to a large extent and in a generalized, persistent manner. This was the conclusion of a 2006 meta-analysis of some five hundred studies comprising over 250,000 subjects from thirty-eight countries; beneficial effects were roughly equal for group differences in race, religion, ethnicity, or sexual orientation. As examples, a 1957 study concerning desegregation of the Merchant Marines showed that the more trips white seamen took with African Americans, the more positive their racial attitudes. Same for white cops as a function of time spent with African American partners.19 A more recent meta-analysis provides additional insights: (a) The beneficial effects typically involve both more knowledge about and more empathy for the Thems. (b) The workplace is a particularly effective place for contact to do its salutary thing.

., “Influence of Life Stress on Depression: Moderation by a Polymorphism in the 5-HTT Gene,” Sci 297 (2002): 851. 45. J. Buckholtz and A. Meyer-Lindenberg, “MAOA and the Neurogenetic Architecture of Human Aggression,” TINS 31 (2008): 120. 46. J. Kim-Cohen et al., “MAOA, Maltreatment, and Gene Environment Interaction Predicting Children’s Mental Health: New Evidence and a Meta-analysis,” Mol Psychiatry 11 (2006): 903; A. Byrd and S. Manuck, “MAOA, Childhood Maltreatment and Antisocial Behavior: Meta-analysis of a Gene-Environment Interaction,” BP 75 (2013): 9; G. Frazzetto et al., “Early Trauma and Increased Risk for Physical Aggression During Adulthood: The Moderating Role of MAOA Genotype,” PLoS ONE 2 (2007): e486; C. Widom and L. Brzustowicz, “MAOA and the ‘Cycle of Violence’: Childhood Abuse and Neglect, MAOA Genotype, and Risk for Violent and Antisocial Behavior,” BP 60 (2006): 684; R.

Mol Psychiatry 8 (2003): 840; M. R. Munafò et al., “Association of the Dopamine D4 Receptor (DRD4) Gene and Approach-Related Personality Traits: Meta-analysis and New Data,” BP 63 (2007): 197; R. Ebstein et al., “Dopamine D4 Receptor (D4DR) Exon III Polymorphism Associated with the Human Personality Trait of Novelty Seeking,” Nat Genetics 12 (1996): 78; J. Carpenter et al., “Dopamine Receptor Genes Predict Risk Preferences, Time Preferences, and Related Economic Choices,” J Risk and Uncertainty 42 (2011): 233; J. Garcia et al., “Associations Between Dopamine D4 Receptor Gene Variation with Both Infidelity and Sexual Promiscuity,” PLoS ONE 5 (2010): e14162; D. Li et al., “Meta-analysis Shows Significant Association Between Dopamine System Genes and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD),” Human Mol Genetics 15 (2006): 2276; L.


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The Half-Life of Facts: Why Everything We Know Has an Expiration Date by Samuel Arbesman

Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrew Wiles, bioinformatics, British Empire, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Chelsea Manning, Clayton Christensen, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, David Brooks, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, double helix, Galaxy Zoo, guest worker program, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, index fund, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, John Harrison: Longitude, Kevin Kelly, life extension, Marc Andreessen, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Nicholas Carr, P = NP, p-value, Paul Erdős, Pluto: dwarf planet, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, scientific worldview, social graph, social web, text mining, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation

Rather than be accused of subjectivity, or have to gain expertise in countless specific areas, Robinson and Goodman sidestepped these problems by doing something clever: They looked at meta-analyses. Meta-analysis is a well-known technique that can be used to extract more meaning from specific papers than could be gained from looking at each one alone. A meta-analysis combines the results of papers in a specific area in order to see if there is a consensus or if more precise results can be found. They are like the analyses of thermal conductivity for different elements mentioned in chapter 3, which use the results from lots of different articles to get a better picture of the shape of what we know about how these elements conduct heat. Assuming the meta-analyses bring together all the relevant trials, Robinson and Goodman simply looked through all the studies examined in each meta-analysis to see how many of the studies cited in the meta-analyses were also mentioned in each of the newer studies being examined.

Lau and his colleagues simply recognized that to be serious about this idea of cumulative knowledge, you have to truly combine all that we know and see what new facts we can learn. While Don Swanson combined papers from scientific areas that should have overlapped but didn’t, Lau and his colleagues combined papers from very similar areas that had never been combined, looking at them more carefully than they had been examined up until then. By using cumulative meta-analysis, hidden knowledge could have been revealed fifteen years earlier than it actually was and helped improve the health of countless individuals. Modern technology is beginning to aid cumulative meta-analysis and its development, and we can even now use computational techniques to employ Swanson’s methods on a grand scale. . . . WE are not yet at the stage where we can loose computers upon the stores of human knowledge only to return a week later with discoveries that would supplant those of Einstein or Newton in our scientific pantheon.

If you did that, Lau and his colleagues discovered, a researcher would have known that intravenous streptokinase was an effective treatment years before this finding was actually published. According to their research, scientists could have found a statistically significant result in 1973, rather than in 1988, and after only eight trials, if they had combined the disparate facts. This type of analysis is known as cumulative meta-analysis. What Lau and his colleagues realized was that meta-analyses can be viewed as a ratchet rather than simply an aggregation process, with each study moving scientific knowledge a little closer to the truth. This is ultimately what science should be: an accumulation of bits of knowledge, moving ever forward, or at least sweeping away error as best we can. Lau and his colleagues simply recognized that to be serious about this idea of cumulative knowledge, you have to truly combine all that we know and see what new facts we can learn.


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Randomistas: How Radical Researchers Changed Our World by Andrew Leigh

Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Anton Chekhov, Atul Gawande, basic income, Black Swan, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, Donald Trump, ending welfare as we know it, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science, experimental economics, Flynn Effect, germ theory of disease, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Indoor air pollution, Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Lyft, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Netflix Prize, nudge unit, offshore financial centre, p-value, placebo effect, price mechanism, publication bias, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, recommendation engine, Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, statistical model, Steven Pinker, uber lyft, universal basic income, War on Poverty

., ‘Mortality in randomized trials of antioxidant supplements for primary and secondary prevention: Systematic review and meta-analysis’, Journal of the American Medical Association, vol. 297, no. 8, 2007, pp. 842–57. For an informal discussion of the issue, see Norman Swan, ‘The health report’, ABC Radio National, 5 March 2007. The researchers were at pains to point out that their findings should not be extrapolated to foods that are rich in vitamins, such as fresh fruit and vegetables. 53H.C. Bucher, P. Hengstler, C. Schindler & G.Meier, ‘N-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in coronary heart disease: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials’, American Journal of Medicine, vol. 112, no. 4, 2002, pp. 298–304. 54E.C. Rizos, E.E. Ntzani, E. Bika, et al., ‘Association between omega-3 fatty acid supplementation and risk of major cardiovascular disease events: A systematic review and meta-analysis’, Journal of the American Medical Association, vol. 308, no. 10, 2012, pp. 1024–33. 55See Joseph J.

Since the late 1990s, places as diverse as Indianapolis, London and Canberra have been running experiments in which offenders were randomly directed either into restorative justice or the traditional judicial process. Some kinds of cases – such as family violence or fraud – aren’t suitable for restorative justice, but the experiments covered a wide range of other crimes, including assault, robbery and car theft. Combining the results of ten restorative justice experiments from around the world – a process known as meta-analysis – researchers concluded that it does cut crime.2 In the two years afterwards, offenders who went through the restorative justice process were significantly less likely to commit another crime. For society, the benefits more than covered the costs. In the London experiment, the gains from crime reduction were worth fourteen times more than the cost of running the restorative justice process. And in a result that surprised some theorists, restorative justice seems to work particularly well for violent crimes.

A follow-up found death rates of 26 per cent for the treatment group and 22 per cent for the control group: CRASH Trial Collaborators, ‘Final results of MRC CRASH, a randomised placebo-controlled trial of intravenous corticosteroid in adults with head injury—outcomes at 6 months’, The Lancet, vol. 365, no. 9475, 2005, pp. 1957–9. 48Roger Chou, Rongwei Fu, John A. Carrino & Richard A. Deyo, ‘Imaging strategies for low-back pain: Systematic review and meta-analysis’, The Lancet, vol. 373, no. 9662, 2009, pp. 463–72; G. Michael Allan, G. Richard Spooner & Noah Ivers, ‘X-Ray scans for nonspecific low back pain: A nonspecific pain?’ Canadian Family Physician, vol. 58, no. 3, 2012, p. 275. 49Allan, Spooner & Ivers, ‘X-Ray scans’, p. 275. 50Peter C. Gøtzsche & Karsten Juhl Jørgensen, ‘Screening for breast cancer with mammography’, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2013, Issue 6, 2013, article no.


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The Body Keeps the Score: Brain, Mind, and Body in the Healing of Trauma by Bessel van Der Kolk M. D.

anesthesia awareness, British Empire, conceptual framework, deskilling, different worldview, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, false memory syndrome, feminist movement, impulse control, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Nelson Mandela, phenotype, placebo effect, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), social intelligence, theory of mind, Yogi Berra

., “Preventing Child Abuse and Neglect with a Program of Nurse Home Visitation: The Limiting Effects of Domestic Violence,” JAMA 284, no. 11 (2000): 1385–91; D. I. Lowell, et al., “A Randomized Controlled Trial of Child FIRST: A Comprehensive Home-Based Intervention Translating Research into Early Childhood Practice,” Child Development 82, no. 1 (January/February 2011): 193–208; S. T. Harvey and J. E. Taylor, “A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Psychotherapy with Sexually Abused Children and Adolescents, Clinical Psychology Review 30, no. 5 (July 2010): 517–35; J. E. Taylor and S. T. Harvey, “A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Psychotherapy with Adults Sexually Abused in Childhood,” Clinical Psychology Review 30, no. 6 (August 2010): 749–67; Olds, Henderson, Chamberlin, & Tatelbaum, 1986; B. C. Stolbach, et al., “Complex Trauma Exposure and Symptoms in Urban Traumatized Children: A Preliminary Test of Proposed Criteria for Developmental Trauma Disorder,” Journal of Traumatic Stress 26, no. 4 (August 2013): 483–91.

., “Randomized Trial of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Chronic Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Adult Female Survivors of Childhood Sexual Abuse,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 73, no. 3 (2005): 515–24; Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, Treatment of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: An Assessment of the Evidence (Washington: National Academies Press, 2008); and R. Bradley, et al., “A Multidimensional Meta-Analysis of Psychotherapy for PTSD,” American Journal of Psychiatry 162, no. 2 (2005): 214–27. 39. J. Bisson, et al., “Psychological Treatments for Chronic Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” British Journal of Psychiatry 190 (2007): 97–104. See also L. H. Jaycox, E. B. Foa, and A. R. Morrall, “Influence of Emotional Engagement and Habituation on Exposure Therapy for PTSD,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 66 (1998): 185–92. 40. “Dropouts: in prolonged exposure (n = 53 [38%]); in present-centered therapy (n = 30 [21%]) (P = .002).

Sterman, “Neuropsychological Assessment of Subjects with Uncontrolled Epilepsy: Effects of EEG Feedback Training,” Epilepsia 29, no. 2 (1988): 163–71. 6. M. B. Sterman, L. R. Macdonald, and R. K. Stone, “Biofeedback Training of the Sensorimotor Electroencephalogram Rhythm in Man: Effects on Epilepsy,” Epilepsia 15, no. 3 (1974): 395–416. A recent meta-analysis of eighty-seven studies showed that neurofeedback led to a significant reduction in seizure frequency in approximately 80 percent of epileptics who received the training. Gabriel Tan, et al., “Meta-Analysis of EEG Biofeedback in Treating Epilepsy,” Clinical EEG and Neuroscience 40, no. 3 (2009): 173–79. 7. This is part of the same circuit of self-awareness that I described in chapter 5. Alvaro Pascual-Leone has shown how, when one temporarily knocks out the area above the medial prefrontal cortex with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), people can temporarily not identify whom they are looking at when they stare into the mirror.


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Peak: Secrets From the New Science of Expertise by Anders Ericsson, Robert Pool

Albert Einstein, deliberate practice, iterative process, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Rubik’s Cube, sensible shoes

. [>] students or the ballet dancers: Even some researchers forget this from time to time. As I was working on this book, a group of researchers published a meta-analysis—that is, an analysis of a large number of previously published studies—that concluded that structured practice (although they called it “deliberate practice”) explained relatively little of the difference in performance among individuals in various fields, including music, sports, education, and other professions. See Brooke N. Macnamara, David Z. Hambrick, and Frederick L. Oswald, “Deliberate practice and performance in music, games, sports, education, and professions: A meta-analysis,” Psychological Science 25 (2014): 1608–1618. The major problem with this meta-analysis was that few of the studies the researchers examined were actually looking at the effects of the type of practice on performance that we had referred to as deliberate practice; instead, the researchers used very loose criteria to decide which studies to include in their meta-analysis, so they ended up examining a collection of studies that dealt mainly with various types of practice and training that did not meet the criteria of deliberate practice as we described it earlier in this chapter.

The major problem with this meta-analysis was that few of the studies the researchers examined were actually looking at the effects of the type of practice on performance that we had referred to as deliberate practice; instead, the researchers used very loose criteria to decide which studies to include in their meta-analysis, so they ended up examining a collection of studies that dealt mainly with various types of practice and training that did not meet the criteria of deliberate practice as we described it earlier in this chapter. I offer a detailed critique of their work in K. Anders Ericsson, “Challenges for the estimation of an upper-bound on relations between accumulated deliberate practice and the associated performance in domains of expertise: Comments on Macnamara, Hambrick, and Oswald’s (2014) published meta-analysis,” available on my website, https://psy.fsu.edu/faculty/ericsson/ericsson.hp.html. The bottom line is that what their meta-analysis really demonstrated is that if you wish to understand why some people perform better than others, it is not sufficient to attempt to measure all hours engaged in just any sort of practice; you need to focus on the activities based on our criteria for deliberate practice.

Soumerai, “Systematic review: The relationship between clinical experience and quality of health care,” Annals of Internal Medicine 142 (2005): 260–273. See also Paul M. Spengler and Lois A. Pilipis, “A comprehensive meta-analysis of the robustness of the experience-accuracy effect in clinical judgment,” Journal of Counseling Psychology 62, no. 3 (2015): 360–378. [>] Another study of decision-making accuracy: Paul M. Spengler, Michael J. White, Stefanía Ægisdóttir, Alan S. Maugherman, Linda A. Anderson, Robert S. Cook, Cassandra N. Nichols, Georgios K. Lampropoulos, Blain S. Walker, Genna R. Cohen, and Jeffrey D. Rush, “The meta-analysis of clinical judgment project: Effects of experience on judgment accuracy,” Counseling Psychology 20 (2009): 350–399. [>] experienced nurses do not: K. Anders Ericsson, James Whyte 4th, and Paul Ward, “Expert performance in nursing: Reviewing research on expertise in nursing within the framework of the expert performance approach,” Advances in Nursing Science 30, no. 1 (2007): E58–E71. [>] Davis and a group of colleagues examined: Dave Davis, Mary Ann Thomson O’Brien, Nick Freemantle, Fredric M.


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The Big Fat Surprise: Why Butter, Meat and Cheese Belong in a Healthy Diet by Nina Teicholz

Albert Einstein, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, Gary Taubes, Indoor air pollution, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, Robert Gordon, selection bias, the scientific method, Upton Sinclair

Hunter, Graham A. Colditz, et al. “Association of Dietary Intake of Fat and Fatty Acids with Risk of Breast Cancer.” Journal of the American Medical Association 281, no. 10 (March 10, 1999): 914–920. Hooper, Lee, Paul A. Kroon, Eric B. Rimm, et al. “Flavonoids, Flavonoid-Rich Foods, and Cardiovascular Risk: a Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 88, no. 1 (July 2008): 38–50. Hopkins, Paul N. “Effects of Dietary Cholesterol on Serum Cholesterol: A Meta-Analysis and Review.” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55, no. 6 (June 1992): 1060–1070. Hornstra, Gerard, and Anna Vendelmans-Starrenburg. “Induction of Experimental Arterial Occlusive Thrombi in Rats.” Atherosclerosis 17, no. 3 (May–June 1973): 369–382. Horowitz, Roger. Putting Meat on the American Table: Taste, Technology, Transformation.

Journal of Lipid Research 12, no. 2 (March 1971): 233–247. Ramsden, Christopher E., Joseph R. Hibbeln, Sharon F. Majchrzak, and John M. Davis. “N-6 Fatty Acid-Specific and Mixed Polyunsaturate Dietary Interventions Have Different Effects on CHD Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials.” British Journal of Nutrition 104, no. 11 (December 2010): 1586–1600. Ramsden, Christopher E., Daisy Zamora, Boonseng Leelarthaepin, et al. “Use of Dietary Linoleic Acid for Secondary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease and Death: Evaluation of Recovered Data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study and Updated Meta-Analysis.” British Medical Journal 346 (February 4, 2013): doi:10.1136/bmj.e8707. Rand, Margaret L., Adje A. Hennissen, and Gerard Hornstra. “Effects of Dietary Palm Oil on Arterial Thrombosis, Platelet Responses and Platelet Membrane Fluidity in Rats.”

., “Effects of Dietary Cholesterol on the Regulation of Total Body Cholesterol in Man,” Journal of Lipid Research 12, no. 2 (1971): 233–247; Paul J. Nestel and Andrea Poyser, “Changes in Cholesterol Synthesis and Excretion When Cholesterol Intake Is Increased,” Metabolism 25, no. 12 (1976): 1591–1599. one of the most comprehensive analyses: Paul N. Hopkins, “Effects of Dietary Cholesterol on Serum Cholesterol: A Meta-Analysis and Review,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55, no. 6 (1992): 1060–1070. authorities in Britain and most other European nations: A. Stewart Truswell, “Evolution of Dietary Recommendations, Goals, and Guidelines,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 45, no. 5, suppl. (1987): 1068. The United States, however, has continued recommending: Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, prepared for the Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture and US Department of Health and Human Services, Report of the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee on the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010.


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How to Survive a Pandemic by Michael Greger, M.D., FACLM

coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, double helix, friendly fire, global pandemic, global supply chain, global village, inventory management, Kickstarter, mass immigration, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Journalism, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, phenotype, profit motive, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, statistical model, stem cell, supply-chain management, the medium is the message, Westphalian system, Y2K, Yogi Berra

Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 25(1):20–24. https://doi.org/10.1128/aac.25.1.20. 2782. Hemilä H. 2017. Zinc lozenges and the common cold: a meta-analysis comparing zinc acetate and zinc gluconate, and the role of zinc dosage. JRSM Open. 8(5):2054270417694291. https://doi.org/10.1177/2054270417694291. 2783. Singh M, Das RR. 2011. Zinc for the common cold. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2:CD001364. https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD001364.pub3. 2784. Hemilä H, Petrus EJ, Fitzgerald JT, Prasad A. 2016. Zinc acetate lozenges for treating the common cold: an individual patient data meta-analysis. Br J Clin Pharmacol. 82(5):1393–1398. https://doi.org/10.1111/bcp.13057. 2785. Hemilä H, Chalker E. 2015. The effectiveness of high dose zinc acetate lozenges on various common cold symptoms: a meta-analysis. BMC Fam Pract. 16:24. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12875-015-0237-6. 2786.

[accessed 2020 Apr 6]. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.30.015644. 2711. Jain V, Yuan J-M. 2020 Mar 16. Systematic review and meta-analysis of predictive symptoms and comorbidities for severe COVID-19 infection. medRxiv.org. [accessed 2020 Mar 31]. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20035360. 2712. Zhang Y. 2020 Feb 17. The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19)—China, 2020. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. CCDC Weekly. [accessed 2020 Mar 31]. http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51. 2713. Yang J, Zheng Y, Gou X, Pu K, Chen Z, Guo Q, Ji R, Wang H, Wang Y, Zhou Y. 2020. Prevalence of comorbidities in the novel Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Infect Dis. [Epub ahead of print 2020 Mar 12; accessed 2020 Mar 31]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.017. 2714.

[Epub ahead of print 2020 Mar 12; accessed 2020 Mar 31]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.017. 2714. Jain V, Yuan J-M. 2020 Mar 16. Systematic review and meta-analysis of predictive symptoms and comorbidities for severe COVID-19 infection. medRxiv.org. [accessed 2020 Mar 31]. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20035360. 2715. Jain V, Yuan J-M. 2020 Mar 16. Systematic review and meta-analysis of predictive symptoms and comorbidities for severe COVID-19 infection. medRxiv.org. [accessed 2020 Mar 31]. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20035360. 2716. Schlanger Z. 2020 Mar 27. Now is the time to take care of your lungs. Here’s how. New York Times. [accessed 2020 Mar 31]; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/climate/climate-pollution-coronavirus-lungs.html. 2717. Chen K, Wang M, Huang C, Kinney PL, Anastas PT. 2020 Mar 27.


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NurtureShock: New Thinking About Children by Po Bronson, Ashley Merryman

affirmative action, Columbine, delayed gratification, desegregation, hedonic treadmill, impulse control, index card, job satisfaction, lake wobegon effect, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial, social intelligence, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, theory of mind

Taggart, Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala, Andrew Currie, Ed Peile, Saverio Stranges, and Michelle A. Miller, “Meta-analysis of Short Sleep Duration and Obesity in Children and Adults,” Sleep, vol. 31, no. 5, pp. 619–626 (2008). Carins, A., J. Harsh, and M. LeBourgeois, “Napping in Children Is Related to Later Sleep Phase,” Journal of Sleep and Sleep Disorders Research, vol. 30, 2007 Abstract Supplement, p. A100 (2007). Chaput, J-P., M. Brunet, and A. Tremblay, “Relationship Between Short Sleeping Hours and Childhood Overweight/Obesity: Results From the ‘Québec en Forme’ Project,” International Journal of Obesity, vol. 30, no. 7, pp. 1080–1085 (2006). Chen, Xiaoli, May A. Beydoun, and Youfa Wang, “Is Sleep Duration Associated With Childhood Obesity? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Obesity, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 265–274 (2008). Chervin, Ronald D., Kristen Hedger Archbold, James E.

“It has to be based on a real thing—some skill or talent they have.” Once children hear praise they interpret as meritless, they discount not just the insincere praise, but sincere praise as well. Excessive praise also distorts children’s motivation; they begin doing things merely to hear the praise, losing sight of intrinsic enjoyment. Scholars from Reed College and Stanford reviewed over 150 praise studies. Their meta-analysis determined that praised students become risk-averse and lack perceived autonomy. The scholars found consistent correlations between a liberal use of praise and students’ “shorter task persistence, more eye-checking with the teacher, and inflected speech such that answers have the intonation of questions.” When they get to college, heavily-praised students commonly drop out of classes rather than suffer a mediocre grade, and they have a hard time picking a major—they’re afraid to commit to something because they’re afraid of not succeeding.

And in many districts, such as New York City and Chicago, students are not retested and remain in the program until they graduate from their school. Those admitted at kindergarten to private schools will stay through eighth grade. While the publishers of the tests aren’t trying to determine how well early intelligence tests predict later achievement, the academic researchers are. In 2003, Dr. Hoi Suen, Professor of Educational Psychology at Pennsylvania State University, published a meta-analysis of 44 studies, each of which looked at how well tests given in pre-K or in kindergarten predicted achievement test scores two years later. Most of the underlying 44 studies had been published in the mid-1970s to mid-1990s, and most looked at a single school or school district. Analyzing them together, Suen found that intelligence test scores before children start school, on average, had only a 40% correlation with later achievement test results.


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The Unpersuadables: Adventures With the Enemies of Science by Will Storr

Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, battle of ideas, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, British Empire, call centre, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, Credit Default Swap, David Attenborough, David Brooks, death of newspapers, full employment, George Santayana, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, Simon Singh, Stanford prison experiment, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, twin studies

In his book Doctoring the Mind, Bentall quotes multiple surveys of psychotic patients who have experienced ‘very high levels of sudden trauma, including violent incidents and sexual assaults, compared to the experiences of ordinary people.’ A typical example is a 2004 paper in the British Journal of Psychiatry that found the rate of childhood abuse in adults suffering psychosis to be fifteen times greater than expected. He is currently preparing to submit a meta-analysis to ‘one of the world’s top medical journals’ which will compile ten years of large-scale studies into the environmental causes of psychosis. ‘Just to tell you what the meta-analysis will say – the odds ratio is three. That means that somebody who has been sexually abused has a three times greater chance of becoming psychotic than somebody who has had a healthy childhood.’ I ask Bentall what he thinks of Ron Coleman’s contention that there is no such thing as schizophrenia. ‘Isn’t that a bit extreme?’

We had already shown he did not do that in the 30 trials, comparing long, medium and short, and there is no suggestion he was doing that in the randomised trials. But the control data show clearly that there was no such pattern. Wiseman simply ignores these data. You can see these in Fig. 5 of this paper: http://www.sheldrake.org/Articles&Papers/papers/animals/pdf/dog_video.pdf.’ 265 adding a meta-analysis that confirms his view: Dean Radin, ‘The Sense of Being Stared At: A Preliminary Meta-Analysis’, Journal of Consciousness Studies 12, no.6 (2005), pp. 95–100. 266 Computer pioneer Alan Turing once said: John Horgan, ‘Brilliant Scientists are Open-Minded about Paranormal Stuff, So Why Not You?’, Scientific American, 20 July 2012. 266 New Scientist has reported: Robert Matthews, ‘Opposites Detract’, New Scientist, 13 March 2004. 266 As far back as 1951, pioneering neuroscientist Donald Hebb admitted: Montague Ullman, The Comprehensive Textbook of Psychiatry, Vol. 3, 3rd edition, Chapter 56, Section 15, pp. 3235–45, 1980.

So what of the hundred and ten studies that Dr Alexander Tournier presented in his defence? Some of these may well conclude that homeopathy works, but are they any good? This is exactly what ‘Shang et al.’, the famous paper that Tournier referenced, sought to discover. When different scientists tackle the same problem and produce conflicting results, one way of making sense of them all is to conduct a meta-analysis. You take the trials, use complex mathematical formulae to blend their data and end up with what you hope is an ultimate conclusion. That is what Professor Aijing Shang’s team, at the University of Berne in Switzerland, sought to do for homeopathy. It was an ambitious project and inevitably controversial. After more than two hundred years of ferocious argument, we would finally know: Does homeopathy work?


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Late Bloomers: The Power of Patience in a World Obsessed With Early Achievement by Rich Karlgaard

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Bernie Madoff, Bob Noyce, Brownian motion, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, experimental economics, fear of failure, financial independence, follow your passion, Frederick Winslow Taylor, hiring and firing, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, Sand Hill Road, science of happiness, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, Toyota Production System, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, working poor

Jane Ferguson, “Health for the World’s Adolescents: A Second Chance in the Second Decade,” Journal of Adolescent Health 56, no. 1 (2015): 3–6. first experience symptoms at age fourteen: Ibid. “The deaths are but the tip”: Bichell, “Suicide Rates Climb.” “It’s not an exaggeration”: Jean M. Twenge et al., “It’s Beyond My Control: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis of Increasing Externality in Locus of Control, 1960–2002,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 8 (2004): 308–19; J. Twenge et al., “Birth Cohort Increases in Psychopathology Among Young Americans, 1938–2007: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis of the MMPI,” Clinical Psychology Review 30 (2010): 145–54. For historical data on intrinsic and extrinsic values, see J. H. Pryor et al., The American Freshman: Forty-Year Trends, 1966–2006 (Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, 2007). “being well off financially”: Pryor et al., The American Freshman.

With empathy, we feel another’s pain: Jeffrey Weiner, “Managing Compassionately,” LinkedIn Pulse, October 15, 2012, http://bit.ly/​2xwmoaT. Among college students: Sasha Zarins and Sara Konrath, “Changes over Time in Compassion-Related Variables in the United States,” in The Oxford Handbook of Compassion Science, ed. Emma M. Seppälä et al. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016); Sara H. Konrath, Edward H. O’Brien, and Courtney Hsing, “Changes in Dispositional Empathy in American College Students over Time: A Meta-Analysis,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 15, no. 2 (2011): 180–98. They show greater reflective thinking: Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi and Kevin Rathunde, “The Psychology of Wisdom: An Evolutionary Interpretation,” in Wisdom: Its Nature, Origins, and Development, ed. Robert J. Sternberg (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990); V. P. Clayton and J. E. Birren, “The Development of Wisdom Across the Life Span: A Reexamination of an Ancient Topic,” in Life-Span Development and Behavior, ed.

Van Vonderen and William Kinnally, “Media Effects on Body Image: Examining Media Exposure in the Broader Context of Internal and Other Social Factors,” American Communication Journal 14, no. 2 (2012): 41–57; Rebecca Coleman, “The Becoming of Bodies: Girls, Media Effects, and Body Image,” Feminist Media Studies 8, no. 2 (2008): 163–79; Shelly Grabe, L. Monique Ward, and Janet Shibley Hyde, “The Role of the Media in Body Image Concerns Among Women: A Meta-Analysis of Experimental and Correlational Studies,” Psychological Bulletin 134, no. 3 (2008): 460; Patti M. Valkenburg, Jochen Peter, and Joseph B. Walther, “Media Effects: Theory and Research,” Annual Review of Psychology 67 (2016): 315–38; Christopher P. Barlett, Christopher L. Vowels, and Donald A. Saucier, “Meta-Analyses of the Effects of Media Images on Men’s Body-Image Concerns,” Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 27, no. 3 (2008): 279–310; Brad J.


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Lost Connections: Uncovering the Real Causes of Depression – and the Unexpected Solutions by Johann Hari

basic income, Berlin Wall, call centre, correlation does not imply causation, Donald Trump, gig economy, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, John Snow's cholera map, Joi Ito, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, Occupy movement, open borders, placebo effect, precariat, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, Rat Park, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), the scientific method, The Spirit Level, twin studies, universal basic income, urban planning, zero-sum game

The numbers showed that 50 percent Ibid., 9–11. For this and the next chapter, I also drew on (amongst many other studies): Irving Kirsch and Guy Sapirstein, “Listening to Prozac but Hearing Placebo: A Meta-Analysis of Antidepressant Medication,” Prevention & Treatment 1, no. 2 (June 1998); Kirsch, “Anti-depressants and the Placebo Effect,” Z Psychol 222, no 3 (2014): 128–134, doi: 10.1027/2151-2604/a000176; Kirsch, “Challenging Received Wisdom: Antidepressants and the Placebo Effect,” MJM 11, no. 2 (2008): 219–222, PMCID: PMC2582668; Kirsch et al., “Initial Severity and Antidepressant Benefits: A Meta-Analysis of Data Submitted to the Food and Drug Administration,” http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0050045; Kirsch et al., “The emperor’s new drugs: An analysis of antidepressant medication data submitted to the U.S.

There’s a good graph of antidepressant prescriptions in relation to ACE scores too in Vincent Felitti, Chadwick’s Child Maltreatment, 208. In the years that followed, the study has been replicated many times For some meta-analyses, see for example: A. Danese and M. Tan, “Childhood maltreatment and obesity: systematic review and meta-analysis,” Molecular Psychiatry 19 (May 2014): 544–554; Nanni et al., “Childhood Maltreatment Predicts Unfavorable Course of Illness and Treatment Outcome in Depression: A Meta-Analysis,” American Journal of Psychiatry 169, no. 2 (Feb. 2012): 141–151. There’s a house fire inside many of us George Brown and Tirril Harris did some interesting research with similar—but not identical—findings. For an overview see Where Inner and Outer Worlds Meet, 16–20, 227–40. he learned that Allen Barbour, an internist at Stanford University Felitti, Chadwick’s Child Maltreatment, 209.

sid=86b4a57d-2323-41a5-ae9e-e6cbf406b142; http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v429/n6992/full/429589a.html; all as accessed January 3, 2017; Wayne Kondro and Barb Sibbald, “Drug company experts advised staff to withhold data about SSRI use in children,” Canadian Medical Association Journal 170, no. 5 (March 2004): 783. The journal concluded they shouldn’t be prescribed to teenagers any more. Andrea Cipriani et al., “Comparative efficacy and tolerability of antidepressants for major depressive disorder in children and adolescents: a network meta-analysis,” The Lancet 338, no. 10047 (Aug. 2016): 881–890, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30385-3, as accessed November 1, 2016. but they were going to carry on promoting it anyway To understand the wider context for how this could have happened, I’d recommend three really terrific books: Ben Goldacre, Bad Pharma: How Drug Companies Mislead Doctors and Harm Patients (London: Fourth Estate, 2012); Marcia Angell, The Truth About Drug Companies: How They Deceive Us and What We Can Do About It (New York: Random House, 2004); Harriet A.


he Wisdom of Menopause (Revised Edition) by Northrup, Christiane

epigenetics, financial independence, Kickstarter, life extension, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell, women in the workforce

.), 1413S–1471S. 22. Scheiber, M., & Setchell, K. (June 1999). Dietary soy isoflavones favorably influence lipids and bone turnover in healthy postmenopausal women. Endocrine Society’s 81st Annual Meeting Synopsis. 23. Taku, K., et al. (2007). Soy isoflavones lower serum total and LDL cholesterol in humans: A meta-analysis of 11 randomized controlled trials. Am J Clin Nutr, 85 (4), 1148–1156; Zhuo, X. G., Melby, M. K., & Watanabe, S. (2004). Soy isoflavone intake lowers serum LDL cholesterol: A meta-analysis of 8 randomized controlled trials in humans. J Nutr, 134, 2395–2400. 24. Anderson, J. W., Johnstone, B. M., & Cook-Newell, M. E. (1995). Metaanalysis of the effects of soy protein intake on serum lipids. N Engl J Med, 333 (5), 276–282. 25. Hall, W. L., et al. (2005). Soy-isoflavone-enriched foods and inflammatory biomarkers of cardiovascular disease risk in postmenopausal women: Interactions with genotype and equol production.

Circulation, 99 (4), 591–595. 75. Anderson, J. W., et al. (1995). Meta-analysis of the effects of soy protein intake on serum lipids. N Engl J Med, 333 (5), 276–282. 76. Nelson, G. J., & Chamberlain, J. G. (1995). The effects of dietary alphalinolenic acid on blood lipids and lipoproteins in humans. In Cunnane, S. C., & Thompson, L. U. (eds.). Flaxseed in Human Nutrition. Champaign, IL: AOCS Press; Nestel, P. J., Pomeroy, S. E., Sasahard, T., et al. (1997). Arterial compliance in obese subjects is improved with dietary plant n-3 fatty acid from flaxseed oil despite increased LDL oxidizability. Arterioscler Throm Vasc Biol, 17, 1163–1170. 77. Li, S. H., et al. (2010). Effect of oral isoflavone supplementation on vascular endothelial function in postmenopausal women: A meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled trials.

MORE REASON TO AVOID PROCESSED FOODS The added sugars in processed foods aren’t the only reason they’re unhealthy for you. The sodium and preservatives these foods often contain are also far from harmless. Recent research from the Harvard School of Public Health shows for the first time that processed meats contribute to higher levels of both diabetes and heart disease.17 According to a 2010 meta-analysis that examined data from twenty different studies looking at one million adults from ten countries around the world, daily consumption of 50 grams of processed meat (the equivalent of either one typical U.S. hot dog or two slices of deli meat) was associated with a 42 percent higher risk of coronary heart disease and a 19 percent increased risk of diabetes. Processed meats were defined as those that had been preserved by smoking, curing, or salting (which also includes sausage and bacon).


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Deep Medicine: How Artificial Intelligence Can Make Healthcare Human Again by Eric Topol

23andMe, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, bioinformatics, blockchain, cloud computing, cognitive bias, Colonization of Mars, computer age, computer vision, conceptual framework, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, David Brooks, digital twin, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, fault tolerance, George Santayana, Google Glasses, ImageNet competition, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, Joi Ito, Mark Zuckerberg, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, natural language processing, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nudge unit, pattern recognition, performance metric, personalized medicine, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, recommendation engine, Rubik’s Cube, Sam Altman, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, text mining, the scientific method, Tim Cook: Apple, War on Poverty, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, working-age population

Chief among these is to change patterns of maladaptive thinking or behavior—to “help people to identify and change negative, self-destructive thought patterns.”45 The digital version of CBT is more simply defined: talk therapy. It appears to have similar efficacy for treating depression (at least mild to moderate types) as the labor-intensive face-to-face visits with a mental health professional. There are plenty of CBT mobile apps including Lantern, Joyable, MoodGYM, and Ginger.io. A meta-analysis of eighteen randomized control trials of more than 3,400 patients using twenty-two smartphone apps for treating depression showed significant improvement, and those apps based on CBT were particularly effective.46 All those apps studied involve interactions with human beings, but not all apps rely on human interaction. Wysa, a penguin chatbot, has attracted 50,000 users who engaged in a million conversations in just three months; more than five hundred wrote in comments to say how much it helped with their mental health problem.47 Woebot uses an instant messenger app to conduct sessions with users.

Heslin, “Patient Perceptions About Their Physician in 2 Words: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.” JAMA Surg, 2017. 152(12): pp. 1169–1170. 9. Brody, B., “Why I Almost Fired My Doctor,” New York Times. October 12, 2017. 10. Oaklander, M., “Doctors on Life Support,” Time. 2015. 11. Panagioti, M., et al., “Association Between Physician Burnout and Patient Safety, Professionalism, and Patient Satisfaction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” JAMA Intern Med, 2018. 12. Wang, M. D., R. Khanna, and N. Najafi, “Characterizing the Source of Text in Electronic Health Record Progress Notes.” JAMA Intern Med, 2017. 177(8): pp. 1212–1213. 13. Jha, S., “To put this in perspective. Your ATM card works in Outer Mongolia, but your EHR can’t be used in a different hospital across the street.” Twitter, 2017. 14. Welch, H. G., et al., “Breast-Cancer Tumor Size, Overdiagnosis, and Mammography Screening Effectiveness.”

Khanna, and N. Najafi, “Characterizing the Source of Text in Electronic Health Record Progress Notes.” JAMA Intern Med, 2017. 177(8): pp. 1212–1213. 3. Bach, B., “Stanford-Google Digital-Scribe Pilot Study to Be Launched,” in Scope. 2017, Stanford Medicine. 4. Moja, L., et al., “Effectiveness of Computerized Decision Support Systems Linked to Electronic Health Records: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” Am J Public Health, 2014. 104(12): pp. e12–22. 5. Horwitz, R. I., et al., “From Evidence Based Medicine to Medicine Based Evidence.” Am J Med, 2017. 130(11): pp. 1246–1250. 6. Lacy, M. E., et al., “Association of Sickle Cell Trait with Hemoglobin A1c in African Americans.” JAMA, 2017. 317(5): pp. 507–515. 7. Wong, T. Y., and N. M. Bressler, “Artificial Intelligence with Deep Learning Technology Looks into Diabetic Retinopathy Screening.”


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Period Repair Manual, Second Edition: Natural Treatment for Better Hormones and Better Periods by Lara Briden, Jerilynn Prior

crowdsourcing, en.wikipedia.org, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, stem cell

One study found that avoiding wheat eliminated migraines in 89 percent of patients [269]. Magnesium has long been a favorite for migraine prevention, which makes sense since fifty percent of migraine sufferers are deficient in the mineral. The prominent neurologist Dr. Alexander Mauskop from the New York Headache Center recommends all migraine patients be treated with magnesium [270]. Magnesium recently did well in a recent meta-analysis study for migraines [271]. How it works: It calms your nervous system, reduces inflammation, and stabilizes serotonin receptors. Magnesium also prevents the release of substance-P, which is a pain-promoting neurotransmitter involved in migraines. What else you need to know: I recommend 300 mg of magnesium glycinate. You can take an extra dose of magnesium if you feel a migraine coming on. It works well in combination with 100 mg of vitamin B6.

PubMed PMID: 23481259 94: Swardfager W, Herrmann N, McIntyre RS, Mazereeuw G, Goldberger K, Cha DS, et al. Potential roles of zinc in the pathophysiology and treatment of major depressive disorder. Neurosci Biobehav Rev. 2013 Jun;37(5):911-29. PubMed PMID: 23567517 95: Long SJ, Benton D. Effects of vitamin and mineral supplementation on stress, mild psychiatric symptoms, and mood in nonclinical samples: a meta-analysis. Psychosom Med. 2013 Feb;75(2):144-53. PubMed PMID: 23362497 96: Hung SK, Perry R, Ernst E. The effectiveness and efficacy of Rhodiola rosea L.: a systematic review of randomized clinical trials. Phytomedicine. 2011 Feb 15;18(4):235-44. PubMed PMID: 21036578 97: Olsson EM, von Schéele B, Panossian AG. A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group study of the standardised extract shr-5 of the roots of Rhodiola rosea in the treatment of subjects with stress-related fatigue.

PubMed PMID: 12792658 107: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071212201311.htm 108: http://www.bmj.com/content/357/bmj.j2353 109: Topiwala A, Allan CL, Valkanova V, Zsoldos E, Filippini N, Sexton C, et al. Moderate alcohol consumption as risk factor for adverse brain outcomes and cognitive decline: longitudinal cohort study. BMJ. 2017 Jun 6;357:j2353. PubMed PMID: 28588063 110: Sun K, Ren M, Liu D, Wang C, Yang C, Yan L. Alcohol consumption and risk of metabolic syndrome: a meta-analysis of prospective studies. Clin Nutr. 2014 Aug;33(4):596-602. PubMed PMID: 24315622 111: Lowe PP, Gyongyosi B, Satishchandran A, Iracheta-Vellve A, Ambade A, Kodys K, et al. Alcohol-related changes in the intestinal microbiome influence neutrophil infiltration, inflammation and steatosis in early alcoholic hepatitis in mice. PLoS One. 2017;12(3):e0174544. PubMed PMID: 28350851 112: Zhang SM, Lee IM, Manson JE, Cook NR, Willett WC, Buring JE.


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The Art of Rest: How to Find Respite in the Modern Age by Claudia Hammond

Anton Chekhov, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, Desert Island Discs, Donald Trump, El Camino Real, iterative process, Kickstarter, lifelogging, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, Stephen Hawking, The Spirit Level, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen

One hypothesis is that the intricacy of the music might lead to patterns of cortical firing in the brain similar to those associated with solving spatial puzzles. Over the years further research has followed and a meta-analysis gathering together and re-analysing sixteen more studies has confirmed that listening to Mozart does lead to a temporary improvement in the ability to mentally manipulate shapes.4 So listening to Mozart can enhance one very specific and – let’s face it – not very useful task, but if you like listening to Mozart anyway, then I guess an improvement in your skills at mental shape manipulation is a bonus. But what if you don’t like listening to Mozart? Well, don’t fret. A few years after the meta-analysis was published, it began to emerge that there was nothing special about Mozart’s music per se. In 2006 another experiment took place. This time it involved children and this time there weren’t just thirty-six participants, but an impressive 8,000.

The children listened to one of three ten-minute excerpts of audio: Mozart’s String Quintet in D Major, a discussion about the experiment or a medley of three songs – Blur’s ‘Country House’, Mark Morrison’s ‘Return of the Mack’ and PJ and Duncan’s ‘Stepping Stone’. Once again music did improve the children’s ability to predict unfolded paper shapes, but this time it wasn’t a Mozart effect so much as a Blur boost. The children who listened to Mozart did well, but with the medley of pop music they did even better, perhaps because they preferred it.5 In 2010 a larger meta-analysis confirmed that listening to music only results in a small improvement in spatial skills, and that other types of music work just as well as Mozart. The authors of this study even named their paper ‘Mozart effect–Schmozart effect’.6 One study found that hearing a passage from a Stephen King novel read out loud improved your spatial skills just as much, provided you enjoyed it. This suggests that what matters is not the precise notes you hear but how much you engage with whatever you are listening to.7 To do better at predictive origami all you need is a little cognitive arousal – the chance for your mind to get a little more active.

‘Mindfulness Interventions’. Annual Review of Psychology, 68, 491–516 7 Goleman, D. & Davidson, R.J. (2017) The Science of Meditation: How to Change Your Brain, Mind and Body. London: Penguin 8 Baer, R.A. et al (2004). ‘Assessment of Mindfulness by Self-report: The Kentucky Inventory of Mindfulness Skills’. Assessment, 11 (3), 191–206 9 Giluk, T.L. (2015) ‘Mindfulness, Big Five Personality, and Affect: A Meta-analysis’. Personality and Individual Differences, 47, 805–81 10 Gawrysiak, M.J. et al (2018) ‘The Many Facets of Mindfulness & the Prediction of Change Following MBSR’. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 74 (4), 523–35 11 Shapiro, S.L. et al (2011) ‘The Moderation of Mindfulness-based Stress Reduction Effects by Trait Mindfulness: Results from a Randomised Controlled Trial’. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 67 (3), 267–77 12 Galante J. et al (2017) ‘A Mindfulness-based Intervention to Increase Resilience to Stress in University Students (The Mindful Student Study): A Pragmatic Randomised Controlled Trial’.


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The Art of Statistics: Learning From Data by David Spiegelhalter

Antoine Gombaud: Chevalier de Méré, Bayesian statistics, Carmen Reinhart, complexity theory, computer vision, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, dark matter, Edmond Halley, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science, Hans Rosling, Kenneth Rogoff, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nate Silver, Netflix Prize, p-value, placebo effect, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, recommendation engine, replication crisis, self-driving car, speech recognition, statistical model, The Design of Experiments, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Malthus

Two final key points: Don’t rely on a single study: A single statin trial may tell us that the drug worked in a particular group in a particular place, but robust conclusions require multiple studies. Review the evidence systematically: When looking at multiple trials, make sure to include every study that has been done, and so create what is known as a systematic review. The results may then be formally combined in a meta-analysis. For example, a recent systematic review put together evidence from twenty-seven randomized trials of statins, which included more than 170,000 people at lower risk of cardiovascular disease.4 But rather than focusing on the difference between the groups allocated to taking statins and controls, they instead estimated the effect of reducing LDL. Essentially they assume the effect of a statin is achieved through changing blood lipids, and based their calculation on the average reduction in LDL seen in each trial, which allows for any non-compliance with allocated treatment.

So out of 1,000 people taking a statin, around 31 heart attacks were prevented – this means that around 30 people had to take a statin for five years to prevent one heart attack. We have ignored the possibility that any observed relationship is not causal at all, but simply the result of chance. Most drugs on the market have only moderate effects, and only help a minority of people who take them, and their overall benefit can only be reliably detected by large, meticulous, randomized trials. Statin trials are huge, especially when put together in a meta-analysis, which means that the results discussed here cannot be put down to chance variation. (We shall see how to check this in Chapter 10.) Is prayer effective? The list of principles for RCTs is not new: they were nearly all introduced in 1948 in what is generally considered the first proper clinical trial. This was of streptomycin, a drug prescribed for tuberculosis. It was bold to randomly allocate patients to either receive or go without this potentially life-saving treatment, but the decision was helped by the fact that there was not enough of the drug for everyone at the time in the UK, and so random allocation seemed a fair and ethical way to decide who should get it.

What am I not being told? This is perhaps the most important question of all. Think about cherry-picked results, missing information that would conflict with the story, and lack of independent comment. HOW TRUSTWORTHY IS THE INTERPRETATION? How does the claim fit with what else is known? Consider the context, appropriate comparators, including historical data, and what other studies have shown, ideally in a meta-analysis. What’s the claimed explanation for whatever has been seen? Vital issues are correlation v. causation, regression to the mean, inappropriate claim that a non-significant result means ‘no effect’, confounding, attribution, prosecutor’s fallacy. How relevant is the story to the audience? Think about generalizability, whether the people being studied are a special case, has there been an extrapolation from mice to people.


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Smartcuts: How Hackers, Innovators, and Icons Accelerate Success by Shane Snow

3D printing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, attribution theory, augmented reality, barriers to entry, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, David Heinemeier Hansson, deliberate practice, disruptive innovation, Elon Musk, Fellow of the Royal Society, Filter Bubble, Google X / Alphabet X, hive mind, index card, index fund, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, lateral thinking, Law of Accelerating Returns, Lean Startup, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, popular electronics, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Ruby on Rails, Saturday Night Live, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, superconnector

McManus, Shana A. Simon, and Joyce E. A. Russell. “The Protege’s Perspective Regarding Negative Mentoring Experiences: The Development of a Taxonomy.” Journal of Vocational Behavior 57, no. 1 (2000): 1–21. Eby, Lillian T., Tammy D. Allen, Sarah C. Evans, Thomas Ng, and David L. DuBois. “Does Mentoring Matter? A Multidisciplinary Meta-Analysis Comparing Mentored and Non-Mentored Individuals.” Journal of Vocational Behavior 72, no. 2 (2008): 254–67. Ellington, Aimee J. “A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Calculators on Students’ Achievement and Attitude Levels in Precollege Mathematics Classes.” Journal for Research in Mathematics Education 34, no. 5 (2003): 433–63. English, T. J. Havana Nocturne: How the Mob Owned Cuba and Then Lost It to the Revolution. William Morrow, 2008. Finkelstein, Stacey R., and Ayelet Fishbach.

Underhill, “The Effectiveness of Mentoring Programs in Corporate Settings: A Meta-analytical Review of the Literature,” Journal of Vocational Behavior 68 (2006): 292–307, shows that informal mentoring has a greater effect than formal mentoring. A later study found that formal and informal mentorship results in various activities (work, youth, academic) were small, but generally positive: Lillian T. Eby, Tammy D. Allen, Sarah C. Evans, Thomas Ng, and David L. DuBois, “Does Mentoring Matter? A Multidisciplinary Meta-Analysis Comparing Mentored and Non-mentored Individuals,” Journal of Vocational Behavior 72, no. 2 (2008): 254–67. 44 “Searching for a mentor has become the professional equivalent”: Sheryl Sandberg, Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead (Alfred A. Knopf, 2013). 46 journey-focused mentorship and not just a focus on practice: Further research shows that when protégés open up to their mentors—what my friend and NextJump.com founder Charlie Kim calls “vulnerability”—they tend to achieve more positive results: Connie R.

Staats, KC Diwas, and Francesca Gino, “Learning from My Success and from Others’ Failure: Evidence from Minimally Invasive Cardiac Surgery,” Management Science 59, no. 11 (2013): 2435–49. 68 a hundred years of these studies: Kluger and DeNisi examine the “contradictory and seldom straight-forward” outcomes of feedback intervention studies over the decades in Avraham N. Kluger and Angelo DeNisi, “The Effects of Feedback Interventions on Performance: A Historical Review, a Meta-Analysis, and a Preliminary Feedback Intervention Theory,” Psychological Bulletin 119, no. 2 (1996): 254–84, and find that more than one-third of feedback decreases performance. “The results suggest that FI [feedback intervention] effectiveness decreases as attention moves up the hierarchy closer to the self and away from the task,” they write. 68 vastly preferred negative feedback: As people gain expertise, they shift from desiring positive feedback to desiring negative, write Stacey R.


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The Book of Woe: The DSM and the Unmaking of Psychiatry by Gary Greenberg

addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, back-to-the-land, David Brooks, impulse control, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Snow's cholera map, Kickstarter, late capitalism, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, McMansion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, phenotype, placebo effect, random walk, selection bias, statistical model, theory of mind, Winter of Discontent

Frances thought there was a way to protect the system from both instability and pontificating: meta-analysis, a statistical method that, thanks to advances in computer technology and statistical modeling, had recently allowed statisticians to compile results from large numbers of studies by combining disparate data into common terms. The result was a statistical synthesis by which many different research projects could be treated as one large study. “We needed something that would leave it up to the tables rather than the people,” he told me, and meta-analysis was perfect for the job. “The idea was you would have to present evidence in tabular form that would be so convincing it would jump up and grab people by the throats.” “We put a lot of faith in meta-analysis,” Frances told me. Not that he expected to use meta-analysis to sort out the arguments, at least not very often.

Not that he expected to use meta-analysis to sort out the arguments, at least not very often. “You need lots of data from lots of sources for a meta-analysis,” he said. “And I knew that the literature didn’t have the data. I knew we couldn’t do a real meta-analysis of most of what would come up.” If someone brought up one of those off-the-cuff ideas in a meeting, or collared him with a pet proposal at dinner, Frances would just tell him to bring him the data, which he was pretty sure didn’t exist. Meta-analysis would protect the DSM-IV (not to mention Frances) from the pontificators, the profession from confusion, the common language from its own tenuousness. With statistics guarding the gate, the revision would be modest. It might also be boring, but, Frances says, “dull is better than arbitrary.” Seven years after he met with Pincus, when the DSM-IV was released, it was nearly four hundred pages longer than the DSM-III-R, but most of the expansion was in the explanatory sections.

(Apparently, Schatzberg couldn’t imagine another way for doctors to learn about new drugs other than from the sales forces of the companies that make them; perhaps he also buys his cars based on what his dealer tells him.) “The strident debate and attacks have obfuscated the negative impact of eliminating industry from our offices,” he complained. As unjust as it might have been, however, the drug company purge seemed irreversible. The APA was going to have to make up that $10 million deficit somehow. The organization won’t say how much revenue it anticipates from a new DSM, but you don’t have to run a meta-analysis to figure out that a new book would be worth far more at its outset than the $6 million the DSM-IV generated in 2010. Leaders of the APA would not confirm the old suspicion that money was a driving force behind the revision (although one trustee did tell me that “it would be disastrous not to get that income”), but that looming bonanza had to be looking pretty good—if only they could get their hands on it.


Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, anti-pattern, Anton Chekhov, autonomous vehicles, bank run, barriers to entry, Bayesian statistics, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, business process, butterfly effect, Cal Newport, Clayton Christensen, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Attenborough, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, discounted cash flows, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, fear of failure, feminist movement, Filter Bubble, framing effect, friendly fire, fundamental attribution error, Gödel, Escher, Bach, hindsight bias, housing crisis, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, illegal immigration, income inequality, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John Nash: game theory, lateral thinking, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, Lyft, mail merge, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Metcalfe’s law, Milgram experiment, minimum viable product, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Network effects, nuclear winter, offshore financial centre, p-value, Parkinson's law, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, placebo effect, Potemkin village, prediction markets, premature optimization, price anchoring, principal–agent problem, publication bias, recommendation engine, remote working, replication crisis, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Schrödinger's Cat, selection bias, Shai Danziger, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, survivorship bias, The Present Situation in Quantum Mechanics, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, uber lyft, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto, wikimedia commons

Both are types of self-fulfilling prophecies. As with fixed and growth mindsets, there is an ongoing debate on the strength of these effects across different circumstances. The original studies in classroom settings have also been criticized, but stronger effects have been shown in other settings, such as organizational leadership. For example, a meta-analysis in the October 2009 issue of Leadership Quarterly found the Pygmalion leadership style to be the most effective of the methods studied. This meta-analysis of two hundred different studies on leadership methods was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense and compared Pygmalion leadership interventions with traditional methods (popular ideas from the 1970s and earlier) as well as newer techniques described variously as charismatic, inspirational, transformational, or visionary methods.

Recall that in a normal distribution, about 68 percent of values fall within one standard deviation, and 95 percent within two. Any isolated experiment can result in a false positive or a false negative and can also be biased by myriad factors, most commonly selection bias, response bias, and survivorship bias. Replication increases confidence in results, so start by looking for a systematic review and/or meta-analysis when researching an area. Always keep in mind that when dealing with uncertainty, the values you see reported or calculate yourself are uncertain themselves, and that you should seek out and report values with error bars! 6 Decisions, Decisions IF YOU COULD KNOW HOW your decisions would turn out, decision making would be so easy! It is hard because you have to make decisions with imperfect information.

Participants were asked to assist an experimenter (the authority figure) in a “learning experiment.” They were then asked to give increasingly high electric shocks to “the learner” when they made a mistake. The shocks were fake, but the participant wasn’t told that at the time; the learner was really an actor who pretended to feel pain when the “shocks” were sent. This study has been replicated many times, and a meta-analysis (see Chapter 5) found that participants were willing to administer fatal voltages 28 percent to 91 percent of the time! In less dramatic settings, authority can still be powerful. Authority explains why celebrity endorsements work, though which types of celebrity endorsements are the most effective changes over time. Nowadays kids are less likely to know Hollywood celebrities and more likely to be influenced by YouTubers or Instagrammers.


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Mind in Motion: How Action Shapes Thought by Barbara Tversky

Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Asperger Syndrome, augmented reality, clean water, continuous integration, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, fundamental attribution error, Hans Rosling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Snow's cholera map, Lao Tzu, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, neurotypical, patient HM, Richard Feynman, Steven Pinker, the new new thing, theory of mind, urban planning

Gender and mental rotation Halpern, D. F. (2013). Sex differences in cognitive abilities. New York, NY: Psychology Press. Linn, M. C., & Petersen, A. C. (1985). Emergence and characterization of sex differences in spatial ability: A meta-analysis. Child Development, 56(6), 1479–1498. Voyer, D. (2011). Time limits and gender differences on paper-and-pencil tests of mental rotation: A meta-analysis. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 18(2), 267–277. Voyer, D., Voyer, S., & Bryden, M. P. (1995). Magnitude of sex differences in spatial abilities: A meta-analysis and consideration of critical variables. Psychological Bulletin, 117, 250–270. Gender and object recognition Herlitz, A., & Lovén, J. (2013). Sex differences and the own-gender bias in face recognition: A meta-analytic review. Visual Cognition, 21(9–10), 1306–1336.

Cognitive empathy contributes to poor social functioning in schizophrenia: Evidence from a new self-report measure of cognitive and affective empathy. Psychiatry Research, 220, 803–810. New York Times. (2013, October 3). Can you read people’s emotions [blog post]. Retrieved from https://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/03/well-quiz-the-mind-behind-the-eyes/ Warrier, V., Grasby, K. L., Uzefovsky, F., Toro, R., Smith, P., Chakrabarti, B.,… Baron-Cohen, S. (2018). Genome-wide meta-analysis of cognitive empathy: Heritability, and correlates with sex, neuropsychiatric conditions and cognition. Molecular Psychiatry, 23(6), 1402–1409. doi:10.1038/mp.2017.122 Eyes dominate mouths in interpreting emotion Lee, D. H., & Anderson, A. K. (2017). Reading what the mind thinks from what the eye sees. Psychological Science, 28(4) 494–503. doi:10.1177/0956797616687364 Rapid judgments of trust in faces predict elections outcomes Ballew, C.

., & Kita, S. (2008). Spontaneous gestures during mental rotation tasks: Insights into the microdevelopment of the motor strategy. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 137(4), 706. Wexler, M., Kosslyn, S. M., & Berthoz, A. (1998). Motor processes in mental rotation. Cognition, 68(1), 77–94. Mental rotation activates motor cortex Zacks, J. M. (2008). Neuroimaging studies of mental rotation: A meta-analysis and review. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 20(1), 1–19. Mental rotation of one’s body Parsons, L. M. (1987). Imagined spatial transformation of one’s body. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 116(2), 172. Parsons, L. M. (1987). Imagined spatial transformations of one’s hands and feet. Cognitive Psychology, 19(2), 178–241. Zacks, J. M., Ollinger, J. M., Sheridan, M. A., & Tversky, B. (2002).


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The Nocturnal Brain: Nightmares, Neuroscience, and the Secret World of Sleep by Dr. Guy Leschziner

23andMe, Berlin Wall, British Empire, impulse control, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, phenotype, stem cell, twin studies

., Leschziner, G. D., Morrell, M. J., Hsiung, G. Y., Rosenzweig, I., Sepehry, A. A., ‘The Association Between Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Alzheimer’s Disease: A Meta-Analysis Perspective’, Front Aging Neurosci, 12 April 2016, 8(78). Yu, J., Zhou, Z., McEvoy, R. D., Anderson, C. S., Rodgers, A., Perkovic, V., Neal, B., ‘Association of Positive Airway Pressure With Cardiovascular Events and Death in Adults With Sleep Apnea: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis’, JAMA, 11 July 2017, 318(2): 156—66. Abuzaid, A. S., Al Ashry, H. S., Elbadawi, A., Ld, H., Saad, M., Elgendy, I. Y., Elgendy, A., Mahmoud, A. N., Mentias, A., Barakat, A., Lal, C., ‘Meta-Analysis of Cardiovascular Outcomes With Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Therapy in Patients With Obstructive Sleep Apnea’, Am J Cardiol, 15 August 2017, 120(4): 693—9.

., ‘Association between light at night, melatonin secretion, sleep deprivation, and the internal clock: Health impacts and mechanisms of circadian disruption’, Life Sci, 15 March 2017, 173: 94—106. doi: 10.1016/j.lfs.2017.02.008. Travis, R. C., Balkwill, A., Fensom, G. K., Appleby, P. N., Reeves, G. K., Wang, X. S., Roddam, A. W., Gathani, T., Peto, R., Green, J., Key, T. J., Beral, V., ‘Night Shift Work and Breast Cancer Incidence: Three Prospective Studies and Meta-analysis of Published Studies’, J Natl Cancer Inst, 6 October 2016, 108(12). Chapter 2: In the Still of the Night Bargiotas, P., Arnet, I., Frei, M., Baumann, C. R., Schindler, K., Bassetti, C. L., ‘Demographic, Clinical and Polysomnographic Characteristics of Childhood-and Adult-Onset Sleepwalking in Adults’, Eur Neurol, 2017, 78(5—6): 307—11. Bassetti, C., Vella, S., Donati, F., Wielepp, P., Weder, B., ‘SPECT during sleepwalking’, Lancet, 5 August 2000, 356(9228): 484–5.

., Xiong, L., Montplaisir, J., Gan-Or, Z., Perola, M., Vodicka, P., Dina, C., Franke, A., Tittmann, L., Stewart, A. F. R., Shah, S. H., Gieger, C., Peters, A., Rouleau, G. A., Berger, K., Oexle, K., Di Angelantonio, E., Hinds, D. A., Müller-Myhsok, B., Winkelmann, J., ‘Identification of novel risk loci for restless legs syndrome in genome-wide association studies in individuals of European ancestry: a meta-analysis’, 23andMe Research Team, DESIR study group, Lancet Neurol, November 2017, 16(11): 898—907. doi: 10.1016/S1474-4422(17)30327-7. Review. Winkelmann, J., Allen, R. P., Högl, B., Inoue, Y., Oertel, W., Salminen, A. V., Winkelman, J. W., Trenkwalder, C., Sampaio, C., ‘Treatment of restless legs syndrome: Evidence-based review and implications for clinical practice (Revised 2017)’, Mov Disord, 14 May 2018. doi: 10.1002/ mds.27260.


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Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World by Adam Grant

Albert Einstein, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, availability heuristic, barriers to entry, business process, business process outsourcing, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dean Kamen, double helix, Elon Musk, fear of failure, Firefox, George Santayana, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, job-hopping, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum viable product, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, risk tolerance, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Wisdom of Crowds, women in the workforce

Newton, “Overconfidence in the Communication of Intent: Heard and Unheard Melodies,” Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University (1990); Chip Heath and Dan Heath, Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die (New York: Random House, 2007). John Kotter studied change agents: John P. Kotter, Leading Change (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1996). The mere exposure effect: Robert B. Zajonc, “Attitudinal Effects of Mere Exposure,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology Monographs 9 (1968): 1–27. the more familiar a face: Robert F. Bornstein, “Exposure and Affect: Overview and Meta-Analysis of Research, 1968–1987,” Psychological Bulletin 106 (1989): 265–89; Robert B. Zajonc, “Mere Exposure: A Gateway to the Subliminal,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 10 (2001): 224–28; Eddie Harmon-Jones and John J. B. Allen, “The Role of Affect in the Mere Exposure Effect: Evidence from Psychophysiological and Individual Differences Approaches,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 27 (2001): 889–98.

the middle of the status hierarchy actually makes us less original: Michelle M. Duguid and Jack A. Goncalo, “Squeezed in the Middle: The Middle Status Trade Creativity for Focus,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 109, no. 4 (2015), 589–603. strong gender-role stereotypes: Anne M. Koenig, Alice H. Eagly, Abigail A. Mitchell, and Tiina Ristikari, “Are Leader Stereotypes Masculine? A Meta-Analysis of Three Research Paradigms,” Psychological Bulletin 127 (2011): 616–42. “labeled bossy”: Sheryl Sandberg, Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead (New York: Knopf, 2013). voicing new revenue-generating ideas: Sheryl Sandberg and Adam Grant, “Speaking While Female,” New York Times, January 12, 2015, www.nytimes.com/2015/01/11/opinion/sunday/speaking-while-female.html; Adam M. Grant, “Rocking the Boat But Keeping It Steady: The Role of Emotion Regulation in Employee Voice,” Academy of Management Journal 56 (2013): 1703–23.

Demographic and Structural Status Cues in Voice Recognition,” Journal of Applied Psychology, forthcoming (2015). Sexual harassment, she concludes: Jennifer L. Berdahl, “The Sexual Harassment of Uppity Women,” Journal of Applied Psychology 92 (2007): 425–37. they’re being communal: Jens Mazei, Joachim Hüffmeier, Philipp Alexander Freund, Alice F. Stuhlmacher, Lena Bilke, and Guido Hertel, “A Meta-Analysis on Gender Differences in Negotiation Outcomes and Their Moderators,” Psychological Bulletin 141 (2015): 85–104; Emily T. Amanatullah and Michael W. Morris, “Negotiating Gender Roles: Gender Differences in Assertive Negotiating Are Mediated by Women’s Fear of Backlash and Attenuated When Negotiating on Behalf of Others,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 98 (2010): 256–67; Hannah Riley Bowles, Linda Babcock, and Kathleen L.


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Against Empathy: The Case for Rational Compassion by Paul Bloom

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, Atul Gawande, Columbine, David Brooks, Donald Trump, effective altruism, Ferguson, Missouri, impulse control, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Paul Erdős, period drama, Peter Singer: altruism, publication bias, Ralph Waldo Emerson, replication crisis, Ronald Reagan, social intelligence, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steven Pinker, theory of mind, Walter Mischel, Yogi Berra

Cleckley, The Mask of Sanity: An Attempt to Clarify Some Issues About the So-Called Psychopathic Personality (Augusta, GA: Emily S. Cleckley, 1988), cited by Prinz, “Is Empathy Necessary.” A different concern is raised Skeem et al., “Psychopathic Personality.” 201 a meta-analysis summarized David D. Vachon, Donald R. Lynam, and Jarrod A. Johnson, “The (Non) Relation Between Empathy and Aggression: Surprising Results from a Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 140 (2014): 751–73. People with Asperger’s syndrome Ruth C. M. Philip et al., “A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the fMRI Investigation of Autism Spectrum Disorders,” Neuroscience and Biobehavioral Reviews 36 (2012): 901–42. See also Simon Baron-Cohen, The Science of Evil: On Empathy and the Origins of Cruelty (New York: Basic Books, 2012). Baron-Cohen points out Baron-Cohen, Science of Evil. 202 Some of the most interesting Smith, Less Than Human.

Individuals with low empathy don’t have such a force inhibiting them, so there should be some correlation between being low in empathy and being badly behaved. But here, at least, I’m giving empathy too much credit. A recent paper reviewed the findings from all available studies of the relationship between empathy and aggression. The results are summarized in the title: “The (Non)Relation between Empathy and Aggression: Surprising Results from a Meta-Analysis.” They report that only about 1 percent of the variation in aggression is accounted for by lack of empathy. This means that if you want to predict how aggressive a person is, and you have access to an enormous amount of information about that person, including psychiatric interviews, pen-and-paper tests, criminal records, and brain scans, the last thing you would bother to look at would be measures of the person’s empathy.

The Psychopathy Checklist is predictive of future bad behavior not because it assesses empathy and related sentiments but because, first, it contains items that assess criminal history and current antisocial behavior—questions about juvenile delinquency, criminal versatility, parasitic lifestyle—and, second, it contains items that have to do with lack of inhibition and poor impulse control. This conclusion about psychopaths fits well with what we know about aggressive behavior in nonpsychopaths. As we discussed in an earlier chapter, a meta-analysis summarized the data from all studies that looked at the relationship between empathy and aggression, including verbal aggression, physical aggression, and sexual aggression. It turns out that the relationship is surprisingly low. So here’s what we can say about psychopaths and empathy: They do tend to be low in empathy. But there is no evidence that this lack of empathy is responsible for their bad behavior.


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Invisible Women by Caroline Criado Perez

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, augmented reality, Bernie Sanders, collective bargaining, crowdsourcing, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, falling living standards, first-past-the-post, gender pay gap, gig economy, glass ceiling, Grace Hopper, Hacker Ethic, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, lifelogging, low skilled workers, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nate Silver, new economy, obamacare, Oculus Rift, offshore financial centre, pattern recognition, phenotype, post-industrial society, randomized controlled trial, remote working, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, speech recognition, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Levy, the built environment, urban planning, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

In 2011 the World Cancer Research Fund complained that only 50% of studies into the impact of diet on cancer that included both men and women disaggregated their data by sex, making it hard to establish dietary guidelines for cancer prevention that are valid for both sexes.82 Women, for example, should probably eat more protein than men as they age (because of muscle mass loss), but ‘the optimal dose per meal to support muscle protein synthesis in older women has not been determined’.83 The failure to sex-disaggregate when you’ve actually gone to the effort of including both sexes is baffling, not to mention, as Londa Schiebinger at Stanford University puts it, ‘money wasted [and] research that is lost to future meta-analysis’.84 And when female representation in trials is so low, the ability to conduct meta-analysis can mean the difference between life and death. In 2014 a review of the FDA database of a cardiac resynchronisation therapy device (CRT-D – essentially a more complicated kind of pacemaker) trials found that women made up about 20% of participants.85 The number of women included in each individual study was so low that separating out the data for men and women didn’t reveal anything statistically significant.

A doctor I spoke to described CRT-Ds as ‘symptom control’. They aren’t a cure, but they prevent many early deaths, and if your heart takes 150 milliseconds or longer to complete a full electrical wave, you should have one implanted. If your heart completes a full circuit in under that time, you wouldn’t benefit from one. Unless, the meta-analysis found, you happened to be female. While the 150 milliseconds threshold worked for men, it was twenty milliseconds too high for women. This may not sound like much, but the meta-analysis found that women with an electrical wave of between 130-49 milliseconds had a 76% reduction in heart failure or death and a 76% reduction in death alone from having the advanced pacemaker implanted. But these women would not be given the device under the guidelines. And so because the trials treated male bodies as the default, and women as a side-show, they had condemned hundreds of women to avoidable heart failure and death.

Schools are teaching little girls that brilliance doesn’t belong to them. No wonder that by the time they’re filling out university evaluation forms, students are primed to see their female teachers as less qualified. Schools are also teaching brilliance bias to boys. As we saw in the introduction, following decades of ‘draw a scientist’ studies where children overwhelmingly drew men, a recent ‘draw a scientist’ meta-analysis was celebrated across the media as showing that finally we were becoming less sexist.44 Where in the 1960s only 1% of children drew female scientists, 28% do now. This is of course an improvement, but it is still far off reality. In the UK, women actually outnumber men in a huge range of science degrees: 86% of those studying polymers, 57% of those studying genetics, and 56% of those studying microbiology are female.45 And in any case, the results are actually more complicated than the headlines suggest and still provide damning evidence that data gaps in school curriculums are teaching children biases.


Entangled Life: How Fungi Make Our Worlds, Change Our Minds & Shape Our Futures by Merlin Sheldrake

biofilm, buy low sell high, carbon footprint, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, discovery of penicillin, experimental subject, Fellow of the Royal Society, Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, late capitalism, low earth orbit, Mason jar, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, moral panic, NP-complete, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, the built environment, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Malthus, traveling salesman

with the natural world: For the role of psilocybin in treating tobacco addiction see Johnson et al. (2014 and 2015); for psilocybin-induced “openness” and life satisfaction see MacLean et al. (2011); for a general discussion of the role of psychedelics in treating addiction see Pollan (2018), ch. 6, pt. 2; for sense of connection with the natural world see Lyons and Carhart-Harris (2018) and Studerus et al. (2011). There is a long tradition of Native American communities using the psychedelic cactus peyote as a treatment for alcoholism. Between the 1950s and the 1970s, a number of studies investigated the possibility that psilocybin and LSD could be used to treat drug addiction. Several reported positive effects. In 2012, a meta-analysis pooled the data from the most rigorously controlled trials. It reported that a single dose of LSD had a beneficial effect on alcohol misuse that lasted up to six months (Krebs and Johansen [2012]). In an online survey designed to investigate the “natural ecology” of the phenomenon, Matthew Johnson and his colleagues analyzed accounts from more than three hundred people who reported that they had reduced their tobacco intake or stopped entirely following an experience with psilocybin or LSD (Johnson et al. [2017]).

Cellular responses of the lichen Circinaria gyrosa in Mars-like conditions. Frontiers in Microbiology 9: 308. Delaux PM, Radhakrishnan GV, Jayaraman D, Cheema J, Malbreil M, Volkening JD, Sekimoto H, Nishiyama T, Melkonian M, Pokorny L, et al. 2015. Algal ancestor of land plants was preadapted for symbiosis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112: 13390–395. Delavaux CS, Smith-Ramesh L, Kuebbing SE. 2017. Beyond nutrients: a meta-analysis of the diverse effects of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi on plants and soils. Ecology 98: 2111–119. Deleuze G, Guattari F. 2005. A Thousand Plateaus: Capitalism and Schizophrenia. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press. de los Ríos A, Sancho L, Grube M, Wierzchos J, Ascaso C. 2005. Endolithic growth of two Lecidea lichens in granite from continental Antarctica detected by molecular and microscopy techniques.

Signaling for growth orientation and cell differentiation by surface topography in Uromyces. Science 235: 1659–662. Hoeksema J. 2015. “Experimentally Testing Effects of Mycorrhizal Networks on Plant-Plant Interactions and Distinguishing Among Mechanisms.” In Mycorrhizal Networks. Horton T, ed. Springer International Publishing, pp. 255–77. Hoeksema JD, Chaudhary VB, Gehring CA, Johnson NC, Karst J, Koide RT, Pringle A, Zabinski C, Bever JD, Moore JC, et al. 2010. A meta-analysis of context-dependency in plant response to inoculation with mycorrhizal fungi. Ecology Letters 13: 394–407. Hom EF, Murray AW. 2014. Niche engineering demonstrates a latent capacity for fungal-algal mutualism. Science 345: 94–98. Honegger R. 2000. Simon Schwendener (1829–1919) and the dual hypothesis of lichens. The Bryologist 103: 307–13. Honegger R, Edwards D, Axe L. 2012. The earliest records of internally stratified cyanobacterial and algal lichens from the Lower Devonian of the Welsh Borderland.


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Humankind: A Hopeful History by Rutger Bregman

Airbnb, Anton Chekhov, basic income, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Broken windows theory, call centre, David Graeber, Donald Trump, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Hans Rosling, invention of writing, invisible hand, knowledge economy, late fees, Mahatma Gandhi, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Nelson Mandela, New Journalism, placebo effect, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Stanford prison experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transatlantic slave trade, tulip mania, universal basic income, World Values Survey

In other words, Sanne and her toddler survived not in spite of the large number of bystanders, but because of them. 4 Now, you could think – touching story, sure, but it’s probably the exception to the bystander rule. Or maybe there’s something special about the Dutch culture, or this neighbourhood in Amsterdam, or even these four men, that accounts for the anomaly? On the contrary. Though the bystander effect may still be taught in many textbooks, a meta-analysis published in 2011 has shed new light on what bystanders do in emergencies. Meta-analysis is research about research, meaning it analyses a large group of other studies. This meta-analysis reviewed the 105 most important studies on the bystander effect from the past fifty years, including that first experiment by Latané and Darley (with students in a room).18 Two insights came out of this study-of-studies. One: the bystander effect exists. Sometimes we think we don’t need to intervene in emergencies because it makes more sense to let somebody else take charge.

., ‘Not Like Me = Bad: Infants Prefer Those Who Harm Dissimilar Others’, Psychological Science, Vol. 24, Issue 4 (2013). 22Karen Wynn said this on the CNN show Anderson Cooper 360 on 15 February 2014. 23Bloom, Just Babies, pp. 104–5. 24The first meta-analysis, which included twenty-six studies, concluded that babies’ preference for good guys is ‘a well-established empirical finding’. But not everyone is convinced. Some scientists who repeated Hamlin’s experiment saw the same effect, but others found no significant correlation. See Francesco Margoni and Luca Surian, ‘Infants’ Evaluation of Prosocial and Antisocial Agents: A Meta-Analysis’, Developmental Psychology, Vol. 54, Issue 8 (2018). 25Susan Seligson, ‘Felix Warneken Is Overturning Assumptions about the Nature of Altruism’, Radcliffe Magazine (Winter 2015). 26In Warneken’s TEDx Talk (titled: ‘Need Help?

And just like his Stanford Prison Experiment, this theory has since been thoroughly debunked. We know, for instance, that the ‘innovative’ policing of William Bratton and his Brattonistas was not responsible for the drop in New York City’s crime rates at all. The decline set in earlier, and in other cities, too. Cities like San Diego, where the police left minor troublemakers alone. In 2015, a meta-analysis of thirty studies on broken windows theory revealed that there’s no evidence Bratton’s aggressive policing strategies did anything to reduce crime.33 Zip, zero, zilch. Neighbourhoods aren’t made safer by issuing parking tickets, just as you couldn’t have saved the Titanic by scrubbing the deck. My initial reaction was: okay, so arresting bums and drunks doesn’t reduce serious crime. But it’s still good to enforce public order, right?


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Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress by Steven Pinker

3D printing, access to a mobile phone, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, Arthur Eddington, artificial general intelligence, availability heuristic, Ayatollah Khomeini, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Bonfire of the Vanities, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, clockwork universe, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, distributed generation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, double helix, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, endogenous growth, energy transition, European colonialism, experimental subject, Exxon Valdez, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, frictionless, frictionless market, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, Hans Rosling, hedonic treadmill, helicopter parent, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, Jaron Lanier, Joan Didion, job automation, Johannes Kepler, John Snow's cholera map, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, l'esprit de l'escalier, Laplace demon, life extension, long peace, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, Nathan Meyer Rothschild: antibiotics, Nelson Mandela, New Journalism, Norman Mailer, nuclear winter, obamacare, open economy, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Singer: altruism, Peter Thiel, precision agriculture, prediction markets, purchasing power parity, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, Republic of Letters, Richard Feynman, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Rory Sutherland, Saturday Night Live, science of happiness, Scientific racism, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, supervolcano, technological singularity, Ted Kaczynski, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, union organizing, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, War on Poverty, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey, Y2K

Declines in trust in others and confidence in institutions among American adults and late adolescents, 1972–2012. Psychological Science, 25, 1914–23. Twenge, J. M., Gentile, B., DeWall, C. N., Ma, D., Lacefield, K., et al. 2010. Birth cohort increases in psychopathology among young Americans, 1938–2007: A cross-temporal meta-analysis of the MMPI. Clinical Psychology Review, 30, 145–54. Twenge, J. M., & Nolen-Hoeksema, S. 2002. Age, gender, race, socioeconomic status, and birth cohort differences on the children’s depression inventory: A meta-analysis. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 111, 578–88. Twenge, J. M., Sherman, R. A., & Lyubomirsky, S. 2016. More happiness for young people and less for mature adults: Time period differences in subjective well-being in the United States, 1972–2014. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 7, 131–41.

We certainly find incremental improvements to celebrate, such as a decline in the death rate from cancer over the past twenty-five years of around a percentage point a year, saving a million lives in the United States alone.20 But we also are regularly disappointed by miracle drugs that work no better than the placebo, treatments with side effects worse than the disease, and trumpeted benefits that wash out in the meta-analysis. Medical progress today is more Sisyphus than Singularity. Lacking the gift of prophecy, no one can say whether scientists will ever find a cure for mortality. But evolution and entropy make it unlikely. Senescence is baked into our genome at every level of organization, because natural selection favors genes that make us vigorous when we are young over those that make us live as long as possible.

Together with the presence of law enforcement, the legitimacy of the regime appears to matter, because people not only respect legitimate authority themselves but factor in the degree to which they expect their potential adversaries to respect it. Eisner, together with the historian Randolph Roth, notes that crime often shoots up in decades in which people question their society and government, including the American Civil War, the 1960s, and post-Soviet Russia.33 Recent reviews of what does and doesn’t work in crime prevention back up Eisner’s advisory, particularly a massive meta-analysis by the sociologists Thomas Abt and Christopher Winship of 2,300 studies evaluating just about every policy, plan, program, project, initiative, intervention, nostrum, and gimmick that has been tried in recent decades.34 They concluded that the single most effective tactic for reducing violent crime is focused deterrence. A “laser-like focus” must first be directed on the neighborhoods where crime is rampant or even just starting to creep up, with the “hot spots” identified by data gathered in real time.


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Doing Harm: The Truth About How Bad Medicine and Lazy Science Leave Women Dismissed, Misdiagnosed, and Sick by Maya Dusenbery

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Atul Gawande, equal pay for equal work, feminist movement, gender pay gap, Joan Didion, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, obamacare, phenotype, pre–internet, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), sexual politics, Skype, stem cell, women in the workforce

., “National Study of Physician Awareness and Adherence to Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Guidelines,” Circulation 111 (February 2011), doi:10.1161/01.CIR.0000154568.43333.82. And according to a 2017 survey, only 22 percent . . . C. Noel Bairey Merz et al., “Knowledge, Attitudes, and Beliefs Regarding Cardiovascular Disease in Women,” Journal of the American College of Cardiology 70, no. 2 (July 2017), doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2017.05.024. Meanwhile, a 2015 meta-analysis . . . Aimee Galick, Elizabeth D’Arrigo-Patrick, and Carmen Knudson-Martin, “Can Anyone Hear Me? Does Anyone See Me? A Qualitative Meta-Analysis of Women’s Experiences of Heart Disease,” Qualitative Health Research 25, no. 8 (August 2015), doi:10.1177/1049732315584743. In a 2008 experiment . . . M. Bönte et al., “Women and Men with Coronary Heart Disease in Three Countries: Are They Treated Differently?” Women’s Health Issues 18, no. 3 (May–June 2008), doi:10.1016/j.whi.2008.01.003.

Author unknown, “Story: Woman Committed Rather Than Treated,” Miss•Treated (blog), December 17, 2015, www.misstreated.org/blog/2015/12/17/woman-is-committed-rather-than-getting-the-medical-care-she-needs. A growing body of research explores . . . Elizabeth N. Chapman, Anna Kaatz, and Molly Carnes, “Physicians and Implicit Bias: How Doctors May Unwittingly Perpetuate Health Care Disparities,” Journal of General Internal Medicine 28, no. 11 (November 2013), doi:10.1007/s11606-013-2441-1. A 2012 meta-analysis . . . Salimah H. Meghani, Eeeseung Byun, and Rollin M. Gallagher, “Time to Take Stock: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review of Analgesic Treatment Disparities for Pain in the United States,” Pain Medicine 13, no. 2 (February 2012), doi:10.1111/j.1526-4637.2011.01310.x. A 2015 study found that white children . . . Monika K. Goyal et al., “Racial Disparities in Pain Management of Children with Appendicitis in Emergency Departments,” JAMA Pediatrics 169, no. 11 (November 2015), doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.1915.

Of course, the same counterargument to the exclusion of women applies here: if the results of the study do vary significantly due to fluctuations in ovarian hormones, that’s just all the more reason females need to be studied, no matter the cost. Interestingly, however, it seems that the long-standing assumption that their hormonal cycle makes female animals inherently more variable than males is just that: an assumption. A 2014 meta-analysis of nearly three hundred articles found that female mice weren’t more variable than their male counterparts on a range of behavioral, morphological, physiological, and molecular traits. And for several traits, it was the males that were more variable, perhaps, according to the researchers, largely because when male mice are housed together, they tend to fight among themselves for status, leading to differences in their levels of stress hormones and testosterone.


Not Working by Blanchflower, David G.

active measures, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Boris Johnson, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Clapham omnibus, collective bargaining, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, declining real wages, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, estate planning, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, George Akerlof, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, illegal immigration, income inequality, indoor plumbing, inflation targeting, job satisfaction, John Bercow, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nate Silver, negative equity, new economy, Northern Rock, obamacare, oil shock, open borders, Own Your Own Home, p-value, Panamax, pension reform, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-materialism, price stability, prisoner's dilemma, quantitative easing, rent control, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, selection bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, Thorstein Veblen, trade liberalization, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, urban planning, working poor, working-age population, yield curve

Subsequent mortality was inversely correlated with the number of occasions on which participants reported high enjoyment of life. Chida and Steptoe (2008) conducted a meta-analysis and found that positive psychological well-being was related to lower mortality. Joy, happiness, and energy, as well as life satisfaction, hopefulness, optimism, and a sense of humor, lowered the risk of mortality. Obesity is also correlated with depression, but the direction of causation is not obvious.21 Obesity makes people depressed, or depression makes people eat, which causes depression or possibly both in a downward spiral. Luppino et al. (2010) addressed this issue with a meta-analysis of studies using longitudinal data and examined whether depression is predictive of the development of overweight and obesity and, in turn, whether overweight and obesity are predictive of the development of depression.

Third, some previous residents move to other areas in reaction to new inflows. Fourth, any local impact is likely to be diluted by adjustment processes, for example changes in the industrial composition and production technologies as well as capital flows” (109).29 A recent meta-analysis updated the list of papers estimating the effect of immigration on wages. 30 Of the 28 countries and studies reviewed, 13 find no significant effect, 7 find a small positive effect, and 8 find a small negative effect. A similar meta-analysis for employment has shown that a 1-percentage-point increase in the share of immigrants has an almost negligible impact on native employment, reducing it by 0.024 percent.31 Overall, only about half of studies found a downward effect on wages or employment that is statistically significant at the 10 percent level.

The impact of prolonged time spent in unemployment on depression symptoms appears to be explained by individual demographic factors in the sampled countries. 3) Unemployment increases susceptibility to malnutrition, illness, mental stress, and loss of selfesteem, leading to depression.32 There is evidence for the United States that being jobless injures self-esteem and fosters feelings of externality and helplessness among youths.33 The psychological imprint of joblessness persists. Paul and Moser (2009) in a meta-analysis of 237 cross-sectional and 87 longitudinal studies concluded that the unemployed exhibit more distress than the employed. A significant difference was found for several indicator variables of mental health including symptoms of distress, depression, anxiety, psychosomatic symptoms, subjective well-being, and self-esteem. Meta-analyses of longitudinal studies and natural experiments endorsed the assumption, they argued, that unemployment not only is correlated to distress but also causes it. 4) Being unemployed can reduce the life expectancy of workers.34 There is evidence that mortality for the previously unemployed was 2.5 times higher than for people not previously unemployed.35 One study followed 20,632 twins in Sweden from 1973 to 1996 and found that unemployment increased mortality, with significant increases in suicide, injuries, and accidents.36 Low levels of education, use of sleeping pills or tranquilizers, and serious or longlasting illness tended to strengthen the association between unemployment and early mortality. 5) Increases in the unemployment rate tend to be associated with increases in the suicide rate.37 The unemployed appear to have a higher propensity to commit suicide. 6) Unemployment increases the probability of poor physical health outcomes such as heart attacks in later life.38 7) There is evidence of increases in smoking after unemployment.39 8) Many of the unemployed delay important life decisions, such as marriage and having children.40 As noted above, unemployment makes it harder for young people to strike out on their own and they often end up living with their parents. 9) Teenage unemployment leaves scars rather than temporary blemishes.41 Young people who suffer periods of unemployment have a 13–21 percent decrease in earnings by age 41.42 10) The long-term unemployed are at a disadvantage when they try to find work.


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Transcend: The New Science of Self-Actualization by Scott Barry Kaufman

Albert Einstein, David Brooks, desegregation, Donald Trump, fear of failure, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, helicopter parent, impulse control, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, phenotype, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, Rosa Parks, science of happiness, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social intelligence, Steven Pinker, theory of mind

International Journal of Eating Disorders, 31(4), 376–388; Swanson, D. W., & Dinello, F. A. (1970). Severe obesity as a habituation syndrome: Evidence during a starvation study. Archives of General Psychiatry, 22(2), 120–127. 24. Swanson & Dinello, Severe obesity as a habituation syndrome, p. 124. 25. Orquin, J. L., & Kurzban, R. (2016). A meta-analysis of blood glucose effects on human decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 142(5), 546–567. 26. Nettle, Does hunger contribute to socioeconomic gradients in behavior?; Orquin & Kurzban, A meta-analysis of blood glucose effects on human decision making. 27. Nettle, Does hunger contribute to socioeconomic gradients in behavior? 28. Fessler, Pseudoparadoxical impulsivity in restrictive anorexia nervosa. 29. Bowlby, J. (1982; originally published in 1969). Attachment and loss: Vol. 1.

But in adulthood, they prevent growth of the whole person. From Vulnerability to Growth Vulnerable narcissism need not be a barrier to growth. Any of us, regardless of our levels of these characteristics, can take charge of our lives and start to build a coherent and stable sense of self. A key way of overcoming severe self-esteem uncertainty is to shed the perfectionistic self-presentation. As one meta-analysis of the literature found, vulnerable narcissism is significantly linked to an obsessive concern over whether one is coming across as imperfect to others, as well as perceiving others as demanding perfection of oneself.51 Worrying less about what everyone thinks of you, taking more risks (even if they may make you look bad), and really testing whether everyone demands such a high level of perfection from you can stabilize self-esteem.

We found that grandiose narcissism is also related to a black-and-white view of others, seen in the endorsement of statements such as “As far as I’m concerned, people are either good or bad,” as well as an extreme view of themselves, seeing themselves as fearless and bold. For example, we found a strong correlation between grandiose narcissism and the statement “I ignore danger as if I were Superman.” These overly inflated views of the self are linked to the high levels of perfectionism found among those who score high in grandiose narcissism.63 One meta-analysis found that those scoring high in grandiose narcissism are more likely to impose harshly perfectionistic demands on others, showing perpetual dissatisfaction with their perceived flaws.64 Grandiose narcissism was also correlated with perfectionistic self-promotion and fantasies of achieving perfection. However, those scoring high in grandiose narcissism don’t tend to care much about the costs of behaving imperfectly themselves (most likely because they believe that no such imperfections exist).65 Note the contrast with vulnerable narcissism.


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Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking by Richard E. Nisbett

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, big-box store, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, cognitive dissonance, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, cosmological constant, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, endowment effect, experimental subject, feminist movement, fixed income, fundamental attribution error, glass ceiling, Henri Poincaré, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, longitudinal study, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, quantitative easing, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, Shai Danziger, Socratic dialogue, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, William of Occam, Zipcar

Lehman, Lempert, and Nisbett, “The Effects of Graduate Training on Reasoning: Formal Discipline and Thinking About Everyday Life Events.” 7. ODDS AND NS 1. Kuncel, Hezlett, and Ones, “A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the Graduate Record Examinations: Implications for Graduate Student Selection and Performance.” 2. Kunda and Nisbett, “The Psychometrics of Everyday Life.” 3. Rein and Rainwater, “How Large Is the Welfare Class?” 4. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow. 8. LINKED UP 1. Smedslund, “The Concept of Correlation in Adults”; Ward and Jenkins, “The Display of Information and the Judgment of Contingency.” 2. Zagorsky, “Do You Have to Be Smart to Be Rich? The Impact of IQ on Wealth, Income and Financial Distress.” 3. Kuncel, Hezlett, and Ones, “A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the Graduate Record Examinations: Implications for Graduate Student Selection and Performance.” 4.

; Dijksterhuis, “Think Different: The Merits of Unconscious Thought in Preference Development and Decision Making”; Dijksterhuis and Nordgren, “A Theory of Unconscious Thought”; A. Dijksterhuis et al., “On Making the Right Choice: The Deliberation-Without-Attention Effect”; Gonzalo et al., “‘Save Angels Perhaps’: A Critical Examination of Unconscious Thought Theory and the Deliberation-Without-Attention Effect”; Strick et al., “A Meta-Analysis on Unconscious Thought Effects.” 11. Lewicki et al., “Nonconscious Acquisition of Information.” 12. Klarreich, “Unheralded Mathematician Bridges the Prime Gap.” 13. Ghiselin, ed. The Creative Process. 14. Maier, “Reasoning in Humans II: The Solution of a Problem and Its Appearance in Consciousness.” 15. Kim, “Naked Self-Interest? Why the Legal Profession Resists Gatekeeping”; O’Brien, Sommers, and Ellsworth, “Ask and What Shall Ye Receive?

Hanushek, “The Economics of Schooling: Production and Efficiency in Public Schools”; Hoxby, “The Effects of Class Size on Student Achievement: New Evidence from Population Variation”; Jencks et al., Inequality: A Reassessment of the Effects of Family and Schooling in America. 4. Krueger, “Experimental Estimates of Education Production Functions.” 5. Shin and Chung, “Class Size and Student Achievement in the United States: A Meta-Analysis.” 6. Samieri et al., “Olive Oil Consumption, Plasma Oleic Acid, and Stroke Incidence.” 7. Fong et al., “Correction of Visual Impairment by Cataract Surgery and Improved Survival in Older Persons.” 8. Samieri et al., “Olive Oil Consumption, Plasma Oleic Acid, and Stroke Incidence.” 9. Humphrey and Chan, “Postmenopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy and the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.” 10.


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The End of Illness by David B. Agus

Danny Hillis, discovery of penicillin, double helix, epigenetics, germ theory of disease, Google Earth, impulse control, information retrieval, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Murray Gell-Mann, pattern recognition, Pepto Bismol, personalized medicine, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, Steve Jobs, the scientific method

Thankfully, sound research from some of our most trusted purveyors of medical wisdom has tried to put this uncertainty to rest. Today, the growing body of evidence—and scientific opinion held—is changing the landscape for these molecules. For starters, researchers at the Cleveland Clinic attempted to clear up the confusion about supplement use by doing a meta-analysis—an overview study of the best-designed, largest studies of antioxidants. A meta-analysis is an excellent way to explore an idea because it allows investigators to combine the results of many studies, thereby allowing small benefits or harm to be seen that may not have been appreciated in any one study. The Cleveland group’s findings were published in 2003 in the British medical journal the Lancet. The researchers analyzed results from seven large, randomized trials of vitamin E, alone or in combination with other antioxidants, and eight of beta-carotene, which is a precursor of vitamin A.

The researchers analyzed results from seven large, randomized trials of vitamin E, alone or in combination with other antioxidants, and eight of beta-carotene, which is a precursor of vitamin A. The doses of vitamin E ranged from 50–800 international units (IU); for beta-carotene, the doses were 15–50 milligrams (mg). Overall, 81,788 patients were included in the vitamin E portion of the meta-analysis and 138,113 in the beta-carotene portion. The researchers looked for the effect of these antioxidant vitamins on death rates, either from cardiovascular disease or from any other cause, what’s referred to in scientific circles as “all-cause mortality.” Much to the their surprise, vitamin E did not provide any benefit in lowering mortality compared to control treatments, and it did not significantly decrease the risk of cardiovascular death or stroke (“cerebrovascular accident”).

British Journal of Sports Medicine 17, no. 2 (June 1983): 122–27. Bishop, D. The effects of travel on team performance in the Australian national netball competition. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine 7, no. 1 (March 2004): 118–22. Bjelakovic, G., D. Nikolova, L.L. Gluud, R.G. Simonetti, and C. Gluud. Mortality in randomized trials of antioxidant supplements for primary and secondary prevention: systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association 297, no. 8 (February 28, 2007): 842–57. Blair, S.N. Physical inactivity: the biggest public health problem of the 21st century. British Journal of Sports Medicine 43, no. 1 (January 2009): 1–2. Blair, S.N., et al. A tribute to Professor Jeremiah Morris: the man who invented the field of physical activity epidemiology. Annals of Epidemiology 20, no. 9 (September 2010): 651–60.


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Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities by Eric Kaufmann

4chan, affirmative action, Amazon Mechanical Turk, anti-communist, anti-globalists, augmented reality, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, British Empire, centre right, Chelsea Manning, cognitive dissonance, complexity theory, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Haight Ashbury, illegal immigration, immigration reform, imperial preference, income inequality, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, liberal capitalism, longitudinal study, Lyft, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral panic, Nate Silver, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, open borders, phenotype, postnationalism / post nation state, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Republic of Letters, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steven Pinker, the built environment, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transcontinental railway, twin studies, uber lyft, upwardly mobile, urban sprawl, Washington Consensus, white flight, working-age population, World Values Survey, young professional

Fight According to Karen Stenner, a social psychologist, rising diversity triggers two responses: conservatism and authoritarianism. Conservatism involves maintaining continuity with the past and resisting change.26 If the West was diverse and became more homogeneous – as occurred in Poland or Vienna after 1939 – the conservative instinct would be to wax nostalgic about past diversity. Ethnic change is the irritant, not levels of diversity, which is why a meta-analysis of the academic literature I helped conduct shows ethnic change nearly always predicts increased anti-immigration sentiment and populist-right voting.27 Psychological authoritarianism, by contrast, concerns the quest for order and security. Diversity, whether ethnic or ideological, however long its provenance, is problematic because it disrupts a sense of harmony and cohesion. Thus for authoritarians high levels of ethnic diversity are as much the problem as ethnic change.

This is clear in the data on neighbourhood change, where places that undergo ethnic shifts see higher white opposition to immigration but this effect disappears a decade after the change subsides.12 Authoritarians, by comparison, are most sensitive to the stock of minorities. For instance, it is conceivable that the rate of ethnic change may taper but assimilation proceeds too slowly to prevent the stock of non-whites from continuing to rise. In this case, we should expect reduced conservative opposition to immigration in tandem with heightening authoritarian concern. In a meta-analysis of all academic articles published between 1995 and 2016 on the relationship between diversity and either opposition to immigration or support for populist-right parties in the West, Matthew Goodwin and I found that both ethnic change and raw minority levels counted at the national level – though minority change was a somewhat stronger predictor of white hostility than minority share.13 Needless to say, the survey and election data we have, much of which dates from the 1990s, makes it very difficult to disentangle the effect of levels from changes.

As Kai Arzheimer argues, ‘it is difficult to overstate the importance of immigration for the modern (post-1980) Extreme Right’.18 Marcel Lubbers and his colleagues show that for the 1990s the share of non-Europeans in a country is associated with a significantly higher populist-right vote share. In addition, the effect size of anti-immigration attitudes was twice that of dissatisfaction with democracy in predicting whether an individual in a European country voted for the populist right.19 The same was true in the early 2000s, with cultural threats many times stronger than economic threats in some models.20 In a meta-analysis of the literature on the populist right between 1995 and 2016 that I conducted with Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent, the effects of minority share on attitudes to immigration and on populist-right support were virtually identical, suggesting the two outcomes are closely linked. Populist-right support in a city, region or country was positively correlated with the share of minorities or immigrants in twenty-seven of thirty-five studies where a significant relationship was found.


Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth About Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers by David Perlmutter, Kristin Loberg

epigenetics, Gary Taubes, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, phenotype, publication bias, Ralph Waldo Emerson, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell

Smoller, et al., “Antidepressant Use and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality Among Postmenopausal Women in the Women’s Health Initiative Study,” Archives of Internal Medicine 169, no. 22 (December 14, 2009): 2128–39. 21. J. C. Fournier, et al., “Antidepressant Drug Effects and Depression Severity: A Patient-level Meta-analysis,” JAMA 303, no. 1 (January 6, 2010): 47–53. 22. J. Y. Shin, et al., “Are Cholesterol and Depression Inversely Related? A Meta-analysis of the Association Between Two Cardiac Risk Factors,” Annals of Behavioral Medicine 36, no. 1 (August 2008): 33–43. 23. http://www.naturalnews.com/032125_statins_memory_loss.html. 24. James Greenblatt, MD, “Low Cholesterol and Its Psychological Effects: Low Cholesterol Is Linked to Depression, Suicide, and Violence,” The Breakthrough Depression Solution (blog), Psychology Today, June 10, 2011, http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-breakthrough-depression-solution/201106/low-cholesterol-and-its-psychological-effects. 25.

Petousis-Harris, “Saturated Fat Has Been Unfairly Demonised: Yes,” Primary Health Care 3, no. 4 (December 1, 2011): 317–19. 11. http://www.survivediabetes.com/lowfat.html. 12. A. W. Weverling-Rijnsburger, et al., “Total Cholesterol and Risk of Mortality in the Oldest Old,” Lancet 350, no. 9085 (October 18, 1997): 1119–23. 13. L. Dupuis, et al., “Dyslipidemia Is a Protective Factor in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis,” Neurology 70, no. 13 (March 25, 2008): 1004–09. 14. P. W. Siri-Tarino, et al., “Meta-analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies Evaluating the Association of Saturated Fat with Cardiovascular Disease,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 91, no. 3 (March 2010): 535–46. 15. Michael I. Gurr, et al., Lipid Biochemistry: An Introduction, Fifth Edition (New York: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010). 16. A. Astrup, et al., “The Role of Reducing Intakes of Saturated Fat in the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: Where Does the Evidence Stand in 2010?”

., “Insulin Resistance in Cognitive Impairment: The InCHIANTI Study,” Archives of Neurology 62, no. 7 (2005): 1067–72. 18. M. Adamczak and A. Wiecek, “The Adipose Tissue as an Endocrine Organ,” Seminars in Nephrology 33, no. 1 (January 2013): 2–13. 19. E. L. de Hollander, et al., “The Association Between Waist Circumference and Risk of Mortality Considering Body Mass Index in 65-to 74-year-olds: A Meta-analysis of 29 Cohorts Involving More Than 58,000 Elderly Persons,” International Journal of Epidemiology 41, no. 3 (June 2012): 805–17. 20. F. Item and D. Konrad, “Visceral Fat and Metabolic Inflammation: The Portal Theory Revisited,” pt. 2, Obesity Reviews 13 (December 2012): S30–S39. 21. C. Geroldi, et al., “Insulin Resistance in Cognitive Impairment” (see chap. 4, n. 17). 22. C. A. Raji, et al., “Brain Structure and Obesity,” Human Brain Mapping 31, no. 3 (March 2010): 353–64. 23.


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Work Rules!: Insights From Inside Google That Will Transform How You Live and Lead by Laszlo Bock

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, book scanning, Burning Man, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, citizen journalism, clean water, correlation coefficient, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, Google X / Alphabet X, Googley, helicopter parent, immigration reform, Internet Archive, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, nudge unit, PageRank, Paul Buchheit, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rana Plaza, random walk, Richard Thaler, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, six sigma, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, survivorship bias, TaskRabbit, The Wisdom of Crowds, Tony Hsieh, Turing machine, winner-take-all economy, Y2K

There’s a sizable body of evidence showing that proactive employees are better performers across industries. B. Fuller Jr. and L. E. Marler, “Change Driven by Nature: A Meta-Analytic Review of the Proactive Personality,” Journal of Vocational Behavior 75, no. 3 (2009): 329–345. (A meta-analysis of 107 studies.) Jeffrey P. Thomas, Daniel S. Whitman, and Chockalingam Viswesvaran, “Employee Proactivity in Organizations: A Comparative Meta-Analysis of Emergent Proactive Constructs,” Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology 83, no. 2 (2010): 275–300. (A meta-analysis of 103 samples.) 225. Wikipedia, “Poka-yoke,” last modified May 11, 2014, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poka-yoke. 226. Steven F. Venti and David A. Wise, “Choice, Chance, and Wealth Dispersion at Retirement,” in Aging Issues in the United States and Japan, eds.

As we saw with our billboard, some attempts at assessment just don’t work. Happily, the 2013 movie The Internship, about two washed-up watch salesmen who decide to become interns at Google, gave the answer to the blender question, so at least that one can’t be asked as an interview question anymore.xxii A century of science points the way to an answer In 1998, Frank Schmidt and John Hunter published a meta-analysis of eighty-five years of research on how well assessments predict performance.85 They looked at nineteen different assessment techniques and found that typical, unstructured job interviews were pretty bad at predicting how someone would perform once hired. Unstructured interviews have an r2 of 0.14, meaning that they can explain only 14 percent of an employee’s performance.xxiii This is somewhat ahead of reference checks (explaining 7 percent of performance), ahead of the number of years of work experience (3 percent), and well ahead of “graphology,” or handwriting analysis (0.04 percent), which I’m stunned that anyone actually uses.

The earliest research on this is from B. M. Springbett of the University of Manitoba, published in 1958. Though using a very small sample of interviewers, he found that decisions were typically made within the first four minutes of an interview. Subsequent research includes: Nalini Ambady and Robert Rosenthal, “Thin Slices of Expressive Behavior as Predictors of Interpersonal Consequences: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 111, no. 2 (1992): 256–274 ; M. R. Barrick, B. W. Swider, and G. L. Stewart, “Initial Evaluations in the Interview: Relationships with Subsequent Interviewer Evaluations and Employment Offers,” Journal of Applied Psychology 95, no. 6 (2010): 1163–1172 ; M. R. Barrick, S. L. Dustin, T. L. Giluk, G. L. Stewart, J. A. Shaffer, and B. W. Swider, “Candidate Characteristics Driving Initial Impressions During Rapport Building: Implications for Employment Interview Validity,” Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology 85, no. 2 (2012): 330–352. 81.


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The Village Effect: How Face-To-Face Contact Can Make Us Healthier, Happier, and Smarter by Susan Pinker

assortative mating, Atul Gawande, Bernie Madoff, call centre, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, delayed gratification, Edward Glaeser, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, estate planning, facts on the ground, game design, happiness index / gross national happiness, indoor plumbing, invisible hand, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, medical residency, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, Occupy movement, old-boy network, place-making, Ponzi scheme, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, Ray Oldenburg, Silicon Valley, Skype, social intelligence, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steven Pinker, The Great Good Place, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Tony Hsieh, urban planning, Yogi Berra

For more on why we’re so bad at predicting what will make us happy, read Harvard’s Dan Gilbert: Daniel Gilbert, Stumbling on Happiness (New York: Knopf, 2006). 63. Finkel et al., “Online Dating: A Critical Analysis from the Perspective of Psychological Science.” 64. Matching personality traits do not predict the longevity of a relationship, according to a meta-analysis of 313 studies: R. Matthew Montoya, Robert S. Horton, and Jeffrey Kirchner, “Is Actual Similarity Necessary for Attraction? A Meta-analysis of Actual and Perceived Similarity,” Journal of Social and Personal Relationships 25, no. 6 (2008). 65. The following assertion appeared on eHarmony’s website in August 2012: “Our compatibility matching models are based on 35 years of clinical experience and rigorous scientific research into which characteristics between spouses are consistently associated with the most successful relationships.”

The twenty-strong team of international researchers who conducted this study found that the increased rate of early breastfeeding in the experimental group led to fewer digestive and skin ailments in the babies in the short term, and also to a boosted verbal IQ score in the long term, when these children were tested six years later.9 Presumably every parent wants clever children, and an average increase of 7.5 IQ points is nothing to sneeze at. So impressed were they with the data showing enhanced health and intelligence in breastfed babies that officials at the World Health Organization based its international breastfeeding strategy on a meta-analysis of these studies. This leads us to an uncomfortable question. If the majority of women in the West are giving up the practice before their infants can hold up their heads, what are they missing? I asked this question of Michael Kramer, the McGill-based pediatric epidemiologist who is the Belarusian study’s lead author. I also wanted to know what he thought was making the breastfed babies smarter.

Meanwhile, research shows that face-to-face contact with a skilled teacher for even one year of a child’s life has more impact on the child’s learning than any laptop program has had so far.22 If policymakers want to use resources wisely, it is clear that you get a lot more from parent and teacher training programs than you do from investing in expensive—and highly perishable—classroom technology.23 To be sure, there are wonderful pieces of educational software on the market, and well-trained teachers who know how to use them to advantage—mostly to target specific skills.24 But among the most vulnerable kids, the ones who most need a leg-up to succeed—primarily lower-income children, those with ADHD, and impulsive boys—what boosts achievement the most are initiatives that help them develop self-discipline and what psychologists call executive function, namely the ability to plan, to hold key bits of information in memory, and to be cognitively flexible, all while inhibiting their impulses. So, what helps school-age kids master those skills? Adele Diamond and Kathleen Lee, two Canadian psychologists, asked that question in a recent meta-analysis published in Science. They discovered that even the best computer programs, which build in increasing challenges as the child gains competence, succeeded at training kids one skill at a time. But that one skill didn’t transfer well to other areas. In other words, a program that trained kids on short-term memory didn’t help them with other types of tasks, including ones that included memory skills.


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The No Need to Diet Book: Become a Diet Rebel and Make Friends With Food by Plantbased Pixie

Albert Einstein, David Attenborough, employer provided health coverage, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, publication bias, randomized controlled trial

‘Eating when bored: Revision of the emotional eating scale with a focus on boredom’. Journal of Health Psychology, 31(4):521–524. 58. Havermans, R.C., Vancleef, L., Kalamatianos, A., Nederkoorn, C. (2015). ‘Eating and inflicting pain out of boredom’. Appetite, 85:52–57. 59. Cardi, V., Leppanen, J., Treasure, J. (2015). ‘The effects of negative and positive mood induction on eating behaviour: A meta-analysis of laboratory studies in the healthy population and eating and weight disorders’. Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Review, 57:299–309. 60. White, B.A., Horwath, C.C, Conner, T.S. (2013). ‘Many apples a day keep the blues away:Daily experiences of negative and positive affect and food consumption in young adults’. British Journal of Health Psychology, 18(4):782–798. 61. Sánchez-Villegas, A., Henríquez-Sánchez, P., Ruiz-Canela, M., et al. (2015).

International Journal of Adolescence and Youth, 20(3):375–391. 110. Frederick, D.A., Daniels, E.A., Bates, M.E., Tylka, T.L. (2017). ‘Exposure to thin-ideal media affect most, but not all, women: Results from the perceived effects of media exposure scale and open-ended responses’. Body Image, 23:188–205. 111. Grabe, S., Ward, L.M., Hyde, J.S. (2008). ‘The role of the media in body image concerns among women: A meta-analysis of experimental and correlational studies’. Psychological Bulletin, 134(3):460–476. 112. Levine, M.P., Murnen, S.K. (2009). ‘“Everybody knows that mass media are/are not [pick one] a cause of eating disorders”: A critical review of evidence for a causal link between media, negative body image, and disordered eating in females’. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 28(1):9–42. 113. Barlett, C.P., Vowels, C.L., Saucier, D.A. (2008).

Journal of Neural Transmission, 116(6):777–784. 129. Harvey, S.B., Øverland, S., Hatch, S.L., Wessely, S., Mykletun, A., Hotopf, M. (2018). ‘Exercise and the prevention of depression: Results of the HUNT cohort study. American Journal of Psychiatry, 175(1):28–36. 130. Anglin, R.E.S., Samaan, Z., Walter, S.D., McDonald, S.D. (2013). ‘Vitamin D deficiency and depression in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis’. British Journal of Psychiatry, 202(02):100–107. 131. Spence, J.C., McGannon, K.R, Poon P. (2005). ‘The effect of exercise on global self-esteem: A quantitative review’. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 27(3):311–334. 132. Hamer, M., Stamatakis, E., Steptoe, A. (2009). ‘Dose-response relationship between physical activity and mental health: The Scottish health survey’. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 43(14):1111–1114. 133.


Cognitive Gadgets: The Cultural Evolution of Thinking by Cecilia Heyes

Asperger Syndrome, complexity theory, epigenetics, intermodal, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, phenotype, social intelligence, the built environment, theory of mind, twin studies

This section focuses on three topics—neural localization, sequence learning, and social shaping—which, although not wholly “new,” have been investigated with vigor in recent years, often with the intention of providing positive evidence in favor of the cultural account. Neural Localization In a meta-analysis of more than 450 functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, Anderson (2008) found that activity during language processing was more widely scattered across the brain than during any other type of task. The spatial distribution of neural activity was greater for language than for reasoning, memory, visual perception, mental imagery, emotion, action, and attention. In a complementary way, Poldrack (2006) found in another meta-analysis of fMRI data, that Broca’s area, a region of the brain long famous for being a “language center,” was active in more studies involving cognitive tasks unrelated to language (199) than in studies of language processing (166).

How joint is the joint attention of apes and human infants? In J. Metcalfe and H.S. Terrace (eds.), Agency and Joint Attention. New York: Oxford University Press, 49–61. Caselli, L., and Chelazzi, L. (2011). Does the macaque monkey provide a good model for studying human executive control? A comparative behavioral study of task switching. PLoS One, 6(6), e21489. Caspers, S., Zilles, K., Laird, A. R., and Eickhoff, S. B. (2010). ALE meta-analysis of action observation and imitation in the human brain. NeuroImage, 50(3),1148–1167. Catmur, C., Mars, R. B., Rushworth, M. F., and Heyes, C. (2011). Making mirrors: Premotor cortex stimulation enhances mirror and counter-mirror motor facilitation. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 23(9), 2352–2362. Catmur, C., Press, C., and Heyes, C. (2016). Mirror associations. In R. A. Murphy and R. C.

Language, Thought, and Other Biological Categories: New Foundations for Realism. Cambridge, MA: MIT press. Misyak, J. B., and Christiansen, M. H. (2012). Statistical learning and language: An individual differences study. Language Learning, 62(1), 302–331. Moerk, E. L. (1991). Positive evidence for negative evidence. First Language, 11(32), 219–251. Molenberghs, P., Cunnington, R., and Mattingley, J. B. (2012). Brain regions with mirror properties: A meta-analysis of 125 human fMRI studies. Neuroscience and Biobehavioral Reviews, 36(1), 341–349. Moon, C., Cooper, R. P., and Fifer, W. P. (1993). Two-day-olds prefer their native language. Infant Behavior and Development, 16(4), 495–500. Moore, C., and Corkum, V. (1994). Social understanding at the end of the first year of life. Developmental Review, 14(4), 349–372. Moore, J. W., Dickinson, A., and Fletcher, P.


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The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, Peter Calthorpe, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve

This discovery has been dubbed the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis posits that environmental conditions initially deteriorate as economic growth takes off, but later improve when citizens with rising incomes demand better quality environmental amenities. There is still considerable debate over the empirical reality of this hypothesis, but a 2011 meta-analysis based on 878 observations from 103 empirical EKC studies (1992 to 2009) reports that its results “indicate the presence of an EKC-type relationship for landscape degradation, water pollution, agricultural wastes, municipal-related wastes, and several air pollution measures.” The best evidence backs the notion that increasing wealth from economic growth correlates with a cleaner natural environment—that is to say, richer becomes cleaner.

In a 2010 review article in the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, the Rutgers ecologist Joan Ehrenfeld reported that rapidly accumulating evidence from many introduced species of plants and animals shows that they improve ecosystem functioning by increasing local biomass and speeding up the recycling of nutrients and energy. For example, zebra mussels are very effective filter feeders that have helped clear up the polluted waters of the Great Lakes enough to permit native lake grasses and other plants to flourish. A 2012 review article in Trends in Ecology and Evolution surveying the literature on the effects of introduced species on ecosystem functioning reported that a “meta-analysis of over 1000 field studies showing that, although regional native species richness has often declined, primary production and several ecosystem processes were usually maintained or enhanced as a result of species introductions.” The researchers further conclude, “What is clear is that ecological theory does not automatically imply that a global decline in species richness will result in impaired functioning of the world’s ecosystems.”

“The influence of innovation”: Harry Bloch and David Sapsford, “Innovation, Real Primary Commodity Prices, and the Business Cycles,” paper presented at the International Schumpeter Society Conference 2010 on Innovation, Organisation, Sustainability and Crises, Aalborg, June 2010, 10. presence of an EKC-type relationship: Bishwa Koirala et al., “Further Investigation of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies Using Meta-Analysis.” International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics 22.S11 (2011). www.ceserp.com/cp-jour/index.php?journal=ijees&page=article&op=view&path[]=1014. globally, pollution: edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/July%2019_v2.pdf, Version v4.1of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), July 2010. sulfur dioxide emissions: K. Zilmont, S. J. Smith, and J. Cofala, “The Last Decade of Global Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide 2000–2011.”


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The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business by Charles Duhigg

Atul Gawande, Checklist Manifesto, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, delayed gratification, desegregation, game design, haute couture, impulse control, index card, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, patient HM, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, rolodex, Rosa Parks, Silicon Valley, Stanford marshmallow experiment, telemarketer, Tenerife airport disaster, Toyota Production System, transaction costs, Walter Mischel

Tournie, “Alcoholics Anonymous as Treatment and as Ideology,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol 40, no. 3 (1979): 230–39; P. E. Bebbington, “The Efficacy of Alcoholics Anonymous: The Elusiveness of Hard Data,” British Journal of Psychiatry 128 (1976): 572–80. 3.20 “It’s not obvious from the way they’re written” Emrick et al., “Alcoholics Anonymous: What Is Currently Known?”; J. S. Tonigan, R. Toscova, and W. R. Miller, “Meta-analysis of the Literature on Alcoholics Anonymous: Sample and Study Characteristics Moderate Findings,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol 57 (1995): 65–72; J. S. Tonigan, W. R. Miller, and G. J. Connors, “Project MATCH Client Impressions About Alcoholics Anonymous: Measurement Issues and Relationship to Treatment Outcome,” Alcoholism Treatment Quarterly 18 (2000): 25–41; J. S. Tonigan, “Spirituality and Alcoholics Anonymous,” Southern Medical Journal 100, no. 4 (2007): 437–40. 3.21 One particularly dramatic demonstration Heinze et al., “Counteracting Incentive Sensitization in Severe Alcohol Dependence Using Deep Brain Stimulation of the Nucleus Accumbens: Clinical and Basic Science Aspects,” Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 3, no. 22 (2009). 3.22 graduate student named Mandy “Mandy” is a pseudonym used by the author of the case study this passage draws from. 3.23 Mississippi State University B.

., “A Descriptive Study of Individuals Successful at Long-Term Maintenance of Substantial Weight Loss,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 66 (1997): 239–46; M. J. Mahoney, N. G. Moura, and T. C. Wade, “Relative Efficacy of Self-Reward, Self-Punishment, and Self-Monitoring Techniques for Weight Loss,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 40 (1973): 404–7; M. J. Franz et al., “Weight Loss Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Weight-Loss Clinical Trials with a Minimum 1-Year Follow-up,” Journal of the American Dietetic Association 107 (2007): 1755–67; A. DelParigi et al., “Successful Dieters Have Increased Neural Activity in Cortical Areas Involved in the Control of Behavior,” International Journal of Obesity 31 (2007): 440–48. 4.26 researchers referred to as “grit” Jonah Lehrer, “The Truth About Grit,” The Boston Globe, August 2, 2009. 4.27 “despite failure, adversity, and plateaus in progress” A.

M. Tice, “Ego Depletion: A Resource Model of Volition, Self-Regulation, and Controlled Processing,” Social Cognition 74 (2000): 1252–65; Roy F. Baumeister and Mark Muraven, “Self-Regulation and Depletion of Limited Resources: Does Self-Control Resemble a Muscle?” Psychological Bulletin 126 (2000): 247–59; See also M. S. Hagger et al., “Ego Depletion and the Strength Model of Self-Control: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 136 (2010): 495–25; R. G. Baumeister, K. D. Vohs, and D. M. Tice, “The Strength Model of Self-Control,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 16 (2007): 351–55; M. I. Posne and M. K. Rothbart, “Developing Mechanisms of Self-Regulation,” Development and Psychopathology 12 (2000): 427–41; Roy F. Baumeister and Todd F. Heatherton, “Self-Regulation Failure: An Overview,” Psychological Inquiry 7 (1996): 1–15; Kathleen D.


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Cognitive Surplus: Creativity and Generosity in a Connected Age by Clay Shirky

Andrew Keen, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, citizen journalism, corporate social responsibility, Dean Kamen, experimental economics, experimental subject, fundamental attribution error, invention of movable type, invention of the telegraph, Kevin Kelly, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, New Urbanism, Nicholas Carr, social software, Steve Ballmer, The Nature of the Firm, the scientific method, ultimatum game

In 1994, Judy Cameron and David Pierce of the University of Alberta analyzed the results of dozens of studies that had paid experimental subjects to perform various tasks. Their meta-analysis (as such studies of multiple experiments are called) denied the existence of any such crowding-out effect. Deci and research partner Richard Ryan responded in 1999, pointing out that Cameron and Pierce had included a large number of studies noting that people were more motivated to do uninteresting tasks if you paid them, a result no one disputed. What Deci had examined, rather, was intrinsic motivation for tasks a subject was interested in. Deci and Ryan’s own meta-analysis, which excluded boring tasks, again found a crowding-out effect. Cameron and Pierce’s second meta-analysis, in 2001, conceded that the crowding out of free choice can occur with the introduction of extrinsic motivations.

(Zuerichbergstrasse, Zurich: Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, 1999), http://ideas.repec.org/s/zur/iewwpx.html. 73 this sort of crowding out can appear in children as young as fourteen months: Tomasello’s research on children and their view of how things should be, by some ethical compass (a trait called “normativity,” or the understanding and abiding by norms), was published as “The Sources of Normativity: Young Children’s Awareness of the Normative Structure of Games,” with his coauthors, H. Rakoczy and F. Wameken, in Developmental Psychology 44.3 (2008): 875-81. 74 dozens of studies that had paid experimental subjects: Judy Cameron and David Pierce, “Reinforcement, Reward, and Intrinsic Motivation: A Meta-Analysis,” Review of Educational Research 64.3 (1994): 363-423. 74 people were more motivated to do uninteresting tasks if you paid them: Edward L., Deci, Richard Koestner, and Richard Ryan, “A Meta-Analytic Review of Experiments Examining the Effects of Extrinsic Rewards on Intrinsic Motivation,” Psychological Bulletin 125.6 (1999): 627-68. 74 crowding out of free choice can occur with the introduction of extrinsic motivations: J.


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The Case Against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money by Bryan Caplan

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, assortative mating, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, deliberate practice, deskilling, disruptive innovation, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, experimental subject, fear of failure, Flynn Effect, future of work, George Akerlof, ghettoisation, hive mind, job satisfaction, Kenneth Arrow, Khan Academy, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, market bubble, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Peter Thiel, price discrimination, profit maximization, publication bias, risk tolerance, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, school choice, selection bias, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, trickle-down economics, twin studies, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, yield curve, zero-sum game

Journal of Economic Perspectives 23 (3): 93–108. Barnett, Steven. 2011. “Effectiveness of Early Educational Intervention.” Science 333 (6045): 975–78 Barnett, Susan, and Stephen Ceci. 2002. “When and Where Do We Apply What We Learn? A Taxonomy for Far Transfer.” Psychological Bulletin 128 (4): 612–37. Barrick, Murray, and Michael Mount. 1991. “The Big Five Personality Dimensions and Job Performance: A Meta-analysis.” Personality Psychology 44 (1): 1–26. Barro, Robert, and John-Wha Lee. 2001. “International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications.” Oxford Economic Papers 53 (3): 541–63. ———. 2013. “A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010.” Journal of Development Economics 104: 184–98. Bartels, Larry. 2008. “The Opinion-Policy Disconnect: Cross-National Spending Preferences and Democratic Representation.”

“How to Get Really Smart: Modeling Retest and Training Effects in Ability Testing Using Computer-Generated Figural Matrix Items.” Intelligence 39 (4): 233–43. Friedman, Milton. 1982. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ———. 2003. “Letter to Richard Vedder.” September 12. Unpublished. Furnée, Carin, Wim Groot, and Henriëtte Maassen van Den Brink. 2008. “The Health Effects of Education: A Meta-analysis.” European Journal of Public Health 18 (4): 417–21. Ganzach, Yoav. 2003. “Intelligence, Education, and Facets of Job Satisfaction.” Work and Occupations 30 (1): 97–122. Garber, Steven, and Steven Klepper. 1980. “Extending the Classical Normal Errors-in-Variables Model.” Econometrica 48 (6): 1541–46. Gardner, Howard. 1991. The Unschooled Mind: How Children Learn and How Schools Should Teach.

Gregory, Robert, and Jeff Borland. 1999. “Recent Developments in Public Sector Labor Markets.” In Handbook of Labor Economics, vol. 3C, edited by Orley Ashenfelter and David Card, 3573–630. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Grogger, Jeff. 1998. “Market Wages and Youth Crime.” Journal of Labor Economics 16 (4): 756–91. Groot, Wim, and Henriètte Van den Brink. 2000. “Overeducation in the Labor Market: A Meta-analysis.” Economics of Education Review 19 (2): 149–58. Gross, Neil, and Solon Simmons. 2007. “The Social and Political Views of American Professors.” Working Paper, Harvard University. Accessed November 15, 2015. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.147.6141&rep=rep1&type=pdf. Groves, Melissa. 2005. “How Important Is Your Personality? Labor Market Returns to Personality for Women in the US and UK.”


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Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products by Nir Eyal

Airbnb, AltaVista, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, en.wikipedia.org, framing effect, game design, Google Glasses, IKEA effect, Inbox Zero, invention of the telephone, iterative process, Jeff Bezos, Lean Startup, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Oculus Rift, Paul Buchheit, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, QWERTY keyboard, Richard Thaler, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Snapchat, TaskRabbit, telemarketer, the new new thing, Toyota Production System, Y Combinator

As part of a French study, researchers wanted to know if they could influence how much money people handed to a total stranger asking for bus fare by using just a few specially encoded words. They discovered a technique so simple and effective it doubled the amount people gave. The turn of phrase has not only proven to increase how much bus fare people give, but has also been effective in boosting charitable donations and participation in voluntary surveys. In fact, a recent meta-analysis of forty-two studies involving over twenty-two thousand participants concluded that these few words, placed at the end of a request, are a highly effective way to gain compliance, doubling the likelihood of people saying yes.24 The magic words the researchers discovered? The phrase “But you are free to accept or refuse.” The “but you are free” technique demonstrates how we are more likely to be persuaded to give when our ability to choose is reaffirmed.

To help spread the app, a new verse greets the reader on the first page. Below the verse a large blue button reads “Share Verse of the Day.” One click and the daily scripture is blasted to Facebook or Twitter. The drivers behind recently read scripture have not been widely studied. However, one reason may be the reward of portraying oneself in a positive light, also known as the humblebrag.4 A Harvard meta-analysis, “Disclosing information about the self is intrinsically rewarding,” found the act “engages neural and cognitive mechanisms associated with reward.”5 In fact, sharing feels so good that one study found “individuals were willing to forgo money to disclose about the self.” There are many opportunities to share verse from within the Bible App, but one of Gruenewald’s most effective distribution channels is not online but in row—that is, the pews where churchgoers sit side by side every week.

Graham Cluley, “Creepy Quora Erodes Users’ Privacy, Reveals What You Have Read,” Naked Security (accessed Dec. 1, 2013), http://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2012/08/09/creepy-quora-erodes-users-privacy-reveals-what-you-have-read. 23. Sandra Liu Huang, “Removing Feed Stories About Views,” Quora (accessed Nov. 12, 2013), http://www.quora.com/permalink/gG922bywy. 24. Christopher J. Carpenter, “A Meta-analysis of the Effectiveness of the ‘But You Are Free’ Compliance-Gaining Technique,” Communication Studies 64, no. 1 (2013): 6–17, doi:10.1080/10510974.2012.727941. 25. Juho Hamari, “Social Aspects Play an Important Role in Gamification,” Gamification Research Network (accessed Nov. 13, 2013), http://gamification-research.org/2013/07/social-aspects. 26. Josef Adalian, “Breaking Bad Returns to Its Biggest Ratings Ever,” Vulture (accessed Nov. 13, 2013), http://www.vulture.com/2013/08/breaking-bad-returns-to-its-biggest-ratings-ever.html. 27.


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The Behavioral Investor by Daniel Crosby

affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, availability heuristic, backtesting, bank run, Black Swan, buy and hold, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, compound rate of return, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, endowment effect, feminist movement, Flash crash, haute cuisine, hedonic treadmill, housing crisis, IKEA effect, impulse control, index fund, Isaac Newton, job automation, longitudinal study, loss aversion, market bubble, market fundamentalism, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, Murray Gell-Mann, Nate Silver, neurotypical, passive investing, pattern recognition, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, random walk, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, science of happiness, Shai Danziger, short selling, South Sea Bubble, Stanford prison experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, stocks for the long run, Thales of Miletus, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, tulip mania, Vanguard fund

In an attempt to make sense of the general trajectory of the literature on self-esteem, the Association for Psychological Science asked Dr. Roy Baumeister, an admitted proponent of the theory, to meta-analyze the extant data on the subject. What followed was what Dr. Baumeister would go on to refer to as “the biggest disappointment of my career.” Of the 15,000 studies taken into consideration, a paltry .013% of them (that is, 200) met the rigorous standards for inclusion in the meta-analysis. To begin with, it became apparent that many of the theories about self-esteem that had impacted policy were simply junk science. What’s more, the studies that did pass muster didn’t have much good to say about the construct’s predictive power. Self-esteem did not predict academic or career achievement, nor did it predict drug usage or violent behavior. The biggest finding to emerge from the self-esteem movement was that praise did not predict self-esteem, accomplishment did.

In one study, participants who took part in a mindfulness exercise and then were asked about their implicit associations with respect to age and race showed less reliance on bias than a control group who had not completed the mindfulness exercise.102 The simple act of slowing down and heightening awareness reduced reliance on well-worn biases and allowed participants to judge people of different ages and races on their individual merits and not as an overgeneralized whole. The positive potential for applying such nuanced thinking to investment decision-making can hardly be overstated. Although it is a gross simplification, emotion in and around financial markets is often lumped into one of two categories: fear or greed. Meditation, it would seem, is well positioned to tame both. A meta-analysis of 47 trials and 3515 participants found that meditation decreased anxiety, lessened depression and decreased pain. Weaker, but still positive, evidence was found for reducing stress levels and improving overall quality of life.103 For those on the fear end of the fear and greed continuum, meditation is powerful medicine. It is perhaps no surprise to learn that meditation can reduce anxiety, but the literature suggests that it can also rewire the way that we think about and anticipate rewards.

Not only did the simple model outperform the psychologists’ intuition head-to-head, but it also bested psychologists who were given access to the model.109 Models have also been shown to outperform human intuition in predicting the outcomes of Supreme Court decisions,110 Presidential elections (Nate Silver), movie preferences, prison recidivism, wine quality, marital satisfaction and military success, to name just a few of the over 45 domains in which they have demonstrated their superiority.111 A meta-analysis performed by William Grove, David Zald, Boyd Lebow, Beth Snitz and Chad Nelson found that models equal or beat expert decision-making a whopping 94.12% of the time, meaning that they are only defeated by human discretion 5.88% of the time.112 Moreover, many of the domains in which algorithms greatly outperformed had human behavior as a central component (as do financial markets). Job turnover, suicide attempts, juvenile delinquency, college academic performance, length of psychiatric hospitalization, and occupational choice all showed more than a 17-point effect size in favor of the algorithms.


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Humans Are Underrated: What High Achievers Know That Brilliant Machines Never Will by Geoff Colvin

Ada Lovelace, autonomous vehicles, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Black Swan, call centre, capital asset pricing model, commoditize, computer age, corporate governance, creative destruction, deskilling, en.wikipedia.org, Freestyle chess, future of work, Google Glasses, Grace Hopper, industrial cluster, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, job automation, knowledge worker, low skilled workers, Marc Andreessen, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Narrative Science, new economy, rising living standards, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, Skype, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs

See Adam Grant, Give and Take: Why Helping Others Drives Our Success (Penguin Books, 2013). In a company with a giver culture, Grant says . . . These quotations are from Grant, “Givers Take All: The Hidden Dimension of Corporate Culture,” McKinsey Quarterly, April 2013. A giant meta-analysis of studies involving 51,000 people . . . Nathan P. Podsakoff, Steven W. Whiting, Philip M. Podsakoff, Brian D. Blume, “Individual- and Organizational-Level Consequences of Organizational Citizenship Behaviors: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of Applied Psychology 2009, vol. 94, no. 1, pp. 122–141, doi: 10.1037/a0013079. Grant reports how a firm called Appletree Answers . . . Grant, “Givers Take All.” In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks . . . J. Richard Hackman, Michael O’Connor, “What makes for a great analytic team?

In a taker culture, by contrast, “the norm is to get as much as possible from others while contributing less in return. Employees help only when they expect the personal benefits to exceed the costs.” And is that not the very definition of economic rationality? Yet which culture do you think produces better results? We all know the answer. Extensive research shows that the answer is even more impressive than we suspect. A giant meta-analysis of studies involving 51,000 people in companies found that giver behaviors were associated with higher productivity, efficiency, and profit; lower costs, employee turnover, and absenteeism; and greater customer satisfaction. The giver culture works even in environments where employees needn’t interact much, as discovered in that petri dish of organizational research, the call center. Grant reports how a firm called Appletree Answers was plagued by a 97 percent employee turnover rate, a common problem in that industry.

Michael Trimble concludes, in scientific language . . . Trimble, op. cit., p. 95. We’re built to function best on ten hours of sleep a night . . . James B. Maas, Power Sleep: How to Prepare Your Mind for Peak Performance (Villard, 1998), p. 6. A massive study of empathy in U.S. college students . . . Sara H. Konrath, Edward H. O’Brien, Courtney Hsing, “Changes in Dispositional Empathy in American College Students Over Time: A Meta-Analysis,” Personal and Social Psychology Review 15(2), pp. 180–198, doi: 10.1177/1088868310377395. As you would expect, higher narcissism . . . Konrath et al., op. cit., p. 183. Over the past several decades people in developed countries . . . Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (Simon and Schuster, 2000). A well-known program, Roots of Empathy . . .


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Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead by Sheryl Sandberg

affirmative action, business process, Cass Sunstein, constrained optimization, experimental economics, fear of failure, gender pay gap, glass ceiling, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, old-boy network, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, social graph, women in the workforce, young professional

Any risks associated with more hours in child care need to be weighed against the benefits of maternal employment, including decreased maternal depression and more family income” (e-mail to author, February 26, 2012). For a discussion of these findings and issues, see Kathleen McCartney et al., “Testing a Series of Causal Propositions Relating Time in Child Care to Children’s Externalizing Behavior,” Development Psychology 46, no. 1 (2010): 1–17. For a meta-analysis of maternal employment and children’s achievement, see Wendy Goldberg et al., “Maternal Employment and Children’s Achievement in Context: A Meta-Analysis of Four Decades of Research,” Psychological Bulletin 134, no. 1 (2008): 77–108. Scholars have noted that while the preponderance of evidence shows that maternal employment has no adverse effect on young children’s development, maternal employment in the first year of life has been linked with lower cognitive development and behavior issues for some children.

For analysis of how structural position shapes aspirations, see Naomi Casserir and Barbara Reskin, “High Hopes: Organizational Position, Employment Experiences, and Women’s and Men’s Promotion Aspirations,” Work and Occupations 27, no. 4 (2000): 438–63; and Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Men and Women of the Corporation, 2nd ed. (New York: Basic Books, 1993). 7. Alison M. Konrad et al., “Sex Differences and Similarities in Job Attribute Preferences: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 126, no. 4 (2000): 593–641; and Eccles, “Understanding Women’s Educational and Occupational Choices,” 585–609. A survey of highly qualified women found that only 15 percent of them selected “a powerful position” as an important career goal. See Sylvia Ann Hewlett and Carolyn Buck Luce, “Off-Ramps and On-Ramps: Keeping Talented Women on the Road to Success,” Harvard Business Review 83, no. 3 (2005): 48.

., The Sponsor Effect: Breaking Through the Last Glass Ceiling, a Harvard Business Review Research Report (December 2010): 5–7. 2. Studies have found that people who are mentored and sponsored report having more career success (such as higher compensation, a greater number of promotions, greater career and job satisfaction, and more career commitment). See Tammy D. Allen et al., “Career Benefits Associated with Mentoring for Protégés: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of Applied Psychology 89, no. 1 (2004): 127–36. A study of several thousand white collar workers with at least a bachelor’s degree found that sponsorship seemed to encourage both men and women to ask for a stretch assignment and a pay increase. Among the men surveyed who had a sponsor, 56 percent were likely to ask for a stretch assignment and 49 percent were likely to ask for a pay raise.


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If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Happy? by Raj Raghunathan

Broken windows theory, business process, cognitive dissonance, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, fundamental attribution error, hedonic treadmill, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, market clearing, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, Phillip Zimbardo, placebo effect, science of happiness, Skype, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thorstein Veblen, Tony Hsieh, working poor, zero-sum game, Zipcar

Pelled, “Employee Positive Emotion and Favorable Outcomes at the Workplace,” Organization Science 5(1) (1994): 51–71. Happy employees earn more: See E. Diener and R. Biswas-Diener, “Will Money Increase Subjective Well-being?,” Social Indicators Research 57(2) (2002): 119–69; see also M. Pinquart and S. Sörensen, “Influences of Socioeconomic Status, Social Network, and Competence on Subjective Well-being in Later Life: A Meta-analysis,” Psychology and Aging 15(2) (2000): 187. Happier (optimistic) CEOs: J. B. Foster et al., “Setting the Tone for Organizational Success: The Impact of CEO Affect on Organizational Climate and Firm-Level Outcomes,” 17th Annual Meeting of the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 2004. Happier CEOs receive higher performance ratings: M. A. Pritzker, “The Relationship Among CEO Dispositional Attributes, Transformational Leadership Behaviors and Performance Effectiveness” (doctoral dissertation, ProQuest Information & Learning, 2002).

selectively upload . . . most flattering images: Chou and Edge (2012) showed that those who spend more time on Facebook are more likely to believe that other people are leading better lives. H. T. G. Chou and N. Edge, “‘They Are Happier and Having Better Lives than I Am’: The Impact of Using Facebook on Perceptions of Others’ Lives,” Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking 15(2) (2012): 117–21. Facebook triggers more negative feelings: C. Huang, “Internet Use and Psychological Well-being: A Meta-analysis,” Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking 13(3) (2010): 241–49. For a more reader-friendly review of the literature on the impact of exposure to social media on well-being, see www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-facebook-makes-us-unhappy. That said, however, social media may also have a positive impact on people’s moods. Findings from one of the largest-ever studies of Facebook—involving over a billion updates on the website—found that positive emotions spread faster than do negative ones.

have to master that domain: As made popular by Malcolm Gladwell in Outliers, researchers agree that, in general, it takes about ten thousand hours (or about ten years) of practice to master a domain; K. A. Ericsson, R. T. Krampe, and C. Tesch-Römer, “The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance,” Psychological Review 100(3) (1993): 363. Note, however, that there are exceptions to this general rule; see B. N. Macnamara, D. Z. Hambrick, and F. L. Oswald, “Deliberate Practice and Performance in Music, Games, Sports, Education, and Professions: A Meta-analysis,” Psychological Science 25(8) (2014): 1608–18. flow doesn’t . . . come at . . . cost of another’s: This reason was mentioned to me in the interview that I did with Professor Csikszentmihalyi, which can be accessed at https://www.coursera.org/learn/happiness/lecture/hMLNh/week-2-video-7-why-flow-en hances-happiness. See also Moulard et al. (2014), who suggest that people who are motivated by their true passions as opposed to external motivations such as prestige or profits hold an esteemed place because they are perceived as more authentic and less superficial; J.


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Selfie: How We Became So Self-Obsessed and What It's Doing to Us by Will Storr

Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, bitcoin, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, gig economy, greed is good, invisible hand, job automation, John Markoff, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, Lyft, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mont Pelerin Society, mortgage debt, Mother of all demos, Nixon shock, Peter Thiel, QWERTY keyboard, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, twin studies, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, War on Poverty, Whole Earth Catalog

Keith Campbell mulled over his research into narcissistic behaviour. Suddenly, the idea seemed obvious. Why not put their interests together? Why not see if narcissism in America had changed along with the culture? It would be a while until the all necessary data became available. But eventually, in 2008, they published the details of what they’d discovered in the Journal of Personality. They’d completed a meta-analysis of eighty-five studies that included the narcissism data from an impressive 16,475 college students, stretching back to the early 1980s. These students had taken the Narcissism Personality Index, or ‘NPI’, a test used widely by psychologists to measure narcissistic traits. Their paper, ‘Egos Inflating Over Time’, suggested that, between 1982 and 1989, average NPI scores actually went down, from 15.55 out of a possible 40 to 14.99.

Meanwhile, the principle of free speech seems to be venerated less than ever: a 2015 Pew survey found 40 per cent of US millennials agreeing that the government should be able to prevent speech that’s offensive to minorities. For Generation X, that figure was 27 per cent, whilst for the boomers it was 24 per cent. The rise in individualism that studies have found also seems to have brought with it a dramatic decline in empathy. A meta-analysis by Dr Sara Konrath at the University of Michigan indicated that today’s college students are 40 per cent less empathetic than students in the 1980s. They’re less likely to agree with statements such as, ‘I often have tender, concerned feelings for people less fortunate than me,’ and ‘I sometimes try to understand my friends better by imagining how things look from their perspective.’ They also trust less.

They’re also thought to experience synaesthesia: ‘Synesthesia: A new approach to understanding the development of perception’, Ferrinne Spector, Daphne Maurer, Developmental Psychology (January 2009), 45(1), pp. 175–89. These connections start dying off at a rate of up to 100,000 per second: The Self Illusion, Bruce Hood (Constable, 2011), p. 15. In a major study, researchers in Queensland collated the results of 2,748 papers: ‘Meta-analysis of the heritability of human traits based on fifty years of twin studies’, Tinca J. C. Polderman et al., Nature Genetics (May 2015), 47, pp. 702–9. Co-author Beben Benyamin added: ‘Are we products of nature or nurture? Science answers age-old question’, 19 May 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/­science/­2015/may/­19/­are-we-products-of-nature-or-nuture-science-answers-age-old-question. Children growing up in Tanzania: Interview, Sophie Scott.


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Top Dog: The Science of Winning and Losing by Po Bronson, Ashley Merryman

Asperger Syndrome, Berlin Wall, Charles Lindbergh, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, Edward Glaeser, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, game design, industrial cluster, Jean Tirole, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, phenotype, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, school choice, selection bias, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Steve Jobs, zero-sum game

Ibáñez, Enrique Ortega, Nuno Leite, & Jaime Sampaio, “An Analysis of Defensive Strategies Used by Home and Away Basketball Teams,” Perceptual & Motor Skills, vol. 110(1), pp. 159–166 (2010) Han, Ru, Shu Li, & Jian-Nong Shi, “The Territorial Prior-Residence Effect and Children’s Behavior in Social Dilemmas,” Environment & Behavior, vol. 41(5), pp. 644–657 (2009) Hansen, Darah, “How the Right Seat Can Reduce Office Stress,” Staff Blog, Vancouver Sun, http://bit.ly/pnxrnn (9/19/2011) Hirst, Alison, “Settlers, Vagrants and Mutual Indifference: Unintended Consequences of Hot-Desking,” Journal of Organizational Change Management, vol. 24(6), pp. 767–788 (2011) Ibáñez, Sergio J., Javier García, Sebastian Feu, Alberto Lorenzo, & Jaime Sampaio, “Effects of Consecutive Basketball Games on the Game-Related Statistics that Discriminate Winner and Losing Teams,” Journal of Sports Science & Medicine, vol. 8(3), pp. 458–462 (2009) Jamieson, Jeremy P., “The Home Field Advantage in Athletics: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of Applied Social Psychology, vol. 40(7), pp. 1819–1848 (2010) Jansen, Friederike, Rebecca S. Heiming, Vanessa Kloke, Sylvia Kaiser, Rupert Palme, Klaus-Peter Lesch, & Norbert Sachser, “Away Game or Home Match: The Influence of Venue and Serotonin Transporter Genotype on the Display of Offensive Aggression,” Behavioural Brain Research, vol. 219(2), pp. 291–301 (2011) Jones, Marshall B., “Home Advantage in the NBA as a Game-Long Process,” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, vol. 3(4), art. 2 (2007) Koning, Ruud H., “Home Advantage in Speed Skating: Evidence from Individual Data,” Journal of Sports Sciences, vol. 23(4), pp. 417–427 (2005) Koyama, Mark, & J.

Findings Relating to Genetic Variations of COMT and Cognitive Functioning: In the scientific literature, the genetic variations of COMT are typically referred to as “met-met,” “val-val,” and “val-met,” referring the possible allele combinations. Someone with two methionine (“met”) instructions—the slower enzyme—would be “met-met.” Having two valine (“val”), and thus the faster enzyme processing, would be “val-val.” And val-met is naturally someone with one of each. Barnett, J. H., P. B. Jones, T. W. Robbins, & U. Müller, “Effects of the Catechol-O-Methyltransferase Val 158Met Polymorphism on Executive Function: A Meta-Analysis of the Wisconsin Card Sort Test in Schizophrenia and Healthy Controls,” Molecular Psychiatry, vol. 12(5), pp. 502–509 (2007) Barnett, Jennifer H., Jon Heron, Susan M. Ring, Jean Golding, David Goldman, Ke Xu, & Peter B. Jones, “Gender-Specific Effects of the Catechol-O-Methyltransferase Val108/158Met Polymorphism on Cognitive Function in Children,” American Journal of Psychiatry, vol. 164(1), pp. 142–149 (2007) Blasi, Giuseppe, Venkata S.

., Honus Wagner: The Life of Baseball’s “Flying Dutchman,” Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co. (1996) Mendelson, Abby, “Honus Wagner,” Pittsburgh Pirates, http://atmlb.com/PDax1p (2012) Society for American Baseball Research, The SABR Baseball List & Record Book: Baseball’s Most Fascinating Records, New York: Simon & Schuster (2007) “Statistics,” Major League Baseball, MLB.com, http://atmlb.com/Q65Z1w (2012) “Stealing Second → Stealing Third → Stealing Home,” Baseball Almanac, http://bit.ly/q2BoIm (2012) Sulloway, Frank J., Born to Rebel, New York: Vintage (1997) Sulloway, Frank, Interview with Author (2011) Sulloway, Frank J., & Richard L. Zweigenhaft, “Birth Order and Risk Taking in Athletics: A Meta-Analysis and Study of Major League Baseball,” Personality & Social Psychology Review, vol. 14(4), pp. 402–416 (2010) 4. Sibling Conflict: We dedicated an entire chapter of our book, NurtureShock, to sibling conflict. We invite you to look there for a fuller discussion of the nature of sibling arguments, research on how to respond to sibling quarreling, et cetera. (A couple of the studies briefly mentioned in this book, regarding the frequency of sibling quarrels, are addressed more fully in its pages, as well.)


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The Pot Book: A Complete Guide to Cannabis by Julie Holland

Berlin Wall, Burning Man, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, mandatory minimum, Maui Hawaii, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, phenotype, placebo effect, profit motive, publication bias, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Stephen Hawking, University of East Anglia, zero-sum game

However, as we found in our review of acute effects, the most consistent chronic effects of cannabis on cognition relate to learning and memory. Grant and colleagues (2003) conducted a meta-analysis of eleven studies investigating the long-term effects of cannabis on cognition and found effect sizes suggesting decrements in participants’ ability to learn and remember information. However, the meta-analysis revealed no consistent effects in all other neuropsychological domains examined, including verbal/language, perceptual/ motor, abstraction/executive, and attention. It should be noted that the inclusion criteria used in this meta-analysis were relatively strict, requiring that studies included a group of “cannabis only” users as well as appropriate controls. Additional requirements were that the cannabis users were drug-free on the days of testing, that the periods of abstinence from cannabis prior to testing were noted, that the studies provided sufficient information for calculating effect size, that valid neuropsychological tests were used as outcome measures, and that the studies addressed participants’ potential use of other substances as well as their neurological and psychiatric histories.

By contrast, prospective cohort studies do not support a role for cannabis use in causing anxiety disorders, as reviewed in a meta-analysis (Moore et al. 2007); only two of seven studies found an association of anxiety disorder with previous cannabis use when potential confounding factors were adjusted for. Also, several studies had high dropout rates. If healthier individuals are more likely to drop out, whereas the anxious individuals are more likely to return, this could lead to an apparent association of cannabis use with anxiety that would be false. CAN CANNABIS LEAD TO DEPRESSION? Ten cohort studies of cannabis use and depression diagnosis were identified in the Lancet meta-analysis and review (Moore et al. 2007). Only half of these—five studies—reported a significant association after adjusting for a few potential confounders.

We have obtained support for licensing Craker from forty-five congressional representatives and Senators Kerry and Kennedy, but that hasn’t been enough yet to pressure the DEA to approve the license.*26 MAPS is also sponsoring research into MDMA-assisted psychotherapy (Ecstasy-assisted psychotherapy) for subjects with treatment-resistant PTSD. We have concluded two pilot studies, one in the United States and one in Switzerland, with a meta-analysis generating statistically and clinically significant reductions in PTSD symptoms in our full-dose MDMA group. We have just obtained FDA approval for a new MDMA/PTSD pilot study entirely comprised of U.S. veterans with chronic PTSD. We also have started an MDMA/PTSD pilot study in Israel and are close to starting additional MDMA/PTSD pilot studies in Jordan, Canada, and Spain. MAPS’s MDMA/PTSD research has taught us a great deal, and we’re eager to try to conduct marijuana/PTSD research to compare and contrast with MDMA for PTSD.


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The Hidden Half: How the World Conceals Its Secrets by Michael Blastland

air freight, Alfred Russel Wallace, banking crisis, Bayesian statistics, Berlin Wall, central bank independence, cognitive bias, complexity theory, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, epigenetics, experimental subject, full employment, George Santayana, hindsight bias, income inequality, manufacturing employment, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum wage unemployment, nudge unit, oil shock, p-value, personalized medicine, phenotype, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, randomized controlled trial, replication crisis, Richard Thaler, selection bias, the map is not the territory, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, twin studies

The big fall in teenage pregnancy began abruptly about eight years later around 2007/8. In between, not much happened. Supporters of the strategy say it took time to build up and was tweaked so that it began to bite precisely when the numbers began to fall sharply. Perhaps, though this would have been an extraordinarily powerful and well-calibrated tweak. But a meta-analysis of sex education across countries by a group of respected researchers known as the Cochrane Collaboration found that this element alone didn’t seem to make much difference.4 However, another meta-analysis by another group of Cochrane researchers found that a combination of education and contraceptive promotion did seem to make a difference.5 So maybe both, but not one. Or the right kind of each in the right combination. It’s hard to be sure. Not least because a number of other countries also saw large falls in their teenage pregnancy rates, and not all had strategies like the UK’s.

They seem to reveal powerful effects when in truth we’ve often no idea of their power or relevance from the information given. I am past being polite about this. The habit is careless at best, in the worst cases deceitful or incompetent, and it is miserably persistent. Probabilities (such as risks) that make big headlines frequently turn out to be the kind of ‘big’ knowledge I could easily have lived and died without, and often simply ignore. The most recent example I came across was a meta-analysis to suggest there was no safe level of alcohol consumption, and people should consider abstention. Again, the risk boiled down to a question of probabilities. But the study failed to add – contrary to the guidelines of the journal in which it was published – what unsafe meant for low levels of drinking in human terms. Assuming the underlying data was correct, here’s the answer: about 918 people in 100,000 who drank one alcoholic drink a day would develop an alcohol-related health problem in a year, compared with 914 in 100,000 who abstained.

There’s very seldom going to be the case that there is the one factor that you could remove and everything else would work pretty much as it does except that this causeway would be blocked and the outcome wouldn’t happen.’ In the end, the answer to what caused this extraordinary change in teenage sexual behaviour is that we can’t say. We don’t know. Big and sudden it may be, clear it isn’t. Every method used to try to find out (from logistic regression to meta-analysis and personal experience) has its potential flaws. Every piece of evidence is qualified or contradicted by others, or simply raises other questions. It’s a cautionary tale about the dangers of looking for the cause. First, this distracts us from problems of interaction, which can be monstrously complicated and unstable. Second, by elevating a single cause above others we’re likely to overestimate our powers of control, as a single cause will seem easier to repeat or sustain than a messy combination.


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Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking by Susan Cain

8-hour work day, Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, call centre, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, game design, hive mind, index card, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, new economy, popular electronics, Ralph Waldo Emerson, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, telemarketer, The Wisdom of Crowds, traveling salesman, twin studies, Walter Mischel, web application, white flight

It may be “simply a reflection of the populations sampled and included.” In fact, a wholly separate survey, this one using the Eysenck Personality Inventory and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire rather than the Myers-Briggs test, indicates that extraversion scores have increased over time (from 1966 to 1993) for both men and women: see Jean M. Twenge, “Birth Cohort Changes in Extraversion: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis, 1966–1993,” Personality and Individual Differences 30 (2001): 735–48. 14. United States is among the most extroverted of nations: This has been noted in two studies: (1) Juri Allik and Robert R. McCrae, “Toward a Geography of Personality Traits: Patterns of Profiles Across 36 Cultures,” Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 35 (2004): 13–28; and (2) Robert R. McCrae and Antonio Terracciano, “Personality Profiles of Cultures: Aggregate Personality Traits,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 89:3 (2005): 407–25. 15.

MacKinnon, “The Nature and Nurture of Creative Talent” (Walter Van Dyke Bingham Lecture given at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, April 11, 1962). See also MacKinnon, “Personality and the Realization of Creative Potential,” Presidential Address presented at Western Psychological Association, Portland, Oregon, April 1964. 4. One of the most interesting findings: See, for example, (1) Gregory J. Feist, “A Meta-Analysis of Personality in Scientific and Artistic Creativity,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 2, no. 4 (1998): 290–309; (2) Feist, “Autonomy and Independence,” Encyclopedia of Creativity, vol. 1 (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1999), 157–63; and (3) Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Creativity: Flow and the Psychology of Discovery and Invention (New York: Harper Perennial, 1996), 65–68. There are some studies showing a correlation between extroversion and creativity, but in contrast to the studies by MacKinnon, Csikszentmihalyi, and Feist, which followed people whose careers had proven them to be exceptionally creative “in real life,” these tend to be studies of college students measuring subjects’ creativity in more casual ways, for example by analyzing their personal hobbies or by asking them to play creativity games like writing a story about a picture.

(Note also that the link between the short allele of the SERT gene and depression in humans is well discussed but somewhat controversial.) 38. thought to be associated with high reactivity and introversion: Seth J. Gillihan et al., “Association Between Serotonin Transporter Genotype and Extraversion,” Psychiatric Genetics 17, no. 6 (2007): 351–54. See also M. R. Munafo et al., “Genetic Polymorphisms and Personality in Healthy Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” Molecular Psychiatry 8 (2003): 471–84. And see Cecilie L. Licht et al., “Association Between Sensory Processing Sensitivity and the 5-HTTLPR Short/Short Genotype.” 39. has speculated that these high-reactive monkeys: Dobbs, “The Science of Success.” 40. adolescent girls with the short allele of the SERT gene … less anxiety on calm days: Belsky et al., “Vulnerability Genes or Plasticity Genes?”


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Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge From Small Discoveries by Peter Sims

Amazon Web Services, Black Swan, Clayton Christensen, complexity theory, David Heinemeier Hansson, deliberate practice, discovery of penicillin, endowment effect, fear of failure, Frank Gehry, Guggenheim Bilbao, Jeff Bezos, knowledge economy, lateral thinking, Lean Startup, longitudinal study, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, PageRank, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, Ruby on Rails, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, theory of mind, Toyota Production System, urban planning, Wall-E

What’s more, greater than 40 percent of the group lied about their score to improve it (few students praised for their effort lied). All of this implied that when students were valued for their intelligence, failures would be taken more personally, even as being disgraceful. Dweck’s findings about praise counter broadly held beliefs about developing self-esteem and confidence, but her work has received relatively little criticism. Followup studies, including a meta-analysis of 150 praise studies by scholars at Stanford and Reed College, supported the core findings: Praising ability alone reduces persistence, while praising effort or the processes a person goes through to learn leads to growth mind-set behaviors. Dweck has found this to apply regardless of age. Once again, Pixar is a great example; the company’s management philosophy is thoroughly premised on having a growth mind-set.

Blackwell, Kali H. Trzesniewski, and Carol Dweck, Child Development, 78, 246–263. “Caution: Praise Can Be Dangerous,” American Educator, Spring 1999. “Children’s Implicit Personality Theories as Predictors of Their Social Judgments,” by Cynthia A. Erdley and Carol Dweck, Child Development, 1993, 64, 863–878. “The Effects of Praise on Children’s Intrinsic Motivation: A Review and Synthesis,” (a meta-analysis) by Jennifer Henderlong and Mark R. Lepper, Psychological Bulletin, 2002, vol. 128, 5, 774–795. “The Perils and Promises of Praise,” by Carol Dweck, Early Intervention at Every Age, vol. 65, 2, 34–39. For a good general overview of Dweck’s research and related reactions: “How Not to Talk to Your Kids,” by Po Bronson, New York Magazine, February 11, 2007, which can be found at: http://nymag.com/news/features/27840/.

Victor Navone quotes drawn from “Inside Dailies at Pixar: Expressing Your Opinion About Changes in Animation” by Victor Navone, Animation Mentor Newsletter, September 2009. Additional detail on Pixar creative process from interviews with Pixar employees, including Pete Docter, director of Monsters Inc. and Up, including John Lasseter quote about films not ever being finished, just released. Pixar website also has some good additional details at: http://www.pixar.com/artistscorner. Effects of humor and laughter: Selection of insights taken from meta-analysis of psychology research: “Humor and Group Effectiveness,” by Eric Romero and Anthony Pescosolido, Human Relations, March 2008, 395–418. Correlations between humor and trust: “The Relationship between Humor and Trust,” by W. P. Hampes, Humor, 1999, 12, 253–9. “Relation between Humor and Empathic Concern,” by W. P. Hampes, Psychological Reports, 2001, 88, 241–4. “Toward a Sense of Organizational Humor: Implications for Organizational Diagnosis and Change,” by W.


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Mindwise: Why We Misunderstand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want by Nicholas Epley

affirmative action, airport security, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Cass Sunstein, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, friendly fire, invisible hand, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, payday loans, Peter Singer: altruism, pirate software, Richard Thaler, school choice, social intelligence, the scientific method, theory of mind

American Psychologist 60: 581–92. 22. Actually, in all but one culture. One sample in Spain showed results in the same direction, but it was not statistically significant. Overall, the gender differences were large and consistent. None are in the opposite direction. 23. Hyde, J. S. (2005). The gender similarities hypothesis. American Psychologist 60: 581–92. Hyde’s main evidence is based on a meta-analysis of as many published reports of studies that tallied results by gender as she could find, assessing gender effects across several different categories: cognitive variables (math, memory, overall intelligence, spatial skills), verbal and nonverbal communication (talkativeness, language ability, smiling), social and personality variables (physical and verbal aggression, leadership style and skill, extroversion), psychological well-being (happiness, anxiety, self-esteem, depression), and motor skills (throwing velocity and distance, running speed, activity level).

Cognition 111: 138–43; Rosset, E. (2008). It’s no accident: Our bias for intentional explanations. Cognition 108: 771–80. 22. Gilbert, D. T., B. W. Pelham, and D. S. Krull (1988). On cognitive busyness: When person perceivers meet persons perceived. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54: 733–40. 23. Steblay, N., et al. (2006). The impact on juror verdicts of judicial instruction to disregard inadmissible evidence: A meta-analysis. Law and Human Behavior 30: 469–92. 24. Kassin, S. M., and H. Sukel (1997). Coerced confessions and the jury: An experimental test of the “harmless error” rule. Law and Human Behavior 21: 27–46; Kassin, S. M., D. Bogart, and J. Kerner (2012). Confessions that corrupt: Evidence from the DNA exoneration case files. Psychological Science 23: 41–45; Wallace, D. B., and S. M. Kassin (2012). Harmless error analysis: How do judges respond to confession errors?

Schmid Mast (2007). Sources of accuracy in the empathic accuracy paradigm. Emotion 7: 438–46; Reinhard, M. A., et al. (2011). Listening, not watching: Situational familiarity and the ability to detect deception. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 101: 467–84. 5. Blanch-Hartigan, D., S. A. Andrzejewski, and K. M. Hill (2012). The effectiveness of training to improve person perception: A meta-analysis. Basic and Applied Social Psychology 34: 483–98. 6. Lopata, C., et al. (2008). Effectiveness of a manualized summer social treatment program for high-functioning children with autism spectrum disorders. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders 38: 890–904; McKenzie, K., et al. (2000). Impact of group training on emotion recognition in individuals with a learning disability. British Journal of Learning Disabilities 28: 143–47; Moffatt, C.


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Stealing Fire: How Silicon Valley, the Navy SEALs, and Maverick Scientists Are Revolutionizing the Way We Live and Work by Steven Kotler, Jamie Wheal

3D printing, Alexander Shulgin, augmented reality, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, Colonization of Mars, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, delayed gratification, disruptive innovation, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, high batting average, hive mind, Hyperloop, impulse control, informal economy, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, lateral thinking, Mason jar, Maui Hawaii, McMansion, means of production, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, music of the spheres, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, PIHKAL and TIHKAL, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, science of happiness, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, Tony Hsieh, urban planning

Do these short-term peaks enable us to solve real-world problems? In 2013 we were invited to participate in the Red Bull Hacking Creativity project,35 a joint effort involving scientists at the MIT Media Lab, a group of TED Fellows, and the namesake energy drink company. Conceived by Dr. Andy Walshe, Red Bull’s director of high performance (and a member of Flow Genome Project’s advisory board), the project was the largest meta-analysis of creativity research ever conducted, reviewing more than thirty thousand research papers and interviewing hundreds of other subject-matter experts, from break dancers and circus performers to poets and rock stars. “It was an impossible goal,” Walshe explained, “but I figured if we could crack something as hard to pin down as creativity, we could figure out almost anything after that.” As of late 2016, with the initial phases of the research completed, the study came to two overarching conclusions.

For a solid overview see John Ratey and Eric Hagerman, Spark: The Revolutionary New Science of Exercise and the Brain (New York: Little, Brown, 2013). 26. get some natural sunshine: Michael Holick, “Vitamin D Deficiency,” New England Journal of Medicine 357 (2007): 266–81. 27. practice meditation for fifteen minutes: Jennifer Haythornthwaite et al., “Meditation Programs for Psychological Stress and Well-being: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” JAMA Internal Medicine 174, no. 3 (2014): 357–68. 28. Tibetan monks can shut off: Judson Brewer et al., “Meditation Experience Is Associated with Difference in Default Mode Network Activity and Connectivity,” PNAS 108, no. 50 (December 13, 2011): 20254–59. 29. SEAL snipers tune their brainwaves to the alpha frequency: This comes from work done by Chris Berka and her team at Advanced Brain Monitoring.

Since rolling out their program, Aetna estimates: Joe Pinsker, “Corporations’ Newest Productivity Hack: Meditation,” Atlantic, March 10, 2015. 41. the meditation and mindfulness industry grew to nearly $1 billion: Jan Wieczner, “Meditation Has Become a Billion-Dollar Business,” Fortune, March 12, 2016. 42. At Harvard, Professor Tal Ben Shahar’s: Craig Lambert, ’The Science of Happiness,” Harvard Magazine, January–February 2007. 43. By college, many Millennials have reached: Pfaffenberger, ed., The Postconventional Personality, p. 60. 44. researchers began finding the practice did everything: N. P. Gothe and E. McAuley, “Yoga and Cognition: A Meta-Analysis of Chronic and Acute Effects,” Psychosomatic Medicine 77, no. 7 (September 2015): 784–97; N. R. Okonta, “Does Yoga Therapy Reduce Blood Pressure in Patients with Hypertension? An integrative Review,” Holistic Nursing Practitioner 26, no. 3 (May–June 2012): 137–41. 45. As of 2015, some 36 million Americans: Marlynn Wei, “New Survey Reveals the Rapid Rise of Yoga—and Why Some People Still Haven’t Tried It,” Harvard Health Publication, June 15, 2016. 46. more popular, in terms of participation, than football: 2016 Yoga in America Study, Yoga Journal and Yoga Alliance, http://www.yogajournal.com/yogainamericastudy/. 47.


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Practical Manual of Thyroid and Parathyroid Disease by Asit Arora, Neil Tolley, R. Michael Tuttle

Drosophila, epigenetics, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, selection bias

Subclinical thyroid disease. Am Fam Physician 2005;72:1517–24. Much of the evidence of this chapter has been taken from the most recent national guidelines. Where appropriate within the text, references have been classified into the definition of types of evidence based on Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (1992). MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS Level Type of evidence Ia Evidence obtained from meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials Evidence obtained from at least one randomized controlled trial Evidence obtained from at least one well-designed controlled study without randomization Evidence obtained from at least on other type of well-designed quasi-experimental study Evidence obtained from well designed nonexperimental descriptive studies Evidence obtained from expert committee reports or opinions and/or clinical experience of respected authorities Ib IIa IIb III IV REFERENCES 1.

However, in the treatment of hypothyroidism following surgery for differentiated thyroid carcinoma, the thyroxine dose is suppressive to ensure an undetectable TSH. There is anecdotal evidence that some hypothyroid patients have neuropsychological symptoms which persist despite a normalized TSH. Some of these patients appear to benefit from a combination of T3 replacement in addition to T4 replacement therapy. However, a recent 63 meta-analysis study showed that combined T4 and T3 therapy has no clear advantage over T4 monotherapy for improving thyroid function, quality of life, mood and psychometric parameters.10 T3 monotherapy is well established in the management of thyroid cancer to minimize the period of hypothyroidism prior to therapeutic radioiodine treatment. There is no evidence for its use in the treatment of primary hypothyroidism.

A radiation absorbed dose to the thyroid remnant greater than 300 Gy did not result in a higher ablation rate.7 Successful ablation was achieved in 77% of thyroid remnants with the lower dose of 1.85 GBq. Maxon et al. used dosimetry to individualize administered activity to deliver a radiation dose of 300 Gy to the thyroid remnant.8 They reported an 81% successful ablation rate with no advantage associated with administration of a dose greater than 300 Gy. However, one meta-analysis found that a single administered activity of 1110 MBq was less likely to ablate thyroid remnants successfully compared with higher activities of 2775–3700 MBq.9 A recent comprehensive systematic review of all published literature concluded it was not possible to determine reliably whether ablation success rates using 1.1 GBq were similar to that using 3.7 GBq.10 The HiLo trial (Cancer Research UK) is the first prospective multicentre randomized trial of thyroid cancer to be conducted in the UK.


Theory and Practice of Group Psychotherapy by Irvin D. Yalom, Molyn Leszcz

cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, delayed gratification, deskilling, epigenetics, experimental subject, impulse control, meta analysis, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial, the scientific method, traveling salesman, unbiased observer

Where specific references exist at www.yalom.com, a † has been added to the text in this book. CHAPTER 1 1 C. McRoberts, G. Burlingame, and M. Hoag, “Comparative Efficacy of Individual and Group Psychotherapy: A Meta-Analytic Perspective,” Group Dynamics: Theory, Research, and Practice 2 (1998): 101–117. M. Smith, G. Glass, and T. Miller, The Benefits of Psychotherapy (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980). L. Tillitski, “A Meta-Analysis of Estimated Effect Sizes for Group Versus Individual Versus Control Treatments,” International Journal of Group Psychotherapy 40 (1990): 215–24. G. Burlingame, K. MacKenzie, and B. Strauss, “Small-Group Treatment: Evidence for Effectiveness and Mechanisms of Change,” in Bergin and Garfield’s Handbook of Psychotherapy and Behavior Change, 5th ed., ed. M. Lambert (New York: Wiley and Sons, 2004), 647–96. 2 S.

Lopez, “An Open Door Review of Outcome Studies in Psychoanalysis.” London: International Psychoanalytical Association, 1999. CHAPTER 3 1 C. McRoberts, G. Burlingame, and M. Hoag, “Comparative Efficacy of Individual and Group Psychotherapy: A Meta-analytic Perspective,” Group Dynamics: Theory, Research, and Practice 2 (1998): 101–17. W. McDermut, I. Miller, and R. Brown, “The Efficacy of Group Psychotherapy for Depression: A Meta-Analysis and Review of Empirical Research,” Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice 8 (2001): 98–116. G. Burlingame, K. MacKenzie, and B. Strauss, “Small-Group Treatment: Evidence for Effectiveness and Mechanisms of Change,” in Bergin and Garfield’s Handbook of Psychotherapy and Behavior Change, 5th ed., ed. M. Lambert (New York: Wiley, 2004), 647–96. L. Luborsky, P. Crits-Christoph, J. Mintz, and A.

A. Bergin and M. Lambert, “The Evaluation of Therapeutic Outcomes,” in Handbook of Psychotherapy and Behavioral Change: An Empirical Analysis, 2nd ed., ed. S. Garfield and A. Bergin (New York: Wiley, 1978), 139–83. R. Bednar and T. Kaul, “Experiential Group Research: Can the Canon Fire?” in Garfield and Bergin, Handbook of Psychotherapy and Behavioral Change, 4th ed., 631–63. C. Tillitski, “A Meta-Analysis of Estimated Effect Sizes for Group Versus Individual Versus Control Treatments,” International Journal of Group Psychotherapy 40 (1990): 215–24. R. Toseland and M. Siporin, “When to Recommend Group Therapy: A Review of the Clinical and Research Literature,” International Journal of Group Psychotherapy 36 (1986): 171–201. 2 W. McFarlane et al., “Multiple-Family Groups in Psychoeducation in the Treatment of Schizophrenia,” Archives of General Psychiatry 52 (1996): 679–87.


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The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload by Daniel J. Levitin

airport security, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Anton Chekhov, Bayesian statistics, big-box store, business process, call centre, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive bias, complexity theory, computer vision, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Eratosthenes, Exxon Valdez, framing effect, friendly fire, fundamental attribution error, Golden Gate Park, Google Glasses, haute cuisine, impulse control, index card, indoor plumbing, information retrieval, invention of writing, iterative process, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, life extension, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, more computing power than Apollo, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, optical character recognition, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, phenotype, placebo effect, pre–internet, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, Rubik’s Cube, shared worldview, Skype, Snapchat, social intelligence, statistical model, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Bayes, Turing test, ultimatum game, zero-sum game

educational attainment Hampson, S. E., Goldberg, L. R., Vogt, T. M., & Dubanoski, J. P. (2007). Mechanisms by which childhood personality traits influence adult health status: Educational attainment and healthy behaviors. Health Psychology, 26(1), 121–125, p. 121. criteria related to career success Barrick, M. R., & Mount, M. K. (1991). The big five personality dimensions and job performance: A meta-analysis. Personnel Psychology, 44(1), 1–26. and, Roberts, B. W., Chernyshenko, O. S., Stark, S., & Goldberg, L. R. (2005). The structure of conscientiousness: An empirical investigation based on seven major personality questionnaires. Personnel Psychology, 58(1), 103–139. better recovery outcomes following surgery Kamran, F. (2013). Does conscientiousness increase quality of life among renal transplant recipients?

Students who studied for an exam Farnsworth, P. R. (1934). Examinations in familiar and unfamiliar surroundings. The Journal of Social Psychology, 5(1), 128–129. and, Smith, S. M. (1979). Remembering in and out of context. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 5(5), 460–471, p. 460. and, Smith, S. M., & Vela, E. (2001). Environmental context-dependent memory: A review and meta-analysis. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 8(2), 203–220. brain simply wasn’t designed I’m using the term designed loosely; the brain wasn’t designed, it evolved as a collection of special-purpose processing modules. 1941 by the Oxford Filing Supply Company Jonas, F. D. (1942). U.S. Patent No. 2305710 A. East Williston, NY. U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Related patents by Jonas and Oxford include US2935204, 2312717, 2308077, 2800907, 3667854, 2318077, and many others.

Sexual and Marital Therapy 8(3), 243–253. Intimacy, love, and passion . . . belong to completely different, multidimensional constructs Acker, M., & Davis, M. H. (1992). Intimacy, passion and commitment in adult romantic relationships: A test of the triangular theory of love. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 9(1), 21–50. and, Graham, J. M. (2011). Measuring love in romantic relationships: A meta-analysis. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 28(6), 748–771. and, Sternberg, R. J. (1986). A triangular theory of love. Psychological Review, 93(2), 119. Just like our chimpanzee cousins Hare, B., Call, J., & Tomasello, M. (2006). Chimpanzees deceive a human competitor by hiding. Cognition, 101(3), 495–514. and, McNally, L., & Jackson, A. L. (2013). Cooperation creates selection for tactical deception.


Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All by Michael Shellenberger

Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, Bernie Sanders, Bob Geldof, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, clean water, Corn Laws, coronavirus, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, energy transition, failed state, Gary Taubes, global value chain, Google Earth, hydraulic fracturing, index fund, Indoor air pollution, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, land tenure, Live Aid, LNG terminal, long peace, manufacturing employment, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, Potemkin village, purchasing power parity, Ralph Nader, renewable energy transition, Steven Pinker, supervolcano, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, trade route, union organizing, WikiLeaks, Y2K

Robert DuBroff and Michel de Lorgeril, “Fat or fiction: The diet-heart hypothesis,” British Medical Journal: Evidence-Based Medicine, May 29, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjebm-2019-111180. 73. Mi Ah Han, Dena Zeraatkar, Gordon H. Guyatt et al., “Reduction of Red and Processed Meat Intake and Cancer Mortality and Incidence: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Cohort Studies,” Annals of Internal Medicine 171, no. 10 (October 2019): 711–20, https://doi.org/10.7326/M19-0699. Dena Zeraatkar, Mi Ah Han, Gordon H. Guyatt et al., “Red and Processed Meat Consumption and Risk for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiometabolic Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Cohort Studies,” Annals of Internal Medicine 171, no. 10 (October 2019): 703–10, https://doi.org/10.7326/M19-0655. 74. Aaron E. Carroll, “The Real Problem with Beef,” New York Times, October 1, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com. 75. Smil, Should We Eat Meat?

Mike Shellenberger (@ ShellenbergerMD), “No sooner had I landed in Germany, for 2017 U.N. climate talks, when I was confronted by airport ads paid for by Total, the French oil and gas company reading, ‘Committed to Solar’ and ‘Committed to Natural Gas,’ ” Twitter (text/image), March 28, 2019, 8:22 a.m., https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1111287183497789440. 26. Lisa Linowes (executive director, Wind Action Group) in conversation with the author, November 1, 2019. 27. Ibid. 28. Ibid. 29. John van Zalk and Paul Behrens, “The Spatial Extent of Renewable and Non-renewable Power Generation: A Review and Meta-analysis of Power Densities and Their Application in the U.S.,” Energy Policy 123 (December 2018): 83–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.023. 30. Lisa Linowes (executive director, Wind Action Group) in conversation with the author, November 1, 2019. 31. Ibid. 32. Paul M. Cryan, “Wind Turbines as Landscape Impediments to the Migratory Connectivity of Bats,” Journal of Environmental Law 41 (May 2011): 355–70, https://www.lclark.edu/live/files/8520-412cryan. 33.

The fuel economy of U.S. cars averaged 24.9 miles per gallon. For every gallon of gasoline, 1.5 gallons of ethanol (E100) is needed. In 2017, U.S. cropland totaled 396 million acres. The amount of land needed to replace all gasoline with pure ethanol would be 653.3 million acres, an increase of 51 percent. 96. John van Zalk and Paul Behrens, “The spatial extent of renewable and non-renewable power generation: A review and meta-analysis of power densities and their application in the US,” Energy Policy 123 (2018): 83–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.08.023. 97. Ibid., 83–91. 98. Jesse Jenkins, Mark Moro, Ted Nordhaus et al., Beyond Boom & Bust: Putting Clean Tech on a Path to Subsidy Independence, Breakthrough Institute, April 2012, https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/uploads.thebreakthrough.org/articles/beyond-boom-and-bust-report-overview/Beyond_Boom_and_Bust.pdf, 18. 99.


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The Intelligence Trap: Revolutionise Your Thinking and Make Wiser Decisions by David Robson

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, cognitive bias, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, deliberate practice, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Flynn Effect, framing effect, fundamental attribution error, illegal immigration, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, knowledge economy, lone genius, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, obamacare, pattern recognition, price anchoring, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, theory of mind, traveling salesman, ultimatum game, Y2K, Yom Kippur War

See also Haimovitz, K. and Dweck, C.S. (2017), ‘The Origins of Children’s Growth and Fixed Mindsets: New Research and a New Proposal’, Child Development, 88(6), 1849–59. 33 Frank, R. (16 October 2013), ‘Billionare Sara Blakely Says Secret to Success Is Failure’, CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/16/billionaire-sara-blakely-says-secret-to-success-is-failure.html. 34 See, for instance, Paunesku, D., Walton, G.M., Romero, C., Smith, E.N., Yeager, D.S. and Dweck, C.S. (2015), ‘Mind-set Interventions Are a Scalable Treatment for Academic Underachievement’, Psychological Science, 26(6), 784?93. For further evidence of the power of interventions, see the following meta-analysis: Lazowski, R.A. and Hulleman, C.S. (2016), ‘Motivation Interventions in Education: A Meta-Analytic Review’, Review of Educational Research, 86(2), 602?40. 35 See, for instance, the following meta-analysis, which found a small but significant effect: Sisk, V.F., Burgoyne, A.P., Sun, J., Butler, J.L., Macnamara, B.N. (2018), ‘To What Extent and Under Which Circumstances Are Growth Mind-Sets Important to Academic Achievement? Two Meta-Analyses’, Psychological Science, in press, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797617739704.

., Schwarz, N. and Topolinski, S. (2017), ‘Make It Short and Easy: Username Complexity Determines Trustworthiness Above and Beyond Objective Reputation’, Frontiers in Psychology, 8, 2200. 11 Wu, W., Moreno, A. M., Tangen, J. M., & Reinhard, J. (2013), ‘Honeybees can discriminate between Monet and Picasso paintings’, Journal of Comparative Physiology A, 199(1), 45–55. Carlström, M., & Larsson, S. C. (2018). ‘Coffee consumption and reduced risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a systematic review with meta-analysis’, Nutrition Reviews, 76(6), 395–417. Olszewski, M., & Ortolano, R. (2011). ‘Knuckle cracking and hand osteoarthritis’, The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine, 24(2), 169–174. 12 Newman, E.J., Garry, M. and Bernstein, D.M., et al. (2012), ‘Nonprobative Words (or Photographs) Inflate Truthiness’, Psychonomic Bulletin and Review, 19(5), 969?74. 13 Weaver, K., Garcia, S.M., Schwarz, N. and Miller, D.T. (2007), ‘Inferring the Popularity of an Opinion from Its Familiarity: A Repetitive Voice Can Sound Like a Chorus’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92(5), 821–33. 14 Weisbuch, M. and Mackie, D. (2009), ‘False Fame, Perceptual Clarity, or Persuasion?

., Good, C. and Dweck, C.S. (2006), ‘Why Do Beliefs about Intelligence Influence Learning Success? A Social Cognitive Neuroscience Model’, Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, 1(2), 75?86. 27 Claro, S., Paunesku, D. and Dweck, C.S. (2016), ‘Growth Mindset Tempers the Effects of Poverty on Academic Achievement’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(31), 8664?8. 28 For evidence of the benefits of mindset, see the following meta-analysis, examining 113 studies: Burnette, J.L., O’Boyle, E.H., VanEpps, E.M., Pollack, J.M. and Finkel, E.J. (2013), ‘Mind-sets Matter: A Meta-Analytic Review of Implicit Theories and Self-regulation’, Psychological Bulletin, 139(3), 655?701. 29 Quoted in Roberts, R. and Kreuz, R. (2015), Becoming Fluent: How Cognitive Science Can Help Adults Learn a Foreign Language, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 26–7. 30 See, for example, Rustin, S. (10 May 2016), ‘New Test for “Growth Mindset”, the Theory That Anyone Who Tries Can Succeed’, Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/may/10/growth-mindset-research-uk-schools-sats. 31 Brummelman, E., Thomaes, S., Orobio de Castro, B., Overbeek, G. and Bushman, B.J. (2014), ‘ “That’s Not Just Beautiful ?


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Rethinking Narcissism: The Bad---And Surprising Good---About Feeling Special by Dr. Craig Malkin

Bernie Madoff, greed is good, helicopter parent, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Ronald Reagan, theory of mind

Advances in Developing Human Resources, 2011, vol. 13(1), pp. 69–84. Campbell, W. K., B. J. Hoffman, S. M. Campbell, and G. Marchisio. Narcissism in organizational contexts. Human Resource Management Review, 2011, vol. 21(4), pp. 268–84. DuBrin, A. J. Narcissism in the Workplace: Research, opinion, and practice. Edward Elgar, 2012. Grijalva, E., and D. A. Newman. Narcissism and Counterproductive Work Behavior (CWB): Meta-analysis and consideration of collectivist culture, Big Five personality, and narcissism’s facet structure. Applied Psychology, 2014, in press. Harvey, P., and M. J. Martinko. An empirical examination of the role of attributions in psychological entitlement and its outcomes. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 2009, vol. 30(4), pp. 459–76. Higgs, M. The good, the bad and the ugly: Leadership and narcissism.

Namie. The Bully at Work: What you can do to stop the hurt and reclaim your dignity on the job. Sourcebooks, 2009. Nevicka, B., A. H. De Hoogh, A. E. Van Vianen, B. Beersma, and D. McIlwain. All I need is a stage to shine: Narcissists’ leader emergence and performance. The Leadership Quarterly, 2011, vol. 22(5), pp. 910–25. O’Boyle Jr., E. H., D. R. Forsyth, G. C. Banks, and M. A. McDaniel. A meta-analysis of the dark triad and work behavior: A social exchange perspective. Journal of Applied Psychology, 2012, vol. 97(3), p. 557. Padilla, A., R. Hogan and R. B. Kaiser. The toxic triangle: Destructive leaders, susceptible followers, and conducive environments. The Leadership Quarterly, 2007, vol. 18(3), pp. 176–94. Penney, L. M., and P. E. Spector. Narcissism and counterproductive work behavior: Do bigger egos mean bigger problems?

Personality and Individual Differences, 2011, vol. 51(1), pp. 57–62. Panek, E. T., Y. Nardis, and S. Konrath. Mirror or megaphone?: How relationships between narcissism and social networking site use differ on Facebook and Twitter. Computers in Human Behavior, 2013, vol. 29(5), pp. 2004–12. Song, H., A. Zmyslinski-Seelig, J. Kim, A. Drent, A. Victor, K. Omori, and M. Allen. Does Facebook make you lonely?: A meta analysis. Computers in Human Behavior, 2014, vol. 36, pp. 446–52. Weiser, E. B. The functions of Internet use and their social and psychological consequences. CyberPsychology & Behavior, 2001, vol. 4(6), pp. 723–43. Wilson, R. E., S. D. Gosling, and L. T. Graham. A review of Facebook research in the social sciences. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 2012, vol. 7(3), pp. 203–20. 12. A Passionate Life: The Ultimate Gift of Healthy Narcissism Frimer, J.


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How Cycling Can Save the World by Peter Walker

active transport: walking or cycling, bike sharing scheme, Boris Johnson, car-free, correlation does not imply causation, Enrique Peñalosa, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kickstarter, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Journalism, New Urbanism, post-work, publication bias, the built environment, traffic fines, transit-oriented development, urban planning

CHAPTER 7 1 Michael Polhamus, “Bill Would Require Neon Clothes, Government ID for Cyclists,” Jackson Hole News and Guide, January 30, 2015, http://www.jhnewsandguide.com/jackson_hole_daily/local/bill-would-require-neon-clothes-government-id-for-cyclists/article_d53b9712-2e93-517d-9e33-8f13d693ba21.html. 2 Wes Johnson, “Missouri Bill Requires Bicyclists to Fly 15-Foot Flag on Country Roads,” Springfield News-Leader, January 14, 2016. 3 “School Pupils Encouraged to Wear Hi-Vis Vests in Road Safety Scheme,” Grimsby Telegraph, January 23, 2012, http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/school-pupils-encouraged-wear-hi-vis-vests-road/story-15010565-detail/story.html. 4 Chris Boardman, “Why I Didn’t Wear a Helmet on BBC Breakfast,” BritishCycling.org, November 3, 2014, https://www.britishcycling.org.uk/campaigning/article/20141103-campaigning-news-Boardman--Why-I-didn-t-wear-a-helmet-on-BBC-Breakfast-0. 5 Nick Hussey, “Why My Cycling Clothing Company Uses Models without Helmets,” The Guardian, February 4, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2016/feb/04/vulpine-bike-clothing-company-models-without-helmets-dont-hate-us. 6 Peter Jacobsen and Harry Rutter, “Cycling Safety,” in Pucher and Buehler, City Cycling, ch. 7. 7 “Helmets for Pedal Cyclists and for Users of Skateboards and Roller Skates,” European Committee for Standardization, 1997, http://www.mrtn.ch/pdf/en_1078.pdf. 8 R.G. Attewell, K. Glase, and M. McFadden, “Bicycle Helmet Efficacy: A Meta-Analysis,” Accident Analysis and Prevention 33 (2001). 9 Rune Elvik, “Publication bias and time-trend bias in meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy: A re-analysis of Attewell, Glase and McFadden,” Accident Analysis and Prevention 43 (2011):1245–51. 10 E-mail exchange with the author. 11 Davis, Death on the Streets. 12 1985 Durbin-Harvey report, commissioned by UK Department of Transport from two professors of statistics. 13 Ian Walker, “Drivers Overtaking Bicyclists: Objective Data on the Effects of Riding Position, Helmet Use, Vehicle Type and Apparent Gender,” Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007):417–25. 14 “Wearing a Helmet Puts Cyclists at Risk, Suggests Research,” University of Bath, September 11, 2016, http://www.bath.ac.uk/news/articles/archive/overtaking110906.html. 15 Tim Gamble and Ian Walker, “Wearing a Bicycle Helmet Can Increase Risk Taking and Sensation Seeking in Adults,” Psychological Science, 2016. 16 “Helmet Wearing Increases Risk Taking and Sensation Seeking,” University of Bath, January 25, 2016, http://www.bath.ac.uk/news/2016/01/25/helmet-wearing-risk-taking. 17 Fishman et al., “Barriers and Facilitators to Public Bicycle Scheme Use: A Qualitative Approach,” Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour 15, Vol. 6 (2012):686–98. 18 Interview with the author. 19 N.C.

NOTES INTRODUCTION 1 Department for Transport, National Travel Survey: England 2015, 2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/551437/national-travel-survey-2015.pdf. 2 Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Cycling in the Netherlands, 2009, http://www.fietsberaad.nl/library/repository/bestanden/CyclingintheNetherlands2009.pdf. 3 United Nations, “World’s Population Increasingly Urban with More Than Half Living in Urban Areas,” July 10, 2014, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html. CHAPTER 1 1 Royal College of Physicians, “National Review of Asthma Deaths,” 2015, https://www.rcplondon.ac.uk/projects/national-review-asthma-deaths. 2 Daniela Schmid and Michael F. Leitzmann, “Television Viewing and Time Spent Sedentary in Relation to Cancer Risk: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 106, Vol. 7 (2014), http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/106/7/dju098.full.pdf+html. 3 Interview with the author. 4 John Pucher and Ralph Buehler, “At the Frontiers of Cycling: Policy Innovations in the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany,” World Transport Policy and Practice (December 2007), https://ralphbu.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/frontiers.pdf. 5 Jeroen Johan de Hartog, Hanna Boogaard, Hans Nijland, and Gerard Hoek, “Do the Health Benefits of Cycling Outweigh the Risks?”


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Utopia for Realists: The Case for a Universal Basic Income, Open Borders, and a 15-Hour Workweek by Rutger Bregman

autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Branko Milanovic, cognitive dissonance, computer age, conceptual framework, credit crunch, David Graeber, Diane Coyle, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, full employment, George Gilder, George Santayana, happiness index / gross national happiness, Henry Ford's grandson gave labor union leader Walter Reuther a tour of the company’s new, automated factory…, income inequality, invention of gunpowder, James Watt: steam engine, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, low skilled workers, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, minimum wage unemployment, Mont Pelerin Society, Nathan Meyer Rothschild: antibiotics, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, precariat, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, stem cell, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, wage slave, War on Poverty, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, wikimedia commons, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey

A 2013 study estimated the costs of child poverty in the U.S. at as much as $500 billion a year. Kids who grow up poor end up with two years’ less educational attainment, work 450 fewer hours per year, and run three times the risk of all-round bad health than those raised in families that are well off. Investments in education won’t really help these kids, the researchers say.16 They have to get above the poverty line first. A recent meta-analysis of 201 studies on the effectiveness of financial education came to a similar conclusion: Such education makes almost no difference at all.17 This is not to say no one learns anything – poor people can come out wiser, for sure. But it’s not enough. “It’s like teaching a person to swim and then throwing them in a stormy sea,” laments Professor Shafir. Educating people certainly isn’t entirely pointless, but it can only go so far in helping them to manage their mental bandwidth, already taxed, as it is, by demands like the impossible bureaucratic mire of the welfare state.

One study showed that hospital interns make five times as many diagnostic errors when working excessively long weeks compared to normal workweeks. Christopher P. Landrigan et al., “Effect of Reducing Interns’ Work Hours on Serious Medical Errors in Intensive Care Units.” The New England Journal of Medicine (October 2004). http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa041406 There is also a mountain of research attesting that working too hard is bad for health. See the meta-analysis: Kate Sparks et al., “The Effects of Hours of Work on Health: A Meta-Analytic Review,” Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology (August 2011). http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2044-8325.1997.tb00656.x/abstract 42. Jon C. Messenger and Naj Ghosheh, “Work Sharing during the Great Recession” (International Labour Organization). http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_187627.pdf 43.

Daniel Patrick Moynihan, “Speech on Welfare Reform” (September 16, 1995) http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/politics/danielpatrickmoynihansspee.html 31. Beyond this, Nixon’s plan, once implemented, would have been difficult to repeal as it would have rapidly garnered widespread support. “New policies create new politics,” writes Steensland (p. 220). 32. Steensland, p. 226. 33. Steensland, p. x. 34. In a large meta-analysis of 93 European programs, no or negative effects were found in at least half. See: Frans den Butter and Emil Mihaylov, “Activerend arbeidsmarktbeleid is vaak niet effectief,” ESB (April 2008). http://personal.vu.nl/f.a.g.den.butter/activerendarbmarktbeleid2008.pdf 35. Stephen Kastoryano and Bas van der Klaauw, “Dynamic Evaluation of Job Search Assistance,” IZA Discussion Papers (June 15, 2011). http://www.roa.nl/seminars/pdf2012/BasvanderKlaauw.pdf 36.


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Good Calories, Bad Calories: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom on Diet, Weight Control, and Disease by Gary Taubes

Albert Einstein, California gold rush, cognitive dissonance, collaborative editing, Drosophila, Everything should be made as simple as possible, experimental subject, Gary Taubes, invention of agriculture, John Snow's cholera map, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, placebo effect, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Robert Gordon, selection bias, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, twin studies, unbiased observer, Upton Sinclair

One other method can be employed to judge the validity of the hypotheses that dietary fat or saturated fat causes heart disease, and that cholesterol-lowering diets prevent it. This is a technique known as meta-analysis, viewed as a kind of last epidemiological resort in these kinds of medical and public-health controversies: if the existing studies give ambiguous results, the true size of a benefit or harm may be assessed by pooling the data from all the studies in such a way as to gain what’s known as statistical power. Meta-analysis is controversial in its own right. Investigators can choose, for instance, which studies to include in their meta-analysis, either consciously or subconsciously, based on which ones are most likely to give them the desired result. For this reason, a collaboration of seventy-seven scientists from eleven countries founded the Cochrane Collaboration in 1993.

The founders, led by Iain Chalmers of Oxford University, believed that meta-analyses could be so easily biased by researchers’ prejudices that they needed a standardized methodology to minimize the influence of such prejudice, and they needed a venue that would allow for the publication of impartial reviews. The Cochrane Collaboration methodology makes it effectively impossible for researchers to influence a meta-analysis by the criteria they use to include or exclude studies. Cochrane Collaboration reviews must include all studies that fit a prespecified set of criteria, and they must exclude all that don’t. In 2001, the Cochrane Collaboration published a review of “reduced or modified dietary fat for preventing cardiovascular disease.” The authors combed the literature for all possibly relevant studies and identified twenty-seven that were performed with sufficient controls and rigor to be considered meaningful.*26 These trials encompassed some ten thousand subjects followed for an average of three years each.

Cholesterol, stroke, and Japan: Blackburn and Jacobs 1989. Framingham investigators provided: Anderson et al. 1987. Most striking result: Ibid. The NHLBI workshop: Jacobs et al. 1992. Footnote. Hulley et al. 1992. Rifkind’s interpretation: Interview, Basil Rifkind. Cf. Jacobs et al. 1992. “Questions should be pursued…”: Jacobs et al. 1992. Feynman’s lectures: Feynman 1967 (“…if your bias…” and “…absolutely sure…,” 147).83 Meta-analysis: Mann 1990 provides a good review. Cochrane Collaboration: Taubes 1996; the Cochrane Collaboration Web site (www.cochrane.org). “reduced or modified…”: Hooper et al. 2001. “A major lesson…”: Keys 1975. “The pooled effects suggest…”: Ebrahim et al. 2006. Evidence indeed suggested: Malmros 1950; Schornagel 1953; Vartiainen and Kanerva 1947. PART TWO: THE CARBOHYDRATE HYPOTHESIS Epigraph.


Growth: From Microorganisms to Megacities by Vaclav Smil

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, agricultural Revolution, air freight, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, colonial rule, complexity theory, coronavirus, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, endogenous growth, energy transition, epigenetics, happiness index / gross national happiness, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Hyperloop, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, Law of Accelerating Returns, longitudinal study, mandelbrot fractal, market bubble, mass immigration, McMansion, megacity, megastructure, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, old age dependency ratio, optical character recognition, out of africa, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, Productivity paradox, profit motive, purchasing power parity, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, Republic of Letters, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, technoutopianism, the market place, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, urban sprawl, Vilfredo Pareto, yield curve

Genetically modified soybeans, rapeseed (and cotton) had followed soon afterward, but the adoption of transgenic crops has encountered a great deal of consumer as well as regulatory resistance (particularly in the EU). As a result, there is still no large-scale cultivation of transgenic wheat or rice. But the opposition is not based on solid scientific foundations. Klümper and Qaim (2014) examined all principal factors that influence outcomes of genetically modified cropping and their meta-analysis provided robust evidence of benefits for producers in both affluent and low-income countries. On average, the adoption of transgenic crops has reduced pesticide use by 37% while it increased crop yields by 22% and profits by 68%, and yield gains were larger for insect-resistant than for herbicide-tolerant crops, and they have been higher in low-income countries. But there has been one worrisome trend.

Ectothermic exponents vary widely, 0.57–1 in lizards, 0.65–1.3 in jellyfish and comb jellies, and as much as 0.18–0.83 in benthic cnidarians. Killen et al. (2010) found the full range of intraspecific allometries in teleost fishes between 0.38 and 1.29. Boukal et al. (2014) confirmed a wide variability of the exponent within various taxa. Additional meta-analyses will confirm the findings just cited, but at least ever since White et al. (2007) published a meta-analysis of 127 interspecific allometric exponents there should have been no doubts about the absence of any universal metabolic allometry. The effect of body mass on metabolic rate is significantly heterogeneous and in general it is stronger for endotherms than for ectotherms, with observed mean exponents of 0.804 for ectotherms and 0.704 for endotherms. A range of exponents, rather than a single value, is thus the most satisfactory answer, and Shestopaloff (2016) developed a metabolic allometric scaling model that considers both cellular transportation costs and heat dissipation constraints and that is valid across the entire range, from torpid and hibernating animals to the species with the highest levels of metabolic activity.

The Germanic, Celtic, and Slavic populations of northern and eastern Europe were not taller than the Mediterranean populations for genetic reasons but because of their higher, and more egalitarian intakes of high-protein foodstuffs (milk, unlike meat, could not be traded easily and was consumed locally). Improved nutrition—above all the increased supply of high-quality animal protein in general and of dairy products in particular—and a reduced burden of childhood and adolescent diseases have clearly been the two key drivers of the modern growth of average stature. The effect of dairy products on stature is evident from national comparisons and it has been quantified by meta-analysis of modern controlled trials (de Beer 2012). The most likely result of dairy product supplementation is 0.4 cm of additional growth per year per 245 mL (US cup is about 237 mL) of daily intake. The nationwide effect is clearly seen by diverging US and Dutch height trends. American milk consumption was stable during the first half of the 20th century and steadily declined afterwards, while Dutch consumption was increasing until the 1960s and, despite its subsequent decline, is still above the US level; Dutch males, smaller than Americans before WWII, surpassed their American peers after 1950.


The Last Best Cure: My Quest to Awaken the Healing Parts of My Brain and Get Back My Body, My Joy, a Nd My Life by Donna Jackson Nakazawa

back-to-the-land, epigenetics, index card, longitudinal study, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, place-making, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, stem cell

Life may be very hard, but one just doesn’t seem to feel the pain of life quite so much. A few days earlier I had a conversation with Srijan Sen, MD, PhD, assistant professor of psychiatry at the University of Michigan Medical School, who recently analyzed over fifty studies to better understand the relationship between seratonin gene variants and increased or decreased risk of depression and illness as adults. “His meta-analysis showed that the orchid gene variant is correlated with higher rates of depression,” I explain to Rowland-Seymour. “But what’s really intriguing is that the orchid gene is more likely to be correlated with depression in adults when stressful circumstances occurred in childhood rather than when severe stress hits once they’re already adults.” The orchid gene, Sen explained to me, plays a far more important role in how well we moderate stress when we are young than it does in how well we moderate stress when we are grown-ups.

A few days earlier I had a conversation with Srijan Sen, MD, PhD: In this study, Srijan Sen, MD, PhD, assistant professor of psychiatry at the University of Michigan Medical School, and his colleagues examined fifty-four studies done between 2001 and 2010 looking at 41,000 individuals—the largest analysis ever done of the relationship between individuals’ serotonin genetic make-up and how well they were able to bounce back from adversity. Karg K, Burmeister M, Shedden K, et al. The serotonin transporter promoter variant (5-HTTLPR), stress, and depression meta-analysis revisited: Evidence of genetic moderation. Arch Gen Psych. 2011 May;68(5):444–54. In individuals with the short-short gene variant: Hariri AR, Mattay VS, Tessitore A, et al. Serotonin transporter genetic variation and the response of the human amygdala. Science. 2002 Jul 19;297(5580):400–403. We already know that children with a history of ACEs: Aguilera M, Arias B, Wichers M, et al. Early adversity and 5-HTT/BDNF genes: New evidence of gene-environment interactions on depressive symptoms in a general population.

Rheumatol Int. 2009 Oct;29(12):1417–21. and improves allergy symptoms: Chukumnerd P, Hatthakit U, Chuaprapaisilp A. The experience of persons with allergic respiratory symptoms: Practicing yoga as a self-healing modality. Holist Nurs Pract. 2011 Mar–Apr;25(2):63–70. Cancer patients who practice yoga report: Lin KY, Hu YT, Chang KJ,Lin HF, et al. Effects of yoga on psychological health, quality of life, and physical health of patients with cancer: A meta-analysis. Evid Based Complement Alternat Med. 2011;2011:659876. Epub 2011 Mar 9. And the thing that makes the brain decide one way or the other: Butler D, Moseley L. Explain pain (Adelaide, South Australia: Noigroup Publications, 2003). In this book, Butler and Moseley discuss new findings that our level of perceived pain is based on how much the brain perceives us to be under threat. Read more on this on their blogspot: http://explainpain.blogspot.com/2007_09_23_archive.html (accessed March 28, 2012).


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The Cancer Chronicles: Unlocking Medicine's Deepest Mystery by George Johnson

Atul Gawande, Cepheid variable, Columbine, dark matter, discovery of DNA, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, Gary Taubes, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, Isaac Newton, Magellanic Cloud, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, Murray Gell-Mann, phenotype, profit motive, stem cell

[http://www.aacr.org/home/public-media.aspx] CHAPTER 2 Nancy’s Story 1. two-thirds of cancer cases are preventable: See, for example, World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research, Food, Nutrition, Physical Activity, and the Prevention of Cancer: A Global Perspective (Washington, DC: AICR, 2007), xxv. [http://www.dietandcancerreport.org] 2. the argument is weak at best: Miguel A. Sanjoaquin et al., “Folate Intake and Colorectal Cancer Risk: A Meta-analytical Approach,” International Journal of Cancer 113, no. 5 (February 20, 2005): 825–28 [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15499620]; Susanna C. Larsson, Edward Giovannucci, and Alicja Wolk, “Folate and Risk of Breast Cancer: A Meta-analysis,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 99, no. 1 (January 3, 2007): 64–76 [http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/99/1/64.abstract]; and Jane C. Figueiredo et al., “Folic Acid and Risk of Prostate Cancer: Results from a Randomized Clinical Trial,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 101, no. 6 (March 18, 2009): 432–35. [http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/101/6/432.short] 3. folic acid … can increase cancer risk: See, for example, Figueiredo et al., “Folic Acid and Risk of Prostate Cancer”; and Marta Ebbing et al., “Cancer Incidence and Mortality After Treatment with Folic Acid and Vitamin B12,” JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association 302, no. 19 (November 18, 2009): 2119–26.

Ames, “Dietary Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens,” Science 221, no. 4617 (September 23, 1983): 1256–64. [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6351251] 23. eating a lot of red meat: The calculation is for a fifty-year-old. See Teresa Norat et al., “Meat, Fish, and Colorectal Cancer Risk,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 97, no. 12 (June 15, 2005): 906–16; [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15956652] and Doris S. M. Chan et al., “Red and Processed Meat and Colorectal Cancer Incidence: Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies,” PLOS ONE 6, no. 6 (June 6, 2011). [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3108955] 24. from 1.28 percent to 1.7 percent: Norat et al., “Meat, Fish, and Colorectal Cancer Risk.” 25. fish, fish oils, and colon cancer prevention: For evidence that eating fish discourages cancer by encouraging apoptosis and impeding cellular proliferation, see Youngmi Cho et al., “A Chemoprotective Fish Oil- and Pectin-Containing Diet Temporally Alters Gene Expression Profiles in Exfoliated Rat Colonocytes Throughout Oncogenesis,” Journal of Nutrition 141, no. 6 (June 1, 2011): 1029–35.

Kvinnsland, “Prospective Study of Height, Body Mass Index and Risk of Breast Cancer,” Acta Oncologica 31, no. 2 (1992): 195–200. [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1622634] 41. oral contraceptives may slightly raise the odds: “Oral Contraceptives and Cancer Risk,” National Cancer Institute, reviewed March 21, 2012. 42. Alcohol … with digestive cancers: The evidence for esophageal, liver, and other cancers is examined in Vincenzo Bagnardi et al., “Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Cancer: A Meta-Analysis,” Alcohol Research and Health: The Journal of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism 25, no. 4 (2001): 263–70. [http://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/arh25-4/263-270.htm] 43. the risk from hepatitis viruses: Heather M. Colvin and Abigail E. Mitchell, eds., Hepatitis and Liver Cancer (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2010), 29–30. [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?


Blueprint: The Evolutionary Origins of a Good Society by Nicholas A. Christakis

agricultural Revolution, Alfred Russel Wallace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, assortative mating, Cass Sunstein, crowdsourcing, David Attenborough, different worldview, disruptive innovation, double helix, epigenetics, experimental economics, experimental subject, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, invention of writing, iterative process, job satisfaction, Joi Ito, joint-stock company, land tenure, Laplace demon, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, out of africa, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, placebo effect, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, replication crisis, Rubik’s Cube, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, social web, stem cell, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, twin studies, ultimatum game, zero-sum game

Buss, “Sex Differences in Human Mate Preferences: Evolutionary Hypotheses Testing in 37 Cultures,” Behavioral and Brain Sciences 12 (1989): 1–49. 26. E. Turkheimer, “Three Laws of Behavior Genetics and What They Mean,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 9 (2000): 160–164. 27. T. J. C. Polderman et al., “Meta-Analysis of the Heritability of Human Traits Based on Fifty Years of Twin Studies,” Nature Genetics 47 (2015): 702–729. 28. J. Wu, H. Xiao, H. Sun, L. Zou, and L. Q. Zhu, “Role of Dopamine Receptors in ADHD: A Systematic Meta-Analysis,” Molecular Neurobiology 45 (2012): 605–620; C. Chen, M. Burton, E. Greenberger, and J. Dmitrieva, “Population Migration and the Variation of Dopamine D4 Receptor (DRD4) Allele Frequencies Around the Globe,” Evolution and Human Behavior 20 (1999): 309–324; R. P. Ebstein et al., “Dopamine D4 Receptor (D4DR) Exon III Polymorphism Associated with the Human Personality Trait of Novelty Seeking,” Nature Genetics 12 (1996): 78–80; J.

., “Dopamine D4 Receptor (D4DR) Exon III Polymorphism Associated with the Human Personality Trait of Novelty Seeking,” Nature Genetics 12 (1996): 78–80; J. Benjamin, L. Li, C. Patterson, B. D. Greenberg, D. L. Murphy, and D. H. Hamer, “Population and Familial Association Between the D4 Dopamine Receptor Gene and Measures of Novelty Seeking,” Nature Genetics 12 (1996): 81–84; M. R. Munafo, B. Yalcin, S. A. Willis-Owen, and J. Flint, “Association of the Dopamine D4 Receptor (DRD4) Gene and Approach-Related Personality Traits: Meta-Analysis and New Data,” Biological Psychiatry 63 (2008): 197–206. 29. See, for example, J. N. Rosenquist, S. F. Lehrer, A. J. O’Malley, A. M. Zaslavsky, J. W. Smoller, and N. A. Christakis, “Cohort of Birth Modifies the Association Between FTO Genotype and BMI,” PNAS: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (2015): 354–359. 30. Typically, variation between animals or species reflects changes in the receptors for the hormone or transmitter rather than changes in the level or structure of the hormone.

Elias, “HLA and Mate Choice in Humans,” American Journal of Human Genetics 61 (1997): 497–504; P. W. Hedrick and F. L. Black, “HLA and Mate Selection: No Evidence in South Amerindians,” American Journal of Human Genetics 61 (1997): 505–511. 61. T. Bereczkei, P. Gyuris, and G. E. Weiseld, “Sexual Imprinting in Human Mate Choice,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B 271 (2004): 1129–1134. 62. T. J. C. Polderman et al., “Meta-Analysis of the Heritability of Human Traits Based on Fifty Years of Twin Studies,” Nature Genetics 47 (2015): 702–709. 63. R. S. Herz and M. Inzlicht, “Sex Differences in Response to Physical and Social Factors Involved in Human Mate Selection: The Importance of Smell for Women,” Evolution and Human Behavior 23 (2002): 359–364. 64. R. McDermott, D. Tingley, and P. K. Hatemi, “Assortative Mating on Ideology Could Operate Through Olfactory Cues,” American Journal of Political Science 58 (2014): 997–1005. 65.


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Evil by Design: Interaction Design to Lead Us Into Temptation by Chris Nodder

4chan, affirmative action, Amazon Mechanical Turk, cognitive dissonance, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, game design, haute couture, jimmy wales, Jony Ive, Kickstarter, late fees, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Netflix Prize, Nick Leeson, Occupy movement, pets.com, price anchoring, recommendation engine, Rory Sutherland, Silicon Valley, Stanford prison experiment, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, Tim Cook: Apple, trickle-down economics, upwardly mobile

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 16.2 (1970): 259–264. How we rate and who we date: Kenneth C. Herbst, Lowell Gaertner, and Chester A. Insko. “My head says yes but my heart says no: Cognitive and affective attraction as a function of similarity to the ideal self.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 84.6 (2003): 1206. Dating meta-analysis: Alan Feingold. “Matching for attractiveness in romantic partners and same-sex friends: A meta-analysis and theoretical critique.” Psychological Bulletin 104.2 (1988): 226. OkCupid statistics on male reaction to beauty, described as game theory: Christian Rudder. “The mathematics of beauty.” OKTrends (blog.okcupid.com). January 10, 2011. Retrieved March 2013. Frame your message as a question Dan Morales State Attorney General story: Sheila Kaplan.

“A Case for Pseudonyms.” Electronic Frontier Foundation (eff.org). July 19, 2011. Retrieved January 2013. Real-time chats are more balanced: Antonios Garas, David Garcia, Marcin Skowron, and Frank Schweitzer. “Emotional persistence in online chatting communities.”Scientific Reports 2.402 (2012). Situational norms: Tom Postmes and Russell Spears. “Deindividuation and antinormative behavior: A meta-analysis.” Psychological Bulletin 123.3 (1998): 238–259. Give people permission Milgram’s experiment: Stanley Milgram. “Behavioral Study of Obedience.” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 67.4 (1963): 371–378. Milgram quotes: Stanley Milgram. Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View. New York: HarperCollins, 1974. p. 6. Not a one-off event: Thomas Blass. “The Milgram paradigm after 35 years: Some things we now know about obedience to authority.”


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Walkable City: How Downtown Can Save America, One Step at a Time by Jeff Speck

A Pattern Language, active transport: walking or cycling, car-free, carbon footprint, congestion charging, David Brooks, edge city, Edward Glaeser, Enrique Peñalosa, food miles, Frank Gehry, Guggenheim Bilbao, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, peak oil, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Florida, skinny streets, smart cities, starchitect, Stewart Brand, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, transit-oriented development, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, white picket fence, young professional, zero-sum game, Zipcar

We talked about this phenomenon at length in Suburban Nation in 2000, and the seminal text, The Elephant in the Bedroom: Automobile Dependence and Denial, was published by Hart and Spivak in 1993. For this reason, I will not take the time here to address its causes, which are multifold and fascinating. Since these books were published, however, there have been additional reports, all essentially confirming what we knew then. In 2004, a meta-analysis of dozens of previous studies found that “on average, a 10 percent increase in lane miles induces an immediate 4 percent increase in vehicle miles traveled, which climbs to 10 percent—the entire new capacity—in a few years.”14 The most comprehensive effort remains the one completed in 1998 by the Surface Transportation Policy Project, which looked at fully seventy different metropolitan areas over fifteen years.

“The Return of the Two-Way Street.” governing.org, December 2009. El Nasser, Haya. “In Many Neighborhoods, Kids Are Only a Memory.” USA Today, June 3, 2011. Erlanger, Steven, and Maïa de la Baume. “French Ideal of Bicycle-Sharing Meets Reality.” The New York Times, October 30, 2009. Eversley, Melanie. “Many Cities Changing One-Way Streets Back.” USA Today, December 20, 2006. Ewing, Reid, and Robert Cervero. “Travel and the Built Environment: A Meta-Analysis.” Journal of the American Planning Association 76, no. 3 (2010): 11. Ewing, Reid, and Eric Dumbaugh. “The Built Environment and Traffic Safety: A Review of Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Planning Literature 23, no. 4 (2009): 347–67. Fallows, James. “Fifty-Nine and a Half Minutes of Brilliance, Thirty Seconds of Hauteur.” theatlantic.com, July 3, 2009. Farmer, Molly. “South Jordan Mom Cited for Neglect for Allowing Child to Walk to School.”

They found that “those living in more walkable neighborhoods trusted their neighbors more; participated in community projects, clubs and volunteering more; and described television as their major form of entertainment less than survey participants living in less walkable neighborhoods” (Rogers et al., “Examining Walkability,” 201–203). ●The Blue Zones, 220. It’s worth noting that Lesson Four is “buy a case of high-quality red wine,” which certainly adds to the book’s appeal (240). ■The Blue Zones, 223. According to The New York Times, “a recent meta-analysis of studies about exercise and mortality showed that, in general, a sedentary person’s risk of dying prematurely from any cause plummeted by nearly 20 percent if he or she began brisk walking (or the equivalent) for 30 minutes five times a week” (Gretchen Reynolds, “What’s the Single Best Exercise?”). ●In Carjacked, Catherine Lutz and Anne Lutz Fernandez suggest that “10 to 25 percent of the annual military budget should be allocated to the line item of oil resource control” (96).


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Inferior: How Science Got Women Wrong-And the New Research That's Rewriting the Story by Angela Saini

Albert Einstein, demographic transition, Drosophila, feminist movement, gender pay gap, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, out of africa, place-making, scientific mainstream, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, women in the workforce

American Journal of Human Biology 14, no. 3 (2002): 356–63. Lawn, Joy E., et al. “Beyond Newborn Survival: The World You Are Born into Determines Your Risk of Disability-Free Survival.” Pediatric Research 74, no. S1 (2013): 1–3. Peacock, Janet L., et al. “Neonatal and Infant Outcome in Boys and Girls Born Very Prematurely.” Pediatric Research 71, no. 3 (2012): 305–10 Buckberry, Sam, et al. “Integrative Transcriptome Meta-Analysis Reveals Widespread Sex-Biased Gene Expression at the Human Fetal–Maternal Interface.” Molecular Human Reproduction 20, no. 8 (2014): 810–19. Austad, Steven N. “Why Women Live Longer Than Men: Sex Differences in Longevity.” Gender Medicine 3, no. 2 (2006): 79–92. Austad, Steven N., and Andrzej Bartke. “Sex Differences in Longevity and in Responses to Anti-Aging Interventions: A Mini-Review.”

Published online July 27, 2016. Jordan-Young, Rebecca M. Brain Storm: The Flaws in the Science of Sex Differences. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2010. Davis, Shannon N., and Barbara J. Risman. “Feminists Wrestle with Testosterone: Hormones, Socialization and Cultural Interactionism as Predictors of Women’s Gendered Selves.” Social Science Research 49 (2015): 110–25. Ruigroka, Amber N. V., et al. “A Meta-Analysis of Sex Differences in Human Brain Structure.” Neuroscience and Biobehavioral Reviews 39 (2014): 34–50. Chapter 4: The Missing Five Ounces of the Female Brain Gardener, Helen H. Facts and Fictions of Life, Boston: Arena, 1893. ——. “Sex and Brain Weight.” Letter to the editor. Popular Science Monthly 31, no. 10 (June 1887): 266–68. Hammond, William. “Men’s and Women’s Brains.” Letter to the editor.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 111, no. 6 (2014). Joel, Daphna, and Ricardo Tarrasch. “On the Mis-Presentation and Misinterpretation of Gender-Related Data: The Case of Ingalhalikar’s Human Connectome Study.” PNAS 111, no. 6 (February 11, 2014), https://www.pnas.org/content/111/6/E637.full?keytype2=tf_ipsecsha&ijkey=4183bcb77bcb8782c9324a9abf711223af7bbe9f. Tan, Anh, et al. “The Human Hippocampus Is Not Sexually-Dimorphic: Meta-Analysis of Structural MRI Volumes.” NeuroImage 124 (2016): 350–66. Cahill, Larry. “Equal ≠ The Same: Sex Differences in the Human Brain.” Cerebrum, April 2014. ——. “A Half-Truth Is a Whole Lie: On the Necessity of Investigating Sex Influences on the Brain.” Endocrinology 153, no. 6 (2012): 2541–43. Short, Nigel. “Vive la Différence.” New in Chess, February 2015. https://en.chessbase.com/post/vive-la-diffrence-the-full-story.


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Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Make a Difference by William MacAskill

barriers to entry, basic income, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Cal Newport, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, effective altruism, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, experimental subject, follow your passion, food miles, immigration reform, income inequality, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, job automation, job satisfaction, Lean Startup, M-Pesa, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nate Silver, Peter Singer: altruism, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, universal basic income, women in the workforce

(For a sanity check, remember that even the very poorest people in the world live on sixty cents per day; if it cost ten dollars to save a life, then we’d have to suppose that they or their family members couldn’t save up for a few weeks, or take out a loan, in order to pay for the lifesaving product.) Claims of a program’s effectiveness are more reliable when grounded in academic studies. If there’s been a meta-analysis—a study of the studies—that’s even better. Even then, there can be cause for concern because the program that a charity implements might be subtly different from the programs that were studied in the meta-analysis. Knowing that, it’s even better if the charity has done its own independently audited or peer-reviewed randomized controlled evaluations of its programs. Robustness of evidence is very important for the simple reason that many programs don’t work, and it’s hard to distinguish the programs that don’t work from the programs that do.

; Maria Kuecken and Anne-Marie Valfort, “When Do Textbooks Matter for Achievement?” Economic Letters, 2013; Glewwe and Kremer, “Schools, Teachers, and Education Outcomes in Developing Countries,” in Eric A. Hanushek and F. Welch (eds.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, vol. 2, (New York: Elsevier, 2006), 945–1017; Patrick McEwan, “Improving Learning in Primary Schools of Developing Countries: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Experiments,” unpublished paper. The American Cancer Society spends: American Cancer Society, “Stewardship Report,” 2013, 44, http://www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@corporatecommunications/documents/document/acspc-041227.pdf. The ALS Association (of ice-bucket-challenge fame) spends: ALS Association, “Annual Report,” 2014, 3, http://www.alsa.org/assets/pdfs/annual_report_fy2014.pdf.


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In Pursuit of Memory: The Fight Against Alzheimer's by Joseph Jebelli

Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Berlin Wall, double helix, epigenetics, global pandemic, Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, lateral thinking, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, phenotype, placebo effect, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Skype, stem cell, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

., ‘World Alzheimer’s Report 2016’. 2. At the time of writing, Alzheimer’s overtook heart disease in England and Wales; it is now the leading cause of death. Office for National Statistics, Statistical Bulletin. 3. Reagan, Handwritten letter courtesy of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Library. 4. Mukherjee, The Emperor of All Maladies, p.39. 5. Lambert, Ibrahim-Verbaas, et al., ‘Meta-analysis of 74,046 individuals identifies 11 new susceptibility loci for Alzheimer’s disease’. 6. Fraser, Consulting report, July 2015. Chapter 1: The Psychiatrist with a Microscope 1. World Health Organization (WHO), ‘Dementia: Fact Sheet’. 2. Deuteronomy 28:28. 3. Jameson, Essays on the Changes of the Human Body, at its Different Ages, p.138. 4. Cicero, How to Grow Old, p.77. 5. Galen, De symptomatum differentiis liber, in K.

., Sunada, Y.,… Inoue, H., ‘Modeling Alzheimer’s disease with iPSCs reveals stress phenotypes associated with intracellular Abeta and differential drug responsiveness’, Cell Stem Cell, 12 (4), 2013, 487–96 Kuhn, T. S., The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press, 2012 Lambert, J. C., Ibrahim-Verbaas, C. A., Harold, D., Naj, A. C., Sims, R., Bellenguez, C.,… Amouyel, P., ‘Meta-analysis of 74,046 individuals identifies 11 new susceptibility loci for Alzheimer’s disease’, Nature Genetics, 45 (12), 2013, 1452–8 Lane, N., Power, Sex, Suicide: Mitochondria and the Meaning of Life, Oxford University Press, 2006 Lapillonne, H., Kobari, L., Mazurier, C., Tropel, P., Giarratana, M. C., Zanella-Cleon, I.,… Douay, L., ‘Red blood cell generation from human induced pluripotent stem cells: perspectives for transfusion medicine’, Haematologica, 95 (10), 2010, 1651–9 Learoyd, P., ‘The history of blood transfusion prior to the 20th century’, Transfusion Medicine, 22 (5), 2012, 308–14 LeDoux, J., Synaptic Self: How Our Brains Become Who We Are, Penguin, 2003 Lee, M., Bard, F., Johnson-Wood, K., Lee, C., Hu, K., Griffith, S.

., ‘Serum SNTF increases in concussed professional ice hockey players and relates to the severity of postconcussion symptoms’, Journal of Neurotrauma, 32 (17), 2015, 1294–300 Singh, B., Parsaik, A. K., Mielke, M. M., Erwin, P. J., Knopman, D. S., Petersen, R. C., Roberts, R. O., ‘Association of Mediterranean diet with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis’, Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease, 39 (2), 2014, 271–82 Sinha, M., Jang, Y. C., Oh, J., Khong, D., Wu, E. Y., Manohar, R.,… Wagers, A. J., ‘Restoring systemic GDF11 levels reverses age-related dysfunction in mouse skeletal muscle’, Science, 344 (6184), 2014, 649–52 Small, G. W., Ercoli, L. M., Silverman, D. H., Huang, S. C., Komo, S., Bookheimer, S. Y.,… Phelps, M. E., ‘Cerebral metabolic and cognitive decline in persons at genetic risk for Alzheimer’s disease’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 97 (11), 2000, 6037–42 Smiley, J., The Sagas of the Icelanders, Penguin, 2005 Snowdon, D., Aging with Grace: The Nun Study and the Science of Old Age.


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Extreme Teams: Why Pixar, Netflix, AirBnB, and Other Cutting-Edge Companies Succeed Where Most Fail by Robert Bruce Shaw, James Foster, Brilliance Audio

Airbnb, augmented reality, call centre, cloud computing, deliberate practice, Elon Musk, future of work, inventory management, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, Jony Ive, loose coupling, meta analysis, meta-analysis, nuclear winter, Paul Graham, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, performance metric, Peter Thiel, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, Tony Hsieh

Fortune, March 8, 2013. 36Ian Parker, “How an Industrial Designer Became Apple’s Greatest Product,” February 23, 2015. 37Jay Yarow, “Jony Ive: This Is the Most Important Thing I Learned from Steve Jobs,” Business Insider, October 10, 2014. 38Robert Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001). 39There is a great deal of research on the impact of social cohesion on performance. See D. J. Beal et al., “Cohesion and Performance in Groups: A Meta-Analytic Clarification of Construct Relation,” Journal of Applied Psychology 88 (2003), 989–1004; S. M. Gully, D. J. Devine, and D. J. Whitney, “A Meta-Analysis of Cohesion and Performance: Effects of Level of Analysis and Task Interdependence,” Small Group Research 26 (1995): 497–520; M. A. Hogg, The Social Psychology of Group Cohesiveness (New York: New York University Press, 1993). 40Dora L. Costa and Matthew E. Kahn, Heroes and Cowards: The Social Forces of War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008). 41An important caveat: The authors found the camaraderie exerted this level of influence only when the soldiers saw others in their troop as similar to themselves—in their place of birth, ethnicity, social standing, and age.

The Dark Side to Network Density,” European Management Journal 32 (2014), 703–11, www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02632373/32/5. 59Edward O. Welles, “Lost in Patagonia: Yvon Chouinard’s Ambitious Social Mission,” Inc., August 1, 1992. 60Adam Waytz, “The Limits of Empathy,” Harvard Business Review January-February (2016). 61Rob Cross, Reb Rebele, and Adam Grant, “Collaborative Overload,” Harvard Business Review, January-February (2016); Radostina K. Purvanova and John P. Muros, “Gender Differences in Burnout: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of Vocational Behavior 77 (2010), 168–85. Madeline E. Heilman and Julie J. Chen, “Same Behavior, Different Consequences: Reactions to Men’s and Women’s Altruistic Citizenship Behavior,” Journal of Applied Psychology 90 (2005), 431–41. 62The quote is from Adam Grant and Sheryl Sandberg, “Madam C.E.O., Get Me a Coffee,” New York Times, February 16, 2016. 63Barry Johnson, Polarity Management, HRD PRess; 2014. 64Robert Bruce Shaw interview. 65Ed Catmull, CEO of Pixar, notes the downside of moving too quickly on underperformers on those who remain: “It makes them think, ‘oh, if I screw up, they’re going to remove me.’

Also see Dick Richards, “At Zappos, Culture Pays,” Strategy and Business 60 (2010). 8As suggested in this chapter, fit is essential in sustaining a firm’s cultural attributes. That said, fit is also important in the satisfaction of those who work in a company or group. Research indicates an employee’s fit with a firm’s culture is a strong predictor of organizational commitment, job satisfaction, and retention. See Amy L. Kristof-Brown and Erin C. Johnson, “Consequences of Individuals’ Fit at Work: A Meta-Analysis of Person-Job, Person-Organization, Person-Group and Person-Supervisor Fit,” Personnel Psychology 58 (2005), 281–342. 9Patagonia’s founder notes, “Not everyone wants to change the world, but we want a company to feel like home for those who do. Employees who are drawn to Chouinard Equipment, and later to Patagonia, either shared those values or did not mind working among those who held them.”


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Busy by Tony Crabbe

airport security, British Empire, business process, cognitive dissonance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, fear of failure, Frederick Winslow Taylor, haute cuisine, informal economy, inventory management, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, knowledge worker, Lao Tzu, loss aversion, low cost airline, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, placebo effect, Richard Feynman, Rubik’s Cube, Saturday Night Live, science of happiness, Shai Danziger, Thorstein Veblen, Tim Cook: Apple

Higgins suggested that each set was driven by different forms of regulation, which he called a prevention focus and promotion focus, respectively. A prevention focus is all about avoiding negative outcomes, and promotion focus is all about positive outcomes: striving to achieve goals that are important to us. In 2012, researchers at Michigan State University carried out a thorough review of all the studies into self-regulation.13 Using a clever statistical technique called meta-analysis, they analyzed studies involving over 25,000 people. Their interest lay in the relationship between regulatory focus and performance. What they found was that a promotion focus was strongly related to task and job performance. It was also positively related to other good things like openness, innovation, helpfulness, job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Prevention, on the other hand, was not related to job performance: in other words, trying to stop bad things from happening does not improve performance.

Johns, “Bored Mondays and Focused Afternoons: The Rhythm of Attention and Online Activity in the Workplace,” Proceedings of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (Toronto, Canada, 2014), 3025–34. 4. W. Hofmann, R. F. Baumeister, G. Förster, and K. D. Vohs, “Everyday Temptations: An Experience Sampling Study of Desire, Conflict, and Self-Control,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 102, no. 6 (2012): 1318–35. 5. D. T. de Ridder, G. Lensvelt-Mulders, C. Finkenauer, F. M. Stok, and R. F. Baumeister, “Taking Stock of Self-Control: A Meta-Analysis of How Trait Self-Control Relates to a Wide Range of Behaviors,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 16, no. 1 (2012): 76–99. 6. Brian Tracy, Eat That Frog!: 21 Great Ways to Stop Procrastinating and Get More Done in Less Time (San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc., 2007). 7. Brian Wansink, Mindless Eating: Why We Eat More Than We Think (New York: Bantam, 2006). 8. Teresa Amabile and Steven Kramer, The Progress Principle: Using Small Wins to Ignite Joy, Engagement, and Creativity at Work (Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review Press, 2011). 9.

Amy Arnsten cited in David Rock, Your Brain at Work: Strategies for Overcoming Distraction, Regaining Focus, and Working Smarter All Day Long (New York: HarperBusiness, 2009). 12. Edward Tory Higgins, “Beyond Pleasure and Pain,” American Psychologist 52, no. 12 (December 1997): 1280–1300. 13. K. Lanaj, C. H. Chang, and R. E. Johnson, “Regulatory Focus and Work-Related Outcomes: A Review and Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 138, no. 5 (September 2012): 998–1034. 14. Steve Peters, The Chimp Paradox: The Mind Management Program to Help You Achieve Success, Confidence, and Happiness (New York: Jeremy P. Tarcher/Penguin, 2011). 15. James Gross, “Emotion Regulation: Affective, Cognitive, and Social Consequences,” Psychophysiology 39, no. 3 (May 2002): 281–91. 16. David Rock, Your Brain at Work: Strategies for Overcoming Distraction, Regaining Focus, and Working Smarter All Day Long (New York: HarperBusiness, 2009). 17.


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I Think You'll Find It's a Bit More Complicated Than That by Ben Goldacre

call centre, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, Desert Island Discs, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, Firefox, Flynn Effect, jimmy wales, John Snow's cholera map, Loebner Prize, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral panic, placebo effect, publication bias, selection bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Simon Singh, statistical model, stem cell, the scientific method, Turing test, WikiLeaks

This breaks down into such objectives as: improving the health of drug users, by providing clean drugs in measured doses under medical supervision; reducing drug-related crime by providing users with free legal opiates, thus reducing their need to steal to fund illicit heroin; improving the social situation of drug users (family relationships, finances, employment, housing and so on); persuading users to reduce their daily dose and ultimately take steps towards abstinence. This is in many ways an updated version of Rolleston’s rationale from 1926. However, the policy of prescribing methadone may be criticised from many different angles, and to the best of my knowledge these criticisms have never been comprehensively considered in one article. Certainly there is no convenient meta-analysis of methadone programmes. I shall consider each criticism in detail, and later compare the use of methadone to the maintenance prescription of heroin, which still continues on a small scale in the UK, and has recently been reassessed in Switzerland and Australia. Firstly, it is important to recognise that methadone is not a pleasant drug to take, causing nausea and vomiting, weight gain, profuse sweating, dysphoria and tooth decay.

It’s not a perfect study – I don’t like subgroup analyses for a start, and it only followed up participants for seven days – but it’s not alone. An earlier study from 2009 randomly assigned a hundred students either to a control group or to a couple of forms of imagery, picturing themselves choosing a healthy snack over an unhealthy one. The imagery group went on to have more healthy snacks. Meanwhile, a meta-analysis from 2006 collectively analyses the results of ninety-four studies and finds that ‘implementation intentions’ (‘If I am in situation X, I will do Y’) had a positive effect overall on goal achievement. So there’s probably something there, and this research tells us some interesting things about science. Firstly, I think this kind of research is useful. Rupert Sheldrake is the researcher who claims dogs can sense their owner is coming home before they arrive.

: http://www.badscience.net/2009/08/check-me-out-i-bought-some-posh-chocolate-im-political/ two review papers: http://www.food.gov.uk/news/newsarchive/2009/jul/organic in terms of composition: http://www.food.gov.uk/multimedia/pdfs/organicreviewappendices.pdf or health benefits: http://www.food.gov.uk/multimedia/pdfs/organicreviewreport.pdf blanket right of reply: http://news.google.co.uk/news?ned=uk&hl=en&ncl=d0-fIEkn R_72tGMiU0uORy7OgGBTM&cf=all Don’t talk about that: http://www.badscience.net/2007/04/this-ageing-breadhead-guy-is-totally-angry-with-me/ pharmaceutical companies before it: http://www.badscience.net/2008/04/cliff-richard-gloria-hunniford-carole-caplin-the-60bn-food-supplement-industry-and-the-quantum-xrroid-dude-refute-a-cochrane-meta-analysis/ example from its press release: http://www.soilassociation.org/News/NewsItem/tabid/91/smid/463/ArticleID/97/reftab/57/t/Soil-Association-response-to-the-Food-Standards-Agency-s-Organic-Review/Default.aspx www.qlif.org: http://www.qlif.org/ list of 120 papers: http://orgprints.org/view/projects/eu_qlif.html immune parameters in rat: http://orgprints.org/12653/ Salmonella Infection Level: http://orgprints.org/13728/ As Far as I Understand Thinktanks … As Far as I: http://www.badscience.net/2008/06/707/ Meaningful Debates Need Clear Information Meaningful Debates: http://www.badscience.net/2007/10/557/ in the Independent: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3084306.ece and the Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?


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Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis by Robert D. Putnam

assortative mating, business cycle, correlation does not imply causation, deindustrialization, demographic transition, desegregation, ending welfare as we know it, epigenetics, full employment, George Akerlof, helicopter parent, impulse control, income inequality, index card, jobless men, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, Occupy movement, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, school choice, selection bias, Socratic dialogue, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the built environment, upwardly mobile, Walter Mischel, white flight, working poor

Henderson and Nancy Berla, A New Generation of Evidence: The Family Is Critical to Student Achievement (Washington, DC: National Committee for Citizens in Education, 1994), 1. Other recent overviews of the vast literature on the effects of parental engagement include William H. Jeynes, “The Relationship Between Parental Involvement and Urban Secondary School Student Academic Achievement: A Meta-Analysis,” Urban Education 42 (January 2007): 82–110; Nancy E. Hill and Diana F. Tyson, “Parental Involvement in Middle School: A Meta-Analytic Assessment of the Strategies That Promote Achievement,” Developmental Psychology 45 (May 2009): 740–63; William Jeynes, “A Meta-Analysis of the Efficacy of Different Types of Parental Involvement Programs for Urban Students,” Urban Education 47 (July 2004): 706–42; Frances L. Van Voorhis, Michelle F. Maier, Joyce L. Epstein, and Chrishana M. Lloyd with Therese Leung, The Impact of Family Involvement on the Education of Children Ages 3 to 8: A Focus on Literacy and Math Achievement Outcomes and Socio-Emotional Skills (New York: MDRC, 2013), accessed June 16, 2014, http://www.mdrc.org/sites/default/files/The_Impact_of_Family_Involvement_FR.pdf; and Mikaela J.

Logan, Elisabeta Minca, and Sinem Adar, “The Geography of Inequality: Why Separate Means Unequal in American Public Schools,” Sociology of Education 85 (July 2012): 287–301; and for a comprehensive recent overview, Gregory J. Palardy, “High School Socioeconomic Segregation and Student Attainment,” American Educational Research Journal 50 (August 2013): 714–54. Reyn van Ewijk and Peter Sleegers, “The Effect of Peer Socioeconomic Status on Student Achievement: A Meta-Analysis,” Educational Research Review 5 (June 2010): 134–50, found that the effect of the socioeconomic composition of a child’s classroom on his or her test scores is twice as large as the effect of the socioeconomic composition of his or her school. This entire line of research was stimulated in the 1960s by concerns about the effects of racial segregation, and in that era class segregation heavily overlapped with racial segregation.

Ferguson, “Pathways to Prosperity: Meeting the Challenge of Preparing Young Americans for the 21st Century” (report for the Pathways to Prosperity project, Harvard School of Graduate Education, 2011); Ben Olinsky and Sarah Ayres, “Training for Success: A Policy to Expand Apprenticeships in the United States” (report for the Center for American Progress, December 2013), accessed October 12, 2014, http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/apprenticeship_report.pdf; Robert I. Lerman, “Expanding Apprenticeship Opportunities in the United States” (report for the Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 2014); David Card, Jochen Kluve and Andrea Weber, “Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis,” Economic Journal 120 (November 2010): F452–F477; Katherine S. Newman and Hella Winston, Learning to Labor in the 21st Century: Building the Next Generation of Skilled Workers (New York: Metropolitan, forthcoming 2015). YouthBuild has shown positive results in nonexperimental research; see, for example, Wally Abrazaldo et al., “Evaluation of the YouthBuild Youth Offender Grants: Final Report,” Social Policy Research Associates (May 2009).


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Overdosed America: The Broken Promise of American Medicine by John Abramson

germ theory of disease, Louis Pasteur, medical malpractice, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, p-value, placebo effect, profit maximization, profit motive, publication bias, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

Purcaro, “Randomized, Controlled Trial of Long-Term Moderate Exercise Training in Chronic Heart Failure: Effects on Functional Capacity, Quality of Life, and Clinical Outcome,” Circulation. 99:1173–1182, 1999. 100 not exactly the same as in the defibrillator study: The patients in the exercise study had more severe heart failure, were younger (55 versus 64 years old), and did not all have heart disease caused by inadequate blood supply through the coronary arteries (85 percent versus 100 percent). 101 smoking cessation after heart attack: Average reduction in the absolute risk of death among the 12 studies reviewed is 11.1 percent, and the relative risk reduction in smokers is 46 percent compared with those who continued to smoke. The patients in these studies all had heart attacks, but ejection fraction or the incidence of congestive heart failure is not reported, precluding direct comparison with the defibrillator study. K. Wilson, N. Gibson, A. Willan, and D. Cook, “Effect of Smoking Cessation on Mortality After Myocardial Infarction: Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies,” Archives of Internal Medicine 160:939–944, 2000. 101 the acid-blocking drug Prilosec: Organic molecules of identical chemical composition can occur in two forms that are mirror images of each other. Prilosec is a mix of both forms. Nexium is composed of only one form. 102 “head-to-head” studies between Prilosec and Nexium: J. E. Richter, P. J. Kahrilas, J. Johanson, et al., “Efficacy and Safety of Esomeprazole Compared to Omeprazole in GERD Patients with Erosive Esophagitis: A Randomized Controlled Trial,” American Journal of Gastroenterology 96:656–665, 2001. 102 Would 40 mg of Prilosec daily: See http://www.nexium-us.com/science/cva05c.asp.

VIII-3. 140 “aggressive LDL-lowering therapy: NCEP Full Report, p. II-32. 140 The table mentioned cites nine references: NCEP Full Report, p. II-5. 141 average age was 51: The Upjohn study was the only one that was difficult to find, having been completed in 1978, nine years before the first statin came on the market. S. B. Manuck, A. B. Mendelsohn, J. R. Kaplan, and S. H. Belle, “Cholesterol Reduction and Non-Illness Mortality: Meta-Analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials,” British Medical Journal 322:11–15, 2001. 141 “The relationship between serum cholesterol: NCEP Full Report, p. II-34. 141 total cholesterol is not significantly related to mortality: Framingham Heart Study reported in 1993. See Kronmal, Cain, Ye, and Omenn, op. cit. 141 not even an increase in the risk of heart attack: B. M. Psaty, C. D. Furberg, L. H. Kuller, et al., “Traditional Risk Factors and Subclinical Disease Measures as Predictors of First Myocardial Infarction in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study,” Archives of Internal Medicine 159:1339–1347, 1999. 142 remains high in the elderly: D.

., “Pravastatin in Elderly Individual at Risk of Vascular Disease (PROSPER): A Randomized Controlled Trial,” The Lancet 360:1623–1630, 2002. 145 “There is no evidence: NCEP Full Report p. I–44. 145 “Carcinogenicity of Lipid-Lowering Drugs”: Newman T. B., Hulley S. B., “Carcinogenicity of Lipid-Lowering Drugs,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 275:55-60, 1996. 146 could take many years: Bjerre L.M., LeLorier J., “Do Statins Cause Cancer? A Meta-Analysis of Large Randomized Clinical Trials,” American Journal of Medicine,: 110:716–723, 2001. 147 Dr. Scott Grundy: Quoted in Thomas M. Burton and Chris Adams, “New Government Cholesterol Standards Would Triple Number of Prescriptions,” Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2001. 147 Dr. Walter Willett: Naomi Aoki, “Drug Makers Influence Pondered Eye on U.S. Advice to Cut Cholesterol,” Boston Globe, May 31, 2001. 148 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter newsletter: Jami Rubin and Andrew Baum, “Our Survey of the Statin Market Projects Strong Growth,” Morgan Stanly Dean Witter U.S.


pages: 158 words: 46,760

Overcoming Adrenal Fatigue: How to Restore Hormonal Balance and Feel Renewed, Energized, and Stress Free by Kathryn Simpson

impulse control, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, randomized controlled trial

Association of depression with medical illness: Does cortisol play a role? Biological Psychiatry (55)1:1-9. Bunevicius, R., G. Kazanavicius, R. Zalinkevicius, and A. J. Prange. 1999. Effects of thyroxine as compared with thyroxine plus triiodothyronine in patients with hypothyroidism. New England Journal of Medicine 340(6):424-429. Burke, H. M., M. C. Davis, C. Otte, and D. C. Mohr. 2005. Depression and cortisol responses to psychological stress: A meta-analysis. Psychoneuroendocrinology 30(9):846-856. Burton, J. M., S. Kimball, R. Vieth, et al. 2010. A phase I/II dose-escalation trial of vitamin D3 and calcium in multiple sclerosis. Neurology 74(23):1852-1859. Catena, C., G. Colussi, E. Nadalini, et al. 2008. Cardiovascular outcomes in patients with primary aldosteronism after treatment. Archives of Internal Medicine 168(1):80-85. Chae, C. U., R.

Plasma aldosterone, cortisol, and electrolyte concentrations in physical exercise after magnesium supplementation. Journal of Clinical Chemistry and Clinical Biochemistry 22(11):717-721. Gordon, G. G., and A. L. Southren. 1977. Thyroid hormone effects on steroid hormone metabolism. Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine 53(3):241-259. Gorham, E. D., C. F. Garland, F. C. Garland, et al. 2007. Optimal vitamin D status for colorectal cancer prevention: A quantitative meta analysis. American Journal of Preventative Medicine 32(3):210-216. Gotoh, S., N. Nishimura, O. Takahashi, et al. 2008. Adrenal function in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. European Respiratory Journal 31(6):1268-1273. Grootveld, M., C. Silwood, P. Claxson, B. Serra, and M. Viana. 2001. Health effects of oxidized heated oils. Foodservice Research International 13(1):41-55. Guth, L., Z. Zhang, and E.


pages: 588 words: 131,025

The Patient Will See You Now: The Future of Medicine Is in Your Hands by Eric Topol

23andMe, 3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Anne Wojcicki, Atul Gawande, augmented reality, bioinformatics, call centre, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, conceptual framework, connected car, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, dark matter, data acquisition, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, don't be evil, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Firefox, global village, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, information asymmetry, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, job automation, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, lifelogging, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, placebo effect, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, Snapchat, social graph, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Turing test, Uber for X, uber lyft, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, X Prize

McFadden, “Cholesterol Overhaul,” New York Times, July 8, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2012/07/08/opinion/sunday/the-strip.html. 55. H. E. Bloomfield et al., “Screening Pelvic Examinations in Asymptomatic, Average-Risk Adult Women: An Evidence Report for a Clinical Practice Guideline from the American College of Physicians,” Annals of Internal Medicine 161 (2014): 46–53. 56. L. T. Krogsbøll et al., “General Health Checks in Adults for Reducing Morbidity and Mortality from Disease: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” British Medical Journal 345 (2012): e7191. 57. C. Lane, “The NIMH Withdraws Support for DSM-5,” Psychology Today, May 4, 2013, http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/side-effects/201305/the-nimh-withdraws-support-dsm-5. 58. D. W. Bianchi et al., “DNA Sequencing versus Standard Prenatal Aneuploidy Screening,” New England Journal of Medicine 370, no. 9 (2014): 799–808. 59. N. Biller-Andorno and P.

“Choosing Wisely: Five Things Physicians and Patients Should Question,” ABIM Foundation, accessed August 19, 2014, http://www.choosingwisely.org/doctor-patient-lists/. 70. V. M. Rao and D. C. Levin, “The Overuse of Diagnostic Imaging and the Choosing Wisely Initiative,” Annals of Internal Medicine 157, no. 8 (2012): 574–577. 71. L. T. Krogsbøll et al., “General Health Checks in Adults for Reducing Morbidity and Mortality from Disease: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” British Medical Journal 345 (2012): e7191. 72. S. R. Johnson, “Reducing Wasteful Care,” Modern Healthcare, August 24, 2013, http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20130824/MAGAZINE/308249974. 73. L. M. Schwartz and S. Woloshin, “Endless Screenings Don’t Bring Everlasting Health,” New York Times, April 17, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/health/views/endless-screenings-dont-bring-everlasting-health.html. 74.

Havele, “Why Patients Need to Be Treated like Consumers,” Rock Health, January 28, 2014, http://rockhealth.com/2014/01/why-patients-need-to-be-treated-like-consumers-qa-noah-lang/. 59. B. Mannino, “Do You Really Need an Annual Physical?,” Fox Business, August 24, 2012, http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2012/08/24/do-really-need-annual-physical/. 60. L. T. Krogsbøll et al., “General Health Checks in Adults for Reducing Morbidity and Mortality from Disease: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” British Medical Journal 345 (2012): e7191. 61. E. Klein, “The Two Most Important Numbers in American Health Care,” Washington Post, September 19, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/19/the-two-most-important-numbers-in-american-health-care/?print=1. 62. S. Lohr, “Salesforce Takes Its Cloud Model to Health Care,” New York Times, June 26, 2014, http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/06/26/salesforce-takes-its-cloud-model-to-health-care/. 63.


pages: 302 words: 92,546

Overdiagnosed: Making People Sick in the Pursuit of Health by H. Gilbert Welch, Lisa M. Schwartz, Steven Woloshin

23andMe, double helix, Google Earth, invisible hand, life extension, longitudinal study, mandelbrot fractal, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith

(Note: This calculation assumes that every fetus with trisomy has one of the anatomic abnormalities, which is undoubtedly not true. If I accounted for this it would only increase the estimate of overdiagnosis.)[back] A. Ghidini, “Amniocentesis: Technique and Complications,” in D. S. Basow, ed., UpToDate (Waltham, MA: UpToDate, 2009).[back] R. Smith-Bindman, W. Hosmer, V. A. Feldstein, et al., “Second-trimester Ultrasound to Detect Fetuses with Down Syndrome: A Meta-analysis,” Journal of the American Medical Association 285 (2001): 1044–55.[back] Natalie Angier, “Ultrasound and Fury: One Mother’s Ordeal,” New York Times, November 26, 1996, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=E07E2D9103DF935A15752C1A960958260&sec=&spon=.[back] See http://www.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ab001451.html and http://www.cochrane.org/reviews/en/ab000182.html.[back] See http://www.ahrq.gov/clinic/uspstf/uspsuspg.htm.

So while the penetrance of the so-called severe genotypes is virtually 100 percent for pancreatic insufficiency (which inhibits digestion), penetrance can be lower for other problems, such as meconium ileus (or intestinal obstruction), liver disease, and diabetes. See R. Dorfman and J. Zielenski, “Genotype-Phenotype Correlations in Cystic Fibrosis,” in A. Bush, E. W. F. W. Alton, J. C. Davies, et al., eds., Cystic Fibrosis in the 21st Century (Basel, Switzerland: S. Karger, AG, 2006), 61–68.[back] See S. Chen and G. Parmigiani, “Meta-analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 Penetrance,” Journal of Clinical Oncology 25 (2007): 1329–33. [back] See J. Peto, N. Collins, R. Barfoot, et al., “Prevalence of BRCA1 and BRCA2 Gene Mutations in Patients with Early-onset Breast Cancer,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 91 (1999): 943–49.[back] There are a number of risk factors that have been associated with increased breast cancer risk, including older age, family history, early age of menarche, no children, and late age of first childbirth.

Conveying the underlying absolute risks is more complex: it requires more numbers (because there are two absolute risks underlying each relative risk); these numbers are often very small (decimals are often needed, or the numbers have to be expressed per 1,000 or per 10,000 people); and a complete statement requires a time frame (for example, per year or over ten years).[back] As you might imagine, I’m rounding here to make the math easy. The relative risk reduction estimated by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force in its meta-analysis of all nine trials is 16 percent. See “Effectiveness of Mammography in Reducing Breast Cancer Mortality” at http://www.ahrq.gov/clinic/3rduspstf/breastcancer/bcscrnsum1.htm#results. [back] Again, I’m rounding. The actual estimate by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force is that 1,224 women need to be screened for an average of fourteen years for one to benefit.[back] P. C. Gøtzsche, O.


pages: 302 words: 90,215

Experience on Demand: What Virtual Reality Is, How It Works, and What It Can Do by Jeremy Bailenson

Apple II, augmented reality, computer vision, deliberate practice, experimental subject, game design, Google Glasses, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iterative process, Jaron Lanier, low earth orbit, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, nuclear winter, Oculus Rift, randomized controlled trial, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, telepresence, too big to fail

In the earthquake demo, we were tracking body position in X, Y, Z space, and the subject’s head rotation. In other words, if he walked forward a step (positive on Z), we measured that displacement in his body position. If he looked left (negative on yaw), we measured this rotation. We recently published what is called a meta-analysis—a study that combines the summary data from every paper we could find that has ever been published (and many that haven’t) in an area. The meta-analysis was designed to understand the relationship to all of the features that make VR special—the affordances—and psychological presence. We wanted to understand what the relative benefits of technological immersion were on psychological engagement. We looked at about a dozen features, ranging from image resolution to display field of view to sound quality.

Josh Weinfuss, “Cardinals’ use of virtual reality technology yields record season,” ESPN, January 13, 2016, http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/195755/cardinals-use-of-virtual-reality-technology-yields-record-season. 5. M. Lombard and T. Ditton, “At the Heart of it All: The Concept of Presence,” Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication 3, no. 2 (1997). 6. James J. Cummings and Jeremy N. Bailenson, “How Immersive Is Enough? A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Immersive Technology on User Presence,” Media Psychology 19 (2016): 1–38. 7. “Link, Edwin Albert,” The National Aviation Hall of Fame, http://www.nationalaviation.org/our-enshrinees/link-edwin/. 8. National Academy of Engineering, Memorial Tributes: National Academy of Engineering, Volume 2 (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1984), 174. 9. James L. Neibaur, The Fall of Buster Keaton: His Films for MGM, Educational Pictures, and Columbia (Lanham, MD: Scarecrow Press, 2010), 79. 10.


pages: 346 words: 92,984

The Lucky Years: How to Thrive in the Brave New World of Health by David B. Agus

active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, butterfly effect, clean water, cognitive dissonance, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, Drosophila, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, microcredit, mouse model, Murray Gell-Mann, New Journalism, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, placebo effect, publish or perish, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, statistical model, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Thomas Malthus, wikimedia commons

Berenson, “Self-Perception of Weight and Its Association with Weight-Related Behaviors in Young, Reproductive-Aged Women,” Obstetrics & Gynecology 116, no. 6 (December 2010): 1274–80, doi:10.1097/AOG.0b013e3181fdfc47. 4. Benjamin Radford, “Forty Percent of Overweight Women Don’t Know It,” Discovery News, December 10, 2010, http://news.discovery.com/human/psychology/40-of-overweight-women-dont-know-it-101210.htm, accessed August 7, 2015. 5. A. Lundahl, K. M. Kidwell, and T. D. Nelson, “Parental Underestimates of Child Weight: A Meta-analysis,” Pediatrics 133, no. 3 (March 2014): E689–703, doi:10.1542/peds.2013-2690, Epub February 2, 2014. See also H. Y. Chen et al., “Personal and Parental Weight Misperception and Self-Reported Attempted Weight Loss in US Children and Adolescents, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007–2008 and 2009–2010,” Preventing Chronic Disease 11 (July 31, 2014): E132, doi:10.5888/pcd11.140123.

., “Meat Consumption in Relation to Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease Among Japanese Men and Women,” European Journal of Clinical Nutrition 66, no. 6 (June 2012): 687–93. doi:10.1038/ejcn.2012.6, Epub February 15, 2012. 12. R. Micha, S. K. Wallace, and D. Mozaffarian, “Red and Processed Meat Consumption and Risk of Incident Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, and Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Circulation 121, no. 21 (June 1, 2010): 2271–83, doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.924977, Epub May 17, 2010. 13. The debate about the risk factors related to the consumption of red meat was well explained by Patrick J. Skerrett, “Study Urges Moderation in Red Meat Intake,” Harvard Health (blog), March 13, 2012, www.health.harvard.edu/blog/study-urges-moderation-in-red-meat-intake-201203134490. 14.

Jeffrey Beall, “List of Predatory Publishers,” Scholarly Open Access blog, last modified January 2, 2014, http://scholarlyoa.com/2014/01/02/list-of-predatory-publishers-2014/. 23. P. Autier, “Vitamin D Status and Ill Health: A Systematic Review,” Lancet Diabetes Endocrinology 2, no. 1 (January 2014): 76–89, doi:10.1016/S2213-8587(13)70165-7, Epub December 6, 2013. 24. I. R. Reid, “Effects of Vitamin D Supplements on Bone Mineral Density: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” Lancet 383, no. 9912 (January 11, 2014): 146–55, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61647-5, Epub October 11, 2013. 25. E. S. LeBlanc et al., “Screening for Vitamin D Deficiency: Systematic Review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force,” Annals of Internal Medicine 162, no. 2 (January 20, 2015): 109–22, doi:10.7326/M14-1659. 26. Anahad O’Conner, “Fish Oil Claims Not Well Supported,” New York Times, March 30, 2015, http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/30/fish-oil-claims-not-supported-by-research. 27.


Are We Getting Smarter?: Rising IQ in the Twenty-First Century by James R. Flynn

Flynn Effect, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, popular electronics, twin studies

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Intelligence, 37: 249–255. Lynn, R., Allik, J., Pullman, H., & Laidra (2002a). A study of intelligence in Estonia. Psychological Reports, 91: 1022–1026. 296 References (2002b). Sex differences on the Progressive Matrices among adolescents: Some data for Estonia. Personality and Individual Differences, 34: 669–679. Lynn, R., & Irwing, P. (2004). Sex differences on the Progressive Matrices: A meta-analysis. Intelligence, 32: 481–498. Lynn, R., & Kazlauskaite, V. (2002). A study of IQ in Lithuania. Psychological Reports, 95: 611–612. Lynn, R., & Vanhanen, T. (2002). IQ and the Wealth of Nations. Westport, CT: Praeger. (2006). IQ and Global Inequality. Augusta, GA: Washington Summit. Mackintosh, N. J. (1998). Reply to Lynn. Journal of Biosocial Science, 30: 533–539. Maguire, E. A., Gadian, D. G., Johnsrude, I.

The suitability of Raven’s Standard Progressive Matrices for various groups in South Africa. Personality and Individual Differences, 13: 149–160. People v. Superior Court of Tulare County, 21 Cal.Rptr.3d 542 (Cal. Ct.App.) December 6, 2004. People v. Superior Court of Tulare County, 155 P.3d 259 (Cal.) April 12, 2007. Pietschnig, J., Voracek, M., & Formann, A. K. (2010). Pervasiveness of the IQ rise: A cross-temporal meta-analysis. PLoS ONE, 5: e14406. PISA (2006). Science Competencies for the Modern World. Paris: OECD – Programme for International Science Assessment. Raven, J. (1986). Manual for Raven’s Progressive Matrices and Vocabulary Scales (research supplement No. 3). London: H. K. Lewis. Raven, J., & Court, J. H. (1989). Manual for Raven’s Progressive Matrices and Vocabulary Scales (research supplement No. 4).


pages: 320 words: 96,006

The End of Men: And the Rise of Women by Hanna Rosin

affirmative action, call centre, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, delayed gratification, edge city, facts on the ground, financial independence, hiring and firing, housing crisis, income inequality, informal economy, job satisfaction, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, Northern Rock, post-work, postindustrial economy, purchasing power parity, Results Only Work Environment, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Stanford prison experiment, Steven Pinker, union organizing, upwardly mobile, white picket fence, women in the workforce, young professional

McGregor et. al, “Terror Management and Aggression: Evidence that Mortality Salience Motivates Aggression against Worldview-Threatening Others,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 74, no. 3 (1998): 590–605. women “increasingly reported masculine-stereotyped personality traits”: Jean M. Twenge, “Changes in Masculine and Feminine Traits Over Time: A Meta-Analysis,” Sex Roles 36, no. 5/6 (1997): 305–325. In 2001, Twenge analyzed personality tests: Jean M. Twenge, “Changes in Women’s Assertiveness in Response to Status and Roles: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis, 1931–1993,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81, no. 1 (2001): 133–145. A 1999 analysis of 150 studies on risk-taking behaviors: James P. Byrnes, David C. Miller, and William D. Schafer, “Gender Differences in Risk Taking: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 125, no. 3 (1999): 367–383. To measure rates of competitiveness: Uri Gneezy, Kenneth L. Leonard, and John A. List, “Gender Differences in Competition: Evidence from a Matrilineal and a Patriarchal Society,” Econometrica 77, no. 5 (2009): 1637–1664.


pages: 1,132 words: 156,379

The Ape That Understood the Universe: How the Mind and Culture Evolve by Steve Stewart-Williams

Albert Einstein, battle of ideas, carbon-based life, David Attenborough, European colonialism, feminist movement, financial independence, gender pay gap, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral panic, out of africa, Paul Graham, phenotype, post-industrial society, Richard Feynman, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, twin studies

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Natural language and natural selection. In J. H. Barkow, L. Cosmides, & J. Tooby (Eds.), The adapted mind: Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture (pp. 451–493). Oxford University Press. Pinker, Susan. (2008). The sexual paradox: Troubled boys, gifted girls, and the real difference between the sexes. New York: Scribner. Polderman, T. J. C., Benyamin, B., de Leeuw, C. A., et al. (2015). Meta-analysis of the heritability of human traits based on fifty years of twin studies. Nature Genetics, 47, 702–709. Pollan, M. (1990). The botany of desire: A plant’s-eye view of the world. New York: Random House. Popper, K. R. (1979). Objective knowledge: An evolutionary approach. Oxford, UK: Clarendon. Pound, N., Lawson, D. W., Toma, A. M., et al. (2014). Facial fluctuating asymmetry is not associated with childhood ill-health in a large British cohort study.

Testing the controversy: An empirical examination of adaptationists’ attitudes towards politics and science. Human Nature, 18, 313–328. Tylor, E. B. (1871). Primitive culture: Researches into the development of mythology, philosophy, religion, art and customs. New York: Henry Holt. van den Berghe, P. L. (1979). Human family systems: An evolutionary view. New York: Elsevier. Van Dongen, S., & Gangestad, S. W. (2011). Human fluctuating asymmetry in relation to health and quality: A meta-analysis. Evolution and Human Behavior, 32, 380–398. van Schaik, C. P., Ancrenaz, M., Borgen, G., et al. (2003). Orangutan cultures and the evolution of material culture. Science, 299, 102–105. van Veelen, M., García, J., Sabelis, M. W., & Egas, M. (2012). Group selection and inclusive fitness are not equivalent; the Price equation vs. models and statistics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 299, 64–80.


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The Vegetarian Myth: Food, Justice, and Sustainability by Lierre Keith

British Empire, car-free, clean water, cognitive dissonance, correlation does not imply causation, Drosophila, dumpster diving, en.wikipedia.org, Gary Taubes, Haber-Bosch Process, longitudinal study, McMansion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, peak oil, placebo effect, Rosa Parks, the built environment

Cornell University’s Program of Breast Cancer and Environmental Risk Factors warned women at risk for breast cancer to avoid eating soy. After endorsing soy in 1999, the nutrition committee of the American Heart Association did a turnaround in 2006, announcing that soy confers no benefit and that the organization “therefore does not recommend isoflavone supplements in food or pills.”267 And while it’s true that the FDA has endorsed soy as “heart healthy,” that endorsement was based on a meta-analysis of studies on soy and heart disease—a meta-analysis paid for by PTI (Protein Technologies International, which is partly owned by Du-Pont).268 One soy researcher admitted publicly in 2001 that: Clinical work is driven by the idea that the isoflavone levels of Asians were extremely high and that low incidences of hormonal disease was due to high circulating levels of these compounds. If we look at a new cohort study in Japan, we see an average intake of 6-8 g per day.

In dogs, cholesterol feeding had no effect at all unless the poor creatures had their thyroids removed or chemically suppressed.45 Writes Anthony Colpo, “High amounts of cholesterol appeared to be readily metabolized by carnivorous animals, whereas herbivorous animals may not be equipped to metabolize large amounts of dietary cholesterol or animal fat, both of which are absent from plant foods.”46 Not to put too fine a point on it, but duh? Remember that 80 percent of the cholesterol in your blood was made by your body. Only 20 percent was put there by your food choices. Your body knows where it wants that cholesterol level. It may have been misled—by insulin, for instance—but it will adjust its production based on what you ingest. If you eat more cholesterol, it will produce less. A meta-analysis of one hundred sixty seven—yes, that’s 167—cholesterol-feeding experiments found that raising dietary cholesterol had a negligible effect on blood cholesterol, and no link to CHD (coronary heart disease) risk.47 Before we go any further, do you even know what cholesterol is? This benign, maligned substance is needed by every cell in your body, and most of all by the ones that make you human.


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Cynical Theories: How Activist Scholarship Made Everything About Race, Gender, and Identity―and Why This Harms Everybody by Helen Pluckrose, James A. Lindsay

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, centre right, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, conceptual framework, desegregation, Donald Trump, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, feminist movement, germ theory of disease, Isaac Newton, late capitalism, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral panic, neurotypical, phenotype, sexual politics, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, transatlantic slave trade, white flight, women in the workforce

Linda Bacon, “Health at Every Size: Excerpts and Downloads,” LindaBacon.org, n.d., lindabacon.org/health-at-every-size-book/haes-excerpts-and-downloads/. 32.See these metastudies addressing the claims of HAES: Caroline K. Kramer, Bernard Zinman, and Ravi Retnakaran, “Are Metabolically Healthy Overweight and Obesity Benign Conditions?: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Annals of Internal Medicine 159 no. 11 (December 03, 2013), annals.org/aim/article-abstract/1784291/metabolically-healthy-overweight-obesity-benign-conditions-systematic-review-meta-analysis?doi=10.7326/0003-4819-159-11-201312030-00008; Lara L. Roberson et al., “Beyond BMI: The ‘Metabolically Healthy Obese’ Phenotype and Its Association with Clinical/Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality—A Systematic Review,” BMC Public Health 14, no. 1 (2014): article 14. 33.The ASDAH website states that its commitment to inclusion encompasses diversity based on ethnicity, race, nationality, immigration status, gender identity, sexual orientation, age, spirituality, abilities, education, economic class, social class, body shape and size, and others.

In The Routledge Handbook of Epistemic Injustice, edited by Ian James Kid, José Medina, and Gaile Pohlhaus, Jr., 1–9. London: Routledge, 2017. Kimmel, Michael S. The Politics of Manhood: Profeminist Men Respond to the Mythopoetic Men’s Movement (and the Mythopoetic Leaders Answer). Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1995. Kramer, Caroline K., Bernard Zinman, and Ravi Retnakaran. “Are Metabolically Healthy Overweight and Obesity Benign Conditions?: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.” Annals of Internal Medicine 159, no. 11 (December 03, 2013). annals.org/aim/article-abstract/1784291/metabolically-healthy-overweight-obesity-benign-conditions-systematic-review-meta-ana lysis?doi=10.7326/0003-4819-159-11-201312030-00008. Koehler, Daniel. “Violence and Terrorism from the Far-Right: Policy Options to Counter an Elusive Threat.” Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Studies (February 2019). doi.org/10.19165/2019.2.02.


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Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin

affirmative action, asset allocation, Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, Benoit Mandelbrot, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, butter production in bangladesh, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, Clayton Christensen, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, disruptive innovation, Edward Thorp, experimental economics, financial innovation, framing effect, fundamental attribution error, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Akerlof, hindsight bias, hiring and firing, information asymmetry, libertarian paternalism, Long Term Capital Management, loose coupling, loss aversion, mandelbrot fractal, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, money market fund, Murray Gell-Mann, Netflix Prize, pattern recognition, Philip Mirowski, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, presumed consent, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Wisdom of Crowds, ultimatum game

Meehl, “Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment,” in Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, ed. Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), 716–729; Reid Hastie and Robyn M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2001), 55–72; and William M. Grove, David H. Zald, Boyd S. Lebow, Beth E. Snitz, and Chad Nelson, “Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Assessment 12, no. 1 (2000): 19–30. 17. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005), 54. 18. Scott E. Page, The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), 205–214. Crowds solve different types of problems.

Greenspan, Stephen. “Why We Keep Falling for Financial Scams.” Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2009. ___. Annals of Gullibility: Why We Get Duped and How to Avoid It. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2009. Groopman, Jerome. How Doctors Think. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2007. Grove, William M., David H. Zald, Boyd S. Lebow, Beth E. Snitz, and Chad Nelson. “Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction: A Meta-Analysis.” Psychological Assessment 12, no. 1 (2000): 19–30. Groysberg, Boris, Ashish Nanda, and Nitin Nohria. “The Risky Business of Hiring Stars.” Harvard Business Review, May 2004: 92–100. Groysberg, Boris, Lex Sant, and Robin Abrams. “How to Minimize the Risks of Hiring Outside Stars.” Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2008. Guerrera, Francesco. “Merrill Losses Wipe Away Longtime Profits.”


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The Rise and Fall of Modern Medicine by M. D. James le Fanu M. D.

Barry Marshall: ulcers, clean water, cuban missile crisis, discovery of penicillin, double helix, experimental subject, Gary Taubes, Isaac Newton, lateral thinking, meta analysis, meta-analysis, rising living standards, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell, telerobotics, The Design of Experiments, the scientific method, V2 rocket

, BMJ, 2 April 1949, pp. 557–60. 4.Richard Horton, ‘A Manifesto for Reading Medicine’, The Lancet, 1997, Vol. 349, pp. 872–3. 5.Sandra J. Tanenbaum, ‘What Physicians Know’, NEJM, 1993, Vol. 329, pp. 1268–71. See also Gilbert M. Goldman, ‘The Tacit Dimension of Clinical Judgement’, Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine, 1993, Vol. 63, pp. 47–61. 6.Editorial, ‘Meta-analysis Under Scrutiny’, The Lancet, 1997, Vol. 350, p. 675. See also Samuel Shapiro, ‘Meta-analysis/Schmeta-analysis’, American Journal of Epidemiology, 1994, Vol. 140, pp. 771–8. 7.Editorial, ‘A Meeting Too Many’, The Lancet, 1998, Vol. 352, p. 1161. 8.James McCormick, ‘Death of the Personal Doctor’, The Lancet, 1996, Vol. 2, pp. 667–8. Introduction: Ten Years On REFERENCES 1.Office of Health Economics, Compendium of Health Statistics 20th Edition (Office of Health Economics, 2010). 2.H.

Dudley, ‘The Controlled Clinical Trial and the Advance of Reliable Knowledge: An Outsider Looks In’, BMJ, 1983, Vol. 287, pp. 957–60; correspondence, M. Baum et al., BMJ, 1983, Vol. 287, pp. 1216–18; Bruce G. Charlton, ‘The Future of Clinical Research: From Mega-trials Towards Methodological Rigour and Representative Sampling’, Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 1996, Vol. 2, pp. 159–69; John C. Bailar, ‘The Promise and Problems of Meta-analysis’, NEJM, 1997, Vol. 337, pp. 559–61; S. Blinkhorn, ‘Meta Better’, Nature, 1998, Vol. 392, pp. 671–2. 4: 1952: Chlorpromazine and the Revolution in Psychiatry GENERAL READING Arvid Carlsson, Annual Review of Neuroscience, 1978, Vol. 10, pp. 19–40. David Healy, ‘The History of British Psychopharmacology’, 150 Years of British Psychiatry, Vol. 2: The Aftermath, ed. Hugh Freeman and German E.

Results from the National Comorbility Survey’, Archives of General Psychiatry, 1994, Vol. 51, pp. 8–19. 16.Alisdair Santhouse, ‘The Person in the Patient’, BMJ, 428:a2262. 17.Quoted in Jackie Law, Big Pharma: How the World’s Biggest Drug Companies Control Illness (Constable, 2006). 18.Cheryll Barron, ‘Big Pharma Snared by Net’, Observer, 26 September 2004. 19.Jackie Law, Big Pharma: How the World’s Biggest Drug Companies Control Illness (Constable, 2006). 20.Irvine Kirsch, 2009, The Emperor’s New Drugs (Bodley Head, 2009). 21.Dr Malcolm Kendrick, The Great Cholesterol Con (John Blake, 2007). 22.C. T. T. Collaborators, ‘Efficacy and Safety of Cholesterol-Lowering Treatment: Prospective Meta-Analysis of Data from 90,056 Participants by the Incidents of Fourteen Randomised Trials of Statins’, The Lancet, 2005, Vol. 366, pp. 1267–72. 23.‘Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults. Executive Summary of The Third Report of The National Cholesterol Education Programme’, JAMA, 2001, Vol. 285, pp. 2486–97. 24.D. Ricks and R. Raben, ‘Cholesterol Guidelines, Drugs Panelist Links Under Fire’, Newsday,15 July 2003. 25.J.


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The Case Against Sugar by Gary Taubes

Albert Einstein, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, epigenetics, Everything should be made as simple as possible, Gary Taubes, Isaac Newton, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, pre–internet, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, the new new thing, the scientific method, Works Progress Administration

“Dietary Surveys from the Tokelau Island Migrant Study.” Ecology of Food and Nutrition 19, no. 2: 83–97. Hass, H. B. 1960. Letter to Roger Adams, April 29. Sugar Research Foundation, Inc. Papers of Roger Adams, University of Illinois Archives, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He, F. J., J. Li, and G. A. MacGregor. 2013. “Effect of Longer Term Modest Salt Reduction on Blood Pressure: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomised Trials.” Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews no. 4 (April 30): CD004937. Heinbecker, P. 1928. “Studies on the Metabolism of Eskimos.” Journal of Biological Chemistry 80, no. 2 (Dec. 1): 461–75. Helmchen, L. A., and R. M. Henderson. 2004. “Changes in the Distribution of Body Mass Index of White US Men, 1890–2000.” Annals of Human Biology 31, no. 2 (March–April): 174–81. Hess, J.

“Influence of Dietary Fructose and Sucrose on Serum Triglycerides in Hyper­trigl­yceri­demia and Diabetes.” In Sipple and McNutt, eds., 1974, 441–50. Noorden, C. von. 1907. “Obesity.” Trans. D. Spence. In Metabolism and Practical Medicine, Vol. 3: The Pathology of Metabolism, ed. C. von Noorden and I. W. Hall (Chicago: W. Keener, 1907), 693–715. Noto, H., A. Goto, T. Tsujimoto, and M. Noda. 2012. “Cancer Risk in Diabetic Patients Treated with Metformin: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” PLOS One 7, no. 3 (March): e33411. Nuccio, S. 1964. “Advertising: Sales Clicking for Dietetic Pop.” New York Times, May 20: 68. O’Connor, A. 2015. “Coca-Cola Funds Effort to Alter Obesity Battle.” New York Times, Aug. 10: A1. Ors, R., E. Ozek, G. Baysoy, et al. 1999. “Comparison of Sucrose and Human Milk on Pain Response in Newborns.” European Journal of Pediatrics 158, no. 1 (Jan.): 63–66.

London: Tim Goodwin. Smith, C. J., E. M. Manahan, and S. G. Pablo. 1994. “Food Habit and Cultural Changes Among the Pima Indians.” In Joe and Young, eds., 1994, 407–33. Smith, D. 1952. “Fight Continues Between Dentists, Sugar Industry.” Boston Globe, Sept. 1: 34. Snapper, I. 1960. Bedside Medicine. New York: Grune & Stratton. Sniderman, A. D., K. Williams, J. H. Contois, et al. 2011. “A Meta-Analysis of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, Non-High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, and Apolipoprotein B as Markers of Cardiovascular Risk.” Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes 4, no. 3 (May): 337–45. Snowden, C. 2015. “The Coca-Cola ‘Exposé’ Had All the Spin of a Classic Anti-Sugar Smear Piece.” Spectator, Oct. 12. At https://​health.​spectator.​co.​uk/​the-​coca-​cola-​expose-​had-all-​the-spin-​of-a-​classic-​anti-sugar-​smear-​piece/.


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The Health Gap: The Challenge of an Unequal World by Michael Marmot

active measures, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Atul Gawande, Bonfire of the Vanities, Broken windows theory, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Celtic Tiger, centre right, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, Doha Development Round, epigenetics, financial independence, future of work, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, illegal immigration, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, Kenneth Rogoff, Kibera, labour market flexibility, longitudinal study, lump of labour, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, New Urbanism, obamacare, paradox of thrift, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, RAND corporation, road to serfdom, Simon Kuznets, Socratic dialogue, structural adjustment programs, the built environment, The Spirit Level, trickle-down economics, twin studies, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, working poor

Two months later, the Principal asked for sixty volunteers – an addition of 45 over what she had. Linda Fried, geriatrician, gerontologist, epidemiologist Lack of social integration can be fatal. If Mr O. had the choice of giving up smoking or being more enmeshed socially, it is a close thing: both are potentially life-saving, but social integration is marginally better for his health. A ‘meta-analysis’ combined results from 148 studies of men and women with an average age of sixty-four at the start of the study. It found that over an average 7.5 years of follow-up, people who were socially engaged had a 50 per cent lower chance of dying. Being socially integrated in a variety of ways was more protective than simply being married or not living alone.24 The protective effect was similar in men and women.

British Medical Bulletin. 1997; 53(1): 96–108. 8Felitti VJ, Anda RF, Nordenberg D, Williamson DF, Spitz AM, Edwards V, et al. Relationship of childhood abuse and household dysfunction to many of the leading causes of death in adults. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 1998; 14(4): 245–58. 9Norman RE, Byambaa M, De R, Butchart A, Scott J, Vos T. The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Med. 2012;9(11):e1001349. 10Smith Z. NW. London: Hamish Hamilton, 2012, pp. 270–1. 11Plomin R. Genetics and children’s experiences in the family. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. 1995; 36: 33–67; Plomin R. Nature and Nurture: An Introduction to Human Behavioral Genetics. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks-Cole, 1990. 12UCL Institute of Health Equity. Marmot Indicators 2014 [10/11/2014].

Available from: https://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/members/workplans-and-draft-reports. 16Head et al. The Potential Impact; Bambra CL, Whitehead MM, Sowden AJ, Akers J, Petticrew MP. Shifting schedules: the health effects of reorganizing shift work. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2008; 34(5): 427–34; Vyas MV, Garg AX, Iansavichus AV, Costella J, Donner A, Laugsand LE, et al. Shift work and vascular events: systematic review and meta-analysis. British Medical Journal. 2012; 345: e4800. 17Steptoe and Kivimaki. Stress and cardiovascular disease. 18Beveridge W. Social Insurance and Allied Services. London: HMSO, 1942. 19New Policy Institute, MacInnes T, Aldridge H, Bushe S, Kenway P, Tinson A. Monitoring Poverty and Social Exclusion 2013. Joseph Rowntree Foundation; 2013. 20OECD. Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries.


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10% Human: How Your Body's Microbes Hold the Key to Health and Happiness by Alanna Collen

Asperger Syndrome, Barry Marshall: ulcers, Berlin Wall, biofilm, clean water, correlation does not imply causation, David Strachan, discovery of penicillin, Drosophila, Fall of the Berlin Wall, friendly fire, germ theory of disease, global pandemic, hygiene hypothesis, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, illegal immigration, John Snow's cholera map, Kickstarter, Louis Pasteur, Maui Hawaii, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, placebo effect, the scientific method

Hempel, A. et al. (2012). Probiotics for the prevention and treatment of antibiotic-associated diarrhea: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association 307: 1959–1969. 4. AlFaleh, K. et al. (2011). Probiotics for prevention of necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm infants. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Issue 3. 5. Ringel, Y. and Ringel-Kulka, T. (2011). The rationale and clinical effectiveness of probiotics in irritable bowel syndrome. Journal of Clinical Gastroenterology 45(S3): S145–S148. 6. Pelucchi, C. et al. (2012). Probiotics supplementation during pregnancy or infancy for the prevention of atopic dermatitis: A meta-analysis. Epidemiology 23: 402–414. 7. Calcinaro, F. (2005). Oral probiotic administration induces interleukin-10 production and prevents spontaneous autoimmune diabetes in the non-obese diabetic mouse.

Association or lack of association between tetracycline class antibiotics used for acne vulgaris and lupus erythematosus. British Journal of Dermatology 157: 540–546. 13. Tan, L. et al. (2002). Use of antimicrobial agents in consumer products. Archives of Dermatology 138: 1082–1086. 14. Aiello, A.E. et al. (2008). Effect of hand hygiene on infectious disease risk in the community setting: A meta-analysis. American Journal of Public Health 98: 1372–1381. 15. Bertelsen, R.J. et al. (2013). Triclosan exposure and allergic sensitization in Norwegian children. Allergy 68: 84–91. 16. Syed, A.K. et al. (2014). Triclosan promotes Staphylococcus aureus nasal colonization. mBio 5: e01015–13. 17. Dale, R.C. et al. (2004). Encephalitis lethargica syndrome; 20 new cases and evidence of basal ganglia autoimmunity.


The Psychopath Inside: A Neuroscientist's Personal Journey Into the Dark Side of the Brain by James Fallon

Bernie Madoff, epigenetics, Everything should be made as simple as possible, meta analysis, meta-analysis, personalized medicine, phenotype, Rubik’s Cube, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell, theory of mind

But the increase was much greater in males with the warrior gene. Twelve percent of the guys had this combination of abuse and the warrior gene, but they were responsible for 44 percent of the men’s violent convictions, doing four times their share of the damage. Overall, 85 percent of the males with the warrior gene who were severely maltreated became antisocial. A similar pattern was seen in females, though they were less violent. A later meta-analysis Caspi and his colleagues conducted of similar studies showed that even without abuse, the warrior gene does increase aggression, but its effect on its own is much smaller. Those several months following birth are sometimes called the “fourth trimester,” and this extended period of what should have been prenatal development means that early environment for a human infant is particularly important.

Insel, Thomas R. “The challenge of translation in social neuroscience: a review of oxytocin, vasopressin, and affiliative behavior.” Neuron 65, no. 6 (2010): 768. Kim-Cohen, Julia, Avshalom Caspi, Alan Taylor, Benjamin Williams, Rhiannon Newcombe, Ian W. Craig, and Terrie E. Moffitt. “MAOA, maltreatment, and gene-environment interaction predicting children’s mental health: New evidence and a meta-analysis.” Molecular Psychiatry 11, no. 10 (2006): 903–913. Kirsch, Peter, Christine Esslinger, Qiang Chen, Daniela Mier, Stefanie Lis, Sarina Siddhanti, Harald Gruppe, Venkata S. Mattay, Bernd Gallhofer, and Andreas Meyer-Lindenberg. “Oxytocin modulates neural circuitry for social cognition and fear in humans.” The Journal of Neuroscience 25, no. 49 (2005): 11489–11493. Koenigs, Michael, Liane Young, Ralph Adolphs, Daniel Tranel, Fiery Cushman, Marc Hauser, and Antonio Damasio.


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The Science of Storytelling: Why Stories Make Us Human, and How to Tell Them Better by Will Storr

David Brooks, Gordon Gekko, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Steven Pinker, theory of mind, Wall-E

We can become so replaced by the storyteller’s simulated model-world that we miss our train stop or forget to go to sleep. Psychologists call this state ‘transportation’. Research suggests that, when we’re transported, our beliefs, attitudes and intentions are vulnerable to being altered, in accordance with the mores of the story, and that these alterations can stick. ‘Research has demonstrated that the transported “traveller” can return changed by the journey,’ write the authors of a meta-analysis of 132 studies of narrative transportation. ‘The transformation that narrative transportation achieves is persuasion of the story-receiver.’ In the 1960s, the novel One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn dragged its readers through the experiences of an ordinary prisoner in one of Stalin’s gulag camps, shocking the Communist citizens of the Soviet Union. During the nineteenth century, slave narratives brought white readers into the lives of those trapped in bondage in the southern states of America.

Another test found that participants given electric shocks: The Domesticated Brain, Bruce Hood (Pelican, 2014) p. 115. ‘A critical element to our well-being’: Redirect, Timothy D. Wilson (Penguin, 2013) p. 268. Roy Baumeister writes that: The Cultural Animal, Roy Baumeister (Oxford University Press, 2005) p. 102. 4.4 ‘the invisible actor’: Making up the Mind, Chris Frith (Blackwell Publishing, 2007) p. 109. ‘the transported “traveller” can return changed’: ‘The Extended Transportation-Imagery Model: A Meta-Analysis of the Antecedents and Consequences of Consumers’ Narrative Transportation’, Tom van Laer, Ko de Ruyter, Luca M. Visconti and Martin Wetzels; Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 40, No. 5 (February 2014) pp. 797–817. 4.5 One study had a group of white Americans: ‘Entertainment-education effectively reduces prejudice’, Sohad Murrar, Markus Brauer; Group Processes & Intergroup Relation, 2018, Vol 21, Issue 7.


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Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future by Johan Norberg

agricultural Revolution, anti-communist, availability heuristic, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business climate, clean water, continuation of politics by other means, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, demographic transition, desegregation, Donald Trump, Flynn Effect, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, Gunnar Myrdal, Haber-Bosch Process, Hans Island, Hans Rosling, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, income inequality, income per capita, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, John Snow's cholera map, Kibera, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, more computing power than Apollo, moveable type in China, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, open economy, place-making, Rosa Parks, sexual politics, special economic zone, Steven Pinker, telerobotics, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transatlantic slave trade, very high income, working poor, Xiaogang Anhui farmers, zero-sum game

Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015, p. 17f. 23 Environmental Performance Index 2006. 24 Indur M. Goklany, The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet. Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2007, p. 149f. 25 Bishwa S. Koirala, Hui Li and Robert P. Berrens, ‘Further investigation of environmental Kuznets curve studies using meta-analysis’, International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics, 22, S11 (2011). 26 Indur Goklany, ‘Deaths and death rates from extreme weather events: 1900–2008’. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, 14, 4 (2009), 102–9. 27 Todd Moss and Benjamin Leo, ‘Maximizing access to energy: estimates of access and generation for the overseas private investment corporation’s portfolio’, Center for Global Development, January 2014, www.cgdev.org/publication/maximizing-access-energy-estimates-access-and-generation-overseas-private-investment (accessed on 22 March 2016). 28 Bailey 2015, p. 200. 29 Lindstrand et al. 2006, p. 70.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003, p. 488. 19 World Economic Forum, ‘Global gender gap report 2015’, http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-gender-gap-report-2015 (accessed on 22 March 2016). 20 UNDP, Human Development Report 2014. New York: UNDP, 2014. 21 Pinker 2011, p. 413. 22 United Nations Children’s Fund, Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting: What Might the Future Hold? New York: UNICEF, 2014. 23 Pew Research Center 2013. 24 Jean M. Twenge, ‘Attitudes toward women, 1970–1995: a meta-analysis’, Psychology of Women Quarterly, 21, 1 (1997), 35–51. 25 Pinker 2011, p. 408f. 26 Lillian Faderman, The Gay Revolution: The Story of the Struggle. New York: Simon and Schuster, 2015, p. 137. 27 Aaron Day: ‘The PinkNews guide to the history of England and Wales equal marriage’, PinkNews, 15 July 2013. 28 John D’Emilio, Sexual Politics, Sexual Communities, 2nd edn. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2012, p. 156. 29 Faderman 2015. 30 ‘The gay divide’, The Economist, 11 October 2014. 10 The next generation 1 Julian L.


Fix Your Gut: The Definitive Guide to Digestive Disorders by John Brisson

23andMe, big-box store, biofilm, butterfly effect, clean water, life extension, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, pattern recognition, publication bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, Zimmermann PGP

This compartment, with both activator and regulatory T cells, could be involved in setting the agedependent threshold for allergic sensitization to environmental allergens” It would appear that a diffuse H. pylori colonization in the stomach helps to create robust low-grade mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) which is the first line of defense against allergic proteins that we consume. There is one study, however, that does attempt to shed some doubt on H. pylori’s protection against asthma and allergies. The study is a meta-analysis based on 770 cases and 785 controls. The study did not find a huge link between H. pylori and asthma and allergies. There were issues with the study because they used serological ELISA tests for H. pylori that would show the body’s reaction to a prior infection but not if the H. pylori were flora. “In this present study, the included studies used a stable serological method, ELISA, as a unique approach for detecting the presence of H. pylori infection.

L-Arabinose transport and catabolism in yeast. FEBS J. 2007;274(14):3589-600. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17627668 Inulin / FOS http://www.marksdailyapple.com/prebiotics/. Accessed April 27, 2014 http://www.breakingtheviciouscycle.info/knowledge_base/detail/inulin/ Accessed April 27, 2014 Lactulose Beers, Mark. The Merck Manual, Merck Research Laboratories, 2006. Shukla S, Shukla A, Mehboob S, Guha S. Meta-analysis: the effects of gut flora modulation using prebiotics, probiotics and synbiotics on minimal hepatic encephalopathy. Aliment Pharmacol Ther. 2011;33(6):662-71. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21251030 XOS http://www.marksdailyapple.com/prebiotics/. Accessed April 27, 2014 Xylooligosaccharides (XOS) as an Emerging Prebiotic: Microbial Synthesis, Utilization, Structural Characterization, Bioactive Properties, and Applications.

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Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought by Andrew W. Lo

"Robert Solow", Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, algorithmic trading, Andrei Shleifer, Arthur Eddington, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, asset-backed security, backtesting, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Bonfire of the Vanities, bonus culture, break the buck, Brownian motion, business cycle, business process, butterfly effect, buy and hold, capital asset pricing model, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Carmen Reinhart, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computerized trading, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Diane Coyle, diversification, diversified portfolio, double helix, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Ernest Rutherford, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Flash crash, Fractional reserve banking, framing effect, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, housing crisis, incomplete markets, index fund, interest rate derivative, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Meriwether, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, martingale, merger arbitrage, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, money market fund, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, Nick Leeson, old-boy network, out of africa, p-value, paper trading, passive investing, Paul Lévy, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, predatory finance, prediction markets, price discovery process, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative hedge fund, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, RAND corporation, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Sam Peltzman, Shai Danziger, short selling, sovereign wealth fund, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, statistical arbitrage, Steven Pinker, stochastic process, stocks for the long run, survivorship bias, Thales and the olive presses, The Great Moderation, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, too big to fail, transaction costs, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, ultimatum game, Upton Sinclair, US Airways Flight 1549, Walter Mischel, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

Not only were the researchers able to pinpoint the region of the brain where the comparison was made—a specific area in the prefrontal cortex—but they were even able to calculate the subjects’ mental exchange rate of $4.31 per face. Since the rapid expansion of brain imaging technologies in the twenty-first century, there have been hundreds of fMRI studies on subjective value. There’s now so much science on the topic that papers analyzing groups of other papers—a method called meta-analysis—have been written to help interpret all the results. A 2013 meta-analysis made by Oscar Bartra, Joseph T. McGuire, and Joseph Kable concluded that subjective value is encoded the same way across all the tested categories, activating the same brain regions within the same systems.35 These findings are an excellent example of how quickly our knowledge of the brain is changing. Within the space of a few years, a strong hypothesis was proposed—a single neural currency—based on known neurophysiology, which was disputed, and then enhanced by discoveries based on clever experiments with new technology.

Barnea, Amir, Henrik Cronqvist, and Stephan Siegel. 2010. “Nature or Nurture: What Determines Investor Behavior?” Journal of Financial Economics 98: 583– 604. Baron-Cohen, Simon. 1989. “The Autistic Child’s Theory of Mind: A Case of Specific Developmental Delay.” Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry 30: 285–297. Bartra, Oscar, Joseph T. McGuire, and Joseph W. Kable. 2013. “The Valuation System: A Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis of BOLD fMRI Experiments Examining Neural Correlates of Subjective Value.” NeuroImage 76: 412– 427. 440 • References Bass, Thomas A. 1985. The Eudaemonic Pie. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. –––. 2000. The Predictors. New York: Henry Holt. Baumeister, Roy F., Todd F. Heatherton, and Dianne M. Tice. 1994. Losing Control: How and Why People Fail at Self-Regulation. San Diego: Academic Press. BBC News Magazine. 2012.

., 263 Mean Genes (Burnham), 337 mean reversion, 286, 292, 324–326 Medallion Fund, 6 “ME HURT YOU” narrative, 339–340, 341, 343, 345 Melanesia, 151–152 memory, 130 merger arbitrage, 267 Meriwether, John, 241 Merrill Lynch, 242–243, 306, 308, 309 Merton, Robert C., 27, 127, 266, 356–357; fi nancial engineering innovations by, 211; housing crisis viewed by, 322–323; at Long-Term Capital Management, 241; network contagion viewed by, 376–377; Nobel Prize awarded to, 97. See also Black-Scholes/Merton option pricing formula mescaline, 79 meta-analysis, 100 • 477 Metallgesellschaft, 320, 321 method acting, 105 Microsoft Windows, 372 Milgram, Stanley, 346, 347 Mill, John Stuart, 211 Milner, Peter, 87 Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research, 159 Minsky, Marvin, 132–133 mirror neuron, 110, 157 miscarriages, 152 Mischel, Walter, 120–121 mobile banking, 356 money market funds, 228, 300, 301, 409 Moffitt, Terrie, 160 Montague, Read, 97, 98 Moore, Gordon, 356 Moore, Jesse W., 12 Moore’s Law, 356, 358, 385 Morgan Stanley, 235–237, 240, 284, 286, 307, 308 Morgenbesser, Sidney, 46–47 morphine, 89, 90 Morse, Adair, 353–354 mortgages, 7, 290, 292, 293, 297–329, 376, 377, 410 Morton Th iokol Inc., 13–16 Mossin, Jan, 263 motor control, 153 MSCI World Index, 251 Mulherin, J.


pages: 301 words: 78,638

Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones by James Clear

"side hustle", Atul Gawande, Cal Newport, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, clean water, cognitive dissonance, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, financial independence, invisible hand, Lao Tzu, late fees, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Paul Graham, randomized controlled trial, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sam Altman, Saturday Night Live, survivorship bias, Walter Mischel

CHAPTER 5 researchers in Great Britain began working: Sarah Milne, Sheina Orbell, and Paschal Sheeran, “Combining Motivational and Volitional Interventions to Promote Exercise Participation: Protection Motivation Theory and Implementation Intentions,” British Journal of Health Psychology 7 (May 2002): 163–184. implementation intentions are effective: Peter Gollwitzer and Paschal Sheeran, “Implementation Intentions and Goal Achievement: A Meta‐Analysis of Effects and Processes,” Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 38 (2006): 69–119. writing down the exact time and date of when you will get a flu shot: Katherine L. Milkman, John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian, “Using Implementation Intentions Prompts to Enhance Influenza Vaccination Rates,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 26 (June 2011): 10415–10420.

Benjamin Franklin: Benjamin Franklin and Frank Woodworth Pine, Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin (New York: Holt, 1916), 148. Don’t break the chain of creating every day: Shout-out to my friend Nathan Barry, who originally inspired me with the mantra, “Create Every Day.” people who track their progress on goals like losing weight: Benjamin Harkin et al., “Does Monitoring Goal Progress Promote Goal Attainment? A Meta-analysis of the Experimental Evidence,” Psychological Bulletin 142, no. 2 (2016), doi:10.1037/bul0000025. those who kept a daily food log lost twice as much weight as those who did not: Miranda Hitti, “Keeping Food Diary Helps Lose Weight,” WebMD, July 8, 2008, http://www.webmd.com/diet/news/20080708/keeping-food-diary-helps-lose-weight; Kaiser Permanente, “Keeping a Food Diary Doubles Diet Weight Loss, Study Suggests,” Science Daily, July 8, 2008, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080708080738.htm; Jack F.


pages: 284 words: 72,406

Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the Time by Jeff Sutherland, Jj Sutherland

Baxter: Rethink Robotics, business cycle, call centre, clean water, death of newspapers, fundamental attribution error, knowledge worker, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, minimum viable product, pets.com, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, Shai Danziger, Silicon Valley, Tony Hsieh, Toyota Production System

Happy people sell more stuff, make more money, cost less, are less likely to leave their jobs, are healthier, and live longer. Or as a 2005 paper that did a meta-analysis of some 225 papers with over 275,000 participants put it: Happiness leads to success in nearly every domain of our lives, including marriage, health, friendship, community involvement, creativity, and, in particular, our jobs, careers, and businesses.1 The meta-analysts showed that people who felt happy were more likely to secure job interviews, be evaluated more positively by supervisors, show superior performance and productivity, and be better managers. Here’s the really interesting part, though. It intuitively makes sense that happy people do better—it’s because of their success that they’re happy, right? Wrong. From that same meta-analysis: “Study after study shows that happiness precedes important outcomes and indicators of thriving.”


pages: 255 words: 78,207

Web Scraping With Python: Collecting Data From the Modern Web by Ryan Mitchell

AltaVista, Amazon Web Services, cloud computing, en.wikipedia.org, Firefox, Guido van Rossum, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, optical character recognition, random walk, self-driving car, Turing test, web application

If you are storing copyrighted material that you have free access to in your own nonpublic database for the purposes of anal‐ ysis, that is fine. If you are publishing that database to your website for viewing or download, that is not fine. If you are analyzing that database and publishing statistics about word counts, a list of authors by prolificacy, or some other meta-analysis of the data, that is fine. If you are accompanying that meta-analysis with a few select quotes, or brief samples of data to make your point, that is likely also fine, but you might want to examine the “fair use” clause of the DMCA to make sure. Trespass to Chattels Trespass to chattels is fundamentally different from what we think of as “trespassing laws” in that it applies not to real estate or land but to moveable property (such as a server).


pages: 288 words: 73,297

The Biology of Desire: Why Addiction Is Not a Disease by Marc Lewis Phd

delayed gratification, helicopter parent, impulse control, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Rat Park, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Walter Mischel

., The Self-Organizing Brain: From Growth Cones to Functional Networks, Progress in Brain Research vol. 102 (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1994), 227–243. Chapter 2: A Brain Designed for Addiction 1. From William James’s Habit (1887), quoted by Maria Popova at www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2012/09/25/william-james-on-habit. Chapter 3: When Craving Comes to Power (There are no notes for this chapter.) Chapter 4: The Tunnel of Attention 1. For a meta-analysis, see J. MacKillop, M. T. Amlung, L. R. Few, L. A. Ray, L. H. Sweet, and M. R. Munafo, “Delayed Reward Discounting and Addictive Behavior: A Meta-analysis,” Psychopharmacology 216 (2011): 305–321. Chapter 5: Donna’s Secret Identity (There are no notes for this chapter.) Chapter 6: Johnny Needs a Drink 1. Barry J. Everitt and Trevor W. Robbins, “From the Ventral to the Dorsal Striatum: Devolving Views of Their Role in Drug Addiction,” Neuroscience and Biobehavioral Reviews 37, no. 9, part A (2013): 1946–1954. 2.


pages: 280 words: 71,268

Measure What Matters: How Google, Bono, and the Gates Foundation Rock the World With OKRs by John Doerr

Albert Einstein, Bob Noyce, cloud computing, collaborative editing, commoditize, crowdsourcing, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Google X / Alphabet X, Haight Ashbury, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, Khan Academy, knowledge worker, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, PageRank, Paul Buchheit, Ray Kurzweil, risk tolerance, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, subscription business, web application, Yogi Berra, éminence grise

It became Andy Grove’s foundation and the genesis of what we now call the OKR. By the 1960s, management by objectives—or MBOs, as the process was known—had been adopted by a number of forward-thinking companies. The most prominent was Hewlett-Packard, where it was a part of the celebrated “H-P Way.” As these businesses trained their attention on a handful of top priorities, the results were impressive. In a meta-analysis of seventy studies, high commitment to MBOs led to productivity gains of 56 percent, versus 6 percent where commitment was low. Eventually, though, the limitations of MBOs caught up with them. At many companies, goals were centrally planned and sluggishly trickled down the hierarchy. At others, they became stagnant for lack of frequent updating; or trapped and obscured in silos; or reduced to key performance indicators (KPIs), numbers without soul or context.

The attributed remarks are sourced from that recording and hosted on www.whatmatters.com. Scientific management, Taylor wrote : Frederick Winslow Taylor, The Principles of Scientific Management (New York and London: Harper & Brothers, 1911). “crisp and hierarchical” : Andrew S. Grove, High Output Management (New York: Random House, 1983). “a principle of management” : Peter F. Drucker, The Practice of Management (New York: Harper & Row, 1954). In a meta-analysis : Robert Rodgers and John E. Hunter, “Impact of Management by Objectives on Organizational Productivity,” Journal of the American Psychological Association, April 1991. “just another tool” : “Management by Objectives,” The Economist , October 21, 2009. He sought to “create” : Grove, High Output Management . Andy recruited “aggressive introverts” : Andrew S. Grove, iOPEC seminar, 1978. For one contemporary example, Larry Page is an aggressive introvert.


pages: 274 words: 72,657

The Power of Moments: Why Certain Experiences Have Extraordinary Impact by Chip Heath, Dan Heath

Cal Newport, call centre, clean water, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, desegregation, fear of failure, Mahatma Gandhi, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, school choice, six sigma, Steve Ballmer

As an example, take the antidrug program D.A.R.E. (Drug Abuse Resistance Education), launched in 1983, which invites police officers into schools to inform students about the harms of drugs and to encourage a drug-free lifestyle. It’s an admirable and well-intentioned intervention, and it’s popular. It’s the most widely used drug prevention program in the United States. But the evidence from several studies is clear: It doesn’t work. One meta-analysis found that teens enrolled in D.A.R.E. were just as likely to use drugs as those who weren’t. Why doesn’t D.A.R.E. work? Clues about the program’s flaws can be found in the work of Pim Cuijpers, who studied what made antidrug programs successful. Cuijpers’s research had led to a simple conclusion: Programs that reduce drug use employ interactive methods, while ineffective programs don’t. In other words, to resist drugs, students need the opportunity to practice courage.

Rabbinical role-play. The case study is from Paul Vitello (2010, February 10). “Rabbis in Training Receive Lessons in Real-Life Trauma,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/10/nyregion/10acting.html, and Dan’s interview in February 2017 with Rabbi Menachem Penner. Thanks to Rabbi Naphtali Lavenda for calling our attention to the story. Failure of D.A.R.E. An accessible popular account of the Wei Pan meta-analysis is in http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-just-say-no-doesnt-work/. Pim Cuijpers’s review (2002) is “Effective Ingredients of School-Based Drug Prevention Programs: A Systematic Review,” Addictive Behaviors 27: 1012. Plant a tough question. A response to an author survey on November 2016. 85% of workers felt unable to raise issue. Frances J. Milliken (2003). “An Exploratory Study of Employee Silence: Issues That Employees Don’t Communicate Upward and Why,” http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/emplibrary/Milliken.Frances.pdf.


pages: 503 words: 131,064

Liars and Outliers: How Security Holds Society Together by Bruce Schneier

airport security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Brian Krebs, Broken windows theory, carried interest, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, commoditize, corporate governance, crack epidemic, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, desegregation, don't be evil, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Douglas Hofstadter, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, hydraulic fracturing, impulse control, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, iterative process, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Julian Assange, longitudinal study, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, Network effects, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, patent troll, phenotype, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Coase, security theater, shareholder value, slashdot, statistical model, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, too big to fail, traffic fines, transaction costs, ultimatum game, UNCLOS, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, Y2K, zero-sum game

Holt (2000), “Y2K Bibliography of Experimental Economics and Social Science: Ultimatum Game Experiments,” University of Virginia. Hessel Oosterbeek, Randolph Sloof, and Gijs van de Kuilen (2004), “Cultural Differences in Ultimatum Game Experiments: Evidence From a Meta-Analysis,” Experimental Economics, 7:171–88. how the game works Werner Güth, Rolf Schmittberger, and Bernd Schwarze (1982), “An Experimental Analysis of Ultimatum Bargaining,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 3:267–88. turn down offers Hessel Oosterbeek, Randolph Sloof, and Gijs van de Kuilen (2004), “Differences in Ultimatum Game Experiments: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis,” Experimental Economics, 7:171–88. cultural backgrounds Donna L. Bahry (2004), “Trust in Transitional Societies: Experimental Results from Russia,” Paper presented at the American Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago.

cultivate their brand Smooch Reynolds (Dec 2002), “Career Branding: Is There Really Such a Concept?” Public Relations Tactics, 9:7,22. A small complaint Daniel J. Solove (2007), The Future of Reputation: Gossip, Rumor, and Privacy on the Internet, Yale University Press. isn't an effective Daniel Balliet, Laetitia B. Mulder, and Paul A.M. Van Lange (2011), “Reward, Punishment, and Cooperation: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin, 137:594–615. Maine lobstermen James M. Acheson (Apr 1972), “Territories of the Lobstermen,” Natural History Magazine, 81 (4): 60–9. Shame is a common Thomas J. Scheff (2000), “Shame and the Social Bond: A Sociological Theory,” Sociological Theory, 18:84–99. excessive CEO pay Sandeep Gopalan (2007), “Shame Sanctions and Excessive CEO Pay,” Delaware Journal of Corporate Law, 32:757–97.


pages: 478 words: 142,608

The God Delusion by Richard Dawkins

Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Ayatollah Khomeini, Brownian motion, cosmological principle, David Attenborough, Desert Island Discs, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, Fellow of the Royal Society, gravity well, invisible hand, John von Neumann, luminiferous ether, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Murray Gell-Mann, Necker cube, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, placebo effect, planetary scale, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Feynman, Schrödinger's Cat, scientific worldview, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen, trickle-down economics, unbiased observer

Sociologists studying British children have found that only about one in twelve break away from their parents’ religious beliefs. As you might expect, different researchers measure things in different ways, so it is hard to compare different studies. Meta-analysis is the technique whereby an investigator looks at all the research papers that have been published on a topic, and counts up the number of papers that have concluded one thing, versus the number that have concluded something else. On the subject of religion and IQ, the only meta-analysis known to me was published by Paul Bell in Mensa Magazine in 2002 (Mensa is the society of individuals with a high IQ, and their journal not surprisingly includes articles on the one thing that draws them together).57 Bell concluded: ‘Of 43 studies carried out since 1927 on the relationship between religious belief and one’s intelligence and/or educational level, all but four found an inverse connection.

On the subject of religion and IQ, the only meta-analysis known to me was published by Paul Bell in Mensa Magazine in 2002 (Mensa is the society of individuals with a high IQ, and their journal not surprisingly includes articles on the one thing that draws them together).57 Bell concluded: ‘Of 43 studies carried out since 1927 on the relationship between religious belief and one’s intelligence and/or educational level, all but four found an inverse connection. That is, the higher one’s intelligence or education level, the less one is likely to be religious or hold “beliefs” of any kind.’ A meta-analysis is almost bound to be less specific than any one of the studies that contributed to it. It would be nice to have more studies along these lines, as well as more studies of the members of elite bodies such as other national academies, and winners of major prizes and medals such as the Nobel, the Crafoord, the Fields, the Kyoto, the Cosmos and others. I hope that future editions of this book will include such data. A reasonable conclusion from existing studies is that religious apologists might be wise to keep quieter than they habitually do on the subject of admired role models, at least where scientists are concerned.


Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism by Pippa Norris, Ronald Inglehart

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, Cass Sunstein, centre right, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, declining real wages, desegregation, Donald Trump, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, first-past-the-post, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, job automation, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, land reform, liberal world order, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, obamacare, open borders, open economy, post-industrial society, post-materialism, precariat, purchasing power parity, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, statistical model, stem cell, War on Poverty, white flight, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working-age population, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

President Trump speaking at the October 12, 2017 ‘Values Voters’ forum in Washington DC. www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/10/13/trump_how_ times_have_changed_but_now_theyre_changing_back_again.html. 51. Elizabeth Noelle-­Neuman. 1984. The Spiral of Silence: Public Opinion – Our Social Skin. Chicago: University of Chicago Press; J.C. Glynn, F.A. Hayes, and J. Shanahan. 1997. ‘Perceived support for one’s opinions and willingness to speak out: A meta-­analysis of survey studies on the “spiral of silence”.’ Public Opinion Quarterly 61 (3): 452–463. 52. Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris. 2003.Rising Tide: Gender Equality and Cultural Change around the World. New York: Cambridge University Press. 53. Michael Heaney. 2018. ‘Making protest great again.’ Contexts 17(1): 42–47. 54. John B. Judis. 2016. The Populist Explosion: How the Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics.

Economic factors were not consistently or strongly associated with voting turnout. Although subjective financial insecurity is a significant predictor of lower turnout, having experienced unemployment was not important, and those less satisfied with the state of the national economy were more likely to vote. Overall, the model explained about one-­fifth of the variation in the propensity to vote. Meta-­ analysis of the extensive research literature suggests that other factors reported in other studies may also play an important role, such as micro-­level political interest, media attention, and the strength of partisan identification, as well as macro-­level variations in electoral contexts, such as the type of Majoritarian or Proportional Representation electoral system, the closeness of the race, and the frequency of contests.53 Our analysis largely confirms the typical social profile of voters, but it indicates that the Interwar and Baby Boom generations are far, far more likely to participate in elections than the Millennials – to a considerably greater extent than previous research has indicated.

The Good Citizen: How a Younger Generation Is Reshaping American Politics. 2nd revised edn. Washington DC: CQ Press. 51. Gabriel Almond and Sidney Verba. 1963. The Civic Culture. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 52. Sidney Verba, Norman Nie, and Jae-­on Kim. 1978. Participation and Political Equality. New York: Cambridge University Press. 53. Kaat Smets and Carolien van Ham. 2013. ‘The embarrassment of riches? A meta-­analysis of individual-­level research on voter turnout.’ Electoral Studies 32 (2): 344–359. 54. Terri E. Givens. 2004. ‘The radical right gender gap.’ Comparative Political Studies 37 (1): 30–54. 55. Pippa Norris. 2005. Radical Right: Voters and Parties in the Electoral Market. New York: Cambridge University Press. 9 Party Fortunes and Electoral Rules In 2016, after the Brexit decision in June and then Trump’s victory in November, widespread fears arose about an unstoppable authoritarian-­populist surge at the polls, a domino effect disrupting European elections.


pages: 76 words: 20,238

The Great Stagnation by Tyler Cowen

Asian financial crisis, Bernie Madoff, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, income inequality, indoor plumbing, life extension, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Peter Thiel, RAND corporation, school choice, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, urban renewal

: The Effect of School Resources on Student Achievement and Adult Success, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1996, although many of the papers in that volume still are skeptical about the money-results connection. For one defense of educational spending and its connection to outcomes, see Larry V. Hedges, Richard D. Laine, and Rob Greenwald, “An Exchange: Part I: Does Money Matter? A Meta-Analysis of Studies of the Effects of Differential School Inputs on Student Outcomes,” Educational Researcher, April 1994, 23, 3, pp. 5-14. A response to this perspective can be found in the recent Eric A. Hanushek and Alfred A. Lindseth, Schoolhouses, Courthouses, and Statehouses: Solving the Funding-Achievement Puzzle in America’s Public Schools, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009. That same book, on p.298, offers the statistic on U.S. educational spending as a percentage of GDP and the comparison with Iceland.


pages: 262 words: 80,257

The Eureka Factor by John Kounios

active measures, Albert Einstein, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, Everything should be made as simple as possible, Flynn Effect, functional fixedness, Google Hangouts, impulse control, invention of the telephone, invention of the telescope, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Necker cube, pattern recognition, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, theory of mind, US Airways Flight 1549, Wall-E, William of Occam

But just because it’s possible to design an experiment that shows no incubation doesn’t mean that incubation, waking or otherwise, is a myth. It just means that incubation isn’t equally effective in all kinds of situations. More precision was needed, and two psychological scientists, Ut Na Sio and Thomas Ormerod, recently put the question to rest. They took the findings of all available prior studies of incubation and performed a statistical “meta-analysis” that essentially combined them all into one giant high-resolution study. Their central conclusion was that incubation is real—if a person takes a break from a problem and returns to it later, then the break can increase the likelihood that she will solve the problem (relative to uninterrupted work). FATIGUED BRAINS, AUTOMATIC THINKING, AND THE REAL UNCONSCIOUS MIND * * * Mental work can be draining.

The failure to solve it can sensitize you to hints around you that could trigger a solution by insight. Recent research suggests that sleep can heighten opportunistic assimilation of clues. The effects of sleep on prospective memory are described in M. K. Scullin and M. A. McDaniel, “Remembering to Execute a Goal: Sleep on It!,” Psychological Science 21 (2010): 1028–35. Waking Incubation 1 Sio and Ormerod’s meta-analysis of past incubation research is described in U. N. Sio and T. C. Ormerod, “Does Incubation Enhance Problem Solving?: A Meta-Analytic Review,” Psychological Bulletin 135 (2009): 94–120. Fatigued Brains, Automatic Thinking, and the Real Unconscious Mind 1 Research on “attention restoration theory” backs up the idea that the brain’s executive functions can be rejuvenated by even relatively short periods of rest.


pages: 315 words: 81,433

A Life Less Throwaway: The Lost Art of Buying for Life by Tara Button

clean water, collaborative consumption, David Attenborough, delayed gratification, Downton Abbey, hedonic treadmill, Internet of things, Kickstarter, life extension, Mark Zuckerberg, Mason jar, meta analysis, meta-analysis, period drama, Rana Plaza, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, thinkpad

Yeh, ‘Born to Shop’, American Demographics, June (1993), 34–9. 6.D. Hood, ‘Is Advertising to Kids Wrong? Marketers Respond’, Kidscreen, 15 November 2000. 7.Brian L. Wilcox, et al., Report of the APA Task Force on Advertising and Children, American Psychological Association, 20 February 2004, https://www.apa.org/pi/families/resources/advertising-children.pdf. 8.Raymond W. Preiss (ed.), Mass Media Effects Research: Advances through meta-analysis (Routledge, 2013). 9.J. L. Weicha, K. E. Peterson, D. S. Ludwig, et al., ‘When Children Eat What They Watch: Impact of television viewing on dietary intake in youth’, Archives of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, 60 (2006), 436–42. 10.Marvin E. Goldberg and Gerald J. Gorn, ‘Some Unintended Consequences of TV Advertising to Children’, Journal of Consumer Research, 5: 1 (1978), 22–9. 11.Cai and Zhao, 2010, cited in ‘Advertising to Children and Teens: Current Practices’, Common Sense Media, spring 2014, https://www.commonsensemedia.org/file/csm-advertisingresearchbrief-20141pdf/download. 12.http://www.commercialfreechildhood.org/sites/default/files/babies.pdf. 13.http://marketinglaw.osborneclarke.com/retailing/colgates-80-of-dentists-recommend-claim-under-fire/. 14.Bain & Company, Diamond Industry Report for Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC), 2011. 15.Haribo, Just Too Good, Quiet Storm, 27 January 2012. 16.Niels Van de Ven Marcel Zeelenberg and Rik Pieters, ‘The Envy Premium in Product Evaluation’, Journal of Consumer Research, 37: 6, 1 April 2011, 984–98, https://doi.org/10.1086/657239. 17.http://bgr.com/2015/06/17/samsung-advertising-fails-iphone/. 18.Tatiana Pilieva, First Kiss, 10 March 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?

Miller, Geoffrey, Must-Have: The hidden instincts behind everything we buy (Vintage, 2010). Moran, Caitlin, How to Be a Woman (Ebury Press, 2012). Papanek, Victor, Design for the Real World: Human ecology and social change (Academy Chicago Publishers, 1971, 1985). Pine, Professor Karen J., Mind What You Wear: The psychology of fashion (Amazon Media, 2014). Preiss, Raymond W. (ed.), Mass Media Effects Research: Advances through meta-analysis (Routledge, 2013). Quant, Mary, Quant on Quant (Cassell, 1966; V&A Publishing, 2012). Rubin, Gretchen, The Happiness Project (HarperCollins, 2009). Schor, Juliet B., Born to Buy: The commercialized child and the new consumer culture (Schribner, 2004). Sheldon, Roy, and Arens, Egmont, Consumer Engineering: A new technique for prosperity (Harper & Bros., 1932). Wallman, James, Stuffocation: Living more with less (Crux Publishing, 2013).


pages: 280 words: 85,091

The Wisdom of Psychopaths: What Saints, Spies, and Serial Killers Can Teach Us About Success by Kevin Dutton

Asperger Syndrome, Bernie Madoff, business climate, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, delayed gratification, epigenetics, Fellow of the Royal Society, G4S, impulse control, iterative process, John Nash: game theory, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nicholas Carr, Norman Mailer, place-making, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, theory of mind, ultimatum game

., including prevalence, motivation, and risk factors, see Debbie Wilson, Clare Sharp, and Alison Patterson, “Young People and Crime: Findings from the 2005 Offending, Crime and Justice Survey” (London: Home Office, 2005). 12 If the results of a recent study by Sara Konrath … Sara Konrath, Edward H. O’Brien, and Courtney Hsing, “Changes in Dispositional Empathy in American College Students over Time: A Meta-Analysis,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 15, no. 2 (2011): 180–98, doi:10.1177/1088868310377395. 13 the Interpersonal Reactivity Index … For the background to, and development of, the IRI, see Mark H. Davis, “A Multidimensional Approach to Individual Differences in Empathy,” JSAS Catalog of Selected Documents in Psychology 10, no. 85 (1980); and M. H. Davis, “Measuring Individual Differences in Empathy: Evidence for a Multidimensional Approach,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 44, no. 1 (1983): 113–26. 14 “College kids today are about 40 percent lower in empathy …” See “Today’s College Students More Likely to Lack Empathy,” U.S.

Davis, “Measuring Individual Differences in Empathy: Evidence for a Multidimensional Approach,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 44, no. 1 (1983): 113–26. 14 “College kids today are about 40 percent lower in empathy …” See “Today’s College Students More Likely to Lack Empathy,” U.S. News (Health), May 28, 2010, http://health.usnews.com/health-news/family-health/brain-and-behavior/articles/2010/05/28/todays-college-students-more-likely-to-lack-empathy. 15 More worrying still, according to Jean Twenge … See Jean M. Twenge, Sara Konrath, Joshua D. Foster, W. Keith Campbell, and Brad J. Bushman, “Egos Inflating Over Time: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis of the Narcissistic Personality Inventory,” Journal of Personality 76, no. 4 (2008a): 875–901, doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.2008.00507.x; Twenge et al., “Further Evidence of an Increase in Narcissism Among College Students,” Journal of Personality 76 (2008b): 919–27, doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.2008.00509.x. 16 Many people see the current group of college students … See U.S. News, “Today’s College Students More Likely to Lack Empathy.” 17 “People haven’t had the same exposure to traditional values …” See Thomas Harding, “Army Should Provide Moral Education for Troops to Stop Outrages,” The Telegraph, February 22, 2011, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/8341030/Army-should-provide-moral-education-for-troops-to-stop-outrages.html. 18 But the beginnings of an even more fundamental answer may lie … See Nicole K.


pages: 334 words: 82,041

How Did We Get Into This Mess?: Politics, Equality, Nature by George Monbiot

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Alfred Russel Wallace, bank run, bilateral investment treaty, Branko Milanovic, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, collective bargaining, Corn Laws, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, dematerialisation, demographic transition, drone strike, en.wikipedia.org, first-past-the-post, full employment, Gini coefficient, hedonic treadmill, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), investor state dispute settlement, invisible hand, land reform, land value tax, market fundamentalism, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mont Pelerin Society, moral panic, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, obamacare, oil shale / tar sands, old-boy network, peak oil, place-making, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit motive, rent-seeking, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, urban sprawl, wealth creators, World Values Survey

One paper found, after fifteen variables had been taken into account, a fourfold increase in homicides in US counties with the highest lead pollution.7 Another discovered that lead levels appeared to explain 90 per cent of the difference in rates of aggravated assault between various American cities.8 A study in Cincinnati finds that young people prosecuted for delinquency are four times more likely than the general population to have high levels of lead in their bones.9 A meta-analysis (a study of studies) of nineteen papers found no evidence that other factors could explain the correlation between exposure to lead and conduct problems among young people.10 Is it really so surprising that a highly potent nerve toxin causes behavioural change? The devastating and permanent impacts of even very low levels of lead on IQ have been known for many decades. Behavioural effects were first documented in 1943: infants who had tragically chewed the leaded paint off the railings of their cots were found, years after they had recovered from acute poisoning, to be highly disposed to aggression and violence.11 Lead poisoning in infancy, even at very low levels, impairs the development of those parts of the brain (the anterior cingulate cortex and prefrontal cortex) that regulate behaviour and mood.12 The effect is stronger in boys than in girls.

Mielke and Sammy Zahran, 2012, ‘The Urban Rise and Fall of Air Lead (Pb) and the Latent Surge and Retreat of Societal Violence’, Environment International, vol. 43, sciencedirect.com. 6Bureau of Justice, no date given, ‘Homicide Trends in the US’, bjs.ojp. usdoj.gov. 7Lynch and Stretesky, ‘The Relationship between Lead and Crime’. 8Mielke and Zahran, ‘The Urban Rise and Fall of Air Lead (Pb) and the Latent Surge and Retreat of Societal Violence’. 9Herbert L. Needleman et al., 2002, ‘Bone Lead Levels in Adjudicated Delinquents: A Case Control Study’, Neurotoxicology and Teratology, vol. 24. 10David K. Marcus, Jessica J. Fulton and Erin J. Clarke, 2010, ‘Lead and Conduct Problems: A Meta-Analysis’, Journal of Clinical Child and Adolescent Psychology, vol.39, no. 2, tandfonline.com. 11R. K. Byers and E. E. Lord, 1943, ‘Late Effects of Lead Poisoning on Mental Development’, American Journal of Diseases of Children, vol. 66. 12Kim M. Cecil et al., 2008, ‘Decreased Brain Volume in Adults with Childhood Lead Exposure’, Public Library of Science (PLOS) Medicine, vol. 5, no. 5, journals.plos.org. 13Joel T.


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The Four: How Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google Divided and Conquered the World by Scott Galloway

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Apple II, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Ben Horowitz, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, Bob Noyce, Brewster Kahle, business intelligence, California gold rush, cloud computing, commoditize, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, disintermediation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, follow your passion, future of journalism, future of work, global supply chain, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Internet Archive, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, Jony Ive, Khan Academy, longitudinal study, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, Oculus Rift, offshore financial centre, passive income, Peter Thiel, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Robert Mercer, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, supercomputer in your pocket, Tesla Model S, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, undersea cable, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, working poor, young professional

September 7, 2009. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/richard-alleyne/6146411/Humans-evolved-to-believe-in-God.html. 5. Winseman, Albert L. “Does More Educated Really = Less Religious?” Gallup. February 4, 2003. http://www.gallup.com/poll/7729/does-more-educated-really-less-religious.aspx. 6. Rathi, Akshat. “New meta-analysis checks the correlation between intelligence and faith.” Ars Technica. August 11, 2013. https://arstechnica.com/science/2013/08/new-meta-analysis-checks-the-correlation-between-intelligence-and-faith/. 7. Carey, Benedict. “Can Prayers Heal? Critics Say Studies Go Past Science’s Reach.” New York Times. October 10, 2004. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/10/health/can-prayers-heal-critics-say-studies-go-past-sciences-reach.html. 8. Poushter, Jacob. “2. Smartphone ownership rates skyrocket in many emerging economies, but digital divide remains.”


pages: 322 words: 84,580

The Economics of Belonging: A Radical Plan to Win Back the Left Behind and Achieve Prosperity for All by Martin Sandbu

"Robert Solow", Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, balance sheet recession, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, business cycle, call centre, capital controls, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, centre right, collective bargaining, debt deflation, deindustrialization, deskilling, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, intangible asset, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labour market flexibility, liquidity trap, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Martin Wolf, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mini-job, mortgage debt, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, pattern recognition, pink-collar, precariat, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Richard Florida, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, secular stagnation, social intelligence, TaskRabbit, total factor productivity, universal basic income, very high income, winner-take-all economy, working poor

For reasons to doubt Wood’s estimate, see Sandbu, “In Some Places.” 14. The evidence is reviewed by Elhanan Helpman, “Globalisation and Wage Inequality,” Journal of the British Academy 5 (July 2017): 125–62, https://doi.org/10.5871/jba/005.125. See also Philipp Heimberger, “Does Economic Globalisation Affect Income Inequality? A Meta-analysis” (Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Working Paper 165, October 2019), https://wiiw.ac.at/does-economic-globalisation-affect-income-inequality-a-meta-analysis-p-5044.html. This metastudy summarises 123 peer-reviewed articles on globalisation’s effect on income inequality. It finds a small positive relationship—smaller with trade integration than with financial globalisation—in both poor and rich countries, which suggests that any inequality effect of trade integration is similar to that caused by technological advances pushing up the need for skilled labour. 15.


pages: 468 words: 150,206

The Food Revolution: How Your Diet Can Help Save Your Life and Our World by John Robbins

Albert Einstein, carbon footprint, clean water, complexity theory, double helix, Exxon Valdez, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), laissez-faire capitalism, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, profit motive, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Rosa Parks, telemarketer

Poster presented at: American Public Health Association's 137th Annual Meeting and Exposition; November 9, 2009: Philadelphia, PA. xvi. Brekke HK, Ludvigsson J. Daily vegetable intake during pregnancy negatively associated to islet autoimmunity in the offspring-The ABIS study. Pediatr Diabetes. Advanced access published September 16, 2009. DOI: 10.1111 /j.1399-5448.2009.00563.x. xvii. Aune D, Ursin G, Veierod MB. Meat consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies. Diabetologia. 2009;52:2277-2287. xviii. Koh WP, Wu AH, Wang R, et al. Gender-specific associations between soy and risk of hip fracture in the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Ain J Epi- deiniol. 2009;170:901-909. xix. Kathy Freston, "Vegetarian is the new Prins," Huffington Post, Jan 18, 2007. xx. Livestock's Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Option, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Rome, 2006.

., "Mortality Pattern and Life Expectancy of Seventh-Day Adventists in the Netherlands," International Journal of Epidemiology 12 (1983):455-9; Chang-Claude, J., et al., "Mortality Pattern of German Vegetarians after 11 Years of Followup," Epidemiology 3 (1992):395-401. 13. Resnicow, et al., "Diet and Serum Lipids in Vegan Vegetarians." See also Messina and Messina, The Dietitian's Guide to Vegetarian Diets. 14. Anderson, J. W., et al., "Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Soy Protein Intake on Serum Lipids," New England Journal of Medicine 333 (1995):276-82. See also Carroll, K. K., "Dietary Protein in Relation to Plasma Cholesterol Levels and Atherosclerosis," Nutrition Review 36 (1978):1-5. 15. Ibid. 16. "Myths and Facts about Beef Production." 17. Barnard, Neal, The Power of Your Plate (Summertown, TN: Book Publishing Company, 1990), pp. 25-6. 18.

.," British Journal of Nutrition 69 (1993):3-19; Carlson, et al., "Vegan, Vegetarian and Omnivore Diets"; Hughes, et al., "Riboflavin Levels in the Diet and Breast Milk of Vegans and Omnivores," Proceedings of Nutritional Science 38 (1979):95A; Janelle, et al., "Nutrient Intakes and Eating Behavior Scores," 180-6. 36. Davis, et al., "Rebuttal." 37. Ibid. 38. Ibid. 39. Anderson J. W., et al., "Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Soy Protein Intake on Serum Lipids," New England Journal of Medicine 333 (1995):276-82; Sirtori, C. R., et al., "Double-Blind Study of the Addition of High-Protein Soya Milk vs. Cow's Milk to the Diet of Patients ... ," British Journal of Nutrition 82 (1999):91-6. 40. Jacobsen, B. K., et al., "Does High Soy Milk Intake Reduce Prostate Cancer Incidence?" Cancer Causes, Control 9 (1998):553-7. 41.


pages: 667 words: 149,811

Economic Dignity by Gene Sperling

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Cass Sunstein, collective bargaining, corporate governance, David Brooks, desegregation, Detroit bankruptcy, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Elon Musk, employer provided health coverage, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, full employment, gender pay gap, ghettoisation, gig economy, Gini coefficient, guest worker program, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, income inequality, invisible hand, job automation, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, late fees, liberal world order, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum wage unemployment, obamacare, offshore financial centre, payday loans, price discrimination, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, speech recognition, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Toyota Production System, traffic fines, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, War on Poverty, working poor, young professional, zero-sum game

Beyond a higher minimum wage or unionization or even free college, we need comprehensive investment throughout the pipeline from birth through college to attack the disadvantage of the accident of birth for those born into poverty. Indeed, “direct investments in the health and education of low-income children” all the way into their mid-twenties have the highest return on investment of government programs, with those programs often paying for themselves over time, according to a meta-analysis conducted by Harvard economists Nathaniel Hendren and Ben Sprung-Keyser.67 EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES MUST START EARLY Equal opportunities start with universal quality early education. As Isabel Sawhill and Jens Ludwig summarize, “Findings from a number of rigorously conducted studies of early childhood and elementary school programs suggest that intervening early, often, and effectively in the lives of disadvantaged children from birth to age ten may substantially improve their life chances for higher educational attainment and greater success in the labor market, thereby helping impoverished children avoid poverty in adulthood.”68 Nobel Prize–winning economist James Heckman and his coauthors famously found that every $1 investment in quality early learning initiatives returns $8.60, with the greatest gains coming from the most intensive investments.69 Yet despite the strong evidence that early education provides major long-term benefits and that the achievement gap starts in early childhood, the United States spends less than half of the OECD average for the size of our economy on childcare and early childhood education—only 0.3 percent of GDP.70 The result?

Patrick Oakford, Cara Brumfield, Casey Goldvale, Laura Tatum, Margaret diZerega, and Fred Patrick, “Investing in Futures: Economic and Fiscal Benefits of Postsecondary Education in Prison,” Vera Institute of Justice, January 2019, https://storage.googleapis.com/vera-web-assets/downloads/Publications/investing-in-futures-education-in-prison/legacy_downloads/investing-in-futures.pdf. 51. Robert Bozick, Jennifer Steele, Lois Davis, and Susan Turner, “Does Providing Inmates with Education Improve Post-Release Outcomes? A Meta-Analysis of Correctional Education Programs in the United States,” Journal of Experimental Criminology 14, no. 3 (2018): 389–428, https://perma.cc/NKE4-KDFK. 52. E. Ann Carson, “Prisoners in 2014,” U.S. Department of Justice, September 2015, https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p14.pdf. 53. Mike McPhate, “California Today: Firefighters, at Less Than $2 an Hour,” New York Times, September 1, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/01/us/california-today-firefighters-at-less-than-2-an-hour.html. 54.

David Cooper, Raising the Federal Minimum Wage to $15 by 2024 Would Lift Pay for Nearly 40 Million Workers (Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute, February 2019), 2, https://www.epi.org/publication/raising-the-federal-minimum-wage-to-15-by-2024-would-lift-pay-for-nearly-40-million-workers/. 15. David Card and Alan B. Krueger, “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,” American Economic Review 84, no. 4 (September 1994): 772, http://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/njmin-aer.pdf. 16. Cooper, Raising the Federal Minimum Wage, 16. In addition, economists Paul Wolfson and Dale Belman, in a meta-analysis of thirty-seven published studies on the minimum wage and job growth, concluded there is “no support for the proposition that the minimum wage has had an important effect on U.S. employment.” Paul J. Wolfson and Dale Belman, “15 Years of Research on U.S. Employment and the Minimum Wage,” abstract (Tuck School of Business Working Paper no. 2705499, Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, December 2016), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?


pages: 300 words: 65,976

The Gospel of Food: Everything You Think You Know About Food Is Wrong by Barry Glassner

Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Gary Taubes, haute cuisine, income inequality, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, placebo effect, profit motive, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Saturday Night Live, stem cell, twin studies, urban sprawl, working poor

., “Intake of Fatty Acids and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in a Cohort of Finnish Men,” American Journal of Epidemiology 145 (1997): 876–87; Uffe Ravnskov, “Diet–Heart Disease Hypothesis Is Wishful Thinking,” British Medical Journal 324 (2002): 238; Hester Vorster et al., “Egg Intake Does Not Change Plasma Lipoprotein and Coagulation Profiles,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55 (1992): 400–410; Paul N. Hopkins, “Effects of Dietary Cholesterol on Serum Cholesterol: A Meta-Analysis and Review,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55 (1992): 1060–70; Esther Lopez-Garcia, M. Schulze, et al., “Consumption of Trans Fatty Acids Is Related to Plasma Biomarkers of Inflammation and Endothelial Dysfunction,” Journal of Nutrition 135 (2005): 562–66. 21. Emily Green, “No—Less Is Less,” Los Angeles Times, May 10, 2000. 22. Emily Green, “The Low-Fat-Free, Diet-Food-Free Diet” and “Virtue with a Touch of Gloss,” Los Angeles Times, March 13 and July 24, 2002. 23.

On the PCRM, see, for example, Mary Carmichael, “Atkins Under Attack,” Newsweek, February 23, 2004; Joe Sharkey, “Perennial Foes Meet Again in a Battle of the Snack Bar,” New York Times, November 23, 2004; “Who’s Who in Animal Rights,” Observer (London), August 1, 2004. 10. See, for example, Nestle, Food Politics, part 4; “Vitamin A: ‘Magic Bullet’ That Can Backfire,” Tufts Nutrition Letter (February 2005); Edgar Miller, Roberto Pastor-Barriuso, et al., “Meta-Analysis: High-Dosage Vitamin E Supplementation May Increase All-Cause Mortality,” Annals of Internal Medicine 142 (2005): 37–46. 11. USDA Food Guidance System Public Comment Meeting, August 19, 2004: 101 (www.usda.gov/cnpp/pyramid-update/Comments/Oral%20Comm entsTranscript.pdf); Warren Belasco, “Futures Notes: The Meal-in-a-Pill,” Food and Foodways 8 (2000): 253–71. Except as otherwise noted, my analysis and quoted material below utilize the Belasco article.


pages: 340 words: 92,904

Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and the Fall of Cars by Samuel I. Schwartz

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, car-free, City Beautiful movement, collaborative consumption, congestion charging, crowdsourcing, desegregation, Enrique Peñalosa, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, invention of the wheel, lake wobegon effect, Loma Prieta earthquake, longitudinal study, Lyft, Masdar, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nate Silver, oil shock, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, self-driving car, skinny streets, smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, the built environment, the map is not the territory, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, walkable city, Wall-E, white flight, white picket fence, Works Progress Administration, Yogi Berra, Zipcar

MAPS 3 included two new parks, one of forty acres, the other thirty, connecting downtown Oklahoma City with the Oklahoma River; between twenty-five and thirty-six miles of new sidewalks; and nearly thirty-five miles of bike paths and walking trails. And, while I’m not sure this actually qualifies as active transportation, MAPS 3 upgraded the banks of the Oklahoma River to accommodate both rowing and kayaking facilities.j It also called for a state-of-the-art streetcar system running on five miles of rails through Oklahoma City’s downtown, which isn’t, strictly speaking, a form of active transportation. However, a meta-analysis—a research technique that combines multiple investigations, giving different statistical weights to each one depending on its findings—of fifty different studies found that one of the most important factors in walkability was connectivity: the ease with which walkers could get from one street to another. Streetcars that run regularly on routes perpendicular to walking routes make it a lot easier for pedestrians to get where they need to go.

“America’s Most Obese Cities.” Forbes, November 7, 2007. Schmitt, Angie. “The Importance of Driving to the U.S. Economy Started Waning in the 70s.” StreetsBlog USA, December 18, 2014. “ ———. The Koch Brothers’ War on Transit.” StreetsBlog USA, September 2014. Schwartz, Samuel I., and Shauna Tarshis Colasuonno. “VIM: Not Just Another Acronym.” ITE Journal (September 1982): 23–27. Seto, Karen C., et al. “A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion.” PLoS One 6, no. 8 (August 2011): e23777. Shoup, Donald C. “Free Parking or Free Markets.” Access: The Magazine of the University of California Transportation Center 38 (Spring 2011). ———. “The High Cost of Free Parking.” Journal of Planning Education and Research 17, no. 1 (Fall 1997): 201–216. Silberg, Gary, and Richard Wallace. Self-Driving Cars: The Next Revolution.


pages: 289 words: 87,137

What Patients Say, What Doctors Hear by Danielle Ofri

big-box store, Columbine, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, stem cell

Many things have been posited to improve adherence: nurse visits, social-work counseling, follow-up phone calls, electronic reminders, home delivery of medications, health coaches, economic incentives. Improved communication is certainly one of those things, but the devil for all of these interventions is in the magnitude of effect. The medical system needs to know how much bang there is for the buck before it chooses where to invest resources. So a team of scientists examined more than fifty years of research,11 using the technique of meta-analysis to combine the results of one hundred individual studies. (These studies encompassed a total of forty-five thousand patients.) If all of these data are taken together, patients of doctors with good communication skills are more than twice as likely to have good adherence to medical recommendations, compared with patients whose doctors had poor communication skills. That’s a 100 percent improvement, for those of you who prefer percentages.

., “The Effect of Treatment Expectation on Drug Efficacy: Imaging the Analgesic Benefit of the Opioid Remifentanil,” Science Translational Medicine 3 (2011). 10. M. R. DiMatteo, “Variations in Patients’ Adherence to Medical Recommendations: A Quantitative Review of 50 Years of Research,” Medical Care 42 (2004): 200–209. 11. K. B. Haskard Zolnierek and M. R. Dimatteo, “Physician Communication and Patient Adherence to Treatment: A Meta-Analysis,” Medical Care 47 (2009) 826–34. 12. S. H. McDaniel et al., “Physician Self-Disclosure in Primary Care Visits: Enough About You, What About Me?,” Archives of Internal Medicine 167 (2007): 1321–26. 13. D. S. Morse et al., “Enough About Me, Let’s Get Back to You: Physician Self-Disclosure During Primary Care Encounters,” Annals of Internal Medicine 149, no. 11 (2008): 835–37. 14. M. C. Beach et al., “Is Physician Self-Disclosure Related to Patient Evaluation of Office Visits?


pages: 295 words: 89,280

The Narcissist Next Door by Jeffrey Kluger

Albert Einstein, always be closing, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Bernie Madoff, Columbine, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, impulse control, Jony Ive, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, theory of mind, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, twin studies, Walter Mischel, zero-sum game

A whole lot of people are now moving up that scale, developing cases of subclinical, or lowercase-n, narcissism that may not shut down governments but may cause plenty of personal harm to the people around them. In 2008, a team of researchers published a study in the Journal of Personality looking at narcissism among college students over a twenty-seven-year period, from 1979 to 2006. Their paper was what’s known as a meta-analysis, a recrunching of the data from eighty-five separate narcissism studies covering a collective 16,475 subjects. All of the people surveyed had been administered the Narcissistic Personality Inventory (NPI), a forty-item questionnaire that requires subjects to choose between such essentially opposite statements as “I insist upon getting the respect that is due me” and “I usually get the respect that I deserve”; “Sometimes I tell good stories” and “Everybody likes to hear my stories”; “I can read people like a book” and “People are sometimes hard to understand”; “I am more capable than other people” and “There is a lot I can learn from other people.”

When children in the 1950s were administered the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI)—an exceedingly detailed survey that requires subjects to answer hundreds of true-false questions measuring personality on multiple dimensions—only 12 percent agreed with the statement “I am a special person.” By the late 1980s, the figure had exploded to 80 percent. Other studies in the 1990s showed similar high numbers of kids agreeing with such statements as “I have often met people who are supposed to be experts who are no better than I.” A 2012 meta-analysis of results from the American Freshman Survey, a personality inventory that has been administered to a collective nine million incoming college students in the United States over the past forty-seven years, has found that in every one of five different personality dimensions tested—drive to achieve, intellectual self-confidence, belief in leadership ability, social self-confidence and belief in writing ability—scores have been steadily on the rise, with up to 75 percent of kids believing they are above average.


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Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution by Francis Fukuyama

Albert Einstein, Asilomar, assortative mating, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, Columbine, demographic transition, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Flynn Effect, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, impulse control, life extension, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, presumed consent, Ray Kurzweil, Scientific racism, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), sexual politics, stem cell, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, Turing test, twin studies

., p. 10. 4 Kramer (1993); and Elizabeth Wurtzel, Prozac Nation: A Memoir (New York: Riverhead Books, 1994). 5 Kramer (1993), pp. 1–9. 6 Joseph Glenmullen, Prozac Backlash: Overcoming the Dangers of Prozac, Zoloft, Paxil, and Other Antidepressants with Safe, Effective Alternatives (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2000), p. 15. 7 Irving Kirsch and Guy Sapirstein, “Listening to Prozac but Hearing Placebo: A Meta-Analysis of Antidepressant Medication,” Prevention and Treatment 1 (1998); Larry E. Beutler, “Prozac and Placebo: There’s a Pony in There Somewhere,” Prevention and Treatment 1 (1998); and Seymour Fisher and Roger P. Greenberg, “Prescriptions for Happiness?,” Psychology Today 28 (1995): 32–38. 8 Peter R. Breggin and Ginger Ross Breggin, Talking Back to Prozac: What Doctors Won’t Tell You About Today’s Most Controversial Drug (New York: St.

New York: Free Press, 1985. Kevles, Daniel T., and Leroy Hood, eds. The Code of Codes: Scientific and Social Issues in the Human Genome Project. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1992. Kirkwood, Tom. Time of Our Lives: Why Ageing Is Neither Inevitable nor Necessary. London: Phoenix, 1999. Kirsch, Irving, and Guy Sapirstein. “Listening to Prozac but Hearing Placebo: A Meta-Analysis of Antidepressant Medication.” Prevention and Treatment I (1998). Klam, Matthew. “Experiencing Ecstasy.” The New York Times Magazine, January 21, 2001. Kolata, Gina. Clone: The Road to Dolly and the Path Ahead. New York: William Morrow, 1998. ———. “Genetic Defects Detected In Embryos Just Days Old.” The New York Times, September 24, 1992, p. A1. Kolehmainen, Sophia. “Human Cloning: Brave New Mistake.”


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Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts by Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson

Ayatollah Khomeini, cognitive dissonance, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Donald Trump, false memory syndrome, fear of failure, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, medical malpractice, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, Nelson Mandela, placebo effect, psychological pricing, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, social intelligence, telemarketer, the scientific method, trade route, transcontinental railway, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!

New York: Routledge. 8 On evidence that hypnosis is effective for a large number of acute and chronic pain conditions, see David R. Patterson and Mark P. Jensen (2003), "Hypnosis and Clinical Pain," Psychological Bulletin, 29, pp. 495–521. Hypnosis can also add to the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral techniques for losing weight, quitting smoking, and other behavior problems; see Irving Kirsch, Guy Montgomery, and Guy Sapirstein (1995), "Hypnosis as an Adjunct to Cognitive-Behavioral Psychotherapy: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 2, pp. 214–220. But the evidence is overwhelming that hypnosis is unreliable as a way of retrieving memories, which is why the American Psychological Association and the American Medical Association oppose the use of "hypnotically refreshed" testimony in courts of law. See Steven Jay Lynn, Timothy Lock, Elizabeth Loftus, Elisa Krackow, and Scott O.

Stephen Lindsay, Amina Memon, and Ray Bull (1995), "Psychotherapy and the Recovery of Memories of Childhood Sexual Abuse: U.S. and British Practitioners' Opinions, Practices, and Experiences," Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 63, pp. 426–437. More recent replications have found that the percentages have not changed appreciably. 34 The notion that childhood sexual abuse is a leading cause of eating disorders has not been supported by empirical evidence, according to a meta-analysis of the leading studies. See Eric Stice (2002), "Risk and Maintenance Factors for Eating Pathology: A Meta-Analytic Review," Psychological Bulletin, 128, pp. 825–848. 35 Richard J. McNally (2005), "Troubles in Traumatology," The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, 50, pp. 815–816. His quote is on p. 815. 36 John Briere made this statement at the 12th International Congress on Child Abuse and Neglect in 1998, in Auckland, New Zealand.


pages: 86 words: 27,453

Why We Work by Barry Schwartz

Atul Gawande, call centre, deskilling, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, if you build it, they will come, invisible hand, job satisfaction, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Silicon Valley, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Toyota Production System

Psychological Science, 15 (2004): 787–93. Hilfiker, D. “A Doctor’s View of Modern Medicine.” New York Times Magazine, February 23, 1986: 44–47, 58. Hirsch, F. Social Limits to Growth. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Press, 1976.* Hodson, R. Dignity at Work. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001.* Judge, T. A., R. F. Piccolo, N. P. Podsakoff, J. C. Shaw, and B. L. Rich. “The Relationship Between Pay and Job Satisfaction: A Meta-Analysis of the Literature.” Journal of Vocational Behavior, 77 (2010): 157–67. Jussim, L. “Self-fulfilling Prophecies: A Theoretical and Integrative Review.” Psychological Review, 93 (1986): 429–45. ——. “Teacher Expectations: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Perceptual Biases, and Accuracy.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57 (1989): 469–80. Jussim, L., J. Eccles, and S. Madon. “Social Perception, Social Stereotypes, and Teacher Expectations: Accuracy and the Quest for the Powerful Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.”


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A Short Guide to a Long Life by David B. Agus

Danny Hillis, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, lifelogging, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Murray Gell-Mann, personalized medicine, placebo effect, risk tolerance, the scientific method

For now, the following rules are relevant based on the data we have available that convincingly show the best practices for reducing your risk of disease. While it’s true that you can find single, unrepeated studies that contradict my ideas, that’s not how science works. When scientists weigh in on a topic, they can’t just rely on single studies that support their view. Instead, they have to consider all the studies on a topic and examine the results of each. That is exactly what a meta-analysis does. Hence, all of my prescriptions are rooted in studies that meet this gold standard. They always will be. And if the day comes when science uproots an established “truth” or does a complete 180 on a universally accepted fact, then I will welcome that new viewpoint with excitement and resolve (and a new rule). Ground Rule 2 The rules in this book are not meant to be blanket recommendations, especially when it comes to prescription medications.


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Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer by Duncan J. Watts

active measures, affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Black Swan, business cycle, butterfly effect, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, clockwork universe, cognitive dissonance, coherent worldview, collapse of Lehman Brothers, complexity theory, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, discovery of DNA, East Village, easy for humans, difficult for computers, edge city, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, framing effect, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Santayana, happiness index / gross national happiness, high batting average, hindsight bias, illegal immigration, industrial cluster, interest rate swap, invention of the printing press, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, lake wobegon effect, Laplace demon, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, medical malpractice, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, natural language processing, Netflix Prize, Network effects, oil shock, packet switching, pattern recognition, performance metric, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, planetary scale, prediction markets, pre–internet, RAND corporation, random walk, RFID, school choice, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, supply-chain management, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, Toyota Production System, ultimatum game, urban planning, Vincenzo Peruggia: Mona Lisa, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, X Prize

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything. New York: William Morrow & Co. Lewis, Michael. 2009. “The No-Stats All-Star.” New York Times Magazine, February 13. Lewis, Randall, and David Reiley. 2009. “Retail Advertising Works! Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo.” Working paper, Yahoo. Lodish, Leonard M., Magid Abraham, Stuart Kalmenson, et al. 1995a. “How TV Advertising Works: A Meta-analysis of 389 Real World Split Cable TV Advertising Experiments.” Journal of Marketing Research 32: 125–39. Lodish, Leonard M., Magid Abraham, Jeanne Livelsberger, et al. 1995b. “A Summary of Fifty-five In-Market Experimental Estimates of the Long-term Effect of TV Advertising.” Marketing Science 14 (3):133–40. Lohmann, Susanne. 1994. “The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91.”

Rice, Andrew. 2010. “Putting a Price on Words.” New York Times Magazine, May 10. Riding, Alan. 2005. “In Louvre, New Room with View of ‘Mona Lisa.’ ” New York Times, April 6. Rigney, Daniel. 2010. The Matthew Effect: How Advantage Begets Further Advantage. New York: Columbia University Press. Robbins, Jordan M., and Joachim I. Krueger. 2005. “Social Projection to Ingroups and Outgroups: A Review and Meta-analysis.” Personality and Social Psychology Review 9:32–47. Rogers, Everett M. 1995. Diffusion of Innovations, 4th ed. New York: Free Press. Roese, Neal J., and James M. Olson. 1996. “Counterfactuals, Causal Attributions, and the Hindsight Bias: A Conceptual Integration.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 32 (3):197–227. Rosen, Emmanuel. 2000. The Anatomy of Buzz: How to Create Word-of-Mouth Marketing.


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Loneliness: Human Nature and the Need for Social Connection by John T. Cacioppo

Alfred Russel Wallace, biofilm, butterfly effect, Celebration, Florida, corporate governance, delayed gratification, experimental subject, impulse control, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, longitudinal study, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, post-industrial society, Rodney Brooks, Ted Kaczynski, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, theory of mind, urban planning, urban renewal, Walter Mischel

A dozen years earlier, the epidemiologist Lisa Berkman had found that men and women with few ties to others were two to three times more likely to die in a nine-year follow-up period than those who had many more contacts. People with few social ties were at increased risk of dying from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular and circulatory disease, cancer, and a broader category that included respiratory, gastrointestinal, and all other causes of death.3 In 1988 an article in Science reviewed subsequent research, and that meta-analysis indicated that social isolation is on a par with high blood pressure, obesity, lack of exercise, or smoking as a risk factor for illness and early death.4 For some time the most common explanation for this sizeable effect has been the “social control hypothesis.” This theory holds that, in the absence of a spouse or close friends who might provide material help or a more positive influence, individuals may have a greater tendency to gain weight, to drink too much, or to skip exercise.

In a culture built around disconnection, the better move is to work that much harder to reach out to those with whom we share even the most superficial contact in the everyday world. Gatherings As an obligatorily gregarious species, we humans have a need not just to belong in an abstract sense but to actually get together. Congregating physically may actually play a role in an association found between religious observance and decreased morbidity and mortality. The sociologists Lynda H. Powell, Leila Shahabi, and Carl E. Thoresen conducted a meta-analysis of the extensive literature on religion and health, exploring nine different hypotheses that might account for the purportedly positive effects. Do religious people live longer and healthier lives because of the more conservative and healthful lifestyle that religion promotes? Is it the power of prayer? Or is it something about spirituality in itself that is affecting us at the cellular level?


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Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World by Peter H. Diamandis, Steven Kotler

3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Charles Lindbergh, cloud computing, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dematerialisation, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Exxon Valdez, fear of failure, Firefox, Galaxy Zoo, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, gravity well, ImageNet competition, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, John Harrison: Longitude, John Markoff, Jono Bacon, Just-in-time delivery, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Law of Accelerating Returns, Lean Startup, life extension, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, low earth orbit, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Mars Rover, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, minimum viable product, move fast and break things, Narrative Science, Netflix Prize, Network effects, Oculus Rift, optical character recognition, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, performance metric, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, rolodex, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, smart grid, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, superconnector, technoutopianism, telepresence, telepresence robot, Turing test, urban renewal, web application, X Prize, Y Combinator, zero-sum game

Each chapter will close with a very concrete how-to section, intended to allow anyone to finish the reading and jump immediately into the doing. To gather the advice in the how-to sections in part three, my team did exhaustive research, interviewing over a hundred top platform providers, the very people behind all of these crowd-powered companies, and speaking with top users, those exponential entrepreneurs who have already succeeded in leveraging crowd tools to tackle the bold. We also conducted a meta-analysis of all the various how-to articles online and in major reports, distilling key lessons and insights. Finally, during the same time this work was going on, I had the opportunity to implement much of this advice, putting it to the test in my own companies. Taken together, my hope is that these how-to sections serve as a comprehensive playbook, literally a user’s guide for going big, creating wealth, and impacting the world.

The final example is the ARKYD Space Telescope, a campaign run by my company Planetary Resources, which helped us start and forge an enormously passionate community of space enthusiasts—generating the kind of support that is absolutely required by this kind of future-forward project.15 One quick clarification: these examples have been kept intentionally short because they’ll again be followed by a lengthy how-to section—the real meat of this chapter. It’s here we’ll break down everything you need to know to get started, providing information drawn from four sources: a meta-analysis of all the major crowdfunding guides that have appeared in the past few years (twenty-six in total); lengthy interviews with the founders and CEOs of major crowdfunding companies such as Indiegogo, RocketHub, and Crowdfunder; lengthy interviews with entrepreneurs who have run incredibly successful campaigns (for example, Eric Migicovsky, creator of the Pebble Watch campaign); and finally, my own personal experience raising $1.5 million via crowdfunding, which at the time was the twenty-fifth most successful Kickstarter campaign ever.


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Reset: How to Restart Your Life and Get F.U. Money: The Unconventional Early Retirement Plan for Midlife Careerists Who Want to Be Happy by David Sawyer

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, asset allocation, beat the dealer, bitcoin, Cal Newport, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Attenborough, David Heinemeier Hansson, Desert Island Discs, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Thorp, Elon Musk, financial independence, follow your passion, gig economy, hiring and firing, index card, index fund, invention of the wheel, knowledge worker, loadsamoney, low skilled workers, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage debt, passive income, passive investing, Paul Samuelson, pension reform, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart meter, Snapchat, stakhanovite, Steve Jobs, Tim Cook: Apple, Vanguard fund, Y Combinator

It works. 10. Small to-do lists Keep your daily to-do lists small. Plonk the most important task at the top. You can only have one priority. 11. The importance of chit-chat The strongest predictor of how long you’ll live is your daily interactions with strangers. Not the quality of your close relationships (albeit that’s a close second), not whether you smoke, booze, exercise or are fat or thin. In a meta-analysis of 300,000-plus people[493], researchers at Brigham Young University found that the key to living a long life is social integration. Those chats with your neighbours, people at the school gate, the bloke serving you coffee at Starbucks, the guard on the train; it’s those daily interactions on which we place no emphasis that make a long life. How much, and with what positivity, you interact with people who don’t mean a great deal to you as you move through your day.

[489] “sometimes risky, undertaking”: “Adventure – Wikipedia.” toreset.me/489. [490] 1 Second Everyday app: “1SE.” toreset.me/490. [491] “ghosts haunting the lost landscapes of our childhood”: “THE WRITING LIFE: TALES OUT OF SCHOOL – The Washington Post.” 18 Mar. 1997, toreset.me/491. [492] The Pomodoro [productivity] Technique: “Pomodoro Technique – Wikipedia.” toreset.me/492. [493] In a meta-analysis of 300,000-plus people: “Social Ties Boost Survival by 50 Per Cent – Scientific American.” 28 Jul. 2010, toreset.me/493. [494] Watch Susan Pinker’s TED talk: “The secret to living longer may be your social life – TED.com.” 18 Aug. 2017, toreset.me/494. [495] businesses fail within the first 18 months, according to Bloomberg: “Five Reasons 8 Out Of 10 Businesses Fail – Forbes.” 12 Sep. 2013, toreset.me/495


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Every Patient Tells a Story by Lisa Sanders

data acquisition, discovery of penicillin, high batting average, index card, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, pattern recognition, Pepto Bismol, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan

How expertise develops in medicine: knowledge encapsulation and illness script formation. Med Ed. 2007;41:1133–39, Charlin B, et al. Scripts and clinical reasoning. Med Ed. 2007;41:1178–84. 29 One of the ways doctors are taught to think about disease: Mangruikar RS, et al. What is the role of the clinical “pearl.” Am J Med. 2002; 113(7):617–24. Ioannidis JPA, Lau J. Uncontrolled pearls, controlled evidence, meta-analysis and the individual patient. J Clin Epidemiolo. 1998;51(8):709–11. 31 Dr. André Lemierre, a physician in Paris, first described this disease in 1936: Lemierre A. On certain septicemias due to anaerobic organisms. Lancet. 1936;1:701–3. Centor RM. Should Lemierre’s syndrome re-emergence change pharyngitis guidelines? Manuscript from author. Singhal A, Kerstein MD. Lemierre’s syndrome. Medscape. 2001;94(9):886–87. http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/410830. 32 Like those presented to Fitzgerald: Hunter KM.

Association of chronic Lyme arthritis with HLA-DR4 and HLA-DR2 alleles. N Engl J Med. 1990;323:219–223. 178 They recruited one hundred residents: Shadick NA, Phillips CB, Logigian EL, Steere AC, Kaplan RF, Berardi VP, et al. The long-term clinical outcomes of Lyme disease. A population-based retrospective cohort study. Ann Int Med. 1994;121:560–567. 178 Other studies too have found: Cairn V, Godwin J. Post-Lyme borreliosis syndrome: a meta-analysis of reported symptoms. Int J Epi. 2005;34:1340–1345. 179 Researchers at Tufts Medical Center: Klempner MS, et al. Two controlled trials of antibiotic treatment in patients with persistent symptoms and a history of Lyme disease. N Engl J Med. 2001;345:85–92. 179 Two other rigorous trials: Krupps LB, et al. Study and treatment of post Lyme disease. Neurology. 2003;60:1923–1930. Fallon BA. A randomized, placebo-controlled trial of repeated IV antibiotic therapy for Lyme encephalopathy.


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Food Allergy: Adverse Reactions to Foods and Food Additives by Dean D. Metcalfe

active measures, Albert Einstein, bioinformatics, epigenetics, hygiene hypothesis, impulse control, life extension, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, pattern recognition, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, statistical model, stem cell, twin studies

Maternal and/or infant elimination diets Studies attempting to prevent CM and egg allergies by maternal CM and egg avoidance during late pregnancy have failed to show a reduction in food allergy, any other atopic disorder, or sensitization from birth through age 5 years. Additionally, maternal weight gain during pregnancy was negatively affected by these dietary restrictions. A recent Cochrane meta-analysis [51] confirmed the above findings, and the authors concluded that the prescription of an antigen avoidance diet to a high-risk woman during pregnancy is unlikely to substantially reduce the child’s risk of atopic diseases, and such a diet may adversely affect maternal or fetal nutrition, or both. Another recent review of this issue by Muraro et al. [52] stated that there is no conclusive evidence for a protective effect of a maternal exclusion diet during pregnancy.

Breast-feeding For quite some time, it has been suggested that the presence of food antigens in breast milk might sensitize an infant if the mother does not avoid these foods in her diet during lactation. However, results of studies during the 1980s and 1990s examining this hypothesis have been contradictory. These contradictory studies, along with consideration of many others, led both a Cochrane analysis [51] and a recent meta-analysis [52] to conclude that while the prescription of an antigen avoidance diet to high-risk women during lactation may reduce the child’s risk of developing AD, there is insufficient conclusive evidence to show a preventative effect of maternal diet during lactation on atopic disease in childhood. Furthermore, one cannot state for certain whether food antigens in breast milk will induce allergy or be immunoprotective in any given recipient [53].

Some trends can be observed and conclusions drawn from a review of the literature on the effects of human milk and breast-feeding on AD and food allergy. Of the many studies regarding the association between breast-feeding and AD, some have shown a protective effect [54,55], whereas others have shown a lack 114 Chapter 9 of association [56], and some have even shown a positive association [57]. To assist in sorting out the discrepancies in the above studies, Gdalevich et al. [58] performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies in developed countries that compared breast-feeding with CM formula feeding on the development of AD. Statistical analysis revealed a significant overall protective effect of breastfeeding for 3 months on AD, with an OR of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.52–0.88) in the cohort as a whole. The effect was even stronger in children with a family history of atopy (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.41–0.92).


She Has Her Mother's Laugh by Carl Zimmer

23andMe, agricultural Revolution, clean water, clockwatching, cloud computing, dark matter, discovery of DNA, double helix, Drosophila, Elon Musk, epigenetics, Fellow of the Royal Society, Flynn Effect, friendly fire, Gary Taubes, germ theory of disease, Isaac Newton, longitudinal study, medical bankruptcy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, moral panic, mouse model, New Journalism, out of africa, phenotype, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Scientific racism, statistical model, stem cell, twin studies

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Griffith, Malachi, Christopher A. Miller, Obi L. Griffith, Kilannin Krysiak, Zachary L. Skidmore, Avinash Ramu, Jason R. Walker, and others. 2015. “Optimizing Cancer Genome Sequencing and Analysis.” Cell Systems 1:210–23. Grognet, Pierre, Hervé Lalucque, Fabienne Malagnac, and Philippe Silar. 2014. “Genes That Bias Mendelian Segregation.” PLOS Genetics 10:e1004387. Grudnik, Jennifer L., and John H. Kranzler. 2001. “Meta-Analysis of the Relationship Between Intelligence and Inspection Time.” Intelligence 29:523–35. Grüneberg, Hans. 1967. “Sex-linked Genes in Man and the Lyon Hypothesis.” Annals of Human Genetics 30:239–57. Guevara-Aguirre, Jaime, Priya Balasubramanian, Marco Guevara-Aguirre, Min Wei, Federica Madia, Chia-Wei Cheng, David Hwang, and others. 2011. “Growth Hormone Receptor Deficiency Is Associated with a Major Reduction in Pro-Aging Signaling, Cancer, and Diabetes in Humans.”

Science 341:6141, 1237758. ———, Gilad D. Evrony, Xuyu Cai, Princess Christina Elhosary, Rameen Beroukhim, Maria K. Lehtinen, L. Benjamin Hills, and others. 2012. “Somatic Activation of AKT3 Causes Hemispheric Developmental Brain Malformations.” Neuron 74:41–48. Polderman, Tinca J. C., Beben Benyamin, Christiaan A. de Leeuw, Patrick F. Sullivan, Arjen van Bochoven, Peter M. Visscher, and Danielle Posthuma. 2015. “Meta-Analysis of the Heritability of Human Traits Based on Fifty Years of Twin Studies.” Nature Genetics 47:702–09. Poliakov, Léon. 1974. The Aryan Myth: A History of Racist and Nationalist Ideas in Europe. New York: Basic Books. Politi, Yoav, Liron Gal, Yossi Kalifa, Liat Ravid, Zvulun Elazar, and Eli Arama. 2014. “Paternal Mitochondrial Destruction after Fertilization Is Mediated by a Common Endocytic and Autophagic Pathway in Drosophila.”


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The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined by Steven Pinker

1960s counterculture, affirmative action, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, British Empire, Broken windows theory, business cycle, California gold rush, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, clean water, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, crack epidemic, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, Doomsday Clock, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, experimental subject, facts on the ground, failed state, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fudge factor, full employment, George Santayana, ghettoisation, Gini coefficient, global village, Henri Poincaré, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, impulse control, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, long peace, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Marshall McLuhan, mass incarceration, McMansion, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Singer: altruism, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, Republic of Letters, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, security theater, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, twin studies, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

., 1997; van Beijsterveldt, Bartels, Hudziak, & Boomsma, 2003; van den Oord, Boomsma, & Verhulst, 1994. 141. Aggression in separated twins: Bouchard & McGue, 2003, table 6. 142. Aggression in adoptees: van den Oord et al., 1994; see also Rhee & Waldman, 2007. 143. Aggression in twins: Cloninger & Gottesman, 1987; Eley et al., 1999; Ligthart et al., 2005; Rhee & Waldman, 2007; Slutske et al., 1997; van Beijsterveldt et al., 2003. 144. Meta-analysis of behavioral genetics of aggression: Rhee & Waldman, 2007. 145. Violent crime in twins: Cloninger & Gottesman, 1987. 146. Pedomorphy and self-domestication: Wrangham, 2009b; Wrangham & Pilbeam, 2001. 147. Heritability of gray matter distribution: Thompson et al., 2001. 148. Heritability of white matter connectivity: Chiang et al., 2009. 149. Making voles monogamous: McGraw & Young, 2010. 150.

., & Schmitt, D. P. 1993. Sexual strategies theory: An evolutionary perspective on human mating. Psychological Review, 100, 204–32. Bussman, M., & Schneider, G. 2007. When globalization discontent turns violent: Foreign economic liberalization and internal war. International Studies Quarterly, 51, 79–97. Byrnes, J. P., Miller, D. C., & Schafer, W. D. 1999. Gender differences in risk-taking: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 125, 367–83. C-SPAN. 2010. C-SPAN 2009 Historians presidential leadership survey. http://legacy.c-span.org/PresidentialSurvey/presidential-leadership-survey.aspx. Cairns, R. B., Gariépy, J.-L., & Hood, K. E. 1990. Development, microevolution, and social behavior. Psychological Review, 97, 49–65. Capital Punishment U.K. 2004. The end of capital punishment in Europe. http://www.capitalpunishmentuk.org/europe.html.

How thick is blood? Ethnic & Racial Studies, 22, 789–820. Gilad, Y. 2002. Evidence for positive selection and population structure at the human MAO-A gene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99, 862–67. Gilbert, S. J., Spengler, S., Simons, J. S., Steele, J. D., Lawrie, S. M., Frith, C. D., & Burgess, P. W. 2006. Functional specialization within rostral prefrontal cortex (Area 10): A meta-analysis. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 18, 932–48. Gilligan, C. 1982. In a different voice: Psychological theory and women’s development. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Ginges, J., & Atran, S. 2008. Humiliation and the inertia effect: Implications for understanding violence and compromise in intractable intergroup conflicts. Journal of Cognition & Culture, 8, 281–94. Ginges, J., Atran, S., Medin, D., & Shikaki, K. 2007.


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Is the Internet Changing the Way You Think?: The Net's Impact on Our Minds and Future by John Brockman

A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Asperger Syndrome, availability heuristic, Benoit Mandelbrot, biofilm, Black Swan, British Empire, conceptual framework, corporate governance, Danny Hillis, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Emanuel Derman, epigenetics, Flynn Effect, Frank Gehry, Google Earth, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, index card, information retrieval, Internet Archive, invention of writing, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, lifelogging, lone genius, loss aversion, mandelbrot fractal, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Journalism, Nicholas Carr, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, peer-to-peer, Ponzi scheme, pre–internet, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, Skype, slashdot, smart grid, social graph, social software, social web, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, telepresence, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, trade route, upwardly mobile, Vernor Vinge, Whole Earth Catalog, X Prize

The tools for research and communication about this research developed, along with new thinking about mind-machine interaction, the future of education, the impact of the Internet on texts and writing, and the issues of filtering, relevance, learning, and memory. And then somehow the creature became autonomous, an ordinary part of our universe. We are no longer surprised, no longer engaged in so much meta-analysis. We are dependent. Some of us are addicted to this marvelous tool, this multifaceted medium that is—as predicted even ten years ago—concentrating all of communication, knowledge, entertainment, business. I, like many of us, spend so many hours before a computer screen, typing away, even when surrounded by countless books, that it is hard to say exactly how the Internet has affected me. The Internet is becoming as ordinary as the telephone.

We can finally harness the law of large numbers to improve our decision making: the larger the sample of peer ratings, the more accurate the average. As ratings accumulate, margins of error shrink, confidence intervals get tighter, and estimates improve. Ordinary consumers have access to better product rating data than market researchers could hope to collect. Online peer ratings empower us to be evidence-based about almost all our decisions. For most goods and services—and, indeed, most domains of life—they offer a kind of informal meta-analysis, an aggregation of data across all the analyses already performed by like-minded consumers. Judgment becomes socially distributed and statistical rather than individual and anecdotal. Rational-choice economists might argue that sales figures are a better indication than online ratings of real consumer preferences, insofar as people vote with their dollars to reveal their preferences. This ignores the problem of buyer’s remorse: Consumers buy many things that they find disappointing.


pages: 403 words: 106,707

Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance by Alex Hutchinson

airport security, animal electricity, experimental subject, Fellow of the Royal Society, Frederick Winslow Taylor, glass ceiling, Iridium satellite, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Stanford marshmallow experiment, technoutopianism, Walter Mischel

Sure enough, being hydrated improved performance: in the three trials where the cyclists were forced to drink less than they’d chosen to in the first trial, they were slower than the three higher-hydration trials. But there was no further improvement when they drank more than they had chosen to in the first trial. Avoiding thirst, rather than avoiding dehydration, seems to be the most important key to performance. This controversial claim was mostly dismissed when it was first published, but the debate has gradually shifted in the years since then. A 2013 meta-analysis in the British Journal of Sports Medicine concluded than any losses of less than 4 percent are “very unlikely to impair [endurance performance] under real-world exercise conditions,” and concluded that athletes should be encouraged to drink according to thirst.31 Still, as compelling as these lines of evidence are, focusing on the details of plasma osmolality and total body water misses a larger point that has recurred throughout this book: the importance of any underlying physiological signal depends in part on how your brain receives and interprets it.

Reid Coolsaet was wide awake: I wrote about Coolsaet’s marathon in “The Race Against Time,” Walrus, July/August 2012. 2. a manual-laborer-turned-runner named Joseph Nderitu: Alex Hutchinson, “Any Race, Every Weekend,” Ottawa Citizen, May 28, 2006. 3. he noticed that Kenyan and Western runners had markedly different mentalities: “Trampled Under Foot,” www.reidcoolsaet.com, February 9, 2013. 4. Shona Halson and David Martin: Shona Halson and David Martin, “Lying to Win—Placebos and Sport Science,” International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance 8 (2013): 597–99. 5. purported benefits of a post-workout ice bath: J. Leeder, “Cold Water Immersion and Recovery from Strenuous Exercise: A Meta-Analysis,” British Journal of Sports Medicine 46, no. 4 (2012). 6. a “placebo-controlled” ice bath: J. R. Broatch et al., “Postexercise Cold Water Immersion Benefits Are Not Greater than the Placebo Effect,” Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise 46, no. 11 (2014). 7. paradigm-altering demonstration: J. D. Levine et al., “The Mechanism of Placebo Analgesia,” Lancet 2, no. 8091 (1978). 8. placebo-driven expectations: Sumathi Reddy, “Why Placebos Really Work: The Latest Science,” Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2016. 9. treat irritable bowel syndrome: Kathryn Hall et al., “Catechol-O-Methyltransferase val158met Polymorphism Predicts Placebo Effect in Irritable Bowel Syndrome,” PLoS One 7, no. 10 (2012). 10. cyclists rode 1.3 percent faster: C.


pages: 519 words: 104,396

Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (And How to Take Advantage of It) by William Poundstone

availability heuristic, Cass Sunstein, collective bargaining, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, East Village, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, equal pay for equal work, experimental economics, experimental subject, feminist movement, game design, German hyperinflation, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, index card, invisible hand, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, laissez-faire capitalism, Landlord’s Game, loss aversion, market bubble, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nash equilibrium, new economy, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, Philip Mirowski, Potemkin village, price anchoring, price discrimination, psychological pricing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, random walk, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, rolodex, social intelligence, starchitect, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, ultimatum game, working poor

Neale (1987). “Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate: An Anchoring-and-Adjustment Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 84, 87–93. Oosterbeek, Hessel, Randolph Sloof, and Gijs van de Kuilen (2004). “Cultural Differences in Ultimatum Game Experiments: Evidence from a Meta-analysis.” Experimental Economics 7, 171–88. Orr, Dan, and Chris Guthrie (2006). “Anchoring, Information, Expertise, and Negotiation: New Insights from Meta-Analysis.” Ohio State Journal on Dispute Resolution 21, 597–628. Available at ssrn.com/abstract=900152. Phillips, Lawrence D., and Detlof von Winterfeldt (2006). “Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards to Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.” London School of Economics and Political Science, working paper LSEOR 06.86.


The Targeter: My Life in the CIA, Hunting Terrorists and Challenging the White House by Nada Bakos

Chelsea Manning, Edward Snowden, fear of failure, feminist movement, meta analysis, meta-analysis, performance metric, place-making, RAND corporation, WikiLeaks

Clearly, in that era, women on the operations side faced steep hurdles in working their way up to the senior ranks. In the DI, thankfully, people were mostly judged by the substantive knowledge they brought to their work and their ability to do their jobs. Looking back at my time in the CIA, I think the simplest difference in approaches comes from the way women tend to balance risk and reward. I know this veers toward armchair theorizing, but there’s a scientific underpinning for it. In a 1999 meta-analysis of 150 studies comparing risk-taking tendencies of males and females, entitled “Gender Differences in Risk Taking,” researchers James Byrnes, David Miller, and William Schafer concluded that “clearly… male participants are more likely to take risks than female participants.” Other studies built upon those findings, including the 2006 “Gender, Financial Risk, and Probability Weights,” by Swiss researchers Helga Fehr-Duda, Manuele de Gennaro, and Renate Schubert, which found that females weigh probabilities differently from males and that women are more pessimistic about potential significant gains.

Broder, “CIA Will Settle Women Agents’ Bias Lawsuit,” Los Angeles Times, March 30, 1995. 10. “pervasive culture of sexual discrimination”: Ibid. 11. $940,000 in back pay and granting twenty-five retroactive promotions: Ibid. 12. “a fantasy of a different sort”: Slatkin, “Executive Director Speech.” 13. “male participants are more likely to take risks”: James Byrnes, David Miller, and William Schafer, “Gender Differences in Risk Taking: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 125, no. 3 (May 1999): 377. 14. “may indeed lead to higher risk aversion”: Helga Fehr-Duda, Manuele de Gennaro, and Renate Schubert, “Gender, Financial Risk, and Probability Weights,” Theory and Decision 60, no. 2 (May 2006). 15. “Armed and Dangerous”: United States Department of State Bureau of Intelligence and Research, “The Wandering Mujahidin: Armed and Dangerous,” August 21–22, 1993, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/files/2008/03/wandering_mujahidin.pdf. 16.


Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David Aronson

Albert Einstein, Andrew Wiles, asset allocation, availability heuristic, backtesting, Black Swan, butter production in bangladesh, buy and hold, capital asset pricing model, cognitive dissonance, compound rate of return, computerized trading, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, distributed generation, Elliott wave, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, hindsight bias, index fund, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Long Term Capital Management, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, p-value, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, price stability, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ralph Nelson Elliott, random walk, retrograde motion, revision control, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, riskless arbitrage, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Sharpe ratio, short selling, source of truth, statistical model, stocks for the long run, systematic trading, the scientific method, transfer pricing, unbiased observer, yield curve, Yogi Berra

The seminal study comparing the accuracy of subjective predictions (expert intuition) to predictions based on statistical rules (models) was done by Paul Meehl33 in 1954. It was a review of prior studies, known as a meta-analysis, which examined 20 studies that had compared the subjective diagnoses of psychologists and psychiatrists with those produced by linear statistical models. The studies covered the prediction of academic success, the likelihood of criminal recidivism, and predicting the outcomes of electrical shock therapy. In each case, the experts rendered a judgment by evaluating a multitude of variables in a subjective manner. “In all studies, the statistical model provided more accurate predictions or the two methods tied.”34 A subsequent study by Sawyer35 was a meta analysis of 45 studies. “Again, there was not a single study in which clinical global judgment was superior to the statistical prediction (termed ‘mechanical combination’ by Sawyer).”36 Sawyer’s investigation is noteworthy because he considered studies in which the human expert was allowed access to information that was not considered by the statistical model, and yet the model was still superior.

The studies include prediction of academic performance, life-expectancy of cancer patients, changes in stock prices, psychological diagnosis, bankruptcy, student ratings of teacher effectiveness, sales performance, and IQ based on Rorschach test. The average correlation between prediction and outcome for expert judgment was 0.33 on a scale of 0 to 1.0. The average correlation for the objective model was 0.64. In a meta-analysis of over 100 peer-reviewed studies comparing expert judgment with statistical rules, statistical rules were more accurate in 96 percent of the cases. See J.A. Swets, R.M. Dawes, and J. Monahan, “Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions,” Psychological Science in the Public Interest 1 (2000). 482 NOTES 27. If each variable is assigned a value of 0 for low and 1 for high, the possible values of a sum are: 0 (all have values of zero), 1 (one variable has a value of 1 and two are zero), 2 ( two variables have values of 1 and one has a value of zero), and 3 ( all have values of 1). 28.


pages: 244 words: 37,906

Spiralizer Cookbook by Rockridge Press

meta analysis, meta-analysis

Accessed March 12, 2015. http://www.celiaccentral.org/non-celiac-gluten-sensitivity/introduction-and-definitions. “The New Way to Make a Homemade (Healthy!) Pasta Dinner.” Good Housekeeping. (Accessed Sep. 30, 2014). http://www.goodhousekeeping.com/product-reviews/test-kitchen-blog/spiralizer-spiraled-vegetables. Santos, F. L., S. S. Esteves, A. da Costa Pereira, W. S. Yancy Jr., and J. P. L. Nunes. “Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials of the Effects of Low Carbohydrate Diets on Cardiovascular Risk Factors.” Obesity Reviews (July 2012), doi/10.1111/j.1467-789X.2012.01021.x/ “Spiral Slicers (Spiralizers).” Cook’s Illustrated. Accessed March 12, 2015. http://www.cooksillustrated.com/equipment_reviews/1540-spiral-slicers-spiralizers. WebMD. “Celiac Disease Treatment.” Accessed March 12, 2015. http://www.webmd.com/digestive-disorders/celiac-disease/celiac-disease-treatment


pages: 412 words: 115,266

The Moral Landscape: How Science Can Determine Human Values by Sam Harris

Albert Einstein, banking crisis, Bayesian statistics, cognitive bias, end world poverty, endowment effect, energy security, experimental subject, framing effect, hindsight bias, impulse control, John Nash: game theory, longitudinal study, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, pattern recognition, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, scientific worldview, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, ultimatum game, World Values Survey

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Northoff, G., Heinzel, A., Bermpohl, F., Niese, R., Pfennig, A., Pascual-Leone, A., et al. (2004). Reciprocal modulation and attenuation in the prefrontal cortex: An fMRI study on emotional-cognitive interaction. Hum Brain Mapp, 21 (3), 202–212. Northoff, G., Heinzel, A., de Greck, M., Bermpohl, F., Dobrowolny, H., & Panksepp, J. (2006). Self-referential processing in our brain—a meta-analysis of imaging studies on the self. Neuroimage, 31 (1), 440–457. Nowak, M. A., & Sigmund, K. (2005). Evolution of indirect reciprocity. Nature, 437 (7063), 1291–1298. Nozick, R. (1974). Anarchy, state, and utopia. New York: Basic Books. Nunez, J. M., Casey, B. J., Egner, T., Hare, T., & Hirsch, J. (2005). Intentional false responding shares neural substrates with response conflict and cognitive control.

, & West, R. F. (2000). Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 645–726. Stark, R. (2001). One true God: Historical consequences of monotheism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Steele, J. D., & Lawrie, S. M. (2004). Segregation of cognitive and emotional function in the prefrontal cortex: A stereotactic meta-analysis. Neuroimage, 21 (3), 868–875. Stenger, V. A. (2009). The new atheism: Taking a stand for science and reason. New York: Prometheus Books. Stewart, P. (2008, May 29). Vatican says it will excommunicate women priests. Reuters. Stoller, S. E., & Wolpe, P. R. (2007). Emerging neurotechnologies for lie detection and the Fifth Amendment. American Journal of Law & Medicine, 33, 359–375. Stone, M.


pages: 390 words: 115,769

Healthy at 100: The Scientifically Proven Secrets of the World's Healthiest and Longest-Lived Peoples by John Robbins

clean water, collective bargaining, Community Supported Agriculture, Donald Trump, happiness index / gross national happiness, illegal immigration, indoor plumbing, land reform, life extension, lifelogging, longitudinal study, Maui Hawaii, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, randomized controlled trial, Silicon Valley, telemarketer

Here is a table showing the percentage of nutrients lost when whole wheat flour is refined into white flour: Protein: 25 percent lost Fiber: 95 percent lost Calcium: 56 percent lost Copper: 62 percent lost Iron: 84 percent lost Manganese: 82 percent lost Phosphorus: 69 percent lost Potassium: 74 percent lost Selenium: 52 percent lost Zinc: 76 percent lost Vitamin B1: 73 percent lost Vitamin B2: 81 percent lost Vitamin B3: 80 percent lost Vitamin B5: 56 percent lost Vitamin B6: 87 percent lost Folate: 59 percent lost Vitamin E: 95 percent lost Many people think that when white flour is “enriched” with added vitamins, the nutritional value is restored. But this is far from true. Of the twenty-five nutrients that are removed when whole wheat flour is milled into white flour, only five nutrients are chemically replaced when the white flour is enriched. The importance of whole grains in cancer prevention was vividly illustrated in a 2001 report published in the Journal of the American Dietetic Association.3 The authors conducted a “meta-analysis,” reviewing the entire body of available scientific literature on whole grains and cancer risk. Here’s what they found: Of forty-five studies on whole grains and cancer, forty-three showed whole-grain intake to provide significant protection from several cancers. Specifically, a protective association was seen in 9 of 10 mentions of studies on colorectal cancers and polyps, 7 of 7 mentions of gastric cancer, 6 of 6 mentions of other digestive tract cancers, 7 of 7 mentions of hormone-related cancers (breast, prostate, ovarian, and uterine cancer), 4 of 4 mentions of pancreatic cancer, and 10 of 11 mentions of other cancers.

Bradley J. Willcox, D. Craig Willcox, and Makoto Suzuki, The Okinawa Program: Learn the Secrets to Health and Longevity (Three Rivers Press, 2001), pp. 43, 71. 2. Ibid. p. 69. 3. Joanne Slavin et al., “The Role of Whole Grains in Disease Prevention,” Journal of the American Dietetic Association 2001, 101:780–85. See also D. R. Jacobs et al., “Whole-grain intake and cancer: An expanded review and meta-analysis,” Nutrition and Cancer 1998, 30:85–96. 4. D. R. Jacobs et al., “Is whole-grain intake associated with reduced total and cause-specific death rates in older women? The Iowa Women’s Health Study,” American Journal of Public Health 1999, 89(3):322–29. See also S. Liu, “Intake of refined carbohydrates and whole grain foods in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary heart disease,” Journal of the American College of Nutrition 2002, 21(4):298–306; D.


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The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley

"Robert Solow", affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, AltaVista, altcoin, anthropic principle, anti-communist, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Columbian Exchange, computer age, Corn Laws, cosmological constant, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, endogenous growth, epigenetics, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, falling living standards, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, George Santayana, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, hydraulic fracturing, imperial preference, income per capita, indoor plumbing, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, land reform, Lao Tzu, long peace, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, Necker cube, obamacare, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, price mechanism, profit motive, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, rising living standards,