cuban missile crisis

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pages: 631 words: 171,391

One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War by Michael Dobbs


air freight, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doomsday Clock, global village, Google Earth, kremlinology, Marshall McLuhan, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, stakhanovite, yellow journalism

The most sensible approach for the researcher is to find multiple sources, and use documentary evidence to corroborate oral history, and vice versa. The starting point for my archival research was the extensive Cuban missile crisis documentation assembled by the National Security Archive, an indispensable reference source for contemporary historians. The Archive, under the direction of Tom Blanton, has taken the lead in aggressively using the Freedom of Information Act to pry historical documents out of a frequently recalcitrant U.S. bureaucracy. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, it fought a landmark court battle in 1988 to obtain access to a collection compiled by the State Department historian. In cooperation with academic researchers, the NSA has also helped organize a series of important conferences on the missile crisis, including one in Moscow in 1992 and others in Havana in 1992 and 2002.

Col. Sergei Karlov, official historian, Peter the Great Military Academy of Strategic Rocket Forces (RSVN), May 2006. 28 Military statisticians later estimated: Ibid. 28 "barreled gas oil": NSA Cuban missile crisis release, October 1998. 28 McNamara estimated Soviet troop: JFK2, 606. The CIA had estimated 3,000 Soviet "technicians" in Cuba on September 4. By November 19, they increased the estimate to 12,000–16,000. In January 1963, they concluded retrospectively that there were 22,000 Soviet troops in Cuba at the peak of the crisis. See Raymond L. Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1989), 35. 28 "For the sake of the revolution": Author's interview with Capt. Oleg Dobrochinsky, Moscow, July 2004. 29 citing a "traffic accident": Final report by Maj.

: WP, October 23, 1962, A1; Beschloss, 482. 42 "This is not a war": Fursenko and Naftali, Khrushchev's Cold War, 474. 42 "We've saved Cuba": Oleg Troyanovsky, Cherez Gody y Rastoyaniya (Moscow: Vagrius, 1997), 244–5. 42 The 11,000-ton Yuri Gagarin: I have reconstructed the positions of Soviet ships on October 23 from CIA daily memorandums for October 24 and 25, NSA intercepts, plus research in Moscow by Karlov. See also Statsenko report. 43 Her cargo included:Yesin et al., Strategicheskaya Operatsiya Anadyr', 114. 43 After a sixteen-day voyage: For the positions of the Aleksandrovsk and Almetyevsk, see NSA Cuban missile crisis release, vol. 2, October 1998. 43 In addition to the surface ships: Svetlana Savranskaya, "New Sources on the Role of Soviet Submarines in the Cuban Missile Crisis," Journal of Strategic Studies (April 2005). 44 The vessels closest to Cuba:The ships that continued to Cuba were the Aleksandrovsk, Almetyevsk, Divnogorsk, Dubno, and Nikolaevsk, according to CIA logs and Karlov research. 44 "In connection with": Havana 2002, vol. 2, Document 16, author's trans. 44 "Order the return": Fursenko, Prezidium Ts.

pages: 523 words: 143,639

Red November: Inside the Secret U.S.-Soviet Submarine War by W. Craig Reed


Albert Einstein, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, cable laying ship, centre right, cuban missile crisis,, nuclear winter, operation paperclip, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, upwardly mobile

RESOURCES Body of Secrets: Anatomy of the Ultra-Secret National Security Agency, James Bamford, Anchor, April 30, 2002, offered information regarding John Arnold and Cuban SIGINT missions conducted by the USS Nautilus and Oxford, as well as details about the USS Pueblo. Jeffrey G. Barlow, “Some Aspects of the U.S. Navy’s Participation in the Cuban Missile Crisis,” in A New Look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, Colloquium on Contemporary History, June 18, 1992, No. 7, Naval Historical Center, Department of the Navy Command in Crisis: Four Case Studies, Joseph F. Bouchard, Columbia University Press, 1991 The Cuban Missile Crisis, ed. Laurence Chang, National Security Archive, 1992 “The Naval Quarantine of Cuba, 1962,” Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, 1963, October Fury, Peter Huchthausen, John Wiley & Sons, 2002 Presidential Recordings: John F.

National Archives “The Cuban Missile Crisis as Seen through a Periscope,” Ryurik A. Ketov, Captain First Rank, Russian Navy (retired), Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 28, no. 2, 217–231, April 2005 “In the Depths of the Sargasso Sea,” A. F. Dubivko, Captain First Rank, Russian Navy (retired; unpublished memoir) “Reflections of Vadim Orlov, We Will Sink Them All, But We Will Not Disgrace Our Navy,” V. P. Orlov, Captain Second Rank, Russian Navy (retired; unpublished memoir) CINCLANT SOSUS contact reports during the Cuban Missile Crisis “Khrushchev, Castro and Kennedy: Motivation, Intention, and the Creation of a Crisis,” Robin R. Pickering, thesis presented to the faculty of Humboldt State University, May 2006 Deck logs obtained for various naval platforms during the Cuban Missile Crisis Eyeball to Eyeball, The Inside Story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Dino A.

Pickering, thesis presented to the faculty of Humboldt State University, May 2006 Deck logs obtained for various naval platforms during the Cuban Missile Crisis Eyeball to Eyeball, The Inside Story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Dino A. Brugioni, Random House, 1991 Soviet Naval Developments, third edition, foreword by Norman Polmar, The Nautical and Aviation Publishing Co. of America, 1984 Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Robert F. Kennedy, W. W. Norton & Co., 1969 Submarines of the Russian and Soviet Navies, 1718–1990, Norman Polmar and Jurrien Noot, Naval Institute Press, 1991 Combat Fleets of the World 1980/81, Jean Labayle Couhat, Naval Institute Press, 1980 U.S. Military Operations Since World War II, Kenneth Anderson, Brompton Books Corporation, 1984 One Hell of a Gamble, The Secret History of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, W. W. Norton & Co., 1997 “Report Heightens Nuclear Sub Mystery/Torpedo Theory Contradicts Findings of USS Scorpion’s Wreckage in 1968,” Stephen Johnson, Houston Chronicle, December 27, 1993 The Reminiscences of Admiral George W.

pages: 615 words: 175,905

Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam by H. R. McMaster


anti-communist, Berlin Wall, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, South China Sea

He surrounded himself with people who “knew a hell of a lot more” than he did about national security issues and learned from them. He was a good student, however, and “by the time of the Cuban missile crisis [his] views were pretty well fixed and [hadn’t] changed to this day.”29 McNamara was proud of what he portrayed as a personal triumph during the Cuban missile crisis. When he turned his attention to Southeast Asia, he exuded confidence that he had gained in the Caribbean. The defense secretary was determined to remove obstacles that might prevent him from assuming the role of chief strategist in the Pentagon. During the Cuban missile crisis, McNamara kept tight control over the ships, submarines, and aircraft enforcing the quarantine around Cuba to ensure that the demonstration of American resolve sent the proper message to the Soviets.

appointments, 2–4, 22, 31, 43 approach to decision-making and administration, 4–5, 6, 15, 21, 23, 39 assassination, 47 Bay of Pigs, 5–7, 8, 11, 16, 22, 23, 24, 25 and Berlin Wall, 23, 31 and Bundy, 3–4, 15–16 Castro, personal antipathy toward, 25 Cuban missile crisis, 24–31 decision to withdraw one thousand advisers from Vietnam, 40 and Department of Defense/Pentagon, 2, 5, 23 and Diem coup, 38–41, 46 election of, 1–2 and the JCS, 5–23, 28, 43, 46 Laotian crisis, 7–8, 22, 23, 32 and LeMay, 43 and McNamara, 2–4, 15, 17–22 military policy, 10–11, 32, 43, 109 and NSC dismantlement, 4–5, 6 personality and style, 15–16 and Rusk, 3–4 and Soviets, 8, 30, 43 speech to West Point graduating class, 1962, 32 and Taylor, 8–17, 21–22, 105, 109 and Vietnam, 22, 23, 32, 37–41, 324 Kennedy, Robert and Castro assassination attempts, 25 and Cuban missile crisis, 26, 28 and Diem ouster, 40–41 and presidential appointments, 3 and Taylor, 208 Khrushchev, Nikita and Cuban missile crisis, 28, 158, 159 and escalation of Vietnam war, 159–60 and Kennedy, 23 and Laos, 8 policy on insurgencies, 31–32 Kohler, Foy, 284 Korean War, 7, 9, 34, 44, 52, 144, 214, 224 Krulak, Victor, 59–60, 96, 101, 172 Lam Van Phant, 164 Lansdale, Edward, 205 Laos, 98.

He wanted to sack LeMay at the same time as Anderson, but McNamara warned that two simultaneous removals would be one too many.31 The desire to control military operations more closely at the civilian level in the OSD and in the White House coincided with advances in communications technology that made possible the detailed monitoring of military activities in faraway theaters. During the Cuban missile crisis, communications equipment established in the White House after the Bay of Pigs incident allowed the president to monitor and control military operations from his desk in the Oval Office.32 The Defense Department installed high-volume communications and data display systems that let the White House Situation Room monitor closely the most technical aspects of military deployments and activities.33 Rather than give the military the mission to enforce the blockade, McNamara and the president orchestrated the specific activities of U.S. ships.34 The Cuban missile crisis was the best known of the Cold War flare-ups that dominated the beginning of the Kennedy administration.

pages: 392 words: 106,532

The Cold War: A New History by John Lewis Gaddis


anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, European colonialism, full employment, land reform, long peace, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Potemkin village, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Sinatra Doctrine

Khrushchev, Khrushchev Remembers, translated and edited by Strobe Talbott (New York: Bantam, 1971), p. 546. 59 Taubman, Khrushchev, p. 537. 60 See the transcripts of conversations between American and Soviet veterans of the crisis in Blight, Allyn, and Welch, Cuba on the Brink; and in James G. Blight and David A. Welch, On the Brink: Americans and Soviets Reexamine the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Hill and Wang, 1989). 61 Kennedy meeting with advisers, October 22, 1962, in Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1997), p. 235. 62 Taubman, Khrushchev, p. 552. 63 Blight, Allyn, and Welch, Cuba on the Brink, p. 259. 64 Ibid., p. 203. 65 Gaddis, We Now Know, p. 262; “NRDC Nuclear Notebook: Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945–2002,” p. 104. 66 Blight, Allyn, and Welch, Cuba on the Brink, p. 360. 67 Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (New York: St.

Jackson-Vanik amendment Japan atomic bombing of and Korea occupation of Jaruzelski, Wojciech Jews Soviet John Paul II, pope attempted assassination of Johnson, Lady Bird Johnson, Lyndon B. Great Society programs of Vietnam War and Johnson administration Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Justice Department, U.S. Kádár, János Kant, Immanuel Katyn Wood massacre Kazakhstan Kennan, George F. “long telegram” of on role of C.I.A. on U.N. Kennedy, John F. Cuban missile crisis and U.S.-Soviet relations and Kennedy, Robert F. Kent State incident K.G.B. Khmer Rouge Khomeini, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khrushchev, Nikita background and personality of Berlin Wall and Cuban missile crisis and East German alliance and Eisenhower’s meetings with Hungarian uprising and nuclear weapons policy of ouster of rise of Sino-Soviet relations and Stalin denounced by Suez crisis and Tito visited by U.S. visited by U-2 incident and “We will bury you” remark of Khrushchev, Sergei Kim Il-sung King, Martin Luther, Jr.

hydrogen bomb decision of nuclear weapons policy of onset of Korean War and Truman Doctrine speech of Truman administration Truman Doctrine Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine Ulbricht, Walter United Nations human rights and Kennan on Korean War and non-intervention principle of veto power in Wilsonian ideas and United States anti-war movement in atomic bomb policy of atomic monopoly of authoritarian regimes and China’s relations with, see Sino-American relations colonialism and Cuban missile crisis and decline of détente and de Gaulle’s relations with elections in, see elections, U.S. Hiss spy case in isolationism of Kent State incident in Khrushchev’s visit to moral standards in foreign policy OF non-aligned countries and origins of World War II and postwar objectives of postwar settlement and Soviet Union contrasted with Soviet Union’s relations with, see United States–Soviet relations in Stalin’s postwar plans in World War II United States–Soviet relations: Angola conflict and Arab-Israeli war of 1973 and arms race and, see nuclear weapons; SALT atomic bomb and “Basic Principles” statement and Berlin blockade and Bush administration’s review of collapse of Soviet Union and Cuban missile crisis and emigration issue and German reunification issue and justice and Kennedy and Khrushchev’s U.S. visit and “long telegram” and Marshall Plan and moral ambivalence in non-aligned nations and occupation of Germany and origins of Cold War and Ostpolitik and postwar Germany policy and postwar settlement and Reagan’s policies and rule of law and Soviet unilateralism and SS-20 missile crisis and U-2 incident and see also capitalism; communism; détente Universal Declaration of Human Rights U-2 incident Uzbekistan Vanik, Charles Versailles Treaty of 1919 Vienna summit of 1961 Vienna summit of 1979 Viet Minh Vietnam, Democratic Republic of (North Vietnam) Vietnam, Republic of (South Vietnam) Diem’s regime in Vietnam War anti-war movement and Cambodia invasion in Johnson’s credibility in Pentagon Papers and Sino-American relations and Tet Offensive in War Powers Act and Vonnegut, Kurt Wałęsa, Lech Wallace, Henry A.

Who Rules the World? by Noam Chomsky


Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, corporate governance, corporate personhood, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden,, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, liberation theology, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, one-state solution, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, precariat, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Stanislav Petrov, structural adjustment programs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, trade route, union organizing, uranium enrichment, wage slave, WikiLeaks, working-age population

Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, 19. Jorge I. Domínguez, “The @#$%& Missile Crisis (Or, What Was ‘Cuban’ About U.S. Decisions During the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Diplomatic History 24, no. 5 (Spring 2000): 305–15. 20. Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis, concise edition (New York: W. W. Norton, 2002), 47. 21. Jon Mitchell, “Okinawa’s First Nuclear Missile Men Break Silence,” Japan Times, 8 July 2012. 22. Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, 309. 23. Sheldon M. Stern, Averting “The Final Failure”: John F. Kennedy and the Secret Cuban Missile Crisis Meetings (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2003), 273. 24. Piero Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions: Havana, Washington, and Africa, 1959–1976 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2003), 26. 25.

“Most Americans Willing to Re-Establish Ties with Cuba,” Angus Reid Public Opinion Poll, February 2012, 27. Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, 337. 28. Ibid., 333. 29. Stern, Averting “The Final Failure.” 30. Ibid., 406. 31. Raymond L. Garthoff, “Documenting the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Diplomatic History 24, no. 2 (Spring 2000): 297–303. 32. Papers of John F. Kennedy, Presidential Papers, National Security Files, Meetings and Memoranda, National Security Action Memoranda [NSAM]: NSAM 181, Re: Action to be taken in response to new Bloc activity in Cuba (B), September 1962, JFKNSF-338-009, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston, Massachusetts. 33. Garthoff, “Documenting the Cuban Missile Crisis.” 34. Keith Bolender, Voices From the Other Side: An Oral History of Terrorism Against Cuba (London: Pluto Press, 2010). 35. Montague Kern, review of Selling Fear: Counterterrorism, the Media, and Public Opinion by Brigitte L.

., Robert Kennedy and His Times (Boston: Mariner Books, 2002), 480; Noam Chomsky, Hegemony or Survival: America’s Quest for Global Dominance (New York: Henry Holt, 2003), p. 83. 40. Chomsky, Hegemony or Survival, 78–83. 41. Stern, The Week the World Stood Still, 2. 42. Desmond Ball, Politics and Force Levels: The Strategic Missile Program of the Kennedy Administration (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980), 97. 43. Garthoff, “Documenting the Cuban Missile Crisis.” 44. Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, 342. 45. Allison, “The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50.” 46. Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Steven E. Miller, and Stephen Van Evera, Nuclear Diplomacy and Crisis Management: An International Security Reader (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press 1990), 304. 47. William Burr, ed., “The October War and U.S. Policy,” National Security Archive, published 7 October 2003, 48.

pages: 762 words: 206,865

Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth by Frederick Kempe


Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, index card, Kitchen Debate, Mikhail Gorbachev, open borders, Ronald Reagan, trade liberalization, traveling salesman, zero-sum game

Furthermore, there was a special intensity about that first crisis. In the words of William Kaufman, a Kennedy administration strategist who worked both Berlin and Cuba from the Pentagon, “Berlin was the worst moment of the Cold War. Although I was deeply involved in the Cuban Missile Crisis, I personally thought that the Berlin confrontation, especially after the wall went up, where you had Soviet and U.S. tanks literally facing one another with guns pointed, was a more dangerous situation. We had very clear indications mid-week of the Cuban Missile Crisis that the Russians were not really going to push us to the edge…. “You didn’t get that sense in Berlin.” Fred Kempe’s contribution to our crucial understanding of that time is that he combines the “You are there” storytelling skills of a journalist, the analytical skills of the political scientist, and the historian’s use of declassified U.S., Soviet, and German documents to provide unique insight into the forces and individuals behind the construction of the Berlin Wall—the iconic barrier that came to symbolize the Cold War’s divisions.

“I don’t know quite what we will discuss at the meeting,” Kennedy said, “because he’ll be back with the same old position on Berlin, probably offering to dismantle the missiles if we’ll neutralize Berlin.” Most surprised of all by Kennedy’s demonstration of strength was Khrushchev himself, who had bet so much against it. General Clay suggested to diplomat William Smyser that the Cuban Missile Crisis never would have occurred had it not been for Khrushchev’s perception of Kennedy’s weakness, and Clay believed as well that the threat to Berlin only receded once Kennedy made it clear he would no longer tolerate Moscow’s bullying. West Berliners celebrated the outcome of the Cuban Missile Crisis more enthusiastically than any others. They concluded that the Soviet threat to them had passed. RATHAUS SCHÖNEBERG, CITY HALL OF WEST BERLIN WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26, 1963 Kennedy would make his first and last presidential trip to Berlin eight months after the Cuban crisis, on June 26, 1963.

The first scene unfolded:; Berliner Morgenpost, 08/13/2006; Hilton, The Wall, 164–168. At the same time…Soviet ships: Beschloss, Crisis Years, 412–415; Taubman, Khrushchev, 549–551; Fursenko and Naftali, Khrushchev’s Cold War, 451; Raymond L. Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1987, 18–22, 208 (table showing type and numbers of missiles). Fechter’s murder snapped something: “City’s Mood: Anger and Frustration,” New York Times, 08/26/1962. Meanwhile, over Cuba: Anatoli I. Gribkov and William Y. Smith, “Operation Anadyr”: U.S. and Soviet Generals Recount the Cuban Missile Crisis. Chicago: Edition Q, 1994, 5–7, 24, 26–57; Taubman, Khrushchev, 550; Fursenko and Naftali, One Hell of a Gamble, 188–189, 191–193. On August 22, the CIA: FRUS, 1961–1963, vol. X, Cuba, January 1961–September 1962, Doc. 383, Memo from the President’s Special Assistant (Schlesinger) to the President’s Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Bundy), Washington, August 22, 1962, CIA, Office of Current Intelligence (OCI), No. 3047/62, Current Intelligence Memo, August 22, 1962: “Recent Soviet Military Aid to Cuba.”

pages: 423 words: 115,336

This Is Only a Test: How Washington D.C. Prepared for Nuclear War by David F. Krugler


Berlin Wall, City Beautiful movement, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Frank Gehry, full employment, glass ceiling, index card, nuclear winter, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, urban planning, Victor Gruen, white flight, Works Progress Administration

Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, “One Hell of a Gamble”: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997), 188–9, 217, 242. Fursenko, One Hell, 188–9 (the quote is on 189); “Chronologies of the Crisis,” compiled for Laurence Chang and Peter Kornbluh, eds., The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962: A National Security Archive Documents Reader (New York: The New Press, 1992), accessed June 23, 2005 at the National Security Archive 22. “Chronologies of the Crisis”; Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis (Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1997), 45–76, 189–203. Furensko, One Hell, 242–3; “Chronologies of the Crisis”; “Radio and Television Report to the American People,” October 22, 1962, PPP: John F.

., 115, 139–41, 173 Rodericks, George, 172, 175, 178, 184 Roosevelt, Eleanor, 13–14 Roosevelt, Franklin civil defense and, 13–14 death of, 16 Pentagon and, 17–18, 67 White House and, 15, 70–1 Schwartz, Max, 52, 54, 87 shelters see fallout shelters Sherry, Michael, 90 Silvers, Hal, 131, 133–4 Site R, 64–5, 67–8, 95, 126–7, 132, 158, 162, 165–6, 180, 183, 185–6 see also Raven Rock Mountain Smith, Howard, 62–3 Social Science Research Council, 22, 89 Soviet Union aircraft of, 1, 5, 10, 82, 87, 90, 111, 113, 116, 132 Cold War and, 18–20, 48, 59 Cuban Missile Crisis and, 174–9 deterrence of, 91–2, 98 espionage of, 6, 18, 104 nuclear weapons of, 1, 10, 131–2, 136, 142, 169, 182, 235 n.44 propaganda of, 25, 85, 87 striking capability of, 10, 108, 116, 120–1, 158–60, 166 test of atomic bomb, 32, 35–6, 41, 64, 171 test of hydrogen bomb, 75, 99–100 War Scare of 1948 and, 23–5 see also Washington, D.C., imagined attacks on Spencer, Samuel, 121, 132 Springfield, Va., 34 Stalin, Joseph, 6, 18 State Department Cuban Missile Crisis and, 177, 180–1 offices in Washington, D.C., 17, 21, 50, 61, 101, 144 participation in exercises, 109, 121, 127–8, 161 relocation site of, 93–6, 109, 121, 128, 155, 165–6, 180, 183 Steelman, John, 32 Stein, Clarence, 28, 60, 147 Stewart Air Force Base, 112, 150 Stowe, David, 49–50, 75, 96 Strategic Air Command (SAC), 111, 114, 179 Strauss, Lewis, 102, 133 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) see ballistic missiles Suitland, Md., 34 Supreme Court continuity of, 7, 168, 177–8 during Cuban Missile Crisis, 177–8, 181 participation in exercises, 129 rulings on racial segregation, 145–6 Symington, Stuart, 55–7, 59, 91, 171 Takoma Park, Md., 48, 122 Teague, Olin, 122–3 ‘tempos’ on National Mall, 17, 21, 26, 31, 38–9, 43, 50–1, 61–2, 103–4 proposed construction of, 34–6 Treasury Department continuity of, 106, 180 participation in exercises, 81, 109, 117, 127–8, 161 relocation sites of, 183 tunnel to White House, 69, 73 Truman, Harry S. authorization of Conelrad, 112 authorization of development of hydrogen bomb, 6 continuity of government planning of, 5, 64, 75, 96, 105 Doctrine of, 23, 171 end of World War II and, 16–18 Korean War and, 48–9, 59 reaction to Soviet atomic test, 35, 171 reelection of, 31 support for civil defense, 23–4, 46, 55–6, 81, 86, 90–2, 170 support for desegregation of Washington, D.C., 3, 145 support for dispersal, 4, 49–52, 59, 61–3, 104 treatment of NSRB, 25, 31–2 use of the Bureau of the Budget, 37 White House renovation and, 69–71, 73–4 Tuve, Dr.

., 95–6, 183 War Scare of 1948, 24–6 wartime essential agencies defined, 4–5, 196 n.16 dispersal of, 30, 38, 40–1, 101–2, 147 participation in exercises, 108–9, 121, 124–9, 156–63, 160, 182 responsibilities of, 105–6, 164, 186 vulnerability of, 105 wartime essential personnel advance evacuation of, 113–14, 120, 124, 155, 163, 177–8, 181 cadres of at Mount Weather, 7, 106, 159, 163, 165, 176 during Cuban Missile Crisis, 176, 178–9 expected actions during crisis, 115, 129, 134, 162–3, 181–2 Washington Area Survival Plan committee (WASP), 132, 135, 138, 141 Washington and Lee University, 15, 95, 157, 165 Washington Board of Trade, 46, 81 Washington, D.C. on 9/11, 185–7 Alert America in, 77–80 attack warning system of, 14, 111–15, 150–5 civil defense in see under D.C. Office of Civil Defense civil defense during World War II, 14–16 during Cuban Missile Crisis, 175–6 difficulty of evacuating, 109, 115, 121–4, 132–5 effects of World War II on, 11–12, 14, 16–17 exercises staged in, 116–17, 119–21, 124–30 government of, 3, 45–6 ground observer posts in, 82–5, 138–9 imagined attacks on, 1–2, 23, 36, 47, 67, 111–14, 117, 136, 158–60, 179–81 see also Operation Alert lack of home rule, 3, 93 national security state in, 21 planning for civil defense office in, 45–7 population of, 12, 26, 122, 145 present–day emergency plans of, 187–9 segregation of, 2–3, 14–15, 54, 84, 145–7 slavery in, 3 symbolic importance of, 3–4, 8, 49, 122–3, 135 UFO scare in, 85–6 see also dispersal, plans for metropolitan Washington, D.C.

pages: 293 words: 74,709

Bomb Scare by Joseph Cirincione


Albert Einstein, cuban missile crisis, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, energy security, Ernest Rutherford, Mahatma Gandhi, Mikhail Gorbachev, Ronald Reagan, uranium enrichment, Yogi Berra

As president, Kennedy kept his promises and worked forcefully for ways to reduce the nuclear threats. He created the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency to pursue his vision and to provide some balance in national policy discussions. If he had any doubts about the urgency of reducing nuclear dangers, these were dispelled by the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The discovery that the Soviet Union had placed missiles in Cuba capable of hitting the United States set off a diplomatic and military confrontation that terrified the world. Former Kennedy speech writer Arthur Schlesinger Jr. recalled the crisis in 2006: The Cuban missile crisis was not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War. It was the most dangerous moment in all human history. Never before had two contending powers possessed between them the technical capacity to destroy the planet. Had there been exponents of preventive war in the White House, there probably would have been nuclear war.16 Only decades later, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the opportunity for the participants in the crisis to sit down and discuss these events, did previously secret and terrifying information come to light.

chemical weapons Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) Cheney, Richard China: and India, and Japan, and national security model, and nuclear arms race, nuclear arsenal extent, and regional tensions, U.S. policies Chirac, Jacques Christopher, Warren Churchill, Winston civilian nuclear stockpiles Clinton, Bill: and domestic political model, and nonproliferation regime, and Ukraine Cohen, Avner Cold War: and Atoms for Peace program, Cuban Missile Crisis, and Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombing, and nuclear risk, and regional tensions. See also nuclear arms race; U.S. nuclear guarantees Committee on Assurances of Supply Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) Compton, Arthur Conan, Neal Conant, James Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) core counter-proliferation. See also Bush administration policies Coyle, Philip critical mass cruise missiles CTBT (Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty) CTR (Cooperative Threat Reduction) Cuban Missile Crisis cultural responses: Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombing, nuclear arms race CWC (Chemical Weapons Convention) Czech Republic Davis, Zachary Davy Crockett de Gaulle, Charles DeGroot, Gerard Democritus deterrence.

From 1951 to 2000, only some twenty million people suffered that same fate.2 “Well-managed proliferation,” some say, with perhaps double the number of today’s nuclear-armed states, would extend the benefits of nuclear deterrence to many areas of the world, helping to keep the peace in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.3 The pessimists disagree. They believe that “we lucked out” during the Cold War, when the two nuclear superpowers stood “eyeball to eyeball,” in former secretary of state Dean Rusk’s famous description of the Cuban Missile Crisis.4 The spread of nuclear weapons, they argue, reduces real security. States are not always rational actors, for example. State leaders may act irrationally and initiate a nuclear strike. Nor are states monolithic. Substate actors with their own agendas, such as military commanders, may ignore orders and trigger a nuclear attack. Even with stable governments, they argue, the risk of an accidental launch is great because of technical failure, breakdown of command and control, bad intelligence, or false assumptions.

pages: 465 words: 124,074

Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism From Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda by John Mueller


airport security, Albert Einstein, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Doomsday Clock, energy security, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, long peace, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, oil shock, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, side project, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War

., nuclear metaphysics, 63–64, 68, 97, 255n.22 Kahn, Herman, 57, 73–74, 92 kamikaze, Japanese, 249n.5 Kaplan, Fred, 64 Kaplan, Lawrence, 261n.4 Kay, David, nuclear arms, 103, 155–156, 157 Kazakhstan, 110, 122–124, 138 Kean, Governor Thomas, worries, xi Keller, Bill, worries, xi, 162–163, 179 Kennedy, President John F., 81 Chinese nuclear test, 96 Cuban missile crisis, 40, 248n.33 missile trade, 248n.33 proliferation problem, 90, 93, 94, 98 test ban treaty, 76 UN as only true alternative to war, 75 war and mankind, 25 Kenney, Michael, Islamic militants, 223 Kerry, John, nuclear weapon worry, 163 Khan, A. Q. bin Laden’s interest in, network, 213 intelligence agencies closing operation, 164–165 selling secrets, 169–170, 207 Khattab, Ibn, connection to bin Laden, 202–203 Khrushchev, Nikita Britain and France reversing invasion at Suez, 249n.12 Cuban missile crisis, 39–40 struggle against capitalism, 34–35 supporting Shevchenko, 248n.31 world war, 33 Korean War, 38, 47–48, 50 Kornienko, Georgy, world war and Soviets, 33 Kosko, Bart, government overestimating threat, 220 Kramer, Stanley, On the Beach, 57 Krauthammer, Charles, Arab world, 261n.1, 261n.4 Kremlin, 246n.15, 247n.22 Kristof, Nicholas, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, 181 Kristol, William, 261n.4 Langewiesche, William Atomic Bazaar, 183, 268n.5 book jacket flap, 268n.5 constructing bomb, 111, 173 obtaining nuclear weapons, 105 odds against terrorists, 184 passed “point of no return,” 93 Lapp, Ralph, A-bombs, 242n.19 Laqueur, Walter, proliferation of WMD, 228 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 266–267n.43 leadership, nuclear weapons programs, 113 Lenin, Vladimir, 34 Levi, Michael, 165, 171, 175, 184, 187, 189, 213, 264n.6 Lewis, Jeffrey, 178, 191 Libya, 124–126, 145, 258n.31 likelihood acceptable risk, 197–198 acquisition scenarios, 190–191 arraying barriers, 184, 186 assessing, 186–191 assigning and calculating probabilities, 187–189 comparisons of improbable events, 191–193 multiple attempts, 189–190 policy for reducing, 193–197 probability of nuclear fission bomb, 267n.48 terrorist bomb, 183, 238 World at Risk, 182 Lockerbie bombing, 125, 258n.32 London, image of destruction, 24 longer-term effects, nuclear attack, 8 The Looming Tower, Wright, 201 “loose nukes,”165–168, 208–210, 238 Los Alamos National Laboratory, 267n.48 Los Alamos scientists bomb design, 173–174 difficulties of making nuclear weapons, 174–175 sensitive detection equipment, 176 Los Angeles, port security, 141 Los Angeles International Airport, 19 lottery tickets, terrorism comparison, 191 Lugar, Senator Richard, 20, 171, 181, 194 McCain, Senator John, 130–131, 230 McCarthyism, Communist menace, 49 McCone, CIA Director John, Chinese threat, 91, 96 McNamara, Robert, 66–67, 68, 248n.33 McNaugher, Thomas, missiles, 116 McPhee, John, sense of urgency, 162 Mahmood, Sultan Bachiruddin, 203–205, 271n.16 Majid, Abdul, Pakistani nuclear scientist, 203–204 marijuana bale, smuggling atomic device, 177 Martin, Susan, 232 measured ambiguity, catchphrase, 86 melancholy thought, Winston Churchill, 35 Middle East, 225, 261n.4 Milhollin, Gary, 174, 175 military, Canada, 106 military attacks, appeal of nuclear weapons, 147 military planning, nuclear weapons, 14–15 military strategy, stabilizing or destabilizing, 66 military value, nuclear weapons, 108–110, 236, 237–238 Mir, Hamid, 164, 210–211, 264n.7 credibility of, 273n.36 missile capacity, 153, 154 missile crisis, Cuba, 40 The Missiles of October, Cuba, 40 Mohammed, Khalid Sheikh, 9/11 attack, 206 morality, Canada without weapons, 112–113 Morison, Samuel Eliot, 269n.23 Morrison, Phillip, chance for working peace, 26 Mowatt–Larssen, Rolf, xi, 20 Mueller, Robert, xi, 228, 274n.16, 276n.37 Mukhatzhanova, Gaukhar, points of no return, 94–95 Muller, Richard, 146, 172, 192 multiple groups, likelihood, 189–190 Musharraf, General Pervez, criticism, 260n.24 Muslim extremists, publications of violence, 223 mustard gas, calculation for causalties, 12 mutual assured destruction (MAD), deterrence, 64 Myers, General Richard, 20, 22 Naftali, Timothy, 76, 249n.12, 263n.29 Nagasaki atomic bomb, 9–10 human costs, 141 military value of atomic bomb, 10 surrender of Japanese, 43 taboo of nuclear weapons, 61–63 napalm, 243n.30 National Intelligence Estimate (1958), 119 National Intelligence Estimate (2007), 274n.16 National Planning Association, diffusion, 104 national security threat, terrorism and U.S., 233 NATO missiles, European demonstrations, 60 “naughty child” effect, Russia, 108 neglect, cold war, 86 Negroponte, John, probability of attack, 181 nerve gas, calculation for causalties, 12 Netanyahu, Benjamin, 264n.33 Neufeld, Michael, missiles, 116 neutron bomb, 4, 14, 81 New Jersey Lottery, 270n.6 Nimitz, Admiral Chester W., 269n.23 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), nuclear, 119–121 North Korea American-led forced invading, 247n.27 attention, 108, 238 axis of evil, 144 calm policy discussion, 151, 152–153 deterrence, 262n.19 “eating problem,” 152 hysteria, 263n.25 invasion of South Korea, 49 nuclear weapon, x proliferation, 93 proliferation fixation, 135–137 sanctions, 136, 145 “supreme priority” of, 149–150 Nth country problem, nuclear weapons, 91 nuclear age, verge of new, x nuclear arsenals, 64–65, 145, 237 nuclear bomb, 17, 269n.16 “The Nuclear Bomb of Islam,” bin Laden, 211–212 nuclear crisis, Cuba, 39 nuclear diffusion, 237 nuclear energy, security, 139–140 “nuclear era,” Hiroshima, ix nuclear explosion, 61–62, 181, 243n.9 nuclear fears classic cold war, 56–57 declining again, 60–61 On the Beach, 57 reviving in early 1980s, 58–60 subsiding in 1960s and 1970s, 57–58 nuclear fission bomb, probability of attack, 267n.48 nuclear forensics, 155, 164, 190, 194, 264n.6 nuclear fuel, cartelization, 260n.28 nuclear metaphysics, deterrence, 63–67 nuclear proliferation, xiii, 89 nuclear radiation, dirty bomb, 18 nuclear reactor meltdown, Chernobyl, 7 Nuclear Regulatory Agency, radiation, 7 The Nuclear Revolution, Mandelbaum, 246n.7 nuclear sting operation, 194 Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, Kristof, 181 nuclear tipping point, Brookings Institution, 93–94 nuclear virginity, Canada, 112 nuclear war, x, 64 nuclear weapons.

He had been greatly impressed by Barbara Tuchman’s The Guns of August and concluded that in 1914 the Europeans “somehow seemed to tumble into war … through stupidity, individual idiosyncrasies, misunderstandings, and personal complexes of inferiority and grandeur.” He had no intention, he made clear, of becoming a central character in a “comparable book about this time, The Missiles of October.”33 Of course the Cuban missile crisis would not have happened, at least in the same way, had there been no nuclear weapons for the Soviets to deploy to the island. The point here, however, is that even with the image of nuclear war staring at them, Kennedy and Khrushchev were referencing horrors remembered from prenuclear wars to warrant their intense concern about escalation. STABILITY OVERDETERMINED The postwar situation contained (and continues to contain) redundant sources of stability.

Snow was publishing his alarmist broadside proclaiming it to be a “certainty” that, if the nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union were to continue and accelerate, a nuclear bomb would go off “within, at the most, ten years.”4 Nuclear Fear Subsides: The 1960s and 1970s None did, as it happened. Indeed, within, at the most, four years after Snow’s urgent pronouncement, anxiety about nuclear cataclysm began to subside. In the aftermath of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the United States and the Soviet Union signed some arms control agreements and, although these agreements did not reduce either side’s nuclear capacity in the slightest, the generally improved diplomatic atmosphere engendered a considerable relaxation in fear that they would actually use their weapons against each other. Accordingly, whereas over 400 articles per year on nuclear-related topics are listed in the Readers’ Guide to Periodical Literature for 1961, 1962, and 1963, output dropped to less than 200 in 1964 and to about 120 in 1967.

pages: 956 words: 267,746

Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion ofSafety by Eric Schlosser


Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Haight Ashbury, impulse control, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, life extension, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stanislav Petrov, Stewart Brand, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche

: Quoted in Fursenko and Naftali, Khrushchev’s Cold War, p. 442. “To get the population used to the idea”: Ibid. If Khrushchev’s scheme worked: Dozens of books have been written about the Cuban missile crisis. I found these to be the most interesting and compelling: Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, “One Hell of a Gamble”: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964 (New York: W. W. Norton, 1997); Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Longman, 1999); Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: W. W. Norton, 2002); Max Frankel, High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Cold War (New York: Ballantine Books, 2005); and Michael Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War (New York: Knopf, 2008).

The new system eliminated the timer, allowed missiles to be launched individually, and prevented minor power surges from causing an accidental launch. Minuteman missiles became operational for the first time during the Cuban Missile Crisis. To err on the side of safety, the explosive bolts were removed from their silo doors. If one of the missiles were launched by accident, it would explode inside the silo. And if President Kennedy decided to launch one, some poor enlisted man would have to kneel over the silo door, reconnect the explosive bolts by hand, and leave the area in a hurry. • • • WHILE THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE publicly dismissed fears of an accidental nuclear war, the Cuban Missile Crisis left McNamara more concerned than ever about the danger. At a national security meeting a few months after the crisis, he opposed allowing anyone other than the president of the United States to authorize the use of nuclear weapons.

Sagan applied “normal accident” theory to the workings of the American command-and-control system during the Cuban Missile Crisis. According to Sagan, now a professor of political science at Stanford University, the crisis was the most severe test of that system during the Cold War, “the highest state of readiness for nuclear war that U.S. military forces have ever attained and the longest period of time (thirty days) that they have maintained an alert.” Most historians attributed the peaceful resolution of the crisis to decisions made by John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev—to the rational behavior of leaders controlling their military forces. But that sense of control may have been illusory, Sagan argued in The Limits of Safety, and the Cuban Missile Crisis could have ended with a nuclear war, despite the wishes of Khrushchev and Kennedy.

pages: 546 words: 176,169

The Cold War by Robert Cowley


anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, defense in depth, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doomsday Clock, friendly fire, Henry Ford's grandson gave labor union leader Walter Reuther a tour of the company’s new, automated factory…, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, RAND corporation, refrigerator car, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Stanislav Petrov, transcontinental railway

George Feifer (who wrote “The Berlin Tunnel,” anthologized here) was a graduate exchange student in Moscow that fall. Few people there, he once told me, were aware of the Cuban Missile Crisis; the Soviet media had blacked out all mention of it. “But they knew something big was up,” he added, “even if we didn't know precisely what until Khrushchev made a talk at the end, hiding lots of things and twisting others into a Soviet victory. I knew much more than most people, because while the crisis was on, I happened to bump into a friend from the American embassy staff on a busy street. He told me. Still, I knew too little to be scared that I might be killed by an American nuclear bomb at any moment.” The precarious two weeks of the Cuban Missile Crisis came close to overshadowing the emergency in Europe of a year earlier, the erection of the Berlin Wall. But the Wall never caused the same amount of trepidation, certainly not among ordinary people, nor in Washington or Moscow.

Dawn might break over a nation in-finitely poorer than China—less populated than the United States, and condemned to an agrarian existence perhaps for generations to come.” LeMay was eventually made chief of staff of the air force, the position he held during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Privately, he believed that JFK behaved like a coward, that we should have exercised a first-strike option. The Sunday morning after the two Ks cemented their deal, the president summoned his military chiefs to the Cabinet Room to inform them. LeMay pounded the table, his cigar no doubt clenched in his teeth. “It's the greatest defeat in our history, Mr. President…. We should invade today!” For the rest of his life, he remained convinced that we had “lost” the Cuban Missile Crisis—and, indeed, the entire Cold War. VICTOR DAVIS HANSON retired last year as a professor of classics at California State University, Fresno, and is now a fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

It was set in the near future, in a classroom, and it was about the day the Bomb fell: “There was a large quake and the room seemed to turn upside down. We were thrown from our seats. A large crash shattered the window and threw the pieces into the four corners of the room. Sirens screeched. I had difficulty trying to breathe in the fog that now filled the room. We got to our feet and made our way through the crowded halls to the air raid shelter.” Life, for the narrator, would never be the same. A year after the Cuban Missile Crisis, apocalypse was still on our minds. We were not quite halfway through the Cold War, and the Bomb—Bombs, rather—seemed to be our undeserved future. As I read my wife's story, written in her properly neat schoolgirl script, the memory of the nuclear clock resurfaced, its hands perpetually stuck at one minute to midnight. The Cold War lasted almost half a century—from 1946 until 1991, when the Soviet Union ceased to exist—and occupied the greater part of our lifetime.

pages: 351 words: 96,780

Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance by Noam Chomsky


anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, Doomsday Clock, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, invisible hand, liberation theology, long peace, market fundamentalism, Monroe Doctrine, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment

With different threats in mind, strategic analyst Michael Krepon regarded the final days of 2002 as “the most dangerous time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.” A high-level task force concluded that “we are entering a time of especially grave danger [as we] are preparing to attack a ruthless adversary [Iraq] who may well have access to [weapons of mass destruction].” Such dangers are likely to become even more grave in the longer term as a consequence of the easy resort to violence, as many have pointed out.1 The reasons behind these concerns merit close attention, but too narrow a focus can be misleading. We can gain a more realistic perspective on them by asking why the Cuban missile crisis was such a “dangerous time.” The answers bear directly on the perils ahead. ONE WORD AWAY FROM NUCLEAR WAR The missile crisis “was the most dangerous moment in human history,” Arthur Schlesinger commented in October 2002 at a conference in Havana on the fortieth anniversary of the crisis, attended by a number of those who witnessed it from within as it unfolded.

The quoted phrase is Arthur Schlesinger’s, referring to the goals of Robert Kennedy, in Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., Robert Kennedy and His Times (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1978), pp. 477-80. 21 Jorge I. Dominguez, “The @#$%& Missile Crisis: (Or, What Was ‘Cuban’ About U.S. Decisions during the Cuban Missile Crisis?),” Diplomatic History 24, no. 2 (spring 2000): pp. 305-15. Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions, pp. 402-03. Online at: 22 White, ed., The Kennedys and Cuba, op. cit., pp. 71, 95ff., 106, 115ff. 23 Tim Weiner, “The Cuban Missile Crisis: When the World Stood on Edge And Nobody Died Beautifully,” New York Times, Sunday, 13 October 2002, sec. 4, p. 7, citing a February 1962 memorandum; also cited by AP, “US Data Show a Plan to Lure Cuba to War,” Boston Globe, 30 January 1998. 24 L.

The quoted words are not those of Dick Cheney or Donald Rumsfeld, or any of the other statist reactionaries who formulated the National Security Strategy of September 2002. Rather, they were spoken by the respected liberal elder statesman Dean Acheson in 1963. He was justifying US actions against Cuba in full knowledge that Washington’s international terrorist campaign aimed at “regime change” had been a significant factor in bringing the world close to nuclear war only a few months earlier, and that it was resumed immediately after the Cuban missile crisis was resolved. Nevertheless, he instructed the American Society of International Law that no “legal issue” arises when the US responds to a challenge to its “power, position, and prestige.” Acheson’s doctrine was subsequently invoked by the Reagan administration, at the other end of the political spectrum, when it rejected World Court jurisdiction over its attack on Nicaragua, dismissed the court order to terminate its crimes, and then vetoed two Security Council resolutions affirming the court judgment and calling on all states to observe international law.

pages: 684 words: 188,584

The Age of Radiance: The Epic Rise and Dramatic Fall of the Atomic Era by Craig Nelson


Albert Einstein, Brownian motion, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, continuation of politics by other means, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, Doomsday Clock, El Camino Real, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, Henri Poincaré, hive mind, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, Louis Pasteur, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, music of the spheres, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, Project Plowshare, Ralph Nader, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Stuxnet, technoutopianism, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, V2 rocket, William Langewiesche, éminence grise

Life Itself, Its Origin and Nature. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1981. Cronin, J. W. Fermi Remembered. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2004. Crowell, William P. “Remembrances of Venona.” CIA Headquarters, July 11, 1995. “Cuban Missile Crisis.” “Cuban Missile Crisis.” Wilson Center Digital Archive. Cumings, Bruce. “Korea: Forgotten Nuclear Threats.” Le Monde Diplomatique, December 2004. Curie, Ève. Madame Curie. New York: Doubleday, 1937. Curie, Marie. Cher Pierre que je ne reverrai plus (Journal 1906–1907). Paris: Editions Odile Jacob, 1996. ———. Pierre Curie. New York: Macmillan Company, 1923.

., 265 arms race and, 276–77, 282, 289, 376 atomic satellite programs and, 305–06 Bay of Pigs invasion and, 286, 293–94 Cuban Missile Crisis and, 294–99 fallout shelters and, 286 joint moon mission proposal and, 284 Khrushchev and, 285–86 missile gap and, 282, 285–86, 293–94 nuclear air power programs and, 305 nuclear defense strategies and, 288–89 Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and, 374 presidential campaign against Nixon by, 282, 284–85 Kennedy, Robert, 297 KGB, 172, 238, 240, 292, 293, 327 Khan, Abdul Qadeer, 338 Khrushchev, Nikita, 370–71 arms race and¸ 245, 254, 267, 276–77, 284–85, 373 Bay of Pigs invasion and, 286, 293–94 Cold War and, 300 Cuban Missile Crisis and, 294–95, 296–97, 298, 299 joint moon mission proposal and, 284 rise to power by, 254 Szilard’s meeting with, 267 US perception of threats from, 256 Khrushchev, Sergei, 246, 256, 284, 290, 294–95, 297, 298 Killing a Nation defense strategy, 277, 292, 293, 372 Kim Il Sung, 243, 373 King, Ernest, 221–22 Kissinger, Henry A., 282, 335 Kistiakowsky, George (Kisty), 169, 171, 173, 196, 197–98, 199, 202, 228 Klaproth, Martin, 25 Knuth, August, 130 Kolbert, Elizabeth, 360–61 Korea.

Szilard was promised fifteen minutes but unsurprisingly to any of his friends, the talk went on for two hours, with Khrushchev finally agreeing to the possibility of an international agency that would limit arms escalation and a communications hotline between the Soviet premier and the American president in case of nuclear crisis. That hotline would also appear in Dr. Strangelove, but would not exist in the real world until the Cuban Missile Crisis and its series of delayed telegrams made it clear to both sides that this was worthwhile. In April 1958, the USSR unilaterally suspended nuclear testing, and after the AEC’s Strauss warned Eisenhower that a reciprocal American test ban would turn Los Alamos and Livermore into “ghost towns,” the president growled that he “thought scientists, like other people, have a strong interest in avoiding nuclear war.”

pages: 239 words: 56,531

The Secret War Between Downloading and Uploading: Tales of the Computer as Culture Machine by Peter Lunenfeld


Albert Einstein, Andrew Keen, Apple II, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Brownian motion, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, butterfly effect, computer age, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, don't be evil, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, East Village, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Gehry, Grace Hopper, gravity well, Guggenheim Bilbao, Honoré de Balzac, Howard Rheingold, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Mercator projection, Metcalfe’s law, Mother of all demos, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Post-materialism, post-materialism, Potemkin village, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, Robert Metcalfe, Robert X Cringely, Schrödinger's Cat, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, Skype, social software, spaced repetition, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Ted Nelson, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the medium is the message, Thomas L Friedman, Turing machine, Turing test, urban planning, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, walkable city, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Shockley: the traitorous eight

The bomb has been cited as the catalyst for everything from the rise of existentialism in the 1950s to the rebirth of religiosity in the West, from atomic age googie diners in Southern California to the kawai/cuteness of contemporary Japanese Superflat art. I was a baby when President John F. Kennedy appeared on all three major television networks to announce that the Soviets were stationing ballistic missiles just ninety miles off the Florida coast, and that what was later to be called the Cuban Missile Crisis was at hand. Kennedy used the medium of television to talk about the bomb, not only to the American people, but also to the leadership in Havana and Moscow, bypassing the customary diplomatic notification procedures entirely. The family lore is that my parents stayed up all that night in terror for themselves and for me. All throughout my college years, I would occasionally look over my shoulder to see if there was a vapor trail in the sky pointing the way to atomic apocalypse.

All hyperlinks current as of October 1, 2010 197 INDEX Adobe Systems, 55 Adstar, 177 Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), 152, 158 Advertisement, 184nn12,15 bespoke futures and, 107 culture machine and, 175–177 stickiness and, 23, 31 unimodernism and, 52, 57, 59 Affordances, 183n4 bespoke futures and, 121, 124, 129, 136 stickiness and, 16–17, 24, 28–35 unimodernism and, 68, 75 Web n.0 and, 80–82, 90 Afghanistan, 100 African National Congress, 113, 41–42 Agee, James, 40–42 Age of Aquarius, 159 Agribusiness, 4, 10 Airplanes, xiii Alessi, 64 Algorithms, 46, 144, 174–177 Allen, Paul, 164 “All You Need Is Love” (Beatles), 62 Al-Muhajiroun, 134 Al-Qaeda, 134 Altair personal computer, 161, 164 Alto personal computer, 162 Amazing Stories (comic book), 108–110 Amazon, 68, 99, 145 Amis, Kinsley, 32 Animation, 55–56, 58, 110, 118 Antiglobalization activists, 98 AOL, 9, 53, 99 Apartheid, 112–113 Apple, 144, 163–167, 172, 186n12 Appropriate scale, 57 Aquarians, 24, 152, 159, 168–169 description of term, xv Engelbart and, 144, 157–167 Kay and, 144, 157, 160–167, 195nn16,17 Nelson and, 168 networked computers and, xv Sutherland and, 160–161 Arcades, 15, 71 Architectural Forum magazine, 84 Ariadne, 11 Arnold, Matthew, 14 Ars Electronica, 169–170 Art nouveau, 44, 66 “As We May Think” (Bush), 149, 157 AT&T, 144, 195n10 Atari, 165 Atlantic Monthly, 149 Atomic age, 146 as catalyst, xi Cuban Missile Crisis and, xi description of, xv emergence of, xi–xii 198 Atomic age (continued) Hiroshima and, 100–101 Manhattan Project and, 150 mutually assured destruction and, xi terrorism and, 100–101 Avant-gardism, 31, 44, 61, 117–120, 133 Babbage, Charles, 149 Bakri Muhammad, Omar, 134–135 Bali, 100 Ballmer, Steve, 164 Balzac, Honoré de, 44 Banham, Reyner, 10 Barr, Alfred, 117–118 Bauhaus, 117 BBC, 10 Beatles, 54–55, 62 Bebop, 25–27 Beirut, Michael, 102 Bellamy, Edward, 108 Benjamin, Walter, 88 Berg, Alban, 45 Berlin Wall, xvi, 85, 97, 99, 104 Bernays, Edward L., 123–124 Berners-Lee, Tim, 144, 167–169, 175 Bespoke futures adopting future as client and, 110–113 anticipated technology and, 108–110 crafting, 113–116 design and, 102, 105–106, 110–111, 115–116, 119–120, 124–125, 137 downloading and, 97, 123, 132, 138 dynamic equilibrium and, 117–120 89/11 and, xvi, 97, 100–102, 105, 130 Enlightenment and, xvi, 129–139 information and, 98, 100–101, 124–126 lack of vision and, 106–108 markets and, 97–104, 118, 120, 127, 131–132, 137–138 MaSAI (Massively Synchronous Applications of the Imagination) and, xvi, 112, 120–123, 127, 193n32 199 modernists and, 105–108 mutants and, 105–108 networks and, 98–101, 108, 112–113, 116, 119–126, 133, 137 New Economy and, 97, 99, 104, 131, 138, 144–145, 190n3 participation and, 98–99, 120–121, 129 plutopian meliorism and, xvi, 127–129, 133, 137–138 prosumers and, 120–121 reperceiving and, 112–113 R-PR (Really Public Relations) and, 123–127 scenario planning and, 111–119, 191n19, 192n20 simulation and, 98, 121, 124, 126–127 strange attractors and, xvi, 117–120, 192n27 technology and, 98–104, 107–113, 116, 119, 125–127, 131–133, 136–139 television and, 101, 108, 124, 127–129, 133–137 unfinish and, 127–129, 136 uploading and, 97, 120–123, 128–129, 132 Best use, 10, 13–15, 138 Bezos, Jeff, 145 Bible, 28, 137 BitTorrent, 92 Black Album, The (Jay Z), 55 Blade Runner (Scott), 107 Blogger, 177 Blogosphere, xvii bespoke futures and, 101 culture machine and, 175, 177 Facebook and, 81, 145, 180n2 stickiness and, 30, 34 Twitter and, 34, 180n2 unimodernism and, 49, 68 Web n.0 and, 80, 92–93 INDEX Bohème, La (Puccini), 61 Boing Boing magazine, 68–69 Bollywood, 62 Bourgeoisie, 31 Bowie, David, 62 Braque, Georges, 93 Breuer, Marcel, 45 Brillat-Savarin, Jean Anthèlme, 3 Brin, Sergey, 144, 174–176 Broadband technology, 9, 57 Brownian motion, 49 Burroughs, Allie Mae, 40–42 Burroughs, William, 52 Bush, Vannevar, 52, 194n6 culture machine and, 144, 147–152, 157 Engelbart and, 157 Memex and, 108, 149–151 Oppenheimer and, 150 systems theory and, 151 war effort and, 150–151 Business 2.0 magazine, 145 C3I , 146–147 Cabrini Green, 85 Calypso, 25–27 Cambodia, 107 Cambridge, 17, 36 “Can-Can” (“Orpheus in the Underworld”) (Offenbach), 62 Capitalism, 4, 13 bespoke futures and, 97–100, 103–105 Sears and, 103–105 stickiness and, 13 unimodernism and, 66, 75 Web n.0 and, 90 Capitulationism, 7, 24, 30, 182n1 Carnegie, Andrew, 166 Casablanca (film), 90 Cassette tapes, 2 CATIA 3–D software, 39 Cell phones, xiii, xvii, 17, 23, 42, 53, 56, 76, 101 Chaos theory, 117–120 Chaplin, Charlie, 45 Cheney, Dick, 99 China, 104, 107 Christians, 135 Cicero, 47 Cinema, 8, 10 micro, 56–60 stickiness and, 15 unimodernism and, 47, 52, 56–60, 63, 71 Clarke, Arthur C., 174 CNN, 58 Cobain, Kurt, 62 Code breaking, 17–18 Cold war, 101 Cole, Nat King, 62 Commercial culture, 4–5, 8 bespoke futures and, 98, 102, 108, 120, 132–134 culture machine and, 153–156, 167, 170, 172, 175–177 copyright and, 54, 88–95, 123, 164, 166, 173, 177 Mickey Mouse Protection Act and, 90 open source and, 36, 61, 69, 74–75, 91–92, 116, 121–126, 144, 170– 173, 177, 189n12 propaganda and, 124 scenario planning and, 111–119 stickiness and, 23, 28–31, 37 unimodernism and, 41, 69 Web n.0 and, 82–86 Commercial syndrome, 85–86 Communism, 97–98, 103 Compact discs (CDs), 2, 48, 53 Complex City (Simon), 39 “Computable Numbers, On” (Turing), 18 Computer Data Systems, 145 Computers, xi.

Congress and, 90 violations of, 92–93, 95 Web n.0 and, 88–95 Corian, 64 Creative Commons, 173, 189n12 bespoke futures and, 123 Mickey Mouse Protection Act and, 90 Computers (continued) Aquarians and, xv, 24, 144, 152, 157, 159–169 challenge to television of, 2 as culture machine, xiv, xvi, xv–xvi, 5 (see also Culture machine) distribution and, xiii dominance of, xii–xiii, xiv as dream machines, xiii emergence of, xii–xiii first, 146 hackers and, 22–23, 54, 67, 69, 162, 170–173 historical perspective on, 143–178 Hosts and, xv, 144, 167, 175 Hustlers and, xv, 144, 156, 162–167 intelligence test for, 19 as “Man of the Year,” xii Moore’s law and, 156, 195n13 mouse for, 158–159 participation and, xvi, 15–17, 27–35, 54, 66–67, 74–80, 98–99, 120– 121, 129, 143–147, 151, 156–165, 170, 175–178 Patriarchs and, xv, 143–144, 147–153, 156–157, 162–163, 166–168 personal, 152, 161–167 Plutocrats and, xv, 144, 152–159, 163–166, 170 production and, xiii relationship with data and, 32 Searchers and, xv–xvi, 144, 167, 174–178 simulation and, xvi, 2 (see also Simulation) Sterling on, 101–102 symbiosis and, 151–152 systems theory and, 151 ubiquity and, xiii, 22–23, 39, 57–59, 62, 74, 81–82, 87, 92–93, 125, 128, 144, 166, 177–178 Universal Turing Machine and, 18–19 201 INDEX Creative Commons (continued) open source and, 90–93, 123, 173 purpose of, 91 Web n.0 and, 90–93 Creatives, 30 Credit cards, 76 Crenshaw district, 105 Critical inquiry, 14 Cuban Missile Crisis, xi Cubism, 44, 79, 117 Cultural issues commercialism and, 4–5, 8 (see also Commercial culture) diabetic technologies and, 3–5 dominance of television and, xii, 2–5, 7–10 fan culture and, 28–32, 48, 49, 87 free culture and, 75, 92, 98–99 Freud and, 43–44 hierarchies and, 1, 24, 29, 93, 114 junk culture and, 5–10 mass/pop culture and, 13, 31, 39–40, 47–48, 53, 56–58, 61–63, 107, 109, 184n16 mechanization and, 44–45 open source and, 36, 61, 69, 74–75, 91–92, 116, 121–126, 144, 170– 173, 177, 189n12 psychology and, 16, 21–22, 42–44, 56, 151, 161 secular culture and, 133–139 Slow Food and, 5–7 stickiness and, 28–32 (see also Stickiness) Culture machine, 5 Aquarians and, xv, 24, 144, 152, 157, 159–169 bespoke futures and, 97–101, 116, 123–133, 137–138 design and, 139, 150, 160, 165, 167, 171–172, 176 development of, 143–178 downloading and, 143, 168 gaming and, 70–74 Hosts and, xv, 144, 167, 175 Hustlers and, xv, 144, 156, 162–167 information and, 46, 143–149, 152– 153, 163, 167–168, 172, 176–178 networks and, 143–144, 152, 167– 168, 172–175, 178 participation and, 15–17, 143–147, 151, 156–165, 170, 175–178 Patriarchs and, xv, 143–144, 147–153, 156–157, 162–163, 166–168 Plutocrats and, xv, 144, 152–159, 163–166, 170 postmodernism and, 39–40 Searchers and, xv–xvi, 144, 167, 174–178 simulation and, 15–17, 143–144, 147– 152, 156–160, 166–168, 175–178 stickiness and, 15–19, 27, 32, 35 technology and, 143–163, 173–174 unimodernism and, 39, 42, 46–60, 67–76 uploading and, 143, 168, 173, 175 Warriors and, 146–147 Web n.0 and, 79–85, 90–93 Cut-up fiction, 52 Cyberpunk, 68, 87, 110 Czechoslovakia, 104 Dada, 79, 186n8 Danger Mouse, 54–55 Dare, Dan, 108 Darth Vader, 90 Darwin, Charles, 133 Davis, Miles, 25–26 Dawkins, Richard, 143 Death and Life of Great American Cities, The (Jacobs), 84–85 Deconstruction, 29–31 DeLanda, Manuel, 189n8 De.lic.ious, 75 202 INDEX Design bespoke futures and, 102, 105–106, 110–111, 115–116, 119–120, 124–125, 137 control over form and, 111 culture machine and, 139, 150, 160, 165, 167, 171–172, 176 future as client and, 110–113 futurists on, 101–102 graphic, 31, 45, 64, 102, 181n7 Gropius and, 36–37 isotypes and, 44, 125, 193n34 mechanization and, 44–45 Moore’s law and, 156 open source, 36, 61, 69, 74–75, 91–92, 116, 121–126, 144, 170– 173, 177, 189n12 play and, 32–34 postmodernism and, 29–30, 39–41, 74, 79, 130, 135 power and, 32–34 tweaking and, 32–35 unimodernism and, 39, 43–46, 49, 55–56, 60, 64–8, 71–74 Design of Everyday Things, The (Norman), 16 Design Within Reach, 46 Desk jobs, 3 Dewey, John, 129 Dewey, Melvil, 80 Diabetes, 3–5, 8 “Diamond Dogs” (Bowie), 62 Dick, Philip K., 9 Difference engine, 149 Digg, 34 Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), 71, 149, 153, 163, 170 Digital video discs (DVDs), 2, 7–8, 15, 58 Digital video recorders (DVRs), 2, 7, 15, 23, 181n3 Disco, 63 Disney Concert Hall, 39 DIY (do-it-yourself) movements, 67–70 203 Dot-com bubble, 79, 145, 174 Doubleclick, 177 Downloading, xiii–xiv, 180nn1,2 animal kingdom and, 1 bespoke futures and, 97, 123, 132, 138 best use and, 13–14 commercial networks and, 4–5 communication devices and, 15–16 cultural hierarchy of, 1–2 culture machine and, 143, 168 dangers of overabundance and, 7–10 defined, 1 diabetic responses to, 3–5 disrupting flow and, 23–24 figure/ground and, xvi, 42–43, 46, 102 Freedom software and, 22–23 habits of mind and, 9–10 humans and, 1–2 information overload and, 22, 149 info-triage and, xvi, 20–23, 121, 132, 143 as intake, 5 mindfulness and, xvi, 14, 17, 20–24, 27–29, 42, 77, 79, 123, 129, 183n6 patio potato and, 9–10, 13 peer-to-peer networks and, 15, 54, 92, 116, 126 stickiness and, 13–17, 20–23, 27–29, 184n15 surfing and, 20, 80, 180n2 television and, 2 unimodernism and, 41–42, 49, 54–57, 66–67, 76–77 viral distribution and, 30, 56, 169 wants vs. needs and, 13, 37, 57 Web n.0 and, 79, 82–83, 86–87 Duchamp, Marcel, 44, 48, 94 Dymaxion map, 73 Dynabook, 161–162, 196n17 Dynamic equilibrium, 117–120 EBay, 68 Eckert, J.

pages: 317 words: 100,414

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner


Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, availability heuristic, Black Swan, butterfly effect, cloud computing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, desegregation, drone strike, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, forward guidance, Freestyle chess, fundamental attribution error, germ theory of disease, hindsight bias, index fund, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Kenneth Arrow, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mohammed Bouazizi, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, obamacare, pattern recognition, performance metric, Pierre-Simon Laplace, place-making, placebo effect, prediction markets, quantitative easing, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Skype, statistical model, stem cell, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!

Within eighteen months, an island off the coast of Florida was a base for five thousand Soviet soldiers and an array of Soviet intermediate-range nuclear missiles that could destroy Washington, DC, and New York City, and the two global superpowers were locked in a crisis that Kennedy estimated, in retrospect, had between a one-third and one-half chance of escalating into nuclear war. The story of the Cuban missile crisis that followed from the Bay of Pigs fiasco is equally familiar, but the similarities end there. Over thirteen terrifying days in October 1962, the Kennedy administration considered a range of dangerous options to counter the Soviet threat—including outright invasion—before settling on a naval blockade. As Soviet ships approached the American red line, each side tried to figure out the other’s intentions from its actions and back-channel communications. Finally an agreement was reached, war was averted, and the world exhaled. If the Bay of Pigs was the Kennedy administration’s nadir, the Cuban missile crisis was its zenith, a moment when Kennedy and his team creatively engineered a positive result under extreme pressure.

Knowing this, we might assume Kennedy cleaned house after the Bay of Pigs and surrounded himself with far superior advisers in time for the missile crisis. But he didn’t. The cast of characters in both dramas is mostly the same: the team that bungled the Bay of Pigs was the team that performed brilliantly during the Cuban missile crisis. In his 1972 classic, Victims of Groupthink, the psychologist Irving Janis—one of my PhD advisers at Yale long ago—explored the decision making that went into both the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Cuban missile crisis. Today, everyone has heard of groupthink, although few have read the book that coined the term or know that Janis meant something more precise than the vague catchphrase groupthink has become today. In Janis’s hypothesis, “members of any small cohesive group tend to maintain esprit de corps by unconsciously developing a number of shared illusions and related norms that interfere with critical thinking and reality testing.”3 Groups that get along too well don’t question assumptions or confront uncomfortable facts.

This is the root of collective folly, whether it’s Dutch investors in the seventeenth century, who became collectively convinced that a tulip bulb was worth more than a laborer’s annual salary, or American home buyers in 2005, talking themselves into believing that real estate prices could only go up. But loss of independence isn’t inevitable in a group, as JFK’s team showed during the Cuban missile crisis. If forecasters can keep questioning themselves and their teammates, and welcome vigorous debate, the group can become more than the sum of its parts. So would groups lift superforecasters up or drag them down? Some of us suspected one outcome, others the opposite, but deep down, we knew we were all guessing. Ultimately, we chose to build teams into our research for two reasons. First, in the real world, people seldom make important forecasts without discussing them with others, so getting a better understanding of forecasting in the real world required a better understanding of forecasting in groups.

pages: 173 words: 14,313

Peers, Pirates, and Persuasion: Rhetoric in the Peer-To-Peer Debates by John Logie


1960s counterculture, Berlin Wall, book scanning, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Hacker Ethic, Isaac Newton, Marshall McLuhan, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, peer-to-peer, Plutocrats, plutocrats, pre–internet, publication bias, Richard Stallman, search inside the book, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, slashdot, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Whole Earth Catalog

For years, no one was certain how close the two superpowers had come to what was then referred to as a “tactical nuclear exchange.” But a recent conference on the 40th Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis pointed up how real the danger had been. The New York Times’s coverage of the conference contained a harrowing account of the peak of the crisis, in which a Soviet submarine commander, responding to depth charges dropped by an American destroyer, ordered the preparation of the submarine’s nuclear torpedo. The Times report quotes the commander as having said: “Maybe the war has already started up there, while we are doing somersaults here! [. . .] We’re going to blast them now! We will die, but we will sink them all. We will not disgrace our navy!” (Gonzalez) The Cuban Missile Crisis functions as a generally recognized “flashpoint” within the history of the Cold War. It is the point at which the confrontation between the then-extant superpowers was most pitched, most pointed, and potentially, most destructive.

It is the point at which the confrontation between the then-extant superpowers was most pitched, most pointed, and potentially, most destructive. Within the context of the peer-to-peer debates, the showdown between the RIAA and Napster that culminated in the injunction that closed Napster parallels the Cuban Missile Crisis, featuring similarly intransigent parties mixing secret tactical exchanges with aggres- Pa r l orPr e s s 116 wwwww. p a r l or p r e s s . c om Peers, Pirates, and Persuasion sive public posturing. Like the Missile Crisis, the peer-to-peer debate prompted high-level government hearings, with representatives from the parties concerned campaigning to earn comparisons to Adlai Stevenson, who famously unveiled the “smoking gun” photographs of Soviet military installations in Cuba in October 1962 United Nations hearings.

The period immediately following the Napster “crisis,” recalled the pitched period in the 1960s when the U.S. and the Soviet Union heated up the nuclear rhetoric while confining themselves to indirect confrontations via espionage and “little wars” against small nations positioned as emblematic of “the enemy.” Skirmishes between the record industry (and industry-supporting performers) and file-traders became increasingly common, and some of these battles had the jittery energy of the spy culture celebrated in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 2003, Madonna, fresh from having recorded the theme for the latest installment in the James Bond series, completed an album enti- Pa r l orPr e s s Peer-to-Peer as Combat wwwww. p a r l or p r e s s . c om 119 tled American Life to surround the Bond theme (formally listed on the album as “‘Die Another Day’ from the MGM motion picture Die Another Day”). In coordination with the Warner Music Group, Madonna recorded a profane challenge to downloaders (she snarls “what the fuck do you think you’re doing?”)

Because We Say So by Noam Chomsky


Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Legislative Exchange Council, Chelsea Manning, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Julian Assange, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Powell Memorandum, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Slavoj Žižek, Stanislav Petrov, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks

IN HIROSHIMA’S SHADOW August 1, 2012 August 6, the anniversary of Hiroshima, should be a day of somber reflection, not only on the terrible events of that day in 1945, but also on what they revealed: that humans, in their dedicated quest to extend their capacities for destruction, had finally found a way to approach the ultimate limit. This year’s August 6 memorials have special significance. They take place shortly before the 50th anniversary of “the most dangerous moment in human history,” in the words of the historian and John F. Kennedy adviser Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., referring to the Cuban missile crisis. Graham Allison writes in the current issue of FOREIGN AFFAIRS that Kennedy “ordered actions that he knew would increase the risk not only of conventional war but also nuclear war,” with a likelihood of perhaps 50 percent, he believed, an estimate that Allison regards as realistic. Kennedy declared a high-level nuclear alert that authorized “NATO aircraft with Turkish pilots . . . [or others] . . . to take off, fly to Moscow, and drop a bomb.”

India and Pakistan have come close to nuclear war. There have been innumerable cases when human intervention aborted nuclear attack only moments before launch after false reports by automated systems. There is much to think about on August 6. Allison joins many others in regarding Iran’s nuclear programs as the most severe current crisis, “an even more complex challenge for American policymakers than the Cuban missile crisis” because of the threat of Israeli bombing. The war against Iran is already well under way, including assassination of scientists and economic pressures that have reached the level of “undeclared war,” in the judgment of the Iran specialist Gary Sick. Great pride is taken in the sophisticated cyberwar directed against Iran. The Pentagon regards cyberwar as “an act of war” that authorizes the target “to respond using traditional military force,” the WALL STREET JOURNAL reports.

But the achievements of those who have struggled for centuries for greater freedom and justice leave a legacy that can be taken up and carried forward—and must be, and soon, if hopes for decent survival are to be sustained. And nothing can tell us more eloquently what kind of creatures we are. RED LINES IN UKRAINE AND ELSEWHERE April 30, 2014 The current Ukraine crisis is serious and threatening, so much so that some commentators even compare it to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Columnist Thanassis Cambanis summarizes the core issue succinctly in the BOSTON GLOBE: “[President Vladimir V.] Putin’s annexation of the Crimea is a break in the order that America and its allies have come to rely on since the end of the Cold War— namely, one in which major powers only intervene militarily when they have an international consensus on their side, or failing that, when they’re not crossing a rival power’s red lines.”

Interventions by Noam Chomsky


Albert Einstein, Ayatollah Khomeini, cuban missile crisis, energy security, facts on the ground, failed state, Monroe Doctrine, nuremberg principles, old-boy network, Ralph Nader, Thorstein Veblen, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, éminence grise

A large part of the opposition to Bush’s war is based on recognition that Iraq is only a special case of the “imperial ambition” declared forcefully in last September’s (2002) National Security Strategy. For perspective on our current situation, it may be useful to attend to very recent history. Last October (2002) the nature of threats to peace was dramatically underscored at the summit meeting in Havana on the fortieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, attended by key participants from Cuba, Russia, and the United States. The fact that we survived the crisis was a miracle. We learned that the world was saved from possible nuclear devastation by one Russian submarine captain, Vasily Arkhipov, who countermanded an order to fire nuclear-tipped torpedos when Russian submarines were attacked by U.S. destroyers near Kennedy’s “quarantine” line.

At the same time, the war drums began to beat to mobilize the population for an invasion of Iraq. And the campaign opened for the midterm congressional elections, which would determine whether the administration would be able to carry out its radical international and domestic agenda. The final days of 2002, foreign-policy specialist Michael Krepon wrote, were “the most dangerous since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis,” which Arthur Schlesinger described, reasonably, as “the most dangerous moment in human history.” Krepon’s concern was nuclear proliferation in “Iran, Iraq, North Korea and the Indian subcontinent,” an “unstable nuclear-proliferation belt stretching from Pyongyang to Baghdad.” Bush administration initiatives in 2002–2003 have only increased the threats in and near this unstable belt. The National Security Strategy declared that the United States—alone—has the right to carry out “preventive war”: preventive, not preemptive, using military force to eliminate a perceived threat, even if invented or imagined.

North Korea has a deterrent—not nuclear weapons (at the time of writing), but massed artillery at the Demilitarized Zone, aimed at Seoul, the capital of South Korea, and at tens of thousands of American troops just south of the border. The troops are scheduled to be withdrawn, outside of artillery range, arousing concerns in North and South Korea about U.S. intentions. In October 2002, the United States charged that North Korea had secretly begun a program to enrich uranium, in violation of a 1994 agreement. The nuclear brinkmanship since then has reminded some observers of the Cuban Missile Crisis. This year (2003), Washington has taught an ugly lesson to the world: If you want to defend yourself from us, you had better mimic North Korea and pose a credible military threat.1 North Korea also failed a second criterion for a U.S. target: It is one of the poorest and most miserable countries in the world. But North Korea has a geostrategic significance that might make it subject to U.S. attack—if the deterrent can be countered.

pages: 306 words: 36,032

John F. Kennedy and the Race to the Moon (Palgrave Studies in the History of Science and Technology) by John M. Logsdon


Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis

Obviously the Russians were well ahead of us at that time . . . But by 1963, our effort had accelerated considerably. There was a very real chance we were even with the Soviets in this effort. In addition, our relations with the Soviets, following the Cuban missile crisis and the test ban treaty, were much improved—so the President felt that, without harming any of those three goals, we now were in a position to ask the Soviets to join us and make it efficient and economical for both countries.7 T O T H E M O O N T O G E T H E R : P U R S U I T O F A N I L L U S I O N? 177 A New “Strategy of Peace” In the aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis, President Kennedy sought ways of lessening the U.S.-Russian tensions and mistrust that had led to that situation. He first tried to once again engage Nikita Khrushchev in discussions on a test ban treaty, but progress toward that objective was slow.

O’Donnell will not feel it wise to schedule the President’s time and that the President will confirm this judgment.”10 As Webb wrote his October 24 letter, President Kennedy was totally involved with dealing with the problem of Soviet missiles in Cuba, and most certainly was not going to take time to referee the NASA dispute with his science adviser. Webb and Wiesner talked by telephone on October 29, the Monday after the weekend during which the Cuban missile crisis was resolved. Wiesner said that his message to the president would not be to overrule any decision NASA might reach, but rather to be sure that a full and honest assessment had been made of all the options; Wiesner still questioned whether this was the case. Webb told Wiesner he “thought it better not to go to a formal hearing or involve the President personally in the decision,” but Wiesner thought that “involving the President couldn’t be avoided” because someone was sure to ask Kennedy whether the decision was made after the best possible analysis.

Like many communications to the president from government agencies, this letter had been referred to one of the staff agencies of the executive office, in this case BOB, for review and a decision of whether it needed direct presidential attention. Kennedy may well have wondered why he had not heard from Webb after asking him about this possibility on his September tour, and that could have added to his concern about the accuracy of the Time article. Of course, Kennedy had also been immersed with the Cuban missile crisis and the midterm congressional elections in the interim. Budget director Bell prepared a November 13 memorandum on the NASA budget situation that incorporated the schedule and budget estimates in Webb’s October letter; this memorandum was distributed to all participants in the meeting. In his memorandum, Bell identified two policy issues on which presidential guidance was needed: 1. “The pace at which the manned lunar landing should proceed, in view of the budgetary implications and other considerations,” and 2.

pages: 589 words: 197,971

A Fiery Peace in a Cold War: Bernard Schriever and the Ultimate Weapon by Neil Sheehan


Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, double helix, European colonialism, John von Neumann, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, operation paperclip, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, uranium enrichment

Chapters 72–77: Neufeld, Ballistic Missiles in the United States Air Force, 1945–1960; Heppenheimer’s Countdown; Zubok and Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War; Taubman’s Khrushchev; Robert Kennedy’s 1968 Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis; Fred Kaplan’s 1983 The Wizards of Armageddon; Anatoly Dobrynin’s 1995 In Confidence; Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali’s 1997 One Hell of a Gamble: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964; The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Ernest May and Philip Zelikow’s 1997 editing of the tapes of the White House meetings during the crisis; Max Frankel’s 2004 High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Cuban Missile Crisis; Fursenko and Naftali’s 2006 Khrushchev’s Cold War; Michael Dobbs’s 2008 One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War; the official SAC history, The Development of Strategic Air Command; Wynn’s RAF Nuclear Deterrent Forces.

William Taubman, the Amherst College scholar whose splendid biography of Khrushchev won him a Pulitzer Prize, says there was nothing left to put in a coffin. All that remained of Nedelin, he writes, was “a marshal’s shoulder strap and half-melted keys to his office safe.” The calamity did not stop test launches of the R-16 and the ICBM was deployed in 1962. The Soviets were, however, still having trouble with the weapon in October 1962 when the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred and Khrushchev had a total of twenty operational ICBMs to the 160 Kennedy possessed. Preparations to fire the R-16 continued to require several hours rather than the thirty minutes Yangel had posited and that was eventually achieved. “Before we get it ready to launch,” Kirill Moskalenko, a ranking Red Army marshal and friend of Khrushchev from Second World War days, warned in the midst of the crisis, “there won’t even be a wet spot left of any of us.” 66.

From previous aerial photos of R-12 sites in Russia, the CIA photo interpreters knew exactly what they were looking at. Kennedy, who had been out of town, got the news on the morning of the 16th, when he was shown the photographs at the White House and they were interpreted for him. “He can’t do that to me!” he exclaimed in his rage at Khrushchev. According to Max Frankel in his first-rate account of the drama, High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Cuban Missile Crisis, Robert Kennedy’s reaction was more earthy. “Oh shit! shit! shit! Those sons of bitches Russians.” The president quickly got his anger against Khrushchev under control. He was also able to put himself in Khrushchev’s place and see the situation from the Soviet leader’s perspective. In the opening sessions of the ad hoc Executive Committee of the National Security Council, or ExCom as it came to be known, which he convened in secret session, he said it was clear that the sixteen Jupiters in Turkey would have to be one of the bargaining chips in any deal they made with the Soviet dictator to lever his missiles out of Cuba.

pages: 241 words: 64,424

Project Azorian: The CIA and the Raising of the K-129 by Norman Polmar, Michael White


cuban missile crisis, Maui Hawaii

Baker III, from Cold War Submarines) The next-generation Soviet SSBN would not appear until the late 1960s, when the effects of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 led to a further acceleration of Soviet nuclear strike forces. The first Project 667A/Yankee was completed in 1967 with large-scale production following. The older, far-less-capable Golf SSB and Hotel SSBN missile submarines continued to have a role. As Yankee SSBNs became available, the older missile submarines were employed as theater nuclear strike platforms and some were employed as missile test platforms, or were converted to communication relay ships. However, the Golf-class submarines had important political-military roles. Following the Cuban missile crisis in the fall of 1962 that brought the United States and Soviet Union closer to nuclear conflict than at any other time during the Cold War, the Soviet government agreed not to introduce nuclear weapons into Cuba.

Periodically during the Cold War the U.S. Navy believed that the Soviets were working on just such a breakthrough in anti-submarine warfare. The early 1960s were violent, with several confrontations between the Soviet Union and the United States: the shootdown of a U-2 spyplane over the USSR in 1960, the Berlin crisis of 1961 that saw U.S. and Soviet tanks facing off, the nuclear confrontation during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, the ongoing Vietnam War with Soviet weapons (including jet fighters) being supplied to the forces fighting the United States, and the North Korean capture of the U.S. spy ship Pueblo in January 1968, an act that many Americans believed was encouraged if not directly supported by the Soviet Union. Thus, there was some Soviet concern that the loss of the K-129 could be a harbinger of some new American anti-submarine capability, with such an attack being completely believable with the U.S.

James Brigade (submarine) Brooks, William burial of Soviet sailors Burke, Les Cannon, Charles capture vehicle characteristics failure maraging steel problem mated with lift ship operation of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Azorian revelation history of Project Azorian–64, 69, 74–75, 85, 87, 110, 123 plans recovery of K-129 Chazhma (Soviet AGI) Chistyakov, Rear Adm. N. B. Cluster Lance system Cohen, Jerry Colby, William E. conspiracies related to K-129 related to Scorpion Coordinated Equipment Co. Corona satellite Craven, Dr. John purpose of Azorian rogue submarine theory Crooke, Curtis Cuban missile crisis Cuss I (drill ship) Daniel Boone (SSBN 629) Davis, Ed de Poix, Vice Adm. Vincent Deep Submergence Systems Project (DSSP) Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Divisions (submarine) 10th 16th 26th 29th 45th Dmitry Pozharsky (Soviet CL) Dobrynin, Anatoly Drabos, James Drake, Bob Drew, Christopher DuBridge, Lee Dunham, Roger Dygalo, Rear Adm. V. A. aboard K-129 commands B-67 conspiracy theories protests K-129 assignment search for the K-129 Echo II (Soviet SSGN) Eisenhower, Gen.

pages: 570 words: 151,609

Into the Black: The Extraordinary Untold Story of the First Flight of the Space Shuttle Columbia and the Astronauts Who Flew Her by Rowland White, Richard Truly


Albert Einstein, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, Maui Hawaii, Mercator projection, Ronald Reagan, V2 rocket, William Langewiesche

A young Bob Crippen on his first horse, Sugar, beside the house in Porter, Texas, where he grew up. In the early 1950s Collier’s magazine laid out German rocket pioneer Wernher von Braun’s vision for space, serving as an inspiration for many who later became part of the space program. Last of the gunfighters. During the Cuban Missile Crisis Dick Truly flew Vought F-8 Crusaders from the USS Enterprise, the Navy’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. With dreams of becoming a test pilot, Bob Crippen earned his wings of gold as a naval aviator before flying A-4 Skyhawks off the deck of the USS Independence during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Crip is kneeling third from the right. Bob Crippen trained as a test pilot at Chuck Yeager’s Aerospace Research Pilot School at Edwards Air Force Base in 1965. One of his instructors was Dick Truly. Crip is in the back row, far right.

(He was luckier than “Leaky,” the squadron mate who, caught short in the cockpit, managed to pee into his leather flying glove without spilling a drop.) In the end, though, “Slats” didn’t stick. Everyone just knew the tan, brown-eyed Texan with the crewcut as Crip. After his first night landing aboard an aircraft carrier he thought, I can do just about anything. For a while, as he flew from the deck of the Navy’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, it looked like that might include war. Test flying, though, remained his goal, and he filled in the application form in 1964. It offered him a choice: Do you want to go to the Navy’s test pilot school at Patuxent River? Or would you be prepared to go to the Empire Test Pilots School in the UK, or train with the Air Force instead? He figured the odds of getting in were better if he said yes to all three of them.

When his orders came through telling him he’d been posted to Edwards Air Force Base, he was surprised to discover he’d be a student at an outfit called the Aerospace Research Pilot School—I thought I was going to test pilot school. The syllabus, he learned, included spaceflight. And his instructor on the space dynamics and control course was a young Navy pilot who, like Crip, had only just over a year before been flying off carriers during the Cuban Missile Crisis. His name was Lieutenant Dick Truly. THREE Edwards Air Force Base, 1963 When Dick Truly arrived at Edwards with his wife, Cody, two young sons and the family dog after a long cross-country drive, he felt like a cowboy just arrived at IBM. There were few places in the world that were more glamorous than Edwards. Like Peyton Place, thought Truly. The vast air base, scratched onto the Mojave Desert alongside the endless runways provided by Rogers Dry Lake Bed, was teeming with young couples glowing in the face of their illustrious profession: flying and testing the world’s most advanced, high-performance aircraft.

pages: 225 words: 54,010

A Short History of Progress by Ronald Wright


Albert Einstein, Atahualpa, Bretton Woods, British Empire, clean water, Columbian Exchange, cuban missile crisis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Haber-Bosch Process, Hernando de Soto, invention of agriculture, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, nuclear winter, out of africa, Parkinson's law, Ronald Reagan, Thomas Malthus, urban sprawl

No doubt many will say that we stand here to prove those gloomy Victorians wrong. But do we? They may have been wrong on the details they imagined for our times, but they were right to foresee trouble. Just ahead lay the Great War and 12 million dead,42 the Russian Revolution, the Great Slump — leading to Hitler, the death camps, the Second World War (with 50 million dead), the atom bomb. And these in turn to the Korean War, the Cold War, the near-fatal Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, Cambodia, Rwanda. Even the most pessimistic Victorian might have been surprised to learn that the twentieth century would slaughter more than 100 million in its wars — twice the entire population of the Roman Empire.43 The price of history does indeed go up. The Victorian scientific romances had two modern descendants: mainstream science fiction, and profound social satire set in nightmare futures.

Rees is especially worried by potential rogue technologies, such as bioengineering, nanotechnology, cybernetics, and certain “doomsday” experiments on the frontiers of physics. As an astronomer, he advocates establishing a small human colony in space as soon as possible, to give intelligent life a second chance if things go wrong. But if we ruin the earth, are we intelligent? And why should we deserve another chance? 55. Declassification of American and Soviet sources from the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and statements by those involved, show that the world came much closer to nuclear war than had been thought. Robert McNamara, then U.S. defence secretary, has written “we came within a hairbreadth without realising it.” See ibid., pp. 25–28. 56. Following controversial legal rulings in the United States, biotech and agribusiness companies have taken out patents on crops (and even animals) they claim to have “invented.”

See also progress traps violence, 33–34, 71–73, 126, 139n5, 140n6 worldwide, 55–56 classes, 33, 56, 63–64, 71, 108, 109 climate change, 23, 37–38, 51–53, 125, 130, 148n53, 182n53 Cold War, 121, 133n7, 181n50 collapse of civilization, 8, 92–93 literary portrayals, 119–20, 122–23 natural or social, 56, 84 scientists’ warnings, 125–26, 181n52 three aspects, 107–8, 128 typical behaviour before, 129 worldwide, 125, 181n52 colonialism, 33, 139n5 communism, 124 Coningsby (Disraeli), 119 consumption and reserves, 148n52 Cook, James (Captain Cook), 58, 62 Copan, 98, 100, 101, 169n66 Cortés, Hernando, 51 “cosmic bombshells,” 139n2 Critias (Plato), 87–88 Cro-Magnons, 18, 20–22, 23–24, 26, 36, 37, 38, 66, 137n31, 137n35 genetic studies, 21, 137n32 and Neanderthals, see Neanderthals crops, 42, 44, 47, 114, 144n30, 144n31, 144n33, 152n22 failures, 130 see also farming; food production Crosby, Alfred, 130 Cuban Missile Crisis, 121, 182n55 cultures adaptations, 29–30 dangers, 30 defined, 32–33 outrunning evolution, 35 transmissible through speech, 13 cuneiform script, 65 Curie, Marie, 12 Darwin, Charles, 11, 12 Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (Gibbon), 85–86 democracy, 6 “deregulation,” 127, 184n63 Descent of Man (Darwin), 12 Devil, 49, 147n46 Dickens, Charles, 119 dinosaurs, extinction, 31, 139n2 disease of twentieth century, 122, 123, 180n44 future concern, 130 Old World, in America, 112, 113, 116–17, 173n10, 173n11 dogs, 43 domestication, 33, 149n1 animals, 43–44 plants, 42, 44, 47 Dos Pilas, 99 drought, 101, 167n63, 168n64 dystopias, 122, 123 Easter Island, 57–64 collapse, 61–63, 82, 83, 129, 132 contact with Europe, 57–58, 62, 151n17 Easter Island, Earth Island (Bahn & Flenley), 63, 149n9 Ecological Imperialism (Crosby), 141n17 Eden, 9, 66, 67, 68 Egypt civilization, emergence, 33, 149n1 conservatism, 85, 103 disease, 104, 170n73 environment, 103, 109–10, 169n70 farming, 103 population growth, 103–4, 170n71 restraint in technology, 46 Einstein, Albert, 5, 118 Eiseley, Loren, 17 El Mirador, 95, 164n42 Enemy of the People (Ibsen), 180n41 Engels, Friedrich, 181n50 entrenched behaviour, 79, 102 Epic of Gilgamesh, 65–66, 70, 75–77, 152n24, 156n56, 157n59 epidemics, see Black Death in Europe Erewhon (Butler), 119, 122 European conquest of Americas, 37 Spanish, see Spanish conquests evolutionary theory, 9, 12 extinctions, 31, 37–40, 63, 141n18, 142n21 famines, 74, 105, 156n51, 171n76.

pages: 518 words: 107,836

How Not to Network a Nation: The Uneasy History of the Soviet Internet (Information Policy) by Benjamin Peters


Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, Benoit Mandelbrot, bitcoin, Brownian motion, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer age, conceptual framework, continuation of politics by other means, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Davies, double helix, Drosophila, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, hive mind, index card, informal economy, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, linear programming, mandelbrot fractal, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, Paul Erdős, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, scientific mainstream, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, stochastic process, technoutopianism, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, transaction costs, Turing machine

Kennedy’s top men to discuss the impending peril of Soviet cybernetics, only to have his meeting interrupted by the announcement that surveillance satellites had just uncovered photos of Soviet missiles in Cuba.109 By the time the dust settled after the Cuban missile crisis, Soviet cybernetics no longer agitated the administration, which had reviewed the science and did not deem it an urgent threat. It is a strange twist of history, then, that the international crisis that is considered the zenith of cold war hostility (the Cuban missile crisis) also defused and derailed mounting American anxieties about the “Soviet cybernetic menace.”110 Although U.S. and Soviet intelligence officers alternately fretted about or enthused over the possibilities of a cybernetically coordinated Soviet power, the facts about the practical debates among Soviet scientists point in a very different direction.

The next chapter extends and complicates this theme in its history and analysis of the central and longest-lasting attempt to network the Soviet Union. 4 Staging the OGAS, 1962 to 1969 The year 1962 proved to be a tumultuous one for the world. Khrushchev’s grasp on the reigns of the Soviet state began to slip in the face of mounting criticism, and Kennedy’s Bay of Pigs invasion metastasized into the Cuban missile crisis, probably the closest the world has yet come to a nuclear world war.1 Behind the scenes to these potentially cataclysmic situations, a small team of Soviet cyberneticists who were located in Kiev and Moscow were committed to building “electronic socialism” under the guise of the All-State Automated System, or OGAS. The OGAS Project was the Soviet Union’s attempt to build a national computer network project that would network the command economy, automate and optimize the immense coordination problems besetting that economy, and thereby speed the grand socialist experiment toward a prosperous and stable Communist future.

See also ARPANET (Advanced Research Projects Agency Network); ASU (avtomatizirovannaya sistema upravleniya); OGAS (obshche-gosudarstvennaya avtomatizirovannya sistema) project aborted attempts, 12 beliefs and debate about, 8, 169 and chess, 176, 178–180 civilian, 91, 94, 97 and closed cultures, 192 definitions of, 10 distributed, 55, 94, 96, 100, 120 EASU (Economic Automatic Management System), 81, 86–87, 91, 103–104 global-local, 121–122 heterarchical, 57, 96, 175 and human condition, 203–204 literature on, 8–9 military, 7, 12, 83, 86–89, 93–94, 144 national, 54–56, 97–98, 100, 119–120 packet-switching, 94–96, 198, 200 and private interests, 200, 202–203 rational system for economic control, 101–105 and social change, 171–172 survivable, 95, 97 Unified Communication System (ESS), 81, 97–101, 103–104 Computers brain-computer analogy, 18, 27, 95–96, 100, 118–119 chess programs, 179 and cybernetic sciences, 16, 37 and economic calculations, 84–85 first electronic computers, 126 and military innovations, 83 minds as, 18, 37–38, 53–54, 119 and nuclear bombs, 25 personal, 186 Soviet term for, 10 Soviet terms for, 38 Computers, Chess, and Long-Range Planning, 177 Computer technology, 3, 8, 104–105 Conditioned reflexes, 34, 40 Cooley, Charles Horton, 55, 202 Council for Cybernetics, 44 Council of Ministers, 214 CSA (tsentral’noe statisticheskoe upravleniye). See Central Statistical Administration (CSA) Cuban missile crisis, 45 Cybernetic Revolutionaries: Technology and Politics in Allende’s Chile, 9 Cybernetics, 3, 11–12. See also Economic cybernetics; Soviet cybernetics American consolidation of, 17–24 brain-computer analogy, 18, 27, 95–96, 100, 118–119 Chile, 27–28 as communication science, 21 and computers, 16, 37 contemporary scholarship, 7–9 defining, 15–16, 45–46 eastern Europe, 28 England, 26–27 feedback loops, 21–22 France, 25–26 heterarchy, 22–24 and information/game theory, 20 Macy Conferences on Cybernetics, 18–19 methodology, 20 and models of mind, 29 origin of term, 17 as postwar systems science, 15, 24 Soviet criticism of, 30–32 vocabulary of, 16, 19 Cybernetics, or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine, 17–18, 30, 35–37, 47, 50, 82, 198 Cybernetics: In the Service of Communism, 44, 46 Cybersyn network, 9, 27–28, 54, 197, 199 Cybertonia, 130–136 Danil’chenko, I.

pages: 369 words: 90,630

Mindwise: Why We Misunderstand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want by Nicholas Epley


affirmative action, airport security, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Cass Sunstein, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, friendly fire, invisible hand, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, payday loans, Peter Singer: altruism, pirate software, Richard Thaler, school choice, the scientific method, theory of mind

(August 19, 2010). When doctors admit their mistakes. New York Times. Retrieved from AFTERWORD: BEING MINDWISE 1. Much of this information comes from Arthur Schlesinger’s foreword to Kennedy’s autobiographical account of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Thirteen Days. Many other books cover the crisis in considerably more detail. 2. The full set of letters sent between Khrushchev and Kennedy, from both before and after the Cuban Missile Crisis, can be found here: The opening letter I’m referring to is from October 26, 1962. 3. Kislyakov, A. (2003). Hotline: 40 years of building up trust. CDI Russia Weekly 263: article 12. 4. Cited in Schlessinger’s foreword to Thirteen Days. 5.

How to Break a Terrorist (Alexander) How to Win Friends and Influence People (Carnegie), Principle 8 of, 8.1, 8.2 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) human rights, dehumanization and Hume, David hummingbirds humor, sense of, experiments on perception of hunters, anthropomorphism and hurricanes, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 7.1, 7.2 Hussein, Saddam, 1.1, 8.1 Hutus Hyde, Janet Ickes, William, 1.1, 8.1 illusion of courage, 5.1, nts.1n immigration, immigrants, dehumanization and Indian Territory, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 inference, prf.1, 3.1 MPFC and, 3.1, 3.2 neuroimaging experiments and, 3.1, nts.1n inhibition hypothesis intelligence, experiments on perception of, 1.1, 1.2 intentions, prf.1, prf.2 interrogations intrinsic motivators, 3.1, nts.1n introspection, prf.1, 1.1 bigotry and, 2.1, 2.2 limitations to understanding of self through planning fallacy and shoppers’ preferences and Invisible Gorilla, The: and Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us (Simons and Chabris), nts.1n Iraq Al Qaeda in U.S. invasion and occupation of, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1 Islam, Muslims Israel, 6.1, 8.1, 8.2 Jahoda, Gustav James, William, 2.1, 2.2 Japan, U.S. firebombing of, n job interviews Johnson, Todd Jolie, Angelina Jung, Carl juries inadmissible evidence instructions and personal attendance of witnesses before Katrina, Hurricane, 4.1, 7.1, 7.2 Keaton, Diane Keller, Helen Keller, Maryann Kennedy, John F. Cuban missile crisis and, aft.1, aft.2 Khrushchev, Nikita S., aft.1, aft.2 kidnappings, n King, B. B. King, Martin Luther, Jr., n assassination of Kismet (MIT robot) knowledge “curse” of egocentrism and, 5.1, nts.1n others as main source of self and, prf.1, 1.1, 2.1, 8.1 stereotypes and, 6.1, 6.2 Koop, C. Everett Kruger, Justin Kunda, Ziva, n Landon, Alfred M. language child-rearing and knowledge and LaPiere, Richard, racial bigotry experiment of, 2.1, 2.2 leadership, experiments on perception of “legilimency” Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm von LeMay, Curtis, n Lenny (guitar) lens problem (interpretation) 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 Lepidoptera, 4.1, 4.2 lesbians, “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy and Lewis, John “Jordan”, n Lewis, Ray liberals, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 6.1, 6.2 Lie to Me, 8.1, nts.1n Lincoln, Abraham Lippmann, Walter Literary Digest lithops littering, context and reduction of Little League baseball Lockheed Martin, Mars Lander loss and, n Lorre, Peter Love at Goon Park: Harry Harlow and the Science of Affection (Blum), nts.1n Lovett, Debbie Lucille (guitar) lying, 7.1, 8.1, nts.1n, nts.2n microexpressions as predictor of perspective getting and Madonna Maine “Majority of Parents Abuse Children, Children Report” (Onion) Male Brain, The (Brizendine) Manilow, Barry, 5.1, nts.1n Marist Institute for Public Opinion, superpowers poll by, xx, nts.1n Markman, Howard marriage egocentrism and gay rights and, 5.1, 5.2 gift giving and, 8.1, nts.1n speaker-listener technique and Mars Lander, n Masood, Talat Masoro, Edward Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) mass media “nonverbal analysts” and perceived bias in, 2.1, 5.1, nts.1n McCain, John, 5.1, nts.1n mealworms Mearsheimer, John media bias, 2.1, 5.1, nts.1n medicine infant surgery without anesthesia and malpractice liability and physician empathy and Memphis, Tenn., King assassination in men emotions and, 6.1, 8.1 frequency of sex thoughts of see also gender; women Merchant of Venice, The (Shakespeare) mere-presence effect Michigan, University of, n Microsoft Word Milgram, Stanley, obedience to authority study of, 2.1, 2.2 Miller, Elaine mind, human associative networks and conscious versus unconscious functions of ego and free will concept and habits and house metaphor for iceberg metaphor for, 2.1, 2.2 naïve realism and, 2.1, 5.1 psychics misrepresentation of mind reading (insight) actions’ context importance to anthropomorphism and, see anthropomorphism attractiveness perception and, 1.1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 5.1, 5.2, 8.1 blindness versus deafness as limitation to, 8.1, nts.1n body language and, 8.1, 8.2, nts.1n, nts.2n bystander and crowd behavior and, 7.1, 7.2, nts.1n cerebral cortex and cooperation and correspondence bias and, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 8.1 cultural influences and dating and deception and, 1.1, 1.2 dehumanization and, see dehumanization egocentrism and, see egocentrism empathy and, prf.1, 3.1, 3.2, 6.1, 6.2, 8.1 feedback and, 8.1, 8.2, nts.1n first impressions and flat-earth thinking and, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, nts.1n forgiveness and friends and relatives and inference and, prf.1, 3.1 interpretation (“lens problem”) and, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 intrinsic motivators and, 3.1, nts.1n limitations to, prf.1, 2.1 lying and, 7.1, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, nts.1n, nts.2n Marist “superpowers” poll and, xx, nts.1n microexpressions and misunderstanding causes of behavior and motivation perception and observing others’ gaze and, 3.1, 4.1 others’ impressions of you measured by overconfidence in skill at performance appraisals and personal perspective (“neck problem”) and, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 perspective getting and, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, aft.1, nts.1n perspective taking and, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 8.6, nts.1n Quiz Bowl experiment and, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3 reasoning and romantic partners and, 1.1, 1.2, nts.1n self-knowledge and, prf.1, 1.1, 2.1, 8.1 self-worth perception and sensing minds of others and, 3.1, nts.1n shortcomings in, xx, 1.1, 3.1, nts.1n sixth sense nature of snap judgments and social interactions and, prf.1, prf.2, 3.1, 4.1, nts.1n speed of motion and, 4.1, nts.1n stereotypes and, see stereotypes talking stick and misunderstanding, overconfidence and monkeys Morse code Muller, Erich “Mancow” musical instruments, anthropomorphism and mutual fund managers, context of success of Nagin, Ray, 4.1, 4.2 naïve realism, 2.1, 5.1 Napoleon I, Emperor of France, 7.1, 7.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), n National Basketball Association (NBA), n National Football League (NFL) dehumanization of players by owners in slow-motion replays of tackles in, n National Public Radio (NPR), 2.1, 4.1 Native Americans, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 8.1 Nazis (National Socialists) Nebraska neck problem (personal perspective), 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 Nelson, Willie neuroimaging inference and, 3.1, nts.1n religious beliefs and neurons Nevada, drone operations in Newcastle, University of Newlywed Game New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina and, 4.1, 7.1 Newton, Elizabeth, 5.1, nts.1n New York City, 3.1, 5.1 New York Times, 8.1, aft.1 NHI (No Humans Involved) Nimoy, Leonard, 7.1, 7.2 Niobrara River Nisbett, Richard, n Noland, Chuck (char.)

.), 7.1, 7.2 sports, context of success in spotlight effect, 5.1, 5.2, 8.1, nts.1n Standing Bear, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5 Stanford University, 2.1, 3.1 Star Trek Steffel, Mary stereotypes, prf.1, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1, 8.1, 8.2, aft.1, nts.1n accuracy and error of African Americans and, 6.1, 6.2 aging and, 6.1, 6.2 Asians and circle test experiment and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4 conflict resolution and differences and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 8.1, nts.1n, nts.2n expectations and self-fulfillment of explanation and, 6.1, 6.2 gender and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, nts.1n, nts.2n groups and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, nts.1n knowledge and, 6.1, 6.2 line length experiment and, 6.1, 6.2 politics and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4 race and ethnicity and reality and visible facts versus invisible states and, 6.1, 6.2, nts.1n wealth inequality and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, nts.1n Stevens, Martin Stevenson, DeShawn, n stock market, anthropomorphism and, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 students, stereotype study of, 6.1, nts.1n Stumbling on Happiness (Gilbert) Stutesman, John suicide bombers, 3.1, 3.2 Sunstein, Cass Super Bowl Supreme Court, Canadian Sweden, Vasa disaster and, 5.1, nts.1n synapses “Take Five to Live Light” campaign Taliban talking stick Talking to the Enemy (Atran), nts.1n Target taxes, taxation taxicabs Taylor, Elizabeth teasing telepathy telephones, 4.1, 5.1, 8.1, nts.1n egocentrism and, 5.1, 5.2 television, anthropomorphism and terrorism, terrorists, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 8.1, nts.1n, nts.2n parochial altruism and, 3.1, nts.1n Tesh, John, n Tevatron, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 texting, 5.1, 6.1 Thaler, Richard Theory of Moral Sentiments, The (Smith) Titchener, Edward tobacco Todd, Ashley, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 toddlers, social testing of, prf.1, nts.1n Tools of the Mind, n torture issue, 5.1, nts.1n Tour de France Toyota, GM intrinsic motivation experiment and Transportation Security Administration (TSA), U.S., 8.1, 8.2 travel, social engagement versus solitude and Trigger (guitar) T-shirt experiment, 5.1, nts.1n Tutsis Twitter, 2.1, 5.1, 5.2, 6.1, aft.1 typecasting ubuntu concept United Nations (UN) United States of America Afghan war and, 3.1, 8.1 Cuban missile crisis and, aft.1, aft.2 Iraq invasion and, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1 September 11, 2001 terror attacks and, 3.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 5.1, nts.1n, nts.2n stereotyping of aging in World War II and, 3.1, nts.1n Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) University of Michigan Hospitals vacuum cleaners Vance, Walter, 7.1, 7.2 Vanilla Ice, n Vasa, 5.1, nts.1n Vaughan, Stevie Ray vegetarianism, anthropomorphism and, 4.1, 4.2 Velveteen Rabbit, The (Williams) Vermont Vietnam War vision brain function and, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 color perception and deafness compared with loss of, 8.1, nts.1n defining groups and, 6.1, 6.2 saccades and visual cortex Wahlberg, Mark, 5.1, nts.1n Wallace, David Foster Wall Street Journal, nts.1n Walt Disney Company, 4.1, 4.2 Wansink, Brian wants warbots, 4.1, 4.2, nts.1n Washington, D.C.

pages: 288 words: 92,175

Rise of the Rocket Girls: The Women Who Propelled Us, From Missiles to the Moon to Mars by Nathalia Holt

Bill Gates: Altair 8800, British Empire, computer age, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, financial independence, Grace Hopper, Isaac Newton, labor-force participation, Mars Rover, music of the spheres, new economy, operation paperclip, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Steve Jobs, V2 rocket, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Works Progress Administration, Yogi Berra

Ceruzzi explains how the Mariner 1 failure was a “combination of a hardware failure and software bug.” Material about the Mercury 7 and the Saturn rocket can be found in Richard W. Orloff and David M. Harland, Apollo: The Definitive Sourcebook (New York: Springer, 2006). The Cuban missile crisis is described in Sheldon M. Stern, The Cuban Missile Crisis in American Memory: Myths Versus Reality (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2012). Both this book and the Kennedy Presidential Library website ( describe the presence of Jupiter missiles in Turkey. However, the role that the missiles played in the crisis wasn’t revealed to the American public until 1987. Pythagoras, the Greek mathematician, is credited with the saying “There is geometry in the humming of the strings.

When an American spy plane spotted nuclear-missile-site construction by the Soviets in Cuba, President Kennedy placed a blockade of American ships around the island. Cuba was cut off from the world. Addressing the nation on October 22, Kennedy said, “My fellow citizens: let no one doubt that this is a difficult and dangerous effort on which we have set out. No one can foresee precisely what course it will take or what costs or casualties will be incurred.” It seemed the world was accelerating toward nuclear war. The roots of the Cuban missile crisis were tangled up in American rocketry. In 1961, Americans had deployed Jupiter nuclear missiles to Turkey, adjacent to the Soviet Union. And these medium-range ballistic missiles were developed by none other than Wernher von Braun at the Army Ballistic Missile Agency. At last, Kennedy brokered a deal with the Soviets. They would dismantle their weaponry in Cuba in exchange for a pledge from the United States not to invade the island.

pages: 415 words: 123,373

Inviting Disaster by James R. Chiles


Airbus A320, airline deregulation, crew resource management, cuban missile crisis, Exxon Valdez, Maui Hawaii, Milgram experiment, North Sea oil, Piper Alpha, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance

The school superintendent, who along with the school board had known about and agreed to the purchase of the cheap gas, lost his son in the explosion and his job afterward. Said the final report on the disaster, which cost 298 lives: “It was the collective faults of average individuals, ignorant of or indifferent to the need of precautionary measures, where they cannot, in their lack of knowledge, visualize a danger or hazard.” MINUTEMEN ON THE HIGH PLAINS During the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, apparently there was no time to visualize, either, about something that could have gone terribly wrong for the world at Malmstrom Air Force Base. During the showdown with the USSR, defense contractors and air force personnel rushed to get the new solid-fueled Minuteman 1 missiles up and working in case the president wanted to fire them at the Soviet Union. Malmstrom, near Great Falls, Montana, was the first base in the country to receive the new missiles.

When I went for a walk around the ship to stay awake, I kept seeing human faces in the outline of the machinery, a minor but unsettling hallucination. The men did their routine jobs well enough, but no one had much energy for tackling the difficult tasks, which needed protracted troubleshooting. Fortunately our endurance run ended soon afterward when reinforcement workers arrived via helicopter. But some workers don’t have that luxury. Recalling the brutally long days and nights of the Cuban Missile Crisis, presidential adviser Ted Sorensen said one of the most worrisome revelations was how sleeplessness eroded the powers of judgment. THE CAN-DO MAN Early-morning fatigue played a part in a very close call with a British airliner in June 1990. The central actor was a hardworking maintenance manager for British Airways; we don’t know his name, but we’ll call him Jones. He worked the graveyard shift at the company hangar in Birmingham, England.

Instead, the officer ordered the men to pipe in steam from the engine room, figuring this would put the fire out by starving it of oxygen. “Steaming the hold” was a traditional fire-fighting solution for the unusual emergency that had befallen them. Steaming was the worst thing they could have done, short of lighting up a flamethrower and dropping it down on the fertilizer bags before battening down the hatches. The words of John F. Kennedy come to mind, describing an incident during the Cuban missile crisis: “Always there’s some son of a bitch who doesn’t get the word.” The ones who had the word were the Army Ordnance Bureau’s Emergency Export Corporation, which was overseeing the manufacture of the fertilizer, and the U.S. Coast Guard, which had written regulations stating that the chemical was a “dangerous substance.” By 1947 the Coast Guard had clear authority to regulate the arrival and loading of such shipments, but it was short of money and hadn’t fully taken up the duty.

Year 501 by Noam Chomsky


anti-communist, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, Bolshevik threat, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, colonial rule, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, European colonialism, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, invisible hand, land reform, land tenure, long peace, mass incarceration, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, non-tariff barriers, offshore financial centre, Plutocrats, plutocrats, price stability, Ralph Nader, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, strikebreaker, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, union organizing, War on Poverty, working poor

A 1980 study of the Center for Defense Information (CDI), tracing Russian influence on a country-by-country basis since World War II, concluded reasonably that Soviet power had declined from that peak to the point where by 1979, “the Soviets were influencing only 6 percent of the world’s population and 5 percent of the world’s GNP, exclusive of the Soviet Union.” By the mid-1960s, the Soviet economy was stagnating or even declining; there was an accompanying decline in housing, commerce, and life expectancy, while infant mortality increased by a third from 1970 to 1975.13 The Cuban missile crisis of 1962, revealing extreme Soviet vulnerability, led to a huge increase in military spending, levelling off by the late 1970s. The economy was then visibly stagnating and the autocracy unable to control rising dissidence. The command economy had carried out basic industrial development but was unable to proceed to more advanced stages, and also suffered from the global recession that devastated much of the South.

Shock Waves: Eastern Europe After the Revolution (South End, 1992) Fitzgerald, Tom. Between Life and Economics (1990 Boyer lectures of the Australian Broadcasting Company, ABC, 1990) Franklin, Bruce. M.I.A., or Mythmaking in America (Lawrence Hill, 1992) Gaddis, John Lewis. Strategies of Containment (Oxford, 1982) —The Long Peace (Oxford, 1987) Garthoff, Raymond. Détente and Confrontation (Brookings, 1985) —Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Brookings, 1987) George, Alexander, ed. Westem State Terrorism (Polity, 1991) Gerschenkron, Alexander. Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective (Harvard, 1962) Ginger, Ann Pagan, and David Christiano, eds. The Cold War Against Labor (Meiklejohn Civil Liberties Institute, 1987), two vols. Gleijeses, Piero. Shattered Hope (Princeton, 1991) Green, David. The Containment of Latin America (Quadrangle, 1971) Greider, William.

., 18 class war, 61, 70, 74, 78, 156, 379, 384, 386 Cleveland, Grover, 392 Clinton, Bill, 320 Clive, Robert, 10, 16 Cobban, Alfred, 28 Cockburn, Alexander, 372 Colby, William, 40–41, 182 Cold War, 46, 60, 93, 101–06, 220 end of, 52, 112, 121–25, 130–31, 141, 147, 291, 294, 349 relation to North-South conflict, 91, 98, 212 US policy in, 64, 223, 234, 251–53, 269, 331, 340 Collins, Joseph, 261 Collor de Mello, Fernando, 111, 256 Colombia, 119–22, 244 colonialism, 48, 91–92, 101, 216, 307, 343 British colonialism, vii–viii, 4–6, 8–22, 26–28, 274–75, 314, 361–62 Dutch colonialism, 7, 9–11, 13–14, 19, 26, 168, 362 Flemish colonialism, 28 French colonialism, 28, 95, 271–75, 281, 341, 345, 369, 374 Japanese colonialism, 4, 341, 343 neocolonialism, 3, 60–61, 76, 130, 172, 219 Portuguese colonialism, 6–7, 9, 11, 19, 180 settler colonialism, viii Spanish colonialism, 6–7, 9–10, 17, 42–44, 195, 273–74 US colonialism, ix, 14, 30–38, 43, 105, 197, 276–82, 314–19, 328, 334–38, 372 See also imperialism Columbus, Christopher, 6, 271–74 Colombian era, 3, 42, 215 Native American policy, 44, 364–65 Committee of Concerned Asian Scholars, 339 Communism, 49–50 in Brazil, 220, 223–24, 230 in Chile, 50 in China, 143, 341 in Cuba, 199, 203–05 in Indonesia, 168–170, 174–75, 177–86 in Italy, 56 in Japan, 142 in Poland, 108 in Soviet Union, 111–13 in Spain, 101 US policy toward, 54, 66, 81, 93–98, 131, 150, 217, 235, 320, 331, 381, 388 in Vietnam, 346, 359–60, 366–70 See also Marxism; Soviet Union Conniff, Ruth, 384 Constable, Pamela, 205, 263, 295 Conyers, John, 300 Cooper, Marc, 269 Cortés, Hernán, 9, 15 Costa Rica, 119–20, 208, 245–48 Costigliola, Frank, 65 Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA), 272, 288, 293, 299 counterinsurgency, 40, 235, 247, 331, 372 Cowell, Alan, 126 Cromer, Lord. See Baring, Evelyn Crossette, Barbara, 195, 251, 301, 346–48 Cuba, ix–xii, 49, 105, 122, 214, 235, 257, 329 racialization in, 274 South Africa policy, 100, 129 US policy toward, 67, 124, 196–212, 284, 296, 336–37, 344 Cuban missile crisis, xi, 102, 157, 203, 206 Cumings, Bruce, 47–48 Curzon, Lord George, 26, 48 Czechoslovakia, 68, 113 Daly, Herman, 82 Davidson, Basil, 6 Dawes, Henry, 318 Debo, Angie, 317 Debs, Eugene, 392 de Gaulle, Charles, 65 Delfim Neto, Antonio, 226–27 Democratic Republic of the Congo, 28, 129, 141 denialism, vii–x disability, 355–57, 356–57 Dole, Sanford, 337 Dominican Republic, 253, 272, 275, 278–79, 282, 295, 304 Donovan, William, 98 Dower, John, 334 Drake, Francis, 8 Dreier, John, 58–59 drug war, 42, 80, 83, 116–17, 119–22, 154, 232 Du Boff, Richard, 71, 83, 309 Duggan, Laurence, 47 Dulles, John Foster, 48, 51, 54, 98, 217, 220 DuPont, Samuel, 335 Dutch East India Company (VOC), 7, 26 Duvalier, François (“Papa Doc”), 278, 281 Duvalier, Jean-Claude (“Baby Doc”), 272, 283–292, 294, 299, 305 Economic Policy Institute, 387 Economist, 44, 86, 88, 151, 152, 161, 180, 381 Ecuador, 242–43 education, 227, 309, 312, 317 in New World Order, 118, 153–56, 231–32, 256, 258, 262, 268, 285, 353–54, 383 See also universities Egypt, 26, 126, 148, 150, 164 Eisenhower, Dwight, 98–99, 310, 368 Brazil policy, 218 Cuba policy, 199–200, 204 Latin America policy, 47, 51, 54, 234 Ellacuría, Ignacio, 209 El Salvador, 120–21, 211, 308 in New World Order, 247, 249, 251, 266, 269 Rio Sumpul massacre, 362 US policy toward, 51 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 36 Engelberg, Stephen, 108–109 England, 64, 277, 389, 394 British colonialism, vii–viii, 4–6, 5, 7–10, 8–22, 26–28, 26–29, 48, 274–75, 313–15, 314, 361–62 economy of, 11–24, 72, 92–94, 110, 144–46, 343–44 in New World Order, 56, 62, 69, 73, 76–77, 97, 188–90, 214, 217, 219, 234 slavery in, x, 193, 311 US-British relations, 31–37, 193–97, 334, 337, 392 environmental crisis, 79–83, 88, 150–52, 161, 239, 245, 259, 262, 398 Episcopal Council of Latin America, 243 European Community (EC), 86, 113–14, 133, 145, 195 Evans, Gareth, 187–88 Evans, Peter, 213, 228, 230 Fagoth, Steadman, 120 Fairbank, John King, 339 Fall, Bernard, 346 Far Eastern Economic Review, 350, 370 Farmer, Paul, 272, 275 fascism, 55–57, 95, 96, 97, 222, 226–28, 254, 281, 331, 342–43 left-fascists, 69, 75–76, 81, 365 Federspiel, Howard, 182 Felix, David, 145, 228, 254–55, 258, 261 Fields, Richard, 37 Figueres, José, 57 Financial Times, 77, 84, 86, 107, 109, 358 Fitch, John, 393 Food for Peace program, 150 Foreign Affairs, 294 France, 12, 19, 23, 29, 34, 92, 93, 187, 279, 287, 340 French colonialism, 28, 95, 271–75, 281, 341, 345, 369, 374 in New World Order, 58, 65–66, 68, 86, 217, 234, 348 Francis, David, 143 Frankel, Max, 177 Franklin, Bruce, 366, 369 Fraser, Doug, 384 Freed, Kenneth, 41 Freedom House, 51, 175, 367 Freedom Support Act, 115 French, Howard, 204, 293, 295, 301–302 Frick, Henry Clay, 390 Friedman, Thomas, 52–53, 125, 127, 251–53, 262 G-7, 3–4, 41, 84–85, 115 Gaidar, Yegor, 108 Gaillard, Roger, 278 Gama, Vasco da, 3, 42 García Moreno, Victor Carlos, 243 Garrett, G.T., 15 Garthoff, Raymond, 66, 105, 350, 407n12 Gelb, Leslie, 68 General Agreement on Tarrifs and Trade (GATT), 80, 85, 88, 132, 161 Geneva Convention, 332, 369, 375 genocide, vii, 37–40, 42, 99, 140, 165–66, 180, 238–39, 252, 349, 361 George, Lloyd, 32 Germany, 5, 24, 91, 114, 219, 228, 275 in New World Order, 55, 63–65, 68, 70, 77–78, 84, 101–02, 143–145, 149, 163 in postwar period, 62–65 in WWII, 96, 167, 170, 245, 257, 328, 332, 364 Gerschenkron, Alexander, 94, 141 Gibb, Tom, 247 Gibraltar, 97 Gilpatric, Roswell, 202 Glaser, Gabrielle, 110–11 Gleijeses, Piero, 194–96 Golden, Tim, 251 Gómez, Juan Vicente, 214, 234 Gómez Lizarazo, Jorge, 121 Goodman, Amy, 189 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 100, 102, 210–11, 407n12 Gordon, Lincoln, 223–25 Gott, Richard, 401n1 Goulart, João, 223–25, 252 Gowan, Peter, 113 Gramajo, Héctor, 40–41, 181, 209, 404n39 Grant, Charles (Lord Glenelg), 311 Grau San Martín, Ramón, 197–98 Greece, 55–56 Green, David, 198, 216, 218 Green, Marshall, 171, 173–74, 176–77, 183 Greenberger, Robert, 296, 345 Greenway, H.D.S., 351–353 Grenada, xii, 93, 105, 116–17, 122, 201 Grew, Joseph, 329 Gromyko, Andrei, 203 Grotius, Hugo, 29 Guatemala, 93, 211, 242–243, 278 genocide by military, 39–41, 252 in New World Order, 81, 117, 120–21, 237–40, 243, 250, 266, 280, 296, 319 US policy toward, 51, 96, 183 Guaymí Indians, 245 Guinea-Bissau, 231 Gulf War (first), 31, 52, 69, 189, 296, 313, 339–40, 397 New World Order and, 61, 147–48 Gutman, Herbert, 389 Haberman, Clyde, 53 Hagopian, Frances, 255 Haines, Gerald, 215–21, 229–30, 254, 255 Haiti, 124, 237, 319, 330 colonial history of, 271–76 US policy toward, 124, 196, 252–53, 276–305, 307–08, 311 Haitian-American Company for Agricultural Development (SHADA), 304 Halliday, Fred, 187 Hamilton, Alexander, 194 hansei, 253, 326, 361, 373 Hanson, Simon, 218 Harberger, Arnold, 254 Hartung, William, 149 Harvard International Review, 40 Hassett, John, 43 Hatfield, Mark, 159 Haugaard, Lisa, 267 Hawaii, 334–38 Hawke, Bob, 188 Hayden, Bill, 188 Haynes, Michael, 108 Hegel, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich, 5, 153, 166–67, 311, 320 Henwood, Doug, 84 Herman, Edward, 166, 262 Hewlett, Sylvia Ann, 225 Higgenbotham, Leon, 194 Hitler, Adolf, 95, 99, 185, 211, 257, 278, 331 Ho Chi Minh, 95, 279, 368 Hockstader, Lee, 250, 298 Hoerr, John, 386 Hollings, Ernest, 327 Holroyd, John Baker (Lord Sheffield), 7 Holt, Thomas, 311 Holzman, Franklyn, 105, 408n17 Honduras, 51, 127, 206, 248, 266, 362 Hong Kong, 257 Honorat, Jean-Jacques, 289, 290, 292, 299 Huelshoff, Michael, 144 Hull, Cordell, 198, 329–30, 336, 343 human rights, 131, 139, 237–50, 257, 296, 301, 346, 398 in Colombia, 121 in Cuba, 207 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 141 in East Timor, 182–90 in El Salvador, 268 in Guatemala, 39, 404n39 in Haiti, 286–293 in Honduras, 128 in Indonesia, 168–81 in liberalism, 79 in Panama, 118–19 US policy toward, x, 42, 46, 124–25, 165–67, 298 Human Rights Watch, 290 Humboldt, Wilhelm von, 25–26 Hungary, 68, 81, 251, 396 Hunter, John, 37 Huntington, Samuel, 228–29 Hurtado, Carlos, 121 Hurtado, Maria Elena, 162 Hussein, Saddam, 37–38, 52, 54, 58, 99, 122, 124–27, 186, 209, 253 Hyland, William, 294 imperialism, xiii, 3, 22, 222, 276, 340, 343 in New World Order, 84–98, 135, 164, 172, 207, 215, 233, 238, 340, 379, 397 See also colonialism Incas, 5, 9 India, 7, 15, 329 colonialism in, 7, 8–10, 14–20, 26–27 in New World Order, 47, 163, 241, 250 textile industry, 13 See also Bengal indigenous communities, viii in the Americas, 5–6, 39, 162, 164, 238, 240–41, 273, 311, 319 in Liberia, 306–07 See also Native Americans; individual tribes Indochina, 185, 341, 367–69, 395 French policy toward, 65 Indochinese wars, 32, 175 US policy toward, 51, 98, 374–77 See also individual countries Indonesia, 225, 252, 296, 329, 349, 369 colonialism in, 7, 10 US policy toward, 51, 168–90 Industrial Biotechnology Association, 159 Inter-American Advisory Commission, 218 International Court of Justice.

Rethinking Camelot by Noam Chomsky


anti-communist, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, Howard Zinn, land reform, Monroe Doctrine, Norman Mailer, Paul Samuelson, Ronald Reagan

It was, indeed, a partial defeat, but overall a significant victory. The “defense of South Vietnam” was not the only achievement of Camelot. Another was bringing “the terrors of the earth” to Cuba, in the words of Kennedy’s close associate historian Arthur Schlesinger. Kennedy’s terrorist war against Cuba, which was no small affair, was a major factor in bringing about what Schlesinger described accurately as “the most dangerous moment in history,” the Cuban missile crisis. Kennedy is much lauded for his cool courage in bringing the crisis to an end. The truth, now well established by scholarship,4 sheds little glory on the Camelot image. At the peak moment of the crisis, when Kennedy’s subjective assessment was that the probability of nuclear war was 1/3 to 1/2, he decided to reject Khrushchev’s offer to end the crisis by simultaneous public withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba and US missiles from Turkey—obsolete missiles for which a withdrawal order had already been given because they were being replaced by far more lethal and threatening Polaris submarines.

These developments tell us a good bit about the state of American culture at a time of general malaise, unfocused anger and discontent, and effective dissolution of the means for the public to become engaged in a constructive way in determining their fate.60 Notes Notes to the Preface to the 2015 Edition 1. Chomsky, For Reasons of State, Pantheon, 1973. 2. Marc Selverstone, “It’s a Date: Kennedy and the Timetable for a Vietnam Troop Withdrawal,” Diplomatic History 34.3, June 2010. 3. See N. Chomsky, “Murdering History,” in Year 501: The Conquest Continues, South End, 1993. 4. See particularly Sheldon Stern, The Cuban Missile Crisis in American Memory: Myths versus Reality, Stanford, 2012. 5. John H. Coatsworth, “The Cold War in Central America, 1975–1991,” The Cambridge History of the Cold War, vol. III, 2010. Notes to the Introduction 1. See 501 for much further discussion and sources. Also DD, and earlier work cited there. 2. On the media from 1950 through 1985, see MC and sources cited. On developments reviewed below, see my books cited in 501, and sources cited. 3.

Facing West: The Metaphysics of Indian-Hating and Empire-Building (Minnesota, 1980) Du Boff, Richard. Accumulation and Power (ME Sharpe, 1989) Duffy, Dan, ed. Informed Dissent (Vietnam Generation, Burning Cities Press, 1992) Duncanson, Denis. Government and Revolution in Vietnam (Oxford, 1968) Fall, Bernard. Last Reflections on War (Doubleday, 1967) ———, and Marcus Raskin, eds. Vietnam Reader (Vintage, 1965) Garthoff, Raymond. Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Brookings, 1987) Gibbon, William Conrad, ed. The U.S. Government and the Vietnam War, part II, 1961-1964 (Princeton, 1986) Giglio, James. The Presidency of John F. Kennedy (Kansas, 1991) Griffen, William, and John Marciano. Lessons of the Vietnam War: A Critical Examination of School Texts (Rowman and Allanheld, 1979) Herman, Edward. The Real Terror Network (South End Press, 1982) ———, and Frank Brodhead.

pages: 306 words: 79,537

Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World by Tim Marshall


9 dash line, Admiral Zheng, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, California gold rush, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, drone strike, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Hans Island, LNG terminal, market fragmentation, megacity, Mercator projection distort size, especially Greenland and Africa, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, oil shale / tar sands, Scramble for Africa, South China Sea, trade route, transcontinental railway, Transnistria, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, zero-sum game

For most of the nineteenth century, foreign policy was dominated by expanding trade and avoiding entanglements outside the neighborhood, but it was time to push out and protect the approaches to the coastlines. The only real threat was from Spain—it may have been persuaded to leave the mainland, but it still controlled the islands of Cuba, Puerto Rico, and part of what is now the Dominican Republic. Cuba in particular kept American presidents awake at night, as it would again in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The island sits just off Florida, giving it access to and potential control of the Straits of Florida and the Yucatán Channel in the Gulf of Mexico. This is the exit and entry route for the port of New Orleans. Spain’s power may have been diminishing toward the end of the nineteenth century, but it was still a formidable military force. In 1898, the US declared war on Spain, routed its military, and gained control of Cuba, with Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines thrown in for good measure.

The English language even has two sayings that demonstrate how deeply ingrained the idea is: “Give them an inch and they’ll take a mile,” and President Theodore Roosevelt’s maxim of 1900, which has now entered the political lexicon: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” The deadly game in this century will be how the Chinese, Americans, and others in the region manage each crisis that arises without losing face and without building up a deep well of resentment and anger on both sides. The Cuban Missile Crisis is generally considered an American victory; what is less publicized is that several months after Russia removed its missiles from Cuba, the United States removed its Jupiter missiles (which could reach Moscow) from Turkey. It was actually a compromise, with both sides, eventually, able to tell their respective publics that they had not capitulated. In the twenty-first-century Pacific there are more great-power compromises to be made.

See also names of specific states and Afghanistan, 4–5 and Africa, 84 and Arctic/Arctic Circle, 243, 249, 253–54 and Canada, 62–63, 65, 66 and China, 38–39, 78–83 Cold War, 81, 94, 107, 118, 198–200, 205, 221, 235, 251–53 colonial period, 66–70 and Cuba, 72–73, 195 drones, 124–25, 148–49, 183, 186–87 and drugs, 224–25 energy resources, 33, 82, 84 geography in dictating foreign policy, 7 and Germany, 75 Hispanic population, 71, 222 and India, 191–92 and Iran, 82–83 and Iraq, 84 and Israel, 83 and Japan, 74, 75, 78–79, 81, 200, 208–13 and Korea, 79–80, 194, 198–200 languages, 71, 80, 89, 222 laser technology, 262–63 and Latin America, 83, 226–27, 229–30, 231, 235 and Mexico, 62–63, 66, 70–71, 222–23 Native American nations, 66, 67, 69, 71–72 naval capacity, 38–39, 53–54, 72–74, 75, 78, 79, 82–83, 160 prospects for, 64, 84–85 and Russia, 77–78 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 28, 182–83, 186, 188 space exploration, 262 and Spain, 67, 69–73 strategic depth, 6, 62–63, 64–73 and United Kingdom, 66–67, 75, 78, 238 U.S. Geological Survey, 248 Ural Mountains, 8–9, 11–13, 15–17, 28, 92 Uruguay, 215, 230–31, 232, 233–34, 236 Ürümqi, 36–37, 50, 57 USSR, 13–14, 16, 199, 212. See also Russia Afghanistan invasion (1979), 18–19, 177, 181 Cold War, 81, 94, 107, 118, 198–200, 205, 221, 235, 251–53 collapse of, 17, 19–21, 28, 30, 95, 253 Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 72–73 space exploration, 261–62 Utah, 62–63, 71 Uzbekistan, 8–9, 20, 133 Vaca Muerta shale formation, 236–37, 238 Venezuela, 34, 215, 218, 220, 221, 227, 229, 230–31, 233–34, 235 Victoria Island, 240–41 Vietnam, 36–37, 45–46, 55, 57–58, 76, 78–79, 191 Vladivostok, 8–9, 19, 36–37, 45, 194 Wang Jing, 227–28 War of the Pacific (1879), 220–21 Warsaw Pact, 13–14, 20–21, 97 Washington, George, 74 water supplies, 47, 120–22, 125, 131–32, 179–80, 191, 207, 218, 228, 232, 261 West Bank, 142, 153, 153–56 Western Europe, 86–87, 88–108.

pages: 826 words: 231,966

GCHQ by Richard Aldrich


belly landing, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial exploitation, cuban missile crisis, friendly fire, illegal immigration, index card, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Neil Kinnock, New Journalism, packet switching, private military company, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, Yom Kippur War, Zimmermann PGP

Indeed, NSA staff who listened in to Soviet radars and fighter controllers during the Gary Powers flight argued that he had only been shot down because, quite inexplicably, he was flying at only thirty-five thousand feet and was heading in the wrong direction (British intelligence sources seem to confirm this story).5 In late June 1960 the CIA’s Director, Allen Dulles, confided to a friend that he was sure Powers ‘was not shot down at normal altitude’, but later the CIA and NSA fell into a bitter dispute over exactly how the U-2 had been intercepted by the Soviets.6 The Gary Powers shootdown triggered a major diplomatic confrontation between Moscow, Washington and London. The incident encapsulated many of the wider international trends of the 1960s. During the decade there were major flashpoints such as the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. There were also serious confrontations in the Third World, the largest being the Vietnam War, which kept the temperature at boiling point. Although engaged in an arms race, East and West had achieved nuclear parity, signalled by the deployment of Soviet missiles which could reach the American homeland. In theory at least, all-out confrontation now seemed to be a remote possibility because of nuclear deterrence.

After all, deterrence was supposed to ensure that the north German plains would remain the Cold War’s frozen front, with little likelihood of real conflict. In fact, by the early 1960s a number of crises had created a climate of growing anxiety. Confrontations over Berlin and Cuba, together with the escalating conflict in Vietnam, made war seem somewhat closer. Alarmingly, American sigint had failed to give much warning about the emerging Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The Six-Day War in 1967 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 were also unsettling for commanders. More generally, throughout the 1960s there was a growing awareness that NATO’s conventional inferiority in numbers, especially in northern Germany, might call for the early use of nuclear weapons to stem the tide of a Warsaw Pact attack. A better intelligence flow was required, not only for warning, but also for decision-making in any nuclear crisis.27 Indeed, in 1968, even before the invasion of Czechoslovakia, London and Washington began thinking the unthinkable.

Meanwhile, the American NSA was developing a fleet of Technical Research Ships, consisting of converted supply ships and Second World War Liberty ships (vessels that had been hastily produced for convoy duty); it was these latter developments that had caught Cheltenham’s eye. The first vessel in NSA’s Technical Research Ship programme was the USS Oxford, a converted Liberty ship which put to sea in 1961. Its flexibility was immediately apparent as it floated from one trouble spot to another, admittedly at an ambulatory pace of just eleven knots. It proved especially successful during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Accordingly, during the 1960s four more ships in the Oxford class were launched: the Georgetown, the Jamestown, the Belmont and the Liberty. Three smaller ships joined the listening fleet, based on converted military transports: the Valdez, the Muller and finally the Pueblo, which entered service in 1968. However, the American sigint budgets were tight in the 1960s, and while all these vessels were refurbished, they had nevertheless seen better days.2 In 1964, partly as a result of advice from the Hampshire review, GCHQ decided that it would go one better, creating a purpose-built sigint ship, in contrast to the Americans’ elderly converted transports.3 The cover name chosen for this exciting new project was the ‘Communications Trials Ship’.

pages: 760 words: 218,087

The Pentagon: A History by Steve Vogel


Berlin Wall, City Beautiful movement, cuban missile crisis, East Village, Fall of the Berlin Wall, New Journalism, Norman Mailer, Ronald Reagan, Works Progress Administration

Trewhitt, McNamara, 107; Dino A. Brugioni, Eyeball to Eyeball: The Inside Story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, 415, 398; Raymond, Power at the Pentagon, 10–12. A private elevator Ibid.; Goldberg, The Pentagon, 144; National Military Command Center System history draft, NMCC, 18 Aug. 1986, OSD HO. The reality was strange enough George C. Wilson, “From Strangelovian to Prosaic,” WP, 10 July 1976; Raymond, Power at the Pentagon, 10–12. Yet the National Military Brugioni, Eyeball to Eyeball, 399–400. “It was a means” Transcript, forum on Fortieth Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, 18 Oct. 2002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government,, (hereafter fortieth anniversary transcript, Harvard). At 9:45 that evening Elie Abel, The Missile Crisis, 154; Brugioni, Eyeball to Eyeball, 384, 416.

Instead, he stared at the tens of thousands of marchers approaching the Pentagon. “Christ, yes, I was scared,” McNamara later said. “You had to be scared. A mob is an uncontrollable force.” The true and high church It had been almost exactly twenty-five years since George Marshall and Henry Stimson had moved into the Pentagon in November 1942, but no celebrations were planned in the fall of 1967. In the five years since the Cuban Missile Crisis, the tiny American presence in Vietnam had escalated with the introduction of ground forces in 1965 and would soon reach 500,000 troops, with no end in sight. By October, more than 13,000 Americans had been killed and 86,000 wounded. Public opinion was turning against the war, fired both by the growing number of casualties and by reports on great suffering in Vietnam. By mid-1967, for the first time, a near-majority of Americans believed the war was a mistake.

Five elements of the building were given historic status: the five outer façades; the center courtyard and surrounding façades; the Mall terrace; the River terrace; and the distinctive five-sided shape. Finally, the figures who had strode along its corridors—from Marshall and Stimson, to Forrestal, Eisenhower, McNamara, Powell, and many others—and the decisions they made, for better or worse, in its command centers and executive suites—about the atomic bomb, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, and beyond—pointed irrefutably to the extraordinary role the building had played in American history since World War II. The Pentagon, the nomination concluded, “is of an exceptional level of historic significance.” The Pentagon was now officially a landmark. There was no choice but to fix it. They wanted the noise to stop It was shades of 1942. The “rata-tat-tat” of jackhammers always seemed to be followed by the “whomp-whomp” of impact drills.

pages: 1,351 words: 385,579

The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined by Steven Pinker


1960s counterculture, affirmative action, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, British Empire, Broken windows theory, California gold rush, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, clean water, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, crack epidemic, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, Doomsday Clock, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Glaeser,, European colonialism, experimental subject, facts on the ground, failed state, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fudge factor, full employment, George Santayana, ghettoisation, Gini coefficient, global village, Henri Poincaré, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, impulse control, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, long peace, loss aversion, Marshall McLuhan, mass incarceration, McMansion, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Singer: altruism, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, Republic of Letters, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, security theater, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, V2 rocket, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

Territory most important issue in war: Vasquez, 2009, pp. 165–66. 169. Territorial integrity norm: Zacher, 2001. 170. Cognitive landmarks in positive-sum negotiation: Schelling, 1960. 171. Higher value on life: Luard, 1986, p. 268. 172. Khrushchev: Quoted in Mueller, 2004a, p. 74. 173. Carter’s restraint: “Carter defends handling of hostage crisis,” Boston Globe, Nov. 17, 2009. 174. Saving face during the Cuban Missile Crisis: Glover, 1999, p. 202. 175. RFK on Cuban Missile Crisis: Kennedy, 1969/1999, p. 49. 176. Khrushchev and Kennedy pulling on a knot: Quoted in Glover, 1999, p. 202. 177. Cold War as ladder versus escalator: Mueller, 1989. 178. Military aversion to gratuitous killing: Hoban, 2007; Jack Hoban, personal communication, Nov. 14, 2009. 179. The Ethical Marine Warrior: Hoban, 2007, 2010. 180. “The Hunting Story”: Humphrey, 1992. 181.

So I didn’t attack.”173 Though American hawks were furious at Carter’s wimpiness, their own hero, Ronald Reagan, responded to a 1983 bombing that killed 241 American servicemen in Beirut by withdrawing all American forces from the country, and he sat tight in 1987 when Iraqi jet fighters killed thirty-seven sailors on the USS Stark. The 2004 train bombing in Madrid by an Islamist terrorist group, far from whipping the Spanish into an anti-Islamic lather, prompted them to vote out the government that had involved them in the Iraq War, an involvement many felt had brought the attack upon them. The most consequential discounting of honor in the history of the world was the resolution of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Though the pursuit of national prestige may have precipitated the crisis, once Khrushchev and Kennedy were in it, they reflected on their mutual need to save face and set that up as a problem for the two of them to solve.174 Kennedy had read Tuchman’s The Guns of August, a history of World War I, and knew that an international game of chicken driven by “personal complexes of inferiority and grandeur” could lead to a cataclysm.

At the same time a grassroots movement began to stigmatize the weapons. Demonstrations and petitions attracted millions of citizens, together with public figures such as Linus Pauling, Bertrand Russell, and Albert Schweitzer. The mounting pressure helped nudge the superpowers to a moratorium and then a ban on atmospheric nuclear testing, and then to a string of arms-control agreements. The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 was a tipping point. Lyndon Johnson capitalized on the change to demonize Goldwater in the Daisy ad and called attention to the categorical boundary in a 1964 public statement: “Make no mistake. There is no such thing as a conventional nuclear weapon. For nineteen peril-filled years no nation has loosed the atom against another. To do so now is a political decision of the highest order.”205 As the world’s luck held out, and the two nuclear-free decades grew to three and four and five and six, the taboo fed on itself in the runaway process by which norms become common knowledge.

pages: 525 words: 131,496

Near and Distant Neighbors: A New History of Soviet Intelligence by Jonathan Haslam


active measures, Albert Einstein, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bolshevik threat, Bretton Woods, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, falling living standards, John von Neumann, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, Valery Gerasimov, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, éminence grise

To find all that was needed, however, they had to create an incident at a market stall, resulting in her interrogation by the police for purported theft, which implausibly stretched out for a total of five gruelling hours, surely a record even for the militia. The burglars found what they were looking for: three Minox cameras, dictaphones, cipher tables, instructions on communications, and money. Fearing he might flee, and with Khrushchev’s permission, they arrested Pen’kovskii (by then handled by the Americans) on October 22, 1962, the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Since all the evidence was in, and he was a weak man in an impossible situation, it was not hard to find Pen’kovskii guilty of having passed to CIA and MI5 more than five thousand photographs of secret information. After standing trial, he was shot on May 18, 1963.75 Serov, too, was punished for being duped so easily. He was dismissed on February 2, 1963, and successively demoted and stripped of Party membership.

But he, too, was affronted at having to work as a subordinate to Americans in the NATO high command who had been too young to experience the reality of war. From de la Salle, Moscow secured NATO’s plans for war, including the entire list of targets and the payload destined for the destruction of Warsaw Pact forces.76 Crisis over Missiles in Cuba: Operation Anadyr Lagging behind in the strategic nuclear arms race as the Americans extended their advantage with every passing year, Khrushchev sought a short cut. This was how the Cuban Missile Crisis erupted in October 1962. The Russians always called this the Caribbean crisis—that is to say, it had little to do with Cuba itself. At this point, Georgii Bol’shakov found a place in history. Trained for military intelligence in 1943, Bol’shakov was soon fluent in English. In 1951 he was despatched to the United States under cover as the TASS correspondent in Washington, D.C. There he established working relationships with American journalists before returning to Moscow.

It was also confident of being able to match the spy satellite capabilities of the Americans before the decade was out. Under Khrushchev, the moments of relief from constant confrontation proved fleeting. The pressure exerted on the West in Europe and the Third World was persistent and probing. The détente that the European democracies, in particular, had dreamed of under Khrushchev faded all too rapidly with the Berlin crisis between 1958 and 1961, capped by the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. However much both sides in the Cold War wished to avoid open conflict, the search for marginal advantage proved unending. There would therefore be no relief from the ongoing Cold War, in spite of treaties on the banning of atomic tests and a treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. These measures were simply palliatives, not significant enough to halt further intensification of the war between intelligence services.

pages: 459 words: 103,153

Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure by Tim Harford


Andrew Wiles, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, car-free, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, charter city, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, complexity theory, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dava Sobel, Deep Water Horizon, Deng Xiaoping, double entry bookkeeping, Edmond Halley,, Erik Brynjolfsson, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Fermat's Last Theorem, Firefox, food miles, Gerolamo Cardano, global supply chain, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, John Harrison: Longitude, knowledge worker, loose coupling, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Netflix Prize, New Urbanism, Nick Leeson, PageRank, Piper Alpha, profit motive, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, rolodex, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, the market place, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, trade route, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, web application, X Prize, zero-sum game

But while this is how we instinctively think about how leadership works and how organisations should operate, it’s a dangerously misleading view. The problem is that no leader can make the right decision every time. Napoleon, perhaps the finest general in history, invaded Russia with half a million men and lost over 90 per cent of them to death and desertion. John F. Kennedy forced Khrushchev to back down during the Cuban missile crisis. Yet he will also be remembered for the of Pigs fiasco, when he somehow persuaded himself both that 1400 US-trained Cuban exiles might defeat 200,000 troops and topple Fidel Castro, and that nobody would suspect that the US was involved. Mao Zedong was the greatest of all insurgent commanders, but a catastrophic peacetime leader whose blundering arrogance killed tens of millions of his own people.

Irving Janis’s classic analysis of the Bay of Pigs and other foreign policy fiascos, Victims of Group Think, explains that a strong team – a ‘kind of family’ – can quickly fall into the habit of reinforcing each other’s prejudices out of simple team spirit and a desire to bolster the group. Janis details the way in which John F. Kennedy fooled himself into thinking that he was gathering a range of views and critical comments. All the while his team of advisers were unconsciously giving each other a false sense of infallibility. Later, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy was far more aggressive about demanding alternative options, exhaustively exploring risks, and breaking up his advisory groups to ensure that they didn’t become too comfortable. It was a lesson that David Petraeus – another historian – had grasped. Once Petraeus had a robust, usable doctrine, properly tested by a range of contrasting views, he launched his own guerrilla campaign to get the US Army to pay attention to it.

., 55, 59, 71 catastrophe experts, 184–6, 191, 194–5, 208 Cave-Brown-Cave, Air Commodore Henry, 81, 83, 85, 88, 114 centralised decision making, 70, 74–5, 226, 227, 228; warfare and, 46–7, 67–8, 69, 71, 76, 78–9 centrally planned economies, 11, 21, 23–6, 68–9, 70 Challenger shuttle disaster, 184 Charles, Prince, 154 Chernobyl disaster, 185 Chile, 3, 69–72, 76, 148 China, 11, 94, 131, 143, 147, 150, 152 Christensen, Clayton, 239–40, 242, 245 Chuquicamata mine (Chile), 3 Churchill, Winston, 41–2, 82, 85 Citigroup, 205131 Clay Mathematics Institute, 110 climate change, 4, 20; carbon dioxide emissions and, 132, 156, 159–65, 166–9, 173, 176, 178–80; ‘carbon footprinting’, 159–66; carbon tax/price idea, 167–9, 178–80, 222; environmental regulations and, 169–74, 176, 177; ‘food miles’ and, 159, 160–1, 168; governments/politics and, 157–8, 163, 169–74, 176, 180; greenhouse effect and, 154–6; individual behaviour and, 158–63, 164, 165–6; innovation prizes and, 109, 179; methane and, 155, 156, 157, 159–60, 173, 179, 180; new technologies and, 94–5; simplicity/complexity paradox, 156, 157–8; Thaler-Sunstein nudge, 177–8; uncertainty and, 156 Coca-Cola, 28, 243 Cochrane, Archie, 123–7, 129, 130, 140, 238, 256 cognitive dissonance, 251–2 Cold War, 6, 41, 62–3 Colombia, 117, 147 complexity theory, 3–4, 13, 16, 49, 72103, 237 computer games, 92–3 computer industry, 11–12, 69, 70–1, 239–42 corporations and companies: disruptive technologies and, 239–44, 245–6; environmental issues and, 157–8, 159, 161, 165, 170–1, 172–3; flattening of hierarchies, 75, 224–5, 226–31; fraud and, 208, 210, 212–13, 214; innovation and, 17, 81–2, 87–9, 90, 93–4, 95–7, 108–11, 112, 114, 224–30, 232–4; limited liability, 244; patents and, 95–7, 110, 111, 114; randomised experiments and, 235–9; skunk works model and, 89, 91, 93, 152, 224, 242–3, 245; strategy and, 16, 18, 27–8, 36, 223, 224–34; see also business world; economics and finance cot-death, 120–1 credit-rating agencies, 188, 189, 190 Criner, Roy, 252 Crosby, Sir James, 211, 214, 250, 256 Cuban Missile Crisis, 41, 63 Cudahy Packing, 9 dairy products, 158, 159–60, 164–5, 166 Darwin, Charles, 86 Dayton Hudson, 243 de Montyon, Baron, 107–8 Deal or No Deal (TV game show), 33–5, 253 decentralisation, 73, 74–8, 222, 224–5, 226–31; Iraq war and, 76–8, 79; trial and error and, 31, 174–5, 232, 234 decision making: big picture thinking, 41, 42, 46, 55; consistent standards and, 28–9; diversity of opinions, 31, 44–5, 46, 48–50, 59–63; doctrine of unanimous advice, 30–1, 47–50, 62–3, 64, 78; grandiosity and, 27–8; idealized hierarchy, 40–1, 42, 46–7, 49–50, 55, 78; learning from mistakes, 31–5, 78, 119, 250–1, 256–9, 261–2; local/on the ground, 73, 74, 75, 76–8, 79, 224–5, 226–31; reporting lines/chain of command, 41, 42, 46, 49–50, 55–6, 58, 59–60, 64, 77–8; supportive team with shared vision, 41, 42, 46, 56, 62–3; unsuccessful, 19, 32, 34–5, 41–2; see also centralised decision making Deepwater Horizon disaster (April 2010), 36, 216–19, 220 Democratic Republic of Congo, 139–40 Deng Xiaoping, 1 Denmark, 148 Department for International Development (DFID), 133, 137–8 development aid: charter cities movement, 150–3; community-driven reconstruction (CDR), 137–40; corruption and, 133–5, 142–3; economic ‘big push’ and, 143–5, 148–9; feedback loops, 141–3; fundamentally unidentified questions (FUQs), 132, 133; governments and, 118, 120, 143, 144, 148–9; identification strategies, 132–5; microfinance, 116, 117–18, 120; Millennium Development Villages, 129–30, 131; product space concept, 145–8; randomised trials and, 127–9, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135–6, 137–40, 141; randomistas, 127–9, 132, 133, 135–40, 258; selection principle and, 117, 140–3, 149; SouthWest project in China, 131; success and failure, 116, 118–20, 130–1; Muhammad Yunus and, 116, 117–18 digital photography, 240–1, 242 Dirks, Ray, 211–12, 213 disk-drive industry, 239–40, 242 Djankov, Simeon, 135 domino-toppling displays, 185, 200–1 Don Basin (Russia), 21–2, 24, 27 dot-com bubble, 10, 92 Dubai, 147, 150 Duflo, Esther, 127, 131, 135, 136 Dyck, Alexander, 210, 213 eBay, 95, 230 econometrics, 132–5 economics and finance: banking system as complex and tightly coupled, 185, 186, 187–90, 200, 201, 207–8, 220; bankruptcy contingency plans, 204; Basel III regulations, 195; bond insurance business, 189–90; bridge bank/rump bank approach, 205–6; capital requirements, 203, 204; centrally planned economiepos=0000032004 >11, 21, 23–6, 68–9, 70; CoCos (contingent convertible bonds), 203–4; complexity and, 3–4; decoupling of financial system, 202, 203–8, 215–16, 220; Dodd-Frank reform act (2010), 195; employees as error/fraud spotters, 210, 211, 212, 213, 215; energy crisis (1970s), 179; evolutionary theory and, 14–17, 18–19, 174–5; improvements since 1960s, 215; inter-bank payments systems, 207; latent errors and, 209–10, 215; ‘LMX spiral’, 183–4, 189; narrow banking approach, 206–7, 215; need for systemic heat maps, 195–6; reinsurance markets, 183; zombie banks, 201–2; see also business world; corporations and companies; financial crisis (from 2007) Edison, Thomas, 236, 238 Eliot, T.S., 260 Elizabeth House (Waterloo), 170–1, 172 Endler, John, 221–2, 223, 234, 239 Engineers Without Borders, 119 Enron, 197–8, 200, 208, 210 environmental issues: biofuels, 84, 173, 176; clean energy, 91, 94, 96, 245–6; corporations/companies and, 159, 161, 165, 170–1, 172–3; renewable energy technology, 84, 91, 96, 130, 168, 169–73, 179, 245; see also climate change Equity Funding Corporation, 212 Ernst and Young, 199 errors and mistakes, types of, 208–10; latent errors, 209–10, 215, 218, 220 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), 188 European Union, 169, 173 Evans, Martin, 100 evolutionary theory, 6, 12–13, 15–17, 174, 258; business world and, 14–17, 174–5, 233–4; Darwin and, 86; digital world and, 13–14, 259–60; economics and, 14–17, 174–5; Endler’s guppy experiments, 221–2, 223, 239; fitness landscapes, 14–15, 259; Leslie Orgel’s law, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 180; problem solving and, 14–15, 16; selective breeding and, 175–6 expertise, limits of, 6–8, 16, 17, 19, 66 extinction events, biological, 18–19 Exxon (formerly Jersey Standard), 9, 12, 188, 245 F-22 stealth fighter, 93 Facebook, 90, 91 failure: in business, 8–10, 11–12, 18–19, 36, 148–9, 224, 239–46; chasing of losses, 32–5, 253–4, 256; in complex and tightly coupled systems, 185–90, 191–2, 200, 201, 207–8, 219, 220; corporate extinctions, 18–19; denial and, 32, 34–5, 250–3, 255–6; disruptive technologies, 239–44, 245–6; of established industries, 8–10; government funding and, 148–9; hedonic editing and, 254; honest advice from others and, 256–7, 258, 259; learning from, 31–5, 78, 119, 250–1, 256–9, 261–2; modern computer industry and, 11–12, 239–42; as natural in market system, 10, 11, 12, 244, 245–6; niche markets and, 240–2; normal accident theory, 219; recognition of, 36, 224; reinterpreted as success, 254–5, 256; shifts in competitive landscape, 239–46; ‘Swiss cheese model’ of safety systems, 186–7, 190, 209, 218; types of error and mistake, 208–10; willingness to fail, 249–50, 261–2; of young industries, 10 Fearon, James, 137, Federal Aviation Administration, 210 Federal Reserve Bank, 193–4 feedback, 25, 26, 42, 178, 240; in bureaucratic hierarchies, 30–1; development and, 141–3; dictatorships’ immunity to, 27; Iraq war and, 43–5, 46, 57–8, 59–62; market system and, 141; praise sandwich, 254; public services and, 141; self-employment and, 258; yes-men and, 30 Feith, Douglas, 44, 45 Ferguson, Chris ‘Jesus’, 32 Fermi nuclear reactor (near Detroit), 187 Festinger, Leon, 251 financial crisis (from 2007), 5, 11, 25; AIG and, 189, 193–5, 215–16, 228; bankers’ bonuses, 198; banking system as complex and tightly coupled, 185, 186, 187–90, 200, 201, 207–8, 220; bond insurance business and, 189–90; collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), 190, 209; credit default swaps (CDSs), 187–9, 190, 194; derivatives deals and, 198, 220; faulty information systems and, 193–5; fees paid to administrators, 197; government bail-outs/guarantees, 202, 214, 223; Lehman Brothers and, 193, 194, 196–200, 204–5, 208, 215–16; ‘LMX spiral’ comparisons, 183–4, 189; Repo 105 accounting trick, 199 Financial Services Authority (FSA), 214 Firefox, 221, 230 Fleming, Alexander, 83 Food Preservation prize, 107, 108 Ford Motor Company, 46–7 fossil record, 18 Fourier, Joseph, 155 fraud, corporate, 208, 210, 212–13, 214 Friedel, Robert, 80 Frost, Robert, 260 A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum (musical), 248 Gage, Phineas, 21, 27 Galapagos Islands, 86, 87 Gale (US developer), 152 Galenson, David, 260 Galileo, 187 Galland, Adolf, 81 Gallipoli campaign (1915), 41–2 Galvin, Major General Jack, 62, 256 game theory, 138, 205 Gates, Bill, 110, 115 Gates, Robert, 59, 64, 78 Gates Foundation, 110 Geithner, Tim, 193–5, 196 GenArts, 13 General Electric, 9, 12, 95 Gilbert, Daniel, 255, 256 GlaxoSmithKline, 95 Glewwe, Paul, 127–8 Global Positioning System (GPS), 113 globalisation, 75 Google, 12, 15, 90, 91, 239, 245, 261; corporate strategy, 36, 231–4; Gmail, 233, 234, 241, 242; peer monitoring at, 229–30 Gore, Al, An Inconvenient Truth, 158 Göring, Hermann, 81 government and politics: climate change and, 157–8, 163, 169–74, 176, 180; development aid and, 118, 120, 143, 144, 148–9; financial crisis (from 2007) and, 193–5, 198–9, 202, 214, 215–16, 223; grandiosity and, 27–8; ideal hierarchies and, 46pos=00002pos=0000022558 >7, 49–50, 62–3, 78; innovation funding, 82, 88, 93, 97, 99–101, 102–3, 104, 113; lack of adaptability rewarded, 20; pilot schemes and, 29, 30; rigorous evaluation methods and, 29* Graham, Loren, 26 Grameen Bank, 116, 117 Greece, 147 Green, Donald, 29* greenhouse effect, 154–6 Gulf War, first, 44, 53, 65, 66, 67, 71; Battle of 73 Easting, 72–3, 74, 79 Gutenberg, Johannes, 10 Haldane, Andrew, 195, 258 Halifax (HBOS subsidiary), 211 Halley, Edmund, 105 Halliburton, 217 Hamel, Gary, 221, 226, 233, 234 Hanna, Rema, 135 Hannah, Leslie, 8–10, 18 Hanseatic League, 150 Harrison, John, 106–7, 108, 110, 111 Harvard University, 98–9, 185 Hastings, Reed, 108 Hausmann, Ricardo, 145 Hayek, Friedrich von, 1, 72, 74–5, 227 HBOS, 211, 213, 214 healthcare sector, US, 213–14 Heckler, Margaret, 90–1 Henry the Lion, 149, 150, 151–2, 153 Hewitt, Adrian, 169 Hidalgo, César, 144–7, 148 Higginson, Peter, 230 Hinkley Point B power station, 192–3, 230–1 Hitachi, 11 Hitler, Adolf, 41, 82, 83, 150 HIV-AIDS, 90–1, 96, 111, 113 Holland, John, 16, 103 Hong Kong, 150 Houston, Dame Fanny, 88–9, 114 Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI), 101–3, 112 Hughes (computer company), 11 Humphreys, Macartan, 136, 137, 138–40 Hurricane aircraft, 82* IBM, 11, 90, 95–6 In Search of Excellence (Peters and Waterman, 1982), 8, 10 India, 135, 136, 143, 147, 169 individuals: adaptation and, 223–4, 248–62; climate change and, 158–63, 164, 165–6; experimentation and, 260–2; trial and error and, 31–5 Indonesia, 133–4, 142, 143 Innocentive, 109 innovation: corporations and, 17, 81–2, 87–9, 90, 93–4, 95–7, 108–11, 112, 114, 224–30, 232–4; costs/funding of, 90–4, 99–105; failure as price worth paying, 101–3, 104, 184, 215, 236; government funding, 82, 88, 93, 97, 99–101, 102–3, 104, 113; grants and, 108; in health field, 90–1, 96; large teams and specialisation, 91–4; market system and, 17, 95–7, 104; new technologies and, 89–90, 91, 94–5; parallel possibilities and, 86–9, 104; prize methodology, 106–11, 112, 113–14, 179, 222–3; randomistas and, 127–9, 132, 133, 135–40, 258; return on investment and, 83–4; skunk works model, 89, 91, 93, 152, 224, 242–3, 245; slowing down of, 90–5, 97; small steps and, 16, 24, 29, 36, 99, 103, 143, 149, 153, 224, 259–60; space tourism, 112–13, 114; specialisation and, 91–2; speculative leaps and, 16, 36, 91, 99–100, 103–4, 259–60; unpredictability and, 84–5 Intel, 11, 90, 95 International Christelijk Steunfonds (ICS), 127–9, 131 International Harvester, 9 International Rescue Committee (IRC), 137–8, 139 internet, 12, 15, 63, 90, 113, 144, 223, 233, 238, 241; randomised experiments and, 235–6, 237; see also Google Iraq war: al Anbar province, 56–7, 58, 64, 76–7; civil war (2006), 39–40; Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP), 77; counterinsurgency strategy, 43, 45, 55–6, 58, 60–1, 63–4, 65; decentralisation and, 76–8, 79; feedback and, 43–5, 46, 57–8, 59–62; FM 3–24 (counter-insurgency manual), 63; Forward Operating Bases (FOBs), 51–3, 57, 65; Haditha killings (19 November 2005), 37–9, 40, 42, 43, 52; new technologies and, 71, 72, 74, 78–9, 196; Samarra bombing (22 February 2006), 39; Tal Afar, 51, 52, 53–5, 61, 64, 74, 77, 79; trial and error and, 64–5, 66–7; US turnaround in, 35, 40, 46, 50–1, 53–6, 57–8, 59–61, 63–5, 78; US/allied incompetence and, 38, 39–40, 42–5, 46, 50, 64, 67, 79, 223; Vietnam parallels, 46 J&P Coats, 9 Jacobs, Jane, 87 James, Jonathan, 30 Jamet, Philippe, 192 Janis, Irving, 62 Japan, 11, 143, 176, 204, 208 Jay-Z, 119 Jo-Ann Fabrics, 235 Jobs, Steve, 19 Joel, Billy, 247–8, 249 Johnson, President Lyndon, 46, 47, 49–50, 60, 62, 64, 78 Jones, Benjamin F., 91–2 Joyce, James, 260 JP Morgan, 188 Kahn, Herman, 93 Kahneman, Daniel, 32, 253 Kantorovich, Leonid, 68–9, 76 Kaplan, Fred, 77 Karlan, Dean, 135 Kauffmann, Stuart, 16, 103 Kay, John, 206–7, 208, 215, 259 Keller, Sharon, 252 Kelly, Terri, 230 Kennedy, President John F., 41, 47, 62–3, 84, 113 Kenya, 127–9, 131 Kerry, John, 20 Keynes, John Maynard, 181 Kilcullen, David, 57, 60–1 Klemperer, Paul, 96, 205 Klinger, Bailey, 145 Kotkin, Stephen, 25 Kremer, Michael, 127–8, 129 Krepinevich, Andy, 45 Lanchester, John, 188 leaders: decision making and, 40–2; failure of feedback and, 30–1, 62; grandiosity and, 27–8; ignoring of failure, 36; mistakes by, 41–2, 56, 67; need to believe in, 5–6; new leader as solution, 59 Leamer, Ed, 132* Leeson, Nick, 184–5, 208 Lehman Brothers, 193, 194, 196–200, 204–5, 208, 215–16 Lenin Dam (Dnieper River), 24 Levine, John, 48–9 Levitt, Steven, 132–3 Liberia, 136–9 light bulbs, 162, 177 Lind, James, 122–3 Lindzen, Richard, 156 Livingstone, Ken, 169 Lloyd’s insurance, 183 Lloyds TSB, 214 Local Motors, 90 Lockheed, Skunk Works division, 89, 93, 224, 242 Lomas, Tony, 196, 197–200, 204, 205, 208, 219 Lomborg, Bjorn, 94 longitude problem, 105–7, 108 Lu Hong, 49 Lübeck, 149–50, 151–2, 153 Luftwaffe, 81–2 MacFarland, Colonel Sean, 56–7, 64, 74, 76–7, 78 Mackay, General Andrew, 67–8, 74 Mackey, John, 227, 234 Madoff, Bernard, 208212–13 Magnitogorsk steel mills, 24–5, 26, 153 Malawi, 119 Mallaby, Sebastian, 150, 151 management gurus, 8, 233 Manhattan Project, 82, 84 Manso, Gustavo, 102 Mao Zedong, 11, 41 market system: competition, 10–11, 17, 19, 75, 95, 170, 239–46; ‘disciplined pluralism’, 259; evolutionary theory and, 17; failure in as natural, 10, 11, 12, 244, 245–6; feedback loops, 141; innovation and, 17, 95–7, 104; patents and, 95–7; trial and error, 20; validation and, 257–8 Markopolos, Harry, 212–13 Marmite, 124 Maskelyne, Nevil, 106 mathematics, 18–19, 83, 146, 247; financial crisis (from 2007) and, 209, 213; prizes, 110, 114 Mayer, Marissa, 232, 234 McDonald’s, 15, 28 McDougal, Michael, 252 McGrath, Michael, 252 McMaster, H.R.

Pirates and Emperors, Old and New by Chomsky, Noam


anti-communist, Berlin Wall, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, Fall of the Berlin Wall, land reform, liberation theology, Mikhail Gorbachev, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, union organizing, urban planning

Each case is a murderous and prolonged terrorist war conducted by Washington. President Kennedy launched a campaign to bring “the terrors of the earth” to Cuba, his close confidant historian Arthur Schlesinger writes in his biography of Robert Kennedy, who was assigned the task as his highest priority. The terrorist atrocities were extreme, and as is well known, played a part in what Schlesinger called “the most dangerous moment in history,” the Cuban missile crisis. The terrorist attacks were resumed when the crisis abated, and continued for many years. In Angola, the Reagan Administration—the last holdouts in backing apartheid South Africa—supported the vicious and brutal UNITA army, and continued to do so even its leader, Jonas Savimbi, had been roundly defeated in a carefully monitored free election and even after South Africa had withdrawn support from this “monster whose lust for power had brought appalling misery to his people,” in the words of Marrack Goulding, British ambassador to Angola, who was seconded by the CIA station chief in nearby Kinshasa, who warned that “it wasn’t a good idea” to support the monster “because of the extent of Savimbi’s crimes.

Anti-Cuban terrorism was directed by a secret Special Group established in November 1961 under the code name “Mongoose,” involving 400 Americans, 2,000 Cubans, a private navy of fast boats, and a $50 million annual budget, run in part by a Miami CIA station functioning in violation of the Neutrality Act and, presumably, the law banning CIA operations in the United States.18 These operations included bombing of hotels and industrial installations, sinking of fishing boats, poisoning of crops and livestock, contamination of sugar exports, etc. Not all of these actions were specifically authorized by the CIA, but no such considerations absolve official enemies. Several of these terrorist operations took place at the time of the Cuban missile crisis of October–November 1962. In the weeks before, Garthoff reports, a Cuban terrorist group operating from Florida with U.S. government authorization carried out “a daring speedboat strafing attack on a Cuban seaside hotel near Havana where Soviet military technicians were known to congregate, killing a score of Russians and Cubans”; and shortly after, attacked British and Cuban cargo ships and again raided Cuba among other actions that were stepped up in early October.

Torture in Latin America, LADOC (Latin American Documentation), Lima, 1987, the report of the First International Seminar on Torture in Latin America (Buenos Aires, December 1985), devoted to “the repressive system” that “has at its disposal knowledge and a multinational technology of terror, developed in specialized centers whose purpose is to perfect methods of exploitation, oppression and dependence of individuals and entire peoples” by the use of “state terrorism inspired by the Doctrine of National Security.” This doctrine can be traced to the historic decision of the Kennedy Administration to shift the mission of the Latin American military to “internal security,” with far-reaching consequences. 18. Raymond Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Brookings Institution, 1987), 17. 19. Ibid., 16f., 78f., 89f., 98. See the references of note 1. Also Bradley Earl Ayers, The War that Never Was (Bobbs-Merrill, 1976); Warren Hinckle and William Turner, The Fish is Red (Harper & Row, 1981); William Blum, The CIA (Zed, 1986); Morris Morley, Imperial State and Revolution (Cambridge, 1987); Taylor Branch and George Crile, “The Kennedy Vendetta: Our Secret War on Cuba,” Harper’s, August 1975. 20.

pages: 410 words: 101,260

Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World by Adam Grant

Albert Einstein, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, availability heuristic, barriers to entry, business process, business process outsourcing, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dean Kamen, double helix, Elon Musk, fear of failure, Firefox, George Santayana, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, job-hopping, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum viable product, Network effects, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, risk tolerance, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Wisdom of Crowds, women in the workforce

Richard Neustadt, a political scientist and presidential adviser, explained that Kennedy held “a series of ad hoc meetings with a small but shifting set of top advisers.” Subsequent studies have also demonstrated that cohesion takes time to develop: A group without stable membership has no opportunity to form a sense of closeness and camaraderie. University of Toronto researcher Glen Whyte points out that in the year after the Bay of Pigs, Kennedy led a cohesive group of mostly the same advisers to an effective resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. We now know that the consensus to launch the Cuban invasion “was not the result of a desire to maintain the group’s cohesiveness or esprit de corps,” explains Stanford psychologist Roderick Kramer. Cohesion doesn’t cause groupthink anywhere else, either. There was another fatal flaw in Janis’s analysis: He studied mostly cohesive groups making bad choices. How do we know that it was actually cohesion—and not the fact that they all ate cereal for breakfast or wore shoes with laces—that drove dysfunctional decisions?

Too often, it is a “catchall used to justify hiring people who are similar to decision makers and rejecting people who are not.” At IDEO, the design consulting firm that created the mouse for Apple, managers throw cultural fit out the window, focusing instead on how potential candidates can improve the culture. * In light of this evidence that authentic dissent works best, I asked Nemeth what she thought of Robert Kennedy’s assigned devil’s advocate role in the Cuban missile crisis. “I think Bobby Kennedy’s role there was to ensure a process of questioning each possibility,” she replied. “What he did was at least make them go through the motions of reconsidering positions—at least defending them. I still don’t think this has the same effect as authentic dissent but it was certainly an improvement over a rush to judgment.” It seems that Robert Kennedy was less of a pure devil’s advocate, and more of what Harvard political scientist Roger Porter calls an honest broker: someone who guided the group through an effective decision process that brought different arguments to the table and evaluated their quality

When everything you say is being recorded, you might as well be open about it—and if you’re not, they’ll find out anyway. As a Bridgewater employee, if you talk behind someone’s back, they’ll call you a slimy weasel to your face. If you do it more than once, you might be sent packing. * The futility of democratic voting as a decision-making process has been clear since the Bay of Pigs debacle, when President Kennedy’s straw poll silenced the opposition. Having learned from that experience, in the Cuban missile crisis, Kennedy sought to bring more dissenting opinions to the table. To prevent the committee from favoring for political reasons the option that pleased him, he started by limiting his own role in the decision-making process, which forced the group to make a more balanced assessment of a broader range of possibilities. As psychologists Andreas Mojzisch and Stefan Schulz-Hardt find, “knowing others’ preferences degrades the quality of group decisions.”

pages: 214 words: 57,614

America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy by Francis Fukuyama


affirmative action, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, European colonialism, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Internet Archive, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus

John Lewis Gaddis has shown that preemption (often unilateral preemption) has been used by American administrations since the early nineteenth century; it was seriously considered at several points during the Cold War. 12 The Eisenhower administration debated a preemptive "rollback" strategy in the early 1950s, and the Kennedy administration considered preempting the Soviet medium-range missiles deployed to Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis. What was revolutionary about the NSS was its expansion of traditional notions of preemption to include what amounted to preventive war. Preemption is usually understood to be an effort to break up an imminent military attack; preventive war is a military operation designed to head off a threat that is months or years away from materializing. The Bush administration argued that in an age of nuclear-armed terrorists, the very distinction between preemption and prevention was outmoded; the restrictive definition of the former needed to be broadened. 13 The United States would periodically find it necessary to reach inside states and create political conditions that would prevent terrorism.

See also nuclear deterrence; Soviet Union Commentary, 17 communism: collapse of, 52-53, 59, 60; differing views of, 50-51; opposition to, 15-17, 50-51 Community of Democracies, 176-77, 187 competition: and political development, 129 conditionality: and structural adjustment loans, 145-47 conservatism, traditional: as compared with neoconservatism, 38-39 2l8 counterinsurgency, 76, 184 crime: and social policy, 19-20 Cuban Missile Crisis, 83 cultural relativism, 22, 23-24 Czechoslovakia, 29 Darfur, 173 Dayton Accords, 98 Dean, Howard, 12 Declaration of Independence, 23 decolonization, 118 democracy, Western: assumptions about, 30-31, 116; as by-product of modernization, 54, 57; and economic development, 128; expansion of, 55-58, in; in Germany, 132; in Japan, 132; and liberal authoritarianism, 140-41; and political development, 125; promotion of, 46-47, 114, 115, 117, 131-38, 140, 150-51, 177, 178, 206m; role of institutions in, 116-18; as solution to terrorism, 74; sources of weakness of, 24 Democratic Party, 61 democratic transitions, 117, 127-30, 176; role of United States in, 131-32, 133,134-38 deterrence.

pages: 153 words: 45,871

Distrust That Particular Flavor by William Gibson


AltaVista, British Empire, cognitive dissonance, cuban missile crisis, edge city, informal economy, means of production, megastructure, pattern recognition, proxy bid, telepresence, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog

Buk’s window, for me, has been like gazing into the back reaches of some cave where Manhattan stores its dreams. There is no knowing what might appear there. Once, a stove-sized, florally ornate cast-iron fragment that might have been a leftover part of the Brooklyn Bridge. Once, a lovingly crafted plywood box containing exquisitely painted models of every ballistic missile in the arsenals of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. at the time of its making. This last, redolent of both the Cold War and the Cuban Missile Crisis, had particularly held my attention. It was obviously a military learning aid, and I wondered what sort of lectures it had illustrated. It seemed, then, a relic from a dark and terrible time that I remembered increasingly as a dream, a very bad dream, of childhood. But the image that kept coming to me, last week, was of the dust that must be settling on the ledge of E. Buk’s window, more or less between Houston and Canal streets.

They are the italics of the perpetually impatient and somehow perpetually unworldly futurist, seeing his model going terminally wrong in the hands of the less clever, the less evolved. And they are with us today, those italics, though I’ve long since learned to run shy of science fiction that employs them. I suspect that I began to distrust that particular flavor of italics when the world didn’t end in October of 1962. I can’t recall the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis at all. My anxiety, and the world’s, reached some absolute peak. And then declined, history moving on, so much of it, and sometimes today the world of my own childhood strikes me as scarcely less remote than the world of Wells’s childhood, so much has changed in the meantime. I may actually have begun to distrust science fiction, then, or rather to trust it differently, as my initial passion for it began to decline, around that time.

Imperial Ambitions: Conversations on the Post-9/11 World by Noam Chomsky, David Barsamian


British Empire, collective bargaining, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, failed state, feminist movement, Howard Zinn, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, liberation theology, Monroe Doctrine, offshore financial centre, Ronald Reagan, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, Westphalian system

Dean Acheson, a respected elder statesman and a senior adviser to the Kennedy administration, delivered a lecture to the American Society of International Law in which he stated that no “legal issue” arises if the United States responds to any challenge to its “power, position, and prestige.”5 The timing of his statement is quite significant. He made it shortly after the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, which virtually drove the world to the edge of nuclear war. The Cuban missile crisis was largely a result of a major campaign of international terrorism aimed at overthrowing Castro—what’s now called regime change, which spurred Cuba to bring in Russian missiles as a defensive measure. Acheson argued that the United States had the right of preventive war against a mere challenge to our position and prestige, not even a threat to our existence.

On Power and Ideology by Chomsky, Noam


anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, feminist movement, imperial preference, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stanislav Petrov, union organizing

The protocol for the Soviet military was to retaliate with a nuclear attack of its own. The officer on duty, Stanislav Petrov, decided to disobey orders and not report the warnings to his superiors. Thanks to his dereliction of duty, we are alive to reflect on the black swan we prefer not to see. Other studies reveal a shocking array of close calls, even apart from the “most dangerous moment in history” during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. An enormous gap in these lectures, not appreciated at the time, was that another and even more ominous threat was inexorably advancing: environmental catastrophe. By now no reasonable person can doubt that we are marching resolutely toward a grim fate, and not far in the future, unless the course we are following is radically altered. Meanwhile, the neoliberal assault on the population that gained force under Reagan has taken an increasing toll, particularly after the collapse of the housing bubble in 2008 and the ensuing financial meltdown, the worst blow to the international economy since the Great Depression.

These were “the good old days,” when the country was still available as a base for U.S. terrorism, subversion and aggression and there was therefore no need for Western humanists to agonize over democracy and human rights in Nicaragua or to conduct a terrorist war in order “to fit Nicaragua back into a Central American mode” and to “demand reasonable conduct by a regional standard,” the proper goal of U.S. policy, the editors of the Washington Post declare—the “regional standard” and “Central American mode” being exemplified by El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and the Somoza regime. The most famous of the 19 incidents was the Cuban missile crisis, when U.S. planners estimated the probability of war at one-third to one-half as they rejected Khrushchev’s offer to end the crisis by the simultaneous withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba and American missiles from Turkey—obsolete missiles in the latter case (they were being replaced by Polaris submarines), for which a withdrawal order had already been issued but not yet executed. This remarkable decision is regarded with much pride among U.S. elites.

pages: 223 words: 58,732

The Retreat of Western Liberalism by Edward Luce

3D printing, affirmative action, Airbnb, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, call centre, carried interest, centre right, cognitive dissonance, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, computer age, corporate raider, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, George Santayana, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, illegal immigration, imperial preference, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, knowledge economy, liberal capitalism, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, moral panic, more computing power than Apollo, mutually assured destruction, new economy, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, offshore financial centre, one-China policy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, Plutocrats, plutocrats, precariat, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, Richard Florida, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, software is eating the world, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, superstar cities, TaskRabbit, telepresence, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, unpaid internship, Washington Consensus, We are the 99%, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, white flight, World Values Survey, Yogi Berra

The first is changing the nature of relations between nations. The second is an upheaval in the internal character of states. Each feeds off and reinforces the other. The biggest duty of any state is to protect the nation from enemies. In the pre-nuclear age, this was accomplished with large-scale armies. During the nuclear era, it moved increasingly to weapons of mass destruction. Although the Cold War involved near-misses, most notably during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, the Americans and the Soviets gradually came to understand each other’s signals. Eventually each was able to read the other’s nuclear grammar fluently. After 1962 the two sides set up a nuclear hotline and even agreed to exchanges of personnel so that they could minimise the risk they would stumble into war. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction worked because it was based on an understanding between two highly organised actors.

., 31, 73, 79–81, 103, 156, 157, 163, 165, 182 Bush Republicans, 189 Cameron, David, 15, 92, 98, 99–100 Carnegie, Andrew, 42–3 Cherokee Indians, 114, 134 Chicago, 48 China: as autocracy, 78, 80, 83–6, 159–60, 165, 201; circular view of history, 11; colonial exploitation of, 20, 22–3, 55; decoupling of economy from West (2008), 29–30, 83–4; democracy activists in, 86, 140; entry to WTO (2001), 26; exceptionalism, 166; expulsion of Western NGOs, 85; future importance of, 200–1; and global trading system, 19–20, 26–7; Great Firewall in, 129; handover of Hong Kong (1997), 163–4; history in popular imagination, 163–4; hostility to Western liberalism, 84–6, 159–60, 162; and hydrogen bomb, 163; and Industrial Revolution, 22, 23–4; internal migration in, 41; investment in developing countries, 32, 84; military expansion, 157, 158; as nuclear power, 175; Obama’s trip to (2009), 159–60; political future of, 168–9, 202; pragmatic development route, 28, 29–30; pre-Industrial Revolution economy, 22; rapid expansion of, 13, 20–2, 25–8, 30, 35, 58, 157, 159; and robot economy, 62; Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 80; Trump’s promised trade war, 135, 145, 149; and Trump’s victory, 85–6, 140; US naval patrols in seas off, 148, 158, 165; US policy towards, 25–6, 145–6, 157–61, 165; US–China war scenario, 145–53, 161; in Western thought, 161–2; Xi’s crackdown on internal dissent, 168; Zheng He’s naval fleet, 165–6 China Central Television (CCTV), 84, 85 Christianity, 10, 105 Churchill, Winston, 98, 117, 128, 169 cities, 47–51, 130 class: creeping gentrification, 46, 48, 50–1; emerging middle classes, 21, 31, 39, 159; in Didier Eribon’s France, 104–10; Golden Age for Western middle class, 33–4, 43; Hillaryland in USA, 87–8; ‘meritocracy’, 43, 44–6; mobility as vanishing in West, 43–6; move rightwards of blue-collar whites, 95–9, 102, 108–10, 189–91, 194–5; poor whites in USA, 95–6, 112–13; populism in late nineteenth century, 110–11; and post-war centre-left politics, 89–92, 99; ‘precariat’ (‘left-behinds’), 12, 13, 43–8, 50, 91, 98–9, 110, 111, 131; and Trump’s agenda, 111, 151, 169, 190; urban liberal elites, 47, 49–51, 71, 87–9, 91–5, 110, 204; West’s middle-income problem, 13, 31–2, 34–41 Clausewitz, Carl von, 161 Clinton, Bill, 26, 71, 73, 90, 97–8, 157–9 Clinton, Hillary, 15, 16, 47, 67, 79, 160, 188; 2016 election campaign, 87–8, 91–4, 95–6, 119, 133; reasons for defeat of, 94–5, 96–8 Cold War: end of, 3–5, 6, 7, 74, 77, 78, 117, 121; nuclear near misses, 174; in US popular imagination, 163; and Western democracy, 115–16, 117, 183 Colombia, 72 colonialism, European, 11, 13, 20, 22–3; anti-colonial movements, 9–10; and Industrial Revolution, 13, 23–5, 55–6 Comey, James, 133 communism, 3–4, 5, 6, 105–8, 115 Confucius Institutes, 84 Congress, US, 133–4 Copenhagen summit (2009), 160 Coughlin, Father, 113 Cowen, Tyler, 40, 50, 57 Crick, Bernard, 138 crime, 47 Crimea, annexation of (2014), 8, 173 Cuba, 165 Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 165, 174 cyber warfare, 176–8 Cyborg, 54 D’Alema, Massimo, 90 Daley, Richard, 189 Danish People’s Party, 102 Davos Forum, 19–20, 27, 68–71, 72–3, 91, 121 de Blasio, Bill, 49 de Gaulle, Charles, 106, 116 de Tocqueville, Alexis, 38, 112, 126–7 democracy, liberal: as an adaptive organism, 87; and America’s Founding Fathers, 9, 112–13, 123, 126, 138; and Arab Spring, 82; Chinese view of US system, 85–6; communism replaces as bête noire, 115; concept of ‘the people’, 87, 116, 119–20; damaged by responses to 9/11 attacks, 79–81, 86, 140, 165; and Davos elite, 68–71; de Tocqueville on, 126–7; declining faith in, 8–9, 12, 14, 88–9, 98–100, 103–4, 119–23, 202–3; demophobia, 111, 114, 119–23; economic growth as strongest glue, 13, 37, 103, 201–2; efforts to suppress franchise, 104, 123; elite disenchantment with, 121; elite fear of public opinion, 69, 111, 118; failing democracies (since 2000), 12, 82–3, 138–9; and ‘folk theory of democracy’, 119, 120; Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’, 5, 14, 181; and global trilemma, 72–3; and Great Recession, 83–4; and Hong Kong, 164; idealism of Rousseau and Kant, 126; illiberal democracy concept, 119, 120, 136–7, 138–9, 204; in India, 201; individual rights and liberty, 14, 97, 120; late twentieth century democratic wave, 77–8, 83; and mass distraction, 127, 128–30; need for regaining of optimism, 202–3; need to abandon deep globalisation, 73–4; nineteenth-century fear of, 114–15; and plural society, 139; popular will concept, 87, 118, 119–20, 126, 137–8; post-Cold War triumphalism, 5, 6, 71; post-war golden era, 33–4, 43, 89, 116, 117; post-WW2 European constitutions, 116; and ‘precariat’ (‘left-behinds’), 12, 13, 43–8, 50, 91, 98–9, 110, 111, 131; the rich as losing faith in, 122–3; Russia’s hostility to, 6–8, 79, 85; space for as shrinking, 72–3; technocratic mindset of elites, 88–9, 92–5, 111; Trump as mortal threat to, 97, 104, 111, 126, 133–6, 138, 139, 161, 169–70, 178–84, 203–4; and US-led invasion of Iraq (2003), 8, 81, 85; Western toolkit for, 77–9; see also politics in West Diamond, Larry, 83 digital revolution, 51–5, 59–66, 67–8, 174; cyber-utopians, 52, 60, 65; debate over future impact, 56; and education, 197, 198; exponential rate of change, 170, 172, 197; internet, 34, 35, 127, 128, 129–30, 131, 163; internet boom (1990s), 34, 59; and low productivity growth, 34, 59, 60; as one-sided exchange, 66–7; and risk-averse/conformist mindset, 40 diplomacy and global politics: annexation of Crimea (2014), 8, 173; China’s increased prestige, 19–20, 26–8, 29–30, 35, 83–5, 159; declining US/Western hegemony, 14, 21–2, 26–8, 140–1, 200–1; existential challenges in years ahead, 174–84; multipolarity concept, 6–8, 70; and nation’s popular imagination, 162–3; parallels with 1914 period, 155–61; and US ‘war on terror’, 80–1, 140, 183; US–China relations, 25–6, 145–6, 157–61, 165; US–China war scenario, 145–53, 161; US–Russia relations under Obama, 79 Doha Round, 73 drugs and narcotics, 37–8 Drutman, Lee, 68 Dubai, 48 Durkheim, Émile, 37 Duterte, Rodrigo, 136–7, 138 economists, 27 economy, global see global economy; globalisation, economic; growth, economic Edison, Thomas, 59 education, 42, 44–5, 53, 55, 197, 198 Egypt, 82, 175 electricity, 58, 59 Elephant Chart, 31–3 Enlightenment, 24, 104 entrepreneurialism, decline of in West, 39–40 Erdoğan, Recep Tayyip, 137 Eribon, Didier, 104–10, 111 Ethiopia, 82 Europe: ‘complacent classes’ in, 40; decline of established parties, 89; geopolitical loss, 141; growth of inequality in modern era, 43; identity politics in, 139–40; migration crisis, 70, 100, 140, 180–1; nationalism in, 10–11, 102, 108–9; nineteenth-century diplomacy, 7–8, 155–6, 171–2; post-war constitutions in, 116; Putin’s interference in, 179, 180; as turning inwards, 14 European Commission, 118, 120 European Union, 72, 117–19, 139–40, 179–80, 181, 201; see also Brexit Facebook, 39, 54, 67, 178 fake news, 130, 148, 178–9 Farage, Nigel, 98–9, 100, 184 fascism, 5, 77, 97, 100, 117 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 131–2, 133 Felt, Mark, 131–2, 134 financial crisis, global (2008), 27, 29, 30, 91; Atlantic recession following, 30, 63–4, 83–4 financial services, 54 Financial Times, 136, 200 Finland, 139 First World War, 115, 154–5 Flake, Jeff, 134 Florida, Richard, 47, 49, 50, 51 Flynn, Michael, 148, 149 Foa, Roberto Stefan, 123 Ford, Henry, 66–7 Foucault, Michel, 107 France, 15, 37, 63, 102, 104–10, 116; 1968 Paris demonstrations, 188; French Revolution, 3 Franco, General Francisco, 77 Franco-German War (1870–1), 155–6 Frank, Robert H., 30, 35–6, 44 Franklin, Benjamin, 204, 63 Friedman, Ben, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, 38 Friedman, Thomas, 74 Frontex (border agency), 181 FSB, 6 Fukuyama, Francis, 12, 83, 101, 139, 193–4; ‘The End of History?’

pages: 1,744 words: 458,385

The Defence of the Realm by Christopher Andrew


active measures, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Clive Stafford Smith, collective bargaining, credit crunch, cuban missile crisis, Desert Island Discs, Etonian, Fall of the Berlin Wall, glass ceiling, illegal immigration, job satisfaction, large denomination, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, Mahatma Gandhi, Mikhail Gorbachev, Neil Kinnock, North Sea oil, Red Clydeside, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, strikebreaker, Torches of Freedom, traveling salesman, union organizing, uranium enrichment, V2 rocket, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, Winter of Discontent

The Foreign Office paid little, if any, attention to the warning. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, Ward was used once again, this time on the initiative of the Russians, as a confidential channel for communications between Moscow and London. MI5 ‘again drew the attention of the Foreign Office to the dangers of using Ward for such purposes’.70 Already fond of boasting about his close contacts with the highest in the land, Ward interpreted his use as a back-channel between Moscow and London at the most dangerous moment of the Cold War as proof that Whitehall had assigned him a major role as an intermediary between East and West. MI5 was informed by a source whom it believed to be reliable: Ward says that at the height of the Cuban missile crisis . . . Ivanov brought another Russian official, (Vitalij) Loginov [chargé d’affaires] to see Ward: ‘We had practically a Cabinet meeting one night.

One recalls Mitchell as a ‘civilised, humane man’, considerate in his treatment of junior colleagues. 55 See below, p. 509. 56 Security Service Archives. 57 Security Service Archives. 58 Security Service Archives. 59 Security Service Archives. 60 Interview with Ward by Warwick Charlton, Today, 11 May 1963. 61 Security Service Archives. 62 Security Service Archives. 63 Security Service Archives. 64 Security Service Archives. 65 Security Service Archives. 66 Security Service Archives. 67 Security Service Archives. 68 Security Service Archives. 69 Security Service Archives. 70 Security Service Archives. 71 Security Service Archives. Ward later gave a similarly inflated account of his role during the Cuban Missile Crisis to the writer Warwick Charlton, who published it in Today on 11 May 1963. 72 Scott, Macmillan, Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis, pp. 104–7. 73 Security Service Archives. 74 Security Service Archives. 75 Knightley and Kennedy, Affair of State, ch. 1. 76 Introduction by Lord Denning to 1992 reissue of The Denning Report. 77 Security Service Archives. 78 Security Service Archives. 79 Christopher Andrew, interview with Sir Dick White, 1984. 80 Security Service Archives. 81 Security Service Archives. 82 Security Service Archives. 83 Security Service Archives. 84 Pearson, Profession of Violence, pp. 115–16, 120, 122.

Hollis, who is Sir Dick White’s deputy.’46 At the time White gave Hollis his enthusiastic support.47 He later changed his mind, writing in a sympathetic obituary that, though respected within the Service during his nine years as DG, Hollis ‘did not enjoy easy personal relations with its ordinary members who tended to find him reserved and aloof’.48 Some, probably many, did not meet him at all. One staff member who encountered Hollis in the lift and failed to recognize him, said: ‘Oh, we haven’t met. What section are you?’ ‘I am the DG,’ replied Hollis.49 Perhaps the ultimate example of Hollis’s remote management style came during the thirteen days of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, the most dangerous moment in British history. Though the crisis was caused by the American discovery of Soviet nuclear missile bases under construction in Cuba, the threat to Britain, the United States’ chief ally, was even greater than to America itself. There must have seemed to many Service staff, as to much of the British population, a real danger that the crisis would end in thermonuclear warfare and the obliteration of the United Kingdom.

pages: 274 words: 70,481

The Psychopath Test: A Journey Through the Madness Industry by Jon Ronson


Albert Einstein, corporate raider, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach, impulse control, Norman Mailer, Ronald Reagan, Skype

At that young age it’s an extremely difficult transition. . . .” He trailed off. “So you saw your wife as something that was holding you back?” I said. Al shrugged and glanced at the floor for a moment. “I was stationed on a nuclear missile site,” he said. “You’re dealing with nuclear weapons. I was there during the Cuban missile crisis. The job’s very serious. You’ve got a mission. If you fail the mission, a lot of people could be seriously hurt. And does that commitment conflict with your family life? Of course it does. . . .” Al was referring to the time during the Cuban missile crisis that he left his five-months-pregnant wife home alone with no food or access to money and in desperation she had to call her mother and sister for help. “Oh!” I said. “One more thing. When you see a crime-scene photograph—something really grotesque, someone’s face blown apart or something—do you react with horror?”

pages: 255 words: 68,829

How PowerPoint Makes You Stupid by Franck Frommer


Albert Einstein, business continuity plan, cuban missile crisis, dematerialisation, hypertext link, invention of writing, inventory management, invisible hand, Just-in-time delivery, knowledge worker, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, new economy, oil shock, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, union organizing

On the subject of “information culture” more generally, it is worth consulting Armand Mattelart, Histoire de la société de l’information (Paris: La Découverte, 2001), 35–41, where one discovers the essential role of the former mathematician, Harvard professor, and president of Ford, Robert McNamara, in the rationalization of management in the Kennedy administration, where he was secretary of defense during the Cuban missile crisis and the beginnings of the Vietnam War. The American sociologist Daniel Bell names in the pantheon of figures inspiring technocracy Henri de Saint-Simon, Frederick Taylor, and Robert McNamara. 9. See, for example,,, 10. Some ironically decipher the acronym as please don’t change anything, to demonstrate that quality has already been achieved. 11.

See illustration The Cognitive Style of PowerPoint (Tufte), xiii–xiv, 201 on graphs, 89–90 on lists, 60, 64 Commodore, 9 communication normalized, 224 and screen, 79 societal foundation, 225 and work, 33–34 Compaq, 9 competencies, 210–14 employment, 213–14 school, 211 work, 212 computer home ownership, 220 use in higher education, 199, 220 See also microcomputer computer science, 134 consultants, 130–35, 141–51, 181–82, 188 Anglo versus European, 146–48 company slides, 145–46 computer science, 134 formalization, 132 Minto pyramid principle, 145 models, 131–33 Taylor & Fayol, 131 reductionism, 132, 135 content versus form, 42–43 form dominates, 126, 222 control education, 221 and PowerPoint, 46–48 Conway, Melvin, 63 Craig, Russell, 201 critical thinking, 165, 228 cryptography, 19 Cuban missile crisis, 155–56 Darcos, Xavier, 181, 218, 220 Debord, Guy, 223, 226 Del Rey, Angélique, 211 Deming, William Edwards, 136 Deming’s wheel, 136 diagrams and graphs, 86–92, 135–41 BCG matrix, 137 Deming’s wheel, 136 flow chart, 140 Porter matrix, 137–38 SWOT matrix, 139 See also illustration Diffie, Whitfield, 19–20 digital natives, 214, 224 digital workplace, 217–21 Duarte, Nancy, 86 DuPont and graphic presentations, 2–3 econometrics, 133 economization, 168–75, 181–82 education, 199–209 business, 192, 211–12 competencies, 210–14 computer use, 199, 220 digitalization, 216–22 digital workplace, 217–21 divisions by discipline, 200, 208–9 employment, 206–7, 213–14 expenditures for training, 192–93 France versus Anglo-Saxon, 208, 216 humanities and social sciences, 205–7 employability, 206–7 images and animation, 203 note taking abandoned, 204 outcomes, 201, 220 PowerPoint, 214–15 versus learning, 197–99, 201–2, 227–28 versus teaching, 204–5 privatization, 219 sell yourself, 222 whiteboards, 215–17 See also readability employee adaptability, 32, 41 autonomous, 8–9, 12, 28, 48 and employer relations, 212 See also Taylorism; workplace English, 53, 208 See also language Enjeux–Les Échos, 224 Eurotunnel, 70–71 Facebook, 65 Fallows, James, 159, 161 Farkas, David, 51, 200 Fayol, Henri, 131 Fiasco (Ricks), 163–64 Le Figaro, 205 flow chart, 140 Forethought, 21 France economization, 168–75, 181–82 education, 209 versus Anglo-Saxon, 208, 216 France Telecom, 180–89 jobs, 182, 189 slides, 183–89 Franks, Tommy, 163 Friedman, Milton, 191 Gaglio, Gérard, 34, 39, 102, 105 Gallo, Carmine, 117–18 The Presentation Secrets of Steve Jobs, 117 Gardiner, Sam, 159–60 Gaskins, Robert, 15–25, 39 background, 17–18 Bell Northern to Forethought, 20–21 criticizes PowerPoint, 24–25 first PowerPoint presentation, 15–16 Microsoft acquires PowerPoint, 21–22 Gates, Bill, 21, 115–16 Gaulejac, Vincent de, 223 globalization, 173–74 See also economization Godin, Seth, 86 Goody, Jack, 57–58 Google, 65, 94, 97 Gore, Al, 227 An Inconvenient Truth, 73, 118–24 Apple Macintosh, 120 awards and ticket sales, 119 biographical details, 121 graphic presentation.

Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics by Francis Fukuyama


Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, energy security, flex fuel, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John von Neumann, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Norbert Wiener, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, The Wisdom of Crowds, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Yom Kippur War

He also foresaw most of the personal computing functions now taken for granted—graphing, simulations, modeling, and more. 2990-7 ch06 bonvillian 64 7/23/07 12:10 PM Page 64 william b. bonvillian These insights served Licklider well in the new assignment coming his way. President John F. Kennedy and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara were deeply frustrated by the profound command-and-control problems they encountered during the Cuban missile crisis, particularly the inability to obtain and analyze real-time data and interact with on-the-scene military commanders. DARPA called on Licklider, already at the agency, to tackle the problem. Strongly backed by noted early DARPA directors Jack Ruina and Charles Herzfeld, Licklider set in place a remarkable support network of early information technology researchers at universities and firms that, over time, built the sinews of personal computing and the Internet.

., 108 Conventional wisdom, strategic surprises challenging, 94, 95 Convergence, in information technology innovations, 123–25 Corn, ethanol from, 78–79 Cost-benefit analysis: definition of, 14–15; future in, 15, 16, 18–19; inverse, 16–17; limitations of, 14–19, 171; need for, 4; tolerable windows in, 17–18; uncertainty in, 16–18; value of life in, 15–16 Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia, 43 Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, 83–84 Cuban missile crisis, 64 Cultural barriers, to preparing for catastrophes, 13–14 Cultures, capacity for adaptation in, 154–55 Currency devaluation, in East Asian economic crisis, 43, 44, 47–48 Currency undervaluation, in East Asian economic crisis, 44, 47, 49 Cyber-nations, 156–57 DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), 57–70; creation of, 63; innovation organization at, index 63–67; lessons learned from, 59–60; as model for energy dilemma, 59–60, 67–70; precursors of, 60–63; rise of, 63–65 Darul Islam, 144 Data collection, filters in, 99–100 Day after Tomorrow, The (film), 105, 140 Debt, private, in East Asian economic crisis, 44–45, 46, 48 Debt of Honor (Clancy), 93 Defense, Department of, DARPA’s work with, 64–65, 68 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein


affirmative action, Andrei Shleifer, availability heuristic, Build a better mousetrap,, Cass Sunstein, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Edward Glaeser,, feminist movement, framing effect, hindsight bias, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Jean Tirole, jimmy wales, market bubble, market design, minimum wage unemployment, prediction markets, profit motive, rent control, Richard Stallman, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, slashdot, stem cell, The Wisdom of Crowds, winner-take-all economy

In a hidden profile experiment, a devil’s advocate should be able to do a lot of good. Note that in the blogosphere, it is tempting to try to make a name for oneself, or at least to have a little fun, by taking a contrarian position. The question is whether deliberating groups can give people an incentive to challenge the emerging or conventional wisdom. In at least one well-known case, this approach appeared to work. “During the Cuban missile crisis, President Kennedy 210 / Infotopia gave his brother, the Attorney General, the unambiguous mission of playing devil’s advocate, with seemingly excellent results in breaking up a premature consensus,”20 a consensus that might well have led to war. Research on devil’s advocacy in small groups provides suggestive evidence of the effectiveness of devil’s advocacy in real-world settings.21 Many experimenters have found that protection of genuine dissenting views can enhance group performance.22 But a formal requirement of devil’s advocacy enhances group performance far less than does authentic dissent.

., 36, 49–51 Constitutional Convention (1787), 49 conventional wisdom, 29, 201, 210 Cooper, David, 61–62 Copenhagen Consensus, 40, 237.n43 copyleft licenses, 167–68, 179 copyrights, 153–54, 164–67, 179–80 corroboration, 55, 95 Cowgill, Bo, 115, 116 Creative Commons License, 153, 179–80 creativity, 55, 180, 218, 222 open source projects and, 15, 177, 179, 195, 222 credibility, 85, 88 criminal punishment, 68 critical thinking, 201, 204, 213, 223 Cuban missile crisis (1962), 210–11 cultural differences, deliberation and, 71 cumulative knowledge, 9–11, 152 Cunningham, Ward, 149 customer reviews, 10, 18, 192–94 Daily Kos (blog), 6, 181, 189–90 Daily Me (personalized news), 9, 19, 97–98, 147, 219, 224 Daily Us (concept), 10, 11, 15, 219 Index / 261 DARPA Grand Challenge race, 116 Daschle, Tom, 107 Dean, Howard, 99 decision making, 12, 197 Defense Department, U.S., 3–4, 5, 107–8, 131–32, 198 deliberation, 11–14, 43, 45–103, 128, 130, 197, 218 accuracy and, 57–65, 84, 96, 200, 205, 209 amplification of errors and, 14, 17, 75–81, 101, 220 anonymity in, 208, 209, 223 Aristotle on, 49, 119 bias and, 58, 78, 80–81, 96, 212, 242n.8 blogs and, 190 cascade effects in, 14, 17, 75, 88– 92, 98–100, 201, 203, 205, 220 deferral in, 60, 66–67, 215, 216 errors and, 17, 35, 48, 54, 56, 58, 70–71, 96, 201, 221 experts and, 53–54, 65, 207, 211–12 failure factors in, 65–70, 83 failures of, 12–14 group confidence and unity in, 14, 55–57, 78, 86, 95, 102, 206, 238n.15 group polarization in, 17, 75, 92–98, 203, 205, 220–21 hidden profiles and, 17, 81–88, 100–101, 102, 203, 204, 205, 210, 212 improvement of, 19, 69, 102, 200–216, 223 incentives and, 201, 203–5, 223 information aggregation and, 7, 14, 54, 57–58, 70, 81–82 262 / Index informational influences on, 13–14, 66–67, 70–71, 79, 86– 88, 201, 220 Internet and, 8, 58, 148 key preconditions for, 71–73 majority rule in, 64–65 minority views in, 66, 70 in open source software development, 175, 176–77 prediction markets and, 104, 131, 145 private vs. social benefits and, 69–70, 104 problems concerning, 75–102 role assignment in, 211–12 self-silencing in, 14, 67–68, 70, 203–4, 209, 210 social pressures and, 14, 67–71, 79, 86–88, 203–4, 208–10, 220 statistical groups vs., 57, 58, 59–60 status of members and, 70, 87– 88, 206–8 success mechanisms of, 52–55 synergy and learning in, 54–55, 220 theory and practice of, 49–52 truth and, 53, 57, 63–65, 66, 96, 200, 216 Wikipedia and, 152, 195 deliberative democracy, 11–14, 49– 52, 72, 102 deliberative polls, 11–12 Delphi technique, 208–10 democracy, 202–3, 224 Condorcet Jury Theorem and, 27, 35–36, 43, 51 deliberative, 11–14, 49–52, 72, 102 majority rule and, 26–27 Democrats, 14, 70–71, 93, 95, 99, 214 Descartes, René, 217 Deutsche Bank, 117 devil’s advocates, 210–11 dictatorships, 202 disclosure, deliberation and, 69– 70, 201, 203–4 discrimination, 76 dispersed information, 15, 19, 197 blogs and, 18–19, 189, 218, 223 deliberation and, 49, 54, 57, 63, 75 deliberative democracy and, 50 experimental efforts in aggregating, 191–95 Hayek’s view of, 118–21, 130, 137 new technologies and, 217–18 open source initiatives and, 19, 166, 175, 177, 195, 218, 222 prediction markets and, 6, 19, 118–21, 130, 135–37, 144, 198 wikis and, 19, 152, 218, 222 dissenters in deliberating groups, 66, 67–68 devil’s advocates as, 210–11 diversity, 46, 50, 55, 213 dKosopedia (wiki), 6, 160 documentation creation, 149 Dorgan, Byron, 107 Dreamworks, 4–5 drug companies, 177 Dukakis, Michael, 138–39 Dylan, Bob, 166 Eastman Kodak, 163 eBay, 18, 194 echo chambers, 8, 97, 188, 191, 218, 224 Edley, Christopher, 214 efficient capital markets hypothesis, 127 egocentric bias, 80 Ehrlich, Paul, 144–45 elections, 40–41, 108–11, 138–42 Eli Lilly, 117 encyclopedias, online, 160.

pages: 637 words: 128,673

Democracy Incorporated by Sheldon S. Wolin


affirmative action, Berlin Wall, British Empire, centre right, collective bargaining, colonial rule, corporate governance, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, illegal immigration, invisible hand, mass incarceration, money market fund, mutually assured destruction, new economy, offshore financial centre, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, single-payer health, stem cell, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thorstein Veblen

As then Vice President Nixon explained, “tactical atomic explosives are now conventional.”52 When the Cold War threatened to become too normal and abstract, déjà vu all over again, there would be “war scares,” including air raid drills during which children practiced protecting themselves from nuclear attacks by huddling under their schoolroom desks.53 Perhaps the most unnerving example of the mentality at work constructing a Cold War power imaginary was the doctrine of “Mutual Assured Destruction” formulated in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Instead of targeting an enemy’s military facilities “each side should target the other’s cities” in order to cause the most casualties possible. “The assumption behind it,” according to one historian, “was that if no one could be sure of surviving a nuclear war, there would not be one.”54 If there had been one, incinerated parents could die comforted with the knowledge that, thanks to school desks, their children would have been spared.

Foreign affairs, like military affairs, were about power politics, unpredictable dangers—including threats to the very existence of the nation—complex strategies, and “the” national interest, subjects about which average citizens lacked the experience and competence to judge. The models for the kind of experienced expertise qualified to deal with high matters of state were the “wise men” assembled by President Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis and later by President Johnson for Vietnam strategies.11 Although the one was a near nuclear disaster (averted because in the end JFK followed his own judgment) and the other a clear disaster (plunged into because LBJ did follow his more hawkish advisers), neither resulted in discrediting the status of elitism or its claims. Two prominent neocons predicted that installing “a decent and democratic government in Baghdad” would be “a manageable task for the U.S.”12 As the second Iraq war proved, failure merely stiffens the resolve of elites and their defenders.

Bush administration, 94, 109, 143 and government, 111, 136, 137, 138–41, 144, 145–47, 160, 169 and health care, 109 Huntington on, 180, 181 and inequalities, 157, 269 and instability, 128, 129 and inverted totalitarianism, xviii, xxi, 44, 45, 47, 56–57, 61, 139, 185, 238–39 and Iraqi economy, 88 and Iraq War, 93, 193–94 and liberalism, 220 lobbying by, 51 and low-wage workers, 196 and managed citizenry, 107 and Mansfield, 173 and military, 45, 135, 136, 199–200 and myth, 13 and opinion manipulation, 60 political incorporation of, 91 political influence of, 66–67 and political parties, 201 and presidency, 102, 103 and Reagan, 272 and religion, 46, 116, 127, 128–29 and Republican Party, 63, 127, 150, 187, 201 rise of, xxii and Rumsfeld, 169 and science, 126, 132 and Smith, 123 and social programs, 111 and state, xxiii, 58, 63, 67, 87, 92, 112–13, 131, 135, 143, 195, 200, 220, 238–39, 284, 287 and Straussians, 168 and Superpower, 62, 102–3, 131, 132, 133, 139, 143 and taxation, 274 and technology, 132 and wartime sacrifice, 109–10. See also business Corwin, Edward, Total War and the Constitution, 16–17, 41–42, 50 Coughlin, Charles, 23 criminal justice system, 57, 58. See also judiciary/courts Cromwell, Oliver, 251 Cuba, 190 Cuban Missile Crisis, 33, 165 culture, xviii, 61, 63, 157 culture wars, 111–12, 224 Dahl, Robert, 51 Darwin, Charles, xxii Dean, Howard, 205, 216, 324n14 defendants, rights of, 78, 108, 182, 235. See also judiciary/courts deficits, 157, 270 Delay, Tom, 119 democracy: and American colonies, 150–51, 254, 255 and antidemocracy, xx–xxi and archaism, 121 Athenian, 95, 150, 151, 242–48, 256 as breaking with past, 273, 274, 275 and capitalism, 34, 267, 268–69 and citizens, 290–91 citizens as agents in, 60 citizens as source of power in, 90–91 and citizens’ participation, 121, 186–87 citizens’ responsibility in, 138 and classic totalitarianism, 50 and Cold War, 26, 36 and Cold War liberals, 27 conditional basis of authority in, 173 and consent, 76, 77, 79 consolidation of American, xix and Constitution, 219, 225–30, 242, 254 constitutional, 104 as contributing to Nazism and Fascism, 52–54 and corporations, 139–40, 187, 258 corruption in, 245 decline of, 107 and despotism, 79–80 development of American, 255–58 and education, 161 and election of 2000, 102 and elections, 147–48 and elites, 55, 159, 160, 166, 173, 234, 245–46 and empire, 20, 52, 70, 97, 100, 189, 191, 194, 244–45, 247–48, 267, 273 and equality, 61, 186, 268–69 essentials of, 212–13 and everyday vs. virtual reality, 268 exclusion of, 134 and extraordinary majority, 156 as failing, 259–60 and foreign policy, 165 and Founding Fathers, 155, 225–30, 229 and free enterprise, 91, 92 fugitive, 23, 227, 254, 255, 277, 278, 287, 288, 290 and government regulation, 195 and grievances, 255 Huntington on, 179, 181 and inequalities through capitalism, 157 and Internet, 233 and inverted totalitarianism, xxiv, 46, 47, 49, 52, 61, 259 in Iraq, 141–42 and Iraq War, 50 and irrationality, 280 Jefferson on, 256–57 and liberalism, 270 limited role of, 257 local character of, 291 Machiavelli on, 151–52 managed, xxiv, 47, 97, 102, 136–37, 140, 141, 142, 143, 149, 150, 155, 156, 157, 159, 166, 213, 229, 240, 257, 273, 280, 287 and managers, 145 Mansfield’s contempt for, 172 and military, 147 and The National Security Strategy of the United States, 85 Negroponte on, 134 and New Deal, 273 and NSC-68, 31 nurturance of, 81 and the people, 243 and Plato, 266 plebiscitary, 54 and postclassical Europe, 248–49 and privatization, 213 and public service, 146 and Putney debates, 250–53 and redress, 227 and religion, 2–3, 119 and Republican Party, 187, 224 revival of, 259, 273–75, 287–92 sacrifice under, 108 self-distrust of, 110 shareholder, 65 Smith on, 21 and Strauss, 167, 171 and Superpower, 51, 100, 101, 107, 233, 237, 260, 267 Tocqueville on, 79 and totalitarianism, 42–43, 54 and truth, 260–67 Turner on, 232–33 values of, 269 Zakaria’s attack on, 174–77, 178 Democratic Convention of 1968, 216 Democratic Party: centrism of, 206, 325n24 and Cold War, 27 in Congress, 111, 202–3 conservatism of, 206–7 constituency of, 149 and corporations, 207 and election of 2000, 166 and election of 2004, 205–6 and elimination of social programs, 156 and environment, 206, 207–8 financing of, 195 and government as enemy, 157 as inauthentic opposition, 201 and Iraq War, 103–4, 110 as majority party, 286, 287 and small government, 136 demos: and American colonies, 254 Athenian, 243, 246, 247, 250 decline of power of, 194 defined, 278 development of, 289–90 and elites, 290 and evolving American democracy, 258 fragmented, 277 as fugitive, 288 grievances of, 255 as irrational, 282 modern, 250 and past, 276 power of, 249–50.

pages: 550 words: 154,725

The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation by Jon Gertner


Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, Black Swan, business climate, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, complexity theory, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, Edward Thorp, horn antenna, Hush-A-Phone, information retrieval, invention of the telephone, James Watt: steam engine, Karl Jansky, knowledge economy, Leonard Kleinrock, Metcalfe’s law, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Picturephone, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Robert Metcalfe, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, Telecommunications Act of 1996, traveling salesman, uranium enrichment, William Shockley: the traitorous eight

“Kennedy and [his science advisor Jerome] Wiesner and I got down on our hands and knees and we got under the desk and found somebody had put it in a drawer,” Baker later remarked. “And then we explained the whole technology.” Kennedy often invited Baker into his private quarters for discussions; he likewise called him at his Bell Labs office, at least once trying to find out if Jim Fisk might take a job in the administration.38 During the Cuban Missile Crisis—a crisis brought on by the interpretation of information, in this case aerial photographs—Baker also became a fixture in the cabinet room.39 In the early 1960s, Baker’s closest associate in Washington was Clark Clifford, an advisor to Kennedy and the chairman of the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. At the PFIAB, Baker and Edwin Land, the inventor of the Polaroid camera, drove the agenda.

The quote I’ve included reflects some of the inserted text that Baker had noted in the margins of his draft. AT&T archives. 36 Bamford, The Puzzle Palace, pp. 427–29. 37 New Scientist, January 30, 1975, p. 274. 38 Baker’s handwritten notes. Baker Collection, Princeton University. 39 William O. Baker, National Reconnaissance Office Oral History. “I was sitting around the Cabinet room during the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962,” Baker would recall, and ultimately served as a “legman,” going back and forth between the White House and State Department, relaying information about the Russian fleets steaming toward Cuba with their cargo. 40 Clark Clifford, “Serving the President,” New Yorker, May 6, 13, 20, 1991. According to both Baker and Clifford, the two men were eating lunch together in the White House mess when they were informed that Kennedy had been shot in Dallas. 41 Louis Tordella, letter to William O.

., 4–5, 177, 178, 179, 197, 203 Clifford, Clark, 248, 328 codes, 124–25, 126 Coll, Steve, 271 Columbia University, 43 communication and messages, 121, 125–26, 128–32 cryptography and, 124–25, 131, 141, 147 digital, 129–31, 185, 250–51 optical, 256–61 pattern followed by, 128 Communications Development Training Program (CDT; “Kelly College”), 153, 293 Communications Satellite Act, 224 computers, 105–6, 155, 182, 184, 197, 226, 235, 250, 252, 253 chess, 136, 137–38, 143, 322 digital, 123, 251 Echo and, 214 electronic switching and, 233 music and, 225, 244, 325–27 Shannon and, 117–18, 136–44 COMSAT, 224 Conant, James, 157 “Convergence in Webster” game, 133, 197 copper, 83, 84, 86 Cornell University, 14 Corning Glass Works, 261, 262, 277, 278 Craig, Cleo, 179–80 Crawford Hill, 214–18, 220, 223, 258, 259, 340 Cronkite, Walter, 226 cryptography, 124–25, 131, 141, 147 Cuban Missile Crisis, 248 Cutler, C. Chapin, 214 cybernetics, 142 Danielian, N. R., 45–47 Darrow, Karl, 41–42, 43, 202 David, Edward, 228, 229, 238 Davisson, Clinton J. “Davy,” 28–30, 32, 33, 37, 40, 43, 52, 60, 61, 69, 152, 353, 359 Murray Hill complex and, 76 DeButts, John, 273–74, 298 De Forest, Lee, 23 Depression, Great, 36, 37, 41, 43, 75 digital computing, 123, 251 digital information, 129–31, 185, 250–51 digital photography, 261 DiPiazza, Gerry, 293–95 discovery, invention vs., 106–7 Distant Early Warning (DEW) line, 161, 182 “Don’t Write: Telegraph” (Pierce), 202–3 Dorros, Irwin, 239, 264, 265, 333 Drucker, Peter, 302–3, 330 DuBridge, Lee, 157, 245 DuPont, 167 Echo, 212–20, 221, 222, 224, 225, 226, 227, 228, 244, 254, 323, 340 Edison, Thomas, 11–13, 14, 29, 81, 152 carbon granules and, 12, 20 Einstein, Albert, 43, 51, 267 Shannon and, 121, 131–32 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 157, 182, 217–18, 246, 247 electrolytes, 93–94, 95 electromagnetic waves, 235–36 electron diffraction, 37 electronic switching (ESS), 229, 231–34, 235, 260, 261, 290–91 electrons, 15, 42, 43, 83–84, 85, 95, 101 Electrons and Holes in Semiconductors (Shockley), 112 Elizabeth II, Queen, 224 Elmendorf, Chuck, 55, 192–94, 236, 283, 288, 312, 358 energy innovation, 355–56 Engel, Joel, 287–91, 294–95, 354 Epstein, Paul, 15 Espenschied, Lloyd, 63–64 Facebook, 344, 353–54 Fairchild Semiconductor, 251, 252 Fano, Robert, 131 Federal Communications Commission (FCC), 226–27, 260, 270–72, 280–83, 286–88, 290, 295–97, 302, 329 Fermi, Enrico, 43, 60 Feynman, Richard, 42, 63 fiber optics, 258–62, 277–79, 331, 341 testing of, 296–97 field effect, 90–91, 92, 101 Fisk, Jim, 2, 3, 38, 41, 43, 55, 59–60, 68–72, 80, 88, 133, 159, 170, 184–85, 211–13, 234–37, 242, 245–46, 248, 252, 254, 258, 260, 263, 268, 285, 300, 304, 306, 307, 311–13 Baker and, 241–42, 243 retirement of, 266 Fleckenstein, Bill, 237 Fletcher, Harvey, 15, 16, 22, 25, 26, 28, 40, 43, 65, 80, 96, 267 Jewett and, 24 Flexner, Simon, 205 Forrester, Jay, 105–6, 334 Fortune, 142, 163–64, 166, 184–85, 219, 243, 270 Frenkiel, Dick, 284–96, 351 Friis, Harald, 152–53, 174, 196, 206, 209, 213 Fry, Thornton, 122–23 Fuller, Cal, 168–69, 171–72 functional devices, 252 Galambos, Louis, 19–20 Gallatin, Mo., 9–11, 38, 342 Gates, Bill, 4, 357 General Electric (GE), 163, 251, 303, 348 germanium, 86–87, 93–95, 99, 102–4, 107, 109–10, 165–66, 168, 169 purification of, 114, 134 Gibney, Robert B., 93, 96 Ginsparg, Paul, 337 glass, 83 Glennan, Keith, 211 glider planes, 189–90, 192 Goeken, Jack, 271 “Gold Bug, The” (Poe), 124 Golden, William, 157 Goodell, Rae, 313 Google, 341, 344, 353–54 Gordon, Eugene, 109 Gould, Gordon, 255 Gray, Elisha, 17–18, 98 Greene, Harold, 297–98, 299, 302 Gunther-Mohr, Robert, 305–6 Hagelbarger, David, 144, 148 Hagstrum, Homer, 201–2 Hartley, Ralph, 121 Hayes, Brian, 339 Hecht, Jeff, 259 Herriott, Donald, 256 Hewlett, Bill, 308 Hewlett-Packard, 308, 319 Hill, Charles, 179–80 Hoddeson, Lillian, 44, 79, 88, 105 Hoerni, Jean, 181 Holmdel, 213–17, 278, 281 Black Box, 284–85, 331, 338, 339, 340, 354 Crawford Hill, 214–18, 220, 223, 258, 259, 340 horn antenna, 173–74, 206, 207, 209, 215, 223 Howard Hughes Medical Institute, 354–55 How to Build and Fly Gliders (Pierce), 189, 190, 192, 200 Hughes Aircraft, 255 IBM, 348 Kelly as consultant for, 305–6 Imperial College of Science and Engineering, 141 information, 342 digital, 129–31, 185, 250–51 see also communication and messages information theory, 125, 128–30, 135, 136, 141, 142, 149, 151, 185–86, 202, 281, 318–19 innovation, 152–53, 250, 260, 343–44 competition and, 352 energy, 355–56 at Janelia Farm, 355 Kelly’s approach to, 151–52, 186, 211, 343, 345, 347 mistakes in, 262 Morton on, 108–9, 113, 152 spurs to, 153 use of term, 107, 151–52 venture economy and, 347–48 innovation hubs, 355 innovator’s dilemma, 349–50 Institute of Radio Engineers, 203 integrated circuits, 253–54, 260, 261–62, 339 Intel, 290, 308, 341 Internet, 334, 335, 342 invention, 152–53 discovery vs., 106–7 individual genius vs. collaboration in, 133–35 Jakes, Bill, 212–18, 227, 280, 291–92, 295 Jakes, Mary, 214, 215, 216 James, Frank, 10 James, Jesse, 10 Janelia Farm, 354–55 Jansky, Karl, 106 Japan Prize, 359 Javan, Ali, 256 Jet Propulsion, 203 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 210–11, 214, 215, 325 Jewett, Frank Baldwin, 16–19, 21, 24, 26, 27, 30, 31–33, 36–37, 45, 59, 64, 82, 83, 106, 157, 192, 246, 268, 300, 353, 356 as chairman, 78 Fletcher and, 24 Millikan and, 16–17, 22, 24 Murray Hill complex and, 76–77 transatlantic phone service and, 176 transcontinental phone service and, 21–22 Jobs, Steve, 357 Johns Hopkins University, 14 Johnson, Lyndon B., 223, 247, 248 Kahn, David, 125 Kao, Charles, 258–59, 261 Kappel, Frederick, 219, 220, 223, 231 Kasparov, Garry, 322 Keefauver, Bill, 239 Kelly, Joseph Fennimore, 9–10, 11 Kelly, Katherine, 16, 28, 155 Kelly, Mervin, 2, 3, 9–11, 13, 14, 24, 25, 26, 28–30, 32, 33, 36–38, 40, 41, 44–48, 51, 52, 59–71, 73–74, 78–81, 83, 85, 88, 108, 113–14, 127, 134, 141, 149–62, 163, 165, 169, 170, 172–73, 180, 183–85, 234, 236, 242–46, 249, 253, 266–67, 270–71, 274, 285, 300, 304–7, 311, 339, 342–43, 345–46, 352, 353 amplifier work and, 95–97 as Bell Labs executive vice president, 79, 156 as Bell Labs president, 156, 157 death of, 306–7 early life of, 9–10, 342 gardens of, 155–56, 304 as IBM consultant, 305–6 innovation as viewed by, 151–52, 186, 211, 343, 345, 347 interdisciplinary groups created by, 79–80 lectures about Bell labs given by, 149–52 military work of, 157–62, 307 Millikan and, 16 mobile phones and, 280 Murray Hill complex and, 75–78 Nobel Prize and, 181 Parkinson’s disease of, 306 Pierce and, 195–96, 306–7, 345–46 retirement of, 212, 304–5 Sandia Labs and, 159–60, 271 satellite project and, 210, 211–12, 220, 225 Shockley and, 56, 180–82 transatlantic phone cable and, 176–79 transistor and, 99, 101, 105, 108, 110–13, 180 vacuum tube work of, 33–36, 37, 82, 349 work habits of, 155, 156–57 Kennedy, John F., 224, 247, 248 Kilby, Jack, 251–54, 262 Killian, James, 157, 245 Kim, Jeong, 337–38, 343 Kleiner, Eugene, 181, 346 Kleiner Perkins, 346, 348 Kleinrock, Len, 317, 319 Kogelnik, Herwig, 256–57, 341, 345 Kompfner, Rudi, 198, 199, 201, 207, 210–14, 216, 217, 223, 256–58, 265, 275–77, 323–24, 341 death of, 324 fiber optics and, 259–60, 261, 277 Kwajalein, 293–94 Kyoto Prize, 322 Land, Edwin, 248 Landau, Henry, 190 language, 125–26 lasers, 207, 254–58, 261, 276–79, 341 Lewbel, Arthur, 320 Li, Tingye, 259 light, 275–76 infrared, 254–55 lasers, 207, 254–58, 261, 276–79, 341 optical communications, 256–61; see also fiber optics Lilienthal, David, 160 Lillienfield, Julius, 101 linemen, 49 Lombardo, Guy, 218–19 Long Lines, 25, 173, 269, 301 Los Alamos, 159 Los Angeles Times, 314 Lucent, 335–37, 338, 340, 346 Lucky, Bob, 129, 131, 144, 265, 274, 332, 357, 359 on Baker, 238 Pierce and, 190–91 Macdonald, Stuart, 90, 108, 152 magnetron, 67–69, 70, 71 Maiman, Ted, 255–56 Manhattan Project, 4, 63, 64, 66, 134, 157, 356 Marconi, Guglielmo, 177 masers, 207, 208, 209, 254–55, 359 “Mathematical Theory of Communication, A” (Shannon), 127–32, 133 “Mathematical Theory of Cryptography, A” (Shannon), 124, 125, 131 Mathews, Max, 185–86, 225, 325–26 Mayo, John, 300, 302, 327, 331, 344, 348–50, 353 McCalley, Andrew, 39 McGowan, Bill, 271–72 MCI (Microwave Communications Inc.), 271–74, 299, 328 McMillan, Brock, 127, 132, 133, 136, 138, 156, 211 Mendel, Gregor, 134 messages, see communication and messages Metcalfe, Robert, 264 Microsoft, 341, 353–54 Microwave Communications Inc.

pages: 503 words: 131,064

Liars and Outliers: How Security Holds Society Together by Bruce Schneier


airport security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Brian Krebs, Broken windows theory, carried interest, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, commoditize, corporate governance, crack epidemic, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, desegregation, don't be evil, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Douglas Hofstadter, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, hydraulic fracturing, impulse control, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, iterative process, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Julian Assange, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, Network effects, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, patent troll, phenotype, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Coase, security theater, shareholder value, slashdot, statistical model, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, too big to fail, traffic fines, transaction costs, ultimatum game, UNCLOS, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, Y2K, zero-sum game

Hamilton (1981), “The Evolution of Cooperation,” Science, 211:1390–6. Robert Axelrod (1984), The Evolution of Cooperation, Basic Books. open grazing pasture Garrett Hardin (1968), “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Science, 162:1243–8. Chapter 6 predictably irrational Dan Ariely (2008), Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape our Decisions, Harper Perennial. Cuban Missile Crisis Steven J. Brams (24 Jan 2001), “Game Theory and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Plus Magazine. worst in people Morton Deutsch and Robert M. Krauss (1960), “The Effect of Threat upon Interpersonal Bargaining,” Journal of Abnormal & Normal Social Psychology, 61:181–9. better model Rolf Kümmerli, Caroline Colliard, Nicolas Fiechter, Blaise Petitpierre, Flavien Russier, and Laurent Keller (2007), “Human Cooperation in Social Dilemmas: Comparing the Snowdrift Game with the Prisoner's Dilemma,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 274:2965–70.

(If you don't have a convenient cliff, you can play the game by racing two cars directly at each other; the first person to swerve to avoid the oncoming car is the chicken.) In this game, cooperate–cooperate is the best solution, but cooperate–defect or defect–cooperate is much better than defect–defect. In foreign policy, this is known as brinkmanship, a strategy that almost led to disastrous consequences during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. There have been some fascinating experiments with Chicken that really seem to have brought out the worst in people. (4) For many interactions, the Snowdrift Dilemma is a better model of the real world than the Prisoner's Dilemma. (5) There's also the unfortunately named Battle of the Sexes. He wants to do a stereotypically male thing on Saturday night. She wants to do a stereotypically female thing.

pages: 587 words: 117,894

Cybersecurity: What Everyone Needs to Know by P. W. Singer, Allan Friedman


4chan, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blood diamonds, borderless world, Brian Krebs, business continuity plan, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, drone strike, Edward Snowden, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fault tolerance, global supply chain, Google Earth, Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Khan Academy, M-Pesa, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, packet switching, Peace of Westphalia, pre–internet, profit motive, RAND corporation, ransomware, RFC: Request For Comment, risk tolerance, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, uranium enrichment, We are Anonymous. We are Legion, web application, WikiLeaks, zero day, zero-sum game

Instead, a nuclear arms race would shape the next 50 years of global politics, a time in which over one hundred thousand atomic bombs would be built and the world would almost be destroyed several times over, as during close calls like the Cuban Missile Crisis. While today’s emerging cyber arms races are far from identical to the Cold War, there are still lessons that can be learned from it. Or, to paraphrase Mark Twain, while history may not always repeat itself, “It does rhyme.” One of the most instructive lessons is that the initial periods of a burgeoning arms race are often the most dangerous. These early days have a dark combination. The possessors of the new technology see themselves as having a unique advantage but one that is fleeting, creating a “use it or lose it” mentality. It is also the period in which the technology and its consequences are least understood, especially by senior leaders. In the Cold War, for example, probably the scariest time was not the Cuban Missile Crisis, but the late 1940s and 1950s when the real-world versions of Dr.

For instance, when General Curtis LeMay headed the new Strategic Air Command in the 1950s, he surprised civilian leaders when they finally got around to asking what he planned for American nuclear bomber forces, if there ever were a crisis with the Soviets. LeMay explained that he was not too concerned, because he’d just order a preemptive nuclear attack. “I’m going to knock the s**t out of them before they take off the ground.” It’s a good thing they asked and shut down such plans before the Cuban Missile Crisis just a few years later. Today’s leaders might want to ask if there are any cyber equivalents. Focus: What Is the Chinese Approach to Cyberwar? “The most threatening actor in cyberspace.” So who won this not-so-prized description? Not al-Qaeda. Not the US military’s Cyber Command. Not Facebook’s privacy policy. Not even “RickRolling,” the Internet meme wherein victims are tricked into watching a horribly addictive music video by 1980s singer Rick Astley.

pages: 428 words: 121,717

Warnings by Richard A. Clarke

active measures, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, Bernie Madoff, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, discovery of penicillin, double helix, Elon Musk, failed state, financial thriller, fixed income, Flash crash, forensic accounting, friendly AI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge worker, Maui Hawaii, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, mouse model, Nate Silver, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, Ponzi scheme, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y2K

The Soviets, already looking for a surprise attack, thought the Able Archer exercise was cover for a real attack. They ordered the Red Army to nuclear alert, sending submarines to sea, putting bombers in the air, and fueling missiles. When the NATO exercise ended, the Soviet Union gradually backed down too, but the incident brought the United States and Soviet Union closer to war than they had been since the Cuban Missile Crisis twenty years earlier. Certain tells had been identified by Charlie Allen and his staff to monitor the situation between Iraq and Kuwait. Months before, in January, he ordered his staff to review the Iraqi I&W target list. They refined the list and increased the priority of photographing the key units. He also ensured that the photo interpreters would give greater priority to those images.

The book received widespread attention in the media and, as we later learned, at the highest levels of government in Washington and Moscow. In retrospect it seems inexplicable that almost forty years after the first nuclear weapon was used, after the two superpowers had built tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, that the world’s most powerful nations did not really understand the implications of using them against one another. After all, they had come perilously close to fighting such a war several times, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 being the most famous. Both nations had nuclear-armed missiles on alert, capable of launching at a moment’s notice. On a normal day, the United States had B-52 bombers armed with nuclear weapons flying patrols just outside of Russian airspace, each with predetermined targets, waiting for the “go code.” Despite that massive adoption of nuclear weapons, there were things about them that we didn’t initially understand.

See also Upper Big Branch Mine disaster Cassandra system, 122, 125, 133, 137–38, 140–41 fatality rate, 123–24, 125–28 federal regulations, 124–30, 137–39 federal research program, 124–25 history of, 122–23 institutional refusal and, 137–42 Coastal wetlands, 41, 42–44 Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act (CWPPRA), 43–44 Coding errors, 366–67 Cognitive biases, 34–35, 171–72 heuristics and, 189–91 Cognitive style, 14–15 Cold and the Dark, The: The World after Nuclear War (Sagan, Ehrlich, and Kennedy), 273–74 Cold Start doctrine, 264–65, 267, 270 Cold War, 25–26, 267–68, 271–74, 277–78 Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), 147–48 Columbia University, 237, 238 Coming Plague, The (Garrett), 232 Complexity, and vulnerabilities, 366–67 Complexity Mismatch, 116, 178–79, 215, 299 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), 266 Computers in Crisis (Murray), 193–94 Conference on the Long-Term Worldwide Biological Consequences of Nuclear War (1983), 273 Congressional oversight committees, 355 Consensus science, 172–73 Continuous miners, 131–32 Conventional wisdom, 28, 355 Coplan, Jeremy, 186 Corvette hacks, 297–98 Cosmic Catastrophes (Morrison and Chapman), 302, 303, 304–5, 308–9, 312, 314–15, 319 Cost-benefit analysis, 361–62 Countervalue strike, 275, 278–79 Cowardice, 180 Cox, Jeff, 150 Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event, 307–9 Crichton, Michael, 172–73 Crick, Francis, 328 Crimea, 285 CRISPR, 231–32, 326, 327, 329–49 CRISPR/Cas9, 326, 330–49, 360, 366–67 CRISPR Therapeutics, 333 Critical infrastructure protection (CIP), 287 Critics, 168, 170, 186–88 Crittenden, Gary, 143–44, 156 Crocker, Ryan, 73 Crocker’s Rules, 208–9 Cuban Missile Crisis, 26, 274 Cybersecurity, 283–300 Cynomolgus monkeys, 334–35 Daniel, 2 DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), 210, 382n Darwin, Charles, 325 Data, 36–37, 184 “Decay heat,” 85 Decision makers (the audience), 168, 170, 176–82, 380n false Cassandras and, 191–98 making the same mistakes, 189–91 responses, 358–64 scanning for problems, 354–56 Deep Impact (movie), 313–14 Deep learning, 210, 212 Demon core, 83 Deutsche Bank, 157 Devil’s advocates, 359, 379n DiBartolomeo, Dan, 105–6 Diffusion of responsibility, 176–77, 215, 235, 321, 348 Dinosaurs, 307–9 DiPascali, Frank, 107 Disembodied AI, 207 DNA, 326, 327–28, 336–37 Dole, Bob, 28–29 Dot-com bubble, 147 Doudna, Jennifer, 326–30, 335–36, 338–41, 343, 345, 346–49, 360 Drijfhout, Sybren, 253 Duchenne muscular dystrophy, 332 Duelfer, Charles, 30–31 Eagles, the (band), 305 Earth Institute, 238 Earthquake preparedness, 352–53 Ebola virus, 3, 219–20 Edwards, Edwin, 43 Eemian interglacial, 249, 250 Eggers, Dave, 39 Egypt, 59, 63, 66–67 Ehrlich, Paul, 192–93 Ein-Dor, Tsachi, 13, 186, 380n Einstein, Albert, 185 Eisman, Steve, 149, 152 Electricity Information Sharing and Analysis Center (E-ISAC), 287 Electric Power Research Institute, 286 Electromagnetic pulse (EMP), 274, 352 Embodied AI, 206 EMCON (emissions control), 29–30 Empire State Building, 260 Empirical method, 36, 184, 185 Energy policy, 243–44 Enron, 152 Enthoven, Alain, 361 Epidemic Intelligence Service, 354–55 Epidemic That Never Was, The (Neustadt), 196–97 EQ (emotional quotient), 183 Erasmus Medical Center, 222 Ermarth, Fritz, 27 Erroneous Consensus, 172–73 Ethics of AI growth, 205–6 of gene editing, 334, 339–40, 343 Eugenics, 342, 344 Evolution, 329–33 Expert Political Judgment (Tetlock), 13–15 Explainable AI, 210 Fairfield Greenwich Group, 108, 113 Fallujah, 68, 69 False Cassandras, 191–98 Famines, 192 Farmington Mine disaster, 127–28 Farson, Richard, 175 “Fast-failure” review, 357 Fatalism, 2 Fate of the States (Whitney), 153 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 8, 100, 112, 115 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), 160 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 40, 46–48, 51, 53–54, 323–24 Hurricane Pam exercise, 40, 47–49 Federal Reserve Bank, 159 Feedback loops, 16, 192–93 Fermi, Enrico, 373n Feynman, Richard, 240 Figueres, Christiana, 247 Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, 162 Financial crisis of 2008, 143–65 Madoff fraud and SEC, 118–19 primary cause of, 147–48 Whitney and, 143–46, 148–50, 156–60 Flash Crash of 2010, 211 Fletcher, Charles, 256–57 Flood Control Act of 1928, 42 Flood Control Act of 1965, 46 Flu pandemic of 1918, 195, 198, 217, 221–24 Flu pandemic of 2009, 217–18, 221–22 Forbes, 154 Ford, Gerald, 196–97 Ford, Robert, 57–74 aid to Syrian opposition, 62–63, 64–65 ambassadorship in Egypt, 67 ambassadorship in Syria, 57–58 departure from Syria, 60–62 warning and prediction of, 64–74 Foreign Service, U.S., 57, 58, 67 Fortune, 146, 148–49, 161 Fossil fuels, 16, 42, 257–58.

pages: 801 words: 242,104

Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond


clean water, colonial rule, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, Donner party, European colonialism, Exxon Valdez, illegal immigration, job satisfaction, means of production, new economy, North Sea oil, Piper Alpha, polynesian navigation, profit motive, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, Stewart Brand, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transcontinental railway, unemployed young men

In early 1961 they fell into poor group decision-making practices that led to their disastrous decision to launch the Bay of Pigs invasion, which failed ignominiously, leading to the much more dangerous Cuban Missile Crisis. As Irving Janis pointed out in his book Groupthink, the Bay of Pigs deliberations exhibited numerous characteristics that tend to lead to bad decisions, such as a premature sense of ostensible unanimity, suppression of personal doubts and of expression of contrary views, and the group leader (Kennedy) guiding the discussion in such a way as to minimize disagreement. The subsequent Cuban Missile Crisis deliberations, again involving Kennedy and many of the same advisors, avoided those characteristics and instead proceeded along lines associated with productive decision-making, such as Kennedy ordering participants to think skeptically, allowing discussion to be freewheeling, having subgroups meet separately, and occasionally leaving the room to avoid his overly influencing the discussion himself.

Irving Janis, Groupthink (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1983, revised 2nd ed.) explores the subtle group dynamics that contributed to the success or failure of deliberations involving recent American presidents and their advisors. Janis’s case studies are of the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, the American army’s crossing of the 38th parallel in Korea in 1950, American’s non-preparation for Japan’s 1941 Pearl Harbor attack, America’s escalation of the Vietnam War from 1964 to 1967, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and America’s adoption of the Marshall Plan in 1947. Garrett Hardin’s classic and often-cited article “The tragedy of the commons” appeared in Science 162:1243-1248 (1968). Mancur Olson applies the metaphor of stationary bandits and roving bandits to Chinese warlords and other extractive agents in “Dictatorship, democracy, and development” (American Political Science Review 87:567-576 (1993)).

Tikopia and tragedy of the commons Bougainville copper mine BP (British Petroleum) Buffalo Creek, West Virginia Burundi: genocide in independence of business, see big business Cahokia, collapse of Canada: Franklin Expedition in Inuit in logging in Native Americans in settlements of Canela y Lázaro, Miguel cannibalism: of Anasazi anthropologists’ objections to of Donner Party on Easter Island in Leningrad siege on Mangareva on Pitcairn and warfare carbon isotope analyses carbon sink Carson, Rachel Catherwood, Frederick CFCs, harmful effects of Chardón, Carlos chemical industry chestnut blight Chevron Corporation Chevron Niugini Chevron Texaco Chicago Zoological Society Chile: and Easter Island fishing in mining in wine palm of wood imports from China agriculture climate change in conquering Nature in Cultural Revolution in cultural values of deforestation in development projects in economic growth of emigration from environmental problems of First World goals of food in foreign investment in geography of global connectedness of Grain-to-Green program grassland in Great Leap Forward in health problems in land ownership in map natural disasters in Olympic Games in per-capita environmental impact of political unity in population control in population of shifting environmental thinking in species diversity in top-down decision-making in trade with warlords in water diversion project in western, development of chlorofluorocarbons Christianity, exclusivity of chronic wasting disease (CWD) Churchill, Winston Clark Fork River Superfund site Clean Water Act Clearcut Controversy (Montana) climate change and forest fires in global warming in tree ring studies and water levels Club of Rome coal mining collapse: comparative method of study of complex societies in five-point framework of past vs. modern societies and power cycling use of term Colorado, mining in Colorado River, diversion of Columbus, Christopher comparative studies consumer influence Cook, Capt. James Cook, John coral reefs Cortés, Hernán Cristino, Claudio Cuba Cuban Missile Crisis Daly, Marcus dams Däniken, Erich von Davis, John decision-making, see group decision-making deforestation and agriculture in Australia in China clear-cutting comparative studies of consequences for society and drought of Easter Island and erosion exporting to other nations and extinction of forests government regulation of of Japan and leased logging rights long-term thinking in in Maya sites in Montana of New Guinea in Norse Greenland social licence to operate in in Southwestern U.S.

pages: 719 words: 209,224

The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy by David Hoffman


active measures, anti-communist, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, failed state, joint-stock company, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Silicon Valley, Stanislav Petrov, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, zero-sum game

They felt the threat of a single, enormous nuclear strike did not fit the more fragmented and complex competition they faced with the Soviet Union as tensions flared first over Berlin and then over Cuba. When the war plan was revised in the spring and summer of 1962, the new plan gave the president more flexibility and choices in waging a possible nuclear attack, including the ability to hold back forces in reserve, to avoid population centers and industry and to leave out some countries as targets. A key feature of the new plan, put into effect just before the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962, was to aim largely at Soviet weapons, and not at cities and industry, an idea known as counterforce. If one thinks of cocked pistols aimed at each other, counterforce was an effort to shoot the gun out of the hand of the enemy. 6 It seemed to be more humane to aim at missiles rather than cities, but counterforce also raised deeply disturbing questions. Could it make the use of nuclear weapons more tempting, since it implied a limited nuclear strike was possible?

The problem of using scissors was considered serious enough that experts were asked to come up with a new method. "The packet was constructed with a pull-string, on which an operator could tug to immediately open it up," Yarynich recalled. The whole system was slow and cumbersome. Monolit had another, more serious shortcoming. The orders could not be recalled--there was no way to cancel.7 In late October 1962, during the Cuban missile crisis, Yarynich was sent as a communications officer to supervise at a rocket division near Nizhny Tagil, 860 miles east of Moscow in Siberia. At the peak of the confrontation, the crews received an unmistakable signal through the Monolit system. The code word was "BRONTOZAVR." The word was a signal: switch the command system from peacetime to combat alert status. A telegraph typed it out, and Yarynich took the paper tape from one of the young women who served as operators.

The Pioneers were the newest Soviet missile, the best technology, with twenty or thirty years of useful service duty ahead of them--and all those involved were appalled at the idea of sacrificing them. Katayev recalled one particularly emotional meeting in 1985 when the idea of reducing the missile arsenal was debated. There were shouts of protest: "Sabotage!" and "The Fifth Column!" and "Remember Khrushchev!" (for the Cuban missile crisis fiasco). "I tried in vain to defuse the emotions with the help of technical arguments in favor of reducing the number of missiles," Katayev recalled. After the stormy meeting, he remained in the conference room with one of Akhromeyev's deputies. Katayev attempted in earnest to argue his point. "Unbeknownst to everybody," Katayev told the deputy, "the time has arrived when the accumulation of nuclear weapons has outgrown its own level of safety and when it reached the zone where both our own nuclear weapons and those of the Americans have turned from being a means of deterrence into an instrument of increased danger.

pages: 564 words: 182,946

The Berlin Wall: A World Divided, 1961-1989 by Frederick Taylor


anti-communist, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, German hyperinflation, land reform, mass immigration, mutually assured destruction, oil shock, open borders, Plutocrats, plutocrats, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Sinatra Doctrine, the market place, young professional, éminence grise

Only if the ‘enemy’ agreed to respect totally the integrity of the GDR’s borders should this concession be extended. After one final Christmas agreement (1966), the concession was not renewed. It would be years before West Berliners could once again visit the East—as part of a more general settlement which went a long way to granting the Communist regime the recognition it craved.2 During the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, almost everyone had expected the Soviets to apply extra pressure via Berlin. The Americans had, after all, demanded the right to board and inspect Soviet missiles bound for Cuba. There had been anxiety that the Soviets would respond with a similar move against Allied traffic going into Berlin. This would have amounted to an effective blockade and put the West in a difficult position.3 The failure of Khrushchev to make such a move against Berlin, or anywhere else in the world where American interests were vulnerable, 336 / THE BERLIN WALL helped President Kennedy and his advisers to pull off a considerable victory over Cuba.

The inherently abnormal border situation had become, in effect, ‘normal’-proof, if anyone needs it, that people will get used to just about anything over time. The kind of polarised antiCommunist attitudes that had been general in West Berlin at the beginning of the 1960s had given way, for much of the population-including the political and media élite-at best to a more nuanced view of the Cold War, at worst to a bite-the-hand-that-feeds anti-Americanism. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the main theatre of the Cold War did not switch back to Europe. Despite crablike progress towards a halftolerable status quo in Berlin during the rest of the decade, and the usual East-West name-calling, at no point did the city become a potential flashpoint for the Third World War as it had been between 1948 and 1963. ‘ICH BIN EIN BERLINER’ / 337 President Kennedy’s famous visit to Berlin in June 1963 represented a high-water mark in West Berlin’s self-conscious status as a beacon of freedom.

., 99, 171, 216; sworn in as president, 112; background and rise to power, 112-14; and ’missile gap’, 113, 116; and Khrushchev, 115, 121 summit with Khrushchev, 127-9, 131, 138, 208-9 television address, 131-4, 144-5, 148, 152, 209; and border closure, 145-6, 148, 152; ill health, 203; response to border closure, 145-6, 148, 152; irritation with Brandt, 219; Brandt’s letter to, 221-2, 226-8; reply to Brandt, 228-34, 244, 246-8; letter to Khrushchev, 277; and Checkpoint Charlie confrontation, 284-7; and Peter Fechter killing, 320-1; and Cuban Missile Crisis. 336; Berlin visit, 337-42; ’jelly donut’ story, 340-1; assassination, 341 Kennedy, Joseph, 112 INDEX / 511 Kennedy, Robert, 112, 114, 205, 223-4, 229; and Bolshakov channel, 284-5; and Berlin visit, 337; promotes cultural-exchange programme, 355 Kessler, General, 431, 441 Keutschen, 370 KGB, 149, 195, 198, 215, 291 Khrushchev, Leonid, 454 Khrushchev, Nikita, 81, 356, 403, 413, 417; denunciations of Stalin, 100, 103, 275, 281-2, 346; appoints Gomulka, 101; support for Ulbricht, 102, 105, 118; and rocketry and nuclear weapons, 102-3, 113, 116-18, 120-1, 134-5; declaration on prosperity, 103, 386; mocked by Stalin, 103, 117; provokes Berlin Crisis, 103-5; and Kennedy; and Ulbricht’s Berlin policy, 117, 122, 126-7, 137-8; relations with China, 118, 275-6, 287; relationship with Ulbricht, 119-20; stations missiles in GDR, 120; modest personal status, 123; summit with Kennedy, 127-9, 131, 138; and Kennedy’s television address, 132, 134; meeting with McCloy, 134-5; and border closure, 137, 139-41, 145-6, 148-9, 154, 158, 174; intentions over Berlin, 205-6, 211, 220, 224, 226, 251-2, 254, 269, 274, 288; intentions over GDR, 268, 271, 276-7, 286-8; and XXII.

Understanding Power by Noam Chomsky


anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Burning Man, business climate, cognitive dissonance, continuous integration, Corn Laws, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, global reserve currency, Howard Zinn, labour market flexibility, liberation theology, Mahatma Gandhi, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage tax deduction, Paul Samuelson, Ralph Nader, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, school choice, strikebreaker, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, union organizing, wage slave, women in the workforce

It may still be going on today (we usually find out about these things a few years later), but it certainly went on through the 1970s. 23 Actually, let me just tell you one piece of it that was revealed about a year ago. It turns out that Operation MONGOOSE practically blew up the world. I don’t know how many of you have been following the new material that’s been released on the Cuban Missile Crisis [1962 U.S.-Soviet showdown over Soviet missiles in Cuba], but it’s very interesting. There have been meetings with the Russians, now there are some with the Cubans, and a lot of material has come out under the Freedom of Information Act here. And there’s a very different picture of the Cuban Missile Crisis emerging. One thing that’s been discovered is that the Russians and the Cubans had separate agendas during the course of the Crisis. See, the standard view is that the Cubans were just Russian puppets. Well, that’s not true, nothing like that is ever true—it may be convenient to believe, but it’s never true.

That wasn’t even reported in the United States when the information was released about a year ago, it was considered so insignificant. The only two places where you can find it reported are in a footnote, on another topic actually, in one of these national security journals, International Security, and also in a pretty interesting book by one of the top State Department intelligence specialists, Raymond Garthoff, who’s a sensible guy. He has a book called Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis, and he brings in some of this material. 27 Actually, other things have been revealed about the Crisis which are absolutely startling. For instance, it turns out that the head of the U.S. Air Force at the time, General Thomas Power, without consultation with the government—in fact, without even informing the government—raised the level of American national security alert to the second highest level [on October 24, 1962].

In fact, throughout this whole period the Russians were very passive, they never reacted much—because they were scared. The fact is, the United States had an enormous preponderance of military force. I mean, the U.S. military thought there was no real problem: they wanted a war, because they figured we’d just wipe the Russians out. 29 WOMAN: But are you saying that the U.S. intentionally created the Cuban Missile Crisis? Well, I’m not quite saying that. These are things that happened in the course of the Crisis—how we got to it is a little different. It came about when the Russians put missiles on Cuba and the United States observed that missiles were going in and didn’t want to allow them there. But of course, there’s a background, as there always is to everything, and part of the background is that the United States was planning to invade Cuba at the time, and the Russians knew it, and the Cubans knew it.

pages: 268 words: 112,708

Culture works: the political economy of culture by Richard Maxwell


1960s counterculture, AltaVista, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, big-box store, business process, commoditize, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Howard Rheingold, income inequality, informal economy, intermodal, late capitalism, Marshall McLuhan, medical malpractice, Network effects, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, refrigerator car, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, structural adjustment programs, talking drums, telemarketer, the built environment, Thorstein Veblen, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban renewal, Victor Gruen, Whole Earth Catalog, women in the workforce

Even after Abstract Expressionism had been superseded by later movements such as pop and op art, the avant-garde and the discourse that surrounded it continued to be useful to government, corporate, and art-world institutions interested in promoting any number of freedoms, including freedom from totalitarianism, individual freedom, artistic freedom, freedom of expression, freedom of speech, freedom to consume, freedom from government regulation—even international free trade. 30 Art Corporate Patronage in the 1960s and the 11 Pop Artists Portfolios Far from subsiding, Cold War tensions escalated after the 1950s, with the need for cultural symbols of American freedom and superiority continuing to be a priority well into the 1960s and beyond. The Cuban Revolution in 1959 was soon followed by the Bay of Pigs fiasco, the construction of the Berlin Wall, the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1964 detonation of an atom bomb in China, and the Tonkin Gulf Resolution. Along with these developments came growing anxieties within government and corporate communities about the spread of communism and about the potential loss of U.S. foreign markets and capital investments. Indeed, it is the pervasiveness of corporate ideology in the discourse of arts patronage and cultural policy during the 1960s that is so striking.

See also Commodification; Commoditization Commodification, 73, 148, 197, 210–18, 242 Commoditization, 113 Companhia do Pagôde, 113–14 Computers, 2, 123–25, 185, 198–207, 216–18, 243; cost of, 199; environmental costs, 202; software industry, 238 Conglomerates, 178, 181, 183, 226, 231–32 Consumer movement, 84, 90–96, 100, 187 Consumers Union, 90 Cookies, 216 Copyright term extension, 234 Corporate welfare, 171–72, 176 Corporation and the Arts, The, 33 Corporation for Public Broadcasting, 182 Crane, Philip, 46 Cuban Missile Crisis, 31 254 Cultural industries, 2, 6, 134–35, 228–31, 242–43 Cultural policy, 7–9, 16–20, 24, 28–32, 39–43, 60, 64, 118, 171–72, 175, 187–91, 218–20, 240–45 Culture: definitions, 1–4 Curtin, Michael, and Thomas Streeter, 225–49 D’Acci, Julie, 245 Dança da Garrafa, 111–13 Dança do Robó, 111 Davis, Susan G., 163–96 Debartolo Group, 178 De/Cipherin’, 17, 108–28 DeGeneres, Ellen, 232, 238 Deindustrialization, 171, 190, 235, 215 Democracy, 25, 27, 33, 35–38, 45, 47, 93, 98, 102, 170, 174 De Montebello, Philippe, 48 Deregulation, 141, 231 Diaper fallacy, 243 Dine, Jim, 31, 37, 39 Disney, 136, 140, 145, 181–82, 210, 212–15, 233; Club Disney, 181–82; Disney Store, 182; Disney Store Online, 212 Dissent, 28, 49, 170, 226 Diversity, 79, 175, 219, 225–28, 244 Do-it-yourself: the metaphysic of, 13–16 Dominican Republic, 176 Dondero, George A., 28 Drum talk, 121–22 East Asia, 3 Ebersol, Dick, president of NBC sports, 147; and feminization of TV sport, 147–53 Economics, neoclassical, 202 Edge, 228–31, 243 Education, 18, 23, 34, 90, 131, 202–3, 211; corporate influence, 94 Eells, Richard, 32–41 Eisner, Michael, 140 Electronics, 2, 3, 9, 14 11 Pop Artists, 31–40 El Salvador, 175 Emerson Electric Co.: interlock with Anheuser-Busch, 64 Enchantment, 2–3, 13, 15.

pages: 422 words: 104,457

Dragnet Nation: A Quest for Privacy, Security, and Freedom in a World of Relentless Surveillance by Julia Angwin


AltaVista, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, bitcoin, Chelsea Manning, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, clean water, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, data is the new oil, David Graeber, Debian, Edward Snowden, Filter Bubble, Firefox, GnuPG, Google Chrome, Google Glasses, informal economy, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, market design, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, prediction markets, price discrimination, randomized controlled trial, RFID, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, security theater, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart meter, Steven Levy, Upton Sinclair, WikiLeaks, Y2K, zero-sum game, Zimmermann PGP

the United States successfully launched photoreconnaissance: Corona Fact Sheet, National Reconnaissance Office, accessed July 19, 2013, The images captured by the satellite: Dwayne A. Day, “Of Myths and Missiles: The Truth About John F. Kennedy and the Missile Gap,” Space Review, January 3, 2006, in 1961, the Soviets had just four: John T. Correll, “Airpower and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Air Force Magazine 88, no. 8 (August 2005), In 1972, the United States and the Soviet Union: Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems, U.S.-U.S.S.R., May 26, 1972, 23 U.S.T. 3435, Six years later, President Jimmy Carter: Jimmy Carter, “Remarks at the Congressional Space Medal of Honor Awards Ceremony,” Kennedy Space Center, Florida, October 1, 1978, Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents 14, no. 40 (October 9, 1978): 1671–1727,

See also e-mail; IP address; passwords; Web browsers; websites; and specific companies, services, and software compartmentalization and encryption and malicious software and passwords and terrorism and threat models and ConvergeTrack cookies copyrights CoreLogic Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) court orders court records credit cards disposable number fake identity and credit reports credit score crime Crimes Against Children Research Center criminal records CryptoParty handbook Cuban missile crisis Cukier, Kenneth culture of fear customized content Cuyahoga River cyber-espionage companies cyber-stalking Cypherpunks Cypherpunk’s Manifesto, A (Hughes) Dandia, Asad dark data cycles data auctions data audit credit scoring and data brokers and fake identity and Freestylers and government and travel and data brokers auditing your data on government and health insurers and opt-outs and regulation of data exchanges Dataium service Data Liberation Front Datalogix DataLossDB website data pollution strategy data-scoring business data storage dating profiles Davis, Ed Debt (Graeber) Defense Department DeleteMe Democratic Party Demographics Inc.

pages: 318 words: 87,570

Broken Markets: How High Frequency Trading and Predatory Practices on Wall Street Are Destroying Investor Confidence and Your Portfolio by Sal Arnuk, Joseph Saluzzi


algorithmic trading, automated trading system, Bernie Madoff, buttonwood tree, commoditize, computerized trading, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, financial innovation, Flash crash, Gordon Gekko, High speed trading, latency arbitrage, locking in a profit, Mark Zuckerberg, market fragmentation, Ponzi scheme, price discovery process, price mechanism, price stability, Sergey Aleynikov, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Small Order Execution System, statistical arbitrage, transaction costs, two-sided market, zero-sum game

Historians will judge how dangerous and disruptive the current financial crisis is compared to the Great Depression, and the story is not over, but despite the tremendous pain caused by the financial crisis, it seems difficult to draw an equivalence between today’s 9% unemployment rate and the Great Depression’s 25% rate, or between today’s hundreds of failed but insured banks and the thousands of failed and uninsured banks back then. It also seems willfully illiterate to ignore the many crises since the Great Depression when the market was not as volatile as it was in 2008. It wasn’t as volatile during the Vietnam War, or the Cuban Missile Crisis, or the Korean War, or World War II, or the Berlin Crisis, or after 9/11, and more, a series of events that plainly included serious risks to life on Earth itself. The market in the 1930s was also tiny compared to modern-day markets. In the 1930s, average daily volume per stock was less than 2,000 shares a day, making it easy to knock prices around. Today, average daily volume per stock is about a million shares, 500 times more.

In the meantime, market volatility is still extreme. Within one week in August 2011, the Dow Jones Industrials Average went up or down by 400 points four days in a row, something it had never done before, ever. Crain’s New York called it the “wildest week on record,” and this after at least some of the SEC’s fixes were already implemented. As a point of comparison, President Kennedy first told the nation about the Cuban Missile Crisis on the evening of October 22, 1962, and warned the entire world was at “the abyss of destruction.” The next day the front page of The New York Times screamed “Kennedy Ready for Soviet Showdown.” The stock market’s reaction? The Dow Jones Industrials Average fell about 200 points, after adjusting for different baselines between 1962 and 2011. It may well be that Standard and Poor’s downgrade of U.S. debt from AAA to AA+, which kicked off that wild week in August, was a greater cataclysm than imminent all-out nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union, but it’s difficult to believe.

pages: 394 words: 108,215

What the Dormouse Said: How the Sixties Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry by John Markoff


Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Apple II, back-to-the-land, beat the dealer, Bill Duvall, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Buckminster Fuller, California gold rush, card file, computer age, computer vision, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Donald Knuth, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, Edward Thorp, El Camino Real, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, general-purpose programming language, Golden Gate Park, Hacker Ethic, hypertext link, informal economy, information retrieval, invention of the printing press, Jeff Rulifson, John Markoff, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Mahatma Gandhi, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Paul Terrell, popular electronics, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, Robert X Cringely, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South of Market, San Francisco, speech recognition, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, union organizing, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight

A tiny peace movement had recently sprung up on American college campuses, led by groups such as the National Committee for a SANE Nuclear Policy, Peacemakers, Turn Toward Peace, and the Student Peace Union, as well as dozens of small newsletters, magazines, and dissident journals. Moore became active in the Committee for Non-Violent Action, one of the first American peace organizations to focus on civil disobedience. In the aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis, he participated in the racially integrated Quebec-Washington-Guantánamo Walk for Peace. The walk began in 1963 in Quebec with groups from other cities expanding its numbers. In Atlanta, some of the marchers were beaten and jailed, and civil rights became a significant issue. Once again, Moore made it only as far as Florida; because of a U.S. ban on travel to Cuba, the marchers stopped in Miami.

He was responsible for the esoteric radio equipment that was used to plot the trajectories of missiles in the atmosphere. Because Allison’s expertise was in radio physics, he wound up with a night job, since most of the missiles were fired at 3:00 A.M., when they were least likely to disturb civilians. For the most part, the work was highly technical and uneventful. There was, however, the evening of the third day of the Cuban missile crisis, when other military radars tracked one of the experimental launches, and planes were scrambled from a nearby air force base. The launches were temporarily put on hold. When Allison came back to the West Coast, he initially spent time working for the classified side of SRI, but soon, like many others, he became more intrigued with computing. The classified division had a growing need for computing power, and it had a second SDS-940 machine, similar to the one used by Engelbart’s group, to which Allison had ready access.

pages: 370 words: 97,138

Beyond: Our Future in Space by Chris Impey


3D printing, Admiral Zheng, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Berlin Wall, Buckminster Fuller, butterfly effect, California gold rush, carbon-based life, Colonization of Mars, cosmic abundance, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, discovery of DNA, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Eratosthenes, Haight Ashbury, Hyperloop, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, life extension, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mars Rover, mutually assured destruction, Oculus Rift, operation paperclip, out of africa, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, phenotype, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Rubik’s Cube, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Searching for Interstellar Communications, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, Skype, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, supervolcano, technological singularity, telepresence, telerobotics, the medium is the message, the scientific method, theory of mind, There's no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home - Ken Olsen, V2 rocket, wikimedia commons, X Prize, Yogi Berra

Gemini spacecraft carried two astronauts and the missions tested docking technology, practiced working outside a spacecraft, and orbited long enough to mimic a trip to the Moon and back. All the early Apollo crews were veterans of the Mercury and Gemini programs. America was hopeful that the two superpowers might collaborate rather than duplicate the vast effort required for a race to the Moon. After stepping back from the brink following the Cuban missile crisis, Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev had developed a mutual understanding. In 1963, in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Kennedy proposed a joint space effort. Khrushchev initially rejected the overture but was poised to accept it when Kennedy was assassinated in November 1963. Even Kennedy was hedging his bets, though, wavering between cooperation and competition.

., 149–50, 164, 185, 201, 252 climate change, 197–98, 286 Clinton, Bill, 154 cloning, 251 Clynes, Manfred, 205 Cocconi, Giuseppe, 187 Colbert, Stephen, 74, 117 Cold War, 35–39, 41–43, 50, 55, 73, 76, 139, 145, 197 Columbia, disintegration of, 55, 56, 107 Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report, 107 Columbus, Christopher, 243 comets, 183 Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS), 275 Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 145 communication: with alien species, 52, 189, 234–35, 238, 239, 246, 253, 255, 259 by digital data transmission, 66–67, 77–80 latency and, 178 space technology in, 153–54 Compaq, 95 computation, future technology of, 258–62 confinement, psychological impact of, 169–70 Congress, US: legislation in, 78, 144 on space programs, 38, 41, 75, 156, 158 consciousness, simulation of, 259–61 conservation biology, 201 conspiracy theories, 238, 240 Constellation program, 104 Contact (film), 236–37, 242 Contact (Sagan), 236 contraception, 200 Copernicus, 19, 20, 127 Coriolis force, Coriolis effect, 152 cosmic rays, 115, 160, 160, 164, 167, 168, 204 cosmism, 27 cosmonauts, 141 disasters of, 108 records set by, 115 selection criteria for, 74 Cosmos 1, 184 cosmos, cosmology, ancient concepts of, 17–20 Cosmos Studios, 184 Cosmotheoros (Huygens), 163 counterfactual thinking, 14 Cronkite, Walter, 74 cryogenic suspension, 250–51 cryptobiosis, 123 cryptography, 231, 291 Cuban missile crisis, 41–42 CubeSat, 184–85 Cultural Revolution, Chinese, 141–42 Curiosity rover, 165, 167, 176, 181 cybernetics, 206–7 Cyborg Foundation, 288 cyborgs (cybernetic organisms), 204–8, 288 Cygnus capsule, 100 cytosine, 6 dark energy, 256 d’Arlandes, Marquis, 68 DARPANET, 78 Darwin, Charles, 265 “Darwin” (machine), 227 Death Valley, 118–19 deceleration, 222, 223 DeepSea Challenger sub, 120 deep space, 126–29 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), 78, 224 Defense Department, US, 38, 78, 90, 153 De Garis, Hugo, 258 Delta rockets, 72, 113 Delta-V, 111 Democritus, 19 Destination Mir (reality show), 75 Diamandis, Peter, 90–94, 97–98, 147, 156 diamonds, 131, 231 Dick, Philip K., 204–5 Digital Equipment Corporation, 213 DNA, 6–7, 9, 19, 189, 202, 228, 251, 263, 265, 266 Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep (Dick), 205 dogs: brains of, 13 in scientific research, 251 in space travel, 40, 47 Dolly (sheep), 251 Doomsday Clock, 197–98, 246, 286 dopamine, 10, 98 Doppler method, exoplanet detection and characterization by, 127, 128, 129, 130, 133, 215 Doppler shift, 127 Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp, 33 Downey, Robert, Jr., 95 drag, in flight, 68, 83, 223 Drake, Frank, 187–88, 235, 237 Drake equation, 188, 189, 233–35, 237, 241, 243, 244, 253, 291–92 DRD4 alleles, 7R mutation in, 10–12, 11, 15, 98 Drexler, Eric, 226 drones, 180–81 Druyan, Ann, 184 Duke, Charles, 45 Dunn, Tony, 225 Dyson, Freeman, 226–27, 253 Dyson sphere, 253–54, 254 Earth: atmosphere of, 8, 70–71, 70 early impacts on, 50, 172 geological evolution of, 172 as one of many worlds, 17–20 planets similar to, 122, 124–26, 129–33, 224, 235 projected demise of, 197–98 as round, 19 as suited for human habitation, 118–22, 121, 234 as viewed from space, 45, 53, 121, 185, 270 Earth Return Vehicle, 169 “Earthrise” (Anders), 270 Earth similarity index, 215–16 eBay, 79, 95 Economist, The, 105 ecosystem, sealed and self-contained, 192–97, 193, 285 Eiffel Tower, 27, 149 Einstein, Albert, 220, 228, 256 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 36–39, 73, 79 electric cars, 96 electric solar sails, 186 electromagnetic waves, 186 e-mail, 78 embryo transport, 251 Enceladus, 177, 182, 227 potential habitability of, 125, 278 Encyclopædia Britannica, 95, 283 Endangered Species Act (1973), 201 energy: aliens’ use of, 190 civilizations characterized by use of, 252–57, 254, 258 dark, 256 declining growth in world consumption of, 257 Einstein’s equation for, 220 production and efficiency of, 219–24, 220 as requirement for life, 123–24 in rocket equation, 110 Engines of Creation (Drexler), 226 environmental disasters, 245 environmental protection: as applied to space, 147 movement for, 45, 235, 263, 270 Epicureans, 18 Epsilon Eridani, 187 Eratosthenes, 19 ethane, 52, 125 Ethernet, 213 eukaryotes, 172 Euripides, 18 Europa, 52, 97–98 potential habitability of, 125, 125, 161, 278 Europa Clipper mission, 98 Europe: economic depression in, 28 population dispersion into, 7–8, 11, 15 roots of technological development in, 23–24 European Southern Observatory, 133 European Space Agency, 159, 178–79 European Union, bureaucracy of, 106 Eustace, Alan, 120, 272 Evenki people, 119–20 Everest, Mount, 120 evolution: genetic variation in, 6, 203, 265 geological, 172 of human beings, 16–17 off-Earth, 203–4 evolutionary divergence, 201–4 exoplanets: Earth-like, 129–33, 215–18 extreme, 131–32 formation of, 215, 216 incidence and detection of, 126–33, 128, 233 exploration: as basic urge of human nature, 7–12, 109, 218, 261–63 imagination and, 262–63 explorer gene, 86 Explorer I, 38 explosives, early Chinese, 21–23 extinction, 201–2 extraterrestrials, see aliens, extraterrestrial extra-vehicular activities, 179 extremophiles, 122–23 eyeborg, 205–6 Falcon Heavy rocket, 114 Falcon rockets, 96, 97, 101, 184 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), 82, 93, 105–7, 154 Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, 272 Felix and Félicette (cats), 48–49 Fermi, Enrico, 239–41 Fermilab, 254 “Fermi question,” 240–41, 243 Feynman, Richard, 179–80, 230, 270, 280 F4 Phantom jet fighter, 82 51 Peg (star), 126, 133 55 Cancri (star), 131 F-117 Nighthawk, 69 fine-tuning, 256, 294 fire arrows, 23, 68 fireworks, 21–24, 31 flagella, 180 flight: first human, 68 first powered, 69 principles of, 67–73 stability in, 82–83 “Fly Me to the Moon,” 45 food: energy produced by, 219, 220 in sealed ecosystem, 194–95 for space travel, 115–16, 159, 170 Forward, Robert, 223 Foundation series (Asimov), 94 founder effect, 202–3 Fountains of Paradise, The (Clarke), 149 France, 48, 68, 90 Frankenstein monster, 206, 259 Fresnel lens, 223 From Earth to the Moon (Verne), 183 fuel-to-payload ratio, see rocket equation Fukuyama, Francis, 207 Fuller, Buckminster, 151, 192 fullerenes, 151 Futron corporation, 155 Future of Humanity Institute, 245 “futurology,” 248–52, 249 Fyodorov, Nikolai, 26, 27 Gagarin, Yuri, 40–41, 41, 66, 269 Gaia hypothesis, 286 galaxies: incidence and detection of, 235 number of, 255 see also Milky Way galaxy Galileo, 49–50, 183, 270 Gandhi, Mahatma, 147 Garn, Jake, 114 Garn scale, 114 Garriott, Richard, 92 gas-giant planets, 125, 126–29 Gauss, Karl Friedrich, 238 Gazenko, Oleg, 47 Gemini program, 42 Genesis, Book of, 148–49 genetic anthropology, 6 genetic code, 5–7, 123 genetic diversity, 201–3 genetic drift, 203 genetic engineering, 245, 249 genetic markers, 6–7 genetics, human, 6–7, 9–12, 120, 201–4 Genographic Project, 7, 265 genome sequencing, 93, 202, 292 genotype, 6 “adventure,” 11–12, 98 geocentrism, 17, 19–20, 49 geodesic domes, 192 geological evolution, 172 George III, king of England, 147 German Aerospace Center, 178 Germany, Germans, 202, 238 rocket development by, 28, 30–34, 141 in World War II, 30–35 g-forces, 46–49, 48, 89, 111, 114 GJ 504b (exoplanet), 131 GJ 1214b (exoplanet), 132 glaciation, 172 Glenn Research Center, 219 global communications industry, 153–54 Global Positioning System (GPS), 144, 153–54 God, human beings in special relationship with, 20 Goddard, Robert, 28–32, 29, 36, 76, 78, 81–82, 94, 268 Goddard Space Flight Center, 178 gods, 20 divine intervention of, 18 Golden Fleece awards, 238 Goldilocks zone, 122, 126, 131 Gonzalez, Antonin, 215 Goodall, Jane, 14 Google, 80, 92, 185, 272, 275 Lunar X Prize, 161 Gopnik, Alison, 10, 13 Grasshopper, 101 gravity: centrifugal force in, 26, 114, 150 in flight, 68 of Mars, 181, 203 Newton’s theory of, 25, 267 and orbits, 25, 114–15, 127, 128, 149–50, 267 in rocket equation, 110 of Sun, 183 waves, 255 see also g-forces; zero gravity Gravity, 176 gravity, Earth’s: first object to leave, 40, 51 human beings who left, 45 as obstacle for space travel, 21, 105, 148 as perfect for human beings, 118 simulation of, 168–69 Great Art of Artillery, The (Siemienowicz), 267 Great Britain, 86, 106, 206, 227 “Great Filter,” 244–47 Great Leap Forward, 15–16 “Great Silence, The,” of SETI, 236–39, 240–41, 243–44 Greece, ancient, 17–19, 163 greenhouse effect, 171, 173 greenhouse gasses, 132, 278 Griffin, Michael, 57, 147, 285–86 grinders (biohackers), 207 Grissom, Gus, 43 guanine, 6 Guggenheim, Daniel, 81, 268 Guggenheim, Harry, 81 Guggenheim Foundation, 30, 81–82, 268 gunpowder, 21–24, 267 Guth, Alan, 257 habitable zone, 122, 124–26, 130–31, 132, 188, 241, 246, 277–78, 286, 291 defined, 124 Hadfield, Chris, 142 hair, Aboriginal, 8 “Halfway to Pluto” (Pettit), 273 Hanson, Robin, 247 haptic technology, 178 Harbisson, Neil, 205, 288 Harvard Medical School, 90 Hawking, Stephen, 88, 93, 198, 259 HD 10180 (star), 127 Heinlein, Robert, 177 Heisenberg compensator, 229 Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, 229–30 heliocentrism, 19 helium, 68 helium 3, 161–62 Herschel, William, 163 Higgs particle, 256 High Frontier, 146–47 Hilton, Paris, 88, 101–2 Hilton hotels, 145 Hinduism, 20 Hiroshima, 222 Hitler, Adolf, 32, 34 Hope, Dennis M., 145, 147 Horowitz, Paul, 237–38 hot Jupiters, 127–28, 130 Hubble Space Telescope, 56–57, 65, 218, 225 Huffington, Arianna, 92 human beings: as adaptable to challenging environments, 118–22 as alien simulations, 260–61, 260 creative spirit of, 73, 248 early global migration of, 5–12, 9, 11, 15, 19, 118, 120, 186, 202, 218, 262, 265 Earth as perfectly suited for, 118–22, 121 exploration intrinsic to nature of, 7–12, 109, 218, 261–63 first appearance of, 5, 15, 172, 234 impact of evolutionary divergence on, 201–4 as isolated species, 241–42 as lone intelligent life, 241, 243 merger of machines and, see cyborgs minimal viable population in, 201–2, 251 off-Earth, 203–4, 215, 250–52 requirements of habitability for, 122, 124–26, 129, 130–31 sense of self of, 232, 261 space as inhospitable to, 53–54, 114–17, 121, 123 space exploration by robots vs., 53–57, 66, 98, 133, 161, 177–79, 179, 208, 224–28 space travel as profound and sublime experience for, 45, 53, 117, 122 speculation on future of, 93, 94, 204, 207–8, 215, 244–47, 248–63, 249 surpassed by technology, 258–59 threats to survival of, 94, 207–8, 244–47, 250, 259–62, 286, 293 timeline for past and future of, 248–50, 249 transforming moment for, 258–59 Huntsville, Ala., US Space and Rocket Center in, 48 Huygens, Christiaan, 163 Huygens probe, 53 hybrid cars, 96 hydrogen, 110, 156, 159, 161, 187, 219, 222 hydrogen bomb, 36 hydrosphere, 173 hyperloop aviation concept, 95 hypothermia, 251 hypothetical scenarios, 15–16 IBM, 213 Icarus Interstellar, 224 ice: on Europa, 125 on Mars, 163–65, 227 on Moon, 159–60 ice ages, 7–8 ice-penetrating robot, 98 IKAROS spacecraft, 184 imagination, 10, 14, 20 exploration and, 261–63 immortality, 259 implants, 206–7 inbreeding, 201–3 India, 159, 161 inflatable modules, 101–2 inflation theory, 255–57, 255 information, processing and storage of, 257–60 infrared telescopes, 190 Inspiration Mars, 170–71 Institute for Advanced Concepts, 280 insurance, for space travel, 106–7 International Academy of Astronautics, 152 International Geophysical Year (1957–1958), 37 International Institute of Air and Space Law, 199 International MicroSpace, 90 International Scientific Lunar Observatory, 157 International Space Station, 55, 64–65, 64, 71, 75, 91, 96, 100, 102, 142, 143, 144, 151, 153, 154, 159, 178–79, 179, 185, 272, 275 living conditions on, 116–17 as staging point, 148 supply runs to, 100–101, 104 International Space University, 90 International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), 105–6, 144 Internet: Congressional legislation on, 78, 144 development of, 76–77, 77, 94, 95, 271 erroneous predictions about, 213–14 limitations of, 66–67 robotics and, 206 space travel compared to, 76–80, 77, 80 Internet Service Providers (ISPs), 78 interstellar travel, 215–18 energy technology for, 219–24 four approaches to, 251–52 scale model for, 219 Intrepid rovers, 165 Inuit people, 120 Io, 53, 177 property rights on, 145 “iron curtain,” 35 Iron Man, 95 isolation, psychological impact of, 169–70 Jacob’s Ladder, 149 Jade Rabbit (“Yutu”), 139, 143, 161 Japan, 161, 273 Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), 184 Jefferson, Thomas, 224 Jemison, Mae, 224 jet engines, 69–70 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 141 Johnson, Lyndon, 38, 42, 45, 158, 269 Johnson Space Center, 76, 104, 179, 206, 229, 269 see also Mission Control Jones, Stephanie Tubbs, 74 Joules per kilogram (MJ/kg), 219–20, 222 Journalist in Space program, 74 “junk” DNA, 10, 266 Juno probe, 228 Jupiter, 126, 127, 177, 217, 270 distance from Earth to, 50 moons of, 97, 125, 125 probes to, 51–52, 228 as uninhabitable, 125 Justin (robot), 178 Kaku, Michio, 253 Karash, Yuri, 65 Kardashev, Nikolai, 253 Kardashev scale, 253, 254, 258 Kármán line, 70, 70, 101 Kennedy, John F., 41–43, 45 Kepler, Johannes, 183 Kepler’s law, 127 Kepler spacecraft and telescope, 128, 128, 129–31, 218, 278 Khrushchev, Nikita, 42, 47 Kickstarter, 184 Killian, James, 38 Kline, Nathan, 205 Knight, Pete, 71 Komarov, Vladimir, 43, 108 Korean War, 141 Korolev, Sergei, 35, 37 Kraft, Norbert, 200 Krikalev, Sergei, 115 Kunza language, 119 Kurzweil, Ray, 94, 207, 259 Laika (dog), 47, 65, 269 Laliberté, Guy, 75 landings, challenges of, 51, 84–85, 170 Lang, Fritz, 28, 268 language: of cryptography, 291 emergence of, 15, 16 of Orcas, 190 in reasoning, 13 Lansdorp, Bas, 170–71, 198–99, 282 lasers, 223, 224, 225–26, 239 pulsed, 190, 243 last common ancestor, 6, 123, 265 Late Heavy Bombardment, 172 latency, 178 lava tubes, 160 legislation, on space, 39, 78, 90, 144, 145–47, 198–200 Le Guin, Ursula K., 236–37 Leonov, Alexey, 55 L’Garde Inc., 284 Licancabur volcano, 119 Licklider, Joseph Carl Robnett “Lick,” 76–78 life: appearance and evolution on Earth of, 172 artificial, 258 detection of, 216–18 extension of, 26, 207–8, 250–51, 259 extraterrestrial, see aliens, extraterrestrial intelligent, 190, 235, 241, 243, 258 requirements of habitability for, 122–26, 125, 129, 131–33, 241, 256–57 lifetime factor (L), 234–335 lift, in flight, 68–70, 83 lift-to-drag ratio, 83 light: from binary stars, 126 as biomarker, 217 Doppler shift of, 127 momentum and energy from, 183 speed of, 178, 228–29, 250, 251 waves, 66 Lindbergh, Charles, 30, 81–82, 90–91, 268 “living off the land,” 166, 200 logic, 14, 18 Long March, 141 Long March rockets, 113, 142, 143 Long Now Foundation, 293 Los Alamos, N.

pages: 314 words: 91,652

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas S. Kuhn, Ian Hacking


Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, cuban missile crisis, experimental subject, Isaac Newton, The Design of Experiments, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

American schoolchildren had to practice cowering under their desks. At least once a year towns sounded an air raid siren, at which everyone had to take shelter. Those who protested against a nuclear weapon, by ostentatiously not taking shelter, could be arrested, and some were. Bob Dylan first performed “A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall” in September 1962; everyone assumed it was about nuclear fallout. In October 1962 there was the Cuban Missile Crisis, the closest the world has come, after 1945, to nuclear war. Physics and its threat were on everyone’s mind. The Cold War is long over, and physics is no longer where the action is. Another event of 1962 was the awarding of Nobel prizes to Francis Crick and James Watson for the molecular biology of DNA and to Max Perutz and John Kendrew for the molecular biology of hemoglobin. That was the harbinger of change.

., xiin11 Cold War, ix commitment: group commitment, 181–86; instrumental, 40–41; and normal science, 7, 40–42, 43; to paradigm, 100–101; quasi-metaphysical commitments, 41 communities, scientific, xxi, xxii, xxiv; insulation from demands of everyday life, 163–64; losses due to paradigm changes, 169; practitioners of a scientific specialty, 176; rarely study the same problems, 161; requisites for membership, 167–68; structure of, and paradigms, 19–20, 175–86; subject matter of, 179 computer communication, ix Comte, Auguste, xxxiv, xxxivn42 Conant, James, viii, xlv conjectures, xiv Continental mechanics, 33 Copernicus and Copernican revolution, xliv, 6, 76, 80, 93, 98, 156; and calendar design and astrology, xlv, 82, 152; and paradigm-induced changes in scientific perception, xxviii, 116–17, 153–54; and prediction of annual parallax, 27; Preface to the De Revolutionibus, 69; prerevolutionary crisis state, 67–70, 71, 74, 75, 76, 82, 83, 86; resistance to, 148–49, 150 correspondence theory, xxxv Coulomb, Charles-Augustin de, 21, 29, 34; Coulomb’s Law of electrical attraction, 28, 35, 36 counterinstances, 77, 78–80, 82, 131 Crick, Francis, ix crisis, xi, xxiii, xxv, xliii; and anomaly, 68, 81–83; and argument and counterargument, 156; and blurring of a paradigm, 84; description of in the De Revolutionibus, 69; effects of, 83–84; may develop in one community and create crisis in another, 180; and multiple emergent paradigms, xxxii; often proliferates new discoveries, 88–89; in physics in late nineteenth century, 72–75; in pneumatic chemistry, 86; preceding Lavoisier’s oxygen theory of combustion, 70–72; as precondition for novel theories, 75, 77; and prolonged awareness of anomaly, 68; provision of data for paradigm shift, 89; response to, 77–91; and theory change, xxvii; transition to new paradigm, 84–91 Crookes, William, 58n7, 93 Cuban Missile Crisis, ix d’Alembert, Jean, 31 Dalton, John, xxix, 79, 106, 191–92; chemical atomic theory, 129, 131, 132–34, 138, 140, 180 Darrow, K. K., “Nuclear Fission,”60n10 Darwin, Charles: lack of recognized goal, 170–71; The Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, xv, 149–51 De Broglie, Louis, 157 definitions, 183 dephlogisticated air, 54, 55, 80, 85, 118, 146 Desaguliers, John Theophilus, 14 Descartes, René, 41, 104, 121, 126, 149, 193 descriptive and narrative modes, 206–7 development, scientific: competition between views of nature in early stages of, 4; concept of development-by-accumulation, 2–3; and expectations, 59; and first received paradigm, 64; prior to universally received paradigm, 12–18; schools characteristic of early stages of, 17 Dewey, John, xxxvii disciplinary matrix, 181–86, 187 discoveries (novelties of fact), 53; and destructive-constructive paradigm changes, 53, 66, 97; difficulty of establishing priority, 55–56; gradual and simultaneous emergence of observational and conceptual recognition, 56, 62; and previous awareness of anomaly, 62; resistance to, 62.

pages: 326 words: 97,089

Five Billion Years of Solitude: The Search for Life Among the Stars by Lee Billings


Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, California gold rush, Colonization of Mars, cosmological principle, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, Dava Sobel, double helix, Edmond Halley, full employment, hydraulic fracturing, index card, Isaac Newton, Kuiper Belt, Magellanic Cloud, music of the spheres, out of africa, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, planetary scale, profit motive, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, random walk, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Searching for Interstellar Communications, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Solar eclipse in 1919, technological singularity, the scientific method, transcontinental railway

In the ensuing arms race both the United States and the Soviet Union succeeded in harnessing the far more powerful process of thermonuclear fusion, squeezing the destructive force of hundreds of Nagasakis into individual bombs. The resulting arsenals of thermonuclear weapons were more than adequate to extinguish hundreds of millions of lives in a single nuclear exchange. Those who survived such a nuclear holocaust would face a severely damaged planetary biosphere and a world plunged into a new Dark Age. Less than a year after the Green Bank proceedings, the Cuban missile crisis would bring the world to the brink of thermonuclear war, and as time marched on, more and more nations successfully weaponized the power of the atom. Humans had developed a global society, radio telescopes, and interplanetary rockets at roughly the same time as weapons of mass destruction. If it could happen here, Morrison gloomily suggested, it could happen anywhere. Perhaps all societies would proceed on similar trajectories, becoming visible to the wider cosmos at roughly the same moment they gained an ability to destroy themselves.

., 196, 198, 215, 221–23 Butler, Paul, 55, 58–70, 96, 114 Caldeira, Ken, 181 California, 105–7, 112–13 gold rush in, 105–6, 111, 112–13 Calvin, Melvin, 15, 19–20, 25 Cambrian Period, 138–39, 143–45, 182 Cameron, James, 258 Campbell, Joseph, 261 Canada, 244–48 Canadian Shield, 246 Capella, 239 carbon, 123, 131, 132, 134, 135, 140, 141, 175, 179, 182 carbonate-silicate cycle, 175–81, 184 carbon cycle, organic, 175 carbon dioxide (CO2), 124, 132, 134–37, 140, 141, 157, 159–62, 168, 170, 172, 173, 175–82, 184 Carboniferous Period, 131, 132 Carina Nebula, 238 Carnegie Institution, 251 Carpenter, Scott, 100 Carter, Jimmy, 240 Cash, Webster, 219–20 Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, 96 Challenger, 3, 188–89 Chandra X-Ray Observatory, 192, 209 Chaotian Eon, 139 Charbonneau, David, 228–30, 232 charged-coupled devices (CCDs), 51–53 China, 21–22 chlorofluorocarbons, 134, 142 chlorophyll, 141, 143 Christmas Tree Cluster, 238 Clinton, Bill, 196, 215 clouds, 161–62, 164, 206 coal, 125, 131, 134, 136, 137, 144, 160, 184 Columbia, 189, 196 comets, 2, 3, 19, 76–77, 140 Halley’s, 3 Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, 192, 209 computers, 43–44 Constellation program, 196, 198, 203, 204, 215, 221, 223 convergent evolution, 21 Cook, James, 85–86 Copernican Principle (principle of mediocrity), 83, 89, 91 Copernicus, Nicolaus, 81–83, 86, 87, 89, 91, 200 Cornell University, 39, 42 coronagraphic TPF, 217–22, 224, 231, 249 coronagraphs, 217 cosmology, 77–82 Copernican Principle (principle of mediocrity) in, 83, 89, 91 inflationary theory in, 89–92 modern, 86–87, 91 see also astronomy Cosmos, 240 Costanza, Robert, 74–75 Crab Nebula, 30 Crabtree, William, 84 Crutzen, Paul, 134–35 Cuban missile crisis, 23–24 cyanobacteria, 140–44, 175, 183 Daily Mail, 74 dark energy, 88, 90 dark matter, 206 Darwin, Charles, 200 Davidson, George, 113 deep time, 145–46 Democritus, 79, 80, 92, 238 Demory, Brice, 259 De Rerum Natura (On the Nature of Things) (Lucretius), 80–81 De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium (On the Revolutions of Heavenly Orbs) (Copernicus), 82 Devonian Period, 128, 130–32 Diamandis, Peter, 258 dinosaurs, 30, 136, 144 Discovery, 189 DNA, 40, 141, 143, 170 dolphins, 16, 20–21 Drake, Frank, 9–17, 27–45, 101, 167–68, 240 Arecibo transmission of, 39–41 orchids of, 37–38 Drake equation, 16–25, 28–29, 38–39, 41, 42, 183 longevity of technological civilizations (L term) in, 22–25, 38–39, 41, 42 Draper Laboratory, 256 Dyson, Freeman, 104 Dyson spheres, 104, 105 Earth, 109 asteroid strike on, 30 atmosphere of, 3, 132, 134–35, 139, 140, 144, 157–60, 168–69, 174–77, 206, 238 “Blue Marble” images of, 212, 239–41 carbonate-silicate cycle on, 175–81, 184 climate of, 123–24, 128, 132–37, 142, 144, 156–57, 160–62, 173–75, 184 in early cosmology, 77–82 energy consumption on, 103–4 extinctions on, 43, 135, 184 faint young Sun problem and, 173–75 formation of, 2, 7, 20, 139, 173 geologic time periods of, 128–45 glaciation on, 132–34, 142, 174, 176, 178, 179, 183 human population of, 43, 100, 134, 136 ice caps of, 128, 132–33, 135, 136, 184 Laughlin’s idea for moving orbit of, 76–77 Laughlin’s valuation of, 73–76 oxygen on, 139–44, 159, 171, 180–82, 200, 238 Snowball Earth events, 142, 174, 179 Sun’s distance from, 83, 86 tectonic plates of, 30, 105, 111, 128, 140, 144, 176, 229 union of organisms with geophysical systems on (Gaia hypothesis), 175, 176, 178, 183 water on, 3, 30, 158–61, 174, 177–80, 182 Earth, life on, 31, 154 diversification and explosion of, 138–39, 143, 144, 182 emergence of, 4, 7, 19–20, 238 end of, 7–8, 31–32, 75–77, 159, 180–83 essential facts of, 29–30 humanity’s ascent, 144–46 intelligent, 20–21, 182–83 jump from single-celled to multicellular, 28 redox reactions and, 168 Earth-like planets, 29, 32–34, 71–72, 99, 227–28 Earth-size or Earth-mass planets, 6, 53–54, 56, 200, 227, 251 ecology and economics, 74 economic growth, 102, 103 Eddington, Arthur, 35 Edison, Thomas, 106 Einstein, Albert, 35, 87 Elachi, Charles, 211–12, 214, 221 electricity, 103, 136 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 254 Endeavour, 190 endosymbiosis, 143 energy, 103–4, 136–38 from fossil fuels, 103, 124–27, 137, 154, 160, 184 Engelder, Terry, 126 Epicurus, 80 Epsilon Eridani, 10–11 Eshleman, Von, 35 ethanol, 137 eukaryotes, 143, 144 European Southern Observatory (ESO), 60, 64, 66 European Space Agency, 222 evolution, 183 convergent, 21 of universe, 88–89 exoplanetology, 13, 14, 34, 51, 193 exoplanets, 5, 27–28, 87, 222–23, 263 51 Pegasi b, 50, 53, 54, 58–59 Alpha Centauri Bb, 98–99 biosignatures and, 167–72, 261–62 Blue Marble images of, 212–15 distinguishing between various compositions of, 251 Earth-like, 29, 32–34, 71–72, 99, 227–28 Earth-size or Earth-mass, 6, 53–54, 56, 200, 227, 251 formation of, 109 GJ 667Cc, 65–69, 72 Gliese 581c, 163 Gliese 581d, 163 Gliese 581g (Zarmina’s World), 63–64, 68, 69, 72, 163 Gliese 876b, 60 habitability of, 154–83 HD 85512b, 163–64 Jupiter-like, 13, 28, 50, 56, 59, 60, 108, 109, 226, 228, 248–49 Laughlin’s valuation of, 71–77 migration theory and, 108 Neptune-like, 56, 108–9, 251 “Next 40 Years” conference on, 225–35, 263 observation of stars of, 33 snow line idea and, 110 super-Earths, 228–29, 251, 262 transits of, 53 TrES-4, 228 exoplanet searches, 5–7, 13–14, 32–33, 69–70 and false-alarm discoveries, 52–53 press releases on progress in, 163–65 SETI and, see SETI spectroscopy in, see spectroscopy, spectrometers see also telescopes Ferguson, Chris, 185–86 financial markets, 111–12 Fischer, Debra, 59, 61, 62, 69, 96 Ford, Eric, 249–50 Ford, Henry, 125 fossil fuels, 103, 124–27, 137, 154, 160, 184 fracking (hydraulic fracturing), 126–27 Gaia hypothesis, 175, 176, 178, 183 galactic planetary census, 54 galaxies, 87, 88, 99, 238 Andromeda, 31, 191, 238 Hubble Telescope and, 191 Local Group of, 88 Milky Way, see Milky Way Galileo, 241–42 Galileo Galilei, 81–83, 210 Galliher, Scot, 257 Garrels, Robert, 178 gas, natural, 125–27, 137, 184 Gemini telescopes, 199–200, 203 General Dynamics Astronautics time capsule, 100–103 geologic time periods, 128–45 geology, 110–11, 123 glaciers, 132–34, 142, 174, 176, 178, 179, 183 Glenn, John, 100 Goldin, Dan, 194, 211, 215, 242 governments, Urey on, 102 gravitational lenses, 35–37 Great Observatories, 192, 197, 209 Greece, ancient, 77, 92, 238 Green Bank conference, 15–25, 27–28, 101, 167–68, 240 greenhouse gases, 124, 134, 137, 157, 160, 174, 175 carbon dioxide, see carbon dioxide methane, 140, 142, 168–71, 174, 200 Grunsfeld, John, 197–99, 225–26, 235 Guedes, Javiera, 96 Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, 74–75 “Habitable Zones around Main Sequence Stars” (Kasting), 155–56, 159 Hadean Eon, 139–40, 156 Halley, Edmond, 84 Halley’s comet, 3 Hart, Michael, 174, 178 Hays, Paul, 176–79 heliocentrism, 79–82 Hiroshima, 23 Holmes, Dyer Brainerd, 100–101 Holocene Epoch, 133–35, 145 Horrocks, Jeremiah, 84 Howard, Andrew, 62 How to Find a Habitable Planet (Kasting), 167 Hu, Renyu, 259 Huang, Su-Shu, 15, 19 Hubble, Edwin, 86–87 Hubble Space Telescope, 189–93, 195, 197–99, 205–7, 209, 218–19, 226 human genome project, 234 hydraulic fracturing (fracking), 126–27 hydrogen, 159, 170–72 Icarus, 155 ice ages, 132, 133, 142–43 Industrial Revolution, 22, 134 inflationary theory, 89–92 Ingersoll, Andrew, 159 intelligence, 20–21, 23, 32, 182–83 interferometry, 213–14, 216, 231 International Space Station (ISS), 187, 189, 197, 202, 207–8, 210 interstellar travel, 44–45, 100–101 iron, 141 James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), 193–99, 202–4, 209, 215, 216, 218, 220, 225, 262 Jensen-Clem, Becky, 259 Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), 211–12, 216, 219, 221–25, 231 Johnson, Lyndon B., 101 Journal of Geophysical Research, 178 Jupiter, 76, 109, 191, 239 Galileo’s study of, 81 Kepler’s laws and, 83 moons of, 28, 110 Jupiter-like planets, 13, 28, 50, 56, 59, 60, 108, 109, 226, 228, 248–49 Kasdin, Jeremy, 219–20 Kasting, Jerry, 150–52 Kasting, Jim, 150–67, 169–84 children of, 153 Kasting, Sandy, 150 Kasting, Sharon, 153 Keck Observatory, 59, 60, 62, 66, 118 Kennedy, John F., 224 Kennedy Space Center, 185 Kepler, Johannes, 82, 83 planetary motion laws of, 82–84 Kepler field stars, 41 Kepler Space Telescope, 13–14, 53–54, 56, 62, 71–73, 98, 108–9, 166, 201, 225, 229–30, 263 Kirschvink, Joseph, 142 Knapp, Mary, 259 Korolev, Sergei, 186 Kuchner, Marc, 217–18 Kuiper Belt, 76 Large Magellanic Cloud, 238 Lasaga, Antonio, 178 Late Heavy Bombardment, 3, 140 Laughlin, Greg, 5–6, 48–50, 53–57, 69–70, 93–100, 107–12, 114–15, 117–20 Alpha Centauri planet search and, 94–98 idea to move Earth, 76–77 magnetic toy of, 93–94 SETI as viewed by, 99 valuation equation of, 71–77 laws of nature, 155–56 Lederberg, Joshua, 15, 16, 167–68 Le Gentil, Guillaume, 85, 117 Leinbach, Mike, 185–86 Lick, James, 112–14 Lick Observatory, 58, 61, 62, 70, 113–19 life, 32 on Earth, see Earth, life on intelligent, 23, 32 single-celled, 20 technological, see technological civilizations light: photons of, 72, 89, 115–16, 156, 191, 193–94, 201, 202, 213, 216, 237–38 polarization of, 115–16 waves of, 213–14, 216 Lilly, John, 15–16, 20–21 Local Group, 88 Lovelock, James, 168, 170, 174–76, 178, 181–83 Lucretius, 80–81 Lyot, Bernard, 217 Madwoman of Chaillot, The, 36 Manhattan Project, 23 Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research, 127, 149 Marcellus formation, 126–30, 137, 138, 141, 144, 160 Marconi, Guglielmo, 48 Marconi Conference Center, 48–50, 53–57 Marcy, Geoff, 57–63, 69, 70, 114, 194, 230–32, 235 Margulis, Lynn, 175 Mars, 19, 50, 87, 100, 107, 109, 155, 167, 179, 191, 192, 239 Kepler’s study of, 82, 83 missions to, 187, 188, 196, 207, 221 water on, 28, 179 Marshall, James, 105–6, 112 Martian Chronicles, The (Bradbury), 98–99 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 251–52, 259 ExoplanetSat project, 256–57 “Next 40 Years of Exoplanets” conference at, 225–35, 263 Mayor, Michel, 58 McPhee, John, 145 mEarth Project, 228–29 mediocrity, principle of (Copernican Principle), 83, 89, 91 Mercury, 82, 109, 239 meteorites, 20 methane, 140, 142, 168–71, 174, 200 methanogens, 140, 142, 169 microbes, 28 Miletus, 77 Milky Way, 16–17, 25, 31, 39, 41, 79, 86–87, 191, 237, 238 Sun’s orbit in, 95 Miller, George P., 101 Miller, Stanley, 19 Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science, 48, 74 mitochondria, 143 Moon, 3, 76, 100, 229, 242 in early cosmology, 78, 83 formation of, 30, 139 Moon, missions to, 188, 196, 221, 224 Apollo, 1, 50, 151, 187, 202, 212, 239 Morrison, Philip, 15, 18–19, 21, 23–24 Mosely, T.

pages: 310 words: 89,838

Massive: The Missing Particle That Sparked the Greatest Hunt in Science by Ian Sample


Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, Donald Trump, double helix, Ernest Rutherford, Gary Taubes, Isaac Newton, John Conway, John von Neumann, Menlo Park, Murray Gell-Mann, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Stephen Hawking, uranium enrichment, Yogi Berra

The truth emerged days later, when Khrushchev showed footage of the aircraft wreckage. The plane was almost entirely intact, and the pilot was alive and well. Tensions between the Cold War adversaries escalated to a new high. The Soviet physicists that Wilson and his delegation were trying to build relationships with could hardly bear to speak to them. The U-2 incident was followed swiftly by the Cuban missile crisis, which pushed the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war. But in spite of desperate political upheavals throughout the 1960s and 1970s, a small group of scientists from America, the USSR, and CERN continued to sketch out plans for Wilson’s World Accelerator. As presidents and premiers fell, Wilson saw the project as a way to heal the wounds of war, to replace suspicion and secrecy with trust and cooperation.

Calogero, Francesco Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) Camporesi, Tiziano Cancer treatment Carroll, Sean Cashmore, Roger Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Posner) “Cathode rays” experiments Cat’s Cradle (Vonnegut) CERN about description financial problems as international safety committee CERN accelerators beginnings Gargamelle detector/group neutral currents Soviet Union and See also Particle accelerators CERN colliders argument/poem beginnings design W/Z particles and CERN LEP (Large Electron Positron) collider about/description closing plans/extensions competition with Fermilab’s Tevatron construction evidence for Higgs Higgs boson and high-speed train effects Lake Geneva and meetings/decision on closing moon/sun effects pollution concerns and pushing to limit sabotage Thatcher’s speech and underground location and W/Z particles and Z particles and CERN LHC (Large Hadron Collider) about/description competition with Fermilab’s Tevatron construction/schedule doomsday scenarios and explosion (2008) funding Higgs boson and media on “imaginary” goal repairs/safety system (2011) running at half energy supersymmetry and switch-on U.S. colliders and Chadwick, James Churchill, Winston Clark, Ronald W. Clarke, Arthur C. Cline, David Clinton, Bill Cockroft, John Cogill, Michael Coleman, Sidney Color charge Conway, John background blogging Fermilab and Copernicus, Nicolaus Cosmic inflation theory Cosmic rays collider safety and strangelets and vacuum decay and Coulson, Charles Crick, Francis Cuban missile crisis Curie, Marie Dark energy Dark matter Darriulat, Pierre Darwin, Charles Das Gupta, Sabul De Broglie, Louis Department of Energy, U.S. Deryagin, Boris Descartes, René Desertron accelerator Di Lella, Luigi Dimensions Dirac, Paul background/description equation magnetic monopoles Nobel lecture question quantum mechanics/relativity Salam and Discover magazine Dixon, Paul DNA structure Donohoe, F.J.

The Culture of Narcissism: American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations by Christopher Lasch

cuban missile crisis, delayed gratification, desegregation, feminist movement, full employment, George Santayana, impulse control, Induced demand, invisible hand, Kitchen Debate, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, means of production, Norman Mailer, road to serfdom, Scientific racism, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen, union organizing, upwardly mobile, urban renewal, yellow journalism

The careers of both Kennedy and Nixon testify to the prevailing obsession with crisis management and the management of impressions. Kennedy, in his eagerness to overcome the impression of weakness left by the Bay of Pigs fiascoitself the product of a haunting fear that the Cuban revolution had undermined American prestige in Latin America-blustered against Nikita Khruschchev in Vienna proclaimed Berlin "the great testing-place of Western courage and will, and risked nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis, even though Soviet missiles in Cuba, deliberately provocative as they were in no way altered the military balance of power. In many ways the most , " , important event of the Kennedy administration however-its high point, from which everything else was a decline-was the inaugural, a spectacle that solidified the myth of Camelot before , . Camelot had even come into being. "The torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans born in this century tempered , , In these by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace words Kennedy invoked his preoccupation with discipline testing, and tempering on behalf of a whole generation's belief-so soon shattered-that it stood poised on the brink of greatness Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country."

, aggression, 179: and anlagonislic cooperation, Bach, Sheldon: on changing patlems of psychic disor - der, 42 Bad Seed, The (March) 204 Balzac, de, Honorc 93 , , 118-9; in business , 119; and competition , conservalive critique of . 57 9- 232-6: and dependence 228-32: in education 142, 144. 146; and narcissism, 43-7, 61 n : and propaganda 75-7; and , . , survivalism 61-3 . 275 276 : Index Index : 277 Bush. Vannevar, 139 Crusoe, Robinson, 53 emitleinenl,221 Bun, Dorcas Susan, 104; on compeiiiion, 117 ciyonics,207 Epstein. Joseph: on sports, 102 escalation: theory and tactics of, 82 Eveigmn State College, 141 n. Ewen, Stuart: on advertising, 92 Exley, Frederick, 18.19: quoted. 21.22,140 Cuban missile crisis, 79 " Caillois, Roger: on games, 100 California Insliluie of Technology, 215 calling: Puritan doctrine of, 54-6 cultural deprivation, 142 cultural revolution, xv, 5, 114, 126, 151. 177 n.; we Calvinism:«r Puritanism aillure: and personality, 33-5,63-4 Camp Walter. 120, 121: on sports. 113 Carnegie Cotporation, 149,226 Carnegie, Dale, 59 castration: fear of, 203-5 Cat s Crad/e (Vonnegut), 20 Caweltt, John; on success myth, 58 celebrity, 59-61, 118-9; cull of, 21-2, 33 , 84, 181, 231-2: and fame, 84-6 Center for Policy Reseatch, 168 n.

Nuclear War and Environmental Catastrophe by Noam Chomksy


American Legislative Exchange Council, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, energy security, Howard Zinn, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Malacca Straits, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks

Kennedy Confronts Communist Revolution in Latin America (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1999), 137. According to Graham Allison: “The U.S. air strike and invasion that were scheduled for the third week of the confrontation would likely have triggered a nuclear response against American ships and troops, and perhaps even Miami. The resulting war might have led to the deaths of 100 million Americans and over 100 million Russians.” “The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50: Lessons for U.S. Foreign Policy Today,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012. 109 National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 281, s.v. “Documents 8A-D: DEFCON 3 during the October War.” 110 The CIA speculates Soviet fears of an imminent attack may have been a response to US actions launched a few months into Reagan’s first term: air and naval probes near Soviet borders that sought vulnerabilities in early warning systems; fleet exercises in proximity to sensitive Soviet military and industrial sites and operations that simulated surprise naval attacks; radar-jamming and transmission of false radar signals; submarine and antisubmarine aircraft conducting maneuvers in areas where the Soviet Navy stationed its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines; and simulated bombing runs over a Soviet military installation in the Kuril Island chain.

pages: 753 words: 233,306

Collapse by Jared Diamond


clean water, colonial rule, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, Donner party, European colonialism, Exxon Valdez, illegal immigration, job satisfaction, means of production, new economy, North Sea oil, Piper Alpha, polynesian navigation, prisoner's dilemma, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, Stewart Brand, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transcontinental railway, unemployed young men

In early 1961 they fell into poor group decision-making practices that led to their disastrous decision to launch the Bay of Pigs invasion, which failed ig-nominiously, leading to the much more dangerous Cuban Missile Crisis. As Irving Janis pointed out in his book Groupthink, the Bay of Pigs deliberations exhibited numerous characteristics that tend to lead to bad decisions, such as a premature sense of ostensible unanimity, suppression of personal doubts and of expression of contrary views, and the group leader (Kennedy) guiding the discussion in such a way as to minimize disagreement. The subsequent Cuban Missile Crisis deliberations, again involving Kennedy and many of the same advisors, avoided those characteristics and instead proceeded along lines associated with productive decision-making, such as Kennedy ordering participants to think skeptically, allowing discussion to be freewheeling, having subgroups meet separately, and occasionally leaving the room to avoid his overly influencing the discussion himself.

Irving Janis, Groupthink (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1983, revised 2nd ed.) explores the subtle group dynamics that contributed to the success or failure of deliberations involving recent American presidents and their advisors. Janis's case studies are of the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, the American army's crossing of the 38th parallel in Korea in 1950, American's non-preparation for Japan's 1941 Pearl Harbor attack, America's escalation of the Vietnam War from 1964 to 1967, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and America's adoption of the Marshall Plan in 1947. Garrett Hardin's classic and often-cited article "The tragedy of the commons" appeared in Science 162:1243-1248 (1968). Mancur Olson applies the metaphor of stationary bandits and roving bandits to Chinese warlords and other extractive agents in "Dictatorship, democracy, and development" {American Political Science Review 87:567-576 (1993)).

pages: 829 words: 186,976

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't by Nate Silver


airport security, availability heuristic, Bayesian statistics, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory,, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, negative equity, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition,, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons

The contingency we have not considered seriously looks strange; what looks strange is thought improbable; what is improbable need not be considered seriously. Because of the United States’ isolation from the European and Asian continents and the relatively good relations we have maintained with the rest of the Americas since the promulgation of the Monroe Doctrine, we have infrequently been the subject of foreign attack. The exceptions (September 11) and near-misses (the Cuban Missile Crisis) have therefore been exceptionally jarring to us. Before Pearl Harbor, the last foreign attack on American soil had been during the War of 1812.19 Americans just do not live among the ruins of wars past, as people in Europe and Asia have throughout their history. But our Hawaiian territory* sat in the middle of the Pacific Ocean: Honolulu is closer to Tokyo (3,860 miles) than to Washington, DC (4,825 miles).

Because such an attack could be hundreds of times worse than 9/11, however, the question of its likelihood has been the subject of intense debate in the national security community. One of the more pessimistic assessments comes from Graham Allison, a professor of political science at Harvard. Allison served in the administrations of both President Reagan and President Clinton, and his books and papers on the Cuban missile crisis have been cited thousands of times by other scholars.55 So when Allison has something to say, his peers listen. Allison came to a frightening conclusion in 2004: “A nuclear terrorist attack on America in the decade ahead is more likely than not,”56 he wrote. Allison qualified his forecast by saying it assumed we remained “on the current path”—a world in which there are dangerous terrorist groups, vulnerable nuclear materials at many places around the world, and a lack of focus on the problem from U.S. policy makers.

., 185–88, 254–55 Council of Economic Advisers, 40 Council on Foreign Relations, 435 Cramton, Steven, 292–93 creativity, 287–88, 289, 290, 291, 311 credit bubble, 68, 196 credit default option (CDO), 20–21, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26–30, 36, 43, 462 tranches of, 26–28, 28 credit default swap, 36 credit markets, 19 Crist, Charlie, 33 Cronkite, Walter, 207–8 Crowley, Monica, 48–49, 467 crystal methamphetamine, 221 Cuban Missile Crisis, 419, 433 Curb Your Enthusiasm, 111 cyclones, see hurricanes Czechoslovakia, 52 Daily Kos, 60 Damon, Matt, 317 Dark Winter, 437 Darwin, Charles, 375 data: in baseball, 79–80, 84 Big, 9–12, 197, 250, 253, 264, 289, 447, 452 distribution of, 164, 165 in economics, 80, 185, 193–94 in frequentism, 253 overfitting of, 163–71, 166, 168–71, 185, 191, 452n, 478 Pareto principle and, 313 data mining, 298 Daum, Robert, 224, 227, 229 David, Larry, 111 Davis, Ricky, 239, 257 De Bernardinis, Bernardo, 143 debt crisis, European, 198 Deep Blue, 10, 266, 268, 292, 493–94 bug in, 283, 285, 286, 288–89 creation of, 283–85 Kasparov’s final games against, 282–83 Kasparov’s first game against, 268, 270–79, 271, 274, 275, 276, 278 Kasparov’s second game against, 279–82, 280 rook moved for no apparent purpose by, 277–79, 278, 288 Deep Thought, 268, 284 default, 20–21, 22, 27–29, 184 defense, 90, 92, 106 Defense Department, U.S., terrorism prevention by, 273 defensive range, 96 de Groot, Adriaan, 272 Denver, Colo., 150 Denver Post, 176 depth, breadth vs., 271–73 determinism, 112, 113, 241, 242, 249, 448 Detroit Tigers, 77, 88, 94 difference engine, 263 Discover, 160 discrimination, calibration vs., 474 disease, see infectious disease diversification, 27 “Divine Benevolence” (Bayes), 241, 242 Djokovic, Novak, 496 Dodger Stadium, 79 Dokhoian, Yuri, 282 Domodedovo Airport, 440 dot-com boom, 346–48, 361 Dow Jones Industrial Average, 37, 339, 340, 343, 498, 503 Doyle, Arthur Conan, 307 Drake equation, 488 Druckenmiller, Stanley, 356 Dukakis, Michael, 68 Duke University, 359 Dutch book, 256n Dwan, Tom, 308–11, 313, 315, 318, 324, 328 dynamic systems, 16, 118, 120, 194 E*Trade, 339, 363, 498 earthquake forecasting, 149–54, 230 computers in, 289 failure of, 7, 11, 143, 147–49, 158–61, 168–71, 174, 249, 253, 346, 389 overfitting and, 168–71, 185 short-term, 174 time-dependent, 154 earthquakes, 16, 142–75, 476, 512 aftershocks to, 154, 161, 174, 476–77 in Anchorage, 149 causes of, 162 distribution across time and space of, 154–57, 155, 427 foreshocks to, 144, 154, 155–57, 476 Great Sumatra, 161, 171 in Haiti, 147n, 155–56, 156, 224 in Japan, 154, 155, 168–71, 172 in L’Aquila, 142–44, 148, 154–55, 157, 173 Lisbon, 145 list of deadliest, 147 Loma Prieta, 160 magnitude vs. frequency of, 151–53, 152, 153, 368n, 427, 432, 437–38, 441 near Reno, 156–57, 157 in New Zealand, 174 earthquake swarm, 143n, 173 Earth System Science Center, 408 East Germany, 52 eBay, 353 Ecclesiastes, 459 economic data, noise in, 193–94, 198 economic growth, 6, 6, 186n economic progress, 7, 112, 243 economics, predictions in, 33, 176–77, 230 actual GDP vs., 191–93, 192, 193, 194 Big Data and, 197 computers in, 289 consensus vs. individual, 197–98, 335 context ignored in, 43 an ever-changing economy, 189–93 economics, predictions in (Cont.)

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The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload by Daniel J. Levitin


airport security, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Anton Chekhov, Bayesian statistics, big-box store, business process, call centre, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive bias, complexity theory, computer vision, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Donald Trump,, epigenetics, Eratosthenes, Exxon Valdez, framing effect, friendly fire, fundamental attribution error, Golden Gate Park, Google Glasses, haute cuisine, impulse control, index card, indoor plumbing, information retrieval, invention of writing, iterative process, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, life extension, meta analysis, meta-analysis, more computing power than Apollo, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, optical character recognition, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, phenotype, placebo effect, pre–internet, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, Rubik’s Cube, Skype, Snapchat, statistical model, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Bayes, Turing test, ultimatum game, zero-sum game

No one country can solve these issues, and no collection of countries can if they view each other as out-groups rather than in-groups. You might say the fate of the world depends (among other things) on abolishing out-group bias. In one particular case, it did. October 1962 was perhaps the time in world history when we were closest to complete destruction of the planet, as President Kennedy and Chairman Khrushchev were engaged in a nuclear standoff known in the United States as the Cuban Missile Crisis. (Or, as the Soviets called it, the Caribbean Crisis of 1962.) A key aspect of the conflict’s resolution was a back-channel, private communication between JFK and Khrushchev. This was the height of the cold war. Officials on each side believed that the other was trying to take over the world and couldn’t be trusted. Kennedy saw himself and all Americans as the in-group and Khrushchev and the Soviets as the out-group.

Stereotyping and sampling biases in intergroup perception. In J. R. Eiser (Ed.), Attitudinal judgment (pp. 109–134). New York, NY: Springer-Verlag, p. 113. we tend not to reevaluate the stereotype Rothbart, M., & Lewis, S. (1988). Inferring category attributes from exemplar attributes: Geometric shapes and social categories. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55(5), 861–872. Caribbean Crisis of 1962 Garthoff, R. L. (1988). Cuban missile crisis: The Soviet story. Foreign Policy, 72, 61–80. “try to put yourself in our place.” Khrushchev, N. (1962, October 24). Letter to President Kennedy. Kennedy Library, President’s Office Files, Cuba. No classification marking. This “official translation” prepared in the Department of State and an “informal translation” from the Embassy in Moscow (transmitted in telegram 1070, October 25; Department of State, Presidential Correspondence: Lot 66 D 304) are printed in Department of State Bulletin, November 19, 1973, pp. 637–639.

., 323, 324–25 cooperative behavior, 135–36 coronary bypass surgery, 259 corporate structures, 271–76, 464n283 correlation, 60, 347–51, 348 cost-benefits analysis, 5, 212–13 Coulter, Ann, 340 covariation, 347–48, 348 creativity and aging, 217–18 and attention, 38 and central executive function, 202, 210, 375–76 and flow state, 203–8, 209 and focus, 171 and organizational systems, 304 and serendipity, 376, 378, 380–81 and time management, 170–71, 202–15 critical thinking, 336, 341, 343, 352, 478n352 crowdsourcing, 114–17, 133, 333 Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly, 203, 206, 400n7 Cuban, Mark, 292 Cuban Missile Crisis, 155, 366 Curie, Marie, 283 Dali, Salvador, 375 Darley, John, 157–58, 159 data compression, 311–12, 314 data losses, 321–26 Dawkins, Richard, 26–27 daydreaming mode and attention, 38–39 and creativity, 202, 217, 375–76, 380 and free association, 364–65 and online dating, 132 and organizational systems, 304 and reading fiction, 367 and social relations, 152 and time organization, 169, 170 decisions, 73, 98, 100, 132, 218, 220–32, 276–83, 310–11, 423n132 Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster, 134 defining features, 65–66 delayed gratification, 166, 197 De Morgan, Augustus, 377 Dennett, Daniel, 45 denominator neglect, 255–56 Descartes, René, 14–15 designated places, 83, 83–86, 88 De Waal, Frans, 282–83 Dewey Decimal System, 296, 378 dietary supplements, 253–54, 255, 258, 260 diffusion of responsibility, 157–59 digital storage, 91–106 diphtheria, 250 disciplined initiative, 286 disk failures, 321 dispositional explanations, 145–46 distraction, 198, 209–10 distributed processing, xxi, 303 division of labor, 269 divorce rates, 133, 261–62 document organization, 293–306, 413n95.

The Cardinal of the Kremlin by Tom Clancy


active measures, airport security, cuban missile crisis, invisible hand, mutually assured destruction, Stephen Hawking

The nature of any weapon, like the beauty of any woman, lay in the eye of the beholder-or the direction in which it was pointed-and throughout history, success in warfare was determined by the proper balance of offensive and defensive elements. Soviet nuclear strategy, Misha thought to himself, made far more sense than that of the West. Russian strategists did not consider nuclear war unthinkable. They were taught to be pragmatic: the problem, while complex, did have a solution-while not a perfect one, unlike many Western thinkers they acknowledged that they lived in an imperfect world. Soviet strategy since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962-the event had killed Filitov's recruiter, Colonel Oleg Penkovskiy-was based on a simple phrase: "Damage Limitation." The problem wasn't destroying one's enemy with nuclear weapons. With nuclear weapons, it was more a question of not destroying so much that there would be nothing left with which to negotiate the "war-termination" phase. The problem that occupied Soviet minds was preventing enemy nuclear weapons from destroying the Soviet Union.

He asked himself if this was a good idea and admitted that he didn't know. What filled his mind was the importance of this agent and his information. There were precedents. The brilliant agent Richard Sorge in Japan in 1941, whose warnings to Stalin were not believed. Oleg Penkovskiy, who'd given the West information on the Soviet military that might have prevented nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis. And now another. He didn't reflect on the fact that alone in CIA, he knew the agent's face but not his name or code name. It never occurred to him that Judge Moore didn't know CARDINAL'S face, had for years avoided looking at the photograph for reasons that he could never have explained even to his deputy directors. The phone rang, and a hand reached out from under a blanket to grab it.

Vatutin was surprised to see that Filitov had been involved in the infamous Penkovskiy case. Oleg Penkovskiy had been a senior officer in the GRU, the Soviet military intelligence command; recruited by the British, then "run" jointly by the SIS and CIA, he'd betrayed his country as thoroughly as any man could. His penultimate treason had been to leak to the West the state of preparedness-or lack thereof-of the Strategic Rocket Forces during the Cuban Missile Crisis; this information had enabled American President Kennedy to force Khrushchev to withdraw the missiles that he'd so recklessly placed on that wretched island. But Penkovskiy's twisted loyalty to foreigners had forced him to take too many risks in delivering that data, and a spy could take only so many risks. He'd already been under suspicion. You could usually tell when the other side was getting just a little too clever, but Filitov had been the one who provided the first real accusation Filitov was the one who'd denounced Penkovskiy?

Necessary Illusions by Noam Chomsky


anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, British Empire, centre right, collective bargaining, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, full employment, Howard Zinn, Khyber Pass, land reform, long peace, New Journalism, Ronald Reagan, strikebreaker, union organizing

Anti-Cuban terrorism was directed by a secret Special Group established in November 1961 to conduct covert operations against Cuba under the code name “Mongoose,” involving 400 Americans, 2,000 Cubans, a private navy of fast boats, and a $50 million annual budget, run in part by a Miami CIA station functioning in violation of the Neutrality Act and, presumably, the law banning CIA operations in the United States.29 These operations included bombing of hotels and industrial installations, sinking of fishing boats, poisoning of crops and livestock, contamination of sugar exports, blowing up of civilian aircraft, etc. Not all of these actions were directly authorized by the CIA, but we let no such niceties disturb us when condemning officially designated terrorist states. Several of these terrorist operations took place at the time of the Cuban missile crisis of October-November 1962. In the weeks before, Raymond Garthoff reports, a Cuban terrorist group operating from Florida with U.S. government authorization carried out “a daring speedboat strafing attack on a Cuban seaside hotel near Havana where Soviet military technicians were known to congregate, killing a score of Russians and Cubans”; and shortly after, attacked British and Cuban cargo ships and again raided Cuba among other actions that were stepped up in early October while Congress passed a resolution “sanctioning the use of force, if necessary, to restrain Cuban aggression and subversion in the Western Hemisphere” and voted to withhold aid from any country trading with Cuba.

For reasons of space, I will largely keep to the Newspaper of Record. For further details, see the references of note 36, including some exceptions to the general pattern, primarily in the Christian Science Monitor and Los Angeles Times, and editorials in the Boston Globe. 40. See Manufacturing Consent, chapter 5, and sources cited. A variant of this diplomatic strategy was called “the Trollope ploy” by the Kennedy intellectuals during the Cuban missile crisis, when they sought to evade a proposal by Khrushchev that they recognized would be regarded generally as a reasonable way to terminate the crisis; the “ploy” was to attribute to Khrushchev a different and more acceptable stand, just as the heroine of a Trollope novel interprets a meaningless gesture as an offer of marriage. The December 1988 reversal on speaking to the PLO is another example; see appendix V, section 4. 41.

Fred Barnes, TNR, May 30, 1988; editorial, TNR, April 2, 1984. For a longer excerpt see Turning the Tide, 167-68; and notes, on the efforts by editor Hendrik Hertzberg to evade the facts. Hertzberg, TNR, Feb. 6, 1989. Recall also the laudatory comments on Reagan’s dedication to human rights during the propaganda exercises at the Summits, already discussed. 29. Raymond L. Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Brookings Institution, 1987, 17). 30. Ibid., 16f., 78f., 89f., 98; International Security, Winter 1987-88, 12. For more on these terrorist operations, see the references of chapter 5, note 25; also U.S. Army Captain Bradley Earl Ayers, The War that Never Was (Bobbs-Merrill, 1976); Warren Hinckle and William Turner, The Fish is Red (Harper & Row, 1981); William Blum, The CIA (Zed, 1986); Morris Morley, Imperial State and Revolution (Cambridge, 1987). 31.

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The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature by Steven Pinker

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, anti-communist, British Empire, clean water, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Defenestration of Prague, desegregation, epigenetics, Exxon Valdez, George Akerlof, germ theory of disease, ghettoisation, glass ceiling, Hobbesian trap, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invisible hand, long peace, meta analysis, meta-analysis, More Guns, Less Crime, Murray Gell-Mann, mutually assured destruction, Norman Mailer, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Potemkin village, prisoner's dilemma, profit motive, QWERTY keyboard, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Bork, Rodney Brooks, Saturday Night Live, speech recognition, stem cell, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the new new thing, theory of mind, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, ultimatum game, urban renewal, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

During the trench warfare of World War I, weary British and German soldiers would probe each other’s hostile intent with momentary respites in shelling. If the other side responded with a respite in kind, long periods of unofficial peace broke out beneath the notice of their bellicose commanders.107 As a British soldier said, “We don’t want to kill you, and you don’t want to kill us, so why shoot?”108 The most consequential episode in which belligerents sought a way to release their deadly embrace was the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when the United States discovered Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba and demanded that they be removed. Khrushchev and Kennedy were both reminded of the human costs of the nuclear brink they were approaching, Khrushchev by memories of two world wars fought on his soil, Kennedy by a graphic briefing of the aftermath of an atomic bomb. And each understood they were in a Hobbesian trap.

The only way to win a Prisoner’s Dilemma is to change the rules or find a way out of the game. The World War I soldiers changed the rules in a way that has been much discussed in evolutionary psychology: play it repeatedly and apply a strategy of reciprocity, remembering the other player’s last action and repaying him in kind.110 But in many antagonistic encounters that is not an option, because when the other player defects he can destroy you—or, in the case of the Cuban Missile Crisis, destroy the world. In that case the players had to recognize they were in a futile game and mutually decide to get out of it. Glover draws an important conclusion about how the cognitive component of human nature might allow us to reduce violence even when it appears to be a rational strategy at the time: Sometimes, apparently rational self-interested strategies turn out (as in the prisoners’ dilemma…) to be self-defeating.

cooperation Coren, Stanley cortex auditory prefrontal ventromedial visual Cosmides, Leda Council on Bioethics Cowen, Tyler creationism Crick, Francis crime genetics and peer groups and punishment and see also rape; violence; psychopathy Crime in America (Clark) Crime of Imprisonment, The (Shaw) Crime of Punishment, The (Menninger) critical period critical theory Critique of Practical Reason (Kant) Crittenden, Danielle Croce, Jim Cronin, Helena Cuban Missile Crisis Cultural Revolution vcultural studies culture: autonomy of differences in emotions and epidemiological models of learning of material success and neural circuitry and socialization and stability and change in Culture of Honor (Nisbett and Cohen) Dahmer, Jeffrey Daly, Martin Damasio, Antonio Damasio, Hannah Daniels, Denise Danto, Arthur Darkness in El Dorado (Tierney) Darrow, Clarence Darwin, Charles Darwinian Left, A (Singer) Dawkins, Richard deafness Death by Government (Rummel) decision making Declaration of Independence deconstructionism see also postmodernism Deep Blue Degler, Carl de Kenessey, Stefania Delaney Clause Delay, Tom democracy Denfeld, Rene Dennett, Dan Derrida, Jacques Derrière Guard Descartes, René determinism deterrence Devil’s Dictionary, The (Bierce) DeVore, Irven de Waal, Frans Dialectical Biologist, The (Levins) dialectical biology Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems (Galileo) Diamond, Jared Dickeman, Mildred Dickens, Charles Dickinson, Emily Dictator game Didion, Joan difference feminism Discovery Institute discrimination age sex Disney, Walt Disraeli, Benjamin Dissanayake, Ellen Divale, W.

pages: 1,509 words: 416,377

Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty by Bradley K. Martin


anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, four colour theorem, illegal immigration, informal economy, kremlinology, land reform, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, Potemkin village, profit motive, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, special economic zone, stakhanovite, UNCLOS, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

An opportunity for a second south-ward strike came during the confusion of the South Korean student uprising against Rhee in April of 1960. Both China and Russia urged against acting, however, according to Hwang Jang-yop’s reported later testimony. The Pyongyang leadership lacked the stomach to go it alone, particularly since it had just finished rebuilding the country from the ruins of the first Korean War.16 In 1962, U.S. President John F. Kennedy went eyeball-to-eyeball with Khrushchev in the Cuban Missile Crisis; it was the Russian who blinked, agreeing to eliminate the Soviet missile bases in Cuba that had sparked the crisis. Kim Il-sung’s growing concern that he could not depend on his biggest supposed backer in the communist world inspired a major round of diplomacy to find friends among the smaller communist and Third World countries. Just as he split with Moscow over its challenge to the doctrine of continuing revolution, so Kim eventually turned on Beijing—for failing to put aside its own disputes with Moscow in the interest of the Vietnamese revolution.17 Before that dispute could be cooled off Chinese Red Guards would attack Kim’s very un-communist lifestyle, deriding him as “fat,” a “counterrevolutionary,” “a millionaire, an aristocrat and a leading bourgeois element in Korea.”18 Mean-while, American attempts to remove Fidel Castro in Cuba and to defeat the Viet Cong made Kim wonder if he might be next.

“North Koreans were better off than people in China, including Yanbian, until the early 1970s,” one such person, an ethnic Korean professor at the Yanbian Academy of Social Sciences, told me.5 “During the 1960s lots of Koreans from China went over to North Korea because life there was much better than in China. There was a lot of internal strife in China during the 1960s. From the 1970s, the situation in North Korea started deteriorating because the government spent too much on the military after the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and the Vietnam War. Gradually China, including Yanbian, pulled ahead. The difference was that people in China not only had money; they also had something to spend it on. The North Koreans got their salaries but there was nothing to buy with their money.” The professor, speaking in 1992, said that people in North Korea had been “hungry although not actually starving, since the mid-1970s.

Zhao Fengbin, a North Korea specialist at Jilin University in China, implicitly backed Pyongyang’s version. Zhao said North Korea had overemphasized its heavy industry—and as a result had fallen behind the South economically by the early 1970s—because of concern aroused by American policies in the 1960s in Cuba and Vietnam. Hwang Jang-yop, a former Workers’ Party secretary who defected to South Korea in 1997, is quoted as having said that the Cuban Missile Crisis sparked Kim’s policy of simultaneous development of the economy and the military. “Money in your own pocket is better than money in your brother’s, and it is always best to keep one’s wallet full,” Kim said after he heard of the crisis, Hwang is said to have recalled (“Preparations for War in North Korea” in Testimonies of North Korean Defectors: True Picture of North Korea According to a Former Workers Party Secretary [Seoul: National Intelligence Service], an undated summary that was posted on the NIS’s Web site as of May 17, 2002, but is no longer available there). 16.

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The Race: The Complete True Story of How America Beat Russia to the Moon by James Schefter


Berlin Wall, Burning Man, cuban missile crisis, Kitchen Debate, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, V2 rocket

These Second Nine would write some of the most important chapters in the story of the space race, and two of them would die before another of them crossed the finish line. They were in a tough business. That was part of the challenge and part of the fun. The weeks after Schirra’s Mercury flight were not fun for Jack Kennedy or for the thousands of Reserve and National Guard troops called to active duty during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Nikita Khrushchev again was forcing a confrontation by putting intermediate-range attack missiles in Cuba. The Soviet Rocket Force was an expanding power, and the country’s success in space had put an exclamation point on the image that Russian rockets were a potent threat. Khrushchev knew how to exploit his propaganda success and how to get what he really wanted. After Kennedy blockaded the sea-lanes around Cuba, turning back Soviet ships carrying additional missiles, the two countries came to a quiet agreement.

But in the light of what happened later, and what eventually became known, Valya Tereshkova’s mental state might never have fully stabilized. In 1967, she told reporters that the Russian moon crew was already in training. Its commander, she said, was Yuri Gagarin. Then she added: “And I am on it.” It didn’t quite work that way. Did Jack Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev have a cure for the Cold War? The Cuban Missile Crisis opened new channels between the American president and the Soviet premier, including a hot line directly connecting the White House with the Kremlin. The worst that could be said is that the two leaders were beginning to understand each other, though the understanding on each side was imperfect. In autumn 1963, Kennedy renewed his proposal that Russia and the United States join forces in a lunar program.

pages: 568 words: 162,366

The Oil and the Glory: The Pursuit of Empire and Fortune on the Caspian Sea by Steve Levine


Berlin Wall, California gold rush, computerized trading, corporate raider, cuban missile crisis, facts on the ground, failed state, fixed income, indoor plumbing, Khyber Pass, megastructure, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, oil rush, Potemkin village, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, telemarketer, trade route

His rise to prominence had begun in 1959, when Oztemel had seemingly come out of nowhere to execute an eyebrow-raising trade: $5.5 million of American-made steel in exchange for military-grade Soviet chromium ore, an essential ingredient in strategic stainless steel. Three years later, he and a Swedish partner named Ralph Feuerring negotiated an unqualified masterstroke—exclusive rights to import Soviet chrome into the United States. A deal that made both men millionaires, it was all the more extraordinary considering that superpower relations at the time were strained to the breaking point over the Cuban Missile Crisis. Over fifths of Dewar’s after business hours, Oztemel regaled his subordinates with his account of landing the deal. The turning point, he would say, was his friendship with a powerful Soviet minister named Anastas Mikoyan, a former trusted aide to Stalin. That no one, including his closest associates and friends, ever actually saw him with Mikoyan didn’t seem to matter. As time passed, the story only enhanced Oztemel’s reputation as a man with unrivaled influence in the Soviet Union.

Huhs and a gangly classmate named Carl Longley liked the sound of it: a chance for adventure, rather than the mundane corporate work to which their classmates were headed. The Stanford pair flew east. In their interviews, Giffen told them that superpower relations were changing. The chill generated by two decades of hostilities—Moscow’s invasion of Hungary, the Bay of Pigs fiasco, the erection of the Berlin Wall, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, the crushing of the Prague Spring—had passed. Now, as the 1960s neared an end, détente was blossoming, led by the anti-Soviet warhorse Nixon and his brainy German-born adviser Kissinger. Trade barriers between the United States and the Soviets were falling, Giffen told his visitors, and the Park Avenue firm he represented was well positioned to profit from the boom that was sure to come.

pages: 410 words: 122,537

Engines of War: How Wars Were Won & Lost on the Railways by Christian Wolmar


anti-communist, British Empire, Cape to Cairo, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Khartoum Gordon, railway mania, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, V2 rocket

However, the British government did request the state-owned British Railways to make civil defence preparations for nuclear war in the mid-1950s. Old carriages, mostly from the 1920s and 1930s, were fitted with modern communications equipment to act as mobile emergency control offices and communication centres for government officials in the event of a nuclear war. These works were carried out in secret but later it emerged that at least four of these trains had been formed in 1962, following the Cuban Missile Crisis. They were moved around between half a dozen secret locations, including Faversham, Tunbridge Wells, Derby and York, but appear to have been returned to British Rail in the early 1980s and at least three survive as passenger coaches on preserved lines. Missile trains were the swansong of the military use of railways. There is the odd exception, with armoured trains still being deployed in Russia, which is forever beset with insurgents, and in North Korea, where Kim Jong-il travels around his country in his personal one, but that is more a neat commentary on just how much the Dear Leader trusts his fellow countryfolk rather than on the effectiveness of such use of the railways.

Burgoyne, Field Marshal Burma Burma-Siam railway Burton, Anthony Cairo Calais Calcutta Caledonian Railway camels Campbell, Donald canals Cannae, battle of Cape Colony Cape Government Railway Cape of Good Hope Cape to Cairo railway project Cape Town Caporetto, battle of carbon monoxide poisoning Carentan Carlisle Carnegie, Andrew Carpathian Mountains Carter, Ernest cavalry Cossack and First World War Central Ohio Railroad Central Pacific Railroad Centreville, Virginia Chamberlain, Neville Champagne Chancellorsville, battle of Charge of the Light Brigade Charing Cross station chariots Charles the Bold Charleston, South Carolina Chartres Chattanooga, Tennessee Chechen wars Chelyabinsk Chemin de Fer Meusien Cherbourg Chickamauga, battle of Chieveley China and Korean War and Sino-Japanese War and Vietnam War Chinese Eastern Railway Chittagong Churchill, Winston Cirencester Ciurea Clausewitz, Carl von Clifford, Captain Henry coal coffee Cold War Cologne Columbus, Ohio concentration camps Congo Congress of Vienna Constantinople see also Istanbul Cooke, Brian Corfu corps d’armée system Cossacks Côte d’Azur Coventry Crewe Crimea Crimean War Cromarty Firth Cuba Cuban Missile Crisis Czech Legion Czechoslovakia Daily Telegraph Dakar Dalny (Dalian) Damascus Danevirke retreat Danube, river Danville, Virginia Dardanelles Davies, W. J. K. Davis, Jefferson Dawnay, General de Wet, Christiaan Décauville company Deighton, Len Denikin, General Anton Denmark Department of Military Railways Deraa Derby Deutsche Bank Dien Bien Phu, battle of Dimapur Dinton station Dnieper, river Dniester, river Doctor Zhivago Donetz Dornisoara Dover Dresden Dunanreanu, Nicolae Dunkirk Dunkirk evacuation Dvina, river dynamite East Prussia Eastriggs Eboli Edinburgh Egypt Eisenbahntruppen Elbe, river Elburz mountains elephants Engineer and Railway Volunteer Staff Corps Est railway Estcourt Estonia Eugénie, Empress Fakhri Pasha Farakka Faversham Fayolle, Capitaine Feisal, Prince Feldeisenbahnabteilung Feldmann, Lieutenant Ferdinand I, Emperor ferries Ferro, Marc Festing, General Francis Finland First World War Arab Revolt battle of Passchendaele Brusilov offensive defence of Verdun Eastern Front and evacuation of wounded German spring offensive Marne battles and Middle East preparatory phase and diplomacy ‘Race to the Sea’ and railway safety and railway timetables Schlieffen Plan Somme battles supply operations US entry Western Front Flanders Fleming, Peter Flensburg Fliegende Hamburger train Folkestone Fontenoy Ford Model T cars Fort Sumter France allied invasion and ambulance trains colonial interests and Crimean War and Italian wars and Plan XVII railway accidents railway system railways and First World War railways and Second World War size of armed forces and Vietnam War Franco, General Francisco Franco-Prussian War and subsequent wars francs-tireurs Frankfurt Franz Ferdinand, Archduke Franz Joseph, Emperor Fratesti Fredericksburg, Virginia French Resistance French secret services Fuller, William Fusan Gabel, Christopher Galatz Galicia Gallieni, General Joseph-Simon Gallipoli Ganges, river gares régulatrices Garland, Herbert Garrett, John Gaza Geddes, Sir Eric Geneva Genoa George V, King German South-West Africa German-Danish War Germany and air raids and ambulance trains colonial interests railways and First World War railways and Second World War size of armed forces unification see also Prussia Gettysburg, battle of Ghazala Gibraltar Gilinsky, General Girard (engine driver) Girouard, Edouard (Sir Percy) Glasgow Glubb Pasha gold Gordon, General Charles George Gorgopotamus Viaduct Göring, Hermann Görlitz Granson, battle of Grant, General Ulysses Great Central Railway Great Eastern Railway Greece Gretna Junction Grey, Sir Edward Grierson, Colonel Benjamin guerrilla attacks see also sabotage gunpowder torpedoes Gurlt, Dr Hagenau Haifa Haldane, Captain Hamburg Hamilton, J.

pages: 497 words: 124,144

Red Moon Rising by Matthew Brzezinski


Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Columbine, cuban missile crisis, Kitchen Debate, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, skunkworks, trade route, V2 rocket, Vanguard fund, walking around money, white picket fence

“Those friggin missiles,” as John F. Kennedy derisively referred to the Jupiters, finally caused Khrushchev to snap when they became operational in Turkey in late 1961. From their Turkish bases, they could hit military installations in the heart of the Soviet Union, effectively restoring the very same strategic imbalance that had prompted Moscow to build rockets in the first place. The net result was the Cuban missile crisis. As it turned out, it would be a U-2, and not the top-secret Corona, that snapped the incriminating photographs of Soviet launchpad preparations on Castro’s island that would spark the most dangerous showdown of the cold war. For Khrushchev, the attempt to station intermediate-range rockets on Cuban soil in the autumn of 1962 was a desperate gambit to redress the R-7’s shortcomings. By placing smaller missiles within striking distance of America’s shores, he sought to buy time for Yangel’s R-16 to finish trials and go into mass production.

., 16, 49, 51, 56, 85, 89–90, 141, 148, 183, 257 Tsander, Friedrich, 107–8, 245 Tsien Hsue-shen, 89 Tsiolkowsky, Konstantin, 43, 107, 135 Tulip launch stand, 96–99, 102, 131, 153–54, 157, 198 Tupolev, Andrei, 107, 109 Tupolev bombers, 25–26, 127 Turkey, 41, 116, 129, 270–71 Twining, Nathan, 58 Tyura-Tam test site, 96–97, 100, 102, 117, 128–32, 146, 148, 150–60, 205 U-2 spy plane, 115–28, 130–35, 178–79, 185, 205 Cuban missile crisis and, 271 satellites replace, 249–50 USSR shoots down, 270 Ukrainian Society of Aviation and Aerial Navigation, 107 United Fruit Co., 118 United Nations, 75, 78, 241 United Press International, 179 United States. See also specific government agencies; individuals; and programs bases of, in Europe and Asia, 25 development of jet power in, 45–59 first satellite launch by, with Explorer and Juno, 260–67 German scientists gathered by, 14 Hungarian revolution of 1956 and, 74–76 IGY satellite program and, 92–93 impact of Korolev and Khrushchev’s space program on, 274–75 Korolov speaks of satellite plans of, to get Soviet support, 43–44 lag behind Soviets in space, after Explorer, 268–69 leads in ICBM race, 269–70 military spending, vs.

Turning the Tide by Noam Chomsky


anti-communist, Bolshevik threat, British Empire, collective bargaining, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, failed state, feminist movement, Howard Zinn, land reform, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, Paul Samuelson, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, union organizing

It has repeatedly done so elsewhere after provocations that the US would not tolerate for a moment, particularly in the Middle East, the most likely location for the outbreak of global war.3 Nevertheless, Lehman’s prognosis cannot be discounted. Senator Durenberger’s proposal illustrates what has been called “the deadly connection”: the prospect that Third World intervention will lead to superpower confrontation and nuclear war. This has come close to happening quite a few times in the past, and will again. There is no more urgent issue on the contemporary scene.4 One such occasion was the Cuban missile crisis that brought the world ominously close to nuclear war in 1962. At that time, according to testimony of participants, planners considered a nuclear war highly likely if they rejected Khrushchev’s offer to resolve the crisis peaceably with complete withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba. They rejected this offer because it entailed simultaneous withdrawal of US missiles from Turkey: obsolete missiles for which a withdrawal order had been issued (but not yet implemented) because they were being replaced by Polaris submarines.

Robert Komer, Under-Secretary of Defense in 1979-80, notes that “Actual defense outlays went up in every Carter year, in strong contrast to the declines characteristic of every Nixon-Ford year from FY1969 through FY1976” (resulting from the end of the Vietnam War), with a “substantial increase” in FY1981 (under Carter). The actual military outlays for the early 1980s “average slightly lower than the Carter projections...Almost every Reagan equipment program to date was begun under Carter, or even before, with the notable exception of SDI.” At the same time, Soviet increases in spending, which accelerated after the Cuban missile crisis, tapered off to about 2% a year from 1976.75 In fact, the whole charade is farcical. Windows and gaps appear when they are needed to justify escalation of military spending; they close when they no longer contribute to this end, or when other concerns require reduction of military programs. In none of the three crucial cases was there any significant change in the international environment, any new threat to the US or its allies, to justify the military programs undertaken.

Killing Hope: Us Military and Cia Interventions Since World War 2 by William Blum


anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bolshevik threat, centre right, collective bargaining, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, deindustrialization, kremlinology, land reform, liberation theology, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, nuremberg principles, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, trickle-down economics, union organizing

But, of course, Time magazine is so unused to the word "independent" that an independent foreign policy must be very confusing indeed. In South America, where everyone would like to follow an independent foreign policy but where only Brazil has, at times, the courage, no one was confused.24 Goulart, a millionaire land-owner and a Catholic who wore a medal of the Virgin around his neck, was no more a communist than was Quadros, and he strongly supported the United Stares during the "Cuban Missile Crisis" of October 1962. He offered Ambassador Gordon a toast "To the Yankee Victory!",25 perhaps unaware that only three weeks earlier, during federal and state elections in Brazil, CIA money had been liberally expended in support of anti-Goulart candidates. Former CIA officer Philip Agee has stated that the Agency spent between 12 and 20 million dollars on behalf of hundreds of candidates.26 Lincoln Gordon says the funding came to no more than 5 million.27 In addition to the direct campaign contributions, the CIA dipped into its bag of dirty tricks to torment the campaigns of leftist candidates.28 At the same time, the Agency for International Development (AID), at the express request of President Kennedy, was allocating monies to projects aimed at benefiting chosen gubernatorial candidates.29 (While Goulart was president, no new US economic assistance was given to the central government, while regional assistance was provided on a markedly ideological basis.

But less than 50 miles from the Soviet Union sat Pakistan, a close ally of the United States, a member since 1955 of the South-East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), the US-created anti-communist alliance. On the very border of the Soviet Union was Iran, an even closer ally of the United States, with its relentless electronic listening posts, aerial surveillance, and infiltration into Russian territory by American agents. And alongside Iran, also bordering the Soviet Union, was Turkey, a member of the Russians' mortal enemy, NATO, since 1951. In 1962 during the "Cuban Missile Crisis", Washington, seemingly in a state of near-panic, informed the world that the Russians were installing "offensive" missiles in Cuba. The US promptly instituted a "quarantine" of the island—a powerful show of naval and marine forces in the Caribbean would stop and search all vessels heading towards Cuba; any found to contain military cargo would be forced to turn back. The United States, however, had missiles and bomber bases already in place in Turkey and other missiles in Western Europe pointed toward the Soviet Union.

pages: 494 words: 132,975

Keynes Hayek: The Clash That Defined Modern Economics by Nicholas Wapshott


airport security, banking crisis, Bretton Woods, British Empire, collective bargaining, complexity theory, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Gunnar Myrdal, if you build it, they will come, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, means of production, Mont Pelerin Society, mortgage debt, New Journalism, Northern Rock, Paul Samuelson, Philip Mirowski, price mechanism, pushing on a string, road to serfdom, Robert Bork, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trickle-down economics, War on Poverty, Yom Kippur War

He feared the Democrats’ conservative wing, led by Senator Harry F. Byrd Sr. of Virginia, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, who remained staunchly opposed to deficits. For two years Kennedy did little to stimulate the economy beyond the huge sums spent on defense and space, both of which, like Eisenhower, he claimed were essential to national security, an argument that took on added weight after the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. Military and space expenditures accounted for three-fourths of all spending increases during Kennedy’s presidency, and space funding rose even more dramatically, from $1 billion in 1960 to $6.8 billion four years later.51 Yet despite this massive injection of public money, joblessness continued to rise. In 1961 and 1962, the unemployment rate remained at over 5 percent. When Keyserling was called before Congress, he declared, much to the president’s fury, “They’re sending up a pygmy’s program to do a giant’s job.”52 When Kennedy finally acted to create full employment, he did it in a most unexpected way.

., 204, 230, 292–93 Constitution of Liberty, The (Hayek), 218–23, 290 consumer credits, 77 consumer prices, 41, 49–50, 54–55, 76–77, 81, 117–18, 143–44, 184–87, 189, 191, 224, 229–30, 267–68 consumption, 81–82, 119–20, 127, 131, 143–44, 184–87, 191 contractions, monetary, 217, 248–49 “Contract with America,” 272–74, 278, 293 corporations, 145, 233, 262, 264, 267–68, 275, 293 corporatist states, 145, 293 corruption, 159, 250, 277, 278 Council of Economic Advisers, 229, 231–32, 236, 242, 244, 278 “creative destruction,” 294 Credit-Ansalt Bank, 83 credit derivatives, 275 credit policies, 25, 43, 55, 79, 84–85, 100, 117–18, 136–37, 142, 160, 188, 279, 280–81 Crimean War, 11 Cromwell, Oliver, 140 Croome, H. M., 139, 140 Cuban Missile Crisis, 237 currencies: —Bretton Woods agreement on, 56, 193, 198, 243, 255 —devaluation of, 159–60, 243 —dollar as basis of, 31–32, 37–40, 56, 159–60 —exchange rates for, 22, 26–27 —fixed-price, 23, 37–40, 55–56 —floating price of, 37, 38–39, 56 —gold standard for, 22–23, 25, 26–27, 28, 37–40, 55–56, 72, 73, 85–87, 94, 136–37, 159–60, 193, 243 —international regulation of, 55–56, 193, 243, 255, 282–83 —Keynes’s views on, 22–23, 31–32, 37–40, 55–56, 82, 85–86, 136–37, 159–60, 193 —markets for, 22, 26–27, 52 —printing of, 22, 25, 131, 136, 149–50 —stability of, 136–37 —unemployment rate and, 31–32, 38–40, 56, 85–87 —value of, 26–27 Currie, Lauchlin, 165–66, 170 Curtin, John, 227–28 Czechoslovakia, 9, 17, 18 Czech Republic, 266 Daily Herald (London), 86 “Danaid jar,” 127 Darwin, Charles, 35, 43, 132 Darwinism, 35, 43 Davenport, John, 221 Dawson, Geoffrey, 133 debt: —banking policies on, 31–33, 41, 84 —interest on, 74 —national, 12, 84, 85, 86, 135, 154–55, 165, 224, 237, 241–42, 259, 264–65, 272–75, 276, 282–83 —personal, 144, 278–80 —war, 4–5, 8–14, 21–22, 31–32, 84, 155–57, 206 Defense Department, U.S., 232 “deferred pay,” 191–92 deficit financing, 86, 135, 154–55, 163, 165, 233, 234–35, 237, 240, 241–42, 243, 245, 264–65, 267, 274–75, 277–78, 283 deflation, 24–25, 32, 37, 39, 111–12, 135–36, 141–42, 188–89, 276, 277 DeLay, Tom, 273, 274 democracy, 9, 37, 151, 189, 193, 196–97, 202, 204–5, 219–23, 252, 266, 288–89, 291–93 democratic egalitarians, 35 Democratic Party, 235, 237, 244, 271, 275, 283, 293, 320n Denmark, 289 Dennison, Stanley, 248 depressions, economic, 54–55, 77–78, 79, 228, 230, 233, 287–88, see also Great Depression devaluation, currency, 159–60, 243 Diaghilev, Sergei, 53 “Dilemma of Thrift, The” (Foster and Catchings), 48–50 Dillon, C.

pages: 486 words: 148,485

Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error by Kathryn Schulz


affirmative action, anti-communist, banking crisis, Bernie Madoff, car-free, Cass Sunstein, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, conceptual framework, cosmological constant, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, desegregation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, lake wobegon effect, mandatory minimum, Pierre-Simon Laplace, Ronald Reagan, six sigma, stem cell, Steven Pinker, Tenerife airport disaster, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, trade route

And that, in turn, suggests that we all live, perpetually, on the horns of a dilemma—because if it is intellectually and morally corrosive to always think with others, it is also (as we have seen) impossible to always think for ourselves. It is not impossible, however, to deliberately stave off the dangers of groupthink. Irving Janis proposed a list of ways to do so, including explicitly encouraging disagreement, assigning someone the role of devil’s advocate, and actively seeking outside input. Many people cite President Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis as a successful effort to counteract groupthink (it seems he learned something from the Bay of Pigs), and others see reason for optimism in President Obama’s stated commitment to “vigorous debate inside the White House.” My favorite example, however, comes from the Talmud, the rabbinical writings that serve as a commentary on the Torah and the basis of Orthodox Judaism. According to these writings, if there is a unanimous guilty verdict in a death penalty case, the defendant must be allowed to go free—a provision intended to ensure that, in matters so serious that someone’s life is on the line, at least one person has prevented groupthink by providing a dissenting opinion.

See also language Communism (Communist Party), 13, 130, 285–88, 294 community beliefs, 133–58 Asch line studies and, 144–45, 155–56, 157 disagreement deficit and, 149–54 reliance on other people’s knowledge, 137–44 source evaluation and, 141–43 supression of dissent, 153–58 Swiss suffrage movement, 133–37, 146–48, 151 confabulation, 77–86, 165n, 354n Confessions (Augustine), 140, 284 confirmation bias, 124–31, 243 conformity, 138–39, 139n, 144–45, 153–58 Constitution, U.S., 313–14 conversion stories, 279–81 Abdul Rahman’s story, 154–55, 156 C. P. Ellis’s story, 273–79, 280, 294–95 Cook, James, 353n Copernicus, Nicolaus, 127, 357n Coulter, Ann, 148n Courbet, Gustave, 328 credulity, 167–68 cross-dressing theory of comedy, 324n Cruikshank, George, 54 Cuban Missile Crisis, 153 ’Cuz It’s True Constraint, 104–9, 130, 163 Dadaism, 328, 329 dark energy, 126n dark matter, 126n Darwin, Charles, 131–32 data, and error-prevention, 305–6 Davidson, Osha Gray, 275–76, 284n, 383n death-wish response to error, 26–27 decision studies (error studies), 11–12 defensiveness (defenses), 213–18 “better safe than sorry,” 216, 216n blaming other people, 215–16 certainty and, 165–70 denial and, 229–30, 306, 307 near-miss, 214–15, 216 out-of-left-field, 214–15, 216 time-frame, 213–14, 216 definition of wrongness, 10–17 Defoe, Daniel, 258, 382n delusion, 38–39, 40, 351n dementia, 80n democracy, 311–16, 386n denial, 209–10, 228–34, 375–76n Innocence Project and, 233–39, 242–43 Dennett, Daniel, 369n depression, 336 Descartes, René, 6, 33, 113–15, 118–22, 318–19, 349n, 362–63n desegregation of schools, 274–77 desert mirages, 50 Design of Everyday Things (Norman), 211 despair, 258–59, 265 developmental psychology, 100–101, 197–98, 289–92, 307, 385n deviance, 34–35n Dickinson, Emily, 283 Diderot, Denis, 29, 38 direct elections, 312–14 disagreement deficit, 149–54 disillusionment, 53, 252n distal beliefs, 95–96, 359–60n distribution of errors theory, 34–35 Divine Right of Kings, 312 divorce, 248–49, 266–69 divorce rate, 268–69n DNA testing, 222–23, 226–27, 376n, 379n error rate, 223n Innocence Project, 227, 233–39, 242–43 dogma (dogmatic beliefs), 287.

pages: 692 words: 127,032

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto


affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Berlin Wall, Brownian motion, carbon footprint, Cepheid variable, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, commoditize, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, desegregation, double helix, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fudge factor, ghettoisation, Harlow Shapley and Heber Curtis, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, sharing economy, smart grid, Solar eclipse in 1919, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, War on Poverty, white flight, Winter of Discontent, working poor, yellow journalism, zero-sum game

Five days before the thwarted invasion, the Soviets had sent the first human into orbit, pulling the rug out from under Kennedy’s campaign rhetoric about besting them in the space race. Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev was testing him in every way he could, keeping him on the ropes, a pattern that would continue all year long and include the building of both the Berlin Wall and the nuclear missile sites that resulted in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Back on his heels, his credibility on the line, Kennedy looked weak and outclassed. He needed a way to turn the political boxing match around and assert his leadership. He turned to the Moon—not for science’s sake, but to use science to beat Khrushchev. He later admitted as much in a November 1962 meeting with NASA administrator James Webb. “I am not that interested in space,” he told Webb.

., 75 Concept collapse, 118 Conflict frame, 180–82, 203–5, 287–88 Conservativism, 59–61, 131, 284–85, 287–88 Consilience, 4 Copernicus, 23, 120 Cornwall Alliance, 260–61, 299–300 Correctness, political, 130 Cosmos (television show), 105 Costanza, Robert, 259, 265, 267 Creationism, 15, 18, 164–70, 178, 184–85 Crick, Francis, 78 CRU, 200–205, 210–12, 214–15 Crutzen, Paul, 229 Cuban Missile Crisis, 93–94 Cuccinelli, Ken, 217–18 Cultural studies, 128–29 Culture wars, 123–24, 129, 149, 163, 177–81 Curtis, Heber, 67 Cynicism of baby boomers, 97–99 D Darrow, Clarence, 65 Darwin, Charles, 64, 99, 117, 168. See also Evolution Dawkins, Richard, 126–27 Deductive reasoning, 43 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 250–51, 265 Deficit model of science, 288–90 DeLay, Tom, 14–15 Democracy biology and, 54–55, 90 challenges facing, 33–34 complexity of world and, 6 danger of, 315 freedom and, 250, 252 Jefferson’s argument for, 51–53 knowledge and, 3–4, 90, 219 plurality and, 111 politics and, 87 science and, 55–57, 90, 97, 123, 157, 245–47 Democratic Party, 17, 59–61, 290 Demonstrative knowledge, 50 Denialism, 6, 130, 138, 195, 221–23, 296 Descartes, René, 43–45, 50 Desegregation, 124 Deutsch, George, 16 Diamond, Sara, 110 DNA, 78, 120 Dobson, James, 111 Doppler effect, 68 Douglas, Stephen, 87 Dualism, 43 Dubner, Stephen, 229–31 Duck and Cover (film), 80, 84 Dumbing down of nation, 11–15, 143–45 Dyck, Markus, 194 E Earth, age of, 27–28 Eberle, Francis, 292 Economics climate change and, 223–24 commoditization and, 312–13 ecosystem services and, 258 externalities and, 253 growth of economy and, 256–57 market, 302 in Middle Ages, 25 natural public capital and, 258, 265 opportunity cost and, 257 science and, 187, 255–56 SEEP challenges and, 187 self-interest and, 250, 260 sustainability and, environmental, 258, 261 tragedy of the commons and, 247–51, 268 tyranny on the commons and, 253–55 Ecosystem services, 258, 265 Ecosystem, value on, 259 Education Bloom’s view of, 127–28 cultural studies and, 128–29 desegregation and, 124 inclusiveness and, 126 Jefferson’s view of public, 34, 59 objectivity and, 126–28 science, 124–25, 291–93 sex, 17, 274–76, 279 social constructivism and, 125–26 Ehlers, Vernon, 14–15, 222 Ehrlich, Paul, 256 Einstein, Albert, 61–63, 69–70, 75, 77–78, 114, 119, 141–42 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 82, 90, 97, 314–15 Electromagnetic field health risks, 140–43 Elitism, 91 Endangered Species Act, 20, 192, 195 Energy companies, 197–98, 201, 224, 239 Energy conservation, 240–41 Engagement of science, 8, 293–94 English common law, 39–40 Enlightenment, 46, 112 Environmental problems, 96, 101–2, 252.

pages: 230 words: 62,294

The Coffee Book: Anatomy of an Industry From Crop to the Last Drop by Gregory Dicum, Nina Luttinger


California gold rush, clean water, corporate social responsibility, cuban missile crisis, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, European colonialism, Honoré de Balzac, illegal immigration, land reform, land tenure, open economy, price stability, Ray Oldenburg, The Great Good Place

In 1962, with extreme oversupply causing ever-falling coffee prices (stocks were well on their way to totaling double annual consumption), many analysts were convinced that the Latin American economies were on the verge of collapse and warned of the potential political consequences. The Brazilian economy in particular, 51 percent of which came from coffee earnings, was seen as the keystone in maintaining U.S. influence in the region. By 1963, at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the shift was nearly complete. John F. Kennedy’s Alliance for Progress—a massive capital infusion into Latin America for the explicit purpose of thwarting Communism in the region—was seriously threatened by an open coffee market. As Kennedy noted, “a drop of one cent a pound for . . . coffee costs Latin American producers $50 million in export proceeds—enough to seriously undercut what we are seeking to accomplish by the Alliance for Progress.”1 Other commentators were even more blatant.

pages: 144 words: 43,356

Surviving AI: The Promise and Peril of Artificial Intelligence by Calum Chace


3D printing, Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Airbnb, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, barriers to entry, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, brain emulation, Buckminster Fuller, cloud computing, computer age, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, dematerialisation, discovery of the americas, disintermediation, don't be evil, Elon Musk,, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Flash crash, friendly AI, Google Glasses, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of agriculture, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, life extension, low skilled workers, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, mutually assured destruction, Nicholas Carr, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, Peter Thiel, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, South Sea Bubble, speech recognition, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, theory of mind, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Vernor Vinge, wage slave, Wall-E, zero-sum game

We have solved many problems which seemed intractable when first encountered, and many of the achievements of our technology that 21st century people take for granted would seem miraculous to people born a few centuries earlier. We have already survived (so far) one previous existential threat. Ever since the nuclear arsenals of the US and the Soviet Union reached critical mass in the early 1960s we have been living with the possibility that all-out nuclear war might eliminate our species – along with most others. Most people are aware that the world came close to this annihilation during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962; fewer know that we have also come close to a similar fate another four times since then, in 1979, 1980, 1983 and 1995. (52) In 1962 and 1983 we were saved by individual Soviet military officers who decided not to follow prescribed procedure. Today, while the world hangs on every utterance of Justin Bieber and the Kardashian family, relatively few of us even know the names of Vasili Arkhipov and Stanislav Petrov, two men who quite literally saved the world.

pages: 257 words: 68,383

Bottled and Sold: The Story Behind Our Obsession with Bottled Water by Peter H. Gleick


carbon footprint, clean water, commoditize, cuban missile crisis, John Snow's cholera map, place-making, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley

My father and I spent hours birding there, wandering from one quiet oasis to another, finding the avian rarities that landed in the park during spring and fall migrations. We knew where all of the water fountains were, often navigating our way from fountain to fountain on days when the rest of the city sweltered. And as a young child in a New York City public school, I ducked and covered my way through the Cuban Missile Crisis in the halls by the white ceramic drinking fountains built into the walls themselves. Our formal pleas to our elementary school teachers of “May I get a drink of water” were certainly as common as “May I go to the bathroom.” But the history of water-related diseases has always left water fountains suspect, despite our efforts to provide clean water. Before cities built municipal water systems to purify tap water and collect and treat wastewater, diseases like dysentery, typhoid, and cholera were rampant, and people avoided drinking just plain water.

pages: 225 words: 11,355

Financial Market Meltdown: Everything You Need to Know to Understand and Survive the Global Credit Crisis by Kevin Mellyn


asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, Bernie Madoff, bonus culture, Bretton Woods, collateralized debt obligation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, disintermediation, diversification, fiat currency, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Santayana, global reserve currency, Home mortgage interest deduction, Isaac Newton, joint-stock company, liquidity trap, London Interbank Offered Rate, long peace, margin call, market clearing, mass immigration, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage tax deduction, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, paradox of thrift, pattern recognition, pension reform,, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, profit maximization, pushing on a string, reserve currency, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, The Great Moderation, the new new thing, the payments system, too big to fail, value at risk, very high income, War on Poverty, Y2K, yield curve

But I can also use the dollars in London by lending them to someone who needs U.S. dollars to make a payment or pay a debt. THE BIRTH OF THE EURODOLLAR In the post-war era, the Soviet Union and other communist countries in Europe held substantial U.S. dollar assets in U.S. banks. This persisted until the Kennedy era, despite the onset of the Cold War. The escalation of tensions that culminated in the Cuban Missile Crisis changed this. The Soviets feared that the Americans might simply steal their dollars and moved them into the London branch of a bank they controlled called Eurobank. The dollars parked there became known as Eurodollars. This pool dollars presented an opportunity to make dollar loans free of the politics and regulations of the United States but within the clubby rules of London. Soon the Eurodollar became the fuel for restoring London to its pre-1914 status as the financial capital of the world.

pages: 238 words: 68,384

The Charming Quirks of Others: An Isabel Dalhousie Novel by Alexander McCall Smith


cuban missile crisis

She only had to think for a moment before she realised that it was not the first time; there had been many points at which people had thought that their world was ending, and some of these not very long ago. In the sixties and seventies many people thought just that as they watched two bristling superpowers staring one another down, fingers on the triggers of vast nuclear arsenals. One of Isabel’s aunts had told her about those days during the Cuban Missile Crisis when she had thought that nuclear war was inevitable. She had found herself feeling oddly calm, and had been determined to spend what she imagined were their last days in peace. “I sat and looked at pictures,” she said. “Photographs of college friends. Of our old family house in Mobile. Pictures of the world. I took out our old copies of National Geographic and paged through them, just looking at the world in all its variety; saying goodbye to it, I suppose.”

pages: 202 words: 66,742

The Payoff by Jeff Connaughton


algorithmic trading, bank run, banking crisis, Bernie Madoff, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Flash crash, locking in a profit, London Interbank Offered Rate, London Whale, Long Term Capital Management, naked short selling, Neil Kinnock, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, risk tolerance, Robert Bork, short selling, Silicon Valley, too big to fail, two-sided market, young professional

Then he turned to that day’s news about the discovery of three thousand Soviet troops in Cuba. Biden, almost whispering, said: “Folks, I’m going to let you in on a little secret.” He walked with the microphone in his hand into the crowd, motioning everyone to lean forward to hear his secret. Then he yelled, “Those troops have been in Cuba all along, and everyone knows it!” The crisis was a sham, Biden argued, manufactured by the hawks to kill SALT II. Ever since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, the Soviets had had as many as forty thousand troops in Cuba and had been drawing them down all along. Yes, there were still three thousand infantry troops in Cuba. No matter whether they were instructors or combat troops, they had no assault capability, no helicopters or ships that could deliver them to our shores. Besides, how afraid are we of three thousand Soviets invading Florida or Puerto Rico?

pages: 271 words: 82,159

David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants by Malcolm Gladwell


affirmative action, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, mass incarceration, medical residency, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, RAND corporation, school choice, Silicon Valley

“That’s why he succeeded where others failed. He went out to these unpleasant places, and made sure things worked. He’s this extremely stubborn character.” That’s conscientiousness. But what is the most striking fact about Kamprad’s decision? It’s the year he went to Poland: 1961. The Berlin Wall was going up. The Cold War was at its peak. Within a year, East and West would come to the brink of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The equivalent today would be Walmart setting up shop in North Korea. Most people wouldn’t even think of doing business in the land of the enemy for fear of being branded a traitor. Not Kamprad. He didn’t care a whit for what others thought of him. That’s disagreeableness. Only a very small number of people have the creativity to think of shipping furniture flat and outsourcing in the face of a boycott.

pages: 286 words: 79,601

Great American Hypocrites: Toppling the Big Myths of Republican Politics by Glenn Greenwald


affirmative action, anti-communist, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, national security letter, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith

Apple illustrated how vital war is for an American political leader to prove his “courage” and “strength”: For George Bush, the United States invasion of Panama early this morning constituted a Presidential initiation rite as well as an attempt to achieve specific goals. For better or for worse, most American leaders since World War II have felt a need to demonstrate their willingness to shed blood to protect or advance what they construe as the national interest. John F. Kennedy in the Cuban missile crisis, Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard M. Nixon in South Vietnam, Gerald R. Ford in the Mayaguez affair, Ronald Reagan in Grenada and Lebanon, and now Mr. Bush in Panama—all of them acted in the belief that the American political culture required them to show the world promptly that they carried big sticks. Jimmy Carter did not do it until he sought unsuccessfully to rescue American hostages in Iran late in his term, and politicians of both parties still believe that it cost him dear.

pages: 246 words: 81,843

David and Goliath: The Triumph of the Underdog by Malcolm Gladwell


affirmative action, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, mass incarceration, medical residency, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, RAND corporation, school choice, Silicon Valley

“That’s why he succeeded where others failed. He went out to these unpleasant places, and made sure things worked. He’s this extremely stubborn character.” That’s conscientiousness. But what is the most striking fact about Kamprad’s decision? It’s the year he went to Poland: 1961. The Berlin Wall was going up. The Cold War was at its peak. Within a year, East and West would come to the brink of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The equivalent today would be Walmart setting up shop in North Korea. Most people wouldn’t even think of doing business in the land of the enemy for fear of being branded a traitor. Not Kamprad. He didn’t care a whit for what others thought of him. That’s disagreeableness. Only a very small number of people have the creativity to think of shipping furniture flat and outsourcing in the face of a boycott.

pages: 245 words: 72,391

Alan Partridge: Nomad: Nomad by Alan Partridge


cuban missile crisis, glass ceiling, Neil Kinnock, rolodex, Skype, University of East Anglia

I sometimes worry that growing older has mellowed my hatred of things, and with it my passion, my sharpness. But then a youth TV presenter says ‘could of ’ instead of ‘could have’ and there I am throwing food at the television. My father used to do the same thing, although his food-hurling could be brought on by all manner of things he disliked. From something serious like the US government’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis to something trivial like a black newscaster. Yet despite these quirks we share, passed down from father to son like a collection of World Cup medals accrued from a petrol station via Esso’s Tiger Token scheme, there is a disconnect. I feel like I never truly knew him. By pounding the streets from Norwich to Dungeness, I know that will change. I know it will. Because it will, I know it. 18.

pages: 230 words: 79,229

Respectable: The Experience of Class by Lynsey Hanley

Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, delayed gratification, Etonian, full employment, housing crisis, illegal immigration, invisible hand, liberation theology, low skilled workers, mutually assured destruction, Neil Kinnock, Norman Mailer, Own Your Own Home, Right to Buy, Ronald Reagan, strikebreaker, upwardly mobile, Winter of Discontent

The producer of ‘Two Tribes’, Trevor Horn, recorded the song in a dozen different mixes, each on a separate 12-inch single. The cover of our copy, bought from the Woolies in Chelmsley precinct, featured a statistical breakdown of the nuclear arms race: the number of nuclear-enabled warheads held by the US and USSR, the number of ICBM tests conducted by the two superpowers. There was never a darker time than this. (Though that may just be me: years later I asked my mum what she remembered of the Cuban Missile Crisis, as she was eleven at the time. She said she didn’t really remember it at all.) Hoggart might not have judged pop music so harshly had he not been writing at a point in the mid-fifties when pop music was essentially an unknown quantity and its possibilities still almost wholly unexplored. One of his accusations was that pop music, like pulp fiction, encouraged what he called a ‘tail-chasing evasion of the personality’.

The Sum of All Fears by Tom Clancy


accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Benoit Mandelbrot, British Empire, colonial exploitation, complexity theory, cuban missile crisis, demand response, financial independence, index card, mandelbrot fractal, trade route, uranium enrichment

I need to see some things to finish my work at Kennedy, then I want to find out if I can do the real thing." Jack nodded. That sounded familiar enough. "Clearances?" "TS, SAP/SAR. Those are new. I already have a "secret", because some of my work at Kennedy involved going into some presidential archives, mainly in D.C., but some of the stuff in Boston is still sensitive. I was even part of the team that FOI'd a lot of stuff from the Cuban Missile Crisis." "Dr Nicholas Bledsoe, his work?" "That's right." "I didn't buy all of Nick's conclusions, but that was a hell of a piece of research." Jack raised his mug in salute. Goodley had written nearly half of that monograph, including the conclusions. "What did you take issue with - if I may ask?" "Khrushchev's action was fundamentally irrational. I think - and the record bears this out - that his placing the missiles there was impulsive rather than reasoned."

All Durling knew was what the Secret Service detail had told him. Durling told himself that he had to relax, that he had to keep his head. He looked at his youngest child, a boy only four years old. To be that age again, he'd thought only the day before, to be that age again and be able to grow up in a world where the chance of a major war no longer existed. All the horrors of his youth, the Cuban Missile Crisis that had marked his freshman year in college, his service as a platoon leader in the 8 2nd Airborne, a year of which had been in Vietnam. War experience made Durling a most unusual liberal politician. He hadn't run from it. He'd taken his chances and remembered having two men die in his arms. Just yesterday, he'd looked at his son and thanked God that he wouldn't have to know any of that.

Borstein was not a man accustomed to failure, but failure was what he saw on his map display. "General!" a major called to him. "What is it?" "Picking up some radio and microwave chatter. First guess is that Ivan's alerting his missile regiments. Ditto in some naval bases. Flash traffic outbound from Moscow." "Christ!" Borstein lifted his phone again. "Never done it?" Elliot asked. "Strange but true," Borstein said. "Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Russians never put their ICBMs on alert." "I don't believe it," Fowler snorted. "Never?" "The General's right," Ryan said. "The reason is that their telephone system historically has been in pretty bad shape. I guess they've finally gotten it fixed enough -" "What do you mean?" "Mr President, God is in the details. You send alert messages by voice - we do it that way, and so do the Soviets.

pages: 1,396 words: 245,647

The Strangest Man: The Hidden Life of Paul Dirac, Mystic of the Atom by Graham Farmelo


Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, double helix, Ernest Rutherford, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, gravity well, Henri Poincaré, invention of radio, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Murray Gell-Mann, period drama, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Simon Singh, Solar eclipse in 1919, Stephen Hawking, strikebreaker, University of East Anglia

The tension dropped on 28 October, when the Soviets agreed to remove the missiles in return for concessions from the Americans; it seemed to many – including Dirac, watching the crisis unfold on his television in Princeton and possibly wondering whether he was about to see his third world war – that humanity had been lucky to survive. The planet seemed to be at the mercy of its Dr Strangeloves. Bohr lived just long enough to see the Cuban missile crisis. Three weeks later, after Sunday lunch at home with his wife Margrethe, he went upstairs for a nap and died of heart failure. In a letter of condolence to Margrethe, Dirac said that he was ‘excessively sorry’ to hear of ‘the loss of one of my closest friends’ and recalled his first stay with the Bohrs in Copenhagen in 1926: ‘I was greatly impressed by the wisdom that Niels showed, not only in physics but in all branches of human thought.

Aaserud, F. (1990) Redirecting Science: Niels Bohr, Philanthropy, and the Rise of Nuclear Physics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Annan, N. (1992) Our Age: Portrait of a Generation, London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson. Anon. (1935) The Frustration of Science, foreword by F. Soddy, New York: W. W. Norton. Anon. (1993) Operation Epsilon: The Farm Hall Transcripts, Bristol, Institute of Physics Publishing. Anon. (2001) The Cuban Missile Crisis: Selected Foreign Policy Documents from the Administration of John F. Kennedy, January 1961–November 1962, London: The Stationery Office, pp. 109–34. Anon. (2007) ‘Autism Speaks: The United States Pays Up’, Nature, 448: 628–9. Badash, L. (1985) Kaptiza, Rutherford and the Kremlin, New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press. Baer, H. and Belyaev, A. (eds) (2003) Proceedings of the Dirac Centennial Symposium, London: World Scientific.

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology by Ray Kurzweil


additive manufacturing, AI winter, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Benoit Mandelbrot, Bill Joy: nanobots, bioinformatics, brain emulation, Brewster Kahle, Brownian motion, business intelligence,, call centre, carbon-based life, cellular automata, Claude Shannon: information theory, complexity theory, conceptual framework, Conway's Game of Life, cosmological constant, cosmological principle, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, Dava Sobel, David Brooks, Dean Kamen, disintermediation, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter,, epigenetics, factory automation, friendly AI, George Gilder, Gödel, Escher, Bach, informal economy, information retrieval, invention of the telephone, invention of the telescope, invention of writing, Isaac Newton, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, lifelogging, linked data, Loebner Prize, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, Mikhail Gorbachev, mouse model, Murray Gell-Mann, mutually assured destruction, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, oil shale / tar sands, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, phenotype, premature optimization, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, remote working, reversible computing, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Robert Metcalfe, Rodney Brooks, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, selection bias, semantic web, Silicon Valley, Singularitarianism, speech recognition, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, strong AI, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, Ted Kaczynski, telepresence, The Coming Technological Singularity, Thomas Bayes, transaction costs, Turing machine, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, Y2K, Yogi Berra

These risks are what Nick Bostrom calls "existential risks," which he defines as the dangers in the upper-right quadrant of the following table:18 Biological life on Earth encountered a human-made existential risk for the first time in the middle of the twentieth century with the advent of the hydrogen bomb and the subsequent cold-war buildup of thermonuclear forces. President Kennedy reportedly estimated that the likelihood of an all-out nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis was between 33 and 50 percent.19 The legendary information theorist John von Neumann, who became the chairman of the Air Force Strategic Missiles Evaluation Committee and a government adviser on nuclear strategies, estimated the likelihood of nuclear Armageddon (prior to the Cuban missile crisis) at close to 100 percent.20 Given the perspective of the 1960s what informed observer of those times would have predicted that the world would have gone through the next forty years without another nontest nuclear explosion? Despite the apparent chaos of international affairs we can be grateful for the successful avoidance thus far of the employment of nuclear weapons in war.

pages: 845 words: 197,050

The Gun by C. J. Chivers


air freight, Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, defense in depth, illegal immigration, joint-stock company, Khartoum Gordon, mutually assured destruction, offshore financial centre, Ponzi scheme, RAND corporation, South China Sea, trade route, Transnistria

The nuclear umbrella froze borders in place and discouraged all-out war between the conventional armies stacked in Europe, helping to create conditions in which the Kalashnikov percolated from continent to continent, nation to nation, group to group, man to man, maturing as its numbers grew and its reputation spread into the age’s dominant tool for violence in conflict zones. At first the distribution was piecemeal and incremental; gradually, it became almost unchecked. By the early 1960s, after the Cuban Missile Crisis had startled its participants and as the war in Vietnam was expanding and quickening, the Kremlin and the White House comprehended that their mutual nuclear arsenals had made total war unwinnable. Small wars and proxies would be the means through which the Cold War would be fought. The Kalashnikov Era had arrived. We are living in it still. This book focuses on the most important series of infantry small arms of our time, and as most commonly encountered in the field: the original AK-47 and its derivates, knockoffs, and companion firearms that have flooded armories and arms bazaars around the world and become a primary weapon of guerrillas, terrorists, and many armed criminal gangs.

., 277–78 Côte d’Ivoire, 370 criminals, criminal gangs, 70 AK and AK-type rifles used by, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13–14, 17, 268, 340, 378n, 387, 408–10, 413 illegal-arms transfers and, 371 and Thompson submachine gun production and distribution, 233–36, 279 Crocker, Ryan, 388 Cuba: and AK and AK-type rifle production and distribution, 9, 340, 406 FAL rifle distribution and, 364 Gatling guns purchased by, 53 in Spanish-American War, 90, 93–95, 424n Cuban Missile Crisis, 5 CUCKWAGON, 20 Culver, Richard O., Jr., 266–67, 321, 329 Cummings, Samuel, 354–56, 358, 363, 369 Curran, William J., 297 Custer, George A.: Gatling guns rejected by, 60–61, 64, 92 in Indian Wars, 58–64 Czechoslovakia, 174, 214, 216, 348–49 AK-type rifle production resisted by, 281n, 434n Prague Spring in, 348 standard rifle of, 340n, 349 Velvet Revolution of, 365 Daoud, Abu, 443n De Cristoforis, Tomasso, 82 Defense Department, U.S., 254–59, 268–71, 274–75, 413 and AK-47 design and development, 270, 280 and AK-47 production and distribution, 251, 259, 265, 268 ammunition and, 255–57 AR-15 and, 274, 280, 284, 288–89, 292, 296 on asymmetric war, 14 atomic bomb and, 144 M-16 and, 269–71, 292–93, 295, 303–5, 307, 313, 319, 323, 330–34, 415–16 purchase prices of AK rifles for, 386 systems analysis in, 271 see also War Department, U.S.

pages: 687 words: 209,474

Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East by Michael B. Oren


Boycotts of Israel, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, European colonialism, friendly fire, open economy, Yom Kippur War

Al-Sallal’s appeal found Nasser still reeling from the UAR’s dissolution and the collapse of his economic policies, and fearing for the loyalty of some of his senior army officers. The latter, by providing tactical support to al-Sallal’s troops, presented Nasser with a fait accompli. He accepted it, though, deeming Yemen a good place for occupying the army’s attention, as well as for drubbing his Saudi rivals and even for harassing Britain’s colony in Aden. Khrushchev, eager to avenge his recent embarrassment in the Cuban missile crisis, also gave his blessing.26 Thus began an entanglement so futile and fierce that the imminent Vietnam War could have easily been dubbed America’s Yemen.27 Prisoners were routinely executed, bodies mutilated, entire villages wiped out. Egyptian forces bombed royalist depots in Saudi Arabia and, for the first time in the history of any Arab army, unleashed poison gas. Besides igniting the previously cold conflict between Arab “progressives” and “reactionaries,” the war also soured the all-too-brief honeymoon between Egypt and the United States.

While Egypt was willing to discuss the possibility of reviving the Armistice and its machinery, it rejected any measure—the marking of the border, for example—that granted Israel recognition or detracted from the state of belligerency. A cigar-smoking Thant allowed Riad to finish before presenting his idea for a two-to-three week freeze in the situation: Egypt would not blockade the Straits, but neither would Israel try traversing them. This moratorium—“along the lines of the Cuban [missile] crisis”—would afford time for a specially appointed UN mediator to work out a peaceable solution. Riad reacted skeptically. The government could show no hesitation to its people, he asserted, and especially not to the army, which was determined to defend the Arab cause. The message U Thant brought from Eshkol, that Israel would act militarily to reopen the Straits, had no impact on the foreign minister.

The Chomsky Reader by Noam Chomsky


anti-communist, Bolshevik threat, British Empire, business climate, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, European colonialism, feminist movement, Howard Zinn, interchangeable parts, land reform, land tenure, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, strikebreaker, theory of mind, Thomas L Friedman, union organizing, War on Poverty, zero-sum game, éminence grise

In the 1950s, liberal economists in the United States denounced the Eisenhower administration for insufficient military spending, testifying before Congress that it was frittering away American affluence in “indulgences, luxuries, and frivolities” while the United States faced “the possibility of annihilation or humiliation” (Walter Heller), and calling for “accelerating and enlarging our defense effort” rather than diverting military resources to consumer goods for people who already have a “frivolous standard of living” (James Tobin). When the Kennedy administration came to power, it followed their advice, using a faked “missile gap” as a propaganda device and relying on massive military expenditures as a mechanism for economic growth, thus setting off the arms race of the 1960s, accelerated by the needless humiliation of Khrushchev at the time of the Cuban missile crisis. Without the benefit of Keynes, the fascist states of the 1930s also proved that the “new economics” works, as economies were stimulated by programs of rearmament. In principle, other methods are available, but a look at the class character of the major industrial powers helps to explain why governments have so commonly turned to production of waste (primarily, armaments) and bribes for the wealthy in their efforts to stimulate a sluggish economy.

It was therefore difficult to make concessions or to give ground to the Soviets, a matter which indirectly affected Vietnam. Anything, anywhere, that “was, or could be interpreted to be a weak U.S. response, only strengthened the pressure to hold on in Vietnam.” Chester Cooper believes, however, that “Kennedy’s foreign policy stance was given an added fillip in late 1962 following his dramatic success” in the Cuban missile crisis. Vietnam then provided an opportunity to prove to Peking and Moscow that their policy of “wars of liberation” was dangerous and unpromising, and also “provided both a challenge and an opportunity to test the new doctrines” of counterinsurgency. Thus whether the United States stance with respect to its great-power rival is defensive or not, the determination to win in Indochina is fortified.

pages: 708 words: 176,708

The WikiLeaks Files: The World According to US Empire by Wikileaks


affirmative action, anti-communist, banking crisis, battle of ideas, Boycotts of Israel, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, central bank independence, Chelsea Manning, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, drone strike, Edward Snowden, energy security, energy transition, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, experimental subject, F. W. de Klerk, facts on the ground, failed state, financial innovation, Food sovereignty, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, future of journalism, high net worth, invisible hand, Julian Assange, liberal world order, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, Mohammed Bouazizi, Monroe Doctrine, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, Philip Mirowski, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, statistical model, structural adjustment programs, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game, éminence grise

This was the same model of using military power to create client regimes in lieu of direct political rule that would be deployed by the United States across other parts of Latin America in the following century.82 It was in 1903 that the US first “negotiated” control of forty-five square miles around Guantánamo Bay as a base for US Navy ships, which stood firm until 1959—and even after that the Castro government that overthrew the regime was unable to compel the US to leave the territory. Following Kennedy’s futile attempts to crush the Cuban revolution during the Bay of Pigs fiasco, and the near-miss of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, the United States decided to create a permanent Marine base in Guantánamo, ostensibly to protect the United States against a Cuban attack. Here it sat, almost forgotten, until 2001. The “war on terror” was launched with the specific intention of accumulating thousands of captives and interrogating them over a long period. And since the interrogation had to take place offshore, where—so the rationale went—detainees would not be protected by the US legal system, Guantánamo Bay provided an ideal location.83 In January 2002, a military prison was opened in the base, consisting of three distinct areas, known as Camp Delta, Camp Iguana, and Camp X-Ray.

Nicholas 289–91 Burns, William 214–15, 217–18, 219, 230, 245–6, 251, 329–30 Bush, George 46, 75, 444–5, 479–80 Bush, George W. 39–40, 77, 81, 99, 108–9, 113, 156, 159, 169, 481–2, 536; and Afghanistan 369, 386, 387, 389; Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty withdrawal 212, 224; and Brazil 171; China policy 455; and Costa Rica 170; and Ecuador 177; and the ICC 161–2, 177; Iran policy 339–40; and Iraq 354; and North Korea 396–7; Southeast Asia policy 445; START I Treaty 231; Syria policy 320; Turkish policy 244–5 Bush Six investigation 207–10 Business Insider 241 Butler, Martin 487–8 Butler, Smedley 53 Bybee, Jay 108, 207–10 Bybee memo, the 108–9 Cablegate cables 9, 80, 145, 155, 156, 181, 182, 184 Calipari, Nicola, murder 200–1 Cameron, David 47 Campbell, Kurt 400, 412–19 Camp David accords 28, 39, 45 Camp Mercury 103 Canada 538 Caribbean, the 483, 534–5 Carney, Tim 512 Carter Cables, the 145, 157 Carter, Jimmy 29, 63, 120, 474–7 Carter Ruck 114–15 Cartwright, James 423 Castro, Fidel 491, 515 Caulfield, John 521–2, 530–1 censorship 11 Center for a New American Security (CNAS) 400 Cerén, Salvador Sánchez 492 Chalabi, Ahmed 83–4 Chamorro, Violeta 58 Charter of Economic Rights and Duties of States 138 Chassy, Bruce 188–9 Chávez, Hugo 72, 125, 129, 491, 497; containment policy 538–41; coup attempt against, 2002 30, 59–60, 515–16; death 525, 545; obsession with 515; Petrocaribe program 530–4; popularity 522; radical populist allies 541–4; threat 527–8 Chechen War, Second 215 Cheney, Dick 77, 99 CHEROKEE restriction 13 Chile 49, 516; Article 98 agreements 172; economic reform 69–70; human rights 68–9; ICC-related sanctions 172–3; the Kissinger cables 65–70; Pinochet coup 57, 66–8 China 418, 436, 444, 447; and the Philippines 453–5, 456–7; rise of 447–9, 450, 450–8; US suspicion of 451–5, 470 Christian Science Monitor 216 CIA: and Chile 66–8; coup d’état sponsorship 17–18, 484, 516; covert operations 30; and Ecuador 501–2; in Haiti 64; human rights abuses 75; and Iran 331; in Latin America 51, 57; Omar abduction 206–8; Operation Phoenix 102; overthrow of Mossadegh government 28; Project X 102; rendition 14; and the State Department 4; and Turkey 239–40; use of torture 12, 14, 96, 97, 101–3, 105–9, 206, 386–7; in Venezuela 516 civilians: in Afghanistan 382, 384–5; casualty numbers 86, 88, 89; collateral damage 78, 89–93, 382; definition 12, 87–9; disregard for 76; drone strikes 88–9; killings 86–8; military-aged men 87–9, 91–2; targeting 89–93 Clark, Warren 479 classification levels and markings 6, 6–8, 7–8, 149, 150–2 climate change 469 Clinton, Bill 161, 445, 448, 480 Clinton, Hillary 13, 24, 40, 41, 70–3, 405, 490–1 cluster bombs 378–81 Cockburn, Alexander 306 Cold War 45, 50, 55, 60, 62, 182, 183, 212, 235, 416, 433, 442–4, 527 collateral damage 78 collateral murder 350–2 Colom, Álvaro 535–7 Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs 8–9 Combatant Status Review Tribunals 100 communications, development of 2–3 Communism, threat of 44, 55, 63, 101–2 Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act 478, 479 Congo 28 Congressional Research Reports 14, 15 Congressional Research Service (CRS) 169, 177, 368–9, 371–2 Contras, the 57–58, 306, 492 Contreras-Sweet, Maria 492 conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) 233 Conventional Trident Modification program 233 Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) 379 Copenhagen, Climate Conference 469 corporate corruption 113, 113–17 Correa, Rafael 125–32, 498–503, 516, 541 Cossio, Mario 509 Costa Rica 170 Coughlin, Dan 533 courts, use of WikiLeaks materials 9–10 Crimea 187, 217 Croatia 163 Cserveny, Vilmos 340 Cuba 26, 50, 51, 52, 98, 486 Cuban Missile Crisis 98 Cuban Revolution 57 cyber-war 80 Czech Republic 225, 227 Daalder, Ivo 196–7 Daanoy, Norman 466–7 Dagan, Meir 251, 289–91, 294–5 Damascus Declaration 314, 315 Dasht-E-Leili massacre, Afghanistan 392–4 Davutoğlu, Ahmet 248–51, 260–1 Dayton, Keith 277 Deauville Partnership 47–8 debt, international 45, 123–5 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea 450 Defense Planning Guidance, 1992 444–5 Defense Trilateral Talks (DTT) 406–7 Déjoie, Louis 62, 63 de Klerk, F.

pages: 797 words: 227,399

Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century by P. W. Singer


agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Atahualpa, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bill Joy: nanobots, blue-collar work, borderless world, clean water, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, cuban missile crisis, digital map,, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Firefox, Francisco Pizarro, Frank Gehry, friendly fire, game design, George Gilder, Google Earth, Grace Hopper, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of gunpowder, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, Isaac Newton, Jacques de Vaucanson, job automation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Law of Accelerating Returns, Mars Rover, Menlo Park, New Urbanism, pattern recognition, private military company, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, strong AI, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Wisdom of Crowds, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, Wall-E, Yogi Berra

But, with just minutes to spare, the military figured out that the Soviets had not attacked; instead of flames from intercontinental ballistic missiles flying at the United States, the computer had detected the rising moon. It is fortunate for all humankind that this incident happened in October 1960, not two years later, which would have placed the computer’s mistake right in the middle of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when fingers were on more of a hair trigger. Such a narrowly averted crisis sounds like something out of the movies, but these Hollywood scenarios played out far too often in reality. On November 9, 1979, a real-life version of the movie WarGames occurred, when a test program was mistakenly loaded into the actual missile warning system. The program contained war games simulating missile launches.

Joint Economic Committee of Conover, David Cooper, Martin Corbett, Julian Stafford Cormorant (drone) Cortés, Hernán counterinsurgency Counter Rocket Artillery Mortar (CRAM) counterterrorism AI and data mining and ID at a distance and as manhunt new technologies and TIA program and see also terrorism CRAM (Counter Rocket Artillery Mortar) Creative Robots Crécy, battle of Crenshaw, Lewis Crichton, Michael Crimean War Cruise, Tom cruise missiles Crusher (robot) Cuba Cuban missile crisis Curveball (Iraqi defector) Custer, George Armstrong cyberglove cyberpunk movement CyberRider cyborgs Daley, Richard Darfur Darman, Richard DARPATech Darwin, Charles “Darwin Among the Machines” (Butler) Darwin’s Radio (Bear) Daschle, Tom da Vinci robotic system Davis, Joshua Davis, Mike decision making AI systems and Deep Blue (computer) Defence Evaluation and Research Agency Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) AugCog program of Brain-Interface Project of budget of critics of Grand Challenge and Integrated Battle Command of mission of PETE electronic assistant of TIA program of Urbanscape project of Defense Department, U.S.

pages: 289 words: 112,697

The new village green: living light, living local, living large by Stephen Morris


back-to-the-land, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, cleantech, collective bargaining, Columbine, Community Supported Agriculture, computer age, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, discovery of penicillin, distributed generation, energy security, energy transition, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, Firefox, index card, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Kevin Kelly, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, McMansion, Menlo Park, Negawatt, off grid, peak oil, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review

She was diagnosed with breast cancer midway through the writing of Silent Spring and died just two years after its publication. Institutional distrust is so prevalent today (Did someone say “weapons of mass destruction?”), it can be difficult to recreate the reservoir of faith that existed at the time. We had prevailed in the Great War and our lads returned to unprecedented prosperity. Two terms of a placid presidency under Ike gave way to the excitement of Camelot. We survived the Cuban Missile Crisis, but the jury is still out on whether we have survived Silent Spring. The publication of Silent Spring caused an uproar from the entrenched establishment of chemical companies and regulatory agencies. Science and technology had become synonymous with progress during the era when Everything Went Right. Suddenly the miracle chemicals with the unpronounceable names were no longer the beacons of modernity and prosperity, but rather the threats to life as we knew it.

pages: 304 words: 96,930

Starbucked: A Double Tall Tale of Caffeine, Commerce, and Culture by Taylor Clark


Berlin Wall, commoditize, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, deskilling, Edmond Halley, fear of failure, Honoré de Balzac, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, McJob, McMansion, Naomi Klein, Ray Oldenburg, Ronald Reagan, The Great Good Place, trade route

The idea didn’t fly because of one major dissenter: the United States, buyer of a quarter of the world’s beans, which didn’t want to impede the free market. Fidel Castro made the United States reconsider. In 1959, Castro rose to power in Cuba, establishing the first Communist state in the Western Hemisphere. Three years later, after he helped terrify America with the prospect of nuclear assault during the Cuban missile crisis, U.S. leaders realized they had to do something to stop other impoverished Latin American nations from turning to Communism. Senator Hubert Humphrey declared in 1962 that maintaining stable coffee prices was “a matter of life and death,” adding that “Castroism will spread like a plague through Latin America unless something is done about the prices of raw materials produced there.” Suddenly filled with this brotherly spirit, the United States and other consuming nations agreed to the first International Coffee Agreement that same year; the ICO was created to oversee the accord.

pages: 325 words: 99,983

Globish: How the English Language Became the World's Language by Robert McCrum


Alistair Cooke, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, call centre, colonial rule, credit crunch, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, Etonian, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, invention of movable type, invention of writing, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, jimmy wales, knowledge economy, Livingstone, I presume, Martin Wolf, Naomi Klein, Norman Mailer, Parag Khanna, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Republic of Letters, Ronald Reagan, sceptred isle, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, Steven Pinker, the new new thing, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transcontinental railway, upwardly mobile

French and European fury against the ‘Anglo-Saxons’ was only intensified by the realisation that, among the new post-war generation of baby boomers, Anglo-American culture was exceedingly desirable. It was probably a futile protest; today it has been calculated that about one-twentieth of day-to-day French vocabulary is composed of anglicismes. For example, a McDonald’s hamburger is simply a ‘McD’. After the Berlin Wall and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, the Cold War moved into a more stable phase, while the United States (but not Britain) fought the threat of Communism in South-East Asia. Britain, meanwhile, had divested itself of almost all its colonial possessions, letting the ‘winds of change’ blow through Africa. Within a decade the ‘self-liquidating empire’ had exchanged hard political power for soft cultural influence. Mass tourism replaced imperialism as an engine of global linguistic transactions.

pages: 250 words: 87,503

The Futurist: The Life and Films of James Cameron by Rebecca Winters Keegan


call centre, Colonization of Mars, cuban missile crisis, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, the payments system

It determines the very future we face. 1. A BOY AND HIS BRAIN The Beginning of the End The end of the world was coming. And he was eight. That’s when James Cameron found a pamphlet with instructions for building a civilian fallout shelter on the coffee table in his family’s living room in Chippawa, Ontario, a quaint village on the Canadian shore of Niagara Falls. It was 1962, the year of the Cuban missile crisis, and Philip and Shirley Cameron felt they had reason to be concerned about the bomb—the Camerons lived just a mile and a half from the falls, a major power source for communities on both sides of the international border. But for their oldest son, discovering the brochure was a life-changing epiphany. Prior to that moment, the boy’s only real care in the world had been getting home on his bike before the streetlights flickered on, the family rule.

pages: 342 words: 95,013

The Zenith Angle by Bruce Sterling


airport security, Burning Man, cuban missile crisis, digital map, glass ceiling, Grace Hopper, half of the world's population has never made a phone call, Iridium satellite, market bubble, new economy, packet switching, pirate software, profit motive, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, thinkpad, V2 rocket, Y2K

They had the same military card tables and folding steel chairs. You never knew, day to day, who your new neighbors would be. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Postal Service even . . . They’d show up with plastic-coated briefing books and bewildered expressions, to spend two weeks hiding underground. The Vault had been built in 1962, in a nation still queasy from the Cuban Missile Crisis. It stayed secret because it had been built quietly, in a big hurry, by a very small group of top-notch fallout-shelter contractors. The Vault was located in the Alleghenies, just over the border of West Virginia. It had a rather delightful and well-equipped hotel sitting on top of it, to camouflage it from the Russkies and the American press. The Vault had successfully stayed unknown to the world for forty solid years.

pages: 361 words: 111,500

Geography of Bliss by Eric Weiner


Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, call centre, cuban missile crisis, Exxon Valdez, happiness index / gross national happiness, indoor plumbing, Mikhail Gorbachev, place-making, Pluto: dwarf planet, science of happiness, Silicon Valley, Transnistria, union organizing

Not so with us Americans. We are able to acquire many of the things that we think will make us happy and therefore suffer the confusion and disappointment when they do not. Over the past fifty years, America’s happiness levels have remained remarkably stable, unperturbed by cataclysmic events. After the attacks of September 11, 2001, researchers found no marked decrease in U.S. happiness levels. The 1962 Cuban missile crisis precipitated a brief increase in national happiness. Most people of the world derive happiness from the quotidian. Historian Will Durant has said, “History has been too often a picture of the bloody stream. The [real] history of civilization is a record of what happened on the banks.” We remain a profoundly optimistic nation. Two thirds of Americans say they are hopeful about the future.

pages: 361 words: 81,068

The Internet Is Not the Answer by Andrew Keen


3D printing, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Airbnb, AltaVista, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Bay Area Rapid Transit, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Black Swan, Bob Geldof, Burning Man, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Colonization of Mars, computer age, connected car, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, disintermediation, Donald Davies, Downton Abbey, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Gehry, Frederick Winslow Taylor, frictionless, full employment, future of work, gig economy, global village, Google bus, Google Glasses, Hacker Ethic, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, index card, informal economy, information trail, Innovator's Dilemma, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Lean Startup, libertarian paternalism, lifelogging, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, Metcalfe’s law, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nonsequential writing, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, Occupy movement, packet switching, PageRank, Paul Graham, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer rental, Peter Thiel, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Potemkin village, precariat, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, smart cities, Snapchat, social web, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, TaskRabbit, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, the medium is the message, the new new thing, Thomas L Friedman, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber for X, urban planning, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, working poor, Y Combinator

“Sputnik was proof of Russia’s ability to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles, said the pessimists, and it was just a matter of time before the Soviets would threaten the United States.”22 The Cold War was at its chilliest in the late fifties and early sixties. In 1960, the Soviets shot down an American U-2 surveillance plane over the Urals. On August 17, 1961, the Berlin Wall, the Cold War’s most graphic image of the division between East and West, was constructed overnight by the German Democratic Republic’s communist regime. In 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis sparked a terrifying contest of nuclear brinksmanship between Kennedy and Khrushchev. Nuclear war, once unthinkable, was being reimagined as a logistical challenge by game theorists at military research institutes like the RAND Corporation, the Santa Monica, California–based think tank set up by the US Air Force in 1964 to “provide intellectual muscle”23 for American nuclear planners. By the late 1950s, as the United States developed hair-trigger nuclear arsenals that could be launched in a matter of minutes, it was becoming clear that one of the weakest links in the American military system lay with its long-distance communications network.

pages: 341 words: 89,986

Bricks & Mortals: Ten Great Buildings and the People They Made by Tom Wilkinson


Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, double helix, experimental subject, false memory syndrome, financial independence, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Google Glasses, housing crisis, Kitchen Debate, Mahatma Gandhi, mass incarceration, megacity, neoliberal agenda, New Urbanism, traveling salesman, trickle-down economics, Upton Sinclair, urban planning

Eventually the Fordists won the argument, to the lasting economic detriment of the USSR, which could not sustain American levels of consumerism. But it seemed for a while that it might: this was the tantalising era of Red Plenty, to borrow Francis Spufford’s name for the brief period when the USSR seemed to be overtaking the capitalist West. These days, with the ignominious collapse of the Soviet empire still fresh in our memories, we tend to forget that there was a moment – between the launch of Sputnik in 1957 and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 – when Russia seemed like it might win the Cold War. The Soviets had embraced and even surpassed Western technological achievements; they were winning the space race (Yuri Gagarin went into orbit in 1961); their economy was growing faster than any other bar Japan’s; they were producing an incredible number of engineers and scientists; and they were leading the field in cybernetics in order to create – it was desperately hoped – a microchip-planned economy.

pages: 294 words: 81,292

Our Final Invention: Artificial Intelligence and the End of the Human Era by James Barrat


3D printing, AI winter, Amazon Web Services, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Automated Insights, Bayesian statistics, Bernie Madoff, Bill Joy: nanobots, brain emulation, cellular automata, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, cloud computing, cognitive bias, commoditize, computer vision, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Danny Hillis, data acquisition, don't be evil, drone strike, Extropian, finite state, Flash crash, friendly AI, friendly fire, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, Loebner Prize, lone genius, mutually assured destruction, natural language processing, Nicholas Carr, optical character recognition, PageRank, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, prisoner's dilemma, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, semantic web, Silicon Valley, Singularitarianism, Skype, smart grid, speech recognition, statistical model, stealth mode startup, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, Stuxnet, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, Thomas Bayes, traveling salesman, Turing machine, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero day

If a machine could make itself smarter, then the improved machine would be even better at making itself smarter, and so on. In the tumultuous 1960s leading up to his creating the intelligence explosion concept, he already might have been thinking about the kinds of problems an intelligent machine could help with. There were no more hostile German U-boats to sink, but there was the hostile Soviet Union, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the assassination of President Kennedy, and the proxy war between the United States and China, fought across Southeast Asia. Man skated toward the brink of extinction—it seemed time for a new Colossus. In Speculations, Good wrote: [Computer pioneer] B. V. Bowden stated … that there is no point in building a machine with the intelligence of a man, since it is easier to construct human brains by the usual method … This shows that highly intelligent people can overlook the “intelligence explosion.”

pages: 313 words: 95,361

The Vast Unknown: America's First Ascent of Everest by Broughton Coburn


Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, medical residency, mutually assured destruction, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, upwardly mobile

From each member, Siri extracted blood samples to establish baselines for levels of plasma iron, red cell volume, and erythropoietin, a hormone that controls red blood cell production. While Siri was sealed in the decompression chamber, the United States was teetering on the brink of war. U.S. intelligence had discovered that the Soviet Union had provided Cuba with nuclear missiles capable of striking the Eastern Seaboard of the United States within minutes. The Cuban Missile Crisis had begun. Perhaps it was just as well, some climbers felt, that they were leaving the United States for a few months. What better place to seek refuge and safety than high in the Himalaya? Chapter 9 To the Other Side of the Earth The first pitch was the absolute limit of human possibility. The second pitch was even harder. But, overcoming all, we attained to the place where the hand of man has never set foot.

pages: 322 words: 88,197

Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World by Steven Johnson


Ada Lovelace, Alfred Russel Wallace, Antoine Gombaud: Chevalier de Méré, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Book of Ingenious Devices, Buckminster Fuller, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, colonial exploitation, computer age, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Drosophila, Edward Thorp, Fellow of the Royal Society, game design, global village, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, HyperCard, invention of air conditioning, invention of the printing press, invention of the telegraph, Islamic Golden Age, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, Jacques de Vaucanson, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, land value tax, Landlord’s Game, lone genius, mass immigration, megacity, Minecraft, moral panic, Murano, Venice glass, music of the spheres, Necker cube, New Urbanism, Oculus Rift, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer,, placebo effect, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, profit motive, QWERTY keyboard, Ray Oldenburg, spice trade, spinning jenny, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, talking drums, the built environment, The Great Good Place, the scientific method, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, trade route, Turing machine, Turing test, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, Victor Gruen, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, white flight, white picket fence, Whole Earth Catalog, working poor, Wunderkammern

(Antheil later wondered if the musical analogy hurt their cause with the hardheaded military analysts: “‘My god,’ I can see them saying, ‘we shall put a player piano in a torpedo,’” he wrote.) But the idea of frequency hopping was too good to disappear forever in the vaults of classified patents. An updated version of Antheil and Lamarr’s invention was implemented on navy ships during the Cuban missile crisis. Today, frequency hopping has evolved into the spread-spectrum technology used by numerous essential wireless systems, including cell-phone networks, Bluetooth, and Wi-Fi. — George Antheil correctly foresaw the extraordinary explosion of new sounds that the age of electricity promised, though he may have been a bit shortsighted about the data storage technology those sounds would employ.

I, Partridge: We Need to Talk About Alan by Steve Coogan


call centre, Celtic Tiger, citation needed, cuban missile crisis, late fees, means of production, negative equity, University of East Anglia, young professional

Yet miraculously, when I went down to breakfast the next morning, there was no mention of the bitter war of words that had waged so fiercely just hours before. The nightmare that had threatened to rip my world apart like an experienced chef portioning up a ball of mozzarella had somehow been averted. It was 25 October 1962, and on the other side of the Atlantic, President ‘JFK’ Kennedy had just pulled the world back from the brink of nuclear war. Could I just have experienced my own personal Cuban Missile Crisis? Yes, I could have. And so, in summary, mine was a childhood of undeniable hardship – a chilling and far-from-delicious cocktail of neglect, solitude, domestic strife, and abuse.19 I was, if you like, A Child Called It. This was Alan’s Ashes. A protagonist dealt a really shoddy hand by hard-hearted parents. (They’re dead now and my mum’s sister Valerie, who disputes my version of events pretty vociferously, has gone medically demented so I’m really the gospel here.)

Rogue States by Noam Chomsky


anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, capital controls, collective bargaining, colonial rule, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, deskilling, Edward Snowden, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, floating exchange rates, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, land reform, liberation theology, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, new economy, oil shock, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, strikebreaker, structural adjustment programs, Tobin tax, union organizing, Washington Consensus

North America, mainly the US, was by far the major producer of oil, and remained so until about 1970, but Venezuela was an important oil resource, one of the biggest in the world—in fact, the biggest single exporter until 1970, and still the biggest exporter to the United States. So kicking the British out of there was very important. Venezuela also had other resources, such as iron, and US corporations enriched themselves in Venezuela for decades—and still do—while the US supported a series of murderous dictators to keep the people in line. The “Kennedy tapes,” the secret tapes of the Cuban missile crisis, are not all that revealing since almost everything in there had already come out in one way or another, but they do reveal a few new things. One of the new things is an explanation of one of the reasons the Kennedy brothers, Robert and John F., were concerned about missiles in Cuba. They were concerned that they might be a deterrent to a US invasion of Venezuela, which they thought might be necessary because the situation there was getting out of hand.

pages: 327 words: 88,121

The Vanishing Neighbor: The Transformation of American Community by Marc J. Dunkelman


Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, assortative mating, Berlin Wall, big-box store, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, Broken windows theory, call centre, clean water, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, David Brooks, delayed gratification, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Santayana, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, global supply chain, global village, helicopter parent, if you build it, they will come, impulse control, income inequality, invention of movable type, Jane Jacobs, John Markoff, Khyber Pass, Louis Pasteur, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, McMansion, Nate Silver, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, Occupy movement, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, Richard Florida, rolodex, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the medium is the message, Thomas L Friedman, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, urban decay, urban planning, Walter Mischel, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

The pervasive fear that compelled the authorities to shutter the Boston region in the aftermath of 2013’s Marathon bombing speaks to the sense of vulnerability Americans still feel, particularly as pernicious ideas that were once kept safely offshore are now accessible across the sea of new digital media. The specter of a random attack rarely escapes the rational mind—and for good reason. Nevertheless, we ought to put our newfound sense of vulnerability in the proper perspective. Although jihadists menace our sense of security, it’s difficult to equate the perception of our susceptability today with the danger evident during Cold War flashpoints like the Cuban missile crisis. Americans had good reason to be frightened when grainy videos of Osama bin Laden were rebroadcast repeatedly on cable news networks. But al Qaeda’s capacity for destruction—to pinpoint a few choice targets—cannot be compared to Nikita Khrushchev’s nuclear arsenal, which pointed thousands of warheads at America’s metropolitan centers. Frightening as terrorism may be, the prospect of World War Three was, in practice, much more menacing.14 The diminution of danger doesn’t end there.

pages: 294 words: 87,986

4th Rock From the Sun: The Story of Mars by Nicky Jenner

3D printing, Alfred Russel Wallace, Astronomia nova, cuban missile crisis, Elon Musk, game design, hive mind, invention of the telescope, Kickstarter, On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres, placebo effect, Pluto: dwarf planet, retrograde motion, selection bias, silicon-based life, Skype, Stephen Hawking, technoutopianism

Sputnik 22 either burned up while stabilising in orbit or saw the upper section of the spacecraft (known as an ‘upper stage’) explode after it began to burn its thrusters and manoeuvre to a Mars-bound trajectory. Sputnik 22 broke up into numerous smaller pieces, many of which stayed in orbit around our planet for several days. The launch took place on 24 October 1962 – probably the worst possible timing for the Soviet Union to be playing with rockets and causing mysterious explosions. That month saw the US and Soviet Union enter the Cuban Missile Crisis. The debris from the Sputnik 22 failure was actually detected by the US and caused a spike of fear over whether it might have been part of a Soviet missile attack. Just one week later, the Soviet Union tried its luck again with the appropriately named Mars 1 spacecraft, followed a few days after that by Sputnik 24 (also Korabl 13). Sputnik 24 was the most ambitious mission yet. Although the Soviet Union hadn’t yet mastered the fly-by, Sputnik 24 was designed to actually land on the Martian surface.

pages: 1,145 words: 310,655

1967: Israel, the War, and the Year That Transformed the Middle East by Tom Segev


affirmative action, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Boycotts of Israel, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, distributed generation, friendly fire, full employment, ghettoisation, illegal immigration, invisible hand, mass immigration, open borders, Ronald Reagan, Yom Kippur War, young professional

If they did not act immediately, Israel might lose the war and there would be thousands of casualties. He insisted that Israel should no longer comply with Fortas’s request, particularly as the week he had asked for was coming to an end. “The Americans aren’t going shoot at us,” Dayan promised, and described the demand to keep waiting as “stupidity.” Begin suggested sending Johnson the speech given by President Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis. Minister Yosef Burg brought up Chamberlain and Hitler, and Allon said, predictably, “Better they condemn us alive than eulogize us at our grave.” Dayan reported that the Egyptians were planning to seize Eilat: “I find it very difficult to see how we will stand up to that.” Nasser was now essentially a presence in Jordan, too. The Jordanians might invade Jerusalem. “What if they send a commando battalion to carry out carnage in the heart of Jerusalem?”

See Palmah trilateral pact of 1956, 148, 241 Broadcasting Authority, Israeli, 555 Brom, Haim, 393, 405 Bronstein, Amnon, 463, 468 Brotherhood, The, 519n Brown, Arieh, 404 Brunn, Gabi, 374–75 Bruno, Michael, 528 Buber, Martin, 74 Buch, Ehud, 154 Bul, 93, 214n Bull, General Odd, 193, 195, 209, 399 Six-Day War, 340, 346–47, 351, 508 looting of residence, 410 Bunche, Ralph, 11, 171n, 193 Bundy, McGeorge, 331, 387 Burg, Yosef, 275, 335 Burstein, Mike, 222n Café Kassit, Tel Aviv, 9 Café Roval, Tel Aviv, 9 California (restaurant), Tel Aviv, 9, 11, 13, 62 Callas, Maria, 118 Canada, proposed emigration of Arab refugees to, 538 Candid Camera, 27 Capucci, Bishop Hilarion, 517–18, 519 Carmel, Moshe peace negotiations and the future of the Occupied Territories, 505 the three weeks leading to the Six-Day War, 235, 240, 273, 275, 290 Carmiel, Israel, 90 Carmon, David, 580n Carmon, Colonel David, 202–3, 259 Carrot and the Stick, The (Gazit), 473n Castro, Fidel, 103n, 146 CBS, 28 Central Bureau of Statistics, Israeli, 528, 537 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 253, 257, 259–60 Israel’s decision to go to war and, 329–30, 331 Chagall, Marc, 174n, 305 Chamberlain, Neville, 284, 335 Chaplin, Charlie, 116 chemical warfare, prospect of, 239, 243, 288, 297, 332, 338 Chen, David, 498 Chen printing house, 496 Chief Military Rabbinate, 465n Chief Rabbinate, 168, 286 Chizik, Uri, 372, 374, 398, 399 Chouraqui, Andre, 64 Churchill, Winston, 306 grandson of, 280, 327 Chuvakhin, Dimitri, 201, 230, 267, 268, 274, 292, 399 Clifford, Clark, 326 Coca-Cola, 109–11, 574 Cochin Jews, 143 Cohen, Benjamin, 366 Cohen, Geula, 94, 134, 221–22 Sharon interview, 440, 451 Cohen, Justice Haim, 99 Cohen, Mihal, 99 Cohen, Rivka, 420, 428, 447 Cohen, Sheldon S., 121, 304 Cohen, Yaakiv, 147 Cohen, Yaffa, 54 Cohen, Yosef, 198, 200 Comay, Michael, 539 Committee for the West Bank, 469n Communist party, 95, 157 martial law and, 74 Complete Eshkol Jokes, 96–97 Concentration (real estate board game), 180 Conference of Presidents, 124 Connery, Sean, 440 “Conquering the Land as a Moral Act,” 181 Crusaders, 298 Cuban missile crisis, 335 cultural life, 28–30, 32 Dachau concentration camp, 533 Daf, 387 Dajani family, 485n Dakar (Israeli submarine), 448 “Danger of Hitler Is Returning, The,” 284 Danin, Ezra, 532 Danon, Dafna, 117, 118 Danon, David, 117 Daoud, Colonel, 346, 508 Davar, 3, 6, 33, 90, 101, 131–32, 134–35, 136, 217, 381, 442, 523 Davar Leyeladim, 160–61 “Helicopter Campaign,” 439 David, King, tomb of, 7, 97 Davis, Uri, 74, 282 Dayan, Devorah, 35, 334 Dayan, Moshe, 5, 89, 183, 231, 233, 268–70, 419, 439, 560n Arab plan to assassinate, 506 Arab refugees and, 526, 531, 537, 540, 541n, 542 birth of, 471 childhood of, 35 demilitarized zones and, 193 described, 268, 318, 332, 361–62, 391, 470–72, 478–79 Eshkol’s relationship with, 125, 313, 316, 320, 361, 370, 391, 414, 548–50 free movement in two parts of Jerusalem and, 435 injury causing lost eye, 334, 471 Jerusalem and, 491 joins Rafi party, 86 Margot Klausner and, 448 nuclear weapons and, 164, 549 Occupied Territories, 517, 531, 548, 549–50 economic integration of, 470 education in, 480 as “liberated territories,” 543 military government of, 463, 464, 465, 472–79, 547, 549–50, 580, 581 “open bridges policy,” 468 peace negotiations and future of, 500, 502, 503–4, 505, 518–19, 567–68 visits to, 425, 428 “whip and carrot” approach, 473–75 Palestinian state, proposals for a, 514, 522 peace negotiations and future of the Occupied Territories, 500, 502, 503–4, 505, 518–19, 567–68 on Rabin’s breakdown, 237, 238 Sinai Campaign and, 149 Six-Day War, 372n, 376, 549 day one, 342, 344, 345–46, 350, 363n day two, 354, 356, 357, 360–62, 363, 365 day three, 366–67, 369–71, 379 final days, 387–88, 389–92, 393–94, 397, 399, 400, 401, 404–8, 410 the three weeks leading to the Six-Day War, 228–29, 234–35, 238, 241, 242–43, 260, 268, 270–71, 299n, 309 the decision to go to war, 323, 325–29, 326, 332–37, 549 joining the Eshkol government, 270–71, 272, 297, 310, 311–20, 328, 331, 332 replacement of Eshkol government, 231, 263, 306, 307 victory albums and, 441 victory arch in Jerusalem and, 450 Vietnam visit, 15, 125–26, 335, 472–73 Dayan, Shmuel, 35 Dead Sea Scrolls, 378 de Beauvoir, Simone, 213 Declaration of Independence, Israeli, 67, 450, 549n Defense Department, U.S., 116, 119 de Gaulle, Charles, 172, 207, 260, 273, 560–61 demographics.

The Dream Machine: J.C.R. Licklider and the Revolution That Made Computing Personal by M. Mitchell Waldrop


Ada Lovelace, air freight, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Apple II, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bill Duvall, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Byte Shop, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Donald Davies, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, experimental subject, fault tolerance, Frederick Winslow Taylor, friendly fire, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, Haight Ashbury, Howard Rheingold, information retrieval, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Rulifson, John von Neumann, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, pink-collar, popular electronics, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Robert Metcalfe, Silicon Valley, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, Turing machine, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Von Neumann architecture, Wiener process, zero-sum game

That's what Tracy would always remember most about it: tricycles in the Pen- tagon. It was a Saturday afternoon in late 1962 or maybe early 1963-sometime in the Kennedy administration, anyway, not too long after Tracy's family had moved down from the Boston area so his father could go to work for the De- fense Department. The air in Washington was electric in those days, with all the energy and drama of a new, young administration. The Cuban Missile Crisis, the Berlin Wall, the Civil Rights marches-it was heady stuff for a fifteen-year- old. So when his dad had offered to take him along to his office that afternoon while he picked up some papers he'd forgotten to bring home, Tracy had jumped at the chance. He was still slightly awestruck at the very thought of the Pentagon. Well, it was an awesome place, especially when you saw it up close.

"I was there to chair a session on communication," he says, thinking back to late November 1962 and the Homestead resort in Hot Springs, Virginia, where the MITRE Corporation had organized a meeting for the air force on unclassi- fied command-and-control research. "But I did attend some of the other ses- sions, and I came out with the feeling that command and control was a mess. Intellectually the speakers were poor. They had no vision. You couldn't see any solution coming from them." This was not a reassuring thought, says Fano-not when it came less than a month after the Cuban Missile Crisis, and especially not when the hallways of the Homestead meeting were abuzz with rumors of a near-catastrophe. For a full thirteen days in October, the United States had placed nuclear weaponry amounting to some seven thousand megatons-the equivalent of more than a hundred thousand Hiroshimas-on hair-trigger alert. The Soviets had presum- ably done much the same with their arsenal. And none of it, on either side, had been held in check by anything more than a slapdash, wired-together command- and-control system that virtually invited a fatal mistake.

pages: 488 words: 144,145

Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream by R. Christopher Whalen


Albert Einstein, bank run, banking crisis, Black Swan, Bretton Woods, British Empire, California gold rush, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, commoditize, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, debt deflation, falling living standards, fiat currency, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, global reserve currency, housing crisis, interchangeable parts, invention of radio, Kenneth Rogoff, laissez-faire capitalism, liquidity trap, means of production, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, non-tariff barriers, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, Plutocrats, plutocrats, price stability, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transcontinental railway, Upton Sinclair, women in the workforce

The Johnson campaign pounced on the opportunity. But long before that, Americans came to know and understand that their lives were at risk because of the background threat of nuclear war. The buildup of United States and Soviet military forces and strategic systems capable of delivering nuclear warheads was front-page news in the United States and around the world for decades. Events such as the Korean War in the 1950s and the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 brought the reality of war home to the entire world. In American politics, the means of response to the “Soviet threat” was a key point of debate for decades. For the author, the menacing image of the Soviet Union was a very personal one. When the Whalen family moved from New York to Washington in 1966, my father Richard Whalen was working as a speech writer for presidential candidate Richard Nixon.

pages: 430 words: 140,405

A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers by Lawrence G. Mcdonald, Patrick Robinson


asset-backed security, bank run, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, diversification, fixed income, high net worth, hiring and firing, if you build it, they will come, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, margin call, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage debt, naked short selling, negative equity, new economy, Ronald Reagan, short selling, sovereign wealth fund, value at risk

At last people began to tune in, to hear at last the gospel according to Saint Mike, once a mere cry in the wilderness but now echoing throughout the building. He was trying to get across one message: “We’re in DEFCON 1!” That’s the highest form of alert in the U.S. military: maximum readiness to repel a foreign attack on United States territory. For comparison’s sake, the government sounded DEFCON 3 on September 11, 2001, and DEFCON 2 for JFK’s Cuban missile crisis in 1962. That was the extent of Mike Gelband’s concern. All through the following weeks, amidst masses of ruffled feathers, the Lehman traders tried to obey orders, tried to sell whatever they could. But slowly it became apparent that the task was too great. In the end Bart, Alex, and Mike were beginning to accept that the only way out might be an outright sale of the entire firm to a bigger bank.

pages: 441 words: 135,176

The Edifice Complex: How the Rich and Powerful--And Their Architects--Shape the World by Deyan Sudjic


Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, call centre, colonial rule, Columbine, cuban missile crisis, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Frank Gehry, glass ceiling, Guggenheim Bilbao, haute couture, haute cuisine, megastructure, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, New Urbanism, oil shock, Peter Eisenman, Ronald Reagan, Socratic dialogue, urban planning, urban renewal, V2 rocket, Victor Gruen

A pair of three-seater sofas were positioned in the middle of the room on the long axis, allowing the President a direct view of the fireplace from his desk and to meet visitors that included Mother Teresa, Gorbachev, Mrs Thatcher and a selection of Beirut hostages. Lyndon Johnson clearly wasn’t keen on working at his desk. The coffee table with its speakerphone on a pull-out flap, close to the rocking chair with the footstool on the sludge-green carpet, was the seat of power in his day. Kennedy’s Oval Office on the other hand, with its ship models and yachting mementos, had a wider role when it became a soothing TV studio for the duration of the Cuban missile crisis. What his audience would not have seen was his secretary Evelyn Lincoln’s daybook open for the first week in October 1962. It records an insane schedule of appointments allocated in three-minute segments starting at 5.19 a.m. George Bundy was in twice on this particular morning, the first time at 6.18 a.m. for seven minutes. Then after face time for Dean Rusk and Ted Kennedy, he was back at 6.31 for another three minutes.

pages: 407 words: 114,478

The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio by William J. Bernstein


asset allocation, Bretton Woods, British Empire, buy low sell high, carried interest, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dava Sobel, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edmond Halley, equity premium, estate planning, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, financial independence, financial innovation, fixed income, George Santayana, German hyperinflation, high net worth, hindsight bias, Hyman Minsky, index fund, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, John Harrison: Longitude, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, market bubble, mental accounting, money market fund, mortgage debt, new economy, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, quantitative easing, railway mania, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, South Sea Bubble, survivorship bias, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the rule of 72, transaction costs, Vanguard fund, yield curve, zero-sum game

Of course, only in retrospect is it possible to identify what legendary investor Sir John Templeton calls “the point of maximum pessimism”; nobody sends you an overdue notice or a bawdy postcard at the market’s bottom. So even when you are courageous and lucky enough to invest at the low point, throwing money into a market that has been falling for years is a profoundly unpleasant activity. And, of course, you are taking the risk that the system may, in fact, not survive. This brings to mind an apocryphal story centering on the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, which has a young options trader asking an older colleague whether to make a long (bullish) bet or a short (bearish) one. “Long!” answers the older man, without a moment’s hesitation. “If the crisis resolves, you’ll make a bundle. And if it doesn’t, there’ll be nobody on the other side of the trade to collect.” Finally, at any one moment the societal DR operates differently across the globe.

pages: 744 words: 142,748

Exploding the Phone: The Untold Story of the Teenagers and Outlaws Who Hacked Ma Bell by Phil Lapsley


air freight, Apple II, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Bob Noyce, card file, Chance favours the prepared mind, cuban missile crisis, dumpster diving, Hush-A-Phone, index card, Jason Scott:, John Markoff, Menlo Park, popular electronics, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, the new new thing, the scientific method, urban renewal, wikimedia commons

AUTOVON telephone numbers were seven or ten digits long, just like normal ones. Internally, AUTOVON used multifrequency signaling, just as the civilian network did. You could even call into the regular telephone system from AUTOVON, though you weren’t supposed to be able to go the other way. However, AUTOVON had some features that made admirals and generals, network engineers, and phone phreaks salivate. Put into operation just a year after the Cuban missile crisis, AUTOVON was a child of the cold war, a telephone network designed to withstand a nuclear attack. The civilian telephone system was built on Bell’s hierarchical network concept, one in which lower-level switching centers forwarded calls to higher-level ones. The higher-level switches, the brainy ones like 4A crossbars, had lots of trunks to other cities. This approach made economic sense, because it minimized the number of switching centers and long-distance lines you needed.

pages: 514 words: 153,274

The Cobweb by Neal Stephenson, J. Frederick George


Ayatollah Khomeini, computer age, cuban missile crisis, friendly fire, illegal immigration, industrial robot, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, uranium enrichment, éminence grise

You are not going to be physically murdered—if you were, you’d get a star on the wall. You are going to be career-murdered. You will probably not get another promotion, and you will spend the rest of your life doing soybean studies. But you are in a situation that comes to few of us. You can, honest to God, make a difference.” “Why . . .” “Yeah, I know, why if it is so dangerous doesn’t the system take care of the problem? Don’t forget, during the Cuban missile crisis John Scali of the American Broadcasting Company, meeting a Soviet diplomat at a restaurant, probably saved the world from nuclear destruction. This is not quite so dramatic. But it is important. And the system simply can’t handle it. We have to do everything back-channel, both because of the peculiar chain of command and because we think there’s a mole somewhere in the system. Eat your breakfast.”

pages: 485 words: 148,662

Farewell by Sergei Kostin, Eric Raynaud


active measures, car-free, cuban missile crisis, index card, invisible hand, kremlinology, Lao Tzu, Mikhail Gorbachev, Ronald Reagan, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier

With Reagan, as he claimed in his campaign ads, “America was back,” and the attitude toward the USSR was about to change radically. With Republicans coming back to power, men from the Nixon and Ford administrations returned to the White House. Although many of Reagan’s advisers had begun their careers under Nixon, it soon became apparent that the two presidents had a very different approach to USSR relations. Since the big scare of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, East-West relations had eased up, transitioning to the period of détente at the end of the sixties. To preserve world peace, each bloc agreed to renounce crusades, letting adversaries impose hegemony in their zones of influence. Against this background, President Nixon, and then President Ford, embarked on a subtle strategy with the USSR, using a variety of peaceful coexistence policies (initially a Soviet theory) that could alternate from active to passive according to circumstances.

pages: 613 words: 151,140

No Such Thing as Society by Andy McSmith


anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Geldof, British Empire, Brixton riot, call centre, cuban missile crisis, Etonian, F. W. de Klerk, Farzad Bazoft, feminist movement, fixed income, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, full employment, glass ceiling, God and Mammon, greed is good, illegal immigration, index card, John Bercow, liberal capitalism, light touch regulation, Live Aid, loadsamoney, long peace, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, mortgage debt, mutually assured destruction, negative equity, Neil Kinnock, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, old-boy network, popular capitalism, Right to Buy, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, Sloane Ranger, South Sea Bubble, spread of share-ownership, strikebreaker, The Chicago School, union organizing, upwardly mobile, urban decay, Winter of Discontent, young professional

It was also reported that about 300 firms were marketing fallout radiation suits, etc.6 A month later, the government gave in to public demand and published the official version of Protect and Survive, which included what became a famous illustration of an idyllic nuclear family – Dad, Mum and two small kids – who had sensibly built a shelter out of bags filled with earth, sand and so on, so that they could crawl into it armed with supplies to survive the nuclear strike together. Wisely, the booklet refrained from recommending a diet of radioactive frog. The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) had existed since 1957, when it was founded on a wave of popular support after the Suez crisis and the Soviet invasion of Hungary had made the threat of nuclear war seem real. President Kennedy’s success in handling the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and the disarmament talks that followed took the urgency out of the problem, and for the best part of two decades CND limped along, half-forgotten but still there, run by volunteers from a cramped Georgian building in Bloomsbury. Suddenly, in February 1980, it was attracting so many recruits that it could afford a full-time general secretary, a Catholic priest named Bruce Kent. By April, he and two other paid staff were having to cope with forty to fift y letters a day from people wanting to join.

pages: 566 words: 144,072

In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan by Seth G. Jones


business climate, clean water, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, failed state, friendly fire, invisible hand, Khyber Pass, Mikhail Gorbachev, Murray Gell-Mann, open borders, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, trade route, zero-sum game

There he studied with strategic thinker Albert Wohlstetter, a prominent international relations scholar who led groundbreaking work on nuclear deterrence. Wohlstetter influenced the design and deployment of U.S. strategic forces through his research, developed the “second-strike” theory for deterring nuclear war, and originated “fail safe” and other methods for reducing the probability of accidental nuclear war.2 Wohlstetter served as a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, as an adviser to President John F. Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis, and, beginning in 1964, as a professor at the University of Chicago. He had a significant influence on Khalilzad and helped him make contacts in Washington. After leaving Chicago in 1979, Khalilzad moved to New York to become a professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.3 The Brutal-Hearted Mountain Tribes During his studies with Wohlstetter, Khalilzad continued to monitor events in Afghanistan and, with his academic training completed, he began writing articles on the invasion using a pseudonym to protect members of his family who were still there.

pages: 349 words: 134,041

Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives by Satyajit Das


accounting loophole / creative accounting, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, beat the dealer, Black Swan, Black-Scholes formula, Bretton Woods, BRICs, Brownian motion, business process, buy low sell high, call centre, capital asset pricing model, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, complexity theory, computerized trading, corporate governance, corporate raider, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, disintermediation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Thorp, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, Everything should be made as simple as possible, financial innovation, fixed income, Haight Ashbury, high net worth, implied volatility, index arbitrage, index card, index fund, interest rate derivative, interest rate swap, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, John Meriwether, locking in a profit, Long Term Capital Management, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, market bubble, Marshall McLuhan, mass affluent, mega-rich, merger arbitrage, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, money market fund, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, new economy, New Journalism, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, oil shock, Parkinson's law, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, random walk, regulatory arbitrage, Right to Buy, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, Satyajit Das, shareholder value, short selling, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, technology bubble, the medium is the message, the new new thing, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, value at risk, Vanguard fund, volatility smile, yield curve, Yogi Berra, zero-coupon bond

The seven LERTCONs are broken down into five DEFCONs and two Emergency Conditions. The DEFCON scale goes something like this: DEFCON 5 Normal peacetime readiness. DEFCON 4 Normal, increased intelligence and strengthened security measures. DEFCON 3 Increase in force readiness above normal readiness. DEFCON 2 Further increase in force readiness, but less than maximum readiness. DEFCON 1 Maximum force readiness. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US Strategic Air Command (nuclear bombers) was placed on DEFCON 2 for the first time in history. What DEFCON had to do with risk was not clear, nevertheless, we lurched from DEFCON 5 to 1 and back again. My DEFCON risk scale would be something like this: DEFCON 5 DEFCON 4 DEFCON 3 DEFCON 2 Go to lunch. The noon bells have tolled ‘All is well’. Business as usual. Normal indolence and lack of care continues.

pages: 419 words: 119,368

Espresso Tales by Alexander McCall Smith


cuban missile crisis, language of flowers, Malacca Straits, sensible shoes, South China Sea, upwardly mobile

Like all dogs, he was attempting to understand what was happening in the human world, but this was difficult to read, and he looked away. His was a world of floors and low things, and smells; a whole room, a world of smells, waiting for dogs to locate them and file away for future use. Angus met Big Lou’s challenge. “Yes,” he said. “I’m pretty sure about that. Don’t blame me for what I haven’t done. Simple. I didn’t start the Cuban missile crisis. I was around at the time, I suppose. But I didn’t start it.” Big Lou smiled. “That may be so, but let me tell you about something I’ve just read.” She paused, looking directly at Angus Lordie. “Do you want to hear about it?” Angus nodded graciously. “You are constantly entertaining, most excellent Lou,” he said. “We are all ears, aren’t we, Matthew?” “Well,” said Lou. “What I’ve been reading about is this.

pages: 511 words: 148,310

Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide by Joshua S. Goldstein


Albert Einstein, Ayatollah Khomeini, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Doomsday Clock, failed state, immigration reform, income inequality, invention of writing, invisible hand, land reform, long peace, microcredit, Mikhail Gorbachev, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, selection bias, Steven Pinker, Tobin tax, unemployed young men, Winter of Discontent, Y2K

In 1957, the Soviets had launched the first satellite, and the same big missiles that could launch a satellite could also land a nuclear warhead on any American city. A “missile gap” motivated Washington to accelerate deployment of its own nuclear missiles, even though the “gap” later turned out to be nonexistent. Both sides armed up with thousands of missiles, and these hung over our heads like the proverbial Sword of Damocles dangling from a thread—a metaphor used by President Kennedy in addressing the UN in 1961. In 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis brought the superpowers close to nuclear war, closer than they realized at the time. American ships once harassed a Soviet submarine with small depth charges, not knowing that it was armed with nuclear torpedoes, which the captain nearly used. The good part of the crisis is that it scared the hell out of leaders on both sides and led to the more scripted rivalries that characterized the rest of the Cold War years.

pages: 452 words: 150,785

Business Adventures: Twelve Classic Tales From the World of Wall Street by John Brooks


banking crisis, Bretton Woods, business climate, cuban missile crisis, Ford paid five dollars a day, Gunnar Myrdal, invention of the wheel, large denomination, margin call, Marshall McLuhan, Plutocrats, plutocrats, short selling, special drawing rights, tulip mania, upwardly mobile, very high income

Provided by its members—the United States, Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, West Germany, Belgium, and, originally, France—with gold ingots in quantities that might dazzle a Croesus (fifty-nine per cent of the total coming from the United States), the pool was intended to quell money panics by supplying gold to non-governmental buyers in any quantity demanded, at a price effectively the same as the Federal Reserve’s, and thereby to protect the stability of the dollar and the system. And that is what the pool did on Wednesday. Thursday, though, was much worse, with the gold-buying frenzy in both Paris and London breaking even the records set during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, and many people, high British and American officials among them, became convinced of something they had suspected from the first—that the gold rush was part of a plot by General de Gaulle and France to humble first the pound and now the dollar. The evidence, to be sure, was all circumstantial, but it was persuasive. De Gaulle and his Ministers had long been on record as wishing to relegate the pound and the dollar to international roles far smaller than their current ones.

pages: 594 words: 165,413

The Hunt for Red October by Tom Clancy


Ada Lovelace, cuban missile crisis, financial independence, impulse control, LNG terminal, trade route, Upton Sinclair

Another legend—a dead one—Penkovskiy had at the time been a colonel in the GRU, the Soviet military intelligence agency, a larger and more active counterpart to America's Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). His position had given him access to daily information on all facets of the Soviet military, from the Red Army's command structure to the operational status of intercontinental missiles. The information he smuggled out through his British contact, Greville Wynne, was supremely valuable, and Western countries had come to depend on it—too much. Penkovskiy was discovered during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. It was his data, ordered and delivered under great pressure and haste, that told President Kennedy that Soviet strategic systems were not ready for war. This information enabled the president to back Khrushchev into a corner from which there was no easy exit. The famous blink ascribed to Kennedy's steady nerves was, as in many such events throughout history, facilitated by his ability to see the other man's cards.

pages: 380 words: 118,675

The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon by Brad Stone


3D printing, airport security, AltaVista, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, bank run, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, book scanning, Brewster Kahle, call centre, centre right, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collapse of Lehman Brothers, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Danny Hillis, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, facts on the ground, game design, housing crisis, invention of movable type, inventory management, James Dyson, Jeff Bezos, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Kodak vs Instagram, late fees, loose coupling, low skilled workers, Maui Hawaii, Menlo Park, Network effects, new economy, optical character recognition,, Ponzi scheme, quantitative hedge fund, recommendation engine, Renaissance Technologies, RFID, Rodney Brooks, search inside the book, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, skunkworks, Skype, statistical arbitrage, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, Tony Hsieh, Whole Earth Catalog, why are manhole covers round?, zero-sum game

He taught them English, forced them to focus on their studies, and gave them each fifty cents a week after their chores were done so they could attend a Saturday-night dance. “What he did for us we can never repay,” says Carlos Rubio Albet, Miguel and Angel Bezos’s roommate at the facility. “He took a houseful of exiled teenage boys who didn’t speak English and turned it into a real family. That first Christmas I was there, in ’62, he made sure everyone had something under that tree.” After the thirteen tension-filled days of the Cuban missile crisis in October of that year, the residents of La Casa, as they called it, knew they weren’t going home any time soon. While the atmosphere at the Casa de Sales was strict, the teenagers enjoyed themselves, and when they later gathered for reunions with Father Byrnes, they remembered their days there as among the happiest of their lives. The young Miguel Bezos had a particular affinity for one practical joke.

pages: 481 words: 125,946

What to Think About Machines That Think: Today's Leading Thinkers on the Age of Machine Intelligence by John Brockman


3D printing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, clean water, cognitive dissonance, Colonization of Mars, complexity theory, computer age, computer vision, constrained optimization, corporate personhood, cosmological principle, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Danny Hillis, dark matter, discrete time, Douglas Engelbart, Elon Musk, Emanuel Derman, endowment effect, epigenetics, Ernest Rutherford, experimental economics, Flash crash, friendly AI, functional fixedness, Google Glasses, hive mind, income inequality, information trail, Internet of things, invention of writing, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, loose coupling, microbiome, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, natural language processing, Network effects, Norbert Wiener, pattern recognition, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, planetary scale, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Republic of Letters, RFID, Richard Thaler, Rory Sutherland, Satyajit Das, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart contracts, speech recognition, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, Stuxnet, superintelligent machines, supervolcano, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, Turing machine, Turing test, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Y2K

Because we have the ability to destroy much of human life on this planet, the idea that intelligent machines might one day control the decision-making apparatus that leads to pushing the big red button—or even launching a less catastrophic attack—is worrisome. This is because when it comes to decision making, we often rely on intuition and interpersonal communication as much as on rational analysis—the Cuban missile crisis is a good example—and we assume that intelligent machines won’t have these capabilities. However, intuition is the product of experience, and communication is, in the modern world, not restricted to telephones or face-to-face conversations. Once again, intelligent design of systems, with numerous redundancies and safeguards built in, suggests to me that machine decision making, even in the case of violent hostilities, is not necessarily worse than decision making by humans.

pages: 564 words: 163,106

The Rise and Fall of Modern Medicine by M. D. James le Fanu M. D.


Barry Marshall: ulcers, clean water, cuban missile crisis, discovery of penicillin, double helix, experimental subject, Gary Taubes, Isaac Newton, meta analysis, meta-analysis, rising living standards, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell, telerobotics, The Design of Experiments, the scientific method, V2 rocket

At this crucial moment in world politics, Roosevelt’s ailing health so impaired his political judgement as to produce ‘a deadly hiatus’ in the leadership of the United States that would lead to ‘the betrayal of the Poles, the imposition of communist governments in Eastern Europe, the Czechoslovakian coup and – on the other side of the world – the loss of China and the invasion of South Korea’.3 Eight years later, in 1953, Josef Stalin also fell victim to a stroke, at the age of seventy-three. Again, the history of the post-war world would have been very different if his hypertension had been treatable with appropriate medication. He could well have lived on for another decade, up to and including the Cuban missile crisis, which might then have had a very different outcome, culminating in the Soviet Union, under his demented leadership, launching a full-scale nuclear war against the United States. One way or another, hypertension has had a crucial impact on the fate of nations and the survival of the human race. So how did hypertension become treatable? The blood pressure is the pressure generated by the contraction of the heart muscle to pump blood into the arteries and around the circulation.

Cocaine Politics: Drugs, Armies, and the CIA in Central America by Peter Dale Scott, Jonathan Marshall


active measures, air freight, anti-communist, cuban missile crisis, Mikhail Gorbachev, Ronald Reagan, trade route, union organizing

The FBI documents confirm that, as FBI agent Currier suggested to the Iran-Contra committees, Corvo, Francisco Chanes, Frank Castro, Armando Lopez Estrada, and others were at the time o f the flight already under investigation for their alleged role in the May 1983 bombing o f the Continental National Bank o f Miami.89 The list o f Rene Corvo and Frank Castro associates in the FBI documents is a litany o f terrorists associated with previous incidents in the United States and Canada, from Omega 7 (Luis Crespo) back to the pragmatista terrorists o f the Watergate era (Eduardo Paz and Rafael Perez, alias Torpedo).90 One (Ramon Sanchez) had even been part o f a 1963 attempt by Frank Sturgis (later a Watergate burglar) to sink a Soviet tanker and thus frustrate the entente established between Kennedy and Khrushchev after the Cuban missile crisis.91 The documents from the Iran-Contra and Christie depositions offer strong evidence that the illegalities o f this Corvo-Castro-Vidal connection were more extensive, more high-level, and more murderous than the FBI documents alone indicate. The protected terrorism o f this group in the 1980s (when George Bush was in charge o f the War on Drugs and counterterrorist activities) was a prolongation o f the protected terrorism o f the Frank Castro-Armando Lopez Estrada-Luis Posada Carriles connection in 1976 (when Bush was director o f the CIA).

Guns, germs, and steel: the fates of human societies by Jared M. Diamond


affirmative action, Atahualpa, British Empire, California gold rush, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, discovery of the americas, European colonialism, Francisco Pizarro, Hernando de Soto, invention of movable type, invention of the wheel, invention of writing, James Watt: steam engine, Maui Hawaii, QWERTY keyboard, the scientific method, trade route

Early states had a hereditary leader with a title equivalent to king, like a super paramount chief and exercising an even greater monopoly of infor- mation, decision making, and power. Even in democracies today, crucial knowledge is available to only a few individuals, who control the flow of information to the rest of the government and consequently control deci- sions. For instance, in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1963, information and discussions that determined whether nuclear war would engulf half a bil- lion people were initially confined by President Kennedy to a ten-member executive committee of the National Security Council that he himself appointed; then he limited final decisions to a four-member group con- sisting of himself and three of his cabinet ministers. Central control is more far-reaching, and economic redistribution in the form of tribute (renamed taxes) more extensive, in states than in chief- doms.

pages: 326 words: 48,727

Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth by Mark Hertsgaard


Berlin Wall, business continuity plan, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth,, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fixed income, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, peak oil, Port of Oakland, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, the built environment, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, transit-oriented development, University of East Anglia, urban planning

When I think about Chiara confronting a world like the one described in the UK Met Office's study of a 4°C temperature rise—snowpacks gone, the Amazon burning, sea levels soaring—well, I can't think about it for long. It's too depressing. I said earlier in this book that denial isn't much of a survival strategy, and I still believe it, but I confess I sometimes see its attractions. But wait a minute, I tell myself. My brothers and sisters and I grew up in the shadow of the atomic bomb, the twentieth century's ultimate nightmare, and we lived through it. I'm not old enough to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, but as a young reporter in Washington in the 1980s I had a front-row seat for the belligerent jousting between the nuclear superpowers, when the massive arsenals of the United States and the Soviet Union were poised on hair triggers. I wrote a lot about the arms race in the 1980s, and there were times the facts left me pretty depressed. Yet humanity ended up dodging the nuclear bullet, at least for the time being, and it did so thanks to what at the time seemed rather unlikely developments.

pages: 444 words: 151,136

Endless Money: The Moral Hazards of Socialism by William Baker, Addison Wiggin


Andy Kessler, asset allocation, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, break the buck, Bretton Woods, BRICs, business climate, capital asset pricing model, commoditize, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, debt deflation, Elliott wave,, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, fiat currency, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, German hyperinflation, housing crisis, income inequality, index fund, inflation targeting, Joseph Schumpeter, laissez-faire capitalism, land reform, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, McMansion, mega-rich, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage tax deduction, naked short selling, negative equity, offshore financial centre, Ponzi scheme, price stability, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, rent control, reserve currency, riskless arbitrage, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, seigniorage, short selling, Silicon Valley, six sigma, statistical arbitrage, statistical model, Steve Jobs, The Great Moderation, the scientific method, time value of money, too big to fail, upwardly mobile, War on Poverty, Yogi Berra, young professional

However, the enemies’ possible miscalculation here is that in the event our sovereignty, oil supply, or other strategic interest were in jeopardy, America’s response would be strong and the red tape would quickly be cut. What other known unknowns exist, military or otherwise? Many have been mentioned already. Russia’s intrusion into Georgia probably presages the fall of other former satellite states should Russia regain its footing, and the Ukraine bears watching. It could also set up other confrontations, such as over Poland regarding its new missile pact, or even another Cuban missile crisis. Venezuala’s dictator, Hugo Chavez, has bought $6 billion of sophisticated weapons from Russia and China and has formed links to Hizbollah and Hamas, so he could be working behind the scenes to promote a crisis. In a bid for Eastern European influence, Germany might ally with Russia concerning certain territorial spheres. But otherwise, Russia appears weak economically and demographically.

pages: 572 words: 134,335

The Making of an Atlantic Ruling Class by Kees Van der Pijl


anti-communist, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Boycotts of Israel, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, collective bargaining, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, deskilling, diversified portfolio, European colonialism, floating exchange rates, full employment, imperial preference, Joseph Schumpeter, liberal capitalism, mass immigration, means of production, North Sea oil, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit maximization, RAND corporation, strikebreaker, trade liberalization, trade route, union organizing, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, War on Poverty

Ten days after McNamara had outlined the doctrine of graduated deterrence at a NATO meeting in Athens in May 1962, the French President gave a press conference in which he announced the formation of an independent Force de Frappe. Two days later, Kennedy declared that independent deterrents were undesirable. That autumn, an American offer to supply Polaris-equipped submarines was withdrawn. Following the Cuban missile crisis, de Gaulle publicly complained about not having been consulted by the American leadership. From there, the crisis in US-French relations spilled over to the apparently non-military problem of British admission to the EEC, of which in French eyes, after the reintegration of the British nuclear force in NATO, only the economic disadvantages remained.101 In a sense, Kennedy’s Partnership strategy was effectively thwarted by the French decision to veto British EEC membership the following January.

pages: 497 words: 144,283

Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization by Parag Khanna


1919 Motor Transport Corps convoy, 2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, 9 dash line, additive manufacturing, Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, borderless world, Boycotts of Israel, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, British Empire, business intelligence, call centre, capital controls, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, complexity theory, continuation of politics by other means, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, data is the new oil, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deglobalization, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, Detroit bankruptcy, digital map, diversification, Doha Development Round, edge city, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, energy security, ethereum blockchain, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, Ferguson, Missouri, financial innovation, financial repression, fixed income, forward guidance, global supply chain, global value chain, global village, Google Earth, Hernando de Soto, high net worth, Hyperloop, ice-free Arctic, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial cluster, industrial robot, informal economy, Infrastructure as a Service, interest rate swap, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, John von Neumann, Julian Assange, Just-in-time delivery, Kevin Kelly, Khyber Pass, Kibera, Kickstarter, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, LNG terminal, low cost carrier, manufacturing employment, mass affluent, mass immigration, megacity, Mercator projection, Metcalfe’s law, microcredit, mittelstand, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, New Economic Geography, new economy, New Urbanism, off grid, offshore financial centre, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, openstreetmap, out of africa, Panamax, Parag Khanna, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, Plutocrats, plutocrats, post-oil, post-Panamax, private military company, purchasing power parity, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, rent-seeking, reserve currency,