Induced demand

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pages: 342 words: 86,256

Walkable City: How Downtown Can Save America, One Step at a Time by Jeff Speck

A Pattern Language, active transport: walking or cycling, benefit corporation, bike sharing, car-free, carbon footprint, carbon tax, congestion charging, congestion pricing, David Brooks, Donald Shoup, edge city, Edward Glaeser, Enrique Peñalosa, food miles, Frank Gehry, Guggenheim Bilbao, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, invisible hand, it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it, Jane Jacobs, Lewis Mumford, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, parking minimums, peak oil, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Florida, skinny streets, smart cities, starchitect, Stewart Brand, tech worker, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, transit-oriented development, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, white picket fence, young professional, zero-sum game, Zipcar

Despite all the countervailing pressures, it is fully within the capabilities of the typical American city to alter its relationship to the automobile in subtle ways that can have a tremendous impact on walkability—to welcome cars, but on its own terms. First and foremost, this means making all transportation decisions in light of the phenomenon of induced demand. BECAUSE I MUST: INDUCED DEMAND About once a month, I give a talk somewhere in America, typically to a chamber of commerce, a planning association, or a bunch of people in a bookstore. Topics and approaches can vary, but I have one hard-and-fast rule: every lecture, no matter what, I will talk at length about induced demand. I do this because induced demand is the great intellectual black hole in city planning, the one professional certainty that everyone thoughtful seems to acknowledge, yet almost no one is willing to act upon.

This would be acceptable if efforts to reduce traffic congestion didn’t wreck cities and perhaps also if they worked. But they don’t work, because of induced demand. Most city engineers don’t understand induced demand. They might say that they do, but, if so, they don’t act upon that understanding. I say this because it would seem that almost no traffic engineers in America possess the necessary combination of insight and political will that would allow them to take the induced demand discussion to its logical conclusion, which is this: Stop doing traffic studies. Stop trying to improve flow. Stop spending people’s tax dollars giving them false hope that you can cure congestion, while mutilating their cities in the process.

But guess who gets the big contract for the roadway expansion that the study deems necessary? As long as engineers are in charge of traffic studies, they will predict the need for engineering. Finally, and most essentially: The main problem with traffic studies is that they almost never consider the phenomenon of induced demand. Induced demand is the name for what happens when increasing the supply of roadways lowers the time cost of driving, causing more people to drive and obliterating any reductions in congestion. We talked about this phenomenon at length in Suburban Nation in 2000, and the seminal text, The Elephant in the Bedroom: Automobile Dependence and Denial, was published by Hart and Spivak in 1993.


pages: 257 words: 64,285

The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport: Second Edition by David Levinson, Kevin Krizek

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bay Area Rapid Transit, big-box store, bike sharing, carbon tax, Chris Urmson, collaborative consumption, commoditize, congestion pricing, crowdsourcing, DARPA: Urban Challenge, dematerialisation, driverless car, Dutch auction, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Ford Model T, Google Hangouts, high-speed rail, Induced demand, intermodal, invention of the printing press, jitney, John Markoff, labor-force participation, Lewis Mumford, lifelogging, Lyft, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, Network effects, Occam's razor, oil shock, place-making, pneumatic tube, post-work, printed gun, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, tacit knowledge, techno-determinism, technological singularity, Tesla Model S, the built environment, The future is already here, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, urban renewal, women in the workforce, working-age population, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game, Zipcar

See the Journal of Transport and Land Use for the latest research in the field, or Planning for Place and Plexus (Levinson and Krizek 2008) for a textbook explanation. 22 While the "Iron Law of Congestion" (induced demand) implies that supply creates its own demand, this is true only to a point, while demand is growing faster than supply can accommodate it. If demand is not supply constrained, as in many rural areas where roads are well below capacity, there is no induced demand. If demand is falling for other reasons, even if supply is rising, induced demand stumbles. And once maturity has set in and all the low-hanging fruit (high benefit, low cost projects) have been picked, the net cost of projects rises, fewer and fewer roads get built. 23 Figure 1.1.

To spoil the ending, she places the responsibility of one man's death not on a single individual, but rather, on the shoulders of many. Many writers attribute the changes to per capita travel demand to declining employment and rising fuel prices. Further the lack of roadway expansion proportionate to population limits the amount of "induced demand" that may have driven travel growth earlier. They certainly are part of the package, but cannot explain everything. Like Christie, we charge several culprits who have cumulatively contribute to the crime of "killing", or at least maiming, traffic. Changing Demographics Both Kevin and David are Generation X (born 1964-1983)46—a group that has not radically affected aggregate transport behavior.

If you can work while traveling, the value of saving time is less than if you must focus on the driving task. This phenomenon helps explain a premium commuters are willing to pay for high-quality transit and intercity rail service.249 If the time or money cost of traveling per trip declines, the long-held theory of induced demand predicts, all else equal: more trips, longer trips, and more trips in the peak period. Logically, if the time or money cost per trip rises, there should be fewer and shorter trips, or reduced demand. Privately owned autonomous vehicles lower the cost of travel per trip. MaaS eliminates the fixed cost of transportation, and exchanges it for a higher per cost trip.


pages: 278 words: 91,332

Carmageddon: How Cars Make Life Worse and What to Do About It by Daniel Knowles

active transport: walking or cycling, autonomous vehicles, Bandra-Worli Sea Link, bank run, big-box store, bike sharing, Boeing 747, Boris Johnson, business cycle, car-free, carbon footprint, congestion charging, congestion pricing, coronavirus, COVID-19, Crossrail, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, Detroit bankruptcy, Donald Shoup, Donald Trump, driverless car, Elaine Herzberg, Elon Musk, first-past-the-post, Ford Model T, Frank Gehry, garden city movement, General Motors Futurama, gentrification, ghettoisation, high-speed rail, housing crisis, Hyperloop, Induced demand, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jeremy Corbyn, Jevons paradox, Lewis Mumford, lockdown, Lyft, megacity, megastructure, New Urbanism, Northern Rock, parking minimums, Piers Corbyn, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, safety bicycle, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Southern State Parkway, Steve Jobs, TED Talk, Tesla Model S, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, Traffic in Towns by Colin Buchanan, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, walkable city, white flight, white picket fence, Yom Kippur War, young professional

That, however, was based on other studies that looked at whole highway networks (in this case, of the United States and the Netherlands), rather than specifically urban roads. It makes sense that induced demand is less likely to be a problem in rural areas, where everyone drives anyway, and cannot switch to taking a subway train instead. In urban areas, other estimates put the figure as high as 40 percent after six months and 100 percent after four years. That is, over four years, the entire extra capacity generated by a road expansion is used up again. Even the Department for Transport study found that “induced demand is likely to be higher for capacity improvements in urban areas or on highly congested routes.” Induced demand is not inherently a bad thing, obviously.

Transport policy explicitly followed a model of “predict and provide”: Planners would try to predict how many people would want to drive, based on past trends, and extrapolate out to decide how many roads to build. What the planners of the 1950s and ’60s had not understood, or refused to understand, was the principle of induced demand (more on this later). In economic terms, they had not understood that the number of drivers was “endogenous”—not “exogenous.” That is, the policy of “predict and provide” actually helped accelerate the rise of the car in the first place. If you build more roads, and do all you can to speed the flow of traffic, then the main result is that car ownership becomes more attractive.

In that case we Americans will hardly need to ponder a mystery that has troubled men for millennia. What is the purpose of life? For us, the answer will be clear, established and for all practical purposes indisputable: The purpose of life is to produce and consume automobiles.” Long before planners realized it, Jacobs had realized the problem of “induced demand” that roads create. This is also known in effect as Jevons paradox. That is, if you make something more abundant, the price of it will fall, and people will use it much more than they previously did. William Stanley Jevons was an English economist in the nineteenth century who looked at coal.


pages: 221 words: 68,880

Bikenomics: How Bicycling Can Save the Economy (Bicycle) by Elly Blue

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, active transport: walking or cycling, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autism spectrum disorder, big-box store, bike sharing, Boris Johnson, business cycle, car-free, congestion pricing, Donald Shoup, food desert, hydraulic fracturing, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, job automation, Loma Prieta earthquake, medical residency, oil shale / tar sands, parking minimums, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, power law, ride hailing / ride sharing, science of happiness, the built environment, Tragedy of the Commons, urban renewal, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional

It’s a classic example of the tragedy of the commons—when everybody wants to use something, it becomes less useful for everyone. If we were talking about a popular Christmas toy instead, we might predict rioting—and that assessment is not far off the daily reality of and general discourse about our roadways. The term for this phenomenon is “induced demand.” By building a road and inviting the world to use it freely, we are in essence managing the demand for the road in a way that maximizes congestion. More effective demand management strategies exist, like congestion pricing—reducing demand by charging market rates for the use of a road. Congestion pricing has not yet come to the United States, though.

But the strategy is working in London, Stockholm, Milan, and Singapore, to keep city streets moving during peak hours. There are other ways to affect demand as well. People in cities all over the world are happy to use a well-run transit system, if it is available, or to ride bicycles if the option is attractive, or a combination of the two. Induced demand also works for bicycling in the same way as it does for cars. When you build bike paths and lanes, or design streets more subtly to be attractive places to bike, people drag their dusty bikes out of the garage and ride. When it comes to bicycling, short trips, close to home, are the lowest-hanging fruit.

The current federal transportation bill explicitly offers clean air funds to pay for road widening projects that can show reduced congestion—no matter how faulty the long-term assumptions. But even the short-term congestion relief—a few minutes each day—doesn’t fix pollution. When people can drive faster, they drive farther.73 Induced demand means that if a road does its job as a development tool, the long term impact of pollution—both on that road and on surface streets that it feeds into—goes up astronomically.81 These short-term reprieves amount to expensive long-term investments in much greater air quality problems, as the freeway projects of the past have demonstrated.


pages: 295 words: 81,861

Road to Nowhere: What Silicon Valley Gets Wrong About the Future of Transportation by Paris Marx

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Airbnb, An Inconvenient Truth, autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bike sharing, Californian Ideology, car-free, carbon credits, carbon footprint, cashless society, clean tech, cloud computing, colonial exploitation, computer vision, congestion pricing, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, COVID-19, DARPA: Urban Challenge, David Graeber, deep learning, degrowth, deindustrialization, deskilling, Didi Chuxing, digital map, digital rights, Donald Shoup, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, driverless car, Elaine Herzberg, Elon Musk, energy transition, Evgeny Morozov, Extinction Rebellion, extractivism, Fairchild Semiconductor, Ford Model T, frictionless, future of work, General Motors Futurama, gentrification, George Gilder, gig economy, gigafactory, global pandemic, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, green new deal, Greyball, high-speed rail, Hyperloop, independent contractor, Induced demand, intermodal, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, jitney, John Perry Barlow, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, late capitalism, Leo Hollis, lockdown, low interest rates, Lyft, Marc Benioff, market fundamentalism, minimum viable product, Mother of all demos, move fast and break things, Murray Bookchin, new economy, oil shock, packet switching, Pacto Ecosocial del Sur, Peter Thiel, pre–internet, price mechanism, private spaceflight, quantitative easing, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Nader, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, safety bicycle, Salesforce, School Strike for Climate, self-driving car, Sidewalk Labs, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley billionaire, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, smart cities, social distancing, Southern State Parkway, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Stop de Kindermoord, streetcar suburb, tech billionaire, tech worker, techlash, technological determinism, technological solutionism, technoutopianism, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, TikTok, transit-oriented development, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban planning, urban renewal, VTOL, walkable city, We are as Gods, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, WeWork, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, work culture , Yom Kippur War, young professional

The company tried to distract from how pathetic their final product was by emphasizing plans for a larger system to go all the way to the airport, but there was really no hiding the fact that, once again, Musk had over-promised and vastly underdelivered. In December 2019, Musk tweeted a poll asking his followers whether he should build “super safe, Earthquake-proof tunnels under cities to solve traffic,” but one user replied with a link to a Wikipedia article on induced demand and asked him to read it. In response, Musk, who has no training in transport planning, dismissed the concept, writing, “Induced demand is one of the most irrational theories I’ve ever heard. Correlation is not causation. If the transport system exceeds public travel needs, there will be very little traffic. I support anything that improves traffic, as this negatively affects almost everyone.”

In 2011, economists Gilles Duranton and Matthew Turner published a study that compared the amount of new roads and highways built in US cities to the amount of new miles of driving that took place between 1983 and 2003.5 They found a causal relationship between the two that they called “the fundamental law of road congestion”: when the amount of highways or roads in a city increased, the amount of driving tended to increase by a proportional amount on highways and a slightly lower amount on major urban roads. So, as new road capacity was made available, people were incentivized to drive more, including by moving farther from the urban core and making longer commutes. In transport planning, this concept has another name: induced demand. The decision to move from seeing the roads as a public space where city officials chose which means of travel to incentivize in service of maximizing the public good to one that responded to perceived transport demand set the stage for the expansion of automobile use. As more space was made for cars on existing streets, new roads built for them, and eventually freeway systems that cemented their supremacy, each of those actions was not just responding to demand but inducing greater demand for automobiles and places to drive them.

I support anything that improves traffic, as this negatively affects almost everyone.” Yet Musk’s efforts were putting more cars on the road and proposing narrow tunnels that would not solve the problem. It was therefore not surprising to read that he was dismissive of induced demand and wanted to preserve suburban community planning. When pitching the Boring Company’s transport system, Musk made a particularly illuminating argument about how it would fit within existing neighborhoods. In 2018, he explained that: you can weave the Boring system tunnel network into the fabric of the city without changing the character of the city. The city will still feel the same; you’re not going to get in anyone’s way; you’re not going to obstruct anyone’s view … You will have this revolutionary transport system and your city will still feel like your city.15 The language Musk used mirrors the concerns of a particular type of anti-development organization that has gained notable leverage and attention in California and is typically made up of white, financially stable homeowners who do not wish to see denser housing built near their homes.


pages: 248 words: 73,689

Age of the City: Why Our Future Will Be Won or Lost Together by Ian Goldin, Tom Lee-Devlin

15-minute city, 1960s counterculture, agricultural Revolution, Alvin Toffler, Anthropocene, anti-globalists, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, Brixton riot, call centre, car-free, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, charter city, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, clean water, cloud computing, congestion charging, contact tracing, coronavirus, COVID-19, CRISPR, data science, David Brooks, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, Edward Glaeser, Edward Jenner, Enrique Peñalosa, fake news, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial engineering, financial independence, future of work, General Motors Futurama, gentrification, germ theory of disease, global pandemic, global supply chain, global village, Haight Ashbury, Hernando de Soto, high-speed rail, household responsibility system, housing crisis, Howard Rheingold, income per capita, Induced demand, industrial robot, informal economy, invention of the printing press, invention of the wheel, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Perry Barlow, John Snow's cholera map, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labour mobility, Lewis Mumford, lockdown, Louis Pasteur, low interest rates, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, megacity, Neal Stephenson, Network effects, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, open borders, open economy, Pearl River Delta, race to the bottom, Ray Oldenburg, remote working, rent control, Republic of Letters, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, rising living standards, Salesforce, Shenzhen special economic zone , smart cities, smart meter, Snow Crash, social distancing, special economic zone, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, superstar cities, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Great Good Place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, trade route, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban decay, urban planning, urban sprawl, Victor Gruen, white flight, working poor, working-age population, zero-sum game, zoonotic diseases

Just imagine the kind of public transit systems we could have built if all the money we spent on cars and roads in the twentieth century had been pooled into shared modes of transport. The irony is that the convenience provided by cars is self-eroding. As people become reliant on driving for a growing share of journeys, the amount of traffic congestion increases. New roads help to ease that congestion for a time, but quickly lead to what urban planners call induced demand, as faster journey times encourage people to drive even more. It takes just a few years for the typical metropolitan highway to fill up with increased demand.6 What cars have brought is privacy and choice. They have made it possible for the majority of urban populations in rich countries to move out to the suburbs, where they can live in large homes in quiet cul-de-sacs with their own backyards.

Chapter 10 – Conclusion: Better Together 1 Mumford, The City in History, p. 3. 2 UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2022, ‘World population prospects’ (population.un.org). 3 OECD, 2015, The Metropolitan Century (oecd.org). 4 Hess, D. and Rehler, J., 2021, ‘America has eight parking spaces for every car. Here’s how cities are rethinking that land’, Fast Company. 5 Morris, D., 2016, ‘Today’s cars are parked 95% of the time’, Fortune. 6 Schneider, B., 2018, ‘CityLab University: induced demand’, Bloomberg News. 7 Jacobs, J., 1961, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (Random House). 8 Rushton, D., 2020, ‘London vs New York: which city has the higher average building height?’, Carto (carto.com). 9 Montgomery, C., 2013, The Happy City (Penguin Books). 10 OECD Data, 2021, ‘Net ODA’ (data.oecd.org). 11 Goldin and Muggah, Terra Incognita, p. 133. 12 Thatcher Archive, Interview for Woman’s Own, 23 September 1987, Margaret Thatcher Foundation (margaretthatcher.org).

., 2007, ‘Drug-resistant form of plague identified’, Guardian. Sanchez-Paramo, C., et al., 2021, ‘COVID-19 leaves a legacy of rising poverty and widening inequality’, World Bank (worldbank.org). Sanghani, N., 2019, ‘Lessons from the history of globalisation’, Capital Economics (capitaleconomics.com). Schneider, B., 2018, ‘CityLab University: induced demand’, Bloomberg News. Schwedel, A., et al., 2021, ‘The working future: more human, not less’, Bain & Company (bain.com). Semuels, A., 2017, ‘Japan might be what equality in education looks like’, The Atlantic. Shapiro, S., 2015, ‘New species of city discovered: university city’, Next City. Shelter, 2022, ‘The story of social housing’ (england.shelter.org.uk). —, 2022, ‘Social housing deficit’ (england.shelter.org.uk).


pages: 340 words: 92,904

Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and the Fall of Cars by Samuel I. Schwartz

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, bike sharing, car-free, City Beautiful movement, collaborative consumption, congestion charging, congestion pricing, crowdsourcing, desegregation, Donald Shoup, driverless car, Enrique Peñalosa, Ford Model T, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, high-speed rail, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, invention of the wheel, lake wobegon effect, Lewis Mumford, Loma Prieta earthquake, longitudinal study, Lyft, Masdar, megacity, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nate Silver, oil shock, parking minimums, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, scientific management, self-driving car, skinny streets, smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, TED Talk, the built environment, the map is not the territory, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, walkable city, Wall-E, white flight, white picket fence, Works Progress Administration, Yogi Berra, Zipcar

Or how, two years later, twenty-five thousand more people were getting into Manhattan’s Central Business District. What made this interesting is that it was a nearly perfect example of what the economist Anthony Downs named the Law of Peak-Hour Expressway Congestion and which another economist, Gilles Duranton, called induced demand. Boiled down to the basics, induced demand is what happens when the supply of a good increases and more of that supply then gets consumed: when a host puts out more cheese and crackers, her guests eat more cheese and crackers. What this means in road (and bridge, and tunnel) building is not just obvious but as well documented as anything in transportation engineering: “If you build it, they will come.”

In 1960, when the United States had 64.6 million full-time workers, 9.4 million, or 14.5 percent of them, worked outside the county in which they lived; by 2000, 128.3 million were employed, and 34.3 million worked outside their home counties: 27 percent. Average commuting times inched up to more than fifty minutes a day. Because of induced demand, there was no engineering fix to this problem: no matter how many roads we built, or how well, people weren’t getting from point A to point B any faster, partly because points A and B were getting further apart, partly because we had reached the limits of what could be done to improve automotive speed and safety even using the limited definitions of an earlier era of engineering doctrine.


pages: 1,136 words: 73,489

Working in Public: The Making and Maintenance of Open Source Software by Nadia Eghbal

Amazon Web Services, Apollo 11, barriers to entry, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), Big Tech, bitcoin, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, commoditize, commons-based peer production, context collapse, continuous integration, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Heinemeier Hansson, death of newspapers, Debian, disruptive innovation, Dunbar number, en.wikipedia.org, eternal september, Ethereum, Firefox, Free Software Foundation, Guido van Rossum, Hacker Ethic, Hacker News, Induced demand, informal economy, information security, Jane Jacobs, Jean Tirole, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Kubernetes, leftpad, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, Neal Stephenson, Network effects, node package manager, Norbert Wiener, pirate software, pull request, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, Ronald Coase, Ruby on Rails, side project, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, tacit knowledge, the Cathedral and the Bazaar, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, TikTok, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, two-sided market, urban planning, web application, wikimedia commons, Yochai Benkler, Zimmermann PGP

Every comment added to a discussion thread is ultimately a form of debt, and its [sic] a form of debt with compound interest. . . . . No matter how many GitHub issues we create, it seems that every single one will grow in length until it becomes an unsustainable conversation. We have a problem of induced demand: just as adding lanes to a highway does not resolve traffic congestion, creating more threads does not resolve comment congestion.272 The threat of induced demand explains why the solution to managing extractive contributions is not always to add more contributors—tempting as that may be—but to draw clearer boundaries between which types of tasks are worth allocating anyone’s attention to and which can be safely ignored.


pages: 83 words: 23,805

City 2.0: The Habitat of the Future and How to Get There by Ted Books

active transport: walking or cycling, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, big-box store, carbon footprint, clean tech, cognitive load, collaborative consumption, crowdsourcing, demand response, food desert, high-speed rail, housing crisis, Induced demand, Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, jitney, Kibera, Kickstarter, Kitchen Debate, McMansion, megacity, New Urbanism, openstreetmap, ride hailing / ride sharing, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart grid, TED Talk, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, Zipcar

Many drivers switched to faster roads in New Jersey, and as New York City invested more in public transportation, some commuters switched their daily patterns to ride subways and buses (New York is the only city in the country where fewer than half of all households own a car). Traffic is one of the best-known examples of induced demand; the more roads, the more people will use them. If the ultimate goal is to curb driving in a city and to move people away from unsustainable transportation sources, reducing the space allotted to cars is a good way to start. Naysayers will tell you that these urban highway removal projects were exceptional cases in which a confluence of natural disasters, strong-willed politicians, or other unique factors allowed for the removal.


India's Long Road by Vijay Joshi

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, barriers to entry, Basel III, basic income, blue-collar work, book value, Bretton Woods, business climate, capital controls, carbon tax, central bank independence, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, colonial rule, congestion charging, Cornelius Vanderbilt, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Doha Development Round, eurozone crisis, facts on the ground, failed state, financial intermediation, financial repression, first-past-the-post, floating exchange rates, foreign exchange controls, full employment, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, hiring and firing, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, Induced demand, inflation targeting, invisible hand, land reform, low interest rates, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Martin Wolf, means of production, microcredit, moral hazard, obamacare, Pareto efficiency, price elasticity of demand, price mechanism, price stability, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, school choice, school vouchers, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, special drawing rights, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, universal basic income, urban sprawl, vertical integration, working-age population

So the case for state intervention is not decisive. (There remains, however, one plausible source of market failure in primary care. This arises from the fact that patients are ill-​informed in medical matters. Doctors know much more about medicine than patients, so there is a potential for supplier-​induced demand: patients may be inveigled into buying unnecessary, and possibly even harmful, treatment.)38 There is of course an equity case for subsidizing primary care for poor people. But this is an argument for public finance, not necessarily for public provision. Whether public provision is a good thing depends on the quality of public provision.

On the demand side, patients much prefer going to fee-​charging, private, often unqualified doctors, who treat patients with much more consideration and courtesy than government doctors, and make up in effort what they lack in qualifications. But they also offer antibiotic and steroid treatments for ordinary, often self-​limiting, conditions. There is surely an element of supplier-​induced demand in this; unfortunately, it appears now to have E d u c at i o n a n d H e a lt h C a r e [ 195 ] 196 become ingrained in consumer preferences. People do not feel they are being properly cared for unless they are prescribed antibiotics. Given this dismal scenario, what are the policy implications for primary care?

[ 303 ] 304 have to contract or close down. I see no realistic hope of improving the abysmal quality of care in the public sector without competition. Of course, the system I envisage would need state regulation. Though market failures are not pervasive in primary care, they are certainly not absent. Supplier-​ induced demand undoubtedly exists. For example, patients may be cajoled or even deceived by private doctors into taking antibiotics they do not need. (There are some similar horror stories in secondary care as well, for example of women being ‘persuaded’ to have unnecessary hysterectomies.) So, regulation is inescapable, combined with programmes to train unqualified private doctors, and measures to curb the open availability of prescription drugs and medicines across the counter.


pages: 293 words: 90,714

Copenhagenize: The Definitive Guide to Global Bicycle Urbanism by Mikael Colville-Andersen

active transport: walking or cycling, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, bike sharing, business cycle, car-free, congestion charging, corporate social responsibility, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Enrique Peñalosa, functional fixedness, gamification, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, Jane Jacobs, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Kickstarter, Mahatma Gandhi, megaproject, meta-analysis, neurotypical, out of africa, place-making, Ralph Waldo Emerson, safety bicycle, self-driving car, sharing economy, smart cities, starchitect, transcontinental railway, urban planning, urban sprawl, Yogi Berra

Every city has at least 25 percent of the population who will take to the “wheel,” as it once was called, if infrastructure and traffic-calming are implemented. Two million private bicycles have been sold in Paris since the city’s bike-share system, Vélib’, hit the streets in 2007. This is positive induced demand. If you don’t see anyone swimming, does that mean you don’t need a bridge? I love the statistic that 67 percent of motorists in Copenhagen want more bicycle infrastructure. Why? Because we’ve shown them and they get it. They can do the math visually. If a motorist is sitting at a red light with five cars in front of them and 100 cyclists at the red light on the cycle track next to them, they can see it.

There were few Danes or Dutch being invited to conferences to talk about their work. There were no publishers emailing people like me to write books about bicycle urbanism. The work was done quietly in municipal offices, without much fanfare or external attention. As user rates on the expanding infrastructure started to rise, the induced demand led to a further expansion of the network and the extent of infrastructure. Nowadays, bold political goals are laid out in our performance-based culture in order to keep people interested and get politicians elected or reelected. Any other city on the planet could replicate the success of Copenhagen or Amsterdam in 40 years, absolutely.


pages: 441 words: 96,534

Streetfight: Handbook for an Urban Revolution by Janette Sadik-Khan

autonomous vehicles, bike sharing, Boris Johnson, business cycle, call centre, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, congestion pricing, Cornelius Vanderbilt, crowdsourcing, digital map, Donald Shoup, edge city, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Enrique Peñalosa, fixed-gear, gentrification, high-speed rail, Hyperloop, Induced demand, Jane Jacobs, Lewis Mumford, Loma Prieta earthquake, Lyft, megaproject, New Urbanism, off-the-grid, place-making, self-driving car, sharing economy, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, Works Progress Administration, Zipcar

Urban designer Jeff Speck, who has seen this assumption play out on the streets of hundreds of cities and towns, says it’s the mark of “the fundamental intellectual bankruptcy of traffic engineering as a profession and its unwillingness to acknowledge that environment influences behavior.” “And that plays out both in terms of traffic and in terms of safety,” he told me. “In traffic it’s induced demand, the idea that you add a lane to absorb traffic without acknowledging that that lane will cause traffic.” After building an eight-lane highway in a major urban area, a city almost invariably finds itself with eight lanes of slow-moving traffic soon thereafter. When, in an effort to ease that traffic, the eight-lane road is expanded by 25 percent to ten lanes, the city will eventually have ten lanes of traffic and nearly 25 percent more traffic, not 25 percent less.

Boulevard, 220 Diarrassouba traffic fatality, 207–8 Harlem River, 145 Harris, Patti, 228 Hasidim, and Kent Avenue bike lane, 162, 163 Hazen, Don, 12 Helmets, bike, 150, 190–91, 222–24 Helsinki, “Mobility as a Service,” 287–88 Hendy, Peter, 35 Henry Street, 258 Herald Square, 85, 92–94, 100–101 Heyward, Leon, 123 Hidalgo, Anne, 70 High Line, 20, 83, 292, 294 Highway lane widths, 49–51, 54 Highway system, 15, 16, 28, 183 Highway Trust Fund, 27 Hindy, Steve, 230 Holland Tunnel, 44 Hollywood, 69–70 Homicides gun, 209 in Medellín, 110 Horticultural Society, 125 Housing costs and density, 25–26 Houston, Texas population, 36 urban planning, 36 Houston Street, 11 Hudson River Greenway, 230 Hudson Street bike lane, 21, 21–22 Hurricane Sandy, 189–90, 278–80 Hylan Boulevard, 268 I Iconic streets, 3. See also specific streets “Induced” demand, 62–63 Infrastructure, 265–80 bridges, 266–67, 267, 271–72 crisis in America, 266–67, 269 lighting, 272–73 parking, 273–77 paving asphalt, 267, 269–71 Staten Island, 267–69, 271 trucking, 277–78 Institute of Transportation Development Policy (ITDP), 276–77 Institute of Transportation Engineers, 30 Intersections model street, 49–50, 50 rearranging complex model street, 59, 60, 61 rearranging model street, 52–53, 54, 55–56 traffic signals and signs, 12, 38–39 Interstate 405 (California), 47–48, 62, 65 Interstate Highway, 15, 16, 28, 183 Interstate Highway Act of 1956, 16 Iraq war, 208–9 Istanbul, Taksim Square, 3 J Jackson, Kenneth, 18 Jacobs, Jane, 8–10, 11, 18–19, 20–21 battle between Robert Moses and, 9–10, 12, 18 on street life, 9–10, 11, 19, 20–21 Jane’s Lane (Hudson Street), 21, 21–22 Jardín Circunvalar, 115 Jarvis Avenue, 147–48 “Jaywalking,” 65 Jay-Z, 118–19 Jersey barriers, 140, 142 Jewel Avenue, traffic fatalities, 220 Johannesburg, 117 Johnson, Boris, 70 Jubilee Year 2016, 283 K Kayden, Jerold, xvi Kelly, Mary Beth, 230 Kelly, Ray, 156–57, 174 Kent Avenue bike lane, 144, 162–64 Kerouac, Jack, 273 Koch, Ed, 12, 14, 152–53 L LaHood, Ray, 31, 219 Lander, Brad, 172 “Latent” demand, 62–63 La Vorgna, Marc, 174 LED lighting, 272 Legible London, 129, 132 Leguizamo, John, 219 Lerner, Jaime, 234 Lighting, 272–73 Lincoln Center, 15 Lincoln Tunnel, 44, 242 Litman, Todd, 28 Little Italy, 75 Lombard Street, 3 London bike lanes, 70 bike lane sabotage attacks, 146 bike share, 191, 192 congestion pricing, 42 street map signs, 129, 132 sustainability plans, 35 Trafalgar Square, 3 London 2012 Summer Olympics, 35 London Plan, 35 London School of Economics, 28 Long Island Railroad, 240 Look!


One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger by Matthew Yglesias

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airport security, assortative mating, Big Tech, Boeing 737 MAX, Boris Johnson, British Empire, business logic, carbon footprint, carbon tax, classic study, collective bargaining, Colonization of Mars, congestion charging, congestion pricing, coronavirus, COVID-19, cross-subsidies, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, drive until you qualify, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, gentrification, global pandemic, Greta Thunberg, high-speed rail, housing crisis, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Induced demand, industrial cluster, Kowloon Walled City, low interest rates, mandatory minimum, mass immigration, Mercator projection, minimum wage unemployment, moral panic, New Urbanism, open borders, open immigration, plutocrats, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, secular stagnation, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, Silicon Valley, social distancing, superstar cities, tech worker, the built environment, Thomas Malthus, transit-oriented development, white flight, working-age population, Yogi Berra

Fundamentally, however, America needs to get back to basics on both roads and trains in terms of understanding what we’re trying to accomplish. What new stuff is for To most drivers annoyed by traffic jams, the intuitive answer is to build more or wider highways. The contemporary left tends to critique this notion by invoking the concept of induced demand. The way this works is that the congested state of a highway is a good reason not to drive on it. If you widen the highway and it gets more congested, that encourages more people to live on the farther-out portions of the route, and soon enough the new lanes are filled. This is true as far as it goes, but it also applies to trains.


pages: 342 words: 72,927

Transport for Humans: Are We Nearly There Yet? by Pete Dyson, Rory Sutherland

Abraham Maslow, Alan Greenspan, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, behavioural economics, bitcoin, Black Swan, Boeing 747, BRICs, butterfly effect, car-free, carbon footprint, Charles Babbage, choice architecture, cognitive bias, cognitive load, coronavirus, COVID-19, Crossrail, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, decarbonisation, demand response, Diane Coyle, digital map, driverless car, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, fake news, functional fixedness, gender pay gap, George Akerlof, gig economy, global supply chain, Goodhart's law, Greta Thunberg, Gödel, Escher, Bach, high-speed rail, hive mind, Hyperloop, Induced demand, informal economy, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, lockdown, longitudinal study, loss aversion, low cost airline, Lyft, megaproject, meta-analysis, Network effects, nudge unit, Ocado, overview effect, Paul Samuelson, performance metric, pneumatic tube, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, remote working, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Rory Sutherland, Sapir-Whorf hypothesis, selection bias, Skype, smart transportation, social distancing, South Sea Bubble, systems thinking, TED Talk, the map is not the territory, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, urban planning, Veblen good, When a measure becomes a target, yield management, zero-sum game

A detailed reaction to the absence of seatback tables is documented in R. Mansfield. 2016. How can you design a train with so many mistakes? Blog post, 29 July (https://bit.ly/3yesNWh). 2* Planners are also vulnerable to counter-intuitive effects. It might seem like adding lanes should ease congestion, but in fact that extra space induces demand (often from local traffic) that quickly fills the space. The result: the jams return, but even larger than before. This goes beyond human choice. The effect was predicted computationally by German mathematician Dietrich Braess in 1968 for electrical circuits and biological systems. More is not always faster. 3 R.


pages: 1,409 words: 205,237

Architecting Modern Data Platforms: A Guide to Enterprise Hadoop at Scale by Jan Kunigk, Ian Buss, Paul Wilkinson, Lars George

Amazon Web Services, barriers to entry, bitcoin, business intelligence, business logic, business process, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, continuous integration, create, read, update, delete, data science, database schema, Debian, deep learning, DevOps, domain-specific language, fault tolerance, Firefox, FOSDEM, functional programming, Google Chrome, Induced demand, information security, Infrastructure as a Service, Internet of things, job automation, Kickstarter, Kubernetes, level 1 cache, loose coupling, microservices, natural language processing, Network effects, platform as a service, single source of truth, source of truth, statistical model, vertical integration, web application

In addition, many organizations have a backlog of potential workloads that are suppressed by the inability of their existing systems to handle them. After a highly flexible and scalable modern platform is introduced, that latent demand finds an outlet. After cluster capacity becomes available, new workloads arrive to exploit it. In economic theory, this effect is known as induced demand. Implementing Cluster Growth Modern data platforms, such as Spark and Hadoop, may have horizontal scalability as a core architectural principle, but adding nodes can still be challenging. In many enterprises, the procurement and installation of cluster servers requires the effective cooperation of multiple teams, which may include purchasing, datacenter operations, networking, and system administration—before we even consider platform software installation and configuration.

rack-mount form factors, Server Form Factors sequential I/O performance for disks, Sequential I/O performance-Sequential I/O performance identity and access management (IAM), Assessing the Riskcredentials, using in Amazon S3, Amazon Simple Storage Service frameworks offered by vendors, Identity and Access Management policies in GCP Cloud Storage, GCP Cloud Storage identity management providers, Identity management providersActive Directory (AD), Microsoft Azure integration in automated provisioning in the cloud, Integrating with a Kerberos KDC integration with, Integration with Identity Management Providers-Summarycertificate management, Certificate Management-Automation integration areas, Integration Areas integration providers, Integration Providers integration scenarios, Integration Scenarios-Scenario 3: Running a Spark Job Kerberos integration, Kerberos Integration-Corporate KDC LDAP integration, LDAP Integration-SSSD options for Hadoop, Identity Provider Options for Hadoop-Option C: On-Premises ID Servicescloud-only self-contained ID services, Option A: Cloud-Only Self-Contained ID Services cloud-only shared ID services, Option B: Cloud-Only Shared ID Services on-premises ID services, Option C: On-Premises ID Services provided by Microsoft, Microsoft Azure Impala, The role of the x86 architectureauthorization in, Impala edge node interactions with, Impala high availability, Impala-Deployment considerationsarchitecting for, Architecting for HA catalog server, Catalog server deployment considerations, Deployment considerations Impala daemons, Impala daemons statestore, Statestore overview, Apache Impala query sessions in Hue, Hue resources for continued reading, Going deeper short-circuit and zero-copy reads, Short-Circuit and Zero-Copy Reads tools for running benchmark tests, Validating Other Components use of Kudu through Impala's SQL interface, Kudu using for scan-heavy workloads, Instances impersonation, Impersonationin Hive, using Sentry, Hive in Oozie interactions with other Hadoop components, Oozie use by Hue with Hadoop services, Hue in-cloud key persistence, Options for Encryption in the Cloud, Recommendations and Summary for Cloud Encryption in-cloud key persistence with local key creation (BYOK), Options for Encryption in the Cloud, Recommendations and Summary for Cloud Encryption in-flight encryption, In-Flight Encryption-Authenticationenabling, Enabling in-Flight Encryption in the cloud, Encrypting Data in Flight in the Cloud SASL quality of protection, SASL Quality of Protection TLS encryption, TLS Encryption in-rack cooling devices, Cooling in-row cooling devices, Cooling induced demand, The Drivers of Cluster Growth InfiniBand (IB), Layer 1 Recommendations information architecture (IA), Many Distributed Systems infrastructure as a service (IaaS), Database Integration Optionsand PaaS Hadoop, Hadoop Distributions automated provisioning of clusters, Automated Provisioning VMWare, VMware and Pivotal Cloud Foundry infrastructure as code (IaC), Automated Provisioning infrastructure layers (datacenter), affecting Hadoop, Basic Datacenter Concepts ingestion, Ingestionand intercluster connectivity in datacenters, Ingest and Intercluster Connectivity-Hardwarehardware, Hardware software, Software ingestion proof of concept, Sizing Kudu by storage Oozie, Apache Oozie sizing clusters by ingest rate, Sizing by Ingest Rate streaming ingestion services, Landing Zones using integration framework to transfer data from landing zones, Landing Zones initiator (iSCSI), SANs installationchoices for Hadoop distributions, Installation Choices-Installation Choices process for Hadoop platform, Installation Process-Summary instance storage, Compute availability, Encryption in AWS instances, Compute Virtualization, Compute availabilityavailability in public cloud solutions, Instance availability AWS instance types, AWS instance types choosing for public cloud cluster implementations, Instancescomparison of instances, Instances cloud-provided images, security of, Assessing the Risk configuration for long-lived clusters, Instance configuration egress bandwidth per instance in GCP, Network Architecture instance (ephemeral) storage in AWS EC2, AWS storage options instance types in Azure, Azure instance types instance types in GCP GCE, Instance types network performance per instance type in Azure, Network Architecture network throughput per type in AWS, Network Architecture provisioning for long-lived clusters, Instance provisioning roles in Amazon EC2, Instance roles instruction set extensions (x86), The role of the x86 architecture integration frameworks, Landing Zones Intel ISA library, Write performance Intel's SR-IOV capabilities, Instances Intel-based server processors, The role of the x86 architecture Intelligent Platform Management Interface (IPMI), Operating Systemsexample implementations, Operating Systems inter-processor links, Commodity Servers, CPU Specifications inter-rack throughput, Throughput under load interaction patterns (users and cluster services), Interaction Patterns internet gateways, Network Architecture intra-rack throughput, Throughput under load inverted indexes, Apache Solr IP addressesresolution of hostnames to, preferring DNS over /etc/hosts, Layer 3 Recommendations static allocation in Layer 3, Layer 3 Recommendations using IPv4 instead of IPv6, Layer 3 Recommendations using private address ranges in Layer 3, Layer 3 Recommendations virtual IP, Virtual IP iperf3 tool, measuring network throughput, Measuring throughput-Throughput under load IPv6, disabling on Hadoop cluster machines, OS Configuration for Hadoop Ironic component (OpenStack Sahara), Life Cycle and Storage ISA-L coder, Write performance iSCSI, SANsCeph cluster running iSCSI gateways, Remote block storage isolationin do it yourself private cloud solution, Isolation in OpenShift private cloud solutions, Isolation in OpenStack, Isolation in private cloud solutions, Solutions for Private Clouds J Java, Web UIscoder, Write performance encryption types, Kerberos Clients Kerberos integration, Kerberos Clients keytool utility, Converting Certificates librados library in Ceph, Ceph storage systems and, Everything Is Java TLS and, TLS and Java x86 processor architecture and, The role of the x86 architecture Java Authentication and Authorization Service (JAAS), Kerberos over HTTP Java Generic Security Service (JGSS), Kerberos over HTTP Java KeyStore (JKS), TLS and Java, Converting Certificatesgenerating from P12 certificate, Converting Certificates JBOD (just a bunch of disks), Storage Controllers JDBC (Java Database Connectivity), Programmatic Accessuse in Hive, Hive JMeter, Validating Other Components JournalNodes, HA configurationsdedicated disks for, Deployment recommendations roles and interactions, Quorum Journal Manager mode JSONAPI messages in GCS, Storage options bucket policies in Amazon S3, Amazon Simple Storage Service returned by Cloudera Manager API, Cloudera Manager service account credentials in GCP, Service account jumbo frames, Layer 2 Recommendations, OS Configuration for Hadoop, Measuring throughput jump servers, Administration Gateways Jupyter Notebook, Web UIs JupyterHub, Notebooks just a bunch of disks (JBOD), Storage Controllers, Optimized Server Configurations JVMs (Java Virtual Machines), Why is NUMA important for big data?


pages: 290 words: 85,847

A Brief History of Motion: From the Wheel, to the Car, to What Comes Next by Tom Standage

accelerated depreciation, active transport: walking or cycling, autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-city movement, bike sharing, car-free, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Chris Urmson, City Beautiful movement, Clapham omnibus, congestion charging, coronavirus, COVID-19, deep learning, Didi Chuxing, Donald Shoup, driverless car, Elaine Herzberg, Elon Musk, flex fuel, Ford Model T, Ford paid five dollars a day, garden city movement, General Motors Futurama, Ida Tarbell, Induced demand, interchangeable parts, invention of the wheel, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, jitney, Joan Didion, John Zimmer (Lyft cofounder), Lewis Mumford, lockdown, Lyft, Marshall McLuhan, minimum wage unemployment, oil shock, Own Your Own Home, peak oil, prompt engineering, Ralph Nader, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, safety bicycle, self-driving car, social distancing, Steve Jobs, streetcar suburb, tech bro, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unbiased observer, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, urban sprawl, Victor Gruen, W. E. B. Du Bois, walkable city, white flight, wikimedia commons, Yom Kippur War, Zipcar

Similar revolts followed elsewhere. In some cases, as in Baltimore and Washington, D.C., they were led by alliances between Black and white community groups who opposed freeway construction. America’s highway-construction boom came to an end in the 1970s, as opposition mounted and the notion of “induced demand”—the realization that new road capacity attracts more cars—became more widely known and accepted, under the mantra “you can’t build your way out of congestion.” Moreover, the long-held assumption that commuting patterns were from suburb to city center and back again was no longer true as American cities spread out.


The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future by Michael Levi

addicted to oil, American energy revolution, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business cycle, carbon tax, Carmen Reinhart, crony capitalism, deglobalization, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fixed income, Ford Model T, full employment, geopolitical risk, global supply chain, hiring and firing, hydraulic fracturing, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), It's morning again in America, Jevons paradox, Kenneth Rogoff, manufacturing employment, off-the-grid, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Solyndra, South China Sea, stock buybacks

Qing Su, “A Quantile Regression Analysis of the Rebound Effect: Evidence from the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey in the United States,” Energy Policy 45, pp. 368–377 (2012); Kent M. Hymel, Kenneth 238 • NOTES FOR PAGES 139–141 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. A. Small, and Kurt Van Dender, “Induced Demand and Rebound Effects in Road Transport,” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 44, no. 10 (2010). Tad W. Patzek, “Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle,” Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 23, no. 6 (2004); David Pimentel and Tad W. Patzek, “Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass, and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower,” Natural Resources Research 14, no. 1 (2005); Yang Yi et al., “Replacing Gasoline with Corn Ethanol Results in Significant Environmental Problem-Shifting,” Environmental Science and Technology 46, no. 7 (2012).


pages: 320 words: 97,509

Doctored: The Disillusionment of an American Physician by Sandeep Jauhar

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, delayed gratification, illegal immigration, income inequality, independent contractor, Induced demand, medical malpractice, moral hazard, obamacare, PalmPilot, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, source of truth, stem cell, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Yogi Berra

These “appropriate-use criteria” (bolstered by “comparative effectiveness research”) are essential for educating physicians and patients alike about medical services that are wasteful and should be avoided. (By employing these criteria, cardiologists have been able—or forced—to decrease their use of imaging by 20 percent.) In fact, better-informed patients might be the most potent restraint on overutilization. A large percentage of health care costs is a consequence of induced demand—that is, physicians persuading patients to consume services they would not have chosen had they been better educated. If patients were more involved in medical decision-making (admittedly not easy to put into practice in the hyperspeed that is contemporary American medicine, and also obviously at odds with regulation-driven P4P care), there would be more constraints on doctors’ behavior, thus decreasing the possibility of unnecessary testing.


pages: 417 words: 109,367

The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Anthropocene, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, biodiversity loss, business cycle, carbon tax, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, commodity super cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, disinformation, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Ford Model T, Garrett Hardin, Gary Taubes, Great Leap Forward, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, negative emissions, Neolithic agricultural revolution, ocean acidification, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, Peter Calthorpe, phenotype, planetary scale, precautionary principle, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, Recombinant DNA, rent-seeking, rewilding, Stewart Brand, synthetic biology, systematic bias, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, Tragedy of the Commons, two and twenty, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve

In addition, Doces cites a 2006 study analyzing the effects on globalization on women in 180 countries that shows “increasing international exchange and communication create new opportunities for income-generating work and expose countries to norms that, in recent decades, have promoted equality for women.”46 As a result, trade-induced demand for human capital expands to include women, further cutting fertility rates in poor countries. This conclusion is further bolstered by a 2005 study by University of Helsinki economists Ulla Lehmijoki and Tapio Palokangas; according to this study, in the short run trade liberalization boosts birth rates, but in the long run it cuts fertility.


The Culture of Narcissism: American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations by Christopher Lasch

Abraham Maslow, classic study, cuban missile crisis, delayed gratification, desegregation, feminist movement, full employment, Future Shock, George Santayana, Herman Kahn, impulse control, Induced demand, invisible hand, Kitchen Debate, Marshall McLuhan, Maslow's hierarchy, mass immigration, means of production, Norman Mailer, planned obsolescence, prosperity theology / prosperity gospel / gospel of success, road to serfdom, scientific management, Scientific racism, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, The Theory of the Leisure Class by Thorstein Veblen, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen, union organizing, upwardly mobile, urban renewal, yellow journalism

Having achieved a complete separation of handwork and brain work , management monopolizes technical knowledge Paternalism Without Father : 235 234 : The Culture of Narcissism tion, tries to present the professional as the successor to the capitalist. The ideology of "compassion he says, serves the class in terest of the "post-industrial surplus of functionaries who, in the manner of industrialists who earlier turned to advertising, induce demand for their own products Professional self-aggrandizement however, grew up side by side with the advertising industry and must be seen as another and reduces the worker to a human machine; but the administra- " tion and continual elaboration of this knowledge require an evergrowing managerial apparatus, itself organized on the principles , of the factory with its intricate subdivision of tasks.


pages: 436 words: 114,278

Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices by Robert McNally

"World Economic Forum" Davos, Alan Greenspan, American energy revolution, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bear Stearns, Bretton Woods, collective bargaining, credit crunch, energy security, energy transition, geopolitical risk, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, Ida Tarbell, index fund, Induced demand, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, joint-stock company, market clearing, market fundamentalism, megaproject, moral hazard, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price discrimination, price elasticity of demand, price stability, sovereign wealth fund, subprime mortgage crisis, Suez canal 1869, Suez crisis 1956, transfer pricing, vertical integration

It is possible the unmanaged interplay global supply and demand will automatically yield stable prices, but it is more likely future oil trends will resemble those in the past and feature vast shifts, sustained imbalances, upheaval, and surprises. In the short term, oil is likely to range between shut-in costs—well below $30—and prices that induce demand slowdowns if not recessions—well above $100. Price gyrations through this range would destabilize not only our oil industry, but broader economic and financial sectors as well as geopolitics. Investors, officials, and thinkers will need to innovate and implement coping strategies to deal with the mixed blessing of an unmanaged oil market.


pages: 432 words: 124,635

Happy City: Transforming Our Lives Through Urban Design by Charles Montgomery

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, Abraham Maslow, accelerated depreciation, agricultural Revolution, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Apollo 11, behavioural economics, Bernie Madoff, Boeing 747, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon credits, carbon footprint, centre right, City Beautiful movement, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, data science, Donald Shoup, East Village, edge city, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, experimental subject, food desert, Frank Gehry, General Motors Futurama, gentrification, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, license plate recognition, McMansion, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, New Urbanism, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, power law, rent control, restrictive zoning, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, science of happiness, Seaside, Florida, Silicon Valley, starchitect, streetcar suburb, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transit-oriented development, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban sprawl, wage slave, white flight, World Values Survey, zero-sum game, Zipcar

The city’s new metric: “conversation cycling infrastructure,” or routes that are wide enough so that two people can bike side by side and chat, making the commute just a little more like a social visit. All of which raises a curious parallel: just as North American cities created more automobile traffic through decades of road building, Copenhagen has induced demand for other ways of moving, especially cycling, by making streets more complete. Are cities that pursue new means of mobility heading for congestion 2.0? Well, as Anthony Downs pointed out, congestion is an entirely natural feature of any vibrant city. So we should differentiate between types of congestion.


pages: 371 words: 122,273

Tenants: The People on the Frontline of Britain's Housing Emergency by Vicky Spratt

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, basic income, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Black Lives Matter, Boris Johnson, British Empire, Buy land – they’re not making it any more, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, centre right, clean water, coronavirus, COVID-19, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, edge city, en.wikipedia.org, full employment, garden city movement, gender pay gap, gentrification, gig economy, global pandemic, housing crisis, Housing First, illegal immigration, income inequality, Induced demand, Jane Jacobs, Jeremy Corbyn, land bank, land reform, land value tax, lockdown, longitudinal study, low interest rates, mass immigration, mega-rich, meta-analysis, negative equity, Overton Window, Own Your Own Home, plutocrats, quantitative easing, rent control, Right to Buy, Rishi Sunak, Rutger Bregman, side hustle, social distancing, stop buying avocado toast, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, urban planning, urban renewal, working-age population, young professional, zero-sum game

One of the town’s leading estate agents, David Plaister Ltd, told the publication that ‘demand was outstripping supply with many properties selling in just a matter of days’, adding that ‘out of every ten properties we sell, between six and eight are to people from Bristol’. This is yet another example of how homeownership and private renting interact, and of how the housing market can shift quickly when an area suddenly becomes desirable and those on low incomes are priced out. But before the coronavirus-induced demand for fresh seaside air, Weston’s high numbers of private renters on low incomes, combined with a lack of social housing, created the perfect conditions for buy-to-let slum landlords to swoop in at the lower end of the market. They knew that they had a captive tenant base and a guaranteed income through Housing Benefit, but that little would be asked of them by their tenants, who had few rights anyway but were probably not aware of those that they did have.


Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health by Laurie Garrett

accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, biofilm, clean water, collective bargaining, contact tracing, desegregation, discovery of DNA, discovery of penicillin, disinformation, Drosophila, employer provided health coverage, Fall of the Berlin Wall, germ theory of disease, global pandemic, Gregor Mendel, illegal immigration, indoor plumbing, Induced demand, John Snow's cholera map, Jones Act, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, mass incarceration, Maui Hawaii, means of production, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mouse model, Nelson Mandela, new economy, nuclear winter, Oklahoma City bombing, phenotype, profit motive, Project Plowshare, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Right to Buy, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, stem cell, the scientific method, urban decay, urban renewal, War on Poverty, working poor, Works Progress Administration, yellow journalism

It was the doctor. And the doctor decided how much to charge for the time he or she spent studying the test results and treating the patient. From the point of view of economists, this was insane. It meant consumers could not behave as consumers, shop around, choose not to buy, or to buy elsewhere. And doctors induced demand. In other words, the supplier manipulated demand.360 After creation of Part B of Medicare, the trend spiraled completely out of control.361 This constituted a market failure because there was no genuine competition and consumers could not “vote with their feet and paychecks,” opting out of treatment.

Feldman, R., “Competition among physicians, revisited.” Journal of Health, Politics, Policy and Law 13 (1988): 239–261; McMenamin, P., “A crime storm from Medicare Part B.” Health Affairs (Winter 1988): 94–101; and Rice, T. H., “The impact of changing Medicare reimbursement rates on physician-induced demand.” Medical Care 21 (1983): 803–815. 362. Cooper, B. and Rice, D., The Economic Cost of Illness Revisited. Washington, D.C.: National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Public Health Service, HEW, 1976. 363. Source: Health Care Financing Administration. 364. Ibid. 365. Dorothy Rice kindly provided me with her data on June 10, 1983, during an interview.


pages: 512 words: 165,704

Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (And What It Says About Us) by Tom Vanderbilt

Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Boeing 747, call centre, cellular automata, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cognitive dissonance, computer vision, congestion charging, congestion pricing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, DARPA: Urban Challenge, Donald Shoup, endowment effect, extreme commuting, fundamental attribution error, Garrett Hardin, Google Earth, hedonic treadmill, Herman Kahn, hindsight bias, hive mind, human-factors engineering, if you build it, they will come, impulse control, income inequality, Induced demand, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, Kenneth Arrow, lake wobegon effect, loss aversion, megacity, Milgram experiment, Nash equilibrium, PalmPilot, power law, Sam Peltzman, Silicon Valley, SimCity, statistical model, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Timothy McVeigh, traffic fines, Tragedy of the Commons, traumatic brain injury, ultimatum game, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce, working poor

A study in California found that a 1 percent increase in lane-miles creates an immediate increase in vehicle-miles traveled of 0. 2 percent. See Mark Hansen and Huang Yuanlin, “Road Supply and Traffic in California Urban Areas,” Transportation Research A, vol. 31 (1997), pp. 205–18. Robert B. Noland, a scientist at Imperial College London, has compiled an extensive bibliography of “induced demand” research; it’s available at http://www.vtpi.org/induced_bib.htm. on the affected roads: See S. Cairns, S. Atkins, and P. Goodwin, “Disappearing Traffic? The Story So Far,” Municipal Engineer, vol. 151, no. 1 (March 2002), pp. 13–22. There was an interesting example of this phenomenon in New York City.


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The Rise of the Network Society by Manuel Castells

air traffic controllers' union, Alan Greenspan, Apple II, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, borderless world, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, classic study, complexity theory, computer age, Computer Lib, computerized trading, content marketing, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, declining real wages, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, deskilling, digital capitalism, digital divide, disintermediation, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, edge city, experimental subject, export processing zone, Fairchild Semiconductor, financial deregulation, financial independence, floating exchange rates, future of work, gentrification, global village, Gunnar Myrdal, Hacker Ethic, hiring and firing, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, income inequality, independent contractor, Induced demand, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, intermodal, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, inventory management, Ivan Sutherland, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, job-hopping, John Markoff, John Perry Barlow, Kanban, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, Leonard Kleinrock, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, military-industrial complex, moral panic, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, packet switching, Pearl River Delta, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, popular capitalism, popular electronics, post-Fordism, post-industrial society, Post-Keynesian economics, postindustrial economy, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Recombinant DNA, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Robert Solow, seminal paper, Shenzhen special economic zone , Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social software, South China Sea, South of Market, San Francisco, special economic zone, spinning jenny, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Strategic Defense Initiative, tacit knowledge, technological determinism, Ted Nelson, the built environment, the medium is the message, the new new thing, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, urban renewal, urban sprawl, vertical integration, work culture , zero-sum game

If price elasticities are high, employment losses will be compensated by extra demand from both old and new sectors. 4 Yet the critical matter is the right mix between process innovation and product innovation. If process innovation progresses faster, a decline in employment will occur, all other factors being equal. If product innovation leads the pace, then newly induced demand could result in higher employment. The problem with such elegant economic analyses is always in the assumptions: all other factors are never equal. Boyer himself acknowledges this fact, and then examines the empirical fit of his model, observing, again, a wide range of variation between different industries and countries.