longitudinal study

231 results back to index


The Impact of Early Life Trauma on Health and Disease by Lanius, Ruth A.; Vermetten, Eric; Pain, Clare

conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, delayed gratification, epigenetics, false memory syndrome, impulse control, intermodal, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, p-value, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), social intelligence, Socratic dialogue, theory of mind, twin studies, yellow journalism

Another important reality is that prospective studies and longitudinal studies (as referred to in Chs. 2 and 4) cannot occur in children in the isolation of intervention. The mandatory reporting requirements in many legal systems mean that any child who is identified as being subject to abuse or neglect must be notified to the relevant authorities. As a consequence, any longitudinal study will as much be a documentation of the impact of intervention as of the longitudinal effects and adverse health outcomes. If longitudinal studies are made of populations at risk, it is highly probable if these are recruited through intervention services that these children will be an atypical and in a more severely affected group. Similarly, longitudinal studies of healthy childhood development are unable to make uncontaminated observations about severe abuse and neglect as any children at risk will inevitably be removed from the study environment and mandated interventions provided.

The literature shows instead that infant disorganization and quality of early care each contribute independently to longterm psychological adaptation, and that quality of early care has a more powerful influence overall on negative outcomes than infant attachment disorganization. For example, results from a longitudinal study by the US National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Early Child Care Research Network [46] indicates that quality of caregiver interaction provides greater prediction of later child adjustment than infant attachment behavior itself. In several recent longitudinal studies, quality of early care and maltreatment experiences were assessed prospectively (as well as by young adult selfreport) so that the contribution of quality of early care in infancy on later psychiatric morbidity could be examined separately from experiences of abuse.

Nongenomic transmission across generations of maternal behaviour and stress responses in the rat. Science, 286, 1155–1158. 43. Szyf, M., Weaver, I. and Meaney, M. J. (2007). Maternal care, the epigenome, and phenotypic differences in behaviour. Reproductive Toxicology, 24, 9–19. 44. Carlson, E. A. (1998). A prospective longitudinal study of attachment disorganization/disorientation. Child Development, 69, 1107–1128. 45. Ogawa, J. R., Sroufe, L. A., Weinfeld, N. S., Carlson, E. A. and Egeland, B. (1997). Development and the fragmented self:€Longitudinal study of dissociative symptomatology in a non-clinical sample. Development and Psychopathology, 9, 855–879. 46. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Early Child Care Research Network (2006). Infant–mother attachment classification:€Risk and protection in relation to changing maternal caregiving quality.


pages: 321 words: 92,828

Late Bloomers: The Power of Patience in a World Obsessed With Early Achievement by Rich Karlgaard

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Bernie Madoff, Bob Noyce, Brownian motion, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, experimental economics, fear of failure, financial independence, follow your passion, Frederick Winslow Taylor, hiring and firing, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, Sand Hill Road, science of happiness, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, Toyota Production System, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, working poor

Warner Schaie: K. Warner Schaie, Sherry L. Willis, and Grace I. L. Caskie, “The Seattle Longitudinal Study: Relationship Between Personality and Cognition,” Aging Neuropsychology and Cognition 11, nos. 2–3 (2004): 304–24; K. Warner Schaie, “The Seattle Longitudinal Studies of Adult Intelligence,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 2, no. 6 (1993): 171–75. See also K. Warner Schaie, ed., Longitudinal Studies of Adult Psychological Development (New York: Guilford Press, 1983); K. Warner Schaie, Intellectual Development in Adulthood: The Seattle Longitudinal Study (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996); K. Warner Schaie, Developmental Influences on Adult Intelligence: The Seattle Longitudinal Study (New York: Oxford University Press, 2005); K. Warner Schaie, “Intellectual Development in Adulthood,” in Handbook of the Psychology of Aging, ed.

Now ninety, Schaie says he embarked on his study because he could do it while holding a nighttime job in a print shop across the bay in San Francisco, and because his family doctor had a geriatric practice. Whatever caused young Schaie to become interested in the human brain and aging, he chose the right field. While barely twenty-one, he was already giving lectures at international geriatric conferences. Later as a graduate student at the University of Washington, he launched the project that would define his long career—the Seattle Longitudinal Study. A longitudinal study is one that follows test subjects throughout their lives. Schaie and his research team looked at how life events, such as the death of a spouse or recovery from a physical setback, affected the cognitive abilities of people at different ages. He discovered that many factors can speed up decline, but decline can also be slowed, or even reversed, such as by coming to terms with a spouse’s death.

All these tests are descendants not only of Lewis Terman’s pioneering work but also of his zealous efforts to standardize testing across the population and drive its adoption by key national institutions, including the civil service. Terman wasn’t just an IQ advocate, however, he was also a key researcher. In 1921 he embarked on the Terman Study of the Gifted, the first and now longest-running longitudinal study of high-IQ individuals in psychology. With a team of assistants, he combed California’s public schools with the goal of finding one thousand gifted children to study. In the end, they found more than fifteen hundred, all born between 1900 and 1925, slightly more males than females, most of them white, and nearly all from middle-to-upper-class families. As the decades passed, however, and the gifted test subjects passed through their prime productive years, it became increasingly apparent that these individuals weren’t really special after all—they just had higher IQs.


pages: 741 words: 199,502

Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class by Charles Murray

23andMe, affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Asperger Syndrome, assortative mating, basic income, bioinformatics, Cass Sunstein, correlation coefficient, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, feminist movement, glass ceiling, Gunnar Myrdal, income inequality, Kenneth Arrow, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, p-value, phenotype, publication bias, quantitative hedge fund, randomized controlled trial, replication crisis, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, school vouchers, Scientific racism, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, social intelligence, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, twin studies, universal basic income, working-age population

Sample: Meta-analysis of College Board data Correlation N: SES–test: +.42 SES–grade: +.22 Test–grade: +.53 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.50 SES–grade controlling for test: –.01 Sample: Meta-analysis of studies with composite SES Correlation N: 17,235 SES–test: +.15 SES–grade: +.09 Test–grade: +.37 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.36 SES–grade controlling for test: +.03 Individual longitudinal studies: 1995. Nat’l Study of Law School Performance Correlation N: 3,375 SES–test: +.16 SES–grade: +.07 Test–grade: +.38 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.38 SES–grade controlling for test: +.01 Individual longitudinal studies: Harvard Study of the Class of 1964–65 Correlation N: 486 SES–test: +.07 SES–grade: +.05 Test–grade: +.30 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.29 SES–grade controlling for test: +.03 Individual longitudinal studies: LSAC Nat’l Longitudinal Bar Passage Study Correlation N: 19,264 SES–test: +.13 SES–grade: +.05 Test–grade: +.35 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.35 SES–grade controlling for test: +.01 Individual longitudinal studies: Nat’l Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 Correlation N: 6,314 SES–test: +.40 SES–grade: +.10 Test–grade: +.24 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.23 SES–grade controlling for test: +.02 Individual longitudinal studies: Nat’l Longitudinal Study of the Class of 1972 Correlation N: 5,735 SES–test: +.30 SES–grade: +.04 Test–grade: +.31 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.31 SES–grade controlling for test: –.01 Individual longitudinal studies: Project Talent Correlation N: 749 SES–test: +.18 SES–grade: +.05 Test–grade: +.30 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.29 SES–grade controlling for test: +.01 37.

Nat’l Study of Law School Performance Correlation N: 3,375 SES–test: +.16 SES–grade: +.07 Test–grade: +.38 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.38 SES–grade controlling for test: +.01 Individual longitudinal studies: Harvard Study of the Class of 1964–65 Correlation N: 486 SES–test: +.07 SES–grade: +.05 Test–grade: +.30 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.29 SES–grade controlling for test: +.03 Individual longitudinal studies: LSAC Nat’l Longitudinal Bar Passage Study Correlation N: 19,264 SES–test: +.13 SES–grade: +.05 Test–grade: +.35 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.35 SES–grade controlling for test: +.01 Individual longitudinal studies: Nat’l Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 Correlation N: 6,314 SES–test: +.40 SES–grade: +.10 Test–grade: +.24 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.23 SES–grade controlling for test: +.02 Individual longitudinal studies: Nat’l Longitudinal Study of the Class of 1972 Correlation N: 5,735 SES–test: +.30 SES–grade: +.04 Test–grade: +.31 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.31 SES–grade controlling for test: –.01 Individual longitudinal studies: Project Talent Correlation N: 749 SES–test: +.18 SES–grade: +.05 Test–grade: +.30 Partial correlation Test–grade controlling for SES: +.29 SES–grade controlling for test: +.01 37. I mark the beginning of this literature with Jencks, Smith, Acland et al. (1972), though an argument could be made for Coleman et al. (1966). 38. Other examples are Jencks (1979); Korenman and Winship (2000); Firkowska-Mankiewicz (2002); and Richards and Sacker (2003). 39.

The mean VR for the 10 most gender-equal countries on the Gender Inequality Index (GII) was 1.10; for the ten most gender-unequal countries, it was 1.03. But the relationship was not strong or consistent. 52. The six studies were Project Talent, with a sample of 73,425 15-year-olds (1960); the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (1972), with a sample of 16,860 12th-grade students; the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (1980), with a sample of 11,914 noninstitutionalized 15-to 22-year-olds; the High School and Beyond Study (1980) with a sample of 25,069 12th-grade students; the National Educational Longitudinal Study (1992) with a sample of 24,599 8th-grade students as of 1988; and the National Assessments of Educational Progress from 1971 to 1992, with varying but extremely large samples of 17-year-olds enrolled in school. Hedges and Nowell (1995). 53.


pages: 358 words: 95,115

NurtureShock: New Thinking About Children by Po Bronson, Ashley Merryman

affirmative action, Columbine, delayed gratification, desegregation, hedonic treadmill, impulse control, index card, job satisfaction, lake wobegon effect, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial, social intelligence, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, theory of mind

Dweck, “Implicit Theories of Intelligence Predict Achievement Across an Adolescent Transition: A Longitudinal Study and an Intervention,” Child Development, vol. 78, no. 1, pp. 246–263 (2007). Campanella Bracken, Cheryl, Leo W. Jeffres, and Kimberly A. Neuendorf, “Criticism or Praise? The Impact of Verbal Versus Text-Only Computer Feedback on Social Presence, Intrinsic Motivation, and Recall,” CyberPsychology & Behavior, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 349–357 (2004). “Chat Wrap-Up: Student Motivation, What Works, What Doesn’t,” Education Week, vol. 26, no. 3, p. 38 (2006). Cole, David A., Joan M. Martin, Lachlan A. Peeke, A. D. Seroczynski, and Jonathan Fier, “Children’s Over- and Underestimation of Academic Competence: A Longitudinal Study of Gender Difference, Depression and Anxiety,” Child Development, vol. 70, no. 2, pp. 459–473 (1999).

., “WISC-IV—Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children—Fourth Edition, WISC-IV Comprehensive PowerPoint Presentation” (Undated). Schwartz, Edward M., and Anna S. Elonen, “IQ and the Myth of Stability: A 16-Year Longitudinal Study of Variations in Intelligence Test Performance,” Journal of Clinical Psychology, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 687–694 (1975). Shaw, Philip, “Intelligence and the Developing Human Brain,” BioEssays, vol. 29, no. 10, pp. 962–973 (2007). Shaw, P., D. Greenstein, J. Lerch, L. Clasen, R. Lenroot, N. Gogtay, A. Evans, J. Rapoport, and J. Giedd, “Intellectual Ability and Cortical Development in Children and Adolescents,” Nature, vol. 440, no. 7084, pp. 676–679 (2006). Sontag, L. W., C. T. Baker, and V. L. Nelson, “Mental Growth and Personality Development: A Longitudinal Study,” Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development, vol. 23, no. 2 (Serial No. 68) (1958). Sowell, Elizabeth R., Paul M.

We might imagine we’re creating color-blind environments for children, but differences in skin color or hair or weight are like differences in gender—they’re plainly visible. We don’t have to label them for them to become salient. Even if no teacher or parent mentions race, kids will use skin color on their own, the same way they use T-shirt colors. Within the past decade or so, developmental psychologists have begun a handful of longitudinal studies to determine exactly when children develop bias—the general premise being that the earlier the bias manifests itself, the more likely it is driven by developmental processes. Dr. Phyllis Katz, then a professor at the University of Colorado, led one such study—following 100 black children and 100 white children for their first six years. She tested these children and their parents nine times during those six years, with the first test at six months old.


pages: 414 words: 119,116

The Health Gap: The Challenge of an Unequal World by Michael Marmot

active measures, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Atul Gawande, Bonfire of the Vanities, Broken windows theory, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Celtic Tiger, centre right, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, Doha Development Round, epigenetics, financial independence, future of work, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, illegal immigration, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, Kenneth Rogoff, Kibera, labour market flexibility, longitudinal study, lump of labour, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, New Urbanism, obamacare, paradox of thrift, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, RAND corporation, road to serfdom, Simon Kuznets, Socratic dialogue, structural adjustment programs, the built environment, The Spirit Level, trickle-down economics, twin studies, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, working poor

Other studies have found moderate physical activity to be protective against cognitive decline, again taking into account the possibility that cognitive decline precedes lack of interest in physical activity.21 A study of former US nurses aged seventy and above assessed habitual physical activity nine years before looking at the rate of cognitive decline, and still they found that physical activity, even just walking, was protective.22 I have shown my bias by not giving the other side of the story of which comes first: whether decrease of activity or cognitive decline. One longitudinal study of the elderly, the Victoria Longitudinal Study, shows evidence that the relation between activity and cognitive performance goes both ways.23 Certainly, people who were active socially, cognitively and physically had less subsequent decline in cognitive performance, but there was also clear evidence that it goes the other way too. Decline in cognitive performance can lead to reduced participation in activities.

Available from: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm. 5Demakakos P, Cooper R, Hamer M, de Oliveira C, Hardy R, Breeze E. The Bidirectional Association between Depressive Symptoms and Gait Speed: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). PLoS One. 2013; 8(7): e68632; Studenski S, Perera S, Patel K, Rosano C, Faulkner K, Inzitari M, et al. Gait speed and survival in older adults. JAMA: the Journal of the American Medical Association. 2011; 305(1): 50–8. 6Steptoe A, Demakakos P, de Oliveira C. The Psychological Well-Being, Health and Functioning of Older People in England. In: Banks J, Nazroo J, Steptoe A, editors. The Dynamics of Ageing, Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2002–2010 (Wave 5). London: Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2012. 7Carstensen L, Fried L. The Meaning of Old Age. In: Beard J, Biggs S, Bloom D, Fried L, Hogan P, Kalache A, et al., editors.

JAMA: the Journal of the American Medical Association. 2004; 292(12): 1454–61. 23Small BJ, Dixon RA, McArdle JJ, Grimm KJ. Do changes in lifestyle engagement moderate cognitive decline in normal aging? Evidence from the Victoria Longitudinal Study. Neuropsychology. 2012; 26(2): 144–55. 24Holt-Lunstad J, Smith TB, Layton JB. Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review. PlosMed. 2010; 7(7): e1000316. 25Banks J, Breeze E, Lessof C, Nazroo J. Retirement, Health and Relationships of the Older Population in England: The 2004 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (Wave 2). 2006. 26Fried L. Making aging positive: The Atlantic, 2014 [updated 06/2014, 22/ 12/2014]. Available from: http://www.theatlantic.com/health/print/2014/06/valuing-the-elderly-improving-public-health/371245/. 27Banks et al.


Psychopathy: An Introduction to Biological Findings and Their Implications by Andrea L. Glenn, Adrian Raine

epigenetics, longitudinal study, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), statistical model, theory of mind, twin studies

Understanding how different risk factors interact with each other will prove to be crucial in our understanding of how psychopathy develops. Many of the studies we have reviewed examine a single biological variable at one time, yet the reality is much more nuanced and complex. Future biological research on psychopathy will also benefit from longitudinal studies that begin at an early age and follow individuals at numerous time points during development. Most studies conducted to date have examined the neurobiological basis of criminal behavior using cross-sectional data. Longitudinal studies that examine both biological and environmental factors throughout development will help to clarify the causal relationships between these factors. Additional research is also needed to explore the biological factors associated with the different features of psychopathy. It is not clear whether psychopathy represents a unitary construct in which different features share common etiological factors, or whether psychopathy may represent separable and distinct underlying constructs that may co-occur in some individuals (Patrick and Bernat 2009).

Brain imaging studies have highlighted several key brain regions that appear to be hypofunctioning in psychopathy, but have thus far not been able to explain the source of this hypofunctioning. The consistent findings of reduced amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex activity may be a result of an imbalance in cortisol and testosterone levels. Future studies are needed to clarify the role of hormones in psychopathy. It is not clear whether hormones may be altered by environmental factors at some point, or if altered levels exist early in life. Longitudinal studies involving periodic hormone assessments beginning at a very early age and following through to adulthood may help to determine how hormones may contribute to the development of psychopathy. One hypothesis is that there may be some type of “burnout” effect, where chronic stress or other environmental factors overwork the stress response system to the point that it no longer responds properly.

Early studies of psychopathy found reduced responding to orienting stimuli in psychopathic individuals (Hare 1968). One study found that psychopathy-prone adolescents had larger skin conductance responses to an initial tone (Borkovec 1970). In psychopathic adults, Raine and Venables (1988b) found differences in the rise time (i.e., time to reach peak amplitude) of the initial response to verbal sounds. A prospective longitudinal study measuring skin conductance orienting at age 3 found that individuals who scored higher on a self-report psychopathy scale at age 28 demonstrated higher orienting responses at age 3 (Glenn et al. 2007). Finally, in 9- to 10-yearold twins, Isen et al. (2010) found lower skin conductance reactivity to orienting stimuli in boys, but not girls, scoring higher in psychopathic traits. Overall, these results suggest that psychopathy may be associated with reduced orienting responses, though this may be dependent on gender and stage of development.


pages: 459 words: 123,220

Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis by Robert D. Putnam

assortative mating, business cycle, correlation does not imply causation, deindustrialization, demographic transition, desegregation, ending welfare as we know it, epigenetics, full employment, George Akerlof, helicopter parent, impulse control, income inequality, index card, jobless men, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, Occupy movement, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, school choice, selection bias, Socratic dialogue, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the built environment, upwardly mobile, Walter Mischel, white flight, working poor

From 1997 to 2012, the “extracurricular gap” between poor kids and nonpoor kids aged 6–11 nearly doubled, from 15 to 27 percentage points, while the comparable gap among kids aged 12–17 rose from 19 to 29 percentage points.59 Figure 4.3: Growing class gap in participation in school-based extracurriculars, 1972–2002 Sources: National Longitudinal Study of 1972, High School and Beyond (1980), National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002. Figure 4.3 draws on national high school surveys in recent years to illustrate the growing gap for extracurricular activities. Similar gaps have opened up for private music, dance, and art lessons, and for leadership positions on athletic teams. Seniors from affluent backgrounds have served as team captains more than twice as often as classmates from poorer backgrounds, a gap that has nearly doubled during the past several decades.

See also Patrick Wightman and Sheldon Danziger, “Poverty, Intergenerational Mobility, and Young Adult Educational Attainment,” in Investing in Children: Work, Education, and Social Policy in Two Rich Countries, eds. Ariel Kalil, Ron Haskins, and Jenny Chesters (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2012), 208–36. 80. Figure 4.6 is drawn from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002–2012, which has followed a nationally representative sample of the sophomore class of 2002 for a decade: http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/els2002/ and Erich Lauff and Steven J. Ingels, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002): A First Look at 2002 High School Sophomores 10 Years Later (NCES 2014–363), U.S. Department of Education (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2013), accessed June 17, 2014, http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2014/2014363.pdf. Socioeconomic status (SES) here is measured by a combination of parental income, parental education, and parental occupational status.

In fact, all of the factors that we’ve discussed so far in this book—family structure, parenting, childhood development, peer groups, extracurricular opportunities—have contributed to the widening gap in college graduation rates in recent decades, along with the neighborhood and community influences that we shall discuss in the next chapter.82 The burdens on the poor kids have been gathering weight since they were very young. Rising tuition costs and student debt are the final straw, not the main load. Figure 4.6: Climbing the educational ladder (unevenly) Of every 100 potential members of the class of 2004, roughly how many reached each rung? Source: Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002–2012, adjusted for prior dropouts. Figure 4.7 brings this chapter to a close on a sobering note. As the twenty-first century opened, a family’s socioeconomic status (SES) had become even more important than test scores in predicting which eighth graders would graduate from college.83 A generation earlier, social class had played a smaller role, relative to academic ability, in predicting educational attainment.84 Nowadays, high-scoring rich kids are very likely (74 percent) to graduate from college, while low-scoring poor kids almost never do (3 percent).


pages: 327 words: 97,720

Loneliness: Human Nature and the Need for Social Connection by John T. Cacioppo

Alfred Russel Wallace, biofilm, butterfly effect, Celebration, Florida, corporate governance, delayed gratification, experimental subject, impulse control, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, longitudinal study, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, post-industrial society, Rodney Brooks, Ted Kaczynski, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, theory of mind, urban planning, urban renewal, Walter Mischel

The first is a cross-sectional study: You cast a wide net to gather many different types of people, and then you measure a variety of variables at a single point in time. The second is a longitudinal study, which means identifying a certain population and then following its members over a long period, making repeated measurements of certain variables as their lives play out from day to day. The third is random assignment and experimental manipulation. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies can provide a wealth of useful data. The longitudinal approach also controls for a number of additional factors that cannot be dealt with satisfactorily in a cross-sectional study. For instance, whether an adult had a secure or insecure attachment with his mother in infancy may not be something that can be measured reliably now. However, each participant in a longitudinal study serves as her own control—the study follows the same person, after all, and her past remains the same.

However, each participant in a longitudinal study serves as her own control—the study follows the same person, after all, and her past remains the same. In a longitudinal study, then, in which the focus is on changes in loneliness and related variables over time, we separate and evaluate the effects of these changes from those that do not change across time, such as infant attachment style. Still, neither of these approaches can tell us definitely that we have found direct cause and effect. Even if we can demonstrate a strong association between loneliness and certain other factors in a longitudinal design, and even if we have ruled out all known alternative accounts, it does not mean that we have shown convincingly enough to overcome the skepticism of good science that one factor causes another. This is when experimental manipulation becomes particularly useful. To sort out the constellation of variables surrounding loneliness, and to determine what is the most likely cause of what, my colleagues and I used all three approaches.

The surveys of the Ohio State students as well as the manipulations by way of hypnosis showed the effect of loneliness on thoughts, moods, self-regulation, even personal characteristics such as shyness and self-esteem—in the moment. But what about chronic loneliness? Leaving participants in an unpleasant and unhealthful state over time would be exceedingly unethical, so we could not induce persistent feelings of social isolation through manipulation. Longitudinal research is an ethical alternative, which is why we initiated our longitudinal study of middle-aged and older adults from the greater Chicago area. FIGURE 5. Top panel: comparison of characteristics of very lonely individuals with those of not at all lonely individuals. Bottom panel: comparison of characteristics of individuals induced to feel lonely with those of the same individuals induced to feel nonlonely. Restoring the Whole To accomplish a precise measurement of the effects associated with chronic loneliness and changes in loneliness over time, we identified a subset of individuals from our Chicago study population who were truly a representative sample, the kind that news organizations use in order to predict elections on the basis of survey data.


Hothouse Kids: The Dilemma of the Gifted Child by Alissa Quart

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, cognitive dissonance, deliberate practice, Flynn Effect, haute couture, helicopter parent, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, Stephen Hawking, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the scientific method, Thomas L Friedman, War on Poverty

This will most likely change, as gifted education tends to alter its methods cyclically, a microcosmic version of the concerns of Americans at large, as well as larger trends in education. Lewis Terman, creator of the Stanford-Binet test, was interested in studies and psychological tests in the 1920s, one heyday for such tests. His longitudinal study of high-IQ children helped to define the “gifted” as a school population. Gifted educator Leta Hollingworth formed a curriculum based on a longitudinal study she conducted of students with IQs over 155, and then in 1936 established the Speyer School for gifted children, where the children studied common life as well as academic subjects in the hopes of helping them live in the world, reflecting the educational tactics popular in that period, among them progressive education.

The same is true in other “performance domains,” such as ballet, gymnastics, and figure skating—“a similar progression through increasingly difficult tasks, in which the guidance of a teacher is critical for success.” Ericsson’s research bears out the old saw that practice makes perfect. When parents send their children to early music lessons and push them to achieve mightily and publicly, they believe they are preparing the children for an adulthood of ever-greater achievement—and sometimes they are. A classic longitudinal study of gifted children begun by Stanford University psychologist Lewis Terman supports Ericsson’s findings about deliberative practice, and the value of discovering and developing the intellectual talents of strong learners not only in private lessons but also in public schools. Terman’s study, begun in 1921, followed 1,500 children with IQs of 135 culled from California’s urban areas. Published as Genetic Studies of Genius, the study generated many articles and findings.

Psychologists have long known about the transmission of parental anxiety to children, but particular later-life problems can await adults who once expected to have infinite capabilities. As the poet David Shapiro writes, “The child says infinity is a small word.” Psychology professor Anderegg tells me that gifted children can grow up to expect their wives, husbands, and lovers to devote themselves to developing their brilliance. They can also develop a dread of the mundane. Felice Kaufman, the author of a longitudinal study of Presidential Scholars—high school seniors who yearly win a governmental scholastic and talent competition—from 1964 to 1968, was quick to tell me that highly gifted students have their share of unhappiness. In a 1992 article, Kaufman wrote that one “unexpected demographic finding was that 73% of the respondents had no children,” and “a few poignantly stated that since their own childhood had been so troubled they had serious reservations about bringing a child of their own into the world.”


pages: 268 words: 89,761

Unhealthy societies: the afflictions of inequality by Richard G. Wilkinson

attribution theory, business cycle, clean water, correlation coefficient, experimental subject, full employment, fundamental attribution error, Gini coefficient, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, invisible hand, land reform, longitudinal study, means of production, purchasing power parity, rising living standards, twin studies, upwardly mobile

Both sets of data found that poor health does effect social mobility but that the size of the effect is too small to account for very much of the overall health differences (Power et al. 1990; Wadsworth 1986). Because the people covered by these studies are not yet old enough to show what effects illness in middle age might have on career chances in later life, this part of the issue was tackled using data from the Longitudinal Study (Fox et al. 1985). It seemed possible that people who suffered chronic illness later in life might have to give up more demanding jobs and would move down the social scale. For deaths occurring among a 1 per cent sample of the British population at census the Longitudinal Study made it possible to classify deaths according to occupational information given by that person some years earlier. In other words, people could be classified not by what might have been a lowerstatus occupation during their declining years, but by the occupation they were in some years before death.

Another criticism of the original official figures for England and Wales was that making up death rates by matching the occupations given on death certificates by ‘next of kin’ with the population numbers in each occupation taken from the census might be unreliable. There were, for instance, suggestions that next of kin have a tendency to ‘promote the dead’. The self-employed might, for instance, be reported by relatives as company directors. (Interestingly, Dore says that occasionally Japanese firms will promote people posthumously as a tribute to them (Dore 1973).) It was partly to overcome difficulties of the former kind that the OPCS Longitudinal Study was started. Instead of using the occupations given on death certificates, it was able to relate each death back to the occupation given by the deceased at the last census. Once again the results suggested that the official figures had not been misleading. We have now seen that health inequalities cannot be understood in terms of biased measurements, selective social mobility, genetic differences, inequalities in medical care or health-related behaviour.

British Medical Journal 310:1632–6. 1995. Gellner, E. The psychoanalytic movement: the cunning of unreason. 2nd edn. Fontana, London. 1993. Glyn, A. and Miliband, D. Introduction. In: Paying for inequality: the costs of social injustice. Edited, by A.Glyn and D.Miliband. Rivers Oram Press, London. 1994. Goldblatt, P. Mortality and alternative social classifications. In: Mortality and Social Organisation: Longitudinal Study 1971–81. Series LS 6. Edited by P.Goldblatt. HMSO, London. 1990. Goldsmith, M.M. Private vices, public benefits. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1985. Goodall, J. The chimpanzees of Gombe: patterns of behavior. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. 1986. Goody, J. Technology, tradition and the state in Africa. Oxford University Press, Oxford. 1971. Gorbachev, M. ‘The way ahead…more democracy and openness’, The Guardian.


Are We Getting Smarter?: Rising IQ in the Twenty-First Century by James R. Flynn

Flynn Effect, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, popular electronics, twin studies

Cross-sectional analysis reveals a bright tax for both analytic and information processing skills: the brighter the person (at any age up to 65) the more sharp the downward curve in old age. Whether this is because of the physiology of the aging brain, or an environmental shift at retirement, or a combination of the two is unknown. The same analysis reveals a bright bonus for verbal skills, and that working memory is bright neutral. These trends must be conirmed by longitudinal studies of individuals as they age. But I will be surprised if they do not reveal the same pattern. My simulation of a longitudinal study compares those who were 65 in 1995 (WAIS-III) with those who were 75 in 2006 (WAIS-IV). That is a pretty good match. They are of course not being compared to one another directly, but only to the 35-yearolds who were the contemporaries of each group. So even the simulation is a mix of longitudinal and cross-sectional data. In addition, the simulation compares some people who are alive at 65 with a group from which they, at 75, would be absent (because they were deceased).

The results for Working Memory are consistent with its having neither a bright bonus nor tax. Simulating cohorts The above attempt to simulate longitudinal trends with age did not test for what we want most: to determine whether longitudinal data would give different estimates of bright taxes or bonuses than those our cross-sectional data engender. Indeed, no attempt to simulate a genuine longitudinal study can be entirely successful. None will give the history of a real cohort that took the WAIS-IV at age 17 and then retook it as they aged. But as a second best, we can trace artiicial cohorts that took the WAIS at the various times it was normed. For example, we can compare those aged 60 from the WAIS-R (1978), with those aged 77 from the WAIS-III (1995), with those aged 88 from the WAIS-IV (2006).

The cross-sectional trend shows a sharp increase at age 72. (4) For Working Memory, both the longitudinal and crosssectional results are consistent with its being bright neutral. The values bob around a bit but there is no obvious trend toward the bright having either an advantage or a disadvantage as they age. In sum, simulating longitudinal values offers rough conirmation of the cross-sectional data. Everyone would prefer genuine longitudinal data. But unless those conducting longitudinal studies take the possibility of bright taxes/bonuses seriously, there is no chance that the relevant longitudinal data will be collected. Moreover, even their putative existence suggests interesting lines of research, as will become apparent. Causes Let us address the bright tax on Analytic Abilities in conjunction with the bright bonus for Verbal Abilities. These could be purely environmental phenomena.


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The Village Effect: How Face-To-Face Contact Can Make Us Healthier, Happier, and Smarter by Susan Pinker

assortative mating, Atul Gawande, Bernie Madoff, call centre, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, delayed gratification, Edward Glaeser, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, estate planning, facts on the ground, game design, happiness index / gross national happiness, indoor plumbing, invisible hand, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, medical residency, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, Occupy movement, old-boy network, place-making, Ponzi scheme, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, Ray Oldenburg, Silicon Valley, Skype, social intelligence, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steven Pinker, The Great Good Place, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Tony Hsieh, urban planning, Yogi Berra

And if you were happily married but didn’t see your friends all that much, that close relationship with your spouse could also protect you. The life-threatening risks surfaced in people who were disconnected on multiple fronts—people who were lonely. Fast-forward thirty-one years to 2010, when Julianne Holt-Lunstad, a psychologist at Brigham Young University in Utah, along with two colleagues, examined 148 longitudinal studies about relationships and mortality—which was like summarizing the diaries of about 309, 000 people over seven and a half years. That’s a lot of data, and when the researchers crunched it all, they were astonished to learn that those who were integrated into their communities had half the risk of dying over the course of the seven years as those who led more solitary lives. Similar to Berkman and Syme’s first study, those who experienced various kinds of social contact increased their odds of survival—not just by a little, but by 91 percent, nearly doubling their odds of dodging the ultimate bullet for a long while.

Or a shared feast can jumpstart a feeling of cooperation, as was suspected of the Natufian funeral barbecue—or its modern equivalent, block parties intended to instill solidarity among neighbors.46 The only real way to answer this chicken-and-egg question is to randomly assign children at birth to different types of meals—with family, with friends, with both, or alone—and then watch what happens to them as they grow. That can’t happen, of course. One of the best alternatives is a longitudinal study, which asks lots of questions about people’s habits and then tracks what happens to them over time (as we’ve seen in the Framingham study, as well as the nurses study on breast cancer). One recent such study, led by University of Minnesota’s Ann Meier and Cornell’s Kelly Musick, tracked eighteen thousand American adolescents. After ruling out other causes, they found that face-to-face interaction is what’s protective about family dinners, not shared meals per se.

Friends and Neighbors (National Public Radio, 2011). 18. Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace (New York: Vintage Reprint, 2008); William Deresiewicz, “Faux Friendship,” Chronicle of Higher Education, December 6, 2009. 19. Anthony Storr, Solitude (New York: HarperCollins, 1997); Susan Cain, Quiet (New York: Broadway, 2012). 20. Ye Luo et al., “Loneliness, Health, and Mortality in Old Age: A National Longitudinal Study,” Social Science and Medicine 74 (2012). 21. A. Steptoe et al., “Loneliness and Neuroendocrine, Cardiovascular, and Inflammatory Stress Responses in Middle-Aged Men and Women,” Psychoneuroendocrinology 29, no. 5 (2004); Ruth Hackett et al., “Loneliness and Stress-Related Inflammatory and Neuroendocrine Responses in Older Men and Women,” Psychoneuroendocrinology 37, no. 1801–9 (2012). 22.


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Dream Hoarders: How the American Upper Middle Class Is Leaving Everyone Else in the Dust, Why That Is a Problem, and What to Do About It by Richard V. Reeves

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, assortative mating, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, circulation of elites, cognitive dissonance, desegregation, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, full employment, ghettoisation, glass ceiling, helicopter parent, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, income inequality, knowledge economy, land value tax, longitudinal study, mortgage tax deduction, obamacare, Occupy movement, plutocrats, Plutocrats, positional goods, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, working-age population, zero-sum game

.: Harvard University Department of Economics Littauer Center, December 2014) (www.aeaweb.org/aea/2015conference/program/retrieve.php?pdfid=1030). 24. Garey Ramey and Valerie Ramey, “The Rug Rat Race,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2010): pp. 129–99. 25. Ellen Klein’s calculations from Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 2010–11 (ECLS-K:2011). 26. Private school here includes parochial schools. These tabulations are drawn from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 Senior Class of 2004 First Follow Up survey, produced by the National Center for Education Statistics. 27. See, for instance, Raj Chetty, John Friedman, and Jonah Rockoff, “Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood,” American Economic Review 104, no. 9 (September 2014): pp. 2633–79; and Grover Whitehurst, Matthew Chingos, and Katharine Lindquist, “Evaluating Teachers with Classroom Observations,” Brookings, May 13, 2014 (www.brookings.edu/research/evaluating-teachers-with-classroom-observations-lessons-learned-in-four-districts/). 28.

Child Trends Databank, “Parental Involvement in Schools,” September 2013 (www.childtrends.org/?indicators=parental-involvement-in-schools). 30. Ashlyn Nelson and Beth Gazley, “The Rise of School-Supporting Nonprofits,” Education Finance and Policy 9, no. 4 (Fall 2014): pp. 541–66. 31. Putnam, Our Kids, p. 168. 32. Reardon, Whither Opportunity, p. 104. 33. Ellen Klein’s calculations from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002) First Follow-Up Survey. 34. Anne Kim, “How the Internet Wrecked College Admissions,” Washington Monthly, September/August 2016. 35. Craig Heller, “College Essay Solutions” (www.collegeessaysolutions.com/pricing). 36. Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Emmanuel Saez, Nicholas Turner, and Danny Yagan. Online Table 4. “Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility.”

Debopam Bhattacharya and Bhashkar Mazumder, “A Nonparametric Analysis of Black-White Differences in Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States,” Quantitative Economics 2, no. 3 (November 2011): pp. 335–79. 5. Michael Young, The Rise of the Meritocracy (1958; repr., New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 1994), p. 166. 6. See Table 1.10 of the National Center for Education Statistics report, Erich Lauff and Steven Ingels, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS: 2002): A First Look at 2002 High School Sophomores 10 Years Later, NCES 2014-363 (U.S. Department of Education, January 2014) (http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2014/2014363.pdf). 7. Young, The Rise of the Meritocracy, p. 96. 8. “Most See Inequality Growing, but Partisans Differ over Solutions,” Pew Research Center, January 23, 2014 (www.people-press.org/2014/01/23/most-see-inequality-growing-but-partisans-differ-over-solutions/). 9.


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The Social Animal: The Hidden Sources of Love, Character, and Achievement by David Brooks

Albert Einstein, asset allocation, assortative mating, Atul Gawande, Bernie Madoff, business process, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, clean water, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, disintermediation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, fear of failure, financial deregulation, financial independence, Flynn Effect, George Akerlof, Henri Poincaré, hiring and firing, impulse control, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, loss aversion, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Monroe Doctrine, Paul Samuelson, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, school vouchers, six sigma, social intelligence, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, Walter Mischel, young professional

This is the period researchers call the “reminiscence bump,” because memories from late adolescence to early adulthood tend to be more vivid than those from any other time of life. He wondered how accurate his memories could possibly be. When George Vaillant from the Grant Longitudinal Study sent an elderly subject reports on his early life for fact-checking purposes, he sent back the reports insisting, “You must have sent these to the wrong person.” He simply could not remember any of the events from his own life that had been recorded at the time. The subject of another longitudinal study had suffered a brutal childhood at the hands of abusive parents, well documented at the time. But at age seventy, he remembered his father as a “good family man” and his mother as “the kindest woman in the world.” Harold also experienced a sort of negative enjoyment.

Vohs (New York: Guilford Press, 2004), 332. 17 more promiscuous in adolescence David M. Buss, The Evolution of Desire: Strategies of Human Mating (New York: Basic Books, 2003), 93. 18 higher rates of psychopathology Mary Main, Erik Hesse, and Nancy Kaplan, “Predictability of Attachment Behavior and Representational Processes at 1, 6, and 19 Years of Age: The Berkeley Longitudinal Study” in Attachment from Infancy to Adulthood: The Major Longitudinal Studies, eds. Klaus E. Grossmann, Karin Grossmann, and Everett Waters (New York: Guilford Press, 2005), 280. 19 retarded synaptic development Thomas Lewis, Fari Amini, and Richard Lannon, A General Theory of Love (New York: Vintage, 2001), 199. 20 That’s in part because Kathleen Kendall-Tackett, Linda Meyer Williams, and David Finkelhor, “Impact of Sexual Abuse on Children: A Review and Synthesis of Recent Empirical Studies,” Psychological Bulletin 113, no. 1 (1993): 173, http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/pdf/VS69.pdf. 21 They’ve found, for example Gopnik, 182. 22 “predictive power of childhood experience” Sroufe et al., 268. 23 Attachment-security and caregiver-sensitivity Sroufe et al., 164. 24 Kids who had dominating, intrusive Sroufe et al., 167. 25 By observing quality of care Sroufe et al., 210. 26 Most reported having no Sroufe et al., 211. 27 Forty percent of the parents Sroufe et al., 95. 28 “When Ellis seeks help” Sroufe et al., 287.

Mayer, Peter Salovey, and David Caruso conclude that at best IQ contributes about 20 percent to life success. There is great uncertainty about these sorts of numbers. As Richard Nisbett puts it, “What nature hath joined together, multiple regression cannot put asunder.” But the general idea is that once you get past some pretty obvious correlations (smart people make better mathematicians), there is a very loose relationship between IQ and life outcomes. One famous longitudinal study known as the Terman study followed a group of extremely high-IQ students (they all scored 135 or above). The researchers expected these brilliant young people to go on to have illustrious careers. They did fine, becoming lawyers and corporate executives, for the most part. But there were no superstar achievers in the group, no Pulitzer Prize winners or MacArthur Award winners. In a follow-up study by Melita Oden in 1968, the people in the group who seemed to be doing best had only slightly higher IQs.


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The Runaway Species: How Human Creativity Remakes the World by David Eagleman, Anthony Brandt

active measures, Ada Lovelace, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Andrew Wiles, Burning Man, cloud computing, computer age, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Dava Sobel, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, en.wikipedia.org, Frank Gehry, Google Glasses, haute couture, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, James Dyson, John Harrison: Longitude, John Markoff, lone genius, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, microbiome, Netflix Prize, new economy, New Journalism, pets.com, QWERTY keyboard, Ray Kurzweil, reversible computing, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, self-driving car, Simon Singh, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, the scientific method, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons, X Prize

“Da Vinci’s Parachute Flies.” BBC News. June 27, 2000. Accessed August 21, 2015. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/808246.stm> Carver, George Washington and Gary R. Kremer. George Washington Carver in His Own Words. Columbia: University of Missouri Press, 1987. Catterall, James S., Susan A. Dumais, and Gillian Harden-Thompson. The Arts and Achievement in At-Risk Youth: Findings from Four Longitudinal Studies. Washington: National Endowment for the Arts, 2012. Chanin, A.L., “Les Demoiselles de Picasso,” New York Times, August 18, 1957. Chi, Tom. “Rapid Prototyping Google Glass.” TED-Ed. November 17, 2012. Accessed May 17, 2016. <http://ed.ted.com/lessons/rapid-prototyping-google-glass-tom-chi#watch> Chin, Andrea. “Ai Weiwei Straightens 150 Tons of Steel Rebar from Sichuan Quake.” Designboom.

Gifted Child Quarterly 15, no. 2 (1971): pp. 75–80. Summarising the results, Torrance wrote “An analysis of twenty studies indicates that in 86% of the comparisons, the finding was either ‘no difference’ or differences in favour of the culturally different group,” in Torrance, Discovery and Nurturance of Giftedness in the Culturally Different (Reston: Council for Exceptional Children, 1977). Longitudinal studies have shown the Torrance Test to be a better predictor of creative achievement than IQ or SAT scores. 9 Robert Gjerdingen, “Partimenti Written to Impart a Knowledge of Counterpoint and Composition,” in Partimento and Continuo Playing in Theory and in Practice, ed. Dirk Moelants and Kathleen Snyers (Leuven: Leuven University Press, 2010). 10 Benjamin S. Bloom and Lauren A. Sosniak, Developing Talent in Young People (New York: Ballantine Books, 1985). 11 Mikael Carlssohn, “Women in Film Music, or How Hollywood Learned to Hire Female Composers for (at Least) Some of Their Movies,” IAWM Journal 11, no. 2 (2005): pp. 16–19; Ricky O’Bannon, “By the Numbers: Female Composers,” Baltimore Symphony Orchestra, accessed May 11, 2016, <https://www.bsomusic.org/stories/by-the-numbers-female-composers.aspx> 12 Maria Popova, “Margaret Mead on Female vs.

Sosniak, Developing Talent in Young People (New York: Ballantine Books, 1985). 11 Mikael Carlssohn, “Women in Film Music, or How Hollywood Learned to Hire Female Composers for (at Least) Some of Their Movies,” IAWM Journal 11, no. 2 (2005): pp. 16–19; Ricky O’Bannon, “By the Numbers: Female Composers,” Baltimore Symphony Orchestra, accessed May 11, 2016, <https://www.bsomusic.org/stories/by-the-numbers-female-composers.aspx> 12 Maria Popova, “Margaret Mead on Female vs. Male Creativity, the ‘Bossy’ Problem, Equality in Parenting, and Why Women Make Better Scientists,” Brain Pickings, n.d., accessed May 11, 2016, <http://www.brainpickings.org/2014/08/06/margaret-mead-female-male/> 13 James S. Catterall, Susan A. Dumais, and Gillian Harden-Thompson, The Arts and Achievement in At-Risk Youth: Findings from Four Longitudinal Studies (Washington: National Endowment for the Arts, 2012). 14 John Maeda, “STEM + Art = STEAM,” e STEAM Journal: Vol. 1: Iss. 1, Article 34. Available at: <http://scholarship.claremont.edu/steam/vol1/iss1/34> 15 Steve Lohr, “IBM’s Design-Centered Strategy to Set Free the Squares,” New York Times, November 14, 2015, accessed May 11, 2016, <http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/business/ibms-design-centered-strategy-to-set-free-the-squares.html?


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Top Dog: The Science of Winning and Losing by Po Bronson, Ashley Merryman

Asperger Syndrome, Berlin Wall, Charles Lindbergh, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, Edward Glaeser, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, game design, industrial cluster, Jean Tirole, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, phenotype, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, school choice, selection bias, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Steve Jobs, zero-sum game

Paquette’s argument is that this emotional groundwork helps children later in life be brave in unfamiliar situations, stand up for themselves, and learn to take risks. It gives them training time to get comfortable with the emotional intensity of competition. The imperative thing about roughhousing is that the parent maintains control, animating children but de-escalating when kids are on the brink of anger or frustration. In one of Paquette’s longitudinal studies, he videotaped fathers playing with their young children, and then he scored the tapes for the amount and style of roughhousing. Five years later, he looked again at the kids. Paquette found that fathers who’d been “weak-dominant”—who let the roughhousing get out of hand, and whose play lost its warmth—had kids who could not emotionally regulate themselves. They were often overly aggressive.

There’s no clear evidence that reassuring yourself “You’re great!” promotes better outcomes during competition. A number of studies have found that more negative self-talk is associated with more successful performance. Athletes who chided themselves on their mistakes, then moved on, became Olympians. Those who spent meets telling themselves they were wonderful didn’t make the squad. In longitudinal studies, Gabriele Oettingen, professor at New York University and the University of Hamburg, concluded that when jobseekers spend time visualizing their dream job, two years later they are less likely to have found employment in any job. (If they someday do find a job, it will be for lower pay and lower recognition than the jobs held by those who had spent less time daydreaming about their careers.)

But East Germans over 35 were said to be too invested in security over innovation. Not until the next generation took over would the new Länder really take off. On an individual level, social psychologists found the transition to be a fascinating laboratory for discovering and predicting who would thrive amid the change, and who would struggle. There were studies of Easterners who’d escaped to the West (before the Wall fell). Likewise, there were longitudinal studies of workers in Dresden and Jena, to discern the personality traits that determined whether an individual could and would transform with the times. One economic incongruity the researchers had observed: most highly educated East Germans did not pursue new careers in engineering or technology, despite being qualified to do so. Instead, they took low-paying jobs in the construction industry, as laborers.


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Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking by Susan Cain

8-hour work day, Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, call centre, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, game design, hive mind, index card, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, new economy, popular electronics, Ralph Waldo Emerson, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, telemarketer, The Wisdom of Crowds, traveling salesman, twin studies, Walter Mischel, web application, white flight

Fortunately, so have researchers at Harvard, where scientists are probing the human brain in an attempt to discover the biological origins of human temperament. One such scientist is an eighty-two-year-old man named Jerome Kagan, one of the great developmental psychologists of the twentieth century. Kagan devoted his career to studying the emotional and cognitive development of children. In a series of groundbreaking longitudinal studies, he followed children from infancy through adolescence, documenting their physiologies and personalities along the way. Longitudinal studies like these are time-consuming, expensive, and therefore rare—but when they pay off, as Kagan’s did, they pay off big. For one of those studies, launched in 1989 and still ongoing, Professor Kagan and his team gathered five hundred four-month-old infants in his Laboratory for Child Development at Harvard, predicting they’d be able to tell, on the strength of a forty-five-minute evaluation, which babies were more likely to turn into introverts or extroverts.

Schwartz explains that he asks his subjects—who are in their late teens—to lie down with their heads in the scanner while they look at photographs of faces and the machine tracks how their brains respond. He’s especially interested in activity in the amygdala—the same powerful organ inside the brain that Kagan found played such an important role in shaping some introverts’ and extroverts’ personalities. Schwartz is Kagan’s colleague and protégé, and his work picks up just where Kagan’s longitudinal studies of personality left off. The infants Kagan once categorized as high- and low-reactive have now grown up, and Schwartz is using the fMRI machine to peer inside their brains. Kagan followed his subjects from infancy into adolescence, but Schwartz wanted to see what happened to them after that. Would the footprint of temperament be detectable, all those years later, in the adult brains of Kagan’s high- and low-reactive infants?

See also www.reuters.com, Factbox: Jeffrey Skilling, June 24, 2010. 8. will graduate into a business culture: Stanford Business School professor of applied psychology Thomas Harrell tracked Stanford MBAs who graduated between 1961 and 1965, and published a series of studies about them. He found that high earners and general managers tended to be outgoing and extroverted. See, e.g., Thomas W. Harrell and Bernard Alpert, “Attributes of Successful MBAs: A 20-Year Longitudinal Study,” Human Performance 2, no. 4 (1989): 301-322. 9. “ ‘Here everyone knows that it’s important to be an extrovert’ ”: Reggie Garrison et al., “Managing Introversion and Extroversion in the Workplace,” Wharton Program for Working Professionals (WPWP) (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, Spring 2006). 10. BOSS TO TED AND ALICE: Here I must apologize: I can’t recall the company that ran this ad, and haven’t been able to locate it. 11.


Not Working by Blanchflower, David G.

active measures, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Boris Johnson, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Clapham omnibus, collective bargaining, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, declining real wages, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, estate planning, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, George Akerlof, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, illegal immigration, income inequality, indoor plumbing, inflation targeting, job satisfaction, John Bercow, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nate Silver, negative equity, new economy, Northern Rock, obamacare, oil shock, open borders, Own Your Own Home, p-value, Panamax, pension reform, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-materialism, price stability, prisoner's dilemma, quantitative easing, rent control, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, selection bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, Thorstein Veblen, trade liberalization, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, urban planning, working poor, working-age population, yield curve

The impact of prolonged time spent in unemployment on depression symptoms appears to be explained by individual demographic factors in the sampled countries. 3) Unemployment increases susceptibility to malnutrition, illness, mental stress, and loss of selfesteem, leading to depression.32 There is evidence for the United States that being jobless injures self-esteem and fosters feelings of externality and helplessness among youths.33 The psychological imprint of joblessness persists. Paul and Moser (2009) in a meta-analysis of 237 cross-sectional and 87 longitudinal studies concluded that the unemployed exhibit more distress than the employed. A significant difference was found for several indicator variables of mental health including symptoms of distress, depression, anxiety, psychosomatic symptoms, subjective well-being, and self-esteem. Meta-analyses of longitudinal studies and natural experiments endorsed the assumption, they argued, that unemployment not only is correlated to distress but also causes it. 4) Being unemployed can reduce the life expectancy of workers.34 There is evidence that mortality for the previously unemployed was 2.5 times higher than for people not previously unemployed.35 One study followed 20,632 twins in Sweden from 1973 to 1996 and found that unemployment increased mortality, with significant increases in suicide, injuries, and accidents.36 Low levels of education, use of sleeping pills or tranquilizers, and serious or longlasting illness tended to strengthen the association between unemployment and early mortality. 5) Increases in the unemployment rate tend to be associated with increases in the suicide rate.37 The unemployed appear to have a higher propensity to commit suicide. 6) Unemployment increases the probability of poor physical health outcomes such as heart attacks in later life.38 7) There is evidence of increases in smoking after unemployment.39 8) Many of the unemployed delay important life decisions, such as marriage and having children.40 As noted above, unemployment makes it harder for young people to strike out on their own and they often end up living with their parents. 9) Teenage unemployment leaves scars rather than temporary blemishes.41 Young people who suffer periods of unemployment have a 13–21 percent decrease in earnings by age 41.42 10) The long-term unemployed are at a disadvantage when they try to find work.

“The Rising Prevalence of Chronic Low Back Pain.” Archives of Internal Medicine 169 (3): 251–58. Freeman, R. B. 1999. “The Economics of Crime.” In Handbook of Labor Economics, vol. 3C, ed. O. C. Ashenfelter and D. Card, 3529–71. Amsterdam: Elsevier North Holland. ———. 2007. “Labor Market Institutions around the World.” NBER Working Paper #13242. Frese, M., and G. Mohr. 1987. “Prolonged Unemployment and Depression in Older Workers: A Longitudinal Study of Intervening Variables.” Social Science and Medicine 25: 173–78. Frey, B. S., and A. Stutzer. 2002. Happiness and Economics: How the Economy and Institutions Affect Human Well-Being. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Friedman, M. 1953. Essays in Positive Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ———. 1968. “The Role of Monetary Policy.” American Economic Review 58 (1): 1–17.

Lucas, R. E. 2003. “Macroeconomic Priorities.” American Economic Review 93 (1): 1–14. Ludwig, J., D. E. Marcotte, and K. Norberg. 2009. “Anti-depressants and Suicide.” Journal of Health Economics 28 (3): 659–76. Luppino, F. S., L. M. de Wit, P. V. Bouvy, T. Stijnen, P. Cuijpers, B. W. Penninx, and F. G. Zitman. 2010. “Overweight, Obesity, and Depression: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Longitudinal Studies.” Archives of General Psychiatry 67 (3): 220–29. Luttmer, E. F. P. 2005. “Neighbors as Negatives: Relative Earnings and Well-Being.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 (3): 963–1002. Machin, S., and A. Manning. 1999. “The Causes and Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment in Europe.” In Handbook of Labor Economics, vol. 3C, ed. O. C. Ashenfelter and D. Card, 3085–3139. Amsterdam: Elsevier North Holland.


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Rapt: Attention and the Focused Life by Winifred Gallagher

Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, Build a better mousetrap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, epigenetics, Frank Gehry, fundamental attribution error, Isaac Newton, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Mahatma Gandhi, McMansion, music of the spheres, Nelson Mandela, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Walter Mischel, zero-sum game

Indeed, seeing that glass as at least half-full may be aging’s greatest underremarked benefit. Compared with the young, the old experience fewer unpleasant emotions and just as many delightful ones. They’re also more satisfied with their relationships and better at solving problems that crop up in them. Elders who have a particularly positive focus tend to be healthier as well as happier: according to the Ohio Longitudinal Study, they live 7.5 years longer. To William James, wisdom was “the art of knowing what to overlook,” and many elders master this way of focusing. Lots of studies show that younger adults pay as much or more attention to negative information as to the positive sort. By middle age, however, their focus starts to shift, until in old age, they’re likely to have a strong positive bias in what they both attend to and remember.

The historical record of the likes of Newton and Feynman in particular first interested Duckworth in taking a serious look at grit’s role in accomplishment in general. Biographical analyses showed that with some exceptions, such superachievers have certain things in common. They often find their focus early in life, as did many of the three hundred “Termites,” as the brilliant children studied by Stanford’s Lewis Terman, the pioneer of IQ testing and the longitudinal study of lives, are called. After homing in on their special interest in youth, most pursued it with tenacious effort and long-term, consistent attention. Some people are “gritty” and others aren’t, but tenacity could be either a heritable trait or a habit established by early experience. People who make a living by doing something that deeply interests them are grittier than those who don’t, which suggests that the quality could have developed from their liking what they do.

., “Developmental Trajectories of Brain Volume Abnormalities in Children and Adolescents with Attention-Deficit/- Hyperactivity Disorder,” Journal of the American Medical Association 288, 2002; “Cingulate-Precuneus Interactions: A New Locus of Dysfunction in Adult Attention-Deficit /Hyperactivity Disorder,” Biological Psychiatry 63, 2008; F. X. Castellanos and R. Tannock, “Neuroscience of Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder: The Search for Endophenotypes,” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 3, 2002. p.167. That it’s six times likelier to affect children: R. C. Herrenkohl, B. P. Egolf, and E. C. Herrenkohl, “Preschool Antecedents of Adolescent Assaultive Behavior: A Longitudinal Study.” American Journal of Orthopsychiatry 67, 1997. p.168. About 25 percent of the biological parents of diagnosed kids: P. C. Kendall and C. Hammen, Abnormal Psychology. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1995. p.169. Waving a book called Attention, Memory, and Executive Function: G. Reid Lyon and Norman A. Krasnegor (eds.). Attention, Memory, and Executive Function. Baltimore: Paul H. Brookes, 1996.


pages: 397 words: 109,631

Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking by Richard E. Nisbett

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, big-box store, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, cognitive dissonance, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, cosmological constant, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, endowment effect, experimental subject, feminist movement, fixed income, fundamental attribution error, glass ceiling, Henri Poincaré, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, longitudinal study, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, quantitative easing, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, Shai Danziger, Socratic dialogue, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, William of Occam, Zipcar

If you want to find out whether austerity or pump-priming was more helpful to a country’s economy during the Great Recession, you can correlate degree of austerity with strength of recovery, but you can’t randomly assign countries to an austerity condition. Economists are taught MRA as their main statistical tool. But they are not taught to be nearly as critical of it as they need to be. Levitt, in a book cowritten with the journalist Stephen Dubner,21 reported on an analysis of data collected by the U.S. Department of Education called the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study. The academic achievement of students from kindergarten to fifth grade was examined, along with dozens of other variables, such as parental income and education, how many books were in the child’s home, how much the child was read to, whether the child was adopted, and so forth. Levitt reports on the MRA-based conclusions about the relationship between a host of these variables and academic achievement.

Experts are the worst people to trust except for all those other people whose views you might consult. And bear in mind that I’m an expert on the question of the expertise of experts! Notes INTRODUCTION 1. Gould, The Panda’s Thumb. 2. Nisbett, “Hunger, Obesity and the Ventromedial Hypothalamus.” 3. Polanyi, Personal Knowledge. 4. Nisbett, The Geography of Thought. 5. Lehman et al., “The Effects of Graduate Training on Reasoning”; Lehman, Darrin, and Nisbett, “A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Undergraduate Education on Reasoning”; Morris and Nisbett, “Tools of the Trade.” 6. Larrick, Morgan, and Nisbett, “Teaching the Use of Cost-Benefit Reasoning in Everyday Life”; Larrick, Nisbett, and Morgan, “Who Uses the Cost-Benefit Rules of Choice? Implications for the Normative Status of Microeconomic Theory”; Nisbett et al., “Teaching Reasoning”; Nisbett et al., “Improving Inductive Inference” in Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky, Judgment Under Uncertainty; Nisbett et al., “The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Reasoning.” 1.

Morris and Nisbett, “Tools of the Trade: Deductive Reasoning Schemas Taught in Psychology and Philosophy”; Nisbett, Rules for Reasoning. 2. Cheng and Holyoak, “Pragmatic Reasoning Schemas”; Cheng et al., “Pragmatic Versus Syntactic Approaches to Training Deductive Reasoning.” 3. Cheng and Holyoak, “Pragmatic Reasoning Schemas”; Cheng et al., “Pragmatic Versus Syntactic Approaches to Training Deductive Reasoning.” 4. Lehman and Nisbett, “A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Undergraduate Education on Reasoning.” 5. Ibid. 14. DIALECTICAL REASONING 1. Graham, Later Mohist Logic, Ethics, and Science. 2. Ibid. 3. Chan, “The Story of Chinese Philosophy”; Disheng, “China’s Traditional Mode of Thought and Science: A Critique of the Theory That China’s Traditional Thought Was Primitive Thought.” 4. Peng, “Naive Dialecticism and Its Effects on Reasoning and Judgment About Contradiction”; Peng and Nisbett, “Culture, Dialectics, and Reasoning About Contradiction”; Peng, Spencer-Rodgers, and Nian, “Naive Dialecticism and the Tao of Chinese Thought.” 5.


pages: 309 words: 86,909

The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger by Richard Wilkinson, Kate Pickett

basic income, Berlin Wall, clean water, Diane Coyle, epigenetics, experimental economics, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, God and Mammon, impulse control, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), knowledge economy, labor-force participation, land reform, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, offshore financial centre, phenotype, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit maximization, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, statistical model, The Chicago School, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, ultimatum game, upwardly mobile, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

It’s not easy to measure social mobility in societies. Doing so requires longitudinal data – studies that track people over time to see where they started from and where they end up. One convenient way is to take income mobility as a measure of social mobility: to see how much people’s incomes change over their lifetimes, or how much they earn in comparison to their parents. To measure inter-generational mobility these longitudinal studies need to cover periods of as much as thirty years, in order for the offspring to establish their position in the income hierarchy. When we have income data for parents and offspring, social mobility can be measured as the correlation between the two. If the correlation between parent’s income and child’s income is high, that means that rich parents tend to have children who are also rich, and poor parents tend to have children who stay poor.

(These comparisons are not affected by the fact that average incomes are now higher than they used to be.) LIKE FATHER, LIKE SON? Comparable international data on inter-generational social mobility are available for only a few of our rich countries. We take our figures from a study by economist Jo Blanden and colleagues at the London School of Economics.271 Using large, representative longitudinal studies for eight countries, these researchers were able to calculate social mobility as the correlation between fathers’ incomes when their sons were born and sons’ incomes at age thirty. Despite having data for only eight countries, the relationship between intergenerational social mobility and income inequality is very strong. Figure 12.1 shows that countries with bigger income differences tend to have much lower social mobility.

Freeman, ‘Excess mortality in Harlem’, New England Journal of Medicine (1990) 322 (3): 173–7. 81. R. G. Wilkinson, ‘Income distribution and life expectancy’, British Medical Journal (1992) 304 (6820): 165–8. 82. Editor’s Choice, ‘The Big Idea’, British Medical Journal (1996) 312 (7037): 0. 83. Department of Health, The NHS Plan: A plan for investment, a plan for reform. London: HMSO, 2000. 84. Office for National Statistics. ‘Trends in ONS Longitudinal Study estimates of life expectancy, by social class 1972–2005’. http://www. statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=8460&More=Y (accessed 9 September 2008). 85. C. J. Murray, S. C. Kulkarni, C. Michaud, N. Tomijima, M. T. Bulzacchelli, T. J. Iandiorio and M. Ezzati, ‘Eight Americas: investigating mortality disparities across races, counties, and race-counties in the United States’, Public Library of Science Medicine (2006) 3 (9): e260. 86.


The End of Pain: How Nutrition and Diet Can Fight Chronic Inflammatory Disease by Jacqueline Lagace

longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, stem cell

In fact, one out of two women and one out of five men, aged fifty and over, will suffer a fracture due to osteoporosis at some point during the remainder of their lives.125 Osteoporosis leads to a great number of fractures and contributes to the increase in mortality rates among seniors.126 Countries with high rates of consumption of dairy products and animal proteins also present the highest rates of bone fractures due to osteoporosis.127 Two longitudinal studies (that is, studies that follow the subjects for many years) on women’s health (one at Harvard University that followed 75,000 nurses over twelve years, and another in Sweden that involved 60,689 women over eleven years) found that an increase in milk consumption did not protect against the risk of osteoporotic fractures.128 Also, two meta-analyses on the intake of milk or dairy products in relation to fracture risk did not report a drop in fracture risk with an increase in the intake of milk or dairy products or an increase in dietary calcium.129 Modern nutrition and osteoporosis Contrary to primitive man’s diet, which was largely based on foods such as fruits and wild plants, which are rich in alkaline substances, the Western diet is based on high consumption of meat, dairy products, cereals, sweets and salt, which leads to an excess acidity in the body that is not countered by a sufficient intake of alkaline foods such as fruits and vegetables.

Similar observations were made in diabetic patients: those who followed a diet low in glycotoxins showed a considerable drop in inflammation markers and vascular dysfunction.171 Also, the presence of glycotoxins in a diet is strongly associated with inflammation markers, oxidative stress and endothelial-cell dysfunction, not only in diabetic patients but also in normal subjects.172 Many glycotoxins, such as acrylamide, are abundant in foods commonly consumed in a Western-type diet.173 Based on an analysis of the foods eaten in three days by ninety individuals in good health, it was found that an average American consumes about 16,000 ku, plus or minus 5,000 ku (kilo units per day, as determined by authors) of glycotoxins, and that such a diet significantly contributes to the pool of glycotoxins in the body.174 This was further proven by the fact that a subgroup of the study in question, for which the consumption of dietary glycotoxins was reduced, experienced an average drop of serum glycotoxins of 30 percent to 40 percent.175 In general, only 10 percent of glycotoxins are absorbed by intestinal cells, and 30 percent of this value is excreted by the kidneys, while 70 percent is stored in various tissues.176 Unfortunately, given that from age fifty, kidney efficiency drops even in healthy individuals, the effects of glycotoxin accumulation get worse with age. It is therefore no coincidence that in Western countries, chronic disease is increasingly frequent, particularly since the 8 6 > t h e e n d o f pa i n advent of industrialized food processing. A longitudinal study (one conducted over many years) on healthy, average elderly persons in Italy showed that the most significant factor linked to mortality was the drop in renal function. There could be an obvious link between inflammation, oxidizing stress, glycotoxins and chronic disease; and as a matter of fact, studies show that the incidence of chronic kidney disease as well as the cardiovascular diseases that develop with age could be lowered by reducing the level of glycotoxins in the diet either with the help of drugs or by ingesting fewer of them.177 Defense mechanisms against glycotoxins Recent studies suggest that even though the amount of endogenous glycotoxins (those produced by the body) increases with age, dietary glycotoxins make up the majority of those found in the body and are responsible for age-related diseases.178 Dietary glycotoxins are counted in milligrams, while endogenous glycotoxins present in biological systems could be counted in picograms; that is, a billion times less than dietary glycotoxins.179 Our bodies are naturally protected against the formation of endogenous glycotoxins by an enzymatic process: cell deglycation.180 This process is an essential defense system in mammalian cells, but can go overboard in the case of diabetes due to hyperglycemia or of a chronic intake of excessive dietary glycotoxins, for example.

There also exist non-hla-susceptible genes, like the ptpn22 gene in the population of European origin and the padi4 gene in the Asian population.13 In certain individuals, genes have also been identified that have a protective role in spite of the presence of the hla-drb1 genes.14 The study of identical and nonidentical twins made it possible to demonstrate that the risk factors in disease development are also associated with environmental factors.15 Environmental factors carried a lot of weight, since the rate of the disease among identical twins having exactly the same genes was only about 15 percent to 16 percent. Potential environmental risk factors in the development of rheumatoid arthritis The influence of female hormones Given the high rate of rheumatoid arthritis in women — ​two to five times higher than in men — ​it was assumed that female hormones play a part in the onset of the disease. However, the results of the studies on this matter were contradictory. A longitudinal study of a cohort of 121,700 women was conducted over a period of twentysix years (from 1976 to 2002) to elucidate the risk factors linked to reproductive hormones. The study considered the variables of age, age at the onset of menstruation, age at birth of first child, history of breast feeding, use of oral contraception, irregular menstrual rheumatoid arthritis and the hypotoxic diet < 161 periods, body-mass index and smoking, with all these elements being integrated into a multivariate model of the risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis.16 The study found that breast feeding for at least twelve months partially protected against the development of rheumatoid arthritis.


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When Work Disappears: The World of the New Urban Poor by William Julius Wilson

affirmative action, business cycle, citizen journalism, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, declining real wages, deindustrialization, deliberate practice, desegregation, Donald Trump, edge city, ending welfare as we know it, fixed income, full employment, George Gilder, ghettoisation, glass ceiling, Gunnar Myrdal, income inequality, informal economy, jobless men, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, manufacturing employment, mass immigration, new economy, New Urbanism, pink-collar, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, school choice, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Chicago School, upwardly mobile, urban decay, urban renewal, War on Poverty, working poor, working-age population, Works Progress Administration

In 1993, whereas the median income of married-couple families was $43,578, the median income of single-parent families in which the mother was divorced was $17,014. In families where the mother had never been married, the median income was only $9,272. Likewise, whereas only one-tenth of children in husband-wife families were living below the poverty line, over one-third of those living with divorced mothers and two-thirds living with mothers who had never married were classified as poor. Finally, longitudinal studies also reveal that mothers who have never been married receive AFDC for a significantly longer period than do separated or divorced mothers. In addition to the strong links between single parenthood and poverty and welfare receipt, the available research indicates that children from mother-only households are more likely to be school dropouts, to receive lower earnings in young adulthood, and to be recipients of welfare.

They found that whereas more than half of young black men (ages 18 to 29) with annual earnings of over $20,000 were married in 1987, the marriage ratio decreased steadily for those earning less than that—39 percent for those earning between $15,000 and $20,000, 29 percent for those earning between $10,000 and $15,000, 7 percent for those earning between $1,000 and $5,000, and only 3 percent for those with no reported earnings. Although there is a strong association between rates of marriage and both employment status and earnings at any given point in time, national longitudinal studies suggest that these factors account for a relatively small proportion of the overall decline in marriage among African-Americans. Christopher Jencks points out that the decline in the proportion of African-American men who were married and living with their wives was almost as large among those who had worked throughout the previous years as among black men in general. Also, Robert Mare and Christopher Winship found only modest support for the hypothesis linking the sharp rise in poor single-parent families to the declining employment status of young black men.

Finally, David Ellwood and David Rodda found no significant change in the relative impact of work and earnings on marriages between the two periods they observed—1967–71 and 1980–86. These studies, however, are based on national data. How much of the decline in the black marriage rate in the inner city can be accounted for by the increasing joblessness among black males? The UPFLS is not a longitudinal study, but it did collect retrospective (or life-history) marriage and employment data that allow the estimation of trends over time. An analysis of respondents’ retrospective data comparing the employment experiences of different age groups (cohorts) reveals that marriage rates have dropped much more sharply among jobless black fathers than among employed black fathers. But this drop applies only to the younger cohorts.


The Diet Myth: Why America's Obsessions With Weight Is Hazardous to Your Health by Paul Campos

cognitive dissonance, correlation does not imply causation, feminist movement, longitudinal study, moral hazard, moral panic, profit maximization, Saturday Night Live, upwardly mobile

By contrast, the number of comparisons in which intentional weight loss ended up being associated with lower mortality rates was zero. This is especially significant information, given that the Iowa study is one of only a few studies that have distinguished between intentional and unintentional weight loss when measuring the effects of weight loss on health. Several other recent studies have found associations between weight loss and an increased risk of death. In Steven Blair’s ongoing long-term longitudinal study of the effects of physical fitness on health, involving more than seventy thousand subjects, a weight loss of more than 5% among men with BMI figures of 26 to 29 increased the risk of cardio- Fat on Trial 31 vascular disease mortality by nearly 200%, as compared to similarly “overweight” men who maintained stable weights. In the ongoing Harvard Alumni Study, the largest amount of weight gain, in physically active men, has correlated with the lowest mortality risk.

Rather than pretending that such inadequate methods can provide us with reliable knowledge, let us look at studies that have made a serious attempt to measure the effects of fitness and activity levels on health, especially as these factors relate to body mass. The most extensive work of this sort has been carried out by Steven Blair and his colleagues at Dallas’ Cooper Institute. The institute’s Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study has, over the course of the past two decades, compiled an extensive database that tracks the health, weight, and basic fitness levels of more than seventy thousand people. Unlike traditional studies of the effect of weight on health—which as we have seen either ignore the role played by fitness and activity levels, or merely ask participants to decide for themselves if they are active or not—the Aerobics Center’s study gives regular treadmill stress tests to its participants.

“How many people are aware that heavier women have much lower rates of osteoporosis . . .” Avioli, “Significance of Osteoporosis: A Growing International Health Care Problem,” Calcif Tissue Int 49, S5–S7 (1991); Edelstein and BarrettConnor, “Relation Between Body Size and Bone Mineral Density in Elderly Men and Women,” Am J Epidemiol 138, 160–69 (1993); Tremollieres et al., “Vertebral Postmenopausal Bone Loss Is Reduced in Overweight Women: A Longitudinal Study in 155 Early Postmenopausal Women,” J Clin Endocrinol Metab 77, 683–86 (1993). “ ‘Epidemiology is a crude and inexact science . . .’ ” New York Times, October 11, 1995, Sec. C, p. 1. “To understand the implications of this distinction, consider the fact that bald men die sooner . . .” This analogy was suggested to me by Paul Ernsberger. “The standard ‘sensible’ recommendations to change eating habits and diligently use caloric charts . . .’ ” Bennett and Gurin, The Dieter’s Dilemma (1982), p. 283.


pages: 405 words: 112,470

Together by Vivek H. Murthy, M.D.

Airbnb, call centre, cognitive bias, coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, crowdsourcing, gig economy, income inequality, index card, longitudinal study, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nelson Mandela, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Snapchat, social intelligence, stem cell, twin studies, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft

Loneliness Index: Survey of 20,000 Americans Examining Behaviors Driving Loneliness in the United States,” Cigna, May 2018, https://www.multivu.com/players/English/8294451-cigna-us-loneliness-survey/docs/IndexReport_1524069371598-173525450.pdf. 7Parminder Raina, Christina Wolfson, Susan Kirkland, and Lauren Griffith, “The Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA) Report on Health and Aging in Canada: Findings from Baseline Data Collection 2010–2015,” Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA), May 2018, https://www.ifa-fiv.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/clsa_report_en_final_web.pdf. 8“Australian Loneliness Report: A survey exploring the loneliness levels of Australians and the impact on their health and wellbeing,” Australian Psychological Society and Swinburne University, Psychweek.org.au, November 17, 2018, https://www.psychweek.org.au/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Psychology-Week-2018-Australian-Loneliness-Report.pdf. 9“All the Lonely People: Loneliness in Later Life,” Age UK, September 25, 2018, https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-press/articles/2018/october/all-the-lonely-people-report/. 10“Do Europeans Feel Lonely?

Guinn, “Prevalence of Adverse Childhood Experiences From the 2011–2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 23 States,” JAMA Pediatrics 172, no. 11 (September 1, 2018): 1038–44, https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2018.2537. 17Emmy E. Werner, “Risk, resilience, and recovery: Perspectives from the Kauai Longitudinal Study,” Development and Psychopathology 5, no. 4 (1993): 503–15, https://doi.org/10.1017/s095457940000612x. 18Emmy Werner, “Resilience and Recovery: Findings from the Kauai Longitudinal Study,” FOCAL POiNT Research, Policy, and Practice in Children’s Mental Health 19, no. 1 (Summer 2005): 11–14, https://www.pathwaysrtc.pdx.edu/pdf/fpS0504.pdf. 19Emmy Werner and Ruth Smith, Overcoming the Odds: High Risk Children from Birth to Adulthood (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1992). 20Emmy Werner, “Risk, Resilience, and Recovery,” Reclaiming Children and Youth 21, no. 1 (2012): 18–23. 21Mary Karapetian Alvord and Judy Johnson Grados, “Enhancing Resilience in Children: A Proactive Approach,” Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 36, no. 3 (2005): 238–45, https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/0735-7028.36.3.238. 22Camelia E, Hostinar and Megan R.

But the richness of relationships is in their texture—in the sound of someone’s voice, in their smile and their body language, in the unexpected moments of honesty that tend to occur during unplanned conversation. The irony is that we’re almost always left feeling better when we take those risks with friends. Inner Circle: Close Friends and Confidantes In 1938, during the Great Depression, Harvard University initiated a long-term study of 268 men from the Harvard classes of 1939 to 1944 with the hope of learning what helped people lead healthy and fulfilled lives. Longitudinal studies are common, but this study has exceeded nearly all of them, still ongoing after eighty years. The original subjects included men who went on to become successful politicians, entrepreneurs, and doctors, and others who got into trouble with the law and had financial problems. Since its inception, the study has expanded to the children and wives of the original study participants. It also merged with a study that started around the same time with 456 young men from Boston’s poorest neighborhoods.4 Dr.


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Reskilling America: Learning to Labor in the Twenty-First Century by Katherine S. Newman, Hella Winston

active measures, blue-collar work, business cycle, collective bargaining, Computer Numeric Control, deindustrialization, desegregation, factory automation, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, job-hopping, knowledge economy, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, performance metric, reshoring, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, two tier labour market, union organizing, upwardly mobile, War on Poverty, Wolfgang Streeck, working poor

She contrasted the outcomes for three groups of students: those enrolled in general high-school programs (like Melissa); those in work-oriented vocational programs (like Wesley); and students in between whom she termed Mid Mixers because they took some vocational courses in programs that were dominated by standard academic high-school subjects.5 She compared how these three groups of students fared in terms of enrollment in postsecondary school or employment versus extended periods of unemployment. The data she turned to—the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY)—are particularly helpful in answering that question because they followed a large national sample of high-school graduates for many years and hence can tell us something about how their school careers shaped their adult lives. Deterding found that vocational students like Wesley had better prospects than students like Melissa, who pursued a routine curriculum in a general high school.

“Digest of Education Statistics,” US Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics (2014), https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d14/tables/dt14_104.20.asp. 8.   Anna M. Phillips and Robert Gebeloff, “In Data, ‘A’ Schools Leave Many Not Ready for CUNY,” New York Times, June 21, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/22/nyregion/many-from-a-rated-nyc-schools-need-help-at-cuny.html. 9.   Jennifer Wine, Natasha Janson, Sara Wheeless, and Tracy Hunt-White, 2004/09 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:04/09): Full-scale Methodology Report, US Department of Education, Center for Education Statistics, 2012-246 (November 2011), http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2012/2012246_1.pdf. 10.    “Like so many other community colleges, particularly those serving low-income students in urban areas, CUNY’s six community colleges have long struggled to improve their graduation rates. CUNY’s colleges have a track record of innovation and experimentation reaching back decades.

Harrell, and Phoebe Khasiala Wakhungu, Completing College: A National View of Student Attainment Rates—Fall 2008 Cohort, Signature Report No. 8 (Herndon, VA: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, November 2014), http://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/SignatureReport8.pdf. 11.    Ibid. 12.    This is especially worrisome with respect to underrepresented minorities. Data from the Beginning Post Secondary Students (BPS) Longitudinal Study (2003–2009) found that only 17.1 percent of black and 15.4 percent of Latino men who enter the community college will have earned a certificate, degree, or transferred to a four-year college or university within 150 percent of normal time (three years). In contrast, 27 percent of white men will have attained their goals in this same time frame. BPS (2009). Three year attainment rates for community college students, by male, by race/ethnicity.


pages: 694 words: 197,804

The Pot Book: A Complete Guide to Cannabis by Julie Holland

Berlin Wall, Burning Man, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, mandatory minimum, Maui Hawaii, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, phenotype, placebo effect, profit motive, publication bias, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Stephen Hawking, University of East Anglia, zero-sum game

Neurology 62 (2004): 1105–1109. Frich, L. M., and F. M. Borgbjerg. “Pain and Pain Treatment in AIDS Patients: A Longitudinal Study.” Journal of Pain and Symptom Management 19 (2000): 339–47. Fried, P. A., and A. M. Smith. “A Literature Review of the Consequences of Prenatal Marihuana Exposure: An Emerging Theme of a Deficiency in Aspects of Executive Function.” Neurotoxicology and Teratology 23 (2001):1–11. Fried, P. A., B. Watkinson, and R. Gray. “Neurocognitive Consequences of Marihuana: A Comparison with Pre-drug Performance.” Neurotoxicology and Teratology 27 (2004): 231–39. Fried, P. A., D. James, and R. Gray. “Current and Former Marijuana Use: Preliminary Findings of a Longitudinal Study of Effects on IQ in Young Adults.” Canadian Medical Association Journal 166 (2002): 887–91. Friedman, H., T.

Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, text revision. Washington, D.C.: American Psychiatric Association, 2000. Amtmann, D., P. Weydt, K. L. Johnson, et al. “Survey of Cannabis Use in Patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.” American Journal of Hospice and Palliative Medicine 21 (2004): 95–104. Andreasson, S., P. Allebeck, A. Engstrom, et al. “Cannabis and Schizophrenia: A Longitudinal Study of Swedish Conscripts.” Lancet 2 (1987): 1483–86. Anonymous. “Marijuana Strains, Pictures, and Descriptions” (2007): www.marju­anastrains.com. Accessed December 8, 2007. Anthony, B., and R. Solomon, eds. The Black Candle by Emily Murphy. Toronto, ON.: Coles Publishing, 1973. Anthony, J. C., L. A. Warner, and R. C. Kessler. “Comparative Epidemiology of Dependence on Tobacco, Alcohol, Controlled Substances and Inhalants: Basic Findings from the National Comorbidity Survey.”

Louis Medical and Surgical Journal 61 (1891): 265–71. Mayor’s Committee on Marijuana. The Marijuana Problem in the City of New York: Sociological, Medical and Psychological Studies. Lancaster, PA: Jacques Cattell Press, 1944. McCormack, J. P., R. Li, D. Zarowny. “Inadequate Treatment of Pain in Ambulatory HIV Patients.” Clinical Journal of Pain 9 (1993): 279–83. McGee, R., S. Williams,, R. Poulton, et al. “A Longitudinal Study of Cannabis Use and Mental Health from Adolescence to Early Adulthood.” Addiction 95 (2000): 491–503. McGuigan, M. “Cannabinoids.” In N. E. Flomenbaum, L. R. Goldfrank, R. S. Hoffman, et al., eds. Goldfrank’s Toxicological Emergencies, 8th ed. New York: McGraw Hill, 2006. McHale, S., and N. Hunt. “Executive Function Deficits in Short-term Abstinent Cannabis Users.” Human Psychopharmacology 23 (2008): 409–15.


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The Body Keeps the Score: Brain, Mind, and Body in the Healing of Trauma by Bessel van Der Kolk M. D.

anesthesia awareness, British Empire, conceptual framework, deskilling, different worldview, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, false memory syndrome, feminist movement, impulse control, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Nelson Mandela, phenotype, placebo effect, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), social intelligence, theory of mind, Yogi Berra

The proposed criteria for Developmental Trauma Disorder can be found in the Appendix. 18. http://www.traumacenter.org/products/instruments.php. 19. Read more about Sroufe at www.cehd.umn.edu/icd/people/faculty/cpsy/sroufe.html and more about the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation and its publications at http://www.cehd.umn.edu/icd/research/parent-child/ and http://www.cehd.umn.edu/icd/research/parent-child/publications/. See also L. A. Sroufe and W. A. Collins, The Development of the Person: The Minnesota Study of Risk and Adaptation from Birth to Adulthood (New York: Guilford Press, 2009); and L. A. Sroufe, “Attachment and Development: A Prospective, Longitudinal Study from Birth to Adulthood,” Attachment & Human Development 7, no. 4 (2005): 349–67. 20. L. A. Sroufe, The Development of the Person: The Minnesota Study of Risk and Adaptation from Birth to Adulthood (New York: Guilford Press, 2005).

The letter went on: “The notion that early childhood adverse experiences lead to substantial developmental disruptions is more clinical intuition than a research-based fact. This statement is commonly made but cannot be backed up by prospective studies.” In fact, we had included several prospective studies in our proposal. Let’s look at just two of them here. HOW RELATIONSHIPS SHAPE DEVELOPMENT Beginning in 1975 and continuing for almost thirty years, Alan Sroufe and his colleagues tracked 180 children and their families through the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation.19 At the time the study began there was an intense debate about the role of nature versus nurture, and temperament versus environment in human development, and this study set out to answer those questions. Trauma was not yet a popular topic, and child abuse and neglect were not a central focus of this study—at least initially, until they emerged as the most important predictors of adult functioning.

By far the most important predictor of how well his subjects coped with life’s inevitable disappointments was the level of security established with their primary caregiver during the first two years of life. Sroufe informally told me that he thought that resilience in adulthood could be predicted by how lovable mothers rated their kids at age two.24 THE LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF INCEST In 1986 Frank Putnam and Penelope Trickett, his colleague at the National Institute of Mental Health, initiated the first longitudinal study of the impact of sexual abuse on female development.25 Until the results of this study came out, our knowledge about the effects of incest was based entirely on reports from children who had recently disclosed their abuse and on accounts from adults reconstructing years or even decades later how incest had affected them. No study had ever followed girls as they matured to examine how sexual abuse might influence their school performance, peer relationships, and self-concept, as well as their later dating life.


pages: 505 words: 127,542

If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Happy? by Raj Raghunathan

Broken windows theory, business process, cognitive dissonance, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, fundamental attribution error, hedonic treadmill, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, market clearing, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, Phillip Zimbardo, placebo effect, science of happiness, Skype, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thorstein Veblen, Tony Hsieh, working poor, zero-sum game, Zipcar

Ward, “Subtle Signals of Inconspicuous Consumption,” Journal of Consumer Research 37(4) (2010): 555–69; Frank, Luxury Fever; T. Veblen, The Theory of the Leisure Class (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2007). materialistic focus . . . is one of the biggest happiness killers: There are numerous studies showing the negative effect that materialism has on happiness, including T. Kasser et al., “Changes in Materialism, Changes in Psychological Well-being: Evidence from Three Longitudinal Studies and an Intervention Experiment,” Motivation and Emotion 38(1) (2014): 1–22; M. A. Bauer et al., “Cuing Consumerism Situational Materialism Undermines Personal and Social Well-Being,” Psychological Science 23(5) (2012): 517–23; and R. Pieters, “Bidirectional Dynamics of Materialism and Loneliness: Not Just a Vicious Cycle,” Journal of Consumer Research 40(4) (2013): 615–31. why earning more doesn’t enhance happiness levels: See Happy Money—an excellent book that summarizes other important reasons why more money doesn’t mean more happiness.

how much they like us: A variety of findings show that expressive people are more liked, since it is through expression that we communicate and communication is key to connect with others (which, as we saw in chapter 3A, is a very important goal). For example, less expressive people have fewer social relationships; T. English et al., “Emotion Regulation and Peer-Rated Social Functioning: A 4-Year Longitudinal Study,” Journal of Research in Personality 46(6) (2012): 780–84; see also I. B. Mauss et al., “Don’t Hide Your Happiness! Positive Emotion Dissociation, Social Connectedness, and Psychological Functioning,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 100(4) (2011): 738–48. Suppressing emotions after making a sacrifice also “sours” relationships with romantic partners; E. A. Impett et al., “Suppression Sours Sacrifice: Emotional and Relational Costs of Suppressing Emotions in Romantic Relationships,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 38(6) (2012): 707–20.

ir=India&adsSiteOverride=in; www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2001824/Sitting-dangerous-smoking-study-shows.html; www.runnersworld.com/health/sitting-is-the-new-smoking-even-for-runners; and www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2622916/Work-desk-Then-experts-worrying-news-Why-sitting-bad-smoking.html. inactivity kills more people worldwide: A. A. Thorp et al., “Sedentary Behaviors and Subsequent Health Outcomes in Adults: A Systematic Review of Longitudinal Studies, 1996–2011,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 41(2) (2011): 207–15; E. G. Wilmot et al., “Sedentary Time in Adults and the Association with Diabetes, Cardiovascular Disease and Death: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Diabetologia 55 (2012): 2895–905. 50 percent greater risk of death: N. Owen, A. Bauman, and W. Brown, “Too Much Sitting: A Novel and Important Predictor of Chronic Disease Risk?


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Creating Unequal Futures?: Rethinking Poverty, Inequality and Disadvantage by Ruth Fincher, Peter Saunders

barriers to entry, ending welfare as we know it, financial independence, full employment, Gini coefficient, income inequality, income per capita, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, marginal employment, minimum wage unemployment, New Urbanism, open economy, pink-collar, positional goods, purchasing power parity, shareholder value, spread of share-ownership, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, urban planning, urban renewal, very high income, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population

A recent British study based on longitudinal data was able to conclude that employment was by far the chief escape route from poverty (Great Britain 1999, p. 22). Our evidence suggests this is also the case with child poverty in Australia, and it is likely that this will continue. But to demonstrate conclusively that this will be so, we need longitudinal studies that enable us to distinguish temporary fluctuations from more permanent trends. Early results using administrative data of the Department of Family and Community Services show that a longitudinal study need not be impossibly expensive (Pech and McCoull 1998). NOTE 1 The following proposals draw on Sweet (1998). 128 PDF OUTPUT c: ALLEN & UNWIN r: DP2\BP4401W\MAIN p: (02) 6232 5991 f: (02) 6232 4995 36 DAGLISH STREET CURTIN ACT 2605 128 5 Tackling poverty among indigenous Australians Boyd Hunter TACKLING POVERTY AMONG INDIGENOUS AUSTRALIANS Indigenous Australians are the most disadvantaged and poorest section of Australian society.

Table 4.7 18- to 19-year-old school leavers engaged in marginalising and non-marginalising activities, May 1996 Left school Year 12 Engaged in marginalising activities Not engaged in marginalising activities Left school before Year 12 Engaged in marginalising activities Not engaged in marginalising activities Source: Males Females Persons 18 82 18 82 18 82 33 67 58 42 44 56 McClelland et al. 1998, Table 5. Longitudinal studies have now shown conclusively that unemployment is an independent cause of ill-health (Mathers 1996, p. 75). Mathers’s findings on the health of young people who are ‘not working, not studying’ leads us to the core of our discussion on marginalisation and its links to employment. How large is this group? What is the background of those who end up in this group? What are their chances of exit from this category via social mobility?

., 11, 76, 208 labour market(s), 9, 11, 15, 18–19, 30, 34, 40, 126–8, 160, 163, 194–228 churning, 204, 220 deregulation, 17, 23, 36, 202, 208 segmentation, 204 see also employment labour market programs, 23, 35, 206 Lamb, S., 123 land rights, 136–7, 157 Latham, M., 85 Leser, D., 72, 74 literacy, 122–4 location, 5, 9, 18, 19, 20, 30, 32–3, 45, 129, 160–93 passim locational disadvantage, 160, 176, 180, 185, 186 lone parents, 59, 86, 88, 93, 105–6, 108, 117, 150, 196 longitudinal studies see research methods Low, N., 24 low wages see employment, low-paid and working poor Luxembourg Income Study, 47, 55, 102 Mabo, 136 magazines, 97 Maher, C., 180 Manning, I., 17, 25–6, 35–6, 92 Mackay, H., 74 marginalisation see social exclusion market income, 111–12 Marks, G., 122 McKnight, D., 95 means-testing, 57, 69 measurement see poverty measurement media, 5, 28, 70–101 middle-class welfare, 23, 64 Middleton, S., 75, 81, 83, 84, 87, 92, 93 Mission Australia, 71 Mitchell, D., 56 mobility, occupational see occupational structure Murray, C., 40 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey, 139–42 passim, 145, 147, 148–9, 151, 155, 157 National Commission of Audit, 25 National Health Strategy, 152, 153 249 PDF OUTPUT c: ALLEN & UNWIN r: DP2\BP4401W\INDEX p: (02) 6232 5991 f: (02) 6232 6232 36 DAGLISH STREET CURTIN ACT 2605 249 CREATING UNEQUAL FUTURES?


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Good Times, Bad Times: The Welfare Myth of Them and Us by John Hills

Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, credit crunch, Donald Trump, falling living standards, full employment, Gini coefficient, income inequality, income per capita, longitudinal study, mortgage debt, pension reform, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, quantitative easing, Right to Buy, unpaid internship, very high income, We are the 99%, working-age population, World Values Survey

Note: Highly stable: income in all periods within 10 per cent of annual average; stable/broadly stable: families with at least 11 periods within 15 per cent of average; stable with blips: families with income in 10 periods within 15 per cent of average; rising/falling: higher/lower than average income in periods in second part of year and reverse in first part (with only one exception); erratic/highly erratic: all other cases. 4.7 Unemployment in the UK by duration Source: ONS. Note: Figures are for the third quarter of each year, seasonally adjusted, for adults aged 16–64. Figures are for durations of uncompleted spells of unemployment (using Labour Force Survey definitions). 4.8 Proportion of claimants remaining on Jobseeker’s Allowance, spells starting in April 2007, 2009 and 2011 Source: Data kindly supplied by DWP from Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (not seasonally adjusted). 4.9 Components of income for a couple with one child, 2010–11 Source: DWP tax benefit model for 2010–11 (webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/index.php?page=tbmt). Note: Calculations are for couple working 30 hours or more per week with rent of £149 and Council Tax of £22. 4.10 Combined tax and benefit withdrawal rates for a couple with one child, 2010–11 Source: DWP tax benefit model for 2010–11 (webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/index.php?

Note: Figures are for women with A-levels or higher qualifications only, and are at January 2008 prices (logarithmic vertical scale). 5.2 Income trajectories in the first 10 years of BHPS compared to random patterns Source: Rigg and Sefton (2006, Table 1), based on data from BHPS 1991–2000. 5.3 Age-earnings profiles by gender, private sector employees with high and low education, UK Source: Hills et al (2010, Figure 11.20) based on Disney et al (2009), using Labour Force Survey data from 1994 to 2006. 5.4 Average hourly wage-age trajectories for men and women born before 1955 by qualifications Source: Jenkins (2011, Figure 7.3). Note: Original shown on logarithmic scale. 5.5 Proportion of claimants remaining on Incapacity Benefit or Severe Disablement Allowance, spells starting in April 2004 and April 2007 Source: Data kindly supplied by DWP from Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (includes Severe Disablement Allowance). 5.6 Positions in income distributions of 1992 and 2006 of those who started in top and bottom tenths of distribution in 1991 Source: Jenkins (2011, Figure 5.1) (simplified and inverted). 5.7 Where people starting in different fifths of the income distribution spend their time over following years Source: Barton et al (2013, Tables 3.1 and 3.2).

., Macmillan, L. and Vittori, C. (2013) ‘Lifetime intergenerational economic mobility in the UK’, Presentation to Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission Seminar on ‘Intergenerational mobility and social gradients in children’s life chances’, London, 20 November. Hansen, K. and Joshi, H. (2008) Millennium Cohort Study Third Survey: A user’s guide to initial findings, London: Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute for Education. Hedges, A. (2005) Perceptions of redistribution: Report on exploratory qualitative research, CASEpaper 96, London: London School of Economics. Hills, J. (2004a) Inequality and the state, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Hills, J. (2004b) ‘Heading for retirement? National Insurance, state pensions, and the future of the contributory principle in the UK’, Journal of Social Policy, vol 33, no 3, pp 347–71.


Raw Data Is an Oxymoron by Lisa Gitelman

23andMe, collateralized debt obligation, computer age, continuous integration, crowdsourcing, disruptive innovation, Drosophila, Edmond Halley, Filter Bubble, Firefox, fixed income, Google Earth, Howard Rheingold, index card, informal economy, Isaac Newton, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, knowledge worker, liberal capitalism, lifelogging, longitudinal study, Louis Daguerre, Menlo Park, optical character recognition, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, peer-to-peer, RFID, Richard Thaler, Silicon Valley, social graph, software studies, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, text mining, time value of money, trade route, Turing machine, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, WikiLeaks

Posing additional challenges are the recent introduction of automated instruments to chemical water sampling and analysis in the Baltimore area: producing end-to-end changes in data routines and requiring months and years of painful and sometimes uncertain calibration work before the new results can be reliably matched to data produced by older techniques. To understand the mutual construction of data and the everyday work of scientists, as well as the orientation to producing comparable longitudinal data, we cover these difficulties in three sections: (1) the weekly rituals and routines used to generate measurements that make up the database; (2) the field sites and instrumentation that both threaten and comprise the very purpose of the longitudinal study; and (3) those practices that carry data from field sites to the databases themselves. We developed these insights through ethnographic field research and from the accounts of data collectors who themselves characterize their difficulties and the lived work of data collection. Routines and Ritual: “We Go Out on Wednesdays” For the last sixteen years, teams of three or four ecoscientists, technicians, and graduate students have set out in a van once per week (most often on a Wednesday) to visit sixteen field sites in Baltimore county.

Stream flow can be reported as a zero, a finding in itself, but with no accompanying samples there is no chemistry to analyze in labs. As such, nothing can be reported at all in those fields of the database. However, the situation reversed radically in 2003 and 2004 due to reports of record moisture and renewed flow in Baltimore streams. The term for this reversal is a “climate pulse.” These “pulses” are precisely the kinds of changes our scientists hope to examine in a longitudinal study. A short-term study, months to years, could be ruined by the inability to collect samples, but in a long-term project such pulses became data in analysis that stretched across decades. Human Changes: A New Sewage System In 1999, the City of Baltimore Department of Public Works (DPW) entered into a consent decree with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to address sanitary and combined sewer overflows across the entire city.

Long-term data stretching before and after a change will open a window of understanding on urban renewal. Many cities in America and around the world are going through a similar process. But, how are these new data to be reconciled as a single longitudinal arc? Scores of variables that were well understood are thrown into a complex flux—making environmental claims difficult for those scientists to assert. Instruments: Breakdown and Automation In a longitudinal study instruments come to be part of the field sites themselves. At each of the sixteen sites, meter sticks are strategically placed in the streams. These sticks are dug into the ground on metal poles or affixed to the walls of overpasses. These allow for quick and standardized gauges of the height of the water flow, on each occasion measured from the same location. However, water flows are not static—by their very nature they continuously dig away at their own streambeds.


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Final Exam: A Surgeon's Reflections on Mortality by Pauline W. Chen

longitudinal study, medical residency, randomized controlled trial

., “Discourse on Hope.” 113 I would know how to word terrible news: While almost all physicians now approach patient conversation with the intent of full disclosure, that practice was not so commonplace a few generations ago. In 1961, 90 percent of physicians preferred not to tell their patients about a cancer diagnosis; by 1979, 98 percent of physicians would choose to do so. Novack et al., “Changes in Physicians’ Attitudes”; Oken, “Medical Attitudes.” 114 But these conversations never got easy: Dickinson and Tournier published a longitudinal study of physician attitudes toward death and terminally ill patients. They found that after a decade of practice, physicians found informing a patient about a terminal diagnosis became less difficult, but there was more discomfort in dealing with dying patients and more anxiety over death. Dickinson and Tournier, “Decade Beyond.” In a later paper, the authors found that even after twenty years of practice, physicians still experienced discomfort when dealing with dying patients.

“American Oncology and the Discourse on Hope.” Culture, Medicine, and Psychiatry 1990;14(1):59–79. Dias, L., Chabner, B. A., Lynch, T. J., Jr., et al. “Breaking Bad News: A Patient’s Perspective.” Oncologist 2003;8(6):587–96. Dickinson, G. E., Mermann, A. C. “Death Education in U.S. Medical Schools, 1975–1995.” Academic Medicine 1996;71(12):1348–49. Dickinson, G. E., Tournier, R. E. “A Decade Beyond Medical School: A Longitudinal Study of Physicians’ Attitudes Toward Death and Terminally-Ill Patients.” Social Science and Medicine 1994;38(10): 1397–1400. Dickinson, G. E., Tournier, R. E., Still, B. J. “Twenty Years Beyond Medical School: Physicians’ Attitudes Toward Death and Terminally Ill Patients.” Archives of Internal Medicine 1999;159(15):1741–44. Diem, S. J., Lantos, J. D., Tulsky, J. A. “Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation on Television.

“Family Satisfaction with Family Conferences About End-of-Life Care in the Intensive Care Unit: Increased Proportion of Family Speech Is Associated with Increased Satisfaction.” Critical Care Medicine 2004;32(7):1484–88. McDowell, J. “The Corpus and the Hare.” Modern Drug Discovery 2000;3(8):77–80. McManus, I. C., Keeling, A., Paice, E. “Stress, Burnout and Doctors’ Attitudes to Work Are Determined by Personality and Learning Style: A Twelve Year Longitudinal Study of UK Medical Graduates.” BMC Medicine 2004;2:29. Meier, D. E., Back, A. L., Morrison, R. S. “The Inner Life of Physicians and Care of the Seriously Ill.” Journal of the American Medical Association 2001;286(23):3007–14. Meisel, A., Snyder, L., Quill, T. “Seven Legal Barriers to End-of-Life Care: Myths, Realities, and Grains of Truth.” Journal of the American Medical Association 2000;284(19):2495–2501.


pages: 237 words: 74,966

The Sociopath Next Door by Martha Stout

Albert Einstein, estate planning, long peace, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, Milgram experiment, Nelson Mandela, Norman Mailer, risk tolerance, Rosa Parks, twin studies

The Pd scale of the MMPI consists of multiple-choice questions that have been statistically formulated to sort out people with sociopathic personality traits from other groups of people. The inventory includes several validity measures as well, including a “Lie Scale” to expose attempts to beat the test. Overall in these studies, identical twins are twice or more as likely to have similar scores on the Pd scale as are fraternal twins, strongly suggesting at least some genetic role in the “Psychopathic Deviate” pattern. In 1995, a major longitudinal study was published that investigated sociopathic traits and their absence in 3,226 pairs of male twins located through a register of people who had served in the United States armed services during the Vietnam War. By the same mathematical model, eight sociopathic symptoms and their absence were found to be significantly heritable. They are, in descending order of theoretical heritability: “fails to conform to social norms,” “aggressive,” “reckless,” “impulsive,” “fails to honor financial obligations,” “inconsistent work,” “never monogamous,” and “lacks remorse.”

They are, in descending order of theoretical heritability: “fails to conform to social norms,” “aggressive,” “reckless,” “impulsive,” “fails to honor financial obligations,” “inconsistent work,” “never monogamous,” and “lacks remorse.” Still other studies have found that sociopaths have low “agreeableness,” low “conscientiousness,” and low “harm avoidance,” all of which personality dimensions have a genetic component. The Texas Adoption Project, which has now been in progress for over thirty years, is a highly regarded longitudinal study of more than five hundred adopted children. The study looks at the acquisition of intelligence and various personality features, including the “Psychopathic Deviate” pattern, by comparing adopted children, now grown, with both their biological and adoptive parents. The Texas Adoption Project reports that, where scores on the Pd scale are concerned, individuals resemble their birth mothers, whom they have never met, significantly more than they do the adoptive parents who raised them.

A number of such studies have included the “Psychopathic Deviate” (Pd) scale: For a review of twin studies that have used the Pd scale, see H. Goldsmith and I. Gottesman, “Heritable Variability and Variable Heritability in Developmental Psychopathology,” in Frontiers in Developmental Psychopathology, eds. M. Lenzenweger and J. Haugaard (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996). In 1995, a major longitudinal study: M. Lyons et al., “Differential Heritability of Adult and Juvenile Antisocial Traits,” Archives of General Psychiatry 52 (1995): 906–915. Still other studies have found: See T. Widiger et al., “A Description of the DSM-III-R and DSM-IV Personality Disorders with the Five-factor Model of Personality,” in Personality Disorders and the Five-factor Model, eds. P. Costa and T. Widiger (Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association, 1994), and C.


Longevity: To the Limits and Beyond (Research and Perspectives in Longevity) by Jean-Marie Robine, James W. Vaupel, Bernard Jeune, Michel Allard

computer age, conceptual framework, demographic transition, Drosophila, epigenetics, life extension, longitudinal study, phenotype, stem cell, stochastic process

The key question that needs to be answered is how different combinations of factors involving nature and nurture combine to contribute to individual differences in longevity. The implication of this question is related to predetermination of one's life span on the one hand and self and other determinations on the other. Our current state of knowledge on aging precludes predicting longevity at an individual level. One of the lessons learned from longitudinal studies of aging is that few individuals follow the pattern of age changes described in average longitudinal functions (e.g., Dannefer and Sell 1988; Pedersen and Harris 1990). A similar phenomenon exists in cross-sectional studies of aging (e.g., Siegler et al. 1995). Averages that are supposed to describe composite characteristics of sample groups often are not representative of anyone individual.

The study examines the contributions of family longevity, support systems, individual adaptation skills, nutrition, and physical and mental health to life satisfaction and morale in community-dwelling and cognitively intact individuals aged in their 60s, 80s, and 100-plus years. An important question in predicting successful aging and longevity at the individual or group level is whether similar predictors are pertinent for both. Although there is no answer to that question at present, one might speculate that many similar predictors would be pertinent. Figure 3 shows an example of the Bonn Longitudinal Study (Thomae 1976) in which similar predictors were employed for longevity. Extension of the designs and findings from these two types of studies has the potential of providing us with an understanding of successful aging and longevity. Extant findings seem to suggest that different predictors and different Family Longevity I ~ INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS ~ Life Satisfaction Personality Gender Socioeconomic Status Age ADAPTATIONAL (BEHAVIORAL) CHARACTERISITCS Cognitive Skills Life Events and Coping Activities Awareness/Reminiscence Time Use Health Seeking Behavior HEALTH Mental Health Physical Health Fig. 2.

J GerontoI33:711-717 Po on LW, Clayton GM, Martin P, Johnson MA, Courtenay BC, Sweaney AL, Merriam SB, Pless BS, Thielman SB (l992) The Georgia Centenarian Study. Int J Aging Human Devel 34(1):1-18 Rowe JW, Kahn RL (1987) Human aging: usual and successful. Science 237:143-149 Siegler IC, Poon LW, Madden DJ, Welsh KA (1995) Psychological aspects of normal aging. In: Busse EW, Blazer DA (eds) Geriatric psychiatry Washington, DC, American Psychiatric Press, pp. 105-128 Thomae H (1976) Patterns of aging: Findings from the Bonn longitudinal study of aging. New York, Karger Woodruff-Pak DS (1988) Psychology and aging. Englewood Cliffs, NJ, Prentice-Hall, Inc Towards a Genealogical Epidemiology of Longevity I.M. Robine' and M. Allard" Like father, like son? What is the relation between the parents' or grandparents' longevity and that of their children? To what extent does genetic endowment influence the differences in longevity observed between individuals?


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This Chair Rocks: A Manifiesto Against Ageism by Ashton Applewhite

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, cognitive dissonance, crowdsourcing, desegregation, Downton Abbey, fixed income, follow your passion, ghettoisation, Google Hangouts, hiring and firing, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, life extension, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, Naomi Klein, obamacare, old age dependency ratio, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, sensible shoes, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Snapchat, stem cell, the built environment, urban decay, urban planning, white picket fence, women in the workforce

Thanks to clean water and antibiotics, TB and diarrheal diseases have given way to heart disease, cancer, and stroke. If we find a cure for those, we’ll die from something else—but not of old age, because aging is not a disease. It was long equated with illness because studies were originally carried out in long-term care and nursing facilities, where bodies and brains were rarely stimulated and many subjects were indeed ill. As the century progressed, research from projects like the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, initiated in 1958, began to decouple the two. Scientists began identifying factors that contribute to healthier aging and developing interventions to delay or prevent problems once strictly attributed to aging, like exercises to improve balance and muscle function. Researchers now draw a clear distinction between “normal aging” and disease, which is largely determined by lifestyle.

Many older adults maintain that they don’t have a problem, telling audiologists, “I hear what I want to hear.” Others assume that hearing loss is just a normal part of aging, so it can’t be harmful. They’re wrong about that. The ear plays a role in balance, and even mild hearing loss can triple the risk of falling. It’s linked to depression and also to dementia. According to research based on the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, the greater the hearing loss the steeper the rate of cognitive decline.29 I had my hearing tested after learning that, partly because I wanted to resolve an ongoing “You’re deaf”/“You need to speak louder” domestic dispute. (My partner has a beautiful low voice and speaks very softly. His mother is extremely hard of hearing, and every few minutes she asks me, “What did he say?” I turn to him and say, “Tell your mother what you said.”

Older workers do take longer to recover from workplace accidents but hurt themselves less often. As always, there’s enormous variation among individuals. Health and experience are far better indicators of workplace fitness than age, not least in physically demanding jobs like firefighting and airline piloting.3 are burned out: “Waiting for that gold watch” is as outdated a cliché as the wind-up artifact on which it’s based. The General Social Survey, a longitudinal study that has interviewed over 50,000 Americans since 1972, shows that people over sixty-five are happiest in their work. “A lot of people think of people working in their sixties and seventies as trapped in their jobs,” commented Tom W. Smith, director of the survey. “Most older workers work because they enjoy their jobs.”4 In other words, not one of the negative stereotypes that older workers confront holds up under scrutiny.


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Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010 by Charles Murray

affirmative action, assortative mating, blue-collar work, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate governance, David Brooks, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, George Gilder, Haight Ashbury, happiness index / gross national happiness, helicopter parent, illegal immigration, income inequality, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Menlo Park, new economy, Ralph Nader, Richard Florida, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, Unsafe at Any Speed, War on Poverty, working-age population, young professional

“Unless one believes that only rich people can be smart,” he writes, “we have a staggering distance to travel to achieve a fair opportunity for all to reach every level of our educational system.”17 The bias that Soares set out to investigate could occur in two ways. The first is that the pool of applicants is biased. The second is that the admissions process continues to give preferential treatment to the children of the affluent. Soares presents compelling evidence that the applicant pool is biased. Using the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS), Soares demonstrates that the applicant pool is heavily loaded toward youths who come from the high-income professional class, especially those who come from the Northeast United States. In a logistic regression analysis of the NELS data that controls for other influences on the decision to apply, Soares finds that students with the same gender, race, and SAT scores are more than three times as likely to apply to a selective school if they come from one of those professional high-income families in the Northeast, and twice as likely if they come from a professional high-income family outside the Northeast.18 Other things being equal, Asians were almost twice as likely to apply as non-Asians, and students from private schools were four times more likely to apply than students at public schools.19 So the applicant pool is skewed.

One may accept that Belmont offenders come to the criminal justice system with better representation than many Fishtown offenders without having a basis for thinking that the discrepancies in sentencing will produce statistically important changes in the proportions of offenders who appear to come from Fishtown. Now let’s turn to the other side of the ledger, and the opposite hypothesis: The estimated percentage of white criminal activity coming out of Fishtown is underestimated, perhaps grossly underestimated, because I am counting prisoners instead of crimes. Ever since criminologist Marvin Wolfgang’s pioneering longitudinal study of all of the males born in Philadelphia in 1945, scholars have found that a small proportion of those who are ever arrested account for about half of all offenses.1 The exact size of that proportion has varied by study, but it has usually been in the neighborhood of 7 percent, leading to a term of art in the criminological literature, “the dirty seven percent.” Since people are incarcerated partly because of their past criminal history as well as their current offense, people in prison have a much higher mean number of arrests than do members of an entire birth cohort, but the pattern is the same.

Since so many people reading this book, especially parents with children nearing college, assume that coaching can raise their children’s SAT scores by large amounts, discussion of this issue is warranted. From 1981 to 1990, three separate analyses of all the prior studies were published in peer-reviewed journals. They found a coaching effect of 9 to 25 points on the SAT verbal and of 15 to 25 points on the SAT math. See Herrnstein and Murray, 1994, 400–402. Derek Briggs, using the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, found effects of 3 to 20 points for the SAT verbal and 10 to 28 points for the SAT math (Briggs, 2004). Donald Powers and Donald Rock, using a nationally representative sample of students who took the SAT after its revisions in the mid-1990s, found an average coaching effect of 6 to 12 points on the SAT verbal and 13 to 18 points on the SAT math (Powers and Rock, 1999). These effects are not large enough to sway many college admissions decisions.


pages: 475 words: 134,707

The Hype Machine: How Social Media Disrupts Our Elections, Our Economy, and Our Health--And How We Must Adapt by Sinan Aral

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, augmented reality, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, computer vision, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, COVID-19, Covid-19, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, death of newspapers, disintermediation, Donald Trump, Drosophila, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, experimental subject, facts on the ground, Filter Bubble, global pandemic, hive mind, illegal immigration, income inequality, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Metcalfe’s law, mobile money, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, multi-sided market, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Network effects, performance metric, phenotype, recommendation engine, Robert Bork, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Second Machine Age, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, skunkworks, Snapchat, social graph, social intelligence, social software, social web, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Telecommunications Act of 1996, The Chicago School, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, WikiLeaks, Yogi Berra

The Spread of Fake News Online To communicate my perspective on Crimea, I have to first take you on a detour, through a story within a story, to give you some context for how I understand the events that unfolded in Ukraine. In 2016, two years after the annexation of Crimea, I was in my lab at MIT, in Cambridge, Massachusetts, hard at work on an important research project with my colleagues Soroush Vosoughi and Deb Roy. We had been working for some time, in direct collaboration with Twitter, on what was then the largest-ever longitudinal study of the spread of fake news online. It analyzed the diffusion of all the fact-checked true and false rumors that had ever spread on Twitter, in the ten years from its inception in 2006 to 2017. This study, which was published on the cover of Science in March 2018, revealed some of the first large-scale evidence on how fake news spreads online. During our research, we discovered what I still, to this day, consider some of the scariest scientific results I have ever encountered.

If friends were successfully convincing friends to adopt, then providing them with formal incentives to do so, similar to Uber’s referral program, could turbocharge the adoption curve. But if consumers were unmoved by their friends’ influence and users’ preferences correlated with their friends’ preferences due to homophily, then a network targeting strategy would perform better than a viral marketing strategy. So some rigorous data science could help Yahoo! decide how to market the product most effectively. During our longitudinal study of Go’s adoption, we collected data on 27 million users connected in Yahoo!’s global instant messaging network called Yahoo! Messenger. (It was just like AOL’s AIM or MSN Messenger.) We also collected detailed demographic and geographic data on these same users, and comprehensive, detailed data on their online behaviors and activities—about 90 billion pageviews in all. We added data records of the day-by-day adoption and usage of Yahoo!

stringent privacy regulations: Thomas Seal and Stephanie Bodoni, “How Europe Is Bumping Against Privacy Laws in Coronavirus Battle,” Bloomberg, April 4, 2020. Chapter 1: The New Social Age “marked the first time”: Madeleine Albright, former U.S. Secretary of State, testimony at hearing before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, January 29, 2015, https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/​imo/​media/​doc/​Albright_01-29-15.pdf. longitudinal study of the spread of fake news: Soroush Vosoughi, Deb Roy, and Sinan Aral, “The Spread of True and False News Online,” Science 359, no. 6380 (2018): 1146–51. the Q&A took place in a moderately sized room: You can watch the Town Hall here: https://www.facebook.com/​qawithmark/​videos/​929895810401528/. that of several investigative journalists: Adrian Chen, “The Agency,” New York Times Magazine, June 7, 2005.


pages: 346 words: 92,984

The Lucky Years: How to Thrive in the Brave New World of Health by David B. Agus

active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, butterfly effect, clean water, cognitive dissonance, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, Drosophila, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, microcredit, mouse model, Murray Gell-Mann, New Journalism, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, placebo effect, publish or perish, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, statistical model, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Thomas Malthus, wikimedia commons

What exercise was doing, essentially, was changing the body’s context—changing the environment in a way that made it less hospitable for the tumor to grow. Earlier studies have confirmed that people who are fitter during their thirties through their fifties have less chronic illness in later years. One of these studies in particular, published in the Archives of Internal Medicine in 2012, looked at 18,670 participants in the Cooper Center Longitudinal Study, which contained records of more than 250,000 patients over forty years.8 They compared the data with the participants’ Medicare claims during the ages of seventy to eighty-five. The results were similar in both men and women: People who increased their fitness levels by 20 percent in their midlife years decreased their chances of developing chronic illness by 20 percent in old age. When the individuals turned fifty, the part of the group in the bottom 20 percent of the fitness scale had almost twice as many chronic illnesses as those in the top 20 percent.

See the WHO’s global recommendations on physical activity for health, www.who.int/dietphysicalactivity/factsheet_recommendations/en. 5. S. C. Moore et al., “Leisure Time Physical Activity of Moderate to Vigorous Intensity and Mortality: A Large Pooled Cohort Analysis,” PLOS Medicine 9, no. 11 (2012): E1001335, doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001335, Epub November 6, 2012. 6. S. G. Lakoski, “Midlife Cardiorespiratory Fitness, Incident Cancer, and Survival After Cancer in Men: The Cooper Center Longitudinal Study,” JAMA Oncology 1, no. 2 (May 1, 2015): 231–37, doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2015.0226. 7. A. S. Betof et al., “Modulation of Murine Breast Tumor Vascularity, Hypoxia and Chemotherapeutic Response by Exercise,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 107, no. 5 (2015): djv040, doi:10.1093/jnci/djv040. Also see Duke Medicine, “Exercise Slows Tumor Growth, Improves Chemotherapy in Mouse Cancers,” ScienceDaily, last modified March 16, 2015, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150316185446.htm. 8.

., 27–29, 28, 33, 48 colitis, 121–22 Collins, Francis, 114, 118 colonoscopies, 93 Colorado, 47 colorectal cancer, 55, 123–24, 190, 217 statin use and, 220 Columbia University, 138 complex carbohydrates, 162 comprehensive metabolic panel (CMP), 151 Congress, US, 114, 237 context: adapting to new data in, 159 aging and, 45 baselines for, 150 changes in, 22 databases as, 83, 91–94 data mining and, 101 diet and, 163, 165 disease and, 13–14, 20 genes and, 14, 20–21, 118 health and, 48, 76–78, 84, 89–90, 91–94, 101, 113, 114–15, 117, 124–25 heart disease and, 22 identifying and optimizing, 135–52 lab tests in, 150–52 medical data and, 78–82 medical education and, 75 Cooper Center Longitudinal Study, 192 coordination, 45 Cornell University, 2 coronary artery disease, 151 cortisol, 123 counterfeit drugs, 10–11 C-reactive protein, 175 CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats), 24–25, 26, 45 Critical Care, 222 Crohn’s disease, 25, 121 CTLA-4, 29–30 cystic fibrosis, 115–16 Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Vertex, 115–16 cytokines, 123 cytoplasm, 111 cytosol, 40 Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Profile program of, 118 Dannon, 235 Dartmouth College, 157 Darwin, Charles, 112 data, medical: context and, 78–82 individual’s role in collection of, 81 databases, medical, 82–83, 95 as context, 83, 91–94 security of, 88–89 data mining, 84–89, 92 context and, 101 infectious diseases and, 100–101 Davos, Switzerland, 161 Dawkins, Richard, 17 death, leading causes of, 129 death certificates, 96 decision-making, 225, 227–28 dehydration, 234 dementia, 5, 41, 90, 91, 151, 204, 210, 215, 221 see also Alzheimer’s disease depression, 122, 211, 215 exercise and, 186 Dhaka, 232 diabetes, 22, 24, 25, 47, 59, 108, 114, 123, 128, 147, 151, 166, 175, 186, 187, 188, 215, 221, 237 gut bacteria and, 120–21 incidence of, 120–21 diet, 22, 114 chronic disease and, 141–44 as contextual, 163 honesty about, 133–34 low-cholesterol, 162 low-fat, 162 moderation in, 144 research on, see nutritional studies weight and, 141 diphtheria, 161 disease: autoimmune, 85, 125, 175 context and, 13–14, 20 genetic markers for, 22, 113–14, 127 surrogate markers for, 127–28 see also chronic disease; infectious diseases; noncommunicable diseases disorders, inherited, newborn screening and, 12 DNA, see genes, genome DNA mismatch repair, 32, 57 docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), 182 dopamine, 211 Doudna, Jennifer A., 25 dreaming, 203 drug abuse, 22 drugs, see medications Duke Cancer Institute (DCI), 191 Duke University, 30 Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development at, 45 Dulken, Ben, 63 Dunedin Study, 45–47, 46 Dyerberg, Jorn, 182–83 Dyson, Esther, 173 Earls, Felton, 213 East Africa, 44, 107 Eat, Sleep, Poop (Cohen), 137 eating patterns, heart disease and, 138–40 Ebola, 18, 221–22 E. coli, 123 eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), 182 Einstein, Albert, 2, 223 Elder, William, Jr., 115–16 electrodermal response, 230–31 Elledge, Stephen J., 84 emotions, touch and, 214 emulsifiers, microbiome and, 121–22 “end of history illusion,” 38–40, 39 End of Illness, The (Agus), 18 endoplasmic reticulum, 40 endorphins, 211 energy levels, 149 England, see Great Britain environment, see context epidemics: global spread of, 103 prediction of, 103–4 epigenetics, 20–21 esomeprazole (Nexium), 86 esophageal cancer, 217 estrogen, 64 ethics: genome editing and, 24–25 medical advances and, 10, 24 technology and, 25–26 Europe, 77 European Journal of Immunology, 34 exercise, 21, 114, 140, 185–201 chemotherapy and, 191, 192 honesty about, 133–34 ideal amount of, 196–200 intensity of, 197–98 life expectancy and, 189–90 mortality rates and, 148 Exeter, University of, 157 “Experimental Prolongation of the Life Span” (McCay, Lunsford, and Pope), 2 experimental treatments, quicker access to, 56 Facebook, 27 fasting lipid profile, 150 feebleness, aging and, 43 fertility, aging and, 43 Field, Tiffany, 214 financial industry, information technology and, 89 Finland, 220 fish oil, 182–83 Florida, 103 flu vaccine: misinformation about, 157–58 public distrust of, 160 FODMAPs (fermentable oligo-di-monosaccharides and polyols), 164 Fodor, George, 183 food, safety of, 11 Food and Drug Administration, US (FDA), 2, 18, 51, 55, 56, 86, 111, 112, 127–28, 146, 182, 201 Accelerated Approval provisions of, 128 Foundation Medicine, 50 Framingham Heart Study, 47, 118 Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 169 free radicals, 208 fruit flies, eating pattern studies with, 138–40 fungi, 119 gait, 45 galvanic skin response (GSR), 230–31 gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), 86 Gates, Bill, 2 Genentech, 56 genes, genome, 45, 83–84 aging and, 20, 41 bacterial, 107, 119 context and, 14, 20–21, 118 DNA mismatch repair and, 32 expression of, 20–21, 125, 139 mitochondrial, see mitochondrial DNA sequencing of, 20, 23, 49–52, 112 SNPs in, 113–14 as switches, 41 viruses and, 119–20 genes, genome, editing of, 24–25, 45 ethics of, 102–5 genetically modified foods (GMOs), 18 genetic markers, 22, 113–14, 127 genetic mutations: aging and, 41 cancer and, 14, 21–22, 50 disease risk and, 9, 12 genetic screening, 103, 117, 137 flawed results in, 8–10 of newborns, 11–12 Georgia State University, 121 Gewirtz, Andrew, 121 Gibson, Peter, 164 Gilbert, Daniel, 38, 39, 40 Gillray, James, 161 Gladwell, Malcolm, 225, 227, 228 Gleevec (imatinib), 55 glial cells, 209 glioblastoma, 30 “Global Recommendations on Physical Activity for Health” (WHO), 187 gluten, debate over, 163–65 Goldstein, Irwin, 211 Google, 87, 88, 101 Google Flu Trends, 101 Grameen Bank, 232, 233–34, 235 Grameen Danone, 235 Graunt, John, 100 Great Britain, 96, 97, 100, 110, 155 Black Death in, 95–101, 98, 99, 100 Greatist.com, 200 Greenland, 182 Grove, Andy, 7, 7 growth factors, 59 gun violence, 91 gut: inflammation of, 120, 122 microbiome of, see microbiome H2 blockers, 86 habits and routines, 136, 137–41, 228, 237–38 see also diet; lifestyle choices Harlow, Harry, 213 Harvard Medical School, 84 Harvard School of Public Health, 142–43 Harvard University, 3, 23, 24, 37, 178, 186, 196, 212, 213, 216 hash tables, health care and, 87–88 Hawaii, 47 HDL cholesterol, 150 health: biological age and, 47 context and, 48, 76–78, 84, 89–90, 91–94, 101, 113, 114–15, 117, 124–25 family history of, 136–37 honesty about, 131–34 inflection point in, 8 lifestyle and, see lifestyle choices optimism and, 65–69 personal baselines for, 150 retirement and, 91–92 technology and, 37–70 health and fitness apps, 200 Health and Human Services Department, US, 103 health care: Affordable Care Act and, 69–70 hash tables and, 87–88 individual’s responsibility in, 12–13, 26, 70, 75, 78, 131–32 misinformation about, 14–15, 18, 19, 154, 157–58 politics and, 11–12 portable electronic devices and, 79, 90–91 Health Professionals Follow-up Study, 142–43, 217 health threats, prediction of, 103–4 heart: biological age of, 47–48 health of, 48 heart attacks, 76, 86, 182, 217, 218 heart disease, 59, 128, 150, 166, 175, 183, 186, 187, 215, 217, 221 context and, 22 diet and, 163 eating patterns and, 138–40 lifestyle choices and, 22 muscle mass and, 195 heart rates, 231 heart rate variability (HRV), 230 Heathrow Airport, 92 “hedonic reactions,” 38–40 heel sticks, 11–12 hemoglobin A1C test, 151 hepatitis B, 175 hepatitis C, 175 Herceptin (trastuzumab), 55 high blood pressure, 22, 188, 195 high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) test, 151 hippocampus, 214 Hippocrates, 71, 113, 122, 216 HIV/AIDS, 18, 24, 25, 59, 84, 127–28, 131, 159 Hoffmann, Felix, 215, 216 Holland, 41 Homeland Security Department, US, 103 homeostasis, 137–38, 140 Homo sapiens, evolution of, 107 honesty: about health, 131–34 nutritional studies and, 162 hormones, 219 hormone therapy, 201 Horton, Richard, 178 Hospital for the Ruptured and Crippled (Hospital for Special Surgery), 28 house calls, 80 Houston Methodist, 86 “how do you feel” question, 231 hugs, 214 Human Genome Project, 113, 120 human growth hormone, 200 Human Molecular Genetics, 65 human papilloma virus (HPV), 161, 175 Hurricane Sandy, 84 Huxley, Aldous, viii, 6, 159, 238 Hydra magnipapillata, 42, 42 hyperglycemia, 122 hypertension, 125, 195, 203 IBM, 88–89 imatinib (Gleevec), 55 immune reactions, 5 immune system, 175, 190, 209, 211 aging and, 44 impact of hugs on, 214 immunotherapy, 28–33 polio virus and, 30, 31 incentives, 235–36 Indiana University Bloomington School of Informatics and Computing’s Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research, 94–95 infant mortality, 87, 97 infants: genetic screening of, 11–12 premature, 87 infections, 175–76 infectious diseases, 129 antibiotic-resistant, 67–69, 68 data mining and, 100–101 inflammation, 34, 151, 174–77, 181, 187, 190, 195, 215–22 inflammatory bowel disease, 121 inflection points, 7–8, 7 influenza, 161 risks from, 157 vaccine for, see flu vaccine information, sorting good from bad, 19–20 information technology, financial industry and, 89 inherited disorders, newborn genetic screening and, 12 insomnia, 122 Institute for Sexual Medicine, 211 insulin, 56, 190 insulin sensitivity, 5, 87, 120, 122, 151, 195 insurance companies, off-label drugs and, 55 Intel, 7 International Agency for Research on Cancer, 170 International Prevention Research Institute, 180 intuition, 224–29 Inuits, 182–83 in vitro fertilization (IVF), three-person, 109–12, 110 Ioannidis, John, 178 IRBs (institutional review boards), 52 iron deficiency, 231 irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), 164 Islam, 234 Italy, 183 ivacaftor (Kalydeco), 115–16 JAMA Internal Medicine, 142, 143, 192, 196 Jenner, Edward, 160, 161 Jobs, Steve, 2, 23–24, 26, 49 Johns Hopkins Hospital, 71, 72, 128 Hurd Hall at, 74 Osler Medical Housestaff Training Program at, 73–75, 74 Johns Hopkins Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, 32 Johns Hopkins University, 23, 169, 170, 171, 173, 174, 175, 176, 215 Jolie, Angelina, 21 Jones, Owen, 43 Journal of Sexual Medicine, 211 Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), 72, 114–15, 173, 201, 220, 221 Journal of the American Osteopathic Association, 154 Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 169 Journal of Urology, 168 journals, medical, misinformation in, 154, 179 J.


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Also Human: The Inner Lives of Doctors by Caroline Elton

Alvin Roth, fear of failure, feminist movement, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Rubik’s Cube, women in the workforce

In 1983 two junior doctors asked psychologist Jenny Firth-Cozens if something could be done about the stress and depression that they saw all around them. Two first-year doctors in one hospital had killed themselves in the previous month, yet no senior clinicians discussed this within their teams. It was unmentionable. This prompted Firth-Cozens to undertake a series of longitudinal studies of medical students and junior doctors. Four years later, in 1987, Firth-Cozens reported the results of a longitudinal study of 170 first-year junior doctors in the British Medical Journal (BMJ): 28 percent of the sample had scores on standardized questionnaires that indicated the presence of a depressive illness, and ten individuals reported thoughts of suicide. “The incidence of distress is unacceptably high in junior [doctors], and both they and the hospitals need to deal with the causes of distress,” Firth-Cozens concluded.

., “UK Medical Graduates Preparedness for Practice: Final Report to the GMC,” GMC (2014), www.gmc-uk.org/How_Prepared_are _UK_Medical_Graduates_for_Practice_SUBMITTED_Revised_140614.pdf_58034815.pdf. at the height of the junior doctors’ strike: Clarke, R., “Suicides Among Junior Doctors in the NHS,” BMJ 357 (2017), 10.1136/bmj.j2527. psychologist Jenny Firth-Cozens: Firth, J., “Levels and Source of Stress in Medical Students,” Br Med J (Clin Res Ed) 292 (1986), pp. 1177–1180. in 1987 Firth-Cozens reported the results of a longitudinal study of 170 first-year junior doctors: Firth-Cozens, J., “Emotional Distress in Junior House Officers,” Br Med J (Clin Res Ed) 295 (1987), pp. 533–536. Twenty years after starting the first research project: Firth-Cozens, J., “Doctors, Their Wellbeing, and Their Stress,” BMJ 326:670 (2003), pp. 670–671. in 2015 following the suicide of two first-year residents: Goldman, L. M., et al., “Depression and Suicide Among Physician Trainees: Recommendations for a National Response,” JAMA Psychiatry 72:5 (2015), pp. 411–412.


pages: 208 words: 51,277

Chicken: The Dangerous Transformation of America's Favorite Food by Steve Striffler

clean water, collective bargaining, corporate raider, illegal immigration, immigration reform, longitudinal study, market design, place-making, Ronald Reagan, Upton Sinclair, upwardly mobile

On the varied nature of growers’ opinions, see Stull and Broadway, Slaughterhouse Blues. . Interview with Poultry Grower #, June , . . There is a rich literature on poultry growers. Steve Bjerklie has a helpful statement of the issues involved in “Dark Passages,” Meat and Poul- Notes to Pages – 180 try, parts  and  (Aug./Oct. ). For an interesting longitudinal study, see William D. Heffernan and David H. Lind, “Changing Structure in the Broiler Industry: The Third Phase of a Thirty-Year Longitudinal Study (Unpublished report available from the authors at the Department of Rural Sociology, University of Missouri, Columbia, ). Stull and Broadway, in their Slaughterhouse Blues, provide an excellent case study for a poultry region in Kentucky. . B. W. Marion and H. B. Arthur,“Dynamic Factors in Vertical Commodity Systems: A Case Study of the Broiler System” (Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, Wooster, ).


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Let Them In: The Case for Open Borders by Jason L. Riley

affirmative action, business cycle, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, declining real wages, deindustrialization, desegregation, guest worker program, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, mass immigration, open borders, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Silicon Valley, trade liberalization, War on Poverty, working poor, working-age population, zero-sum game

Those kinds of numbers can and do produce an illusion of nonadvancement. That’s why it’s important to remember, when considering “averages,” that Latino migration is ongoing. The public is fed a lot of snapshot data on English-language skills and high school dropout rates, but they are of little use in measuring assimilation. What we really want to know is how immigrants are faring over time, and only longitudinal studies can provide that information. As Michael Barone writes in The New Americans, “The statistics showing that the average Latino has only slightly improved mastery of English, education levels, and incomes are actually evidence of substantial gains.” How so? Because “overall statistics that average in huge numbers of new arrivals mask the progress that pre-existing immigrants have made.” In Immigrants and Boomers, Dowell Myers expands on this point, calling it the Peter Pan fallacy.

He explains: “Now that the longer-settled immigrants are beginning to outweigh the newcomers in number, the force of upward mobility is no longer being offset by the relatively high poverty of newcomers, and the total poverty rate of the foreign-born has turned around.” Myers is hardly the only social scientist to notice Latino upward mobility, and California isn’t the only place it’s happening. In a definitive longitudinal study in the 1990s, sociologists Alejandro Portes and Ruben Rumbaut found substantial second-generation progress among Latinos in Miami and Fort Lauderdale as well. Nationwide cross-generational studies show the same results. In 2006, economist James Smith of the RAND Corporation found that successive generations of Latinos have experienced significant improvements in wages relative both to their fathers and grandfathers and to the native whites with whom they compete for jobs.


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Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst by Robert M. Sapolsky

autonomous vehicles, Bernie Madoff, biofilm, blood diamonds, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Brownian motion, car-free, clean water, cognitive dissonance, corporate personhood, corporate social responsibility, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, desegregation, different worldview, double helix, Drosophila, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Flynn Effect, framing effect, fudge factor, George Santayana, global pandemic, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, impulse control, income inequality, John von Neumann, Loma Prieta earthquake, long peace, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mohammed Bouazizi, Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay, mouse model, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, out of africa, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, placebo effect, publication bias, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Rosa Parks, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, stem cell, Steven Pinker, strikebreaker, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, traveling salesman, trickle-down economics, twin studies, ultimatum game, Walter Mischel, wikimedia commons, zero-sum game

Gini, “Social Cognition and Moral Cognition in Bullying: What’s Wrong?” Aggressive Behav 32 (2006): 528; S. Shakoor et al., “A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Children’s Theory of Mind and Adolescent Involvement in Bullying,” J Child Psych and Psychiatry 53 (2012): 254. 43. J. D. Unenever, “Bullies, Aggressive Victims, and Victims: Are They Distinct Groups?” Aggressive Behav 31 (2005): 153; D. P. Farrington and M. M. Tofi, “Bullying as a Predictor of Offending, Violence and Later Life Outcomes,” Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health 21 (2011): 90; M. Tofi et al., “The Predictive Efficiency of School Bullying Versus Later Offending: A Systematic/Meta-analytic Review of Longitudinal Studies,” Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health 21 (2011): 80; T. R. Nansel et al., “Cross-National Consistency in the Relationship Between Bullying Behaviors and Psychosocial Adjustment,” Arch Pediatrics & Adolescent Med 158 (2004): 730; J.

Toth et al., “Post-weaning Social Isolation Induces Abnormal Forms of Aggression in Conjunction with Increased Glucocorticoid and Autonomic Stress Responses,” Horm Behav 60 (2011): 28. 33. S. Lupien et al., “Effects of Stress Throughout the Lifespan on the Brain, Behaviour and Cognition,” Nat Rev Nsci 10 (2009): 434; V. Carrion et al., “Stress Predicts Brain Changes in Children: A Pilot Longitudinal Study on Youth Stress, Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, and the Hippocampus,” Pediatrics 119 (2007): 509; F. L. Woon and D. W. Hedges, “Hippocampal and Amygdala Volumes in Children and Adults with Childhood Maltreatment–Related Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: A Meta-analysis,” Hippocampus 18 (2008): 729. 34. S. J. Lupien et al., “Effects of Stress Throughout the Lifespan on the Brain, Behaviour and Cognition,” Nat Rev Nsci 10 (2009): 434; D.

., “Assessing Exposure to Violence in Urban Youth,” J Child Psych and Psychiatry 39 (1998): 215; P. T. Sharkey et al., “The Effect of Local Violence on Children’s Attention and Impulse Control,” Am J Public Health 102 (2012): 2287; J. B. Bingenheimer et al., “Firearm Violence Exposure and Serious Violent Behavior,” Sci 308 (2005): 1323. Footnote: I. Shaley et al., “Exposure to Violence During Childhood Is Associated with Telomere Erosion from 5 to 10 Years of Age: A Longitudinal Study,” Mol Psychiatry 18 (2013): 576. 41. For a particularly good review, see L. Huesmann and L. Taylor, “The Role of Media Violence in Violent Behavior,” Ann Rev of Public Health 27 (2006): 393. See also J. D. Johnson et al., “Differential Gender Effects of Exposure to Rap Music on African American Adolescents’ Acceptance of Teen Dating Violence,” Sex Roles 33 (1995): 597; J. Johnson et al., “Television Viewing and Aggressive Behavior During Adolescence and Adulthood,” Sci 295 (2002): 2468; J.


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Little Bets: How Breakthrough Ideas Emerge From Small Discoveries by Peter Sims

Amazon Web Services, Black Swan, Clayton Christensen, complexity theory, David Heinemeier Hansson, deliberate practice, discovery of penicillin, endowment effect, fear of failure, Frank Gehry, Guggenheim Bilbao, Jeff Bezos, knowledge economy, lateral thinking, Lean Startup, longitudinal study, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, PageRank, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, Ruby on Rails, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, theory of mind, Toyota Production System, urban planning, Wall-E

Chapter 2 Vinod Khosla “fail in every possible way”: Quote from “How to Succeed In Silicon Valley by Bumbling and Failing …” by Tom Foreminski, Silicon Valley Watcher, June 28, 2009. Research on mind-sets: Interview discussions with Dr. Carol Dweck and the following secondary sources: Mindset: The New Psychology of Success by Carol Dweck, Random House (2006). “Implicit Theories of Intelligence Predict Achievement Across an Adolescent Transition: A Longitudinal Study and an Intervention,” by Lisa S. Blackwell, Kali H. Trzesniewski, and Carol Dweck, Child Development, 78, 246–263. “Caution: Praise Can Be Dangerous,” American Educator, Spring 1999. “Children’s Implicit Personality Theories as Predictors of Their Social Judgments,” by Cynthia A. Erdley and Carol Dweck, Child Development, 1993, 64, 863–878. “The Effects of Praise on Children’s Intrinsic Motivation: A Review and Synthesis,” (a meta-analysis) by Jennifer Henderlong and Mark R.

Small teams are critical, as is training and experience with the methods of which there are many variations, including Scrum, Ruby on Rails, Lean Startup, Customer Development Model, and so on. In general, Silicon Valley Internet entrepreneurs use agile methods because they can, and often must given their constraints. Creativity research on problem finding versus problem solving: Interview with Dr. R. Keith Sawyer, Washington University. The Creative Vision: A Longitudinal Study of Problem Finding in Art, by J. W. Getzels and M. Csikszentmihalyi, Wiley (1976). “The Domain of Creativity,” by M. Csikszentmihalyi, in Theories of Creativity, Mark Runco and Robert S. Albert (eds.), Sage (1990), 190–212. Good summary of the Getzels and Csikszentmihalyi research in Explaining Creativity: The Science of Human Innovation by R. Keith Sawyer, Oxford University Press (2006).


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Peak: Secrets From the New Science of Expertise by Anders Ericsson, Robert Pool

Albert Einstein, deliberate practice, iterative process, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Rubik’s Cube, sensible shoes

. [>] pretty much what we knew: My own review of evidence for the acquired nature of perfect pitch is summarized in K. Anders Ericsson and Irene Faivre, “What’s exceptional about exceptional abilities?” in The Exceptional Brain: Neuropsychology of Talent and Special Abilities, ed. Loraine K. Obler and Deborah Fein (New York: Guilford, 1988), 436–473. [>] scientific journal Psychology of Music: Ayako Sakakibara, “A longitudinal study of the process of acquiring absolute pitch: A practical report of training with the ‘chord identification method,’” Psychology of Music 42, no. 1 (2014): 86–111. [>] notes played on the piano: Two of the twenty-four children dropped out over the course of the training, but their departures had nothing to do with how well their training was going. All twenty-two children who finished the training exhibited perfect pitch. [>] professional adult musicians: Deutsch, Mozart, 21. [>] violin, the keyboard, and more: Stanley Sadie, Mozart: The Early Years, 1756–1781 (New York: W.

. [>] “knowledge telling”: The terms “knowledge telling” and “knowledge transforming” come from Scardamalia and Bereiter, ibid. [>] representations the best ones create: For a good overview, see Paul L. Sikes, “The effects of specific practice strategy use on university string players’ performance,” Journal of Research in Music Education 61, no. 3 (2013): 318–333. [>] more or less effective: Gary E. McPherson and James M. Renwick, “A longitudinal study of self-regulation in children’s music practice,” Music Education Research 3, no. 2 (2001): 169–186. [>] three thousand music students: Susan Hallam, Tiija Rinta, Maria Varvarigou, Andrea Creech, Ioulia Papageorgi, Teresa Gomes, and Jennifer Lanipekun, “The development of practicing strategies in young people,” Psychology of Music 40, no. 5 (2012): 652–680. [>] performs a piece of music: Roger Chaffin and Gabriela Imreh, “‘Pulling teeth and torture’: Musical memory and problem solving,” Thinking and Reasoning 3, no. 4 (1997): 315–336; Roger Chaffin and Gabriela Imreh, “A comparison of practice and self-report as sources of information about the goals of expert practice,” Psychology of Music 29 (2001): 39–69; Roger Chaffin, Gabriela Imreh, Anthony F.

. [>] children with a temperament that encourages social interaction: Melanie Noel, Carole Peterson, and Beulah Jesso, “The relationship of parenting stress and child temperament to language development among economically disadvantages preschoolers,” Journal of Child Language 35, no. 4 (2008): 823–843. [>] infants who paid more attention to a parent: Brad M. Farrant and Stephen R. Zubrick, “Parent-child book reading across early childhood and child vocabulary in the early school years: Findings from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children,” First Language 33 (2013): 280–293. [>] a story in his book Outliers: Malcolm Gladwell, Outliers: The Story of Success (New York: Little, Brown, 2008). [>] advantage among hockey players does seem to taper off: See, for example, Benjamin G. Gibbs, Mikaela Dufur, Shawn Meiners, and David Jeter, “Gladwell’s big kid bias?” Contexts 9, no. 4 (2010): 61–62. [>] experience playing linear board games: Robert S.


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The Big Shift: Navigating the New Stage Beyond Midlife by Marc Freedman

airport security, Berlin Wall, David Brooks, follow your passion, illegal immigration, Isaac Newton, longitudinal study, McMansion, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, transcontinental railway, working poor, working-age population

Today the program serves more than 20,000 children, and Jones is actively involved in his midnineties. As Jones’s story suggests, while generativity is expressed in various ways across the life course, the postmidlife period represents something of a high-water mark for the impulse, most likely triggered by the question of mortality. Susan Krauss Whitbourne, a psychologist at the University of Massachusetts, for example, conducted a longitudinal study over three decades looking at adult development. In her research, Whitbourne found that participants who scored high on self-fulfillment in the middle years and beyond were engaged in work that moved them beyond narrow personal concerns to concern for others. She finds particularly that “the desire to leave a positive legacy is a fundamental motivation that in turn serves as the ultimate basis for self-fulfillment.”

Vaillant, Adaptation to Life (Boston: Little, Brown, 1977) and Aging Well: Surprising Guideposts to a Happier Life from the Landmark Harvard Study of Adult Development (Boston: Little, Brown, 2002); John Snarey, How Fathers Care for the Next Generation: A Four-Decade Study (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1993). 95 The late American historian Christopher Lasch: Christopher Lasch, “Aging in a Culture Without a Future,” Hastings Center Report (August 1977). 97 conducted a longitudinal study: Susan Krauss Whitbourne, The Search for Fulfillment: Revolutionary New Research That Reveals the Secret to Long-Term Happiness (New York: Ballantine Books, 2010). CHAPTER 6: ROUTES OF PASSAGE 105 Paula Lopez Crespin’s story and her quotes are culled from several interviews with her, including time at the Cole Arts and Science Academy in Denver, as well as this portrait of her: Cecilia Capuzzi Simon, “So You Want to Be a Teacher for America?”


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Rethinking Narcissism: The Bad---And Surprising Good---About Feeling Special by Dr. Craig Malkin

Bernie Madoff, greed is good, helicopter parent, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Ronald Reagan, theory of mind

Campbell, W. K., and J. D. Miller. The Handbook of Narcissism and Narcissistic Personality Disorder: Theoretical approaches, empirical findings, and treatments. John Wiley & Sons, 2011. Cater, T. E., V. Zeigler-Hill, and J. Vonk. Narcissism and recollections of early life experiences. Personality and Individual Differences, 2011, vol. 51(8), pp. 935–39. Cramer, P. Young. Adult Narcissism: A 20 year longitudinal study of the contribution of parenting styles, preschool precursors of narcissism, and denial. Journal of Research in Personality, 2011, vol. 45(1), pp. 19–28. Cramer, P., and C. J. Jones. Narcissism, identification, and longitudinal change in psychological health: Dynamic predictions. Journal of Research in Personality, 2008, vol. 42(5), pp. 1148–59. Ettensohn, M. D. The Relational Roots of Narcissism: Exploring relationships between attachment style, acceptance by parents and peers, and measures of grandiose and vulnerable narcissism.

Child-care practices anteceding three patterns of preschool behavior. Genetic Psychology Monographs, 1967 vol. 75, pp. 43–88. Brown, K. M., R. Hoye, and M. Nicholson. Self-esteem, self-efficacy, and social connectedness as mediators of the relationship between volunteering and well-being. Journal of Social Service Research, 2012, vol. 38(4), pp. 468–83. Cramer, P. Young. Adult narcissism: A 20 year longitudinal study of the contribution of parenting styles, preschool precursors of narcissism, and denial. Journal of Research in Personality, 2011, vol. 45(1), pp. 19–28. The four parenting style descriptors in this chapter are taken in part or adapted from Cramer’s analysis. Choi, Y., Y. S. Kim, S. Y. Kim, and I. K. Park. Is Asian American parenting controlling and Harsh? Empirical testing of relationships between Korean American and Western parenting measures.


The Other Side of Happiness: Embracing a More Fearless Approach to Living by Brock Bastian

cognitive dissonance, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, helicopter parent, impulse control, income inequality, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Steven Pinker, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce

One officer describes the result of these shared experiences as ‘a closeness unknown to all outsiders. Comrades [initiates] are closer than friends … closer than brothers. Their relationship is different from that of lovers. Their trust in and knowledge of each other is total.’19 Beyond the use of these practices in training, the trauma of war often works in the same way. This was observed in a longitudinal study of American war veterans.20 Soldiers who had experienced combat, war trauma and the loss of significant others felt bonded together through these events. More recently, a field study of Libyan revolutionaries found that front-line fighters reported especially high levels of bonding between themselves and others in their battalion, compared to those who served in logistical support roles.21 In fact, for half of the combatants surveyed, they felt stronger bonds with their fellow battalion members than with their own families.

., Winter, J. J. and Davidson, R. J. (2011). The integration of negative affect, pain and cognitive control in the cingulate cortex. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 12, 154–67. 7 Gray, K. and Wegner, D. M. (2010). Blaming God for our pain: Human suffering and the divine mind. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 14 (1), 7–16. 8 Sibley, C. G. and Bulbulia, J. (2012). Faith after an earthquake: A longitudinal study of religion and perceived health before and after the 2011 Christchurch New Zealand earthquake. PLoS One, 7 (12), e49648. 9 Norenzayan, A. and Hansen, I. G. (2006). Belief in supernatural agents in the face of death. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 32 (2), 174–87. 10 Whitson, J. A. and Galinsky, A. D. (2008). Lacking control increases illusory pattern perception. Science, 322 (5898), 115–17. 11 Simonov, P.


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Lost Connections: Uncovering the Real Causes of Depression – and the Unexpected Solutions by Johann Hari

basic income, Berlin Wall, call centre, correlation does not imply causation, Donald Trump, gig economy, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, John Snow's cholera map, Joi Ito, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, Occupy movement, open borders, placebo effect, precariat, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, Rat Park, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), the scientific method, The Spirit Level, twin studies, universal basic income, urban planning, zero-sum game

“Holidays made them unhappy,” Marmot, The Health Gap, 180. a “lack of balance between efforts and rewards.” Marmot, Status Syndrome, 125. Chapter 7: Cause Two: Disconnection from Other People When John and his colleagues added up the data For this chapter I have drawn on many published studies by John and his colleagues. They include: Y. Luo et al., “Loneliness, health, and mortality in old age: A national longitudinal study,” Social Science & Medicine 74, no. 6 (March 2012): 907–914; Cacioppo et al., “Loneliness as a specific risk factor for depressive symptoms: Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses,” Psychology and Aging 21, no. 1 (March 2006): 140–151; L. C. Hawkley and J. T. Cacioppo, “Loneliness Matters: A Theoretical and Empirical Review of Consequences and Mechanisms,” Ann Behav Med 40, no. 2 (2010): 218; Cacioppo et al., “Loneliness and Health: Potential Mechanisms,” Psychosomatic Medicine 64, no. 3 (May/June 2002): 407–417; J.

However, he said, there is a whole range of techniques which suggest there is a deeper relationship than coincidence here. He explained to me—and in his published research—that (1) In experimental settings, you can make people more materialistic or less materialistic in the moment. This is called “priming”—you get people to unconsciously think about money, and then you see if their mood changes afterward. (2) You can do longitudinal studies, which track changes in people’s materialism, and see the relationship with depression. (3) You can look at the evidence about what happens when people do become more materialistic—and it demonstrates that when this happens, it “sets up a lifestyle for themselves which does a relatively bad job of meeting their psychological needs, and the research bears that out pretty well. So they end up feeling less free, they end up feeling less competent, they end up with worse interpersonal relationships, and that in turn is associated with lower levels of well-being.”

there was a controversy after a company marketing diet products put advertisements in the London Underground Rose Hackman, “Are you beach body ready? Controversial weight loss ad sparks varied reactions,” The Guardian, June 27, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jun/27/beach-body-ready-america-weight-loss-ad-instagram, as accessed January 10, 2017. It was a big and measurable effect Tim Kasser et al., “Changes in materialism, changes in psychological well-being: Evidence from three longitudinal studies and an intervention experiment,” Motivation and Emotion 38 (2014): 1–22. Chapter 20: Reconnection Five: Sympathetic Joy, and Overcoming Addiction to the Self Dr. Miguel Farias and Catherine Wilkholm, The Buddha Pill: Can Meditation Change You? (New York: Watkins, 2015), 108–9; T. Toneatta and L Nguyen: “Does mindfulness meditation improve anxiety and mood symptoms? A review of the evidence,” Canadian Journal of Psychiatry 52, no. 4 (2007): 260–266; J.


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The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom by Jonathan Haidt

coherent worldview, crack epidemic, delayed gratification, feminist movement, hedonic treadmill, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, invisible hand, job satisfaction, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Peter Singer: altruism, PIHKAL and TIHKAL, placebo effect, prisoner's dilemma, Ralph Waldo Emerson, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), social intelligence, stem cell, telemarketer, the scientific method, twin studies, ultimatum game, Walter Mischel, zero-sum game

T h e elderly benefit even more than do other adults, particularly when their volunteer work either involves direct person-to-person helping or is done through a religious organization. T h e benefits of volunteer work for the elderly are so large that they even show up in improved health and longer life. Stephanie Brown and her colleagues at the University of Michigan found striking evidence of such effects when they examined data from a large longitudinal study of older married c o u p l e s . 2 8 T h o s e who reported giving more help and support to spouses, friends, and relatives went on to live longer than those who gave less (even after controlling for factors such as health at the beginning of the study period), whereas the a m o u n t of help that people reported receiving showed no relationship to longevity. Brown's finding shows directly that, at least for older p e o p l e , it really is more blessed to give than to receive.

However, it is not clear that married people, are, on average, happier than those who never married, because unhappily married people are the least happy group of nil and they pull down the average; see DePaulo and Morris, 2005, for a critique nl' research on the benefits of marriage. 15. Harker and Keltner, 2001; Lyubomirsky, King, and Diener, in press. I 6. Baumeister and Leary, 1995. I Iowever, it is not certain that marriage itself is more beneficial than other kinds of companionship. M u c h evidence says yes, particularly for health, wealth, and longevity (reviewed in Waite a n d Gallagher, .'.()()()); but a large longitudinal study failed to find a long-lasting benefit of mari lage on reports of well-being (Lucas et al., 2003). 17. Diener et al., 1999; Myers, 2 0 0 0 . 18. Argyle, 1999. S o m e studies find a larger race difference, but w h e n differences in income and job status are controlled for, the differences b e c o m e small HI insignificant. 19. Diener et al., 1999; Lucas and Gohm, 2000. 20. C a r s t e n s e n et al., 2 0 0 0 ; Diener and S u h , 1998.

Psychological Bulletin, 85, 1030—105 1. I .eys, S. (Ed.). (1997). The analects of Confucius. New York: Norton. I .ichtheim, M. ( 1 9 7 6 ) . Ancient egyptial literature: A book of readings. Vol. 2, The new kingdom. Berkeley: University of California. Lorenz, K. J. (1935). Der kumpan in der umvelt des vogels. Journal fur Orni-thologie, 83, 137-213. I .ucas, R. E. (2005). Happiness can change: A longitudinal study of adaptation to disability. Unpublished manuscript. Michigan State University. Lucas, R. E., Clark, A. E., Georgellis, Y., & Diener, E. (2003). Reexamining adaptation and the set point model of happiness: Reactions to changes in marital s t a t u s . Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 8 4 , 5 2 7 — 5 3 9 . I .ucas, R. E., 8c Dyrenforth, P. S. (in press). Does the existence of social relationships matter for subjective well-being?


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The Practice of Cloud System Administration: DevOps and SRE Practices for Web Services, Volume 2 by Thomas A. Limoncelli, Strata R. Chalup, Christina J. Hogan

active measures, Amazon Web Services, anti-pattern, barriers to entry, business process, cloud computing, commoditize, continuous integration, correlation coefficient, database schema, Debian, defense in depth, delayed gratification, DevOps, domain-specific language, en.wikipedia.org, fault tolerance, finite state, Firefox, Google Glasses, information asymmetry, Infrastructure as a Service, intermodal, Internet of things, job automation, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, load shedding, longitudinal study, loose coupling, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, Marc Andreessen, place-making, platform as a service, premature optimization, recommendation engine, revision control, risk tolerance, side project, Silicon Valley, software as a service, sorting algorithm, standardized shipping container, statistical model, Steven Levy, supply-chain management, Toyota Production System, web application, Yogi Berra

Some require that all the far-end (switch) connections be plugged into the same switch, while others do not have such a limit. The latter approach provides resiliency against switch failure, not just NIC failure. Many different algorithms are available for determining which packets go over which physical link. With some, it is possible for packets to arrive out of order. While all protocols should handle this situation, many do not do it well. * * * Longitudinal Studies on Hardware Failures Google has published to two longitudinal studies of hardware failures. Most studies of such failures are done in laboratory environments. Google meticulously collects component failure information on its entire fleet of machines, providing probably the best insight into actual failure patterns. Both studies are worth reading. “Failure Trends in a Large Disk Drive Population” (Pinheiro, Weber & Barroso 2007) analyzed a large population of hard disks over many years.

• “The Google File System” (Ghemawat, Gobioff & Leung 2003) • ”MapReduce: Simplified Data Processing on Large Clusters” (Dean & Ghemawat 2004) • “Bigtable: A Distributed Storage System for Structured Data” (Chang et al. 2006) • “The Chubby Lock Service for Loosely-Coupled Distributed Systems” (Burrows 2006) • “Spanner: Google’s Globally-Distributed Database” (Corbett et al. 2012) • “The Tail at Scale” (Dean & Barroso 2013) Improving latency means fixing the last percentile. • “Failure Trends in a Large Disk Drive Population” (Pinheiro, Weber & Barroso 2007) Longitudinal study of hard drive failures. • “DRAM Errors in the Wild: A Large-Scale Field Study” (Schroeder, Pinheiro & Weber 2009) Longitudinal study of DRAM failures. Classic Facebook Papers: • “Cassandra: A Decentralized Structured Storage System” (Lakshman & Malik 2010) Scalability: • The Art of Scalability: Scalable Web Architecture, Processes, and Organizations for the Modern Enterprise (Abbott & Fisher 2009) An extensive catalog of techniques and discussion of scalability of people, process, and technology


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Food Allergy: Adverse Reactions to Foods and Food Additives by Dean D. Metcalfe

active measures, Albert Einstein, bioinformatics, epigenetics, hygiene hypothesis, impulse control, life extension, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, pattern recognition, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, statistical model, stem cell, twin studies

Simon Abbreviations AA AAF AAP ACCD Arachidonic acid Amino acid-based formula American Association of Pediatrics 1-Aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid deaminase ACD Allergic contact dermatitis AD Atopic dermatitis ADA Americans with Disabilities Act AE Atopic eczema AEC Absolute eosinophil count AERD Aspirin exacerbated respiratory disease AFP Antifreeze protein AGA Anti-gliadin antibodies AI Adequate intake ALA Alimentary toxic aleukia ALDH Aldehyde dehydrogenase ALS Advanced Life Support ALSPAC Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children AMDR Acceptable Macronutrient Distribution Ranges AMP Almond major protein APC Antigen-presenting cell APT Atopy patch test ASCA Anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae ASHMI Anti-asthma Herbal Medicine Intervention ASP Amnesic shellfish poisoning AZA Azaspiracid AZP Azaspiracid shellfish poisoning BAL Bronchoalveolar lavage BAT Basophil activation test BCR B-cell receptor BER Bioenergy regulatory BFD Bioelectric functions diagnosis BHA Butylated hydroxyanisole BHR Basophil histamine release BHT Butylated hydroxytoluene BLG β-lactoglobulin BMI Body mass index BN Brown–Norway BP Blood pressure BPRS Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale BTX Brevetoxins CAS Chemical Abstract Society CCD CCP CDC CFA CFR CGRP CIU CIUA CLA CLSI CM CMA CMF CMP CMV CNS COX CRH CRP CRS CSPI CSR CTL CTX CU DAO DBPC DBPCFC DC DHA DMARD DoH DRI DSP DTH DTT DTX EAR EAV ECP EDN EDS Cross-reactive carbohydrate determinants Cyclic citrullinated peptide Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Chemotactic factor of anaphylaxis Code of Federal Regulations Calcitonin gene-related peptide Chronic idiopathic urticaria Chronic idiopathic urticaria/angioedema Cutaneous lymphocyte-associated antigen Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute Cow’s milk Cow’s milk allergy Cow’s milk formula Cow’s milk protein Cucumber mosaic virus Central nervous system Cyclo-oxygense Corticotropin-releasing hormone C-reactive protein Chinese restaurant syndrome Center for Science in the Public Interest Class-switch recombination Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte Ciguatoxins Cholinergic urticaria Diamine oxidase Double-blind, placebo-controlled Double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenge Dendritic cell Docosahexaenoic acid Disease modifying anti-rheumatic agent Department of Health Dietary reference intakes Diarrhetic shellfish poisoning Delayed-type hypersensitivity Dithiothreitol Dinophysistoxins Estimate average requirement Electroacupuncture according to Voll Eosinophil cationic protein Eosinophil-derived neurotoxin Electrodermal screening xiii xiv Abbreviations EE EEG EER EFA EFSA EGID EIA ELISA EMA EMT EoE EoG EoP EPA EPO EPSPS Eosinophilic esophagitis Electroencephalogram Estimated energy requirement Essential fatty acid European Food Safety Authority Eosinophil-associated gastrointestinal disorders Enzyme immunoassay Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays Anti-endomysial Emergency Medical Technical Eosinophilic esophagitis Eosinophilic gastroenteritis Eosinophilic proctocolitis Eicosapentaneoic acid Eosinophilic peroxidase Enzyme 5-enolpyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase EPX Eosinophil protein X ESR Erythrocyte sedimentation rate FAAN Food Allergy & Anaphylaxis Network FAE Follicle-associated epithelium FAFD Food-additive-free diet FALCPA Food Allergen Labeling and Consumer Protection Act FAO Food and Agricultural Organization FASEB Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology FDA Food and Drug Administration FDDPU Food-dependent delayed pressure urticaria FDEIA Food-dependent exercise-induced anaphylaxis FEC Food-and-exercise challenge FEIA Fluorescent-enzyme immunoassay FFQs Food Frequency Questionnaires FFSPTs Fresh food skin prick tests FPIES Food protein-induced enterocolitis syndrome FSIS Food Safety Inspection Service GALT Gut-associated lymphoid tissue GBM Glomerular basement membrane GER Gastroesophageal reflux GERD Gastroesophageal reflux disease GFD Gluten-free diet GH Growth hormone GHRH Growth hormone releasing hormone GI Gastrointestinal GINI German Infant Nutritional Interventional GOX Glyphosate oxidoreductase GrA Granzymes A GRAS Generally recognized as safe GrB Granzymes B GRS Generally regarded as safe GSH Glutathione GVHD Graft-versus-host disease HACCP Hazard analysis and critical control point HAQ Health Assessment Questionnaire HBGF HCN HE HEL HEV HKE HKL HKLM HLA HMW HNL HPF HPLC HPP HRFs HRP HSP HVP IAAs ICD IDECs IEC IEI IgA IgE IgG IgM ISB ISS IST ITAM ITIM IUIS JECFA KA KGF KLH LA LCPUFA LCs LFI LGG LLDC LMW LOAELs LOX LP LPL LPS LRTIs LSD LT LTP MALDI Heparin-binding growth factors Hydrogen cyanide Hen’s egg Hen’s egg lysozyme High endothelial venules Heat-killed Esherichia coli Heat-killed Listeria monocytogene Heat-killed Listeria monocytogenes Human leukocyte antigen High molecular weight Human neutrophil lipocalin High-powered field High-performance liquid chromatography Hydrolyzed plant protein Histamine releasing factors Horseradish peroxidase Hydrolyzed soy protein Hydrolyzed vegetable protein Indispensable amino acids Irritant contact dermatitis Inflammatory dendritic epidermal cells Intestinal epithelial cells Idiopathic environmental intolerances Immunoglobulin A Immunoglobulin E Immunoglobulin G Immunoglobulin M Isosulfan blue Immunostimulatory sequences Intradermal skin test Immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motif Immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibitory motif International Union of Immunological Societies Expert Committee on Food Additives Kainic acid Keratinocyte growth factor Key-hole limpet hemocyanin Linoleic acid Long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids Langerhans cells Lateral flow immunochromatographic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG Langerhans-like dendritic cell Low molecular weight Lowest observed adverse effect level Lipoxygenase Lamina propria LP lymphocytes Lipopolysaccharide Lower respiratory tract infections Lysergic acid diethylamide Leukotrienes Lipid-transfer protein Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization Abbreviations xv MALT MAO MAPK MAS MBP MC MCS MED MFA MHC MIP MMP MMPI MMR MPO MSG MTX MUFA MWL NADPH NASN NCHS NDGA NIAID NIOSHA NK NLEA NOEL NPA NPIFR NPV NSAID NSBR NSP OAS ODN OFC OPRA OT OVA PAF PAMP PBB PBMC PBT PCB PEF PEFR PFS PFT PHA PK PKC Mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue Monoamine oxidase Mitogen-activated protein kinase Multicenter Allergy Study Major basic protein Mast cell Multiple chemical sensitivity Minimal eliciting dose Multiple food allergies Major histocompatibility complex Macrophage inflammatory protein-1 Matrix metalloproteinase Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory Measles–mumps–rubella Myeloperoxidase Monosodium glutamate Maitotoxins Monounsaturated fatty acids Mushroom worker’s lung Nicotinamide dinucleotide phosphate National Association of School Nurses National Center for Health Statistics Nordihydroguaiaretic acid National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Natural killer National Labeling and Education Act No observable effect level Negative predictive accuracy Nasal peak inspiratory flow Negative predictive values Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs Non-specific bronchial responsiveness Neurotoxic shellfish poisoning Oral allergy syndrome Oligodeoxynucleotides Oral food challenge Occupational Physicians Reporting Activity Oral tolerance Ovalbumin Platelet-activating factor Pathogen-associated molecular pattern Polybrominated biphenyls Peripheral blood mononuclear cell Peripheral blood T-cells Polychlorinated biphenyls Peak expiratory flow Peak expiratory flow rate Pollen–food syndrome Pulmonary function testing Phytohemagglutinin Prausnitz-Küstner Protein kinase C PMN PPA PPI PPs PPT PPV PR PSP PST PTX PUFA PUVA RADS RAST RBA RBL RDA RDBPC RF RIA ROS SBPC SC SCF SCIT SCN SFAP SGF SHM SIF SIgA SIgM SIT SLIT SPECT SPT STX SVR TCM TCR TLP TLR TNF TPA TSA TTG TTX UGI UL USDA VAR VIP WHO YTX Polymorphonuclear leukocytes Positive predictive accuracy Protein phosphatase inhibition Peyer’s patches PP-derived T-cells Positive predictive value Pathogenesis-related Paralytic shellfish poisoning Prick skin test Pectenotoxins Polyunsaturated fatty acids Psoralen ⫹ ultraviolet A radiation Reactive airways dysfunction syndrome Radioallergosorbent test Receptor-binding assay Basophilic leukemia Recommended dietary allowances Randomized double–blind, placebo-controlled Rheumatoid factor Radioimmunoassay Reactive oxygen species Single-blinded placebo-controlled Secretory component Stem cell factor Subcutaneous immunotherapy Soybean cyst nematode School Food Allergy Program Simulated gastric fluid Somatic hyper mutation Simulated intestinal fluid Secretory IgA Secretory IgM Specific immunotherapy Sublingual immunotherapy Single photon emission computed tomography Skin prick test Saxitoxins Sequential vascular response Traditional Chinese medicine T-cell receptor Thaumatin-like protein Toll-like receptor Tumor necrosis factor Tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate Transportation Security Administration Tissue transglutaminase Tetrodotoxin Upper GI Upper intake level United States Department of Agriculture Voice-activated audiotape recording Vasoactive intestinal peptide World Health Organization Yessotoxin This page intentionally left blank PA RT 1 Adverse Reactions to Food Antigens: Basic Science Food Allergy: Adverse Reactions to Foods and Food Additives, 4th edition Edited by Dean D.

Pediatrics 1998;101:e8. 50 Sicherer SH, Sampson HA. Role of food allergens. In: Leung DY, Greaves MW (eds.) Allergic Skin Disease: A Multidisciplinary 61 Osborn DA, Sinn J. Soy formula for the prevention of allergy and food intolerance in infants. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2006;3:CD003741. 62 Fergusson DM, Horwood LJ, Shannon FT. Early solid feeding and recurrent childhood eczema: a 10-year longitudinal study. Pediatrics 1990;86:541–6. 63 Kajosaari M. Atopy prophylaxis in high-risk infants: prospective 5-year follow-up study of children with six months exclusive breastfeeding and solid food elimination. Adv Exp Med Biol 1991;310:453–8. 64 Zutavern A, Brockow I, Schaaf B, et al. Timing of solid food introduction in relation to atopic dermatitis and atopic sensitization: results from a prospective birth cohort study.

Challenge confirmation of late-onset reactions to extensively hydrolyzed formulas 74 Järvinen K-M, Laine S, Suomalainen H. Defective tumour necrosis factor-alpha production in mother’s milk is related to cow’s milk allergy in suckling infants. Clin Exp Allergy 2000;30:637–43. 75 Lucas A, St James-Roberts I. Crying, fussing and colic behaviour in breast- and bottle-fed infants. Early Hum Dev 1998;53:9–18. 76 Axelsson I, Jakobsson I, Lindberg T, Benediktsson B. Bovine betalactoglobulin in the human milk. A longitudinal study during the whole lactation period. Acta Paediatr Scand 1986;75:702–7. 77 Paganelli R, Atherton DJ, Levinsky RJ. Differences between normal and milk allergic subjects in their immune responses after milk ingestion. Arch Dis Child 1983;58:201–6. 180 Chapter 14 78 Savino F, Cresi F, Pautasso S, et al. Intestinal microflora in breastfed colicky and non-colicky infants. Acta Paediatr 2004;93:825–9. 79 Savino F, Bailo E, Oggero R, et al.


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The New Elite: Inside the Minds of the Truly Wealthy by Dr. Jim Taylor

British Empire, business cycle, call centre, dark matter, Donald Trump, estate planning, full employment, glass ceiling, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Maui Hawaii, McMansion, means of production, passive income, performance metric, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, Ronald Reagan, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, Thorstein Veblen, trickle-down economics, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

Martin Seligman, Learned Optimism (New York: Pocket Books, 1990). 2. For example, Carl R. Anderson, ‘‘Locus of Control, Coping Behaviors, and Performance in a Stress Setting: A Longitudinal Study,’’ Journal of Applied Psychology 62 (1977): 446–451. 3. Richard Wiseman, The Luck Factor (New York: Hyperion, 2003). 4. Philip Brickman, Dan Coates, and Ronnie Janoff-Bulman, ‘‘Lottery Winners and Accident Victims: Is Happiness Relative?’’ Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 36 (1978): 917–927. 5. Edward Diener, Jeff Horzwitz, and Robert Emmons, ‘‘Happiness of the Very Wealthy’’, Social Indicators Research 16 (1985): 263– 274. 6. Jonathan Gardner and Andrew Oswald, ‘‘Does Money Buy Happiness? A Longitudinal Study Using Data on Windfalls.’’ Presented at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002. 72 The New Elite 7. Quoted in Steve Maich, ‘‘Money Really Can Buy Happiness, Study Shows,’’ Maclean’s, February 13, 2006.


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The Happiness Curve: Why Life Gets Better After 50 by Jonathan Rauch

endowment effect, experimental subject, Google bus, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, income per capita, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Richard Thaler, science of happiness, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, upwardly mobile, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

In their landmark 2008 paper (which I discussed in the previous chapter), Blanchflower and Oswald find that going from age twenty to age forty-five decreases life satisfaction by about a third as much as becoming unemployed—and unemployment is one of the worst things that commonly happen to people. “That is suggestive of a large effect on wellbeing,” they write. In another paper, which looks at more than two dozen European countries, they find that being middle-aged nearly doubles a person’s risk of using antidepressants, after controlling for other variables. Most recently, in their longitudinal study (also discussed in the previous chapter) of how individuals experience the effects of age on happiness over time, Oswald, Nick Powdthavee, and Terence Cheng find that the effect of going from about age twenty to about age forty-five is comparable “to a substantial percentage of the effect on wellbeing of major events such as divorce or unemployment.” That kind of magnitude is no guarantee that you or any particular person will feel the undertow, or will have trouble with it if you do feel it.

Comparing the effects on life satisfaction of aging and education, Sutin writes with Antonio Terracciano, Yuri Milaneschi, Yang An, Luigi Ferruci, and Alan B. Zonderman, in “The Effect of Birth Cohort on Wellbeing: The Legacy of Economic Hard Times,” in Psychological Science 24:3 (2013). Gana’s findings on aging and life satisfaction in France are in “Does Life Satisfaction Change in Old Age? Results from an 8-Year Longitudinal Study,” coauthored with Nathalie Bailly, Yaël Saada, Michèle Joulain, and Daniel Alaphilippe, in The Journals of Gerontology, Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 68:4 (2013). The remark by Carstensen et al. that emotional life may not peak until well into the seventh decade is from “Emotional Experience Improves with Age: Evidence Based on over Ten Years of Experience Sampling,” coauthored with Susan Scheibe, Hal Ersner-Hershfield, Kathryn P.


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Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead by Sheryl Sandberg

affirmative action, business process, Cass Sunstein, constrained optimization, experimental economics, fear of failure, gender pay gap, glass ceiling, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, old-boy network, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, social graph, women in the workforce, young professional

Jessica Valenti, “Sad White Babies with Mean Feminist Mommies,” Jessica Valenti blog, June 19, 2012, http://​jessi​cavalenti.​tumblr.​com/​post/​254655​02300/​sad-​white-​babies-​with-​mean-​feminist-​mommies-​the. 4. IT’S A JUNGLE GYM, NOT A LADDER 1. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Number of Jobs Held, Labor Market Activity, and Earnings Growth Among the Youngest Baby Boomers: Results from a Longitudinal Study (July 2012), http://​www.​bls.​gov/​news.​release/​pdf/​nlsoy.​pdf. This report found that the average person born between 1957 and 1964 had 11.3 jobs between the ages of eighteen and forty-six, with almost half of these jobs being held between the ages of eighteen and twenty-four. 2. For reviews of the research on women tending to be more risk averse than men, see Marianne Bertrand, “New Perspectives on Gender,” in Handbook of Labor Economics, vol. 4B, ed.

Pamela Stone, Opting Out? Why Women Really Quit Careers and Head Home (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2007), 62. 13. Stewart, “A C.E.O.’s Support System.” 14. For a thorough review, see Michael E. Lamb, The Role of the Father in Child Development (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2010); and Anna Sarkadi et al., “Fathers’ Involvement and Children’s Developmental Outcomes: A Systematic Review of Longitudinal Studies,” Acta Paediatrica 97, no. 2 (2008): 153–58. 15. Elisabeth Duursma, Barbara Alexander Pan, and Helen Raikes, “Predictors and Outcomes of Low-Income Fathers’ Reading with Their Toddlers,” Early Childhood Research Quarterly 23, no. 3 (2008): 351–65; Joseph H. Pleck and Brian P. Masciadrelli, “Paternal Involvement in U.S. Residential Fathers: Levels, Sources, and Consequences,” in The Role of the Father in Child Development, ed.


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Shorter by Alex Soojung-Kim Pang

8-hour work day, airport security, Albert Einstein, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, centre right, cloud computing, colonial rule, disruptive innovation, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, game design, gig economy, Henri Poincaré, IKEA effect, iterative process, job automation, job satisfaction, job-hopping, Johannes Kepler, Kickstarter, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, means of production, neurotypical, performance metric, race to the bottom, remote working, Second Machine Age, side project, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, women in the workforce, young professional, zero-sum game

Even some retirees find that not working has its downsides: they miss the absence of a routine, regular contact with people, and the sense of purpose that work can bring. But is there a linear relationship between your sense of meaningfulness and well-being, and your working hours? Fortunately, a group at Cambridge University has been studying exactly this question. Working with data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, they looked at the relationship between hours of employment and levels of happiness and well-being. Since the study had over 70,000 people and extended over ten years, some people were working full-time, some part-time, some were employed throughout, and many people got or lost jobs during the study. What the researchers found was that happiness and well-being peak at around eight hours of employment per week and do not rise higher when people add more hours to their workweek.

On the costs of overwork for individuals and companies, see John Pencavel, “The Productivity of Working Hours,” Economic Journal 125, no. 589 (December 2015): 2052–2076, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12166; Jeffrey Pfeffer, Dying for a Paycheck: How Modern Management Harms Employee Health and Company Performance—and What We Can Do About It (New York: Harper Business, 2018). Statistics on overwork are from the OECD Better Life Index, 2019, http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/topics/work-life-balance/. On women and stress in part-time work, see Tarani Chandola et al., “Are Flexible Work Arrangements Associated with Lower Levels of Chronic Stress–Related Biomarkers? A Study of 6025 Employees in the UK Household Longitudinal Study,” Sociology 53, no. 4 (August 2019): 779–799, https://doi.org/10.1177/0038038519826014. On labor force participation rates of mothers, see “Labor Force Participation: What Has Happened Since the Peak?” Monthly Labor Review (September 2016), figure 8, www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/article/pdf/labor-force-participation-what-has-happened-since-the-peak.pdf. CHAPTER 1 Sowol-Ro, Seoul, South Korea.


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The Book of Woe: The DSM and the Unmaking of Psychiatry by Gary Greenberg

addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, back-to-the-land, David Brooks, impulse control, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Snow's cholera map, Kickstarter, late capitalism, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, McMansion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, phenotype, placebo effect, random walk, selection bias, statistical model, theory of mind, Winter of Discontent

The Criterion B symptoms that remained after eliminating the ones that overlapped with ADHD—“grandiosity, decreased need for sleep, flight of ideas (i.e., a free-flowing stream of consciousness) and excessive involvement in pleasurable activities that have a high potential for painful consequences”—weren’t these really just a working definition of childhood at its most exuberant? And finally, they cited longitudinal studies, which showed that plenty of “bad ADHD” kids indeed went on to develop various mental disorders, but bipolar was not among them—a finding hard to reconcile with the presumption that BD is a lifelong illness. I’ll spare you the ensuing back-and-forth, which is as bitter and rancorous, and as impenetrable, as most academic controversies, and which continues more than fifteen years later. It’s not that it hasn’t been entertaining, at least at points, as when Biederman was moved to liken his critics to people who insist the earth is flat and circled by the sun, and his own discovery to that of Edward Jenner, whose “smallpox vaccine was ridiculed10 when initially proposed”—suggestive comparisons for a man studying a disorder with grandiosity among its symptoms.

“The truth was that many of these kids would meet criteria for ODD,” said Shaffer. Without changing the criteria, let alone introducing a new diagnosis, they could be assigned to this category. But there was a problem. “ODD had become tarnished,” says Shaffer, by its association with two other diagnoses: Conduct Disorder, the label given to childhood bullies and thugs, and Antisocial Personality Disorder, or what is often called sociopathy. Longitudinal studies did not back up the hunch that ODD belonged in the same neighborhood as these diagnoses; kids with ODD did not go on to become thieves, rapists, or hedge fund managers in greater numbers than other kids. But the bad reputation was impossible to shed, or so Shaffer and his colleagues thought. “So we had this problem: the criteria of ODD would fit most of the kids who were being diagnosed as bipolar, but we couldn’t call it ODD because it was a stigmatized name,” he explained.

Wing, Lorna. “Asperger’s Syndrome: A Clinical Account.” Psychological Medicine 11, no. 1 (1981): 115–29. Wing, Lorna. “Reflections on Opening Pandora’s Box.” Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders 35, no. 2 (April 2005): 197–203. Woods, Scott W., Jean Addington, and Kristin S. Cadenhead. “Validity of the Prodromal Risk Syndrome for First Psychosis: Findings from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study.” Schizophrenia Bulletin 35, no. 5 (2009): 894–908. Wozniak, Janet, Joseph Biederman, Kathleen Kiely, J. Stuart Ablon, Stephen V. Faraone, Elizabeth Mundy, and Douglas Mennin. “Mania-Like Symptoms Suggestive of Childhood-Onset Bipolar Disorder in Clinically Referred Children.” Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry 34, no. 7 (July 1995): 867–76. Yeargin-Alsopp, Marshalyn, Catherine Rice, Tanya Karapurkar, Nancy Doernberg, Colleen Boyle, and Catherine Murphy.


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Flow by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi

Albert Einstein, Bonfire of the Vanities, centralized clearinghouse, Charles Lindbergh, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, double helix, fear of failure, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Necker cube, pattern recognition, place-making, Ralph Waldo Emerson, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Vilfredo Pareto

All of these coping styles—hardiness, mature defenses, and transformational coping—share many characteristics with the autotelic personality trait described in this volume. Courage. That people consider courage the foremost reason for admiring others emerged from the data of my three-generation family study when Bert Lyons analyzed it for his Ph.D. dissertation (1988). Dissipative structures. For the meaning of this term in the natural sciences see Prigogine (1980). Transformational skills in adolescence. One longitudinal study conducted with the ESM (Freeman, Larson, & Csikszentmihalyi 1986) suggests that older teenagers have just as many negative experiences with family, with friends, and alone as younger teenagers do, but that they interpret them more leniently—that is, the conflicts that at 13 years of age seemed tragic at 17 are seen to be perfectly manageable. Unselfconscious self-assurance. For the development of this concept see Logan (1985, 1988).

., & Csikszentmihalyi, I. S., eds. 1988. Optimal experience: Psychological studies of flow in consciousness. New York: Cambridge University Press. Csikszentmihalyi, M., & Getzels, J. W. 1989. Creativity and problem finding. In F. H. Farley & R. W. Neperud, eds., The foundations of aesthetics (pp. 91–116). New York: Praeger. Csikszentmihalyi, M., Getzels, J. W., & Kahn, S. 1984. Talent and achievement: A longitudinal study of artists. A report to the Spencer Foundation and to the MacArthur Foundation. Chicago: University of Chicago. Csikszentmihalyi, M., & Graef, R. 1979. Flow and the quality of experience in everyday life. Unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago. ——. 1980. The experience of freedom in daily life. American Journal of Community Psychology 8:401–14. Csikszentmihalyi, M., & Kubey, R. 1981.

., Studies in social identity (pp. 254–73). New York: Praeger. ——. 1984. The social construction of narrative accounts. In K. Gergen & M. Gergen, eds., Historical social psychology (pp. 173–89). Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum. Getzels, J. W., & Csikszentmihalyi, M. 1965. Creative thinking in art students: The process of discovery. HEW Cooperative Research Report S-080, University of Chicago. ——. 1976. The creative vision: A longitudinal study of problem finding in art. New York: Wiley Interscience. Gilpin, L. 1948. Temples in Yucatan. New York: Hastings House. Gladwin, T. 1970. East is a big bird: Navigation and logic on Puluat atoll. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Glick, P. G. 1979. Children of divorced parents in demographic perspective. Journal of Social Issues 35:170–82. Goertzel, V., & Goertzel, M. G. 1962. Cradles of eminence.


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Whiteshift: Populism, Immigration and the Future of White Majorities by Eric Kaufmann

4chan, affirmative action, Amazon Mechanical Turk, anti-communist, anti-globalists, augmented reality, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, British Empire, centre right, Chelsea Manning, cognitive dissonance, complexity theory, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Haight Ashbury, illegal immigration, immigration reform, imperial preference, income inequality, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, liberal capitalism, longitudinal study, Lyft, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral panic, Nate Silver, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, open borders, phenotype, postnationalism / post nation state, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Republic of Letters, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steven Pinker, the built environment, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transcontinental railway, twin studies, uber lyft, upwardly mobile, urban sprawl, Washington Consensus, white flight, working-age population, World Values Survey, young professional

The effects were especially consistent for whites in diverse areas, whereas for minorities some tests showed their trust to be higher in diverse neighbourhoods.59 Many things can affect trust in neighbours, and unmeasured factors such as traffic may be related to ethnic diversity. Any snapshot of variation in diversity and trust across places at one point in time can’t rule out unmeasured factors. However, a number of longitudinal studies have now examined what happens when places become more diverse. This offers a rigorous test of the diversity–solidarity hypothesis. By focusing on what happens to people over time, the researcher can screen out the many confounding influences that could be associated with both differences of local diversity and individual trust at any one time point. In Denmark, one longitudinal study found that a shift from 0 to 30 per cent minority in an area between 1980 and 2009, the maximum recorded, corresponds to a .23 loss of trust on a scale running from 1 – ‘people can be trusted’ – to 0 – ‘you can’t be too careful’.60 In Britain, two social researchers, James Laurence and Lee Bentley, using the BHPS, the precursor to Understanding Society, tracked over 4,000 individuals over an eighteen-year period from 1991 to 2009.

Bolt, R. van Kempen and M. van Ham, ‘Minority ethnic groups in the Dutch housing market: Spatial segregation, relocation dynamics and housing policy’, Urban Studies 45:7 (2008), 1359–84. 19. C. B. Ong, ‘Tipping points? Ethnic composition change in Dutch big city neighbourhoods’, Urban Studies 54:4 (2017), 1016–37. 20. ONS LS, London, 2011: Office of National Statistics. The permission of the Office of National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: RES-348-25-0004). The author alone is responsible for the interpretation of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen’s Printer for Scotland. 21. M.


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Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End by Atul Gawande

Atul Gawande, Checklist Manifesto, clean water, delayed gratification, different worldview, longitudinal study, Skype, stem cell

Yemm, Color Atlas and Text of Dental Care of the Elderly (Mosby-Wolfe, 1995), pp. 49–50. By the age of sixty: J. J. Warren et al., “Tooth Loss in the Very Old: 13-15-Year Incidence among Elderly Iowans,” Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology 30 (2002): 29–37. Under a microscope: A. Hak et al., “Progression of Aortic Calcification Is Associated with Metacarpal Bone Loss during Menopause: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study,” Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology 20 (2000): 1926–31. Research has found that loss of bone density: H. Yoon et al., “Calcium Begets Calcium: Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Asymptomatic Subjects,” Radiology 224 (2002): 236–41; Hak et al., “Progression of Aortic Calcification.” more than half of us: N. K. Wenger, “Cardiovascular Disease,” in Geriatric Medicine, ed.

Dekaban, “Changes in Brain Weights During the Span of Human Life: Relation of Brain Weights to Body Heights and Body Weights,” Annals of Neurology 4 (1978): 355; R. Peters, “Ageing and the Brain,” Postgraduate Medical Journal 82 (2006): 84–85; G. I. M. Craik and E. Bialystok, “Cognition Through the Lifespan: Mechanisms of Change,” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 10 (2006): 132; R. S. N. Liu et al., “A Longitudinal Study of Brain Morphometrics Using Quantitative Magentic Resonance Imaging and Difference Image Analysis,” NeuroImage 20 (2003): 26; T. A. Salthouse, “Aging and Measures of Processing Speed,” Biological Psychology 54 (2000): 37; D. A. Evans et al., “Prevalence of Alzheimer’s Disease in a Community Population of Older Persons,” JAMA 262 (1989): 2251. Why we age: R. E. Ricklefs, “Evolutionary Theories of Aging: Confirmation of a Fundamental Prediction, with Implications for the Genetic Basis and Evolution of Life Span,” American Naturalist 152 (1998): 24–44; R.


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The Vanishing Middle Class: Prejudice and Power in a Dual Economy by Peter Temin

"Robert Solow", 2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Legislative Exchange Council, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, anti-communist, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, clean water, corporate raider, Corrections Corporation of America, crack epidemic, deindustrialization, desegregation, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Ferguson, Missouri, financial innovation, financial intermediation, floating exchange rates, full employment, income inequality, intangible asset, invisible hand, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, mandatory minimum, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, mass incarceration, means of production, mortgage debt, Network effects, New Urbanism, Nixon shock, obamacare, offshore financial centre, oil shock, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Powell Memorandum, price stability, race to the bottom, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, the scientific method, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, white flight, working poor

Heckman, Pinto, and Savelyev 2013, 3–5; Reardon, Waldfogel, and Bassok 2016. 24. Schorr 1989; Kirp 2013; Jackson, Johnson, and Persico 2016. Connecticut may be about to follow New Jersey as courts try to adjust school spending to student needs (Harris 2016; Zernike 2016c). 25. Barnett et al. 2013. 26. Editorial Board 2016. 27. Delpit 2012. 28. Kirp 2013. 29. Goleman 1995, 2006; Harris 2016. 30. Schorr 1989, 191. 31. Consortium for Longitudinal Studies 1983; Garces, Thomas, and Currie 2002; Currie and Neidell 2007; Ludwig and Miller 2007; Heckman, Pinto, and Salvelyev 2013. 32. Currie and Thomas 2000. 33. Bush 2007; Head Start 2015. 34. Macur 2016; Dasgupta 2007, 31. 35. Reardon 2012; Porter 2015. 36. Abascal and Baldassarri 2015. 37. Lewis 2010; Levine et al. 2014. 11 American Cities Milliken v. Bradley fit in with other government decisions that supported a massive movement of the white population into suburbs in the decades following 1974.

New York Times, August 8. Confessore, Nicholas. 2015. “A Wealthy Governor and His Friends Are Remaking Illinois.” New York Times, November 29. Confessore, Nicholas. 2016. “For Whites Sensing Decline, Trump Unleashes Words of Resistance.” New York Times, July 13. Congressional Budget Office. 2014. “The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2011.” Washington, DC, November. Consortium for Longitudinal Studies. 1983. As the Twig is Bent ... Lasting Effects of Preschool Programs. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. 2015. “Student Loan Servicing.” September. http://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201509_cfpb_student-loan-servicing-report.pdf. Accessed September 22, 2016. Corkery, Michael. 2016. “Regulators Fear $1 Billion Cleanup Bill.” New York Times, June 6.


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The Estrogen Fix: The Breakthrough Guide to Being Healthy, Energized, and Hormonally Balanced by Mache Seibel

longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), women in the workforce, working poor, Yogi Berra

MS: If a woman is feeling sad or blue for more than 2 weeks, then it’s a good idea for her to see her doctor or health-care provider? PM: It’s absolutely worthwhile to talk to one’s doctor about feelings of sadness and anxiety. It’s important to know that there’s been a shift in our understanding of menopausal transition as a time when women are at risk for mental health issues even in the absence of any prior history of having these issues. For example, there are now multiple longitudinal studies that follow women for years as they transition from the premenopausal stage to the perimenopausal stage, and then a few studies on to the postmenopausal stage. The findings show that women, as they transition into menopause, are at an increased risk for both increases in depressive symptoms that are still within the normal range, but higher than what they had when premenopausal, and they are also at higher risk for clinical depression.

Kronenberg, “Hot Flashes: Epidemiology and Physiology,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 592 (1990): 123—133. 23R. A. Greene et al., “Comparison between Regional Cerebral Blood Flow in Hypoestrogenic Women and Patients with Alzheimer’s Disease—A Descriptive Study,” Neurobiology of Aging 10, no. 4 (1998): S180. 24Ibid. 25R. Peters, “Ageing and the Brain,” Postgraduate Medical Journal 82, no. 964 (February 2006): 84–88. 26R. I. Scahill et al., “A Longitudinal Study of Brain Volume Changes in Normal Aging Using Serial Registered Magnetic Resonance Imaging,” Archives of Neurology 60, no. 7 (July 2003): 989–94. 27J. Compton, T. van Amelsvoort, and D. Murphy, “HRT and Its Effect on Normal Ageing of the Brain and Dementia,” British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 52, no. 6 (December 2001): 647–53. 28D. G. Murphy et al., “Sex Differences in Human Brain Morphometry and Metabolism: An In Vivo Quantitative Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Positron Emission Tomography Study on the Effect of Aging,” Archives of General Psychiatry 53, no. 7 (July 1996): 585–94. 29Compton, van Amelsvoort, and Murphy, “HRT and Its Effect,” 647–53. 30Murphy et al., “Sex Differences in Human Brain Morphometry,” 585–94. 31R.


Cognitive Gadgets: The Cultural Evolution of Thinking by Cecilia Heyes

Asperger Syndrome, complexity theory, epigenetics, intermodal, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, phenotype, social intelligence, the built environment, theory of mind, twin studies

Although it is not clear why this transcript-based evidence has been largely ignored by both parties to the debate on the evolution of language, two recent developments may lend it greater prominence. The first is a trend towards observational and experimental studies demonstrating that negative input is not merely available but has a significant impact on language learning. For example, in a longitudinal study of mothers and their children, Taumoepeau (2016) found evidence that a mother’s spontaneous tendency to “expand” her child’s utterances—to repeat the meaning while supplying missing syntactic information—contributed to vocabulary learning. Leading the second development, Dabrowska (2012) has found that native English speakers with less than eleven years of formal education, and those with at least seventeen years of formal education, do not have the same grammatical knowledge.

Philosophy of Science, 72(5), 1013–1025. Olsson, A., and Phelps, E. A. (2007). Social learning of fear. Nature Neuroscience, 10, 1095–1102. Onishi, K. H., and Baillargeon, R. (2005). Do 15-month-old infants understand false beliefs? Science, 308(5719), 255–258. Oostenbroek, J., Suddendorf, T., Nielsen, M., Redshaw, J., Kennedy-Costantini, S., Davis, J., … and Slaughter, V. (2016). Comprehensive longitudinal study challenges the existence of neonatal imitation in humans. Current Biology, 26(10), 1334–1338. Osada, T. (1992). A Reference Grammar of Mundari. Institute for the Study of Languages and Cultures of Asia and Africa, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. O’Toole, R., and Dubin, R. (1968). Baby feeding and body sway: An experiment in George Herbert Mead’s “Taking the role of the other.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 10, 59–65.


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The Case Against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money by Bryan Caplan

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, assortative mating, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, deliberate practice, deskilling, disruptive innovation, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, experimental subject, fear of failure, Flynn Effect, future of work, George Akerlof, ghettoisation, hive mind, job satisfaction, Kenneth Arrow, Khan Academy, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, market bubble, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Peter Thiel, price discrimination, profit maximization, publication bias, risk tolerance, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, school choice, selection bias, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, trickle-down economics, twin studies, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, yield curve, zero-sum game

“Human Mate Selection: Opposites Are Sometimes Said to Attract, but in Fact We Are Likely to Marry Someone Who Is Similar to Us in Almost Every Variable.” American Scientist 73 (1): 47–51. Callahan, Clara, Mohammadreza Hojat, Jon Veloski, James Erdmann, and Joseph Gonnella. 2010. “The Predictive Validity of Three Versions of the MCAT in Relation to Performance in Medical School, Residency, and Licensing Examinations: A Longitudinal Study of 36 Classes of Jefferson Medical College.” Academic Medicine 85 (6): 980–87. Cameron, Stephen, and James Heckman. 1999. “Can Tuition Policy Combat Rising Inequality?” In Financing College Tuition: Government Policies and Educational Priorities, edited by Marvin Kosters, 76–124. Washington, DC: AEI. Campos, Paul. 2012. Don’t Go to Law School (Unless): A Law Professor’s Inside Guide to Maximizing Opportunity and Minimizing Risk.

Working Paper, Harvard University. Accessed November 15, 2015. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.147.6141&rep=rep1&type=pdf. Groves, Melissa. 2005. “How Important Is Your Personality? Labor Market Returns to Personality for Women in the US and UK.” Journal of Economic Psychology 26 (6): 827–41. Gruber-Baldini, Ann, K. Warner, and Sherry Willis. 1995. “Similarity in Married Couples: A Longitudinal Study of Mental Abilities and Rigidity-Flexibility.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 69 (1): 191–203. Gyourko, Joseph, and Joseph Tracy. 1988. “An Analysis of Public and Private Sector Wages Allowing for Endogenous Choices of Both Government and Union Status.” Journal of Labor Economics 6 (2): 229–53. Hambrick, David, Frederick Oswald, Erik Altmann, Elizabeth Meinz, Fernand Gobet, and Guillermo Campitelli. 2014.

Lefgren, Lars, and Frank McIntyre. 2006. “The Relationship between Women’s Education and Marriage Outcomes.” Journal of Labor Economics 24 (4): 787–830. Lehman, Darrin, Richard Lempert, and Richard Nisbett. 1988. “The Effects of Graduate Training on Reasoning: Formal Discipline and Thinking about Everyday-Life Events.” American Psychologist 43 (6): 431–42. Lehman, Darrin, and Richard Nisbett. 1990. “A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Undergraduate Training on Reasoning.” Developmental Psychology 26 (6): 952–60. Leigh, Paul. 1983. “Direct and Indirect Effects of Education on Health.” Social Science and Medicine 17 (4): 227–34. Leonhardt, David. 2011. “Even for Cashiers, College Pays Off.” New York Times. June 25. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/sunday-review/26leonhardt.html?_r=0. Leping, Kristjan-Olari. 2007.


pages: 300 words: 65,976

The Gospel of Food: Everything You Think You Know About Food Is Wrong by Barry Glassner

Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Gary Taubes, haute cuisine, income inequality, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, placebo effect, profit motive, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Saturday Night Live, stem cell, twin studies, urban sprawl, working poor

., “Income Distribution and Mortality,” “Income Distribution, Socioeconomic Status, and Self-Rated Health,” “(Dis)respect and Black Mortality,” and “Women’s Status and the Health of Women and Men,” pp. 60–68, 137–47, 465–73, and 474–91 in I. Kawachi, B. Kennedy, and R. Wilkinson, eds., The Society and Population Health Reader (New York: New Press, 1999). See also Edmond Shenassa, “Society, Physical Health, and Modern Epidemiology,” Epidemiology 12 (2001): 467–70. For additional evidence, see Paula M. Lantz, John W. Lynch, et al., “Socioeconomic Disparities in Health Change in a Longitudinal Study of U.S. Adults,” Social Science and Medicine 53 (2001): 29–40; Ana Diez Roux, “Neighborhood of Residence and Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease,” New England Journal of Medicine 345 (2001): 99–106; Redford Williams, John Barefoot, and Neil Schneiderman, “Psychosocial Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease,” Journal of the American Medical Association 290 (2003): 2190–92. 50. J. Fraser Mustard and John Frank, “Determinants of Health from a Historical Perspective,” Daedalus 123 (1994): 1–19; Richard Wilkinson, Notes 239 “Health Inequalities,” Lisa Berkman, “The Role of Social Relations in Health Promotion,” and Bruce McEwen, “Protective and Damaging Effects of Stress Mediators,” pp. 148–54, 171–83, and 379–92 in I.

Reto,“Psychological Aspects of Delivering Nursing Care to the Geriatric Patient,” Critical Care Nursing Quarterly 26 (2003): 139–50; Deborah Carr, “Obesity and Perceived Discrimination in the United States,” paper presented at the meetings of the American Sociological Association, 2004; Stephanie Armour, “Your Appearance, Good or Bad, Can Affect Size of Your Paycheck,” USA Today, July 20, 2005. On the relative importance of discrimination and related factors as compared with “health risk behaviors” such as overweight and obesity, see Paula M. Lantz, John W. Notes 263 Lynch, et al., “Socioeconomic Disparities in Health Change in a Longitudinal Study of US Adults,” Social Science and Medicine 53 (2001): 29–40; Paula M. Lantz, James S. House, et al., “Socioeconomic Factors, Health Behaviors, and Mortality,” Journal of the American Medical Association 279 (1998): 1703–8; James S. Jackson, David R. Williams, and Myriam Torres, “Discrimination, Health and Mental Health: The Social Stress Process,” chap. 8 in Socioeconomic Conditions, Stress and Mental Disorders, published online by the Mental Health Statistics Improvement Program, 2003; Emilie Agardh, Anders Ahlbom, et al., “Explanations of Socioeconomic Differences in Excess Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Swedish Men and Women,” Diabetes Care 27 (2004): 716–21. 55.


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The Great Divergence: America's Growing Inequality Crisis and What We Can Do About It by Timothy Noah

assortative mating, autonomous vehicles, blue-collar work, Bonfire of the Vanities, Branko Milanovic, business cycle, call centre, collective bargaining, computer age, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Deng Xiaoping, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Erik Brynjolfsson, Everybody Ought to Be Rich, feminist movement, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Gini coefficient, Gunnar Myrdal, income inequality, industrial robot, invisible hand, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, lump of labour, manufacturing employment, moral hazard, oil shock, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, performance metric, positional goods, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, purchasing power parity, refrigerator car, rent control, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, The Spirit Level, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, union organizing, upwardly mobile, very high income, Vilfredo Pareto, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, Works Progress Administration, Yom Kippur War

Intergenerational upward relative mobility from one generation to the next certainly occurs in the United States. But it isn’t the norm. Most of what we know about long-term income-mobility trends in the United States during the previous half century comes from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a longitudinal study of more than nine thousand families from across the continental United States begun in 1968. The PSID is the world’s longest-running “panel survey” of nationally representative households. (A panel survey is a longitudinal study in which respondents are interviewed at regular intervals.) PSID participants are interviewed once a year, typically by phone; the response rate has been above 96 percent since 1969. Now old enough to include data on three or four generations, the survey covers a variety of topics of interest to scholars in the fields of health, psychology, and sociology, but its principal task is to collect data on income, wealth, consumption, employment, and other economic matters.


pages: 340 words: 92,904

Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and the Fall of Cars by Samuel I. Schwartz

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, car-free, City Beautiful movement, collaborative consumption, congestion charging, crowdsourcing, desegregation, Enrique Peñalosa, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, invention of the wheel, lake wobegon effect, Loma Prieta earthquake, longitudinal study, Lyft, Masdar, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nate Silver, oil shock, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, self-driving car, skinny streets, smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, the built environment, the map is not the territory, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, walkable city, Wall-E, white flight, white picket fence, Works Progress Administration, Yogi Berra, Zipcar

Walk thirty minutes a day, and reduce your risk by 18 percent. In the 1990s, Japan’s Osaka Company began surveying its employees in order to get a handle on the impact of lengthening the distance they walked to work, and their risk of higher blood pressure. Every additional ten minutes spent walking to and from work was associated with a 12 percent reduction in hypertension. Then there’s the not dying part. The Cooper Center Longitudinal Study, whose database now contains more than a quarter million records from more than a hundred thousand people, representing 1.8 million person-years, found that low fitness was the strongest predictor of death in any given year—more than obesity or even smoking. The Harvard Alumni Health Study, which followed more than seventeen thousand subjects for nearly twenty-four years, found that walking thirty minutes a day cut mortality by nearly a quarter.

See Charleston Area Regional Transportation Authority; Chattanooga Area Regional Transportation Authority Carter, Jimmy, 137 Central Park, and justification for reopening to traffic, 48–51 Charleston, South Carolina, 180, 242 transportation network in, 166–170 Charleston Area Regional Transportation Authority (CARTA), 168 Chattanooga, Tennessee, 190–191 Chattanooga Area Regional Transportation Authority (CARTA), 190–191 Chicago, Illinois, 85, 191, 200 walkability in, 148–151 Chicago Department of Transportation, 148 Chicago Municipal Code of 1922, 151 Chicago Pedestrian Plan, 148 Chicago-to-Miami Dixie Highway, 14 China, cars in, 80, 83 Cities decline of, 19–22, 33, 44 European, 44, 103, 176 and limited-access roads, 20–21, 29n, 31, 33, 35, 50, 61–62 See also Urban living City: Rediscovering the Center (Whyte), 143 City Beautiful movement, 27–28, 29 The City in History (Mumford), 20 CityMapper, 195 Civil rights, 36, 214 Civit, Adria, 121–122 Clean Air Act of 1970, 50 Columbia, Maryland, 159 Columbia University, Earth Institute, 235 Columbus, Ohio, 242 walkability in, 131–134 Columbus Healthy Places program, 132–134 Community, and traffic, connection between, 100–101 Community density, 242 and political choice, 224–225, 227 and prosperity, 105 Commuting by car and commuting time, increase in, 80–82 cost of, 103–104 and physical and mental stress, 93–94 versus walking or public transit, 93–97 Commuting effect, 81 Complete Streets, 131–132, 151–152. See also Skinny Streets Cone of vision, 98 CONEXPO-CON/AGC, 16 Congestion. See Traffic congestion Connectivity, 159–160 Consolidated Edison, 7 Context Walkability, 115 Contra Costa County (California) study, 100 Cooper Center Longitudinal Study, 95 Cornett, Mick, 139–141 Cottam, Roy, 49, 155 Cross-Bronx Expressway, 29, 30–34, 40, 60 The Culture of Cities (Mumford), 20 Cycling, 12, 13, 89–93, 124–125, 129, 136, 141–142, 156, 177, 192n, 223 versus driving, and unfamiliar streets, perspectives on, 97–98 health (physical and mental) benefits of, 93–97, 134 and safety, 122–124 See also Exercise; Health; Walking Dallas, Texas, 209 DASH.


The Data Revolution: Big Data, Open Data, Data Infrastructures and Their Consequences by Rob Kitchin

Bayesian statistics, business intelligence, business process, cellular automata, Celtic Tiger, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, conceptual framework, congestion charging, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, discrete time, disruptive innovation, George Gilder, Google Earth, Infrastructure as a Service, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invisible hand, knowledge economy, late capitalism, lifelogging, linked data, longitudinal study, Masdar, means of production, Nate Silver, natural language processing, openstreetmap, pattern recognition, platform as a service, recommendation engine, RFID, semantic web, sentiment analysis, slashdot, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, smart grid, smart meter, software as a service, statistical model, supply-chain management, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, transaction costs

The result was billions of pieces of interconnected data that were used to individually profile voters, assess if they were likely to vote and how, and how they might react to different policies and stories. The interlinking of data in Obama’s campaign created what Crampton et al. (2012) term an ‘information amplifier effect’, wherein the sum of data is more than the parts. Velocity A fundamental difference between small and big data is the dynamic nature of data generation. Small data usually consist of studies that are freeze-framed at a particular time and space. Even in longitudinal studies, the data are captured at discrete times (e.g., every few months or years). For example, censuses are generally conducted every five or ten years. In contrast, big data are generated on a much more continuous basis, in many cases in real-time or near to real-time. Rather than a sporadic trickle of data, laboriously harvested or processed, data are flowing at speed. Therefore, there is a move from dealing with batch processing to streaming data (Zikopoulos et al. 2012).

Index A/B testing 112 abduction 133, 137, 138–139, 148 accountability 34, 44, 49, 55, 63, 66, 113, 116, 165, 171, 180 address e-mail 42 IP 8, 167, 171 place 8, 32, 42, 45, 52, 93, 171 Web 105 administration 17, 30, 34, 40, 42, 56, 64, 67, 87, 89, 114–115, 116, 124, 174, 180, 182 aggregation 8, 14, 101, 140, 169, 171 algorithm 5, 9, 21, 45, 76, 77, 83, 85, 89, 101, 102, 103, 106, 109, 111, 112, 118, 119, 122, 125, 127, 130, 131, 134, 136, 142, 146, 154, 160, 172, 177, 179, 181, 187 Amazon 72, 96, 131, 134 Anderson, C. 130, 135 Andrejevic, M. 133, 167, 178 animation 106, 107 anonymity 57, 63, 79, 90, 92, 116, 167, 170, 171, 172, 178 apophenia 158, 159 Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) 57, 95, 152, 154 apps 34, 59, 62, 64, 65, 78, 86, 89, 90, 95, 97, 125, 151, 170, 174, 177 archive 21, 22, 24, 25, 29–41, 48, 68, 95, 151, 153, 185 archiving 23, 29–31, 64, 65, 141 artificial intelligence 101, 103 Acxiom 43, 44 astronomy 34, 41, 72, 97 ATM 92, 116 audio 74, 77, 83 automatic meter reading (AMR) 89 automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) 85, 89 automation 32, 51, 83, 85, 87, 89–90, 98, 99, 102, 103, 118, 127, 136, 141, 146, 180 Ayasdi 132, 134 backup 29, 31, 40, 64, 163 barcode 74, 85, 92, Bates, J. 56, 61, 62, 182 Batty, M. 90, 111, 112, 140 Berry, D. 134, 141 bias 13, 14, 19, 28, 45, 101, 134–136, 153, 154, 155, 160 Big Brother 126, 180 big data xv, xvi, xvii, 2, 6, 13, 16, 20, 21, 27–29, 42, 46, 67–183, 186, 187, 188, 190, 191, 192 analysis 100–112 characteristics 27–29, 67–79 enablers 80–87 epistemology 128–148 ethical issues 165–183 etymology 67 organisational issues 160–163 rationale 113–127 sources 87–99 technical issues 149–160 biological sciences 128–129, 137 biometric data 8, 84, 115 DNA 8, 71, 84 face 85, 88, 105 fingerprints 8, 9, 84, 87, 88, 115 gait 85, 88 iris 8, 84, 88 bit-rot 20 blog 6, 95, 170 Bonferroni principle 159 born digital 32, 46, 141 Bowker, G. 2, 19, 20, 22, 24 Borgman, C. 2, 7, 10, 20, 30, 37, 40, 41 boyd, D. 68, 75, 151, 152, 156, 158, 160, 182 Brooks, D. 130, 145 business 1, 16, 42, 45, 56, 61, 62, 67, 79, 110, 113–127, 130, 137, 149, 152, 161, 166, 172, 173, 187 calculative practices 115–116 Campbell’s Law 63, 127 camera 6, 81, 83, 87, 88, 89, 90, 107, 116, 124, 167, 178, 180 capitalism 15, 16, 21, 59, 61, 62, 86, 95, 114, 119–123, 126, 136, 161, 184, 186 capta 2 categorization 6, 8, 12, 19, 20, 102, 106, 176 causation 130, 132, 135, 147 CCTV 87, 88, 180 census 17, 18, 19, 22, 24, 27, 30, 43, 54, 68, 74, 75, 76, 77, 87, 102, 115, 157, 176 Centro De Operações Prefeitura Do Rio 124–125, 182 CERN 72, 82 citizen science 97–99, 155 citizens xvi, 45, 57, 58, 61, 63, 71, 88, 114, 115, 116, 126, 127, 165, 166, 167, 174, 176, 179, 187 citizenship 55, 115, 170, 174 classification 6, 10, 11, 23, 28, 104, 105, 157, 176 clickstream 43, 92, 94, 120, 122, 154, 176 clustering 103, 104, 105, 106, 110, 122 Codd, E. 31 competitiveness xvi, 16, 114, computation 2, 4, 5, 6, 29, 32, 68, 80, 81–82, 83, 84, 86, 98, 100, 101, 102, 110, 129, 136, 139–147, 181 computational social science xiv, 139–147, 152, 186 computing cloud xv, 81, 86 distributed xv, 37, 78, 81, 83, 98 mobile xv, 44, 78, 80, 81, 83, 85, 139 pervasive 81, 83–84, 98, 124 ubiquitous 80, 81, 83–84, 98, 100, 124, 126 confidence level 14, 37, 133, 153, 160 confidentiality 8, 169, 175 control creep 126, 166, 178–179 cookies 92, 119, 171 copyright 16, 30, 40, 49, 51, 54, 96 correlation 105, 110, 130, 131, 132, 135, 145, 147, 157, 159 cost xv, 6, 11, 16, 27, 31, 32, 37, 38, 39, 40, 44, 52, 54, 57, 58, 59, 61, 66, 80, 81, 83, 85, 93, 96, 100, 116, 117, 118, 120, 127, 150 Crawford, K. 68, 75, 135, 151, 152, 155, 156, 158, 160, 182 credit cards 8, 13, 42, 44, 45, 85, 92, 167, 171, 176 risk 42, 63, 75, 120, 176, 177 crime 55, 115, 116, 123, 175, 179 crowdsourcing 37, 73, 93, 96–97, 155, 160 Cukier, K. 68, 71, 72, 91, 114, 128, 153, 154, 161, 174 customer relationship management (CRM) 42, 99, 117–118, 120, 122, 176 cyber-infrastructure 33, 34, 35, 41, 186 dashboard 106, 107, 108 data accuracy 12, 14, 110, 153, 154, 171 administrative 84–85, 89, 115, 116, 125, 150, 178 aggregators see data brokers amplification 8, 76, 99, 102, 167 analogue 1, 3, 32, 83, 88, 140, 141 analytics 42, 43, 63, 73, 80, 100–112, 116, 118, 119, 120, 124, 125, 129, 132, 134, 137, 139, 140, 145, 146, 149, 151, 159, 160, 161, 176, 179, 186, 191 archive see archive assemblage xvi, xvii, 2, 17, 22, 24–26, 66, 80, 83, 99, 117, 135, 139, 183, 184–192 attribute 4, 8–9, 31, 115, 150 auditing 33, 40, 64, 163 authenticity 12, 153 automated see automation bias see bias big see big data binary 1, 4, 32, 69 biometric see biometric data body 177–178, 187 boosterism xvi, 67, 127, 187, 192 brokers 42–45, 46, 57, 74, 75, 167, 183, 186, 187, 188, 191 calibration 13, 20 catalogue 32, 33, 35 clean 12, 40, 64, 86, 100, 101, 102, 152, 153, 154, 156 clearing house 33 commodity xvi, 4, 10, 12, 15, 16, 41, 42–45, 56, 161 commons 16, 42 consolidators see data brokers cooked 20, 21 corruption 19, 30 curation 9, 29, 30, 34, 36, 57, 141 definition 1, 2–4 deluge xv, 28, 73, 79, 100, 112, 130, 147, 149–151, 157, 168, 175 derived 1, 2, 3, 6–7, 8, 31, 32, 37, 42, 43, 44, 45, 62, 86, 178 deserts xvi, 28, 80, 147, 149–151, 161 determinism 45, 135 digital 1, 15, 31, 32, 67, 69, 71, 77, 82, 85, 86, 90, 137 directories 33, 35 dirty 29, 154, 163 dive 64–65, 188 documentation 20, 30, 31, 40, 64, 163 dredging 135, 147, 158, 159 dump 64, 150, 163 dynamic see dynamic data enrichment 102 error 13, 14, 44, 45, 101, 110, 153, 154, 156, 169, 175, 180 etymology 2–3, 67 exhaust 6–7, 29, 80, 90 fidelity 34, 40, 55, 79, 152–156 fishing see data dredging formats xvi, 3, 5, 6, 9, 22, 25, 30, 33, 34, 40, 51, 52, 54, 65, 77, 102, 153, 156, 157, 174 framing 12–26, 133–136, 185–188 gamed 154 holding 33, 35, 64 infrastructure xv, xvi, xvii, 2, 21–24, 25, 27–47, 52, 64, 102, 112, 113, 128, 129, 136, 140, 143, 147, 148, 149, 150, 156, 160, 161, 162, 163, 166, 184, 185, 186, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192 integration 42, 149, 156–157 integrity 12, 30, 33, 34, 37, 40, 51, 154, 157, 171 interaction 43, 72, 75, 85, 92–93, 94, 111, 167 interoperability 9, 23, 24, 34, 40, 52, 64, 66, 156–157, 163, 184 interval 5, 110 licensing see licensing lineage 9, 152–156 linked see linked data lost 5, 30, 31, 39, 56, 150 markets xvi, 8, 15, 25, 42-45, 56, 59, 75, 167, 178 materiality see materiality meta see metadata mining 5, 77, 101, 103, 104–106, 109, 110, 112, 129, 132, 138, 159, 188 minimisation 45, 171, 178, 180 nominal 5, 110 ordinal 5, 110 open see open data ontology 12, 28, 54, 150 operational 3 ownership 16, 40, 96, 156, 166 preparation 40, 41, 54, 101–102 philosophy of 1, 2, 14, 17–21, 22, 25, 128–148, 185–188 policy 14, 23, 30, 33, 34, 37, 40, 48, 64, 160, 163, 170, 172, 173, 178 portals 24, 33, 34, 35 primary 3, 7–8, 9, 50, 90 preservation 30, 31, 34, 36, 39, 40, 64, 163 protection 15, 16, 17, 20, 23, 28, 40, 45, 62, 63, 64, 167, 168–174, 175, 178, 188 protocols 23, 25, 30, 34, 37 provenance 9, 30, 40, 79, 153, 156, 179 qualitative 4–5, 6, 14, 146, 191 quantitative 4–5, 14, 109, 127, 136, 144, 145, 191 quality 12, 13, 14, 34, 37, 40, 45, 52, 55, 57, 58, 64, 79, 102, 149, 151, 152–156, 157, 158 raw 1, 2, 6, 9, 20, 86, 185 ratio 5, 110 real-time 65, 68, 71, 73, 76, 88, 89, 91, 99, 102, 106, 107, 116, 118, 121, 124, 125, 139, 151, 181 reduction 5, 101–102 representative 4, 8, 13, 19, 21, 28 relational 3, 8, 28, 44, 68, 74–76, 79, 84, 85, 87, 88, 99, 100, 119, 140, 156, 166, 167, 184 reliability 12, 13–14, 52, 135, 155 resellers see data brokers resolution 7, 26, 27, 28, 68, 72, 73–74, 79, 84, 85, 89, 92, 133–134, 139, 140, 150, 180 reuse 7, 27, 29, 30, 31, 32, 39, 40, 41, 42, 46, 48, 49–50, 52, 56, 59, 61, 64, 102, 113, 163 scaled xvi, xvii 32, 100, 101, 112, 138, 149, 150, 163, 186 scarcity xv, xvi, 28, 80, 149–151, 161 science xvi, 100–112, 130, 137–139, 148, 151, 158, 160–163, 164, 191 secondary 3, 7–8 security see security selection 101, 176 semi-structured 4, 5–6, 77, 100, 105 sensitive 15, 16, 45, 63, 64, 137, 151, 167, 168, 171, 173, 174 shadow 166–168, 177, 179, 180 sharing 9, 11, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 29–41, 48–66, 80, 82, 95, 113, 141, 151, 174, 186 small see small data social construction 19–24 spatial 17, 52, 63, 68, 73, 75, 84–85, 88–89 standards xvi, 9, 14, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 31, 33, 34, 38, 40, 52, 53, 64, 102, 153, 156, 157 storage see storage stranded 156 structures 4, 5–6, 12, 21, 23, 30, 31, 40, 51, 68, 77, 86, 103, 106, 156 structured 4, 5–6, 11, 32, 52, 68, 71, 75, 77, 79, 86, 88, 105, 112, 163 tertiary 7–8, 9, 27, 74 time-series 68, 102, 106, 110 transient 6–7, 72, 150 transactional 42, 43, 71, 72, 74, 75, 85, 92, 93–94, 120, 122, 131, 167, 175, 176, 177 uncertainty see uncertainty unstructured 4, 5–6, 32, 52, 68, 71, 75, 77, 86, 100, 105, 112, 140, 153, 157 validity 12, 40, 72, 102, 135, 138, 154, 156, 158 variety 26, 28, 43, 44, 46, 68, 77, 79, 86, 139, 140, 166, 184 velocity 26, 28, 29, 68, 76–77, 78, 79, 86, 88, 102, 106, 112. 117, 140, 150, 153, 156, 184 veracity 13, 79, 102, 135, 152–156, 157, 163 volume 7, 26, 27, 28, 29, 32, 46, 67, 68, 69–72, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 86, 102, 106, 110, 125, 130, 135, 140, 141, 150, 156, 166, 184 volunteered 87, 93–98, 99, 155 databank 29, 34, 43 database NoSQL 6, 32, 77, 78, 86–87 relational 5, 6, 8, 32–33, 43, 74–75, 77, 78, 86, 100, 105 data-driven science 133, 137–139, 186 data-ism 130 datafication 181 dataveillance 15, 116, 126, 157, 166–168, 180, 181, 182, 184 decision tree 104, 111, 122, 159, deconstruction 24, 98, 126, 189–190 decontextualisation 22 deduction 132, 133, 134, 137, 138, 139, 148 deidentification 171, 172, 178 democracy 48, 55, 62, 63, 96, 117, 170 description 9, 101, 104, 109, 143, 147, 151, 190 designated community 30–31, 33, 46 digital devices 13, 25, 80, 81, 83, 84, 87, 90–91, 167, 174, 175 humanities xvi, 139–147, 152, 186 object identifier 8, 74 serendipity 134 discourse 15, 20, 55, 113–114, 117, 122, 127, 192 discursive regime 15, 20, 24, 56, 98, 113–114, 116, 123, 126, 127, 190 disruptive innovation xv, 68, 147, 184, 192 distributed computing xv, 37, 78, 81, 83, 98 sensors 124, 139, 160 storage 34, 37, 68, 78, 80, 81, 85–87, 97 division of labour 16 Dodge, M. 2, 21, 68, 73, 74, 76, 83, 84, 85, 89, 90, 92, 93, 96, 113, 115, 116, 124, 154, 155, 167, 177, 178, 179, 180, 189 driver’s licence 45, 87, 171 drone 88, Dublin Core 9 dynamic data xv, xvi, 76–77, 86, 106, 112 pricing 16, 120, 123, 177 eBureau 43, 44 ecological fallacy 14, 102, 135, 149, 158–160 Economist, The 58, 67, 69, 70, 72, 128 efficiency 16, 38, 55, 56, 59, 66, 77, 93, 102, 111, 114, 116, 118, 119, 174, 176 e-mail 71, 72–73, 82, 85, 90, 93, 116, 174, 190 empiricism 129, 130–137, 141, 186 empowerment 61, 62–63, 93, 115, 126, 165 encryption 171, 175 Enlightenment 114 Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) 99, 117, 120 entity extraction 105 epistemology 3, 12, 19, 73, 79, 112, 128–148, 149, 185, 186 Epsilon 43 ethics 12, 14–15, 16, 19, 26, 30, 31, 40, 41, 64, 73, 99, 128, 144, 151, 163, 165–183, 186 ethnography 78, 189, 190, 191 European Union 31, 38, 45, 49, 58, 59, 70, 157, 168, 173, 178 everyware 83 exhaustive 13, 27, 28, 68, 72–73, 79, 83, 88, 100, 110, 118, 133–134, 140, 150, 153, 166, 184 explanation 101, 109, 132, 133, 134, 137, 151 extensionality 67, 78, 140, 184 experiment 2, 3, 6, 34, 75, 78, 118, 129, 131, 137, 146, 150, 160 Facebook 6, 28, 43, 71, 72, 77, 78, 85, 94, 119, 154, 170 facts 3, 4, 9, 10, 52, 140, 159 Fair Information Practice Principles 170–171, 172 false positive 159 Federal Trade Commission (FTC) 45, 173 flexibility 27, 28, 68, 77–78, 79, 86, 140, 157, 184 Flickr 95, 170 Flightradar 107 Floridi, L. 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 73, 112, 130, 151 Foucault, M. 16, 113, 114, 189 Fourth paradigm 129–139 Franks, B. 6, 111, 154 freedom of information 48 freemium service 60 funding 15, 28, 29, 31, 34, 37, 38, 40, 41, 46, 48, 52, 54–55, 56, 57–58, 59, 60, 61, 65, 67, 75, 119, 143, 189 geographic information systems 147 genealogy 98, 127, 189–190 Gitelman, L. 2, 19, 20, 21, 22 Global Positioning System (GPS) 58, 59, 73, 85, 88, 90, 121, 154, 169 Google 32, 71, 73, 78, 86, 106, 109, 134, 170 governance 15, 21, 22, 23, 38, 40, 55, 63, 64, 66, 85, 87, 89, 117, 124, 126, 136, 168, 170, 178–182, 186, 187, 189 anticipatory 126, 166, 178–179 technocratic 126, 179–182 governmentality xvi, 15, 23, 25, 40, 87, 115, 127, 168, 185, 191 Gray, J. 129–130 Guardian, The 49 Gurstein, M. 52, 62, 63 hacking 45, 154, 174, 175 hackathon 64–65, 96, 97, 188, 191 Hadoop 87 hardware 32, 34, 40, 63, 78, 83, 84, 124, 143, 160 human resourcing 112, 160–163 hype cycle 67 hypothesis 129, 131, 132, 133, 137, 191 IBM 70, 123, 124, 143, 162, 182 identification 8, 44, 68, 73, 74, 77, 84–85, 87, 90, 92, 115, 169, 171, 172 ideology 4, 14, 25, 61, 113, 126, 128, 130, 134, 140, 144, 185, 190 immutable mobiles 22 independence 3, 19, 20, 24, 100 indexical 4, 8–9, 32, 44, 68, 73–74, 79, 81, 84–85, 88, 91, 98, 115, 150, 156, 167, 184 indicator 13, 62, 76, 102, 127 induction 133, 134, 137, 138, 148 information xvii, 1, 3, 4, 6, 9–12, 13, 23, 26, 31, 33, 42, 44, 45, 48, 53, 67, 70, 74, 75, 77, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 100, 101, 104, 105, 109, 110, 119, 125, 130, 138, 140, 151, 154, 158, 161, 168, 169, 171, 174, 175, 184, 192 amplification effect 76 freedom of 48 management 80, 100 overload xvi public sector 48 system 34, 65, 85, 117, 181 visualisation 109 information and communication technologies (ICTs) xvi, 37, 80, 83–84, 92, 93, 123, 124 Innocentive 96, 97 INSPIRE 157 instrumental rationality 181 internet 9, 32, 42, 49, 52, 53, 66, 70, 74, 80, 81, 82, 83, 86, 92, 94, 96, 116, 125, 167 of things xv, xvi, 71, 84, 92, 175 intellectual property rights xvi, 11, 12, 16, 25, 30, 31, 40, 41, 49, 50, 56, 62, 152, 166 Intelius 43, 44 intelligent transportation systems (ITS) 89, 124 interoperability 9, 23, 24, 34, 40, 52, 64, 66, 149, 156–157, 163, 184 interpellation 165, 180, 188 interviews 13, 15, 19, 78, 155, 190 Issenberg, S. 75, 76, 78, 119 jurisdiction 17, 25, 51, 56, 57, 74, 114, 116 Kafka 180 knowledge xvii, 1, 3, 9–12, 19, 20, 22, 25, 48, 53, 55, 58, 63, 67, 93, 96, 110, 111, 118, 128, 130, 134, 136, 138, 142, 159, 160, 161, 162, 187, 192 contextual 48, 64, 132, 136–137, 143, 144, 187 discovery techniques 77, 138 driven science 139 economy 16, 38, 49 production of 16, 20, 21, 24, 26, 37, 41, 112, 117, 134, 137, 144, 184, 185 pyramid 9–10, 12, situated 16, 20, 28, 135, 137, 189 Latour, B. 22, 133 Lauriault, T.P. 15, 16, 17, 23, 24, 30, 31, 33, 37, 38, 40, 153 law of telecosm 82 legal issues xvi, 1, 23, 25, 30, 31, 115, 165–179, 182, 183, 187, 188 levels of measurement 4, 5 libraries 31, 32, 52, 71, 141, 142 licensing 14, 25, 40, 42, 48, 49, 51, 53, 57, 73, 96, 151 LIDAR 88, 89, 139 linked data xvii, 52–54, 66, 156 longitudinal study 13, 76, 140, 149, 150, 160 Lyon, D. 44, 74, 87, 167, 178, 180 machine learning 5, 6, 101, 102–104, 106, 111, 136, 188 readable 6, 52, 54, 81, 84–85, 90, 92, 98 vision 106 management 62, 88, 117–119, 120, 121, 124, 125, 131, 162, 181 Manovich, L. 141, 146, 152, 155 Manyika, J. 6, 16, 70, 71, 72, 104, 116, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 161 map 5, 22, 24, 34, 48, 54, 56, 73, 85, 88, 93, 96, 106, 107, 109, 115, 143, 144, 147, 154, 155–156, 157, 190 MapReduce 86, 87 marginal cost 11, 32, 57, 58, 59, 66, 151 marketing 8, 44, 58, 73, 117, 119, 120–123, 131, 176 marketisation 56, 61–62, 182 materiality 4, 19, 21, 24, 25, 66, 183, 185, 186, 189, 190 Mattern, S. 137, 181 Mayer-Schonberger, V. 68, 71, 72, 91, 114, 153, 154, 174 measurement 1, 3, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13, 15, 19, 23, 69, 97, 98, 115, 128, 166 metadata xvi, 1, 3, 4, 6, 8–9, 13, 22, 24, 29, 30, 31, 33, 35, 40, 43, 50, 54, 64, 71, 72, 74, 78, 85, 91, 93, 102, 105, 153, 155, 156 methodology 145, 158, 185 middleware 34 military intelligence 71, 116, 175 Miller, H.J. xvi, 27, 100, 101, 103, 104, 138, 139, 159 Minelli, M. 101, 120, 137, 168, 170, 171, 172, 174, 176 mixed methods 147, 191 mobile apps 78 computing xv, 44, 78, 80, 81, 83, 85, 139 mapping 88 phones 76, 81, 83, 90, 93, 151, 168, 170, 175 storage 85 mode of production 16 model 7, 11, 12, 24, 32, 37, 44, 57, 72, 73, 101, 103, 105, 106, 109, 110–112, 119, 125, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 137, 139, 140, 144, 145, 147, 158–159, 166, 181 agent-based model 111, business 30, 54, 57–60, 61, 95, 118, 119, 121 environmental 139, 166 meteorological 72 time-space 73 transportation 7 modernity 3 Moore’s Law 81, moral philosophy 14 Moretti, F. 141–142 museum 31, 32, 137 NASA 7 National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) 67 National Security Agency (NSA) 45, 116 natural language processing 104, 105 near-field communication 89, 91 neoliberalism 56, 61–62, 126, 182 neural networks 104, 105, 111 New Public Management 62, non-governmental organisations xvi, 43, 55, 56, 73, 117 non-excludable 11, 151 non-rivalrous 11, 57, 151 normality 100, 101 normative thinking 12, 15, 19, 66, 99, 127, 144, 182, 183, 187, 192 Obama, B. 53, 75–76, 78, 118–119 objectivity 2, 17, 19, 20, 62, 135, 146, 185 observant participation 191 oligopticon 133, 167, 180 ontology 3, 12, 17–21, 22, 28, 54, 79, 128, 138, 150, 156, 177, 178, 184, 185 open data xv, xvi, xvii, 2, 12, 16, 21, 25, 48–66, 97, 114, 124, 128, 129, 140, 149, 151, 163, 164, 167, 186, 187, 188, 190, 191, 192 critique of 61–66 economics of 57–60 rationale 54–56 Open Definition 50 OpenGovData 50, 51 Open Knowledge Foundation 49, 52, 55, 58, 189, 190 open science 48, 72, 98 source 48, 56, 60, 87, 96 OpenStreetMap 73, 93, 96, 154, 155–156 optimisation 101, 104, 110–112, 120, 121, 122, 123 Ordnance Survey 54, 57 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 49, 50, 59 overlearning 158, 159 panoptic 133, 167, 180 paradigm 112, 128–129, 130, 138, 147, 148, 186 participant observation 190, 191 participation 48, 49, 55, 66, 82, 94, 95, 96, 97–98, 126, 155, 165, 180 passport 8, 45, 84, 87, 88, 115 patent 13, 16, 41, 51 pattern recognition 101, 104–106, 134, 135 personally identifiable information 171 philanthropy 32, 38, 58 philosophy of science 112, 128–148, 185–188 phishing 174, 175 phone hacking 45 photography 6, 43, 71, 72, 74, 77, 86, 87, 88, 93, 94, 95, 105, 115, 116, 141, 155, 170 policing 80, 88, 116, 124, 125, 179 political economy xvi, 15–16, 25, 42–45, 182, 185, 188, 191 Pollock, R. 49, 54, 56, 57 58, 59 positivism 129, 136–137, 140, 141, 144, 145, 147 post-positivism 140, 144, 147 positionality 135, 190 power/knowledge 16, 22 predictive modelling 4, 7, 12, 34, 44, 45, 76, 101, 103, 104, 110–112, 118, 119, 120, 125, 132, 140, 147, 168, 179 profiling 110–112, 175–178, 179, 180 prescription 101 pre-analytical 2, 3, 19, 20, 185 pre-analytics 101–102, 112 pre-factual 3, 4, 19, 185 PRISM 45, 116 privacy 15, 28, 30, 40, 45, 51, 57, 63, 64, 96, 117, 163, 165, 166, 168–174, 175, 178, 182, 187 privacy by design 45, 173, 174 probability 14, 110, 153, 158 productivity xvi, 16, 39, 55, 66, 92, 114, 118 profiling 12, 42–45, 74, 75, 110–112, 119, 166, 168, 175–178, 179, 180, 187 propriety rights 48, 49, 54, 57, 62 prosumption 93 public good 4, 12, 16, 42, 52, 56, 58, 79, 97 –private partnerships 56, 59 sector information (PSI) 12, 48, 54, 56, 59, 61, 62 quantified self 95 redlining 176, 182 reductionism 73, 136, 140, 142, 143, 145 regression 102, 104, 105, 110, 111, 122 regulation xvi, 15, 16, 23, 25, 40, 44, 46, 83, 85, 87, 89–90, 114, 115, 123, 124, 126, 168, 174, 178, 180, 181–182, 187, 192 research design 7, 13, 14, 77–78, 98, 137–138, 153, 158 Renaissance xvi, 129, 141 repository 29, 33, 34, 41 representativeness 13, 14, 19, 21 Resource Description Framework (RDF) 53, 54 remote sensing 73–74, 105 RFID 74, 85, 90, 91, 169 rhetorical 3, 4, 185 right to be forgotten 45, 172, 187 information (RTI) 48, 62 risk 16, 44, 58, 63, 118, 120, 123, 132, 158, 174, 176–177, 178, 179, 180 Rosenberg, D. 1, 3 Ruppert, E. 22, 112, 157, 163, 187 sampling 13, 14, 27, 28, 46, 68, 72, 73, 77, 78, 88, 100, 101, 102, 120, 126, 133, 138, 139, 146, 149–150, 152, 153, 154, 156, 159 scale of economy 37 scanners 6, 25, 29, 32, 83, 85, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 175, 177, 180 science xvi, 1, 2, 3, 19, 20, 29, 31, 34, 37, 46, 65, 67, 71, 72, 73, 78, 79, 97, 98, 100, 101, 103, 111, 112, 128–139, 140, 147, 148, 150, 158, 161, 165, 166, 181, 184, 186 scientific method 129, 130, 133, 134, 136, 137–138, 140, 147, 148, 186 security data 28, 33, 34, 40, 45, 46, 51, 57, 126, 157, 166, 169, 171, 173, 174–175, 182, 187 national 42, 71, 88, 116–117, 172, 176, 178, 179 private 99, 115, 118, 151 social 8, 32, 45, 87, 115, 171 segmentation 104, 105, 110, 119, 120, 121, 122, 176 semantic information 9, 10, 11, 105, 157 Web 49, 52, 53, 66 sensors xv, 6, 7, 19, 20, 24, 25, 28, 34, 71, 76, 83, 84, 91–92, 95, 124, 139, 150, 160 sentiment analysis 105, 106, 121, Siegel, E. 103, 110, 111, 114, 120, 132, 158, 176, 179 signal 9, 151, 159 Silver, N. 136, 151, 158 simulation 4, 32, 37, 101, 104, 110–112, 119, 129, 133, 137, 139, 140 skills 37, 48, 52, 53, 57, 63, 94, 97, 98, 112, 149, 160–163, 164 small data 21, 27–47, 68, 72, 75, 76, 77, 79, 100, 103, 110, 112, 146, 147, 148, 150, 156, 160, 166, 184, 186, 188, 191 smart cards 90 cities 91, 92, 99, 124–125, 181–182 devices 83 metering 89, 123, 174 phones 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 94, 107, 121, 155, 170, 174 SmartSantander 91 social computing xvi determinism 144 media xv, 13, 42, 43, 76, 78, 90, 93, 94–95, 96, 105, 119, 121, 140, 150, 151, 152, 154, 155, 160, 167, 176, 180 physics 144 security number 8, 32, 45, 87, 115, 171 sorting 126, 166, 168, 175–178, 182 sociotechnical systems 21–24, 47, 66, 183, 185, 188 software 6, 20, 32, 34, 40, 48, 53, 54, 56, 63, 80, 83, 84, 86, 88, 96, 132, 143, 160, 161, 163, 166, 170, 172, 175, 177, 180, 189 Solove, D. 116, 120, 168, 169, 170, 172, 176, 178, 180 solutionism 181 sousveillance 95–96 spatial autocorrelation 146 data infrastructure 34, 35, 38 processes 136, 144 resolution 149 statistics 110 video 88 spatiality 17, 157 Star, S.L. 19, 20, 23, 24 stationarity 100 statistical agencies 8, 30, 34, 35, 115 geography 17, 74, 157 statistics 4, 8, 13, 14, 24, 48, 77, 100, 101, 102, 104, 105, 109–110, 111, 129, 132, 134, 135, 136, 140, 142, 143, 145, 147, 159 descriptive 4, 106, 109, 147 inferential 4, 110, 147 non-parametric 105, 110 parametric 105, 110 probablistic 110 radical 147 spatial 110 storage 31–32, 68, 72, 73, 78, 80, 85–87, 88, 100, 118, 161, 171 analogue 85, 86 digital 85–87 media 20, 86 store loyalty cards 42, 45, 165 Sunlight Foundation 49 supervised learning 103 Supply Chain Management (SCM) 74, 99, 117–118, 119, 120, 121 surveillance 15, 71, 80, 83, 87–90, 95, 115, 116, 117, 123, 124, 151, 165, 167, 168, 169, 180 survey 6, 17, 19, 22, 28, 42, 68, 75, 77, 87, 115, 120 sustainability 16, 33, 34, 57, 58, 59, 61, 64–66, 87, 114, 123–124, 126, 155 synchronicity 14, 95, 102 technological handshake 84, 153 lock-in 166, 179–182 temporality 17, 21, 27, 28, 32, 37, 68, 75, 111, 114, 157, 160, 186 terrorism 116, 165, 179 territory 16, 38, 74, 85, 167 Tesco 71, 120 Thrift, N. 83, 113, 133, 167, 176 TopCoder 96 trading funds 54–55, 56, 57 transparency 19, 38, 44, 45, 48–49, 55, 61, 62, 63, 113, 115, 117, 118, 121, 126, 165, 173, 178, 180 trust 8, 30, 33, 34, 40, 44, 55, 84, 117, 152–156, 163, 175 trusted digital repository 33–34 Twitter 6, 71, 78, 94, 106, 107, 133, 143, 144, 146, 152, 154, 155, 170 uncertainty 10, 13, 14, 100, 102, 110, 156, 158 uneven development 16 Uniform Resource Identifiers (URIs) 53, 54 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 49 universalism 20, 23, 133, 140, 144, 154, 190 unsupervised learning 103 utility 1, 28, 53, 54, 55, 61, 63, 64–66, 100, 101, 114, 115, 134, 147, 163, 185 venture capital 25, 59 video 6, 43, 71, 74, 77, 83, 88, 90, 93, 94, 106, 141, 146, 170 visual analytics 106–109 visualisation 5, 10, 34, 77, 101, 102, 104, 106–109, 112, 125, 132, 141, 143 Walmart 28, 71, 99, 120 Web 2.0 81, 94–95 Weinberger, D. 9, 10, 11, 96, 97, 132, 133 White House 48 Wikipedia 93, 96, 106, 107, 143, 154, 155 Wired 69, 130 wisdom 9–12, 114, 161 XML 6, 53 Zikopoulos, P.C. 6, 16, 68, 70, 73, 76, 119, 151


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The Narcissist Next Door by Jeffrey Kluger

Albert Einstein, always be closing, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Bernie Madoff, Columbine, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, impulse control, Jony Ive, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, theory of mind, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, twin studies, Walter Mischel, zero-sum game

This is the same dynamic that occurs with a narcissistic coworker, but with a boss—someone who’s running the show—things are that much more thrilling and you’re only too happy to fall in line. It’s only in the later phase, what’s known as the enduring zone, that the egotism, self-absorption and insensitivity of the narcissist emerge. Psychologist Delroy Paulhus of the University of British Columbia conducted a longitudinal study in which he set narcissists—or, as he decorously called them, “trait self-enhancers”—to work on a project with non-narcissists, had them meet at regular intervals and followed them from the time they met to the time they got to know one another and finally to the time the working relationships inevitably fell apart. Typically, this boom-and-bust cycle played out over a period of just weeks.

The old thinking was that the refusal of personality-disordered people to own up to their problems would forever foreclose the possibility of recovery. “By the age of thirty,” wrote William James in the authoritative 1890 textbook Principles of Psychology, “the character has set like plaster, and will never soften again.” And as work by people like Campbell still shows, there’s a lot of truth in that. Yet in 1990, Lenzenweger launched a sixteen-year longitudinal study, funded by the National Institute of Mental Health, and found that even without a lick of therapy, the severity of most personality disorders—including narcissism—diminishes over time. The mechanism is unclear, and the problems by no means vanish. But as with so many other things, age appears simply to have a seasoning and mellowing effect. “Contrary to about a hundred years of teaching and psychiatric theory,” says Lenzenweger, “personality disorders were looking fairly malleable.


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Girls & Sex: Navigating the Complicated New Landscape by Peggy Orenstein

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Golden Gate Park, index card, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Skype, Snapchat, software studies

., “Association Between Sexual Behaviors, Bullying Victimization, and Suicidal Ideation in a National Sample of High School Students.” 88perhaps due to a lack of education, or perhaps: Regnerus, Forbidden Fruit. Regnerus found that only half of sexually active teenagers who report seeking guidance from God or the Scriptures when making a tough decision say they use protection every time they have intercourse. Among sexually active youth who say they look to parents or another trusted adult for advice, 69 percent do. Regnerus’s findings were drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (hereafter Add Health) as well as a national survey he and his colleagues conducted of about 3,400 children ages thirteen to seventeen. 88Pledging has to feel special: Bearman and Brückner, “Promising the Future.” Bearman and Brückner’s data were drawn from Add Health. 89Male pledgers are four times more: Bearman and Brückner, “After the Promise.” 89by their twenties, over 80 percent: Rosenbaum, “Patient Teenagers?”

The Curse of the Good Girl: Raising Authentic Girls with Courage and Confidence. Reprint. New York: Penguin, 2010. . Odd Girl Out, Revised and Updated: The Hidden Culture of Aggression in Girls. New York: Mariner Books, 2011. Simpson, Jeffry A., W. Andrew Collins, and Jessica E. Salvatore. “The Impact of Early Interpersonal Experience on Adult Romantic Relationship Functioning: Recent Findings from the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation.” Current Directions in Psychological Science 20, no. 6 (2011): 355–59. Sinozich, Sofi, and Lynn Langton. Special Report: Rape and Sexual Assault Victimization Among College-Age Females, 1995–2013. Washington, DC: Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics, U.S. Department of Justice, 2014. Slater, Amy, and Marika Tiggeman. “A Test of Objectification Theory in Adolescent Girls.”


Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth About Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers by David Perlmutter, Kristin Loberg

epigenetics, Gary Taubes, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, phenotype, publication bias, Ralph Waldo Emerson, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell

Even being “pre-diabetic,” when blood sugar issues are just beginning, is associated with a decline in brain function and shrinkage of the brain’s memory center; it is also an independent risk factor for full-blown Alzheimer’s disease. It’s hard to believe that we couldn’t have known about this connection between diabetes and dementia sooner, but it’s taken us a long time to connect the dots and conduct the kind of longitudinal studies that such a conclusion requires. It’s also taken us time to figure out the obvious question that stems from this link: How does diabetes contribute to dementia? First, if you’re insulin resistant, your body may not be able to break down a protein (amyloid) that forms brain plaques associated with brain disease. Second, high blood sugar provokes menacing biological reactions that injure the body, by producing certain oxygen-containing molecules that damage cells and causing inflammation that can result in hardening and narrowing of the arteries in the brain (not to mention elsewhere in the body).

Sonia Gandhi and Audrey Abramov, “Mechanism of Oxidative Stress in Neurodegeneration,” Oxidative Medicine and Cellular Longevity (2012). 15. C. Enzinger, et al., “Risk Factors for Progression of Brain Atrophy in Aging: Six-year Follow-up of Normal Subjects,” Neurology 64, no. 10 (May 24, 2005): 1704–11. 16. M. Hamer, et al., “Haemoglobin A1c, Fasting Glucose and Future Risk of Elevated Depressive Symptoms over 2 Years of Follow-up in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing,” Psychological Medicine 41, no. 9 (September 2011): 1889–96. 17. C. Geroldi, et al., “Insulin Resistance in Cognitive Impairment: The InCHIANTI Study,” Archives of Neurology 62, no. 7 (2005): 1067–72. 18. M. Adamczak and A. Wiecek, “The Adipose Tissue as an Endocrine Organ,” Seminars in Nephrology 33, no. 1 (January 2013): 2–13. 19. E. L. de Hollander, et al., “The Association Between Waist Circumference and Risk of Mortality Considering Body Mass Index in 65-to 74-year-olds: A Meta-analysis of 29 Cohorts Involving More Than 58,000 Elderly Persons,” International Journal of Epidemiology 41, no. 3 (June 2012): 805–17. 20.


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The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity by Lynda Gratton, Andrew Scott

3D printing, Airbnb, assortative mating, carbon footprint, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, disruptive innovation, diversification, Downton Abbey, Erik Brynjolfsson, falling living standards, financial independence, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Google Glasses, indoor plumbing, information retrieval, intangible asset, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, New Economic Geography, old age dependency ratio, pattern recognition, pension reform, Peter Thiel, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, side project, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, The Future of Employment, uber lyft, women in the workforce, young professional

These are the assets that help an individual become productive and successful at work and should therefore boost their income. Obviously, skills and knowledge will be a major component of this category, but there is much else as well. 2The second category is vitality assets. Broadly these capture mental and physical health and well-being. Included here are friendship, positive family relationships and partnerships, as well as personal fitness and health. Longitudinal studies suggest that high stocks of vitality assets are a key component in a measure of a good life. 3The final category is transformational assets. Across a 100-year life, people will experience great change and many transitions. These transformational assets refer to their self-knowledge, their capacity to reach out into diverse networks and their openness to new experiences. This group of assets has been relatively under-utilized within a traditional three-stage life but will become crucial in a multi-stage life. 1.

Regenerative friendships The development of a posse of like-minded peers builds the professional social capital that supports us in staying productive. However, it is the network of close, positive friends who will keep you sane and happy and contribute to your vitality asset. In her book The Shift, Lynda called these types of long-established and rich friendships the Regenerative Community, to reinforce the role these people can play in regeneration.23 Whether it is the Harvard longitudinal study mentioned earlier or studies of communities of people who enjoy vitality into their old age, they all inevitably show the same phenomenon – people who are well connected to others are more vital, energetic and positive than those who are isolated.24 These networks are subtly different from those that are the foundation of professional social capital. Regenerative friendships typically are built over many years; indeed it is not unusual for them to reach back into the early days of education or working, when people are at a stage of their life when they are more ‘plastic’ about the development of relationships.


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Duped: Double Lives, False Identities, and the Con Man I Almost Married by Abby Ellin

Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Burning Man, business intelligence, Charles Lindbergh, cognitive dissonance, Donald Trump, double helix, dumpster diving, East Village, feminist movement, forensic accounting, fudge factor, hiring and firing, Internet Archive, longitudinal study, Lyft, mandatory minimum, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pink-collar, Ponzi scheme, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, telemarketer, theory of mind, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

Amy Davidson Sorkin, “Lance Armstrong’s Flawed Confession,” New Yorker, January 18, 2013, https://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/lance-armstrongs-flawed-confession. 10. Sarah Lyall, “Spies Like Us: A Conversation with John le Carré and Ben Macintyre,” New York Times, August 25, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/books/review/john-le-carre-ben-macintyre-british-spy-thrillers.html. 11. Brent W. Roberts and Wendy F. DelVecchio, “The Rank Order Consistency of Personality Traits from Childhood to Old Age, a Quantitative Review of Longitudinal Studies,” Psychological Bulletin 126, no. 1 (2000): 3–25, http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2000-03445-001. 12. Telephone interview with author. 13. Ibid. 14. Tanith Carey, “Anne Darwin, ‘Canoe Widow’: Deceiving My Sons Was Unforgiveable,” The Guardian, October 10, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/uk/canoe. 15. “500K (pounds) Recovered from Wife of Canoe Fraudster John Darwin,” Mirror, February 14, 2012, https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/500k-recovered-wife-canoe-fraudster-684683. 16.

Quentin Fotrell, “My Mother Stole My Identity and Racked Up $500,000 in Debt,” MarketWatch, October 8, 2016, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/my-mother-was-a-psychopath-who-stole-my-identity-and-racked-up-500000-in-debt-2016-10-04; “Researcher Profile: An Interview with Axton Betz Hamilton,” Journal of Financial Therapy, July 2015, http://newprairiepress.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1097&context=jft. 10. Asuman Buyukcan-Tetik, Catrin Finkenauer, Sofie Kuppens, and Kathleen D. Vohs, “Both Trust and Self-Control Are Necessary to Prevent Intrusive Behaviors: Evidence from a Longitudinal Study of Married Couples,” Journal of Family Psychology 27, no. 4 (2013): 671–676, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/a341/9ef0cc75f9f796c7328c4c611877de47e50e.pdf. 11. Alessandro Bucciol, Fabio Landini, and Marco Piovesan, “Unethical Behavior in the Field: Demographic Characteristics and Beliefs of the Cheater,” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 93 (2013): 248–257, https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejeborg/v_3a93_3ay_3a2013_3ai_3ac_3ap_3a248-257.htm. 12.


pages: 98 words: 25,753

Ethics of Big Data: Balancing Risk and Innovation by Kord Davis, Doug Patterson

4chan, business process, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, en.wikipedia.org, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, Netflix Prize, Occupy movement, performance metric, Robert Bork, side project, smart grid, urban planning

What will be considered a fair and accurate judgment of an individual’s reputation in the future? Is an individual’s complete history of actions and behaviors on the Internet useful in making hiring decisions? There are certainly some companies who think so and will provide you with that information in exchange for a fee. But even in the face of all these questions, the opportunity to extract value while reducing the risks is too tempting to ignore. Longitudinal studies in education hold the promise of helping us learn how to teach more effectively. Healthcare is running at mach speed to understand diseases and the human genome, and to improve doctor and hospital performance. Explicit ethical inquiry makes it easier to honor emerging and evolving legislation. As the law changes, understanding individual and organizational values (and how they relate to each other) and the actions they motivate will decrease the amount of time it takes to figure out how to be in compliance.


pages: 353 words: 98,267

The Price of Everything: And the Hidden Logic of Value by Eduardo Porter

Alvin Roth, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, clean water, Credit Default Swap, Deng Xiaoping, Edward Glaeser, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Ford paid five dollars a day, full employment, George Akerlof, Gordon Gekko, guest worker program, happiness index / gross national happiness, housing crisis, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jean Tirole, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, longitudinal study, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, means of production, Menlo Park, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay, new economy, New Urbanism, peer-to-peer, pension reform, Peter Singer: altruism, pets.com, placebo effect, price discrimination, price stability, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, rising living standards, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, superstar cities, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, ultimatum game, unpaid internship, urban planning, Veblen good, women in the workforce, World Values Survey, Yom Kippur War, young professional, zero-sum game

Anklesaria Aiyar, “Bhutan’s Happiness Is Large Dam, Fast GDP,” Times of India, November 1, 2009; and Ben Saul, “Cultural Nationalism, Self-Determination and Human Rights in Bhutan,” International Journal of Refugee Law, Vol. 12, No. 3, July 2000, pp. 321-353. Data on Bhutan and India’s GDP per person is drawn from International Monetary Fund statistics (www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php). Statistics on the impact of income on happiness come from Andrew Oswald and Nattavudh Powdthavee, “Does Happiness Adapt? A Longitudinal Study of Disability with Implications for Economists and Judges,” IZA Discussion Paper, July 2006; Paul Frijters, David W. Johnston, and Michael A. Shields, “Happiness Dynamics with Quarterly Life Event Data,” IZA Discussion Paper, July 2008; Gallup Organization, “About One in Six Americans Report History of Depression,” October 22, 2009 (www.gallup.com/poll/123821/One-Six-Americans-Report-History-Depression.aspx. , accessed 08/16/2010); Ronald Inglehart, Roberto Foa, Christopher Peterson, and Christian Welzel, “Development, Freedom and Rising Happiness, A Global Perspective (1981-2007),” Perspectives on Psychological Science, Vol. 3, No. 4, 2008, pp. 264-285; and Angus Deaton, “Income, Aging, Health and Wellbeing Around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 22, No. 2, Spring 2008. 64-66 What Happiness Is: Examples of the link between happiness and other measures of well-being are in: David Blanchflower and Andrew Oswald, “Hypertension and Happiness Across Nations,” Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Vol. 27, No. 2, March 2008, pp. 218-233; Daniel Kahneman and Alan B.

The data on income and happiness in Brooklyn and San Jose, California, is found in Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2006-2008 estimates (factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&_submenuId=&_lang=en&_ts= , accessed on 08/08/2010) and the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index (at www.ahiphiwire.org/wellbeing/, accessed 08/16/2010). 70-72 The Treadmill of Happiness: How happiness adapts to positive and negative shocks is discussed in Andrew Oswald and Nattavudh Powdthavee, “Does Happiness Adapt? A Longitudinal Study of Disability with Implications for Economists and Judges,” Warwick University Working Paper, July 2006; Andrew E. Clark, Ed Diener, Yannis Georgellis, and Richard E. Lucas, “Lags and Leads in Life Satisfaction: A Test of the Baseline Hypothesis,” Economic Journal, Vol. 118, June 2008, pp. F222-F243. Richard Easterlin’s finding on Americans’ stagnant happiness is in Richard Easterlin, “Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot?


pages: 347 words: 97,721

Only Humans Need Apply: Winners and Losers in the Age of Smart Machines by Thomas H. Davenport, Julia Kirby

AI winter, Andy Kessler, artificial general intelligence, asset allocation, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, business intelligence, business process, call centre, carbon-based life, Clayton Christensen, clockwork universe, commoditize, conceptual framework, dark matter, David Brooks, deliberate practice, deskilling, digital map, disruptive innovation, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, estate planning, fixed income, follow your passion, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Freestyle chess, game design, general-purpose programming language, global pandemic, Google Glasses, Hans Lippershey, haute cuisine, income inequality, index fund, industrial robot, information retrieval, intermodal, Internet of things, inventory management, Isaac Newton, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joi Ito, Khan Academy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, lifelogging, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Norbert Wiener, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, performance metric, Peter Thiel, precariat, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, social intelligence, speech recognition, spinning jenny, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, superintelligent machines, supply-chain management, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Works Progress Administration, Zipcar

Here’s what they’ve found by administering standard personality tests over the decades: College kids today are about 40 percent lower in empathy than their counterparts of twenty or thirty years ago.9 (And they’re more narcissistic, as tracked by the Narcissistic Personality Inventory over the same time frame.10) Other social scientists worry about ethics, or the “moral sense” that Charles Darwin thought was unique to humans. It is unlikely there will ever be a rigorous longitudinal study of this, and yet the perception is widespread that many parts of the world are experiencing declines. And then there is creativity. If you’re a fan of TED Talks, perhaps you saw the one that became the most viewed of the entire TED library: Sir Ken Robinson’s “How Schools Kill Creativity.” In it, Robinson argues that “[w]e don’t grow into creativity, we grow out of it. Or rather, we are educated out of it.”

The yardsticks we use to measure human achievement—our “performance metrics,” to use business parlance—always push us back to believing that more hard skills training is the answer. Yet that belief constrains us to a narrow track, and the same track we have designed computers to dominate. We are limiting ourselves to running a race we have already determined we cannot win. It might even be that our attempts to have humans keep pace with machines militate against the development of other human strengths. Psychologist David Weikart’s famous longitudinal studies of early childhood education found that preschoolers in a low-income neighborhood who were subjected to direct instruction in skills like reading and arithmetic later displayed deficits in social and emotional development vis-à-vis their counterparts in the studies whose preschool education was “play based.” Those schooled by direct instruction were, at age twenty-three, found to have more instances of friction with other people, and more evidence of emotional impairment.


pages: 435 words: 95,864

Childhood Disrupted: How Your Biography Becomes Your Biology, and How You Can Heal by Donna Jackson Nakazawa

epigenetics, fear of failure, impulse control, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI)

The risk that toxic stress will lead to neuroinflammatory diseases such as depression and anxiety disorders is, as with autoimmune disease, nearly twice as high for women as it is for men. At the University of Wisconsin, neuropsychiatrist Ryan Herringa, MD, PhD, and assistant professor of child and adolescent psychiatry, recently asked a fairly typical group of sixty-four eighteen-year-olds—who were being followed by Herringa’s colleagues in a longitudinal study known as the Wisconsin Study of Families and Work—to answer questions about the adversity they’d faced. They were asked to agree or disagree with statements such as “when I was growing up people called me things like ‘stupid,’ ‘lazy’ ”; or, “people in my family said hurtful or insulting things to me”; or, “I thought my parents wished I had never been born”; or, “I felt that someone in my family hated me,” as well as questions about more overt physical and sexual abuse and emotional neglect.

Children who had had secure attachments with loving, even-keeled parents were far better at recovering from adult conflict. They were able to manage their fear or anger before those feelings overwhelmed them—and then move on. Not surprisingly, these kids who’d had secure attachments with their mothers also had healthier love relationships and reported being a lot happier in them over the long term. In a similar longitudinal study, researchers followed Oregon families for three generations. Parents who were warm, consistent, not overreactive, and involved in their kids’ activities had a positive impact not only on how their adolescent children turned out but also on how skilled their kids were, once grown, in using positive parenting skills with their own children. Positive parenting habits, and being able to manage one’s reactivity in family life, transferred to the next generation of children and even grandchildren.


pages: 367 words: 102,188

Sleepyhead: Narcolepsy, Neuroscience and the Search for a Good Night by Henry Nicholls

A. Roger Ekirch, Donald Trump, double helix, Drosophila, global pandemic, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, placebo effect, Saturday Night Live, stem cell, web application, Yom Kippur War

It is relatively easy to see how obesity, by increasing the fat laid down in the throat, could cause sleep apnea. Is it possible that it could also work the other way round, with short sleep somehow causing obesity? Cappuccio resolved to data mine his way to a conclusion. The longitudinal study is of crucial importance, one in which data are repeatedly collected from the same individuals over the course of many years. This can help address the question of which came first, the short sleep or the obesity. A longitudinal study of young children in New Zealand was the first to indicate that it’s the short sleep that kicks things off. Cappuccio’s own data, as yet unpublished, shows much the same. ‘We are convinced that the exposure to short sleep precedes obesity,’ he says. In the context of sleep apnea and narcolepsy, we have already seen how disrupting sleep can have unhealthy consequences for metabolism.


pages: 387 words: 99,158

Period Repair Manual, Second Edition: Natural Treatment for Better Hormones and Better Periods by Lara Briden, Jerilynn Prior

crowdsourcing, en.wikipedia.org, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, stem cell

PubMed PMID: 27671339 39: http://www.acog.org/Patients/FAQs/Fertility-Awareness-Based-Methods-of-Family-Planning 40: Frank-Herrmann P, Heil J, Gnoth C, Toledo E, Baur S, Pyper C, et al. The effectiveness of a fertility awareness based method to avoid pregnancy in relation to a couple's sexual behaviour during the fertile time: a prospective longitudinal study. Hum Reprod. 2007 May;22(5):1310-9. PubMed PMID: 17314078 41: Frank-Herrmann P, Heil J, Gnoth C, Toledo E, Baur S, Pyper C, et al. The effectiveness of a fertility awareness based method to avoid pregnancy in relation to a couple's sexual behaviour during the fertile time: a prospective longitudinal study. Hum Reprod. 2007 May;22(5):1310-9. PubMed PMID: 17314078 42: https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/contraception/index.htm 43: https://daysy.me/accuracy/ 44: Personal communication with Dr. Jerilynn Prior. 45: https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/contraception/index.htm 46: https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/contraception/index.htm 47: https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/contraception/index.htm 48: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FemCap 49: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/features/the-best-contraception-is-an-iud-why-i-love-having-a-coil-9578198.html 50: Foster DG, Karasek D, Grossman D, Darney P, Schwarz EB.


pages: 339 words: 95,988

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner

airport security, Broken windows theory, crack epidemic, desegregation, Exxon Valdez, feminist movement, George Akerlof, information asymmetry, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, longitudinal study, mental accounting, moral hazard, More Guns, Less Crime, oil shale / tar sands, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, pets.com, profit maximization, Richard Thaler, school choice, sensible shoes, Steven Pinker, Ted Kaczynski, The Chicago School, The Market for Lemons, Thorstein Veblen, twin studies, War on Poverty

This paper takes advantage of a new trove of government data that helps reliably address the black-white gap. Perhaps more interestingly, the data do a nice job of answering the question that every parent—black, white, and otherwise—wants to ask: what are the factors that do and do not affect a child’s performance in the early school years? In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Education undertook a monumental project called the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study. The ECLS sought to measure the academic progress of more than twenty thousand children from kindergarten through the fifth grade. The subjects were chosen from across the country to represent an accurate cross section of American schoolchildren. The ECLS measured the students’ academic performance and gathered typical survey information about each child: his or her race, gender, family structure, socioeconomic status, the level of his or her parents’ education, and so on.

Dinkins, David discrimination age detection and analysis of ethnic and religious gender information-based racial taste-based unfashionable DNA sampling doctors dogs Donohue, John Douglas, Kirk Dresden, Germany drug dealers African Americans as Colombian connection of daily life of incentives of income of living with mothers by organization and hierarchy of recordkeeping of risks of turf wars of weapons of drugs: guns and homicide and in sports see also crack cocaine; drug dealers; heroin Duggan, W. Dennis Dukakis, Michael Duke, Dan Duke, David Duncan, Arne DuPont Dymally, Mervyn Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS) econometrics “Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang’s Finances, An” (Levitt and Venkatesh) economics: behavioral black culture and classical definitions of “identity” in incentives and morality vs. science of measurement and tools of unorthodox approach to see also money “Economics of ‘Acting White,’ The” (Fryer) “Economics of Sexuality, The” (Francis) Economist economists voting and economy: global of 1990s strength of education early childhood parental see also schools; testing Education Department, U.S.


The Winner-Take-All Society: Why the Few at the Top Get So Much More Than the Rest of Us by Robert H. Frank, Philip J. Cook

accounting loophole / creative accounting, air freight, Alvin Roth, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, business cycle, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, global village, haute couture, income inequality, invisible hand, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, Marshall McLuhan, medical malpractice, Network effects, positional goods, prisoner's dilemma, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Shoshana Zuboff, Stephen Hawking, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, winner-take-all economy

The author notes: "The dominance of the Ivy League is, if any­ thing, increasing: Whereas 1 4 percent of the former CEOs surveyed hold Ivy League undergraduate degrees, nearly 19 percent of the cur­ rent CEOs dO. "17 Of course, only relatively few alumni from any school, elite or oth­ erwise, become CEOs of Fortune 500 companies. But taken as a whole, graduates of elite schools are much more successful in the labor market than are graduates of other colleges and universities. This is no surprise, given that students at elite schools are selected for many personal qualities that also predict success on the job. The best evidence of the value of an elite degree comes from an un­ usually rich data set, the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, which followed this cohort through 1 986. Econ- The Battle/or Educational Prestige 153 omist Estelle James and her coauthors report their analysis of a sample of males who had graduated from college and who worked for an em­ ployer in 1 985. The authors found that even after controlling for the individual worker's academic performance, the overall selectivity of his alma mater ( as measured by average SAT scores of its freshman class) had a considerable effect-each additional one hundred points of average combined SAT scores increased earnings by about 4 per­ cent.

., 64 Moss, Kate, 78 Motorola Corporation, 7 1 MS-DOS, 27, 33 Murnane, Richard, 87, 94 Murphy, Eddie, 74 Music industry, 2, 24-25, 40, 45, 88, 1 10, 1 1 3-1 14 National Association of Inter­ collegiate Athletics (NAIA) , 135 National Basketball Association (NBA), 8 1 , 104, 168, 169 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) , 79, 135-137, 1 68, 270 268 Index National Football League (NFL), 10, 3 1 , 81-82, 168, 169 National holidays, 143, 228 National Industrial Conference Board, l72 National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, 1 52-153 National Science Foundation (NSF) graduate fellowships, 28, 151 Nattiv, Aurelia, 133 Natural Born Killers (film), 190 Navratilova, Martina, 39 Network economies, 33-34, 36 New American Library, 64 New England Auto Racing Association (NEARA), 226 New Yorker, 205-206 New York Times, 78, 205 New York Trines Book Review, 34, 65, 1 4 1 Nicklaus, Jack, 3 9 Nobel Prizes, 28, 150 Nonprofit organizations, 91 Norman, Greg, 39 North Carolina State University, 79, 135 Northwestern University, 129-130, 152 Notre Dame University, 79, 137 Novak, Robert, 1 97 Nuclear reactor technology, 27, 35 Nystrom, Paul H., 77 Ober, Eric, 77 Observable talent differences, 1 14-1 15 Olympic Garnes, 17, 29, 56, 133, 134 On-campus recruiting, 156-158 Organized crime, 26, 3 1 Overconfidence, 8, 103-106 Overcrowding, 8, 2 1 , 10 1-123 Overtime laws, 143, 228 Paar, Jack, 139 Palmer, Arnold, 39 Patterson, Thomas, 1 96 Pay determination, social comparisons in, 58-59, 7 1-72 Pelican Bdef, The (Grisham), 65 Pennzoil, 3 1 People magazine, 204-205 Performance enhancement, 127- 128, 130-134, 1 44-146 Perfume advertisements, 176 Persian Gulf war, 48-49, 51 Peugeot, 33 Philip Morris companies, 1 4 1 , 142 Phillips, EGnstie, 132, 146 Piece-rate pay schemes, 172-173 Pine, Joseph, 47 Pitino, Rick, 79 Political commentary, 1 96-197, 203 Political parties, 30 Portrait 0/Dr.


Free Money for All: A Basic Income Guarantee Solution for the Twenty-First Century by Mark Walker

3D printing, 8-hour work day, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, commoditize, financial independence, full employment, happiness index / gross national happiness, industrial robot, intangible asset, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, laissez-faire capitalism, longitudinal study, market clearing, means of production, new economy, obamacare, off grid, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, profit motive, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, RFID, Rodney Brooks, Rosa Parks, science of happiness, Silicon Valley, surplus humans, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, transaction costs, universal basic income, working poor

As we have noted, both Easterlin and his critics would agree that the utilitarian should redistribute (other things being equal). So, we do not need to sort out this controversy to see that empirical research supports the case for BIG. Causation and Happiness We noted above that most social science data works with correlational data between income and happiness; very little addresses the issue of causality. One way to sort out the issue of causality is with longitudinal studies. Longitudinal studies, as the name suggests, typically sample a population over time. If we have two correlated variables X and Y, and we are not sure which is the cause and which is the effect, we look to see whether one precedes the other in time. If X causes Y, then X should be present earlier than Y. Conversely, if Y causes X, then Y should be apparent earlier than X. To illustrate, consider a study by Ed Diener and his colleagues.32 The study assessed the cheerfulness of college freshman and their income 19 years later.


pages: 130 words: 32,279

Beyond the 4% Rule: The Science of Retirement Portfolios That Last a Lifetime by Abraham Okusanya

asset allocation, diversification, diversified portfolio, high net worth, longitudinal study, market design, mental accounting, Paul Samuelson, quantitative easing, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, transaction costs

The trouble is, for the majority of people, this idea of U-shaped spending in retirement is just a big fat myth. For some time, researchers have identified an important phenomenon known as the saving puzzle. Older people keep saving once they’ve retired and the amount increases with age! Fig. 30: The U-shaped spending path in retirement Dr Brancati and her colleagues at the International Longevity Center – UK analysed two large datasets, the Living Costs and Food Survey and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. They wanted to gain insight into the older population’s income and expenditure patterns. Their findings are in a paper called Understanding Retirement Journeys: Expectations vs reality18. The researchers note the absence of the U-shaped spending in retirement. ‘Our findings suggest that typical consumption in retirement does not follow a U-shaped path – consumption does not dramatically rise at the start of retirement or pick up towards the end of life to meet long-term care-related expenditures.


pages: 139 words: 33,246

Money Moments: Simple Steps to Financial Well-Being by Jason Butler

Albert Einstein, asset allocation, buy and hold, Cass Sunstein, diversified portfolio, estate planning, financial independence, fixed income, happiness index / gross national happiness, index fund, intangible asset, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, mortgage debt, passive income, placebo effect, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Steve Jobs, time value of money, traffic fines, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Vanguard fund, Yogi Berra

., “Broken Limits to Life Expectancy”, Science 296 (5570) (2002): 1029-31. 43Financial Well-being Podcast: Redefining “Goals” With Carl Richards (9/03/17) http://www.financialwell-being.co.uk/2017/03/09/episode-15-redefining-goals-with-carl-richards/ (accessed 22.09.17) 44Rohwedder, Susann, and Robert J. Willis. 2010. “Mental Retirement”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(1): 119-38. 45Wu C, Odden MC, Fisher GG, et al “Association of retirement age with mortality: a population-based longitudinal study among older adults in the USA”, J Epidemiol Community Health 2016;70:917-923. http://jech.bmj.com/content/70/9/917 (accessed 20.10.17) 46Demographic Components of Future Population Growth: 2015 Revision, United Nations http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/trends/dem-comp-change.shtml (accessed 06.11.17) 47Gratton, Lynda., and Andrew Scott. The 100-Year Life, Bloomsbury, 2016, p2 48Bogle, John, C.


pages: 375 words: 105,067

Pound Foolish: Exposing the Dark Side of the Personal Finance Industry by Helaine Olen

American ideology, asset allocation, Bernie Madoff, buy and hold, Cass Sunstein, Credit Default Swap, David Brooks, delayed gratification, diversification, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Elliott wave, en.wikipedia.org, estate planning, financial innovation, Flash crash, game design, greed is good, high net worth, impulse control, income inequality, index fund, London Whale, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, money market fund, mortgage debt, oil shock, payday loans, pension reform, Ponzi scheme, post-work, quantitative easing, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, random walk, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Stanford marshmallow experiment, stocks for the long run, too big to fail, transaction costs, Unsafe at Any Speed, upwardly mobile, Vanguard fund, wage slave, women in the workforce, working poor, éminence grise

But is it really reasonable to think that even if financial literacy is woven into the entirety of a student’s existence, they will be able and willing to comprehend a hundred-page mortgage contract twenty years down the road, when they’re worn down with other life concerns like work, marriage, and family, and may not have been interested in the subject from the get-go? There is, however, a tiny bit of support for the movement. A longitudinal study at the University of Arizona has found that students exposed to financial literacy do show an increase in both fiscal smarts and good savings habits. But before you make too much of this survey, it’s worth noting that, for one, it is just about the only such finding ever; second, almost 30 percent of the original subjects did not participate in the second wave of the study; and third, like any survey, the results were based on self-reporting, and given the subject it’s possible some students were too embarrassed to admit to less-than-ideal financial behaviors.

Lew Mandell: author interview. 208 Charles Schwab: “2011 Teens & Money Survey Findings,” Charles Schwab, http://www.aboutschwab.com/images/press/teensmoneyfactsheet.pdf. In a 2011 interview, Olivia Mitchell fessed up: “Knowledge@Wharton High School, Olivia Mitchell on Why Young Consumers Should Just Say No to Spending,” March 3, 2011, http://kwhs.wharton.upenn.edu/2011/03/olivia-mitchell-on-why-young-consumers-should-just-say-no-to-spending. A longitudinal study at the University of Arizona: “Young Adults’ Financial Capability: APlus Arizona Pathways to Success for University Students, Wave 2,” the University of Arizona, September, 2011, http://aplus.arizona.edu/Wave-2-Report.pdf. In 2003, Target Financial Services contacted tens of thousands of borrowers: Amy Brown and Kimberly Gartner, “Early Intervention and Credit Cardholders: Results of Efforts to Provide Online Financial Education to New-to-Credit and At-Risk Consumers,” Center for Financial Services Innovation, January 2007, http://cfsinnovation.com/system/files/imported/managed_documents/earlyintervention.pdf.


pages: 605 words: 110,673

Drugs Without the Hot Air by David Nutt

British Empire, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral panic, offshore financial centre, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, Robert Gordon, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), War on Poverty

.• For sources see Wikipedia, URL-31. 5 we ought to think of drug addiction as a special form of behavioural addiction• Problem Gambling and Other Behavioural Addictions, Jim Orford, in Drugs and the Future: Brain Science, Addiction and Society, David Nutt et al, Elsevier, 2007 6 different neurotransmitters are believed to be involved in these “push” and “pull” factors• Which neurotransmitters are involved is still a subject of research. 7 Korean couple who let their baby starve to death• Girl starved to death while parents raised virtual child in online game, URL-168, the Guardian, March 5th, 2010 8 alcoholics have fewer dopamine receptors than their non-alcoholic relatives• Overexpression of dopamine D2 receptors reduces alcohol self-administration, Panayotis K Thanos, Nora D Volkow, et al, Journal of Neurochemistry (78), 2001 9 tests on rats that have been made addicted to alcohol• As above. 10 high-status monkeys have more dopamine receptors than low-status monkeys• Characterising organism x environment interactions in non-human primate models of addiction: PET imaging studies of D2 receptors, Michael Nader et al, in The Neurobiology of Addiction, Oxford University Press, 2010 11 amphetamine releases endorphins• Stimulation of endorphin neurotransmission in the nucleus accumbens by ethanol, cocaine, and amphetamine, Foster Olive et al, Journal of Neuroscience 21 (1), 2001 12 if you use ketamine about once a month, an effective dose could be as little as 20 mg, whereas if you use it daily you might eventually need to take 200mg to feel any effect at all• Ketamine: a scientific review, Celia Morgan and Valeria Curran, ISCD, September 15th 2010 13 Sensitisation can be seen in behavioural addictions such as gambling• Problem Gambling and Other Behavioural Addictions, Jim Orford, in Drugs and the Future: Brain Science, Addiction and Society, Nutt et al, Elsevier, 2007 14 addiction starts as pleasure seeking, but when withdrawal kicks in, the main drive becomes reducing the suffering of withdrawal• Problem Gambling and Other Behavioural Addictions, Jim Orford, in Drugs and the Future: Brain Science, Addiction and Society, David Nutt et al, Elsevier, 2007 15 Danish studies that have shown that the sons of alcoholic fathers• The Danish longitudinal study of alcoholism 1978–2008, Joachim Knop, Danish Medical Bulletin, (58) 8, 2011 16 The enzyme that clears nicotine from the body has two versions• Genetic variability in CYP2A6 and the pharmacokinetics of nicotine, JC Mwenifumbo and RF Tyndale, Pharmacogenomics 8(10), October 2007 17 male children of male alcoholics have alterations in GABA receptors that make them less sensitive to alcohol• Reactions to Alcohol in Sons of Alcoholics and Controls, Marc Schuckit, Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research 12, 1988 18 High opioid receptor levels in the brain also predict drug use and craving for opiates• Brain opioid receptor binding in early abstinence from opioid dependence, Tim Williams et al, British Journal of Psychiatry (191), 2007 19 if mothers use drugs while pregnant, their children may be more likely to become addicted to those same drugs in later life• Drugs and the Future: Brain Science, Addiction and Society, David Nutt et al, Elsevier, 2007 20 “neuroimaging”• Brain imaging in addiction, David Nutt, Anne Lingford-Hughes and Liam Nestor in Addiction Neuroethics, Elsevier, 2012 21 PET camera• which is in fact a “scintillation counter”. 9 Can addiction be cured?

Addiction isn’t a single transient event like a fractured bone or a chest infection, which can be “cured”, in the sense that you will be no more prone to problems in the future than if it hadn’t happened. Addiction is best thought of as a chronic recurring illness, like diabetes or asthma, where lifelong treatment is required. Once you’ve had an addiction you’re always at greater risk of returning to it than those who have never been addicted, because you have an underlying vulnerability and your brain has changed as a result of repeated drug use. Longitudinal studies show lifetime relapse rates similar to asthma, diabetes or hypertension 13(Figure 9.5). As with these illnesses, relapse shouldn’t be seen as a moral “failure”. Instead, the most helpful attitude seems to be to re-evaluate the treatment model and maybe try something new. There is no “one size fits all” model of treatment, because addiction has a great many different causes and all people are different.


pages: 406 words: 109,794

Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World by David Epstein

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Atul Gawande, Checklist Manifesto, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, clockwork universe, cognitive bias, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, Exxon Valdez, Flynn Effect, Freestyle chess, functional fixedness, game design, Isaac Newton, Johannes Kepler, knowledge economy, lateral thinking, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Mark Zuckerberg, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, Netflix Prize, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, precision agriculture, prediction markets, premature optimization, pre–internet, random walk, randomized controlled trial, retrograde motion, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Silicon Valley, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, Walter Mischel, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Y Combinator, young professional

., “Making It to the Top in Team Sports: Start Later, Intensify, and Be Determined!,” Talent Development and Excellence 5, no. 2 (2013): 85–100; M. Hornig et al., “Practice and Play in the Development of German Top-Level Professional Football Players,” European Journal of Sport Science 16, no. 1 (2016): 96–105 (epub ahead of print, 2014); A. Güllich et al., “Sport Activities Differentiating Match-Play Improvement in Elite Youth Footballers—A 2-Year Longitudinal Study,” Journal of Sports Sciences 35, no. 3 (2017): 207–15 (epub ahead of print, 2016); A. Güllich, “International Medallists’ and Non-medallists’ Developmental Sport Activities—A Matched-Pairs Analysis,” Journal of Sports Sciences 35, no. 23 (2017): 2281–88; J. Gulbin et al., “Patterns of Performance Development in Elite Athletes,” European Journal of Sport Science 13, no. 6 (2013): 605–14; J.

Simon, “Perception in Chess,” Cognitive Psychology 4 (1973): 55–81. if rigorous training had not begun by age twelve: F. Gobet and G. Campitelli, “The Role of Domain-Specific Practice, Handedness, and Starting Age in Chess,” Developmental Psychology 43 (2007): 159–72. For the different rates at which individuals progress, see: G. Campitelli and F. Gobet, “The Role of Practice in Chess: A Longitudinal Study,” Learning and Individual Differences 18, no. 4 (2007): 446–58. Treffert studied savants: Treffert shared with me videos from his library of documentation on savants. His book Islands of Genius (London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers, 2012) is a great account of his research. “What I heard seemed so unlikely”: A. Ockelford, “Another Exceptional Musical Memory,” in Music and the Mind, ed.


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The Meritocracy Myth by Stephen J. McNamee

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American ideology, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, business cycle, collective bargaining, computer age, conceptual framework, corporate governance, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, deskilling, equal pay for equal work, estate planning, failed state, fixed income, gender pay gap, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, helicopter parent, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, job automation, joint-stock company, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low-wage service sector, marginal employment, Mark Zuckerberg, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, New Urbanism, obamacare, occupational segregation, old-boy network, pink-collar, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, post-industrial society, prediction markets, profit motive, race to the bottom, random walk, school choice, Scientific racism, Steve Jobs, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, upwardly mobile, We are the 99%, white flight, young professional

Legacy of Aging: Inheritance and Disinheritance in Social Perspective. Norwood, NJ: ABLEX. Rosenfeld, Michael J. 2008. “Racial, Educational and Religious Endogamy in the United States: A Comparative Historical Perspective.” Social Forces 87, no. 1: 1–31. Salverda, Weimer, Brian Nolan, and Timothy M. Smeeding, eds. 2009. Oxford Handbook of Economic Inequality. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Sauls, Adam. 2012. A Longitudinal Study of American Economic Elites. Unpublished MA thesis, University of North Carolina Wilmington. Schervish, Paul G., Platon E. Coutsoukis, and Ethan Lewis. 1994. Gospels of Wealth: How the Rich Portray Their Lives. Westport, CT: Praeger. Schnittker, Jason. 2008. “Diagnosing Our National Disease: Trends in Income and Happiness, 1973 to 2004.” Social Psychology Quarterly 71, no. 3: 257–80. Schwartz, Christine, and Robert D.

Consistent with the Matthew effect described earlier, the first full-time job after completion of formal education matters for future mobility since first jobs set career trajectories. Getting started on a branch higher up the tree in the first place will likely put one higher up from the ground at the end. The best way to document the effects of cohort differences on mobility chances is to conduct a longitudinal study of different cohorts entering the labor force at different times and follow the careers and work histories of individuals in those cohorts over time. In a comprehensive analysis of this type, Annette Bernhardt and her colleagues (2001) followed two cohorts of white males. They traced career paths of the first cohort that entered the labor force in the mid-1960s and followed it through the end of the 1970s to the early 1980s.


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The End of Illness by David B. Agus

Danny Hillis, discovery of penicillin, double helix, epigenetics, germ theory of disease, Google Earth, impulse control, information retrieval, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Murray Gell-Mann, pattern recognition, Pepto Bismol, personalized medicine, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, Steve Jobs, the scientific method

In a nutshell, it shows that having a “low cardiorespiratory fitness,” or low CRF, which is really code for being out of shape, accounts for a greater proportion of deaths than any of the other conditions listed, including obesity, diabetes, or high cholesterol, and it even beats out the smoker. Hypertension in men is the only condition that comes close to the ravages of low fitness. Attributable fractions (%) for all-cause deaths in 40,842 (3,333 deaths) men and 12,943 (491 deaths) women in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. The attributable fractions are adjusted for age and each other item in the figure.* Cardiorespiratory fitness determined by a maximal exercise test on a treadmill. Source: S.N. Blair et al. A tribute to Professor Jeremiah Morris: the man who invented the field of physical activity epidemiology. Annals of Epidemiology, 20, no. 9 (September 2010): 651–60. Reprinted with permission. Even people who just break up their sitting time by walking around with a free weight to perform a few biceps curls can lower their risk of disease and premature death.

Lancet 376, no. 9736 (July 17, 2010): 180–88. Epub June 10, 2010. Zhang, W., et al. Index to ring finger length ratio and the risk of osteoarthritis. Arthritis & Rheumatism 58, no. 1 (January 2008): 137–44. Index AARP Diet and Health Study, 170 abdominal aneurysm, 72, 80 Accelerate Brain Cancer Cure (ABC2), 87 acetylsalicylic acid. See aspirin adenine, 69 aerobics, 224 Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study, 233 age/aging aspirin and, 63 human growth hormone and, 48–49 immune system and, 209 inflammation and, 47, 196 mitochondria and, 228–29 need for understanding of, 294–95 Nun Study and, 205 oxidation and, 156, 160–61 physical activity and, 213, 224, 227–29 search for master switch and, 294–301 self-knowledge and, 122 sleep and, 248, 253 stalling or slowing down, 228–29 statins and, 61 technologies and, 228 vitamin D and, 141, 142 weight and, 227–28 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, 171 AIDS, statistics about death and, 26 alcohol, 87, 249 alleles, 101–2 allergies, 17, 133, 196 Alzheimer’s disease, 11, 47, 72, 76–77, 79, 121, 156, 196, 204, 205, 206–8, 227, 260 American Academy of Sleep Medicine, 253 American Association for Cancer Research, 28 American Cancer Society, 230 American College of Cardiology, 211 American Heart Association, 211 American Journal of Epidemiology, physical activity study article in, 230 amino acids, 105, 106, 109 amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS, Lou Gehrig’s disease), 121 Annals of Epidemiology, 225 Anson, George, 150 antibiotics, 26, 29, 298–99 antioxidants anti of, 159–62 cancer and, 201 definition of, 159–60, 165–66 food as source for, 178 hype and data about, 162–64, 167–70, 175–76 inflammation and, 201 as panacea, 160–61 vitamin C and, 156–57 See also specific antioxidant antivirals, statistics about death and, 26 anxiety disorders, in children, 252–53 aortic aneurysm, 72 APOE gene, 76–77 appetite, Personal Inventory Questionnaire and, 17 Applied Proteomics, 9, 99, 111, 112, 114 apps, 64–66 Archives of General Psychiatry, 253 Arizona State University, 114 Armstrong, Lance, 89–90, 91, 93 arthritis, inflammation and, 196 Arthritis & Rheumatism journal, 130 ascorbic acid.


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The Telomere Effect: A Revolutionary Approach to Living Younger, Healthier, Longer by Dr. Elizabeth Blackburn, Dr. Elissa Epel

Albert Einstein, epigenetics, impulse control, income inequality, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, phenotype, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell, survivorship bias, The Spirit Level, twin studies

Oikawa, “Mechanism of Telomere Shortening by Oxidative Stress,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1019 (June 2004): 278–84. 12. Haendeler, J., et al., “Hydrogen Peroxide Triggers Nuclear Export of Telomerase Reverse Transcriptase via Src Kinase Familiy-Dependent Phosphorylation of Tyrosine 707,” Molecular and Cellular Biology 23, no. 13 (July 2003): 4598–610. 13. Adelfalk, C., et al., “Accelerated Telomere Shortening in Fanconi Anemia Fibroblasts—a Longitudinal Study,” FEBS Letters 506, no. 1 (September 28, 2001): 22–26. 14. Xu, Q., et al., “Multivitamin Use and Telomere Length in Women,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 89, no. 6 (June 2009): 1857–63, doi:10.3945/ajcn.2008.26986, epub March 11, 2009. 15. Paul, L., et al., “High Plasma Folate Is Negatively Associated with Leukocyte Telomere Length in Framingham Offspring Cohort,” European Journal of Nutrition 54, no. 2 (March 2015): 235–41, doi:10.1007/s00394-014-0704-1. 16.

., “Orphans’ Lonely Beginnings Reveal How Parents Shape a Child’s Brain,” National Public Radio, February 24, 2014, http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2014/02/20/280237833/orphans-lonely-beginnings-reveal-how-parents-shape-a-childs-brain, accessed October 15, 2015. 8. Powell, A., “Breathtakingly Awful,” Harvard Gazette, October 5, 2010, http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2010/10/breathtakingly-awful/, accessed October 26, 2015. 9. Authors’ interview with Charles Nelson, September 18, 2015. 10. Shalev, I., et al., “Exposure to Violence During Childhood Is Associated with Telomere Erosion from 5 to 10 Years of Age: A Longitudinal Study,” Molecular Psychiatry 18, no. 5 (May 2013): 576–81, doi:10.1038/mp.2012.32. 11. Price, L. H., et al., “Telomeres and Early-Life Stress: An Overview,” Biological Psychiatry 73, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 15–23, doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2012.06.025. 12. Révész, D., Y. Milaneschi, E. M. Terpstra, and B. W. J. H. Penninx, “Baseline Biopsychosocial Determinants of Telomere Length and 6-Year Attrition Rate,” Psychoneuroendocrinology 67 (May 2016): 153–62, doi:10.1016/j.psyneuen.2016.02.007. 13.


A Brief History of Everyone Who Ever Lived by Adam Rutherford

23andMe, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, bioinformatics, British Empire, colonial rule, dark matter, delayed gratification, demographic transition, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, Google Earth, Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, phenotype, sceptred isle, theory of mind, Thomas Malthus, twin studies

One frequently cited study concerns the population of the rural Swedish district of Överkalix, which over the last century or so has been subject to highly variable harvests. Life expectancy was significantly raised in men whose grandfathers had endured a failed crop season just before puberty: they had acquired something due to starvation, and passed it on. A similar result from Bristol scientists using a huge dataset called the Avon Longitudinal Study – the gold standard of transgenerational research – showed that men who smoked before puberty sired fatter sons than those who smoked after. Again, something was apparently being acquired and passed on. These results are complex, perplexing, but possibly slight, and demand more work and greater examination. Science is unfortunately prone to fashion, and many scientists are intrigued but anxious that the scrutiny being applied to the studies of transgenerational epigenetics are not robust enough to justify the fanfare.

., ‘Genetic background of extreme violent behavior’, Journal of Molecular Psychiatry 20: 6 (2015), 786–92 Hogenboom, Melissa, ‘Two genes linked with violent crime’, BBC Online (28 October 2014) On Adam Lanza Kolata, Gina, ‘Seeking Answers in Genome of Gunman’, New York Times (24 December 2012) Etchells, Peter J., et al., ‘Prospective Investigation of Video Game Use in Children and Subsequent Conduct Disorder and Depression Using Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children’, PLOS ONE 11: 1 (2016) Myers, P.Z., ‘Fishing for meaning in a dictionary of genes’, Pharyngula (27 December 2012) The Hongerwinter Banning, C., ‘Food Shortage and Public Health, First Half of 1945’, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 245: The Netherlands during German Occupation (May 1946), 93–110 Stein, A.D. and Lumey, L.H., ‘The relationship between maternal and offspring birth weights after maternal prenatal famine exposure: the Dutch Famine Birth Cohort Study’, American Journal of Human Biology 72: 4 (2000), 641–54 Kaati, G., et al., ‘Cardiovascular and diabetes mortality determined by nutrition during parents’ and grandparents’ slow growth period’, European Journal of Human Genetics 10: 11 (2002), 682–8 Pembrey, Marcus, et al., ‘Human transgenerational responses to early-life experience: potential impact on development, health and biomedical research’, Journal of Medical Genetics 51: 9 (2014), 563–72 Chopra, Deepak and Tanzi, Rudolph, ‘You Can Transform Your Own Biology’, www.chopra.com/ccl/you-can-transform-your-own-biology Chapter 7: A short introduction to the future of humankind Fu, W., O’Connor, T.D., et al., ‘Analysis of 6,515 exomes reveals the recent origin of most human protein-coding variants’, Nature 493 (2013), 216–20 Pandit, Jaideep J., et al., ‘A hypothesis to explain the high prevalence of pseudo-cholinesterase deficiency in specific population groups’, European Journal of Anaesthesiology 28 (2011), 550 Reich, D., et al., ‘Reconstructing Indian population history’, Nature 461 (2009), 489–94 Moorjani, Priya, et al., ‘Genetic Evidence for Recent Population Mixture in India’, The American Journal of Human Genetics 93: 3 (2013), 422–38 Bolund, Elisabeth, et al., ‘Effects of the demographic transition on the genetic variances and covariances of human life-history traits’, Evolution 69 (2015), 747–55 Rolshausen, Gregor, et al., ‘Contemporary Evolution of Reproductive Isolation and Phenotypic Divergence in Sympatry along a Migratory Divide’, Current Biology 19: 24 (2009), 2097–101 Excerpt from Eliot, T.S., ‘Little Gidding’ from Four Quartets (Faber and Faber, 1942).


Blueprint: The Evolutionary Origins of a Good Society by Nicholas A. Christakis

agricultural Revolution, Alfred Russel Wallace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, assortative mating, Cass Sunstein, crowdsourcing, David Attenborough, different worldview, disruptive innovation, double helix, epigenetics, experimental economics, experimental subject, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, invention of writing, iterative process, job satisfaction, Joi Ito, joint-stock company, land tenure, Laplace demon, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, out of africa, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, placebo effect, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, replication crisis, Rubik’s Cube, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, social web, stem cell, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, twin studies, ultimatum game, zero-sum game

The children, who ranged in age from two to five years old, were observed every day for several months playing for prolonged periods without adult supervision in an area near the beach (a spot with “strong surf” and “sharp lava-rock walls” as well as “machetes, axes, and matches” nearby for good measure). They “organized activities, settled disputes, avoided danger, dealt with injuries, distributed goods, and negotiated contact with passing others—without adult intervention.”2 A more systematic set of landmark longitudinal studies of play in places around the world (Nyansongo, Kenya; Khalapur, India; Juxtlahuaca, Mexico; Tarong, Philippines; Taira, Japan; and “Orchard Town,” a pseudonym for a town in New England), spearheaded by anthropologists Beatrice and John Whiting and their colleagues from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, concluded that, while there was much notable variation by gender, age, and culture in children’s typical companions, activities, toys, and venues for play, children’s social behavior and interaction styles while playing were always extremely similar.3 Societies themselves might even be seen as just scaled-up versions of such children’s games.

Angrist, “Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records,” American Economic Review 80 (1990): 313–336. Similar natural experiments have taken advantage of people winning monetary lotteries to evaluate the link between wealth and health, trying to sort out whether wealthy people become healthy, or healthy people become wealthy (it’s both). J. Gardner and A. J. Oswald, “Money and Mental Wellbeing: A Longitudinal Study of Medium-Sized Lottery Wins,” Journal of Health Economics 26 (2007): 49–60. 12. A. Banerjee and L. Iyer, “Colonial Land Tenure, Electoral Competition, and Public Goods in India,” in J. Diamond and J. A. Robinson, eds., Natural Experiments of History (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2010), pp. 185–220. 13. D. Acemoglu, D. Cantoni, S. Johnson, and J. A. Robinson, “From Ancien Régime to Capitalism: The Spread of the French Revolution as a Natural Experiment,” in J.

Homophily evolves under a much wider variety of conditions than heterophily, even when the fitness advantage to dissimilarity exceeds the fitness advantage to similarity. F. Fu, M. A. Nowak, N. A. Christakis, and J. H. Fowler, “The Evolution of Homophily,” Scientific Reports 2 (2012): 845. 36. Christakis and Fowler, “Friendship and Natural Selection.” See also B. W. Domingue, D. W. Belsky, J. M. Fletcher, D. Conley, J. D. Boardman, and K. M. Harris, “The Social Genome of Friends and Schoolmates in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health,” PNAS: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (2018): 702–707; and J. H. Fowler, J. E. Settle, and N. A. Christakis, “Correlated Genotypes in Friendship Networks,” PNAS: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108 (2011): 1993–1997. 37. A one-standard-deviation change in the friendship score can explain approximately 1.4 percent of the variance in the existence of friendship ties.


he Wisdom of Menopause (Revised Edition) by Northrup, Christiane

epigenetics, financial independence, Kickstarter, life extension, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), stem cell, women in the workforce

Cardiac index is associated with brain aging: The Framingham heart study. Circulation, 122, 690–697; Jefferson, A. L. (2010). Cardiac output as a potential risk factor for abnormal brain aging. Journal of Alzheimer’s Disease, 20, 813–821. 41. Baldereschi, M., et al. (1998). Estrogen replacement therapy and Alzheimer’s disease in the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging. Neurology, 50, 996–1002; Kawas, C., et al. (1997). A prospective study of estrogen replacement therapy and the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease: The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. Neurology, 48, 1517–1521; Paganini-Hill, A., & Henderson, V. W. (1996). Estrogen replacement therapy and risk of Alzheimer’s disease. Arch Intern Med, 156 (19), 2213–2217; Tang, M. X., et al. (1996). Effect of oestrogen during menopause on risk and age at onset of Alzheimer’s disease.

Maturitas, 14, 103; Treloar, A. E., et al. (1981). Menstrual cyclicity and the perimenopause. Maturitas, 3, 249. 3. Munster, K., et al. (1992). Length and variation in the menstrual cycle—a cross-sectional study from a Danish county. Br J Obstet Gynecol, 99 (5), 422; Collett, M. E., et al. (1954). The effect of age upon the pattern of the menstrual cycle. Fertil Steril, 5, 437. 4. Rannevik, G. (1995). A longitudinal study of the perimenopausal transition: Altered profiles of steroid and pituitary hormones, SHBG and bone mineral density. Maturitas, 21, 103. 5. Coulam, C. B., Adamson, S. C., & Annegers, J. F. (1986). Incidence of premature ovarian failure. Am J Obstet Gynecol, 67 (4), 604–606; Miyake, T., et al. (1988). Acute oocyte loss in experimental autoimmune oophoritis as a possible model of premature ovarian failure.

Cephaloconiosis: A free radical perspective on the proposed particulate-induced etiopathogenesis of Alzheimer’s dementia and related disorders. Med Hypotheses, 34 (3), 209–219. 32. Freedman, M., et al. (1984). Computerized axial tomography in aging. In M. L. L. Albert (ed.), Clinical Neurology of Aging. New York: Oxford University Press; Lehr, J., & Schmitz-Scherzer, R. (1976). Survivors and nonsurvivors: Two fundamental patterns of aging. In H. Thomae (ed.), Patterns of Aging: Findings from the Bonn Longitudinal Study of Aging. Basel: S. Karger; Benton, M. L., et al. (1981). Normative observations on neuropsychological test performance in old age. J Clin Neuropsychiatry, 3, 33–42. 33. Boyle, P. A., et al. (2010). Effect of a purpose in life on risk of incident Alzheimer disease and mild cognitive impairment in community-dwelling older persons. Arch Gen Psychiatry, 67 (3), 304–310. 34. De Meyer, G., et al. (2010).


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The Diet Myth: The Real Science Behind What We Eat by Tim Spector

biofilm, British Empire, Colonization of Mars, cuban missile crisis, David Strachan, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, hygiene hypothesis, Kickstarter, life extension, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, Steve Jobs, twin studies

The worse the effects of the vodka were on the volunteers, the worse the microbial disruption and the more microbe toxins were generated.13 These LPS toxins from the cell walls have been shown in mice to activate the immune system and create an addiction to alcohol.14 It may sound a bit far-fetched, but it’s possible that microbes could be in part responsible for alcohol addiction in humans. But as always in studies of alcohol there was a wide range of responses, not just genetic but related to the differences in the species and diversity of the microbes already in the vodka volunteers’ guts. While large epidemiological longitudinal studies such as a recent one in the UK continue to report slight protective effects of moderate drinking, particularly in older women, there is still a worry about bias.15 Several studies have used the genes for alcohol intolerance as a proxy for drinking rather than those unreliable questionnaires that rely on old-fashioned honesty. For years, from observational studies cancer of the colon has been associated with alcohol drinking, but a large gene-based study lacking most of the biases couldn’t confirm this.16 In 2014 a large meta-analysis study of 260,000 people using genes for alcohol intolerance (alcohol dehydrogenase) as a marker for drinking rather than using self-report questionnaires has cast doubt on the strength of the protective effects of light boozing.

California and Oregon showed the lowest use of antibiotics (on average, 30 per cent less than other states), and it was these states that were relatively protected from obesity. Now we are well aware that studies of national observations such as these can easily mislead. You could, for example, have a similar US map correlating obesity with the use of Facebook or body piercing. So the findings of our two studies were far from proof. Some replication to confirm the antibiotic–obesity hypothesis was needed. The first opportunity came using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children that I often work with. This follows up 12,000 kids from birth in Bristol, using carefully collected measurements and medical records.15 In this study, exposure to antibiotics in the first six months of life significantly increased – by 22 per cent – the children’s amount of fat and their overall risk of obesity over the next three years. In a later study the effect of antibiotics was found to be weaker, and there was no effect of other medications.


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Head, Hand, Heart: Why Intelligence Is Over-Rewarded, Manual Workers Matter, and Caregivers Deserve More Respect by David Goodhart

active measures, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, assortative mating, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, call centre, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, centre right, computer age, corporate social responsibility, COVID-19, Covid-19, David Attenborough, David Brooks, deglobalization, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, desegregation, deskilling, different worldview, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Etonian, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Flynn Effect, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, glass ceiling, illegal immigration, income inequality, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labour market flexibility, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shock, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, pink-collar, post-industrial society, post-materialism, postindustrial economy, precariat, reshoring, Richard Florida, Scientific racism, Skype, social intelligence, spinning jenny, Steven Pinker, superintelligent machines, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Thorstein Veblen, twin studies, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, upwardly mobile, wages for housework, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, young professional

Indeed, Plomin and other geneticists stress that cognitive function is only about 50 percent inherited and point out that the principle of “reversion to the mean” means that very clever people often have only averagely clever children.I It is also a commonplace among geneticists and intelligence researchers to claim that high IQ is associated not only with measures of socioeconomic status—education, occupational prestige, and income—but health and longevity too. The main debate is about the direction of causality, or how much the economic investment of affluent, well-educated parents contributes to the IQ scores of their children. An important recent study of the “genetics of success” that looked at genetic associations with educational attainment and social mobility provided a mixed picture. The study, led by Daniel Belsky, consisted of five longitudinal studies testing 20,000 individuals in the United States, Britain, and New Zealand.17 The authors concluded that participants with higher polygenic scores achieved most education and career success, but they also tended to come from better-off families. Nevertheless, participants with higher polygenic scores tended to be upwardly mobile compared with their parents, and siblings with the highest polygenic score were the most upwardly mobile.

m=201407. 14 Quoted in Julia Ingram, “Cardinal Conversations Speaker Charles Murray Stirs Campus Debate,” Stanford Daily, January 30, 2018. 15 Robert Plomin, Blueprint: How DNA Makes Us Who We Are (London: Allen Lane, 2018). 16 Niki Erlenmeyer-Kimling and Lissy Jarvik, “Genetics and Intelligence: A Review,” Science 142, no. 3590 (1963), 1477–78. 17 Daniel W. Belsky, Benjamin W. Domingue, Robbee Wedow et al., “Genetic Analysis of Social-Class Mobility in Five Longitudinal Studies,” PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States) 115, no. 31 (2018), 7275–84, https://www.pnas.org/content/115/31/E7275. 18 James Bloodworth, The Myth of Meritocracy (London: Biteback, 2016), 102. 19 Erzsébet Bukodi and John H. Goldthorpe, Social Mobility and Education in Britain: Research, Politics and Policy (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2018). 20 Alice Sullivan, “The Path from Social Origins to Top Jobs: Social Reproduction via Education,” British Journal of Sociology 69, no. 3 (2018), 782–84. 21 Jo Blanden, Paul Gregg, and Stephen Machin, Intergenerational Mobility in Europe and North America: A Report Supported by the Sutton Trust, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics/Sutton Trust (2005). 22 Peter Saunders, Social Mobility Myths (London: Civitas, 2010), 69. 23 Michael Young, The Rise of the Meritocracy, 1870–2033 (London: Thames & Hudson, 1958). 24 Charles Murray, “The Bell Curve Explained: Part 1, the Emergence of a Cognitive Elite,”, American Enterprise Institute, May 12, 2017, https://www.aei.org/society-and-culture/the-bell-curve-explained-part-1-the-emergence-of-a-cognitive-elite/. 25 For summary, see Toby Young, “The Fall of the Meritocracy,” Quadrant Online, September 7, 2015, https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2015/09/fall-meritocracy/. 26 “The Rise and Rise of the Cognitive Elite: Brains Bring Ever Larger Rewards,” Economist, January 22, 2011. 27 “Modern Women Marrying Men of the Same or Lower Social Class,” IPPR May 4, 2012, https://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/press-releases/modern-women-marrying-men-of-the-same-or-lower-social-class. 28 David Willets, The Pinch: How the Baby Boomers Took Their Children’s Future—and Why They Should Give it Back (London: Atlantic, 2011). 29 Charles Murray, Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960–2010 (New York: Crown Forum, 2012), 59. 30 Richard Reeves, Dream Hoarders: How the American Upper Middle Class Is Leaving Everyone Else in the Dust, Why That Is a Problem, and What to Do About It (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2017). 31 Daniel Markovits, The Meritocracy Trap: How America’s Foundational Myth Feeds Inequality, Dismantles the Middle Class, and Devours the Elite (London: Allen Lane, 2019). 32 James Bloodworth, The Myth of Meritocracy, 67. 33 Richard Breen, Social Mobility in Europe (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2004). 34 Andrew Hacker, “The White Plight,” The New York Review of Books, 10 May 2012. 35 David Robson, The Intelligence Trap. 36 Dalton Conley and Jason Fletcher, The Genome Factor: What the Social Genomics Revolution Reveals About Ourselves, Our History, and the Future (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017). 37 Kwame Anthony Appiah, “The Myth of Meritocracy: Who Really Gets What They Deserve?


Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism by Pippa Norris, Ronald Inglehart

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, Cass Sunstein, centre right, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, declining real wages, desegregation, Donald Trump, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, first-past-the-post, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, job automation, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, land reform, liberal world order, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, obamacare, open borders, open economy, post-industrial society, post-materialism, precariat, purchasing power parity, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, statistical model, stem cell, War on Poverty, white flight, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working-age population, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

See Anthony Heath, Geoffrey Evans, and J. Martin. 1994. ‘The measurement of core beliefs and values: The development of balanced socialist/ laissez faire and libertarian/authoritarian scales.’ British Journal of Political Science 24 (1): 115–132. 37. Dieter Fuchs and Hans-­Dieter Klingemann. 1990. ‘The left–right schema.’ In M. Kent Jennings & Jan W. van Deth. Eds. Continuities in Political Action: A Longitudinal Study of Political Orientations in Three Western Democracies. Berlin: de Gruyter, pp. 203–234; J.D. Huber. 1989. ‘Values and partisanship in left–right orientations: Measuring ideology.’ European Journal of Political Research 17 (5): 599–621; Andre Freire. 2006. ‘Bringing social identities back in: The social anchors of left–right orientation in Western Europe.’ International Political Science Review 27 (4): 359–378; Y.

The most extreme case is Greece; economic output has fallen by more than one-­fourth since 2010, about a quarter of the work force is unemployed, and about half of all bank loans are in default.48 The Greek economy still had not recovered by late 2017: per capita GDP Part II Authoritarian-Populist Values 151 was under $18,000, about half the level of its pre-­crisis peak in 2008. The dramatic shock to the Greek economy might explain the political backlash, including the rise of the ultranationalist Golden Dawn, which gained seats for the first time in 2012.49 Major financial crises (characterized by bank runs, sharp increases in default rates, bankruptcies, and large losses of capital) also seem to fuel support for political extremism; one longitudinal study examined parliamentary election results in 20 post-­industrial societies from 1870 to 2014, finding that far right parties experienced an average rise of about 30 percent in their vote share in the five years after a systemic financial crisis.50 By contrast, no equivalent gains were recorded for far left parties (and no similar effects were observed for recessions or economic downturns without a financial crash).

Responses to hypothetical items (‘would you ever’) tend to be less reliable than reported voting choices (‘how did you vote’), with the risk of generating ‘manufactured’ answers for parties that respondents have not seriously considered supporting. Moreover, reported party preferences may also diverge widely from the actual votes cast, especially for smaller parties, partly due to strategic or tactical voting considerations. The dynamics of individual changes in voting choices are ideally measured from longitudinal studies of electoral behavior using multiwave election surveys (of different respondents over time, such as pre-­post election studies), or, even better, panel surveys (repeated observations of the same respondents over time). Panel studies are usually conducted within specific countries, however, which limits their comparative value 264 Who Votes for Authoritarian-­Populist Parties? to test whether generalizations established in one case can be observed over many national contexts and over time.


Battling Eight Giants: Basic Income Now by Guy Standing

basic income, Bernie Sanders, centre right, collective bargaining, decarbonisation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, full employment, future of work, Gini coefficient, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, labour market flexibility, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, open economy, pension reform, precariat, quantitative easing, rent control, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, universal basic income, Y Combinator

Recipients felt a greater sense of economic security and the scheme de-stigmatized income assistance, because it was seen as for everybody.3 This contrasts with the impact of means-testing as the existing core of the British welfare system. The community-level benefits demonstrate the desirability of designing British basic income pilots to cover everyone in a community rather than just a sample of individuals. Spill-over and communal effects matter. (2) North Carolina An important ‘accidental pilot’ occurred in North Carolina, although it is non-replicable. Shortly after the launch of a long-term longitudinal study of child development in the area, a Native American community decided to convert the profits of the local casino into basic income payments for community members. This enabled researchers to compare outcomes for affected children against those for others in the study. Children in families receiving the basic income did much better in school than those in the control group, and there was a ‘dramatic decrease’ in juvenile crime.


Magical Urbanism: Latinos Reinvent the US City by Mike Davis

affirmative action, Berlin Wall, business cycle, clean water, collective bargaining, deindustrialization, desegregation, edge city, illegal immigration, immigration reform, Internet Archive, invisible hand, job automation, longitudinal study, manufacturing employment, market bubble, mass immigration, new economy, occupational segregation, postnationalism / post nation state, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, strikebreaker, union organizing, upwardly mobile, urban renewal, War on Poverty, white flight, white picket fence, women in the workforce, working poor

Rossell Research in the Teaching of English 30:1 (1996); Patricia de Cos, Educating California's Immi- An grant Children: Overview of Bilingual Education, California Research Bureau (State Li- brary), Sacramento, Calif 1999, p. 46. 224. Diane Aug. and Kenji Hakuta, A Research Agenda, 225. J. National Ramirez, et eds. Improving Schoolingfor Language-Minority Students: , Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. 1997. Final Report: Longitudinal Study of Structured English Immersion Strat- al.. and Late-Exit Transitional Bilingual Education Programs for Language-Minority egy, Early-Exit, US Department of Education (300-87-0156), Washington D.C. 1991, p. 48. 226. See discussion in Luis Moll, "Multilingual Classroom Studies and Community Analysis: Some Recent Trends," Educational Researcher 21 (March 1992), pp. 20-24. Children, 227.


pages: 493 words: 139,845

Women Leaders at Work: Untold Tales of Women Achieving Their Ambitions by Elizabeth Ghaffari

Albert Einstein, AltaVista, business cycle, business process, cloud computing, Columbine, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, dark matter, family office, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, follow your passion, glass ceiling, Grace Hopper, high net worth, knowledge worker, Long Term Capital Management, longitudinal study, performance metric, pink-collar, profit maximization, profit motive, recommendation engine, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, thinkpad, trickle-down economics, urban planning, women in the workforce, young professional

This is an opportunity, every day, to mentor young women and men as they look for their role in the larger world. Ghaffari: Do participants go on to become major athletes? DeFrantz: Not so much, but sport enriches their lives. We see some studies that say that people are better citizens when they are part of a team. We haven’t actually subsidized those studies ourselves, but we know of them. We have chosen not to spend our money that way. It costs a lot to do those studies. You have to do longitudinal studies. But we know, and believe, and have found that people are better citizens when they’ve had a chance to be a part of a team. A lot of these kids will come back and support the next generation. They come back and volunteer to coach and undertake other tasks. Having a chance to be a part of something larger than yourself is really important. And sports provide that. Ghaffari: What was the most satisfying opportunity you encountered in your career?

I chose that approach because reunions are the times when alumnae usually think about coming back—they feel a little more nostalgic. They might be a little more willing to do a survey. I promised that if they did complete the survey, I would share the results with them at the reunion. So I got very good participation. I discovered a great deal about how careers really transition. The surveys were separate snapshots of different people, rather than a longitudinal study following a single group throughout their life, which is research that is very valuable, but extremely time-consuming. One of my colleagues, John Kotter, actually does that. He’s followed the same group since the late 1970s. But my surveys were of a group of people who were queued up for their reunions. Each set of surveys was discrete, yet the findings were relatively consistent over the years.


pages: 567 words: 122,311

Lean Analytics: Use Data to Build a Better Startup Faster by Alistair Croll, Benjamin Yoskovitz

Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, barriers to entry, Bay Area Rapid Transit, Ben Horowitz, bounce rate, business intelligence, call centre, cloud computing, cognitive bias, commoditize, constrained optimization, en.wikipedia.org, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, frictionless, frictionless market, game design, Google X / Alphabet X, Infrastructure as a Service, Internet of things, inventory management, Kickstarter, lateral thinking, Lean Startup, lifelogging, longitudinal study, Marshall McLuhan, minimum viable product, Network effects, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, performance metric, place-making, platform as a service, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, rolodex, sentiment analysis, skunkworks, Skype, social graph, social software, software as a service, Steve Jobs, subscription business, telemarketer, transaction costs, two-sided market, Uber for X, web application, Y Combinator

This kind of reporting allows you to see patterns clearly against the lifecycle of a customer, rather than slicing across all customers blindly without accounting for the natural cycle a customer undergoes. Cohort analysis can be done for revenue, churn, viral word of mouth, support costs, or any other metric you care about. A/B and Multivariate Testing Cohort experiments that compare groups like the one in Table 2-2 are called longitudinal studies, since the data is collected along the natural lifespan of a customer group. By contrast, studies in which different groups of test subjects are given different experiences at the same time are called cross-sectional studies. Showing half of the visitors a blue link and half of them a green link in order to see which group is more likely to click that link is a cross-sectional study. When we’re comparing one attribute of a subject’s experience, such as link color, and assuming everything else is equal, we’re doing A/B testing.

Li, Charlene, Engagement Funnel Changes Libin, Phil, Backupify’s Customer Lifecycle Learning, Freemium Versus Paid Liew, Roger, Data-Driven Versus Data-Informed LikeBright case study, Getting Answers at Scale LinkedIn site, Finding People to Talk To, LikeBright “Mechanical Turks” Its Way into TechStars local maximum value, Data-Driven Versus Data-Informed Localmind case study, Build It Before You Build It (or, How to Validate the Solution) Lockheed Martin, Lean from Within: Intrapreneurs Long Funnel, The Long Funnel, What Mode of E-commerce Are You? The Long Tail (Anderson), Freemium Versus Paid longitudinal studies, Cohort Analysis Lord, Joanna, The Discipline of One Metric That Matters Lovell, Nicholas, Monthly Average Revenue Per Mobile User loyalty mode (e-commerce model), What Mode of E-commerce Are You?, What Makes a Good Leading Indicator? Luk, Raymond, The Minimum Viable Vision M machine-only optimization, Data-Driven Versus Data-Informed MacLeod, Mark, Upselling and Growing Revenue MailChimp mailing list provider, Virality mailing list click-through rates, A Practical Example, Keywords and Search Terms mailing lists answers-at-scale campaign and, Creating an Answers-at-Scale Campaign determining normal values of metrics, Virality in e-commerce model, A Practical Example, Keywords and Search Terms Maltz, Jules, Freemium Versus Paid managed service provider (MSP), Empathy: Consulting and Segmentation marketing definition, What Business Are You In?


pages: 194 words: 49,310

Clock of the Long Now by Stewart Brand

Albert Einstein, Brewster Kahle, Buckminster Fuller, Colonization of Mars, complexity theory, Danny Hillis, Eratosthenes, Extropian, fault tolerance, George Santayana, Internet Archive, Jaron Lanier, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, life extension, longitudinal study, low earth orbit, Metcalfe’s law, Mitch Kapor, nuclear winter, pensions crisis, phenotype, Ray Kurzweil, Robert Metcalfe, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, technological singularity, Ted Kaczynski, Thomas Malthus, Vernor Vinge, Whole Earth Catalog

It’s useless to try to imagine what the Web might be like in, say, 2045 (only as far removed in time as the bombing of Hiroshima), so we don’t bother. Does this mean that technoids and their camp followers are responsibility-impaired? Could be. Environmentalists are supposed to be the long-view specialists these days, but I think we do it poorly. I was trained as an ecologist, so I know how extremely limited our longitudinal studies are: about the length of time it takes to get a graduate degree. Since it is the long, slow fluctuations and cycles that most influence everything in ecology, we still don’t have the most important information on how natural systems actually work over time. Also, environmentalists are calamity callers. We’re the leading apostles of Things Are Getting Worse. Gregg Easterbrook has written a whole fat book of environmental good news called A Moment on the Earth, in which he fricassees his fellow environmentalists for scanting their many successes and occasionally lying about the problems (spotted owls abound in second-growth forests, for example).


pages: 976 words: 235,576

The Meritocracy Trap: How America's Foundational Myth Feeds Inequality, Dismantles the Middle Class, and Devours the Elite by Daniel Markovits

"Robert Solow", 8-hour work day, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, affirmative action, Anton Chekhov, asset-backed security, assortative mating, basic income, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, business cycle, capital asset pricing model, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, computer age, corporate governance, corporate raider, crony capitalism, David Brooks, deskilling, Detroit bankruptcy, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Emanuel Derman, equity premium, European colonialism, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, helicopter parent, high net worth, hiring and firing, income inequality, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, invention of agriculture, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, medical residency, minimum wage unemployment, Myron Scholes, Nate Silver, New Economic Geography, new economy, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, precariat, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, Richard Florida, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, school choice, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, six sigma, Skype, stakhanovite, stem cell, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, telemarketer, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, Thomas Davenport, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, total factor productivity, transaction costs, traveling salesman, universal basic income, unpaid internship, Vanguard fund, War on Poverty, Winter of Discontent, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional, zero-sum game

zip codes in the top 1 percent: See Murray, Coming Apart, 78, 82, 87, and Appendix B. See also Charles Murray, “Charles Murray, Author of Coming Apart, Examines Demographic Shifts in This New Decade,” Debate This Book, April 25, 2013, accessed July 19, 2018, http://debatethisbook.com/2013/04/25/charles-murray-author-of-coming-apart-examines-demographic-shifts-in-this-new-decade/. high school degrees only: A longitudinal study based on data from the years between 1979 and 1996 found that 19.2 percent of young adults with just a high school education moved states, while 36.6 percent of college graduates and 45.0 percent of people with more than a college education moved to a different state. See Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, “Migration of Recent College Graduates: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, New England Economic Review, January–February 2001, 15.

.,” City Lab, August 13, 2014, www.citylab.com/housing/2014/08/where-private-school-enrollment-is-highest-and-lowest-across-the-us/375993/. Another study reports that 18 percent of children from the richest fifth of households attend private schools, compared to 9 percent of children from the next two-fifths and just 4 percent of children from the bottom two-fifths. Reeves, Dream Hoarders, 47. For the purposes of this study, private schools included parochial schools, and data came from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 Senior Class of 2004 First Follow-Up survey, National Center for Education Statistics. only 7 percent from the bottom half: For a compilation of these data, see Michael T. Owyang and E. Katarina Vermann, “Measuring the Effect of School Choice on Economic Outcomes,” Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (October 2012). The study bases its calculations on data from the National Center for Education Statistics.

And as recently as 1991, the average salary four years out from an elite MBA was just $63,000 (roughly $110,000 in 2015 dollars), while a study of MBA incomes discarded a salary of $450,000 (or about $800,000 in 2015 dollars) as an outlier so far from the pack that its inclusion would misleadingly skew averages. See Charles A. O’Reilly III and Jennifer A. Chatman, “Working Smarter and Harder: A Longitudinal Study of Managerial Success,” Administrative Science Quarterly 39, no. 4 (December 1994): 614. For a more general report on the professional school premium at midcentury’s close, see Michael Simkovic, “The Knowledge Tax,” University of Chicago Law Review 82 (2015). Hereafter cited as Simkovic, “The Knowledge Tax.” is much greater still: The postgraduate income premium relative to a high school education only is greater still and is now 70 percent higher for men and 90 percent higher for women than it was as recently as 1970.


pages: 181 words: 52,147

The Driver in the Driverless Car: How Our Technology Choices Will Create the Future by Vivek Wadhwa, Alex Salkever

23andMe, 3D printing, Airbnb, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, clean water, correlation does not imply causation, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, double helix, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Google bus, Hyperloop, income inequality, Internet of things, job automation, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Law of Accelerating Returns, license plate recognition, life extension, longitudinal study, Lyft, M-Pesa, Menlo Park, microbiome, mobile money, new economy, personalized medicine, phenotype, precision agriculture, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak, Stuxnet, supercomputer in your pocket, Tesla Model S, The Future of Employment, Thomas Davenport, Travis Kalanick, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, uranium enrichment, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero day

They are discovering connections between what types of bacteria live inside your body, how your genes behave, and how healthy you feel. Microbiome: Bacterial Rainforest in Your Gut Many children are born with genetic predispositions to type-1 diabetes. Though some of those infants become diabetic in their earlier years, others do not. A key reason for this may lie in the microbiome. In February 2015, researchers from M.I.T. and from Harvard University released the results of the most comprehensive longitudinal study yet of how the diversity and types of gut flora affect onset of this type of diabetes.3 The scientists tracked what happened to the gut bacteria of a large number of subjects from birth to their third year in life, and found that children who became diabetic suffered a 25 percent reduction in their gut bacteria’s diversity. What’s more, the mix of bacteria shifted away from types known to promote health toward types known to promote inflammation.


pages: 204 words: 54,395

Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us by Daniel H. Pink

affirmative action, call centre, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dean Kamen, deliberate practice, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, functional fixedness, game design, George Akerlof, Isaac Newton, Jean Tirole, job satisfaction, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, performance metric, profit maximization, profit motive, Results Only Work Environment, side project, the built environment, Tony Hsieh, transaction costs, zero-sum game

Amabile, Elise Phillips, and Mary Ann Collins, Person and Environment in Talent Development: The Case of Creativity, in Talent Development: Proceedings from the 1993 Henry B. and Jocelyn Wallace National Research Symposium on Talent Development , edited by Nicholas Colangelo, Susan G. Assouline, and DeAnn L. Ambroson (Dayton: Ohio Psychology Press, 1993), 273-74. Jean Kathryn Carney, Intrinsic Motivation and Artistic Success (unpublished dissertation, 1986, University of Chicago); J. W. Getzels and Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, The Creative Vision: A Longitudinal Study of Problem-Finding in Art (New York: Wiley, 1976). Teresa M. Amabile, Creativity in Context (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1996), 119; James C. Kaufman and Robert J. Sternberg, eds., The International Handbook of Creativity (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006), 18. Richard Titmuss, The Gift Relationship: From Human Blood to Social Policy, edited by Ann Oakley and John Ashton, expanded and updated edition (New York: New Press, 1997).


pages: 525 words: 153,356

The People: The Rise and Fall of the Working Class, 1910-2010 by Selina Todd

call centre, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, credit crunch, deindustrialization, deskilling, different worldview, Downton Abbey, financial independence, full employment, income inequality, longitudinal study, manufacturing employment, Neil Kinnock, New Urbanism, Red Clydeside, rent control, Right to Buy, rising living standards, sexual politics, strikebreaker, The Spirit Level, unemployed young men, union organizing, upwardly mobile, urban renewal, Winter of Discontent, women in the workforce, young professional

Halsey, A.F. Heath and J.M. Ridge, Origins and Destinations: Family, Class and Education in Modern Britain (Oxford, 1980), p. 61, table 4.8, and p. 140, table 8.11. 15. ‘Keep Class Warfare out of the Classrooms’, Liverpool Daily Post (4 January 1962). 16. ‘Golden Gate or Prison Wall?’, Economist (30 January 1951), p. 125. 17. J.W.B. Douglas, J.M. Ross and H.R. Simpson, All Our Future: A Longitudinal Study of Secondary Education (London, 1971). 18. Richard Hoggart recalls this in The Uses of Literacy, and working-class families continued to buy encyclopedias after the Second World War. See, for example, the account of one of the sociologists who visited Luton in the early 1960s to talk to car workers about their affluence. Their interviewees included Bernard Harris, in whose living room the sociologist noted ‘a glass-fronted book shelf in the corner full of books, including encyclopedia’: record no. 023, SN 4871, UKDA.

., Housing in Greater London (London: LSE, 1961) ——Housing in Transition: A Case Study in the City of Lancaster, 1958–1962 (London: Heinemann, 1963) Davies, M.L. (ed.), Life as We Have Known It (London: Virago, 1984) Dennis, N., F. Henriques and C. Slaughter, Coal Is Our Life. An Analysis of a Yorkshire Mining Community (London: Eyre and Spottiswoode, 1956) Douglas, J.W.B. and H.R. Simpson, All our Future: A Longitudinal Study of Secondary Education (London: P. Davies, 1971) Family Welfare Association and Child Poverty Action Group, Carrying the Can: Charities and the Welfare State (London: CPAG, 1984) Floud, J.E. (ed.), with A.H. Halsey and F.M. Martin, Social Class and Educational Opportunity (London: Heinemann, 1956) Gavron, H., The Captive Wife: Conflicts of Housebound Mothers (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1968) Glass, D.


pages: 504 words: 147,722

Doing Harm: The Truth About How Bad Medicine and Lazy Science Leave Women Dismissed, Misdiagnosed, and Sick by Maya Dusenbery

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Atul Gawande, equal pay for equal work, feminist movement, gender pay gap, Joan Didion, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, obamacare, phenotype, pre–internet, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), sexual politics, Skype, stem cell, women in the workforce

Patricia Schroeder. “NIH’s attitude has been to consider over half the population as some sort of special case,” Rep. Olympia Snowe charged. Given the NIH’s lack of record keeping, it was impossible to say exactly how underrepresented women were, but the public learned that women had been left out of many of the largest, most important clinical studies conducted in the last couple of decades. The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, which began in 1958 and purported to explore “normal human aging,” didn’t enroll any women for the first twenty years it ran. The Physicians’ Health Study, which had recently concluded that taking a daily aspirin may reduce the risk of heart disease? Conducted in 22,071 men and zero women. The 1982 Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial—known, aptly enough, as MRFIT—which looked at whether dietary change and exercise could help prevent heart disease: just 13,000 men.

(Kennedy), 87 autism spectrum disorders, 117 autoimmune disease, 1–2, 137–71; ACE and, 89; atypical presentations, 146; autoimmune encephalitis, 168–70; center for, only existing, 146; “chronic complainer” label and, 144–47; death or disability in women and, 138–39; diagnosis of, 2, 79, 144–48; dismissal of symptoms, 146, 147; as epidemic, 163–64; fatigue and, 162–64; gender bias and, 137, 142, 145–46, 148–50, 154, 155, 156; health care costs of, 163; history of, 139–43; as hysteria or psychogenic disorder, 140–43, 268; knowledge gap and, 144, 158; as MUS, 166–67; medical research and, 27, 47, 143; men with, 149; misdiagnosis of, 147, 152, 155–56, 164–66, 167, 192, 314; multiple types in one patient, 146; number of cases, 138; pain and, 178; personality profile for, 143; pregnancy and, 39; prevalence in women, 2, 20, 27, 42, 50, 138; rise in number of cases, 139; sufferers blamed for, 142–43; symptoms, 147; what it is, 138. See also specific disorders Autoimmune Epidemic, The (Nakazawa), 140 back pain/chronic low back pain, 75, 88, 97, 123, 177, 191, 194, 197, 203, 219, 236, 248 Baillou, Guillaume de, 199 Bairey Merz, C. Noel, 111, 120, 121, 134, 135 Ballweg, Mary Lou, 218–19, 221, 222, 223, 224, 225, 227, 228 Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, 25 Barber, Hugh, 306 Bateman, Lucinda, 262, 263, 264, 267, 272 Baylis, Françoise, 39 Beard, George, 66, 199 Beery, Annaliese, 48 Berkowitz, Amy, 312–13; Tender Points, 203–4 Binkley, Karen, 191 Blackwell, Elizabeth, 6 Black Women’s Health Imperative, 156 Blount, Linda, 156 Body of Truth (Brown), 244 Boston Women’s Health Book Collective, 18 Brain on Fire (Cahalan), 168–69 brain tumors, 151–52 Brain Tumour Charity, 151 Brea, Jen, 251–52, 258–59, 264–65, 275, 278, 295, 303, 317; Unrest, 303 breast cancer, 18, 25, 27, 32, 33, 47, 114, 117, 151, 245, 255, 305, 306 Briquet, Pierre, 199 Brody, Jane, 185 Brown, Harriet, Body of Truth, 244, 246 Bynum, W.


pages: 667 words: 149,811

Economic Dignity by Gene Sperling

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Cass Sunstein, collective bargaining, corporate governance, David Brooks, desegregation, Detroit bankruptcy, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Elon Musk, employer provided health coverage, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, full employment, gender pay gap, ghettoisation, gig economy, Gini coefficient, guest worker program, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, income inequality, invisible hand, job automation, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, late fees, liberal world order, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum wage unemployment, obamacare, offshore financial centre, payday loans, price discrimination, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, speech recognition, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Toyota Production System, traffic fines, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, War on Poverty, working poor, young professional, zero-sum game

Ashley Nellis, “Color of Justice: Racial and Ethnic Disparity in State Prisons,” Sentencing Project, June 14, 2016, https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/color-of-justice-racial-and-ethnic-disparity-in-state-prisons/. 47. Christy Visher, Sara Debus, and Jennifer Yahner, “Employment after Prison: A Longitudinal Study of Releasees in Three States,” Urban Institute, October 2008, https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/32106/411778-Employment-after-Prison-A-Longitudinal-Study-of-Releasees-in-Three-States.PDF. 48. Cory Booker and Mignon Clyburn, “The Unnecessarily High Cost of Inmate Calling Charges Is an Injustice,” Huffington Post, October 13, 2016, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/high-cost-of-inmate-calling-charges-injustice_b_8285802. 49. Bernadette Rabuy and Daniel Kopf, “Separation by Bars and Miles: Visitation in State Prisons,” Prison Policy Initiative, October 20, 2015, https://www.prisonpolicy.org/reports/prisonvisits.html. 50.


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Transcend: The New Science of Self-Actualization by Scott Barry Kaufman

Albert Einstein, David Brooks, desegregation, Donald Trump, fear of failure, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, helicopter parent, impulse control, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, phenotype, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, Rosa Parks, science of happiness, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social intelligence, Steven Pinker, theory of mind

T., et al. (2002). Do lonely days invade the nights? Potential social modulation of sleep efficiency. Psychological Science, 13(4), 384–387; Kurina, L. M., et al. (2011). Loneliness is associated with sleep fragmentation in a communal society. Sleep, 34(11), 1519–1526; Luo, Y., Hawkley, L. C., Waite, L. J., & Cacioppo, J. T. (2012). Loneliness, health, and mortality in old age: A national longitudinal study. Social Science & Medicine, 74(6), 907–914; Quora contributor. (2017). Loneliness might be a bigger health risk than smoking or obesity. Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/01/18/loneliness-might-be-a-bigger-health-risk-than-smoking-or-obesity/amp. 9. Scelfo, J. (2015). Suicide on campus and the pressure of perfection. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/02/education/edlife/stress-social-media-and-suicide-on-campus.html; Firger, J. (2016).

The life voyage of a solo circumnavigator: Integrating theoretical and methodological perspectives. Journal of Personality, 65(4), 785–1068, p. 976. 65. Doran, G. T. (1981). There’s a S.M.A.R.T. way to write management’s goals and objectives. Management Review, 70, 35–36. 66. Thanks to Jordyn Feingold for developing these examples. 67. Duffy, R. D., Allan, B. A., Autin, K. L., & Douglass, R. P. (2014). Living a calling and work well-being: A longitudinal study. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 61(4), 605–615; Hall, D. T., & Chandler, D. E. (2005). Psychological success: When the career is a calling. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 26(2), 155–176; Vianello, M., Galliani, E. M., Rosa, A. D., & Anselmi, P. (2019). The developmental trajectories of calling: Predictors and outcomes. Journal of Career Assessment. https://doi.org/10.1177/1069072719831276. 68.


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Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress by Steven Pinker

3D printing, access to a mobile phone, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, Arthur Eddington, artificial general intelligence, availability heuristic, Ayatollah Khomeini, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Bonfire of the Vanities, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, clockwork universe, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, distributed generation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, double helix, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, endogenous growth, energy transition, European colonialism, experimental subject, Exxon Valdez, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, frictionless, frictionless market, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, Hans Rosling, hedonic treadmill, helicopter parent, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, Jaron Lanier, Joan Didion, job automation, Johannes Kepler, John Snow's cholera map, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, l'esprit de l'escalier, Laplace demon, life extension, long peace, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, Nathan Meyer Rothschild: antibiotics, Nelson Mandela, New Journalism, Norman Mailer, nuclear winter, obamacare, open economy, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Singer: altruism, Peter Thiel, precision agriculture, prediction markets, purchasing power parity, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, Republic of Letters, Richard Feynman, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Rory Sutherland, Saturday Night Live, science of happiness, Scientific racism, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, supervolcano, technological singularity, Ted Kaczynski, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, union organizing, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, War on Poverty, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey, Y2K

The peak age of poisoning deaths in 2011 was around fifty, up from the low forties in 2003, the late thirties in 1993, the early thirties in 1983, and the early twenties in 1973.57 Do the subtractions and you find that in every decade it’s the members of the generation born between 1953 and 1963 who are drugging themselves to death. Despite perennial panic about teenagers, today’s kids are, relatively speaking, all right, or at least better. According to a major longitudinal study of teenagers called Monitoring the Future, high schoolers’ use of alcohol, cigarettes, and drugs (other than marijuana and vaping) have dropped to the lowest levels since the survey began in 1976.58 * * * With the shift from a manufacturing to a service economy, many social critics have expressed nostalgia for the era of factories, mines, and mills, probably because they never worked in one.

Though people often do rebound from setbacks and pocket their good fortune, their happiness takes a sustained hit from trials like unemployment or disability, and a sustained boost from gifts like a good marriage or immigrating to a happier country.22 And contrary to an earlier belief, winning the lottery does, over the long term, make people happier.23 Since we know that countries get richer over time (chapter 8), we can think of figure 18-1 as a freeze-frame in a movie showing humanity getting happier over time. This increase in happiness is yet another indicator of human progress, and among the most important of all. Of course this snapshot is not an actual longitudinal chronicle in which people all over the world are polled for centuries and we plot their happiness over time; such data do not exist. But Stevenson and Wolfers scoured the literature for what longitudinal studies there were, and found that in eight out of nine European countries, happiness increased between 1973 and 2009 in tandem with the country’s rise in GDP per capita.24 A confirmation for the world as a whole comes from the World Values Survey, which found that in forty-five out of fifty-two countries, happiness increased between 1981 and 2007.25 The trends over time close the books on the Easterlin paradox: we now know that richer people within a country are happier, that richer countries are happier, and that people get happier as their countries get richer (which means that people get happier over time).

But given the poem’s difficulty few of them have managed to figure out precisely why he thinks our age is characterized primarily by anxiety—or even whether he is really saying that at all.”77 Whether he was saying that or not, Auden’s name for our era has stuck, and it provided the obvious title for a meta-analysis by Twenge which showed that scores on a standard anxiety test administered to children and college students between 1952 and 1993 rose by a full standard deviation.78 Things that can’t go on forever don’t, and as best we can tell, the increase among college students leveled off after 1993.79 Nor have other demographic sectors become more anxious. Longitudinal studies of high school students and of adults conducted from the 1970s through the first decades of the 21st century find no rise across the cohorts.80 Though in some surveys people have reported more symptoms of distress, anxiety that crosses the line into pathology is not at epidemic levels, and has shown no global increase since 1990.81 * * * Everything is amazing. Are we really so unhappy?


Growth: From Microorganisms to Megacities by Vaclav Smil

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, agricultural Revolution, air freight, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, colonial rule, complexity theory, coronavirus, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, endogenous growth, energy transition, epigenetics, happiness index / gross national happiness, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Hyperloop, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, Law of Accelerating Returns, longitudinal study, mandelbrot fractal, market bubble, mass immigration, McMansion, megacity, megastructure, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, old age dependency ratio, optical character recognition, out of africa, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, Productivity paradox, profit motive, purchasing power parity, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, Republic of Letters, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, technoutopianism, the market place, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, urban sprawl, Vilfredo Pareto, yield curve

Even during the colonial times (thanks to an abundance of good farmland and low population density) Americans were taller than any contemporary population whose average heights are known, but there was actually a slight dip in average male height between 1830 and 1890, followed by a more than 10 cm gain by the year 2000 (Komlos 2001; Chanda et al. 2008). Australia has closely matched that rise. And a study of 620 infants born in Ohio between 1930 and 2008 (the Fels Longitudinal Study) showed that the most pronounced differences in growth occurred in the first year of life (Johnson et al. 2012). Boys and girls born after 1970 were 1.4 cm longer, and about 450 g heavier but during their first year of life their growth was slower than that of infants born before 1970 (“catch-down growth”). Chinese gains were briefly interrupted by the world’s largest famine (1959–1961) but growth of the country’s youth in 16 major cities over the period of half a century between the 1950s and 2005 shows that the average height at 18 years of age increased from 166.6 to 173.4 cm for males and from 155.8 to 161.2 cm for females, gains of 1.3 and 1.1 cm/decade (Ji and Chen 2008).

The agricultural revolution in Northern Europe, 1750–1880: Nitrogen, legumes, and crop productivity. Economic History 34:71–93. Chu, W., et al. 2016. A survey analysis of energy use and conservation opportunities in Chinese households. In B. Su and E. Thomson, eds., China’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation. Berlin: Springer, pp. 5–22. Chumlea, W. C., et al. 2009. First seriatim study into old age for weight, stature and BMI: The Fels longitudinal study. Journal of Nutrition, Health & Aging 13:3–5. Churkina, G., et al. 2010. Carbon stored in human settlements: The coterminous United States. Global Change Biology 16:135–143. CIA (Central Intelligence Agency). 2017. The world factbook. ttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/index.html. Ciccone, A., and R.

International Journal of Geographical Information Science 29:498–522. Johnson, A. M. 1956. The Development of American Pipelines 1862–1906. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press. Johnson, N. P., and J. Mueller. 2002. Updating the accounts: Global mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic. Bulletin of the History of Medicine 76:105–115. Johnson. W., et al. 2012. Eighty-year trends in infant weight and length growth: The Fels Longitudinal Study. Journal of Pediatrics 160:762–768. Johnston, L., and S. H. Williamson. 2017. What was the U.S. GDP then? Measuring worth. http://www.measuringworth.org/usgdp/. Jones, C. I. 1995. R&D-based models of economic growth. Journal of Political Economy 103:759–784. Jones, H. 1973. Steam Engines. London: Ernest Benn. Jones, O. R., et al. 2014. Diversity of ageing across the tree of life. Nature 505:169–173.


pages: 199 words: 56,243

Trillion Dollar Coach: The Leadership Playbook of Silicon Valley's Bill Campbell by Eric Schmidt, Jonathan Rosenberg, Alan Eagle

Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, augmented reality, Ben Horowitz, cloud computing, El Camino Real, Erik Brynjolfsson, fear of failure, Jeff Bezos, longitudinal study, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Sand Hill Road, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Tim Cook: Apple

Chapter 5: The Power of Love 1.Nicolas O. Kervyn, Charles M. Judd, and Vincent Y. Yzerbyt, “You Want to Appear Competent? Be Mean! You Want to Appear Sociable? Be Lazy! Group Differentiation and the Compensation Effect,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 45, no. 2 (February 2009): 363–67. 2.Kaplan, Startup, 42. 3.Sigal G. Barsade and Olivia A. O’Neill, “What’s Love Got to Do with It? A Longitudinal Study of the Culture of Companionate Love and Employee and Client Outcomes in a Long-term Care Setting,” Administrative Science Quarterly 59, no. 4 (November 2014): 551–98. 4.Suzanne Taylor, Kathy Schroeder, and John Doerr, Inside Intuit: How the Makers of Quicken Beat Microsoft and Revolutionized an Entire Industry (Boston: Harvard Business Review Press, 2003), 231. 5.Jason M. Kanov, Sally Maitlis, Monica C.


pages: 204 words: 58,565

Keeping Up With the Quants: Your Guide to Understanding and Using Analytics by Thomas H. Davenport, Jinho Kim

Black-Scholes formula, business intelligence, business process, call centre, computer age, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, Florence Nightingale: pie chart, forensic accounting, global supply chain, Hans Rosling, hypertext link, invention of the telescope, inventory management, Jeff Bezos, Johannes Kepler, longitudinal study, margin call, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Myron Scholes, Netflix Prize, p-value, performance metric, publish or perish, quantitative hedge fund, random walk, Renaissance Technologies, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, six sigma, Skype, statistical model, supply-chain management, text mining, the scientific method, Thomas Davenport

The study’s focus was to understand how changes in the brain could be linked to Alzheimer’s and other neurological disorders in advanced age. MODELING (VARIABLE SELECTION). Participants in Snowdon’s study were members of the School Sisters of Notre Dame religious congregation in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. From 1991 to 1993, women from the convent who were born before 1917 were asked to join the Nun Study, a longitudinal study of aging and Alzheimer’s disease. Of the 1,027 eligible sisters, 678 (66 percent) agreed to participate and gave informed written consent. The participation rate in the Nun Study is relatively high, given that all participants agreed to donate their brains upon death, as well as undergo annual assessments of cognitive and physical function. Snowdon and his team further investigated a subset of ninety-three participants in the Nun Study, who had handwritten autobiographies from early life on file in the convent archives.


pages: 257 words: 68,203

The Talent Code: Greatest Isn't Born, It's Grown, Here's How by Daniel Coyle

Albert Einstein, Bob Geldof, deliberate practice, experimental subject, impulse control, longitudinal study, Ralph Waldo Emerson

Meltzoff, Alison Gopnik, and Patricia Kuhl, The Scientist in the Crib: What Early Learning Tells Us About the Mind (New York: Harper, 2000). The study on cognitive reserve and aging comes from N. Scarmeas et al., “Influence of Leisure Activity on the Incidence of Alzheimer's Disease,” Neurology 57 (2001), 2236–42. For more on Carol Dweck's middle-schooler study, see L. S. Blackwell, K. H. Tvzesniewski, and C. S. Dweck, “Implicit Theories of Intelligence Predict Achievement Across an Adolescent Transition: A Longitudinal Study and an Intervention,” Child Development 78 (2007), 246–63. Finally, I relied on a vast field of books about skill and talent. Among the best I number the following. Some are memoirs and biographies, included because they offer such vivid depictions of the skill-building process. They may never use the word myelin, but its presence is felt on every page. John Jerome, The Sweet Spot in Time: The Search for Athletic Perfection (New York: Breakaway Books, 1980); Glenn Kurtz, Practicing: A Musician's Return to Music (New York: Alfred A.


pages: 222 words: 60,207

Circus Maximus: The Economic Gamble Behind Hosting the Olympics and the World Cup by Andrew Zimbalist

airline deregulation, business cycle, carbon footprint, East Village, en.wikipedia.org, full employment, Gini coefficient, income inequality, longitudinal study, Nelson Mandela, New Urbanism, principal–agent problem, race to the bottom, selection bias, urban planning, young professional

Points 15 and 16 were added in a June 2014 public relations brochure titled “What You Need to Know about the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil,” put out by the Secretariat for Social Communication, Presidency of the Federative Republic of Brazil. The brochure was prepared by a New York City public relations firm, Fleishman-Hillard. 4. European Tour Operators Association (ETOA), Olympic Report, ETOA Report 2006 (www.etoa.org), p. 6. 5. Ibid. 6. J. R. Brent Ritchie and Brian H. Smith, “The Impact of a Mega-Event on Host Region Awareness: A Longitudinal Study,” Journal of Travel Research 30, no. 1 (1991): 3–10. 7. ETOA, “Olympics and Tourism,” ETOA Report 2010 (www.etoa.org), p. 1. It is perhaps reasonable to question the objectivity of the ETOA. On the one hand, as a tourist trade association, one would suspect that the ETOA would be a proponent of any event that lifted tourism and hence would be inclined to be supportive of the Olympics if the games indeed lift tourism.


pages: 209 words: 63,649

The Purpose Economy: How Your Desire for Impact, Personal Growth and Community Is Changing the World by Aaron Hurst

Airbnb, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, big-box store, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, disintermediation, Elon Musk, Firefox, glass ceiling, greed is good, housing crisis, informal economy, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, longitudinal study, means of production, Mitch Kapor, new economy, pattern recognition, Peter Singer: altruism, Peter Thiel, QR code, Ray Oldenburg, remote working, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, Tony Hsieh, too big to fail, underbanked, women in the workforce, young professional, Zipcar

Careers around the World: Individual and Contextual Perspectives. New York: Routledge, 2012. Print. Campbell, T. Colin and Campbell, Thomas. The China Study. Dallas, 2004. Print. Cameron, Kim S., Jane E. Dutton, and Robert E. Quinn. Positive Organizational Scholarship: Foundations of a New Discipline. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler, 2003. Print. Chatman, J. A. & O’Reilly, C. A. 1994. “Working smarter and harder: A longitudinal study of managerial success.” Administrative Science Quarterly, 39: 603-627. Chatman, J. A. 1991. “Matching people and organizations: Selection and socialization in public accounting firms.” Administrative Science Quarterly, 36: 459-484. Chesbrough, Henry William., Wim Vanhaverbeke, and Joel West. Open Innovation: Researching a New Paradigm. Oxford: Oxford UP, 2006. Print. Ciulla, Joanne B. The Working Life: The Promise and Betrayal of Modern Work.


pages: 219 words: 62,816

"They Take Our Jobs!": And 20 Other Myths About Immigration by Aviva Chomsky

affirmative action, Bernie Sanders, British Empire, call centre, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, European colonialism, full employment, guest worker program, illegal immigration, immigration reform, informal economy, invisible hand, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, mass immigration, mass incarceration, new economy, out of africa, postindustrial economy, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, structural adjustment programs, The Chicago School, thinkpad, trickle-down economics, union organizing, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce

Leyba (Los Angeles, CA: Evaluation, Dissemination and Assessment Center, California State University Los Angeles, 1981), 3–49. 10. See, for example, the recent comprehensive study funded by the U.S. Department of Education: Diane August and Timothy Shanahan, eds., Developing Literacy in Second-Language Learners: Report of the National Literacy Panel on Language-Minority Children and Youth (Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2006). See also J. D. Ramirez, S. D. Yuen, D. R. Ramey, and D. Pasta, Longitudinal Study of Structured English Immersion Strategy, Early-Exit and Late-Exit Transitional Bilingual Education Programs for Language Minority: Final Report, vols. 1 and 2 (San Mateo, CA: Aguirre International, 1991), and Stephen Krashen and Grace McField, “What Works? Reviewing the Latest Evidence on Bilingual Education,” Language Learner, November–December 2005, 7–10, 34, http://users.rcn.com/crawj/langpol/Krashen-McField.pdf. 11.


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To Sell Is Human: The Surprising Truth About Moving Others by Daniel H. Pink

always be closing, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, business cycle, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, complexity theory, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, disintermediation, future of work, George Akerlof, information asymmetry, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, out of africa, Richard Thaler, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Steve Jobs, The Market for Lemons, Upton Sinclair, Wall-E, zero-sum game

., “Increasing Saving Behavior.” 5. Ibid., citing Hal Erner-Hershfield, M. Tess Garton, Kacey Ballard, Gregory R. Samanez-Larken, and Brian Knutson, “Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow: Individual Differences in Future-Self Continuity Account for Saving,” Judgment and Decision Making 4 (2009): 280–86. 6. Hershfield et al., “Increasing Saving Behavior.” 7. Jacob Getzels and Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, The Creative Vision: A Longitudinal Study of Problem Finding in Art (New York: Wiley, 1976); Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi and Jacob Getzels, “Creativity and Problem Finding,” in Frank H. Farley and Ronald W. Neperud, eds., The Foundations of Aesthetics, Art, and Art Education (New York: Praeger, 1988). The quotation itself appears in Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience (New York: Harper Perennial, 1981), 277. 8.


Epigenetics: How Environment Shapes Our Genes by Richard C. Francis

agricultural Revolution, cellular automata, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, experimental subject, longitudinal study, Machine translation of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak." to Russian and back, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, stem cell, twin studies

See the following regarding epigenetic sources of discordance: for lupus, Ballestar, Esteller, et al. (2006); and for Alzheimer’s disease, Mastroeni, McKee, et al. (2009). Singh and O’Reilly (2009) provide evidence of epigenetic divergence in monozygotic twins discordant for schizophrenia; see also Kato, Iwamoto, et al. (2005). Chapter 1. A Grandmother Effect 1. Stein and Susser (1975). 2. This ongoing longitudinal study is an international collaboration, involving several departments of the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam and the MRC (Medical Research Council) at the University of Southampton in England. 3. Smith (1947). 4. Stein, Susser, et al. (1972); Ravelli, Stein, et al. (1976). 5. Hoch (1998). For the association between famine and depression, see Brown, van Os, et al. (2000); between famine and antisocial personality disorders in males, see Neugebauer, Hoek, et al. (1999). 6.


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The Barbell Prescription: Strength Training for Life After 40 by Jonathon Sullivan, Andy Baker

complexity theory, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, experimental subject, Gary Taubes, indoor plumbing, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral panic, phenotype, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), the scientific method, Y Combinator

Skeletal muscle nitric oxide (NO) synthases and NO-signaling in “diabesity”— What about the relevance of exercise training interventions? Nitric Oxide 2013;doi:10.1016/j.niox.2013.2009 Eknoyan G. AdopheQuetelet (1796-1874)—the average man and indices of obesity. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2008; 23(1):47-51. Ellington WR. Evolution and physiological roles of phosphagen systems. Ann Rev Physiol 2001;63:289-325. Engelke K, Kemmler W, Lauber D, et al. Exercise maintains bone density at spine and hip EFOPS: a 3-year longitudinal study in early postmenopausal women. Osteoporosis Int 2006;17:133-142. Erikkson J, Taimela S, Koivisto VA. Exercise and the metabolic syndrome. Diabetalogica 1997;40:125-135. Erikson EF, Glerup H. Vitamin D deficiency and aging: implications for general health and osteoporosis. Biogerontology 2002;3:73-77. Esposito K, Giugliano F, Martedi E, et al. High proportions of erectile dysfunction in men with the metabolic syndrome.

Amino Acids 2011;epub ahead of print. Feigenbaum J, Goodmurphy C, Scheider C. Gripping matters: Anatomy 501 for the press. 2013 The Aasgaard Company. http://startingstrength.com/article/gripping_matters Ferreira I, Twisk JS, van Mechelen W et al. Development of fitness, fatness and lifestyle from adolescence to the age of 36 years. Determinants of the metabolic syndrome in young adults: the Amsterdam Growth and Health Longitudinal Study. Arch Intern Med 2005;165(1):42-48. Ferreira R, Neuparth MJ, Vitorino R, et al. Evidences of apoptosis during the early phases of soleus muscle atrophy in hindlimb suspended mice. Physiol Res 2008;57:601-11. Ferris LT, Williams JS, Shen CL. The effect of acute exercise on serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor levels and cognitive function. Med Sci Sports Exerc 2007;39(4):728-734.


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Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas by Natasha Dow Schüll

airport security, Albert Einstein, Build a better mousetrap, business intelligence, capital controls, cashless society, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, deskilling, game design, impulse control, information asymmetry, inventory management, iterative process, jitney, large denomination, late capitalism, late fees, longitudinal study, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nash equilibrium, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, profit motive, RFID, Silicon Valley, Slavoj Žižek, statistical model, the built environment, yield curve, zero-sum game

In Gambling Cultures: Studies in History and Interpretation, edited by J. McMillen, 140–52. London: Routledge. ———. 2003. “Exploring the Limits of Responsible Gambling: Harm Minimization or Consumer Protection?” Gambling Research: Journal of the National Association for Gambling Studies (Australia) 15: 29–44. Dickerson, M., J. Haw, and L. Shepherd. 2003. The Psychological Causes of Problem Gambling: A Longitudinal Study of At Risk Recreational EGM Players. Sydney: University of Western Sydney, School of Psychology, Bankstown Campus, www.austgamingcouncil.org.au/images/pdf/eLibrary/1575.pdf, accessed June 2007. Dickerson, M., J. Hinchy, S. L. England, J. Fabre, and R. Cunningham. 1992. “On the Determinants of Persistent Gambling Behaviour. I. High-Frequency Poker Machine Players.” British Journal of Psychology 83: 237–48.

. ———. 2002 [1971]. Beyond Freedom and Dignity. New York: Knopf. Skolnik, Sam. 2011. High Stakes: The Rising Costs of America’s Gambling Addiction. Boston: Beacon Press. “Slot Machines and Pinball Games.” 1950. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 269: 62–70. “A Slot Maker for All Seasons.” 1996. International Gaming and Wagering Business, September 18. Slutske, W. S. 2007. “Longitudinal Studies of Gambling Behavior.” In Research and Measurement Issues in Gambling Studies, edited by G. Smith, D. C. Hodgins, and R. J. Williams, 127–54. London: Elsevier. Smith, Garry. 2008. “Accountability and Social Responsibility in the Regulation of Gambling in Ontario.” Paper presented at the Alberta Gaming Research Institute Annual Conference. Banff. Smith, Garry, and C. S. Campbell. 2007. “Tensions and Contentions: An Examination of Electronic Gaming Issues in Canada.”


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Fun Inc. by Tom Chatfield

Alexey Pajitnov wrote Tetris, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Boris Johnson, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer age, credit crunch, game design, invention of writing, longitudinal study, moral panic, publication bias, Silicon Valley, Skype, stem cell, upwardly mobile

Moreover, he added, the question ‘do violent games cause violence?’ is itself flawed in that ‘it assumes that such games have only negative effects and ignores the possibility of positive effects’ such as the possibility that violent games allow ‘catharsis’ of a kind in their players. This, for many people, is sufficiently radical stuff to provoke considerable scepticism. And, indeed, 2008 saw a rather different case being made by a peer-reviewed longitudinal study of violence in games published in the US journal Pediatrics. A joint venture between American and Japanese academics, this paper (‘Longitudinal Effects of Violent Video Games on Aggression in Japan and the United States’) argued that, across three samples of Japanese and American secondary school pupils examined at two points in time over a period of three to six months, ‘habitual violent video game play early in the school year predicted later aggression, even after controlling for gender and previous aggressiveness in each sample’.


pages: 245 words: 64,288

Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That's OK: How to Survive the Economic Collapse and Be Happy by Pistono, Federico

3D printing, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, bioinformatics, Buckminster Fuller, cloud computing, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Firefox, future of work, George Santayana, global village, Google Chrome, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, illegal immigration, income inequality, information retrieval, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, jimmy wales, job automation, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, Lao Tzu, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, Loebner Prize, longitudinal study, means of production, Narrative Science, natural language processing, new economy, Occupy movement, patent troll, pattern recognition, peak oil, post scarcity, QR code, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, RFID, Rodney Brooks, selection bias, self-driving car, slashdot, smart cities, software as a service, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Steven Pinker, strong AI, technological singularity, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, women in the workforce

Jan-Emmanuel De Neve has taken the study a step further, picking a popular suspect – the gene that encodes the serotonin-transporter protein, a molecule that shuffles a brain messenger called serotonin through cell membranes – and examined how variants of the 5-HTT gene affect levels of happiness. The serotonin-transporter gene comes in two functional variants – long and short – and people have two versions (known as alleles) of each gene, one from each parent. After examining genetic data from more than 2,500 participants in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, De Neve found that people with one long allele were 8% more likely than those with none to describe themselves as very satisfied with life and those with two long alleles were 17% more likely of describing themselves as very satisfied. Interestingly enough, there is a notable variation across races with Asian Americans in the sample having on average 0.69 long genes, white Americans with 1.12, and black Americans with 1.47. ’It has long been suspected that this gene plays a role in mental health but this is the first study to show that it is instrumental in shaping our individual happiness levels,’ writes De Neve. ’This finding helps to explain why we each have a unique baseline level of happiness and why some people tend to be naturally happier than others, and that is in no small part due to our individual genetic make-up.”’, 2011.


pages: 317 words: 71,776

Inequality and the 1% by Danny Dorling

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, banking crisis, battle of ideas, Bernie Madoff, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, buy and hold, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, centre right, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, corporate governance, credit crunch, David Attenborough, David Graeber, delayed gratification, Dominic Cummings, double helix, Downton Abbey, en.wikipedia.org, Etonian, family office, financial deregulation, full employment, Gini coefficient, high net worth, housing crisis, income inequality, land value tax, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, lump of labour, mega-rich, Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay, Mont Pelerin Society, mortgage debt, negative equity, Neil Kinnock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, TaskRabbit, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trickle-down economics, unpaid internship, very high income, We are the 99%, wealth creators, working poor

Schalansky, Pocket Atlas of Remote Islands: Fifty Islands I Have Not Visited and Never Will (London: Particular Books, 2012), p. 76 (although she should have said mutinies rather than revolutions perhaps). 2. M. Taussig, Beauty and the Beast (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2012), pp. 11, 152. 3. G. Dines, ‘Downton Abbey and House of Cards: Dramas that Live in the World of the 1 Per Cent’, Guardian, 20 February 2014. 4. N. Powdthavee and A. J. Oswald, ‘Does Money Make People Right-Wing and Inegalitarian? A Longitudinal Study of Lottery Winners’, Warwick University Working Paper, 2014, at ideas.repec.org. 5. C. Davies, ‘Lottery Millionaires Each Fund Six Jobs a Year, Study Shows’, Guardian, 22 October 2012. 6. M. Robinson and J. Stevens, ‘Couple Who Scooped £148 Million Lottery Jackpot to Divorce Just Over a Year Since Their Win’, Daily Mail, 20 November 2013. 7. Ibid., quoting from the Sun (which is now behind a paywall). 8.


pages: 239 words: 69,496

The Wisdom of Finance: Discovering Humanity in the World of Risk and Return by Mihir Desai

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, assortative mating, Benoit Mandelbrot, Brownian motion, capital asset pricing model, carried interest, Charles Lindbergh, collective bargaining, corporate governance, corporate raider, discounted cash flows, diversified portfolio, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, financial innovation, follow your passion, George Akerlof, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, housing crisis, income inequality, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Jony Ive, Kenneth Rogoff, longitudinal study, Louis Bachelier, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, new economy, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, Pierre-Simon Laplace, principal–agent problem, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Thales and the olive presses, Thales of Miletus, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, zero-sum game

Make friends who will force you to lever yourself up.” Commitments to smart and demanding people keep us from doing stupid things—we gain from those commitments. Leverage is not a zero-sum game. In addition to allowing you to be more productive and raising your own standards, embedding yourself in meaningful relationships is simply good for you. George Vaillant, a research psychiatrist, helped conduct the longest longitudinal study of emotional and physical development by continuing the so-called Grant Study of Harvard undergraduates in the late 1930s. By tracking physiological and emotional data over more than seventy years, Vaillant and his colleagues provide some of the best evidence on what matters for longevity and happiness. And the answer he arrived at, as described by Joshua Wolf Shenk, is deceptively simple.


pages: 279 words: 71,542

Digital Minimalism: Choosing a Focused Life in a Noisy World by Cal Newport

Burning Man, Cal Newport, Donald Trump, financial independence, game design, index fund, Jaron Lanier, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, lifelogging, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, Pepto Bismol, pre–internet, price discrimination, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, Steve Jobs

Colditz, Ana Radovic, and Elizabeth Miller, “Social Media Use and Perceived Social Isolation among Young Adults in the U.S.,” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 53, no. 1 (July 2017): 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2017.01.010. “It’s social media, so aren’t people”: Hobson, “Feeling Lonely?” “Our results show that overall”: Holly B. Shakya and Nicholas A. Christakis, “Association of Facebook Use with Compromised Well-Being: A Longitudinal Study,” American Journal of Epidemiology 185, no. 3 (February 2017): 203–11, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kww189. These negative connections still held: Shakya and Christakis, “Association of Facebook Use,” 205–6. “What we know at this point”: Hobson, “Feeling Lonely?” “Where we want to be cautious”: Hobson, “Feeling Lonely?” “Face-to-face conversation is the most human”: Sherry Turkle, Reclaiming Conversation: The Power of Talk in a Digital Age, rev. ed.


Once the American Dream: Inner-Ring Suburbs of the Metropolitan United States by Bernadette Hanlon

big-box store, correlation coefficient, deindustrialization, desegregation, edge city, feminist movement, housing crisis, illegal immigration, informal economy, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, manufacturing employment, McMansion, New Urbanism, Silicon Valley, statistical model, The Chicago School, transit-oriented development, urban sprawl, white flight, working-age population, zero-sum game

Urban Studies 43 (11): 1971–1989. Cooper, Donald R., and Pamela S. Schindler. 2003. Business research methods. 8th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Higher Education. Cortina, Jose M. 1993. What is coefficient alpha? An examination of theory and applications. Journal of Applied Psychology 78 (1): 98–104. Coulton, Claudia, Tsui Chan, Michael Schramm, and Kristen Mikelbank. 2008. Pathways to foreclosure: A longitudinal study of mortgage loans, Cleveland and Cuyahoga County, 2005 to 2008. Report by the Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development at Case Western University. Cleveland, OH: Case Western University. Danielson, Michael N. 1972. Suburbs: The politics of exclusion. New York: Columbia University Press. Davies, Gordon W. 1978. Theoretical approaches to filtering in the urban housing market. In Urban housing markets: Recent directions in research and policy.


pages: 270 words: 71,659

The Right Side of History by Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Filter Bubble, illegal immigration, income inequality, Internet Archive, Isaac Newton, Johannes Kepler, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, means of production, Peace of Westphalia, Ronald Reagan, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, white picket fence, women in the workforce

Only living with moral purpose can grant profound happiness.12 As Austrian psychiatrist Viktor Frankl wrote in his stirring memoir about surviving the Holocaust, Man’s Search for Meaning, “Woe to him who saw no more sense in his life, no aim, no purpose, and therefore no point in carrying on. He was soon lost. . . . We had to learn ourselves and, furthermore, we had to teach the despairing men, that it did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us.”13 Frankl’s feeling isn’t anecdotal. According to a fourteen-year longitudinal study from the University of Carleton in Canada, those who reported strong purpose in life at the outset of the study were 15 percent more likely to still be alive than those who did not. That statistic held true for every age group. Another similar study from the University College London found that for those above retirement age, a sense of purpose correlated with a 30 percent decrease in chances of death over an eight-and-a-half-year period.


pages: 1,351 words: 385,579

The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined by Steven Pinker

1960s counterculture, affirmative action, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, British Empire, Broken windows theory, business cycle, California gold rush, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, clean water, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, crack epidemic, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, Doomsday Clock, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, experimental subject, facts on the ground, failed state, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fudge factor, full employment, George Santayana, ghettoisation, Gini coefficient, global village, Henri Poincaré, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, impulse control, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, long peace, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Marshall McLuhan, mass incarceration, McMansion, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Singer: altruism, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, Republic of Letters, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, security theater, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, twin studies, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

But on the whole, Haidt’s surveys show that it is the people who identify their politics with the word liberal who are more likely to emphasize fairness and autonomy, the cardinal virtues of classical liberalism, over community, authority, and purity.270 And as we saw in chapter 7, the self-described liberals are ahead of the curve on issues of personal autonomy, and the positions they pioneered decades ago have been increasingly accepted by conservatives today. The psychologist Satoshi Kanazawa has analyzed two large American datasets and found that in both, intelligence correlates with the respondents’ political liberalism, holding age, sex, race, education, earnings, and religion statistically constant.271 Among more than twenty thousand young adults who had participated in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, average IQ increased steadily from those who identified themselves as “very conservative” (94.8) to those who identified themselves as “very liberal” (106.4). The General Social Survey shows a similar correlation, while also containing a hint that intelligence tracks classical liberalism more closely than left-liberalism. The smarter respondents in the survey were less likely to agree with the statement that the government has a responsibility to redistribute income from the rich to the poor (leftist but not classically liberal), while being more likely to agree that the government should help black Americans to compensate for the historical discrimination against them (a formulation of a liberal position which is specifically motivated by the value of fairness).

Self-reports on self-control: Tangney, Baumeister, & Boone, 2004. 96. Benefits of self-control: Tangney et al., 2004. 97. Crime and self-control: Gottfredson, 2007; Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990; Wilson & Herrnstein, 1985. 98. Delay of gratification and aggression: Rodriguez, Mischel, & Shoda, 1989. 99. Teacher ratings of impulsiveness and aggressiveness: Dewall et al., 2007; Tangney et al., 2004. 100. Longitudinal study of temperament: Caspi, 2000. See also Beaver, DeLisi, Vaughn, & Wright, 2008. 101. Violent and nonviolent crimes correlated in New Zealand sample: Caspi et al., 2002. 102. Maturation of frontal lobes: Fuster, 2008, pp. 17–19. 103. Delay discounting doesn’t correlate with juvenile delinquency: Wilson & Daly, 2006. 104. Sensation-seeking peaks at eighteen: Romer, Duckworth, Sznitman, & Park, 2010. 105.

., & Tooby, J. 1992. Cognitive adaptations for social exchange. In J. H. Barkow, L. Cosmides, & J. Tooby, eds., The adapted mind: Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture. New York: Oxford University Press. Côté, S. M., Vaillancourt, T., LeBlanc, J. C., Nagin, D. S., & Tremblay, R. E. 2006. The development of physical aggression from toddlerhood to pre-adolescence: A nationwide longitudinal study of Canadian children. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 34, 71–85. Courtois, S., Werth, N., Panné, J.-L., Paczkowski, A., Bartosek, K., & Margolin, J.-L. 1999. The black book of communism: Crimes, terror, repression. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Courtwright, D. T. 1996. Violent land: Single men and social disorder from the frontier to the inner city. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.


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Democratizing innovation by Eric von Hippel

additive manufacturing, correlation coefficient, Debian, disruptive innovation, hacker house, informal economy, information asymmetry, inventory management, iterative process, James Watt: steam engine, knowledge economy, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Network effects, placebo effect, principal–agent problem, Richard Stallman, software patent, transaction costs, Vickrey auction

“Rewards and Punishment as Selective Incentives for Collective Action: Theoretical Investigations.” American Journal of Sociology 85: 1356–1375. Oliver, P. E., and G. Marwell. 1988. “The Paradox of Group Size in Collective Action: A Theory of the Critical Mass II.” American Sociological Review 53, no. 1: 1–18. Olson, E. L., and G. Bakke. 2001. “Implementing the Lead User Method in a High Technology Firm: A Longitudinal Study of Intentions versus Actions.” Journal of Product Innovation Management 18, no. 2: 388–395. Olson, M. 1967. The Logic of Collective Action. Harvard University Press. 192 Bibliography O’Mahony, S. 2003. “Guarding the Commons: How Open Source Contributors Protect Their Work.” Research Policy 32, no. 7: 1179–1198. Ostrom, E. 1998. “A Behavioral Approach to the Rational Choice Theory of Collective Action.”


pages: 280 words: 79,029

Smart Money: How High-Stakes Financial Innovation Is Reshaping Our WorldÑFor the Better by Andrew Palmer

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, algorithmic trading, Andrei Shleifer, asset-backed security, availability heuristic, bank run, banking crisis, Black-Scholes formula, bonus culture, break the buck, Bretton Woods, call centre, Carmen Reinhart, cloud computing, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, computerized trading, corporate governance, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edmond Halley, Edward Glaeser, endogenous growth, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, eurozone crisis, family office, financial deregulation, financial innovation, fixed income, Flash crash, Google Glasses, Gordon Gekko, high net worth, housing crisis, Hyman Minsky, implied volatility, income inequality, index fund, information asymmetry, Innovator's Dilemma, interest rate swap, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, late fees, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, longitudinal study, loss aversion, margin call, Mark Zuckerberg, McMansion, money market fund, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, Myron Scholes, negative equity, Network effects, Northern Rock, obamacare, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, railway mania, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, short selling, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, statistical model, Thales of Miletus, transaction costs, Tunguska event, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, Vanguard fund, web application

The example of firms like Kickstarter, Crowdcube, Lending Club (discussed in the next chapter), and others is habituating people to the idea of funding strangers over an online platform. And the availability of data online means that firms like Upstart can analyze the likely earnings power of youngsters in more sophisticated ways than ever before. The first thing Paul Gu did when he had the idea for equity-funded education was crunch some numbers. Public data from a couple of longitudinal studies showing the long-term relationship between education and income in the United States enabled him to build what he describes as “a simple multivariate regression model”—you know the sort, we’ve all built one—and work out the relationships between things such as test scores, degrees, and first jobs on later income. That model has since grown into something whizzier. An applicant’s education, SAT scores, work experience, and other details are pumped into a proprietary statistical model, which looks at people with comparable backgrounds and generates a prediction of that person’s personal income.


pages: 300 words: 76,638

The War on Normal People: The Truth About America's Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future by Andrew Yang

3D printing, Airbnb, assortative mating, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Ben Horowitz, Bernie Sanders, call centre, corporate governance, cryptocurrency, David Brooks, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, falling living standards, financial deregulation, full employment, future of work, global reserve currency, income inequality, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Khan Academy, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Narrative Science, new economy, passive income, performance metric, post-work, quantitative easing, reserve currency, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, single-payer health, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, supercomputer in your pocket, technoutopianism, telemarketer, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unemployed young men, universal basic income, urban renewal, white flight, winner-take-all economy, Y Combinator

In 1995, a group of researchers began tracking the personalities of 1,420 low-income children in North Carolina. Then, something unexpected happened—25 percent of their families started receiving $4,000 per person. They were Cherokee Indians, and a casino had just been built nearby, with earnings flowing to tribal members. This development turned into a research treasure trove. “It would be almost impossible to replicate this kind of longitudinal study,” said Randall Akee, an economics professor at UCLA. Akee found that the impact of the extra cash actually impacted the children’s personalities over the years. Behavioral and emotional disorders went down. Two personality traits became more pronounced—conscientiousness and agreeableness. Both correlate strongly with holding a job and maintaining a steady relationship. These changes were most significant among children who started out the most deficient.


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Without Conscience: The Disturbing World of the Psychopaths Among Us by Robert D. Hare

delayed gratification, In Cold Blood by Truman Capote, longitudinal study, Norman Mailer, twin studies

The psychological forces at play in those who form associations with violent individuals are discussed by J. Reid Meloy (1992). Violent Attachments. Northvale, NT: Jason Aronson, Inc. Chapter 10. The Roots of the Problem 1. Stories of adopted children who wreak havoc on their new families are not uncommon. However, most accounts of the early manifestations of psychopathy are provided by the biological parents of the children involved. 2. Longitudinal studies of the progression of psychopathy and antisocial behavior from childhood to adulthood include: Lee N. Robins (1966). Deviant Children Grow Up. Baltimore, MA: Williams & Wilkins; David Farrington (1991). Antisocial personality from childhood to adulthood. The Psychologist 4, 389–94. 3. A review of the research literature on this topic was provided by B. Lahey, K. McBurnert, R. Loeber, and E.


pages: 249 words: 77,342

The Behavioral Investor by Daniel Crosby

affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, availability heuristic, backtesting, bank run, Black Swan, buy and hold, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, compound rate of return, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, endowment effect, feminist movement, Flash crash, haute cuisine, hedonic treadmill, housing crisis, IKEA effect, impulse control, index fund, Isaac Newton, job automation, longitudinal study, loss aversion, market bubble, market fundamentalism, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, Murray Gell-Mann, Nate Silver, neurotypical, passive investing, pattern recognition, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, random walk, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, science of happiness, Shai Danziger, short selling, South Sea Bubble, Stanford prison experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, stocks for the long run, Thales of Miletus, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, tulip mania, Vanguard fund

Time travel “Time flies when you’re having fun” is a cliché that masks a larger truth: emotion dramatically impacts our perception of time. Specifically, intense emotion truncates our timelines and makes the here-and-now seem like all that is or will ever be. Investors, for whom time is the great wealth compounder, are profoundly hurt by this tendency of emotion to ground them in the short term. Lynch and Bonnie’s (1994) longitudinal study of smoking behavior is proof that strong emotion in the moment can lead to a lifetime of harmful decisions. High school students in their study were asked if they would still be smoking five years hence. Among occasional smokers, 15% predicted that they would be smoking in five years, compared to 32% of those who smoked one pack a day. Five years later, 43% of the occasional smokers were still puffing away while a full 70% of the heavy smokers had maintained their bad habit.


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What Doctors Feel: How Emotions Affect the Practice of Medicine by Danielle Ofri

affirmative action, delayed gratification, facts on the ground, job satisfaction, lateral thinking, longitudinal study, medical malpractice, medical residency, RAND corporation

Danielle Ofri, “Doctors Have Feelings Too,” New York Times, March 28, 2012. CHAPTER TWO 1. Alessio Avenanti, Angela Sirigu, and Salvatore M. Aglioti, “Racial Bias Reduces Empathic Sensorimotor Resonance with Other-Race Pain,” Current Biology (2010): 1018–22. 2. B. W. Newton et al., “Is There Hardening of the Heart During Medical School?” Academic Medicine 83 (2008): 244–49; M. Hojat et al., “The Devil Is in the Third Year: A Longitudinal Study of Erosion of Empathy in Medical School,” Academic Medicine 84 (2009): 1182–91; M. Neumann et al., “Empathy Decline and Its Reasons: A Systematic Review of Studies with Medical Students and Residents,” Academic Medicine 86 (2011): 996–1009. 3. D. Wear et al., “Making Fun of Patients: Medical Students’ Perceptions and Use of Derogatory and Cynical Humor in Clinical Settings,” Academic Medicine 81 (2006): 454–62; G.


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Work Optional: Retire Early the Non-Penny-Pinching Way by Tanja Hester

"side hustle", Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, anti-work, asset allocation, barriers to entry, buy and hold, crowdsourcing, diversification, estate planning, financial independence, full employment, gig economy, hedonic treadmill, high net worth, index fund, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, medical bankruptcy, mortgage debt, obamacare, passive income, post-work, remote working, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, stocks for the long run, Vanguard fund

Phyllis Moen, Jungmeen E. Kim, and Heather Hofmeister, “Couples’ Work/Retirement Transitions, Gender, and Marital Quality,” Social Psychology Quarterly 64, no. 1 (2001): 55–71. Chapter 11: Make Your Well-Being a Top Priority 1. Liz Mineo, “Good Genes Are Nice, but Joy Is Better,” Harvard Gazette, April 11, 2017. Extensively references the Harvard Study of Adult Development, an 80-year-long longitudinal study that began in 1938. 2. David Ekerdt, “The Busy Ethic: Moral Continuity Between Work and Retirement,” Gerontologist 26, no. 3 (1986): 239–244. Chapter 12: Conclusion: Live a Purpose-Filled Life 1. Nancy Schlossberg, Retire Smart, Retire Happy (Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 2003). *Cash-on-cash return is the ratio of pretax cash flow on your rental property to the amount of your total investment, expressed as a percentage.


pages: 337 words: 86,320

Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

affirmative action, AltaVista, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Asian financial crisis, Bernie Sanders, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, Cass Sunstein, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, desegregation, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Filter Bubble, game design, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, John Snow's cholera map, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, Nate Silver, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, price discrimination, quantitative hedge fund, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, TaskRabbit, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, working poor

The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 2 (2009). 229 winning the lottery does not: This point is made in John Tierney, “How to Win the Lottery (Happily),” New York Times, May 27, 2014, D5. Tierney’s piece discusses the following studies: Bénédicte Apouey and Andrew E. Clark, “Winning Big but Feeling No Better? The Effect of Lottery Prizes on Physical and Mental Health,” Health Economics 24, no. 5 (2015); Jonathan Gardner and Andrew J. Oswald, “Money and Mental Wellbeing: A Longitudinal Study of Medium-Sized Lottery Wins,” Journal of Health Economics 26, no. 1 (2007); and Anna Hedenus, “At the End of the Rainbow: Post-Winning Life Among Swedish Lottery Winners,” unpublished manuscript, 2011. Tierney’s piece also points out that the famous 1978 study—Philip Brickman, Dan Coates, and Ronnie Janoff-Bulman, “Lottery Winners and Accident Victims: Is Happiness Relative?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 36, no. 8 (1978)—which found that winning the lottery does not make you happy was based on a tiny sample. 229 your neighbor winning the lottery: See Peter Kuhn, Peter Kooreman, Adriaan Soetevent, and Arie Kapteyn, “The Effects of Lottery Prizes on Winners and Their Neighbors: Evidence from the Dutch Postcode Lottery,” American Economic Review 101, no. 5 (2011), and Sumit Agarwal, Vyacheslav Mikhed, and Barry Scholnick, “Does Inequality Cause Financial Distress?


pages: 312 words: 83,998

Testosterone Rex: Myths of Sex, Science, and Society by Cordelia Fine

assortative mating, Cass Sunstein, credit crunch, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, Drosophila, epigenetics, experimental economics, gender pay gap, George Akerlof, glass ceiling, helicopter parent, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, publication bias, risk tolerance

For instance, the findings from a study of male air force veterans, who were brought into the lab for regular testing of hormone levels and to report on their marital status, “illustrate the dynamic nature of testosterone levels, elevated in the years surrounding divorce, and declining through the years surrounding marriage.”55 The authors speculate that this happens because: The marriage ceremony is the culmination of a more gradual period of courtship and engagement, in which a man accepts the support and consortship of his partner, removing himself from competition with other men for sexual partners. As a result … his testosterone declines. In contrast, impending divorce is a time of competition between spouses for children, for material possessions, and for self-respect. Also, it is a time when the divorcing husband may reenter the competitive arena for sexual partners.56 And an arrow of causality from caregiving to T-level change was clearly seen in a large-scale longitudinal study of fathers in the Philippines, led by University of Notre Dame biological anthropologist Lee Gettler. This study found that fatherhood reduced testosterone levels in men, and more so in fathers who spent more time physically caring for their infants.57 Nor was this simply because lower-testosterone men were more likely to be nurturing fathers; rather, intimate caregiving itself lowered testosterone.


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SuperFreakonomics by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner

agricultural Revolution, airport security, Andrei Shleifer, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, Boris Johnson, call centre, clean water, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, creative destruction, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, Did the Death of Australian Inheritance Taxes Affect Deaths, disintermediation, endowment effect, experimental economics, food miles, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Nash: game theory, Joseph Schumpeter, Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, market design, microcredit, Milgram experiment, oil shale / tar sands, patent troll, presumed consent, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, selection bias, South China Sea, Stanford prison experiment, Stephen Hawking, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, ultimatum game, urban planning, William Langewiesche, women in the workforce, young professional

He argued, for instance, that the same person who might be purely selfish in business could be exceedingly altruistic among people he knew—although, importantly (Becker is an economist, after all), he predicted that altruism even within a family would have a strategic element. Years later, the economists Doug Bernheim, Andrei Shleifer, and Larry Summers empirically demonstrated Becker’s point. Using data from a U.S. government longitudinal study, they showed that an elderly parent in a retirement home is more likely to be visited by his grown children if they are expecting a sizable inheritance. But wait, you say: maybe the offspring of wealthy families are simply more caring toward their elderly parents? A reasonable conjecture—in which case you’d expect an only child of wealthy parents to be especially dutiful. But the data show no increase in retirement-home visits if a wealthy family has only one grown child; there need to be at least two.


pages: 267 words: 82,580

The Dark Net by Jamie Bartlett

3D printing, 4chan, bitcoin, blockchain, brain emulation, carbon footprint, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, Edward Snowden, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Google Chrome, Howard Rheingold, Internet of things, invention of writing, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Julian Assange, Kuwabatake Sanjuro: assassination market, life extension, litecoin, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, moral hazard, moral panic, Occupy movement, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Ross Ulbricht, Satoshi Nakamoto, Skype, slashdot, technological singularity, technoutopianism, Ted Kaczynski, The Coming Technological Singularity, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, WikiLeaks, Zimmermann PGP

., ‘The Use of the Internet by People who Die by Suicide in England: A Cross-Sectional Study’, Journal of Affective Disorders, vol.141. Hawton, K. et al., ‘Self-harm and Suicide in Adolescents’, The Lancet, vol.379, issue 9834. Mental Health Foundation, The Lonely Society. Montgomery, P. et al., ‘The Power of the Web: A Systematic Review of Studies of the Influence of the Internet on Self-Harm and Suicide in Young People’, PLoS ONE. Sueki, H., ‘The Effect of Suicide-Related Internet Use on Users’ Mental Health: A Longitudinal Study’, Journal of Crisis Intervention and Suicide Prevention, vol.34 (5). Conclusion Zoltan vs Zerzan Istvan, Z., The Tranhumanist Wager. Zoltan’s loosely autobiographical work, which sets out a picture of a fairly bleak near future in which transhumanists go to war with the rest of the world. More, M. and Vita-More, N. (eds), Transhumanist Reader An excellent overview of some of the more technical and philosophical aspects of the transhumanist movement, edited by two leading exponents.


pages: 285 words: 83,682

The Lies That Bind: Rethinking Identity by Kwame Anthony Appiah

affirmative action, assortative mating, Boris Johnson, British Empire, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, European colonialism, Ferguson, Missouri, four colour theorem, full employment, illegal immigration, Isaac Newton, longitudinal study, luminiferous ether, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, means of production, precariat, Scramble for Africa, selection bias, transatlantic slave trade, zero-sum game

., 111. 26.http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/man/lab45.htm. 27.See the Seventh Schedule of the 1949 Finance Act, http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1949/47/pdfs/ukpga_19490047_en.pdf. 28.Quoted in Edward Shils, The Order of Learning: Essays on the Contemporary University (New York: Routledge, 2013; originally published 1997), 79. Young, too, cites this remark in The Rise of the Meritocracy. 29.See, e.g., Robert Putnam, Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2015); and, drawing on the UK Household Longitudinal Study, Nissa Finney, Dharmi Kapadia, and Simon Peters, “How Are Poverty, Ethnicity and Social Networks Related?” Joseph Rowntree Foundation, March 30, 2015, https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/how-are-poverty-ethnicity-and-social-networks-related. 30.Nancy Mitford, “The English Aristocracy,” Encounter, September 1955, 5–11. In the years since, similar semisatiric ethnographies of class have emerged: e.g., Paul Fussell’s Class: A Guide Through the American Status System (New York: Summit Books, 1983), and Lisa Birnbach’s The Official Preppy Handbook (New York: Workman Publishing, 1980). 31.There’s no agreement in the social sciences about exactly how to define social capital, let alone on how to measure it, although Robert D.


pages: 294 words: 87,429

In Pursuit of Memory: The Fight Against Alzheimer's by Joseph Jebelli

Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Berlin Wall, double helix, epigenetics, global pandemic, Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, lateral thinking, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, phenotype, placebo effect, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Skype, stem cell, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

In the UK in 2012 former Prime Minister David Cameron launched the ‘Dementia Challenge’, a government initiative committed to more than doubling research spending on Alzheimer’s, from £26.6 million in 2010 to £66.3 million in 2014. In America, Congress has also agreed to boost Alzheimer’s funding by 50 per cent, approving a $350 million increase in its 2016 budget. In Europe, private industry is joining public–private schemes such as the European Prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease (EPAD) initiative, which aims to create a register of 24,000 people for longitudinal studies and clinical trials. And around the world, big drug companies like Johnson & Johnson, Roche and Novartis are coming back to the table, investing $3.3 billion in research in 2014, according to Forbes magazine, more private funding than in any of the preceding ten years.6 In the end, it all whittles down to money. Perceptions are also changing. Listening to Fox, I couldn’t help noticing the age group of the audience.


pages: 305 words: 79,303

The Four: How Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google Divided and Conquered the World by Scott Galloway

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Apple II, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Ben Horowitz, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, Bob Noyce, Brewster Kahle, business intelligence, California gold rush, cloud computing, commoditize, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, disintermediation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, follow your passion, future of journalism, future of work, global supply chain, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Internet Archive, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, Jony Ive, Khan Academy, longitudinal study, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, Oculus Rift, offshore financial centre, passive income, Peter Thiel, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Robert Mercer, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, supercomputer in your pocket, Tesla Model S, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, undersea cable, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, working poor, young professional

Users are curators. However, the camera operator, Facebook, isn’t fooled. It sees the truth—as do its advertisers. This is what makes the company so powerful. The side that faces us, Facebook’s users, is the bait to get us to surrender our real selves. Connecting and Loving Relationships make us happier. The legendary Grant Study at Harvard Medical School has borne this out. The study—the largest longitudinal study of human beings to date—began tracking 268 Harvard male sophomores between 1938 and 1944. In an effort to determine what factors contribute most strongly to “human flourishing,” the study followed these men for seventy-five years, measuring an astonishing range of psychological, anthropological, and physical traits—from personality type to IQ to drinking habits to family relationships to “hanging length of his scrotum.”10 The study found that the depth and meaningfulness of a person’s relationships is the strongest indicator of level of happiness.


pages: 249 words: 81,217

The Art of Rest: How to Find Respite in the Modern Age by Claudia Hammond

Anton Chekhov, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, Desert Island Discs, Donald Trump, El Camino Real, iterative process, Kickstarter, lifelogging, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, Stephen Hawking, The Spirit Level, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen

The Gerontologist, 48 (3), 300–10 17 Lucas, M. et al (2011) ‘Relation Between Clinical Depression Risk and Physical Activity and Time Spent Watching Television in Older Women: A 10-year Prospective Follow-up Study’. American Journal of Epidemiology, 174 (9), 1017–27 18 Shiue, I. (2016) ‘Modeling Indoor TV/Screen Viewing and Adult Physical and Mental Health: Health Survey for England, 2012’. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 23 (12), 11708–15 19 Fancourt, D. & Steptoe, A. (2019) ‘Television Viewing and Cognitive Decline in Older Age: Findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing’. Scientific Reports, 9 (2851) 20 Mesquita, G. & Rubens, R. (2010) ‘Quality of Sleep Among University Students: Effects of Night-time Computer Television Use’. Arquivos de Neuro-Psiquiatria, 68 (5), 720–5 21 Custers, K. & Van den Bulck, J. (2012) ‘Television Viewing, Internet Use, and Self-Reported Bedtime and Rise Time in Adults: Implications for Sleep Hygiene Recommendations from an Exploratory Cross-Sectional Study’.


pages: 389 words: 81,596

Quit Like a Millionaire: No Gimmicks, Luck, or Trust Fund Required by Kristy Shen, Bryce Leung

"side hustle", Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, asset allocation, barriers to entry, buy low sell high, call centre, car-free, Columbine, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, Elon Musk, fear of failure, financial independence, fixed income, follow your passion, hedonic treadmill, income inequality, index fund, longitudinal study, low cost airline, Mark Zuckerberg, mortgage debt, obamacare, offshore financial centre, passive income, Ponzi scheme, risk tolerance, risk/return, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, the rule of 72, working poor, Y2K, Zipcar

We’ve all heard of amazing kids like Malala Yousafzai, who faced death threats for going to school, and Ugandan immigrant Twesigye Jackson Kaguri, whose family scrimped and saved to get him a no. 2 pencil, the price of admission to his local school.2 These are extreme cases, I know, but around the world, education often remains the only way out of poverty. Even in the United States, getting an undergraduate degree increases your average salary by 70 percent. No matter where you are, education has the power to change your life by improving your earning power. Not only that, one longitudinal study demonstrated that a lack of education can be as harmful to your health as smoking. Education improves your ability to process and understand information. Education also helps you become more curious and self-sufficient and teaches you how to trade short-term pain for long-term gain. People who drop out of high school die, on average, a decade earlier than their peers who have a bachelor’s degree.


pages: 322 words: 84,580

The Economics of Belonging: A Radical Plan to Win Back the Left Behind and Achieve Prosperity for All by Martin Sandbu

"Robert Solow", Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, balance sheet recession, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, business cycle, call centre, capital controls, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, centre right, collective bargaining, debt deflation, deindustrialization, deskilling, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, intangible asset, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labour market flexibility, liquidity trap, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Martin Wolf, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mini-job, mortgage debt, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, pattern recognition, pink-collar, precariat, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Richard Florida, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, secular stagnation, social intelligence, TaskRabbit, total factor productivity, universal basic income, very high income, winner-take-all economy, working poor

Immo Fritsche, Eva Jonas, Catharina Ablasser, Magdalena Beyer, Johannes Kuban, Anna-Marie Manger, and Marlene Schultz, “The Power of We: Evidence for Group-Based Control,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 49, no. 1 (January 2013): 19–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2012.07.014; Hemant Kakkar and Niro Sivanathan, “Appeal of a Dominant Leader over a Prestige Leader,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 26 (June 2017): 6734–39, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617711114. 21. Emma Onraet, Kristof Dhont, and Alain Van Hiel, “The Relationships between Internal and External Threats and Right-Wing Attitudes: A Three-Wave Longitudinal Study,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 40, no. 6 (2014): 712–25, https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167214524256. 22. Miguel Carreras, Yasemin Irepoglu Carreras, and Shaun Bowler, “Long-Term Economic Distress, Cultural Backlash, and Support for Brexit,” Comparative Political Studies 52, no. 9 (2019): 1396–424, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414019830714, summarised in Miguel Carreras, Yasemin Irepoglu Carreras, and Shaun Bowler, “It Is the Interplay between Economic Factors and Individual Attitudes That Explains Brexit,” LSE British Politics and Policy blog, London School of Economics and Political Science, 7 May 2019, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/economics-and-culture-brexit/.


pages: 286 words: 87,168

Less Is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World by Jason Hickel

air freight, Airbnb, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, cognitive dissonance, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate personhood, COVID-19, David Graeber, decarbonisation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Elon Musk, energy transition, Fellow of the Royal Society, Fractional reserve banking, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, gender pay gap, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, land reform, liberal capitalism, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, McMansion, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Naomi Klein, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, passive income, planetary scale, plutocrats, Plutocrats, quantitative easing, rent control, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Simon Kuznets, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Spirit Level, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, universal basic income

This same article reports on studies showing that people who work shorter hours have higher levels of well-being than those who work longer hours. 25 Anders Hayden, ‘France’s 35-hour week: Attack on business? Win-win reform? Or betrayal of disadvantaged workers?’ Politics & Society 34(4), 2006, pp. 503–542. 26 This research is reported in Peter Barck-Holst et al., ‘Reduced working hours and stress in the Swedish social services: A longitudinal study,’ International Social Work 60(4), 2017, pp. 897–913. 27 Boris Baltes, et al., ‘Flexible and compressed workweek schedules: A meta-analysis of their effects on work-related criteria,’ Journal of Applied Psychology 84(4), 1999. 28 Anna Coote et al., ‘21 hours: why a shorter working week can help us all flourish in the 21st century,’ New Economics Foundation, 2009. 29 François-Xavier Devetter and Sandrine Rousseau, ‘Working hours and sustainable development,’ Review of Social Economy 69(3), 2011, pp. 333–355. 30 See for example what happened in France when it shifted to a thirty-five-hour week: Samy Sanches, ‘Sustainable consumption à la française?


pages: 998 words: 211,235

A Beautiful Mind by Sylvia Nasar

"Robert Solow", Al Roth, Albert Einstein, Andrew Wiles, Brownian motion, business cycle, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, experimental economics, fear of failure, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Conway, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, linear programming, lone genius, longitudinal study, market design, medical residency, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, Paul Erdős, Paul Samuelson, prisoner's dilemma, RAND corporation, Ronald Coase, second-price auction, Silicon Valley, Simon Singh, spectrum auction, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, upwardly mobile, zero-sum game

Letter from John Nash to Richard Keefe, 1.14.95. Nash has made the same point to many people. 15. Winokur and Tsuang, op. cit., p. 30; also Manfred Bleuler, The Schizophrenic Disorders: Long-Term Patient and Family Studies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1978). 16. Gerd Huber, Gisela Gross, Reinhold Schuttler, and Maria Linz, “Longitudinal Studies of Schizophrenic Patients,” Schizophrenia Bulletin, vol, 6, no. 4 (1980). 17. C. M. Harding, G. W. Brooks, T. Ashikaga, J. S. Strauss, and A. Brier, “The Vermont Longitudinal Study of Persons with Severe Mental Illness, I and II,” American Journal of Psychiatry, vol. 144 (1987), pp. 718–26, 727–35. E. Johnstone, D. Owens, A. Gold et al., “Schizophrenic Patients Discharged from Hospital: A Follow-Up Study,” British Journal of Psychiatry, no. 145 (1984), pp. 586–90, found that 18 percent of the 120 in the study had no significant symptoms and were functioning satisfactorily; 50 percent were still psychotic; and the remainder were somewhere in between.


pages: 384 words: 90,089

The Thyroid Diet by Mary J. Shomon

Gary Taubes, longitudinal study, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI)

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition and Physical Activity. April 22, 2003. http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/obesity/defining.htm. Palkhivala, Alison. “New Hormone Might Explain Link Between Diabetes and Obesity.” WebMD Health. January 17, 2001. Parsons, W. B., Jr. “Controlled-Release Diethylpropion Hydrochloride Used in a Program for Weight Reduction.” Clinical Therapy 1981;3(5):329–335. Peppard, P. E., T. Young, M. Palta, et al. “Longitudinal Study of Moderate Weight Change and Sleep-Disordered Breathing.” Journal of the American Medical Association 2000;284:3015. Perrone, Tony. Dr. Tony Perrone’s Body Fat Breakthru. Regan Books. 1999. Pharmacia & Upjohn Company. Didrex (benzphetamine hydrochloride) Product Information. April 2002. http://www.pfizer.com/download/uspi_didrex.pdf. Phendimetrazine Information. Eon Labs. June 16, 1999. http://www.phendime trazine.org/phendimetrazine-information.htm.


pages: 377 words: 89,000

Deadly Choices: How the Anti-Vaccine Movement Threatens Us All by Paul A. Offit M.D.

Albert Einstein, germ theory of disease, longitudinal study, Ronald Reagan

Casanova-Schmitz, P. B. Dodd, et al., “Formaldehyde (CH2O) Concentrations in the Blood of Humans and Fischer-344 Rats Exposed to CH2O Under Controlled Conditions,” American Industrial Hygiene Association Journal 46 (1985): 1-3. 180 VAERS reports by personal-injury lawyers: M. J. Goodman and J. Nordin, “Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System Reporting Source: A Possible Source of Bias in Longitudinal Studies,” Pediatrics 117 (2006): 387-390. 181 MMR vaccine causes a low platelet count: R. A. Oski and J. L. Naiman, “Effect of Live Measles Vaccine on the Platelet Count,” New England Journal of Medicine 275 (1966): 352-356. 181 Thimerosal in vaccines doesn’t cause autism: K. M. Madsen, M. B. Lauritsen, C. B. Pedersen, et al., “Thimerosal and the Occurrence of Autism: Negative Ecological Evidence from Danish Population-Based Data,” Pediatrics 112 (2003): 604-606; A.


Bastard Tongues: A Trailblazing Linguist Finds Clues to Our Common Humanity in the World's Lowliest Languages by Derek Bickerton

colonial rule, dark matter, European colonialism, experimental subject, illegal immigration, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, rent control

Also you need to know that Seth hadn't yet learned the word "with"; what he actu­ ally intended was "Write it with the pencil," but instead he pro­ duced an instrumental, serial construction. (These constructions will constitute crucial evidence in Chapter 12; they are, again, typ­ ical of Creoles worldwide.) Within three weeks he had learned .other prepositions, and his serial constructions disap­ peared. Note that the monthly sampling that's typical of so-called longitudinal studies would probably have missed this altogether. These are just two out of the many cases where children's ex­ pressions that are quite ungrammatical in the languages they are supposed to be learning would be fully grammatical if what they were learning was a Creole. Which made me think: How do chil­ dren know what they are learning? How could they tell if what they were exposed to was a pidgin, a Creole, or a fully developed language?


pages: 288 words: 97,181

In the Shadow of Man by Jane Goodall

longitudinal study

Finally I reach the point when I must attempt to express my thanks and gratitude to the students who as research assistants have so greatly increased our understanding of chimpanzee behavior. It is difficult in a short space to convey adequately my appreciation of the hard work, patience, and dedication that have in many instances gone into the careful accumulation of the long-term records on individual chimpanzees on which I have drawn so freely in the writing of this book. Without these students a longitudinal study of this sort could not be undertaken and this book could never have been written. At this point I should especially like to acknowledge the help of Edna Koning and Sonia Ivey, who worked so hard in the early pioneering days when our chores were seldom over before ten or eleven o'clock at night. Some assistants have remained with us for a short time only, yet they too have made their contributions to the research: Sue Chaytor, Sally Avery, Pamela Carson, Patti Moehlman, Nicoletta Maraschin, June Cree, Janet Brooks, Sanno Keeler, Sally Puleston, Ben Gray, and Neville Washington.


pages: 302 words: 92,546

Overdiagnosed: Making People Sick in the Pursuit of Health by H. Gilbert Welch, Lisa M. Schwartz, Steven Woloshin

23andMe, double helix, Google Earth, invisible hand, life extension, longitudinal study, mandelbrot fractal, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith

Often, the findings will simply be unclear, and researchers will call for more studies. But don’t hold your breath for the answers. We may never know how to implement the results of genetic testing in medical interventions because the nature of innovative processes in medicine can make it impossible to ever know. Medical theories rarely remain constant over a period of multiple decades, the time span necessary to carry out longitudinal studies. Changing definitions of disease and the rapid evolution of treatments create a catch-22 scenario in which ideas and technologies come in and out of clinical practice long before clinical science catches up with definitive answers about what works. The only certainty about genetic screening is that overdiagnosis is a built-in problem. Why testing cancer genomes may not solve the problem of overdiagnosis Thus far I have focused exclusively on testing the human genome of a specific individual in an attempt to predict his or her likelihood of developing specific diseases.


pages: 291 words: 88,879

Going Solo: The Extraordinary Rise and Surprising Appeal of Living Alone by Eric Klinenberg

big-box store, carbon footprint, David Brooks, deindustrialization, deskilling, employer provided health coverage, equal pay for equal work, estate planning, fear of failure, financial independence, fixed income, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, longitudinal study, mass incarceration, New Urbanism, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rent control, Richard Florida, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Skype, speech recognition, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional

Respondents who had remained married or remained single reported relatively high happiness, whereas those who had coupled up and then separated experienced a sharp drop in life satisfaction, followed by a gradual increase over time. DePaulo discusses the German study in Singled Out: How Singles Are Stereotyped, Stigmatized, and Ignored, and Still Live Happily Ever After (New York: St. Martin’s, 2006), pp. 35–40; she also compares the two studies in her Psychology Today blog at www.psychologytoday.com/blog/living-single/200912/another-longitudinal-study-satisfaction. The Dutch study is Judith Soons, Aart Liefbroer, and Matthijs Kalmijn, “The Long-Term Consequences of Relationship Formation for Subjective Well-Being,” Journal of Marriage and the Family 71 (2009), no. 5: 1254–70. 5. Rose M. Kreider and Jason M. Fields, “Number, Timing, and Duration of Marriages and Divorces: 1996,” U.S. Census Reports, 2002. 6. See Matthew Bramlett and William Mosher, “First Marriage Dissolution, Divorce, and Remarriage: United States,” U.S.


pages: 340 words: 94,464

Randomistas: How Radical Researchers Changed Our World by Andrew Leigh

Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Anton Chekhov, Atul Gawande, basic income, Black Swan, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, Donald Trump, ending welfare as we know it, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science, experimental economics, Flynn Effect, germ theory of disease, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Indoor air pollution, Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Lyft, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Netflix Prize, nudge unit, offshore financial centre, p-value, placebo effect, price mechanism, publication bias, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, recommendation engine, Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, statistical model, Steven Pinker, uber lyft, universal basic income, War on Poverty

The specific examples on Sesame Street curriculum are drawn from Rosemarie Truglio, Valeria Lovelace, Ivelisse Seguí & Susan Scheiner, ‘The varied role of formative research: Case studies From 30 years’ in Fisch & Truglio, G is for Growing, pp. 61–82. 5Alison Gopnik, The Philosophical Baby: What Children’s Minds Tell Us About Truth, Love, and the Meaning of Life, New York: Picador, 2010, p. 11. 6This section draws heavily on Emily Hanford (edited by Catherine Winter), ‘Early Lessons’, American RadioWorks, 2009. Transcript available at http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/preschool/ 7David P. Weikart, ‘Preliminary results from a longitudinal study of disadvantaged preschool children’, paper presented at the 1967 Convention of the Council for Exceptional Children, St. Louis, Missouri. 8Weikart, ‘Preliminary results’. 9Lawrence J. Schweinhart, Jeanne Montie, Zongping Xiang, et al., Lifetime Effects: The High/Scope Perry Preschool Study Through Age 40, Ypsilanti, MI: High/Scope Press, 2005. 10James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, et al., ‘The rate of return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program’, Journal of Public Economics, vol. 94, no. 1, 2010, pp. 114–28 (‘the benefit–cost ratio for the Perry program, accounting for deadweight costs of taxes and assuming a 3% discount rate, ranges from 7 to 12 dollars’). 11In Chicago, a team of economists even set up their own research preschool, the Chicago Heights Early Childhood Center, which operated from 2010 to 2014.


pages: 332 words: 89,668

Two Nations, Indivisible: A History of Inequality in America: A History of Inequality in America by Jamie Bronstein

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, back-to-the-land, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, blue-collar work, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, clean water, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate personhood, crony capitalism, deindustrialization, desegregation, Donald Trump, ending welfare as we know it, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, Gini coefficient, income inequality, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, labor-force participation, land reform, land tenure, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, mandatory minimum, mass incarceration, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, moral panic, mortgage debt, New Urbanism, non-tariff barriers, obamacare, occupational segregation, Occupy movement, oil shock, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price discrimination, race to the bottom, rent control, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Sam Peltzman, Scientific racism, Simon Kuznets, single-payer health, strikebreaker, too big to fail, trade route, transcontinental railway, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, upwardly mobile, urban renewal, wage slave, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working poor, Works Progress Administration

By the time Reagan left office in 1989, the federal debt had risen from $900 billion to $2.6 trillion, and from 33 percent to 51 percent of GDP.16 DEINDUSTRIALIZATION By the mid-1970s, the high growth of the postwar era had slowed, for several reasons. The oil shocks of the 1970s caused a huge outflow of American capital, and the economy stagnated under inflation. Although average incomes rose, rising prices diminished purchasing power for middle-income Americans to 70 percent of what it had been at the beginning of the decade.17 A longitudinal study of Americans’ incomes between 1974 and 1991 showed that, despite the much vaunted American Dream, mobility was very limited. Those who did manage to move up the income scale generally moved only to the next higher quintile. As Figure 7.1 shows, those income differentials, and the ability of wealthier people to invest in a growing stock market, translated into a growing share of financial net wealth (net worth minus home equity) for the top quintile of wealth holders, and falling shares for other quintiles.


pages: 307 words: 94,069

Switch: How to Change Things When Change Is Hard by Chip Heath, Dan Heath

Atul Gawande, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, corporate social responsibility, en.wikipedia.org, fundamental attribution error, impulse control, longitudinal study, medical residency, Piper Alpha, placebo effect, publish or perish, Richard Thaler, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs

This quiz and all the fixed/growth-mindset material come from Carol S. Dweck (2006), Mindset: The New Psychology of Success, New York: Random House. The quiz is on p. 13. Every teacher, coach, manager, and parent should read Dweck’s book. The brain is like a muscle. See Lisa S. Blackwell, Kali H. Trzesniewski, and Carol S. Dweck (2007), “Implicit Theories of Intelligence Predict Achievement Across an Adolescent Transition: A Longitudinal Study and an Intervention,” Child Development, 78, 246–263. Dramatic transformations. The quotation is from Dweck, Mindsets, p. 59. “Failure in the middle.” See Rosabeth Moss Kanter (November 23, 2003), Leadership for Change: Enduring Skills for Change Masters, Harvard Business School Note 9-304-06, Boston: Harvard Business School Press, p. 11, based on her 2001 book Evolve! Succeeding in the Digital Culture of Tomorrow, Boston: Harvard Business School Press.


pages: 334 words: 93,162

This Is Your Country on Drugs: The Secret History of Getting High in America by Ryan Grim

airport security, Alexander Shulgin, anti-communist, back-to-the-land, Burning Man, crack epidemic, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, East Village, failed state, global supply chain, Haight Ashbury, illegal immigration, John Markoff, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, mandatory minimum, new economy, New Urbanism, PIHKAL and TIHKAL, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Steve Jobs, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, union organizing, Upton Sinclair, upwardly mobile, urban decay, women in the workforce

And “the second most frequent problem,” she said, “is not parents endangering children, but rather parents who try to ‘control’ their children, which stifles self-expression.” She was working from a set of assumptions that was backed by more than just pop psychology. At a 1995 Aspen Institute program called “The Challenge of Parenting in the ’90s,” those gathered heard from Harvard professor Stuart T. Hauser, then director of the school’s Judge Baker Children’s Center. Relying on a longitudinal study he published in 1991, he told the conference that the “chances of a teenager experimenting with new ideas and embracing new perceptions are greatly increased when he or she is in a family where curiosity and open-mindedness are valued, and uncertainty is tolerated.” The goal of his research, he said, was to “enhance” parenting “so that it will not interfere, obstruct, or aggravate the greatest difficulties during the teenage years.”


pages: 420 words: 98,309

Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts by Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson

Ayatollah Khomeini, cognitive dissonance, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Donald Trump, false memory syndrome, fear of failure, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, medical malpractice, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, Nelson Mandela, placebo effect, psychological pricing, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, social intelligence, telemarketer, the scientific method, trade route, transcontinental railway, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!

This assumption of the cycle of abuse came from observations of confirming cases: abusive parents, in jail or in therapy, reporting that they were severely beaten or sexually abused by their own parents. What is missing are the disconfirming cases: the abused children who do not grow up to become abusive parents. They are invisible to social workers and other mental-health professionals because, by definition, they don't end up in prison or treatment. Research psychologists who have done longitudinal studies, following children over time, have found that while being physically abused as a child is associated with an increased chance of becoming an abusive parent, the great majority of abused children—nearly 70 percent—do not repeat their parents' cruelties. 19 If you are doing therapy with a victim of parental abuse or with an abusive parent, this information may not be relevant to you. But if you are in a position to make predictions that will affect whether, say, a parent should lose custody, it most surely is.


The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World by Iain McGilchrist

Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, computer age, Donald Trump, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter, epigenetics, experimental subject, Fellow of the Royal Society, Georg Cantor, hedonic treadmill, Henri Poincaré, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, meta analysis, meta-analysis, music of the spheres, Necker cube, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, Sapir-Whorf hypothesis, Schrödinger's Cat, social intelligence, social web, source of truth, stem cell, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind

., ‘Religious and mystical states: a neurophysiological model’, Zygon: Journal of Religion & Science, 1993, 28(2), pp. 177–99 d’Aquili, E. & Newberg, A., The Mystical Mind: Probing the Biology of Religion, Fortress Press, Minneapolis MN, 1999 d’Esposito, M., Detre, J. A., Alsop, D. C. et al., ‘The neural basis of the central executive system of working memory’, Nature, 1995, 378(6554), pp. 279–81 Dagenbach, D., Harris, L. J. & Fitzgerald, H. E., ‘A longitudinal study of lateral biases in parents’ cradling and holding of infants’, Infant Mental Health, 1988, 9(3), pp. 218–34 Dagge, M. & Hartje, W., ‘Influence of contextual complexity on the processing of cartoons by patients with unilateral lesions’, Cortex, 1985, 21(4), pp. 607–16 Damasio, A. R., Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason and the Human Brain, Grosset/Putnam, New York, 1994a ——, ‘Descartes’ error and the future of human life’, Scientific American, 1994b, 271(4), p. 144 Damasio, A.

., ‘A bird is a bird is a bird: making reference within and without superordinate categories’, Brain and Language, 1981, 12(2), pp. 313–31 ——, ‘Drawing deficits in brain-damaged patients’ freehand pictures’, Brain and Cognition, 1988, 8(2), pp. 189–205 Grunwald, M., Weiss, T., Assmann, B. et al., ‘Stable asymmetric interhemispheric theta power in patients with anorexia nervosa during haptic perception even after weight gain: a longitudinal study’, Journal of Clinical and Experimental Neuropsychology, 2004, 26(5), pp. 608–20 Grüsser, O.-J., ‘Mother–child holding patterns in Western art: a developmental study’, Ethology and Sociobiology, 1983, 4(2), pp. 89–94 Grüsser, O.-J., Selke, T. & Zynda, B., ‘Cerebral lateralisation and some implications for art, aesthetic perception and artistic creativity’, in Rentschler, I., Herzberger, B. & Epstein, D.

., ‘Comparison of mania and depression after brain injury: causal factors’, American Journal of Psychiatry, 1988, 145(2), pp. 172–8 Robinson, R. G., Kubos, K. L., Starr, L. B. et al., ‘Mood disorders in stroke patients: importance of location of lesion’, Brain, 1984, 107(1), pp. 81–93 Robinson, R. G. & Price, T. R., ‘Post-stroke depressive disorders: a follow-up study of 103 patients’, Stroke, 1982, 13(5), pp. 635–41 Robinson, R. G., Starr, L. B., Lipsey, J. R. et al., ‘A two-year longitudinal study of post-stroke mood disorders. In-hospital prognostic factors associated with six-month outcome’, Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 1985, 173(4), pp. 221–6 Robinson, R. G. & Szetela, B., ‘Mood change following left hemispheric brain injury’, Annals of Neurology, 1981, 9(5), pp. 447–53 Rogers, L. J., ‘Evolution of hemisphere specialisation: advantages and disadvantages’, Brain and Language, 2000, 73(2), pp. 236–53 ——, ‘Lateralization in vertebrates: its early evolution, general pattern and development’, in Slater, P.


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The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows

agricultural Revolution, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dematerialisation, demographic transition, financial independence, game design, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), longitudinal study, means of production, new economy, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review

Figure 2-5 World Annual Population Increase World Population Prospects 2000 (New York: United Nations, 2000). Donald J. Bogue, Principles of Demography (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1969). Figure 2-6 Demographic Transitions in Industrialized Countries and in Less Industrialized Countries Nathan Keyfitz and W. Flieger, World Population: an Analysis of Vital Data (Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press, 1968). J. Chesnais, The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications; a Longitudinal Study of Sixty-Seven Countries Covering the Period 1720-1984 (New York Oxford University Press, 1992). Demographic Yearbook (New York: United Nations, various years). World Population Data Sheet (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau) http: / / www.prb.org (accessed in various years). United Kingdom Office of Population Censuses & Surveys, Population Trends, no. 52 (London: HMSO, June 1988).


pages: 241 words: 90,538

Unequal Britain: Equalities in Britain Since 1945 by Pat Thane

Ayatollah Khomeini, British Empire, call centre, collective bargaining, equal pay for equal work, full employment, gender pay gap, longitudinal study, mass immigration, moral panic, Neil Kinnock, old-boy network, pensions crisis, sexual politics, Stephen Hawking, unpaid internship, women in the workforce

Source: GAD 2002 based population projection, Pensions Commission analysis, Pensions: Challenges and Choices, p. 6. 26 U N E Q UA L B R I TA I N Accept a lower standard of living in retirement Look to government to fund higher pensions Save more of your wage/salary each month Work beyond the standard age of retirement 0 10 20 30 40 Figure 1.4 Preferred responses to the demographic challenge Source: Pensions and Savings Index, Survey 1 (Sep. 2003) by YouGov for the Association of British Insurers, Pensions: Challenges and Choices, p. 23. 100 80 60 40 20 0 IRL GR FI BE UK PT AT SP SW EU15 FR GE IT LU NE Figure 1.5 Median income of people aged 65+ as a percentage of median income of people aged less than 65: 2001 Source: Eurostat, European Community Household Panel Users Survey Database (ECHP-UDB), July 2003, Pensions: Challenges and Choices, p. 23. 27 O L D E R P E O P L E A N D E Q UA L I T Y 50 40 30 20 10 0 NL LU SW GE IT EU15 FR SP FI AT UK BE PT GR IRL Figure 1.6 Percentage of people aged 65+ with income below 60% of median employment Source: Eurostat, ECHP-UDB, version July 2003, Pensions: Challenges and Choices, p. 69. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 1973 1975 1977 Men aged 50–64 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 Women aged 50–59 Figure 1.7 Employment rates for men and women aged 50 to state pension age: 1973–95 Source: General Household Survey, GB, Pensions: Challenges and Choices, p. 36. 28 U N E Q UA L B R I TA I N Richest 4th 3rd 2nd Poorest 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Retired or semi-retired Other reasons e.g. unemployed, sick, caring for spouse etc. Figure 1.8 Inactivity by wealth quintile: Men aged 55–9 Source: English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 2002, Pensions: Challenges and Choices, p. 36. 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 OECD men OECD women Pensions Commission men Pensions Commission women 2004 Figure 1.9 Trends in mean age of retirement Source: Blondel and Scarpetta (1999), Pension Commission estimates, World Economic Forum, Pensions: Challenges and Choices, p. 55. Chapter 2 Race and equality Nick Kimber TIMELINE 1290 1905 1931 1948 1950 1958 1959 1962 1964 1965 1968 Jews expelled from England until late seventeenth century.


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The Sum of Small Things: A Theory of the Aspirational Class by Elizabeth Currid-Halkett

assortative mating, back-to-the-land, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, clean water, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, discrete time, disruptive innovation, Downton Abbey, East Village, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Etonian, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, income inequality, iterative process, knowledge economy, longitudinal study, Mason jar, means of production, NetJets, new economy, New Urbanism, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post scarcity, post-industrial society, profit maximization, Richard Florida, selection bias, Silicon Valley, The Design of Experiments, the High Line, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the market place, Thorstein Veblen, Tony Hsieh, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, upwardly mobile, Veblen good, women in the workforce

Kahneman and Deaton find that those who were wealthier experienced feelings of accomplishment and being in the right place in their life journey. In other words, possessing financial resources is correlated with satisfaction but not necessarily with the true sense of contentment or joy that happiness brings.1 Why? Wealth and the consumption avenues it opens become an effective means for comparing one’s success and achievement to others but are not necessarily in and of themselves a source of happiness. Similarly, in dramatic longitudinal studies of both developed and developing countries, a team of researchers found that increases in per capita income and GDP do not translate into durable life satisfaction. In some cases, increases in wealth actually result in declines in happiness. Known as the “happiness-income paradox” or the “Easterlin paradox” (after the economist Richard Easterlin who discovered the phenomenon), the researchers conclude that although in the short term economic expansions increase happiness, over the long term there is no significant relationship.2 American consumers know this irony only too well.


pages: 343 words: 101,563

The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming by David Wallace-Wells

"Robert Solow", agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Asian financial crisis, augmented reality, basic income, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, cognitive bias, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, Donald Trump, effective altruism, Elon Musk, endowment effect, energy transition, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, failed state, fiat currency, global pandemic, global supply chain, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Joan Didion, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labor-force participation, life extension, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, megacity, megastructure, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, nuclear winter, Pearl River Delta, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, postindustrial economy, quantitative easing, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sam Altman, Silicon Valley, Skype, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, the built environment, the scientific method, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, Whole Earth Catalog, William Langewiesche, Y Combinator

spikes in proper inpatient admissions: Alana Hansen et al., “The Effect of Heat Waves on Mental Health in a Temperate Australian City,” Environmental Health Perspectives 116, no. 10 (October 2008): pp. 1369–75, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.11339. Schizophrenics, especially: Roni Shiloh et al., “A Significant Correlation Between Ward Temperature and the Severity of Symptoms in Schizophrenia Inpatients: A Longitudinal Study,” European Neuropsychopharmacology 17, no. 6–7 (May–June 2007): pp. 478–82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroneuro.2006.12.001. mood disorders, anxiety disorders: Hansen, “The Effect of Heat Waves on Mental Health,” https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.11339. Each increase of a single degree: Marshall Burke et al., “Higher Temperatures Increase Suicide Rates in the United States and Mexico,” Nature Climate Change 8 (July 2018): pp. 723–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0222-x. 59,000 suicides: Tamma Carleton, “Crop-Damaging Temperatures Increase Suicide Rates in India,” Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences 114, no. 33 (August 2017): pp. 8746–51, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701354114.


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The Truth Machine: The Blockchain and the Future of Everything by Paul Vigna, Michael J. Casey

3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, altcoin, Amazon Web Services, barriers to entry, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, blockchain, blood diamonds, Blythe Masters, business process, buy and hold, carbon footprint, cashless society, cloud computing, computer age, computerized trading, conceptual framework, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cyber-physical system, dematerialisation, disintermediation, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, failed state, fault tolerance, fiat currency, financial innovation, financial intermediation, global supply chain, Hernando de Soto, hive mind, informal economy, intangible asset, Internet of things, Joi Ito, Kickstarter, linked data, litecoin, longitudinal study, Lyft, M-Pesa, Marc Andreessen, market clearing, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Network effects, off grid, pets.com, prediction markets, pre–internet, price mechanism, profit maximization, profit motive, ransomware, rent-seeking, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ross Ulbricht, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart contracts, smart meter, Snapchat, social web, software is eating the world, supply-chain management, Ted Nelson, the market place, too big to fail, trade route, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, Turing complete, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, universal basic income, web of trust, zero-sum game

That’s a dynamic that’s been building for decades, but it was made worse by the financial crisis, as well as the policies imposed since then to prop up the financial markets in which the rich hold their assets. It’s one reason people both within and outside the United States believe they’ve been shortchanged by the institutions that had throughout the twentieth century delivered progress and prosperity. This is clear in Pew Research’s ongoing longitudinal study of trust in government in the United States, which puts trust near historic lows (about 20 percent in May 2017). A separate survey by Gallop showed that only 12 percent of U.S. citizens trusted Congress in 2017, down from 40 percent in 1979; that about 27 percent trusted what they heard from newspapers, compared with 51 percent thirty-eight years earlier; and that 21 percent trusted big business, down from 32 percent.


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The Upside of Inequality by Edward Conard

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, assortative mating, bank run, Berlin Wall, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, future of work, Gini coefficient, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, informal economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the telephone, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, liquidity trap, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, offshore financial centre, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, survivorship bias, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, total factor productivity, twin studies, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, University of East Anglia, upwardly mobile, War on Poverty, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, zero-sum game

Another large opportunity for harvesting America’s underutilized talent and putting it to work creating more productive jobs for others is finding top-scoring students who have not graduated from college and training them to be better job creators. For top-scoring students, the value of additional college-level training is likely greater than mere credentialing. According to the National Center of Education Statistics’ longitudinal study of students in 2002, 74 percent of high school sophomores from families in the top quartile of income who score in the top 25 percent graduate from college with at least a bachelor’s degree. Only 41 percent of top-scoring students from families in the lowest quintile earn bachelor’s degrees or higher. Similarly, only 53 percent of top-scoring students in the middle two quintiles earn bachelor’s degrees or higher.62 Finding a way to increase the graduation rate of top-scoring, middle- and low-income students to the same rate as the top income quartile would increase top-scoring college graduates by 20 percent.


pages: 321 words: 97,661

How to Read a Paper: The Basics of Evidence-Based Medicine by Trisha Greenhalgh

call centre, complexity theory, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, deskilling, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, New Journalism, p-value, personalized medicine, placebo effect, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, the scientific method

Bristol: BMJ Books, 2000. 13 Appel LJ, Miller ER, Charleston J. Improving the measurement of blood pressure: is it time for regulated standards? Annals of Internal Medicine. 2011;154(12):838–9. 14 Sackett DL, Haynes RB, Tugwell P. Clinical epidemiology: a basic science for clinical medicine. Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1985. 15 Holmström B, Johansson M, Bergh A, et al. Prostate specific antigen for early detection of prostate cancer: longitudinal study. BMJ: British Medical Journal 2009;339:b3537. 16 Barry M, Denberg T, Owens D, et al. Screening for prostate cancer: a guidance statement from the Clinical Guidelines Committee of the American College of Physicians. Annals of Internal Medicine 2013;158:761–9. 17 Guyatt GH, Patterson C, Ali M, et al. Diagnosis of iron-deficiency anemia in the elderly. The American Journal of Medicine 1990;88(3):205–9. 18 Fagan TJ.


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