Checklist Manifesto

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pages: 742 words: 137,937

The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts by Richard Susskind, Daniel Susskind


23andMe, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, AI winter, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, Andrew Keen, Atul Gawande, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, Bill Joy: nanobots, business process, business process outsourcing, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, Clapham omnibus, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer age, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, death of newspapers, disintermediation, Douglas Hofstadter,, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, full employment, future of work, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Hacker Ethic, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, James Hargreaves, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, lifelogging, lump of labour, Marshall McLuhan, Metcalfe’s law, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Network effects, optical character recognition, Paul Samuelson, personalized medicine, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, semantic web, Shoshana Zuboff, Skype, social web, speech recognition, spinning jenny, strong AI, supply-chain management, telepresence, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, Turing test, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, young professional

<> for the USA, <> for the UK, and <> for Japan. 14 Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age (2014), ch. 12. 15 Most notably, the Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002 (enacted 30 July 2002), known also as the ‘Public Company Accounting Reform and Investor Protection Act’. This is part of the federal law of the USA. 16 See e.g. Glasgow Herald, 18 Nov.1985, p. 15. 17 <> (accessed 23 March 2015). 18 Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto (2010), 34. 19 Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto, 36. 20 See Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks—How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom (2006). 21 <>. 22 See Eric Topol, The Patient Will See You Now (2015), on driverless cars and doctorless patients. 23 Penelope Eckert, ‘Communities of Practice’, in The Encyclopedia of Language and Linguistics, ed. Keith Brown (2006). 24 James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds (2004). 25 See e.g.

One source of confusion with this term is that many ‘public goods’ also turn out to be good for the public—things like clean air, street-lighting, and national security, are public goods in the formal economic sense, and in the more general sense. 4 Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom (2006), 37. 5 Kenneth Neil Cukier and Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, ‘The Rise of Big Data’, Foreign Affairs (May–June 2013) <> (accessed 25 March 2015). 6 Hal Varian, ‘Markets for Information Goods’, University of California, Berkeley, 16 Oct. 1998 <> (accessed 25 March 2015). 7 This is a heavily revised version of the model laid out in Richard Susskind, The End of Lawyers? (2008), ch. 2. 8 See previous reference in Ch. 2, n. 252. 9 Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto (2010), 13. 10 Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto, 19. 11 See e.g. James Boyle, The Public Domain (2010). 12 Lawrence Lessig, The Future of Ideas (2001), 20. 13 Elinor Ostrom, Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (1990), 14. 14 Hal Varian, ‘Versioning: The Smart Way to Sell Information’, in Markets of One, ed. James Gilmore and Joseph Pine (2000), 134. 15 See e.g. Langdon Winner, who writes: ‘the basic conceit is always the same: new technology will bring universal wealth, enhanced freedom, revitalized politics, satisfying community, and personal fulfillment.’

A quotation from Antonio Weiss, ‘Harold Bloom, The Art of Criticism No. 1’, Paris Review, 118 (Spring, 1991) <> (accessed 23 March 2015). 2 Eric Topol, The Patient Will See You Now (2015), 5. 3 ‘Policy: Improving quality of life for people with long term conditions’, Department of Health, 25 Mar. 2013 <> (accessed 6 March 2015). 4 Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto (2010). 5 The OECD estimates that per capita visits to US doctors is 4 per annum (a 2010 figure). If US population is ~320 million (a 2014 figure), then average visits are 1.28bn per annum, and 107m per month (assuming the per capita visits have changed little). In contrast, the WebMD network has 190m unique users per month (and over 1bn pages views a month). For the data, see ‘Doctors’ consultations: Number per capita’, Health: Key Tables from OECD No.40, OECD, 30 June 2014 <> (accessed 25 March 2015).

pages: 182 words: 56,961

The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right by Atul Gawande


Airbus A320, Atul Gawande, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, index card, John Snow's cholera map, megacity, RAND corporation, Tenerife airport disaster, US Airways Flight 1549, William Langewiesche

ALSO BY ATUL GAWANDE BETTER: A SURGEON’S NOTES ON PERFORMANCE COMPLICATIONS: A SURGEON’S NOTES ON AN IMPERFECT SCIENCE THE CHECKLIST MANIFESTO ATUL GAWANDE THE CHECKLIST MANIFESTO: HOW TO GET THINGS RIGHT METROPOLITAN BOOKS HENRY HOLT AND COMPANY NEW YORK Metropolitan Books Henry Holt and Company, LLC Publishers since 1866 175 Fifth Avenue New York, New York 10010 Metropolitan Books® and ® are registered trademarks of Henry Holt and Company, LLC. Copyright © 2009 by Atul Gawande All rights reserved. Distributed in Canada by H. B. Fenn and Company Ltd. Some material in this book originally appeared in the New Yorker essay “The Checklist” in different form. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data are available. ISBN: 978-0-8050-9174-8 Henry Holt books are available for special promotions and premiums.

First Edition 2010 Designed by Meryl Sussman Levavi Printed in the United States of America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 For Hunter, Hattie, and Walker CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1. THE PROBLEM OF EXTREME COMPLEXITY 2. THE CHECKLIST 3. THE END OF THE MASTER BUILDER 4. THE IDEA 5. THE FIRST TRY 6. THE CHECKLIST FACTORY 7. THE TEST 8. THE HERO IN THE AGE OF CHECKLISTS 9. THE SAVE NOTES ON SOURCES ACKNOWLEDGMENTS THE CHECKLIST MANIFESTO INTRODUCTION I was chatting with a medical school friend of mine who is now a general surgeon in San Francisco. We were trading war stories, as surgeons are apt to do. One of John’s was about a guy who came in on Halloween night with a stab wound. He had been at a costume party. He got into an altercation. And now here he was. He was stable, breathing normally, not in pain, just drunk and babbling to the trauma team.

pages: 309 words: 114,984

The Digital Doctor: Hope, Hype, and Harm at the Dawn of Medicine’s Computer Age by Robert Wachter


activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, Airbnb, Atul Gawande, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, computer age, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, deskilling,, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Firefox, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Google Glasses, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Internet of things, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, lifelogging, medical malpractice, medical residency, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, personalized medicine,, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, Snapchat, software as a service, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the payments system, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Toyota Production System, Uber for X, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Yogi Berra

,” Politico Pro, September 3, 2014, available at 120 Larry Fagan, the retired Stanford informatics expert Interview of Fagan by the author, August 7, 2014. 121 studies have shown that a patient’s identity B. Malin and L. Sweeney, “A Secure Protocol to Distribute Unlinkable Health Data,” JAMIA Proceedings 2005: 485–489 (2005). 121 “It collected 19 million data points on me” Interview of Vinod Khosla by the author, April 29, 2014. 121 In The Checklist Manifesto, the author and surgeon A. Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2009). 122 Gawande described the findings to me Interview of Atul Gawande by the author, July 28, 2014. 122 Mark Smith recalled his experience Interview of Smith by the author, July 24, 2014. Chapter 12: The Error 127 “It may seem a strange principle” F. Nightingale, Notes on Hospitals (London: Longman, 1859). 127 a rare genetic disease called NEMO syndrome For more detail, see “NEMO Deficiency Syndrome,” available at 128 Levitt recalls that moment as the worst of her life Interview of the nurse (Brooke Levitt is a pseudonym) by the author, May 10, 2014. 128 nothing close had ever been reported in the medical literature An overview of what is known is available at

Advance Praise for The Digital Doctor “The Digital Doctor is the eye-opening, well-told, and frustrating story of how computerization is pulling medicine apart with only a vague promise of putting it back together again. I kept thinking, ‘Exactly!’ while reading it, and that is a measure of Wachter’s accomplishment in telling the tale. This is the real story of what it’s like to practice medicine in the midst of a painful, historic, and often dangerous transition.” —Atul Gawande author of Being Mortal and The Checklist Manifesto “As scientific breakthroughs and information technology transform the practice of medicine, Bob Wachter is one of the few people with the insight, credibility, and investigative skills to go from the trenches to the observation booth. The Digital Doctor is first of all a personal journey, as Wachter travels the country, meets with key players who are shaping our future, and wrestles with their views.

Khosla conceded that today, a good physician could judge his health more accurately —by talking to and examining him and running some standard tests—than a computer could by analyzing these bits of data. But, he continued, “Once we have readings on 100 million people, it will become more valuable. It’s not the data. It’s the complex math that creates insights about that data.” And yet … and yet, as I reflect on the complexity of the problem, my instincts tell me that Khosla might not quite get it. In The Checklist Manifesto, the author and surgeon Atul Gawande recounted a study that vividly illustrates this complexity. In a single year, the trauma centers in the state of Pennsylvania saw 41,000 patients, who had 1,224 different injuries. Taken together, there were 32,261 unique combinations of injuries. Gawande described the findings to me in more detail: Someone stabbed in the eye, and stabbed in the belly.

pages: 263 words: 75,455

Quantitative Value: A Practitioner's Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors by Wesley R. Gray, Tobias E. Carlisle


activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, asset allocation, Atul Gawande, backtesting, beat the dealer, Black Swan, capital asset pricing model, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, compound rate of return, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, discounted cash flows, Edward Thorp, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, forensic accounting, hindsight bias, intangible asset, Louis Bachelier, p-value, passive investing, performance metric, quantitative hedge fund, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, short selling, statistical model, survivorship bias, systematic trading, The Myth of the Rational Market, time value of money, transaction costs

In the first 18 months of the study, the hospitals saved an estimated $175 million in costs and more than 1,500 lives. The successes have been sustained for almost four years—all, writes Gawande, because of “a stupid little checklist.” The implications are clear: intensivists need checklists to walk them step-by-step through the complex ICU processes. Gawande eventually turned his article into the best-selling book, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right,16. which argues for a broader implementation of checklists. Gawande believes that in many fields, the problem is not a lack of knowledge but in making sure we apply the knowledge we do have consistently and correctly. He includes examples of successes in fields as diverse as weather prediction, skyscraper construction, and, yes, even investment. NOTES 1. Warren Buffett, “Shareholder Letter,” Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.

Joel Greenblatt, “Adding Your Two Cents May Cost a Lot Over the Long Term.” Perspectives, Morningstar, January 16, 2012; 15. Atul Gawande, “The Checklist.” The New Yorker, Annals of Medicine (December 10, 2007); 16. Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2009). PART TWO Margin of Safety—How to Avoid a Permanent Loss of Capital In Part Two, we describe the first step in our checklist: how to avoid stocks at risk of a permanent loss of capital. The potential for a total loss manifests in three ways: financial statement manipulation, fraud, and financial distress and bankruptcy. All are three different risks, but are closely related and frequently found together.

Availability bias Ayres, Ian Bachelier, Louis Bailey, Morris Bankruptcy prediction history of improving Batchelor, Roy Beat the Dealer (Thorp) Beat the Market: A Scientific Stock Market System (Thorp & Kassouf) Behavioral errors, quantitative investing's protection against cognitive biases experts' errors value investors'errors Behavioral Investing: A Practitioners Guide to Applying Behavioral Finance (Montier) Benchmarking Beneish, Messod Berk, Jonathan Bogue, Marcus Bonaime, Alice Book value-to-market capitalization ratio Brooks, Chris Buffett, Warren See's Candies acquisition Buybacks Campbell, John Cash flow on assets (CFOA) CGM Focus Fund Chava, Sudheer “The Checklist” (Gawande) The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (Gawande) Chuvakhin, Nikolai Cloning Cognitive biases adjustment bias anchoring availability bias hindsight bias neglect of the base case overconfidence self-attribution bias Confirmation bias “Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk” (Lakonishok, Schleifer, & Vishny) Cowles, Alfred, III “The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns” (Fama & French) Data mining “Decoding Inside Information” (Cohen, Malloy, & Pomorski) “Delisting Returns and Their Effect on Accounting-Based Market Anomalies” (Price, Beaver, & McNichols) Dumb money, paradox of behavioral errors, quantitative investing's protection against cognitive biases experts' errors value investors'errors quantitative value investing, power of value strategies Graham's quantitative Earnings manipulators and frauds, eliminating accruals detecting earnings manipulation PROBMs, predicting Enron Earnings yield Efficient market theory Einhorn, David Enron Enterprise yield (EBITDA and EBIT variations) Expert Political Judgment (Tetlock) Fama, Eugene Financial distress, measuring risk of bankruptcy prediction history of improving calculating universe, scrubbing Financial strength case study: Lubrizol Corporation comparing performance of F_SCORE and FS_SCORE financial strength score (FS_SCORE) current profitability formula and interpretation recent operational improvements stability Piotroski Fundamental Score (F_SCORE) analyzing formula and interpretation Fooled by Randomness (Taleb) Forward earnings estimate Franchises finding economic moats and excess returns persistence pricing power and big, stable margins See's Candies, acquisition by Buffett Fraud.

pages: 240 words: 73,209

The Education of a Value Investor: My Transformative Quest for Wealth, Wisdom, and Enlightenment by Guy Spier


Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, Benoit Mandelbrot, big-box store, Black Swan, Checklist Manifesto, Clayton Christensen, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Exxon Valdez, Gordon Gekko, housing crisis, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Kenneth Arrow, Long Term Capital Management, Mahatma Gandhi, mandelbrot fractal, NetJets, pattern recognition, pre–internet, random walk, Ronald Reagan, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, winner-take-all economy, young professional, zero-sum game

They studied the 13F filings of about 20 smart value investors (including firms like Southeastern Asset Management and Fairholme Capital Management), counting as a mistake any investment they had sold at a loss. The students then read through the investors’ public statements and annual letters to reconstruct the thinking behind these failed investments. Gawande himself became intrigued by what we were doing. He interviewed Mohnish and me, and he wrote a few pages about us in his 2009 bestseller The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right. Among other things, he mentioned Mohnish’s realization that he had “repeatedly erred” in underestimating the riskiness of leveraged companies. As I suggested to Gawande, part of the problem might lie in what I described as “cocaine brain”: the intoxicating prospect of making money can arouse the same reward circuits in the brain that are stimulated by drugs, making the rational mind ignore supposedly extraneous details that are actually very relevant.

Or, A Good Hard Look at Wall Street by Fred Schwed Your Money and Your Brain: How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich by Jason Zweig Literature 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel García Márquez Hamlet by William Shakespeare Jonathan Livingston Seagull by Richard Bach Oliver Twist by Charles Dickens Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values by Robert Pirsig Miscellaneous Autobiography: The Story of My Experiments with the Truth by Mahatma Gandhi City Police by Jonathan Rubinstein Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage by Alfred Lansing Long Walk to Freedom: The Autobiography of Nelson Mandela by Nelson Mandela Metaphors We Live By by George Lakoff and Mark Johnson Reagan: A Life in Letters by Ronald Reagan The Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin by Benjamin Franklin The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right by Atul Gawande The Hero with a Thousand Faces by Joseph Campbell The New British Constitution by Vernon Bogdanor The Power of Myth by Joseph Campbell with Bill Moyers Vor 1914: Erinnerungen an Frankfurt geschrieben in Israel by Selmar Spier Walden: or, Life in the Woods by Henry David Thoreau Why America Is Not a New Rome by Vaclav Smil Philosophy and Theology A Theory of Justice by John Rawls Anarchy, the State, and Utopia by Robert Nozick Destination Torah: Reflections on the Weekly Torah Readings by Isaac Sassoon Halakhic Man by Joseph Soloveitchik Letters from a Stoic by Lucius Annaeus Seneca Man’s Search for Meaning by Viktor Frankl Meditations by Marcus Aurelius Pirke Avot: A Modern Commentary on Jewish Ethics by Leonard Kravits and Kerry Olitzky Plato, not Prozac!

See also letters to shareholders Aquamarine Chemicals, 42–3 Aquamarine Fund assets reach $50 million, 49–50 and Bear Stearns, 86–7 creation and naming of, 43 cumulative return, 2 and fee structures, 46–7 and financial crisis of 2008–2009, 86–99 investment of net worth in, 46 and Lehman Brothers, 87–8 Ariely, Dan, 102 attention deficit disorder (ADD), 48, 107–8, 155 authenticity, 33, 42, 63, 66–7, 76, 81, 84, 132 Bak, Per, 105 Bank of America, 126–7 Bear Stearns, 86–7 behavioral finance, 60, 102–9, 115, 117–18, 125, 135–8, 140–1, 143, 147–50, 154, 191 behaviorism, 28 Benello, Allen, 112, 144 Berkshire Hathaway, 46, 59, 82, 142, 192 annual meetings, 41, 61, 71–2, 178 annual reports, 38–9, 63, 142 and Buffett’s salary, 73, 116 as a company rather than a fund, 94–5 decentralized structure of, 81 holdings, 40–1, 78, 125, 137, 153 and the tech bubble, 71 textile operations, 17–18 See also Buffett, Warren Bernanke, Ben, 87 Bettger, Frank, 6 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, 78, 185 Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, The (Taleb), 109 Blodget, Henry, 17 Bloomberg terminal/monitor, 2, 52, 87, 116–19, 135–6, 146 Blumkin, Rose, 41–2, 177 Bogdanor, Vernon, 25 Bond Markets, Analysis and Strategies (Fabozzi), 18–19 Bosanek, Debbie, 82, 176, 181 Boulder Brands, 167–70 Brandt, Jonathan, 144, 178 Braxton Associates, 28–9 bridge, 122, 124–8, 130 Brookfield Office Properties, 97–8 Buffett, Howard, 116 Buffett, Susan, 75, 79, 174–5 Buffett, Warren, 37, 53, 55, 90 annual Berkshire salary, 73, 116 and bridge, 124 on debt, 93 father of, 116 on fear, 85 and fee structures, 46–7, 67, 74 and financial crisis of 2008–2009, 90 on first rule of investing, 52 generosity of, 115, 175–6, 178–9, 185 guest talk at HBS, 28–30, 42 and the “inner/outer scorecard,” 26, 65, 80–1 integrity of, 36 and investment decisions, 17–18, 24, 53, 90, 127, 136–7, 148, 165 on learning from mistakes, 2 Letters to Shareholders, 39, 63, 93 as life-long learner, 29–30 on love, 175 Lowenstein’s biography of, 19, 30, 63, 116, 142 lunch with, 1–2, 22, 69–84, 98 and management, 110–11, 163 mistakes of, 17–18, 153 office of, 35, 95, 111–17, 143 playfulness of, 116, 121–2, 131 preface to The Intelligent Investor, 19, 30 on reputation, 18 as role model, 39–40, 46, 63, 71, 83, 96, 113, 115–16, 122, 176 Schroeder’s biography of, 83, 142 “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville,” 37, 82 “Too Hard” box of, 116, 170, 180 and wealth, 78, 82, 188 See also Berkshire Hathaway Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist (Lowenstein), 19, 30, 63, 116, 142 Buffett-Pabrai Way of doing business, 171–85 Burlington Coat Factory, 36 Burlington Northern Santa Fe, 137 Burns, C. A., 13 Burry, Michael, 90 buying and selling, rule for timing of, 145–6 BYD Auto, 125–6 Byrd, Aaron, 63 Cameron, David, 25, 76 Campbell, Joseph, 25 Capotorto, Vito, 15 CarMax, 97, 165–6 checking stock prices, rule for, 135–7 “Checklist, The” (Gawande), 152–3 Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right, The (Gawande), 154 chess, 18, 36, 128–30 Christakis, Nicholas, 172, 177 Churchill, Winston, 115 Cialdini, Robert, 1, 60–1, 148, 162 Coca-Cola, 40, 78, 137, 178 commuting to work, 113 complexity of economic world, 104–5, 151–2 CORT Furniture, 153 Costco, 164–5 Cresud, 97–8, 149 Cunniff, Carley, 37–8. See also Ruane Cunniff D.

pages: 669 words: 210,153

Tools of Titans: The Tactics, Routines, and Habits of Billionaires, Icons, and World-Class Performers by Timothy Ferriss


Airbnb, Alexander Shulgin, artificial general intelligence, asset allocation, Atul Gawande, augmented reality, back-to-the-land, Bernie Madoff, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Black Swan, blue-collar work, Buckminster Fuller, business process, Cal Newport, call centre, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, Colonization of Mars, Columbine, commoditize, correlation does not imply causation, David Brooks, David Graeber, diversification, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, effective altruism, Elon Musk, fault tolerance, fear of failure, Firefox, follow your passion, future of work, Google X / Alphabet X, Howard Zinn, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Lao Tzu, life extension, lifelogging, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Mason jar, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nicholas Carr, optical character recognition, PageRank, passive income, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, peer-to-peer, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Singer: altruism, Peter Thiel, phenotype, PIHKAL and TIHKAL, post scarcity, premature optimization, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, rent-seeking, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, sharing economy, side project, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, Skype, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, software is eating the world, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, superintelligent machines, Tesla Model S, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas L Friedman, Wall-E, Washington Consensus, Whole Earth Catalog, Y Combinator, zero-sum game

An openness to indirect paths means I don’t obsess over selling my “content,” and I never have. My network, partially built through writing, is my net worth. If you want to increase your income 10x instead of 10%, the best opportunities are often seemingly out of left field (e.g., books → startups). Checklists Ramit and I are both obsessed with checklists and love a book by Atul Gawande titled The Checklist Manifesto. I have this book on a shelf in my living room, cover out, as a constant reminder. Atul Gawande is also one of Malcolm Gladwell’s (page 572) favorite innovators. Ramit builds checklists for as many business processes as possible, which he organizes using software called Basecamp. Google “entrepreneurial bus count” for a good article on why checklists can save your startup. ✸ Who do you think of when you hear the word “successful”?

Unbolded books were recommended or mentioned by the guest, but not specifically “most-gifted.” Which books came up the most? Here are the top 17—everything with 3 or more mentions—in descending order of frequency: Tao Te Ching by Lao Tzu (5 mentions) Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand (4) Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari (4) Siddhartha by Hermann Hesse (4) The 4-Hour Workweek by Tim Ferriss (4) The Checklist Manifesto by Atul Gawande (4) Dune by Frank Herbert (3) Influence by Robert Cialdini (3) Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert (3) Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom (3) Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman! by Richard P. Feynman (3) The 4-Hour Body by Tim Ferriss (3) The Bible (3) The Hard Thing About Hard Things by Ben Horowitz (3) The War of Art by Steven Pressfield (3) Watchmen by Alan Moore (3) Zero to One by Peter Thiel with Blake Masters (3) Enjoy!

Hamilton), Mountain Light (Galen Rowell) Gladwell, Malcolm: Strangers to Ourselves: Discovering the Adaptive Unconscious (Timothy D. Wilson), Merchant Princes: An Intimate History of Jewish Families Who Built Great Department Stores (Leon A. Harris), Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Little Drummer’s Girl; The Russia House; The Spy Who Came in from the Cold (John le Carré), The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine (Michael Lewis), The Checklist Manifesto (Atul Gawande), all of Lee Child’s books Godin, Seth: Makers; Little Brother (Cory Doctorow), Understanding Comics (Scott McCloud), Snow Crash; The Diamond Age (Neal Stephenson), Dune (Frank Herbert), Pattern Recognition (William Gibson) AUDIOBOOKS: The Recorded Works (Pema Chödrön), Debt (David Graeber), Just Kids (Patti Smith), The Art of Possibility (Rosamund Stone Zander and Benjamin Zander), Zig Ziglar’s Secrets of Closing the Sale (Zig Ziglar), The War of Art (Steven Pressfield) Goldberg, Evan: Love You Forever (Robert Munsch), Watchmen; V for Vendetta (Alan Moore), Preacher (Garth Ennis), The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy (Douglas Adams), The Little Prince (Antoine de Saint-Exupéry) Goodman, Marc: One Police Plaza (William Caunitz), The 4-Hour Workweek (Tim Ferriss), The Singularity Is Near (Ray Kurzweil), Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (Nick Bostrom) Hamilton, Laird: The Bible, Natural Born Heroes (Christopher McDougall), Lord of the Rings (J.R.R.

pages: 500 words: 145,005

Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics by Richard H. Thaler


3Com Palm IPO, Albert Einstein, Alvin Roth, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrei Shleifer, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Atul Gawande, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Black-Scholes formula, capital asset pricing model, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, clean water, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, constrained optimization, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Glaeser, endowment effect, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, George Akerlof, hindsight bias, Home mortgage interest deduction, impulse control, index fund, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, late fees, law of one price, libertarian paternalism, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, market clearing, Mason jar, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, money market fund, More Guns, Less Crime, mortgage debt, Myron Scholes, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, New Journalism, nudge unit, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, Ponzi scheme, presumed consent, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, Steve Jobs, technology bubble, The Chicago School, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, ultimatum game, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, zero-sum game

If no one in your organization knows how to go about running a proper experiment, hire a local behavioral scientist. They are cheaper than lawyers or consultants. Speak up. Many organizational errors could have been easily prevented if someone had been willing to tell the boss that something was going wrong. One vivid example of this comes from the high-stakes world of commercial aviation, as chronicled by Atul Gawande, a champion of reducing Human error, in his recent book The Checklist Manifesto. Over 500 people lost their lives in a 1977 runway crash because the second officer of a KLM flight was too timid to question the authority of the captain, his “boss.” After mishearing instructions about another plane still on the same runway, the captain continued to speed the plane forward for takeoff. The second officer tried to warn him but the captain dismissed his warning, and the second officer remained quiet from then on—until the two planes collided.

See also World Bank (2015). 353 repeatedly and rigorously tested: See Post et al. (2008) and van den Assem, van Dolder, and Thaler (2012) on game shows, Pope and Schweitzer (2011) on golf, Barberis and Thaler (2003) and Kliger, van den Assem, and Zwinkels (2014) for reviews of behavioral finance, and Camerer (2000) and DellaVigna (2009) for surveys of empirical applications of behavioral economics more generally. 353 intriguing finding by Roland Fryer: Fryer (2010). 354 The team of Fryer, John List, Steven Levitt, and Sally Sadoff: Fryer et al. (2013). 354 a recent randomized control trial: Kraft and Rogers (2014). 355 Field experiments are perhaps the most powerful tool we have: Gneezy and List (2013). 356 “If you don’t write it down, it doesn’t exist”: Ginzel (2014). 356 his recent book The Checklist Manifesto: Gawande (2010), pp. 176–77. 356 Into Thin Air: Krakauer (1997). 357 99% of the work is done by the choice architecture: Another example is Alexandre Mas who (sometimes collaborating with Alan Krueger) has shown that after labor disputes that go badly for workers, the quality of work declines. See Mas (2004) on the value of construction equipment after a dispute, Mas and Krueger (2004) on defects in tires after a strike, and Mas (2006) on police work after arbitration.

Working Paper 18237, National Bureau of Economic Research. Fudenberg, Drew, and David K. Levine. 2006. “A Dual-Self Model of Impulse Control.” American Economic Review 96, no. 5: 1449–76. Gabaix, Xavier, and David Laibson. 2006. “Shrouded Attributes, Consumer Myopia, and Information Suppression in Competitive Markets.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 2: 505–40. Gawande, Atul. 2010. The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right. New York: Metropolitan Books. Geanakoplos, John, David Pearce, and Ennio Stacchetti. 1989. “Psychological Games and Sequential Rationality.” Games and Economic Behavior 1, no. 1: 60–79. Ginzel, Linda E. 2015. “The Green Pen—Linda Ginzel: In the Classroom.” Chicago Booth Magazine, Winter. Glaeser, Edward L. 2013. “A Nation of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation and American History.”

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Wait: The Art and Science of Delay by Frank Partnoy


algorithmic trading, Atul Gawande, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, blood diamonds, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, computerized trading, corporate governance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Flash crash, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Akerlof, Google Earth, Hernando de Soto, High speed trading, impulse control, income inequality, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Long Term Capital Management, Menlo Park, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nick Leeson, paper trading, Paul Graham, payday loans, Ralph Nader, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, six sigma, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, statistical model, Steve Jobs, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, upwardly mobile, Walter Mischel

One of the biggest differences between financial and medical decisions is that doctors must swing at every pitch. Gurpreet Dhaliwal can’t turn away those patients he doesn’t quite understand. He can’t wait for the easiest possible diagnosis. He is obligated to try to help everyone. He might see nine cases that are like routine fastballs. But he also has to be ready to hit the one curve. In Atul Gawande’s provocative and insightful book The Checklist Manifesto, he shows how doctors can use checklists to save lives by reducing mistakes in medical decision-making, particularly during hospital surgery.12 He also advocates checklists for other nonmedical professionals, including airline pilots and financial professionals. Checklists serve as a reminder when our memory fails and as a guard against cognitive mistakes. They provide a framework to make sure we pay attention to each step of a task.

Warren Buffet, letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, March 1, 1991. 9. For the MBIA story, see Christine S. Richard, Confidence Game: How Hedge Fund Manager Bill Ackman Called Wall Street’s Bluff (Bloomberg Press, 2010). 10. Ibid., p. 46. 11. Jerome Kassirer, John Wong, and Richard Kopelman, Learning Clinical Reasoning, 2nd ed. (Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2010), p. xvii–xviii. 12. Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (Picador, 2009). 13. Ibid., p. 154. 14. The concept of a diagnostic time-out is raised in John W. Ely, Mark L. Graber, and Pat Croskerry, “Checklists to Reduce Diagnostic Errors,” Academic Medicine 86(3, 2011): 1–7, an excellent recent article exploring the use of checklists in diagnostic decision-making, particularly under uncertainty and time pressure. 15. Dhaliwal also sounds almost exactly like Michael Ashner, the successful chairman and CEO of Winthrop Realty Trust, who told me this about business decisions: “What you are relying on is your experience.

INDEX ABC News, Gibson and, 141 Accenture plc, 42, 43 Ackman, Bill, 177, 178, 179 Actions, x, 24, 105 Adams, Douglas, 103, 106, 243–244 Addictions, 158, 166 Adrenal cortex, 69 Adrenal medulla, 69 Adrenaline, 69, 105 Advertising, 50, 55 fast food, 59–60 subliminal, 51, 52, 59 Affection, brain and, 124 Ainslie, George, 157, 158, 166 Akerlof, George, 147–148, 152, 153, 154–155, 233 procrastination and, 151, 158, 170–171 short-term decisions and, 155 Alda, Alan, 107 Algorithms, 21, 31, 44, 45, 47 Ali, Muhammad: apology by, 144 Allen, David, 149 Allen, Woody: on comedy/time, 106–107 Allport, Gordon, 85–86 Ambady, Nalini: thin slicing and, 85, 86, 87, 91 Ambiguous qualities, picking up on, 90 American Economics Association, 152, 158 Amygdalae, 69 Analysis, 100, 200 intuition versus, 64 “Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything is … 42” (Adams), 243–244 Anti-procrastination industry, 149 Apologies, 145, 244 botched, 140–141, 142, 143, 144 delayed, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 143–144, 147 effective, 134–135, 136, 138–139 elements of, 143–144 emotional responses and, 136, 137–138 moment for, 133–135 parts of, 138–139 quick, 134, 135, 136, 138 snap, 134–135, 136 timing of, 133–134, 135, 137, 138 Apple, 43, 215, 218, 229 logo/subliminal flash of, 53 Art of War, The (Sun Tzu), 191 Athletes, superfast, 28, 31, 126, 183 Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, 15, 167 Attractiveness, 85, 90–91 intelligence and, 92–93 Autism, 10–11, 15 Automatic systems, 63, 78, 113 Baker, Howard, 133 Ball identification, 23, 25–27 Barkley, Alben, 133, 134 Barley, Stephen: study by, 203, 204 Basal ganglia, 69 Baseball batters, speed of, 29–30 Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 4 Behavior, 2, 136, 150, 155, 161–162, 171, 176 addictive, 158 advertising and, 50, 60 autistic-like, 10 black/white, 84 changing, 52 clock time and, 197 fast food and, 56 future-oriented, 123–124 impulsive, 13 infant, 4, 5 non-food-related, 54 nonverbal, 85 picking up, 128 problems/predictors of, 4 replicating, 31 risky, 241 self-destructive, 163 sequence of, 125 talking about, 7 thinking and, 122–123 time pressure and, 71–72 wages and, 53 Belichick, Bill, 79–80 Benefits, 207 costs versus, 240 Benki, Jose, 114 Bennigson, Courtney, 137 Benny, Jack, 107 Bernard, Claude, 3 Berners-Lee, Tim, 214 Bernoulli, Daniel, 153 Bernstein, Leonard, 168 Bias, 81, 94, 161, 165, 242 antiblack, 83 implicit, 83n, 99 models/complicated/controversial, 161 racial, 82, 83, 84, 99 snap, 100 unconscious, 83 Bilalíc, Merim, 218–219 Bin Laden, Osama, 187, 188, 190, 194 Biology, 96 decision-making and, 98 Bipolar illness, 167 Blink (Gladwell), 6, 86, 86n, 87, 88 Blitz chess, 72–73 Bloggers, reporters and, 193 Blood pressure, 11, 96 Borderline personality disorder (BPD), heart rate and, 11 Borge, Victor, 107 Boyd, John, 125, 199 decision-making process and, 127 OODA Loop and, 128, 135, 139 reactions and, 126 Bradman, Sir Donald, 25 Brady, Tom, 27 Bradycardia, 8 Brain, 1, 8 affection and, 124 anomalies, 167 changes/tracking, 15 full, 70 research, 15 responses by, 6, 21 stress and, 80 time and, 105 turbo-charged, 85 Breitbart, Andrew, 142 British Metropolitan Police Service, condemnation of, 84 Browning, Robert, 124 Buckley, Sir George William, 228 Buffett, Warren, 31, 179, 237 investment style of, 177–178 Bureaucracy, checklists and, 182 Burka, Jane, 149, 150, 151 Burnett, Carol: on comedy/time, 106 Bush, George W., 52, 94 Captain Corelli’s Mandolin, 117 Cardiovascular system, 9, 10 Carey, Ron, 131 Carmichael, Stokely, 84 Carney, Dana, 83, 94n, 95, 96, 97, 98, 100 study by, 84, 94, 99 Carson, Johnny, 113–114 CBS News, 188, 195 Central nervous system, 13 CEOs female, 91–92 incentives for, 208 pay for, 208 Checklist Manifesto, The (Gawande), 181–182 Checklists, 181–183 Checkmate five-move, 220, 220 (fig.), 221, 222 three-move, 219–220, 219 (fig.), 221, 222 Chess, 46, 219–220, 221, 222 Chesterfield, Earl of, 148 Child development, delay and, 15 Christie, Agatha, 149 Chronicle of Higher Education, 169 Cicero, 149 Clap game, 112, 113 Clark, Walker, 109–110, 112–113 clap game and, 112 communication and, 114 panic and, 110–111, 110n squirmish and, 113 on Stewart, 113–114 Clarke, Arthur C., 103 Climate change, 238–239 discount rates and, 239, 242 judgments about, 239–240 Clinton, Bill, 114, 131, 132, 135, 149, 235 apology by, 143–144 Clock time, 203, 207–208 event time and, 198–199, 200 hourly work and, 204 human behavior and, 197, 198 CNBC, 174 CNOOC, Unocal and, 192 Coca-Cola, 50, 51 Comedy, time and, 106 Communication, 38 silence and, 115 Computers, 31 programming/monitoring, 44 stock trading and, 35 Connors, Jimmy, 19, 20–21, 27 delay by, 24–25 service return of, 22–23 Conscious thought, 20, 64, 70, 100, 136 bypassing, 113 decision-making and, 87 Costs, 165 benefits versus, 240 Council of Economic Advisers, 94, 235 Covey, Stephen, 149 Cox, Archibald, 132 Craig, Larry: resignation of, 143 Cramer, Jim, 174–175, 178 Cranial nerve, 1 Cravings, stimuli for, 54 Credit cards, 156, 158, 163, 165 Crimes and Misdemeanors (Allen), 107 Criqui, Don, 66, 77–78 Critchfield, Jeff, 186–187 Cronkite, Walter, 188 Csonka, Larry, 65, 77, 78 Cuddy, Amy, 97 Curry, Tom, 78 Daily Show, The, 107 Dalio, Ray, 177 Damage, repairing, 138, 139 Damasio, Antonio, 68, 69 Darwin, Charles, 3, 124 Data, 38, 76, 88 Dating, 117–118, 120, 124, 125, 128, 244 OODA and, 127 De Benières, Louis, 124 Deadlines, working on, 193, 194 Decision-making, 20, 59, 69, 71, 106, 117, 121, 165, 186–187, 233, 238 aids, 70 bad, 104 biological reactions in, 79 complexities of, 245–246 conscious system and, 87 delay and, x, xii, 31, 76, 244–245, 246 discount rates and, 161 financial, 176 good, 244 happiness and, 123 human versus computer, 41 improving, 126, 180, 181 late-game, 67 medical, 180–181, 182, 186 military, 191 novices and, 76, 77 personal/professional, xii at preconscious speeds, 49 premortem and, 76 process of, 126, 127, 244 pros/cons of, 72 research on, x-xi, 28 self-control and, 13 short-term, 155, 243 slow, 61, 174 snap, 27, 100, 111, 124, 128, 183, 245 stimulus and, 70 studies on, 6, 78 thinking about, xi, 16–17 time and, x, xii, 58, 76, 122, 187 unconscious preferences and, 83 understanding, x, 16 value of human life and, 240–242 Delay, xii, 29, 38, 64, 107, 108, 115, 120, 138, 155–156, 159, 183 amount of, 141, 186 child development and, 15 cycle of, 145 discount rates and, 164 good/bad, 147, 156, 158 hardwired, 69 insight and, 195 irrational, 150 length of, 244 managing, xii, 17, 144, 168 masters of, 116, 173 minimizing, 39–40, 44 optimizing, 39, 44 reacting to, 145 role of, x, 48, 63, 184 skills/developing, 14 superfast, 16 thresholds, 114 time and, 121 understanding, 137 Deliberation, 20, 78, 111, 113, 115 Department of Transportation, value of human life and, 242 DeVoe, Sanford, 56, 57, 59, 205 fast food and, 55, 58, 206 incentives/time and, 53 McDonald’s stimuli and, 54 on time-saving devices, 58 Dhaliwal, Gurpreet, 180–181, 184–185, 186 Diagnostic Error in Medicine (DEM), 180 Diallo, Amadou, 86n Discount rates, 156, 157–158, 159–160, 162–163, 224, 237, 240 climate change and, 239, 242 decision making and, 161 high, 163, 164, 167 kinship and, 64 long-term, 161, 165 pigeons and, 161 probabilities and, 155 procrastination and, 153, 154, 158, 164 short-term, 161, 163, 165, 178 sustainability and, 238–239 Draper, Don, 51 Drucker, Peter, 149 Durden, Tyler, 49 E-Mini futures contracts, 41, 42, 43 Eagleman, David, 104, 105 Econometrica (Kahneman and Tversky), 157 Economic models, 157, 161 Economics, 150, 207, 209, 234 behavioral, x, xi, 148 psychology and, 176 Economy, time and, 200, 203 Edison, Thomas, 212, 214, 218, 226 Edwards, Herman, 78, 79 Edwards, John, 143 Edwards, Jonathan, 148 Efficiency, 198, 199, 200, 227, 228 Efficient market theory, 176 Einstellung effect, 218, 219, 221, 227 dangers of, 223–224 defending against, 222–223 Ekman, Paul: face and, 90 Elected-official-sexual-transgression-apology playbook, 142–143, 144 Ellington, Duke, 149 Emotional problems, 7, 10, 13, 15, 16, 104 Emotional reactions, 7, 69 apologies and, 136, 137–138 Emotions, 2, 5, 115 animal responses and, 16 money and, 206 Ensign, John, 143 Environmental Protection Agency, value of human life and, 242 Erythema multiforme, 186 Ethnicity, 184–185 European financial crisis (2012), 236 Evans, James: study by, 203, 204 Event time, 208 clock time and, 198–199, 200 Evert, Chris, 19, 20–21, 22 delay by, 24–25 visual reaction time of, 23 Explanation, 138, 139, 140, 141 Eye contact, 101 Eye movements, 222 Facebook, 119, 215 Faces attractive, 90–91, 92 glancing at, 93–94 Fama, Eugene, 176 Fast food, 53, 54 advertising for, 59–60 emotional/mental health and, 56 logos for, 55, 56, 57, 59, 61, 100, 205 stimuli for, 57, 58 studies on, 58–59, 206 subliminal messages for, 53–58 Fast Food Nation (Schlosser), 54 Fear, confronting, 9 Federal Communications Commission, 51–52 Federal Emergency Management Agency, 238 Feedback, 3, 5, 38, 185 FEMA, 238 Fencing, speed of, 27 Ferrari, Joseph, 150, 151 Fey, Tina, 140 F.I.A.S.C.O.

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The Glass Cage: Automation and Us by Nicholas Carr


Airbnb, Airbus A320, Andy Kessler, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, Bernard Ziegler, business process, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, computerized trading, David Brooks, deliberate practice, deskilling, digital map, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, High speed trading, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, natural language processing, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, place-making, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, software is eating the world, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, turn-by-turn navigation, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche

The key is to strike the right balance between grasping the specifics of the patient’s situation and inferring general patterns and probabilities derived from reading and experience. Checklists and other decision guides can serve as valuable aids in this process. They bring order to complicated and sometimes chaotic circumstances. But as the surgeon and New Yorker writer Atul Gawande explained in his book The Checklist Manifesto, the “virtues of regimentation” don’t negate the need for “courage, wits, and improvisation.” The best clinicians will always be distinguished by their “expert audacity.”24 By requiring a doctor to follow templates and prompts too slavishly, computer automation can skew the dynamics of doctor-patient relations. It can streamline patient visits and bring useful information to bear, but it can also, as Lown writes, “narrow the scope of inquiry prematurely” and even, by provoking an automation bias that gives precedence to the screen over the patient, lead to misdiagnoses.

Greenberg, “Too Many Alerts, Too Much Liability: Sorting through the Malpractice Implications of Drug-Drug Interaction Clinical Decision Support,” Saint Louis University Journal of Health Law and Policy 5 (2012): 257–295; and David W. Bates, “Clinical Decision Support and the Law: The Big Picture,” Saint Louis University Journal of Health Law and Policy 5 (2012): 319–324. 24.Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Henry Holt, 2010), 161–162. 25.Lown and Rodriguez, “Lost in Translation?” 26.Jerome Groopman, How Doctors Think (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2007), 34–35. 27.Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (New York: Modern Library, 2000), 840. 28.Ibid., 4. 29.Frederick Winslow Taylor, The Principles of Scientific Management (New York: Harper & Brothers, 1913), 11. 30.Ibid., 36. 31.Hannah Arendt, The Human Condition (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998), 147. 32.Harry Braverman, Labor and Monopoly Capital: The Degradation of Work in the Twentieth Century (New York: Monthly Review Press, 1998), 307. 33.For a succinct review of the Braverman debate, see Peter Meiksins, “Labor and Monopoly Capital for the 1990s: A Review and Critique of the Labor Process Debate,” Monthly Review, November 1994. 34.James R.

., 122 cancer, 70–71 capital investments, 18, 28, 30, 31 capitalism, 21–22, 24, 28, 31, 109, 116, 160 Carlsen, Magnus, 82 cars and driving, 3–18, 34, 46 accidents, 7, 70, 91, 153, 154–55, 207, 208 author’s experience with, 3–6, 13–14, 80, 81 automation bias and, 69–70 GPS in, 128, 130, 136–37 luxury, 8 manual vs. automatic transmission in, 3–6 paper maps and, 130 self-driving, 6–8, 10, 12, 13, 120, 153–56, 183–87, 193, 204, 207, 208 while sleepy, 71–72 Cartesian dualism, 148–49 Cartlidge, John, 77 cartoons, 19, 33 Caruthers, Felix P., 174 cascading failures, 155 Centers for Disease Control, 220 Cerner Corporation, 96 Chabris, Christopher, 201 Chapanis, Alphonse, 158 Checklist Manifesto, The (Gawande), 104 Cheng, Britte Haugan, 73 chess playing, 12, 121 China, 31, 167 Churchill, Winston, 139 CIA, 120 Cisco, 195 City University London, 70 Clark, Andy, 149–51 Clarke, Arthur C., 197–98 cloud computing, 195, 202, 209 cognition, cognitive skills, 11–12, 56–58, 71–74, 81, 120, 121, 148–51, 165 of doctors, 105 embodied, 149–51, 213 cognitive map, 129–30, 135 cognitive psychologists, 72–76, 81, 129–30 Colgan Air, 45 communication, 36, 163, 198 doctor-patient, 103–6 Communist Manifesto (Marx and Engels), 225 computer-aided design (CAD), 138–42, 144, 145, 167, 219, 229–30 computer games, 75, 177–80, 219 computer programmers, 161, 162, 168 computers, 1, 2, 17, 33, 37, 38, 40, 159 architecture and design and, 138–47 automation and, 36, 43, 50–58, 62, 66–67, 69, 90, 91, 202–3 aviation and, 43, 46, 50–52, 54, 55, 57, 62, 153, 168, 170, 172–73 avocations and, 12 benefits of transferring work to, 17–18 boundary between humans and, 10–12 brain compared with, 119, 151 capabilities of, 8–9 in cars, 7, 8–9 costs of transferring work to, 18, 28, 30, 66–67 dependency on, 12–13 effects on workload of, 90, 91 ergonomics and, 164–68 expectation of aid of, 193–95 health care and, 93–106 human compared with, 153 as media devices, 219 memory experiment and, 79 mental processes and, 74 monitoring of, 17 oracle machine, 119–20 satellite-linked, 125–37 speed of, 118–22, 139, 156, 164, 173, 219 vocations and, 12 wearable, 12, 201 white-collar, 93–106 computer scientists, 156 computer simulation models, 93, 97 concentration, 200 Concours de la Sécurité en Aéroplane, 46 consciousness, 83, 119n, 121, 148–49, 150, 187 Continental Connection, 43–45, 54, 154 corporate auditors, 115 Cowen, Tyler, 31 craft workers, 23, 106, 109 Crawford, Kate, 122–23 Crawford, Matthew, 147–48 creativity, 10, 12, 14, 143, 144, 167, 206, 229 Cross, Nigel, 143–44 Csikszentmihalyi, Mihalyi, 14–16, 18, 85, 228–29 Cukier, Kenneth, 122 culture, 124, 131, 196, 198, 217, 220, 226 Curtiss C-2 biplane, 46–47 cutting grass, 215–16 Cybernetics, or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine (Wiener), 38–39 cyborgs, 2 dancing mice, 87–92 Dancing Mouse, The (Yerkes), 85–86 DARPA (Department of Defense laboratory), 165 Dassault, 140 data, 113, 114, 117, 119–22, 136, 167, 248n data fundamentalism, 122–23 data processing, 17, 195 decision aids, automated, 113–15, 166 drawbacks to, 77 decision making, 160, 166, 168 decision trees, 113–14 declarative knowledge, 9, 10–11, 83 Deep Blue, 12 degeneration effect, 65–85 automation complacency and bias and, 67–72 Whitehead’s views and, 65–67 dementia, 135–37 dependency, 130, 133, 136, 146, 203, 225 depression, 220 Descartes, René, 148, 216 design, designers, 137–47 computer-aided (CAD), 138–42, 144, 145, 167, 219, 229–30 human- vs. technology-centered automation and, 158–62, 164–65, 167–70, 172 parametric, 140–41 system, 155–57 video games as model for, 178–82 Designerly Ways of Knowing (Cross), 143–44 desire, 15, 17, 20, 83, 161, 206–7, 210 to understand the world, 123–24 deskilling, 55, 100, 106–12, 115 Dewey, John, 148, 149, 220 diabetes, 245n–46n diagnostic testing, 70–71, 99, 102 DiFazio, William, 27–28 Digital Apollo (Mindell), 60, 61 disease, 70–71, 113, 135–37, 245n–46n dislocation, 133 Do, Ellen Yi-Luen, 167 Doctor Algorithm, 154, 155 doctors, 12, 32, 70, 93–106, 114–15, 120, 123, 147, 155, 166, 173, 219 evidence-based medicine (EBM) and, 114, 123 patient’s relationship with, 103–6 primary-care, 100–104, 154 document discovery, 116 Dodson, John Dillingham, 88–89 Dorsey, Jack, 203 Dorsey, Julie, 167–68 Dostrovsky, Jonathan, 133 dot-com bubble, 117, 194, 195 drawing and sketching, 142–47 Dreyfus, Hubert, 82 driving, see cars and driving drone strikes, 188 drugs, prescription, 220–21 Drum, Kevin, 225 Dyer-Witheford, Nick, 24 Dyson, Freeman, 175 Dyson, George, 20, 113 Eagle, Alan, 176 Ebbatson, Matthew, 55–56, 58 ebook, 29 economic growth, 22, 27, 30 economic stability, 20 Economist, 225 economists, 9, 18, 22, 29, 30, 32–33, 109 economy, economics, 20, 25–33, 117 e-discovery, 116 education, 113, 120, 153 efficiency, 8, 17, 26, 58, 61, 114, 132, 139, 159, 173, 174, 176, 219 EMR and, 101, 102 factories and, 106–8 electric grid, 195–96 electronic medical records (EMR), 93–106, 114, 123, 245n–46n embodied cognition, 149–51, 213 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 16, 232 End of Work, The (Rifkin), 28 engagement, 14, 165 Engels, Friedrich, 225 Engineering a Safer World (Leveson), 155–56 engineers, 34, 36–37, 46, 49, 50, 54, 59, 69, 119, 120, 139, 157–60, 162, 164, 168, 174, 175, 194, 196 Enlightenment, 159–60 entorhinal cortex, 134, 135 equilibrium, of aircraft, 61–62 ergonomics (human-factors engineering), 54, 158–60, 164–68 Ericsson, K.

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To Sell Is Human: The Surprising Truth About Moving Others by Daniel H. Pink

always be closing, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, complexity theory, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, disintermediation, future of work, George Akerlof, information asymmetry, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, out of africa, Richard Thaler, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Steve Jobs, The Market for Lemons, Upton Sinclair, Wall-E, zero-sum game

See also “Patient Photos Spur Radiologist Empathy and Eye for Detail,” RSNA Press Release, December 2, 2008; Dina Kraft, “Radiologist Adds a Human Touch: Photos,” New York Times, April 7, 2009. 7. Turner and Hadas-Halpern, “The Effects of Including a Patient’s Photograph.” 8. “Patient Photos Spur Radiologist Empathy and Eye for Detail,” ScienceDaily, December 14, 2008, available at 9. See Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Picador, 2011). 10. See, for instance, “Disconnection from Patients and Care Providers: A Latent Error in Pathology and Laboratory Medicine: An Interview with Stephen Raab, MD,” Clinical Laboratory News 35, no. 4 (April 2009). 11. Sally Herships, “The Power of a Simple ‘Thank You,’” Marketplace Radio, December 22, 2010. 12. R. Douglas Scott II, The Direct Medical Costs of Healthcare-Associated Infections in U.S.

., “Estimating Health Care–Associated Infections and Deaths in U.S. Hospitals, 2002,” Public Health Reports 122, no. 2 (March–April 2007): 160–66. 13. Adam M. Grant and David A. Hofmann, “It’s Not All About Me: Motivating Hand Hygiene Among Health Care Professionals by Focusing on Patients,” Psychological Science 22, no. 12 (December 2011): 1494–99. 14. Ibid., 497. 15. Atul Gawande, “The Checklist,” New Yorker, December 10, 2007; Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Done Right (New York: Picador, 2011). 16. Grant and Hofmann, “It’s Not All About Me,” 498. 17. See, for instance, Dan Ariely, Anat Bracha, and Stephan Meier, “Doing Good or Doing Well? Image Motivation and Monetary Incentives in Behaving Prosocially,” American Economic Review 99, no. 1 (March 2009): 544–55; Stephan Meier, The Economics of Non-Selfish Behaviour: Decisions to Contribute Money to Public Goods (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2006); Stephan Meier, “A Survey of Economic Theories and Field Evidence on Pro-Social Behavior,” in Bruno S.

pages: 288 words: 66,996

Travel While You Work: The Ultimate Guide to Running a Business From Anywhere by Mish Slade


Airbnb, Atul Gawande, business process, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, Firefox, Google Chrome, Google Hangouts, Inbox Zero, job automation, Lyft, remote working, side project, Skype, speech recognition, turn-by-turn navigation

Resources to help with your routine Here's a selection of books, websites and tools that might inspire you to develop your own routine and good working habits: The Tiny Habits Method (website and free course): Coach Me (app that helps you reach your goals): Mini Habits: Smaller Habits, Bigger Results (book by Stephen Guise): The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (book by Atul Gawande): There are some fantastic answers on Quora to the question "What are the best daily routines of highly productive people?": The Quora answers to the question "What are the best ways for non 9-5 types to build structure and social interaction into their daily routines?" are also pretty good: Stay focused and filter out distractions Everyone has different kinds of distractions, and different ways of dealing with them.

Calculate your cost of living The Birdy: Numbeo's cost-of-living tool: Trail Wallet: Taxes Greenback Expat Tax Services: Small Business Bodyguard: Flag Theory: Foreign Earned Income Exclusion (US residents only): CHAPER 3: GUARD YOUR DATA Protect Your Tech (book): HTTP Everywhere: Torguard VPN: LastPass (password management): CHAPTER 4: BE A PRODUCTIVITY POWERHOUSE Have a routine The Tiny Habits Method (website and free course): Coach Me (app that helps you reach your goals): Mini Habits: Smaller Habits, Bigger Results (book by Stephen Guise): The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (book by Atul Gawande): Quora Q&A – "What are the best daily routines of highly productive people?": Quora Q&A – "What are the best ways for non 9-5 types to build structure and social interaction into their daily routines?": Stay focused and filter out distractions Unroll Me (unsubscribe from emails): Gmail "plus sign" trick: Trello: Pomodoro Technique: Pomodoto (Pomodoro timer): You Can Book Me (appointment-booking software): iDoneThis (track what you've achieved): AskMeEvery (track what you've achieved): Kransen headphones: ShareDesk (coworking spaces): Coffitivity (concentration app): Focus@Will (concentration app): Optimise your workspace Roost laptop stand: Portable keyboards: Mini-mouse: ZestDesk (standing desk): StandStand (standing desk): Kinivo ZX100 laptop speakers: Deal with wifi issues Wifi speed test: Huawei E5330 mobile hotspot: Didlogic (cheap international calls without internet): Skype To Go: Google Docs Offline: CHAPTER 5: FREELANCE FROM ANYWHERE Emailing Boomerang (to delay when an email gets sent): Scheduling World Time Buddy: Doodle: Mixmax: You Can Book Me: Phone/video calls Buy a Skype Number: Zoom (alternative to Skype): GoToMeeting (alternative to Skype): Join Me (alternative to Skype): Didlogic (cheap international calls without internet): Skype To Go: Screen sharing Screenleap: Document signing HelloSign: EchoSign: Getting paid PayPal: Stripe: Freshbooks (for information about PayPal Business Payments): Harvest (for information about PayPal Business Payments): TransferWise (cross-currency payments): CHAPTER 6: HIRE LIKE A CHAMP Hire remote contractors Upwork (formerly Elance/oDesk): Guru: Freelancer: Gigster: 99 Designs: Crowdspring: Fancy Hands: Information about "milestones": Screencast-o-matic (record screencasts): Hire permanent employees Working Mums (UK): Hire My Mom (US): Remotive: Remote OK: We Work Remotely: Authentic Jobs: Upwork: Information about KPIs: Topgrading (hiring tips and resources): Buffer's 45-day contract period: CHAPTER 7: RUN THE BEST BIZ Team chat software Slack: HipChat: Structured meetings and ad-hoc calls Mastering The Rockefeller Habits (book): World Time Buddy: Google Calendar: Zoom (alternative to Skype): (alternative to Skype): Screen sharing Screenleap: Giving tutorials and training Screencast-o-matic: ScreenFlow (Mac): Camtasia (Windows): Procedures Google Drive: Process Street: Project management Trello: Basecamp: Asana: Teamwork: Wikipedia's "Comparison of project management software" page: Cloud storage Dropbox: OneDrive: Google Drive: Information on Google Drive "offline mode": Box: Amazon Cloud Drive: Other useful tools and resources LastPass (password management): HelloSign (document signing): EchoSign (document signing): Sqwiggle (video team chat): Zapier (task automation): IFTTT (task automation): Also by the author… Protect Your Tech: Your geek-free guide to a secure and private digital life If your password for every website is "monkey" or "iloveyou"… you need to read this book.

pages: 464 words: 117,495

The New Trading for a Living: Psychology, Discipline, Trading Tools and Systems, Risk Control, Trade Management by Alexander Elder


additive manufacturing, Atul Gawande, backtesting, Benoit Mandelbrot, buy low sell high, Checklist Manifesto, computerized trading, deliberate practice, diversification, Elliott wave, endowment effect, loss aversion, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, offshore financial centre, paper trading, Ponzi scheme, price stability, psychological pricing, quantitative easing, random walk, risk tolerance, short selling, South Sea Bubble, systematic trading, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, transfer pricing, traveling salesman, tulip mania, zero-sum game

Whatever approach you take, the key advantage of any system is that you design it when the markets are closed and you feel calm. A system becomes your anchor of rational behavior amidst the turbulence of the market. It goes without saying that a proper system is written down. This needs to be done because it's easy to forget some essential steps when stressed by live markets. Dr. Atul Gawande in his remarkable book The Checklist Manifesto makes a convincing case for using checklists to raise performance levels in a large variety of demanding endeavors, from surgery and construction to trading. A mechanical trader develops a set of rules, back-tests them on historical data, and then puts his system on autopilot. Going forward, his software starts flashing orders for entries, target, and stops, and a mechanical trader is supposed to place them exactly as shown.

Friedman, Milton, Essays in Positive Economics (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1953). Frost, A. J., and R. R. Prechter, Jr., Elliott Wave Principle (Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library, 1978). Gajowiy, Nils, Personal communication, 2012. Gallacher, William, Winner Takes All—A Privateer's Guide to Commodity Trading (Toronto: Midway Publications, 1983). Gann, W. D., How to Make Profits in Commodities (Chicago: W. D. Gann Holdings, 1951). Gawande, Atul, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 2011) Gleick, James, Chaos: Making a New Science (New York: Viking/Penguin, 1987). Goepfert, Jason, Granville, Joseph, New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1976). Greenson, Ralph R., “On Gambling” (1947), in Explorations in Psychoanalysis (New York: International Universities Press, 1978).

See also Japanese candlesticks Cash trades, futures compared to Catastrophic stops Ceilings, for commodities CFDs (contracts for difference) CFTC, see Commodity Futures Trading Commission Channels in A-trades Average True Range combining divergences and constructing in day-trading defined and moving averages in setting profit targets symmetrical Channel trading systems constructing channels and mass psychology standard deviation (Bollinger bands) symmetrical trading rules Chaos theory Chart analysis bar charts chaos theory detecting bias in diagonals in Efficient Market theory history of charting and insider trading Japanese candlesticks kangaroo tails “nature's law” Random Walk subjectiveness in support and resistance causes of strength of trading rules and true and false breakouts trends and trading ranges and conflicting timeframes of markets deciding to trade or wait hard right edge identifying and mass psychology as window into mass psychology Charting Commodity Market Price Behavior (L. Dee Belveal) Chart patterns: defined at right edge of charts RSI trendlines subjective interpretation of swings of mass psychology shown in Checklists Checklist Manifesto, The (Atul Gawande) Childhood, mental baggage from Churchill, Winston Classical chart analysis, see Chart analysis “Climax bottoms” Climax indicator Closing prices: Advance/Decline line on candlestick charts of daily and weekly bars of daily charts as most important consensus of value relationship of opening prices and for settlement of trading accounts Cohen, Abraham W.

pages: 654 words: 191,864

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman


Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, Bayesian statistics, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, cognitive bias, complexity theory, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, demand response, endowment effect, experimental economics, experimental subject, Exxon Valdez, feminist movement, framing effect, hindsight bias, index card, information asymmetry, job satisfaction, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, libertarian paternalism, loss aversion, medical residency, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, nudge unit, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, pre–internet, price anchoring, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, The Chicago School, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, transaction costs, union organizing, Walter Mischel, Yom Kippur War

A baby with a score of 4 or below was probably bluish, flaccid, passive, with a slow or weak pulse—in need of immediate intervention. Applying Apgar’s score, the staff in delivery rooms finally had consistent standards for determining which babies were in trouble, and the formula is credited for an important contribution to reducing infant mortality. The Apgar test is still used every day in every delivery room. Atul Gawande’s recent A Checklist Manifesto provides many other examples of the virtues of checklists and simple rules. The Hostility to Algorithms From the very outset, clinical psychologists responded to Meehl’s ideas with hostility and disbelief. Clearly, they were in the grip of an illusion of skill in terms of their ability to make long-term predictions. On reflection, it is easy to see how the illusion came about and easy to sympathize with the clinicians’ rejection of Meehl’s research.

Dawes, “The Superiority of Simple Alternatives to Regression for Social Science Predictions,” Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 29 (2004): 317–31. Dr. Apgar: Virginia Apgar, “A Proposal for a New Method of Evaluation of the Newborn Infant,” Current Researches in Anesthesia and Analgesia 32 (1953): 260–67. Mieczyslaw Finster and Margaret Wood, “The Apgar Score Has Survived the Test of Time,” Anesthesiology 102 (2005): 855–57. virtues of checklists: Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2009). organic fruit: Paul Rozin, “The Meaning of ‘Natural’: Process More Important than Content,” Psychological Science 16 (2005): 652–58. 2 {ce moderated by an arbiter: Mellers, Hertwig, and Kahneman, “Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects?” articulated this position: Klein, Sources of Power. kouros: The Getty Museum in Los Angeles brings in the world’s leading experts on Greek sculpture to view a kouros—a marble statue of a striding boy—that it is about to buy.

Irrational is a strong word: The view of the mind that Dan Ariely has presented in Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (New York: Harper, 2008) is not much different from mine, but we differ in our use of the term. accept future addiction: Gary S. Becker and Kevin M. Murphy, “A Theory of Rational Addiction,” Journal of Political Economics 96 (1988): 675–700. Nudge: Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008). can institute and enforce: Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Holt, 2009). Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Oliver Sibony, “The Big Idea: Before You Make That Big Decision…” Harvard Business Review 89 (2011): 50–60. distinctive vocabulary: Chip Heath, Richard P. Larrick, and Joshua Klayman, “Cognitive Repairs: How Organizational Practices Can Compensate for Individual Shortcomings,” Research in Organizational Behavior 20 (1998): 1–37.

pages: 270 words: 85,450

Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End by Atul Gawande


Atul Gawande, Checklist Manifesto, clean water, delayed gratification, Skype, stem cell

But her devotion to the book remained unwavering, and she went through every draft with me meticulously, working paragraph by paragraph to make sure I’d got every part as true and right as I could. Sara’s dedication is the reason this book says what I wanted it to say. And that is why it is dedicated to her. Also by Atul Gawande Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science Better: A Surgeon’s Notes on Performance The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right About the Author ATUL GAWANDE is the author of three bestselling books: Complications, a finalist for the National Book Award; Better, selected by as one of the ten best books of 2007; and The Checklist Manifesto. He is also a surgeon at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, a staff writer for The New Yorker, and a professor at Harvard Medical School and the Harvard School of Public Health. He has won the Lewis Thomas Prize for Writing about Science, a MacArthur Fellowship, and two National Magazine Awards.

pages: 394 words: 85,252

The New Sell and Sell Short: How to Take Profits, Cut Losses, and Benefit From Price Declines by Alexander Elder


Atul Gawande, backtesting, buy low sell high, Checklist Manifesto, double helix, impulse control, paper trading, short selling, systematic trading, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith

They are given manuals that show how to troubleshoot any problem on the plane. If a pilot thinks he smells smoke in the cockpit, he does not just wrinkle his nose and say “Geez, smoke. I wonder what I should do....” Instead of scratching and thinking, he opens his manual to the Smoke page and, with his co-pilot, goes through clearly defined “if-then” questions and answers, which lead to specific actions. An excellent recent book on developing a checklist is The Checklist Manifesto by Dr. Atul Gawande. Still, even a printed decision-making tree, approved by the best airline, can never be complete. In his fascinating book The Black Box, Malcolm MacPherson serves up dozens of transcripts from the black boxes of crashed airliners. A trader can learn a great deal from watching how some pilots fall apart under pressure while others rise up to the challenge. My favorite chapter is the recording of the black box of a plane whose tail engine had exploded, cutting all hydraulic lines.

Entries & Exits: Visits to 16 Trading Rooms. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2006. Elder, Alexander. Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, 1993. Faith, Curtis. The Way of the Turtle. New York, NY: McGraw Hill, 2007. Friedentag, Harvey Conrad. Options—Investing Without Fear. Chicago, IL: International Publishing Corporation, 1995. Gawande, Atul, The Checklist Manifesto. Metropolitan Books, 2009. Grove, Nicholas. Personal communication, 2004. Hieronymus, Thomas A. Economics of Futures Trading. New York, NY: Commodity Research Bureau, Inc., 1971. Kreiz, Shai. Personal communication, 2007. Lewis, Michael. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine. New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company, 2010. Lovvorn, Kerry. Personal communication, 2007. MacPherson, Malcolm.

pages: 483 words: 141,836

Red-Blooded Risk: The Secret History of Wall Street by Aaron Brown, Eric Kim


activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, Asian financial crisis, Atul Gawande, backtesting, Basel III, Bayesian statistics, beat the dealer, Benoit Mandelbrot, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, capital asset pricing model, central bank independence, Checklist Manifesto, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, disintermediation, distributed generation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Thorp, Emanuel Derman, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental subject, financial innovation, illegal immigration, implied volatility, index fund, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, margin call, market clearing, market fundamentalism, market microstructure, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, natural language processing, open economy, Pierre-Simon Laplace, pre–internet, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, special drawing rights, statistical arbitrage, stochastic volatility, The Myth of the Rational Market, Thomas Bayes, too big to fail, transaction costs, value at risk, yield curve

The same ideas are treated in more optimistic ways by authors who emphasize the positive roles of uncertainty and failure. Good examples are To Engineer Is Human: The Role of Failure in Successful Design by Henry Petroski, Inviting Disaster: Lessons from the Edge of Technology by James R. Chiles, Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies by Charles Perrow, The Limits of Safety by Scott Douglas Sagan, The Upside of Turbulence: Seizing Opportunity in an Uncertain World by Donald N. Sull, and The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right by Atul Gawande. I have four recommendations if your interest is game theory. All are technical but readable. I went to Harvard with Drew Fudenberg, who wrote (with David Levine) A Long-Run Collaboration on Games with Long-Run Patient Players. A few years later, Colin Camerer was in the University of Chicago PhD program with me. He wrote Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic Interaction.

See also Probability betting/probability and foundation of frequentism and in history/law “prior beliefs” and risk defining capital technology startups and Beat the Dealer (Thorp) Beat the Market (Thorp and Kassouf) Behavioral Game Theory (Camerer) Bennet, Rick Bernoulli, Jakob Berns, Gregory Bernstein, Peter Betting: Kelly bets probability and public sports Beyond Counting (Grosjean) Beyond Individual Choice (Bacharach) Big Short, The (Lewis) Black, Alethea Black, Fischer Black-Scholes-Merton model Black Swan, The (Taleb) Black Wednesday Bloom, Murray Teigh Bogle, John Bond ratings Bookstaber, Richard Born Losers (Sandage) Bounds of Reason, The (Gintis) Brenner, Reuven and Gabrielle Bringing Down the House (Mezrich) British Treasury Broke, (Adams) Bronze Age Bronze Age Economics (Earle) Bubble investors Bulls, Bears, and Brains (Leitzes) Burton, Robert Alan Business Cycles and Equilibrium (Black) Busting Vegas (Mezrich) Calvet, Laurent E. Camerer, Colin Capital: allocation at-risk formation requirement Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) Capital Ideas (Bernstein) Capital Offense (Hirsh) Carnap, Rudolph Cash, Lehman Brothers and Cash Nexus (Ferguson) Chance, Luck, and Statistics (Levinson) Chances Are (Kaplan) Change of numeraire Checklist Manifesto, The (Gawande) Chernow, Ron Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) Chief risk officer (CRO) Chiles, James Cincinnati Kid, The ( Jessup) Citibank Clearinghouses CMOs. See Collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) Cohen, Muhammad Cohen, William Coherent Stress Testing (Rebonato) Collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) Commodity futures Company of Strangers, The (Seabright) Complete TurtleTrader, The (Covel) Connor, Gregory Conquering Risk (Feustel) Controllers/comptrollers Covel, Michael Cowboys Full (McManus) Cox, Richard Cramer, Jim Credit derivatives Credit stress test CRO.

pages: 294 words: 82,438

Simple Rules: How to Thrive in a Complex World by Donald Sull, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt


Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, asset allocation, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, Basel III, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, Checklist Manifesto, complexity theory, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, drone strike,, European colonialism, Exxon Valdez, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, haute cuisine, invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, late fees, Lean Startup, Louis Pasteur, Lyft, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Nate Silver, Network effects, obamacare, Paul Graham, performance metric, price anchoring, RAND corporation, risk/return, Saturday Night Live, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Startup school, statistical model, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, transportation-network company, two-sided market, Wall-E, web application, Y Combinator, Zipcar

. [>] Even sympathetic commentators: O’Malley, The First Jesuits, 81, 85. [>] A decade after the order’s: Ibid., 82. [>] Both flexibility and consistency: Jason P. Davis, Kathleen M. Eisenhardt, and Christopher B. Bingham, “Optimal Structure, Market Dynamism, and the Strategy of Simple Rules,” Administrative Science Quarterly 54, no. 3 (2009): 413–52. [>] Although these errors: Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Metropolitan, 2009). [>] The chain’s selling point: McDonald’s has ranked last for seventeen of the last eighteen years in the American Customer Satisfaction Index. American Customer Satisfaction Index, “Benchmarks by Industry: Limited-Service Restaurants,”

pages: 269 words: 74,955

The Crash Detectives by Christine Negroni

Air France Flight 447, Airbus A320, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, computer age, crew resource management, crowdsourcing, low cost carrier, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, South China Sea, Tenerife airport disaster, Thomas Bayes, US Airways Flight 1549

Fundamentals of Aerospace Medicine, 4th edition. Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2008. de Crespigny, R. QF32. Sydney: Pan Macmillian Australia, 2012. deHaven-Smith , L. Conspiracy Theory in America. Austin: University of Texas Press, 2014. Filotas, L. Improbable Cause: Deceit and Dissent in the Investigation of America’s Worst Military Air Disaster. BookSurge, 2007. Gawande, A. The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right. New York: Metropolitian Books, 2009. Gero, D. Aviation Disasters: The World’s Major Civil Airliner Crashes Since 1950, 4th ed. Stroud, England: Patrick Stephens, 2006. Gonzales, L. Flight 232: A Story of Disaster and Survival. New York: W. W. Norton, 2014. Griffioen, H. Air Crash Investigators: The Crash of Helios Airways Flight 522. , 2009. Haine, E.

pages: 455 words: 116,578

The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business by Charles Duhigg


Atul Gawande, Checklist Manifesto, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, delayed gratification, desegregation, game design, haute couture, impulse control, index card, meta analysis, meta-analysis, patient HM, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, rolodex, Rosa Parks, Silicon Valley, telemarketer, Tenerife airport disaster, Toyota Production System, transaction costs, Walter Mischel

., “The Egocentric Surgeon or the Roots of Wrong Side Surgery,” Quality and Safety in Health Care 17 (2008): 396–400; Mary R. Kwaan et al., “Incidence, Patterns, and Prevention of Wrong-Site Surgery,” Archives of Surgery 141, no. 4 (April 2006): 353–57. 6.39 Other hospitals have made similar For a discussion on this topic, see McCarthy and Blumenthal, “Stories from the Sharp End”; Atul Gawande, Better: A Surgeon’s Notes on Performance (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2008); Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2009). 6.40 In the wake of that tragedy NASA, “Report to the President: Actions to Implement the Recommendations of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident,” July 14, 1986; Matthew W. Seeger, “The Challenger Tragedy and Search for Legitimacy,” Communication Studies 37, no. 3 (1986): 147–57; John Noble Wilford, “New NASA System Aims to Encourage Blowing the Whistle,” The New York Times, June 5, 1987; Joseph Lorenzo Hall, “Columbia and Challenger: Organizational Failure at NASA,” Space Policy 19, no. 4 (November 2003), 239–47; Barbara Romzek and Melvin Dubnick, “Accountability in the Public Sector: Lessons from the Challenger Tragedy,” Public Administration Review 47, no. 3 (May–June 1987): 227–38. 6.41 Then, a runway error Karl E.

pages: 410 words: 114,005

Black Box Thinking: Why Most People Never Learn From Their Mistakes--But Some Do by Matthew Syed


Airbus A320, Alfred Russel Wallace, Arthur Eddington, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, British Empire, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, crew resource management, deliberate practice, double helix, epigenetics, fear of failure, fundamental attribution error, Henri Poincaré, hindsight bias, Isaac Newton, iterative process, James Dyson, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Joseph Schumpeter, Lean Startup, mandatory minimum, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum viable product, publication bias, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, Silicon Valley, six sigma, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, Toyota Production System, US Airways Flight 1549, Wall-E, Yom Kippur War

The Kirkup Report: 26. Select Committee Report: 27. 28. Michael Gillam et al., “The Health Care Singularity and the Age of Semantic Medicine” in The Fourth Paradigm: Data-Intensive Scientific Discovery (Microsoft, 2009). 29. Atul Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (London: Profile, 2010). 30. Atul Gawande, Complications. 31. 32. Atul Gawande, Complications. 33. 34. James Reason, A Life in Error: From Little Slips to Big Disasters (Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2013). 35.

pages: 624 words: 127,987

The Personal MBA: A World-Class Business Education in a Single Volume by Josh Kaufman


Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, business process, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Heinemeier Hansson, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Dean Kamen, delayed gratification, discounted cash flows, Donald Knuth, double entry bookkeeping, Douglas Hofstadter,, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Santayana, Gödel, Escher, Bach, high net worth, hindsight bias, index card, inventory management, iterative process, job satisfaction, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Kevin Kelly, Lao Tzu, loose coupling, loss aversion, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, Network effects, Parkinson's law, Paul Buchheit, Paul Graham, place-making, premature optimization, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rent control, side project, statistical model, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, subscription business, telemarketer, the scientific method, time value of money, Toyota Production System, tulip mania, Upton Sinclair, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, Y Combinator, Yogi Berra

Even pilots with decades of flying experience always use Checklists to make sure everything is done right and in the proper sequence. As a result, plane crashes are extremely rare—statistically, it’s safer to fly commercially than to drive. Even simple processes can benefit from Systemization and the use of Checklists. In 2001, a study on the effects of Checklisting was conducted by Dr. Peter Pronovost, which was described in detail in Atul Gawande’s The Checklist Manifesto and in an article Gawande published in the New Yorker. 2 The study was conducted in a hospital in Detroit that had the highest rate of ten-day IV line infections (a costly and life-threatening condition) in the country. Pronovost’s objective was to determine whether or not using Checklists would reduce the rate of infections. Here’s the entirety of the intervention: whenever a doctor inserted an IV line, they were instructed to use the following Checklist.

pages: 719 words: 181,090

Site Reliability Engineering by Betsy Beyer, Chris Jones, Jennifer Petoff, Niall Richard Murphy

Air France Flight 447, anti-pattern, barriers to entry, business intelligence, business process, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, combinatorial explosion, continuous integration, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, database schema, defense in depth, DevOps,, fault tolerance, Flash crash, George Santayana, Google Chrome, Google Earth, job automation, job satisfaction, linear programming, load shedding, loose coupling, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum viable product, MVC pattern, performance metric, platform as a service, revision control, risk tolerance, side project, six sigma, the scientific method, Toyota Production System, trickle-down economics, web application, zero day

Brewer, “Harvest, Yield, and Scalable Tolerant Systems”, in Proceedings of the 7th Workshop on Hot Topics in Operating Systems, Rio Rico, Arizona, March 1999. [Fow08] M. Fowler, “GUI Architectures”, blog post, 2006. [Gal78] J. Gall, SYSTEMANTICS: How Systems Really Work and How They Fail, 1st ed., Pocket, 1977. [Gal03] J. Gall, The Systems Bible: The Beginner’s Guide to Systems Large and Small, 3rd ed., General Systemantics Press/Liberty, 2003. [Gaw09] A. Gawande, The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right: Henry Holt and Company, 2009. [Ghe03] S. Ghemawat, H. Gobioff, and S-T. Leung, “The Google File System”, in 19th ACM Symposium on Operating Systems Principles, October 2003. [Gil02] S. Gilbert and N. Lynch, “Brewer’s Conjecture and the Feasibility of Consistent, Available, Partition-Tolerant Web Services”, in ACM SIGACT News, vol. 33, no. 2, 2002. [Gla02] R.