flex fuel

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pages: 415 words: 103,231

Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence by Robert Bryce

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Berlin Wall, Colonization of Mars, decarbonisation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, financial independence, flex fuel, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Markoff, Just-in-time delivery, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price stability, Project for a New American Century, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, Whole Earth Catalog, X Prize, Yom Kippur War

“We exchange our food for their fuel and both parties benefit,” says Tad Patzek, the University of California-Berkeley engineering professor who is among the world’s best-known ethanol critics. But if the U.S. continues trying to turn its food into fuel, he warns, “we will bankrupt ourselves with regard to water.” FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES AND THE E85 SCAM The great comic actress Lily Tomlin once said that “no matter how cynical I get, I can’t keep up.” After watching George W. Bush’s March 2007 appearance at the White House with the top executives from America’s biggest automakers, it’s easy to identify with Tomlin’s comment. During the meeting, the automakers were given an opportunity to display their latest vehicles on the White House driveway. The cars were all flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) that were capable of burning E85. The me- The Impossibility of Independence 193 dia event was held to demonstrate the automakers’ and the Bush administration’s commitment to reducing oil consumption.

Mencken once remarked that there is always a “well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.”23 That quote comes to mind when one considers the claims put forward by Zubrin, Luft, and their ilk who claim that the best way to cut American oil imports, and thereby impoverish the petrostates (and in theory, reduce terrorism), is to require automakers to manufacture “flex-fuel” cars. Their rationale is simple: Using more ethanol from corn or other biomass, as well as methanol from coal or other sources, will create competition in the motor fuel market and thereby depose oil from its primacy as the main transportation fuel. Once that is done, oil is no longer a strategic commodity, the price falls, the petrostates are bankrupted, and a newly energy-independent U.S. zooms back to its position as the world’s undisputed sole superpower. Their rhetoric is so attractive that several members of Congress have introduced legislation that would require the production of flex-fuel cars. It’s a simple idea that betrays a near-complete ignorance of the world petroleum business.

See also Subsidies Index Europe and Persian Gulf, 51–52 wind power in, 226–227 European Union, 64, 290 and carbon dioxide emissions, 270–271, 275 oil reserves in, 68 Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, 75 Exxon Mobil, 80, 108, 110 Facioli, Sister Ines, 169 Fanon, Frantz, 263 FARC. See Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia Farm lobby, and ethanol, 187, 254 Fastow, Andrew, 162 Fatah, 55 Feinstein, Dianne, 281 Feith, Douglas, 120 FFV. See Flex-fuel vehicles Financial market, shift in, 244–245 First Iraq War, 23, 52, 55, 100, 103, 104, 238 Fischer, Franz, 215 Fischer-Tropsch technology, 215 Flex-fuel vehicles (FFV), 192–198, 259 Food, vs. ethanol, 158–162 Ford, Gerald, 1, 66 and coal-to-liquids, 214 and energy independence rhetoric, 100–101 Ford, Henry, 17 Ford, William Clay, Jr., 259 Foreign energy, assumptions about, 2 Fossil fuels, 8 and climate change, 43–44, 45 and energy density, 127–128 See also individual fuels Fourth generation warfare, 56–57 France, 19, 75, 250 Index Freeburg, Russell W., 32 Freedom from Oil: How the Next President Can End the United States’ Oil Addiction (Sandalow), 6 Freeman, S.


pages: 311 words: 17,232

Living in a Material World: The Commodity Connection by Kevin Morrison

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barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, commoditize, commodity trading advisor, computerized trading, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Elon Musk, energy security, European colonialism, flex fuel, food miles, Hernando de Soto, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Long Term Capital Management, new economy, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, price mechanism, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, young professional

A goal set at the launch of its ethanol programme, which was in response to the large Brazilian sugar stockpiles in the early 1970s (Sandalow, 2006) when the country’s industry was a smaller sugar producer than Fidel Castro’s Cuba.22 The US set a similar goal around the same time and is further away than ever from achieving this. The success of the Brazilian ethanol programme is down to the popularity of the flex-fuel cars, which are vehicles that can run on gasoline and other fuels, such as ethanol. Aided by favourable tax breaks, Brazilian drivers have quickly taken flex-fuel cars to the road. The flex-fuel car acts as a safety valve for fluctuating commodity prices. The driver of the flex-fuel car chooses the balance of the mix between the two fuels based on the relative price: if the sugar-ethanol price is higher than gasoline, then more gasoline will be chosen, which will, in turn, moderate the demand for sugar-based ethanol until supply catches up and prices fall.

(Comex) 255 Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) (US) 74, 253, 263 commodity indices 240–2 commodity market manipulation 245–7 Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) 238 Congo, copper in 201, 202, 210–11 | 293 Connaughton, James 29, 31 ConocoPhilips 57, 79 Conservation International 93 Continental Power Exchange (CPE) 257, 258 Cooke, Jay 198, 222 n. 18 copper 4, 9, 11 applications 187–90 Congo 201, 202, 210–11 cost 211–13, 214–17 demand 182–5 electrical applications 186–7 in electricity generation 194–5 history 185–6 prices 199–201, 222 n. 17 production 195–8, 199 recycling 183, 184–5 theft 179–82 trade 211–13 under-sea extraction 217 in vehicles 190–4 Copper Export Association 201 Copper Exporters Incorporated 201 Copper Producers’ Association 200 coralconnect.com 260 corn 68–84, 96–8, 98–9, 99–101 hybrids 101–3 GM 104–6 diversity 106–10 Corn Products 233 cotton 166 Countryside Alliance 146 credit crisis (2007) 7 Crocker, Thomas 138 Cruse, Richard 111 D1 Oils 57, 58, 59 Dabhol gas-fired power plant 35 Dales, John 138 Daly, Herman 136 Darwin, Charles 67 Davis, Adam 157 Davis, Miles 183 Day after Tomorrow, The 15 n. 1 De Angelis, Anthony ‘Tino’ 245 De Beers 200, 210 De Soto, Hernando 136 Deere, John 100 deforestation 87, 147 Dennis, Richard 237 Deripaska, Oleg 199 Deutsche Bank 246, 261 294 | INDEX Diamond, Jared 97 DiCaprio, Leonardo 130 Dimas, Stavros 160 distillers’ dried grains with solubles (DDGS) 81 Dittar, Thomas 231 Donchian, Richard 237–8 Donson, Harry 199 dot.com bubble 7, 14, 241, 243 Doud, Gregg 82, 83 Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index 240 Dresdner Kleinwort 47 Drexel Burnham Lambert 254 Dreyfus, Louis 89 Duke Energy 258 Dunavant, Billy 237 DuPont 102 E85 79 Ealet, Isabelle 259, 260 Earth Sanctuatires 157 Earth Summit Bali 142 Rio 1992 141 Ebay 38 Ecosystem Marketplace 157 Edison, Thomas 17, 95, 186 Ehrlich, Paul 13, 14, 16 n. 9 Population Bomb, The 14 Eisenhower, President 40 El Paso 258 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 153 electric vehicles 54, 191–3 11th Hour, The 130 Elf 261 Elton, Ben 135 Emissions Trading Program 139 Energy Information Administration (EIA) 38 Energy Policy Act 2005 (US) 28 energy security 28–9 Energy Security Act 1980 (US) 74 Enron 35, 164, 165, 213, 246, 257–64 Enron Online 213, 225 n. 40, 257, 258, 259 Environmental Protection Agency (US) 27, 62 n. 17, 75, 139 ethanol 69–70, 73–81, 92, 119 n. 6 see also biofuels Eurex 262 European Climate Exchange 146 European Union 142, 158, 160 Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) 185 Evelyn, John 127 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) 13, 270 Exxon 32, 50, 52, 261 ExxonMobil 13, 79, 242, 254 Faraday, Michael 186 Farm Credit Administration 76 farm debt crisis 114–15 farm payments 115–16 farm sinks 154–5 Fearnley-Whittingstall 86 Federal Bureau of Investigation 246 Federal Clean Water Act (US) 156 F-gases 131 Firewire 260 Fisher, Mark 266, 269 Fleming, Roddy 219 flex-fuel cars 92–3 Fonda, Jane 114 Food and Agricultural Organization 148, 159 Ford, Bill 267 Ford, President Gerald 30, 115 Ford, Henry 73, 95, 195 Fordlandia 195 forest economics 149–50 forestry carbon credits 147 forests 147–51 Forrest, Andrew 199 Forward Contracts (Regulations) Act 1952 (US) 249 Forward Markets Commission (FMC) 249 Four Winds Capital Management 149, 159, 184 Franklin, Benjamin 157 Freese, Barbara 27 Friedland, Robert 199 Frost Fairs 127 fuel cell vehicles 53, 192–3 Futures Inc. 237 futures trading 235–6, 245, 247–50 gas 21–2 Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) 61 n. 8 gasohol 73 gene shuffling 105 General Atlantic 267, 269 General Motors 53, 54, 191, 193 INDEX genetically modified organism (GMO) seeds 105–6 Glencore 199, 211 Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 148 Global Initiatives173 n. 28 Global Positioning Systems (GPS) 191 global warming 24–6, 75 Globex 267 glycerin 82 Golder and Associates 206 Goldman 255, 260, 261 Goldman Sachs 57, 146, 254, 259 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) 240, 241 Goldstein Samuelson 245 Google 37, 38 Gore, Al 16 n. 5, 28, 38, 126, 129, 143 Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) certificates 146 Grant, President Ulysses S. 214 Greenburg, Marty 269 greenhouse effect 131 greenhouse gas emissions 25, 131 see also carbon dioxide; nitrous oxide Greenspan, Alan 244 Gresham Investment Management 242, 243 Guggenheim brothers 197 Guttman, Lou 251, 255, 259 Hamanaka, Yasuo 246 Hanbury-Tension, Robin 146 Harding, President Warren 103 hedge funds 23640 Henry Moore Foundation 180, 181 Herfindahl, Orris 215, 226 n. 46 Heston, Charlton 15, n. 4 Hezbollah 46 Hi-Bred Corn Company 102 high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) 89–90 Highland Star 219 Hill, James Jerome 215 Homestead Act 1862 (US) 100 Honda 53 Howard, John 133, 171 n. 16 Hu Jintao, President 219 Hub, Henry 257 Humphries, Jon 181 Hunt Brothers 245 Hunter, Brian 246, 247 | 295 Hurricane Katrina 135 Hurricane Rita 134 Hussein, Saddam 48 hybrid cars 53 hydroelectric power 34 hydrogen cars 54 hypoxia zone 111 iAqua 165 IEA 32 IMF 16 n. 6 Inconvenient Truth, An 16 n. 5, 129 Indonesia palm oil 93–4 Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) 31–2 intelligent lighting 38 IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) 246, 261, 262, 265, 266, 267 Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries (CIPEC) 203, 204 International Bauxite Association (IBA) 203 International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) 144 International Commercial Exchange (ICE) 273 n. 15 International Copper Cartel 201 International Energy Agency (IEA) 19, 25, 26, 40, 140–1, 153, 194 International Monetary Fund 57 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (UN) 24, 132, 134, 147, 149, 170 n. 3 International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) 250, 256, 257, 262, 263, 264, 265 International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) 41 International Tin Council 203 International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture 107 Iowa Farm Bureau 36, 76, 155 Iowa Stored Energy Park 36 Japanese car market 18 Jardine Matheson 225 n. 40 Jarecki, Dr Henry 242, 243, 244 jatropha 57–9 Jefferson, Thomas 109 Jevons, William Stanley 20 Joint, Charles 181 296 | INDEX Joint Implementation (JI) 151 Jones, Paul Tudor 237, 238 Kabila, Joseph 210 Kanza, T.R. 211 Katanga of Congo 201, 225 n. 37 Kennecott Copper 199 Kennedy, Joseph (Joe) 264 Khosla Partners 38 Khosla, Vinod 37 Kitchen, Louise 258 Kleiner Perkins, Caufield & Byers 37 Kooyker, Willem 237, 238 Kovner, Bruce 237, 238 Krull, Pete 81 Kyoto Protocol 24, 27, 50, 140, 141, 142, 143, 147, 151, 169 n. 2, 194 clean development mechanism (CDM) 151 Lamkey, Kendall 112 Land and Water Resources, Inc. 155 Land Grant College Act (US) 101 Lange, Jessica 114 lead credits 172 n. 20 LED (light-emitting diodes) 38 Lehman brothers 241 Leiter, Joseph 245 Leopold II, King 210 Liebreich, Michael 39 Liffe 267 Lincoln, President Abraham 69, 100, 101, 119 n. 1 Lintner, Dr John 243 liquid coal 33–4 London Clearing House 263 London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (Liffe) 262 London Metal Exchange (LME) 16 n. 10, 43, 196, 204, 212, 213, 246 Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) 247 Louisiana Light Sweet 253 Lourey, Richard 166, 168 Lovelock, James 131 Lyme Timber Company, The 149 Mackintosh, John 232, 234, 270 Madonna 6 malaria 156 Malthus, Thomas 130 manure lagoons 154–5 Mao, Chairman 210 Markowitz, Harry 243 Marks, Jan 268 Marks, Michel 252, 253, 254, 268 Marks, Rebecca 164, 165 Mars, Forrest E., Jr 60 Matheson, Hugh 225 n. 40 Matif 262 McCain, John 80 McDonalds 89 Megatons to Megawatts programme 42 Melamed, Leo 249–50, 264 Mendel, Gregor (Johann) 102, 122 n. 30 Merrill Lynch 241, 246 Mesa Water 163–4 methane 128, 131, 152, 154 methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) 74 Microsoft 13 Midwestern Regional Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord 143 milk 88–9 Milken, Michael 254 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board 156 Mittal, Laskma 212 Mobile 261 Mocatta Metals 242 Monsanto 106, 108 Montéon, Michael 199 Montgomery, David 138 Moor Capital 237 Moore, Henry 179, 182 Morgan, J.P. 246 Morgan Stanley 254, 255, 259, 260, 261 Muir, John 125 Mulholland, William 162 Murphy, Eddie 256 Murray Darling Basin 165–6 Musk, Elon 38 Nabisco 238–9 Nanosolar 38 Nasdaq 262 Nassar, President 210 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 192 National Alcohol Programme (Brazil) 92 National Cattlemen’s Beef Association 82 National Commission on Supplies and Shortages (US) 7, 16 n. 5 National Corn Growers’ Association 80 National Energy Policy (US) 28 INDEX National Petroleum Council (NPC) 30, 50 National Security Space Office (NSSO) (US) 39 NCDEX 248, 249 Nelson, Willie 115 New Deal Farm Laws 103 New Deal for Agriculture 76, 89 New Energy Finance 39 New Farm and Forest Products Task Force 95 New York Board of Trade 240, 255 New York Cocoa Exchange 255 New York Coffee and Sugar Exchange 255 New York Cotton Exchange 237, 252, 255 New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) 43, 156, 246, 248, 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 256, 257, 261, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 269 New York Metal Exchange 226 n. 42 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) 198, 253, 255, 256, 264, 268, 270 Newman, Paul 265 Nicholson, Jack 162 nickel 217–18, 227 n. 50, 227 n. 52 nitrates 110–11 nitrogen oxide emissions 139 nitrous oxide 131, 139, 140, 152 Nixon, President 27, 30, 115, 231, 252 Noble Group 199 North, John Thomas 198, 199, 209 Norton, Gale 163 nuclear energy 34 nuclear power 21, 39–44 Nuexco Trading Corporation 42 Nybot 255, 256, 265 Obama, Barack 79, 80, 143 obesity 121 n. 19 O’Connor, Edmund 231 O’Connor, William 231 OECD 158, 159 oil 44–53 energy content 51–2 palm 93 prices 8–9, 10, 52–3 sands 49–50 shale 50–1, 64 n. 33 shocks 5, 7 soya 82 trading 250–5, 266 Oliver, Jamie 86 onion futures trading 245 | 297 Ontario Teachers’ Fund 244, 272 n. 8 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) 4, 9, 10, 22, 44–7, 203, 204, 251, 254 over-the-counter (OTC) trading 16 n. 8, 254–5 Owens Valley rape (1908) 162 Pachauri, Dr Rajendra K. 59 Page, Larry 38 Paley Commission 8 palm oil 93 Palmer, Fred 62 n. 14 Parthenon Capital 156, 267 PayPal 38 Peadon, Brian 165 perfluorocarbon 131 PGGM 244 Phaunos Timber Fund 149 Phelps Dodge 199 Phibro 254 Pickens, T.


pages: 520 words: 129,887

Power Hungry: The Myths of "Green" Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future by Robert Bryce

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Bernie Madoff, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cleantech, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Menlo Park, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment, Whole Earth Catalog

And that leads to another heretical notion: Increased ethanol use won’t cut oil imports. H. L. Mencken once remarked that there is always a “well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.” That quote comes to mind when considering the vocal group of politicos and neoconservatives who claim that the best way to cut American oil imports, and thereby impoverish the petrostates (and, in theory, reduce terrorism), is to require automakers to manufacture “flex-fuel” cars that can burn motor fuel containing 85 percent ethanol. (For more on this claim, and the people who are promoting it, see my book Gusher of Lies.) Their rationale is that using more ethanol made from corn, switchgrass, or other biomass will create competition in the motor fuel market and thereby depose oil as the world’s primary transportation fuel. Once that is done, they claim, oil will no longer be a strategic commodity; its price will fall, the petrostates will be bankrupted, and a newly energyindependent United States will race back to the head of the line as the world’s undisputed sole superpower.

Once that is done, they claim, oil will no longer be a strategic commodity; its price will fall, the petrostates will be bankrupted, and a newly energyindependent United States will race back to the head of the line as the world’s undisputed sole superpower. The rhetoric put forward by these underinformed-but-persistent sophomores has proved so irresistible that several members of Congress have introduced legislation aimed at requiring automakers to produce flex-fuel cars. Fortunately, none of their proposed bills have passed. The idea that ethanol provides a viable solution betrays a near-complete ignorance of the world petroleum business. The supposed solution fails because it only replaces part of the crude oil barrel. During the refining process, a barrel of crude yields several different “cuts,” ranging from light products such as butane to heavy products such as asphalt.

evolution of fuel efficiency of, increasing increased usage of, and the transition to oil See also Electric cars; Hybrid cars; Natural gas vehicles (NGVs); SUVs Babcock & Wilcox Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act Ban Ki-moon Barnett Shale Barton, Joe Bat Conservation International Batteries energy density of(fig.) technology of, issue with Belgium(fig.) Beller, Denis Benedict XVI (pope) Bethe, Hans Big Coal (Goodell) Bill Barrett Corporation Biofuels and deforestation See also Ethanol Biomass(fig.)(fig.) density of(fig.)(fig.) and flex-fuel cars footprint of(fig.) myth involving problems resulting from burning producing, from switchgrass, issues with See also Wood Birol, Faith Black carbon deposits and emissions Bolton, John Bonneville Power Administration Borneo Bottomless Well, The (Huber and Mills) BP BP Statistical Review of World Energy Bradley, Robert L., Jr. Brand, Stewart Brazil(fig.) carbon dioxide emissions of(fig.)

Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics by Francis Fukuyama

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Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, energy security, flex fuel, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John von Neumann, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Norbert Wiener, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, The Wisdom of Crowds, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Yom Kippur War

The United States and other major oil-consuming countries are well endowed with a variety of energy resources, including coal (the United States has a quarter of the world’s total reserves); agricultural, municipal, and industrial waste; dedicated energy crops; nuclear power; and solar and wind power. All of these energy sources can play a role in the transportation system as part of what might be called a “fuel choice” strategy. The key to fuel choice is the deployment of multifuel vehicle technologies that are readily available and compatible with the nation’s current energy infrastructure. One key technology is the flex-fuel vehicle. This feature, which adds only $150 to the cost of a new car, enables the use of any combination of gasoline and alcohols such as ethanol and methanol. About six million such cars are already on America’s roads. In Brazil, where ethanol is widely used, the share of new car sales that have fuel flexibility has risen from 4 percent to 67 percent in just three years. Where will the fuel come from?

If all cars on the road by 2025 are either diesels burning some nonpetroleum fuel or flexible and plug-in hybrid vehicles, U.S. oil consumption would drop by as much as twelve million barrels a day. Oil would face competition at the pump with other energy sources, which should serve to dampen its strategic value, enabling America to regain control over its foreign policy and reduce its vulnerability to an energy catastrophe. A nationwide deployment of flex-fuel cars, plug-in hybrids, and alternative fuels could take place within two decades. But such a transformation will not occur by itself. In a perfect world government would not need to intervene in the energy market, but in a time of war, the United States is taking an unacceptable risk by leaving the problem to be solved by the invisible hand. This is especially true since the energy market is anything but free.

See Foreign direct investment Federal agencies: for energy innovation, 67–69; scientific, 62–63. See also specific agencies Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), in Homeland Security Department, 13–14 Federal Reserve, U.S.: on East Asian economy, 45–46; on U.S. economy, 51 FEMA. See Federal Emergency Management Agency Feminism, 133 Fidler, David, 88 Filters, information, 99–100 Financial crisis. See East Asian economic crisis Fischer-Tropsch, 77 Flex-fuel vehicles, 78–81 Flu. See Influenza Fogel, Robert William, 103 FOIA. See Freedom of Information Act Ford, Henry, 24–25 Ford Motor Company, 25 Forecasting, technological, limits of, 5 Foreign direct investment (FDI), in East Asia, 46, 49 Foreign policy, U.S.: energy dependence influencing, 75–76; religious belief and, 168; scenarios for, 153–68 France: demographics of, after World War I, 130, 132; future strategic surprises in, 107–08 Freedom, liberation of, 134 Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), 30 Frequencies vs. probabilities, 9 Friedman, Benjamin, 137, 138 Fuel(s): alternative, 78–81; efficiency standards for, 77; petroleum as, 26–27, 76–77 index Fuel choice strategy, 78–80 Fundamentalism.


pages: 522 words: 144,511

Sugar: A Bittersweet History by Elizabeth Abbott

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agricultural Revolution, Bartolomé de las Casas, British Empire, flex fuel, land tenure, liberation theology, Mason jar, Ralph Waldo Emerson, spinning jenny, strikebreaker, trade liberalization, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, women in the workforce, working poor

When the price of gas declined, so did the sale of alcohol-fueled cars; by the end of the 1990s, they amounted to less than 1 percent of total automobile sales. To protect themselves against changes in sugar and gas prices, exchange rates and government policies, Brazilians have turned to flex-fueled vehicles such as Fiat, Chevrolet, Ford, Renault and Peugeot cars, the Volkswagen TotalFlex Golf and the Saab biofueled car. (A century ago, Henry Ford introduced the Model T, the first flex-fueled car: it ran on either gas or ethanol.) These men are likely prouder of their Model T’s sporty style after its conversion from a roundabout body than they are of its flex-fuel capacity—it can use either gas or ethanol as fuel, c. 1910. Brazil’s sugar industry is both efficient and exploitative, relying on streamlined technology and underpaid cane workers to produce cane cheaply.

Requiring that gas contain at least 25 percent ethanol ensures a regular and affordable fuel supply and supports the huge sugar industry; about half of Brazilian sugar is transformed into ethanol, and most of the rest is exported, making Brazil the world’s largest sugar exporter, ahead of the European Union. In a world where “development” implies the right to a car, the automotive and fuel industries are a married couple that must find ways to coexist. In Brazil, their common interests are facilitated by having flex-fuel and uni-fuel cars cost the same, and consumer confidence in the future availability of ethanol raises the resale value of flexcars. Although fueling a car requires significantly more ethanol than gas, ethanol’s cheaper price makes it the better buy. Brazil’s successful embrace of cane-derived ethanol fuel has much more than economic benefits to commend it. Although Brazilian cane production is notoriously destructive to the environment, cane-derived fuel is precisely the opposite.


pages: 421 words: 120,332

The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith

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Bretton Woods, BRICs, clean water, Climategate, colonial rule, deglobalization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, flex fuel, global supply chain, Google Earth, guest worker program, Hans Island, hydrogen economy, ice-free Arctic, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, land tenure, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Y2K

The biggest appeal of biofuels, therefore, is that they offer a domestic or alternative liquid-fuel source to oil, and potentially less greenhouse gas emission, depending on how efficiently the biofuel can be produced. The most common biofuel today is ethanol made from corn (in the United States), sugarcane (Brazil), and sugar beets (European Union). Making ethanol is essentially the ancient art of fermenting sugars to make alcoholic drinks, meaning that corn-based car fuel is very similar to moonshine. It is commonly mixed with gasoline, and in Brazil, cars run on flex-fuel mixtures containing up to 100% ethanol. Ethanol has higher octane than gasoline and for this reason was used in early racing cars. In fact, when cars were first being developed about a century ago, their makers strongly considered fueling them with ethanol. 123 The world’s two largest ethanol producers are the United States and Brazil, together producing more than ten billion gallons per year.

See also specific countries: and aboriginal peoples; and aging populations; and agriculture; and climate change; and crop yields; and demographic trends; European Community; European Space Agency; European Union; and global warming; and urbanization; and water resources exclusive economic zones (EEZs) extinction of species Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) fertility rates Finland: and aboriginal peoples; and the Arctic Council; and Arctic resources; and demographic trends; economy of; and human settlement patterns; and immigration policy; and the “New North,” and NORC collaborations; and territorial boundaries; and UNCLOS; and winter roads Finnmark Act fisheries flex-fuel vehicles flooding Florida food supplies. See also agriculture Ford, Gerald Foreign Affairs Fort McMurray, Alberta Fortier, Louis fossil fuels. See also specific fuel types Fourier, Joseph France Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria free trade Frey, Karen Friedman, Thomas fuel-cell cars fur trade FutureGen Gaddy, Clifford Gandy, Matthew Gautier, Catherine Gautier, Don Gaza General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) General Motors Corporation genetics Geographic Information System (GIS) geography geology George III, geothermal power Germany: and aging populations; and demographic trends; and economic growth models; and immigration; and North Pole expeditions; and shifting economic power; and water resources; and wind power Ghawar oil field Ghesquiere, Henri Glacier National Park glaciers: and global warming; and lakes; and permafrost; and sea levels; and water resources Gleick, Peter Glen Canyon Dam Glennon, Robert global warming.


pages: 249 words: 73,731

Car Guys vs. Bean Counters: The Battle for the Soul of American Business by Bob Lutz

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corporate governance, creative destruction, currency manipulation / currency intervention, flex fuel, medical malpractice, Ponzi scheme, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, shareholder value, Steve Jobs, Toyota Production System, transfer pricing, Unsafe at Any Speed, upwardly mobile

Davis,Tom Delphi Dennis, Lyle Devine, John diesel engines Dodge Trucks Durant, Billy Earl, Harley economic value electric vehicles aerodynamics and EV1 Nissan Leaf see also hybrid vehicles End of Detroit, The: How the Big Three Lost Their Grip on the American Car Market (Maynard) Estes, Pete EV1 excellence Exide Technologies Federico, Jim Ferrari Fiat Fields, Mark financial crisis of auto industry bailout congressional automotive hearings Ford and GM’s bankruptcy stimulus and subprime mortgage disaster Ford Escape Explorer financial crisis and Flex fuel rules and Lincoln media and Mercury trucks and SUVs of Ford of Europe camshaft problem and Escort Sierra Franz, Klaus Friedman,Thomas fuel cells fuel economy regulations fuel prices Fuji Heavy Industries gasoline prices Gates, Bill GCG General Motors (GM): advertising by alliance strategy of APEX process at apologetic ad produced by Asia-Pacific operations of Australian operations of, see Holden automation at Automotive Task Force and bankruptcy of best practices at brand management at brand pyramids at brands shed by brand studios at culture of excellence at decline of design department of European operations of; see also Opel; Saab;Vauxhall exaggerated respect for authority at federal “ownership” of financial offices of fuel economy regulations and global integration of health care costs of history of Jobs Bank and Latin American operations of Lutz’s departure from Lutz’s hypothetical tenure as CEO of Lutz’s memo circulated in Lutz’s return to manufacturing standards at media and meetings at North American division of Perceptual Quality Program Review at Performance Management Process at product clinics at product development at product portfolio of rebirth of regional “companies” of strategy board meetings at Tech Center of vehicle line executives at General Motors vehicles: ashtrays in body fit of body paint on electric front-wheel drive in Global Epsilon architecture in interiors of prototypes of trucks wheels and tires of German automakers fuel rules and Gettelfinger, Ron global warming GMAC (General Motors Acceptance Corporation) GMC Terrain XUV Gonko, Betty Gore,Al grade-point averages Guts (Lutz) Harbour Report Hazen, Jack health care Henderson, Fritz “hider” design techniques Holden Honda Accord Acura CR-V Horn, Art Hudson Hummer hybrid vehicles Chevrolet Volt parallel vs. sequential Toyota Prius hydrogen fuel cells Iacocca, Lee federal loan guarantees and media and Inconvenient Truth, An Insolent Chariots, The (Keats) Isuzu Jaguar Japanese automakers alliances with CEOs of currency manipulation and fuel rules and health care and quality surveys and standardized work and truck and SUV market and voluntary restraint agreement and Jeep jets, corporate Jobs, Steve Jobs Bank Kady,Wayne Keats, John Korthoff, Douglas Land Rover LaSalle Lauckner, Jon leadership styles Lexus LG Chem Limbaugh, Rush lithium-ion batteries Lutz, Robert A.: departure from GM Guts hypothetical tenure as CEO of GM media and memo of motto of return to GM strongly held beliefs of Magna Corporation Mair,Alex management by objective management styles Marine Attack Squadron Mavroleon, Mano Maynard, Micheline Mazur, Dave McDonald, Jim McNamara, Robert media global warming and GM and Lutz and Saab and SUVs and Mercedes-Benz metal finishing military strategy Miller, Steve mission statement Mitchell, Bill Mitsubishi mortgages Mulally, Alan Nader, Ralph Nardelli, Bob Nash Nesbitt, Bryan New York Times Niedermeyer, Edward Nissan Armada Leaf Titan North American International Auto Show Norton, Andy NUMMI (New United Motorcar Manufacturing Company) Obama, Barack Oldsmobile Opel Antara Astra cost-cutting at Dudenhofen Proving Ground of Insignia metal finishing and midsize car program of selling of Vectra Zafira Packard Packard,Vance Paine, Chris Palmer, Jerry Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance Piëch, Ferdinand PMP (Performance Management Process) Pontiac, Aztek Firebird G6 G8 V6 and V8, Grand Prix GTO Solstice Vibe PQPR (Perceptual Quality Program Review) Prechter, Heinz process religion product development at GM product portfolio creation Queen, Jim Range Rover Rattner, Steven Reilly, Nick ResCap Reuss, Mark Roche, Jim Rybicki, Irv Saab Saturn Aura Ion Vue science, business as Shelby, Richard Sloan, Alfred P.


pages: 257 words: 94,168

Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths by Steven M. Gorelick

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California gold rush, carbon footprint, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, income per capita, invention of the telephone, meta analysis, meta-analysis, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, statistical model, Thomas Malthus

Made by Tesla Motors, Inc. in California, one highperformance electric sports car, which sells for $110,000, can travel over 150 miles on a single-night’s charge.45 The company has unveiled a sedan starting at $56,000 with an expected range of 160 to 300 miles per charge, depending on the selected battery option.46 Daimler plans to use Tesla’s battery pack in its future electric Smart car, which is bound to be more moderately priced.47 Companies touting electric vehicles have generated enthusiasm over the years, but the industry remains limited by a viable battery technology and business model (i.e., producing cars at a price that masses of drivers can afford) – issues reminiscent of the Electric Vehicle Company of 1897. The virtue of battery-powered electric cars is that electric motors are very efficient. In fact, they are about three times more efficient than internal combustion engines in equivalent small SUVs for highway driving. Electricity is the ultimate flex-fuel and can be produced by combustion of a variety of fuel-stocks. It is estimated that an acre of switchgrass (a fast-growing, perennial, tall prairie grass) used as a fuel to co-produce electricity at power plants could increase travel distance by 56 percent compared with converting that same cellulosic biomass to ethanol and using it directly as a transportation fuel.48 Technological advances in battery technology will be key to ushering Beyond Panic 215 in the era of the electric car.


pages: 323 words: 89,795

Food and Fuel: Solutions for the Future by Andrew Heintzman, Evan Solomon, Eric Schlosser

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agricultural Revolution, Berlin Wall, big-box store, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate social responsibility, David Brooks, deindustrialization, distributed generation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, flex fuel, full employment, half of the world's population has never made a phone call, hydrogen economy, land reform, microcredit, Negawatt, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment

It was, ironically, made from the very crop grown on the farms Ford so hated: corn. In other words, the dawn of the mass production of cars and the mass production of food were intimately intertwined, and have remained that way since. By 1906, Ford founded his own automobile company and that year, when Congress finally repealed the liquor tax, he announced that ethanol was the fuel of the future. His famous Model T was the first flex-fuel car, designed to run on a mixture of gasoline and ethanol, very much like the cars coming off the Ford plant in Dearborn today. A century later, Henry Ford’s ethanol revolution is actually happening. The record-high, volatile oil prices, combined with concerns over energy security and climate change, have made ethanol once again a popular fuel. Politicians of all stripes, including President Barack Obama, are open supporters of the idea that America can grow its energy.


pages: 363 words: 101,082

Earth Wars: The Battle for Global Resources by Geoff Hiscock

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Admiral Zheng, Asian financial crisis, Bakken shale, Bernie Madoff, BRICs, butterfly effect, clean water, cleantech, corporate governance, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, energy security, energy transition, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, flex fuel, global rebalancing, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, Long Term Capital Management, Malacca Straits, Masdar, mass immigration, megacity, Menlo Park, Mohammed Bouazizi, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Panamax, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, trade route, uranium enrichment, urban decay, working-age population, Yom Kippur War

It will change the relative economics of low-carbon technology versus high carbon technology, and not just in China.”11 Interest in Biofuel Aside from power-generating renewables, there is massive interest in biofuel for transportation, particularly in Brazil and the United States, the two biggest producers of ethanol. Brazil has a thriving sugarcane-based ethanol industry to fuel its automobiles, with at least 12 global makers—VW, Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault, Peugeot, Citroen, Fiat, and Kia—offering flex-fuel models for the Brazilian market that are capable of running on any blend of gasoline and ethanol. In the United States, pioneering automaker Henry Ford was an early advocate of biofuel, with some of his Model T Fords capable of running on ethanol as well as petrol or kerosene. Under U.S. energy security legislation, by 2022 at least 36 billion gallons (136 billion litres) of fuel used in the United States must come from renewable sources.


pages: 262 words: 83,548

The End of Growth by Jeff Rubin

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Ayatollah Khomeini, Bakken shale, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, deglobalization, energy security, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, flex fuel, full employment, ghettoisation, global supply chain, Hans Island, happiness index / gross national happiness, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, illegal immigration, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, labour mobility, McMansion, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, new economy, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce, working poor, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

n=pet&s=mttimusve2&f=a) this page: The figure for the number of licensed American drivers comes from the US Federal Highway Administration, an agency within the Department of Transportation (www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/onh2p4.htm). this page: The number of Alternative Fuel Vehicles calculated by the Department of Transportation doesn’t include hybrid electric vehicles or flexible fuel vehicles that run on an ethanol blend of less than E85. According to data from Wards, the cumulative number of hybrids sold in the United States surpassed 2 million in 2011. The Department of Energy says there are more than 8 million flex fuel vehicles on US roads, although many owners are unaware their vehicles have this capability. Most of the 2,400 fueling stations that offer E85 are located in the corn belt in the Midwest. this page: According to the International Energy Agency’s discussion of subsidies in its World Energy Outlook 2011, Iran and Saudi Arabia lead the world in fossil fuel subsidies. According to the IEA, fuel subsidies are most prevalent in the developing world.


pages: 379 words: 108,129

An Optimist's Tour of the Future by Mark Stevenson

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23andMe, Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, augmented reality, bank run, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, clean water, computer age, decarbonisation, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, flex fuel, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hans Rosling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Leonard Kleinrock, life extension, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, off grid, packet switching, peak oil, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, the scientific method, Wall-E, X Prize

There’d be no need to radically re-engineer our transport infrastructure as would be necessary in shifting to hydrogen-powered or electric vehicles. Already there are eight million ‘flexible fuel vehicles’ on American roads that can run on a gasoline/ethanol blend (many are ‘E85’ vehicles that can run on blends of up to eighty-five per cent ethanol and fifteen per cent gasoline). General Motors has cautiously committed ‘to making 50 per cent of production flex-fuel capable’ by 2012. Ford, Chrysler and Toyota all offer E85 cars. In fact, Ford is returning to its roots – its famous Model T, which went into production in 1908, could run on ethanol, gasoline, or a blend of both. So why not fuel made from CO2 taken out of the sky? Already we have working technologies that can take CO2 from the air and organisms that can turn CO2 into liquid fuels. Klaus may not prevail; Joule might fail; Algenol might be a flash in a pan.


pages: 537 words: 158,544

Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order by Parag Khanna

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Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, call centre, capital controls, central bank independence, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, complexity theory, continuation of politics by other means, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, flex fuel, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global supply chain, haute couture, Hernando de Soto, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, Islamic Golden Age, Khyber Pass, knowledge economy, land reform, low skilled workers, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, Monroe Doctrine, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, open economy, Parag Khanna, Pax Mongolica, Pearl River Delta, pirate software, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, Potemkin village, price stability, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, South China Sea, special economic zone, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Thomas L Friedman, trade route, trickle-down economics, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce

As a country nearly synonymous with the word environment, Brazil’s innovative energy strategy complements its development strategy—and both are working. Brazil’s investments in modern extraction technology are elevating Petrobras’s oil output almost to heavyweight Venezuela’s level. Despite its energy self-sufficiency, it is also enriching uranium to power nuclear plants. Most impressively, Brazil has planted and converted enough sugarcane into clean-burning ethanol to become its largest producer and exporter. The flex-fuel cars that run on it are appearing everywhere. But ethanol production is owned by wealthy families and conglomerates, while poor farmers still hack the sugarcane with machetes. Cities such as Curitiba and Porto Alegre have become models for the world—whether first, second, or third—in environmental management with their bold and efficient mass transit and recycling projects, earning comparisons to such paragons of civic planning as Norway.